Very insightful, and generally speaking it's worthwhile to read an opinion column that doesn't cast Trump as the be-all, end-all cornerstone of a candidate's hopes in his region or metropolitan center.
Beware, though, of taking that departure too far, because Trump has appeal wherever he goes. Why?
Because he's a master showman! He can read an audience - almost any audience - and play to it almost instantly. He is the Duke or the Dauphin to any Huckleberry. He can con you into forgetting about the crop when he buys your farm. He'll convince you that there's a pea under one of those shells no matter what your senses have told you! (And the whole time, the key is that you think you can't be conned by anybody*!)
Is this news to you? Of course not. It's not even news to you when you settle into your easy chair at home or your seat pad at the stadium as the rally begins. Trump starts out with a joke (of course) and you laugh even if it's not funny to you. That's courtesy. But later on, anything he wants to be funny is... funny.
And as time wears on, he gets smarter an smarter! Eventually he knows everything, and everyone knows that a man who can run a skating rink can surely run a country!
You might stop, briefly, to scratch your head about the similarities between empty rental properties on the Hudson and gum shoes for Moscow State Police, but...
Wait! He's already talking about something else! What did I miss? What did I miss?
2
I get the Abbott thing, but -- TED CRUZ? I mean, come on. That guy's the worst.
7
Democratic voters are 'thwarted' at every turn by Republicans.
Montana & Georgia voter suppression are but TWO examples.
Even so Democrats CAN and will WIN landslides if we turn out in droves. The most consequential Mid-Term EVER is at hand. All Democrats & anti-Trump old time moderate Republicans are Needed NOW in the Next '3' weeks to GO get out the VOTERS!
2
There is a different way in which elections are not all about Trump.
Let's face it. Trump is possibly the worst president we have ever had. How then did he get elected?
It was partly because his opponent, Hillary Clinton, decided to play dirty, perhaps even dirtier than Trump.
It was Clinton who put sexual affairs front and center, with the visibility of Gloria Allred in her campaign and accusations regarding the access Holllywood tapes. But her own husband Bill had women who had made lurid accusations against him, making Clinton appear hypocritical.
And the working class is less concerned about the sexual affairs of politicians than about their own survival.
Hillary Clinton had pushed for universal health care decades ago, but seemed to be captured by the health insurance industry, which still profits by denying coverage to people who fall through the cracks. With Bernie Sanders, Hillary argued AGAINST universal health care.
Now the Democrats march further in directions which do not benefit the working poor.
Yes, your boss might make a sexual joke at your expense. But that hurts far worse than a cancer diagnosis delivered too late because your insurance did not pay for cancer screenings.
Tearing down statues of Robert E Lee does not provide jobs for the poor. False accusations which lead to the unjust destruction of men's lives do not provide health care for those who die early because they are poor.
The working poor have been abandoned by Democrats.
6
@Jake Wagner
"The working poor have been abandoned by Democrats."
They didn't mean to. That was a secondary effect of taking corporate donations. The Democrats thought they could have it both ways by occasionally throwing a bone to the workers.
Strangely enough the Republicans do have it both ways.
They get their corporate donations and also the votes from the working class, at least from the whites because the white workers Want to Believe what the Republicans sell: patriotism, protecting American jobs, a strong America, no taxes, small government, independence, freedom, flag waving, families, economic strength, free markets, no handouts, non-whites as undeserving moochers, and a general racism that only respects whites.
The corporations know everything the Republicans say is a lie to get votes. They know because they use the same programming to exploit their workers.
3
It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Trump is a con man and a liar. The same voters who are part of his cult & truly believe his lies like Democrats are "evil" and will destroy the country are the same ones who either ignore or easily dismiss the fact that the Trump organization criminally defrauded the IRS out of hundreds of millions of dollars while influencing the last GOP tax bill to allow real estate developers to game the system by avoiding even more taxes in the future. His son in-law pays no taxes on his millions of dollars in income from real estate while forcing low income people out of their homes in order to jack up the rents. In fact, Donald Trump & his entire grifting family are monetizing the White House as a giant cash register in order to make billion dollar sweetheart deals with other countries in exchange for favorable treatment (e.g. China, Russian, Saudi Arabia, Philippines, UAE, India, Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, etc. not including his Trump properties in which various governments purchase influence by spending big bucks there. The reason he has decimated the EPA is that billionaire oil friends have purchased influence including Koch Industries. His entire Middle East policy was purchased by Sheldon Adelson. So when Mr. Bruni says that geographic quirks influence election results, what he means is that millions of dollars spend on negative ads influence low information voters who vote by emotion, not based on facts & reason.
9
Realiry check: The deplorable Republican party from its feckless narcissist leader to its congressional toadies and evangelical delusional angry base has made the choice easy for an educated, financially successful, fiscally conservative- but socially progressive-minded independent like me for the first time: voting AGAINST every Republican all the way down the ticket. Unless a real third party emerges as an alternative, Democrats are the more sane choice.
13
Another side of the Abbott effect that I have seen in Texas is split tickets. Many republicans in my district see Abbott as a safe bet and are voting for — and donating to — democrats in local races. We are seeing that old adage “all politics is local” played out here in spades.
4
Turnout will determine whether Ds win the House and Senate.
Republicans, esp. conservative Republicans, vote in non-Presidential years in comparatively higher numbers, but this year, if 18-29s, minorities and women vote in percentages at least equal to or greater than they did in 2008, those voters will elect Democrats. Issues, polls and personalities will not be decisive this year. Trump is speaking to his base; the base always votes and they will vote this year.
I suggest we just vote and keep voting, whatever the analysis, hopes, and despairs of the uncertain future are.
4
Supposedly, the Hillary campaign had a "vaunted" ground game. It failed in key states. Cold calling voters doesn't work. I've done it. Better to knock on doors. You may reach many fewer people, but you get much better reactions. That said, it would be good to have at least one local in each pair knocking on doors.
As the article also illustrates, it's better to have a slate of candidates that energize the voters...give them a reason to go and vote for their favorite, but then help the others on the ballot.
But most of all, for liberals and progressives, and yes, moderates...remember that Trump is on the ballot. You can register your displeasure by
VOTING OUT ALL REPUBLICANS
13
I received my vote by mail ballot in the mail yesterday. So the democrats did not suppress my vote, or anybody else’s to my knowledge. It could be republicans too. Nobody knows who runs the county office. But why the county sends the ballots out so late when early voting began last monday in california is a mystery.
I so despise trump. I skip past the trump coverage in the news. I dont want to see his face and i cant stand his voice. I despise his party as well. They appointed a rank partisan to the supreme court-one of themselves. It complicated a task that was routine for me in an earlier election-voting for appeals court judges. I never viewed them as political earlier and rejected anybody associated with republicans only selecting governor browns and davis’s appointees this time. Trump’s party has severely damaged my trust in the supreme court, which i viewed as non-political and impartial overall, earlier. I voted for democrats across the board. Gavin newsom, kevin de leon, and javier bacerra are a few names i remember. I picked democrats for the the house races as well. Trump is crazy and his party members are submissive. Even his advisors describe him as ‘deranged’. He must be checked. I also voted against the gop because i am strongly opposed to their tax cut for the top 1 percent who are mostly republican, and to the salt deduction limit which raises my taxes by a lot. The gop has undermined laws against climate change, affordable health care and is anti-immigrant
35
Given that turnouts for midterm elections are universally lower than presidential elections, contrary to conventional wisdom, midterms have never been about the President.
However, we have never had a president who campaigned without a counter candidate to balance the race.
Had Trump not campaigned since his election, it’s likely the Republicans could have remained in power based on the tax cuts and unemployment rate alone.
Campaigning as he has - without a Democratic challenger - likely will increase turnout of his supporters that otherwise may have stayed home.
I predict a “red splash” and Robert Mueller’s report landing with a thud in the dark closets of the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
12
The great majority of voters vote a straight ticket. Most go to the polls to back their party. Some go because of a local race that is competitive. Either way, they vote a straight ticket.
Lots of people will be motivated this year by their sentiment toward Trump. And that should bring a pretty good number to the polls-- opinions of Trump are pronounced to say the least. Based on Trump's low popularity rating, those opposed to him should have the better turnout.
Not many care very much about their Congressperson, and those who care about their Senator or Governor generally vote their party. There may be 20 or more candidates and lots more bond issues or propositions on the typical ballot. If anyone goes one by one voting their separate preferences, they will be at the polls a half hour longer than almost everybody else.
I tend to disagree with Mr. Bruni. Unlike him, I think it's mostly about Trump.
12
@michjas
You left out the 40+% of voters who don't have a party.
1
@michjas I am more apt to vote straight Democratic than ever before this year.
2
Daniel Patrick Moynihan famously said that 'all politics is local' and your column today is a reminder that talk of a 'blue wave' or a 'red grave' is premature and misleading.
While I am certain there will be some head-scratching results in a few weeks, most of the results will be explainable. Which means they are also somewhat predictable.
I predict we are going to be reminded that our country has lost its way. We are going to be reminded that phrases like 'the wisdom of the voter' are as hollow as an old tree because I believe, unfortunately, that the misery that arrived in 2016 is about to be effectively reinforced in 2018.
Those of us that hold out hope for something better are going to feel the ineffable horror they felt two years ago as they realize that it wasn't a fluke at all. This is who we are now.
39
@Lkf: Don't believe everything you think.
Dems must absolutely take zero for granted and count no chickens before they hatch - but this isn't the time for throwing cold water on them.
16
@Lkf
Just a correction: it was not Moynihan who said, 'All politics is local.' It was Tip O'Neill.
2
It's tribal. People will be pressing the button or pulling the level for a party not the candidate.
4
It's a bit difficult for foreigners to understand why the US media hangs on every word of Trump, Melania, Kushner et al. and turns out billions of words on impeachment, the midterms, confirmation hearings and all the rest when it is plain that Trump will survive, he will (if his health doesn't implode) be re-elected, the Democrats are a spent force, confused and confusing, and the only political constituency worthy of that name is the religiously besotted, xenophobic and ideologically driven right. Obama was a blip, and an ineffectual one at that given the forces mustered against him. A liberal, secular and globally oriented America is not in the cards. The hope for it died with the Roosevelt presidency.
1
My greatest fear is that the America my parents' generation fought for across Europe and the Pacific is gone and that a majority of voters actually prefer the kind of neo-fascism we see all over the world.
The bread and circus crowd at Trump rallies will cheer Kim and boo John McCain, laugh uproariously (again) at Christine Ford and forgive Donald anything, even using his public office for personal gain.
Now that the Greatest Generation is mostly gone, we revert to a Lord of the Flies social decay.
14
Forget Brett. How did Rick Scott make his fortune? Who were his victims? Repeat after me: "Health Care! Health Care! Health Care! Health Care! Health Care!"
8
Just this once, I have to say Donald Trump was completely correct about something - in this quote from the 2016 campaign:
"How can Ted Cruz be an evangelical Christian when he lies so much and is so dishonest?" asked Trump.
GO, GO BETO!!
7
It has never, been about Trump.
It has only been, about getting rid of the smug, condescending, elitists on both sides of the aisle.
The Republican voting base kicked out the good ole boyz and put Trump in. The never-Trump Republicans are leaving in droves and are being replaced by people responsive to the voters.
Sadly, the liberal Democrats of old can't do the same. Too bad, they are a pretty moderate and thoughtful bunch.
The radical progressive ideologues now control the party.
There is no hope of them being dislodged.
But, these left wing elitists are so sure that the voters are stupid - in fact - deplorable, that they don't even see it coming. They can't, see it coming.
They are going to get clobbered this fall.
3
But I have news for the president. It’s not all about him.
_______
Doesn't that work in reverse, too? If a Republican is defeated, why does it have to constitute a resounding defeat for Trump, a slap in his face by an outraged, aggrieved electorate?
2
As we learned from the Clinton-trump battle we really don't know until election day.
3
If you don't vote, or vote third party, or vote Republican, then you are complicit in Trumpism, with all the moral horrors it has come to represent.
