This is what I know. Under President Obama, we had people in our offices on H1B visas, and Unilever off-shored all the US IT & services jobs to India. After months of looking, under the Trump administration, I have a job working for a great US company. I don’t like Trump — but I have a job & he’s pushing back on rampant H1B abuse. Hard choices, but you know, we have to eat.
Lot of opportunity out there guys! It’s good when the economy’s doing well. The truth is there’s nothing more depressing than not having a place to add value known as a job if you want one. And luckily a lot less people are having to deal with that these days. Hooray!
Um...elephant...room...tariffs & return to high risk bogs investment packages ...that light at the end of the tunnel is a freight train barreling toward us!
3
Sure, I'm still not convinced, what a joke. Yes, great strides in the job market, if you want to work for minimum wage at Walmart or any retail job or fast food...go for it.
Sadly, with two masters degrees, I'd rather stick with an underpaid $50,000 yr job teaching HS, with shrinking Community College full time jobs most of us are stuck, what growth? Not from my perspective. Vote for educating our population, vote for jobs for the future, vote BLUE!
5
Again, Irwin plays the role of Dr. Pangloss. These data herald a false dawn. Wages have not kept up with inflation. Benefits and become increasingly paltry for those with jobs. The cost of health care continues to rise precipitously. Comparative household wealth has continued to deteriorate over the decades. The job creation mean nothing on their own, as the “boom” only showers gold upon investors and the already rich. The meager increases the rest of us experience will do nothing to arrest the generations-long falling standard of living most Americans have had to endure.
3
I didnt see anything about the price of oil mentioned, which will probably go sky high again after the next market crash. Let gas go to four dollars a gallon and then tell me about your great economy.
2
Mr. Irwin left out one critical factor in determining how long the hot job market lasts, that being who controls the White House and Congress. During 8 years of the Obama administration the annual GDP growth rate averaged a pathetic 1.48%. Worse yet, the US economy NEVER attained an annual rate of 3%, making him the only president with that ignominious distinction. President Obama doesn’t deserve all the credit for the worst performing economy in my lifetime, initial democrat control of the House and their longer grip of Senate control deserve credit too. When republicans did gain control of both, president Obama together with surviving democrats successfully stymied republican initiatives that are now bearing fruit.
The contrast between the Obama administration and the Trump administration couldn’t be more stark. The same congressional Democrats that assailed president Trump’s tax cut to corporations and individuals cheered president Obama’s “fiscal stimulus package” of $840 billion directed overwhelmingly towards social spending with a paltry portion being offered as tax breaks for buying electric cars, credits for first time home buyers and the infamous “job ready” infrastructure spending on projects that turned out to be be anything but.
Although Mr. Irwin fails to ask the question of which party philosophy contributes more to a robust economy the results speak for themselves. The question Americans must answer on November 6 is which economy they prefer.
What are some of the ways that the Obama Administration's getting America through the Great Recession lead to some of the
economic improvements the nation is reporting now?
3
Read the comments. The economy is not fine. Tax the rich and do a GMI. I don't favor the idea of a guaranteed minimum income but the alternative is an economy that swallows its own tail, and most of the population with it.
1
The fact that no Republican is talking about much less doing anything about these massive and unsettling deficits can mean only one thing. Complete mismanagement of the American economy. A very fat loaded cigar will blow up in all of our faces and yet the gilded trumps of this country will not pay anything. Not even taxes. Do you think your children do not see this?
5
Democrats were always accused of throwing money at problems. Certainly looks like that's exactly what Republicans are doing. And where is all that money going? Not into the pockets of the people who have not benefited for decades. Certainly not rebuilding the infrastructure the country desperately needs. That will have to wait until the next recession. When interest rates are much higher. And the wealthy who have benefited so much more than anyone else. Do you think they will step up and offer to help? Not a chance. That next step on the ladder the middle class just was given a hand to climb to? It will be sawed off and down the middle class will go. Compliments of Trump. Kind of like seeing a starving person. You have some leftover food and the needy person looks at you with begging eyes. And you look at him, sneer, and throw the food into the trash. You want that food? Dig for it.
2
I was amused to see the picture of roofers in this article. Here in South Florida all roofers are Hispanic. Therefore it appears that all the job gains are for immigrants.
1
It would be great NY Times if on the next unemployment report, your reporters could dig into the numbers and report on all the nuances that get glossed over when your focus is simply reporting on the government headline number of
"3.7% Unemployment Rate, Lowest Since 1960!
Sigh.
2
the lowest unemployment rate since 1969?
what happened after 1969?
a huge amount of inflation and rising interest rates,
slow real growth, volatility in the economy and markets.
Not generally anticipated in 1969.
this time it could be much worse because of the fiscal imbalance
and still bloated Fed's balance sheet.
4
Well, this article is written more for the investment community than it is for the workers, we the people can read it, but what good is it to us?
This information benefits those who have something to gain or lose per the topic of this article. To anyone working in this time period, what do we care if the metrics for work force participation rate, the employment rate, the small wage increase rate are at this or that level? Really, ask yourself, beyond the passing curiosity in such numbers that 95% of the nation ignores, how does it make dinner or rent or fuel or insurance or healthcare more accessible? It does none of this.
This article is for the investment community and for the job bosses to consider their economic landscape. It is written as if it is pertinent to us the masses by talking about us, but that's no more relevant than the two farmers chatting across the fence about how their goat herds are doing: none of the goats care or understand how that discussion impacts their hay rations.
8
I have noticed that grocery and retail chains & fast food are posting for applicants but surely much of that is seasonal and most are part-time (no benefits necessary) and generally are "as-needed" positions meaning one might be scheduled work X-amount of hours and must be available to work, but may not actually get called to work. The programs they use to project foot traffic and other factors are what determines who works and when. They have gamed this system so there is little loss to them but at the employee's expense.
This is no long-term solution to good paying jobs with security. In addition, rarely is it noted that food, and energy costs have been constantly rising for several years now and show no signs of leveling off. Hard to see brightness in throwing working people a few low paying temporary positions which will be the first to disappear when the market changes.
10
These maybe jobs....but they are not careers. No long term commitment. Most without benefits or a pension plan. The shame is that the sycophant base of Trump will not see beyond the headline and gobble this up as a one more example of all that “Winning” the conman promised.
4
Both the unemployment rate and the employment rate have continued the slow-growing trends they have been on since 2010. The employment rate is still well below the peak 2000 level and the rate of increase does not seem to be flattening out, as it did at that time. So despite the very low U-3 unemployment rate the signs are that there are still many people who would join the workforce, if only wages would rise. But despite the huge efforts made at supply-side stimulus, which includes low interest rates as well as tax cuts, investment has not increased at a good rate during the recovery - it is obviously limited by slow-growing demand. And demand can only increase slowly if wages and salaries do not increase. Supply-side economics has failed again.
5
@skeptonomist
Agree with you that demand can only increase if wages increase. However, the tax cut wasnot really a supply-side play. Corporate tax cuts would only increase employment if the only reason companies weren't hiring was due to lack of cash. They have, and had, plenty of cash, so increasing the corporate cash-flow did nothing for the larger economy.
A massive infrastructure bill is necessary and would create jobs.
3
@skeptonomist "So despite the very low U-3 unemployment rate the signs are that there are still many people who would join the workforce, if only wages would rise."
-----
Or if there were jobs in their field IN THEIR LOCAL COMMUNITING AREA. A white-collar worker is not generally going to be happy working in a retail or construction job which requires standing on one's feet for 8 hours of the day, for example.
3
Neil is quite selective with his praise (astonishment), as other also commented, of US labor market performance from BLS employment data. His current praise has it the best of times since the 60s. Notable is that a nation that 'enjoys' among the highest GDP/capita, and one of the lowest unemployment scores, has 3 trillion $ in the GDP, for health care. In 2018 it sustained 16,137,000 jobs. By 2022 more than 1.6 million additional healthcare professional practitioner and technician occupation jobs are expected, the most of any single occupation in the economy. Healthcare including social assistance are projected to add 4 million jobs by 2026 . No, it is NOT gerontology but mental illness that is the number ailment in the land. 9.8 million, or 4.0%—experiences a serious mental illness that substantially interferes with or limits one or more major life activities.
1 in 5 youth aged 13–18 (21.4%) experiences a severe mental disorder at some point during their life. For children aged 8–15, the estimate is 13%.
The Opioid 'epidemic' has added several 100 billion $ to GDP and countless well paid jobs in the health care sector. 40 percent of adults report using prescription opioids in 2015. 20.2 million adults experienced a substance use disorder. 10.2 million adults (50.5%) had concurring mental illness. Fatalities linked to opioids including fentanyl killed 72,000 people (NIH account of nationwide drug deaths) a rise of 40 percent over 52,404 drug deaths recorded in 2015 .
2
The Republicans cannot manage the economy very well. All this exuberance will translate into another financial debacle that will bring the stock market and economy down a few notches because of GOP mismanagement in a landscape similar to Bush’s economy in ‘08.
8
This is whistling in the dark. The details matter. Workers are very insecure. Wages have to catch up from decades of misappropriation to be where they should be. based on overall growth over the last 40-50 years, the minimum wage now should have been on the order of $23/hr. A perceived rise now, in the face of sustained (decades) and radical wealth increases among the financial elite is a minimum needed to prevent massive civil unrest. The question is how many Americans feel secure in their lives? How many feel financially secure? That they'll be able to live decent lives in retirement and have good health? Macro economic stats don't show any of that.
Don't even bother talking about "the economy" unless you want to discuss how Average Americans are actually doing and how they assess their prospects and their children's prospects. How many are in poverty? How many are comfortable and looking toward a bright future? Those numbers are less cheerful. And more real.
16
I am an Australian academic and we keep getting these positive employment stats BUT they do not reflect secure jobs: massive casualization including zero hour contracts/methodologies that interpret 6 hours a week as 'employed'. With a full third of the workforce casualized you cannot get a bank loan or in some cases even rent without job security. Construction workers are now 'self employed' don't carry adequate insurance and are destroyed by accident and injury....these figures mask the nightmare of the working poor.
26
This isn't about the fed. It is about tax cuts, and reduction of regulations. Wages are catching up. Don't choke off the growth with rate increases particularly when money is pouring into US Treasuries because of the rates we already have versus Germany at 40 basis points for 10 yrs.
@John Sullivan
Tax cuts that have overwhelmingly gone into stock buy-backs, and have substantially contributed to a 2018 federal budget deficit that may top $1 trillion.
If our ruling party really wanted to fuel economic growth, they would've instead pushed for an infrastructure bill, that would've created solid, full-time jobs and helped correct our $5 trillion infrastructure deficit. Remember that next time you fly into Newark, La Guardia--or any of the other US airports that wouldn't even be considered third rate in today's China.
16
@Dr. Nubby
Agree 100%!!
2
Now, if employers would just look twice at those over 60. Age discrimination is rampant
20
"... it would be nice to see sustained wage growth substantially higher than inflation, not just in a single month..."
Real wages growth (net of inflation) can only come with growth in productivity. Growth in productivity sustains real wage growth - but it is also the source of corporate profits. While we are seeing some signs of real wage growth in the current environment, corporate profits are at a sustained peak over the last several years. There is a distinct imbalance between the portion of productivity growth that has been directed into real wages growth over the last few decades, and the portion of productivity growth that has been directed to corporate profits.
