Don't like the needle. Never liked the needle. Hate the needle. The whole business of 95% certainty DOES mean 100% to just about everybody. I mean 90 or 95 percent means it's done. What possibly could go wrong? What, one of the candidates could have a heart attack or get shot before the polls close? Besides, who is the odds maker here. Sounds a bit like "past posting" to me from my horse racing days. Never liked that either. I always knew the trotters were fixed every time the same horse broke out into a gallop.
The whole thing looks sketchy to me. Sorry.
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I feel like I did as a 5-year-old in 1956 at my pediatrician's office, screaming, "Don't give me the needle!"
That was because I remembered the trauma of getting the last needle.
That's how I feel now.
What happened to the needle? Fear not the truth of the forecast. Let the needle speak!
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I hate that needle. The needle was like a show of hubris in 2016. I really cant believe the needle wasnt trashed.
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Followed your needle during the last presidential election and it was disheartening how wrong you got it.
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I know someone who works in statistical medicine and she told me once about the danger of conflating statistics and the results of a single, important outcome, like an individual getting cancer. In telling someone that they have cancer, what doctor would say "That's amazing! Based on your lifestyle risk factors you had only a 12% chance of getting cancer, but you got it anyway"?
This needle feels like that.
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I never used to fear needles. As a kid, I would go in for vaccinations, no biggie. As an adult, for allergies and a couple other medical issues I gave myself many, many injections, no big deal.
Nov 8, 2016, changed that.
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@Marty That needle gave me PTSD.
I cannot tell you how much I hate the needle.
I am still convinced the needle lulled all those Bernie Sanders supporters into thinking they didn't need to hold their nose and go out and vote for Hilary Clinton two years ago.
Get rid of the needle. Get rid of Nate Cohn. Please put all the resources instead towards hard-news reporters, not pollsters. Thank you.
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Trigger warning needed...
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Please - end the needle. We all remember the 98% chance of victory for Hillary...
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Tool is right....
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Definitely still traumatized by the needle. I won't forget that night!
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Ugh. The needle? Again? Please banish that method of communication to the trash heap. For some of the same reasons mentioned by other readers, I’m not a fan of the needle.
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The needle concerning me most is the one showing Democracy driving on fumes.
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No matter what the needle shows, no matter the final outcome, the fact is the United States is, and has always been, a racist country where White Christians rule with privilege over Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and the poor.
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In 2016, the needle helped a lot of us leave our election parties early enough to mourn alone.
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The NYTimes has outdone itself with the cool election charts, graphics, and the Needle. Great job.
Now if you could only make the results turn out how I want them!
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Noooooo! Not the needle again!
I still have ptsd from 2016!
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Great way to follow all that’s happening. But let’s get the grammar right. Data are messy; not data is messy. Or datum is messy works too.
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@Marc Miller What’s really messy is the English language. Words change their usage and meaning all the time.
Perhaps you are one of those people who claims that after decimation 90% still remains, when everyone else considers it nearly complete destruction.
“Data” is now clearly entrenched as a collective noun , like “food”. We don’t say, “food are delicious”, and we need not use an antiquated word like “datum” except in special circumstances.
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@Charlie B
Yes, except there's something pleasantly EXACT about the custom, much more used in Ireland and England, to use a plural verb form with a collective noun! It reminds one of the plural nature of a collective noun. Not a bad thing to remember sometimes!
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The needle scarred me horrifically the evening of the last presidential election. Hovering at Hillary Clinton most of the day then like something out of an apocalyptic movie started bouncing over to the other side and stayed there. I surprised myself with how hysterical I became that night...
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I have needle PTSD.
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I think the needle is what punctured Hillary’s chances of winning. The needle is what told us for three weeks prior to the election that she was a 98% favorite. I would scrap the needle
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This was originally called the “Swingometer” in the UK since 1955. It shows the swing of seats in Parliament.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swingometer
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No.... not... the needle! Some of us have PTSD from the needle! Please: a pie chart, a line graph, a histogram, a bar chart, scatter plot, stem and leaf display, a dot plot, flow chart, bubble chart, a pictogram for Christ’s sake! Anything but... the needle!!!
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I'm still traumatized by your needle from two years ago.
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You are doing this again!! Are you kidding me? What is wrong with you people?
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Oh Nate, the needle does cause things to happen. When you set it at 90% for Clinton in 2016 you caused a lot of voters to become complacent about what was really at stake. Don’t kid yourself.
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I hate that thing!!! Will never forget the nightmare of watching it turn rapidly from overconfident blue to tepid tossup to rancid red in 2016. Do yourselves a favor and get a new graphic, please!
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Needle Bad!
Needle Lie!
No More Needle!
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I still have nightmares about this needle from 2016. But the show must go on. Hoping for a different result tonight.
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Here’s a question: will it be more accurate than on election night 2016?
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sorry. this article says:
Data is messy.
not true. A datum is messy. Data are messy
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I prefer the never look option. I close my eyes and see the Jeb Bartlett presidency.
Okay, I don't. But I wish I did.
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I have graduate training in applied statistics and teach stats. I really, really wish you would stop using the needle. Hint, if you need an article to explain how to interpret something, it's not really a great way to communicate with the general public.
People routinely misinterpret the needle or other forecasts as estimates of the vote percentages. Why? Because that's the percentage that is meaningful and that people want to know for this specific situation. (And also because people are not great at interpreting probability.) But, to add insult to injury, many of these forecasts are essentially an estimate of probability *without an associated indicator of the precision of the estimate*. You wouldn't get a probability estimate without an associated precision interval published in any halfway decent scientific journal.
