“ immigration, allies, values” you say are the USA’s great strengths, eh? It certainly isn’t education and trade skills because our fully employed businesses are searching for those type employees , but they are in very short supply. So they desperately need Green Card employees who are being held up and denied entry by our infighting in Congress per border security/immigration reform!
2
Excluding the so-called 'base' does it take more than one hand to count Trump's friends these days? Let's see: Putin, Kim-Jong Il, Duterte, (oh what other low-life's running governments have I forgotten?) Who else didn't laugh? Sad!
8
The biggest impediment to Chinese success is the Chinese culture itself.
We're talking about a society that has yet to produce a domestically designed and manufactured automobile which can compete favorably on the world stage - and that's a 100+ year old technology.
The Middle Kingdom is more than three millennia old. We're still waiting.
China can only embrace the "victims of the West" story line for so long before they're asked to put up or shut up. Building out cities in the middle of nowhere from mountains of debt, minting 100 millionaires a day whose main "achievement" often involves creating a Chinese version of a Western technology, and any number of other "advances" leave me unconvinced that China is the shining example of the future.
6
A brilliant analyse of the actual situation.There is nothing more to add.
3
The effects of the trump admin is bad and getting worse by the day thru sheer ignorance and buffoonery. One can't really be surprised by this with a POTUS who doesn't like to read, listen to experts, and only trusts his instincts to make policy.
3
"It happens that we have three huge assets that China doesn’t have, and is unlikely to acquire them anytime soon. We should be doubling down on our strengths: immigration, allies and values. Instead, Trump is squandering them."
The only thing trump and his acolytes value is selfish -self justification.
America under their influence is intellectually regressive and dystopian!
4
China has advanced "by stealing intellectual property, forcing technology transfers and cheating on World Trade Organization rules".
No, it has not. There is no evidence that China has stolen any significant intellectual property, nor that China has forced anyone to transfer technology nor–and this is easily verified on the WTO's website–has China cheated on its rules.
So why make such claims?
6
On the surface, I'm frightened of a burgeoning China. Do I want the most influential country in the world to be one that denies free speech, imprisons journalists for speaking out against the government, embraces cronyism on a grand level, and is exhibiting a bold militarism that threatens the world order?
And then I look at the U.S.: imprisoning its minorities, brandishing its military like an international bully, exhibiting gross income inequality on a level with our own guilded age, embracing demagogues who pander to white supremacists.
When you look in the mirror, the alternative doesn't necessarily seem any worse. Not that it's avoidable anyway.
18
Thomas Friedman is still writing the Apps for everyone column after all these years? The educated stratus of our society is not struggling to compete or in fear of falling behind. But what about all the average people who have a ceiling on their abilities? What are they supposed to do? Friedman says Apps for everyone!
1
The US is becoming the "trailer park" nation. Poor people led by stupid leaders while watching our standard of living go down while a few get rich. We fight wars we can't win. We stay when we should go. We alienate our friends just when we need them. We squander our national treasure puffing out our chests while the world laughs. We sit by apathetically while our leaders drag us down to their levels of racism, sexism and misogyny. If the people of America wake up this November and throw the GOP out it will years if not decades to repair the damage while the rest of the world surges ahead, led by China.
34
Trumps speech at the UNGA in praise of nationalistic, narrow, self interest basically invited the world to China's doorstep.
18
Trump can't lead anything.
6
Amen to every word in your article Tom, from a firm believer in 'Do unto others'.
1
I loved this article! So true, if just Trump would listen to it!
2
So China lied and stole its way to economic success. Why in the world should America continue to allow its citizens into this country to be educated, trained, etc.? So they can continue to steal our IP and skirt international rules on trade? See the recent articles on Chinese spies likely operating in America's tech companies and universities. China wants to eat our lunch at any cost and by whatever method. We should be doing the opposite of opening the proverbial kimono to them.
4
As long as you squander local talent by refusing to consider quality education for ALL as a national priority, you will continue to depend on imported brain power to maintain your technological edge. Betsy Devos promoting creationism won’t do it.
10
While I like your general thesis there are a few errors. When you say 11 of the largest tech companies are American you should say only in name, American in name only because while their origins are American and even maybe ownership American you might be more accurate in saying they're Irish, or really, global. They pay next to no tax to America and most of their operations are outside of America. These companies are global. Not American as they contribute little to the American economy. Little of this applies to the large Chinese tech companies which are much more literally Chinese, virtually nationalised. Furthermore, never forget that Chinese money baled America out of the recession in 2008. It's really China who owns America.
7
Chinese infrastructure is leapfrogging American infrastructure while we sit on former accomplishments China is accomplishing new things.
7
America is now being lead by a bunch of hypocrites, bigamist, rich one percenters that don't care about anyone else but retain their own wealth and power. Cheating on one's spouse has become the norm with them. Just look at our so call political leaders. They will say anything to sound educated and lead their sheep to slaughter. We will lose the war with many emerging countries, not just to China.
Remember, the wealthy can travel to what ever country they desire, while the middle class and the poor fight for scrapes. Its not a matter of who owns who. The middle class and poor will perish and the one percenter could care less.
7
Trump thought he was at one of his rallies where the audience is full of dunces. oops. wrong speech. shame on Miller.
6
" It does not have real partners like Canada and Mexico. " and we do?
6
To compete with China we must do more than just attract talented foreigners. We also have a large group of untapped talent in the US, mostly minorities and women, that do not get exposed to the knowledge base required, nor encouraged to pursue the careers of the future. Both pools need resources, from education and mentoring to funding their starting careers. This support is particularly crucial in science and technical R&D and has to come largely from the US government if we are to remain the leader in emerging technologies, as we did for most of the latter half of last century. We have both an enviable research infrastructure in our universities and an entrepreneurship seemingly inherent in our genes to compete with anyone successfully. Unfortunately, the Federal investment in R&D has remained stagnant for decades in terms of constant dollars, and drastically decreasing in terms of the US GDP. The government's share of R&D has shrunk from 1.8% of GDP in the 1960's to mere 0.6% in 2016, the latest datum. Most R&D (mostly D) is now financed by the private sector- a good sign, but not an effective source of basic breakthrough knowledge. In contrast China's total R&D investment, as a % of GDP, has steadily risen over the last few decades and is approaching that of the US. Clinton succeeded in a short burst of R&D increases that faded quickly thereafter. We must reverse the present short-sighted trend and anti-science policies of Trump if we want to remain relevant.
7
According to Friedman,
"We should be doubling down on our strengths: immigration, allies and values. Instead, Trump is squandering them."
Are these really America's strengths?
Immigration was once a strength. In the 19th century, the US was sparsely populated and could make use of waves of immigrants. But now the US is running out of room. LA and NY are congested cities. Much of the West is running out of water. These are effects of overpopulation.
China's autocracy introduced a one-child policy in 1979. The goal was to control population growth which had been responsible for a Great Famine during Chairman Mao's rule, that wiped out an estimated 40 million people.
By controlling population growth, China was able to focus resources on a smaller number of young people. China was able to educate many of these young people to become engineers and scientists.
We now need to control population growth in the US by providing incentives for smaller families and stopping illegal immigration.
Friedman is on firmer ground when he calls America's allies an advantage. Here it is indeed true that the US has had an advantage, which is being squandered by Trump.
As far as values go, the jury is still out as to whether democracy is preferable to autocracy in the long run.
I would favor democracy.
But the rise of Trump has led to an abandonment of those values once held dear, such as freedom of speech and due process for the accused.
Democracy's successful run may be ending.
2
Alas, Tom Friedman is right about our strengths being the recognized importance of our allies, the strength of our values, and the historic importance of both our diversity and the immigration needed to sustain all of this. Of course, Trump is squandering it all, and in just a year and a half, showing us the importance of these elements just as much as how fragile they all were in the first place.
7
Great article. I strongly suggest to read "Destined for War", by Graham Allison. It makes the point that many times, but not always, the up and coming power as well as the power occupying the top spot will start fighting to the death. The up and comer wanted recognition and prestige, the existing top dog wanting to hang on. Think England and France. Or think Germany and Britain. But also, think Britain ceding to America in relative peace. Conflict between up and comers and top dogs are the rule - but the book makes the point that it doesn't have to be this way if you are smart and look at the world with open eyes. Entanglement is our best chance. Isolation will guarantee conflict.
3
Protection for 'industrial' intellectual property lasts only about twenty years (although there are longer lasting provisions for movies, novels, etc.) That means if your industry is behind the frontier by 50 years, you can catch up to 20 years very quickly without theft or improper activity.
China has already done that. Technologically, China is already in the same league as France, Germany, Japan, Korea and--yes--even the US (which by the way is a lagging nation in railroad technology). So "technology theft" is hardly an issue any more.
But rules for establishing companies in China, such as joint venture ownership ratios, need to change. That was the problem with Japan in the 1950s and 60s, and with Korea in the 1970s and 80s. How did the US convince these erstwhile Asian "Tigers" to change?
By convincing them that they are now "one of us" advanced, rich members of the OECD--not by tariffs. China will be there in no time. Trump's tariff war will be remembered as an anachronistic and unwise move by an uninformed administration.
Most foreign or trade ministries around the world know that Trump's knowledge base is narrow and behind the times. Look at how the whole world laughed at Trump this week at the UN.
4
Trump's trade war on China is really a blend of actual trade based war and China containment strategy.
Ordinary Americans are enlistees to fight against China to slow down China's rise. They do not realise it but the facts are compelling.
US fearful China will run her out from the Pacific, thus the only strategy short of war is to weaken the PLA. Trade war designed to reduce funding for Chinese military so US hope to continue to do FON 'whenever and wherever' she please. So there is an insidious sub plot for geopolitical struggle, using trade war as a means to maintain US supremacy.
US citizens got to choose: either cheap Chinese products or US power projection. You can't have it both ways.
Trump is being played by his neocon advisers, specifically Peter Navarro and perhaps Robert Lightizher. They want US to be sole superpower, all ordinary US citizens harmed in their singular pursuit for US sole superpower supremacy.
3
The story in this paper recently about the parents of Chinese college freshmen pointed out the biggest reason China has risen so far so fast. The numbers of new universities and new students is astounding! Admissions have increased year after year in China while the inverse is true here.
In the 1980s, the university where I worked had many new Chinese students every year...now they can just stay at home for their educations. Education is the single most important place for a country to put its money. The United States used to know that...not any more!
5
According to Friedman,
"We should be doubling down on our strengths: immigration, allies and values. Instead, Trump is squandering them."
China has developed values of its own. It does not look back on a history of democracy, with freedoms of speech and religion guaranteed by the Bill of Rights of 1791.
China's history goes back much further to Emperors with almost unlimited power, beginning with Qin Shi Huangdi (220-210 BC).
Which is the better form of government? Americans believe it is democracy, but a form of autocracy under Xi Jinping is rising.
Democracy works well when society is small enough for a well-educated people to understand its political affairs.
But population growth is bringing the period of small societies to an end. The election of Trump is only the latest in a trend toward a corruption of the political process in the US.
China's autocracy has witnessed spectacular failures but also spectacular successes in recent decades.
It is said that 40 million died during the Great Famine under Chairman Mao. But under his successor, Deng Xiaoping, China adopted a one-child policy in 1979.
India's democracy never adopted such a policy.
The one child policy is largely responsible for China's ascent to a world power. The results are impressive.
The US democracy, in contrast, does not even allow a full discussion of the impact of population growth on America's living standards.
Via illegal immigration such growth contributes to America's fall.
For American firms, Chinese firms are not competitors. Our competitor is the Chinese government, which is engaged in more business than nearly everyone else. Much of this is shady (thievery, shady trading, laundering, arms and drugs, illicit software, etc). We assumed, wrongly, after 1990, that if we engaged China, they will become responsible global citizens. They have not. What does Mr. Friedman suggest we do about this?
I.e., asking them nicely, and engaging respectfully has not worked. Instead, it has produced hubris, nationalism, militarization of South China Sea, and significant efforts to undermine us diplomatically.
China also has taken some risk with this silk road initiative, and pumped money across the globe in infrastructure investment. With massive surpluses and lots of American greenback in crisp $100 bills, China can indeed afford to extend credit to third world countries for infrastructure projects such as roads, dams, ports - knowing full well that they can never repay (with virtually all factors of production held as collateral). China may, just may, end up owning significant productive assets all across the globe, with a crackin' network of road, rail, and other factors of production.
I.e., in this they are well ahead of us.
We don't own China. But the notion that we can finesse this is wishful thinking. We can't bribe them anymore with opium. So I guess we have only one thing we can do.
1
which is what?
1
The main flaw with Trump's reasonable, and unfortunately also finding its way a bit into Friedman's thinking, is the idea that we have to "win" and "dominate" in the world economy. There may have been periods, like post WWII where that was true, but it doesn't make sense that it would last. American's notion of its exceptionalism isn't really so exceptional anymore. Perhaps some elements, but other nations, including the EU and China, have learned and developed substantially in these areas. We have to get used to the idea that we will be sharing the wealth and progress with the world. We certainly want to remain amongst the top in these things and avoid falling behind. Trump is the biggest negative in this regard, as Friedman points out, but the entire GOP has been a drag on our progress, refusing to support national infrastructure and research that will keep us strong.
7
Really good comments today. Infusing the emergent economy with our values of human kindness and respect.
2
Tom, Take a look at U.S. graduate schools teaching computer science and data science - they are filled with Chinese students. They receive free tuition (as research assistants), free medical care, and a monthly stipend for living expense. They do great work , graduate, and return to China. Kai-Fu Lee is a product of Carnegie Mellon. As a professor in this field, I can say that the vast majority of applications to our programs come from China and India. Where are the U.S. student applicants? I believe you suggested offering a green card to the non-U.S. citizen graduates upon graduation. Perhaps it time to seriously consider that.
9
@Gerry or maybe it's time for high schools to start teaching more than 'social justice' and art. And that probably has something to do with the dept. of Ed. in college.
China is the only rival of the USA, and a serious one, indeed. Whatever the president Tweets is immaterial in the long-run. The sooner we re-define our relationship with China, the better for the USA. If we fail to do so during the Trump administration, we may never again have such opportunity. Let's not blow it - this issue, unlike others, really effects all Americans.
1
A very important, perhaps the most significant, advantage that the US is squandering and China is taking advantage of is the sharing of wealth, both financial and intellectual. China has an exploding middle class, their mean personal wealth is going rapidly. And their educational system isn't reserved for those of means.
2
Great paper.
Have you seen how Murdoch's press is playing in Australia ? and Bannon in Europe ? Trump's friends are not only despising US traditional allies, they are weakening them.
Last week in the University of Strasbourg 200 iranian students have applied for first year tuitions or specialisation. We had never seen that before. Never. When everybody knows up to which point young Iranians were heading for US Universities...
3
For most of the past 2200 years China has been a socioeconomic political educational technological scientific demographic diplomatic military superpower. About 20 % of the human race is ethnic Han Chinese.
Xi Jinping is the 1st Chinese leader since Mao Zedong whose thoughts warrant study by members of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping is the 1st Chinese core leader since Deng Xiaoping. All that Xi Jinping lacked waz the Mandate of Heaven of the Chinese emperors. But by eliminating the term limited collective leadership modem model Xi Jinping is effectively well on his way to that status.
Donald Trump inherited his real estate wealth and played a businessman on television. Trump's primary motivation for being President of the United States is hidden from the American people in his personal and family income tax returns and business records.
MAGA!
1
We are trying to compete in a multilateral world with a unilateral 'leader.' We should all benefit from China's rise; trade should benefit all parties.
Trump wants to upset the world order. To make certain that we are not bound by rules imposed by anyone but us (specifically him). But in world trade, rules can only come from a community of nations. Without such a community, we are bereft of tools to challenge China's intellectual property misuse (or Canada's paper dumping, for that matter).
I'm not sure whether he's too stupid to figure this out or he sees (personal) profit from disruption. Or maybe it's just more of Putin's bidding.
1
Tom,
Trump is not listening and his enablers are going along with him.
He is letting China win because he doesn't have a clue how to be a leader in the free world.
All Trump cares about is making America white again and making money off the American people. It's too late, but he will keep trying as long as he has his base to cheer him on.
1
Agree..we need immigration, allies and values.
Sadly, Donald Trump and his base oppose all three. Especially values.
3
Twenty years ago I was flying from New York to San Francisco to attend a conference at Stanford University. A distinguished looking gentleman was seated next to me and we engaged in conversation. He told me that he was the president of Ben-Gurion University in Israel and was on his way to Stanford to attend an alumni event. And then he said something that surprised and delighted me.
“You Americans are brilliant”, he said. “You attract the best and brightest students from all over the world to attend your universities. Many of them choose to stay in America and help build your society and economy. Others, like me, return to our home countries convinced that the American way is the best way. I have thousands of students at Ben-Gurion University and I teach every single one of them that the American way is the best way.”
Now fast forward 20 years. I am a medical scientist. Science is disrespected in America, most of all by our president and his administration. Americans disrespect and discourage expertise. The world sees us as extreme xenophobes. Why would any bright person from another country want to come here to study? To be maligned and disrespected as a foreigner? To study subjects that we ourselves denigrate?
Yes, the Trump administration is establishing a new world order.
5
Trump is right about one thing. It's not China's fault. American politicians rolled over for corporate greed and allowed China to use mercantilist trade practices to vacuum up the American manufacturing and industrial base. This of course after the same thing was done with Canada and Mexico. Ross Perot thought the giant sucking sound would only come from Mexico. Little did he know then, right.
It's going to be a bitter pill to swallow and some hard times at the checkout counter but, all things being equal, depriving a $500 billion dollar subsidy a year will take its toll on China. China debt load is far higher than the US and one wonders how much servicing of that debt relied on this $500 billion trade deficit.
Trump is living in the '70s and the whole world laughs at his backward and erroneous thinking. He won't last, I tell myself, but that is small consolation if he takes the US down with him.
1
Do any of you liberals really think that Hillary would have done anything to stand up to China and its abuses?
No, of course not. She would still be rambling on about the importance of "the global community" and bemoaning all of "deplorables" in America and how they should really be more submissive like the average Chinese worker.
God bless Mr. Trump and his work! America first!
1
The US will continue to struggle with Trump since he is not only incompetent but Putin's guy. Trump supporters are just as dumb, gullible, and uninformed as he is. That's the basic problem that confronts the US today. BTW- Trump just claimed that China is interfering in the up-coming elections , in favor of the D's. You don't have to be a genius to see what he's doing.
2
So much of the nationalism-patriotism game is theater. The exclusively self-interested super-rich of China, the USA, etc. share a common perspective that's willfully estranged from the rest of us, wherever we live.
What the Chinese did in the South China Sea was a totally unilateral, belligerent move that shows their true nature. They are risking a confrontation. One shot at our or our allies boats or planes and a retaliation is in order. Had we known that the Chinese would do that, we should have occupied those islands for the sake of free trade and shipping. I am not a big fan of an obnoxious America and not a Trump fan, but what the Chinese did was pretty belligerent and unreasonable. Its time to push back.
3
It may be too late to push back, especially if we don’t have any allies who believe our administration.
Trump's anti globalist rhetoric, on full and sickening display at the UN, is designed to galvanize his base and act tough. A very short sighted and ignorant strategy. This is happening while China is marshaling it's economic and intellectual forces with an eye towards the future. As the article suggests, we should be entangling ourselves with China through immigration and education policies that mirror each other and insure mutual growth. But, sadly, Trump doesn't have the intellect, diplomatic skills, ability or experience to play the long game...He likes school yard bullying too much. Posturing. But, as the laughing suggested at the UN during his speech everyone knows Trump is a paper tiger.
5
Trump echoes many American's baffleing views that if other countries get "rich" or improve their economies it somehow brings the US down a notch. A totally foolish notion. What it actually does is provide more opportunities for US businesses & more cultural exchange, all of which is actually happening.
4
Friedman is talking to the wrong audience. He should present this on Fox news.
3
I know some things even though I have never been to China. The Crazy Rich Asians idea was a concept pushed around long before the movie. It refers to the concept and facts of many Asian-mostly CHinese kids with multimillion dollar allowances whose parents allow them a new sports car every month. The expression "China Rich" is a reference to a level of wealth unknown in Asia before , and certainly never before seen in Communist China. But the total control of all commerce and government by a corrupt party allows it.
One thing Mr Friedman nor any other reporter won't see among tens of thousands of the wealthiest Chinese rushing here, buying US green cards(or the equivalent in Australia, NZ and the several other western nations offering "legal status " for about 1 million dollars or more), is a reverse migration of Americans rushing to CHina to stash their ill gotten gains and avoid taxes. Only the West allows Chinese-who are among the most incredibly racist people on the planet-to pay their way into the US or other states, keep stolen money in impregnable ,insured banks here, and to allow any relatives to "chain" their way in and then all kids born here become US citizens. Show me another communist nation doing that and then I'll say they have succeeded where we have failed. When Bill Gates and all the rest of gazillionaires move to mainland China and send their children not to a US university, but to a CHinese state run school.. . Then, maybe.
Trump is the result of his followers, a significant enough proportion of America to define direction. They want a return to the 1950s, to an America defined by white middle-aged Protestants, where energy came from coal and oil. Norman Rockwell world. I'm no expert in China, but I'm sure they don't want to go back to Mao's days. They have a model for the future. It may be good or not, but it is different from the past.
Whenever that dichotomy came up in the past, guess which country won.