Has anything changed to alter this dynamic? To the contrary, the recent Trump "Tax Reform" and recent legislation in many states ("Right to Work" laws) and court decisions have further tilted the balance in favor of corporate profits and away from workers real wage growth, by weakening labor's strength while entrenching corporation's ability to decide themselves how much of productivity growth's yield to keep as profits and how much to grudgingly give up as wage increases. Nothing in the current administration's activities has done anything to change this balance, nor are Republicans likely to do anything in that direction should they continue in full control.
Get out and vote - that is the single best way to sustain real wage growth for workers.
25
The 3.1% Y-o-Y wage growth figure is skewed by the severe hurricanes last year. When they look back at the data in a year, the numbers will seem less impressive. And average numbers don’t tell you much about their distribution. The bottom half of wage earners are still struggling. Most wage gains over the past decade have gone to high income earners. One month doesn’t change that.
The labor participation issue remains because employers still demand absurd qualifications for low wages and long hours. The moaning and whining about a lack of skilled workers crumbles when you challenge employers about age, gender, and racial discrimination.
I still find well educated workers in their 30s and 40s struggling to get interviews. I can’t imagine the situation for those over 50. But employers in many sectors still refuse to train employees, so they won’t hire many 20 something workers either. Labor participation across age groups is still historically low.
The recession was really severe and changed management’s mentality toward labor. You need a really tight labor market for a prolonged period of time to return it to anything close to normal. We’re clearly not there yet.
42
If the Dems take over we will be back to slow growth and high unemployment-just like when Obama was there...
9
@derek High unemployment was initially triggered by the Great Recession inherited by Obama from the Bush presidency. The unemployment rate continued to improve from 2010 on. From the global economic meltdown eventually came sustained growth. Growth would have been enhanced from Obama's Jobs Act. This, plus more initiatives, didn't pass muster with an obstructionist Republican majority in both the House and Senate over the last six years of the Obama presidency.
39
@derek That's because the Republicans first tanked the economy and made a mess of the financial system.
20
Um, funny how I remember that it was Bush and the Repubs that crashed the economy and Obama who came to the rescue that was fought by the Repubs every inch of the way. The recovery started under Obama and the only question now is whether huge deficits caused by Repub tax cuts and Trump trade wars will crash the economy again. Of course, as usual the Dems will fix it ready for the Repubs to crash it again. It's the cycle that's been going on since Regan. Funny how Americans have such short memories.
23
Sure wish Medicare kicked in at age 55 or 60.
22
@John Dunlap - That would have been helpful to me.
But note that Medicare is not a panacea. Like all health related decision in the USA, Medicare choices can be fairly complex. You have supplementary gap plans to choose from, all with different types of benefits and deductions.
Then you have to choose a drug plan (part D), where a huge amount of providers vie for your attention with all sorts of deductibles (or no deductibles), co-pays, drug schedules that are different for each plan and that doughnut loophole that could affect people who need moderately expensive
Oh and there is also Medicare Advantage plans, which supplant the need for the gap plans and some of which incorporate Part D drug plans also. These also have their own deductibles.
In other words, be careful what you wish for, it might come true...
5
@Joseph There is also the issue that many doctors only accept a limited number of Medicare patients. My husband and I moved and we are have a great deal of trouble finding a good doctor (as opposed to one desperate for patients, for good reason). For example, we tried to make an appointment with one and were told he hasn't accepted any new Medicare patients since 2011.
7
@Joseph - I can't argue your points except to broadly say, no healthcare arrangement will be perfect. Nevertheless, our current for profit healthcare/insurance industries almost always disadvantage patients. Also, one thing I have discovered is that fewer and fewer companies offer portable insurance coverage after so many years of service. The lack of portability distorts the labor market and creates gaps in coverage until Medicare kicks in. Not sure what the answer is other than ACA - assuming it survives.
1
Who is this guy? He sounds like a shill for the administration. Inflation has not been driven by wages. Real wage growth is so far behind compared to the rise in the cost of health care,housing,and transportation that there is no chance of any but the richest to get richer. When the trade unions are the largest organized force against the untrammeled greed of the multinational corporations you know we are in trouble.
28
Sounds like a big "thank you" to President Trump is in order. The Movement he started will continue to VICTORY on November 6th.
11
@whoiskevinjones The only place Trump is going is to a federal penitentiary.
12
@whoiskevinjones well see how long the trump high lasts lol
2
@whoiskevinjones
Hi Rip Van Winkle,
Just wake up after a decade long nap? Let me fill you in on a few things.
The Bush administration, through a program of overspending on unproductive foreign military adventure tourism, tax cuts for the very wealthy, and asleep-at-the-switch minding of the finance 'industry, produced a perfect storm of economic chaos. President Obama began the slow process of building back a healthy fiscus which has the Orange Orangutan inherited. He, in true GOP fashion (they're elephants; why can they never remember their idiocies of the past?), is blowing that hard-won progress by (everyone, now) again a tax cut aimed largely aimed at making the very wealthy even wealthier.
The more things change the more mired the GOP becomes in its own dogmatic insistence that tax cuts solve all problems.
2
In Jan 2007 the index of consumer confidence was 96
In June 2008, it was 56.
the bust can happen quickly.
We just hit a near record high level of confidence last month. So, things should unravel fall of 2019.
14
Kansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma.
These failed states, all led by GOP majorities, are great examples of what we can expect when their policies finally replace those of the Democrats.
43
Bush 2 and the conservatives were trying to turn things back to the 1890s. Looks like their conservative donor class got their wish. So easy to do too. Call the ACA Obama Care. Call the estate tax the death tax and on and on.
14
The biggest factor is how fast the fake Republican economy collapses this time.
31
@MR
I'm wondering how you manage to call the recovery fake.
If it's fake, why is Barack Obama on the stump taking credit for starting it?
And, if it is fake, how can it collapse? Doesn't something have to be real to do that?
Bash Trump for a lot - really a lot - but give him credit for this recovery. Because, had the economy tanked after he took office as so many Democrats predicited, do you think there would be any shortage of criticism?
5
@thegoodeg The economy has not recovered for 80% of the country. It's only doing well for the top 20%. The performance of Wall St is irrelevant to real Americans. None of us have pensions or own stock of any kind. The only one making money on my 401K is the fund manager! Most of us will retire on our social security and whatever we can get for our house IF we can afford to move away from our friends and family- if not we'll be trying to scrape by on a reverse mortgage.
15
@thegoodeg
No worries about the U.S. borrowing 1.5 trillion dollars so as not to default on loan payments thanks to that tax cut for the very wealthy and corporations?
1
Face it, most American workers have become serfs (I refuse to use that other s word). Most American families are living almost week to week. Everything we buy from the company store is over inflated to pay for overpaid sports and well known Hollywood types. The middle class is being squeezed for every nickel. We will never “catch up “. The solution, you think up yourselves, mine , I’ll keep to myself too.
20
@Cliff R
Whew!
I'm glad I don't live next door.
2
Can we please see an article on who to thank for this great economy? Obama or Trump?
2
@John - Thank the FED who maintained low interest rates for historically long amount of time and for all the liquidity they pushed into the market through their QE programs.
It is these factors that has given companies the profits they now enjoy, not organic growth and that have also driven the stock market to the high level it is at.
9
@John, look at historical data in the charts. The answer is both. The recovery started gradually in 2009, and it is still ongoing, fueled in a big way by the tax cut, which is just another form of of "stimulus". I am sure you remember that when Obama wanted to have a stimulus of his own, the Republican-dominated Congress stifled that process. Of course, the flip side is that the national debt is increasing, despite the claim that the "expanding economy will compensate for it". At some point in the future another generation of politicians will use the national debt as the reason for doing away with "entitlements"...
2
I wave the lonely flag of fairness here.
The NY Times would have to publish what might be its largest issue ever to catalogue all the errors of style and substance Presidnet Trump has made.
But, in the interests of accuracy, fair-minded opponents have to admit the enonomy is purring like a well-tuned engine.
This fact is so inarguable that even Barack Obama, rather than contest it, acknowledges it and, in fact, takes credit for starting it.
A commentator who can't see their way clear to accept this won't can't be considered honest broker, thus diminishing the value of their opinions.
4
@thegoodeg The economy's running like well-oiled machine you say? All of those who are working 2 jobs at substandard wages and who can barely pay essential living expenses might beg to differ with your assessment. Add to that the middle class "largesse" gained by the Republican deceptively-negligible 2017 tax cut and what you have are many Americans still waiting to benefit from that so-called well-oiled machine.
10
Seems to me that we are just living large courtesy of all the debt we are willing to rack up; on both a personal and national level. But now interest rates are going up, so the cost of borrowing will rise. And our exploding national debt will continue to consume a larger percent of our coffers. We’re wearing a fancy outfit that we just bought on our credit card; enjoy it while you can.
27
One word, fracking. We are producing more fossil fuels than we are importing. Everyone is buying pickups and suvs, no one is even trying to conserve. We are a very stupid species, our only concern is the now. Merry Christmas.
25
Supply side economics to produce sustained economic growth is like pushing on a wet noodle.
We need to increase demand which will lead to increased sales, increased profits; and, increased wages and salaries.
Demand side economics, higher wages and lower taxes for the middle class,that is what our economy needs.
12
"...and this is the best time for the American labor market in at least 18 years and maybe closer to 50 — though it would be nice to see sustained wage growth substantially higher than inflation, not just in a single month..."
Nice? Nice is a sale on organic food! Nice is finding a $20 in a jacket put away last fall. Nice is driving to work and hitting all green lights!
How about sustained and considerable wage growth!?
3% for someone making $30K is $900 a year, less then $20 a week! Pre tax! And not everyone is getting a 3% raise, its just employers might be offering 3% more then they long have been. And how great is it for a long term employee to find out that a new employee just came in at a rate that it took the older employee years to climb to!
I take huge issue with the notion that companies are now feeling comfortable with raising prices. Are you kidding me? Have you been shopping the last few years? Geesus...all I see is higher prices for even the generic, or store brands.
Until the American workers see real and sustained wage increases, all this hoopla about job growth (at the start of another micro season!) ain't worth the pixels its printed with!
All the talk about the Trump effects, or Obama's, aint adding up to all around better conditions, not when wages remain so outpaced by increased costs of living. Utilities have gone up. Property taxes increased (without relative efficiencies and investments in place) health care costs, etc...
Wages must go up!
38
@Boregard
Just wait until next year when the full effect of the tax cuts take hold. If the republicans keep the congress McConnell will start cutting Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, Unemployment Insurance like Freddy Krueger let loose at night in a sorority house.
And just wait until the 25% tariffs take full effect. People who are surviving by getting food and household items from the Dollar Tree and The 99 Cents Only stores combined with local food banks will have to cut their food purchases by at least 25%. It will be rough.
14
@Boregard — for someone making $30K a year, an extra $20/week is a lot of money. So what that prices and taxes have gone up. Prices and taxes always go up. The difference is that wages have finally been increasing — for months. Sorry if the higher wages are making the long term employees jealous of the new hires who are finally coming back to work. The new jobs are real, and for those who haven’t been employed for years, it’s a miracle. And yes, it helps to have fewer new immigrants competing for those jobs. But Dems, you just keep hoping for that downtown, that new recession, that out of control inflation. Keep talking about tariffs and trade wars and dire warnings about cuts to Social Security. Me, I say hail to the Chief!