2
No true American can continue to support the Republican Party which has lost its way under the control of a few wealthy owners that care nothing about democracy. Power and greed is all that matters to them as the GOP tramples upon the Constitution of the United States. Trump is a symbol of the disgrace of the Republican Party and Mitch McConnell is their ever-scheming henchman.
Get out the vote on November 6th against these Republican traitors. This is the most important election in modern US history.
2
Unusual for a lockstep leftwing Times columnist to suddenly say it's not all about Trump after we've been getting a daily paper packed with nothing else but that it's all about Trump. Can this be a hedging of the bets in anticipation of a red state victory come November? An attempt to save face when Republicans win by saying it is not all about Trump?
5
No, it's not all about Trump. It's also about our tax dollars being spent on the internment of thousands of migrant children in Texas. As soon as Dems take control of the House they should close down these camps, cancel the contracts of these private prisons millionaires and begin prosecutions of those reponsible for crimes against humanity.
4
You are forgetting the Republicans acts lile the willingness to defraud the voters in Georgia. This is one of the biggest threats to our Democrocy. They are emboldened by the R's base guaranteed support of liars and con man. The SoS running for gov in Georgia should be investigated and prosecuted for his malfeasance.
3
The Republican tactics include voter suppression, gerrymandering, election hacking, stacking the courts and fake news. Democrats are sending emails, making phone calls and ringing doorbells. This is like bringing a butterknife to a gunfight.
3
the sad fact is our voting laws are designed to block voters
4
While I have been critical of the Democratic establishment for it's do-nothing policies that have contributed to a Trump existence, I have also watched in dismay, the Trumpish trolls take over the asylum. Enough is enough. We need to put these racist no-nothings out of power. Hillary Clinton was not wrong in calling this subgroup of Trump supporters "deplorables". They are, and she should have articulated that better and never apologized for it. But leave it to the Democrats to allow the Republican trolls to define and drive the narrative, even if it is you own narrative. Hopefully the Democrats won't blow it this time.
3
Vote early, and vote blue.
7
It's not about Trump except when it's about "the degree to which Trump picks wise fights between now and Nov. 6, the extent to which he stages dumbfounding scenes like the one with Kanye West in the Oval Office on Thursday." Have you seen the crowds at MAGA Trump Rallies?? It's about Trump!! #REDWAVE
2
Funny how so many NYT readers, obsessed as they are with Trump vitriol, are unwilling to concede that the rest of the country has other issues in statewide races. Ironically, their own votes mean little or nothing, as races in hardcore blue states are predetermined and a referendum on nothing but the status quo.
2
For me; an excellent editorial. Thanks-
2
The horse race coverage of politics in this country is exhausting, uninspiring, and bad for democracy.
3
"Greg Abbott. He’s the Republican governor, he’s up for re-election, he doesn’t mess around, and his voters aren’t likely to be their voters. “If Abbott ultimately closes the election 20 points up, it’s sure to cost some down-ballot Democrats dearly,”
Oh...so the fix is already in? Silly me...to think I lived in a Democracy....
1
Considering the NYTimes 2016 Presidential predication was wrong up to a last minute, and how they completely missed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, I thought they'd get out of the election predication.
But no.
Now the NYTimes features a "Live Poll" and columnists who still write in authoritative tones about their interpretation of polls- offering their thoughts on how "the people" are feeling.
Forgive me if I just wait the month and find out myself.
2
Rick Scott belongs in jail for defrauding Medicare, not in the Senate.
5
The Democrats are so full of hope, but the polls do not seem to match that hope.
.
There is always that really uneasy feeling that the Democrats are going to get an ugly surprise on November 6.
.
Hope not.
.
But the Republicans have out-manoeuvred the Democrats so many times, and the Democrats keep making the same mistakes.
.
No. Don't have a good feeling about this, at all.
.
Three weeks to go.
3
As FL goes, one would hope "outside" Enviros should get something on the air pointing out that FL folk may need scuba gear to live in their homes...maybe the projections are wrong, but they well may be right, YET all the GOP wants to do is make sure we CAN't even discuss the problem. Essentially head in the sand, there is no problem. Vote for that?
I live in the TV zone that gets all the Denham v. Harder ads... and Denham is going the full GOP route, abortions (what "exemptions" would exits on abortions? It flips the restriction law reality...), fish &c. I would not run from Pelosi but put her image in Halloween drag to ridicule the GOP line...then humanize her image while pointing out as Speaker she worked to save the country from the great Recession and to give more Health Care,THEN bring in Ryan and Mitchel faces and spook them up while listing their "accomplishments". Who really scary?
The disaster that the top of the ticket can bring was evidenced in the terrible Brown campaign in the 90s that allowed the GOP to hold in CA for a decade (more). But Ms C is the more important take... and the C folks conspiracy excuse should get deep sixed now, before she runs in 20.
(finally, the GOPs have made the devil deal to hold T's voters. Those walk if a believable tale of an Ides of March coup for Pence next year comes out...NOW)
Have to start somewhere right? Take your body to vote on November 6th. Straight Dem ticket here. My guess is where Florida goes, the rest of the country goes. They are hurting right now...where is their governor?
1
Frank, the true Texas influencer and arbiter is Sid Miller, the Ag Secretary running for re-election. Sid’s 15 gallon hat and defender of all things BBQ is a powerful spit to turn in this election.
His new championing of a Sons of Johnny Reb vanity license plate has been kicking up dust devils. Luckily, his campaigns theme song Tumbling Tumbleweeds is sure to garner the nostalgia segment.
Ken Paxton, the AG under a cloud of indictments for fraud has his trial conviently after the election. The Texas constitution allows for convicted felons to hold elected office. They just can’t vote.
Lone Star lullabies and the sagas of the Alamo brigade, Tom DeLay, we hardly knew yah.
1
National democratic leadership is zero. There’s no strategy I can discern. If Gillum wins in Florida, it’s due to the hurricane which wiped out the red panhandle. There’s no communication I can see with either the black or Latino community in south Florida. I haven’t heard of any registration drives for Puero Ricans displaced and living in Orlando. I donated money in this campaign, but receive nothing but begging emails- nothing of substance.
2
Of course it's not all about Trump. It's all about Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Having played a key role in getting Trump selected President of the United States in 2016 without any negative consequences, Putin and his team Russian military intelligence aka GRU is likely bsck better, bigger and bolder to make more election mayhem in 2018 and beyond.
3
Listened to interview with Bob Francis, a.k.a. Beto 0 ROURKE--or is it the other way around? in which candidate could not answer the question of how Americans become richer by opening the borders, letting illegal immigrants in, entitled to full card of welfare benefits! Cong. Francis--excuse me Cong. 0 Rourke, recited the super achievers among "indocumentados" such 1 who earned a Ph.D.in chemistry, as if that were typical, and unconvincingly maintained that the presence of those who broke the law to get here r beneficial to the lives of ordinary American citizens. Bruni lives in a bubble as Beth Spaeth pointed out,convinced his views represent those of the majority of Americans, whereas the opposite is true.U. of N.C.whence he graduated, is , grosso modo, 80 percent white, and students come from privileged families. Diversity is a beau ideal that 1 gives only lip service to there.That's the milieu which Bruni most closely identifies with.My hope is that the liberation of the pastor from a Turkish prison will motivate evangelicals even more to cast their ballots for Republicans on election day!The pastor said a prayer for the president who got him released!Add to his release all the other Americans held in foreign prisons who are now free, and the president's philanthropy, his altruism has, in my view, earned him the sobriquet of "Sauveur!"
Frank...
Two years ago, maybe. But now, it's ALL about Trump - in the eyes of his beholders, and in the brains of the sensible detractors. It hurts. But that's it.
On Ossoff how convenient that all ballot records were erased under the direction of Brian Kemp so no recount could be made. He may have actually won. and now kemp is disenfranchizing Georgia voters and mainly people of color to enhance hie chances. Corrupt
2
If there were (subjunctive intended) even a breath of logical sanity in this society, there might be a Green wave, voting based upon the seemingly inexorable march of humanity toward extinction. Conversely, this investment in a blue wave is tantamount to reinforcement of the old adage: "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose." (piu si cambia, piu c'è lostessa cosa). If it is indeed "not all about Trump," then some awakened cognition toward the most pressing issue ever faced by postmodern society might well be in order.
1
The anger reflected in the most popular comments to this article and in a good portion of the democratic party may cause the defeat of the democrats in the upcoming election.
5
Frank writes: “Ask Jon Ossoff what happens when you become a cause that outsiders flock to.” He was referring to the Democratic nominee in a 2017 special House election in Georgia’s Sixth District. Despite enormous help from beyond the district and state, Ossoff lost, and was portrayed along the way as a darling of interlopers with no real understanding of, or investment in, that patch of suburban Atlanta.
The better question, Frank, is ask Georgia's Secretary of
State, Brian Kemp: How did Ossoff lose when polls right before the election showed him 5 points ahead? Anything to do with manipulation of electronic ballots, a long-term problem in Georgia's elections.
3
Amazing that the most blatant, brazen voter suppression campaign since the VRA went into effect gets nary a mention. Florida wouldn't even be a tossup if 1.5 million voters weren't being systematically disenfranchised. That's to say nothing of the obscenities in Georgia, Indiana, Texas, and elsewhere.
Andrew Gillum is the greatest gift that Sen. Bill Nelson could have hoped for. And America, for that matter. He is everything that Obama was hyped to be.
Frankly, as goes Florida, so goes the nation. If the Democratic Party can't retake this state, it has no chance of retaking America. Florida and Georgia are 52% and 53% non-Hispanic white, respectively. Literally all we need is to turn out our voters against blatantly racist, authoritarian rule. If we can't do that much...
3
“But you have to be careful,” he added. “Ask Jon Ossoff what happens when you become a cause that outsiders flock to.”
Given the vulnerability of Georgia's voting system and the lack of concern shown by their secretary of state Kemp,I think ANY election result in Georgia must have an enormous asterisk next to it.
8
Top-recommended commenter Gemli understandably laments that so many of our voters seem to have been fished out of the stew-pit. Are we alone?
If contrary to Trump's vaunted prejudices we are all equal, then it is reasonable to look at the experiences of other countries in managing their rabble. The Philosopher King and the Mandate of Heaven may provide fast temporary relief from the Curse of the Bell Curve (and catchy names for a fantasy novel or a rock band) but for how many successive generations do they succeed?
As a Main Street American I was taught to look for the flaws in top-down "expertocracies." Unfortunately as I age and begin to change hats, I realize that when viewed from the other side, these Utopias don't inspire much more optimism than the one we have. Is Lord Acton right to caution us implicitly against disenfranchising our least sophisticated stakeholders?
Environmentalists now want us to put our garbage in our freezers with our food, lest our landfills overwhelm us. Maybe we need to spend more time in conversations we regard as unpalatable.
If after two years of sickening Republican policies that are deregulating consumer and environmental protections, separating migrant children from their parents, rewarding corporations and the richest among us with unnecessary tax cuts, alienating our strongest allies, and placing partisan judges on the Supreme Court---if after all of this, Democrats don't feel energized enough to turn out in masses large enough to at least flip the House and possibly the Senate on Nov. 6th---then any hope for change before the 2020 presidential election is surely lost. Now is the time for Democrats to mobilize and GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!
4
An entire column on geographic particulars and not a single mention of Arizona.
Arizona has the BEST chance of flipping a senate seat from red to blue as Kirsten Sinema continues to lead within the margin of error Martha McSally.
Also, McSally's vacated House seat will be won by the Democrat as the national Republicans have realized and pulled their ad buys from that district.
Sinema's House seat, OTOH, will remain safely Democratic.
There is also a very real chance the Democrats in AZ will win back the state senate for the first time since 1993. The lower House is out of reach as it has been for 50 years.
Yet, we hear in the Gray Lady about Texas and Kansas.
2
Gee are we talking about the effect of the straight ticket? Hated by the libertarians and Republicans alike. Its those pesky party voters and not the individual voters getting in the way again. Frank and the NYT will do and say anything to tell the readers
that plank and party is meaningless until its not.
