Now with Congress in stalemate, DT can build on the precedent established by my the previous occupant of the White House, the constitutional scholar and legislate as well as administer with his phone and pen. Won’t that be jolly.
Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander, and they both go to the butcher
1
Did someone say the Democrats won by 3 million votes in the Senate despite losing control, owing to gerrymandering? So like Queensland in the Joh Bjelke-Petersen era! All that corruption was supposed to disappear after the Fitzgerald Enquiry nearly put Joh in prison. It didn't, as the Heiner Affair and the continuing anomaly of our having only one House of Parliament have demonstrated. It is so bad in Queensland that the Governor is widely discussed for less than salubrious behaviour, yet he and his cohort of deviant supporters remain unchallenged, with him being a former Chief Justice AND Chairman of the Anglican Diocese of Brisbane. How's that for separation of powers? You guys have a big advantage over us; freedom of speech is real in your country. Here, the media is controlled by Murdoch and my comments often close down comments sections.
“Trump critics on the right will feel a little better than O.K., since now the House can check and investigate our morally challenged president while the Senate keeps confirming conservative judges.”
Like your cohort Bruni said: “Whew!”
Mostly agree with you Ross but you're assuming your favored conclusion on the moderate v liberal candidate results. The moderate and the liberal had essentially equivalent results in Florida, and the moderate in TN did worse than the liberal in GA. Liberal Beto did better than any moderate Dem in TX in a generation at least. Moderate in WV did well but the ones in other "Red" states like ND, IN, etc less so. The problem there may not be that they're too liberal, but instead that they haven't convinced enough voters that liberal is ok on the state level. More down ballot progressive candidates winning and governing is the answer to that, not moderating of position. And yet Pelosi and Feinstein, moderates in all but Republican messaging, won handily in liberal strongholds.
What does that all say to you? I feel that we have some different conclusions here, personally.
1
The divide is now rural versus urban and suburban.
Another columnist says Democrats must alter their appeal to the rural voter otherwise elections going forward will continue to look like this one.
If the typical "rural" voter is white, Christian, middle class, owns guns, has a high school education, and appears suspicious of other races, what is the appeal the Democrats should pursue?
Altruism. Peace, love, and understanding? Tell them blacks aren't bad people? And Mexicans aren't rapists? And they can keep their guns and maybe buy more? That our Jewish brothers and sisters have long contributed to making America great?
You see the absurdity. Trump appealed to their darkest instincts and it worked. Even though he applied tariffs that are actually hurting farmers.
It would seem education is the key. But if more rural kids go to college and get a valued degree it is likely they will end up in cities and the folks back home will continue as is.
It's a conundrum. With no easy solution.
5
The map tells the story.
The Democrats have the coastal cocktail-circuit elitists, the big urban areas, and the poorest of the deep South.
And, nothing else.
They couldn't care less about the rest of the nation because their agenda is based on preserving and enlarging voting support instead of moving the nation forward.
And that shows in the voting results as well.
My suspicion is that the House Democrats will be unable to restraing themselves and they will resume their gleeful and spiteful attacks on Trump and his supporters.
And so, in 2020, look for those areas that flipped from red to blue, to flip right back again when everyone's suspicions are confirmed.
The Democrats are happy to do the old "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" routine when their recent record is brough to light.
So, to remind, the net effect of Obama was the loss of 64 House seats to the Republicans in 2010.
That, is what a wave looks like.
And it will be back liek a tsunami, because the Democrat leadership are who they are, and decline to change.
1
If you want to get past "stalemate" on abortion policy, here's a proposal you can take to your Republican buddies:
"Pro-life" means that in addition to opposing women's right to reproductive self-determination, you are required, by law, to adopt an unwanted child at birth, personally raise it to age 18 (no nannies, no trophy wives doing the work for you), and provide appropriate post-secondary job training or a college education. Also, this is not a designer baby situation: you have to adopt and care for whatever child the state assigns you.
Offer that as as a corollary to Republican abortion policy and you'll be hit by a pro-choice blue tsunami next election season, and then we could use this new point of consensus as a foundation from which we could focus on real issues like slowing climate change and wealth redistribution.
Really, it boggles the mind that with all the problems in the world you and your ilk are forcing women to fight this battle. It's simple: don't require women to have abortions; don't deny them the right to have abortions; let each woman make her own choice. That's the moderate, centrist, sensible Democratic position, and it is perfectly compatible with traditional Republican principles as well--maximizing individual freedom, minimizing government intrusion into private life, etc.
I say this as someone who is personally moderate on social issues, but it disappoints me that there is no voice in the Democratic Party who sees a pathway back to the majority through coming to the center on social issues.
The Democrats are the party of abortion on demand, unconditional race-based affirmative action, mandatory participation in gay weddings for Christian dissenters, and a fiscal strangulation of religious schools (while Democratic politicians never send their own kids to public school)
Even before Trump appeared as a politician, Democratic celebrities ceaselessly and unapologetically mocked rural Americans, especially Southerners.
That's a very effective strategy to alienate >45% of the country.
9
@In NJ
Anyone who is not a supporter of the radical progressive left, is deplorable.
A good strategy, huh ?
Life in a fishbowl must be nice.
@In NJ, you say you are moderate, but your language on the issues that you mention says otherwise. Take abortion for example: you characterize our position as abortion on demand. We see it as the right of an individual to counsel with her medical provider in order to make a decision, including family members and religious advisers as she feels appropriate. We see it as entirely inappropriate for other people who have different religious teachings, to demand participation in this decision making. We find it equally objectionable for the state to interfere.
Your viewpoint may see abortion is a murder. This view is not shared widely in our society, and therefor cannot reasonably be legislated. It is appropriate to debate this issue, but until we reach a consensus, it is manifestly unfair for one group to force its views on the rest of us.
I could take issue with your other topics is room permitted.
8
Hopefully, the Democrats/Mueller uncover half the dirt we believe there is in Trump's past. A repudiation of Trump the man, is the only remedy to Trumpism. His long term association with the Russians, his long term man crush on Putin, and his reliance on bullying creditors are the history we can see. Hopefully, the history we can't see will be the end of the fantasy.
After being humbled by faulty issue prioritization and the resulting candidate underperformance in yesterday’s midterm elections, the party must now find a way to fend off ambitious House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California’s 12th congressional district who imprudently announced yesterday that she is the Democrat who is “best fit” for the House Speaker position, a position she held from 2007 to 2011. If Democrats again elect Ms. Pelosi to the post, they will have demonstrated that they deserve minority political party status.
1
Funny, in the many years of my lifetime when we had a Democratic President and often a Democratic Congress as well, I don't ever remember anyone complaining about how our CONSTITUTION set up the state's representation in the US Senate. No resentment of the Dakotas or other states with small populations. No, this started a bit when Bush beat Gore in the first election, disappeared and re-emerged in 2016.
If you don't like our system of government as established by the US Constitution, amend it by those rules also stated in the Constitution. But don't count on the support of all those less populous states who have no desire or intention to just pass over their own interests to those on the East and West coasts who "just know better" than they do, what the country needs.
If you don't like it, move elsewhere if they'll have you. The Constitution has served us well for the past 231 years.
As for gerrymandering....well, it's been around for a LONG time. This is not something Trump just dreamed up. And it's been used equally by Democrats and Republicans. Get over it.
3
Uhh reality check people, who was expecting it to be different from what happened last night. House was going to go for Democrats and Senate for Republicans. Sure some surprises along the way but some are always expected. At least there is some check against passing laws without due process.
All in all, not bad America!
2
Calling trump and the republicans is a populists is a sham. There is nothing in their policies that is for the people. Once the supreme court starts implementing the radical policies of the Federalist society conservative little folk will see their freedoms erode. The role of the government will be so restricted that fighting for clean water and air, universal education, much less health care will be very difficult. The US is becoming an oligarchy run by rich people and corporations who will continue to write the rules in their favor. The concept of a principled conservative is gone with the dinosaurs. They are so afraid of any thing that has a hint is socialism (or the public good) they have sold their souls to the moneyed elite.
3
Ross, I never bought into the 2018 blue wave theory.
The real blue wave is coming in 2020 - and that wave will put at least a temporary end to both stalemate and conservative governance.
My question is: will Democrats understand how to nourish that wave going forward - or will it stall out again in 2022, due to Democratic messaging incompetence and legislative folly, as did our previous wave in 2010.
The GOP cannot govern at present - yet the ideas that you represent are anathema to it. The oligarchs who control the party by the purse strings only care about low taxes and gutting regulations, they don't care about gay marriage or women's reproductive health, and they least of all care about the health of our once noble American experiment.
They only care about the money - and Trump is one of them (or would like to be).
If you want to keeps the oligarchs from distorting the direction of your party, and restore a measure of luster to our American experiment, then you have to join us in getting the money completely out of politics.
14
"Not to be ruled by liberalism" Liberalism had a stake put through its heart by progressives. Ask Alan Dershowitz (an actual liberal). Liberals were live and let live. Progressives are do as we say, use only approved words or our armies of SJWs will hound you and get you fired.
3
Jeff Sessions resigned so the malignant toddler in the WH can appoint a new attorney general.
The House Democrats may make a deal with the devil: If Trump goes very, very slowly in nominating new judges, the House Democrats will go very, very slowly in investigating Trump.
Of course the House Democrats need to proceed with investigations of Trump, particularly of his tax returns, examined microscopically for evidence that he is owned by Putin.
But they should not impeach him; I do not believe that a sitting President cannot be indicted... one absolute in the United States is that no one is above the law. A Mueller impaneled Grand Jury indicting Donald Trump for treason is all that is necessary to bring this country to its senses.
Dan Kravitz
Yesterday's election results ended in a stalemate primarily because the Democrats are still unable to defeat Trump and his populism. Sure, they won back the House, but that is the more the consequence of Trump harming himself through rhetorical excess. Basing electoral success on antipathy toward Trump won't win Democrats the White House two years from now, and it behooves them to realize this immediately.
For Democrats, the future is now given that that the 2020 election provides them opportunities for fame and infamy. If they can defeat Trump and repudiate his populism, Democrats can give the world an example of American exceptionalism, given how right wing populism is globally ascendant. Conversely, if Trump's populism becomes a fixture on America's political landscape, it will signify an indictment against the Democratic parties for decades to come, if not a century.
"No: Democrats obviously want to win purple and red Senate seats, but they want to win them the way they just lost in Texas, with charisma and mobilization rather than with ideological compromise. So they’re left waiting, as before, for demography or a recession to deliver them that opportunity."
With whom do the Democrats seek compromise? The one or two center-right candidates still breathing in the Senate? The mythical "centrist independent" voter who is always there, awaiting to vote for the sane and sound candidate?
And where should they compromise? Abortion? Civil rights? Taxes? Gun control? Healthcare? Show me where any Republicans who will be in power after January 1 are willing to compromise on any of these issues?
Compromise requires movement on both sides. Far too often when Ross uses the word he only expects the left to move towards the center. Then, just as reliably, his party will move further to the right.
There comes a time when a political party must draw a line in the sand and say "here, and no farther". The GOP did that back in the 70s with the ascendance of the Religious Right. The Democrats need to go purchase a spine and make a similar statement. Otherwise they all will end up looking like Joe Manchin.
4
"without finding way to turn a popular-vote advantage into the Senate majority that, no matter how unjust liberals increasingly find the existence of the Senate"
Mr. Douthat needs to take a course in U.S. Civics. Unlike the House, only 1/3 of Senators run for office every two years. This was an unlucky year for Democrats, since several of the Democratic Senators in the 1/3 were from Red States. This will change in 2 years, when many more Republican Senators will be up for re-election. This newspaper (I assume you read it) has an interesting article w/graphics that shows the leftward shift in the overwhelming majority of Congressional districts. What could account for that? How about the actuarial facts that Republican voters are on average much older/have shorter life expectancy than Democratic voters:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-life-expectancy-election-idUSKCN1B22DI. Having voters with a shorter lifespan is not a good sign for the longevity of a political party.
1
The divisiveness promoted by Republicans and Fox will continue -- it provides lots of entertainment for the "reality" game show obsessed base, and motivates them to send more money to the most strident and hateful of the bunch.
Florida has devolved into another southeastern red state but perhaps electoral votes can be found in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and even Ohio to counteract its influence on the presidential elections.
Of note is that many more states are now trifecta Democratic states, including New York which will be prosecuting and suing Trump and his family and friends for years to come.
1
You don’t actually have “consent of the governed” if you lie and cheat and keep people from voting in order to win.
When are we finally going to admit that many Republicans, including the current president, are not legitimately in power?
4
No matter how Democrats spin it, they lost big last night. As I feared and predicted, my beloved party underperformed because they stubbornly, selfishly and stupidly refuse to embrace the economic justice agenda to increase the wealth and income of the millions of Americans in the middle and lower classes who have been left behind in this gilded 1% economy. The party leadership has refused to do so because they are rich elites who have become wealthy by our government’s long fascination with supply-side economics. They are not ignorant men and women. They are merely compromised. We need new progressive leadership at the Democratic National Committee and in the U,S. Congress.
1
It depends how the Dems handle this. I don't think there is a name for trumps's politics. It's mainly chaos. Chaos is not a policy. I doubt if Ol'Mitch will allow any progressive policies through the Senate but the House should keep trying especially with the wind at their back.
More and more people will see how unbalanced Trump is and that his way of governing not only will wreck our environment and health care etc. etc.. His bully personality and sheer disinterest in running the country after a 1950's model will keep drawing progressives who want to live in the 21st century out to vote him out.
Only then will the swamp/sewer be cleaned out.
"There is no conservative governing agenda at the moment;"
Exactly so. What is there plan to lower healthcare costs - there isn't one. How are they going to solve the immigration problem - building a wall is a really dumb idea and does nothing about the 11 million illegals already living here. How about education and reducing college costs - nothing. Where are the great new trade agreements - the trade imbalance continues to grow under Trump. When/where will the next slaughter with an assault rifle occur? Is their a plan for climate change - not until they stop denying it. How about the tax cut and the great economy - the trajectory of the economy has not changed since Obama left office, but the budget deficit has exploded. How about our international standing in the world community - the president is the butt of jokes world wide, except for Saudi Arabia, who assassinate journalists with whom they disagree. How about rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure - can't raise the gas tax to pay for it. Oh, I almost forgot the good part about the appointment of all those conservative judges - who if you have paid any attention represent the views of less than half the voters. Boy, that ought to turn out well in a country that thinks it is a representative democracy.
@W.A. Spitzer 11 million illegals? Yale said there were likely 20 million. The Dems want them to be able to vote too.
i would take a stalemate over minority rule any day of the week.
2
Ok as far as it goes, this column, but I think the under-current is that dems are winning on the issues.
What's happening in Kansas and Wisconsin? Did badgers figure out that liberal neighbor Minny was doing so much better because Wisconsin had bought the Koch Bros. XXX Snake Oil? Did Kansans decide that Gov. Brownquack's tax cut medicine was toxic?
1
Despite the Dems gains, Trump can still profit. It's likely he doesn't really want to go the whole route with this wall with Mexico promise: it's complicated and expensive. The Democrats' getting it defeated or frustrated offers him an escape.
1
Mueller hasn't spoken yet but hopefully soon. Two years of chaos and Ross still doesn't get it.
We need a standoff much, much more than we need an ignorant president without a check or a balance. The wisdom of the founders becomes painfully obvious when what they wrote is as perverted as trump has done.
1
For Mr Douthat, as usual, compromise must always come from the left of center, and like many “conservative” Catholics and other apparent Christians, morality is based solely on their stand on the right to legal abortion. Everything else is easily overlooked, especially if it relates to business or profit. And please must we have another pitch for his favorite catholic Ms. Barrett?
3
The moral arc of the universe may be too long for our planet.
2
What the writer is suggesting with this opinion piece is
"be more like the racists and misogynists in my party, if you want their votes."
I'll pass, and I can sleep at night.
3
Hopefully the newly emboldened racists will see this as pushback, and we can get back to fighting over policy issues between the 40-60 yard lines.
Time to hold this corrupt, racist and incompetent “president” accountable. Let’s start with his tax returns.
3
Describing democrats as hysterical is a misogynistic dog whistle that I'm surprised to see used in this paper in this way.
1
This might be the most intelligent commentary in the Times today.
The path to the White House for the Democrats in 2020 is shown by the results in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If they win those states, and the states they won in 2016, they are in. Narrowly, but in. In Michigan, Republicans were routed, even Fred Upton, a popular moderate Republican barely escaped. A Democrat governor, attorney general, and secretary of state were elected. Flipped several House seats, even though the districts are so-blatantly gerrymandered by the R's that the voters overwhelmingly approved a ballot proposal for a non-partisan panel to redraw the boundaries. Trump won Michigan in 2016 by 40K votes because Democrat turnout was historically low. That won't happen again in Michigan and I suspect won't in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
This is my second try, for my first comment on this well said piece was flagged or hacked seemingly. The columnist here does not focus on the success of female Democrats candidates, but the possible stagnation appears to be obvious. As having been said in the piece, when mobilizations and charismas are solely relied on as strategies, that can make the party move forward in elections, which, however, simultaneously would become a stopper for moving further to beat the opponent (=Republicans). This point has been repeated by the columnist from different angles on many occasions in his writings. To me, for Democrats, ideological approaches alone might be thought not as flashy enough in this highly digitalized media era.
If the Democrats can standoff Trumps intentions for America, that will be a win. Winning the House is no small matter, but what we really need is a paradigm shift in all human thought.
In the near future, we will program the human mind in the computer, which will give us the ability to learn what we do to ourselves with our ridiculous beliefs and manufactured values. The computer mind will be based on a "survival" algorithm and will provide irrefutable proof as to how we trick the mind with our beliefs about just exactly what is supposed to survive - producing a mind programmed de facto for destruction. When we come to understand this, we will begin the long trek back to reason and sanity. See RevolutionOfReason.com
@RLB: Nobody knows how to confer emotions to machines to cause them to pursue happiness.
So, the blue wave became a purple puddle. I’ll take it, especially here in Kansas. I can actually breathe again. Let’s really start planning for 2020. For now, it’s Mueller Time.
3
A stalemate is typically fairly difficult to achieve in a chess game, and it is aimed to prevent a checkmate.
This was something more along the lines of, “Queen takes rook. Mate in two.”
Thank heavens for the likely upcoming stalemate between Trump and the House, which will prevent Trump from trying to implement any more of his off the wall (or build the wall) proposals. I'm so happy about this I'm thinking of contacting long time Guitarist Phil Lesh and suggesting that he form an updated version of his old band and give it a new name - The Grateful Deadlock.
1
Not a bad summary considering the author's bent. For me it seems a pall and disgrace has been lifted off the face of America. The election shows a majority of Americans want decency and integrity from Washington.
We'll get it all back, Ross, and we liberals thank you for exposing what conservatism has become-an oligarchy of corruption.
Satire from The Borowitz Report The New Yorker Magazine
"Putin Loses Control of the House"
By Andy Borowitz November 6, 2018
"MOSCOW (The Borowitz Report)—Calling it “the biggest disappointment of my political career,” Vladimir Putin conceded late Tuesday night that he had lost control of the United States House of Representatives.
Putin made his concession speech from the Kremlin, where he congratulated the Democrats for waging a “tough fight.”
“Maybe if Facebook and Twitter hadn’t banned so many of my fake accounts, the results would have been different,” Putin said. “But I don’t want to make excuses—I threw everything I had at these races, and I lost.”
Putin did, however, have harsh words for Donald Trump, who opted for a fear-mongering closing argument about immigration despite the Russian President’s objections.
“I warned him that that would kill us in the suburbs, and he ignored me,” Putin said. “I hope this teaches him never to disobey my orders again.”
1
"Insufficient coalitions" is a great characterization. Who will get smart first?
What this election shows is that the Federal election system no longer fairly and efficiently aggregates our individual exogenous, rank-ordered preferences.
In other words, it's not fair that some citizen's votes count more than others.
The fact that, once again, a clear majority of voters rejected the Republican party is comforting. But the structural obstacles to real democracy in America are fundamental and profound.
As long as the 5 most populous states (with over 100 million Americans) are represented by only 10 Senators, while the 5 least populous states (with fewer than 4 million residents) also have 10 Senators, we have a problem. Every vote should count the same. Full Stop.
@Roger You have heard of the House of representatives right?
A stalemate only if Mitch McConnell and Trump decline to work with Dems on infrastructure and other common-good issues.
Even then, GOP emptied the piggy bank with that $1.6 Trillion tax cut.
So maybe you're right. Can't afford much more than investigations.
Thanks!
As near as I could tell the Republican run government had their own stalemate. Little done in two years. Obama did way more.
More importantly, I should not be surprised that Ross did little to mention the significance of holding the most corrupt administration in check. Conway, Sanders and others illegal actions ignoring the Hatch Act are things that the supposed patriot Ross should care about.
Stalemate is likely good for business as there won't be any surprise legislation being passed, and any regulation changes will be via executive order. I held my nose and voted for Hillary expecting pro-business stalemate and was pleasantly surprised by the 2016 result's effect on markets.
I guess a 300 point rise in the Dow this morning shows a lot of people think the same.
The most interesting part of the next two months is what the Dems. do about their leadership, and then what position the resulting team decides to do about working with Republicans.
I don't know if Maxine Waters can subpoena Trump's tax returns and actually get them, but I suspect trying to do so would be a dumb move if Democrats want any cooperation thereafter.
1
I share the following thoughts, as a liberal of many years. The Dems nominate too many people that they like the most but are not the most electable . To be blunt, too often Dems will nominate someone who fits their wish of what should be elected, rather than nominating the candidate that is, in fact, the most electable . In Maine we kept nominating a very liberal woman(full disclosure-i supported her and gave her money) for our conservative northern district and Bruce Poliquin kept getting elected with a large margin. Now we have a very good chance of throwing him out because we nominated a male veteran. Is that fair or right? No, but it is what we need to do to win.
The pendulum must pass through the middle as it swings from right to left.
A couple of weeks ago, more or less, Douthat wrote that the election outcome we now have would be best, but today he writes "Until it comes, we have two parties that in different ways seem content with their insufficient coalitions, and a country that needs a governing majority but will settle yet again for stalemate." He needs to make up his mind. Note, too, a number of the senate races, most notably in Texas, that Republicans won were close enough to signal a shifting away from the Republican cynicism that is so damaging to global society.
I don't think anyone expected a "presidency ending repudiation" from these midterms. We did expect a "repudiation" and even a seemingly unrelated factor like the size of the turnout point to this. Your interpretation is pure spin on an election in which the Democrats finally have a majority in half of one of the three branches of government, something they did not have before. Much as I disagree with President Trump, I am not terribly unhappy this election demonstrated that his base is far from diminished. This is something the Democrats (and rational conservatives) need to contend with. And you, Ross Douthat, can continue to help find a path to sanity.
In the expectations game, Dems fell short. They claimed the blue wave would swamp Trump They engaged in talk of taking over the Senate earlier in the Fall. Trump would suffer a loss of seats similar to 2010 or at least approaching that number. The losses were routine and according to midterm form, numerically.
Is "stalemate," another word for "checks and balances?" I don't think the past two years have been stalemate, I think they've been wretched excess, at least in ideological, and ethical concerns. Legislation is another story.
I hate to speak for "most of us," but I'm going to take a shot. I think most of us would like to see the parties come together in passing legislation (with taxation that makes sense) to serve the common good. And, "common good," shouldn't be that hard to define, think infrastructure, education, health, and then think about caring for the "least among us."
3
The democrats had ten million more senate votes than republicans, this after hillary won by 3 million votes. The electoral system is broken. Rural votes count much more than suburban and city votes.
1
Yes Tester might lose with a hundred thousand votes while Beto gets four million. Really? Two senators for a state smaller than a California county?
Douthat said something here which is obvious but may turn out to be the defining political dynamic of the next several years: the non-Trumpian GOP has no affirmative agenda other than to forestall the demands of liberalism -- and tax cuts of course, always with the tax cuts.
Outside of the Trump base, the GOP can't even agree on immigration reform.
So really the GOP is more naturally comfortable as a minority party, carping at the Pelosis and Obamas of the majority party from the safety of their rural and exurban districts and states.
Since the GOP's structural advantage in the Senate -- and the playbook there is even more clear this morning -- may make divided government the default for a generation, I think we'll see the GOP take back the mantle of the Resistance. Turnabout is fair play.
2
I am continually amused by the "advice" from conservative commentators that Democrats can only win through "ideological compromise"--all while you celebrate the fact that the Republicans can continue to approve right-wing judges.
I think that we will continue to ignore this advice, as we should. Nice try, though.
Here in my home state of Wisconsin, we managed to elect Democratic candidates for governor and senator in statewide races, yet the state legislature remains in GOP control. The impact of gerrymandering and voter suppression is real. Any analysis of yesterday's outcomes has to take into account that the field is tilted against Democrats so that we need far more than a popular majority to win many elections.
3
Here is a little bit of data that puts in perspective the attitudes many Americans have about their neighbors. In the Georgia race for governor, the election results in Brian Kemp's hometown are telling. Clarke County is by area the smallest county in Georgia. Athens/Clarke County is a unified government, with only the small incorporated city of Winterville not a part of the combined government. Abrams won won all of the 24 precincts in Clarke County with a county-wide total of 70.4% and won Kemp's home precinct of Winterville by 59.1%. Until last year I lived a mile from Kemp's precinct but, sadly, had to move to live with family in a county that went for Kemp by a margin of roughly 2/1. I like to think those who knew the man better than those from more distant areas of the state knew why they shouldn't vote for him, being neighbors and all!
"...the way they just lost in Texas.."
But, did Dems lose in Texas? Beto may not have won the seat, but he won in that he painted the state more blue. In the long run, that could be considered a win. Now Cruz is under a huge spotlight, no longer able to cruise through on antiquated GOP ideology. There is more pressure to perform beyond the route, Reaganesque supply-side dogma, beyond dated pseudo-machismo of deregulation. How will he represent Texans on healthcare, climate change, infrastructure, education, women's choice. Beto succeeded at one thing: making Texas more purple, putting pressure on Cruz to lean more left on some issues.
3
Democrats will now get blamed for the rising budget deficits due to the Republican tax cuts, and will be pressured into either raising taxes or making deep cuts.
Meanwhile, McConnell can keep stacking our Courts with biased Judges and thwart any meaningful legislative initiatives by the Democrats. At the same time Trump will test new limits of executive power, knowing the Supreme Court majority sophists have his back.
I really do not see how this is a good day for America.
3
Kick trump and his bums out of the white house and senate in 2020
2
After a scary election season, I know I should be warm and fuzzy re: Mr. Douthat. However, the triteness and banality of his columns over, say, the last six months have been staggering. Seriously, is this all you got? Anyone given a forum like his in the NYT is obligated to dig deeper. David Brooks often has a walkabout in the Land of the Goodthinkful. But, occasionally, he at least achieves depth and coherence within the designated time limits.
3
As a member in good standing of the ideologically rigid, lock-step-marching, damn-the-country Republican Party, Douthat made an unintentional joke in stating that Democrats refuse to compromise on ideology. He should put down the party playbook and read up on the history of Republicans. If he doesn’t have time for extensive reading, given all the time he obviously spends keeping up on the latest right-wing talking points, he should at least look at the last ten years. The Republican knee-jerk obstructionist response to Obama alone, based largely on racism, but also on the rigid ideology of the one-percenters, shows which side actually refuses to compromise.
6
Turning the popular-vote advantage into a Senate majority is damn near impossible given the 2-per-state structure of that chamber. I don't know how Democrats can convince these rural folks that the Trumpublican party is totally failing them, but perhaps the GOP will do that themselves in the next two years.
3
Another article from Ross proclaiming his amazing insight only proving he has no original insight. While I am all for compromise and finding consensus, Ross fails to see that his beloved party has no ideology save the one they profess but do not follow. It is great that conservatives say they are great Christians and respectful of others and believe in fiscal responsibility and love the Constitution but their actions fail to prove that time and again. But it is Conservative doctrine now that you never question if you practice what you preach - it is an act of faith.
The clearest proof is that Ross speaks as if it is normal for Republican Senators to pack the court with conservative judges with barely a majority of votes when that is a clear violation of true Constitutional intention. And why is it so important for the courts to be ruled by Conservatives? Because that is the way you ensure their true intention to be maintained - that money stays in the hands of those that already have it, that freedom is only meant for those that can buy it, and that legislation that violates your desires can be overruled and ignored.
But yes, Ross, it is the Democrat's ideology that need to adjust to... what exactly? Treat democracy like a game with winners and losers? Ignore what would truly make the majority of Americans' lives better and cater to people's anxiety and fears?
Wake up Ross, though it would damage your sense of self it would be good for you in the long run.
4
@Lucas Lynch: "Conservative" judges are averse to deciding anything at all in civil litigation, which lets the deepest pocketed litigant ultimately dictate terms of lawsuit settlements.
1
"Republicans after Trump’s victory should have been obvious: Seal the working-class realignment with a dose of economic populism, hold the suburbs by dialing back the Trumpian excesses."
An unusually clear and uncluttered column by Ross Douthat, but delivered, unfortunately, with his usual naivete. The day that the Republicans become the party of "economic populism" is the day it loses all of it's campaign funding from the Koch brothers and their allies. Which, in other words, is the same day we would celebrate the death--by suicide-- of the Republican Party.
1
I really resent your use of the word “hysteria” Mr. Douthat. That implies an exaggerated, over-emotional response. The responses to Trump’s stated beliefs and actions were completely justified. He embodies the worst in human beings with his racism, sexism, lack of empathy and non-existent morality. The negative responses Trump received from not only Americans but people from all over the world are totally justified and well within the range of normalcy. It is HE who is aberrant.
2
A return to stand-off? I don't think so. The House elections showed that most Americans do not align themselves with the race-baiting, fear-cultivating, demonic rage Trump tried desperately to tar every Republican with. Millions more voted for Democrats than Republicans.
And 8 million more voted for blue candidates for the Senate than red ones. More Democrats voted for Governor as well.
You focus too much over new lines in the sand but pay insufficent attention to underlying waves and demographics. Time - and God knows policy - is just not on the Republican side.
1
I would rather take over the House with a sea-change of newness reflected in numbers of women, minorities, and young people new to politics than barely defend an ossified,anachronistic Senate with barely veiled racism, one-issue Religion, and devotion to a morally bankrupt President.
Trickle up politics will now work heavily in the Democrats favor as new faces and attitudes “invade” Washington, leave their legacy, and move on to other positions of leadership.
2
I am happy that my deep red state of Oklahoma elected real Democrat Kendra Horn to the U.S. House of Representatives. This seat had been held by Republicans for 44 years
She pretty much ran on education and healthcare, but was ignored by the DNC and the national media. Who knew that Oklahoma City was getting so progressive. Take that, Tulsa!
1
A much more accurate title would be "The Midterms Deliver a Check on Corruption."
1
"But this election confirms that, contra certain Trump enthusiasts, the #MAGA era in right-wing politics is essentially a defensive era, in which G.O.P. leverages a fortunate Electoral College win and an advantage in the Senate to fill the courts and delay liberal ambitions for a time …"
A little honesty is in order here. We are creaking along with an inflexible system conceived during the Agricultural Age, when consistency was a much greater virtue than it is today. It's hard to see how that system continues to function well in a world that is evolving at blistering speed … and only growing faster by the day. Something has to give.
Things rarely collapse until they do. Let's hope it isn't our democracy next time.
Here are my observations and thoughts. Turnout here in Minnesota was very high for a midterm election. I work as an Election Judge (poll worker) in a pink/blue collar precinct with a large segment having a Republicanfamily history.
Write-ins are hand counted and that means every ballot is examined to check for write-ins. We divide up that task and each of us actually looks at only a fraction of the ballots. Here are my observations.
My precinct typically is a turnout laggard and we had an unusually high number of absentee voters (effectively early voting) that are counted at a central election office and not at the precinct. But the roster is marked AB next to the name of all early voters to prevent double voting. There is no count but I could get a rough estimate of the early votes. I would say the turnout was about 60%.
There were a remarkable number of straight ticket ballots for each party.
Women turned out in force. Since I know the neighborhood to some degree, I would say that the great majority of women who voted were likely white, evangelical women. The precinct is 90% or more white.
The most apparent crossover appeared to be voters who voted for one Republican candidate and otherwise voted straight DFL. They voted for the Republican Attorney General candidate. The DFL candidate suffered from late, exaggerated charges of spousal abuse.
Just my observations.
The split must be healed. We are facing the greatest challenges in human history and if we do not work with each other we will surely work against each other even as events take place that can destroy everything that we all need to live in a civilized and well functioning society. Trump is playing with half the country to their great amusement and terrifying the other half with his refusal to be serious about his responsibilities. Focusing upon him must end. We are not tending to our national business by giving him all of our attention. If the House can focus the real needs of this country, they can probably kill the ratings on Trump plays the President reality show.
1
Listen. We don’t agree! And I think we all understand that we never will.
This country is too big. Let’s make four or five countries
1
Stalemate? Standoff? Nonsense! Only in the eyes of a right wing Know Nothing like Mr. Douthat.
House Democrats will follow their Oath of office and hold Trump, and his sycophants accountable for their corruption and unlawful conduct. I eagerly wait for the results.
2
Y'all hammer the President so continuously that I think alot of folks just turn your diatribes off. It was overall a blah night for Dems. Advice: Move toward the center on immigration and abortion and quit having tantrums when you lose. The slogan "Jobs, not mobs" resonated.
2
It's too bad the GOP isn't motivated to do much more than subjugate their "enemies."
Who knows where we could go?
Nice Orwellian verbiage.
It's not a stalemate.
Many women, LGBTQ candidates, and people of color were elected. The historical 'identity politics' that favored the white male identity as the assumed 'normal default' (and unmarked as that identity was never labeled as 'identity politics') is being swept away. Many of us are happy about this.
2
What held off a huge blue wave was gerrymandering and abortion rights.
Rest assured not even Kavanaugh will overturn Roe V. Wade.
The underlying bedrock of (R) support will crumble without it.
1
@The Poet McTeagle
And good old-fashioned GOP voter suppression.
Close the polls early, broken machines, your phot ID isn't good enough, etc.
Think about that. the only voter fraud in this country is voter suppression by the GOP. Brian kemp in Georgia is the king of that.
The opinion headline cites "two years of chaos and hysteria". It is a good summation of the Trump presidency to date.
2
I am old and white. I am proud of our nation which voted in overwhelming numbers against the deluded senile self-worshiping television slug and it's "policies". For two years we have had to listen to tiresome boasts about what was going "to be done" whether American wanted it or not. The Wall is now as extinct as The Monkees. Hee hee hee.
3
I will take a stalemate any day to the chaos and destruction that the last two years have wrought. As Trump frequently says, a win is a win. I hope that the Democrats will find a way to lead us out of this mess we are in. We shall see. But the first thing to do with a wound is to stop the bleeding. And that has happened. There are those who are eager to start the 2020 campaign today, but I am simply relieved that there will be some check on Trump's madness.
1
I'd rather have a stand-off than another Republican Supreme Court Judge. We need to stand together and hold the line for the next 2 years. And then elect Joe Biden. He is our only hope. He has the necessary experience and the added benefit of not being an insane lunatic.
Ross, I hope that when you refer to "chaos and hysteria" you are talking about the raging dumpster fire that is the Trump administration. I would also not use the term stalemate to describe a Democrat controlled House that is now free to investigate Trump's corruption, criminality and potential treason. Not to mention the Mueller report, which will finally be released once the new House members are seated in January. There won't be a return to business-as-usual politics until this fundamentally indecent human being is removed from the office that he is unfit to occupy.
2
Is liberal immigration policy midwife to the demographic shift they expect will eventually win them power?
"...settle yet again for stalemate."
The Founders had a profound distrust of government. This we know from their writings and from the way they structured the Congress, the Presidency, and the Federal and Supreme Courts.
They feared government with a heavy hand a la the British one against which they rebelled. Thus they made it hard for government to act, divvying up the power and building in the checks-and-balances notion.
Ross, your party has completely failed to stop the fascistic, authoritarian, lawless, and divisive actions of the current executive branch. What you're calling a stalemate is just a restoration of *some* of the checks and balances and shared power that the Constitution mandates -- and which the GOP has completely neglected over the past two years.
And yes, the Democrats have dropped the ball on the kitchen-table economic positions they used to champion. The MN Democrat-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party is a model they could remember and rejuvenate to reach out to rural residents and to urban and suburban people who work for a living -- a huge majority of the population.
But also, they need to stop Trump. He's a disaster -- and he's all yours, too. The GOP lines up behind him and fawns as he grabs at whatever his little Twitter fingers reach for.
Since newly elected representatives will not take their seats until January 3, 2019. Trump still has two months to push legislation through a Republican-control Congress no longer reluctant to vote on controversial issues during an election year. The House is likely to act on such measures as immigration reform before the year is out. However, other than tax reform—which has already been achieved—Trump has never had much of a legislative agenda. His most controversial acts have been to enforce existing laws. For example, existing laws already calls for the arrest and detention of illegal border crossers and the removal or deportation of all aliens unlawfully residing in the United States, not just those who commit violent crimes. The newly elected Democratic representatives can’t change these laws or make new laws to counter the Trump agenda because Republicans will still control both the Senate and the White House on the morning of January 3. Many of the most controversial issues of our time will continue to be decided by Supreme Court decisions, not legislation, and there is now a conservative majority on the bench.
No Ross, what America delivered was a 2 years too late check on Executive branch corruption.
The chaos won't end after last night because the source of that chaos is still in place.
But here is the other thing it delivered, the unambiguous ideals of the GOP.
Racism, lies (So now they want to protect pre-existing. What a joke), and fear.
2
I for one welcome a stalemate; that's the most realistic outcome given the degree to which Republicans have gerrymandered voting districts around the country. With control of the House finally comes oversight and investigation of the most corrupt administration in history.
As for this imaginary "ideological compromise" that you lament Democrats should be looking for, that's the kind of pure drivel that seems to inform most of your columns, Ross. There is no compromise with a party that continues to support a racist, isolationist, nationalist agenda. That's not America and it never will be.
2
Ross, what ideological compromise would you want from a Democrat in Texas?
That they become a NeverTrump Conservative like you?
Isn't that like hoping for the dark clouds to pass, the sky suddenly turning blue and it starts raining Skittles?
Instead of patronizing Beto O'Rourke and his near win over Cruz, perhaps what he should be doing is camping out in both Iowa and New Hampshire, because he could be the exact kind of presidential candidate the Democratic Party needs at this time to take on Trump.
Then again, Ross may have a secret appreciation for smarmy, reality TV star types as opposed to the unabashed, liberal kind.
What else have I learned on this Skittles morning:
- That Conservatives still prefer accused felons like Chris Collins and Duncan Hunter over a Democrat.
- That Conservatives still love the antics of a Devin Nunes.
- That Florida restored felon voting rights, which will alter voting outcomes there.
- That people in Missouri and Michigan want to get stoned legally.
- Did I see a Democrat win the governorship in Kansas, flip one House seat and nearly flip another? I must be dreaming.
- That my state is also not ready to tackle climate change in the form of a "carbon fee".
- That Dana Rohrabacher can now officially move to Russia and become Putin's back scratcher.
- That Trump has already endorsed Pelosi as Speaker, which is why she should not be Speaker.
- That Schumer is still in a coma.
Beyond that, who is Robert Mueller's next target?
Roger Stone?
1
This piece is truly analytical and very well said. The columnist here does not focus on the success of female candidates (Democrats), but the possible stagnation seems to be obvious. As having been said in the piece, when mobilizations and charismas are relied on as strategies, that can make the party move forward in elections by energy and cheers within, which simultaneously, however, would become a stopper for moving further to beat the opposite party (=Republicans). That is the point which the columnist has repeated from different angles on many occasions in his writings. Maybe in my view, for Democrats, ideological approaches alone are thought to be not flashy enough in this highly digitalized media era.
My conclusion? America is not a binary entity split between liberal and conservative. Republican and Democrat. Elections simply make us seem that way. Ceteris paribus. If you strip away voter suppression, abortion, gerrymandering, Fox News propaganda, and endless presidential fear mongering: Yes, this election was a repudiation of Donald J. Trump. The upbeat optimism of Betomania is in fact a winning strategy.
Maybe not in Texas but Beto was within the margin of error. He's a landslide in most of the United States. His loss is actually a blessing for Democrats. He can now transition straight to the primaries. Beto has more executive experience than Donald Trump after all. Meanwhile, Joe Manchin will never be forgiven after Kavanaugh. Congratulations to his local supporters but the man is a pariah on the national stage.
Bring on 2020. I'm excited just thinking about it.
2
@Andy All elections are local. Never forget that. Even the Presidency is voted on at a state level, not national. Democrats tend to forget this fact. The constituents are not everyone in the nation. They are the people in your district or state.
@John
I know local politics better than most. I have more than one picture standing next to the governor. He's Republican. I'm telling you voters are not binary even within a district or state. Barring a botched campaign, Beto will win more than he'll lose. Those local victories have the potential to translate into a national victory. Texas is a case study.
Republicans should be far more concerned about their loss of governorships. This would indicate a far greater shift that will aid the Democrats most in the long run. The 2016 election was an electoral college fluke aided by the Democrats running a candidate who was extremely polarizing; this election shows more accurately where the country is headed, with both sides hoping for a stalemate simply to thwart the other's ambition. But the success of non-male, non-white, and non-hetero candidates is a hopeful sign for progressives.
1
"There is no conservative governing agenda at the moment."
Conservative governing agenda is an oxymoron -- the function of conservatism is to moderate. It is an attitude -- not an ideology.
American conservatives convincingly argued that 20th century American "Liberalism" was not "liberal." Likewise, American "Conservatism" is not conservative. It is reactionary and destructive.
2
@MKR Current liberalism is not at all liberal. Liberalism is intrinsically tied to individual freedom. Democrats mostly believe in that on the social side, but certainly not on the economic side. This is despite the fact that capitalism is singlehandedly the biggest factor in reducing American and world poverty.
"Ideological compromise" has lost Texas badly for the Democrats again and again. O'Rourke's stances made it close, very close. And, recall, not only didn't he take PAC money but he offered a real vision instead of only running against Trump. A little more demographic change is necessary before Texas turns, true. But even before that happens, it's clear that if just a few more voters had been turned out the miracle would have happened now. That's an old-time lesson relevant to the present and future: get your voters out.
2
There will never be a "conservative governing agenda" because conservatives have no interest in actually governing. Success in that field requires an ability to deal with the world as it actually is. The society that would benefit from conservative prescriptions exists only in their dreams.
6
@heyblondie Actually, Americans have benefited greatly from capitalism and the free market economy. This economic system has done more to eliminate poverty than all other economic systems combined. Being a protector of capitalism is not a shortcoming or flaw.
1
John, you're off base, or maybe just in the wrong time. Please acquaint yourself with the "conservatives" of our day. Oligarchical, corrupt, not so much capitalist as monopolists in waiting--and not much waiting, either. You would be more inclined to be a moderate democrat if you knew what republicans now are.
1
The fact that Mr. Douthat considers the counterparts to the Never Trumpers "normal" conservatives is frightening and revealing.
3
Mr. Douthat, last night my district in central Oklahoma elected a democratic woman named Kendra Horn to the United States House of Representatives, the first woman ever from our state, the first democrat in decades. Last night, upsets in races were so common that reading all morning, one would not read of them all.
No, Ross, it's not the same as before republicans unveiled their willingness to use raw chicanery, division, and threats to get and keep power. It's not the same as when the takers, the billionaire class and their political pals, were able to keep their cruelty more under wraps. Their dupes are many, but fewer every day as the pain increases for real people, pain these malefactors on high inflict--to the environment, to trade--with tariffs and broken agreements only beginning to be felt, to those who need health care, to those who are learning republican plans for social security, to women who may not have known before Mr. Grabber's ascension to power the deep contempt in which they're held on the right. The shift now is not the "usual" thing. When the republican party is losing Oklahoma, it's losing. The ground is shifting under you, whether you feel it or not.
9
"There is no conservative governing agenda at the moment; there is only a desire not to be ruled by liberalism."
Thank you for acknowledging this.
It is the absolute crux of our problem as a nation. A vast media apparatus is devoted to convincing its viewers that liberalism is horrible, without ever offering a solution. This is because the engineers of this message use it to enrich themselves. They don't care about alternatives.
So, right now the alternative is demagoguery and the destruction of beneficial, functional programs in the name of iconoclasm. And people cheer for this, because the demonization of generic liberalism is so pervasive and entrenched that it overwhelms any pragmatic application of policy or even attention.
3
@Dan: Liberals liberate. Only tyrants use the word "liberal" as an epithet.
2
@Dan Actually, liberalism is the best option. It’s a shame that liberalism was dropped by Democrats in favor of socialism.
1
@Dan, democrats and liberals of the past, and now, let republicans misuse language and alter terms. The latest is their repetition of "democrat" as an adjective, as in the "democrat party," because they want to strip dignity of "democratic". The trouble is that we have not resisted that firmly enough. The same with "liberal". As a southern liberal of old, I can say we have had noble victories and reasons for confidence. And we let the republicans misuse our name without defense, and started saying "progressive", as if we were old-time Midwestern populists or some such. We need to stand straight and stop apologizing, thinking that if we're nice enough and yield enough, things will improve. My complaint about Pres. Obama was that he did that too much. I don't say we should descend to the republicans' level But we need to hold our own against their cunning tricks.
2
Wrong Ross. The GOP got exactly what they want - tax cuts for their billionaire sponsors and conservative judges. They don’t care what happens in the House. And they’re perfectly happy living with the divisiveness that causes gridlock because nothing getting done is better than a progressive agenda, even though a majority in this country favor that agenda. Gerrymandering, voter suppression, and draconian voter ID requirements must end if there is to be a return to fairness and confidence in our government.
4
What is the point of the Democratic party if not protection of women's right to choice, a policy on immigration that recognizes the human rights of persons who are walking a thousand miles on the hope of democracy and freedom, an economic system that rewards workers, not simply tax cheats and gamblers? Like asking a Roman Catholic to be a little flexible on adultery, incest, or theft. Lot of them are, but we don't call them Catholics.
3
Attacking immigrants,and Trump's misogyny and sexism, has cost the GOP and Trump a generation of women and minority voters. In California, the latest trick among GOP candidates is running as independants after being driven out of the cities and suburbs. Steve Poizner, who ran for insurance commissioner in CA is one such case. He ran as a republican and bashed immigrants in 2010, and softened his message in 2018. Unfortunately, the newspapers endorsed him and he was leading in his race last evening.
1
Stalemate? No. A REBUKE. Now the abominable fake president can be publicly scrutinized. Only apologists for the immorality of one-party rule would refer to last evening's triumph as a "stalemate."
6
@East End
For any other president, this would be a rebuke. For Trump who twists every fact to suit his own ends, it's a stalemate. To be fair he'd probably emerge unscathed even from an overwhelmingly repudiating blue tsunami...
Wishing for a presidential heart attack more than ever...
The biggest winner last night was ObamaCare. Republican dreams of repeal are dead, dead, dead!
4
These Midterms are a proof of the inertia of people's nearsightedness. The uncouth boor in the White House will go on as before, if not worse.
2
I realize everyone is tired, but this is a pretty thin and un-incisive take. If you talk about this election without talking about racism and xenophobia and misogyny, then you are not really talking about this election, you are just moving your mouth (or fingers on the keyboard).
3
I would argue that it was a good night for the DFL in the senate if you want to rid the party of GOP-lite. Had the DFL taken an approach say like O Rourke in Indiana, Missouri and ND, they probably would have done better. And even had they still lost they would have presented a clear difference between themselves and the GOP, which they did not in those states. I would say there were two GOP candidates in those states. Just like NY had two GOP candidates for governor. It's time for the DFL to stop being fake liberals. They won't attract new or young voters by giving them no real choice.
On the Trump front, he will shoot himself in the foot continually and keep up the racist demagoguery. Thus the GOP will continue to be the party of angry white racists. They should be so proud, and most of them will be. Thanks for reviving the Nazis, KKK, and all the rest of the violent domestic terrorists.
2
I'll take stalemate over the racism and lies the GOP have on offer.
4
So, it’s all the Democrats fault, they just couldn’t beat Trump, OR compromise enough. Nothing to do with the megalomaniac, Sociopath in the Oval Office, or his Collaborators.
Yeah, right.
3
The thing about old people is that they are a self-renewing resource. And as life expectancy increases there are more and more of them.
2
Women had huge gains in House races. Majority of votes overall were from Democrats. The House is now under Democratic control. Increase of Democratic governors in key states took place.Trump can spin himself into oblivion about how great his victory was last night but the numbers don’t lie They are facts. The country will continue on this path toward honesty and decency, moving forward . We are just getting started now.
2
@Sharon Salzberg Congratulations to Denver Riggleman that won the VA house district you vote in. (5th). I think he will make a great Representative for some time to come.
@John
Fifth district is badly gerrymandered. It will be redrawn and then the Dems will prevail. Riggleman is a joke. Glad that Brat lost. Sweet consolation.
@John
We are sending 7 Democrats to the House from Va.,out of a total of 11. We are a Blue State.
I live in a Red county in the midst of other Red rural counties in a state that ousted a two term Republican governor and re elected a lesbian Democratic Senator.
Our polling place was very crowded and standing in line it was obvious that we were 100% White with a median age of about 60-65.
Some of us will die before the next census and will not be replaced, more young people will move to the metro areas and will not be replaced. All the district lines will be drawn anew reflecting a net loss of rural citizens.
And that is the rub. The vote in WI for governor was 51-49% Democratic yet the Republicans have close to a 2/3 majority in state legislators and a majority of House seats. All of that is a consequence of gerrymandering.
If the new lines are not drawn fairly no change in Democratic policies to engage rural white voters will change the outcome.
And I doubt that SCOTUS will help.
2
A majority of Americans keep voting for Democrats, Mr. Douthat.
A majority of Americans have voted for Democrats in 5 of the last presidential election, and only won 3 of those elections.
A majority of Americans believe in gun control, in livable wages, in doing something about climate change, in raising taxes on the rich, in protecting people with preexisting conditions, in a woman's right to choose, in doing something about drug prices, in protecting medicare and Social Security.
So, what you refer to as "hysteria" is truly insulting.
The Republicans actually voted for two criminals in Hunter and Collins last night, as well as a right-wing. Nazi enthusiast in King in Iowa.
The measured readers in the NYTimes keep pointing out these facts to you, Mr. Brooks and Mr. Stephens and you keep pushing that the country is divided.
It isn't divided.
It is set up so the minority can control the majority.
We, the majority, need to figure out a way to out-fox these charlatan Republicans.
Keep up the fight, Democrats.
Onward to the next battle in 2020.
Keep organizing and voting Democrat in 2020 until we cut out this cancer, formally known as the Grand Old Party.
7
What a great day for Democracy.
The Senate was a long shot from the get-go and unlike more local Congressional seats, there were enough well protected Republican Senate seats. Throw in a vitriol of fear-mongering, and the Senate was in the game of chess, castling, the switching of rook and king to better protect the king.
That said, I doubt that the voting public will have much of an appetite for a Republican controlled Senate, if all they do from here on in is block House proposals that benefit the middle-class. No offense but Cruz should never have had a guy like Beto nipping his tail in of all states, Texas. But he did and nearly lost Texas. Wow!
And then of course you now have in the Senate, the Romney coalition. Currently consisting of only one Senator-elect, he might end up building a small, but all important group of Republican Senators, who like him, are looking well beyond Trump. I somehow sense that Romney didn't run for the Senate just to be a Senator. Perhaps he is thinking 2020 or 2024 but either way, he isn't going to make the same mistakes again by codling only the rich. He knows as well as anyone that without the middle, you don't get to be President.
So the game for "Beyond Trump" is well underway. And I for one am buoyed by the number of women who won, the number of Governors who are now Democrats, and for those who lost and came to within inches of winning in races that once would have been long-shots at best.
3
Excellent: thank you. Right on the mark. This incrementalism will get us no where. Pelosi will run the House again and she is loaded with so many strings, she won't be able to "move" as usual. She is wrapped up in promises to donor money, which she collects for the Dems and hands out. She hasn't mentioned the words "union" or "medicare for all" in ten years. She is corrupt as is the campaign financing system -- (as they call it; where I come from it is called corruption.) The problem is not Trump it is corporatism and the 1% who run the country.
3
A net shift of two seats in the House would shift control back, and the NYT says there are still 23 undecided seats. That allows for less than 10% unexpected to reverse the presumed outcome.
It is too soon to be so sure, especially if you really want to see it and are set to convince yourself.
Current reports are a 3 seat margin in the House, a 0.68% margin of control. That is a very narrow win.
Offsetting that is a 10 seat margin in the Senate, 55-45, which is now 10% instead of just one seat, 1%. That is a very useful increase in margin.
Democrats must keep every one of over 200 members in line, from the most conservative to the most liberal. Two rebels would defeat anything.
That is the same 1% margin that gave Republicans fits in the Senate until now, but with more than four times the numbers, and those more undisciplined both because they're in the House and because they're Democrats (famously more independent).
True, they'd get the gavel and chair committees. However, those are subject to keeping support of their members. Even McConnell had trouble with just 50 Republican Senators. How will Adam Schiff do with over 220 Democrats, when he can't afford to lose even two?
Douthat says he's being cautious here. He's not. He isn't see the real world problems. Perhaps just saying them will bring down outrage on the one pointing them out, but hey, reality just is, whether you like it or not.
2
I suspect one of the long term effects of this division between major conurbations and rural areas is going to be an increasing questioning of why states with tiny populations can use senate majorities to impose their will on social questions on states like California with 39 million people. There is btw evidence of a desire for liberalism or why else did three very red states all vote to expand Medicaid and tow other states elect governors who are going to wave it through. It's the age old dichotomy between an America that is theoretically politically conservative but operationally liberal in matters ranging from social security to disaster relief. Should Republicans attempt over reach in say the matter of women's access to abortion the senatorial system is going to come under heavy questioning. Imagine the effect in say CA or NY if Roe were ever overturned.
2
@John If Democrats actually believed in “Liberalism” then they would run away with elections and be unchallenged. Instead, they have managed to embrace their own conservatism (socialism). Hanging a hat on social liberalism while embracing economic conservatism ha been the bane of the Democratic Party.
Patience.
Now that the election is over, and the Democrats have the House, you will see far more probing into La Situation Trumpiste.
And . . .Mueller, who followed the general, if unwritten, Department of Justice dictum of no special investigatory filings or revelations within 60 days of an election (a dictum Mr. Comey violated) now has the freedom to restart the process in earnest and reveal whatever feels relevant. My supposition is that there's going to be a lot that's relevant.
And . . .wait until a lot of working class people start feeling the economic effects of Trump's trade wars--and notice, due to the tax cut not really being a tax cut for them, a limit on SALT deductibility, and insufficient withholding, that they owe taxes in April.
Some MAGA hat wearers just might start thinking a little differently.
1
Good analysis but it lacks conviction. The path dems are taking in this view is right; fight fire with fire and stick to your values. Compromise is dead because we're dealing with nationalist white supremacy and it must be forcefully defeated.
That republicans are now in decline is indisputable but they have taken the courts and that's a hard thing to reverse but not impossible. What democrats need isn't more milquetoast candidates or outright cavers like Minchin, it's brimstone and fire. It's identifying a common enemy to unify us and a heavy-handed punishment of the right. Ending the EC and imposing term limits on scotus is essential to future success, not bowing to the rich and evilgelical voters.
Resist, Obstruct, Obfuscate, refuse to pass a budget, shutdown the federal government, and impeach Trump.
3
This midterm was the best possible outcome. Gridlock will be positive. The ACA is still available to all and Republicans have no ability to repeal. The Democrats don’t have the power to over regulate and mess things up. With a strong economy, plenty of jobs, healthcare available, etc, it is actually a really good time to be American.
2
The midterms delivered a clear message that what Americans want is something they shall not receive. America will not have good governance. America will continue to have an unworthy Congress. The do-nothing legislature has another two years to do nothing. Red waves or blue waves represent discord and extremism. Who represents pragmatism, common sense, and the centrists values that most Americans hold?
1
@dudley thompson Politics runs in cycles. Extremism and populism will at some point give way to moderation and centrists. People will tire of the constant hand wringing in search of a problem. Life in America is really good and unless we slow the extremists to destroy it, people will want to return to the middle and away from artificial conflict.
"we have ... a country that needs a governing majority but will settle yet again for stalemate"
Well, Ross, we need to look to the Founder's intent to understand this. First, the House was always intended to be the voice of the people. But the Founders knew that "the people" tended to be raucous and impulsive, so they created checks and balances over them as a control. The first was a two-year term, which the Federalist papers said was to ensure that the House stays in touch with the people's desires. The second was a more deliberate and mature body which could dampen out the over-exuberance of the House, and that was the Senate.
There were no political parties per se at that time, but the Founders realized that the different houses of Congress had different mentalities and attitudes. Separating them they way they did was intended to create a self-balancing environment where consensus needed to be reached between the bodies in order to get any legislation passed. It was not designed to create a stalemate of intractable opposite sides as we have today.
The net of all this is that the Constitution requires that our political parties work together to be responsive to the needs of the voters. It is not acceptable to work solely against each other. I hold out no hope that this will happen, though, and so we will have to wait until 2020 when the Democrats can take over the Senate and Presidency for any substantive progress to be made.
1
Conservatives who acknowledge how horrible Trump is and feel good now that there is a moderate check on his abuses are the worst. The absolute worst.
Supporting Trump was a Faustian bargain. Empower a lying, race-baiting conman in exchange for tax cuts and conservative judges. Now it looks like they can sit on their tax cuts and judges, and watch from the sidelines while Trumpists and Democrats fight it out. They got what they wanted, and everyone else pays the consequences, right? That's how Faustian bargains work, as I recall...
4
@peter n Considering that the economy is humming, unemployment is low, wages are increasing, and everyone still has access to healthcare through the ACA, times are pretty good in America. Democrats don’t have to worry about cuts to entitlements and the free market doesn’t have to worry about job killing over regulation.
1
Anyone who thinks that the inevitable demographic shifts in this country are going to result in a return to east-coast liberal progressive politics is severely mistaken. If anything, more populism and more outright irresponsibility in politics will be the future. The Republicans will work to shift their message towards the new voting blocs, just as they shifted to southern voters. The Democrats will keep on singing Kumbaya until either they collapse or start to notice which way the wind blows.
37
@Daedalus
Democrats already know which way the wind is blowing, which is why they came out enforce to vote...not everyone is singing "DIXIE".
11
@Daedalus
And what does this say about Republicans?
It certainly belies their claims to be the party of morals, ethics, or being the adults in the room.
I'll take "Kumbaya" over hate, prejudice, and fear any day.
18
The democrats could try an old time message like unions, workers rights the environment responsible tax reform etc or they can stay with free everything and mass immigration.
2
Last night confirmed for me three important points:
1) The decades-long Republican strategy (starting with Gingrich) of using lies and hatred to foment bitter divisiveness and hatred within the Republican base has been shockingly successful. Now, about 45% of our country accept lies as truths, and they hate the rest of us.
2) These people (including the rabid low-info base, their candidates, and their punditry) view politics as a sport, more about their side beating the other side than about the actual outcomes of governing.
3) We need to abandon the two-party system in order to break the stalemate and get ourselves out of the morass.
To wit: Compare Douthat's (and Brooks', and Steohens') commentaries with Krugman's They never offer any concrete policy proposals that compromise to help heal the chasm. Rather, they just condescendingly lecture the Left about about what we "should" be doing to "win."
Perhaps if they did something constructive and actually offered some substantive ideas about how to make things functional (like Krugman does), they could help the situation.
While making calls for our local congressional race this week, an 80-year-old woman said to me: "I never thought that I'd live to see our country become this bad." That made me tear up, because she's very correct.
The Rightwing has succeeded beyond their darkest dreams, because they've taught a live-and-let-live Liberal like me learn to hate them. Bravo!
6
Yeah those uneducated deplorable gun toting fundamentalist crazies out in the hinterlands have been picking on all you east coast peacenicks
@Al
I'd rather be a peacenick (regardless of where I live) than an uneducated deplorable.
And BTW: I live in the hinterlands, i.e. a small town of 1800 people with no traffic lights, in the least-populated county in NY state. Three hours to the nearest city. Lots of my friends hunt. I belong to a thriving church, which plays a vibrant in the welfare of our entire community. We have much less bias and hate-crime here compared to other parts of the country. So drop your stereotypes.
You can be an uneducated deplorable and a crazy fundamentalist no matter where you live; but in my rural community, which is a typical college town, there's mutual respect between the town and gown. So, it can be done; but if you and your ilk choose to continue being close-minded, the rest of us can't help that.
You can choose to enjoy "picking on" your fellow citizens, or you can choose to accept others and work together to solve problems. If you're going to choose the latter, then you've earned my scorn.
@Paul-A. I was pointing out how people in the red states are portrayed by the left. I don't hunt, go to church and feel much safer here than in blue areas like Chicago that has more murders in a week than ID and WY do in a year.
You are very, very cynical, Mr. Douthat. In an ordinary presidency - where the House fulfilled its responsibilities and did its own job instead of providing cover and support no matter what the president does- this election would indeed mark a return to a stalemate. But this is no ordinary presidency. This is the most corrupt, undemocratic, anti-Constitutional presidency in American history. Trump loves superlatives and hyperbole and this is the one set of superlatives that is actually 100% true about him: most corrupt, most undemocratic, most anti-Constitutional.
So winning the House is actually very significant - not just for Democrats, but for all Americans.
We will have much more Congressional oversight of the President and his administration. We will no longer give Trump's gang of conspiracy theorists - Devin Nunes, Mark Meadows, Jim Jordan - the power to invent any investigation they want to undermine and/or stall the work of the special counsel, the DOJ, the FBI, and the CIA.
The House has the power to initiate revenue bills - or not.
Enough said about making Trump's tax giveaways- and entitlement "plans" for the already entitled- permanent.
The House has the power to obtain Trump's tax returns so that the country can see what corruption on a GLOBAL stage really looks like.
In a functioning democracy, the results of last night's election would probably return us to a stalemate. But the GOP has held our democracy hostage since 2016.
3
Yesterday, while walking around a Big Ten university campus, I saw a young woman student wearing a t-shirt that read "Separation of Church and Uterus." I applauded her. Like it or not, Ross, that pithy phrase represents the viewpoint of the vast majority of Americans.
Your continual efforts to imply that those of us who refuse to support pro-forced-birth political candidates are somehow being extremist in refusing to compromise is ridiculous. It's people like you who are extremist on this issue, and you really need to get some therapy to see if you can't figure out why it excites you so much to fantasize about living in a world where women are forced to continue pregnancies against our will.
Let's get that clear: you promote treating women and even girls as baby machines. That is completely and absolutely barbaric, especially coupled with continued attacks on even the most basic access to birth control.
I know I speak for millions and millions and millions who state loudly and clearly: We will never, ever vote for pro-forced-birth candidates, and if the Democratic party moves away from being solidly pro-choice, it will absolutely lose our votes.
3
To my Democratic colleagues: quit whining about the unfairness of the Senate make up. It is how the Constitution is written (each state gets 2 Senators) and the likely hood of that changing anytime in the next 50 years is nil. So stop complaining and start working to elect Democratic Senators in 2020. FYI, the situation will be reversed; i.e. the Republicans will be defending a lot of Senators in Blue States. With some good old fashion hard work we can elect a Democratic President and Senate in 2020.
1
The arrogance and hysteria on the left, particularly in this publication, is checked by the political science of democracy itself. Many mainstream ideals of New Democrats - free food, housing for all, (new Communism), open borders, unlimited immigration, low wages for all, welfare as a goal, currying favor with tech billionaires, treating police as an enemy, excesssive government jobs controlled by unions - are not things that benefit or appeal to ordinary voters. Trump won and picked up Senate seats because of the disconnect between Dem vainglory and the interests of normal Americans (of all races).
1
@rjs7777 Everybody knows there is no free lunch. But Republicans can be counted on to charge everything to the national debt, as long as they are spending the money.
@rjs7777
I'm a Democrat and I don't know a single Democrat who "believes in" free food?, housing for all?, (new Communism), open borders? (you drank Trump's koolaid), unlimited immigration, low wages for all (HAVE YOU EVER READ or seen the news about which party likes low wages?), welfare for all (are you sure you live here?),treating police as an enemy (not true,but Trump likes it to sound that way), whatever.
You need to do a lot more reading from a variety of sources. Use your head. Doubt whatever you like, but use your brain for God's sakes.
I can’t think of a more appropriate just dessert for the exceedingly stale mate presently besmirching the Oval Office.
1
Ross' monster lost critical protection! Now the House subpoenas will come and Trump's treason will be seen in broad day light. Mueller now has an ally. The end thus begins!
PROSECUTE RUSSIAGATE!
2
This should have been a Democratic rout. Instead, the Republicans actually strengthened their number in the Senate.
The House under Madam Pelosi was won but what now?
No clear mandate unfortunately.
3
@Asher B
No realistic person thought it would be a Democratic rout? The predictions by pollsters and the media were delivered almost exactly. Republicans to hold the senate with some Democratic casualties in largely rural states Trump carried by a mile and the Democrats to take the house with about a 7% margin in the overall vote. The Democrats also to pick up some governerships. Do you actually read newspapers?
2
The Senate is anti-democratic and regressive by definition. Established at a time when ninety percent of the new and relatively small American population (1789) was rural or, at least, agrarian, the U.S. has developed into a nation where 20% of the population now controls more than 50% of the votes in the Senate. The will of the majority is being mitigated. The evidence of this is shown in that at least four Supreme Court nominations (including the one stolen from an duly elected Democratic President by a Senate controlled by Republicans - the new norm for such situations now, by the way) were made by Republican Presidents who did not win the popular vote. The Electoral College aside, the majority of Americans voted for one Presidential candidate and procedural processes put the other candidate in the Oval Office who then claimed a mandate to pursue an agenda not to the liking of a majority of voters. The other issue, of course, is the high percentage of Americans who refuse to participate in the process at all. Much to be repaired in the process, but, for now at least, one guardrail, the House, has been constructed against this runaway train of a President.
2
@alprufrock
Until the next time the House flips.
If only voter suppression could be solved on the national level. It appears that each state gets to block minorities in its own unique way. The perfect match nonsense cost Stacy the Georgia governship and every registration must have a street address rule in North Dakota cost Heidi her senate position. You do not lose the tight to vote if you are homeless. Voting should be the most encouraged act of citizenship.
4
NOW....now is the time, building on the House Victory, to start building towards 2020...or in the words of George "Dubya" Bush, "Smoke'em out...Get'em Running....and Gun'em Down!
--> No More Trump....LOCK HIM UP... LOCK HIM UP!
1
Mueller.
2
I can live with dozens more conservative judges and forestalling living under even more liberal policies for another two years. Defeating the unapologetic liberals Abrams and Gillum is just a bonus.
2
@DRS: When was the last time you were apologetic? "No apologies ever!" is the Trump credo.
You people are exactly what you project. It is as ridiculous as it is amazing.
Why should liberals be apologetic just for being liberals? Seems to me, viewing it from outside, that it would be better to be open about your position than, like the GOP, lie about your policy positions (e.g. healthcare).
The Republicans had a governing majority, and look what they did with it.
1
And Ross left off the most important paragraph of his opinion piece.
The way forward to get something done in this country, to move the country forward is through COMPROMISE! The country is obviously split into two factions with little in common. You have the majority of the people that are educated, progressive, pro science people in the cities and suburbs and those less educated, religious and regressive in the rural areas. The only way to bridge the two is for both sides to GIVE IN on the contentious issues. Both sides need to sacrifice something for the greater good of the country. So, for example, Republicans have to give in on gun control. There is no intelligent reason why we cannot pass serious laws that result in keeping guns out of the hands of the violent, the mentally unstable, the wife beaters, the animal abusers, etc. At the same time the Democrats need to support better border control in whatever ways necessary. And Democrats can support middle class tax cuts and unnecessary regulation reform. There are many other ways that both sides can come together to accomplish something, including on infrastructure rebuilding, energy independence, fixing the funding of SS and Medicare, etc.
This is the conclusion to Douthat's piece that he should have written.
1
Say what you will, Mr. Douthat. But the "American Stalemate" and "standoff" you speak of has ended, and we are finally back on track to becoming the Democracy we are meant to be.
After two years of chaos, this president and the Republicans have proven that they have no clear idea of what they're doing other than plotting to maintain absolute control with their venal greed, scare tactics and racist ideologies.
That is the only "political strategy" Republicans have, and the Republic has risen up against it.
Morning has finally come.
1
Sadly, fear and racism has found a home in America. The Democrats lost by fractions after trump won states by double digits, but there is more work and no clear overwhelming win in sight for the Democrats.
Republicans gained a very firm hand on the Senate, so in reality abortion will soon be lost. Women could go back to wearing their scarlet letter and have their lives destroyed by unintended pregnancies.
In reality, ending abortion is simply to appease their Evangelist base. How does this make us a Secular Nation?
PS, Ross this is where you and most Americans disagree. I will support your right to have as many pregnancies as you wish but we need to support other views as well. As stated above, it is the women who faces uprooting of her life when more than likely the man walks away. The inconvenient facts prove that these women are too often left living in poverty and their child as well.
1
@Carol: You have only just begun to see the effects of holding establishments of religion above establishments of science under theocracy.
By stalemate I suppose you mean a pause for breath in our steady march on the road to totalitarian gov’t by a corrupt oligarchy. Sadly, we’ll take it.
1
You may call it a stalemate, Mr. Douthat, but I call it a return to congressional oversight of the madman in the White House -- something his spineless Republican toadies were too scared to do.
2
The Republicans lost less seats in the house than any party-in-power in over 80 years. With the gains in the Senate, President Trump can get all the appointments and judges he wants confirmed and there is nothing Shumer and Feinstein can do about it.
2
Well, there's a string of gloomy thoughts, Mr. Douthat. Hope the Dem's prove you wrong.
Hope the Republicans prove you wrong.
Hope everyone proves you wrong.
A few thoughts:
Remember FDR? Of course you do.
One thing strikes me about this man. The innumerable sacks of MAIL--addressed not only to Mr. Roosevelt but to his wife. From ordinary citizens. Talking about ordinary things.
"My boss is treating me unfairly. Can you help?"
"Just lost my job. Can you do something?"
The point is--millions of Americans felt sure, this man was ON THEIR SIDE. This is a man who (as he can) will SPEAK FOR ME. I can RELATE to this man. He can RELATE to me.
Mr. Trump--who doubts it?--tapped into just such a feeling when he won in 2016.
And now it seems so many Americans feel: no, this man does NOT relate to me. this man does NOT speak for me.
The point is, Mr. Douthat: IT MATTERS. It matters when ordinary citizens feel: yes, this is MY government. I may not LIKE everything they do but (in some sense) they're on my side. They're working for me. We're CONNECTED, them and me.
Or not.
And the Republicans? No, sir. They really DON'T have an agenda, do they. They have tied themselves--as by a ball and chain--to Mr. Donald J. Trump.
Who CERTAINLY has no particular agenda. He's making it up as he goes along.
I continue to hope, Mr. Douthat--
--come 2020--
--we turn him out.
And them too, Mr. Douthat. Them too, of course.
There are several observations one can make as one contemplates the reactions. Most telling is the disdain and patronizing attitudes towards rural and non-coastal Americans expressed in the comments. It seems inconceivable to many on these pages that informed people don’t automatically agree with every progressive utterance, and to disagree could only indicate intellectual indolence or racism. Second, the continual litany of excuses that “someone cheated” or “the system is rigged” every time Democrats don’t get what they want is tiresome, and further indicative of Democratic intolerance for differing views.
3
Barack Obama lost the House in his first mid-term election .
Issues take a bit more negotiating to get things done . More
voices are heard. More people find they can find consensus
after all. All was not lost or won on Election day.
I've read half a dozen analyses of the senate outcome and not a single one mentioned the very usual, very lopsided nature of this year's pool of senate seats up for consideration. The GOP went into this with a huge structural advantage.
They also went into the gubernatorial races with a similar advantage and got trounced.
And lastly, Mr. Douhat, the "NeverTrump" conservatives ARE THE NORMAL ONES.
1
I hope the House Intelligence Committee will get Don Jr. under oath and ask him if he told his dad about the Trump Tower meeting with the Russians before the meeting. He will lie again and say no. Meuller will contradict him and he can be charged with perjury. Eventually we just want to pin down the Republican Senate on the question of, is it true that no man is above the law or is Trump the exception. And that is what we run on in 2020-Republican Corruption.
9
Don't cry too much, Ross, that your Grand Poohba of Grift will be held in check by sane politicians.
Since he will not be able to get any of his bizarre policy blurtings enacted, yoUK'll be able to write about him being on the stump for the next two years throwing red meat to your fellow travellers.
3
Not a stalemate. Checks and balances. Can we at least wait and see how this plays out? The framers did not design a one-size-fits-all. They gave us an all (us) fit into three sizes (branches). C'mon. This is gonna be fun. Cliche alert. You knew it was coming. Stay tuned.
2
Sorry, Ross. What you see as a minor detour in national politics I see as a stern rebuke to the politics of division and separation, starting with a resurgent voting bloc of rational Midwesterners who remembered to vote this time around.
In our district (IL-06) we sent a long-time Republican, Peter Roskam, the author of Trump's 0.1% enriching tax plan, to the showers to contemplate his 94% voting support of Dear Leader. He was replaced by [horrors!] a rational, data driven scientist and first-time politician.
As long as single-issue voters are still worried about abortion and/or gun control (pick one, but only one!), we can easily defeat them in places it matters. It just takes brains, some outrage, and a desire for truth.
With Mueller now firmly protected, he can finish the job he's started, indict Trump while in office - now there's a precedent I like! - and drain the swamp the WH has become. We've seen what Evangelical Dominionists can do in terms of "policy" - it's our turn now. Bye, Felicia.
5
"hysteria"? Outrage at a President who openly harasses and demeans women is "hysteria?" And a record number of women elected, a record number of women of color elected, and the first women from groups routinely marginalized by the Republican party is a return to standoff? I am so tired of ignorant, myopic white men getting to share their incredibly limited view of the world. Ross needs to step aside, stop talking, and start listening to a woman or a person of color for a second.
6
It's not a return to anything. That is Douthat what-about-ism nonsense. This is the beginning of checks and balances after years of a craven GOP control of congress. This is Douthat's darling Nunes returning to obscurity and a return to constitutionally mandated oversight, something Douthat's party has decided no longer applies. Maybe, even, the NYT will jettison some of these Trump-lite opinion writers.
3
If this is such a stalemate as Douthat argues, why are the Dems so happy this morning? Fact is they had the much better night. How do we know? Imagine how they’d be feeling if they hadn’t taken the House. It’s a new ballgame.
4
Demographics are just like seasons. America is becoming less white and a lot younger. Republicans can continue to incite racisists, for 2 years. They can try to enact voter suppression laws. They can suppress the youth vote for 4 years. Then what happens? What happens to the economy in the meantime? Obama’s economy starts to fade in 2019 and Trump’s tax cuts, tariffs, and animosity toward world trade economy sets in?
If the Republican racists, and champions of greed continue to run the show they will be swept away in 2020. Democrats learned that racism is an overt Republican strategy and racists are their base. Democrats know that Republicans have thrown off the veil and chosen the rich over the majority. Republicans have demonstrated that they will take away health coverage and are going after Social Security and Medicare too. Democrats can Label Republicans: as racist, misogynists, the Party of the Rich, parasites of the sick. Labeling starts today.
1
Ross, maybe the outcome isn’t a “stalemate,” but people of good will putting the brakes on an agenda that has turned our country into a place that many of us no longer recognize for the drumbeat of lying, hatred, xenophobia, racism, sexism, flouting of all ethical standards, destruction of the environment, tossing of regulations and open class warfare that has emanated from Washington since the 2016 election.
There - I fixed it for you.
2
Hey, Senate, keep those judges coming. And maybe another SC justice or two.
ok, ross. you can call it a stalemate. i'll take it happily. a democratic house puts the brakes on trump's madness. it's a start. now to turn this stalemate into checkmate. let's hear from Mueller.
2
Reading the Tea Leaves, 2018 will be the last republican victories in Florida for likely decades....Democrats are going to get 1.5 million potential voters. 2020 will again be fantastic Florida watching.
3
Republicans lie and cheat to win. Lets get rid of voter suppression and gerrymandering, and watch what happens.
1
"There is no conservative governing agenda at the moment; there is only a desire not to be ruled by liberalism."
But there is an agenda. And it will be carried out by the conservative judges that you cherish above all things. Social conservatives may not care about anything other than the Supreme Court but that court was still built to primarily serve GOP donors, not you. That agenda will be to weaken worker rights and gut worker friendly policy, to further weaken democracy so that the GOP can continue winning elections without moderating on anything, and to shield the president from oversight.
Given your pretenses I would think you'd at least acknowledge the double edged nature of solid Republican control of the courts. But since you've had no trouble rationalizing conservative judicial overreach for the last twenty years, I imagine you'll be OK with the next twenty.
2
America deserves what it got: A stalemate. At this point, we lack the resolve to come together collectively as a nation. The upheaval, socially and politically, will continue.
"Settle for a stalemate"? How incredibly pessimistic. We Democrats did well. Voter turnout was excellent, which can be a battle in and of itself. Even in the races we lost, most were very close, including Texas and Florida. We got the House back.
It will be up to the Democrats not to squander these victories, and they also need to be more inclusive - address the concerns of rural, suburban and those Americans, like myself, who are a bit more to the left than many. I'm very happy we kept Cuomo and Joe Morelle, by the way.
3
Douthat: "The political strategy for Republicans after Trump’s victory should have been obvious: Seal the working-class realignment with a dose of economic populism, hold the suburbs by dialing back the Trumpian excesses." This assumes that the Republican party is primarily concerned with winning elections. On the contrary, it seems more focused on serving the interests of the one percent. Politicians who advance its agenda and later lose elections because of it can be sure to land a cushy job as a lobbyist serving those same interests. Whether they win or lose, it they do fine in the end as long as they can pass tax cuts and deregulate the economy while they are in power.
2
For me the election confirmed four things:
1. The majority (which predominates in urban and many suburban locations) is repulsed by Trump and leans moderate to progressive on most issues.
2. There is a very strong, energized, and loyal minority (that predominates in rural areas and smaller communities) that loves Trump and everything he stands for.
3. Our system of representation and voting (equal representation of states in the Senate, the electoral college, the first-past-post voting system, state control of electoral districts and elections, few limits on campaign funding, the process for appointing judges) ensures that the red minority will remain as powerful or more powerful than the blue majority for years to come.
4. The only way the Democrats will ever get real power is (a) if the Constitution is fixed—something that would probably require a revolution as the Republicans have too much power and no will to fix it—or (b) something drastic happens (like a huge economic collapse) that shakes the red minority from its current worldview.
So while I'm glad that Trump is now checked a bit by the House, I still have little hope for the division in American politics to end or for America to get back on a path toward progressive change. I think we're still stuck deeply in our rut and the wheels may come off the wagon before we can push ourselves out of it.
2
Me thinks that the term "rebuke" is a little strong for an only slightly-better-than-average performance of the out-of-power party in the house and a significant setback for that out-of-power party in the Senate.
And while Ross and I might credibly accused of gilding the lily a bit, Ross seems to be having more difficulty in getting the gold leaf to stay on his than I am on mine.
And if any of those on the left think that they are going to get traction on an impeachment of either Trump or Kavanaugh, they are really in the realm of self-delusion absent any serious and well documented criminal charges.
Of course, there is little that will stop a Democratic-led House from going on the search, but they do so at the peril of looking as unhinged as were Feinstein, Booker, and Harris during the Kavanaugh hearings.
(And, whether the left likes it or not, the performance of their "team" in the Kavanaugh hearings played a significant role in the Republicans gaining a stronger hold on the Senate.)
6
All the Democrats could hope for was a return to stalemate, since it wasn't a presidential election year. I sure wish they had done better, and Trumpism had been soundly repudiated. But then I remind myself that this is still the USA.
2
This was a great night for the President. 1)Where he went, his people won. 2)No Republican will ever take a side against him again. 3)He won the Senate which means that he will never be convicted of the two or three impeachable offenses with which he can be credibly charged. 4) When the recession happens and when his base is adversely affected by his policies, he has the House to blame. 5) The Senate can now pack every federal court in the country in order to defeat any states' progressive agendas. It will no longer matter who makes the laws in states if the oligarchs can strike down state laws in federal court. WTFU, people. The decks will be further stacked in 2020 after more states gerrymander and enact voter suppression laws that the newly right-wing federal courts will uphold.
6
Good analysis by Mr. Douthat. This certainly is a different morning than that of two years ago. The Trump era is over. Now we can all go back to sleep. But I have compassion for the media people who are all going to have to find something else to write about.
1
Let's not forget that we are in a period of realignment---which means both parties at this point have confused narratives. The Republicans, as best I can determine, are pushing a confused mix of establishment Republican policies with Trumpian version of populism---heavy on racism/light on middle class benefits. The democrats are pushing a confused mix of FDR liberal policies and anything but Trump. The democrats are better positioned, especially with Nancy Pelosi in charge, to compose a coherent narrative that goes light on thed anti-Trump message and heavy on middle class relief message. Last night Ms. Pelosi was reeling off a series of legislative initiatives she plans to introduce---student loan relief, fixing Obamacare, middle class tax cut, infrastructure projects---that will form the foundation of the democratic narrative. The Republicans on the other hand will continued to muddle around with a tired supply side message and what will become a tired Trump message--- anything but what the democrats propose.
1
It will be interesting to view how the national electorate reacts to the new Democratic chairpeople of House committees. The vitriol from the far Democratic left has only begun. You think the last two years were gridlock and dissension, wait for the upcoming two. Democrats, as their leadership is presently composed, are completely incapable of governance. The suburbanite voters, that voted Democrat this cycle, will return in 2020. The 2018 mid-terms should be declared a draw.
4
The Blue House win is a start, but It will take more than one "inoculation" to cure America of it's Trumpfection. Examining Trump's taxes and protecting Mueller's report will do the job.
The American democracy is at stake and that is why Assistant Attorney General Rod Rosenstien must IMMEDIATELY send Congress what ever parts of the Mueller report are ready. Tonight might be the last night that it may be possible.
Trump will fire Rosenstien and bury the evidence with the help of the GOP lame ducks.
3
Go whistle your dog whistle somewhere else, Ross.
If trying to stand against racism, emolument, xenophobia, kidnapping, misogyny, the destruction of our democratic institutions, attacks on the press, “alternative facts”, Nazis, dangerous lows in civility and decorum, and gerrymandering is “hysteria”, then bring it.
But don’t think we didn’t pick up on your less than subtle attempt to take a swipe at the women who made gains last night (and their supporters).
Wow, Ross, guess I hadn’t pegged you as the insecure male type.
I congratulate the Republicans for having re-elected 2 House members who are under indictment (Hunter, CA; Collins, NY) plus one deceased brothel owner (Hof, NV).
5
We don't live in a representative democracy. That is a fairy tale.
3
A stalemate of hate. Regardless of yesterday's results, the hatred not only continues, it intensifies. If you're a Republican, remember how you felt that November morning in '08 as well as for every day of the next eight years. If you're a Democrat, remember how you felt that November morning two years ago and how you're going to feel every day for what will probably be the next six years. Hatred of evil by both sides for everyone but themselves. That's the real and insoluble gridlock we're all suffering from with hardly an end in sight.
Let's hope the results of Mueller's investigation prove that the light at the end of the tunnel isn't just another train.
1
Very wise words that describe the outcome perfectly. Trump blew his chance to get a real majority by being more than an empty-worded fraudster on economic justice. Dems blew their chance to expand their bare popular majority by embracing social-justice extremists while still cozying up to corporate America and big donors.
3
If the best option to defeat Trump in 2020 is named Mueller, the Democratic party may lead the house but is still a mess.
1
A “stalemate” may be just a short term situation.
The NY Times maps show massive dents in once prime Republican armour from Orange County to the South Carolina Coast. Long term erosion of the high bluffs may have set in.
1
Problem - white longevity!
1
The United States is a federal system, and a republic. The only democracy we have is found within the States. The Democrats need to remember that. As far as I can see from the maps, their only seats in the House in the South are the ones that were gerrymandered to ensure that blacks could elect representatives to the House.
The Democrats have found themselves in the same wilderness they were in after Jimmy Carter. One would think that they would have learned from history, but it would seem that they haven't.
The single greatest force in this election was incumbency.
5
Hey, I feel a whole lot better this morning when it comes to politics. A stalemate, I do not think so. I rather say, a new day and a new way is at hand.
106
@SLF At worst this checks Trump and the destructive Republicans from totally demolishing this country.
3
@SLF
Exactly.
If either party wants to get anything done, they will both have to behave like they are adults, and work together.
That should be interesting to watch.
The Democrats have two years to educate the electorate to value policies that Trump has been sacrificing. If the electorate has not been convinced, for example, of the necessity of meeting ecological issues head-on, the Democrats will not break through. There are young Democrats ready to go forth and take the lead, but to what good if tomorrow's electorate has the same values as today's?
1
Mr. Douthat writes:"Democrats obviously want to win purple and red Senate seats, but they want to win them the way they just lost in Texas, with charisma and mobilization rather than with ideological compromise."
Surely Mr. Douthat must realize the notion that Democrats are unwilling to come to the table on policy issues is disingenuous at best. The GOP strategy has been intransigence at every turn, the most memorable being Mitch McConnell’s infamous proclamation that his goal as Senate majority leader was to make Obama a one-term President. Or this doozie: “One of my proudest moments was when I looked at Barack Obama in the eye and I said, ‘Mr. President, you will not fill this Supreme Court vacancy.” Not to mention the numerous bills Senator McConnell has prevented from being fairly considered or voted upon.
No, Mr. Douthat, blame for the lack of “ideological compromise” rests most squarely on the shoulders of a willfully obstinate Republican Party.
4
It isn't a stalemate. It the start of a process to pick apart this terrible Republican regime, which despises democracy , hates the free press, serves the rich, rules by fear, and lies non-stop. This remediation effort will begin with legislation to support the Affordable Care Act and committee action to subpoena Trump's tax returns.
The large majority of the country in fact supports most of the progressive agenda, even though the right has sidetracked the country by sowing discord at every opportunity. But it won't last. It may take until 2024, but it won't last.
5
Too bad we won't get effective governing and a return to compromise action for the common good. I guess settling for a stalemate is better than what could have happened....
what I don't understand is how the rural voters think their lives will be better with the current occupant and his ilk? is fear and loathing of "the other" more motivating than health care?
2
It seems inevitable that the Democrats will take the role of Ahab to Trump's white whale. As of now, it looks like two years of chaos and hysteria will lead to two more years of chaos and hysteria.
@J. In 2014 the repubs took the house back. It's how we "do" things now.
EVEN WITH having to get to the edge of town (with no public transit) to the only polling station, having to present the 37 pieces of new ID that republicans demanded, not being sure your info was correct, and then being purged for it, or just being purged for no reason other than a comma misplaced, standing in line all day, having to take off work and not being paid for it, being deluged with the massive amounts of misinformation, having the voting machines break down for no apparent reason, trying to combat the racism, the misogyny, the hatred ...
EVEN WITH all of that, Democrats took back the house and are now a check on this Presidency.
I'll take it...
9
When I look at her blouse, the pattern I see is a bunch of skulls. Which about sums up how I feel about the amount of red still on the election maps.
1
It's like this Ross. America wants to grow, wants to embrace the 21st century, but the older whiter more conservative America, wants to slow them down. America will get there, it is tired of the old old ways but it does not yet know how, it does not yet have faith in its youth or in its women or in its non white citizens, to do the right thing, so it hesitates. It comes from hundreds of years of white man dominance, of Christianity dominance, when the truth is, America is one of the most diverse countries on the planet, it perhaps has a representative from every country on earth. White Christian men who dominate, along with their white Christian women, do not want to give up their control, yet, because they are nervous about what they will lose, whether it will be chaotic, disruptive and will they lose their position privilege and control. This is work in progress, at the speed of molasses, but we will get there. For the sake of my children and grandchildren I hope they see it, if not in my lifetime.
7
@Petey Tonei. So you're saying the places we get the majority of our immigrants from should be our new model for the 21st century? Chaotic, over populated, failed economies, non existent education systems, corrupt governments? That's your 21st century vision?
1
@Petey Tonei It is not a question of speed only but of direction.
And there is another problem of speed that Americans don't understand because they don't care about the rest of the world ,it is the crucial problem of ecology .Here completely absent in the debate of American politics .So, your grand children might have colossal problems and chaos to live with in the future instead of the optimistic progress you believe in for them now .
1
@Al, history tells us that white Christians created plenty chaos wherever they spread Christianity by the sword. They disrupted ancient civilizations of highly sophisticated Aztecs. "In 1493, just one year after Columbus’s famous voyage, Pope Alexander VI published a bull dividing the new territory between Spain and Portugal—provided the natives were converted to Catholicism. As Hernán Cortés tore through the Aztec Empire, he was following a letter of instruction that said, “The first aim of your expedition is to serve God and spread the Christian faith.”
Not to mention the Spanish Inquisition and the medieval dark ages.
Today in the 21st century, America is in a unique position to use intelligence, technology, highly energized hard working immigrant drive, towards building a one in a kind civilization that represents its multiplicity and diversity of thoughts ideas innovation, without having the wrappings of (sometimes authoritarian) homogeneous societies like Japan China Singapore or monochromatic white Europe. We are up for this challenge.
1
Today these newly-minted Democrats in the House begin to run for re-election. They will find themselves buried at the bottom of House committees that will make it difficult to stand out - or deliver dollars to their home district. Many will find themselves living in their office, showering in the House gym and racing to catch a plane home every weekend. Congratulations!
1
This is a great win . . . for President Putin. If by "stalemate" you mean internecine war, political gridlock, and even deeper divisions among the American electorate, everything's going according to the Russia's plan.
@jrinsc. Are you referring to the Russia that has had more sanctions put on it in 2 years of trump than 8 years of BHO? The Russia that now faces a Ukraine with lethal aid given to it by trump, something BHO never did either? That Putin and Russia?
1
@Al
Current sanctions will have little effect on Putin personally; like President Trump, he's most interested in his own personal power. The Magnitsky Act is the sanction Putin and his oligarchs would love removed, something passed with strong bipartisan support in 2012 under President Obama. (The infamous "Trump Tower" meeting in June 2016 was about getting rid of that act.)
The point of my comment is that Putin is playing the long game, hoping to sow division and "stalemate" in the American electorate. Starting with the 2016 election interference, he was incredibly successful. That helps him project power both at home and internationally by saying "see, American democracy is corrupt and dysfunctional too." It also lessens American influence in the world, which greatly benefits his power.
On an unrelated note, I notice you use the names "Trump" and "BHO." When people refer to "BHO" or "Barrack Hussein Obama," what they're usually pointing to is the "Hussein" part (i.e., Hussein reminds people of "Saddam Hussein," which, of course, must mean "Muslim terrorist"). Why not President Trump and President Obama, as befits the office?
@jrinsc. I find it difficult to use president with trump. That's why I use small case. I don't like him. I do think there are some good things being done and he could still be a positive factor in the world but he can't get out of his own way.
Despite having a majority in Congress and a conservative majority in the Supreme Court, Trump has persistently excused his failures by whining that “ . . . the Democrats won’t give us the votes”.
Democratic control of the House may moderate or prevent some of Trump and the GOP’s most egregious goals and impulses, but it also provides Trump with a convenient whipping boy and easy target.
Count on his blaming every problem, issue, and failure over the next two years on the Democrats. Whoever becomes Majority Leader in the House will be immediately demonized, and if Nancy Pelosi retains the job expect jaw-dropping levels of misogynistic vitriol.
Sadly, I expect the Vulgarian-in-Chief will gleefully wallow in the mud he’ll be throwing at everyone and everything that displeases him. It’s just who he is.
2
No: Democrats obviously want to win purple and red Senate seats, but they want to win them the way they just lost in Texas, with charisma and mobilization rather than with ideological compromise. So they’re left waiting, as before, for demography or a recession to deliver them that opportunity.
I'll accept the strategy above over the white nationalism you and your party espouse. You may pretend to despise your party's leader, Ross, but you crave his attention like many of his victims did before they were kicked to the curb. What does your church say about worshiping false idols?
4
Ok crank up the hate machine, Pelosi is in power! The republicans and Trump will harangue, spend tens of millions to defame, insult and dehumanise.
What does this tell us about the U. S? War will continue inside the cauldron and for sure somewhere (Iran) outside.
As a European and second time voter in the US, I find the conception of politics for Americans to be too much of a farce : the little flags, the cookies at the untidy polling places , the " I voted " sticker ( I hate it ! ) ,the millions of dollars rallies with stagelike lighting and music, the wild and noisy TV shows with jingles and giggles , but no profound political debate with arguments like in Europe . American politics are flashy and void of spirit like their constituants.
4
What Democrats need is someone to lead them out of the woods. They are winding aimlessly bumping into the trees. A few find an opening and make it out, but most are lost. They are looking for someone with the vision, charisma, experience, intelligence, and eloquence to lead the pack. Beto O'Rourque has all those things except experience. So somehow either a national person needs to step forward (like Bloomberg is doing) or O'Rourke needs to lower his head and get enough experience doing something to try again. Maybe he should move to Vermont or Maine and run for the Senate. Take over for Bernie or kick Susan Collins out. Remember Trump had ZERO governing experience. It can be done. Just need the right person. At the right time. In the right place.
1
@Walking Man. BHO had nearly zero experience and basically zero accomplishments before 2008. Yeah, it can be done.
2
Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper.
The newly electric representatives will not take their seats until January 3, 2019. Trump still has two months to push legislation through a Republican-control Congress no longer reluctant to vote on controversial issues during an election year. The House is likely to act on such measures as immigration reform before the year is out.
However, other than tax reform—which has already been achieved—Trump never had much of a legislative agenda. His most controversial acts have been to enforce existing laws. For example, existing laws already calls for the arrest and detention of illegal border crossers and the removal or deportation of all aliens unlawfully residing in the United States, not just those who commit violent crimes. The newly elected Democratic representatives can’t change these laws or make new laws to counter the Trump agenda because Republicans will still control both the Senate and the White House on the morning of January 3,
2
Something tells me that Beto O'Rourke could have climbed onto a winged horse and flown into the senate with a spear made of lightning, and Ross Douthat would be all like, "Whoa, hey, let's not act like the Democrats have any momentum here, okay?"
In writing, "Trump critics on the right will feel a little better than O.K., since now the House can check and investigate our morally challenged president while the Senate keeps confirming conservative judges," the "Trump critics" are actually one critic, you. You shamelessly pretend this is what Trump critics on the right all want by linking to your previous op-ed where you explained how the continuing destruction of the separation of church and state is your one priority.
Purported right-wing Trump critics like Bret Stephens fully support Trump except for very different things, like tariffs, because he’s the resident Wall Street autocrat, while you’re the resident Christian theocrat. All you purported Trump critics are nothing but enablers. You each push your own separate vision of how GOP authoritarian power is best exercised, while still enthusiastically support Trumpian autocracy/theocracy.
You’re nothing but a modern day Girolamo Savonarola, condemning anything you disagree with "as occasions of sin." Your destruction of the US Constitution is a modern day version Savonarola's famed "bonfire of the vanities" in which he burned many of civilizations greatest treasures, including works of Ovid, Propertius, Dante, and Boccaccio. Mitch McConnell will keep transforming the judiciary into a Christian theocratic body and an arm of the GOP. It’s a violation of everything the US Constitution stands for, but since you want to burn it to ashes, it's a good thing, right?
The 2 years of hysteria and chaos were created by the media and they are solely responsible for the divide in our country. We have had much worse presidents in our history but the actions of the media are some of the most unprofessional and irresponsible that I ever remember. President Trump, while not polished or guarded like most typical politicians has accomplished a lot in the last two years. He is outspoken and rough but what you see is what you get. The media has taken every opportunity to bait him for their own agenda and they are enjoying readership like they haven't had in years because of it. Creating chaos and hysteria is what has created this new found interest in reading the news and so when President Trump calls it Fake News he is correct. It is being manufactured to increase sales and wealth and interest. There is no longer such a thing as unbiased reporting and because so many of the outlets are left-leaning that is what you get. It is
4
Stalemate? Really? Trumpublican, of which Douthat s a member, still run everything-- the Senate, the White House, the Media (more people watch FoxNews, and tune into the Sinclair Group), 501C4's, where anybody can all my candidate a gang rapist and get away with it, Governorships, state legislatures, state appellate courts. No, a postponement of the end of Democracy-- for the nest two years, is all that has happened. Newspapers make a ton of money of this controversy. Douthat has shown himself to be 'moderate', in that he does not think all autocratic ideas are good, but he has clung to the old rugged cross Trump [sic].
What “end to chaos and hysteria”? The chaos, hysteria and division are coming from the White House. How else could one party rule by a compliant party end up in chaos? That should be a prescription for stultifying order, not a chaotic mess. And hysteria from the chaos....does a democratic house stop Trump from mobilizations of the military to fight civilians on foot hundreds of miles away? Who takes away his Tweets threats of nukes or stops his praise of violence against journalists?
Thanks Ross,
Trump’s brand of incivility, racism, lying and bullying did not sit well with suburban voters who went for Democrats this time. While a significant portion of America, mostly rural America but also a significant chunk of urban and suburban America, did vote for this brand, regardless, the majority of Americans have spoken.
Trump does not represent the majority of America and its values.
Good for America.
if the democrats can get past mass immigration and identity politics and offer something for working people, unions and the shrinking middle class they might get real traction. From BHO bailing out banks and especially bankers and the crooks on Wall Street to repeated tax cuts for the top and corporations (from the right) the average guy knows that the government isn't working for them. The left seems far more interested in making sure DACA people get citizenship and the borders stay porous than helping regular people get ahead. The right plays on these fears and the left ignores them.
2
Voting yesterday was a serious violation of my conscious because of the backpedaling of both parties. Itr is a serious violation of human rights and I can't see how this is permitted.
I would agree with your characterization of the last two years as 'chaos,' if you are referring to the White House, but 'hysteria' carries too many negative female connotations.
Please choose a different word to describe our President and his excitable tweets full of arbitrary capitalizations, misspellings, mis-speakings, and outright lies.
Consider these three factual things:
(1) The GOP has waged a vicious assault on representative democracy for years.
Firstly via over-the-top prejudicial gerrymandering to leverage GOP power in legislatures. No Party should be able to weaponize redistricting like the GOP has; no true honest American Party should do it even if they legally can. Blatantly disgusting.
Beyond that GOP suppression of voting really rivals that of top-notch Banana Republics.
Procedurally they create barriers to voting that generally impact those more likely to vote against the GOP. Essentially disenfranchising citizens that have every right and reason to vote against them.
Psychologically they diminish the reasoned vote by breeding apathy, cynicism, fear mongering, and confusion. The GOP's wanton disregard for the truth of matters and rules of evidence/civility are encased in a well financed and orchestrated propaganda machine. Elegantly sinister.
The GOP needs this trickery to survive. Overall it makes them seem about 10% more representative of the USA than they should be. Important because they are a 42% Party really.
(2) The MAJORITY is grossly underrepresented. Even given above trickery the Ds garner more overall votes almost always - this election an example. Yet the GOP rules! Think about that - especially in context of below.
(3) The GOP - MINORITY PARTY - is about to tie-up this Country for DECADES with a regressive plutocratic favoring SCOTUS. That is NOT how it should be!
Stalemate? Checkmate when the House discovers where the bodies are buried.
1
Ross -- when you start talking about the court, it sees like you are reading a different history than the rest of us. You have said consistently that the Senate is trying to protect us from a liberal drift of the court ... and not once do the words "Merrick Garland" get mentioned. He was NOT a liberal -- and senators from both sides of the aisle believed he was appropriate and competent. And how you or anyone can defend his "non-imation" as anything other than a travesty of our system is inconceivable. The ruling party gets to make the nominations -- on the back of a technical electoral college victory (yet another perversion of our system). So let's not pretend there is a mandate for your vision. Or that that the fulfillment of that vision was fairly won. This is politics -- not a reflection of the desire of the people. If the people's voice were taking into consideration, Merrick Garland would be on the court. Kavanaugh would not. And the court would NOT be the liberal travesty you lay out.
1
We progressives are playing a rigged game, run by conmen.
The majority are being ruled by the minority, and this liar-in-chief.
This is so unhealthy for our country, that a Supreme Court seat was stolen from a legitimately elected president, for instance, and even that the presidency was now chosen by a minority in 2 of the last 5 presidential elections.
But keep pretending that this is okay, Mr. Douthat.
Keep pretending that conservatives are winning with ideas and not with cheating.
Keep your head in the sand and pretend that running on hate, race-baiting, lying, gerrymandering, racist robot-calls, walls and demagoguery is a "stalemate."
How you and Mr. Brooks and Mr. Stephens continue to spin things really takes my breath away, and not in a good way.
Mr. Douthat mislabeled President Trump’s policies as populist. Many Republican candidates won on the coattails of President Trump’s racist, anti-democratic Nationalism. Mr. Trump declared himself a Nationalist even qualifying first “Nationalism” was a bad thing but he would declare anyway. It is a bad thing. Mr. Trump can redefine right and wrong to justify wrong all he wants, he can conflate nationalism with patriotism - two terms that have opposite meanings - but nationalism remains a political movement of exclusion of those deemed undesirable, sub-human, and disloyal; it is corrupt by nature because it is humanly amoral.
Rejection of American, democratic, and human values continues as long as a Nationalist sits in the White House.
134
Nationalist, populist. What has happened to the brass tax category of pure evil?
14
@Jon Wane
Brass tax category of pure evil?
I that similar to the steel nail category or the silver spoon variety? The rubber spike type?
Would seem to me that you are establishing yourself as less that informed with your remark.
2
@Kathy White...
Rejection of America, democratic, and human values continue as long as the left continues to deny the democratically established will of The People.
Ironic, isn't it, Ms White, that your views of the nature of our democracy seem to neglect that we ARE a nation, and that, by definition, all of our politics at the federal level tends to be nationalistic.
1
The only chaos and hysteria are on the pages of newspapers. Walk the streets, all is well. keep calm and see the big picture. Despite his absurd tweets and words, Trump's policies (some of which I don't like) are not dramatically impacting citizens of the United States.
Jobs, peace, wage growth. Yawn.
the vitriol and outrage in the media is in stark contrast to what it we may actually experience in the world. The sky is not falling.
Let's all try to deeply listen to those with different views today, and hope that civil dialogue can resume in this country.
2
The battle between city mouse and country mouse continues. The house is supposed to be representative government close to the people, but gerrymandering has aided in blunting its effectiveness. Urban and suburban areas need large and progressive government to handle the requirements of concentrated populations. Rural and small town America is fearful of progress and feel they don't need to support progressive policies. Until concentrations of populations occur in red states this divide will exist. Democrats will have to do a better job of reaching out while maintaining their hold on voters who live in large metro areas.
3
Democrats convincingly flipped the House: proof that democracy is still alive. House seats are closer to the voters and less likely to be swung by party money and big donors, corporate or otherwise. Senate seats are better protected – for both parties –by term lengths and party and corporate cash. Case in point: in NY 19th, voters rejected a first term Republican incumbent, John Faso, for a new face, Antonio Delgado, despite the Faso campaign's overt racist ads. We had opportunities to meet Delgado and hear him up close. We liked what we heard and saw. On the other hand, Gillibrand cruised to an easy Senate victory without doing any significant face-to-face campaigning. She is entrenched, for better or worse depending on your party affiliation. I realize this is just one part of the equation, but it's a big one.
Douthat's most telling comment about conservatives (including himself) is that there only motivation at the moment seems to be "not to be ruled by liberalism." Does he realize how strange this sounds? To the extent (and I think it is very much) about social issues, like identity politics, this is little more than mean-spirited. As an electoral strategy, it is downright hateful.
3
At this point I’m willing to settle for a republic-saving House majority. Sorry for the “low bar” but one must be realistic. If the Democrats are really playing the “long game” in trying to regain some semblance of power, the House is a great place to start.
“The mob” strikes back and should be proud of it.
You cannot overlook that the House now has a Majority of Democrats, which means change is in the wind, not stand-offs. Those Republicans serving in the House who were "Never Trumpers", will join them in some voting. For instance Infrastructure programs needed across the country. Even Republican House members have people who need good paying jobs in their Districts.
Even Republican House members have Dreamers in their Districts. I think there can be compromise there when it come to Immigration.
And some Republicans will vote to protect Mueller's Investigation.
They understand that we, as a Nation, need clear answers with regards to Russian interference in the 2016 Election.
I do not think there will be the stand-off you are writing about Ross. Remember, the Democrats have been the "adults" in the room.
3
Douthat again ignores the obvious, that except for the peculiar, rare, election map advantage Republicans had this time, Democrats would have taken not one but two houses. In 2020 we will see a reversal of that advantage, as well as 24 months of combined Democratic legislative initiatives and investigations. And let’s not forget, Bob Mueller.
The GOP assault on the truth will be tough to maintain now that the Democrats have subpoena power.
3
Let's celebrate! Return to stalemate beats being rolled. We're headed in the right direction.
5
So as blue state resident, not only do I have subsidize rural America but I have to give them all the power as well.
So minority rule is the GOP strategy?
9
@Sterling Minority rule has been the Republican playbook for years. Like other conservatives, Douthat doesn't like to acknowledge the way unconstitutional gerrymandering and voter suppression efforts affected Democrats' path to a majority. North Carolina has been voting under districts found by federal courts to be unconstitutional because of either racial or political gerrymandering for at least three election cycles. The Republicans just continue to run the clock with appeals and then --oops-- it's too close to the next election to change district lines.
2
"... a country that needs a governing majority..."
We've had a non-governing majority the last two years.
8
Democrats failed again outside of cities and actually got even worse results in rural areas. The big failure was the lack of turnout among the young. For all their claims of registration, they didn't vote. Sad.
4
"without finding way to turn a popular-vote advantage into the Senate majority"
John Barrasso got only 157,000 votes, but that was enough to re-elect him to the Senate from Wyoming.
(Beto O'Rourke got over 4 million votes, yet "lost".)
Since the Republicans deny democracy by governing to their donors' benefit, then lying in their donor-funded ads ( eg claiming to protect insurance for pre-existing conditions, protection that did not exist before Obamacare and which they voted repeatedly to repeal) perhaps the most effective way to "fix" the US Senate is for 55,000 patriotic Democrats to move to Wyoming.
3
@Lynn
There is a reason the GOP buys Wyoming and Montana. With fewer citizens than many coastal cities, they come cheap.
3
@Lynn. One problem is rural states like WY and ID don't offer much in the way of welfare benefits. Unlike magnets like California (12% of us population and 35% of welfare recipients) you're not paid to have kids out here. Places like Jackson or sun valley are full of rich old white people and Hispanics (legal and illegal) doing all the work, but that's not enough to change the bottom line in blue collar states.
Eye opening comment and so clear and to the point. 2 senators for each state, even if the represent very few
1
What we've achieved is (an albeit partial) restoration of checks-and-balances, not, as Douthat would have it, a "standoff".
14
@hnj So the glass is half full, *not* half empty.
1
EVEN WITH having to get to the edge of town (with no public transit) to the only polling station, having to present the 37 pieces of new ID that republicans demanded, not being sure your info was correct, and then being purged for it, or just being purged for no reason other than a comma misplaced, standing in line all day, having to take off work and not being paid for it, being deluged with the massive amounts of misinformation, having the voting machines break down for no apparent reason, trying to combat the racism, the misogyny, the hatred ...
EVEN WITH all of that, Democrats took back the house and are now a check on this Presidency.
I'll take it...
83
“Fortunate elctoral college win’ will be mirrored by “fortunate senate win” Does no policy maker or commentator in America question the wisdom of a system which treats state with a low population as equals of those with large populations.........?
4
@Bemused Observer Well, that’s like living in a marsh and complaining that the ground is soggy. It’s the lay of the land. Any school kid can tell you that was the deal to get any Constitution at all.
But Ross, we've had a stalemate for the past two years under Republican control. Yes, they passed a huge tax cut for the wealthy. Yes, they've appointed scads of right wing judges to the courts. Yes, they've rolled back lots of environmental regulations. But what else has the GOP done on anything of substance? Nada. They had the chance to do immigration reform, but the Republicans are secretly divided between their xenophobic base and their rich donors, whose businesses are extremely dependent on cheap (read: illegal) labor. They did not repeal Obamacare, although they've been hacking away at it, probably because they know that repealing-and-not-replacing is a surefire loser with the public. On issue after issue, the Republicans know that their true agenda is unpopular, so they have to tread carefully. If we have to have a stalemate, then by all means let the Democrats join the party, with all of their own internal contradictions. Up with inertia!
4
@ProSkeptic Yikes! That’s the wrong battle cry.
Certainly the stalemate is still a convenient result for those Americans who have already received rich gratifications from the government.
It might be harsher for the Democrats voters who hoped for a more profitable change of policies meeting their expectations.
The ball is in the hands of the smartest Democrats and Republicans in both houses to cooperate and carry through the best compromises, despite the POTUS populism and far right amateurism.
2
Mr. Douthat got his wish: Democratic House and Republican Senate. Appointing judges will proceed apace.
For me, the biggest benefit of a Democratic House is that there will be a way to get whatever Mueller discovers out in public view. That was not certain before this election.
If Democrats are wise, and they often are not, they will work hard to craft policies that address our big problems. They will not be able to implement them unilaterally, but they can make a difference as we move forward.
They should not indulge themselves in the futility of impeachment. That was never a good idea. Even getting the president's tax returns out into public view should not be a priority.
People like progressive policies. They want commonsense gun control, not confiscation of weapons. They want to protect social programs. They want liberty and justice for all. Democrats must pursue those goals but avoid letting the perfect keep them from achieving good.
If Trump is willing to play ball, resist the temptation to reject him. He's not principled and his appeals to hate and fear are damaging to the nation so I doubt that he can be trusted, but play a long game.
Most important: use this opportunity to build a cadre of young Democrats who will lead into the future. There are those among this group of freshmen coming into the House who are smart, articulate and honest. They represent the kind of future we want and need.
10
@Betsy S There is no way to unilaterally implement one’s agenda when one’s party controls only the House of Representatives.
"Even getting the president's tax returns out into public view should not be a priority."
Uh-uh. Nope. We need to see what Trump's got under his fingernails. Need to see to whom this bum's been beholden all these years. Let's see those returns, Makey Greaty.
As usual, Mr. Douthat misses, or more precisely glosses over, the main point.
The main point is, so far, the slow coup is stopped.
So far the fanatical illegality, immorality and insanity of GOP voters, of GOP leaders and of Trump is prevented from a full take-over of the most powerful country in the world.
That is the big news of the day.
18
While I understand the logic of this article, I think it is flawed. Several decades of Democrats moving to the right in an effort to fill the center being left by Republicans moving radically to the right has not accomplished anything.
11
The last two years of total republican control of the government, with no effective legislation being passed, that followed a measured Democratic climb out of a republican caused depression is proof beyond doubt that republicans are totally incapable of governing this country.
It appears as though the electorate is finally waking up to the reality of republican incompetence and corruption. There is hope, but the road ahead is fraught with land mines.
18
@kirk That's fine, it was always going to take longer that one election cycle.
3
Let's keep present Republican President Abraham Lincoln's words during this struggle to find sanity,"A house divided against itself, cannot stand".
Question, would he still be Republican?
The tax cuts and jobs have not resulted in votes from people who benefited. Thus Trumpism will be a slow poisoning of the Republican Party.
6
As a Republican I'm shocked the democrats barely got over the line to take the House. Historically this was on the low end of mid-term turnover - and how will that work with a working majority of 4-5 votes when a dozen+ newly elected democrats swore they would not support Pelosi? After all, it wasn't just former Senator Claire McCaskell who declared they weren't one of those crazy democrats.
1
@Chris Nice try. Actually, Democrats took the house handily. They lost only a net of two seats in their Senate margin and they made big advances in the Upper Midwest.
1
@Chris
there are 6 seats still undeclared in California which will also accrue to the dems.
I wonder How Obama/Democrats would have gone in 2010 if they'd inherited this economy instead of the great recession.
10
One of the most tragic legacies of people like Trump, McConnell, Grassley, Cruz, Zinke, Kelly and their ilk has been to convert older power-stricken white men from conservative keepers of the public trust into a faction of hate-mongering, money-loving, smug and privileged misanthropes. I think that many liberal feminists—men and women alike—now intend to challenge that faction every single day in practical ways in their Congressional workplace. For many of us that’s a victory of magnificent proportions. Republicans can’t stop the enthusiasm that, according to the great American MLK, invariably motivates good people everywhere as they begin to feel the arc of the moral universe tending toward justice. It’s only a matter of time; change is happening.
15
A fine analysis. Above all, Democrats need to improve their optics on immigration. One of the most shocking things to comprehend is that ANY American Citizen of Mexican heritage would support Donald Trump, let alone, many. Mexican Americans and other immigrants turned citizens want effective border controls too. Republicans are winning big time on the bogus but genuine perception that this country faces an existential threat from undocumented/"illegal" immigrants. This perception cannot be waved or argued away with reason. Democrats need a visible response that "proves" they care about effective (compassionate) border control.
5
'There is no 'conservative government agenda': If by conservative you mean people like you, i.e. old-style Republicans, there isn't one for the same reason there isn't a liberal government agenda, neither sector of opinion is in government. But there is quite obviously a Trump/ultra-right government agenda which Republicans (moderate (if they exist) or fundamentalists) have endorsed.
4
At least we now see where the problem areas are.
Time to make a list of states/products to avoid. Florida, I will buy products from Mexico and California. Alabama, no big loss, looks like easy to replace products (we have better local alternatives)
Time to spread the word.
5
I agree with Douthat's diagnosis of an ongoing stalemate.
Unfortunately, Democrats became wedded to avoiding problem-solving by spouting civil libertarian workarounds. And now Republicans avoid problem-solving by luring Democrats into anti-racist hysteria.
In the meantime, issues such as globalization and immigration go completely unaddressed at a philosophical or rational level. Elected officials from both sides have only one job: hold power by stoking anger at the other side.
3
@Sequel
Republicans avoid problem-solving by maniacally focusing on obtaining total control and refusing to govern, and the "hold power by stoking anger at the other side" has been their raison d'etre since the first Nixon administration.
No Ross. The midterms are a band aid that will hopefully stop the bleeding. A stalemate is a thing in chess where no party can win. When a patient is bleeding out and you stop that - it's not called a stalemate.
17
1) Voter suppression works, and works well.
2) Gerrymandering is extremely useful, so expect to see a lot more of it (but yippee for the seven more Governors in the Democrat's column!).
3) For every Democrat-voting woman, there is a corresponding Republican-voting woman. Stop thinking either party can build a majority with women voters. There will never be a "year of the woman" for either party, ever. Deal with it.
America is increasingly undemocratic. Deal with that.
11
@Brian Prioleau
"For every Democrat-voting woman, there is a corresponding Republican-voting woman. Stop thinking either party can build a majority with women voters. There will never be a "year of the woman" for either party, ever. Deal with it."
Actually, and consistently across the last two decades, considerably more women self-identify as Democrats than Republicans:
"More than half of women (54%) identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 38% who say they are Republican or lean Republican. Democrats have held a consistent advantage among women in leaned party identification in Pew Research Center surveys dating to 1992. The current 16-point edge is as large as it has been over the past several years, but somewhat smaller than the 21-point advantage the Democratic Party held among women in 2008."
http://www.people-press.org/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/
2
A standoff is a great deal better than where we have been for the last two years. When you are racing down a hill heading for a cliff, putting on the brakes is a good idea.
PS. and now trump won't be able to stop the investigations into his scams and crimes.
11
Stalemate? I suppose so, if you look at the numbers. But what it also means...and this is too important to ignore....is that Congress will likely return to its indispensable role as a check on the presidency. This is what the current GOP congress failed to do out of ideological and moral agreement with everything that Donald Trump, the most unfit and unqualified and amoral president in U.S. history.
11
I am delighted with the outcome of todays election. Chairmanships in House committees will change, and we can rid the process of scurrying “snitches” like Devin Nunes, (who obviously cares more about the personal welfare of Trump than he does about the citizens of this country). It has been a good day!!
11
No offense but I wish everyone would be quiet for a week.
10
"There is no conservative governing agenda at the moment; there is only a desire not to be ruled by liberalism. So that desire will be fulfilled for two more years and possibly for more — but meanwhile the ability to actually move legislation will be rightfully taken from a movement and a party that had no agenda of any significance to move."
What I see, Ross, is that hate, lies and division won the day. This can never bode well for the country--two parties, two realities, constantly competing interests.
Truth lost the day. The NYT makes a big deal of how the truth matter, and I for one, believes it does. But the truth of the matter is that no matter how much sensible people try to point that out, it gets drowned in the loud, angry noise of the president.
The trend du jour is to jabber about the "soul of the nation." As far as I can see, our soul-sickness is alive and kicking.
You can't build a healthy nation on two versions of reality.
32
Christine quotes Ross on a point we share in each Anglosphere country. Half or more of our populations are politically sticks in the mud, too many who are wilfully slow on the uptake of accepting future possibilities as coming truer each year.
It is quite remarkable how a country, its voters and its supposed political leaders seem to be content with not governing. To some degree I understand the approach of the GOP in that they are trying to secure their sway over society through court appointments and gerrymandering as they know they no longer command a majority of the popular vote. The GOP does not have a democratic mandate and they know it. The challenge with the Democrats is that I am at a complete loss when it comes to their narrative. What are their big ideas regarding the direction of the US, what are the key policies they want to pursue? Where do they want/need to reach across the aisle? With regard to the latter, I am conscious of the fact that the GOP may not want to work with the Democrats but then at least the Dems can say the made a genuine effort at governing. Will the GOP respond in a constructive manner, probably not as they are too internally polarized for that. Oddly enough, I think Trump might. The man has no core believes to speak off and hence has no principles, beyond protecting his wealth. The Dems could offer him a deal to not publish his tax returns. He wants to win and chalking up some legislative wins will make him feel good. Immigration reform could be such a target as there are probably a sufficient number of GOP senators who might work with the dems on that. Healthcare could be another. Trump wants adoring crowds, the dems may be able to offer much more sizable ones.
5
Douthat is correct in noting that a "fortunate Electoral College win" that gave us Trump is just that. The GOP did not run on the low unemployment rate or the strong economy because the voters did not see it that way.
What this election has once again demonstrated is that the country is hopelessly divided. Not as blue and red, but as urban and rural. And, as long as we have two senators from every state - representing 40 million in California and 650,000 in North Dakota - we will have this divide.
Clearly social change and globalization has not touched the rural parts of America, and until that change happens, we will have a country divided.
17
@chickenlover
And in the meantime we hold on to all our myths of an America that existed perhaps only in our minds.
Rural people see themselves as "real" Americans. Crop supports for farmers are good, unemployment checks for urban workers are bad. Rural people have "values", city people are godless liberals. We still have nineteenth century visions of America and rural visions of rugged individualism. In reality we have 350 plus million people living in fixed borders with a global economy. We have too much "me" and not enough "us".
4
Democrats, please do something to take the "open borders" slogan away from the Trumpist GOP.
Take ownership of immigration policy. Aim at centrist sentiments; pathway to citizenship, compromise on some dimensions, and force the Rubio types to either come on board or, in joining the Trumpists, move the GOP further afield. Suburban voters seem ready to hear your ideas.
37
I am not a US citizen.
May I comment:
Vote?
Why don't Americans vote?
Failing to vote in Oz can lead to loss of licence to drive if the fine is not paid.
The electoral role is run by the Federal Government office via the Australian Electoral Commission.
Electorate boundaries are decided by the AEC.
The compulsion to vote is an urge compelled by conscience.
The right to vote according to conscience is not an option for the obliteration of folk who lay in soil and under the sea far from home.
Exercising "The right to vote" is crucial.
If you don't use it you lose it.
November 11 1918 is not to be dusted off.
100 years later Americans and Australians vote.
We share the same soil and the sea where our lads rest.
The value of an independent US Electoral Commissioner might assist the process of voting.
The Commissioner would define boundaries avoiding gerrymandering.
My views are my own and I assiduously avoid interference in US politics.
I note the US deficit is very disturbing and not appropriate for me to remark upon as a foreigner.
I used to be a book keeper.
The Math is best left to a pen with red ink.
Our brothers who share in common sea and soil would love to breathe the breath of folk who enjoy life and call to account idiots.
Just an opinion.
Lest we forget.
17
@Private citizen Of course you may comment! While I always welcome the perspectives of non-Americans, let me clue you in on a couple of things: one of our two political parties isn't really into democracy, unless that party happens to win. One of the two political parties maintains its advantage through an outdated and totally unfair contraption called the Electoral College (and a completely misapportioned US Senate). One of the two parties seeks to maintain said advantage, and will trample on every democratic norm in order to do so. One of the two parties doesn't care a whit for ordinary people, and in order to win they press all sorts of hot buttons among those who are, shall we say, not really doing that well in life. Both parties secretly discourage people from voting, making it far more difficult than it need be. (I live in New York, BTW, that liberal bastion, which has some of the most ridiculous restrictions on voting in the country. As a result, we have one of the lowest voter participation rates in the country.)
Thank you for caring enough about our troubled country to read the NYT and to leave a comment. Australia's a great country. If I weren't so old, I'd consider moving there, if you'd have me.
8
Maybe nit. The house could try to pass 20 major bills in the first 100 days sending them on to the Senate. By that time the senate will have accomplished nothing, but can be guilted into considering some of these bills. If the Senate doesn’t the House can refuse action on any Senate idea,
2
Congrats to all with good news.
As a possible scenario, Mitt could get onto a key committee. He could form a team of several other GOP senators. He would be the new power broker, degrading Mitch if necessary. But he has to work quickly to maintain his new power brokerage.
3
It is hard not to wonder if stand offs would be less of a problem in the USA if gerrymandering, vote purging and voting on a working weekday were put to rest once and for all.
80
Douthat's curiously reasoned piece advises Democrats to win by ceasing to be Democrats. His version of moderation requires a repudiation of abortion rights, a conservative approach to immigration and a willingness to consolidate rightwing domination of the SC by voting to confirm someone like Judge Barrett.
Even from a pragmatic perspective, this advice seems bizarre. Why would GOP voters prefer a Democrat advocating these positions, when a candidate of their own party would embrace them, plus conservative ideas on taxes, healthcare and regulations? While Democrats won control of the House by running candidates who differed from each other on some of these issues, they could not have achieved success by adopting Douthat's recommendations as a general strategy.
His criticism of Trump, on the other hand, makes sense but ignores the man's character. After two years it should be clear to anyone that the president lacks the flexibility that defines a good politician. Trump will not for any length of time restrain his vicious impulses, because those impulses lie at the heart of his nature. He may win reelection in 2020, but he will do so only if his scorched-earth campaign strategy continues to attract support. This same flawed character will prevent him from accomplishing much legislatively even if he does manage to hold on to the Oval Office.
9
A standoff? It's hard to see how it would make that branch less productive than the past two years.
Congress's job is supposed to be oversight. It may take Democratic subpoena power to protect (or restore) the integrity of the 2020 election, census, and other essential government functions.
Split control prevents the unseemly prospect of Democratic committee chairs in both newly-won houses trying to see who can dig further faster into Mr Trump and his administration. Whatever may (or may not) turn up in the next two years of long-overdue oversight and investigation, our divided country has a lot to work through before converging back to one commonly accepted reality.
10
Where is that Democratic surge that should have come after "two years of chaos and hysteria"?
The Democratic House vs Republican Senate. There will indeed be stalemate and a standoff because that reflects US society.
The midterms also delivered Mr. Trump a convenient target for attack during the next two years.
16
House: 48 million voted Democrat to 45 million Republicans.
Senate: 42 million voted Democrat to 32 million Republicans.
For Congress, 90 million voted Democrat and 77 million voted Republican.
That's 13 million more Democrat votes than Republican votes.
Who calls that a stalemate? Who wouldn't call that rigged?
433
@Yuri Asian "Who wouldn't call that rigged?"
Someone that plays by the rules of the game?
10
@Yuri Asian
Not rigged - but good evidence at how this country desperately needs an overhaul of its electoral process. We are being governed by the ideological minority when an overwhelming majority wants progress.
61
@Peter Kriens People who "play by the rules" are usually the ones who set the rules as it favors them and only fools join in (unfortunately the democrats appear to be fools when it comes to working out how to change the rules of the game)
Of course if the rules were changed then the american political system would mostly turn to a one horse system and this would destroy any pretense in their being an actual meaning to the voting system in the first place (as always america as a whole need the conflicting interests to say one thing and do another on a global scale)
6
I have also thought that maybe the Russians are sitting back very satisfied with this election because nothing will get done. Getting something done may mean more government by executive order or the new members of the House challenging their party leadership to work with the Senate to do something. Either can look like chaos and dysfunction to ordinary voters.
I am left of center, but have to admit that you nailed it in this summary. Nobody seems interested in uniting the country and just getting things done.
12
@Ronald C. Pine
For decades the GOP did little but obstruct Clinton, nothing but obstruct Obama. In the majority, Republicans worked every angle to its advantage. Dirty tricks. Most notoriously by denying Obama a Supreme Court pick. And now an hours-old Democratic victory is expected to unite the country? Kiss and make up? No, sir, this was a “h-ll no!” vote against Trump & Friends and their “nationalist” agenda.
3
As a Republican, I'll take it. A first term president almost always loses seats in the Midterms, fully expected here, and happy to see the Senate majority strengthened. Will be fun to see liberal vitriol turn inward for a bit as the battle for House Speaker takes shape. To be continued.
28
The House flipped from Republican to Democrat.
7 more Democratic governorships.
Will be fun to see the Trump tantrum when he realizes that the Democrats control the purse strings, and his agenda is now effectively DOA.
45
@John D
Now maybe we will see trumps tax returns and what a crook he is.
While Kemp down in Georgia removes eligible voters on his own, a crime that not one republican calls out.
But then republicans stop obeying constitutional law ages ago.
56
@John D
It is hoped that the House can now deal with government voter fraud. Remember, if the republicans can't cheat, they can't win.
53
There are some interesting results among the ballot measures. Minimum wages increases won in red Arkansas and Missouri. The measure in Arkansas won with 68% of the vote, which is a resounding victory.
Expanding Medicaid coverage won in deep red Utah, Idaho and Nebraska. And conservative Mormon Utah passed medical marijuana.
The bottom line here is that progressive ideas on minimum wages and healthcare can win even in very Republican areas.
After all, Joe Manchin ran on a guns, conservative judges and Obamacare strategy that seems to have worked well for him. There's a lesson here for the 2020 Presidential hopefuls. Of course, Trump could also learn something from this.
16
@Schrodinger Missouri also passed medical marijuana and the voters were smart enough to pick the best one out of the 3 proposals on the ballot.
1
Mr. Douthat's summary, "A rebuke to Trump in the overall returns, but not a presidency-ending repudiation.", can be restated as:
A rebuke to racism, xenophobia, and fear-mongering in the overall returns, but not a complete this-stops-now repudiation of white-nationalism.
A Democratic House is a start in constraining a hateful President with authoritarian tendencies but we have a long way to go to fix what ails this country:
Far too many Americans share, or at least condone, the hateful beliefs of a President and a party that routinely demonizes other Americans who do not look like them, pray like them, or love like them.
We should be so much better than this.
304
@LT
It's true, I saw Trump supporters interviewed at the poll lines yesterday saying things like:
"He's getting things done"
"He's reduced taxes"
Clearly the Koolaid is being consumed. I think there was deliberate calculation on the R's part to put a 'tax cut' in place so that people voted (11/6/18) before they realized (4/15/19) that they were not participating in the cut part.
Trump's trade 'policies' are already making prices rise and may well cause a major slump before the next election.
30
The neo-conservative march to dumb-down the electorate continues, especially in red states. The percentage of better-educated Americans remains clearly larger in blue states. This comes as no surprise, and should remain a warning to us all.
The most telling fact is that the cultural/racial diversity of our major population centers "somehow" tends to make those areas more blue and less fearful of others.
Best part (if you can call it that) is that the xenophobic fear-mongering works best in those vast areas of the U. S. that are least prone to "foreign" terrorist actions, i.e. fear of fear itself.
23
@LT Racialism is a political loser, as Hillary found out, and it was a pertinent factor in the "blue wave" having disappeared somewhere in the middle of the ocean, never to wash ashore. Please make sure your party keeps its focus on racialism.
2
Great write up of the results of this election by someone whom I disagree with on policy nearly all of the time. Ross again proves he can call it like it is and offer authoritative commentary from the center/right. I've never once voted for a Republican. I always read Douthat.
64
Could not disagree more.
“Democrats obviously want to win purple and red Senate seats, but they want to win them the way they just lost in Texas, with charisma and mobilization rather than with ideological compromise. So they’re left waiting, as before, for demography or a recession to deliver them that opportunity.”
Douthat relies on an underdeveloped thesis that fails to take account of the fact that people (on both sides) want ideological change but both parties refuse to budge on their entrenched positions. It’s not just the democrats. The GOP is enthralled to the Trump machine only because it’s working in their political favor for the time being.
Nuance and disagreement are good. Just please, not from this guy...
14
@Neil Austrian, you're right - it's not just the Democrats that want ideological purity, the Republicans want it too. Ross didn't claim otherwise. He just pointed out that, when you're in the minority, you have to decide whether you stick to that ideological position...or consider whether changes are required in order to once again be in the majority. At least for now, the Democratic positions on key social issues make it very, very hard for them to win Senate seats in rural states - and that may be enough to keep them in the minority in the Senate for a long, long time.
4
It has always come down to Democrats unable to mobilize voters coupled with apathy of millennials.
4
Wait -- roughly 10 days ago, you were hoping for a "midterm split decision". Now it's suddenly a statelmate? Trying to have your cake and eat it too?
And speaking as a Texan, no one realistically thought Beto would beat Cruz. That there was even a bit of a tight margin was amazing. But the blue wave/blue trickle had an effect down ballot. Pete Sessions, appears to be OUT. More importantly to me as a Texan, we flipped some State Senate and State House seats. There's more to today's election than just national stuff.
140
@cathmary
Beto didn't beat him, this time. But look at all he accomplished. Politics is a long game. You will be seeing Beto in the governor's mansion in Texas or we will be seeing him in Washington in the future.
13
@cathmary
Most Democrat congresspeople apparently liked Pete Sessions, so voting him out is not quite the biggest win of the night. Looks like McGovern will be House Rules chair in his place.
1
Douthat continues to prove that he doesn’t get it with his description of the backlash to Trump as “hysteria.” Here’s the truth: the elections actually representative of the country swung sharply toward Democrats. The ‘wins’ by Republicans came in a nonrepresentative body.
The people of this country have spoken and the people and they stand with and among those whose concerns and grievances are so often dismissed as “hysterical.” Douthat and the GOP are a dying breed. Literally.
97
The good news is that stalemate is something Americans know how to do well. We are comfortable with it. Kick the can a little further down the road, avoid the difficult and contentious decisions.
In the specific context of Trump the good news is that the process of destroying the integrity of government has been slowed a little, the humane forces can garner some hope that a momentum shift is occurring, and the Dear Leader Himself may have a slightly better sense of the limits of his core message's appeal. On the hope front one immediate but mostly hidden benefit may be that the morale of career federal employees will receive a boost -- that some dedicated souls contemplating a departure from public service may opt to stay the course a little longer and see what develops.
14
The Democrats are the Underrepresented Majority, and must behave like it.
Democrats would be wise to not be just obstructionists. It is time for the Democrats in Congress to actually pass bills through the house that they actually want. Show the people the Democratic agenda and Democratic priorities in action.
They must be willing to be held accountable for their policy demands, and be willing to stand by them.
They can’t be like Republicans voting for years to change something and then, when they actually had the chance, realize that they hadn’t really thought it out.
The Democrats need to put forward a program to govern responsibly, honestly, and with a transparency for the American people to judge.
Then they have to be willing to realize that only a portion of that will be passed, because Republicans prefer to obstruct. But here is the difference.
The Democrats have to be willing to use the power of the purse to let government shut down on things they are morally opposed to. They have to show the integrity to say no. They can’t bargain with themselves and should only make bargains for the good of America not out of Republican threats.
Trump will shut down the government trying to get his wall, and the Democrats have to stand tall.
We have a minority Senate and President. They don’t represent the majority. The Democrats do.
50
Not surprisingly, I see the outcome differently than Mr. Douthat.
The Republicans have systematically installed breakers to forestall any blue wave.
We have seen widespread efforts to restrict the legal voting of groups disfavored by the GOP. This practice is an embarrassment to our democracy and should be condemned.
Gerrymandering saved the Republicans a lot of seats. No doubt their losses in the House would have been much worse in free and fair elections.
Then, of course, there is the structural advantage afforded Republicans by the Constitution. Last time I checked, Democratic candidates for the Senate won 9 million more votes than Republican candidates. However, based on anachronism, the votes of citizens in states like Wyoming are much more important than those of citizens in the more populated states. No reason - that is just the way they drew it up (250 years ago.)
But here is the thing. We now have some accountability. Americans will get some insight as to what has been going on while the fox was guarding the hen house. Of course, we know it will be awful: this administration is already the most corrupt in history. But now there will be a more fulsome disclosure.
Then of course there is the Mueller investigation. I suspect that report will be a dose of reality that the GOP would rather forego.
It isn't much but it is a start.
332
@Al Miller
Good post. Like many here have said, the fact that the Dems didn't do better reflects just how badly the Repubs have tilted the playing field in their favor; Georgia is exhibit A with gerrymandering and voter suppression clear for all to see and possibly malfeasance by Kemp and/or his enablers.
While I'm a bit disappointed that Dems didn't do better, their control of the house, coupled with (hopefully soon) Muller's report, is going to shine a big bright light on Trump's lying cheating ways and now the Dems have control of the house they have the ability to start holding Trump's feet to the fire.
Douthat (and loads of other media apparatchiks) continue to annoy me by talking about Trump as if he is a normal right winger - he's not.
The weirdly bright side is that Trump will now likely feel emboldened and continue his outrageous and Draconian 'leadership', as April 2019 passes, people will realize just how big a lie it was that ordinary people would benefit from the Repub's tax reform bill.
Many states have gone to Blue Governorship; Michigan where I live has Gretchen Whitmer, legailized marijuana, and a non-partisan committee to draw the district lines.
Go Blue!
45
@Ted Morton But at the end of the day, if the Republicans are blatantly cheating and not even bothering to hide it, and everyone knows that they're doing it but they continue to face no consequences for doing so... does it matter? Does anything matter?
No matter what gains the left makes, the right just cheats harder, and that's apparently just fine with enough of the country that it's the way things are.
11
@Al Miller "based on anachronism"? The bicameral design of our government is part of what "checks and balances" is all about. The Founders made sure that the big guys couldn't simply run over the little guys. The GOP wins in part by the geography of politics, yes, but they also play the game better. Democrats need to tighten up their platform if they want to win.
2
You're forgetting Chris Kobach, that loyal Boy Scout to Trump. Kobach was supposed to uncover rampant voter fraud in the wake of the 2016 election, and instead he returned home to lead a campaign based on Sarah Palin-esque hubris and faux pas (see https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/kris-kobach-loses-kansas-governors-race.html). The swing to Democrats in Kansas will prove momentous in 2020, as similar states like Iowa (now majority Democrat in the House) realize that they should stop voting against their interests.
And it's not all just about the House. A number of states voted to expand Medicare, something their Republican governors refused to do. So health care will remain an issue over which Democrats will have an advantage.
Finally, with a number of state legislatures and governors turning blue in former Trump-leaning states, the excesses of Republican gerrymandering can at last be checked.
Politics is, after all, regional (if not always local). Given the progressive gains in red states, it was, all in all, a great night for Democrats. For the GOP, not so much.
Call it a stalemate if you like. But that sounds like sour grapes from a sore loser.
34
Ugh.
Look. We should all be celebrating the Democratic capture of the House. Be honest. Trump is not a normal president, regardless of party. He's gotten votes, and inspired votes for Senatorial candidates in Red states, by playing to the ugliest of our national shame: racism, xenophobia, antisemitism. He refers to poor asylum seekers as disease ridden, Jew-funded, Middle Easterner-infested invaders and calls out the army to deal with this "threat." His assault on the free press is astonishing in the US. It fits in better with the kind of despots who murder journalists.
Trump has harmed people. He has committed crimes against humanity on the border. Stealing people's children is a CRIME, it is not a policy.
There is no way Democrats can or should compromise with these outrageous assaults on human decency.
As for anti-choice ideologues: tough. We just sent a lot of women to Washington and elected them to statehouses. We do not want any more theological martinets on the Court. I don't understand how any principled conservative can accept the fact that theology is being rammed down America's throat.
We should not put up with minority rule anymore either. The Red States shouldn't, with their small populations, wield this much power over the rest of us, especially since their policies are so devastating to the planet. Pandering to the fossil fuel industry is not an option, it is suicide.
How I wish that people like Mr. Douthat would recognize this.
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@Sophia I'm guessing Mr. Douthat doesn't have enough clout to change the Constitution in favor of your zip code, even if he does recognize that pressing need.
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@Sophia It's pandering to the green industry that's suicide. As for the fossil fuel industry, economic security requires it's defence. As for Red States wielding power over the majority of America, the fact is Red States are the majority of America. Why should a handful of left-wing coastal enclaves get to dictate how the other 99.9r % that is America gets to live? For a person who claims to hate minority rule you're strangely supportive of it.
As for theology getting rammed down America's throat, what theology is that? Seems like Atheism, Marxism etc are being forced on America but I doubt that's what you're complaining about, or object to in fact. As for anti-choice ideologues, what are those? Do you mean folk who reject the pro-abortion agenda? Hate to break it to you but Americans need to start having kids or they'll go the way of Japan and the dinosaurs. In fact if it wasn't for conservatives America would be following in the footsteps of Europe and being colonised by foreign powers.
Actually it's the Republicans that need a backbone. They should be making clear they will oppose criminal conduct by Democrats with every legal weapon available to them. Any congresscritter who calls for attacks on her (or his) rivals, isn't fit for office!
Claiming Trump's harmed people sounds great but lacks substance. He is responsible for securing America's borders.
As for the MSM, Trump calling them out for their blatant bias is entirely reasonable. Time to hold them accountable.
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@Andrew Mason
The biggest mistake Abraham Lincoln made after the Civil War was when he didn't say to the
South: "You're on your own."
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Oh, I hardly think a subpoena of Trump's tax returns, and an investigation of Trump Jr's collusion with Russia, leads to a stalemate, Douthat.
I guess your party will have to learn a new chant; "Lock Her Up" doesn't make much sense anymore.
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The Founding Fathers in the absence of good faith compromise and negotiation intended governing gridlock in our divided limited power constitutional republic of united states where the people are sovereign as the best way to preserve the status quo ante doing the least amount of harm.
But there is no midterm American stalemate. The proof is in the smiling smirking hacking and meddling faces of Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, Recep Erdogan, Abdel el-Sisi, Kim Jong Un, Xi Jinping, Rodrigo Duterte and Mohammad Salman, All of whom are malignly bent on making their countries great again at the expense of American values and interests.
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The Republicans held the Senate, but lost the House. That sounds like a dream scenario, and especially with Trump as President, it was the best they could hope for. But it's not, it repudiates everything the Republicans stand for, for they can't appeal to the will of the people, for the will of the people gave the Democrats the House, sure, they held the Senate, which has recently become little more than a proxy for nine individuals who represent, whom, the party that nominated them? But that body longer represent an impartial interpretation of The Constitution, as Kavanaugh made that plain, it now represents a narrow interpretation that squares with what seemed to be the best way to do something more than 250 years ago.
This is a terrible result and simply entrenches the delusion that Republicans are the natural party of government. By denying what the people have shown they want, time and again, it has instead, taken the Republicans one step closer to relevancy.
Mr. Douthat, If your editorial was meant as any kind of leadership out of your perceived stalemate, you failed.
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"There is no conservative governing agenda at the moment; there is only a desire not to be ruled by liberalism."
At least you've finally recognized that Republicans have nothing constructive to offer in any branch of government. That's a good first step, Ross.
If you can face facts and realize that subsidized birth control, sex education, and child care do more to reduce abortions than outlawing them, might be we'll make a liberal of you yet.
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@Roarke
Except "...only a desire not to be ruled by liberalism" means an obvious agenda of dismantling government as an obstacle or restraint on business and consolidating the political dominance of private wealth. It means treating all national parks and protected wilderness and habitats as a free buffet for giant multinational mineral extractors to feast on, leaving scraps from the table. It means sabotaging public education and shifting to private for profit schools subsidized by taxpayers. Ditto prisons: there's big money in private prisons Republican judges can impose long prison sentences for minor offenses so the demand for prison space continues to grow. They'll restrict access to reproductive health care, such as abortion by shifting federal funds to anti-abortion organizations. They'll shift the tax burden entirely on the poor and working families by eliminating income taxes and imposing a federal sales tax, which is the most regressive tax scheme possible.
The list goes on and on but make no mistake the Republicans have a plan, an agenda, and operatives in place to insure rule by right wingers in place of liberalism.
Douthat knows that. Hard to be disingenuous with both hands in the cookie jar.
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@Roarke, it seems clear that most of the so-called pro-life people don’t really want to end abortions, they only want to sound like they do. They want to be heard (by their God?) saying what they think is the Right Message. That their views actually increase the numbers of abortions is irrelevant to them (same as the war on drugs people). If they were sincere about abortions instead of about sounding like self-congratulating, righteous people, holy defenders of innocence, they’d work with others to increase the approaches that work. This does not interest them.
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@Yuri Asian-Thank you. You deserve your own NY Times column.
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Sorry, but it's not the newly divided Congress that will keep the country from governance. Republicans have held Congress and the White House for nearly two years, and they have a tax cut bill to show for it. The problem is with the GOP's ineptitude, not with opposing ideologies or with a stalemate.
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"So they’re ( Democrats) left waiting, as before, for demography or a recession to deliver them that opportunity." If that's the strategy then Democrats are doomed. Demography is decades away from changing in their favor if at all. What if a recession doesn't come in the next two years? What if the economy continues to improve...then what...a terrible strategy. If the 2018 midterms deliver an American stalemate to the GOP then they're probably are celebrating. I don't think even the most delusional Republican politician expected to keep the House. From the GOP's perspective losing the House is irrelevant. They've won the Senate...increasing their majority. Control the Senate & you control the most important lever of power: the judiciary. The GOP is playing the long game. Trump will be gone soon. They will still be here. The GOP can wait him out & achieve all of their objectives. Their goal is to nominate 3-4 very conservative Supreme Court justices. Trump has gotten two SCOTUS appointments, he may get more. He’s moved much faster on lower-court appointments than Obama did. The legal arm of the conservative movement is the best organized & most far-seeing sector of the Right. They truly are in it — and have been in it — for the long term goals. Control the Supreme Court, stack the judiciary, and you can stop the progressive movement, no matter how popular it is, no matter how much legislative power it has. Nothing will get in the way of that goal.
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@Bill Brown The GOP is playing the judicial game because, as the House races show, they cannot win through democratic means. Cheating isn’t a strategy.
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@Bill Brown
Exactly. Conservative control of the judiciaries is basically like putting their entire political agenda on autopilot. They can walk away and their will will be done. It's like installing and setting a thermostat. You can leave the building, but the climate inside will stay exactly the way you want it, regardless of the winds that howl.
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@SLM Actually the GOP is winning by democratic means and using the courts as a back stop. Turn on CNN. The Gop has won the governorships in Ohio and Florida which will be keys to the 2020 Presidential race. Republican's will continue to nominate and approve more conservative justices....maybe some even to the right of Kavanaugh. The courts are the source of the Republican's power in the cultural war that divides us. The GOP is not going to have to worry about confirmation battles anymore. They're not going to have to worry about appeasing moderates. They will put up whoever they want....the more to the right the better...and get them confirmed.
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So the suggestion is that Trump and the GOP should have chosen to "Seal the working-class realignment with a dose of economic populism." If by that, Douthat means foregoing the tax cut and the regulatory roll-back in favor of redistribution and transfer payments, well, the result would have been the continuation of the moribund Obama economy and death for the GOP. If he means that Trump should have driven trade policy more towards protecting the working class, well, that's what he's doing.
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@Douglas Levene
The problem with what Trump is doing, from the point of view of this liberal, is not the lack of "redistribution". It's the fact that he paid for the tax cuts with a giant deficit. Also that he is buying the hot economy in part by selling out clean water and air, and the climate, and therefore the health of many people. I believe in some deregulation, because some regulations are just burdensome and idiotic. But he is trying to go WAY too far. My problem with what Trump is doing is that we will have to pay the piper down the road, and the price will be epically steep.
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I feel good about 2020 exactly because the voters in the upper Midwest who helped Trump in 2016 have shown that they will vote for the right candidate and Democratic primary observers may be paying a lot of attention to them as opposed to, say, South Carolina. But Trump can feel good because he could reach out his hand and say, "A vote for Senate candidate X is a vote for me," and deep-red voters in Missouri and Tennessee and Indiana answered the call. When you are talking about ideological compromise you have to be careful that the Democratic base perceives this compromise as reflecting the values of the state and not as a compromise with Trump the person.
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