@PL
Obviously you're a multi millionaire or maybe billionaire and have never interacted with someone who makes $30K a year.
Let me tell you that someone who makes $30K a year does not think $20/week is a lot of money!! It's just better than nothing and helps a little to keep up with inflated energy costs.
1
That wage growth for October was pure noise. Look at the components and it will be gone in November.
10
Businesses raise prices for two unrelated reasons, they need to raise margins to compensate for lower than anticipated sales or the demand for the goods or services has been driven up by lowered supply. Big corporations who have few competitors will raise prices for which they offer to sell their goods and buyers tend to acquiesce because they are unable to find alternate sources. Alternatively, sales are higher than the supplies available which leads to buyers competing for the goods by offering to pay more. In this economy, each case must be examined to understand what the price increases mean.
When demand is strong, more goods and services are purchased by consumers, but unless this demand increases, there are no incentives for businesses to invest in greater productive capacity. When inventories begin to rise, it indicates that the demand is saturated and so expanded productive capacity would waste money and could ruin a business. Job growth in such times could be followed by little growth from then on or some job losses.
The size of this tax cut really makes it difficult to tell whether it will lead to steady economic expansion or not.
5
Is a part time worker, 2 hours/week, considered to be employed or unemployed in the statistics?
15
@Gandalfdenvite
Yes. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics: "People are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey reference week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, as well as regular full-time, year-round employment."
14
It is worth noting that:
1. 40 years of flat wages for working people, and the malignant incessant increase in income and wealth inequality,
make this article essentially meaningless, is not misleading.
A better title would be "now that the average wage is a killing, not a living wage, the corporate masters are hiring".
2. Given the incessant growth in world population, success of the human species as a civilization depends on ending our plundering of the ecosystem, and destruction of a livable climate system, meaning we should all be defining success as learning how to live successfully on less. The wealthy should be learning how to live on way way way way way less,
or moving to Mars.
25
@riverrunner
I wonder (fear?) how dire your comments would have been if the economic news had not been so historically positive.
3
Would you care to adjust the wage increase figure for inflation, at which point we are no doubt looking at a year to year increase of under 1%? And by the by, does the wage increase figure take into account the large metro areas that have implemented substantial increases in the minimum wage?
And then might you compare the increase in after-tax corporate profits as a result of the so-called ‘Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,’ with the less than 1% increase in wages? If wealth is being generated, where is it going? Not to workers, that’s for sure. It’s buying back stock, paying out dividends, padding executive compensation packages.
Not to the grand infrastructure program we have been told is ‘any day now.’ And which is more like ‘never,’ with a 2019 projected deficit of $1 trillion.
And factor in the rise in interest rates driven not by Fed efforts to fine tune but by the federal government’s ravenous appetite for bond sales as a consequence of the exploding budget deficit? The American consumer economy runs on borrowing; as interest rates rise, borrowing power diminishes - and defaults begin an upward creep.
That less than 1% wage increase ain’t going very far.
P.S. Pay attention to the residential real estate market, which has rapidly cooled off this year. Look at recent productivity gains... or rather, lack thereof.
Like all things Trump, it’s all on the surface. Scratch the surface and it begins to get ugly.
16
@chambolle
And gas prices are steadily climbing.
For 50+ year olds with experience and education, the living wage job market isn't booming-it's not even dragging its feet. Perhaps the NYT could let us specifically know the job skills/titles/companies that are, based on reliable evidence, truly accessible to over 50 year old.
30
@Diana K
I work in Silicon Valley writing and editing marketing materials for high-tech startups and enterprises. I'm 71, and I've never had so much work. I work remotely, and my inbox is flooded with potential contracts and full-time jobs. They want people who can do what I do, with my English degree --- write, copy-edit, and proofread the tons of content marching onto the web from high-tech companies great and small.
They have an insatiable appetite for marketing emails, white papers, web pages, video scripts, solution briefs, blogs and more blogs. The pay ranges from $40 to $60 per hour.
I was told that a degree in English was an affectation. But many companies need my expertise. I got my start in ad agencies as was a cpoywriter in the days of print. A print brochure took weeks to produce. They're like old Cadillacs now in my print portfolio, which nobody ever asks to see.
As in the New Yorker cartoon of two dogs in a bar: "On the Internet nobody knows you're a dog." Nobody cares about my age or ever asks it. "What can you do? That's all it takes to get work now.
I don't credit Trump for this any more than I do a rooster for making the sun rise. It's the incredibly rich bank of talent and creativity that has flooded in here from all over the U.S. and the world. I work with people from every country in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. I don't want to be anybody's boss; I don't want a "career path." Give me a check in the mail.
12
The unemployment rate keeps falling because the government keeps eliminating people from being counted as unemployed because they haven't actively looked for work in the last 4 weeks.
If you go to the government BLS website here:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
You'll see that:
In October, 1.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force... These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.
====>>> They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Then there are 4.6 million part-time workers who would like to work full time but whose hours were cut or can't find work.
Then there is the labor participation rate, which at 62.9% is little changed over the past year. This is the number that should have been mentioned in this article.
So despite all the hoopla about how many open jobs remain unfilled or how low the unemployment rate may be, the reality is that there are at least 5 million people NOT working who would like to work but can't find the right position at the right remuneration or hours.
23
I have 2 close friends, white, male PhDs in science/technology, who are 55 and 58 and have both been unemployed for more than a year. Both had very successful careers for large corporations and with numerous honors. Last year there were 4 similar men, but 2 have found positions. No matter how little they ask for, over 55’s are having a hard time.
I am a woman, over 60, but self-employed for 35 years. That has its ups and downs but turned out to be a great decision for aging.
This economy is not what the numbers seem to indicate.
I would love to see the NYT do an article of unemployment among seniors.
I think 55 is pretty young! A lot of gas still in the tank! Along with wisdom, drive and experience. And the will to mentor...
49
The question not being asked or analyzed by the press to date, is how well things would be doing (matrices) as well as how much more stable had Trump done absolutely nothing in connection with business regulations, Tariffs, international trade agreements, and other gyrations through which he has put the country through. Had the progression from the end of the Obama administration continued slow and steady forward (and upward) we would be at least where we are now, without degree of instability, and as well, without the extreme volitility of the markets which has (at least in 2018) left many people's investments (401K, etc.) in about the same place they were at the start of 2018 (and at one point the past week), in the hole for 2018 for some key sectors of the stock market. So the blather about how great the economy is and giving kudos to Trump needs to be done in context, and not in a vacuum; as well as considering all of the variables and impacts.
10
@David
Plus the caps on interest deductions on home payments is starting to hit the housing sector even in CA.
How long/much can the market grow, who pays for all this growth, is it the planet and life on earth that pay? Energy/matter can not be created out of nothing, but can the economy get bigger and bigger... without resources being spent somewhere else?
5
Sound's like were so busy that we'll need thousands more "undocumented immigrant workers" to do the jobs Americans won't do...
5
@Aaron Robots and computers will do more and more work!
2
Nixon is president and the guy from the Federal Treasury is doing a public service notice.
Something like this: Hello morons. The American Dream just died and you now are required to manage your own absurd life. Do study Economics 101 and see exactly what will happen 50 years from now. We at Federal Treasury do not care what happens to you and you expect "The Feds" to provide? With what?
I remember the event, I understood what it meant and it wasn't seen much after that. Why would investors want to increase productivity if the profit was elsewhere? Tax dodgers aren't shot for Treason, Robots are cheap, profit robbed from resources is prime and human demographics are screaming for a pandemic.
6
Surely someone in the data can at least tell where the growth is coming from. The participation rate and the underemployment of many people mean there are individuals available, if they are a match is the question. We could always import some labor if needed. There is plenty of room to grow just reshoring jobs.
3
Nowhere in the article is talk of what KINDS of jobs are being created. They are heavily low-wage service jobs. They do not pay nearly the same as the jobs lost before the recession.
Then, wage rises are small and not as high as expenses. Mortgage rates and housing costs are up (as are credit card balances and interest on them). Health insurance premiums, gas, HOA fees, etc.--all going up. Workers are falling behind, while corporations have record profits that are not shared with their employees. Even a mild recession with lost jobs will see much pain.
17
Another indicator to track would be household debt. If people borrow to spend, on the expectation of future higher income; which is questionable given the "recovery" so far, then we get a sugar high from consumer deficit spending with a nasty correction dowe the road. We've been there before. 2007 to be exact.
11
Well over four decades ago, my first job in a field where you didn't ever expect to get rich allowed me to rent an apartment without roommates on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, own a car and insure it, and have ample money left over for food, clothing, entertainment and savings. If I recall correctly, all of my health benefits were fully paid or cost very little, which was not unusual back then. Plus, the company contributed to a pension, also not unusual. Through a combination of parental help, savings and jobs, I graduated from a fairly expensive university with no debt.
Fast forward to 2018 and I learn through a friend that a similar, entry-level job in the same field with even more responsibility at an even more prestigious organization now pays a salary about 40% less in current dollars. So, please, let's not put too much emphasis on these job numbers. There are real jobs that actually pay a living wage and then there are many, many of the current jobs, which do not.
48
@LIChef Times change, you can't do that today almost nobody can. You need some roommates, if you live in a big and expensive city no car for you, and you better stay healthy as well. To live you don't need an apartment to yourself, a car or health insurance. Here minimum wage gets you a "living wage"
1
@vulcanalex If you’re satisfied with everyone at the minimum wage and many workers actually regressing in their wages, that’s up to you. Us East Coast northern elites prefer progress.
13
@vulcanalex
Wow, your comment has just confirmed my belief that America needs to split into two countries. One for you conservative Republican Southerners and flyovers, and one for us west and east coast people who understand and want a progressive society. Frankly, I'm tired of my Blue state tax dollars supporting people in regressive red states.
My advice is to cut back on your discretionary spending if you are fortunate enough to have extra money and start saving those dollars to get you through the recession when it inevitably comes. I'm not implying that a depression is imminent or even trying to predict when the next recession will hit. But saving some money now will make you feel more secure when the S&P tumbles.
10
@Tony If you have debt you should pay it off, if you don't have six months of emergency fund save it, that has nothing to do with any potential recession. Just good practice for logical people. Those without such don't have investments so the "market" means little to them.
4
@vulcanalex Sadly a tiny part of the population. Six months ? For many a fantasy
1
@Tony
Goods and services are cheaper six to eighteen months after the inception of a major recession. A reserve fund of an individual can take advantage of that.
So why am I not seeing this boom? I'm a paralegal, with 20 years of experience. While I got an average cost of living raise, my insurance premiums rose 13%, prices for food, gas, medicine and everything else rose, what, just under 3%, and my interest rates on my students loans have also gone up.
I have a friend of mine who works in medical billing making $13.50 an hour and can't afford to rent a two bedroom apartment for herself and her two kids. She's living with me now or she'd been homeless.
I have another friend who's a medical assistant for Florida Hospital. She also works in the evening delivering food and has a third job watching people dogs while they're on vacation.
There are a lot of people out here who are not seeing this great economy that being reported.