Im voting straight. I believe in my candidates and the party plank in my state. Go Blue! Note: because I listen to other parties, their candidates and read their party planks I never have and never will vote libertarian or republican.
1
On the peoples' tab, President Trump holds several 2020 re-election rallies every week in flyover country. He rants, he raves dementedly against everyone but his loyalists in red MAGA caps. Dog whistles galore. We hope his GOP bad-apple picks (like the ones who are running for Senator, Governor and House in this state) will be defeated in 3 weeks. All we can do is vote, vote, vote to repeal and replace our 45th president.
3
Trumpism isn't really about Trump. It is about the failure of both mainstream parties, to represent the common good of our nation.
Democrats have lost governorships and state houses across the nation, US Senate, US House, and POTUS - much of them since 2009. Long before Trump.
Sure, there are headwinds of the electoral college, gerrymandering, and money. Yet in 2008, despite all those headwinds, Democrats won *huge*. Why? It was because the housing bust and financial crisis laid bare the corruption of our financial system, our politics, and our economy. Obama energized voters, with the the more economic populist, reformist, unifying messages - during the 2008 campaign.
Yet in 2010, Democrats were *routed*. Why? Because it was obvious by then, that Obama's populism and calls for reform were fake. As Wikileaks confirmed, Citigroup had picked Obama's cabinet (Geithner, Summers, etc) - long before the general election.
Obama had the chance - and oratory skills - to do "fireside chats", and educate the public. Instead? Radio silence. No calls for a higher minimum wage. No public plea for stimulus to end the recession quicker. Yes, he might have failed? But if Obama had demonstrated a willingness to fight for reform, jobs, higher wages, and balanced trade - instead of a health care plan written by a health insurance lobbyist - things could be different.
Until Democrats redirect their contempt towards the insiders of their own party, they won't start winning swing voters.
3
I just had a very uplifting, hour-long conversation with my 19 year-old grandson, who is a college junior. He is really up on his politics and is feeling optimistic about the Democrats this November. I'm sure he's only one of millions of millennials who knows what is going on and will vote. I hope I'm right because we need those young people.
Our geriatric, so-called leaders have botched up everything something awful. I, for one, am sick andd tired of all the geezers and geezerettes, who live in the past, planning for the future. The Republicans want to make sure there is no future and the Democrats, bless their cowardly little hearts, look like a herd of deer caught in the headlights.
So let's quit knocking the millennials and thinking of them as a bunch of spoiled brats who don't care about anything but themselves. Every generation produces their share of those. We must let them know that we have faith in them to lead us out of this quagmire. They have been given a rough row to hoe.
68
@Carole A. Dunn, our millennials and post millennials were all pumped up during the 2015-16 primary season as well. Then air was let out of their inflated balloon, their dreams and wishes silenced. They are not blind, Bernie opened their eyes.
3
I guess we need to quote Tip O'Neill again. "All politics is local." The 2017 Virginia election showed the opposite of what Mr Bruni expresses. There was an up-ballot effect. Strong Democratic candidates for state ligislatures and House seats increased Democratic turn-out in those districts and in turn changed state wide results.
And actually, that's how the Conservative Revolution started. It started with school boards, and local candidates, evolving into a national movement. Perhaps the pendulum is swinging back in the other direction.
2
There is also this to consider: a lot of Trump's core cohort represents people who didn't vote previously and are likely not to bother with the mid-terms. I am convinced that Trump activated a lot of voters who didn't really care much about politics and government but got excited by a TeeVee personality, with his onscreen tough guy image, and his dark appeals to racial animosity and immigrant bashing. Are there enough imitation Trumps running this year to get them out to vote? Probably not. Besides, even some Trumpsters are getting worn down by his act.
The whole rattle about a blue wave, however, has been over done. Like generals always fighting the last war, political commentators are thinking back to when Obama lost the majority in the House in 2006 and Clinton lost it in 1994. In both of those cases, attempts to change our health care (non)-system played a major role. Now the Republicans are running ads saying Democrats want to change it and they will protect it. Double role reversal or, perhaps more correctly, a double cross.
Clearly, Democrats see this election as a referendum on Trump and their last chance to restrict his actions before 2020. Most people, however, are just going about their lives not concerned with sending messages to Washington. They don't care about waves one way or another.
1
One of the most practical things that can be done to get people to the polls is to offer rides to your neighbors and especially the elderly. A ride to and back, of course.
Maybe Mayor Gillum and everyone else out there trying to reach all voters should consider this helpful approach or strategy as well.
1
A little more context would have been useful for the comments of that influential Republican strategist. From the Washington Post article Frank linked about the Georgia 6th District last year:
"In a ruby-red district that her Republican predecessor [Tom Price] won in November by 23 points, Handel struggled with Trump’s looming presence over the race." She won by 4 points. That's a striking decline in the Republican advantage, and in a district that's been in Republican hands since Newt Gingrich won it in 1978. That history and other recent races, along with current polling, suggest that Democrats have more reason for hope than fear.
1
As sorrowful as the beleaguered school kids of Florida or separated sons & daughters in immigrant internment camps are to so many, the most important factor to most voters is the economy.
Jobs, affordable health care & tax relief for middle Americans should be the thrust of Democratic campaigning. The massive tax cuts for the rich must be rescinded. By this time everyone knows jobs aren't the object of these giveaways.
Labor has always been paramount over capital. Hammer it home. Reacquaint the electorate with progressive ideals. Win.
18
@Apple Jack
Hammer home this:
Pre-existing conditions - Republicans HATE it.
Pre-existing conditions- Democrats LOVE it.
Vote Republican and they'll take it away and the rest of your coverage too.
Vote Democrat and you're covered for what you need without financial hardships.
As Carville so eloquently put it - keep it simple stupid!
3
Of all the states mentioned here, I am most concerned about Texas. Greg Abbott reminds me of the fictional Bernardo Gui, the cruel and murderous inquisitor in Umberto Eco's The Name of the Rose. Ruthlessly efficient and with a fearsome reputation that turned monks' knees to water before being cursed with the sight of him, Gui brought the hellfire and brimstone of the Holy Roman Empire to the monastery where several deaths of curious circumstance had occurred.
Abbott has Texas fiercely under his control and I fear that the analysis of his reach deep into every corner of Texas for Republican support might spell defeat for Beto O'Rourke. Ted Cruz doesn't deserve a second Senate term and Texas ought to be bold enough to try out a new face. O'Rourke is not exactly the Red Scare that Abbott and his acolytes make him out to be. The Democrats desperately (in my opinion) need to turn Texas blue; it's a tall order and Republicans would be wise to tell the president to stay away.
Florida, as far as I'm concerned, has Hurricane Michael as the most in-your-face political dynamic right in front of them. The state is washing away; by mid-century Miami might be lost the way the Panhandle was demolished. The state needs someone to speak truth to power about repealing the no-income tax irresponsibility, admit to climate change and elect people who will represent citizens at risk instead of land developers and insurance companies.
Democrats can take the House and Senate with bold vision.
232
@Soxared, '04, '07, '13-In Texas Republican lawmakers have done everything they can to block certain citizens from voting. These include: Voting Rights Act violations, redistricting/gerrymandering, voter intimidation, misleading voters about polling locations, creating language access barriers, and forcing voters to use provisional ballots (without verification means). Plus Texans have NO way to validate their votes. For these reasons, Texans need to push for uniform, transparent voting processes; working systems; equal access to voting across the state, and wider voting ID proof beyond a gun permit. If enough Texans raise their voices, turn the media/spotlight on pols, and press for their voting rights/protection--Beto and the Dems stand a chance.
U.S. appeals court lets Texas' revamped voter ID law take effect https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/04/27/appeals-court-uphold...
The Sorry State of Voting Rights in Texas
https://www.aclutx.org/en/news/sorry-state-voting-rights-texas
8
@Soxared, '04, '07, '13. The majority party in Texas is the non-voting party. Until that changes it is a backwater Republican state.
1
@Soxared, '04, '07, '13 —On November 9, 2016 we all witnessed quite the shocker in the realization that a majority of Floridians just voted to drown themselves. Maybe not this year or the next, but we can all see it coming now.
@gemli is right: That at least 40% of the populace will still support Republicans and GOP policy—climate change denial being merely one of many obnoxious and dangerous “initiatives” tRump supporters cheer—does not bode well at all for this country. Rise of the Know Nothings V2.0.
Vote like your life depends on it. Because it does.
1
Because of our myopic, ill-considered reverence for the forms of the US Constitution we are locked in the clammy embrace of the blow-party, oops, two-party system of government which ensures a perpetual squabble over power sans any genuine thought of the public good. Both parties have been offenders, indeed many of each tribe warrant sanction if not incarceration (Lock up the red-haired blimp!), but the GOP's slavish subservience to the monied classes is particularly egregious and cannot be
denied by anyone pretending to intellectual honesty. There's a bill comin g due for all this kowtowing to the haves. It ends at the guillotine.
4
@richard
There's nothing in the Constitution about a two party system.
3
So it's ok for Taylor Swift to support Democrats and tell people to vote but a visit to the White House by Kanye West (a black man who thinks differently) is seen as dumbfounding. The bias is sickening.
3
@Mr. Slater: It is not celebrity bias which makes our current system of choosing leaders in obviously difficult times so vexing. It is that such prodding is needed at all for a citizen to wield the most powerful tool of citizenship—the right to vote—that is ultimately so disheartening.
1
@Mr. Slater Kanye West believes slavery was a choice and wants to repeal the 13th Amendment. He also sounds increasingly like Charlie Sheen during his "tiger blood" manic phase, just before he had a very public series of meltdowns and ended his current career.
7
Did you listen to Kanye speak? He's completely off the rails. I do feel sorry for him.
3
When the media starts to produce "you Democrats may not win" opinion pieces in journals not controlled by the Right, attention must be paid. But some of us knew it was never going to be easy, even with all the nonsense and march toward plutocracy and fascism going on in Washington.
Democrats are just like the old Al Capp cartoon character in the "Dick Tracy" series of decades ago. The one with the unpronounceable name and black cloud permanently raining on his head. We'll lose an easily winnable Miami House seat because a 77 yr. old Spanish language challenged Dem was nominated and the Repubs ran a young Spanish speaking telegenic TV reporter. Shot in foot again.
In deep blue New Jersey, a Republican makes fair (with his own multi-millions) to snatch a Senate seat from the troubled Menendez. Heitkamp is toast in N.D. The Russians best friend in Congress, Rorhbacher in O.C., Ca. is even with his Dem challenger. The list goes on sad to say. Blue is my feeling as blue washout seems more and more likely.
4
@Unworthy Servant You are thinking of Joe Btfsplk from the "Lil Abner" cartoon series.
1
@Unworthy Servant:
Al Capp did the comic strip Lil' Abner, not Dick Tracy.
And I suspect you're just as wrong otherwise.
"Don't mourn, organize!"
Send money to embattled dems:
https://heidifornorthdakota.com/ Etc!
1
Yes, in Kansas much of what drives politics is fear and lack of education. That existed before Trump, although Trump has helped Kobach more than he has hurt him. The disaster that was the Brownback governorship would hang on Kobach, if voters were not invigorated by Trump's triple threat of hate: racism, sexism, and xenophobia. Now that it is cool to be a Nazi again, Kobach is back in vogue and might win Kansas.
10
There's another factor. Financial backing. Long term, deeply entrenched Republicans have would their tentacles so deeply and have the ability to 'collect' from so many sources that it will take a miracle to dislodge them.
One result is that the people who run against them are often duds. Some idiot wanting their name in the paper. When a good opposing candidate — and especially an outstanding one — appears, the knives come out, the churches mobilize, and good-looking kids start appears at you door to beg.
I can't turn on the TV or radio or pick up my phone without hearing a conspiratorial voice from Marsha Blackburn's senate campaign telling me what an evil, grasping man Phil Bredesen is. She attributes all of her own worst qualities and intentions to him. Trump's favorite technique.
11
“We're sick and tired of this game of technology, Humbly asking Jesus for His mercy, We know, we know and we understand.”
I hope Bob Marley was right.
1
We're seeing the completely, flabbily, oozily exhausted retread of "Democrats shoot themselves in the foot again" from the media. I appreciate Bruni's analysis and it makes sense, if you're willing to accept whatever result we're being teed up to swallow. All this pontification, but at the end of the day, structural insanity keeps empowering a clear minority party to dictate destructive, antisocial, antihuman policies and enforce them at the expense of the world, our childrens' futures. Where are the election monitors?
If only one could shout in the ears of those lapping up this crazy "Republicans as underdog victims" trope yet again: WAKE. UP. You are voting for a dead middle class, oligarchy, and environmental catastrophe because you kinda intangibly feel like Democrats are losers.
11
What is clear to me in all of this, is that Mr Bruni did not ask Mr Trump if it is all about him – because it is impossible that Trump thinks anything else.
In his warped mind he is the most amazing, most fantastic, most successful President in history and everyone else is a loser.
If Trump had his way – every single building, car, airplane, helicopter, planet, star in the sky, lake, mountain, stream, river, tree, plant, bug, rock, can of soup, loaf of bread, brand of toilet paper, bird, cloud, fish, amphibian, toothbrush, baseball cap, underwear, worm, wine, plant, tree, shoe, tire, car jack, beer, tree, gourmet steak, biological entity, and even every periodic element, and physical particle known to man (well maybe not those as he is so blissfully ignorant of all things re: science and knowledge) would bear the gold plated Trump label.
Everything REALLY IS all about Trump. Just ask him. All good things exist because of Trump. The earth orbits the sun because of him. The sun rises and sets because of him. All things happen because of him – good things at least, he blames all the bad things on somebody else.
5
@Equilibrium
You forgot toilet paper.
2
Another amusing wishful thinking piece. Notwithstanding Mr. Bruni's desperate plea, it is all about Trump, as evidenced by the consistent coverage, albeit hateful, about Trump and his acolytes by him and his fellow travelers at the NYT.
2
It's not all about Trump, but most of it is about Trump and what and whom he represents. The ones who attend the "rallies" look and sound like the lynch mobs of the Jim Crow era. He throws them bones like "border walls" and "lock her up" and they become a pack of snarling dogs.
And just as dangerous are the Trump supporters who wouldn't go near those rallies. They're the Republicans in the Senate and House who view Trump and his mobs as useful idiots.
14
“Ossoff lost.”
That sentence sums up everything that’s wrong with this column in it’s extraordinary myopia, or dare one say naïveté? Either way, I suspect the Times will once again not tolerate any criticism of Mr. Bruni’s remarkably narrow knowledge of American politics and elections. (I say that with some comfort having covered American politics rather closer to the center of the storm than Mr. Bruni is or has ever been.) Many of the most important aspects of our current electoral environment don’t get mentioned here. Among them:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/13/us-election-cybersecurit...
5
@ADN ~
Informative article. Thanks for the link.
"....optically scanned paper ballots, now used by about 80% of US voters"
If the USA really cared about the legitimacy of our elections, 100% of voters would vote this way. I feel fortunate that I get to vote with a scanned ballot.
6
The title of the article led me to believe it would be about D-rex as a useful distraction for both sides of the aisle. A brawl in the public plaza is a great place to pick pockets.
2
There are so many factors that are unknowable at this point, I dare not get my hopes up. The ghost of Election Day 2016 haunts me. What seemed a certain victory has turned into what is now a national nightmare. Sadly we have found that despite polls and political analyses, that Election Day can turn out very differently than was predicted by both. I am still wary of October and the "surprises" it can bring. Further, the Republicans are actively trying to suppress voting any way they can, as we have seen in Georgia .
The Kavanugh confirmation energized the Republican base, especially the evangelical right. Trump is utilizing the Kavanaugh confirmation by holding rallies almost daily despite national disasters. I am not trying to be pessimistic, I am just being overly cautious as we approach November 6th. What matters on November 6th is that people get out and vote no matter the weather, and no matter what else.
When Doug Jones was up for election last December, my Mother in Alabama was ill. At 92 sick and in pain on Election Day, she had to go to an assisted living facility for respite care. My Mother was going to vote for Doug Jones come Hell or high water. So with cars packed high with medical paraphernalia and clothing, we stopped at her polling place, wheeled her in in her wheel chair, and she voted. She helped turn Madison County and Alabama blue that day. She passed away in February. There are no excuses not to vote.
92
@Diana Thank you for sharing that story about your 92 year old mother, casting her vote on the way to the respite care facility. What an incredible role model.
You are so right, there are no excuses not to vote. Lord willing and voters' rights not tampered with.
3
@Diana
Amen to your mother and all hell and high waters-in sickness and in health voters. However, Kavanaugh’s wambam thank you m’am good ole boys unleashed a shock wave across America that will send women to the polls in wheelchairs, limos, and bouncing on pogo sticks making the GOP rue the day woman suffrage was passed.
2
@One Moment
My Mother was indeed an incredible role model. When Clinton was defeated in 2016, it was crushing, because she knew that in all likelihood she would not live to see a woman elected president. That did not stop her from continuing the political fight for liberal causes. I was so glad that the very last vote she cast, was crucial to help defeat such an odious political hack who was unfit for office.
My Mother was one of the most intelligent women I have ever known, and she was in full control of that intelligence until the day she passed away.
Whenever I get depressed about the current political situation in this country (which is often), and want to give up, I just remember that day when my Mother used every bit of strength she could summon to vote, because she believed that it counted, and that you should never give up. Every single vote that day for Doug Jones was critical to his election. What if everyone who did not bother to vote in 2106 had shown up at the polls for Hillary Clinton?
Voting in this midterm election for progressive candidates is as crucial (if not more so) to this country as that day my Mother cast her ballot for Doug Jones. Vote!
Democrats have lost governorships and state houses across the nation, US Senate, US House, and POTUS - much of them since 2009.
Not because voters think: "Trump is great". No, it is just that "Democrats are terrible also".
Sure, there are headwinds of the electoral college, gerrymandering, and money. Yet in 2008, despite all those headwinds, Democrats won *huge*. Why? It was because the housing bust and financial crisis laid bare the corruption of our financial system, our politics, and our economy. Obama energized voters, with the the more economic populist, reformist, unifying messages - during the 2008 campaign.
Yet in 2010, Democrats were *routed*. Why? Because it was obvious by then, that Obama's populism and calls for reform were fake. As Wikileaks confirmed, Citigroup had picked Obama's cabinet (Geithner, Summers, etc) - long before the general election.
Obama had the chance - and oratory skills - to do "fireside chats", and educate the public. Instead? Radio silence. No calls for a higher minimum wage. No public plea for stimulus to end the recession quicker. Might be have failed? Maybe. But if Obama had demonstrated a willingness to fight for reform, jobs, higher wages, and balanced trade - instead of a health care plan written by a health insurance lobbyist - we could be on a different path.
Trumpism itself isn't really about Trump. It is about corruption, and failure of both mainstream party's candidates to represent the common good of our nation.
4
It is not all about Trump, but he cannot be removed from the equation. You cannot ignore him and balance the issues at stake. If one looks at the women's stats on presidential approval, they mirror the 63% disapproval seen in the public polls. Perhaps this is a much stronger factor for Senate elections, but it will still influence everything else, including the ability to get out the vote among Democrats and independents.
I wish the guy did not get so much free video coverage--all the same rally talking points, stoking anger in the crowd, the "lock 'er up" noise, the collusion chatter, the pet name-calling. I doubt those moments change much, but the press can't or won't let it go. They insist on the news value (or are so fearful of ratings they won't turn the camera off). No doubt many of us just shut the TV or change the channel when we see the noxious meme.
3
There are several things we all can do to support candidates and issues locally:
1) Contact older friends and neighbors and check with them that they have necessary voting documentation and even get absentee ballots for them if that's allowed in your state. Urge them to vote Dem and explain why.
2) Be active locally. Call your local party committee or contact your state party and ask them to refer you. (Links for all state parties are at https://asdc.democrats.org/state-parties/ ) I've done it all--phone banked, door knocked, and written support for local Democrats and for issues of merit. It's rewarding, even fun, and you’ll meet other likeminded activists.
3) Volunteer to drive elderly or disabled people to voting stations and back home. My own grandmother used to do this. She inspired me, and I honor her for it.
4) Write and send out hand-written post cards to folks in swing precincts in closely contested congressional elections, urging them to support Dems. See https://postcardstovoters.org/ and/or https://votefwd.org/ Kids/grandkids like to help write, decorate, stamp and mail cards. and you can introduce them to candidates, issues, and the political system. Or you can host card parties.
5) Copy, save and forward this information to like-minded people via email, social media, or twitter. Votes count and numbers add up.
4
The races, as Trump has asserted, are rigged, just not in the way he claims. The Republicans have gerrymandered their seats and have suppressed voters' rights in most states, so local issues do not apply.
9
@katherinekovach
And yet, Doug Jones won in Alabama.
Missing from the discussion here (and almost everywhere else) is what could be the biggest determinator of all: Russian hacking. (Republicans have opposed improving election security.)
Everybody seems to think that votes cast by voters determine elections these days. Nobody seems to be worried about hacking deciding elections.
We should be.
8
And let’s not forget that other geographical ‘quirk’- outrageously gerrymandered voting districts.
6
It’s no doubt true that, as always, there’s nuance in how voters choose a candidate: whether they will show up to vote for a particularly charismatic one, stay home if they like neither, or even cross over when circumstances are dire.
But in these interesting times it seems surprising to this Democratic voter that nuance would count for as much as during a run-of-the-mill election, since, as Paul Krugman pointed out in yesterday’s column, Republicans, taking a cue from their President, are no longer skittish about blatantly lying about their policies.
If voters choose to ignore or simply disregard the consequences of this decision, they have either drunk the Kool-Aid and are essentially members of a cult, or are not convinced that the situation is as bad as all that.
I hope that you and your colleagues in the media will not hesitate to strongly call out the blatant lies and hypocrisy emanating from the Republican Party to be sure that all Americans are fully aware of this strategy of deceit and vote accordingly.
Nuance is nonsense. The difference between the two parties has never been more clear and binary — a vote for any Republican candidate is, at this point in time, a danger to democracy.
5
Much of it is about Trumpism to the extent that people like Ron DeSantis try to be mini-Trumps. DeSantis has a go-to ad reading to his children about The Wall and other tributes to Trump.
Rick Scott is a climate change ignoramus, responsible in Florida for much of the denial when it comes to policy changes even when the state suffers from “clear-day flooding” that we often see as seawater rises in shops and streets in parts of Miami.
Trump is barnstorming the country supporting favorite candidates delivering closing arguments on the midterms.
Our country needs to defeat Trumpism next month and beat Trump in 2020.
7
TO Mr. Bruni:
If I am not mistaken, one reads often complimentary mentions of your past articles in Food Section. If you returned there occasionally, you would be the only writer who may connect gastronomy to political orientation, from the leftist radical militant Democrats to ultra-conservative Republicans, and reasonable Centrists in between.
I should then be one of your humble and attentive readers who would almost always have something to comment on your analysis of food and politics.
Any time you talk about elections in Florida, you have to talk about voter suppression. Florida is one of those states that strip felons of their right to vote, even after they have served their sentences, returned to society, gotten jobs, and paid taxes. The only way to regain your right to vote is by applying to the state, where the governor can be a one-person veto for any flimsy or arbitrary grounds. This system was put in place during the Jim Crow era as one more way to keep blacks away from the ballot box. It survives today. Without it, Dubya and Trump could not have won the electoral votes of Florida. One more reason why it is so important for everyone who does have the right to vote, to get out and vote.
5
An actually interesting "horserace" piece. The secret lives of coattails and anti-coattails are nuanced and varied.
There are also the zeitgeist factors, local and national which deserve a column. The coalescing of vague understandings into articulated realities. For example, more and more people on both the left and the right, but mostly on the left so far, are understanding that Big Money campaign donations are, effectively, bribes and that politicians who accept them and rely on them are corrupt and untrustworthy. People are really getting the fact that politicians say the things they want to hear, yet keep putting corporate power first when push comes to shove. Eventually they will get very clear on the idea that politicians understand social issue conflicts as tools to get elected and have very little interest in resolving them or getting people on the same page for our common good.
Americans will eventually get beyond their fear of 'the other' and their secret self hatred and vote for actual 'public servants' with actual integrity. The person of Integrity who has the public interest at heart will do things like not putting the oil guys as head of the EPA and Secretary of Interior. Not putting the Goldman Sachs guys to head the Treasury and oversee finance. Not putting the public-school-money-into- private-hands shill as Education Head. The Monsanto guy in Agriculture. The swamp is the swampiest it has ever been. More and more People will see that as corrupt.
4
This opinion piece is a stretch. Beto O’Rourke has not emerged as a serious threat to unseat Senator Ted Cruz. The latest Quinnipiac poll has Cruz up 54%-45%...with Cruz pulling away indicating a landslide. To make matters worse according to a recent NYT article O’Rourke is playing into the hands of the GOP by raising millions for a symbolic campaign starving other candidates of funds who're in more competitive races. Even more significant O’Rourke had close the gap to 3 percentage points a month ago during the Kavanaugh hearings. After that Democratic wrought disaster his polling numbers have flat-lined. Truth be told Democrats are panicking. Their strategy & tactics to win the midterms is coming apart. They've lost the Senate...it's already out of reach with three weeks to go. They may not win the house. The GOP base is very angry & will turn out in huge numbers. Republican voters have shown up in every off year election since 2010...pretty much guaranteed after this messy judicial hearings. The GOP base isn't mad because Kavanaugh was under assault. They’re furious because they saw this as Democrats trying to sink the nomination outside of the rule of law. There’s a reason why the burden of proof sits with the accuser. Without that burden, any accusation can be used as a political tool. We can't have a functioning government where every congressional activity is held hostage like this. The real story of the midterms will be how badly the left over-played a winning hand.
4
Can we get an analysis of how many people have switched party registrations in the last two years?
6
Democracy is a messy business. It empowers people to say how they want to be governed, what their priorities are, but it also allows for ignorance and arrogance to speak, even to win elections (by any means possible).
Democracy if frail. There will be a blue wave in November, but there will also be voter suppression, disinformation, manipulation. Republicans will fight back. They may be outnumbered, but they don't depend on democracy to win elections, they win elections by tricks, deceit, intimidation, outright fraud, outright purchase.
Democracy may be messy and frail, but it has education on its side, which is to say: Democrats have education on their side. Eventually, democracy/Democrats will prevail. Hopefully in November, but even if America is not saved in November, it will be saved from Republicans. Knowledge will win out over ignorance.
3
Article after article discusses "the trump voter" without ever discussing why these folks voted for d trump in the first place. They convinced themselves, with the help of Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham, etc., that President Barack Obama was the worst president to ever hold the office. If one believes President Obama was the worst, than the "not Obama" president is ipso facto a better president. Period.
Until news editors find the courage to fully discuss this fact, there will never be understanding of why the 40 percent continue to uphold any and everything the regrettable d trump does to America and the office of the Presidency.
6
How tiresome has it become to read only about the politics in the 4th oldest republic in the world that has become an account of the shenanigans of the members of the two-party cartel. And even more surprising that "The people is silent" and it puts up with it and the taxes, as a flock of sheep led to be shorn.
1
Nothing defines this presidency more than the never ending divisive Trump campaign rallies, held at the taxpayers’ expense, and which now seem to have replaced governing. Whatever the results of the mid-terms, this non-stop clearly unethical campaigning by a sitting president is set to continue and only accelerate as we move toward 2020. It is appalling.
10
I am seriously concerned about voter suppression. I am not a conspiracy theorist and I worked as an election judge when I lived in Illinois, so this doesn’t come naturally to me. But it is the little things that worry me. In Missouri if you vote absentee, you must have your signature notarized. I have lived all over the country and I’ve never seen that before. But do the housebound elderly or sick or less educated know what a notary is, much less how to find one? What’s going on in Georgia makes me sick to my stomach. These are only two isolated examples, but what else is going on across the country, say in Texas or Florida ? How many states refused assistance from the ( Obama) federal government when evidence of hacking of the voting systems was presented? When the state’s election officials are ideologues, or corrupt, or incompetent, how can we trust the election results?
63
As a liberal voter, I am not optimistic about the blue way. Yes there will be gains but not enough. I pick Massachusetts as an example. The bluest state will reelect a republican governor. He is supposed to be the most popular governor in the country, yet he has not delivered much. Health care has gone up, transportation is terrible, big scandal with state troopers robbing tax money, roads are a disgrace, public schools continue to cut programs, supported national guards to separate families and his “big achievement”, opioid crisis has done very little to curb this national problem. So, no, it is not all about the president. It is about how media only focuses on the president and gives free pass to the current governor and ignore the local issues that matter. Honestly, if a blue wave were to come, Massachusetts would be bluer than bluest after the midterm. But it is not.
16
@DREU
I couldn't agree with you more about our overpraised chief executive. Back in the day when liberal Republicans still existed, we could elect a GOP governor with some expectation that they'd do more than raise state fees and undercut public services. But those days are long gone. Our previous Republican governor ran away from the one good thing he did for the Commonwealth, and the current one is making decisions that undercut the promise of affordable healthcare. Still, Massachusetts is doing better than a lot of places, and we need to keep the state house in Democratic hands as a check on our Republican governor.
@DREU
Those state troopers are unionized public sector employees. As for transportation and roads - you guessed it, dominated by unionized public sector employees. Schools. Ditto. Look, if you support strong public sector unions with incredible power over elected officials, don't complain when decades of their domination leads to overt corruption and collapse. It doesn't matter what party your elected officials belong to. Remember, "big money" in politics isn't all about the super rich and big corporations. It's about big public sector unions, too.
As one whose glass is neither half full nor half empty, but likely with a hole in it, I am having those 2016 blues again, not to confused with a blue wave. As an independent, I would settle for a blue ripple to get things closer to equilibrium in politics. A dose of civil discourse would also be a nice change.
However, as a life-long reader of the NYT, and one who considers himself informed via other media sources regarding domestic and world events, I am beginning to wonder if those election maps of the USofA aren't trying to tell me something. A cursory glance of all the 'red' between the coasts [with notable blue blip exceptions] aren't screaming - the majority no longer rules. When a Senator can be elected with less than 150,000 votes and be on an equal footing with one who garners a half million or more, something is amiss. When totally 'red' states are dominated by like-minded folks so set in their ways that there is no realistic chance for serious opposing views, I fear a 2016-like surprise might greet me on another fateful Wednesday.
Boy, do I hope I am wrong this time, but that sinking feeling is setting in. While it may not be all about Trump, it seems too many folks have boarded the Trump-train.
37
Republican candidates face a dilemma: If they extol Trump they stand to turn off swing voters who have become turned off to Trump. If they distance themselves from Trump they may lose ardent Trump supporters. Perhaps their stump speeches should say: I think Trump has done a marvelous job but I don't agree with how it's getting done.
1
Then there is the obvious. A great many vote on the basis of the R or D behind the name on the ballot regardless of position on issues. Another group votes against the R and D on the ballot regardless of position on the issues against their own self interest. There is the wide gulf between those who register and say they will vote and actually vote. Lastly, in rural america, they run as a package at the state legislature level. The representatives and senators run as a bloc and voters vote for them as a bloc rather than a la carte.
6
@tom
Thanks for placing the useful metaphor "a la carte" on the table of politics. Now if only we can tempt people with a mouth-watering banquet of borscht, biryani, burritos, and blueberry pie.
It's interesting that the base wanted a flamethrower like Trump, whereas other races are more dependent on the traditional values held by the respective parties. In the current situation we have - a lock-up of all three branches due to Republican control - it is still the centrists, moderate and establishment Republicans who can keep things tipped in the GOP direction. They enable Trump, much as the rest of us might think that Trump is on his own.
While it is the base that currently exercises the most power, rejecting candidates for not being pro-Trumpian enough, let's not forget that the "tag-alongs" who are not enamored with Trump do a very important job for the party and this administration. This is why Trump's base-centered politics has been as effective as it has been: because the "tag-alongs" are traditional GOPers who want their power and control of all branches, regardless of their mixed or negative feelings toward Trump, and prefer that over Democrats.
Trump masterfully obfuscates the issues, and the traditional Republicans carry his water to the elections.
6
In the companion editorial in today's NYT entitled "Will Trump Face Impeachment?" the writer closes with a quote from Steve Bannon saying that "This election is an up-or-down vote on whether to impeach Trump." That's the way the Republicans are framing it. And I greatly fear it will work. And if it does...
5
South Florida has a very different mix than the rest of Florida but some die-hard Republicans who live around me say the will vote for Nelson and, that they never will give their vote to DeSantis (does not mean they will vote for Gillium).
I certainly have the hope that the state will turn blue. That the House will turn blue. That Trump will lose this referendum.
15
If the electorate isn't smart enough to rest control of the House from the Republicans, I'd wager Trump's first two years will look tame compared to what he'll unleash with the wind at his back from a defacto mid-term endorsement.
30
Really now, can you see yourself having a drink or dinner with Donald Trump, Jared Kushner, or Ivanka?
They are all about themselves, period. It's how they were raised, socialized.
They'll say anything, to keep your support. In the mean time, the world around you is in decline, no matter what Trump's handlers are telling him to say. What's coming out of Trump's mouth is predominantly from a script written by Stephen Miller and Kellyanne Conway. Trump's a microphone for their messages.
The energy being pumped into the natural world from our means and ways of existence is showing itself seasonally and
there's no turning it back for the present time. What is in place will take decades to play itself out: local weather, hurricanes, snow storms, droughts. the seas continue to rise as the polar caps melt at astonishing rates. Sea water will continue to inundate our shorelines. Salt water is undermining local infrastructures and the amount of local coffer monies is just not there.
The incurious are about to get a rude awakening, and education they are not getting from just doing a little more than listening to Fox News. Big Business is frightened across the globe. They're already experiencing difficulty getting their goods into the marketplace. And if the effects of the Religious Right and the Evangelicals as they deny 'science' due to their fundamentalist views, aren't countermanded, we're sunk, because the Republican Party will say and do everything to keep their support.
17
Frank,
Trump has just helped with what we ourselves created: uncivil impasse. He may have affirmed and displayed it, But the rest of us have made it our own.
You are right about this: It's not all about Trump. It's all about us.
11
Yes, local factors may decide some elections. But Dems hope and pray that Trump makes it a referendum about him — as he will be tempted to do. And when has The Donald ever consistently resisted that temptation?
16
In the latest poll I've seen, the preference for Democrats for control of Congress has an average of +6.9 (range: +2 to +13). That should translate to a substantial number of House seats for Democrats. However, polls are often wrong. In the 2016 election there was the "hidden" vote for Trump (people who voted for him but wouldn't admit that they did) which apparently put him over the top. If the hidden vote is still present, it will work for conservative Republicans. It may be just a post-Kavanaugh bump, but it seems to me that momentum has now shifted to the Republicans. Mr. Bruni is absolutely correct that a popular candidate in a state will generally translate to victory for other candidates of the same party. And then there is this: Democrats generally find some way to shoot themselves in the foot in almost any election. I find myself discouraged and believing that there will be no blue wave at all.
12
@RF The polls are invariably “national” and thus worthless in elections that are decided on a congressional district by congressional district level.
4
Everybody in almost every endeavor screws up and somehow finds a way to shoot themselves in the foot. Nevertheless, that doesn't mean that they don't succeed in their mission. They just have to limp awhile after the success. Group discouragement and disbelief are the true killers to succeeding.
Finally, those "hidden" Trump voters were, and still are the "ashamed" Trump voters. They just can't talk about it much and won't look at you when trying to explain it. They know there is no reasonable defense for their actions but they'll do that anyhow.
2
I live in a senior affordable housing where everyone is on Social Security, Medicare, and nearly everyone is a first generation immigrant (mostly from Cuba) who benefited from the help of others when they came here. In other words they depend on all the programs and efforts which Democrats have made possible and which Republicans have spent decades intent on destroying, most notably under Trump.
Despite all this the majority of them will almost certainly vote Republican and are strong supporters of Trump.
I have several notions as to why such an apparent paradox. Many blame Democrats for the Bay of Pigs; the return of Elian Gonzales to his father in Cuba; and are bitterly opposed to efforts at normalizing relations with Cuba by Obama. Many (most?) believe they had better economic and social status under the dictatorial rule of Batista that was lost under Castro. While they are adamant against improved relationships with Cuba and its "communist" regime, even though it would likely improve the life or relatives still there, they apparently have no problem with having normalized ties with Russia, a "communist" nation that was the chief enabler of Castro's Cuba. The inconsistencies go on and on.
Indeed, in the local election for Congress the Republican candidates mailers are basically a list of every Democratic policy accomplishment and a transparent lie about her own positions.
My point is truth, facts, and common sense will not decide any of these elections.
66
@zb I agree. Democrats have been responsible for so many programs which favor the middle- and lower-income groups in the U.S. (Social Security, Medicare, Unemployment Compensation, Safety in the Workplace, etc.). Moderate Republicans Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon and George W. Bush gave us the Interstate Highway System, the EPA and Medicare Part D respectively. Very conservative, right-wing Republicans fought those programs tooth and nail. The only programs supported by right-wingers are tax cuts for the rich.
38
@zb Never mind Russia. How do they feel about normalizing relations with Kim Jong Un?
It’s understandable how the Cubans feel about Kennedy-Castro, but most Americans don’t care about Cuba anymore than they care about Puerto Rico or Mexico. Those are “Latino” issues that tend to cancel out the so-called “Latino vote.”
1
I am struck about the silence on gun violence as an issue in the mid-terms. This was a matter that seemed to galvanize youth across the country, and could mean higher youth voter turnout. Is it that it will similarly galvanize the NRA crowd? Silence on the matter is deafening.
36
@Horsepower, in 2016, the NRA spent close to $52million. This elections, they've spent only $4.2million.
I'm not sure why they're only at about 10% of the 2016 cycle, but surely, that has a lot to do with the silence on the issue.
Current FBI investigations into Russians funneling money into politics through the NRA might have something to do with this; but to think that 90% of the NRA political budget came from sources originally outside the nation borders on the ludicrous.
Source of data to substantiate the NRA spending:
https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/detail.php?cmte=National+Rif...
2
@Horsepower For young people, the incidents of gun violence were “centuries ago.” Young people get over gun violence faster than they do pop songs.
That’s why the Vietnam war never really played a part in changing the political calculus. Many of those who opposed the war eventually became Republicans and came to support the war. Some even pretended to have fought in the war.
2
Actually the vocal campaign by Democrats and the press over the past year, to make everything about "abolish ICE", "Sanctuary Cities", and school shootings (gun control), has not gone unnoticed, in terms of showing voters what Democrats believe, and which issues they prioritize.
Unfortunately for Democrats, these positions motivate opponents more than supporters.
From NYT's Thomas Edsall:
"..among those who say immigration is their top issue, opponents outnumber supporters by nearly two to one. In this respect, immigration is similar to gun control — both mobilize opponents more than supporters."
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/16/opinion/the-democrats-immigration-...
But, aren't anti gun positions popular? Well, don't infer too much from polls without parsing the question carefully. Yes, 80% favor "reasonable" regulation. But for many, castle laws and concealed carry are "reasonable". Look at all the states that's have legalized concealed carry.
Harping on wedge issues is a losing game. Wedge issue voters know where Dems stand on wedge issues, and swing voters don't care.
Voters have been waiting for an economic populist - fed up with both parties. Democrats *could* unite the nation, if they embraced their New Deal economic policy roots - but their donors won't let them.
Trumpism isn't about Trump. It is about anti establishment economic sentiment, long festering, and looking for a champion. A rejection of mainstream candidates of both parties.
3
Nevertheless, the historical trend is for the political party in power to lose some of that power in the mid-terms, and that's where I'm placing my bet.
16
@William I’ll take that bet. I predict the Republicans may lose some House seats, but they will retain control of both chambers.
1
Frank Bruni is correct to point out that midterm elections are not simply biennial elections in which there is no contest for president. Midterms take on a life of their own.
While the popularity or unpopularity of the person sitting in the White House matters in midterm elections, it is secondary. There is a greater chance in a midterm election that a voter bothers to vote because of a positive or negative feeling about a down-ticket candidate or a statewide issue.
In midterm elections the governor usually heads the ticket, but the influence of the race for a lower office or federal office can flow upstream in voters’ minds.
Also, one suspects that a greater percentage of voters in midterms make their final decisions inside the voting booth. This is why each party tries to get people thought to be loyal to vote early or submit absentee ballots – Election Day changes of mind scare politicians.
4
The fact that Democrats are competitive this election cycle remains the biggest story of 2018 midterm elections. Despite a booming economy and tax cuts, Republicans find being tied to Donald Trump is like swimming chained to a couple of cement blocks.
The Midwest, which helped Donald Trump win in the Electoral College, looks to swing to Democrats. The fact that Tennessee and Texas are competitive for Democrats, while the Republicans have not expanded their political targets speaks volumes about this election.
Don't let the media tell you that Donald Trump is winning, because he still looks like he is ill-suited for leadership. Remember when the media was crowning former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura as the wave of the future, he was out in four years.
25
@Joe Wilson
From where I sit, there is no booming economy. I see higher costs of living as far as the horizon.
Second, besides the weight of the Trump Administration policies opposing "global warming" and the transfer of FEMA funding to Immigration (i.e. the Wall), Florida Republicans will rue Hurricane Michael as another Democratic factor for statewide losses. https://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/house/355225-69-republicans-vote-....
3
@Joe Wilson
I would add: (1) That 'booming economy' is a continuation of the growth under Obama; the graph continues on a straight line, of course Trump calls it 'the best ever'. (2) The tax cuts are worse; an irresponsible, selfish move which will balloon the deficit for future generations to pay. (3) Slashing environmental regulations will cost; neutral observers estimate thousands of additional deaths in the future. So we can pretend it's the blissfully ignorant 50's ? No.
He's done, his magic is transparent, it's just a matter of time for some of our fellow Americans to realize it.
If what you say is true, Rossi will be defeated (yet again)--this time in WA-8 (we can only hope) as the western districts will influence that race.
WA-3? Maybe not (she's a well liked Republican incumbent).
We can all dream of WA-5 turning blue to avenge Tom Foley, but I'm not waiting for that...
2
Trump can never be wrong. If a Republican wins Trump will claim full credit. If a Republican loses Trump will identify the local factors that caused the loss. Mea culpa is not part of the Trump lexicon.
47
Republicans hate the straight party ticket. Except when they don't. And Frank is right about Greg Abbott in Texas. If there were no governor's race this year in the Lone Star State, Cruz would be cruisin' for a bruisin'. If Cruz wins, it will be because he coasted in on Abbott's coattails, and for that reason only. The straight party ticket will be decisive in Texas this year.
12
Not all about Trump, of course not. The US Constitution was adopted centuries ago. That's the constitution that retains slave-state clauses that are undemocratic and distort American politics. The GOP adopted its Southern Strategy decades before Trump first declared his bankruptcies. The willingness of so many to follow this pied-piper has its roots deep in American and European history. Headline in Irish Times today: "Belfast bakers in ‘gay cake’ case urge Christians to take their stand"
10
I am surprised that in all of this, voter suppression, Crosscheck, (compliments of Kris Kobach), and HACKING are rarely if ever part of the analysis. Personally, I am more worried about corruption in these areas, (and votes being changed/not properly counted, people being unable to vote and/or having their votes disqualified), than a good number of the other, albeit seemingly valid, variables. I believe the presidential election of 2016 was severely hacked and compromised, and if we knew the TRUE numbers, Hillary would have won by a double landslide; we already know, of course, that she won the popular vote by 3 million!!! I am concerned the Republicans, (and the Russians), already have it all pretty much "fixed" in the places that the results need to be in their favor most of all. And the various potential wins for Democrats that we will see will mainly serve to keep an illusion of democracy going--as if our votes truly count. With such a cynical and pessimistic view on the situation right now, I will still vote, and encourage everyone I know to do the same, but I'm not so sure the integrity of our elections has any integrity anymore with past Russian interference, gerrymandering, voter suppression, etc. playing such a tremendous role. I will dance all night long, however, if a Blue Wave that ought to be on the way, proves these concerns wrong....
61
Absolutely- in district after district, we’re going to see Republicans ‘win’ by the tiniest of margins. Enough to win, but not enough to raise too many suspicions.
19
@LM-Agreed. If anyone cares to look--there is plentiful evidence that hacking voting machines and flipping votes is easy to do. Sadly many states' voting systems are still insecure.
https://www.wired.com/story/defcon-election-threat-funding
Intro to Election Theft in America
https://tinyurl.com/yanc473c
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_Election_Solutions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hacking_Democracy
17
@LM
My thoughts exactly! Remember that most electronic voting machines in use today were built and programmed by a company once called Diebold, whose owners are known to be Republican donors. Also recall their refusal to refusal to make the source code of their machines "open" to scrutiny. Given these factors, I'm not confident that voting in November (or indeed the vote of 2016) will be or was innocent of corruption. Yet, I hope I'm wrong!
8
Isn’t it really just the usual two party game of “ musical chairs” again this November? The party that gets the big enchilada of POTUS always has losses during the following mid-term election. The bad guys this time around is the GOP and their perceived rich-mans tax cuts as the catalyst for the good guy democrats to rally the sheep, Er, voters, into the voting booths and elect a democrat who cares about their Entitlements. BaaaHumbug!
4
Funny how the phrase that was apparently coined by Tip O'Neill nearly forty years ago, "All politics is local," still has some pretty long legs regardless of how much the country has changed and swung back and forth. As predictable as a pendulum.
Also funny how polls and predictions always manage to thoroughly outsmart/humiliate pollsters the the closer it comes to election day due to the media hype designed to gin up their ratings. Think "Dewey Defeats Truman" and Hillary 2016.
Sad how everybody falls for the same game every time. The Blue Wave is gone, the red one never was yet will soon be hailed by an offshoot of Bill Clinton also being known as 'The Comeback Kid.'
In other words, manage your expectations but don't forget to vote. Because we've never been in such sorry shape.
And because you never know.
11
From the beginning of the campaign season, it seemed clear that Beto O'Rourke was not just running against Ted Cruz (who pulls nobody in) but against the more potent GOP Governor, Greg Abbott, who polls extremely well among Texas's large Hispanic population. As conservative as Abbott is, he is not Trump and goes out of his way to recognize Hispanic families and their contributions to Texas. I thought I'd be reading a lot about the Abbott voting effect in Texas' elections but hardly a word. I think Beto understands it, too, and he's to get that right to dump Cruz.
13
When in doubt, donate to the Blue Wave !
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/supportactblue?refcode=footer_button
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/gillum-for-governor-1?utf8=%E2%9C%93&a...
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/nelson_search?refcode=ads_google_nat_s...
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/heidi-heitkamp-1
And remember....Republicans can't stand democracy.
Vote in historic numbers on November 6 2018
125
True, it isn't all about Trump.
However, it is not just Trump who has acted as if it is.
Since the last election, the Democrats have talked about little else than Trump, and have expected to ride Outrage into office without offering anything past "NeverTrump."
Trump's ego centered understanding is wrong, but so is Democrats' excuse-centered understanding.
22
@Mark Thomason: Wrong. We have a media obsessed with Trump, who, by the way, behaves outrageously. And there is no equivalency between democracy and fascism.
@Anna -- You are not really disagreeing with me. Who is that media? Where were they in the last election, and what are their politics?
If Democrats could break away from "but, but, Trump" to do what they need to do, it would appear loud and clear in exactly that media.
That is the problem, not an excuse for the problem.
I'll go with what Molly Ivins said years ago: ''I bet on politics and I make money betting on it. And I never put money on it until six weeks before an election''
However, I wouldn't bet money on any of the elections until the results are almost in. Things are way too fluid right now. Trump is the GOPs camouflage. He does or says one outrageous thing and they go and do a few while we're all paying attention to Trump. We need to pay attention to both.
24
Frank, I adore you. BUT, this fills me with dread, not Hope. Why ? Because we haven’t hit rock bottom, yet. Trump still has enough fans, and the GOP enough big money Donors to win. And that’s Even BEFORE their usual agenda of Lie, Cheat and Steal. Now, Imagine Trump after another 9/11 Event. His response? Paper towels OR Nuclear Strikes ?? More Tax Cuts or more Tariffs on our supposed Allies ? Kanye West as the new FEMA Director ? Trump IS the Disaster, and entirely Manmade.
VOTE in November. While we still can.
113
Thank you for the interesting analysis Mr. Bruni, you make some very valid points about the election being decided by local issues; but you're wrong about it not being about Donald Trump -- because it is.
In fact, I'll go so far as saying that these midterm elections will be as much a referendum on his presidency than anything else.
This is someone who in the shortest amount of time in office has done more to denigrate the office and the morals of the country than any other president in recent history.
And by incorporating the Republican party as his own and casting it in his own image, Mr. Trump has managed to not only alienate over half of America, but most of the world.
So, yes. This election will be, and is all about Trump.
And hopefully Americans will remember that when they go out and vote.
I know that I will.
57
@N. Smith You are absolutely correct. Well said.
Its not at all all about Trump. The horror is that his misogyny, racism, know-nothingism won and retains support from ~40-45% of voters. After he’s long gone those voters will be wanting more — unless the cataclysm of Trumpism is so great that they and everyone else is battered into a frightful wreck of a world in which our current concerns seem trivial.
20
Everything Mr. Bruni says is accurate, and it's unfortunate. Wouldn't it be nice if elections were decided on the merits of each individual candidate, rather than who has longer coattails or other irrelevant criteria?
I can wish, can't I?
17
@J. Waddell
"Wouldn't it be nice if elections were decided on the merits of each individual candidate, rather than who has longer coattails or other irrelevant criteria?"
Would that be called, "Rank Choice Voting"?
I disagree, Mr. Bruni. It's ALL about The Con Con.
People I know who originally supported him now realize what a worthless serial liar and crook he is.
The media wants to make it a "close" contest so they can rake in those advertising dollars. I'll believe my eyes and ears.
15
@njglea Seattle may not be the best place from which to train your eyes and ears for a national election. There aren't many people who would admit to being Republican in Seattle. It could have harmful consequences.
@njglea
People you know who supported Trump? In Seattle? You’re funny.
Mr. Reidy and Chris, apparently you know nothing about Seattle or Washington state.
Eastern Washington is as "red" as the south. The first Chinese governor - Gary Lock - was an original member of ALEX - the destroy-democracy and privatize everything organization.
Candidates often pretend to be democrats to get the votes but are actually closet democracy-destroyers.
I do not know where the "Seattle is totally democratic" came from but it's not true. And it is especially not true of Washington State overall.
No, "It's Not All About Trump." It's about climate denier Rick Scott in Florida who promotes pollution crate a massive, prolonged red tide along the Gulf coast and seem AWOL in helping survivors of another climate-warming enhanced Hurricane Michael in state whose voters include Hispanic refugees from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. In texas, the enthusiasm, the energy is with Beto O'Rourke not Gregg Abbott who has a weak opponent. There,too, a blue tide is rising and turnout will determine if it will wash away the most despised Republican in the U.S. Senate, Ted Cruz. And despite all this, the animosity toward Donald Trump has created a huge gender gap with women, especially suburban Republican women, turning against his misogyny. So, hold on to until November 6 and see if a blue tsunami powered by women changes the political landscape.
21
Gov. Rick Scott of Florida is making himself visible in hurricane-affected areas while Sen. Bill Nelson, his incumbent opponent, has shown up in the same areas wearing dress shirts and city shoes. A bit odd for someone who paid for his own college education by raising cattle. Gov. Scott's trips to Puerto Rico and criticisms of Trump over Puerto Rico's death toll and recovery seem to have earned him a following among former Puerto Ricans in Florida. While the Senate race is neck and neck, I think he had the edge at least until the big algae and red tide messes (the red tide is a more or less natural event; poor monitoring is not). The red tide is dissipating, so might be forgotten on election day.
Florida Republican primary voters may have selected a dud of a candidate for governor in DeSantis. His opponent, Mayor Andrew Gillum, is taking time off from campaigning to ensure Tallahassee is up and running.
The Florida ballot is complicated by a slew of constitutional amendments. One, moving control of charter schools from local school boards to the state, might bring out evangelical voters. Another, making it much easier for felons to regain voting privileges, might bring some Democrats out in favor and lots of Republicans against. Florida has vast numbers of felons, disproportionately minorities.
I would welcome a Democratic US Senator, Governor, and state House. I think reality might be one of the three, or none.
8
@Paul Wortman-Florida is the region most susceptible to the effects of global warming in the country, according to scientists. Sea-level rise alone threatens 30 percent of the state’s beaches over the next 85 years.
Gov. Rick Scott Bans Term 'Climate Change' In Florida
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/09/hurricane-michael-rick-s...
Rick Scott’s investments have included companies opposed to climate change regulations - “Climate change and the regulation of greenhouse gases could have a negative impact on our business,” says a recent filing by a company held by the governor's blind trust in 2014.
https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/06/19/rick-scotts-in...
5
Beto is more than 8 points behind Cruz in the polls and even the NYT is predicting he will lose big.
But keep dreaming about your Blue Tsunami.
I think Kavanaugh has quelled the burgeoning Blue Wave, unfortunately. A few weeks ago the word was that the GOP would struggle to get voters out, as opposed to Dems who are rightly fervent in their wish to stifle Trumpism. Now the Kavanaugh debacle has provided an excellent incentive for the previously complacent red-hatted masses, who just want to “show those libs”, to get the vote out. I don’t think it works in reverse - support for Trump probably overwhelms any negating thought for Trump Women, whereas the same people who wanted Kavanaugh ditched probably were already going to vote Dem. Oh well.
5
@Mat Not for the house races. Check out 538s analyses on this.
I wish you would also look into ballot options like the one in Missouri: Missouri Amendment 1, Lobbying, Campaign Finance, and Redistricting Initiative (2018).
While these are not game changers the Congressional or Governor races, they do speak to the grass roots option that start at the local levels and move up. This momentum can prove to be very important in how our democracy is run. Go Missouri !
11
It’s been raining where I live today, so I lined the inside of my mailbox with a couple of plastic bags so my letters would stay dry. I’ve never thought to do that before, but I’ve been expecting some important mail. Sure enough, my ballot arrived this afternoon. It stayed nice and dry.
Now I’m filling it out. I’m taking this very seriously. I hope you are, too.
159
@Blue Moon,
a lovely, poetic description of the arrival of a critical piece of citizenship in a democracy, an absentee ballot.
Gratitude.
2
@Blue Moon
But will your vote count?
Your vote, and everyone else's vote, entirely rests on an unexamined assumption - the integrity of the vote.
That assumption must be examined forensically.
2
@Blue Moon. Don't forget to submit it!
Florida has just been hit with a big hurricane. They are a state that relies on national tourist money. In short, it's a state that needs to be well managed by experienced hands.
It's pretty to think Floridians will elect a success story for governor -- first in his family to graduate high school. But we did that in 2008: elected an inspiration because of his skin tone and personal story and lovely family... How'd that work out for your pocketbook?
Floridians will vote smart. The inspirational candidate is just not experienced enough to get the job done once in office. The "job" entails so much more than just running an exciting campaign and getting eleced. There's the pragmatic drudgery of actually doing the job of governing all the people...
6
@Midway
Are you kidding me? Obama was pretty good for my pocketbook. As I recall the crash occurred in September 2008 and my portfolio started struggling 9 months before that.
As for Gilliam’s supposed lack of experience that you are equating to Obama’s, isn’t he a mayor of a fairly large city?
Or do you prefer the current occupant of the WH who squandered an inheritance and tried to steal from his siblings when his father was suffering from Alzheimer’s?
2
@Midway. Is your pocketbook so great nowadays? Be honest.
1
Are you saying Trump is experienced?
1
Bad title for the article which should have been named "Gerrymandering, Godfather and Volunteers"
But even as much like mr. Bruni was trying to push the volunteers' side, in an otherwise unbelievably NOT re-read article, he ends up shooting his foot by saying voters would depend on the weight political godfathers will put in (very Democrats-y), and blaming Trump for not having changed this type of system.
Alas, it was mr. Trump who very much changed the system, negotiating till the last minute ( republican national convention included) his membership to the republican party, while gaining his first place in primaries notwithstanding all the republican godfathers were against him.
Maybe there's no need for political godfathers, for sure Dems haven't the ones who get it right ( Rodham CLinton, Schumer) if pop singer Swift has to lead the way to vote registration
1
Ultimately, next month's elections are about more than Trump.
They are about more than the candidates themselves.
The midterms are, at heart, about the voters - who cares enough to show up, who faces obstacles to voting, and who has been outright disenfranchised. Without citizens having either the motivation or the ability to cast their ballots, all the campaigning in the world is a moot point.
Michelle Obama was on point when she said that encouraging a 'get out the vote' effort would be her contribution. That's what elections are all about, after all.
62
I agree with Frank that it’s not all about Trump. But it’s clear from recent cautionary pieces in the usual liberal venues that Democrats are preparing themselves emotionally for what could be a dramatic disappointment: they might not flip the House, and the reasons may have little directly to do with Trump. The Senate never was up for grabs – not this time, anyway, despite the refusal by Democrats to mention it as anything other than “challenging”.
The reasons have a lot to do with what Bret Stephens calls Democrats’ propensity to “pierce their tongues”. They don’t have a consistent set of messages about where they would lead our nation, not yet having resolved this split about whether they want to be moderates pushing establishment goals at a wearable pace or excessive social democrats who wish to level America entirely NOW. However it turns out, I’m betting that the after-game analysis will point to this inability to settle on a party persona in which enough people can see themselves. It’s like Republicans are actually running against two Democrats everywhere, and watering the blue vote thusly cannot be good for Dems.
Abbott in TX may pull Cruz across the finish-line, and Mia Love of Utah might similarly coast in on Mitt Romney’s coattails; but even Independents and soft-Democrats in districts where the Democratic candidate is an attractive moderate are listening to the fulminations of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez urging …
4
… full-scale revolution, and wondering whether they want to empower a Democratic Party that is influenced by such an agenda – even if they like THEIR Democrat.
Then, there’s the heavy bet that Democrats placed – and failed at – to torpedo the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh by any means whatsoever – Republicans are developing traction on this. Finally, there remains the fact that the country is moving forward again, under Republicans, with a surging economy, the lowest unemployment since the late 1960s, serious foreign policy wins by Trump and his willingness to address issues over which multiple administrations have simply kicked cans, such as North Korea, Iran and China.
Don’t minimize the ability of many American voters to consider all this by trivializing their reactions to mere coattails.
5
@Richard Luettgen
The great myth in the MSM is that Democrats don't have a message while that same MSM reports how Democrats are clobbering Republicans on the issues of health care, social security and medicare.
This myth is so central to MSM narrative that the MSM started the meme that the US Senate was withing the Dem's grasp even though even a cursory look atthe map by a blind man would show otherwise (and 2020 doesn't look too good for the Dems in the Senate either.)
So, when the Dems don't win back the Senate (no surprise) the MSM can continue with their 25 year old rant of "what's wrong with the Democrats; why can't they win?; why don't they have a message."
Here's the Democrats message going back 85 years:
Social Security
Medicare
Education
The environment.
They are running on that message right now. But, like in 2016, the MSM is more interested in who the voter would rather have a beer with as it reverts to 2016 form and gives Trump billions more in free campaign air time where, at campaign rallies, he doesn't even mention the name of the person he is there to support and not even Fox News covers the event live in its entirety.
55
@Richard Luettgen
Stagnant wages
Farmer bail outs
Rising gas prices
High inflation
Housing market cooling
High interest rates.
4
All correct Frank, and in Texas's case at least, also reflecting the posture of GOP'ers during the Kavanaugh hearings.
From our perspective, watching our 2 Senators on the Judiciary Committee was despicable, but from GOPers' in Texas viewpoint, remember: Kavanaugh's a protege of Dubya, and he married a Texan who worked for Dubya when he was gub'ner as well as in D.C.
The Kavanaugh Show, combined with djt drowning out news of his family's tax problems in New York and the Mueller investigation's 'quiet period', worked as communications to the base dutifully flogged by Faux Noise Machina.
We believe the Cook Report's numbers regarding which party is likely to take the House; as for the Senate, we all just have to remember what an unbelievable uphill climb it is to defend 23 Dem Senate seats and 2 Independent seats, PLUS somehow take 1 or 2 seats from only 8 GOP'er Senate seats up for election.
Considering how Dems often lag GOP'ers in mid-term turnout/enthusiasm, it's just awesome that Dems are good and motivated this year.
In 2020, things will be different, since then Dems will only be defending 11 seats, and GOP'ers will have to worry about 21 seats being up.
Same as it would have been a real hat trick for Hillary to win in 2016 - considering that only once in the previous 64 years had the same party hung onto the White House for 3 consecutive terms - the roster of Senate seats up in 2018 intrinsically favors GOP'ers.
So Dems need to overcome the intrinsics !
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@R. Law
Yah. This is all likely. And, obviously, SOME Texans didn't find the performance of your two senators on the Kavanaugh matter "despicable", since they ARE your two senators, after all.
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@Richard - Only 1 of them is up for re-election, and his opponent, Beto O'Rourke, just set the U.S. record for amount of $$ raised by a Senate contestant in a single month, so we'll see :)
Cornyn's performance was abysmal because he's a former judge and darn well knows better.
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@R. Law
"So Dems need to overcome the intrinsics !"
The primary intrinsic is the Democrats themselves.
It should not be an uphill climb to win the Senate. The Senate and the House absolutely should be won in a landslide. Just as the Presidency should have been.
Given the Republicans and what they've always done against the people and the country and the economy and in foreign affairs - have they ever done anything good? - beating them in every contest should be laughably easy.
Instead, Democrats are reduced to celebrating the possibility of winning the House by a small margin.
Democrats need to realize that it's not that the Republicans are so great - it's that the Democrat leadership is so BAD.
Democrats refuse to hold their entitled leadership accountable for losing every branch of government, the country, and the future. Instead they make excuses, and not the necessary changes.
Democrats settle for second best, and they're okay with that. Which is why they've lost everything.
"But I have news for the president. It’s not all about him."
Yes, but djt will make it about him. He will spin it so that the wins are due to him and any losses will be blamed on other factors. The con-don and his TV network are masters at spinning lies into "truth".
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Thank you for reminding us that this color coded election has many variables which will determine red , blue and purple.The experience in 2016 reminds us that anything can happen as close as ten days to the election.States have been less than focused on their voting systems so that there will be fears of hacking of voting machines and that there will be false information intended to confuse.However, there will be a huge elephant in the room/voting booth.That would be Donald Trump who has tried to trample every American value and destroy truth and civility.
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The problem isn't the president or the various candidates or the demographics. It's the rise of the clueless voter.
Anyone who could have witnessed an ignorant snorting narcissist stumbling through a disjointed a-grammatical tirade on national TV and thought, "Hey, that's my guy!", demonstrates why we're in trouble, and why there may be no easy way out.
Such a large percentage of the country voted for this loon that we're looking at a healthy political season in the rear view mirror.
Individual elections may go this way or that, but it won't put the big, dumb, oafish, galumphing genie back in the bottle.
Yes, we could send a message with a Democratic rout, or with a few powerful Republicans failing to get re-elected, but the problem will remain, seething under the surface, and looking for an opportunity to catch us napping once again.
We need to make some changes if we're going to survive. Getting rid of the Electoral College would be one positive step. Putting I.Q. requirements on voting booths would be another.
But as it is, we're at sea, and the ship of state is being steered by a demented doofus, who's aiming for the rocks.
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@gemli ~
As always, a creative, engaging and well crafted comment. Re:
"Individual elections may go this way or that, but it won't put the big, dumb, oafish, galumphing genie back in the bottle."
Yesterday while working at a public library, a patron was upset that the computers automatically shut down 15 minutes before closing. "That's bull...t" he shouts. He continues, "That's right, I'm crude, just like trump."
This was the first time I encountered face to face a person mirroring djt's uncultured behavior and giving his crude behavior a pass because the president does it.
You are so right that it is going to be very hard to put this genie back in the bottle.
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@gemli....cute comment. Esp IQ req on voting booths. But why waste typing energy on that type of stuff?
Electoral college? Yes, let's get real---list a few steps to getting rid of it, hardly ever discussed in the media. And say why we should do it.
And how about a few steps to getting rid of the biggest block to any reform for anything--- big money sponsorship of candidates and elections. Most voters and many politicians hate it.
What are the steps? I look forward to your intelligent reply.
@gemli
And don't forget that those idiots have guns.
They were very clear that if Hillary Clinton had won that they would take America back by force.
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Frank, you've outlined all the factors that could indeed make this a "blue wave, blue ripple, or blue washout," along with the hidden variables of some as yet not known factors affecting Trump or a governor.
But there are other things as well: the weather, for starters. Where friends are voting, or worse, not voting (don't get me started on voter turnout). The effectiveness of last minute phone banks. The ineffectiveness of the 24/7 news cycle that can talk of little else until everyone is sick of it all.
Finally, there's also this: the unpredictability of polls. Does anyone need reminding how the media and most Democrats were caught flat-footed in 2016? Can anyone ever truly know how many people surveyed will tell pollsters what they think they want to hear?.
All of which is to say, while nothing can be taken for granted, neither should races be conceded prematurely.
In fact, whatever plans Democrats plan to follow to raise turnout, they should keep at it until the last polling station closes.
Because it ain't over till it is.
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@ChristineMcM-Caught flat footed? I think it's called election heist. And the GOP hasn't stopped. Just look at Georgia where the heist is occurring in daylight. As the Associated Press reported under the guise of “voter roll maintenance,” Kemp’s office has canceled more than 1.4 million voter registrations since 2012, and nearly 670,000 registrations in 2017 alone, to guard against voter fraud. And now 53,000 new voter registration applications are “on hold” at Kemp’s office.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/opinion/stacey-abrams-kemp-georgia-vo...
https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-settles-...
https://www.mintpressnews.com/laughing-their-ossoff-did-computer-aided-f...
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@Ann I'm well aware of the Georgia heist, as well as other attempts disguised as "voter fraud prevention" laws. The voters suppression in Georgia is particularly heinous, as brazen and in full view as possible. Kemp has already been sued numerous times and he keeps on pushing through new laws that require the same "exact match" (including spaces between initials) details. It's overt racism, and overt political rigging, but how will this case be decided with the current lawsuit? The fact that this type of thing keeps occurring mainly in the "new south", is particularly irksome because it represents a "last stand" approach to changing demographics that makes it particularly odious. I'm not sure Abrams, whom I really hope wins, can overcome the clear violation of civil and voting rights laws on the federal level. This guy Kemp is pretty entrenched, and playing the Trump playbook to divide and conquer based on race.
Keep in mind that Florida has seen an influx of Puerto Ricans, in historic numbers, dislodged due to the hurricane, who are now eligible to vote. They hate Trump but are sympathetic to Rick Scott who made 17 trips to PR after the storm. Add to that, the heartless and uncaring response by Trump to hurricane Micheal in the Panhandle (a usually reliable republican area) and you, not only, have down ticket, up ticket influences but you have mother nature tipping the scale as well. Climate Change, which Rick Scott refuses to let be discussed or even mentioned in government studies, may be the final word in Florida's conflicted elections. Ironically, whether we become a blue state or a red state might depend on our weather.
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@Rick Gage Rick, the Census Bureau reports that Puerto Ricans moving to Florida have higher incomes, and are more likely to be better educated and married than those coming to NY. In short, people from PR looking to work have moved to the Orlando area (with jobs in the hospitality area). I don't remember Obama caring when I lost power for 13 days after Stormy. People in Westchester have suffered through recent power outages, which took long to restore, while Cuomo sent crews to PR.
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@Rick Gage
Are Puerto Ricans fans of African-Americans who play the identity card though? Could have fooled me...
The transplanted Borricuras likely are looking for efficient government, not to bolster a human rights feel-good story. And you'll never get the Cuban American's to support democratic socialism...
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@Rick
Cue republicans moaning about how Mother Nature has a Liberal bias in 3...2...1...
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Trump is the distraction while the other oligarchs get things done. That is the only reason why he's still where he is. Let us not forget that it was Koch-backed Mike Pence who staffed the government during the transition. As such, Pence was responsible for putting lists of nominees in front of Trump, for him to pick from. While some left under a dark cloud, they did so after inflicting considerable damage on the agencies they were in charge of. Tillerson decimated the Dept. of State. Scott Pruitt set us back decades. His replacement is working on besting him. Congress has been no less productive in the destruction of our society.
We learned today that Kushner hasn't paid any taxes, legally, in the last eight years. In January, the GOP-controlled Congress made it even better for people in Kushner's position. Tax revenue is way down and cronyism rules our day. Then, there's Kavanaugh who, serves both as Trump and the oligarchy's insurance policy to retain control.
It is against this backdrop that whatever gains in Florida, Georgia, Texas, and elsewhere, need to be evaluated. Will these gains be sufficient to slow down the chokehold until 2020?
In Florida, we know young people are motivated after the terrible Stoneman Douglas shooting. Let's hope enthusiasm wins the day everywhere else. We must have it. Go, vote!
---
'Things Trump Did While You Weren’t Looking' https://wp.me/p2KJ3H-2ZW
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@Rima Regas You helped give us tRump.
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@mtrav
By denying those to your left and acquiescing to the DBC shenanigans, you discouraged millions from participating and, thus, elected Trump. Keep it up and he'll get reelected.
This nonsense works both ways.
@Rima Regas This was the wrong election to hold a revolution.
The republican party is irrelevant.
Take that in for a moment, and now think about the 100,000,000 that sit on the sidelines any given election. Now think about any Progressive policy that is wildly popular. (even among republicans)
This election (and going forward because the blueprint has been established) will be about the future and not about what the candidate is ''against''. The Progressive candidates that are fearless and with conviction for true Progressive policies are not even mentioning their republican opponents by name.
They will answer pointedly and truthfully any question that is thrown at them, without nary a worry as to how the questioner is trying to pigeonhole them. It is already showing up in republican advertisements all of the responses. Those ads are failing. The Progressive candidates are still winning or are within the margins, even in deep red districts/states.
People want their rights now, and not somewhere down the line. People want peace now and not somewhere down the line. People want jobs, prosperity and futures for their kids now, and not somewhere down the line. Democrats are offering that, while republicans are just trying to scare you.
The republican party is irrelevant. Go out and vote.
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@FunkyIrishman-Agreed. The Republican Party knows it's a minority party and its base is shrinking. The University of Virginia Center for Politics recently detailed party registration and found that there were nearly 12 million more registered Democrats than Republicans across 31 states and the District of Columbia. So the only way the GOP can retain power is to gerrymander districts (NC, Wis, etc.), apply restrictive voter ID laws (N. Dakota, TN, Texas, etc.), purge voters (Ohio, Kansas, Georgia, etc.), and continue blocking voters from voting however they can. The GOP has shown a willingness to stop at nothing.
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@Ann I recall that the death of the Republican party was reported in the 1990s. Yet now they control all three branches of government.
@FunkyIrishman If the dems do not get out and vote, then the president will have no check on his power, and agenda. Get out the vote.
Amy. Klobuchar for President.
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Florida may be taking note
On their tragic events Trump don't dote,
Climate change denial
Makes neglect worthwhile
No need for safeguards to erect.
It may mean a lot at the polls
As Trump his great genius extols,
A great bottom feeder
And dim witted leader
Unfit for presidential roles!
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