So please, please please...The next go-round, just present the estimated vote %'s with an indicator of margin of error/precision.
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The needle is up ... but won't start moving until past 7 pm.
I am waiting for it to go live as a techie would wait in line for the newest iPhone.
Meantime people - go vote, that needle won't move unless you vote.
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Fortunately, today's elections are state wide. What truly bothers me is that we're a nation across five time zones. As I write this it is 6:37 in New York and 1:37 in Hawaii. When the media proclaim winners and losers in national elections as they come in, flowing east to west, voters in western states (including my own state of Nevada) might well decide not to vote because it's all over anyway. But votes do matter. Even votes for the losing candidate matter because political parties can infer voter sentiment on issues by counting votes. I wish the media would simply not pronounce "winners" and "losers" until after the votes are counted.
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This is really really stupid. We know that the counting of votes is different from the casting of them. The order in which votes are counted doesn’t mean anything. The needle tells us nothing. But worse it represents the failure of the Times to model intelligent and meaningful discourse.
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I have an admittedly irrational hatred for the needle resulting from the events of November 8, 2016.
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my wife and I fear the needle!!! Needle bad!
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@Emily rational*
If only NYT and the rest of the media paid attention to 538...
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@Emily Yeah I remember watching it first in happiness and hope, then disbelief, then finally horror. I approach it today with trepidation. Yet I know I cannot stop watching it. I have no expectations of the outcome this time however. That has been beaten out of me.
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I think the needle does a great job of teaching people how much sample size and variance matter when estimating anything.
Yeah, it can bounce around erratically until returns come in from more than a few precincts, but this kind of thing also happens in real published research: small sample size means that a valid point estimate might be far, far away from where you wind up.
And yes, it is like heroin, that needle.
3
I'm sorry, but the seemingly erratic behavior of "the needle" back on November 8, 2016, is still for me a traumatic memory. Although I am a social scientist, I do wonder whether we really need such visual pyrotechnics of "instant analysis" as this. A evening spent listening to the music of Bach, or Chopin, would be much better for my soul.
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The needle is like heroin to us political junkies.
15
If tonight I get the same shock from the Times needle as I did two years ago, I might then have to go use a different type of needle.
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Where is the needle???
Please post the needle on the front page
6
The image of the needle is seared into my memory when I think about November 8, 2016. I can still feel my stomach dropping as I waited for the darned thing to move back to blue. An image and a night I’ll never forget.
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As Queensryche said in Operation Mindcrime in the 80's, "The Needle Lies." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_LDkphPYic
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@Sean And as an older source said, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Politicians can make any data say anything they want, either by reading selectively or simply ignoring content. But, thank the NYT for making the effort to show what the country is thinking!
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@Sean As Neil Young said, "I've seen the needle and the damage done."
7
Can we get a link (or notification!) for when this puppy goes live?
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Finally, I've waited for this needle for a damn long time
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Boy, that needle was fun to watch on Nov. 8, 2016!! When that thing started flipping, I couldn't believe it!!
3
The needle is a huge improvement over listening to a bunch of talking heads spin each result as it comes in. Thanks for providing this service.
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Editors - This Times reader will NOT be watching the Needle coverage. This "horse race" coverage, which is getting worse and worse, distracts from what Democracy should be all about. We should be discussing POLICIES, not the twists and turns of which team "wins".
I believe the horse race approach is being used more and more by the news media because it fosters conflict and drama, which translates into webpage visits, clicks and increased advertising rates.
I hope that the Times will recognize this problem and place less emphasis on it in future elections. We need to be moving our political discussions AWAY from polarization and the "us vs. them" mentality, and towards respectful dialogue about the goals and policies we need to continue strengthening our nation.
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@J Jencks
I love the coverage provided on this sight including the needle. I watched all the special elections here and the amount of detail and " real time " reporting of precincts is fascinating, educational, and very exciting. It's not only a great place to see what is happening first, but also why it's happening. Besides, after the stress of the last two years a horse race sounds just fine!
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@J Jencks Perfect comment, J Jencks. I bet you and I are on opposite sides of the political spectrum, yet I find common ground in your comments. The NY Times and other outlets have us at each others' throats for one reasons... profit. Everytime I start a conversation with someone at work who supports "the other party", I find them to be a reasonable person who honestly wants what is best for our country. We can even find reasonable middle ground on issues such as abortion, borders and immigration, gun rights, fair taxation, and even religion! Now how can this be? Hmmmm... The media is not our enemy, as some have postulated. However, they are not our friends. They have no interest in common ground and cooperation. They increasingly push more opinions than facts, and increasingly make it almost impossible to discern the difference. I no longer have a subscription to the "paper of record" for that reason. It's time we stop listening to biased sources stoking the flames of hate and differences, and start talking to one another facd to face again.
4
@K. Thomsen: The level of excitement you feel or how much you are enjoying yourself is an insignificant factor compared with the lack of serious reporting at the most popular news organizations.
Furthermore, this horse race reporting, while it pays money for the purpose of keeping the lights on at NYT, is far less educational than what you could find out on your own if you chose to look into the matters on which you believe they are educating you.
Just as with Trump, the problems with democracy that arise from this type of reporting do not really rest with the leadership. Trump's followers are one of the problems democracy has, just as the fans of this type of reporting are another one. While we still have democracy and a free society, the average citizen has the primary responsibility for the state of our form of government.
Learn to be a fan of truly useful information and begin by learning to stop viewing it as your relief from boredom.
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Kudos to Nate Cohn and the rest of the Upshot staff for the Needle, the best thing going on election nights.
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