30
@Patty O Because the boom is in opportunity for employment, not in massive wage increases. Business is too smart to be competing for employees unless they will make that business money. Medical billing is done in India for very little by people with actual medical training, I bet your other friend spends a lot and does not get much child support. Such jobs don't support a family without a spouse to pay their half.
2
@vulcanalex
A couple of problems I have with your response. The article says that average hourly earnings are up 3.1%. Neither one of my friends got a COLA even that high. No one is demanding massive wage increases.
The friend that works in medical billing does paralegal work that's specific to Florida. Not a job that's easily filled by someone in India, since she has to be able to go to court. She has a 4 year paralegal studies degree and is certified in medical billing. I'm not sure what you mean by "spends a lot." She certainly isn't frivolous.
A 2 bd apt here rents for appx $1,300.00 a month. Anything cheaper than that is income restricted & has a year & a half waiting list. Trust me. We've been looking. The average wage for a paralegal job in FL is $48,000. But, that's in the big cities only & the cost of living there is double.
So all 3 of us have 4 year degrees & certifications. We're all in our late 40's & early 50's, all have years of experience, & all work in industries that make 100's of millions in profit each year. And it's too much to ask to make a living wage?
It's ridiculous.
21
I already pulled one third of my investments. We are basically on crack, and eventually we will have to come down. Wages are very low which means people are taping their Credit Cards. One day those bills will come due.
15
@Don
Similar here Don. Let's hope Neil is smarter than we are!
3
The recent jobs numbers are telling an incomplete story. There remain deep structural imbalances in the U.S. economy between the allocation of inflation-adjusted returns between the labor and capital inputs in the macroeconomy. The recently passed Republican tax bill is emblematic of one of several structural imbalances with over 80% of its benefits accruing to a microscopic segment of domestic households.
The polls of the U.S. electorate unequivocally indicate 99.7% of U.S. households are NOT confident in their finances or employment. Household debt levels, particularly student loans, mortgages and credit cards are at record levels and it will take much more than increases in the availability of domestic minimum wage jobs with uncertain weekly hours and no health/dental insurance or retirement benefits to assuage the fears of millions of U.S. citizens.
The 1000 pound gorilla sitting in the middle of the room is the long overdue radical restructuring of the domestic healthcare delivery system. The U.S. has run out of time in restructuring it's woefully inefficient and inexcusable inequitable healthcare systems which overcharges by factors of 5 to 40 times for comparable goods and services in other economically and technologically advanced nations.
Having the option of a minimum wage job were illness or unforeseen accident of birth or occurrence can devastate and destabilize a family is the real terrorism in the United States.
15
This essay on the job market falls short. I think this "boom" in the economy and uptick in employment depends too much on deficit spending since government revenues are down as a result of the tax cuts for the upper echelon. It is hard to see the boom being sustainable as the tax cuts continue, and we have seen how fast a bubble economy can crash. Complicating the future are several factors. For example the baby boomers bulge in the population is heading into retirement, largely very inadequately funded, and they will need expensive healthcare and support. This happens at a time when talk of cuts to the social support net are popular among conservatives. And they are working to limit immigrants entering the workforce thus reducing the ratio of workers to retirees. Seems like a worrisome future given the absence of rational thought in the conservative elements of our government.
9
The unemployment rate may be low, but what kind of jobs are we talking about? Decent pay to keep up with the rising cost of living? Health benefits? Retirement savings? What percentage are working in the gig economy? Today's independent contractors are no better off than the post civil war sharecroppers.
29
@anne
Yes! Even in big engineering firms, techs are working "contract." It's a strange situation. It's all global - chasing the cheapest labor source. Circular flow long gone. Unanchored money. Quantitative tightening. ETC.!
4
I'm highly skilled, highly educated, and have an impeccable track record. 273 jobs applied for, 87 interviews since 2010 when I was 52. Still searching eight years later. Age discrimination is worse than ever.
Government issued unemployment numbers never really made any sense, just like cost of living numbers. Let's count this, eliminate that, switch out this, tweak, tweak, tweak, things look great, and so it goes.
Politicians get life long positions, but the corporate executive they serve, who mostly are over 70, quickly dispose of those over 50.
52
@mikelp Great points and if business is really in "need" of employees you would have a job. Perhaps if your skill set matches a small business you need to start one.
@vulcanalex
You probably mean well, but.......I doubt. you have ever been a person over 45. looking for a job which paid a good salary. Work is there all right, but decent salaries are not. (I’m not looking for work..just defending those who are.)
3
Mike- et al- please indicate what your field and training are in. Not throwing shade but if its art history, French lit or urban studies, you’re experience is really no shocker...on the other hand its is STEM, business, accounting , would than have to agree ageism is alive and well. These anecdotes being posted offer limited insight without indicating the field of employment posters are seeking/qualified for.
There is a crisis brewing with the lack of job opportunities for those over 40 that pay a decent wage. Applicant tracking systems (e.g. Taleo, Workday, BrassRing) make it easy for employers to screen out older workers by asking for graduation year and past salaries. If you make it through, the younger hiring managers choose less experienced candidates because of age bias. Ageism remains the last acceptable form of discrimination in the workplace and it is almost impossible to prove.
62
Would very much like to see a breakdown of those new jobs in terms of work sectors, service, industrial, etc. and the median pay in each sector. Otherwise, I'm not sure that anyone should be crowing about jobs added.
35
Guys on the roof may have harnesses but no ropes or anchors. And there’s a power cord behind one’s foot.
Good for business if you’re an orthopedist, neurosurgeon, rehab doctor, hospital or nursing home.
Why use the pic?
7
@BL, the slope on that roof is not that steep, besides there's probably two more waiting readily on the ground for every one that falls off, even more in the parking lot at Home Depot.
1
@BL
I am a Public Works Construction Inspector in a large California City. On my job those workers would all have a full body harness with a lanyard attached to a life line capable of holding a 5000 lb weight. In addition I didn't see a safety rail around the leading edge of the roof.
I think some contractors like paying high workers compensation insurance rates. Of course all of the workers I deal with get paid the Prevailing Wage (Union Scale for Republicans)
By the way I got hired for this job when I was 65 years old
2
That's nice that the job market has reached new heights, but what kind of jobs are we talking about? Certainly not the long lasting full time jobs all people desire. They are probably part time minimum wage jobs that won't sustain an individual, let alone a family. Smoke and mirrors. ..as usual.
16
@Tim Moffatt - You might be interested in this BLS data selection:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194
This data set shows that involuntary part-time work has declined from a peak of 9,145,000 workers in May of 2009 to 4,621,000 today.
1
There are numerous reasons for low unemployment (currently declared to be 3.7 percent): many can't find work where they are, can't qualify for the jobs that are available, or have stopped looking for work, or are too old, or are in the "wrong ethnic/religious category to get hired...
7
Of course the job market is booming, since companies are hiring based on the idea that the Trump Administration is doing away with workplace and environmental regulations. With no policing, companies can get away with horrible decisions that are cheap to them, but that we Americans will all have to pay for years and decades from now. And what political party will have to deal with the consequences of this administration's complete disregard for our children's future? The Democratic Party, of course...picking up the pieces if possible, and facing the whining and screaming of spoiled and pampered citizens. Probably it will be too late and there will be no way to fix what is being broken today.
15
It's good times for waiters, waitresses and dishwashers. I see signs all over. Fast food chains I never heard of. Maids will do well too, if we can keep out those refugees. The photo shows guys working on a house but this is the failing New York Times where the news is fake.
It does raise an interesting possibility, though. Ignoring global warming could turn out to be a big job creator.
4
If you believe that the New York Times is failing and offers fake news, why are you reading and posting here? This is America and you live in a free country. You can always go to Fox News, but they don't believe in global warming. It's fake news.
3
@Tony I read it to keep up on what they are saying, and of course some is not fake as well. Pretty simple and if you have to "believe" in science and use "consensus" it is not very strong science.
@Tony I think that was sarcasm. At least, I hope it was.
1
David Leonhardt recently wrote a column about the specious nature of jobs reporting. The "official" government report each month is an over-simplification of the job market in the U.S.
I personally wrote the editors of the NYT and encouraged them to set a new trend and provide its readers with better information. I see they are not taking my advice.
For the record: I don't think presidents really have huge impact on the job market. If they did, we would all be rich, right?
13
@mrfreeze6 - The full data from the BLS survey is available online:
https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment
You can pick your area of interest and call up any data you like, creating graphs and charts, or downloading the data to your computer.
@Jonathan, My point is that the media, to which most people turn for this kind of information, neglects to report job figures that really make sense.
Do you have a problem with the masses getting more accurate information in a better context?
1
The writer paints a far rosier scenario than our household has experienced. We are in the Portland, OR, suburbs and in the last year and a half, gasoline prices have climbed $0.80 per gallon. Groceries? I am paying around 130-150% higher prices at the grocery store. The so-called "tax cut" did not a thing for retirees and only added a super-sized burden on our children and grandchildren. Add to that the increased costs of borrowing . . . have you (the writer) actually looked at the rate on your credit card lately? Perhaps you were one of the few who was fortunate enough in the tax-grab to see an increase in your personal fortunes. I would rather have seen the monies go towards infrastructure building, which would actually accomplish two things: great-paying jobs for millions AND a safe and updated transportation system.
Good grief, does every Republican out there think they can simply lie and everyone else buys it?
26
@Diana You live in a very high cost area of the country, are probably retired without sufficient resources, and today other than a house or car nobody should have debt. I agree infrastructure is required and a tax to pay for it, perhaps after these elections we can get that moving.
1
Sounds good. This window dressing looks good, as well. However, many economists, including the CBO sees the writing on the wall. When the dust settles and the looming deficit with interest payments due the picture will become clearer.
This lost revenue from the huge tax cuts to corporations, the downright inhuman quest of the GOP to destroy any semblance of health coverage left of the ACA will come home to roost.
The job market cannot compensate for companies who will be able to offer junk health plans, as well as being able to "save," on their portion of employees health coverage because they can buy policies that do not cover preexisting conditions.
In the Trump era, this is just another example of ballyhoo, pre-congratulations that in one to two years time will all of a sudden come to the realization that this is just a bubble that is soon to be pricked.
8
Great news in isolation. But given the price of this — post-truth, destruction of good-government norms, normalization of ethnic hate — the balance is not worth it.
4
"The number of adults not in the labor force at all fell by 487,000." Does this mean that within that group of 487,000 people there are those who have been looking for, but have not found, a job for more than 6 months, right?
2
@Dan - Wrong. If you are looking for a job, you are in the labor force, no matter how long you have been looking:
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
Read the section 'Who is in the labor force'.
@Dan Great point, counting as we do is stupid especially when the data exists to know if someone is making money and employed each quarter. It might be a combination of your assumption and people finding work. The measurement systems sucks.
@Dan Yes. And it certainly doesn't count those who've been job searching for years.
2
Have you investigated whether the Trump administration has changed the definition of "employment" and how unemployment is reported? My daughter has two jobs, while her boyfriend has three to make ends meet. In the gig economy, are those jobs double and triple-counted? The economy appears "strong" if you measure it by share prices in stock markets. But stock buy backs, to goose up share prices in time for the stock option based bonuses, are on track for record highs. Mr. Irwin celebrates the jobs numbers and a "nice boom" of a building financial bubble and an administration that routinely distorts facts, including statistics.