Because of the education gap, China will always be behind in the tech game, despite their big data sets for analytics. China will still have to steal for quite a while. Their universities are just not at the same level as western ones. A PhD is there is not the same as a PhD from Stanford or Oxford, et al, or even any of the many public universities in the US. Japan is much further along, but even now, I am willing to bet, their most creative scientist got their degrees in the US. Stanford grad student once told me that her Japanese colleagues told her they had been sent there to learn how to think. They were good at taking tests, but could they outwit nature, solve the unsolved? China is a generation or two away from this, even if they get right on it, which they are not. Anyone can reverse engineer. It is something else to crack natures secrets.
1
@James Smith
US universities aren't the only or "best" in the world, there are many others in a variety of countries. But, the Chinese send their good and best students to study in many of these countries, including ours; whereas if they can afford it, some of our students go to US universities. Who gets the more rounded educations? Who is educating the most kids? How do you think this will work out in the long run?
Maybe Betsy DeVoss has the answer for you.
4
Too much of the discussion generated by the American media about the American-Chinese relationship is fraught with a zero-sum mentality: if we lose, China wins, and vice-versa. America and China are not heavyweight boxers, in which winning is the only thing; they are fully mature countries with established ways of dealing with each other, sometimes problematic, who, for the sake of the world, need to cooperate, and often do cooperate, on a variety of issues. Let's stop making the Chinese the bad guys; if something goes awry with the relationship, resolve it with diplomats, not threats of tariffs, or tariffs themselves.
If one considers the US vs. China as two competing companies, there are two sets of real world strategic advantages (and two sets of disadvantages).
China's strengths are overwhelming, ours are not. Furthermore, our strength is declining fast as their's grows fast.
Outstanding Chinese strengths are Four Times the population, kids that study 70 hours every single week, manufacturing superiority, the world's largest untapped consumer market, 5000 years of culture, huge foreign (dollar) reserves, very high sustained GDP growth, long-term planning, new infrastructure, global investment projects, politicians who have engineering degrees rather than law degrees, and an authoritarian culture.
Command economies - if done right by engineers - and leavened with markets, outperform capitalist economies. In Russia they say, "They pretend to pay me and I pretend to work".
You don't hear that in China - everyone works and the kids are trained like soldiers. The Chinese do not have socialism's motivation problem.
And what are America's advantages?
Not the Republicans, not Trump, and not the Democrats. Not manufacturing, not infrastructure, and not an educated hard-working population. Higher education? - that's an advantage for Chinese students.
We have the best and biggest military, but that's a boondoggle. Military hardware is a depreciating non-productive asset - a money pit.
The solution is to buy yuan, sell dollars, and learn Chinese.
6
When you add Canada and Mexico to America´s population and resources you come up with a very strong North America. Skills and capabilities complement each other. Nafta had a long-term vision that would help the US stay as strong as it had been during the 20th Century. But something happened and now America is fighting against its neighbors and against the rest of the world (except Russia, of course), and going at it alone. It's destroying Nafta and thus weakening the whole region. And it is destroying mutual trust among its allies. Trust was a very strong American asset. But not anymore. And there seems to be no end to this strategic shot on the foot.
2
All fine points Tom, as usual, but there's one that you whiffed on: America's spending power has severely decreased, per capita, in this new century because the vast majority of the US economy sits in the laps of a relative handful of individuals. The Eastern marketplace is where the future of capitalism is unfolding now right in front of our eyes. And those calling th shots *over there* are truly less interested in the next fiscal quarter as well as their stock options.
6
"...as a society, ... we used to stand for things - values people admire" - this statement may be questioned by people who remembers the past, or at least could read about it, and rationally analyze. Some civil rights and liberties have been compromised over the last >15 years, but there other areas and values that have seen strong progress in last years. Outrage triggered by current leadership may be a (co-)factor that accelerated it.
The United States rose to dominate the world in the nineteenth century by exploiting the resources of a nearly empty continent (the Native Americans were marginalized0. We are now a mature or perhaps obsolescent economy. China has, for most of recorded history, been the dominant power in the world. It is now reasserting its historical role.
1
Having recently returned from an extended tour of China (I'm an academic), I can attest to the ambition and speed of China's rise to world leadership. I have some caveats about how much we should fear rather than welcome their emergence into the consort of nations. I also have caveats regarding how widespread these massive developments are over the entire Chinese people (contrasting squatty-potties with Alibaba, for example). But it was my impression that the Chinese are more that a little fed up with being treated as less than peers in technology, economics and general well-being. Americans beware: we cannot expect to ignore or belittle China and retain our status. Lance Hulme
3
Mr Friedman, 62 million Americans beg to differ. Your solutions only work, just as Democracy only works, if you have a well informed and educated Electorate. China does not have a well informed and educated Electorate because there is no Electorate. But here, the Electorate decides who runs the show and for the past 3 Presidential Election cycles, that Electorate has elected two totally unqualified men to run this country with disastrous consequences! Raise your hands if you dont agree!
4
Mr. Friedman is great at pointing out problems (trade in this instance) but IMO usually lacking in fully defining the problem and by extension in offering solutions. The problem must be fully defined by taking into account how we got here, naming politicians responsible and the electorate's duplicity. As F says China has used it's finger toward WHO rules, required surrendering of I.P., and has offered cheap labor as a payoff. Business got rich so they were fine, many of the readers favorite political/business personality were fine because they were paid off. American labor of course got screwed. Clinton, Bush and Obama were all distracted by scandal, war and/or their navel. Politicians on the right were told by business it was good ($$$), politicians on the left were either too lame to realize what was going on or their chauffeur's were telling them all was cool. Trump may be a buffoon, have less leverage than C,B, or O, and may ultimately have to capitulate but set aside your hatred of Trump to at least acknowledge he faced up to a serious imbalance with strategic global consequences. Or continue focusing on whet you're been. In spite of the rhetoric its still a free country.
1
We are so screwed if one day China is the leading superpower of the world. Not only will every endangered animal be extinct (elephants, rhino, lion, tiger, shark, pangolin. shall I go on?), and all rescources be depleted (potash) the vast amount of disposable crap that comes out of that country will choke the planet even more than it already is. And the final death knell will be the over population of the planet by billions and billions of Chinese. I'm glad I will probably never live long enough to see that fateful day.
1
There are some eerie parallels between the US today and Britain a hundred years ago. In those days the US was on the rise and the British Empire ruled the world. Now the British Empire is just a memory (except for the Brexit crowd, who would fit right in with Trump's) and China is on the rise. Andy Warhol was right, though in world affairs fame lasts a bit longer. I always wondered how the US would deal with the inevitable progression of history. The answer so far seems to be "not very well".
3
Today's China is, I think, a new phenomenon in history. The nation has accomplished two things that Russia in the CCCP days and other communist countries could not. One is turning intellectual and scientific development into economic development. And the other is evolving what you might call the first "smart" dictatorship or smart single-party rule. A consciously planned society planned society that's open but not, um, really free. Internationally, like super-glasnost but with limits & caveats & tricks.
And third, China is really big. As Mr. Friedman's column has noted, but doesn't have room to elaborate on, the large population confers a fundamental edge in intellectual power - simply because the more people you've got working on something, the better the chance of breakthroughs. That's one big reason the Industrial Revolution took off, and fed on itself: more people working around machinery = more people inventing new & better machines. Or to borrow an old saying, with no ethnic slur intended: more monkeys at more typewriters raises the odds of getting Shakespeare.
What's exciting about the future is that this is true of the world as a whole. As populations grow and more countries develop, we have more scientists, engineers, artists & writers, etc. than ever -- everywhere. The possibilities are tremendous. Big job: working together to see that we don't screw it up.
2
While Trump looks inward China is looking outward.
Who will win?
54
@Sherlock "Who will win? "
Not American citizens and consumers.
the whole purpose of the T.P.P. was to crate a trading bloc to counterbalance China.
Of course we need to to more against unfair Chinese practices, in that rump was accurate.
the problem is that rump has only one play in his play book, and that's not how you win a game. As long as he is the QB we lose. the first thing he did was bail on the T.P.P. our best option.
Why Ego, Hubris, and ignorance.
1
How many times can you be so wrong and keep your job? Remember, what you wrote during the Clinton administration about the world and trade?
China still cannot match us. If there is to be a financial conflict, it is better to have it now (win it and crush them) as opposed to let them to continue to steal our technology.
Lastly, you need to look at the demographics and issues which (you have failed to note and predict) which are causing China to have a much slower growth rate and less influence in the world than you predicted.
Mr. Friedman is right on. As example..
The best and brightest are not always the whitest. Our son-in-law teaches in the USA, at an institution always ranked in the top 5 of world universities. He has 12 doctoral and post doc candidates in his research team,, only 2 are white. Recalling Yale's prejudicial restrictions on Asian Chinese applicants, maybe that was designed to save space for those Georgetown preppies, who in an open completion, would certainly outdrink, but not outthink, their Asian competitors. One third of Phd. candidates at US elite universities are foreign born, and in the current climate, upon graduation, likely headed home with their accumulated wisdom to help their home country. Pre Trump, they stayed in large numbers and contributed to America's strength. Now, they will leave with their skills, and sign on to the competition. A specific example would be the French Phd candidate at my son-in-law's university, who on graduation, left to work for Airbus.
I have my fingers crossed that you as a country right the ship, regain your much deserved status as a leader of the free world.
7
The Chinese are catching up to the U.S. in many ways, and the president grasps only part of the reason.
Gotta be a very, very small part.
More proof that Trump does not know the difference between "own" and "owe".
1
The bell cannot be un-rung. Watching the world leaders at then UN laugh at the POTUS yesterday was a sad moment in history. The world sees us as a true democracy and they see who we've put in charge which makes us look weak and foolish. Trump said during the campaign that the world was laughing at us when they weren't. I've travelled the world and seen that we've always been respected and admired. After Obama was elected we were even more admired as it looked like we had finally turned the corner away from racism and chosen not just a black man to be our leader but a man with vision who understood the direction of humanity. That has been washed away with the election of a racist hate monger who understands nothing except things that will enrich him personally. It will be at least a generation to regain our respect but in all likelihood it's already too late.
3
You write : "Our strengths (are): immigration, allies and values. "
You forget the one strength that Trump uses: The volume of our imports from CHina that we can stop, thereby ending, with a fierce blow, the unfair practices of China, that otherwise would continue and sink us. It is NOT too late, as of course the Chinese try to tell us. Your article undermines our Western interests, mr. Friedman.
Edouard baron Prisse, Europe
I was given a copy of one of Thomas' books. It was really tough reading because there are so many ancient bits of liberal dogma inside.
China's in serious trouble. Most of a million young workers walk from city to city looking for work. These will be easily turned against the government just as Mao Tse-tung was turned against the old Chinese government.
It's declaration of war against Christianity and Islam won't win it any friends but will create hordes of people ready to replace the communist party's hold on power.
I am watching Trump as he speaks (dictates) to the UN Security Council and it is chilling. He just blamed China for their meddling in your upcoming November mid-term elections AGAINST him. So, there you have it, if Republicans lose, he'll blame China for relaliating against HIM for the tariffs he has imposed on them, then presto, the election results invalidated. Buckle up, this just might be coming.
1
What I have found really strange is the current ultra right wing claim that ANY treaty with another country is subversive to US sovereignty. Apparently making agreements to do things a certain way takes away from the US "right" to simply force ourselves on other countries. These guys (yes, they are all guys) are getting so far out to the fanatical right wing that they are not even in the ball park anymore.
Inviting Chinas best and brightest to US universities has a downside too. China gets access to advanced technology without having to do expensive research and development.
China was allowed to take critical rocket guidance and stealth technology.
China is even using Google technology to monitor its citizens for 'incorrect thinking'.
"what does such a test of wills sound like? It sounds like a senior Chinese official telling me at a seminar at Tsinghua University in April that it’s just “too late” for America to tell China what to do anymore on issues like trade, because China is now too big and powerful."
I sure hope that senior official had his government's permission to tell you anything.
Perhaps the prediction that the last century was The American Century and the current one belongs to the Chinese was already an inevitable
conclusion.
Yet the fact that this administration and its arguably legitimate leader, have so conflated their arrogance with their ignorance that the rest of the world has begun to depend on China as a strategic partner
at the expense of the United States.
The negative aspects of an 'America First' policy have become increasingly evident and will only continue to grow increasingly faster.
Meanwhile, yesterday's derisive laughter from UN members was not with this POTUS, but at him.
Vote.
4
Trump represents the truly parochial side of America. Unable to see anything beyond the comic book level. He has absorbed the mythologies of America, crafted a wondrous con around them and has effectively sold that can to the least and the dimmest in this country. He may well be our destiny. The rich, the well educated and doers and makers will leave as they are likely to in Britain after a hard Brexit. All totally unintended but all totally foreseeable.
Astonishing what happen s when one country spends decades investing in its people and the other spends forty years slashing education to pay for tax cuts for the rich. Who knew that eventually it would corrode America from the inside? (Well, just about anyone who thought about it, really). America has long had a policy of what my mother would call eating your seed corn. No one is surprised that harvest is getting meager.
6
Thomas Friedman, you have been my 'go-to' journalist for years and I am profoundly grateful for your education, your throught processes, and your strength in spreading the truth. The US does not produce enough engineers to keep the country running, not to mention doctors, good teachers, and scientists. Our public schools are a national disgrace and the dropout rate is astronomical. Does the country do NOTHING right anymore? It is time for a revolution, for a return to the values which made the country respected throughout the world. Mr. Friedman and Scott (comment below) are right. China IS winning.
1
@Think about it
But think about all the personal trainers we have developed in the last 8 years.
It may seem that Thomas, thank you, is holding a garden hose dribbling water on a world-wide conflagration yet we are invited to add our hands to the hose and through our voices and actions at least begin dousing the fire, thus simultaneously leaving the earth moistened for the new growth of the Garden we are now destroying.
I can imagine worse things than China and the US neck in neck over the next 100 years, each competing for better ideas, better technology, even better methods of governance as (hopefully) both countries come to see themselves as vehicles for human empowerment.
Rather than see this as "winning" or "losing", how about we celebrate human progress. The more people who are brought up through poverty and ignorance into a robust middle class, the less likely we'll be stupid enough to destroy ourselves - if (big IF) we as a world wise up to climate change and denuclearization soon enough.
That picture of Trump listening to the leader of China says it all. Crossed arms, angry face with a little confusion thrown in. He needs a body language coach. This is not the body language of a confident leader.
5
Maybe, just maybe, Trump is a blessing in disguise. Maybe he's giving us a good clear look at our real problems, and how not to solve them. Level out the trade with China, with the help of our allies. Update our healthcare system to something more modern. Figure out how Americans can work and have a decent life in a world where we don't need them to make things. And do all this while maintaining and improving the atmosphere of personal rights and freedom.
Maybe the Democrats will come up with a plan that works, and sell it to the nation. Maybe I'm a hopeless optimist. Maybe pigs will sprout wings and fly.
2
Do you want to hear a joke? A real knee slapper? Donald Trump is the leader of the free world. At 84 I have seen a bit of the history of the United States of America, once a democratic republic, where our leaders were elected with a majority of voters of mostly white people
Before 1935 when you died, if you were not well off, you moved in with your children and if you or a loved one became seriously ill the size of your bank account made the difference between life and death.
After WWI we had Harding, Coolidge and Hoover and the great depression. They built nothing. Enter FDR and the Democratic party and we got SS we defeated fascism and rebuilt Europe and Japan with the Marshall Plan and made allies out of enemies and we had the GI Bill with allowed vets to go to college and obtain guaranteed home mortgages and had a flood of immigration with benefited the economy. We got over GOP resistance Medicare, Medicare, food stamps, unemployment insurance, the ACA. etc., etc.
In the 1970's the GOP began its long march to where it is now the party of fascist oligarchs which had reached its goal of a single party republic. We can drop the words, “representative” and “democracy.”
The GOP represents some people but only the very rich and there is no pretense of democracy, fairness, loyalty, patriotism or even traditional American standards.
We have fallen prey to internal enemies and the dupes who put them in office and how can we compete with China with that handicap?.
7
The concept of Democracy idealized by the kleptocrats who have taken over the US died a long time ago. About 1933 to be exact. That is when a purposefully aimless(laissez faire) approach to an economic crisis failed miserably and then FDR responded appropriately.
So now the plunderers of our national wealth hide behind an economic philosophy that doesn’t work, and that even they don’t believe in. It just sounds good to aver that Adam Smith will solve everything. Their real goal is to hoard wealth on an unimaginable scale. They talk Adam Smith and practice real politic.
Nothing short of a major redistribution of wealth in this country will solve the national exigencies of a crumbling infrastructure and squandering of almost half of our human capital. Watch out for greasy pols who want you to think they’re not bought and paid for. Get ready to vote.
3
Trump has made it clear that he's Putin's puppet, but perhaps he's on the Chinese payroll as well. How else to explain so many decisions which weaken the US and aid our rivals?
Sad!
3
Bravo, Friedman, for your keen insights! Over the past many years, we've learned that "communism" (Chinese style, with capitalistic underbelly) may not result in shared poverty. Sorry Milton Friedman! And despite the obvious values of a free democracy, it can spawn mistakes of monumental proportions -- electing a selfish, incompetent windbag as its leader.
NO ONE compels consumers to purchase goods from China.
NO ONE compels American companies to locate plants there.
The behavior of China is well known.
Capitalist greed coupled with a country where the cost of actually living has risen above the ability of too many of the citizens to keep up.
1
I agree. With the present admin, we are sliding downhill. And China seems to be doing well.
Also, China refused yesterday to allow a US ship to dock in Hong Kong. What's going on with that?
1
Thank you, Dr. Friedman, for this concise analysis and prognosis of the threat that both China and President Trump represent to the US economy and diplomatic role in the world.
Reading this, I realized that there is only one potential candidate for 2020 with the deep and broad business experience, ethics, intellect and objectivity to address these issues successfully: Michael Bloomberg.
4
A wonderful column showing just how much there is for China and America to gain by cultivating benign relations. President Xi understands, while President Trump has sadly made it clear he does not care and would as soon strike out at China as work with the Chinese.
2
Friedman is right to opine that China is indeed a global power. I had studied technical prowess of China. China has very rapidly built up intellectual capital in several key technical field. Chinese companies, unlike the companies in India that have thrived on labor arbitrage, have built intellectual capital.
American hegemony over gepolitics can’t serve for ever. With the decline of the colonial regimes of the Europeans, the US emerged as the dominant world power. However it consolidated its power by dollar diplomacy that failed miserably in Vietnam, Iran, Pakistan and many other places. Friedman is wrong that we still have strong allies. Our President has managed to turn them off, notably Mexico, Canada, France and Germany. Bibi can be a friend, but friend like him you don’t need an enemy.
We should worry about a new front opening up beyond Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.
1
@Mr C It’s more accurate to say that China has stolen intellectual capital.
zero-sum game. : a situation in which one person or group can win something only by causing another person or group to lose it.
This defines the only kind of "thinking" the president seems capable of.
4
Mr. Friedman either has forgotten or has decided not to mention that the great strides in Chinese technical advancement have come largely through stealing American technology . He also neglects to mention that China is now under great economic pressure from the non-fabulously rich Chinese, who make up a vast majority of the population, and completely ignores the effects of Chinese political suppression. Trump's policies are forcing the Chinese governing elite into a corner . Trump is right, WE do own them.
1
All well said and yes we should continue to build on our strengths.
But the fight Trump seems to be mainly engaged in with China is also a good fight, and largely independent of the issues Mr. Friedman makes. Trump is fighting for 1. Market access for American companies and 2. Full compliance by China of intellectual property and other laws relevant to a functioning free trade system. Those are important fights, and our prior approaches have failed. At least Trump is trying something new.
If China is in fact becoming a true innovation and science competitor with the US as Mr. Friedman suggests (I have my doubts), then there is much to be gained for China in respecting intellectual property. And China has many strengths in manufacturing know how and infrastructure and low labor costs that can allow them to compete. But they are just getting started at moving into higher value product areas, a it is not surprising that they still want to nurture and protect those businesses into maturity. They are still mostly catching up, not yet leading. They cannot really concede the protection of their infant businesses and ever become a “developed country”
Can Trump push them around with Tariffs? Sure. He can hurt their economy. He can China turn into a greater adversary. He can make it all uglier. Can he make it better—for us or them? Ask Tom
A truck carries 25 tons of avocados from California to New York. It would take 500 very hardy humans to carry them by hand. Do we say the truck is eliminating 499 jobs?
100 years ago, half of Americans worked on farms, today <2% do. What did the 48% whose jobs were eliminated do? Would they rather be digging potatoes by hand?
Technology is not our enemy, trade is not our enemy, China is not our enemy.
Our enemy is the small group of people intent on blocking government of, by and for the people.
Government dedicated to preserving and increasing our common wealth by helping workers transition comfortably into careers with futures. To reducing anxiety (our worst epidemic) over health coverage and retirement income. To producing generations of productive and fulfilled citizens unencumbered by debt.
To restoring the heroic infrastructure our ancestors built, and honoring them by building anew.
All this can be done by the planet's richest country, AND its second-richest, third-richest--EVERY country can do this if they choose. It's not a race, it's the human race. WE CHOOSE to share and grow, or to hoard and wither. It's not about China, it's about us.
12
China has a culture and a history that predates us by thousands of years. Perhaps that is why they indulge in long term strategic planning, decades into the future; while the U.S. is obsessed in the next quarter's profit and loss.
And we have a so called president, and a congress, obsessed with fighting last year's wars.
Alas
7
Your example of China's expanding (relative to the U.S.) list of top-ten public companies by market cap proves only one thing: China can inflate its financial markets faster than we can.
2
During dynastic rule in China and also after that whole Chinese nation was sleeping with opium addiction. The British used to call them sleeping giant and was careful not to wake them up. Since the revolution under Mao in 1949, China started developing. In 70 years, they have become the second super power in the world. They have the second largest defense budget. They have developed very rapidly. Of course, no country can be compared with America. America defense budget is more than the next 10 countries together. It is the best country to live. The wealth, resources , strengths and values are the best. In 4 years, Trump will do some damage but we will fix the damage very quickly provided the citizens participate in elections.
2
@ASHRAF CHOWDHURY
While I agree with many of your points, all the other western countries are better to places to live than America.
If Americans would study other western countries, I'm sure their eyes would be opened.
Yes the USA has a lot going for it as you stated, however it's not the best country to live in.
We should also be saying "Finish your dinner, do not waste a grain". We take things for granted, and being complacent. We feel we can solve all the problems, by making our own decisions.
We have disassociated ourselves from organizations such as the TPP and the international Climate Accord. And, preparing to move away from other world institutions. We are moving inwardly.
When the US has always been the greatest, and helped others to follow the example, we have now suddenly decided to take a different route.
What good does all this change in our approach to things, do to us? All what we believed in, is where we see China taking over. Who do we blame, or where is the problem?
An excellent column - Trump and his cronies can't be gone soon enough. His appearance at the U.N. was cringeworthy in the extreme and underscores everyone of your points.
7
What Tom seems to miss is that the political will to improve the USA’s standing in tech is non-existent outside of Wall St. and Silicon Valley. Where is the popular will to admit more foreign talent, or public investment in tech? These companies take their profits and stash them offshore, produce their products offshore, and use the money to lobby for lower taxes. What do working stiffs get from that arrangement? Tech profits and attracting talent from the world mean nothing to most American voters, and why should it? What they have received in return are lower wages and fewer public services to go with their pricey phones.
3
If we want to be technologically ahead of China and the rest of the world this country must do something to make secondary education more affordable. To go to a tier 1 college without a full scholarship an undergraduate degree can cost upwards of $260K and add another $120K for graduate school. This puts the education from our finest tech schools out of reach for all but the very rich or the extremely talented. There are many gifted middle-class students that will never see the inside of these institutions without accumulating a massive debt.
Our taxes have to do more for the future of this country than just increasing our military prowess.
If China or other nations beat us in the technology/economic war a strong military won't do us much good.
This country needs a better strategy than tariffs, but it appears that will have to wait until we can remove Trump from office.
6
I'm on the fence whether or not your country can ever turn it around in the circumstances of recent history. Maybe authoritarian regimes like China can focus on their economic and scientific priorities better (and yes I know they steal technology from other countries) which results in tech advances where they are most needed rather than dabbling in self-driving cars and such. Anyway, the great gift of the 21st century to America's economic competitors has been Donald J. Trump. If there is a direction the US should take, he will go in the opposite direction.
7
China, like Russia, is loving Trump. They are trying to cash in as much as possible because the clock is ticking. 2020 is on the way and Trump is on the way out.
One has to have hope, and work toward the future.
3
Most US companies that out sourced to China sought the almost endless supply of cheap, unregulated labor. And they made out like bandits. Could Wal-Mart have grown so huge without China?
The Chinese central economic planning dept recognized selling cheap labor was never going to make them rich and so demanded US companies transfer technology as well. The US companies overlooked lax environmental and labor standards in their quest to get cheap products - quickly. They signed the contracts and we all enjoyed cheap stuff. We got what we paid for. All of a sudden we don't like it when the Chinese exploit their position. What did we expect they would do? As Friedman says - we saw how Japan took over cars, motorcycles and electronics etc.
The Chinese negotiated using their position of strength. They sold their labor cheap and asked for payment in technology.
We broke the Maoist communist system and made them capitalists. Isn't that what we wanted? They were willing to work harder and for less than American workers. And it paid off for us short term and for them long term.
Now American companies claim to have been taken advantage of. But they took the profits and paid it out to executives and shareholders. The Chinese invested theirs.
Guys- this is capitalism at work. Its survival of the fittest. It's evolution. It's the game of monopoly played on a world scale.
What did we think would happen when 1 billion communists were brought into capitalist system.?
14
To expand upon Friedman's thesis, in order to be the place where the world's most talented want to gather the US must create and maintain a competitive, opportunity nurturing economic/legal environment. That means breaking up the tech monopolies, not promoting their dominance, which is stifling innovation and concentrating wealth to an unconscionable degree.
3
An important caveat to any discussion of China's growth relative to the US must be the exportability of it's technology. Though it may certainly dominate its internal tech market only the export of that technology can spread its influence to those outside the country. So long as it is a technology island there is a chance that the growth will be confined to that market. This will matter if that internal market becomes saturated and non-competitive.
Overall, well said. Keep in mind, though, that China has really large domestic vulnerabilities, in terms of ethnic rivalry, debt, etc. Has anyone given any thought to what next if President Trump achieves his apparent goal and China reels? Instability or even collapse there will be a huge challenge.
1
Our leaders live in a bubble. The living standards, educational achievement, and infrastructure of many of our competitors equals or surpasses our country. We have not yet had our Sputnik moment. The laughter at the United Nations yesterday is telling.
9
China is winning, at our expense. Let's see what happens with a level playing field.
16
@Scott
You fail to mention that the only level playing field the US recognizes is one that is tilted in its favor.
Read the history of softwood dispute going on with Canada since the 1890’s. Every court case was ruled in favor of Canada. The US never accepted those verdicts.
That is SAD, and ongoing.
5
The problem is that it will take more than belief in the GOP ideology to catch up. Particularly as we initiated the growth in China in the belief we were exploiting cheap labor. Surprise, surprise!
1
@Scott
NO ONE compels consumers to purchase goods from China.
NO ONE compels American companies to locate plants there.
The behavior of China is well known.
Capitalist greed coupled with a country where the cost of actually living has risen above the ability of too many of the citizens to keep up.
1
“It happens that we have three huge assets that China doesn’t have, and is unlikely to acquire them anytime soon. We should be doubling down on our strengths: immigration, allies and values. Instead, Trump is squandering them.”
Trump and some portion of this country, both citizens and politicians, believe that “whiteness” is the only powerful asset. Despite our history as a nation of immigrants, this group has hijacked the American narrative, and they will strangle America with their ignorance.
Values that elevate color, religion, and ethnicity above all are not the values that built this country, despite numerous acts that belied our deepest and most important principles. By isolating America from global, economic, cultural, and technological realities, Trump is assuring our descent to a second world nation.
4
Squander? Trump is an absolute disaster for the United States. They laughed AT him at the UN!!! The world laughs, Americans are horrified.....what have we done electing such an unfit person for our highest office? What have we done? Of course China is seizing the opportunity to grow it's influence around the world. What a nightmare.
8
Trump only understands elitism where people coming here hit the floor running already educated in their country of origin. Some of the most intelligent people come from 3rd world countries and come to our country with little education. That a single person supports garbage like him is disgusting.
4
China is producing engineers.
We are producing lawyers and MBAs. Parasites and middlemen who produce zero value with their hands. But all day/night long trickery and double dealing.
6
Re: China’s plan is to catch up to America in A.I. and surpass it as soon as possible, and it’s well on its way.
With American help
Students, who study it in the US, American professors who teach it to China
Quote :
"SJTU Honorary Professor John Hopcroft won 2016 'Chinese Government Friendship Award'
John Edward Hopcroft, Honorary Professor of Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU), Special Counselor to Vice President Xu Xuemin, SJTU; Turing Award winner, Member of the US National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engineering, Professor of Computer Science Department at Cornell University, won the 2016 “ Chinese Government Friendship Award “ before the National Holiday of 2016. The award is the highest honor awarded by the Chinese government for foreign experts who have made outstanding contributions to China’s modernization drive. "
With US help like this, yes
http://zhiyuan.sjtu.edu.cn/articles/2206
2
IMHO the China/US situation can be laid at the feet of Republicans and business leaders.
Richard Nixon "opened" China to create a wedge between the USSR and Chinese. Remember "ping-pong" diplomacy? He also eased trade restrictions. I remember talk about how it would open the Chinese market for American goods. The idea was that American companies would now be buzzing 24 hours a day. The Chinese managed a neat flip on that one.
Business leaders also bear the blame. Think about it. When the first American company moved to China for the cheap labor, and therefore greater profits, it almost forced others to follow suit. And the rest is history. Money was pumped into the Chinese economy and it was used in an accelerated version of catch-up.
Investors who demand high returns constantly. This forces business to find ways to put profits first and the hollowing out of the middle class has followed. Our middle class now has to compete against the. Chinese workers for jobs.
Rich donors who don't want to pay taxes or share their wealth are slowly strangling our country. However, from their lofty, walled, security protected perches it is invisible. They are like leeches sucking all they can from the society and constantly arguing they should get more.
Lastly, expecting the Chinese, or the Russians, to play by the rules is a fool's errand. Doesn't matter whether it is currency manipulation or bases in the South China Sea. To them it's an us versus them, winner take all, game.
5
@JKile
I agree the US oligarchs are the real enemies of the American people.
Perhaps, but this economic showdown that we are experiencing will certainly help to decide this question.
The New York Times loves to take the Chinese side of this game, but even as a Chinese acknowledged, these tariffs will hurt them a lot worse then they will hurt us .
Make no mistake, we are still the mightiest economy and military the world has ever seen, it’s not China, it’s not Russia, it’s the United States .
So everyone who lives here, citizens as they called them selves, can get on the winning side, United States, because these are facts, undisputed facts
4
@Crossing Overhead
You might want to look up the definition of the word 'hubris'.
China's economy has been consistently growing at a faster rate than ours. In the 1980s our GDP was far and away the largest, with Germany and Japan basically tied for a distant second.
About 10 years ago China's GDP surpassed both Germany and Japan's like they were standing still and continues to gain on ours.
Also, while we've been busy spending way too much on our mightiest military, China, has been using that money for research and development to drive their own long term economic growth.
6
Trump plays checkers while everyone else is playing chess.
Actually, he resorts to whack-a-mole when checkers even gets too complicated for him.
7
TRUMP'S PERFORMANCE Is the pinnacle of his abilities as a leader. Which makes them and him laughable. A laughingstock. So while Trump is busy pulverizing any semblance of law and order, leave along democracy, in the US, the Chinese are laughing all the way to the bank. Trump's style of international "relations" are on a par with his unending campaign shtick, where he blows smoke, liberally interspersed with ianities, travialities and cheerleading. Trump is incapable of learning the complexity of negotiating deals. He's only gotten as far as wrecking US alliances, while his campaign promise to get "better deals" for the nation are just so much hot air. A large part of the problem has to do with behaviors that Trump exhibits that suggest he has severe deficiencies in his mind's language, memory and executive functions, along with severe disorientation in the three spheres of reality testing of time, place and person. He confuses 9/11 and 7/11, tweeted that Paris is in Germany and asked votes from people in Florida on 11/28, when election day in 2016 was 11/8. Trump refused daily security briefings, saying that he did not want to hear the same words repeated to him daily for the next 8 years, meaning that he only understands words and brief phrase, but cannot construct context and narrative in his mind. The fact is that in terms of leadership, Trump is far more frightening than humorous. His intellect is a barren space; he has no intellectual curiosity. Trump = WW 3.
6
Another excellent article. He acknowledges that our economic relation with China is “broken,” but rather than take the troglodyte trump fix of “is broke, me fix,” pseudo-analysis, he provides a thoughtful measured analysis. Trump’s approach is laden with a national paranoia that we are being used and that the best way to solve is to come out with guns- a-blazing. This is not the way to fix complex issues, and will only lead to other problems, such as the alienation of our nation in the global community. SAD...
3
You've stated the obvious. It is too late and we'd better join the global club. But we've got a huge anchor dragging behind us - the
abysssmal and willful ignorance of our electorate instilled by years of propaganda. Manifested in the persona of DJT.
7
Every column by Mr. Friedman for the past ten years, has been: "Wow look at China. Look a the tall shiny buildings, look at all the shiny computers and stuff. Their communist government is so much better than ours. So much more efficient. The people are so hard working and smart."
Did you not see the poisonous air that covers almost all of China's cities? Did you not see the desperate poverty of the countryside and the slave laborers in the Foxconn factories? Did you not see the millions of ethnic minorities in "re-education camps"
We are America. Say it loud and say it proud, the next time you are a Tsinghua university, Tom. Or don't bother, because no one listens to you any more.
2
What you say is true, China is an environmental disaster. On the world stage, as a hegemon for power, what Mr. Friedman says is true. To combat both Chinese pollution and economic might, we need a President who is more knowledgeable and smarter than Trump. Throwing away TPP was a huge mistake.
1
Right now, China is pragmatic and patient while the United States is stupid and impulsive, guess who wins in that battle of whits.
137
@Bruce Pippin
To quote the famous intellectual F. Gump "stupid is what stupid does".
1
Which country comes to mind - the United States or China - when you use the following words and phrases?
1. ‘Squander’.
2. “Alienates friends and allies.”
3. “Expanding”
4. “Contracting”
5. “Respected leader”
6. “Rational leadership”
7. “irrational leadership
8. “Improving standard of living”
9. “Impetuous leadership”
10. “Paralyzed by constitutional crisis”
11. “Divided and polarized country”
87
@Larry Mallet Its amazing how the USA is the answer to all the negative phrases. what a contrast from a couple or years, or even a decade ago.
1
I guess Tom didn't hear the isolationist speech Trump gave yesterday and the snickers that UN delegates reacted with upon hearing that speech. As we continue down the road, we are losing real partners, high-quality talent from other countries and the values we historically held. Now we are busy insulting allies, embracing tyrants, separating children from parents and allowing foreign governments to attack our democracy. All these assets he speaks of are deteriorating by the minute under this administration and when he's done with wrecking the house, the respect we used to enjoy on the world stage will be in need of serious repair.
203
@Andy the USA has often "embraced" tyrants when geopolitically advantageous.
@Andy
Can there be any doubt that Trump is furiously working to diminish America in every way he can?
Despite his rhetoric about making America great, he has done everything in his power to make America weak.
We can only speculate on his motivations, but it's hard to believe they are anything but malevolent.
Why would a seemingly patriotic American pursue such a course of action?
It is and will increasingly be all about water - everywhere. Overpopulation, climate change, drought, deforestation, pollution, technology and energy's use and contamination of water: it will be all about water. The privatization of fresh, clean, potable water is already well under way, with increasing taking of waters by corporate giants like Nestle. China, India and the Middle East need water. China has done some monumental construction/dam projects for water, at an environmental cost. One thing America has, still, is abundant fresh, potable water - but no longer so clean. We are poisoning it at a criminal and cavalier rate, allowing its extraction and sale into plastic bottles that further pollute and degrade the environment, mining and fracking and reckless industry - and the blessings of abundant clean water are destroyed. America is a stupid short-sighted country of profiteers and greedy takers. We will all very soon thirst for lost wisdom and mourn our ruined and depleted water. Foolish America will sell its water for profit. China will eventually be able to just take what it wants. This beautiful blue marble Eden - we are not worthy - and now we have the government we deserve, corrupt, stupid, petty, small-minded and mean.
"...We should be doubling down on our strengths: immigration, allies and values. Instead, Trump is squandering them..." [op cit]
--
Trump isn't just "squandering" our strengths. He's *trashing* our strengths! And our assets. And our people. Indeed, Donald Trump is far and away, the best friend our enemies have *ever* had!
—
I also believe Donald Trump is the worst thing that ever happened us—that is, to the America we know. Indeed, it appears as though he was "created from birth," to *ruin* anything and everything precious, that is put in his way.
He is simply digging America's grave. And he fully intends to bury all of us, along with himself I suppose, unless we put a stop to it [constitutionally], now.
—
It should also be noted that, "we the People” are indeed constrained in this matter by our Constitution, but he himself is constrained only by his own fiendish desires.
As President? He is free to do as he pleases, and thus far no-one has dared to stop him.
—
Will someone *please* stop him [constitutionally]?
Now! Before it’s too late.
3
There is some truth that Trump has diminished America on the world stage. But the rest of the planet isn't full of stupid people. They know he is but one man. They know our history, and in some cases they know it better than we do. Hence the laughter at his UN speech. They knew the stupidity of his statements; even as he did not.
I suspect the world is laying back with this recognition and wanting to see what happens come mid-Nov. Is Trump a true aberration, or is he an actual reflection of a change in American soul and character; a coarsening in who we are as a people. They are suspending judgement until they see how we vote.
John~
American Net'Zen
3
Brilliant response to yesterday's UN speech of the laughinstock of the world.
3
Friedman is bang on but unfortunately the USA has been hijacked by a rogue Trump administration which is rapidly squandering all the US's international assets. 90% of Canadians detest Trump and we will NOT sign a SHAFTA deal with his arrogant and bullying administration. Ever. I currently live in China and believe me, China won't back down either. Neither will the EU. Look at how Trump was laughed at by the international community today at the UN. Pathetic. Smarten up America and get back to your traditional values soon. Immigration. Innovation. Fairness and yes, GLOBALISM. Voting matters. American exceptionalism? Meh....
5
Friedman's hubris obscures his ability to take on board the first rule of finance:
If you owe the bank $50,000.00 then they own you.
If you owe the bank $50,000,000,000.00 then you own them.
1
@Objectivist
One of my favorite axioms, but doesn't apply in this case.
Amount of U.S. public debt owned by China as of 1/2018:
$1.17 trillion
(btw, Japan is in 2nd place with 1.07 trillion)
Total estimated wealth in China:
$29 trillion
GDP of China in 2017:
$14 trillion
"Rich China today — its luxury homes, cars, restaurants and hotels — is really rich, rich like most Americans can’t imagine." Part of the reason most Americans "can't imagine" this is that much of the American media including the NYT have studiously avoided covering this story - the story of the increasing wealth of hundreds of millions of Chinese. Several wealth management studies have now found China in fact has a larger middle class than the US. (Middle class here defined as individuals with net assets of between US$50,000 to US$500,000. The gap is something like US 83 million middle class versus China's 97 million. (You can imagine which direction that split is going.) In addition the NYT has been allergic to utilizing any photos of what downtown Beijing and Shanghai really looks like. The photo used here is from Chongqing - a fantastic city but still in China's hierachy it is a "second tier" city. Add to this the fact that using an economy measuring tool "purchasing power parity" that most economists rank as superior to the old sloppy GDP method China's economy is and has been larger than the US for some time you can see all the care that was taken not to "spook the horses". I guess it's time to spook the horses.
6
So, is this the time to invest in China? Would anyone, including Mr. Friedman, care to comment?
Trump - owned by Russia, on his way to being owned by China.
6
China thing you forgot: emperors for life always fail.
USA thing you forgot: you debt will crush you.
Instead Trump wants to Make Coal Great Again
3
I keep hearing about how Trump has done this, and Trump has done that. No, really, why can't people see that Trump is a symptom of a disease that has infected a large swath of White America: Stupidity. When someone gets the measles, do you blame the spots on your face for your sickness or do you blame the virus itself? Or, do you blame the fact that your parents refused to vaccinate you?
2
Superb article, Mr. Friedman! Your analysis of and recommendations for the US-China relationship are "must-reads" for anyone who wants to understand these issues. Hopefully, we'll have someone in the White House soon who can Actually understand these things and act appropriately on them!
2
If you go to the CIA' FACTBOOK and look at the world rankings of countries by the size of their GDP measured at purchasing power parity (this adjusts for the amount a nations currency can buy within its borders) you will notice the Chinese economy surpasses that of America by about 20%. Typically a trade disruptions hurt the smaller party more than the larger economy. Mr. Trump;s trade policies are ill-advised at best, however the overall economic policies implemented during his administration have had a net positive effect. Particularly the reduction in corporate income taxes AND the reduction in regulations. What many people forget or do not recognize is that a regulation is typically a tax, albeit one that is paid in kind rather than dollars. These policies have had substantial positive effects that are offsetting his mercantilist trade policies.
A sobering set of facts to consider in the first quarter of the 21st century. But the die is not yet cast and (presumably/hopefully) we can have strategic, forward-looking leadership in January 2021.
Wealth and material success should not be an end in themselves: they create power with which to lead the world in a more democratic and humane direction. We are not perfect but our values and aspirations seem different and more to my liking than those of China. Someone might want to mention to Trump that he'll not see the second half of this century and that generations depend on him moving from a zero sum, transactional game to a more strategic stance. His desire to win the battle may result in a Pyrrhic victory with limitless costs both now and for decades to come.
1
In addition, we are reducing public funding for research -- both for basic science as well as applied science. That will hurt us in the long run, by which I mean 5-10 years.
7
This century will belong to China. Well, at least that’s a high probability. It also belongs to globalization, broad trade agreements, a transfer of wealth from militarily spending to infrastructure and capital investment, where we actually get something for our money.
Everything Trump stands for moves us in the opposite direction. Hopefully, we will pull out of this wrong headed trajectory. The future cannot be stopped by denying it is happening.
China is the most important potential partner the world has to offer us. At some point, perhaps sooner that we realize, we are going to need them more than they need us.
8
In a world becoming rapidly warmer and more overcrowded, about which some climate scientists are just beginning to say the unthinkable - that warming is now irreversible and represents a looming and imminent global catastrophe, the only sane strategy is to work in harmony to address pressing issues. Yet Trump is entirely zero-sum in his thinking, no doubt the product of a career in cutthroat real estate. Precisely the wrong approach at the worst possible time in history. If I were a believer in prophecy I'd have to conclude this is all somehow pre-ordained. As it is, and as I am, I simply conclude that it is the circle coming full. Earth will survive, life will reemerge after we humans do ourselves in. Maybe that is the way it must be, should be. But other life forms do not deserve us and what we're doing.
6
Mr. Freidman waxes poetic without some key facts. The US produced 108 million metric tons of soybeans, and is the top producer. China imported 35 million metric tons from the US alone primarily to feed to livestock to help keep those 1.4 Billion people fed. China is the fourth largest producer in the world at 12 million tons.
Some unenlightened make the simple statement that China will just produce more....ugh. Don't you think they'd do that already if they could? Wouldn't they have been doing that for decades since the one thing low tech agrarian countries can do is farm? But alas, one needs fertile land to grow things, and there's little of that in China that isn't already being used.
"Although China's agricultural output is the largest in the world, only about 15% of its total land area can be cultivated. China's limited space for farming has been a problem throughout its history, leading to chronic food shortage and famine. "
China imports food because it has to. Sure, it can buy from Argentina or Brazil to avoid tariffs, but the reality is China is simply more likely to buy American Soybeans that have flowed through Argentina or Brazil.
The US doesn't need China, it wants Chinese products. China needs the US food & consumer to employ and feed their people to keep their communist tyrannical government from destabilizing. China is always a long term player and actor, and the long term reality is China needs us way more.
3
@Constance Underfoot
The powerful have always found ways to feed their people. Without being too hyperbolic, I doubt China will sit idle while its people go hungry--hunger leads to revolution--and will perpetrate all manner of economic and physical violence if necessary to improve its access to resources.
3
@Jason Sorry, but that's my point exactly. The desire to win a trade war against the US will be totally secondary to feeding their people and protecting the structure of the existing government. China hasn't always been able to feed their own, they starved, and many of the survivors of those periods of starvation are still alive today. Roughly 15 million starved to death during the famine of 1959-1961, and that's China's estimate.
All China has to do to increase access to resources is to agree to free trade, and some semblance of not stealing intellectual property form others. They'll come around because there is no long term choice not to.
"forcing technology transfers"
I have to disagree here. No one forced American companies to transfer their technology to the Chinese. That they agreed to do so in return for doing business with China was their choice.
12
Thank you, Dr. Friedman. By far the most useful article I have read recently.
Despite a president that seems unaware of our values, the rest of us must continue to celebrate them. Honor and celebrate them gloriously. It has become clear that interference from Russian is designed to eliminate our alliances and to make us believe that we have no workable values. Let’s not let them. We have still a working if imperfect justice system. We still have amazing freedoms. Let’s not let Russia or an unaware president reduce or remove a continuous celebration of our values.
3
And so, fate has set the Thucydites Trap for the US and China.
Sparta feared and fought Athens, will the US fight China?
To escape the trap, much goodwill is required, but sadly, that is lacking.
34
@achana... just read that book myself. Exactly!
You've given us an important lesson, professor. in how the new world order will be established. America's success depends on the three pillars you describe -- and our foolish president is working to pull them all down.
He is truly a Benedict Donald!
6
The USA should compete with China in the same way that American liberals should compete with Trump: with a vision. China has become wealthy and powerful, but who would want to immigrate there and be subject to government repression? China views all who are not ethnic Chinese with suspicion and contempt. What vision of the future can they offer? Increasing military and economic power, certainly, but with a omnipresent state that suppressed individual liberty.
The USA has been the leader of the world, not just the free world, for most of my 67 years. Even our enemies, like Russia and China, had to acknowledge our leadership even as they opposed it. And who would want to immigrate here? Well, millions of people, all pursuing our vision, a vision of opportunity combined with personal liberty, a vision of fairness for all citizens in a diverse society, a vision of a nation governed by the rule of law, not whim, a nation of the people, not a Party. But Donald Trump is systematically destroying that vision in ways that have already damaged our standing in the world and increasingly threaten our leadership.
But those nations don’t get to vote in our elections, though they try to influence them to our detriment. Our citizens get to vote. The GOP vision of our future is obvious - they believe in the destructive Trump vision of a diminished and nasty USA. So, liberals, what is our vision for America? We all know it, so let’s proclaim it loudly and proudly. Let’s put our vision first.
3
Trump is a simpleton, and it takes some very simple arguments to get down to that level. Mr Friedman, the pro Gaza guy, of course points out the obvious of Trump, that he thinks he can "win". No, Trump spent 30 years in business with 2 lawsuits per week, every week, one his suing someone, and one coming in, suing him. Trump thinks he can "disrupt", and "catch off guard" a billion people. Doesn't work that way. Trump may trigger a global economic meltdown, that starts in China. We are a part of that world, and will be adversely effected.
2
"And China’s economy now is so cashless that many women no longer carry purses or men wallets — just a cellphone with mobile apps — to buy anything, or even donate to a beggar." Really Paul? I "donate to a beggar" see what you did there but it's dishonest. China is not India. You rarely if ever see homeless people or beggars in the streets. It's not to say the disadvantaged don't exist in China they do. But they certainly don't manifest as "beggars". Again this is something anyone who has travelled to China can confirm.
5
Values? Ideals? I'm afraid these are virtues and aspirations slipping away from the American Dream. With Trump at the helm and his sycophants sweeping all decency out of the way, we have nothing to offer the world on that front, sadly.
2
We have one glaring handicap that will soon sink us vs China. They have hundreds of millions of citizens who still need to be brought into the economy and higher education, but they will do it. There is no anti-intellectual sub-culture in China. It’s just a matter of resources and time.
But we do gave an anti-intellectual sub-culture that proudly refuses to learn anything except about their exceptionalism. They are currently throwing our elections into the stupid zone. And it looks like we will have to lug them with us as a dead weight in the future — which is the best case scenario.
Yes, we need more immigrants. Because we need more education-eager cultures to outweigh our permanent ignoramus class.
5
Okay. Let's deal with the "values" issue and allies. Even senior US officials and honest academics admit that US foreign policy is not remotely driven by "values" but rather national interests. That's why one of our bestest buddy is a medieval theocratic gender apartheid state that beheads and crucifies students protesting for democracy all while spreading these wonderful "values" around the world. US national interests in foreign policy are basically what used to be described as "what's good for General Motors" or in an even earlier time what's good for the "United Fruit Company" (See the crushing of democracy and socialist movements in Central and South America and if you throw the Doyle company in an illegal coup leading to the take over of the fomerly peaceable kingdom of Hawaii.) For all the bloviating about "democracy promotion" a convenient cover for more meddling the US isn't even a democracy anymore. By clear objective analysis of measures of government policies enacted and who they benefit it is and has been a plutocracy for almost 30 years. So there's the value thing. However their is one value the US still dominates in "greed". If you want to make a fortune and operate in an comofortable environment where you will face almost no demands to share more than a sliver of your gains and whose much touted legal system is designed to protect people like you then "Welcome to America!"
5
How ironic as I read this; I am supposed to teach 8th graders about robotics in Eugene, Oregon and the robot kits (made in China of course) are stuck in customs in Houston. Three weeks of instruction is lost, and it is not hard to see the biggest loser in this dysfunctional Trumpian/Republican world. It is us.
6
The concept of cooperation is totally lost on Trump. Baked into his DNA is the primal urge to crush your opponent--either using fair or foul means---in Trump's case---foul is his preferred course of action. And, in the NYC real estate business---Foul + Roy Cohn = the art of the deal. But Trump is not sitting in Trump tower, he is sitting in the Oval Office where the art of the deal must be transformed into the art of the real---unfortunately for our nation--and especially for his followers waiting for their lost America to return---Trump is incapable, intellectually and emotionally, to grasp the new office is now sits in.
3
How the world has changed. When I was growing up, the US stood out like a beacon in a world that only changed slowly. The US took 150 years to become a world leader from the beginning of the industrial revolution. China did it in 50 and raised the boats of hundreds of million people living in poverty. The world has changed and Trump lives in a time warp of ignorance and bullying. The bully in the school yard was a manipulator, but never an honor student who went on to become a leader. Our president is still that school yard bully and the future of America has been damaged and compromised. The world will never be the same as we endure the inabilities and constant noise caused by this man and the useless and worthless Republican party who cannot see past the end of their noses.
5
Tom,
As usual your comments are on target and crystal clear. But this time your timing is off. Yesterday all the world's leaders laughed at our President. And to his face. All together and all in broad daylight. The world order follows the world's respect. Yesterday they all saw they were together in their disrespect for the person who until yesterday was billed as "the leader of the free world". He no longer is. The class bully was ridiculed in public.
Yesterday the world changed. I look forward to your next column where you enlighten us on the new world order, and possibly identify who now occupies that coveted position.
2
Boy, did mr. friedman lay the facts out here. The most worrisome issue to me is that the republican leadership -as a whole- has completely sold out to the monied folks like the Koch's, etc and to the evangelicals who under the guise of religious freedom are America's version of the Taliban and Isis--women's rights, gay rights and immigration are anathema to them--where is the country i grew up in becoming?
You lost me at “It happens that we have three huge assets that China doesn’t have, and is unlikely to acquire them anytime soon. We should be doubling down on our strengths: immigration, allies and values. Instead, Trump is squandering them.” and here comes the trite and typical Donald Trump smear campaign. Why mask your message with the strength of China. Write an article about the label you put on it. You have insulted the intelligence of your audience. Not amused.
2
What's the old bromide about a picture being worth 1,000 words? The body language in that photo of the 2017 Beijing Xi-Trump meeting says it all.
4
I see that in too many warrens of the US there is an angry demand that we become a white oriented, nativist nation that eschews foreigners and treats allies as threats to our manhood. Unless this trend is repelled the US will become a second rate nation along with the threat of eroding democratic principles.
5
We had a strategic President. TPP would have helped develop alternative markets and suppliers and given the West leverage to strengthen the WTO rather than tear it apart. The WTO needs clear rules and enforcement not abandonment.
Clean water, Pandemic, Global warming, terrorism, nuclear proliferation... can't be solved by China and the US together or separately. These are global problems that impact everyone on the planet. When the US reduces emission standards for cars the result may be that in 10 years a typhoon kills thousands and destroys homes for hundreds of thousand in the Pacific.
Sadly both China and the US have terrible leadership at the moment. The good news is Chinese people admire the USA. That is dissolving quickly and that good will might take a generation to recover.
The President was laughed at during his speech at the UN. The content of his speech shouldn't be laughed at. It should have brought tears of the eyes of Veterans and Patriots across the globe.
1
All great comments.
Before we move on to another shiny/flashy news story of the day, reread this column. I'm guessing we would do better to realize these are facts (like the previous outlooks and facts Mr. Friedman has published in books and columns) today, and it will only become more complicated as the days progress.
As a country, we need to work smarter, and then harder. We are lagging behind in so many areas, too busy fighting among ourselves, too busy blaming, and too busy missing the point of this article.
Reread and share with your friends and family.
1
To the extent that we drive China to accept some of our values and warm to their neighbors, we will make it harder to keep up with them. They will start to attract those people they don't know. If we persist with America First, America Alone, we will ask Russia to make the alliances in Europe and the middle east we have undermined and bring China in for weight. They have the engines in Africa and south America to complement Russia in the Middle East and Eastern Europe to play a very big hand in the world game. We are giving up all the cards with a weak bluff.
1
Guess who owns a good chunk of our debt?
Yeah, China. Followed by Japan, Ireland, then Brazil.
62
@merc I suggest you do some research. China is going broke. They have enormous debt as well.
@merc If China calls in their markers, we will be in default. In other words bankrupt.
US leads China and every other country in the number of lawyers and lawsuits. American businesses are just as focused as the Chinese on trade secrets theft. Which results in massive litigation lasting years and typically ending with inconclusive settlements -- like Apple's battle against Samsung. We waste enormous resources in court instead of concentrating on competitive innovation. We are also under the thumb of a president who seems to spend all day and night ranting on Twitter about his "enemies" and has no talent for reasoned negotiation or regulation. We deserve to lose world dominance.
1
America, long the world’s leader and often its “beacon on a hill” has ceded its leadership to others.
We’ve failed to commit to repairing a crumbling infrastructure, despite this administration’s many proclamations of “infrastructure week”.
We no longer value education. Teachers are grossly underpaid. Text books, in some school districts are 50 years old. Some boards of education eliminate people and places from history books.
Science is debunked and those pushing for upgrading our educational system in some circles are referred to as elitist.
The principal beneficiaries of a tax cut are those whose income rank in the 1% and our political leaders proclaim that a family of four with an extra $37 in their paychecks can start saving for retirement all the while inflation has more than eliminated that $37.
Health care costs are the highest of any developed nation. And the most vulnerable Americans can not afford basic health insurance, and overwhelm emergency rooms; costs of thus are passed on to insurance to those with insurance in tge form of higher premiums.
The list can go on and on,l but not to worry that our country’s leadership in the world is diminished, we can all once again say”merry Christmas” for this administration, while losing the trade war, won the war on Christmas.
6
Great article Mr. Friedman. It is difficult to understand why the American people decided to change course from the values the world has admired for years.
8
A very good piece by Mr. Friedman, but I want to take exception to his idea that defense spending led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Beatles, and Rock and Roll, Sony Walkman, split level ranch homes, Corvettes and Jaguars, Levis. All the things that a free world allows simple citizens to have. Well, most anyway. The Soviet Union's control of their economy, and peoples thought and expression weakened them to the point of collapse. Under the control of Putin, Russia is headed in the same direction.
3
@Michael
Exactly, and it didn't hurt that FDR's policies set the stage for the growth of the largest and most prosperous middle class the world had ever seen. Don't think that a refrigerator, washer-dryer and two cars in every garage didn't go unnoticed by those waiting in line for bread 'back in the USSR'.
Of course these days 40 years of guerilla warfare on the middle class by the GOP, with a bit of help from the Dems, has the average American living paycheck to paycheck, and one serious medical issue away from bankruptcy. Not exactly the envy of anyone anymore.
It is not about us versus them, the U.S. versus China. Successful 21st century leadership, as in prior times, is about abiding by fair play, living within an established and trusted set of rules plus fair and honorable treatment of all, regardless of their nationality. China can and in the near future will be just as, if not more accommodating to others as was the U.S. prior to the current administration. Accommodation, respect for all and reliable, fair rules of the road attract not only highly principled people but ideas and with that comes long term economic and societal gains.
3
Forget about China. We have a bigger crisis at home. Why is this mid term election so important? One of the biggest reasons is that all the elected Republican officials including both senators and congressional delegates can do nothing to stop Trump's irrational and unpredictable ideas and statements. It is incredible that a president can act like a king demanding whatever he likes or desires in a democratic society. Under his leadership if it ever exists, our democracy turns into a popularism. America becomes no difference from China except they are on its way up and we the opposite direction.
10
I just watched a brilliant MD move back to Canada because she couldn’t get a green card to live here. She’s full fledge, completed her fellowship and left although she wanted to stay. Good luck to us all.
195
So much of what you write about here, Thomas, is contingent upon the intelligence of leaders and their ability to be forward thinking.
Hopefully at this point in the Trump era, Americans have realized that our President is not at all a student or a learner.The Chinese value education and are a nation of forever students. Our leader bases all his policies on what his beliefs were back in 1980, as they have not changed and he is not willing to study, learn, and change to meet the demands of a 21st century world.
We are being left in the dust; and it is truly our leaders' fault for their failure to evolve and grow. We cannot teach an old dog new tricks.
5
@Kate China didn’t get to this position during the Trump presidency. China has passed us by in the era of over regulation and over spending of government that has allowed China in 20 years to get where they are.
Trump is the only president that has actually done something different than the beliefs that have been choking out country since 1980. Please tell us what did the last few of Trump’s predecessors do to fix the problem.
Talking points, so-called modern strategy and nice words are not the solution. The solution is action.
You’re obviously young, and I think you have a lot to learn.
@A Voice in the Crowd, nope, not young, and have three Masters degrees. Possess great critical thinking skills.
It has been reported previously ( Bob Woodward’s reporting...and don't say we shouldn’t believe him. The man is a Pulitzer winner in Journalism), that Trump’s beliefs are based on his opinions from over 30 years ago and when confronted by evidence FROM HIS STAFF that is contrary, he says it is wrong and refuses to consider it or change his mind. The man is never wrong, nor can he admit a mistake.
Its easy to find fault with Trump and Trump does himself no favors by his boorish behavior. However he has to be given credit for calling out China as a rival and an economic predator. Trade should be between like minded countries on the same side of the fence and not between countries where the objective for one is to use trade to attain global dominance and colonization of every other smaller nation. Forcing our companies to relocate from China is correct policy - why would we send them our money only to have them rule us? However for Trump to not distinguish between China and Canada/Mexico is foolish. I only hope that some nuance comes into Trump's thinking but more importantly that the American public never forgets that China is an enemy of the US, no matter how sweet their words or their smiles.
I’m not sure I see how Chinese economic power is being used differently from US economic power. We sought and largely obtained worldwide domination through both our military might and our huge national economy. Our corporations have been encouraged to project our power around the world. Between our military presence and our commercial presence, we are in far more countries around the world than China.
It’s completely unsurprising that they seek to project their power internationally just as we have. I wouldn’t criticize their objectives - they’re largely the same as ours. I would criticizes their means. But to critics their means, we need to make sure that our means remain different. With Trump in office, it’s not obvious that will continue to be true. Just as China puts China first in its exploitative international relationships, Trump declares America must be first, not our principles. In fact, Trump has declared open war on those principles, the principles of Liberal democracy, the principles found in our Constitution. Under Trump, we are less and less different from China. That cannot work to our favor internationally and it has already reduced our standing in the world.
China has big companies only because they don't allow US companies to operate there. They steal the ideas - Chinese Amazon, Chinese Facebook, Chinese Google - and unleash them on their own huge population - with the "appropriate" censorship. This model is unsustainable. Trump is wrong on many, many things, but not on China trade.
@Anthony I agree, Anthony. Most of what Trump's about I abhor. And his policies are, in my view, wrong-headed. But the China piece may well be exactly right. North Korea, too.
Fear not, we have Donald Trump, Larry Kudlow and John Bolton governing our nation. Some would call them the three stooges but this is no comedy. Kudlow has advocated tax cuts for years but now that we have it, he now advocates cuts in entitlements. His supply side "economics" never worked. Bolton is scary. He is a modern day Dr. Strangelove. Trump has too many faults to cite from his numerous lies, attention deficit and unwillingness to listen to opposing positions.
12
Although The US will start its political turnaround in November, we wont get rid of Trump until Nov. 2020.
But we can't get rid of the people that voted for Trump or refuse to move forward. Modernity is always on our doorstep and it needs to be understood and not rejected.
The biggest problem is the evangelicals (the US version of Islamic fundamentalists). They are anti-women, anti science and that just is not be good for anyone.
14
Mr. Friedman has put his finger on one of our nation's biggest challenges. For those commenters who think this is US hate, or tell us that China has a long way to go, they are deluded by the fact that China is only 1/5th completed. We are 4/5th's completed. But his points about trying to contain China, and by default have a war (trade or otherwise) is absolutely futile. In a future world, China will be a larger economy than ours, and they will be able to equal or surpass our Technology by mass action. Even today China's trade accounts for about 18.5% of its GDP so it will grow despite trade restricitions. And the future will depend on our "Entanglement" with China, and becoming world partners for a better world, either on our template or on some unknown Chinese template. And that is the strategic vision we need. Remember the British Empire, that we inherited, or stole/purloined by stealing tech? Britain didn't have the mass that we did, yet we remain allies in our vision.
Mr. Friedman also very succinctly describes our strengths that Trump wants to waste.
5
With Trump in power, and his style drawing in more and more “simplifiers”, soon it will be also “too late” to even use attractiveness to immigrants, alliances or American values as strategic enablers. The current speed of erosion of these three even surpasses that of the melting of the ice sheet in Antarctica.
10
"We won the Cold War with a strategy of containment and bankrupting the Soviet Union by outspending the Kremlin on defense."
The Soviet economy collapsed largely due to the falling price of oil. as Thomas Freidman pointed out in the past.
In my family we kept children in India from starving. And Allan Sherman got fat keeping children in Europe from starving.
1
Hey, Trump's pushing coal. Coal, coal, coal.
What else do you need to know?
6
Bravo, Bravo, Mr. Friedman,
with people of your thoughts, America WILL be again the lighthouse for the world. Thank you for your essay.
Frank
2
There's a lot of the world other than U.S. and China. And companies are fighting to get their Iphones in the hands of all populations (they call them markets.) This raises profit above the people's privacy and dignity and ability to choose their own rules.
We should cooperate with China and the rest of the world in defining new international rules that honor the people of each country, and stop this zero sum attitude of winners and losers.
9
Of course Trump is incapable of grasping a strategic plan to compete, but there are political realities regarding immigration and "talent" that you are not considering. Americans resent educated immigrants as much as their working class counterparts with good reason. We have a thriving technology sector run in many cases by immigrants, but look at the cost. In so many instances, these companies have simply used the smoke and mirrors of 'tech' to grift industries that used to employ Americans in a fair way, subject to sensible regulation. This is not 'American values,' it's destruction and a recipe for alienation. It's led to Uber destroying the taxi market, Amazon creating a retail cartel that puts thousands out of work, and where will it end? All these companies are long overdue for being broken up, like ATT was.
More cogent in your piece is that America must learn to REGULATE, to set rules, and to enforce them. The loss of the muscular Federal role for keeping ahead of new technology and adapting regulations has allowed corruption and opportunism to run rampant and degrade the US and its working people. If we don't demand that newcomers, no matter how brilliant, assimilate into the American values of fairness and rule of law, who cares whether we can compete with China or not? We'll be destroyed as a society anyway. We're close to it now. If we lose the very qualities we admire in ourselves, we might as well be Chinese as anything else. This is where we'll lose the war.
@Jack Last time I looked, Uber and Amazon were founded by Americans and not immigrants. They are dominant because they offer services which are far superior to the legacies. Furthermore, Americans tend not to be interested in studying Engineering or Computer Science. Shutting out educated immigrants would be a huge mistake and pretty soon, America would wind up having zero companies in the top 20 in Technology. Is that going to make America great again?
5
@Jack Markets and industry are over regulated now, which is why the rest of the world is passing us by.
Regulation is not an American value. Opportunism and corruption don’t go hand in hand and opprtunitism is what allows for the innovation that lifts all of society.
The tech companies you mentioned employ many millions more than the over-regulated and staid companies they’ve replaced and all of society is better off for it, which is why China is where they are today.
We need to get back to the truly American idea of freedom to grow and innovate, untethered from the soulless institution of government overregulation.
@A Voice in the Crowd
I suggest you take a look at American history regarding when and how we had a healthy middle class. Regulation most certainly is an American value, anti-trust law as well, and if you think regulations are anti-market you're wrong again. People in the markets want consistent fair regulation so that they can make long term decisions regarding investment. Regulations don't need to choke productivity, but when you have new companies slipping through loopholes in existing regulation, it needs to be updated. There's nothing soulless about it. The pursuit of money with no consideration for how your work affects people's lives, on the other hand, seems pretty soulless to me. Good luck with that.
As Trump so aptly demonstrated before the UN, America has become a joke. We have traded our values for the handful of beans that is Donald Trump. At a time when we need to most astute strategic thinking, we have a president that only thinks of himself. Thinking only of himself, Trump will continue to lead us down a path of backward evolution into the second Dark Ages as China forges ahead. However, in the near future, we will program the human mind in the computer, and this program will be based on a "survival" algorithm. Then we will see how we have confused our survival program with our ridiculous beliefs about just what is supposed to survive, causing all manner of mischief. When we see this, we can begin the long trek back to reason and sanity. See RevolutionOfReason.com
3
Again Tom, you’ve given us a lot of “food” for thought! Throughout time, which could date to a million years, no empire has lasted that lost its values. One advantage I have in turning 80 in two weeks is experience. In my short lifetime, I remember WW2. I remember a true middle-class, meaning a few very rich people and some poverty, but the rest of us seemed equal financially.
As I grew older, things began to change economically around the country. We were recognized as “The Leader’s of the Free World.” How proud we were. In the 60’s, things began to change rapidly. I became part of the so-called Peace Movement. I really believed at the time that we could stop war forever. Give Peace a Chance became our Matrox. We were the worlds leader! Almost everyone wanted to come to The United States.
Fast forward to today. This isn’t the United States that my parents and grandparents fault for. Today, we’ve become a country of greed and lost values. The void of Truth, Beauty and Goodness has been replaced with the likes of people like Trump and the spineless Republican Party. Is this statement too harsh for the reader? Good! Prove me wrong in November! I’m praying for that!
8
@Eric Cosh We proved you wrong in 2016.
Arguably, the culture in the 60’s wasn’t what your grandparents fought for either, but you embraced its ideology.
Trump generation is a return to values before the 60’s cultural revolution, and no doubt there will be many more revolutions and cultural revolutions in time ahead.
Great article! Great writer!!
2
Friedman's never-ending focus on money and the economy is exhausting. Where does one want to live? In China, where the prevailing ethos is "work work work, lie lie lie, cheat cheat cheat", and where there is little art, music, or spirited disagreement? It's not just "high IQ" or "high value" people who want to live and work in the United States. Gallup estimates that 150 million people from every corner of the Earth would move to America if they could. Now, America is not a Nordic socialist wonderland, but we still treat our poor far better than China.
My point is that China may have a huge economy with a lot of wealth, but they most certainly do not have it all figured out. They have to work on corruption, rule of law, freedom of speech, and oh yeah, pollution, not bullying neighboring countries or stealing intellectual property, and on and on and on. America's problems are much more manageable ... especially with Trump out of office.
2
@Justin
Hey, so... there's plenty of art and music in China. It might not be your thing, but have you ever attended the opera in Chengdu? Gone to Beijing's 798 district and seen a giant toothy bus sculpture? Had train workers come up to you to ask what it's like to vote? Beijingers are actually well known for their love of political debate. Sure there's lots of corruption, but beware slipping into the complacency and simplicity of the "yellow peril" narrative. China is a huge, complicated, lovely and terrible place, filled with real live humans who love and hate and create. Just like everywhere else.
3
Tom,
I
Am a big fan of yours but I think you have got this one half right. Not sure the Chinese want to be our allies in creating a new world
Order.
Secondly, we have to all realize that globalization has created massive inequalities in the United States. Why? Because those good paying middle class jobs flowed from our shores to the shores of cheaper labor. What resulted has really been the hitting of most of what we knew as middle class jobs.
Now we cannot all week each other beer and burgers in the new world order because we won’t have the money to do so. Secondly, we all cannot be coders or masters of AI. So what do we tell normal folk to do afor a job?
That is the real challenge now before us which is creating opportunity for everyone
52
@Dante And that's where I think everyday Americans have been misled - by both parties, and more. Everyone's carped about their favorite problem (whatever that might be - immigration, border, health, etc.) but no one's actually told the hard working middle class that they do have options.
Yes, not everyone is a coder or an AI scientist - and not everyone needs to be. Rather than spending billions propping up or tearing down governments, investing them in high speed rail projects will both generate employment as well as provide connectivity and greater exchange of ideas. Not to mention, it will greatly alleviate the housing burden as well as price inequality plaguing areas like greater NYC and San Francisco. Investing in solar and wind farms, in a diversity of crops rather than just soy and corn, in redeveloping our tunnels and bridges, in education and educating will all yield benefits. Of course, it will need upskilling and a fraction of the workforce may suffer, but the society as a whole will benefit massively..
China is where it is because it puts the collective over the individual (we can argue about the means to do so). I am not arguing for socialism or communism, but by focusing on what's collectively beneficial in the short and long terms, we can generate much more employment than just for coders and AI scientists.
5
@Dante
Education, education, education.
2
@Dante - You're right, we need to find work for those people displaced by the global economy and unable to find equally well-paid work. The answer isn't to look backward to coal mining, sewing or forging steel.
How about clean energy, another area where China is investing heavily? Infrastructure and rapid transit modernization? More middle-class housing? To accelerate these projects, we need the government to lead and help fund at least initially. What we don't need is more aircraft carriers.
2
An excellent assessment of the short term tragedy that is Trump and the larger long term tragedy that is the GOP. I can't believe that I, a New Deal liberal, find myself wishing for the good old days of Goldwater and Nixon.
3
Globalization has served us and the World well, yet it is under attack by the Trumpists. They see an improving economy and think Trump’s policies of isolationism and tearing down of global institutions is working. Imagine having to start a campfire with wet wood and damp matches. After many difficult tries, the fire is burning nicely. Then, one of the onlookers runs over and dumps a can of gas on the fire, causing it to flare up. Taking credit for building the fire, the onlookers believe him. This is where we are, and nothing short of an economic calamity is going to shake their belief. Until then, we are heading down a very dangerous path.
5
What would a desirable and realistic victory over China actually look like? I'm no isolationist, but is seamless and ubiquitous engagement with China the answer? There are a lot more Chinese in China than in the US. Who will change whom more? And I'm not thinking about enriching American society with the healthy mix of diversity that is a good thing? What Trump is doing is not the solution. Engagement with the rest of the world and long-term strategic thinking and investment seems right, combined only with strategically wise, measured and directed engagement with China. The sheer number of Chinese requires the US to think of them differently. Unrestrained and all encompassing engagement is no panacea and is likely to have many an unintended adverse consequence, even if the thought of Platonic open borders and an open society seems, at some level, an attractive thing.
1
We're number two, or maybe three if the European Union gets it act together. How about number four if South America forms an economic union.
Tom Friedman says we stand for things "or used to stand for things." Well maybe we did when Barack Obama was President. Now the people, or the Electoral College elected Trump and we no longer stand for decency, justice, inclusion or even peace. We are the biggest and the best at something and for Trump and his adoring base that seems to be just fine.
The only problem is that we are the biggest and the best at things that no longer matter much. The Great Realignment in the World has begun. It is time for "America: The Farewell Tour" as Chris Hedges describes so thoroughly in his new book.
10
@Marvin Raps This isn't about President Obama vs Trump. Yes, 45th is a disaster, but China's investment and payback was in full flow even during and before Obama era. What was worth noting - and looking at ISIS you can argue it was probably not as effective as it could have been - is that there was a will to spend more in house and less off shore. We can print currency but if we're not generating much of value, it doesn't matter. Keeping the population healthy (including, in the reproductive sense) and educated is the way to realize long term value. That requires an up front spend. Unfortunately, the current administration has judicial, education and EPA heads devoted to ensuring the exact opposite.
wait till the 45th gets a new 4-yr term. it'll be... fun.
About 150 years ago, the US was stealing ideas from the UK. Eventually, the US learned how to develop its own steel, ship and then tech industry. The same is happening in China. Trump's downtalking China ignores the past US industrial history. Sad. Bigly.
How to compete? Reemphasize tech jobs, and deemphasize financial jobs. The index funds still outperform the active management funds. But the US government needs to start spending on science and technology again. The spending in the 1950s led to digital computers, the internet and our present status. We are living off the past and need to invest in the future. Now.
18
@toom: Trump took renewable energy off the fast track. That's where all the technological urgency lies.
7
Tom, I must admit I’m conflicted, especially after listening to our Presidents speech yesterday at the UN. He laid out a non-globalist argument promoting nationalism and everyone looking out for themself - with a dose of “might makes right”.
As you know, September is the month when arctic sea ice reaches it’s minimum. Take a look at the data, its easy to find. Scientists are working hard to understand the complectiy of the earths natural systems and teasing out cause and effect, feedback and amplifications in our climate. Note the effects we are already seeing in our weather.
It’s looking increasingly obvious that in as little as 10 years nobody will care where the biggest companies are, or the status of trade. Too many of us, and by us I mean everyone, will be too busy looking after ourselves, on a very basic level, and that it will be clear that all that wealth that trade created was temporary and fleeting.
The obvious response to our President is laughter, the deeper emotional response is dispair.
21
As the Economist's latest edition points out, Trump's tariffs on China have several goals, "some of them unachievable." Most unachievable of all is Trump's desire to reverse the trade deficit. "The goal of rolling back decades of American deindustrialization is a pipe dream," says the Economist. "Should America succeed in forcing supply chains back onshore, it will find that many fewer jobs are attached because of rapid automation and productivity growth. Besides, the lowest-skilled jobs would not go to America but to low-wage Asian countries like Vietnam."
13
@ChristyThe Economist isn’t exactly impartial.
Values II: If we are talking a "values" competition with China we'd better start figuring out how current US values of self indulgence and rejection of science match up against the Chinese values of education, hard work and family. And let's not raise the canard of "creativity" in the hard sciences and technology China is demonstrating plenty of that.
20
"We have to respond. But wisely."
Never going to happen under Trump.
11/06/18.
Vote.
22
constant intimidation breeds fear
indoctrination breeds guilt
america has done quite well using these two tactics against it's own population. november is right around the corner. please vote for sanity please.
10
“Immigration, allies and values”—three things Mr. Friedman says give us a leg up on China. Perhaps, Tom, you should send a copy of your column to not only our Dear Leader, but also Bolton, Navarro, Lighthizer, Miller, Kushner, Mattis and Pompeo—his foreign policy “dream team”.
What made immigration, allies and values assets to the U.S. is that they were viewed as immutable and unchangeable from decade to decade, Congress to Congress, President to President. Trump and his advisors have not just “squandered” those assets, as Tom says. They have taken a match to them and danced as they burned.
Our immigration policy now consists of Stephen Miller doing everything in his power to keep anybody with brown skin out and deporting as many as possible. When it comes to immigration, his dream is that we become Japan.
Allies? Who in the world leadership community trusts this Administration or anything they say, especially when any conversation or promise can be undone with a midnight tweet? Maybe Benjamin Netanyahu. After that, I cannot think of another.
Values? Apparently America now stands for money above all else, and taking as much as we can. You’re our friend as long as you kiss our ring and do whatever we tell you. We like and glorify despots who starve their people, deprive them of human rights and jail their political opponents.
What is sadder still is that at least 40% of the country voted for this. So, Tom, if 40% of the country does not view these as values, are they?
27
Is today's column by Friedman about the US v China (aka us v them) a joke? Because it definitely reads like one.
First, Friedman's opening quip is off. The shaming about not finishing your food and hunger was more often about starving children in Africa, not in China. Same as it still is.
The rest of Friedman's column reads as if it were written in the 1980's. Just substitute "Japan" for "China" and that was the hand wringing rage back then. Remember Pebble Beach golf course? US film studios? The Walkman? Rockefeller Center? Ah, memories!
Then, yes China has some very rich people and even a very large swathe of moderately rich people. You know, the ones Friedman will only see as he moves in elite circles in the hermetically sealed bubbles of Shanghai and Beijing. Yet, there are still massive numbers of Chinese living in poverty - likely not starving - at least equal to the population of the US.
Then, Friedman's whole economic argument is so focused on the top of the pyramid. Yet again, just like wealth, China's economy is more akin to a church spire. That is, there is a pinnacle of very successful companies and then it precipitously narrows to a squat base of an export economy. Hardly the foundation of a well rounded economy.
And lets not get in to human rights, freedoms, environmental matters, etc. all of which still make China a 3rd world nation.
No, Tom, when it comes to China, the President is more spot on than you are with your antiquated, elitist world view.
2
@Common Sense
None of your "arguments" deny that China is a steam rolling behemoth that is best dealt with by entanglement not head bashing isolationism. BTW, our family referred to starving children in India.
2
@Common Sense I hope you see the sheer irony of your comment here:
"And lets not get in to human rights, freedoms, environmental matters, etc."
Why should we want Chinese students coming here? How many end up staying and becoming citizens, versus how many return home with the knowledge they've learned in American universities?
There are one hundred thousand Chinese students on our campuses. For the most part, the only one who benefits are the universities charging them full tuition. It doesn't benefit our students, interacting with Chinese studying STEM fields who barely speak English wasn't much fun thirty years ago at Columbia.
We're at war with China for economic dominance in the next century, they've clearly been saying as much for years, and their foreign students are just one more weapon they're utilizing. Let them build their own universities. Do you think China will let them all emigrate here, or allow us only to siphon off their best and brightest? Why is this multi-culturalism always a one-way express lane?
4
@drdeanster I believe Friedman is specifically referring to outstanding students from the rest of the world, not just China.
As to your experiences thirty years ago, the Chinese students of today are much more worldly and better prepared both linguistically and socially to interact with American students. And because they work so hard, they often outperform Americans, particularly American males.
If you're concerned about American dominance, don't be. America elected Donald Trump, it is obviously incapable of continuing its global leadership role.
23
@drdeanster
I just retired from a large semiconductor company. During my time there I had two Chinese supervisors. Both had come to the US for school and stayed. They were some of the smartest and best people I knew and our country is much better for it. By the way, I found their command of English to be on the whole better than the average American which I realize isn't setting the bar very high.
187
@drdeanster In 30 years, they've gone from not being fun to interact with, to being the #1 consumers of high-priced fashion goods and accessories, even within the US. Yes, language is a barrier, and their success has been despite their lack of familiarity with English as a first language, not because of it.
Also, why can't we keep them back? if they're really good, why can't we give them the comfort of knowing that they will not be discriminated against based on their language or skin color? That they won't get the proverbial knock on the door and have to pack up and leave at a moment's notice? And as the other response points out, it's not just China. Indians suffer the same fate (who's the largest population of medical practitioners in US outside of original citizens?).
If we stop shooting them in Kansas and stop locking them in jobs through fear of deportation and not let our prejudices from 30 years ago stop us from seeing their real contributions to local economy and society, I think we stand a decent enough chance of making use of their skills, ingenuity and desire to be given a fair chance.
11
The one great advantage China has that America has apparently lost is a government that does not enact faith-based legislation or lay claim to divine origin.
15
@Steve Bolger Tell that to Tibet or the Islamic minority. I’m sure they would share their opinion if it were tolerated.
And that's the way it is. Well said.
5
Trump got laughed out of the UN today because he totally forgot he wasn't addressing one of his pep rallies or the sock puppets on the set of Fox. That had to hurt.
22
Mr. Trump and others, including Mr. Friedman, keep saying that China has stolen US intellectual properties (IPs). But how, Mr. Friedman? Kindly provide a concrete example and please stop regurgitating whatever Mr. Trump says.
When US high-tech companies go to China and set up factories to take advantage of cheap labor there, they have no choice but to train Chinese engineers on their products' underlying technologies. This is one way that Chinese get access to US companies' IPs. But that is not Chinese fault; this is the price the US companies pay for using cheap Chinese labor.
Another scenario is when US-educated Chinese students are hired by US companies and, in their work, they learn some companies' technical practices. And, after some years, they go back to China and set up their own companies. Again, this is not Chinese fault. And this needs to be balanced by many highly-valued Chinese employees who have made, and are making, substantial contributions to products of their companies. So, at the end, that is a trade off. These companies lose some, but quite often win many.
And, of course, IPs can be stolen by Chinese hackers hacking US companies' computers. But then the US has the largest and most advanced army of hackers. And we know, for many decades it has been hacking computers of not only its enemies but also its friends (remember NSA's hacking of Germans?). US can bully many countries, telling them: do what I say, not what I do; but China is not one of them.
8
Trump bungled away his father’s wealth. Now he’s bungling away our shared wealth in the same way.
11
@JMJackson Except for what he (and his family/mob) hoard for themselves.
Of course for Trump, it's not about China. It's about him. I'm sorry, HIM.
10
Sometimes things can be boiled down to “Everthing I need to know I learnd in kindergarten”
Treating people with respect.
Being kind.
Cleaning up your mess.
But the man in the white house never learned these lessons. He prefers bullying, intimidation, threats, humiliating others, and fear mongering.
His approach to world affairs will fail because these techniques never work in the long run. Any gains are temporary, and always engender anger and distrust from your adversary, who is then motivated to seek revenge. The dysfunction continues.
Contrary to his self promoted image, Trump is an awful negotiator because he lacks the basic emotional intelligence to build and sustain trusting and mutually beneficial relationships.
Unfortunately, his failures will affect us all.
10
@Space needle Give the 45th a break - he only got a million bucks from his dad. How much do you expect him to learn and do with that measly allowance? I bet you kindergarten education in some places in the US costs more than that these days....
And his mode of “conflict resolution” is to hit them back, but twice as hard.
The U.S. in competition with China?
Philosophically it's going to get ugly. Advances in science, computation, need to keep an economy aloft, are going to lead directly to the question of what is degeneration in the individual member of society and the society as a whole and how a society can not only prevent degeneration but keep developing beyond itself.
Basic biology reveals that the more a species gains an advantage over its environment the more it sprawls, puts out genetic variations on itself which can be anything from sheer harmful mutation to rare and valuable and never before seen talent. The question for a species such as the human, which gains incredible advantage over its environment, is how it can keep increasing advantage while keeping degeneration to a minimum.
So many of our racial, sex preference, class divisions (stupid poor vs. silver spoon, entitled wealthy), health questions, etc. arguably are the problem of degeneration of individual and society in disguise, and the problem of degeneration and the questions it raises is perhaps one of the most sensitive questions in the world. But it's an unavoidable question for a species which constantly seeks to increase its advantage over all other life forms.
Put into religious/metaphysical terms the problem of degeneration can be put thusly: How has God in all his power, all his capacity to allow himself to degenerate, prevented himself from degenerating over time, kept himself in fullness of supreme ability?
@Daniel12 good point but your conclusion might hold the answer. Maybe there is no creator that sits outside the universe, that unseen mover you might be referring to. Maybe faith should be changed to ethics and morality as defined by Ronald Dworkin, and any specific god(s) should be confined to the kitchen or home sanctuary?
1
I would listen to Gordon Chang, regarding China, not Mr Friedman.
https://twitter.com/GordonGChang
And you can see how Friedman has succumbed to the current mileu- his list of American values omits the most foundational, and hopefully eternal American value, LIBERTY.
"Finally, as a society, we stand for things — or at least we used to stand for things — values people admire, about the dignity of human beings, the rights of minorities and women and the virtues of freedom and the rules for fair play."
@ComradeBrezhnev: The US is so linguistically befuddled that its ostensible proponents of liberty treat liberals as their worst enemies.
Our only real asset is our democracy and the Trump phenomenon has shown us the sorry state it is in. When or if we manage to find it , we will have no problem competing with China. But it is like Dorothy’s shoes something we have discover for ourselves but Trump and his ilk are not the good witches they insist they are
"At the same time, China is producing far more engineers and scientists than the U.S., and their quality is steadily rising."
– Thomas Friedman
Yeah, but America has thousands and thousands of gender studies graduates, not to mention those who majored in illustrated novels and conflict resolution. I bet China doesn't even have one. So there.
5
I honestly don’t understand how any intelligent American can favor the rigid totalitarianism of Chinese communism over the flexible freedom of the United States economic model. Worse, only someone blinded by prejudice would not understand that it is the openness of our society that gives us our greatest competitive advanGr over centralized state control of everything
@Ted Peters Just look at today's Republican party to understand how any intelligent American can succumb to demagoguery and authoritarian control.
2
In my opinion, the decline of the USA as a nation will be caused by basing success on consumption, -for worshiping the golden calf-
3
What you say is so true, so obvious to anyone with average intelligence and a reasonable education. It’s all about the mid terms: we have to put a brake on this self destructive madness.
2
Relying on cheap goods from China is acting the same as The Manchester textile mills did in buying plantation slave raised cotton in the civil war era. You don’t mention the morality of buying goods made on the misery of others .Maybe Trump inadvertently is the moral hero here.. like in Mexico under the new deal autoworker s will get 16$ in Mexico rather than 9. I been to China and toured foundries. It’s not pretty. You of all people didn’t even touched on this aspect. Walmart exists on the misery of millions
2
@Joe Vellano re slave economy, we have it too. Look at the prison system and now we are forcing those immigrants held in pens waiting to be shipped out. I do have a modest proposal, the children separated from their parents should be forced to work in factories to pay for their care.
1
@Rick Tornello
"A Modest proposal". very good comment, I'm still laughing.
@Joe Vellano The Martin Luther King Memorial was built by slave labor in China.
The US no longer values hard work, education, infrastructure and rules. The reality-TV-obsessed US values short-cuts, lazy thinking, trading paper, and pushing money to our oligarchs. The US views educated people as elitists to be mocked. We view investments in education and infrastructure as government waste. Traditional military might means nothing in the face of terror plots and cyber warfare. We elevated a lazy, short-sighted, undisciplined, barely-literate baby-man to lead us. Let us not be surprised when China passes us in fewer than 5 years.
9
Hurrah for liberal internationalism.
2
When a leader fails to lead it leads the former leading nation (US) into a tailspin by squandering all the advantages it has.
No wonder this fool was laughed at during the UN session. It’s clear as day he’s willfully and stubbornly ignorant, just like the inner child he presents as. Next time ( if he makes it that far past Nov 6th), it won’t be the humility or embarrassment of a stiff electoral rout that will change his tune ( he can’t as he’s a one sour note puss) but the walking out of the room of many of the representatives of other countries that refuse to be bullied and insulted by the dumbest person to be in charge of the second largest economy in the world (and sinking).
Then he’ll walk away from it all with a few more shekels in his pocket, with no place to spend them. Thank you GOP .Thank you trumpistas . We’ll cry for you Ameerica.
2
"China can’t attract the best and brightest Indian, Israeli, Arab, French, Brazilian and Korean immigrants, but we still can." Wrong. China actually is quite attractive to leading edge scientists and researchers. China has had significant success recently in drawing these sorts of people to China. At first, it was just the Chinese overseas population and students educated abroad who started piling back into China. Now it's all sorts of people from all over - including Japan for Heaven's sake- who wants to do cutting edge research. How is China doing it? Same way they are doing so much else -- with lots of money. China's R&D spending is rising twice as fast as its economic growth. New policies in place since about 2017 offer top scientists and researchers from around the world deals to fund their research they can get nowhere else in the world and opportunities to work on imagination capturing major projects of the type the West gave up on a generation ago (See China's recent successful work on teleportation of atomic particles). Both China's city governments and the Chinese national government are offering excellent programs and support. This includes offering university research environments that essentially operate in English - the current language of science These policies are already seeing significant success and they will see more.
6
@Belasco
intrigued...…..sources?
America First = America Alone
5
Wait, China, is Skynet?
Well said Mr. Friedman
2
Oh that Trump could read and understand this article by tom Friedman!!! Unfortunately he can't and is doin all the thins that are destroyin America's leadership.
2
The Deplorables who voted for this guy Trump and the Democrats who stupidly took Middle America for granted had better wise up. At the rate we’re going, America will become a 2nd class power within most of our lifetimes. As a people, we have gotten lazy and take too many things for granted.
3
"And China’s economy now is so cashless that many women no longer carry purses or men wallets — just a cellphone with mobile apps — to buy anything, or even donate to a beggar."
Just remember that the inherent creepiness of a swipe-away-your-browsing-history-and-photos-oh-and-those-precious-contacts-to-pay economy—already absurdly high here in surveillance-rich, soon-to-be-creepy-cashierless-store-rich USA—colossally magnifies in not-Communist corporate-authoritarian China, where one false word or furtive movement against president-for-life xi will get you disappeared.
To their (social) credit, at least you'll get disappeared whether you're Joe Schmo or Fan Bingbing. Here, cash is not just king, but garlic, just as much decider of caste as repellent for regulator or thug-cop vampires. Our businesses, each one a Smaug in legal-entity form with a pitifully-taxed hoard to match, answer laws with laughter, lobbyists, and a heavy topcoat of fresh homemade sewage.
Over there, under xi, you can rest assured that anyone and everyone is a target for human rights loss and violations, and every bit of international water a target for conquest and possession. Yay!
1
Talent, Allies and Values' are, of course, what would set us free. Trouble is, we have a brutus ignoramus at the helm who thinks they are just 'fake news' deserving to be dumped. China is, amid the trampling of human rights and still with prominent rural poverty, a power to be reckoned with, and that deserves to be watched carefully...before it swallows us up...and Trump to eat his careless words about dominance.
1
@manfred marcus
I believe this is right - according to the World Bank, in 1990, there was 755 million Chinese living in extreme poverty. In 2015, there was 10 million.
"China can’t attract the best and brightest Indian, Israeli, Arab, French, Brazilian and Korean immigrants, but we still can." Wrong. China actually is quite attractive to leading edge scientists and researchers. China has had significant success recently in drawing these sorts of people to China. At first, it was just the Chinese overseas population and students educated abroad who started piling back into China. Now it's all sorts of people from all over - including Japan for Heaven's sake- who wants to do cutting edge research. How is China doing it? Same way they are doing so much else -- with lots of money. China's R&D spending is rising twice as fast as its economic growth. New policies in place since about 2017 offer top scientists and researchers from around the world deals to fund their research they can get nowhere else in the world and opportunities to work on imagination capturing major projects of the type the West gave up on a generation ago (See China's recent successful work on teleportation of atomic particles). Both China's city governments and the Chinese national government are offering excellent programs and support. This includes offering university research environments that essentially operate in English - the current language of science These policies are already seeing significant success and they will see more. Scientist love big spending on R&D and the Chinese are doing that.
2
US cannot "win" against China. That is an economic, demographic and simply physical impossibility. US world hegemony is over. Any attempt to keep American dominance going by any means, dumb or smart, is just an agony which will cause more harm than good. As soon as so-called "allies" fully realise that reality, they would be gone together with "US leadership". They were only attracted to US by its power. And don't even start about the "values". Those sermons sounded good and convincing only as an "explanation" for American success. Who would appreciate any "values" dictated by a second-rate power? If you values are so great, why aren't you? It is time for Americans, including NYT columnists to face reality. The sooner they do it, the better it will be for everyone.
@David
What then is to be done?
Excellent piece. Can you please cook it down to a few catchy phrases that is well within the president´s
Attention span?
@Richard Luettgen, your comment "And you wonder why the world’s oddest and most disgusting food is to be found in China (when not in India)'' smacks of bigotry. Attacking people from another culture based not on their morality but their culinary tradition reflects badly on your inherent prejudice against cultures not your own.
6
Tom is wrong about almost everything, almost all of the time. Given that track record, Trump's China policy is probably pretty much spot on.
1
A tiny detail even Friedman didn't mention ... who owns your credit?
It has never proven to be wise to shoot your banker ...
Not to mention, America's best and brightest are busy getting drunk and laid at Yale, while Chinese students are busy learning math and programming.
5
But all this is what Vladimir Putin wants. Trump is his lackey, he is a traitor.
1
Countries that will succeed in the 21st century are those that find a way to maintain cohesion, have a collective vision, and are motivated to work together to create a common good for those in their country. Countries like the US and China may find that they are too big to succeed politically and if you can't govern yourself effectively everything starts to unravel no matter how much AI or how many large corporations have been created along the way. Chinese leadership seems to grasp this concept although I disagree with their tactics.
As I an AI scientist with a long career in the field, I would inform Mr. Friedman that his statement that "Chinese companies are already the world leaders in computer vision/facial recognition and speech recognition, which can be used for commerce and for surveillance and societal control." does not have empirical validation in respect to commerce, but does seem to be true in respect to surveillance and societal control.
My question to Mr. Friedman is: Do we want to be the world leader in "surveillance and societal control"? I think not.
1
@Dan: Everyone who carries a cell phone leaves a breadcrumb trail of their travels.
@Dan We are already going down that path of surveillance and societal control. We have cameras EVERYWHERE - surveillance. We have the Patriot Act - surveillance of EVERY phone conversation among other things. We have a president who mocks peaceful protest and has convinced his followers that protest is BAD. Societal control? We have evangelicals trying to hoist their religious beliefs on the entire country - trying to make the USA a theocracy. Societal control?
The time has come for serious introspection in America. The Nation is locked in a race between self-discovery and self-destruction. It is losing that race. It needs to recognize that the present equation does not equate. It is off-balance. America needs to reformulate a new equation. Unfettered release of the human psyche as we now see in the current political scene will not do. The “dark side” will have to be recognized and challenged, that is a total metamorphosis of the twenty-first century American mind will have to occur, one bringing forth a new human civilizational design. And this new design cannot be implemented without first challenging the core weaknesses inherent in those presuppositions we now assume to be "inherent truths" that are now the cause of our problem. And as for that critical evangelical Christian voting block; they need to understand that the Nation will be saved not by their belief in Jesus as their Savior, but by living his example.
www.InquiryAbraham.com
5
Mr. Friedman, I can tell you that two of the three things you list as America's strengths are already lost.
Given how immigrants - and specifically skilled immigrants - are being treated, America has lost the next generation already. We will not be asking our next gen to "get in the line" and wait indefinitely and then get shunted out of the country at a whim. Skilled immigrants (from China and even India) pay hundreds of thousands of dollars a year in taxes, contribute to the Ponzi scheme that is Social Security and yet have to wait over a decade to call America their home, while facing constant discrmiination, job lock-ins and risk of being asked to return.
The other great loss has been of American values. Political affiliation matters more than relationships, chest beating and name calling matters more than a respectful dialogue, and color and ethnicity matter a lot more than contributions and output.
This country is beset with xenophobia, racism and paranoia like no one ever imagined and like what all dictators love.
The damage might have taken just a few years to be inflicted - fixing it all is going to take decades. The world won't wait.
6
To the first of your points, on the value of immigration: a week ago, my wife and I visited a spectacular exhibit at the Petit Palais in Paris, on the expatriate French artists who fled France for Britain in the 1870s, following defeat by Germany and the Paris Commune. I could not help but wonder how different the art that we value and the world that it has made would be if Gladstone or Disraeli had promoted a ‘Britain First’ policy, and restricted all those ‘revolutionary socialists fleeing Paris’ following the Semaine Sanglante and the terror it caused. Trump, Miller and the rest of his nationalist immigration foes understand no history and are not strategic in the ways they think about policy; it’s all just blind, seething rage at what they think are injustices to their equally ignorant white supporters.
4
You hit upon the key in all this in your Op Ed which is that America is, currently, saddled with a president who is rudderless. Donald J. Trump is enjoying running around like a kid in a candy store, an elementary school student play acting that he or she is president and his comportment says back alley bully not president of the United States.
Donald J. Trump's daily reality TV style mussing is aimed at his 52 million or so fans who voted for him and stand by him so long as he keeps his promises, to them, and continues to be entertaining. Neither Trump nor his 95% (ers) are aware of or care about the long term damage they have, already, done to America and are clueless to how many more wounds they will inflict on the America that was great until Jan 2017.
8
Future. What? No!
We must give the pentagon another $50B!
And our infrastructure is embarrassing.
Trump is dangerous in innumerable ways.
2
Well, it won't happen with Trump in the Oval.
The T-bill yield is already at an ominous 3.10%.
And actually, Trump's inept "no pressure" tweet gives away the game. He's like the rude date who is too slow to wake up to the reality that the other party has completely lost interest, and moved on.
Narcissism is isolating.
6
Mr. Friedman, Look at the positives too, couple of years down the line, US will be producing more "Clean Coal" than China!
4
Unfair trade practices previous Administrations have tolerated for far too long need to be confronted vigorously. I don't give Trump credit for much, but he's the only to bring the issue front and center in a way that can't be fobbed off or ignored. Hopefully, when he's gone, pursuit of the objective won't slow to a crawl.
1
@Richard, it's the only thing I give him credit for but I only give him credit for the idea that we need to confront unfair trade practices, but not the strategies and tactics he is employing to get there. Using twitter to taunt like he is on an elementary school playground is embarrassing and stupid, and shows it's the only strategy he has. Anyone intelligent and savvy in his administration surely doesn't have a voice, and we all know of Trump's bad real estate deals where his supposedly savvy negotiating got the best of him. In the meantime, we are paying off farmers to take a bath on soybeans and businesses of every size will start to feel the burn if they haven't already. Great intentions can quickly turn bad if you can't execute on them.
Considering our watered down educational system, it isn't hard to believe that some colleges offer remedial reading and writing to young students. Students who shouldn't even be candidates for advanced education. Our colleges, generally, have become a right of passage rather than institutions of higher learning. Students are graduated who are sadly inefficient in mathematics, science and engineering. Our most innovating companies beg for foreign educated workers.
'America first' in the technical field will leave our industries wanting, and will erode our place as a world leader.
Good luck trying to explain these truths to Trump's voting block base who think anything American is automatically the best.
6
Good article, but after watching Trump's speech at the UN yesterday, I think it is better to wait until his term is over, before other countries start to talk with the US again.
1
Mr Friedman,
You neglected to mention the 4-2-1 problem completely. The workforce in china began to contract in 2012 and will continue to contract for 30 years. By 2030 they will have 300 million people over 65, it may go as high as 400 million by 2040. How will a country of 1300 million cope with this? The same as Japan, by permanent recession. That will begin soon, if not already, and china will emerge around 2050 with a stable 600 million people. Until then the trajectory is down only.
@Harry Arendt. Times are changing. What was fate in the past might be opportunity now. AI, IT, and especially robotics will certainly reduce the negative economic consequences of a shrinking population while stimulating the development of exports of advanced products in those fields.
Trump has a trade war with China today because China is a popular boogeyman, and trade war is a popular snakeoil cure to the perceived theft of American wealth by pretty much everybody from China to Canada. Trump might be a terrible president, but he is a natural-born huckster.
I wouldn’t be surprised if, after mid-term elections, some Chinese company puts a few hundred million investment in a Trump property somewhere and the trade war is called off.
2
I believe all three things you mentioned; immigration, allies and values will not work again. The white America will continue to resist immigration. Allies will at the end prefer economics and prosperity over military juggernaut and adjust to China influence. Thirdly you talk of values, democracy and human rights; America version; but the world has been witnessing your versions for decades now. Suppressing votes in your homeland; killing fields across the world and brutal torturing. So tell me which will you choose.
2
The first rule of competition, never underestimate your opponent. That is how the U.S. Hockey team beat the Russians in 1980; and, it is how Trump beat Hillary in 2016. Trump and America overlooks China's economic, political and military power at our own peril.
1
Yesterday was a prime example of our misguided actions. Trump was bragging about how much we spend on our military while China can brag about how much they spend on education and infrastructure.
5
How is it that people just don't get numbers?
If another nation has 5 people for every one of yours, you essentially have your whole population competing with the top 20% of theirs.
If they have 5X the people, they have 5X the potential customers, which gives them incredible potential as both a growing market, and a growing labor market to serve it.
If we are already rich and they are just working their way into what we see as middle class, they have a vast source of cheaply exploitable labor.
Add to it, if their landmass has not been so over utilized that they still have valuable minerals and raw materials to massively recover, they have an advantage.
We are not strong simply because we are big any more. We need to use and count on different strengths. Obama tried to create a network of soft power, trade agreements that kept us part of the global markets; alliances that kept used our soft power to try to work through change in places like Iran. Trump is the bull in a china shop, breaking things as he passes through.
It is too bad it isn't 1950 anymore, or even 1850. We don't have the people, or the raw materials to be what we once were. We have to aim to be something different. And we are ceding everything - clean energy, AI, manufacturing - to the Chinese.
14
The Republican base, which decided it was tired of a Mitt Romney or John McCain type of candidate, created the mess we are now in. They based their choice of a candidate, Donald Trump, on the amount of hatred he engendered from the other side, and employing the oft-quoted "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" line of thinking. They salivated about liberal disdain.
But the "tag-alongs," the Republican estabishment, moderates, centrists, and independents, wanted power, too, and made the Faustian bargain with the base and this president that got him elected. It was an evil concept the base started, and it worked.
It was a vicious jab in the eye by Obama-bashing, Hillary-hating, press-pummeling, flyover state voters. Everything we see now is an offshoot of that fundamental election dynamic, for which the rest of us are paying dearly. It was an act of fear and hatred that propelled Trump, and created the empty-headed masses with not a clue about anything Friedman discusses.
Intellect and intelligent concerns about issues like China competition got sidelined by the circus show. Reality TV trumped world realities about our future.
Thanks Comey, thanks Republican base.
6
@Srose
Don't foget Russia's role in the rise of Trump-https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/01/how-russia-helped-to-swing...
A more interesting question that Friedman could have asked, since he came right up against it but then avoided posing it, is why does China now have nine of the top twenty publicly traded companies now? It is because the Chinese government itself has invested heavily in its economy in a deliberative and strategic fashion. The U.S. President has implemented piecemeal tariffs against China that may well prove ineffective, but this need not -- and should not -- be taken as a sign that all market protectionism is bad.
Indeed, without market protectionism, China would have acquired little of its present strength in the presence of powerful and exploitative American and European economies. Instead, just as the USA, Japan, and Germany did in the 19th century in the face of overwhelming British economic superiority, the Chinese have engaged in the protection of their emerging markets as the economist Friedrich List recommended well over a century ago. The United States and Europe, in a changed global environment, need to learn this lesson swiftly and ensure that they also engage in more strategic -- rather than short-term profit-driven -- investment in their own societies. There is no virtue in following a free market ideology until it leads to international irrelevance and both right- and left-wing politicians should recognize this reality before it is too late.
5
One should look back on Japan's view of America and how that worked out for them. Underestimating America is a fools game.
It's been decades and the Japanese economy is still stagnant. China has made inroads but economic views do change.
"If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants."
-- Sir Isaac Newton
In days of sail, a sea captain could detect a ship at a distance of no more than 12 miles. Today, a carrier battle group with the use of the E2C Hawkeye platform aloft can see the battle space for 200 miles in all directions.
With his narrow view of international order and cooperation, Mr. Trump's vision contracts again back to a time when pirates roamed the oceans.
This is not a way to Make America Great Again.
5
I still don’t get why we allow so many Chinese students to come and attend top US colleges, thus not allowing spots for US citizens, and then after they graduate we don’t give them green cards or incentivize them to stay here so they return to China and compete against the US.
Why are we training their workforce at the detriment to our workforce?
Finally, why do we allow Chinese to buy US investment properties that they never or hardly live in that then balloons the housing market in New York? Tax them. This also ruins the neighborhood economy because you have a bunch of vacant units that don’t drive business to the stores on the block.
1
@M. We allow Chinese students to attend top US colleges because many of them pay cash at full tuition prices to attend. Schools across the US count have come to rely on this source of income. Why don't US companies invest in re-training our own citizens instead of outsourcing? Same reason. Short term monetary gain over long term social benefit for our own country. If we say we want a 'free market' and pure unadulterated capitalism in the US, then these are some of the consequences.
6
No way will China convert to our way.
There way works so much better for them. How is it that they caught up so fast?
Not just because their kids work 70 hours per week training and studying, or because they have four times the population, but because we're a mature and inefficient market economy.
Compared to the Chinese our people would rather play than work and we waste billions on the military, and billions more bailing out politically connected interest groups and corporations. The connected rich are parasites on the economy.
This country does not have the ability to rationally plan, it's all up to an indulgent market that knows nothing about strategic investment for the future. The market invests only for narrowly defined ROI that benefits few, and not in infrastructure or free education or healthcare.
That worked before, but everything (except us) has now changed with China next door.
What's needed is a move from toxic capitalism to democratic socialism and intelligent planning to reposition ourselves as a second-place economy.
7
I believe Mr. Friedman that your hate of President Trump blurs your judgement and disturbs your ability to judge the facts. I agree that China executed a remarkable economic and military advance and that it is the second largest economy in the world and maybe as powerful militarily as well. I also believe that the Chinese people are extremely intelligent, diligent and industrious but every complain President Trump raise against China is correct and the president grasps all the reasons not "only part of the reason". China's remarkable growth was supported by US consumers, trade advantages, cheap labor and yes, stealing USA technology and wealth. The all world knows it and President Trump is trying to change it before it is too late.
It is true that America possess huge assets that China doesn’t have, and is unlikely to acquire them anytime soon but these are not open border immigration, hypocritically "allies" and phony "values". Finally about the wealth distribution in China and the
Chinese-Singaporean father, please check the facts Mr. Friedman. In Singapore a father can say such statement, very few can say it in China.
2
@Shlomo Greenberg
Sounds a bit like the reasons for Israel's rise. It's too late. The train has left the station as you admit.
2
With the fall of the Soviet Union, Americans believed capitalism "won." They accepted the economic theory that the government should keep out of the functions of business and let the invisible hand do its work.
If central planning was part of what brought down the USSR, we'd do one better and go to no planning. Individual self interest and individual decisions would promote efficiency and everyone would thrive. The government would not interfere in business decisions nor take steps to ameliorate suffering among working people. After all, that would undermine individual initiative, socialism you know.
Sarah Palin asked us, "How did that hopey, changey thing work out for you?" I ask the same question about the belief in deregulation and low taxes.
6
If you think those rich, gleaming cities are truly emblematic of China, think again. Get out in the countryside and visit places they probably won't let a journalist see.
By all means, China is advancing rapidly. Still a long way to go.
Not good that America is stalled in the water, if not being borne backwards by the current.
3
@Thomas The same thing is happening here.
At a crucial time in history, starting around the mid-1990s and continuing to the present, the United States became so embroiled in partisan domestic politics that it forgot to take care of business on the global stage.
America became so entangled in the bloody religious skirmishes in the Middle East that the world of international commerce evolved in Asia without our full participation.
Even though Silicon Valley and Redmond, Washington and elsewhere in America had led the world in development of computing and the internet, by the mid-1990s our domestic politics were beginning to be dominated by ultra-conservative, unimaginative leaders of the fossil fuel extraction industry.
So, busy being the policeman of the world and bogged down by ideological opposition to government nurturing the technological infrastructure – particularly when a Democrat was in the White House and had to be kept in his place by Republicans – the American leadership in hi-tech industry eroded rather quickly.
And yet, the same know-nothing nativists polluting our air and water have made things worse by deciding that talented people who may have brown skin, different religions and funny-sounding names are no longer welcome to bring their talents to America as immigrants.
The stunningly ignorant Donald Trump is merely the latest edition in a long line of right-wing dolts making America a second-rate competitor in 21st-century industries.
13
explain to me please what is it we are trying to win. will the paradigm never change?
2
Another article that seems to hate America and the path it’s on. While China has big buildings and shiny trains, it has massive problems and two times more debt than the US. Their government is in constant fear that there will be social discord and use technology to keep the lid on things. Chinese people don’t want to live there. The pollution, the corruption, the congestion, the list goes on. They want to live here! They want their children educated here! They are trying to get their money out of the country and into the US and Canada. Their structural strength is more than a billion people, but that too is changing. Their population is in decline, while ours is growing. The US’s future is bright in incredible ways. For those who would rather harp on about how miserable life is here, how bleak the future is, or the lack of opportunity or diversity, I suggest you get on a plane and visit any courty of size and live there for a while. Give it six months and you’ll come back a believer in the greatness of this country. Then perhaps, including Mr. Friedman, will you be ready to contribute to this country instead of the foul mood you currently cast upon those that know this country as being a beacon possibility.
1
China must still invest in environmental improvement and a social/health safety net. These substantial costs will be added to the Chinese cost structure, making their output less competitive. The US and EU have already completed much of these investments. Chins has a long way to go before we see a global equilibrium.
2
While I agree with Mr. Friedman on almost everything, one key part of immigration reform must be addressed: the H-1B program that allows Indian-based outsourcers to ship 85,000 extremely underskilled IT workers to the US each year, most of whom labor in conditions of indentured servitude.
I don't agree with the current administration's stance on anything except for its action to curb these serious abuses - most of which have endured for over 15 years, since the Y2K crisis. Aggressive vetting of H-1B applications are finally screening out non-qualified applicants who have merely won the visa lottery, and that's good news for those of us in IT who've been struggling a lot more than 60,000 Appalachian coal miners.
The H-1B program must now be restored to what it was intended to do: bringing in the best + brightest folks in research and development, who hopefully will stay here in the US to become the next generation of entrepreneurs, thinkers, and doers.
7
Interesting, but I think you have a somewhat fantastical view of American Capitalism in the past. Our society, or at least the wealthy who dominate our society, was always willing to sacrifice the "dignity of human beings, the rights of minorities and women and the virtues of freedom and the rules for fair play" for an additional dollar. Concern for the rights of minorities and women is a very recent, as yet unfulfilled, historical development.
14
Several weeks ago there was a stunning picture on the internet of a bridge in Vietnam. Two enormous hands holding up the bridge. Simply stunning. I began to realize that this country we all but destroyed had built a new beautiful artistic bridge and our, the richest county in the world, bridges are falling apart due to no funding. Sort of incredible isn't it.
7
So, here we sit in tech-world duking-it out with the Chinese. Part of the conversation stimulated by Mr. Friedman's fine piece centers on how easily people in various countries can pay for things with a smartphone. Juxtaposed with this is discussion of debt, be it national or consumer.
When is going to become abundantly clear that a smartphone too often serves as a manipulative credit card. (Notice I didn't say DEBIT card.) The manipulator is not the owner of the card! Furthermore, central banking manipulates the interest rate on your (smartphone/card) at will and the consumer loses... for her/his whole life.
So let's not get to blithe about dismissing hard forms of currency... Over and over economies have to relearn that an "asset" such as the debt others owe you is not real. The debtor can, and does default.
Swipe that.
2
What can China steal from the US?
China dominates manufacturing because it invests heavily in manufacturing, and in every sector they have advanced the manufacturing of everything the US invented over the life of patents to the point they own the technology by owning the patents needed to produce off patent technology.
Tim Cook told Jobs on his return to Apple two decades ago that the US manufacturing could not make the iPod, and it only got worse with the iPhone. swag, the US would need to invest $100B and ten years to bring US manufacturing up to where China is today. And we'd still be behind.
Elon Musk has been investing heavily in manufacturing in the US. The payoff is in SpaceX which has become the second global rocket launcher, BEHIND CHINA which has built its capacity faster than SpaceX which hadn't launched a rocket a decade ago.
Most Americans view Elon and China the same way: they can't possibly deliver what they promise ever, validated when they haven't delivered two years behind schedule. But then they deliver, and the reaction is it's a trick, or somehow faked.
Elon dismisses patents and copyrights as having value, placing speed of innovation as the key to leadership, just as China does, but China plays the defensive patent game well, so China will beat the US in producing goods no matter the rules, unless the US becomes as aggressive as Elon.
3
China has moved forward aggresively during the last 30 years and has specific plans to advance further. The fact that they now have almost 400 million in the middle class is a testament to their efforts.
Notice China doesn't get caught up in the middle east, nor does it spend trillions on never ending wars. The Chinese are just as proud of their nation as we are of ours. They have more modern metopolises than we do, just Google it to out. They have bullet trains, modern airports, they buy more cars than Americans.
And in contrast to us,they are on a targeted path to tech advancement, clean energy while we are going backwards and have to hope that we elect someone with a positive vision more than two years away.
10
An excellent column (as usual) and for a non-American watching what's happening in the States, some comfort. Like a lot of my compatriots, I've stopped shopping in American-owned chain stores, I buy 'made in China' and discard 'made in the USA'.
The USA are so far behind technologically that every time I visit, (again last week) I can't believe the lousy cellular service, the erratic internet speeds, the required signature on a VISA receipt.
9
If we do not stop the GOP at the polls we will lose our Country.
If we do not cast them out we will forfeit our Country's soul: an egalitarian ideal of free rational UNITED People operating unbound by allegiances to kings and religious dogmas that so ravished other Countries.
It was in our forming that the enlightenment was seeded in reality.
The idea that Government exists by and for the People.
That we all were equal as citizens; have a say in what happens, to personal liberty/privacy, to justice, to fairness, to opportunity, to pursue our happiness, to worship our god or not worship at all.
These seeds spawned things sometimes bitter/imperfect. We are imperfect - our implementations thus must evolve toward perfection.
But our seed had value - it was sought after - our Country others longed to be be like.
And because of our greater freedoms and accepting nature talent came to us - innovation thrived - we grew.
Again too often imperfectly but we had values that eventually snapped us back on track. We earned admiration mostly.
But the GOP wants to reshape our values to how well you conform to restrictive doctrine, or pray, or restrict women's autonomy over self, or castigate others born not to your liking, or wave our flag, or hail demagogues/wealth, or reduce taxes at expense of less unfortunates.
Rather to Make America Greater we need to truly respect the ideals that we are all in it together.
I think 58% of us get my point - I just hope they VOTE!
5
@MegaDucks Either way it’s not your country;it’s the voters no matter who they want.
5% of the world’s people cannot dominate the other 95% indefinitely. As poor countries catch up, the US is going to lose its position as the sole economic superpower. This is something we should adapt to by improving our own lives instead of engaging in chest-thumping with other countries.
I’m not concerned about China’s political system either. There is a very strong correlation between how rich a country is and how free it is. When South Korea and Taiwan had China’s GDP per capita, they were both authoritarian. They became democratic only after they developed to a level approaching first world living standards. The only countries in the world that have high GDP per capita and are still authoritarian are states that happen to have bountiful natural resources, like Saudi Arabia. Otherwise, higher living standards give people a more liberal outlook as they are less concerned about survival and start to do business all around the world. There is every reason to believe that China will follow the same path as South Korea and Taiwan.
3
@G.K
Except the democracy in Taiwan had been such a disaster, the Chinese view them very negatively and will avoid it like a plague!
There is a fundamental difference between the way Trump and the Chinese leadership view the world.
Trump looks backward with impulsiveness, focusing on the way things used to be, bucking the tide of progress in order to return to the past. He longs for days gone by. If there's any parallel between him and the Chinese, it's his desire to build his own Great Wall, the Chinese version of which was built to keep "barbarians" out. Trump would approve.
China, on the other hand, looks to the future, with a degree of steady, goal-oriented patience that is embedded in its culture. This is typified by its use of phrases like "The Long March Forward" and "Smash the Four Olds," and pointedly, "Seek Truth From Facts." Neither truth nor facts interest Trump.
No, Trump doesn't own China. Moreover, he doesn't even seem to own himself. That role appears to be occupied by his lenders, and of course, by Vladimir Putin, who is laughing all the way to the bank.
12
@Quoth The Raven
And that's why I disagree with Friedman's last point on American value being an advantage, it's the past American value that is the envy of the world, but not today's America!
4
Dig a little deeper and those nice sounding Chinese slogans might not appear so rosy.
Well what we used to have that China didn’t have and couldn’t afford was free elections. Looking back at 16 not only did Russer get into our heads there is lot to suggest they may have gotten into the count. Polls were less predictive,critical counties in purple states were won by margins that do not set off algorithms because the numbers were low. Yet that same lucky card was played out in 3-4 states at the same time. Of course CA knew to target those counties and knew what people were thinking and how to effect their voting. Emails sent to election officials shortly before the election can be used to infect the ballot box. There is speculation that talley hubs would have been easy to hit. We have to have paper in all elections and they need to be counted. Because our fearless leader will help the Russians. Is that why he had all state voting voter data sent to WH?
We need help from the tech industry and lots of paper.
The absolutely absurd thing is that we look at China (and maybe to India...or even to anyone!) as a competitor.
Given the fact that our planet is a closed system and we're living in an era of environmental crisis we should be teaming up with anyone and everyone to solve these issues.
Also, I know there are fundamental differences around freedom and human rights but as those populations get richer they'll most likely naturally trend towards more open societies. Surely an environment of cooperation would allow us to have greater influence over those movements than an environment of opposition.
9
'We have to respond. But wisely'. With this Presidency and its Administration?
There is an old French saying that it is better to laugh in order not to cry, and although Trump may want to have a skirmish with the Imperial Dragon, give it a lecture and show that young America is not to be trifled with, perhaps it would be wise not to count one's chickens before the eggs are hatched.
There was indeed the era where an American friend and her sister used to sit at table for dinner with a poster of starving children from China over their heads. My parent had a different point of view, and would whisk away my generous plate, adding that there was no need to polish it off for China. Instead she would address 'The Gluttony Syndrome'.
Furthermore, this G.O.P. is going to do little to help the impoverished children of America, estimated at 1 out of 4, or more. This might be considered too liberal for their political palate.
Economists are the first to admit they are not fortune tellers, and in asking a powerful dealer once about the collapse of the Soviet Union, he replied that he would be rich if he knew the answer, continuing his perusal of the London Financial Times.
China is on a global shopping spree with profitable visits to Africa to list one business tour among others, and America the Giant retreats, with a leader intend on closing the borders.
Establishing a cordial, civil understanding with China would be all to the good, but, 'Baby, it's cold out there',
4
What was the Cold War about? To me, it wasn't a conflict of military might, or even money, it was a battle of political ideologies, specifically, democracy versus communism. The last time I checked, communism is adapting pretty well (you said so yourself in this article), thriving in fact. We Americans love to declare victory (Mission Accomplished). We're really good at. What we're not so good at is following through. You can't kill an ideology, all you can do is contain it and war, in all its myriad forms, never ends. Is the Cold War over? Really?
The complete absence of central planning and thinking explains why New York City limps along with a subway system controlled with 1930 technology, and way underbuilt for recent construction.
1
I disagree with the author's positive assessment.
First of all, not a single one of the strengths he mentions are inherent to the US.
Maybe immigration used to be a strength to get cheap labor and to deprive other nations of their best and brightest. Those days are gone, like the industry you once had.
Why would someone in his right mind move to a country where a simple surgical operation might bankrupt him? Only a wealthy man would contemplate moving to the US, where you have socialism for the top 5% and nothing for the remaining 95%.
When it comes to allies, who can say? Yesterday's performance at the UN was focused on American sovereignty and unilateralism, meaning the world should listen and respect the US, or else... Looks like the US can do without allies.
American values are a strength, but it won't matter. When Donald Trump speaks and tweets you get a real sense of his values.
His trade war with China is designed to slow down this Chinese ascendency, but when 70% of your economy depends on consumer spending, his tariffs could have a tremendous impact. Stagnating wages, rising inflation, rising consumer prices, rising gasoline prices, higher Healthcare costs, $ 1 trillion budget deficits coming and partisanship and division not seen since the civil war.
No, it doesn't look like this standoff with China can be won.
20
I tend to agree with Mr. Friedman and this time is no exception. As Trump's disastrous speech yesterday illustrated, he has been taken in by the cooks on the right who are worried about some world order that will take away American sovereignty. We need allies to make us stronger. We need immigration to make us stronger. The US currently looks like a peer of China because of all the horror the outside world sees within our borders. We have made the authoritarian Chinese society look good. On the positive, Trump should represent the last gasp of this ideology. He didn't win the popular election. Now, some states will give their electoral college votes to the winner of the popular vote and more people are aware of voter suppression. The oppressed in America will have to continue to fight for more power within America. That will ultimately allow for the US to compete with China because it will make America a place that attracts allies and immigrants.
3
The Chinese might steal technology but the US stole the brightest and most talented people for generations. Both models are not sustainable. China realized this and uses its growing wealth to invest in education, research and development. Trump is closing the borders, while the infrastructure crumbles and educational initiatives are limited to arming teachers. And yes, the US gets excited by bringing back subsidized coal and steal jobs and Trump puts all his energy into hackling with Canada about cheese tariffs.
It’s not even a competition anymore. The sun has risen in the east. Good night America.
17
While I am not at all a fan of Donald Trump and did not vote for him, I don't believe the Democrats have any answers. Their platform seems to be spend, spend, spend on budget busters like "free" universities, "free" healthcare, more regulations of everything. They have no foreign policy at all that I am aware of. All of that to be paid for by taxing the rich. Guess what, the rich pay lots of taxes now and have the wherewithal and savvy to find ways to avoid paying more taxes if they so choose. So paying for all of their "progressive" programs will mean you and me paying lots more taxes. I don't know about you but I pay enough already. Come on Dems, how about some realistic ideas that involve the things that Mr. Friedman so eloquently points out.
6
@Ed
The Democratic platform is "spend, spend, spend"? Hmmm, how does that compare to the gigantic debt hole that the Republicans just passed as tax reform? College and healthcare are investments that will bring financial benefits going forward. The tax cut for the wealthy will bring us nothing of the sort. Although it will fatten their portfolios.
"The rich pay lots of taxes" already? What is a lot and what is fair are social choices.
The portion of taxes paid by the wealthy has been decreasing for decades while their income has been growing at a much faster rate. The rest of us are paying far greater shares of our more slowly increasing incomes through payroll, income, sales, and other taxes. That doesn't sound "fair".
34
@Ed
With respect, I think you misunderstand how investing in things like education and healthcare make things better for everyone. The massive GI Bill after WWII was one driver of the unprecedented prosperity we experienced in the 50s. Spending on infrastructure has a similar effect. The Eisenhower administration spent money on the interstate highway system and it changed the way we do business.
It's true that wealthy individuals and corporate "people" can find ways to avoid taxation. I'm with you if you want to close those loopholes, but do that before you give them big tax breaks.
It's just not true that the "Dems" have no ideas. It seems you don't like their ideas and reject them.
My husband and I are middle class with an income of about $80,000. Our tax guy says we will pay about $1600 less in taxes this year. To me, that's hardly enough to make up for what the whole nation is giving up.
13
@Ed We Democrats have a number of great ideas. Let me just start with the values that have and will attract immigrants to our country. They are on display in the Kavanaugh hearings. Republicans just don't want to investigate and expose the facts and then reach a conclusion. Facts, logic and truth are things that Americans have always valued.
Another thing we Democrats believe is that wealthy donors have the best Congress that money can buy. And you will note that it's a Republican controlled House and Senate.
Think about those two issues. A Congress that respects facts, logic and truth and a Congress that is not controlled by wealthy donors. That is where we need to start to make America the nation that attracts immigrants and allies.
4
I first came to the US as an impressionable 19 year old in 1976 from an England that seemed old and tired and still bearing the scars of WWII both physically and more importantly psychologically. I was hooked and came back three years later for graduate study and never left. I married an American woman and raised a family there. We moved back to Europe ten years ago as a result of a company transfer. The change is enormous, the roles have been entirely reversed, it is now the US that seems poor and lacking a future. The poverty in America’s small towns has no parallel in W Europe. My son is now at University in England, the other parents grumble at paying tuition fees, I marvel at getting an Ivy League quality education for $12k a year. There will be no need for my son to make the trek to the US to seek opportunities, he is more likely to go to China, if he feels the need to leave Europe.
The US had a marvellous moment in the sun from the end of WWII until about 1980 but that moment has passed and the US failed to invest in education and infrastructure, instead it squandered its resources on foreign wars and cheap consumer goods. It is not too late to salvage a future but the Republicans seem to have no interest in rebuilding the economy and the Democrats are more interested in dividing up a shrinking pie more equitably.
150
@John Stroughair
I agree with your assessment of the USA. Our nation with help of our allies won the battles of WWII -- but we collectively lost the war to preserve human rights. The world has borrowed and printed money to wage bloody wars; the US has already lost the War on Poverty and the War on Drugs; we are now waging a war of human rights attempting to build walls to "Make America Great". Our nation faces a test of our human spirit and our financial resources to create new models for public education and health care -- before the existing models move beyond tipping points into the abyss of civil revolt.
Phil Owen Monticello Iowa
6
@Phillip Owen: The US should have updated its own constitution along the lines of the constitution the Allies wrote for West Germany after the war.
China's progress will be unstoppable for the next 30 years or so no matter what the US does. It's a simple consequence of a huge quantitative and scale advantage. They rely on their export business but that is rapidly losing relevancy as rising domestic demand will turbocharge the economy. And, the Trump tariffs will only accelerate the transformation of the Chinese economy from low cost "sweat shop" manufacturing to high end value creation and services as production of cheap plastic toys, washing machines or clothes will migrate to South East Asia or, increasingly, to Africa. This trend may only slow donw in the 2050ies when poorer demographics will kick in but I guess that AI and robotics will then be available to compensate for the lack of workers.
The real question then will be what will China do with its immense power and influence. Will it be a force for good globally or single-mindedly pursue Chinese interests? That's why the combined effect of immigration, values and allies could create a counter-balance that would force China to become sufficiently altruistic. But this opportunity is being squandered by the Trump regime.
13
@W
If one learns Chinese history well, you will find she has never been looting other places to enrich themselves, and I'm completely confident the rising China would embrace a much more peaceful world for better prosperity for everyone!
Thank you Mr Friedman for that commentary. It actually leaves me with a sense of hope, even pride, as you remind me of the qualities that made our country truly great. I hope we can make America great again in the ways that matter. That will be a huge undertaking considering the damage done.
So much damage has been done to our great country since the revolution to disembowel the middle class that began under St. Ronald that places us at the alter of billionaire-worship.
Hopefully President Warren will take you on as a chief adviser!
10
Not just in the best universities like Harvard,Princeton,Stan U.,etc,but in almost any class room one doesn't hear the best student time and again bragging about being the best.Usually the student who performs at the top is one who does his or her homework in time,ready to ask questions about one is not clear about,not shy to give answers when the teacher asks the class and others have no clue about it.Also, the best student probably is avid reader of good books as a side interest not necessarily because of a reading assignment.In other words the best Stu is one who is somewhat completely built by rich tradition,family and other environ that healthily oriented him or her.The best student knows where his or her strength lies and knows how to tap it and is open to admit real weakness and stands ready to rectify it,while still retaining enough humbleness so as not to think of about advertising that he or she is the best.Mr.Friedman has pointed out the undeniable unique strengths the US possesses,whether others admitted it or not and being aware of it is sufficient.It is counter productive and disastrous to encourage every Nation into being only self promoting but not work together on all the potential opportunities that advance healthy,bilateral,multilateral or Global interests.Today VOA reported that Mosquito born disease has revived and spreading in Sudan next door and that won't remain their problem alone,both opportunities and challenges are global not just local.TMD.
7
@Tefera Worku: The whole global ecosystem is being equalized with introduced species.
Not just in the best universities like Harvard,Princeton,Stan U.,etc,but in almost any class room one doesn't hear the best student time and again bragging about being the best.Usually the student who performs at the top is one who does his or her homework in time,ready to ask questions about one is not clear about,not shy to give answers when the teacher asks the class and others have no clue about it.Also, the best student probably is avid reader of good books as a side interest not necessarily because of a reading assignment.In other words the best Stu is one who is somewhat completely built by rich tradition,family and other environ that healthily oriented him or her.The best student knows where his or her strength lies and knows how to tap it and is open to admit real weakness and stands ready to rectify it,while still retaining enough humbleness so as not to think of about advertising that he or she is the best.Mr.Friedman has pointed out the undeniable unique strengths the US possesses,whether others admitted it or not and being aware of it is sufficient.It is counter productive and disastrous to encourage every Nation into being only self promoting but not work together on all the potential opportunities that advance healthy,bilateral,multilateral or Global interests.Today VOA reported that Mosquito born disease has revived and spreading in Sudan next door and that won't remain their problem alone,both opportunities and challenges are global not just local.TMD.
My bet is still on the USA.
It's true, more than 600 million Chinese were lifted out of poverty in recent years and for that accomplishment the Chinese government truly deserves a Nobel price.
But when Americans are angry and dissatisfied and want to throw the crockery , they elect Donald Trump. That error is still quit simple to rectify by the checks and balances in the American Constitution..
The Chinese on the other hand have no means at all to express their discontent but one: revolution.
The Communists's won't be the first Chinese dynasty to end that way.
5
@Albert Koeman: The US set of checks and balances has apparently been turned into a sibling quarrel.
2
@Albert Koeman
Many a democracies were toppled by revolutions! No empire lasts forever!
1
"saying, “Think of all the starving children in America.” I’m sure that everyone of my generation in the theater laughed at that joke."
No, that "joke" is not funny.
We have an astounding number of hungry children in America. It is a problem in the schools, that students can't perform because they are hungry.
And we cut food stamps in response. Food for kids? Nah, make us laugh.
China is important. Our own children are more important. Laughing at their hunger is really disgusting.
23
@Mark Thomason
Having grown up with that "starving children of China" line, I would have roared with laughter,while at the same time knowing that my monthly check to our local food bank/soup kitchen supported that "starving children of America" line.
@Mark Thomason
You misread Tom and Kevin Kwan. They, and the audience, were not laughing at the hunger of poor America children which is very real.
They were laughing at the flipping of a cliche.
Big difference.
2
Like the rise of Japan in the 70's and 80's, the ascendency graph of China is being incorrectly extrapolated into the heavens. China cannot escape gravity, especially now when every type of low hanging fruit has been plucked and some of its hands have been shown.
Trump, although pushing America from the unrivalled to the unravelled column, seems, in part, oddly effective in confronting the best laid plans of Beijing. That being said however.....
1
@L Martin -- China's reduced growth rate is still three times the best we've had in decades.
That is more than just exploiting low hanging fruit.
We might maybe learn something, instead of laughing.
For example, China has health care we don't. Over 95% of Chinese are covered.
For another, China has built and is still building affordable housing for its population, like we once did after WW2 but no longer do.
There's more. The pattern is consistent. We get worse, while they get better.
There really isn't so much about which to be arrogant anymore. We've wasted that.
25
@L Martin
Well, this time it's different, Japan did not have the domestic market size nor the free national will.
America rose in the 20th century for the same reason, a huge, common domestic market! Many American companies had to be the best of the best to shine in the highly competitive domestic market, by the time they are out in the world, they are already the best that no one can compete. The same goes for the Chinese companies today!
1
@Mark Thomason Only a fool would believe any economic numbers coming from the Chinese government.
He's not big enough, not smart enough, not inquisitive enough, not strategic enough, not patient enough, etc to lead the free world. He's grossly over-matched and also is a person who doesn't care about relationships or is unable to develop them due to extreme narcissism, proclaimed victim-hood, and bludgeoning approach.
Instead, he has to shrink his playing field down to what he has the purview to control - the U.S. As he contends, he gets to 'rule' over 'his people' in the U.S. Any. Way. He. Wants. To. He might currently own the position that could (underscore) allow him to effectively lead us.
But instead he has chosen to shrink his playing field down to a more manageable sized fiefdom... an extremely limited view of the U.S., one that is like a fixer-upper with no hope, no prospective buyers, and only one savior in line to exalt it. And the people whose lives he could have positively influenced for years, decades, generations, and likely even centuries - the world somewhat, and ALL U.S. citizens for sure - have been traded in along with the better interests of humanity for 35% of a populous that is loyal to a fault. But guess what...
On this little island that he and Stephen Miller (mostly I suspect) have crafted for himself, he IS their King, and he can't lose. Sadly for the rest of us, we have to watch the train-wreck of our lives and the future of our children, grandchildren, and beyond unfold each and every grueling day, right before our eyes.
21
Our character and what we stand for has been lost to the bluster and self adulation of Mr Trump. It would be refreshing to be united with the goal of being a strong partner in the well being of all people - to be respected for innovation, education and a passion to engage in the advancement of all.
10
United we stand, divided we fall. It really is that simple whether the unit of allegiance is a community of individuals, a commonwealth of communities, a nation of states, or a global order of nations. We must be united by our common ideals, rather than divided by our self-interests. It's a fact that reasonable, rationale, empathetic, intelligent individuals have little trouble accepting as true.
10
@Sal And how does China stand up to your vision of mutual shared interests?
The US teeters on the brink of Snakebit Holler theocracy. Much of its technological momentum has dissipated. And there is no solution in sight for its increasingly dysfunctional political system, that has driven planning and thinking out of Washington.
Trump's saber-rattling is particularly dangerous because the US no longer has the manufacturing base for sustained warfare, which means that any serious war with China would probably go nuclear.
25
Against the undoubtedly correct allegation that China steals intellectual property, I should like to put Tom Friedman's frequent lament that the USA should try and continue to attract the best and the brightest from abroad (India, Africa, China(!), ...), so that it can remain at the forefront of innovation.
I would dare say that this amounts to pretty much the same thing, and, even, that the potentially deleterious effects od the American approach are more pronounced. The bright young people who are indeed enticed to move to American universities and businesses are lost to their home nations. The US should, according to Tom Friedman's recipe, stay ahead by denying other countries the output of their young.
However, as these countries of origin stabilize and progress they become more attractive and there is a tendency for people to profit from American high-level education, but to then return home and exploit the knowledge they acquired there. This should level the playing field, and this can only be applauded.
It is not a given of history that the US should be the only hegemon. This is a phase, and it shall pass, for better or for worse. It's the wheel turning, nothing more.
22
...and China owns about 1.2 trillion dollars of US government debt. If they begin selling off bonds, interest rates for both consumers and businesses will begin to climb. Other bond holders will start selling off leading to further increases in interest rates...and so on and so on.
Now that's what I call winning.
18
@jim allen as a matter of fact interest rates would fall not rise which would make bonds cheaper attracting more buyers.
I lived in China back in the 1980s, and was in Shanghai when the Tian 'an men Square massacre happened. Back then people were just changing out of their blue Mao suits and turning to western fashion, and there were no skyscrapers, and people were not allowed to drive cars. I've only seen pictures of China today. But China was a police state then (some political friends of mine disappeared after Tian 'an men) with total media control. Now it still is but with better technology. Mr. Friedman is right. You don't hear about people saying, "I want to immigrate to China". But now I live in Germany, and people here are turning away from the U.S. They say there are other choices. This is the direct result of Donald Trump. Whether or not it's too late for the U.S. to reclaim its role as the (usually) respected leader of the free world remains to be seen. One last thing about the Chinese. Saving face is extremely important in that society. Their leaders will not be bullied.
107
@Nancy S.
Agree with most of what you said except there are indeed more and more people moving to China to work, there's an estimate of over one million Taiwanese living and working in China! Many foreigners have moved to Shenzhen, China to develop their high tech ideas and companies!
I don't see much recognition here that the US economic elite contributed much to making China what it is today; that it cared a lot more about getting richer than about the US and its citizens.
I don't see much recognition here that the US political elite bowed to the US economic elite instead of its true masters - the American people - and reneged on its obligation to adequately tax and invest in them and their country.
All I see here is the belief that doing the same thing will get a different result, that continuing to run the US like a Ponzi scheme, treating the children of the American-born poor and merely comfortable with contempt, while importing the well-educated-at public-expense-elsewhere, will not end up with the election of someone else like Donald Trump as POTUS.
"Our values" Thomas? Really?
38
@GRW There was one candidate that supported expanding public healthcare, maintaining social safety nets, making higher education more affordable for Americans...you know, things that help the “American-born poor.” The people took a pass on her and voted for Donald Trump, one of said economic elites. The median income of the Trump voters was $71k, higher than Clinton voters.
The “Hillbilly Elegy” narrative doesn’t really line up with the facts.
Investment in education and infrastructure; something China has done for decades; while we have continued to ignore them in the US, are key factors in China's continued growth. I would like to be as optimistic as Mr. Friedman, however I don't see any sign that we are heading in the right direction on any of 3 assets outlined in this piece; immigration, allies, and values. Let's remember that Donald Trump was elected in a democratic process. His actions in some part represent the will and views of American people if not the readers on NYT or majority of Americans. Do we honestly think we can be a counter balance to China when we wage a war on science? I would love to know what percentage of our GDP is spent on infrastructure projects compared to China. The brightest minds in the world are not that interested in coming to the US any longer to be treated as 2nd class citizens. Sadly, I have the faintest idea of what American values are anymore. I thought I knew but no more.
60
@Canyon -- Yes. Another measure is the condition of infrastructure itself, rather than investment in it.
China's is improving, with constant expansion. Ours in falling apart, and contracting.
Here in Michigan, the Republicans have steadily un-paved our roads, going back to gravel.
As for those still paved, one can for example tell by the sound of the tires on bad pavement just when one crosses the state border from Indiana in or out of Michigan. That is Mike Pence's Indiana that is doing so much better than us! How low does that go?
4
@Canyon: Old time religion is in vogue here. Sincerely held beliefs are trumping science as the judiciary is remolded to merge church and state.
1
@Canyon Doubt there are home schoolers in China. We need better public, non religious education.
China is more of a model than you'd imagine. Their obscene "social credit score" does not yet exist in this country, because the various entities, Silicon Valley, Wall Street and the US government have not yet stitched together one all encompassing system. They will, under the siren song of the West's golden calf: "efficiency". Your credit score already follows you around like a baleful ghost and addressing discrepancies with that are discouraging enough. The surveillance state towards which we are heading will have no court of last appeal, as every aspect of your life will be governed by invisible and inscrutable algorithms, resulting in what used to be called "Fate".
11
Trump has no credibility and is not a respectable man in any way, as is known to the world already. Trust, on which US Dollar is built, has been greatly damaged. He tries to earn his own reputation and money at the cost of citizens all over the world including US. As if US Dollar dominated world system is weakened, US will suffer most, but if no strong credibility and trust, how could you go on printing green back paper and claim it as a debt to other people? Simple Truth
7
Great column, Mr. Friedman. Please keep writing. We all need to listen to what you have to say.
3
Why is Trump so belligerent towards China. As was the time Japan's product were high quality and long lasting, they were expensive. American chose Chinese product that were cheaper and short lasting. This is why China became big seller to the U.S- Americans could not afford higher price items-Made in the USA or Japan or Germany or Swiss..
It is American pocket-book weakness to have bought cheaper goods.
Trump thinks Americans earn big and can buy big. Rich people can buy anything but one who wants balance check-books every fortnightly has to think of affordable pricing. China helped.
This is Trump intelligence failure or he just cannot think big. Only thing he pretends is "be strong".
5
We are building walls - physical and intangible - at the very same time that China is reaching beyond its borders to establish international trade alliances, to export technology to developing nations, and to gain influence by flexing its economic muscle.
Sadly, under Trump, we are a frightened nation, attempting to turn the clock back on a changing world. Coal? Gas guzzling cars? Xenophobia? Primitive ‘Christian’ religious doctrine guiding public policy? Denial of science, as in ‘climate change is a Chinese hoax,’ as we watch our coastal cities slowly inundated by rising waters and ever more powerful storms?
The longer the Trumpublican paradigm dominates our politics, the less likely it is that the U.S. will remain a credible world power, much less a pleasant place to live, in the coming decades. We march backwards as China marches forward. We are becoming a sad, declining nation, with an epidemic of gun violence and drug addiction, declining life expectancy, crumbling infrastructure, ridiculously expensive health care that is becoming unavailable and out of reach for millions more Americans with each passing year. A nation drowning in public and private debt.
After-tax corporate profits soar — and so does the stock market, while the quality of life for most Americans sours. So long as our dominant political party casts government as the enemy, and rejects the notion of pooling resources for the common good through progressive taxation, we are doomed to failure.
32
@chambolle
Excellent analysis. Unfortunately, most Americans have never heard of China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative. Those of us who have visited China have seen their vast infrastructure projects, the fleets of electric cars & plug-in stations, the solar panels & wind vanes connected to street lights, their modern airports & the bullet trains connecting them to city centers.
Most Americans know none of this. Most don't even realize that the Republican's tax cuts for corporations & the wealthy will add billions to our national debt. We are willfully ignorant.
2
Having lived in Shanghai for three years, I agree with some commenters there are certain negative aspects of the China situation that cut against the trends you portray as unstoppable
The more important points you make have to do with self-destructive policies Trump has undertaken vs China, and the delusions about "Chimerica" on which those policies rest -- delusions that, disturbingly, at least some commenters seem to share
In this context, I wonder why you fail to mention the equally self-destructive "me-too-ism" of the Democrats when it comes to China policy
To be sure, the Dems -- weakly -- oppose some of the policies you point to as undercutting US strengths as a global power
But when it comes to anything explicit regarding China, the Democrats fail -- as they do in so many areas -- to offer any concrete alternatives to what Trump and the RPBs are doing
This may seem like the least of their "sins", but the impulse to "blame China" for US economic problems indicates how little Democrats have to offer
China didn't repeal Glass-Steagall
Nor did it create the "dark derivatives" that almost crashed global finances in 2008 -- and remain as dangerous today as ever
It's not China's fault the average compensation of a US CEO has risen over 1000% since the 1970s, while the average worker has received 11%
In short, the obvious reason for US economic problems is NOT China -- but "Wall Street gone wild"
Until the Democrats focus on that, their irrelevance will only continue
44
@Dr Dave: Congressional incompetence at fiscal policy gave rise to the "Dual Mandate" to the Federal Reserve Bank to manage employment by tinkering with interest rates while trying to hold the value of money constant. This is what killed you grandfather's banking system and made Glass-Steagall untenable.
Where is Africa in this analysis? African immigrants are perhaps the most educated in the United States, meaning lots of African talent are migrating here. China is all over the continent, generating much anxiety in Europe and the U.S. about the potential loss of geo-political and strategic influence. The omission is puzzling.
13
I agree with you but, I expected you would say something about racism.
Compared to China, Russia, Japan, much of Europe and South Korea there is a lot less racism in the United States. Any African would be more comfortable in the US, especially if they stay away from Trump country. There may be a move by Africans in the US away from Trump country and into East and West coast universities.
So Donald Trump has to work hard to have those smart Africans not come to the US. I expect more to come to Canada, especially outside of Quebec. That is until the idiot we elected as Premier of Ontario, who got elected even though everyone knew he was an idiot acts too much like Donald Trump. The reason he became Premier is because of the insane process to elect party leaders. We need to go to the American or the UK system.
1
Mr. Friedman,
You greatly stated the pre-Trump differences between China and the U.S. - "China has clients, customers and frightened neighbors", while the U.S. "have real partners like Canada and Mexico" and alliances with Europe, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia.
Trump only sees money and (non)sense. He only sees clients and customer (he wants to take advantage of). Trump is the worst of both worlds: he is destroying our alliances and pushing our friends away, and is unable to make long term clients. Trump took what made America great and is making it smaller by the day.
20
Remarkably cheap air fares have been available to China, on and off. I've hesitated to go to the bother and cost of obtaining a visa (perhaps flying to Houston for a day). I've been as close as Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Iriomote (Japan). Got to visit.
1
I am a Chinese student, who is pursuing my second Ph.D in Psychology in CA. I came to this country not for smuggling something back to China, I came because this country used to be and I think still a holy land for psychologists around the world. This is a quite simple choice.
After staying here over 2 years, I deeply identified with the value of this country, and I am teaching my students in China online, about everything I learnt from here.
This cross-culture experience, as far as I see, is making me a better scholar, a more profound thinker, and a more complete human being who valued the Chinese relational tradition, and also determined to unfold the precious individuation process.
I love US, sincerely, and I do believe more culture exchange will facilitate the real dialogue between these two gigantic countries. There are so many complimentary virtues in both civilization, we can learn and borrow. This is beautiful.
83
I would say that a critical part of your argument runs in the opposite direction of what you say. If China is now in some ways our equal, or first-world peer, then this is the correct time to attempt to rebalance our trading arrangements in a fairer way. The upside seems well worth the risks which, rhetoric and posturing aside, have been well contained if our general market indicators are a reliable proxy for informed sentiment. Also, if we are peers or nearly so in economic power then both countries have enough to lose to make a reasonable bargain.
3
America's values are pretty much gone now, thanks to our Kitty-Grabber-in-Chief and his anti-democratic, pro-corporate instincts. Furthermore, immigrants who had flocked here in the past will be more likely to stay at home as China, Japan, the Republic of Korea and, soon enough, even India will be seen to offer just as much in the way of avenues towards wealth and social advancement as this nation does. Add to that the malignant attitude towards immigration that The Donald and his acolytes have been promoting and the U.S. will become a second-rate power within a decade or so. It seems to me that, far from enacting an "America First" policy, we need to convince the Chinese and even the Russians (who are already a second-rate power in all respects except for their military) that there is plenty of room for all of us on this planet- so long as the population growth in sub-Saharan Africa is somehow contained- and that we can all prosper without resorting to needless trade wars and mutually-destructive competitions for clients. Each nation needs to tackle the problems of income and resource inequality (as well as disparity in education and health care) and to give each of its citizens a real opportunity to succeed. Beyond that, the world's great AND second-rate powers have to begin cooperating in order to find and develop markets while simultaneously treating their respective customers as human beings rather than as mere numerics.
10
Thank you, Mr Friedman, for not using the words "wisely" and "Donald Trump" in the same sentence. During his presidential campaign, Trump proclaimed to have one of the best minds...ever. At a time like this, we need a president who can demonstrate such a claim and not merely state it. We don't have such a president. And to use a variation on an old cliche, China, like time, is waiting for no one.
2
Forty or so years ago, I studied Chinese history and literature for the national defense, or so my fellowship said. I concluded to myself in the early seventies that China had the societal infrastructure to become a formidable competitor to the US on the world stage. No one was listening then, but I was right.
Are we inherent losers today? Only if we insist on underestimating the strength of Chinese individualism and self-reliance. We don't have a monopoly on those virtues, but we used to have an edge because we have been traditionally more open to incorporating external ideas and cultures.
Today, we seem to have rejected our greatest strength.
20
@Democritus Jr My National Defense fellowship was for botany. I never made it to China, but one of my fellow students, who went to work for Harvard, spent a lot of time in the southwest mountains, a fabulous region.
1
@Democritus Jr: Individualism is not a term normally associated with China.
My thoughts on the cashless society is what happens if the power goes out? As for the rest of what Mr. Friedman is saying, my thoughts are this: I disagree with Mr. Friedman and actually agree with Mr Trump on the need to restrict Chinese graduate students on certain sensitive technology research. Too many have been caught working for the MSS. That being said, part of our strategic disadvantage is our school funding being done through local control where schools in urban/rural areas can’t fund after school activities and have sub-standard education material. The problem is, a no one wants to verbalize is that America needs a radical attitude adjustment and radically restructure its economy and its way of doing government. Federalism has to go or radically cut back. Allows capital to play states off one another. Anti-trust laws need to be updated and enforced. A new constitutional amendment banning paid lobbying and mandating public financing. The list goes on and on. Yet the Republican party blocks it all. The Republican party will destroy America and the world due to its inaction on global warming and its corruption.
23
@Paul Rodgers
Our society has been cashless for nearly a generation. It's not about payments using smartphones. We've been dependent on plastic cards and electronic payments and transfers for at least 20 years. How much cash does anyone have stacked at home for emergency?
We will be in a war if the entire country goes one week without means of electronic payments.
3
@Paul Rodgers What happens when the power goes out? Well, look at what happened in 2006 when an earthquake in Taiwan cut several undersea cables and shut off the internet: everything was in chaos and business essentially shut down.
1
@Paul Rodgers
A cashless society will be by definition totally controlled by the State, a society without freedom.
I guess the citizens will device their system, currency, to counteract the full control of Governments.
Unfortunately, the people who read Mr. Friedman's words are the "choir" he is preaching to. The republicans, for whatever reason, won't listen to him even if they read this column. And we know trump doesn't read at all. And the people who would read this to trump will spin it to America's detriment. Why? Are they so power-hungry and greedy? Why are they so power-hungry and greedy? They are trying to emulate their leader -- the person who was laughed at at the U.N. today.
6
It is, in my opinion, a mistake to accept Chinese students and immigrants on face value. There is a great deal of patriotism for China among its travellers to the US. Just a couple months ago a Chinese research student waited for his American lab supervisor to go on vacation in order to hustle in a few fellow compatriots to take illegal images of cutting edge, one of a kind, scientific devices and send them back to China. There is a different concept of integrity apparently acceptable to a culture that minimizes the concept of absolute individuality.
26
@Don't drink the Kool-Aid
First, what you describe is anecdotal. You shouldn't think every Chinese student is a criminal because that is absurdly untrue.
Second, China doesn't have a monopoly on criminal activity. It happens on every country, every culture. Our jails are full of people I don't consider model citizens.
1
@BWCA
I'm not interested in doing your work for you. The incidence of Chinese Industrial espionage world-wide is easy enough to "Google". I'm quite confident in my opinion that intelligence without scruples is the modus operandi of the Chinese Collective.
Really, the main enemy of the people of the great USA are it's own successful corporation. