How the Democratic House May Shift the Economic Equation

Nov 07, 2018 · 78 comments
ss (los gatos)
Hm. When the results of Trump's tax and trade policies start toppling the fiscal house of cards, it is going to be easy for the GOP to blame it on the new folks in the House. Coincidence will be confused with causation, and 2020 will be an uphill fight. I'm not saying the Democrats should not work to undue some of the damage Trump has done, but they be blamed for the damage instead of getting credit for reducing the harm.
Sailboat Captain (At sea)
Primum non nocere.... (1) Remember Kavanaugh- "Spartacus" did more damage than help. You want to convert Trump voters, not make them angry. (2) Step back from your positions and redo your analysis. Infrastructure repairs are critical. With unemployment at record lows and the debt and markets at record highs a "stimulus" bill would be a disaster. But, coupling it with a guest worker program might work. (3) "resist" has always been a losing strategy. It didn't work when the Republicans held the House and Democrats held the Senate, it won't work now. (4) President Trump's greatest ally is the MSM. We get it. You hate Trump. He is evil. The world is going to end, women and children hardest hit. We got it 2 years ago, 1 year ago, 6 months ago. It's a dead story. Let it go. You are like a poor debater: but, but, but.... Disengage. Instead of giving him air time give him a vacuum. (5) Both political parties are in disarray. Some great gains for women and minorities in the last election. But the Democrats (and Republicans) are still the parties of Septagenerians. Use you new talent to generate new ideas...
Tuvw Xyz (Evanston, Illinois)
I wish the Democrats to push for Health Insurance for All. If they have any wisdom left, they will not increase taxes, jettison the politically correct, opponents of the 2nd Amendment, militant vegans, and anti-tobacco but pro-cannabis, attached to their coattails and wallowing in their muddy wake.
2observe2b (VA)
Just make sure you know where your wallet is and its in your pocket/purse and not the Democrats.
Paul (Brooklyn)
Very little will get done to improve the lot financially of the average Joe but democrats controlling the House will help stop the bleeding. Trump will never agree on anything progressive because it will rile up his base. Even if he did, it would be difficult getting it past a republican Senate.
John Doe (Johnstown)
Wouldn’t that just be like Trump during the second half of his first term to work with Democrats just to spite them for the first half. Nothing a Democrat hates worse than not being able to be smug and condescending. Could anyone, not even Trump, really be that cruel?
AACNY (New York)
@John Doe Trump will work with anyone. Those crazy Democratic committee chairs already look out of touch.
Rich Murphy (Palm City)
Just remember, when Trump says unity, he means do it my way.
Ricardo de la O (Laredo. )
I’m not worried about a tax cut foregone, I’m worried about spending by the federal government that will balloon the deficit even more.
Stephen (Oakland)
Republican control already increased my taxes with their so-called “cuts” so my employer gets a windfall. So I’m not too concerned about the Dems.
AACNY (New York)
I think a lot of people are making a major mistake. They think this will be a reprisal of the Obama years. In other words, total gridlock. Well, newsflash, Trump is not Obama. Trump likes making deals and getting things done. He is probably looking forward to working with Pelosi. This will not be the case if democrats decide to hound him with investigations. I cannot blame him. Democrats are going to have to decide if they want to get things done or get Trump. He made it clear today, they'll have to pick one.
Stephen (Oakland)
This is a bit misguided. He doesn’t like to make deals, he likes to make money.
Marie (Ohio)
@AACNY Trump has never wanted to have things done. His attention span is too short for this. However, he loves to brag about his fictive "accomplishments" a lot. That's a fact. Can you name one reasonable thing, good for the well being of our whole nation, which had been done by him?
AACNY (New York)
@Marie Wrong. You need to stop denying that he gets things done just because you don't approve of what he's doing. Americans elected him to rein in regulations, cut taxes and enforce immigration laws. He's delivering.
Usok (Houston)
It will be good enough for the congress to do just one thing right in the next four years. Get the drug price under control, and also the healthcare expense increase no more than the inflation rate. The additional accomplishment if done will be the extra bonus for us.
AACNY (New York)
The middle class tax cut has flown under the radar. Many don't think it exists. They're wrong. There are a few choice things for middle class Americans in the new tax laws, starting with lower tax rates. (All brackets have lower rates.) Right now it's easy to talk about raising taxes, because Americans think only the rich got a tax cut. After 4/15/19, they will see that they did as well. Most Americans won't say, "Raise my taxes for the greater good."
JMS (NYC)
..let’s see, the article only briefly mentioned the most compelling issue facing our Country- the debt. Our debt is $21 trillion- we are running a deficit between $1-2 trillion- the interest on that debt exceeds $300 billion. Americans don’t understand how that debt will eventually cripple our Nation. Tax cuts - tax increases- tariffs - no tariffs- more healthcare- less healthcare - $1 trillion for infrastructure- It’s a travesty-and don’t mention the limits Obama placed on the budget - our debt doubled during his 8 years in office - spending uncontrollably. Congress only agrees on 1 item - spending more money than we pay in taxes -year after year after year - they truly don’t care - all they care about is what happened yesterday - getting elected.
priscus (USA)
The output of the President and Congress has been to spend public money on political infighting. The need for major health care reform for all Americans, repairing and replacing degraded infrastructure, reforming immigration laws, and offering adequate support for preK education among other needs languish. They have not earned their salaries.
Jay (Yokosuka, Japan)
I hope the Democrats can us this opportunity to improve the ACA and increase spending on entitlement programs. In any case a win for the Democrats is a win for the people.
ellienyc (New York City)
How about a TAX CREDIT (not a deduction) for out of pocket medical and dental above a certain amount -- like 5% of adjusted gross income? (for a person with an income of $50k, this would mean out of pocket medical/dental in excess of $2,500 in a year) Many seniors have substantial out of pocket medical and home care expenses, not to mention substantial dental & vision, which are not covered by Medicare. Plus, working people who are not covered by corporate, employer sponosred health care plans often pay huge Obamacare premiums with huge deductibles. Some people don't get health insurance because they can't pay those premiums. At a certain point it seems only fair people should get a tax credit for this. And a tax credit is available to all taxpayers, not just those who itemize.
AACNY (New York)
@ellienyc If you consider that the Child Tax Credit was just raised from $1K to $2K per child, it's unlikely that the government is going to start giving credits for $10-20K. Unrealistic.
Nb (Texas)
How about getting rid of the unber blue urban tax hit which limits SALT deductions?
AACNY (New York)
@Nb The average property taxes in the country are $3500. That would be a big gift to wealthy residents high taxed states. The AMT is already down for the cohort paying those high taxes.
Patrick (NYC)
They will do and accomplish nothing. Just lip service. Hope I'm wrong
Rich (Melbourne)
I honestly don't care what you people do with your tax rates, but I really, really hope this doesn't derail any possibility of further tax reform away from the utterly backwards worldwide citizenship-based taxation system for natural persons, to a streamlined residency-based system like the ENTIRE REST OF THE WORLD USES... with Corporations now changed to a more sensible system, it seemed just a matter of time for real people to see some change and be able to actually have retirement savings if they live not-in-the-US... But then again, look at the metric system.
Judy (New York)
Democrats should focus on two things-- 1. "government that works": a - congressional oversight (anti-corruption), b- election integrity (pro-democracy). 2 "infrastructure to re-build America" - it is bi-partisan because Congressional districts will get the improvements, and the money and jobs; it's a win-win. My concern is the media needs to find polarities and amplify them. Fights means advertising dollar for media, and Trump, the master of diversion, loves a good fight. The Democrats, however, must control the message and keep their message on two things, "government that works" and "infrastructure to re-build America" (jobs, jobs, jobs).
Rick (Summit)
The stock market rallied because the Democrats are led by an 80 year old billionaire socialite, not by a young, radical Socialist.
DGNovelty (Ohio)
"The 10 percent tariff the president put on $250 billion of Chinese goods in late September is scheduled to increase to 25 percent on Jan. 1." .....except if your name is Ivanka.
William Case (United States)
Since the newly elected representatives will not take their seats until January 3, 2019. Trump still has two months to push legislation through a Republican-control Congress no longer reluctant to vote on controversial issues during an election year. The House is likely to act on such measures as immigration reform before the year is out. Other than immigration and tax reform—which has already been achieved—Trump never had much of a legislative agenda. His most controversial acts have been to enforce existing laws. For example, existing laws already call for the arrest and detention of illegal border crossers and the removal or deportation of all aliens unlawfully residing in the United States, not just those who commit violent crimes. The newly elected Democratic representatives cannot change these laws or make new laws to counter the Trump agenda because Republicans will still control both the Senate and the White House on the morning of January 3. The Supreme Court, which now has a conservative majority, will settle such issues as whether new administrations are empower to reverse policies—such as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals—put into effect by the preceding administration.
DJ (Washington DC)
Entitlement programs? Social Security? Every citizen's paycheck contains a mandatory social security deduction. This is YOUR money that YOU contributed over a lifetime of working. This is no entitelement.
Stevenz (Auckland)
@DJ. Actually, that's the very definition of entitlement. It isn't something that can be taken away - you're entitled to it.
Nb (Texas)
@Stevenz But the way the term is used by the GOP, it’s taken to mean something for nothing. i.e. a freebie.
Sailboat Captain (At sea)
Sadly when (President for Life) FDR created Social Security he made sure it included the no recourse ability for the Government to stop paying at any time. So technically it's a benefit, not an entitlement. (Which, at my age - 71 - is a bit of a bummer.)
KarlosTJ (Bostonia)
"...and reining in prescription drug costs..." Isn't that something the PPACA was supposed to do already? That kind of suggests - using logic, and reason, and math - that PPACA was a failure when it was signed. Or are Liberals unaware of logic, reason, and math?
hb (mi)
If Pelosi funds his stupid wall I will never vote D again, unless we get Medicare for all that is rationed logically. Campaign finance reform should be tops on their agenda.
AACNY (New York)
@hb Opposition to the wall is just stubborn partisanship. Bad decision are made this way.
Elinor (Seattle)
That is super funny that Trump is talking about middle class tax cuts. The Trump/GOP tax legislation that lowered taxes for rich people and corporations will have the effect of increasing my family's tax burden. To put it succinctly: I am middle class and Trump raised my taxes last year. He had the nerve to call it a tax cut. If he is talking about "tax cuts" for families like mine, it is a sad and insincere effort to confuse people about the problems he himself has caused in the pursuit of greater wealth for himself.
AACNY (New York)
@Elinor That's quite a feat since all the tax brackets have lower tax rates.
Jonathan (Oronoque)
Democrats will not be able to raise Federal taxes because the Senate and Trump would stop them. However, at the local level, Democrats could certainly raise state and local taxes. They have total control in New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, so taxpayers in these states can expect increases.
AACNY (New York)
@Jonathan They're already facing the backlash from the $10K SALT deduction limitation. Every resident is going to be much more aware of their already high taxes since they are no longer deductible. Very bad time to raise taxes.
Jonathan (Oronoque)
@AACNY - If they need the money, they will do it anyway. Unlike the Feds, they haven't got a printing press.
Stephen (Oakland)
When Alabama’s schools are the best in the nation we can talk. In the meantime, where do you think education and roads come from?
Casual Observer (Los Angeles)
Trump and the Republicans passed a fantastically ridiculous tax cut that guarantees that the government cannot be funded without so much borrowing that the government will be competing with every American for money being lent. Interest rates will sky rocket. Then everyone will be in trouble and there will be only two alternatives, slash the biggest government programs or raise taxes again. While conservatives love to talk about shrinking government, they have a magical image of government only serving themselves and all the other needs that government serves will just magically go away as soon as the government ceases to serve those needs. It's nuts. All the House Democrats will be able to do is tell the American people what a screwed up mess Trump and the Republicans have created but half of them are so invested in the falsehoods from the right that they will not listen. We are going to watch the situation get worse while Trump lies and the Republicans try to blame the Democrats. Without the Senate, the House cannot override the President's vetoes. It's not a good situation.
DENOTE MORDANT (CA)
This is the wait and see moment in DC. This new arrangement where the Donkeys finally have political standing is going to require the sniff test to unearth the rot of the GOP and replace it with an upbeat Democrat agenda. Nothing punitive. Just improve the lot of the citizens.
Nb (Texas)
@DENOTE MORDANT The Democrats can only stop Trump. They can’t enact laws without McConnel’s say so which will be “no.” They can embarrass the do nothing Senate though.
Chip (Wheelwell, Indiana)
Gadfrey. There will be no legislation. There will be investigation. Nothing got done during Watergate and nothing will get done during Orangegate either.
jaco (Nevada)
"Democrats may also think twice about giving the president a victory before the 2020 election." This says it all about democrats, more concerned about cheap politics than the American people.
Daphne (East Coast)
@jaco I was going to quote this as well. That leaves a tax cut for millionaires (state and local taxes) as their number one priority.
Stevenz (Auckland)
@jaco. Democrats are far more concerned about the American people than the right wing. It's in the record. But at this time in history they need to do absolutely *everything* to win.
Angry (The Barricades)
Hmm, I seem to recall several useless shutdowns that cost billions of dollars. And 70 attempted repeals of the ACA. And 8 investigations to prove nothing useful abiut Bemghazi. You've got an awful lot of gall to ignore the Republican congress' antics during the Obama administration
poslug (Cambridge)
The tax cuts did nothing for many, especially in the Blue states, and wait until they go away and the estimated doubling of non 1%er taxes hits. Not to mention all those younger citizens with immense college debt. Add non negotiated drug prices to everyone which can wipe you out in no time. Stocks will not be so happy when Trump's tariffs escalate loses. Democrats need to present the real economic GOP created picture.
AACNY (New York)
There is a lower tax rate, a $2K *credit* per child and a higher threshold before AMT kicks in. A lot of people are going to be benefiting.
Ray (Houston, Texas)
This is a very superficial article. There is ample time to pass any tax cutting bills in 2.6 months if they were ever intended to be formulated and passed. Trump used the tax cut proposal as an election tidbit and it seems your writer bought the message. The limit in deductions will not decrease the deficit in any reasonable way. This comment is so false as to make the writer's nose $971 B inches longer. I wish Ms Cohen all the benefits of a formal education but I wish it had been in behavioral economics. Ray
John (Australia)
I do not expect much change in the USA spending billions on wars as China keeps laughing all the way to the bank. I do not expect to see much change in the deficit as those tax cuts are for the rich few. I have yet to see any so called good deals with the Pacific nations or the EU. I doubt if I will ever see Americans get national health care, aged pensions, 4 weeks paid vacations, paid sick leave or paid maternity leave. As one writer for the Post said, The United States isn't a democracy--and was never intended to be.
Marie (Ohio)
@John Democracy is not about social benefits. Otherwise, you are right. Europe learned hard way how to collaborate (WWI, WWII). America is different.
Larry (NY)
The Democrats will do exactly what they have always done: buy votes by passing give-away legislation, funded by increased taxes. Nothing more, nothing less.
Stevenz (Auckland)
@Larry. Better than buying votes with fear, slander, lying, threats, lawlessness, and division as your people do.
Angry (The Barricades)
So give aways are fine when it's to the oil industry, arms industry, wall street, and the billionaire class?
Joe C (TX)
@Angry You forgot the $12B to the farmers needed as a result of tariffs and the resulting trade war.
4Average Joe (usa)
So, the ACA, also known as Obamacare, SAVED US TONS OF MONEY. Thanks Obama. The various trade deals we had would have GROWN MARKETS. The $1,500,000,000 in tax cuts, that 99.6% go o the rich in 10 years, will be made up elsewhere. Does anyone see the infrastructure? Nope, that was promised by Trumpublicans, but it will take Democrats to do it. The blowing up of the deficit will cost all of us a ton. This story is how the Republican loss will stop tax cuts-- for whom?
rls (Illinois)
"With control of only one chamber, and an antagonist in the White House, the Democrats won’t be able to reverse previous tax cuts and spending initiatives." That should not stop the House Dems. from voting to repeal unpopular parts of the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017" (TCGA). Of course, the Senate won't even acknowledge the legislation, let alone, vote on it, but who cares? Republicans spent most of their time voting to repeal Obamacare over, and over, and over, again, just to signal to their base, and voters, what they stood for. We should expect no less from Democrats.
DRTmunich (Long Island)
@rls -- at least the Democrats will try to pass real legislation to force Trump to veto it. As opposed to merely repealing with no alternative.
Meredith (New York)
Seems like only mild reforms from an opposition party have a chance in a country badly in need of updated reforms. Our democracy is working only within the limits set the the mega donors who fund our elections, tethering politicians and setting the norm of our political culture. Our definition of 'progressive' is vary narrow. Our norm is still to label as 'too left wing' the centrist health care guarantees of most other democracies that are also capitalist countries. Same for infrastructure upkeep where the US lags other modern nations. And the norm is to keep a basic tax system that's unfair and inadequate for the needs of the country. Can't be otherwise when corporate mega donors dictate the regulations that congress will pass. Legalized by the Supreme Court. This is all left undiscussed on our media as it reports the election drama 24/7. Now it will focus on the Reality TV political series as House Dems fight GOP/Trump. And the underlying power imbalances weakening our democracy will be ignored.
cherrylog754 (Atlanta, GA)
"Will the government keep running?" I would suggest the author might want to rephrase the question to: "Will the government begin to run again? And the answer is, yes, if the Republicans would actually engage the Democrats in meaningful discussions on any reasonable legislation.
Tony (New York)
@cherrylog754 But will the Democrats engage the Republicans in meaningful discussions on any reasonable legislation? Is it a two-way street, or only a one-way street?
Syliva (Pacific Northwest)
Ooo! The idea of increasing tax incentives for retirement savings seems like a win-win. Especially if you offer even greater incentives to lower income people, and younger people, so folks who probably aren't saving now can afford to start saving - even a few bucks a month. How could the GOP disagree with that? If everyone has a ROTH or IRA, then chalk one up to "personal responsibility" and lose less sleep over social security.
SilentEcho (SoCentralPA)
@Syliva, Yep. Saving that $1.50 per week for retirement will make many futures brighter.
Meredith (New York)
@Syliva....you're in a dream world. A few bucks a month won't do it. Tax incentives sound so good, for those with ample means...but for many millions of underpaid Americans they don't matter. They need pensions. Their pay doesn't allow them to save, as they work more than 1 job in many cases in order to pay for food, housing, transportation. Maybe you've heard tell of this now and then? How about the 'social responsibility' of the GOP and the well off to the rest of their nation they live in and profit from? Millions have no way to retire as they age. This has been long reported as a scandal unique to the US among democracies. Social security, a basic necessity of any civilized country, isn't even adequate to live on. For any voter to vote for the party that's anti SS is a triumph of propaganda.
William Smith (United States)
@SilentEcho Retirement age- 65 52 weeks in a year 2340 weeks in 45 years 2340 * $1.50 = $3510 for retirement Still not a whole lot...if one started saving from the age of 20
Deirdre (New Jersey)
I am a democrat and the takeaway for me from the midterms is immigration, Immigration, immigration. It is time to deal with this boogeyman and take it off the table Democrats should put forth proposals that are reasonable, fair and compassionate. Proposals should encourage applying in ones own country and diplomacy /aid to make those Central American countries safer It was shocking to me to hear so many citizen immigrants deplore those trying to come here. They got theirs and they want to pull that ladder up behind them. We have to deal with this before it devours us.
Jonathan (Oronoque)
@Deirdre - Those immigrants spent a lot of money on expensive lawyers to get their green cards and citizenship. I am not surprised they are annoyed by people who just walk in.
Nb (Texas)
@Deirdre Immigration was a big issue but the GOP will do nothing. They had 2 years of control and did nothing. It’s too useful to have a built in enemy and a chance to pound your chest about law and order while supporting the most corrupt administration since the Grant administration.
luxembourg (Upstate NY)
With regard to taxes, you say that progressives may not be enthusiastic in supporting some of their colleagues’ desires to reinstate full deductibility of state and local taxes because most of the benefits would go to higher income citizens. Why not be clear? The WSJ reported earlier this year that half of the benefit would go to just the top 0.1%, and most of the rest to those remaining in the top 2-3%. Not even the Republicans have proposed that change.
rls (Illinois)
@luxembourg The SALT deduction limit is a Republican attack on blue states. Blue states, that already receive less in federal dollars then they pay in taxes, will now pay even more federal taxes with the SALT deduction limit. This is part of the reason Peter Roskam (IL-6 CD) and other suburban Republicans lost their seats yesterday; they sold out their constituents.
Tony (New York)
@luxembourg But the Democrats who won in New Jersey have promised to fight to reinstate the SALT deduction, just to benefit their rich constituents. You wouldn't want those Democrats to be called liars, would you?
Jonathan (Oronoque)
@rls - The primary reason for this is that all the very wealthy taxpayers live in the blue states, and the tax system is very progressive. People living in blue states with incomes that are similar to the national average pay no more than anyone else. You can't say you want to tax the rich, and not expect to see money flow from where the rich live to everywhere else.
John Booke (Longmeadow, Mass.)
Controlling drug prices is not enough. All medical care prices need to come down.
ellienyc (New York City)
@John Booke And I believe we need a tax credit (not a deduction) for people whose out of pocket medical, dental, vision, home case, etc. are more than a specified % of income -- say 5%.