12
@Steve Suppan - The BLS has stuck to the same methodology and question set since the late forties, in order to make the data comparable across decades:
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
The sections 'Who is counted as employed' and 'Who is counted as unemployed' will answer your questions.
Some critics say these definitions are obsolete, but changing them would bring accusations of political manipulation of the numbers.
@Steve Suppan I bet you live in a high cost large city, and your relatives don't have great skills. Here they could live pretty well with each having a full time minimum wage job. Even better if they were good wait staff.
@Steve Suppan
Whether jobs are double or triple counted depends on the type of job. The monthly jobs number is based on the Establishment Survey. Payroll jobs are counted in the Establishment Survey. So a job at Target counts, but a job as a Lyft or Uber driver does not. Nor do most jobs as baby sitters or dog walkers count, unless you are on a company's payroll.
Both payroll and non-payroll jobs are counted in the Household Survey. This survey is the basis for the unemployment rate. It also estimates how many people are working multiple jobs, i.e. about 7.8 million people or about 5% of people who are employed.
So your daughter and her boyfriend would be counted as employed in the Household Survey. They would be part of that 5% with multiple jobs. But only their payroll jobs would be counted in the Establishment Survey.
There is no indication that the Trump administration has made any changes in how these numbers are calculated. Because any changes would require the cooperation of many bureaucrats of both parties, I think we can trust the numbers.
There seems to be a common narrative weaving through many comments, that of “the white male”, as bogeyman, today nothing could be farther from the truth the WASP male of the fifties, once the titan of the business world was replaced sometime ago, a casual glance through the financial pages will find you leaving with an assortment of names largely unpronounceable, this is the age of globalization after all, as for the middle class jobs that did indeed provide Americans with a step up the ladder such as factory jobs have long since left the scene and aren’t coming back without a blood in the streets revolution, the economy and those benefiting from it the most, both CEOs and shareholders like it the way it is and screw the other ninety percent of us. Mr. Irwin somehow missed the note in yesterday’s F.T. that Ford is shedding 18,000 factory jobs in America, but no worries as the kids like to say you can always get a job at one of the new Amazon hubs stuffing boxes, supplement it with a gig driving your jalopy from Asia part time for Uber and rent out your sofa or closet on Airbnb. Does this generation of disrupters, globalists and consumers have any idea of the consequences of their cumulative actions, the homelessness so pervasive in our country is just one indicator of how corrupt our form of capitalism has become. A stunning statistic to ponder, in London suffering from a severe housing shortage for native Brits there are 40,000 unoccupied condos owned by off shore entities.
8
If during the campaign in 2016 the rate was 4.7% and Trump was claiming it could be 46% ("nobody knows!"), why couldn't it be 'actually' 34% (or thereabouts), instead of 3.7%? The source and methods of derivation remain the same!
4
The "boom of the late 60's" ended with stagflation and wage and price controls by Nixon and we had the Nixon shock.
6
@George CooperYou can Thank the dissolution of Bretton Woods, going off the gold standard and allowing the era of Milton Friedman Economics and the printing of money to fund an unpopular war(except among the usual suspects who never actually fight like Kissinger, McNamara, Cheney and their ilk), sound familiar, it should, Clinton repealed Glass Segal opening the door for Wall Street to hose the rest of us in the Great Recession and Bush Junior and Cheney to initiate the bombing of Iraq ushering in our longest ever “War on Terror”, only problem is the real terrorists are in board rooms in America or on K St. lobbying for the war du jour, not caves in Afghanistan or food stalls in Tehran.
2
Women have been dropping out of the workforce and their participation is at some of the lowest rates in decades. Maybe the government could "coax" these women to rejoin the workforce if there were family friendly work policies. Why would a woman want to work making $500 a week when it costs her $500 for child care?
12
@Jennifer I'm not in favor of government-funded childcare if the parents can afford it. I support it for parents, especially single parents, who are truly struggling and otherwise would be, or are, on Medicare and/or food stamps. I don't support it for middle-class parents who complain that they pay $10K-$25K a year for childcare and who *are already paying it.* That's just asking taxpayers to increase their incomes (at the expense of their own incomes) so already comfortable parents are even more comfortable. But if private employers want to provide onsite daycare centers as a benefit for all, fine.
1
I don't understand the need for adjectives to explain numbers?
79.3% to 79.7% the new number soared..really. I don't understand the celebration of wage growth that is barely above inflation ... and I do not see how the job growth can continue when there will be no candidates to fill jobs and this countries immigration policy is so restrictive. Finally the last three quarters of GDP growth of 2.0% 4.1%and 3.5% is a cause for celebration when we are at full employment? REALLY?
10
The market is not so happy today is it? Up 200, now down 230. The market volatility of the past month has led to sideways gains for the year, or one could think of it as angst over trade holding the market back strongly. The economy is doing fine now but the deficits are rising, the effervescent effect of tax cuts will wear off and our trade imbalance has not improved. Trump faces a far more restrictive legislative environment after the election regardless of who maintains the majority. Trump has proved himself totally inadequate for the job of implementing his radical sometimes interesting, mostly terrifying ideas. World instability is increasing with multilateral agreements biting the dust among them the transatlantic alliance that provided stability to the West for 70+ years as dictators are taking over some very important governments. The EU and Britain are in the throws of negative challenges and Russia is sitting on top of the world. The future is not bright for the economy or the country.
10
@cycledancing - This trading pattern has a lot more to do with trading than the economy. Institutional money using a complicated derivatives strategy drive the market. Computers make all the decisions, so you may see some bouncing around.
Anyway, nobody wants to hold stock over the weekend....
I was reading that men 25-34 with a high school diploma aren't participating in the the work force and had an unemployment rate of 14% if I am not mistaken. Any thoughts on how that would affect the economy in the future?
9
@C. Taylor - Interesting. Where did you read this?
It's a good time to be a corporate Recruiter. Your point about "pulling people back into the labor force" might not be that easy as baby boomers who have retired wont become un-retired any time soon. Wage growth is important but that eats into corporate profits which causes the stock market to fall.
3
@Big4alum As one of those retired baby boomers I would be happy to return to work, if appropriate work and conditions existed. Don't need that large of a paycheck as I am retired. I bet there are many more just like me.
1
New heights for the job market but further cuts in the public sector and no wage growth for the middle class. AWESOME.
25
If the job market is firing on all cylinders, I guess that doesn’t include pay increases eaten away by inflation and rising health benefit costs. Or wage inequality based on gender. Or rampant age discrimination. Or workplace sexual harassment.
Sounds more like a sputtering engine to me.
58
Really? All Cylinders? How's income inequality? How many of these amazing jobs add up to a living wage? How many provide adequate health care? How many hours must employees commute to these amazing jobs?
Uh huh...
72
Besides the people who legitimately can't find work; and the people who have given up looking for work; and the people who are working at jobs far below their job skills; and the people who claim to be disabled who are actually able to work but don’t; and the people in jails and prisons; and the people who are making their living as criminals who should probably be counted as unemployed; and the people who are too sick or crazy to work, there are also massive numbers of people in this country who "work" at useless jobs that are really not jobs.
Government jobs are frequently characterized this way, but the problem reaches far into the private sector as well. Occasionally one hears of people having jobs who "work" from home without really working. But most useless jobs are in a different category altogether and consist of things like making coffee, drinking coffee, going to useless meetings, going to lunch, writing reports and emails that nobody reads or -- in the case of many women -- simply showing up for work and looking decorative.
As far as I know, few if any, economists or sociologists are studying this matter seriously. If they did, I believe the nation would quickly learn that the true unemployment rate in this country is much higher than 3.7% and may actually be 25% or greater. I don't know what the country would actually do with this information if it had it, but generally speaking I believe it is better to know that your house is on fire than not to know.
15
I agree. The problem at this point isn’t unemployment. It’s underemployment. People may be working, but large numbers of them can’t make enough money to afford basic necessities like food, housing and health care for themselves and their families. An unemployment rate under 4% looks great on paper but if those jobs don’t translate into a living wage, it’s little more than that - just a number on a piece of paper.
26
@A. Stanton - On the other hand, we have the people who claim to be disabled who are busy driving people to the airport, delivering firewood, and painting interiors - cash only, no checks please.
I suspect that most men 25-54 who are 'not in the work force' are actually engaged in some sort of money-making activity, and are probably more productive than those who have officials jobs.
I wouldn't put down criminals either - the working conditions are tough, and there is a lot of competition!
3
@WesternMass If you are poor, no "family" for you, and you should be healthy as well so no need for insurance either. Here you can live on minimum wage, you need some roommates, and to be healthy, and no children. Pretty simple.
In Portland the job market is wide open...baristas, dish washers, servers, entry level food prep in food carts, minim marts, Amazon ( all shifts, 15.00 an hour), Burgerville, Burger King, Bob Big Burger, Little Big Burgers, Tacos to Go, Tacos to Stay, In and Out, Burritos R. Us, ICU812, on and on....take your pick, get 5 roommates, live the dream...
168
And this comment right here perfectly describes the entire problem.
18
@Harley Leiber - So why doesn't someone build a big factory or distribution center there and get easy access to a supply of willing and inexpensive workers?
Let me guess....
1
@Jonathan Because they'd have to shoulder their responsibility to pay taxes and rich business owners don't believe they should be obligated to do that.
5
Margaret Thatchers's famous saying, “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.” should be considered when discussing today's US economy. However, it would go like this: “The problem with deficit spending is that you eventually run out of your children's and grandchildren's money.”
37
@J K Griffin Don't worry the GOP is going to take grandma's money her grandchildren will have less as well.
1
After 8 years of Republicans refusing to work with Obama, a whole lot of needed infrastructure repair and construction was put off.
And as climate change worsens the storms, that adds even more.
We've been at full employment for a few years now (more jobs available than people looking for work).
There are bigger issues to tackle than making businessmen wealthy, and they are getting costlier and costlier the more we put them off:
climate change
opioid epidemic
healthcare system
infrastructure
What's more, clean energy will be the next trillion dollar industry -- it's a shame we're getting outdone by China and other countries when the future used to always be ours.
28
Last month, my 57 year old sister was laid off from her $80,000 a year job in the textile industry in Los Angeles. Improving efficiency and reducing redundancy where the reasons when the smallish company terminated eight employees. When she finds a equally paying job in three months, I will believe the economy has rebounded. One observation is that most of this job explosion is happening in male dominated fields like construction, oil and gas, manufacturing. Teachers, nurses, child care workers, other health care workers - professions dominated by females are continue to fight for salary increases, job stability, adequate state and local funding and the like. Wonder why male dominated industries are getting the economic windfall? Our testosterone in chief probably has a lot to do with it.
58
@Tanya - In these male-dominated industries, the businesses make valuable goods that can be sold at high prices to willing customers. The female-dominated industries, however are treated as an unwelcome expense - your medical premiums, your property tax bill, the invoice from your kid's day care place. People know these are necessary expenses, but would rather have a nice house and a new car.
1
Not sure you chose all good examples-Teachers and nurses have far more job stability than most employees, esp business executives paid much more. I readily concedes they are not paid well, but both usually have excellent benefits (e.g., retirement, parental leave and health compared to most other esp non-union jobs) and l;ets face it teachers only have an 8 month worth year-who else calls that “full time “ ?
To the Trump/Republican believers below:
This economic recovery did not start in January 2017. Google a chart of the U.S. unemployment rate since Bush left the economy in shambles in 2009 and unemployment was rocketing toward 10%. Later that year it started steadily decreasing during Obama's time to the point of 4.7% in his last month of December 2016. The reduction since then continues that straight line begun in 2009 by just 1 point--the tail end of the Obama recovery.
Trump is in the process of snuffing it all out now with knee-term actions that NO economist asked for, all price inflationary/raising interest rates: corporate tax cut, import tariffs, choking off Iranian oil from global supply, allowing young people to opt out of ACA contributions raising everyone else's health care cost (whether in ACA or not). These effects will be felt starting next year. Enjoy your last drink at this raucous party--you better hope the Democrats bring back their rational economics again.
49
The "job market" is not the answer to what ails OUR United States of America right now. It is time for a new model of sustainable business.
People need to stop waiting around for good jobs. Few will be available. Robber Barons are already trying to create robots and artificial intelligence to replace people in their insatiably greedy, morally/ethically bankrupt, socially unconscious world.
The time has come for average people to join hands and create true Employee Owned companies - with NO outside investors to siphon off the rewards of their hard work - that supply and support their communities.
Every single employee would share equitably in responsibility, deciding the goals of the company and profits. Everybody wins.
That is the sustainable business model of the future. NOW is the time to start.
20
@njglea And if the company fails to thrive or sustain a profit, will employees equitably sustain losses? And if an employee leaves to work with or start a competitor, will they equitably compensate their abandoned comrades for the value with which they escaped? If an employee fails to perform, will the remaining employees fire that one? And does that mean he loses some or all of his investment? There has to be investment, even if no outside investors. Profits are not assured, risks are many, tolerance among workers for risk vary. Consumers of what you supply have choices and may refuse to pay more for your product or service.
1
Mr. Prodehl it will be up to the people who start the company to make those decisions. There are many employee-owned companies that thrive and many guidelines available to start them.
It just takes people who want to work together to figure it out.
6
@njglea Great go for it, but I bet you don't have any capital, can't borrow any money, and probably don't have any skills to create value either. What you desire is what successful small businesses do, if you are capable start one.
The major problem with the sugar high is that there is not a lot more sugar left to dispense when the party inevitably ends.
While there are many stuck in low wage jobs with little ability to climb out, there are also those that squander the available time by not enhancing their skills. Change is inevitable, strap some armor on when the times are good-- don't follow the Republican squander now and struggle later policy. Yes grasshopper, today feels good but winter is approaching. It always is.
10
Economists generally agree that economic data lags current economic policy by about 18 months. The Trump tariffs are only a few months old, and some are just kicking in now. I would withhold judgment on any economic successes for another year to two years.
11
@JD - Good point. A major construction project in my area has been put on hold because of those tariffs. It would have meant a lot of jobs. I can't help but wonder how many times this is being repeated throughout the rest of the country.
2
Meanwhile, the stock market continues to plunge...
5
@Nicole
correction! They happen all the time.
Ponder me this. The premise of trickle down economics is that when everybody is working - supposedly due to people on the top hiring as a result of tax cuts - the people on the bottom are going to spend their newfound money on goods and services, thus increasing federal tax revenue and essentially wiping out or reducing the annual deficit.
It occurs to me that with the country at full employment - and then some - that tax revenue would have increased enough to tame the deficit, yet that's not at all the case. Can we be living through another example that the theory simply doesn't work and that the GOP are still holding on to a flawed theory?
24
@Marc Jordan
It was Obama who said there was no "magic wand" and that jobs were "not coming back". But alas, here we are only two years later, and jobs have come back. Not everything is perfect but the power of new ideas and the will to see it through are powerful catalysts for change. #MAGA.
3
Obama said that those jobs in the coal fields and certain manufacturing jobs weren’t coming back, not all jobs as you try to imply.
5
@Jim - What new ideas? Name three of them.
So far all we have is tariff's which are raising the costs of goods.
6
Yes, the economy is doing so well that I've now been able to increase my hours at my 2nd job to compensate for that 2% raise I got at my full-time job which was immediately offset by all the years I didn't get a raise, my skyrocketing healthcare premiums, inflation, etc. That's to say nothing of the 10 year old, 200K mile car I'm nursing along because I can't afford to replace it.
Of course my earnings are nowhere near what I was making prior to the recession; at this rate I'll need to live into my 130s to get back to that level.
83
I can't help but keep wondering: 1) in what is increasingly a 'gig economy,' whether the unemployment numbers aren't as revelatory as they once were in terms of indicating whether our economy is really as ostensibly strong as one would like to think; 2) whether the books are cooked when it comes to employment figures (this is the Trump Administration, after all, and his minions do his bidding).
21
The so-called great economy consists of well-paid white males in real estate “development”, banking, building design, trucking and construction trades, throwing up big box stores, warehouses and strip malls for low-pay, part time, zero benefit retail and warehouse jobs transporting and selling junk that isn’t made here in the United States.
This culture of “I got mine, forget you” needs to change starting November 6.
78
@An American Moment You do realize that if there were more higher wage jobs, this would lead to more higher priced products which would lead to greater incentive for lower cost imports to substitute for them. That or just higher prices themselves lead to lower demand for the higher cost goods resulting in no need for the higher priced wage jobs. Say instead of goods, we consider services, after all, imported burgers don't work. Higher wages in the service sector will lead to higher prices for services or a cessation of offering the service. Alternatively, businesses will seek to deploy technology that allows them to function with fewer higher paid workers; think kiosk ordering and automated vending at fast food joints. This will allow attractive pricing, again customers may be unwilling to pay more just to help out, if there is a choice. So, let's take away choice.
1
Really, prime working age is 25 to 54? This is what you call figures never lie but liars sure do figure. If you count in younger workerrs (those from 16, who drop out of school, through 24) and those who have to work till at least 66 & 4 months (the current SS age for full benefits), then these stats don't look so good. And given that Social Security retirement is not enough to live on, most people over 66 & 4 months, unless cushioned with pensions or enough savings to last till death (now creeping into 90's)....I'm sure the math is obvious. Prime working age is, even ignoring drop-outs, 18 to 66 and 4 months. Btw, the photo of the laborers literally breaking their backs nailing underlayment demostrates why in certain industries, productive employment begins to die out when you hit 40.
12
Economy and job market will collapse if Democrats regain either House of Congress.
@Richard really?
4
@Richard: Please explain your rational behind your statement.
5
@Phil Wagner Private sector will slam on the brakes in anticipation of expensive regulation, increased government spending and higher taxes that inevitably accompany any Democratic influence in the Federal government. At best, a Democratic-controlled House will play to its base of progressive mobs with endless, pointless investigations and introduction of legislation that will never get past the Senate or White House.
2
Whose job market? No one I know agrees with these rosy reports. Wages and a ajar sites have been stagnant for decades. My company is 2/3 H1B Visa workers. People over 50 can't even get interviews. People are working multiple minimum wage jobs without benefits. There is no job market in America. There is only greed of the 1%.
And why is it that I know plenty of American citizens in the construction industry who are unable to find work, yet I see dozens of illegal migrant workers lined up at the gas station early every morning waiting to be picked up by construction and moving companies?
31
@Humble Beast Yes and if they were deported citizens could get those jobs.
@vulcanalex
TBH, the illegals wouldn't be here if the corporations and businesses did not hire them illegally, and if landlords weren't renting to them illegally. Don't blame the migrants for what conservative business practices and lack of government oversight have done to this country. Furthermore, my company's entire production and customer service is offshored to India. And my office is filled with Chinese and Indian visa tech workers, permanent "contract" employees. There are plenty of American tech workers to fill those jobs. Corporations just don't want to hire permanent positions or pay benefits and living-wage salaries.
Numbers are, again, pathetic. Those are good numbers only for a country whose sole objective is to survive, not for a country whose main objective is to achieve the "American Dream" -- the doctrine which states the American people should always have the highest life quality on Earth.
And there's more: most of this growth is happening through vegetative growth and discard of the older population. Soon, these will begin squeezing the profit rates -- at a pathetic 3.1% growth only. The American economy is showing signs of premature senescence, progeria.
6
@VK Your idea of the "American dream" is not consistent with mine. It has nothing to do with the highest standard of living, that only happened recently. It has to do with freedom, the rule of law, and opportunity. Surely you might know that wealthy people in Europe lived way better than immigrants in the US before say WWII.
@vulcanalex I feel I am politically pretty far apart from you on most things but I agree with you on this one. @VK I think you have misrepresented this--most Americans are not concerned with having the highest standard of living on the planet. Most are concerned with opportunity.
1
What these numbers say to me, an over-60 active job seeker, is that it is high time we begin enforcing our anti-age discrimination laws. I know many highly qualified seniors in good health who are un- or underemployed despite active job searching and a willingness to take lower paying jobs. We have medical coverage without employer plans. We are highly experienced and know how to come to work on time. Yet 40% of us over 55 are unemployed (Bur.Labor.Stat., bls.com) and many others are underemployed. If we retired early we do not count in standard unemployment numbers.
What can be done? Simple. Require employers of >50 people to keep and report data on who applies and who is interviewed and who is hired by age, as is done for race and gender. If there is a pattern of hiring young workers over old, the numbers will show it, whether caused by e-screening algorithms or by biases of younger interviewers. Without numbers the law-breaking is hidden.
Put our longest-term, often best workers back to work if they so choose. Surviving on SS and Medicare alone ain't much fun.
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@Old Ben
Excellent suggestion for identifying age discrimination
1
Growth? You've got to be lying. I was "let go" in 2008 and it was purely ageism. Spectacularly good quarterly reviews meant nothing to the "bosses". Houston is a cheap dump. When I was there in the '80s they were giving away 6 month's free rent if one would just sign on the dotted line. Now it's the same thing: give it up to the developers. The planet and resources for us Kapitalists is unlimited! I and my family have ours. Sorry (not) about you and yours...
17
If you vote for Trump based on these economic numbers...you are selling your soul, because you are still left with a racist demagogue as your President...just a reminder a certain leader also had good economic numbers in the 1930's.
22
@doug mac donald Hitler was actually not very good for the German economy, he was forced to start the war earlier then he wanted because the economy was on the verge of collapse. It was only the systemic looting of Europe that sustained the German economy.
2
@doug mac donald Since the president is not on the ballot, nobody can vote for him. Now I want most of his policies, so I vote for federal candidates that will vote for them, not against them. It has nothing to do personally with the president, or at least it should not.
Republicans have been manipulating the job market since Reagan was in office. Republicans business owners out-pace Democrats about 25%. They manipulated it downward in 2008 when it was convenient for them to dump older workers and now that they have the President of their dreams, they are finally hiring, but they are still not offering the kind of wages needed to survive.
Republicans are either huge corporate entities in the military industrial complex, major retailers like Walmart, corporate healthcare (like DaVita Dialysis who is pillaging Medicare) or real estate developers or the sale of or investment in real estate (many are landlords like Trump) and lastly, small business, in food and retail.
Democrats tend to go into green industries, social services, healthcare, and are not out to gouge their fellow man but help him with great healthcare, fair housing and clean food.
Democrats don't manipulate the market like Republican investors who gave the hoi polloi the idea they could be rich too if they buy an overpriced house and have a retirement fund they could gamble with. It's called a BOOM and BUST economy. It's the Republican Way and they profit from both. So, today, BOOM.....tomorrow....????
5
What a joke. All the IT jobs are going to H1-B visa holders and overseas to India. Don't grow old in IT. You will be in the unemployment line.
13
Only government meddling can screw this thing up.
@Pilot - Like Trump's tariffs?
1
If you're a millionaire or a billionaire, things are going great and they're only getting better. If you're part of the dwindling middle class, you're living paycheck to paycheck while just barely staying ahead of rising housing costs, insurance premiums, and a mountain of student debt. 1969? Feels more like 1928 or 2007 to me.
16
Great explanation by Neil Irwin. I'll add that back in the mid-'90's in the Clinton years in that great economy that had turned around, execs were complaining that they couldn't find labor and they had to pay higher salaries.
I think that a lot of current inflation projection is tainted by the horrible inflation that we experienced during the Carter and early Reagan years. A healthy dose of high interest brought it down. It was much easier to deal with than the crash of 2008, the solution of which involved 0% interest rates, or thereabouts... heck, even negative interest rates in Europe. It fueled this recovery.
The late seventies-early eighties inflation is a bad memory. Then the 20% rates put the end to inflationary expectations. Credit began to open up again, but there was a lot of unemployment before the turnaround.
I think the Fed has vivid memories of that time, so it carefully inches up the interest rate. Trump complains about that, trump, a man who has been through six bankruptcies, and trump's followers are poorly educated. We don't want runaway inflation. We control it early on.
So far we haven't heard complaints from businesses about high salaries in this economy. We're going to have to see pay go up so that workers can support a higher inflation. That could lead to very edgy times. Trump and his trump party (formerly Republican) just dumped a bunch of money into this economy to support trump's ego. We'll see how it goes.
1
The raw unemployment, wage, and interest numbers are useless without interpretation.
It is well established that the most common statistic for unemployment ignores people who have quit looking for work. The 2008 recession dumped a huge number of well paid blue collar workers from the workforce who consider it demeaning or not worth their while to take minimum wage jobs. Without considering the numbers behind such factors the fundamental number itself is useless.
Second, wage numbers lie without analysis. What exactly is a broad average of 3.1%? It is openly stated in many articles that the corporate tax cut windfall has gone mainly into stock buybacks, dividend payments and not worker salaries. But how about corporate salaries? Some simple arithmetic shows that a hefty wage increase of for the top 10% of wage earners has a vastly outsized effect on "averages" as usually calculated since that increase is for an already bloated wage. It is hard to believe that executives and managers would find it difficult to keep from dipping into the windfall to embellish their own salaries while ignoring those of the workers. Analysis is required!
Finally, low interest rates have promoted stock buybacks, not investment. Sure corporations love the stock price increases. But the Fed needs modest interest rates that can be lowered when the next recession hits. Some experts predict 2019; roughly every 10 years and we are due.
11
This giddiness about the economy doesn't at all comport with my reality.
Beyond the 18-54 cohort that is used in the full employment computation, I am vigorous and in far better shape than most Americans of any age. Truly, I have extraordinary training along with a current law and real estate broker's licenses.
The only jobs I can find are barely above minimum wage in call centers. We have a grossly inefficient labor market, making it practically impossible for me and my ilk to match-up with suitable employment.
These employment stats need to be updated to include the permanently discouraged and the frustrated that are on the fringes or considered beyond the outer limits.
Put teeth into enforcement of equal opportunity laws. Come down hard on age discrimination and you'll suddenly see hordes of capable seniors seeking employment and finding it.
74
@Zen Totally agree. On all points.
The upper end of the “prime working age” needs to be pushed up, a lot, from 54 as our economy has shifted away from manufacturing to desk work, general health of people over the age of 50 has improved, and lifespan is much longer than ever.
Hiring is still done as if death and disease inevitably hit every worker and that happens at age 60.
Employers could find skill, experience and dependability, all traits they say they want, in older workers.
And still they continue to suck up to young (read: cheap!) workers who keep breaking their hearts as the younger cohort members are looking for their next job before they set up their desks.
12
@Zen You must not live is say south west florida, or even where I live either. Otherwise great points.
Am I right that your current president is both against immigration and against exporting jobs and production to other countries? In that case he'll choke this economic hightide.
The effect is expected to be inflation and raising interests. Bad for the huge national debt, good for banks, bad for investments in production, good for retirement savings, but risky for many of us if it is not quickly stabilized.
7
Many of these newly employed (or re-employed) workers will come off food stamps. Another win for President Trump!!
1
@whoiskevinjones Looking at the SNAP statistics (aka food stamps), the rolls have barely moved since the Obama days. They are down a little, but one would have expected them to be down dramatically.
Sorry to burst your bubble.
4
What I take away from all this is: The Republican Party will happily hold the economy hostage is there is a Democrat in the White House. Imagine what the economy would have been like 4 years ago if the GOP allowed the deficits Trump is creating. Lets not forget the COLA this year was 2.8% If all prices are increasing by 2.8% 3.5% growth really isn't that impressive. Is it.
24
Jaundiced eyes here. All this good news is meaningless if you are part of the group that cannot find jobs because of your age, handicaps, years of experience, or inability to move to where the jobs are. Temporary jobs are not worth moving for no matter what the employer or recruiter says. Temporary jobs provide no security at all.
Employers are advertising jobs at entry level that require skills which can take more than a few years to acquire. They complain that they can't find anyone to do the work. But they don't make applying online easy and they don't ask the right questions. They want purple squirrels and we are not purple squirrels. It never enters their minds that if we know how to learn and have most of the skills they want we are a good fit. It's easier to complain that there's no one out there.
Then there is the bias against workers over the age of 45 or 50. Imagine, if you aren't yet at that age, what it feels like to have a good set of skills only to be told that you're worthless. Worse than that, you may not be able to pick up a minimum wage job.
This country is creating poverty by allowing companies to outsource when there are people here who can do the job. It's also creating poverty when it cuts taxes and then cuts programs that help people stay afloat in rough economic times. Then again, never underestimate the hatred the uber monied feel when they have to pay taxes to the country they exploit.
101
As Neil Irwin points out here, most companies have not directed the tax savings into increased capex, but opting for share repurchases. But this will need to change in order to sustain the economic growth. In the midst of great economic news, productivity gains per worker have been weak during most of the current expansion. If individual workers don’t produce more, it is difficult for employers to justify pay increases that exceed price increases. In order to improve productivity, companies will need to move from adding more workers to investing in productivity-improving technology, which should continue the growth once the Keynesian sugar high wears off. If Congress does go Democratic, hopefully they will consider this before increasing the corporate tax rate to 25%.
4
@Integra Casey - When shares are repurchased, the money doesn't disappear into thin air. Someone receives it, and can either invest it or spend it.
The wealthy Apple shareholder, who's spending $70K to put a new roof on his house, what is he doing?
1
If we want to see wages increase then the federal government needs to be the trail blazer here and restore civil servants COLA to match inflation. The Private sector increases and freezes tend to take the lead from the federal or public sector.
I recall when Obama capitulated to a GOP demanded federal pay cola freeze the private sector immediately followed.
This freeze lasted 3 years and when it ended the increases were 1% then upped to 1.9% for federal employees. I noticed that my husbands private sector work place followed those federal numbers exactly.
It was almost an excuse to claim hard times as well and freeze people’s pay.
26
nope. not going to bother reading this. unemployment rate is not the end all be all of how our economy is doing. especially if we have 100% employment but kp one can afford rent, food, and savings.
52
@Deborah This was an interesting analysis. By not reading it, you have cast your lot with the millions of Americans who already "know" everything. Being open to information and being able to critically evaluate it is one requisite of informed citizenship.
1
@Margareta Braveheart That might be true, but when the articles coming out are blatantly contradicting what your eyes are seeing, it is very difficult to believe that the person spewing the contradiction isn't full of garbage and dismiss their words accordingly.
7
@Deborah - About 20% of US households have an income over $100K. That's about 23 million households.
Nobody? I don't think so.
If I buy a buy a BMW with borrowed money, am I rich ? This economy is all propped up by borrowed money and repatriation of offshore money by big corporations.
Economy is good now, but the bills will be paid by your children.
119
@Sujay - Well, somebody must be rich, because they're loaning you the money!
As you make the payments, those rich people will have a nice stream of income.
@Sujay If I buy a Camry for cash am I rich? Not really I just am responsible, thrifty, and somewhat lucky.
The job market will continue doing fine if Republicans hold on next Tuesday. Democrats are promising tax and spend policies that will suck capital out of companies and cripple companies' abilities to expand and create jobs.
2
@Burton No way democrats can raise taxes as long as the GOP holds the senate and until the end of Trump's term (at the least). This is unwarranted fearmongering. BTW, tax cuts are just another form of spending.
22
@Burton Really? Go back and take a closer look at what the GOP has done the past two years. And the stats look good, but what kind of jobs are available? Entry level and minimum wage. All well and good, but the jobs on the next step up are generally not there.
And what of character? By elected officials?
Yes, that matters. I cannot support a party and a leader who spews hate, sows divisesiveness and drags the country into authoritarianism. Even if it looks as though it did something to provide $9.00 an hour jobs.
I’d say the same if the “other party” was in office.
6
As usual. The Times has to add a negative disclaimer.... TO LITERALLY EVERY ARTICLE - you guys are really becoming Debbie downers...
1
Pelosi will kill any goose that lays a golden egg.
The Democrats own our current healthcare system yet hang it around the necks of the GOP.
The Democrats will not accept accountability for our rotten healthcare or our future economy regardless of their failures.
3
@Charlie, Guess I am missing something?
How is healthcare only a Democrat responsibility? Yes, Obama and the Democrats passed the ACA without a single vote from Republicans who then employed every tactic to make the ACA fail. In my state medicaid was cut and any attempt to offer exchanges was voted down. Republicans promised a better program at lower costs and when they gained power we found out that the smartest guys in the room had no program to offer! Same goes for the economy. Wasn't it the Bush Administration when the real estate debacle occurred in 2008-09? Banks were loaning money to rocks and then Fox and Republicans said all the blame fell on the consumer! The US will only work if the two parties work together. Neither are smart enough to pass programs without considering the concerns of the other party.
32
@EDH
Actually, the only thing Obama was able to achieve legislatively was getting the Affordable Care Act passed; and you observe that this happened in his first two years without any vote from the Republicans. Sadly, Obama tried to work with the Republicans but they were the party of "no" and wouldn't give the President his due.
In retrospect, he was too shy and should have seized the opportunity and done more in his first two years when he had a chance.
4
Don't worry about inflation. You have the consumers spending every last dime of their low wages already, so if prices rise that will only mean necessarily lower consumption. There are plenty of workers but most of them know that employers are not offering anything worth their time. The unemployment rate doesn't take into account how many people could work but won't because wages are too low and employers are generally jerks who require you to be a kind of brainwashed minion.
I am glad your allowing comments though. The Times general does this kind of propaganda piece for the masters and then doesn't allow refutation of what is obviously business fluff. Your terminology is very much that of a cheerleader and we know how dumb most cheerleaders are. You go ahead and celebrate the jobs numbers if you want, but the reality is that employed or not, most people are going backwards. But not the 1% and their cheerleaders.
The GOP keeps harping about what great economic times these are but the reality for most is not that. The only question that remains is how will you blame it on Democrats when the next downturn comes and will the people once again be stupid enough to believe the GOP's characterization of the issues? The destruction of facts and education by the GOP will aide you in that propaganda effort.
104
@Chris -- They baled a little more hay for us this year, but the milking has been rough and the slaughterhouse is nearing capacity.
The job market is Not hiring for those over 45 with a college degree. These folks can’t get an interview let alone a job
Verizon just offered 40,000 people a retirement package and most of them are 20 years too young retirement. They are outsourcing their IT to India
They got their giant tax break and they used it to accelerate lay-offs and retirement
202
@Deirdre
I do not know about the breakdown by age group, and it has always been more problematic for older workers to find a good new job when they lose the one the had, but the current unemployment rate for college grads over 25 is 2.0%. That does not sound like it is too difficult for them to find jobs.
2
@luxembourg
25 is not 40. Big difference.
16
@Deirdre And GM just announced it’ll offer exit packages to 80,000 - EIGHTY THOUSAND - workers. And those are largely office workers. Most of them also are likely nowhere near our conventional “retirement” age. Where will they go? What will they do?
21
Too little discussion on those who have dropped out fo the work force. Wages are an issue, but the equation is a binomial-ie wages AND government benefits, esp “disability” benefits. I’m hardly a Republican but visiting the SS office to sign up for Medicare was a revelation- there were obviously a large compliment of very robust (though perhaps drug abusing !) 45 year folks trying to get on the wagon. I think what this is all showing is we are very finely balanced right now in terms fo incentives to work. Yes we must raise wages, but at the same time we have to be very careful about moral hazard about making NOT working too attractive. Consider : Medicaid in some states is better than Obamacare in others, not possibel to live on a SS check in Manhattan, but quite doable in WV if sober...workforce participation is overlooked in this and most discussions of “unemployment” -
3
@John Whitc You are very confused. "Obamacare" is not an insurance program, its an exchange so it cannot be compared to Medicaid.
6
Hm, so Irwin says limiting immigration will tighten labor supply and lead to higher wages. I thought supply and demand principles stopped working for immigrants. So a huge supply of low-skilled immigrants DOES depress wages? Who woulda thunk?
6
If all this is true, why then is the housing market so bad?
15
@Mgaudet
What do you mean by bad? Bad for buyers is good for sellers and the other way around.
High prices for houses (both rent and buying) are in fact an inefficiëncy in the economy, because the consumer price for living is raised and eats a larger part from the private hosehold budget.
4
@matteoThe housing building industry is down
Full employment at the expense of our planet. Great goals. The only jobs created by Trump are toxic coal jobs . The coal ash it produces is filling up our landfills and poisoning our water supplies. The NYT's recently had an article that said Wallstreet sees signs of a major Trump recession soon. Since 1945 there has been a major recession with every Republican president since then . When you give so much to the rich and corporations they only thrive. Even though there are more jobs the wage growth for employees is not growing the CEO's and share holders only do well with Republicans.
14
I am dismayed that the article makes no mention of the ballooning deficits and national debt as the true cost of these good jobs numbers.
In boon times, we should be cutting the deficit but we see Trillion dollar plus shortfalls as far as the eye can see.
As we have already heard from the congressional leadership, that situation threatens our social safety programs which they deem is what needs to be cut.
All the while, the already wealthy and large corporations are raking it in.
I believe the ship will hit the sand hard early next year when millions of people actually see their real tax bills become due and realize they owe money, lots of money.
Money that is usually spent by families to pay down debt, pay for college and or make home improvements.
That money will be out of the economy, hurt consumerism and have a negative effect.
Those that got paycheck increases will have adjusted for it by then and start to see their negligible increases lost in rising prices from the tariffs, healthcare and borrowing.
Back to square one and a runaway debt to boot!
Have fun everybody, for now.
84
But what about wages - and ability for people to pay for basic needs like housing, food, medical care/insurance?
Not all jobs equally allow people to pay for living even modestly in this country - and economic health can only truly be measured by citizens' ability to provide for basic needs (the kinds of things that, say, lower infant mortality rates and other indicators of poverty). These jobs reports don't account for wage rates and so are not good indicators of how the economy is working. (it's like looking at the frosting on the cake and not realizing the cake inside is made of garbage glued together, and made to look pretty on the outside, with frosting)
41
Difficult for me to understand the US could have inflationary pressure when so much of what we have or want is wholly unnecessary. Most vehicles, houses and hobbies are baggage. Happy baggage for sure. Only medical costs are truly skyrocketing, everything else is cheaper than it should be.
2
I was hoping to see an analysis of that 3.1 increase in salary. Averages are mildly useful, but do not tell the whole story as they can be influenced by certain industries, age/experience/level, demographic groups, geographical areas.
24
@child of babe
Yes, and as indicated by the writers below who have not had increases, and who have had no luck in finding adequately paid jobs, the low employment rate and cited pay increase mock their efforts.
Inflation is set to take off: the scariest scenario is that it becomes stagflation, with costs increasing and salaries flat. The efforts of the FED to ameliorate the effects of inflation stimuli are about the only protection for those with low or fixed incomes.
10
One more rate hike and tariff should do it, say Late January.
4
The notion that "higher pay" is coaxing more workers into the economy is flawed. More likely businesses are lowering their hiring standards as they "scrape the bottom of the barrel" and are raising wages in an attempt to prevent poaching of their more productive workers.
A need for higher pay is not what keeps people out of the workforce.
19
@OneView - Maybe not everyone, but lots of folks. Working parents, for instance, have to be able to earn enough to pay for childcare while they are at work - and even a $15/hour mininum wage does not, after taxes, do that. White collar workers are another, for whom it does not make sense to work at a low paying job where they don't get health insuarance coverage and does not enable them to pay basic cost of living.
7
Really? I have barely seen any increase in my pay in nearly 10 years and any increase has been far outstripped by inflation. Insurance premiums keep skyrocketing, too. Maybe the wealthy are doing great but most of the rest of us? Not so much.
241
@Mark
I'm a Mark in a different state, and am experiencing the same thing. Rent, insurance and food costs consistently increasing, wages not really keeping up with it. I just find new things to cut from my budget to stay afloat.
64
@Mark - Another Mark, in NY, here too. Have given up idea of private college for the kid. Contribution to employer sponsored family health insurance costs $1,800/month (so $21,000/year!) more than monthly cost of mortgage on our home. We live in constant fear of being laid off and having to choose between paying for health insurance or the mortgage. Stayed employed by agreeing to employer reducing my salary by 30%. Count me employed and barely keeping my bills paid. This jobs indicator in NO WAY captures reality of my existance.
111
@Mark
Not sure what industry you all are in, but employers will try to keep your pay low if they can get away with it. There is still a lot of cost pressure on US companies. You really need to move from job to job now in order to see your salary go up faster than inflation. If you don't want to move or your skills are in a mature industry, plan on stagnant wages.
10
Thank goodness ,trump is his own worst enemy.If he could put a muzzle on his mouth the Democrats would be sitting home than voting this coming tuesday.He's a beast that can't stop gloating. Those of us that will cast a vote against him is only because we just can't stand him. Imagine if he just shut up and let the economy do the talking, he would be a two term President, as it is he just might lose the Congress tuesday.
18
@Joe BlowIt is ever so much more than his big mouth that is a problem and ever so much more than the economy -- or at least it should be. People should not cherry pick this one positive in exchange for all the rest that has been so wrong with this administration.
8
Once again an article by a conservative economics reporter that doesn't mention any changes in overall demand for goods and services. As an ordinary citizen I have to rely on economics reporters and other economic experts for such basic information. I understand that there can be stagflation, but the more basic form of inflation involves an endless series of supply problems: items back-ordered, premiums demanded for priority delivery, and lines of people waiting in stores that feature empty shelves. Again as an ordinary citizen I would question that our economy is generating adequate demand for goods and services. Of course this might require a less skewed distribution of profits...
As many experts point out, a healthy expansion over the long run requires either an infusion of new workers or an increase in productivity. I doubt that we're going to be getting lots of new workers in the next decade at least, so perhaps we especially need higher productivity. However, Irwin's macroeconomics arguments don't seem to take into account any time lags. Again from what I have read, it seems that there is a delay between investing in new methods of production and actual improvements in productivity. This goes doubly for retraining workers in any new technology.
12
@Grindelwald
I was thinking the same thing. Thanks!
1
Technically I'm employed. Oh, it doesn't pay me enough to live on but I'm employed. But despite the supposed crunch for employers I'm getting nowhere when I apply for new positions. Everyone wants a 25 year old with 15 years experience for $15/hour. I'm over 40 and recently got screened out because of my college GPA. So gratifying to discover that years of experience and hard skills matter less than the grade I got on a midterm.
Workers aren't sitting on the sidelines, they've been tossed there by unrealistic expectations from recruiters and companies.
205
I'm 61 in a supposed high demand field, downsized twice this year, and yet company HR departments taking literally months to make a hiring decision. When my unemployment benefits run out at end of year, I will have no income and have to start dipping into the money I assiduously saved for retirement. Even employed, my salary nowhere near kept up with expenses like insurance and rent, which goes up well over inflation every year.
149
@g- wow- employers are actually looking at york college transcript individual grades ? Unless it took you >4 years to graduate, raising the “why” question, dont see the point of that 15-20 years later. They dont even do that when they are interviewing for Deans, college presidents, US presidents, etc.!! Dont see the point in thsi at all. -just crazy .
10
@g Some even ask for your SAT scores! Or they are thrilled to have your resume but would you mind coming into their offices to take some aptitude tests and then have a 15 minute discussion with them about what you're best suited for at their company. This after you've filled out the impossible online application, answered questions that are on the resume they say they scan, and forced you to sign up for the privilege of receiving their emails touting their successes.
Then there was the interview with Home Depot, a minimum wage job where I was told I was late when I wasn't and asked why I wanted to work there. I told them I was on time and that they were late. I said that I wanted to work there in order to pay my bills. I was told they wanted me to come back for a second interview. Nope, not after I'm accused of being late when I wasn't. And companies wonder why employees or potential hires have an attitude? This is why.
As someone born in 1958 I have no memory of ever being desired on the job market. We were treated like cattle to be herded to the slaughter. There's no shortage of people willing to work. There's a shortage of employers willing to hire, train, pay, and treat employees decently.
39
It will last until the Democrats are back in power.
5
@M
Well you are right and that is too bad for all of us.
We are doing so well because the tax cuts for the wealthy have BORROWED from the FUTURE of everyone except those very wealthy people and corporations. I love spending borrowed money just like anyone else and it feels really good until you have to pay it back. OR maybe we don't every have to pay any of the government debt back? Think about it. We need the DEMS to get the wealthy to pay some taxes.
86
@M
Really? You might want to look at the state of the economy after Clinton and Obama: excellent. Compare that with the conditions at the end of Reagan's, Bush Sr.'s and Bush Jr.'s terms: disastrous. The Republicans have a long history of wrecking things so that their 1% supporters can reap grand rewards while the rest of us get screwed.
145
@M: Employers want to hire intelligent people. This means that you have to be able to think.
2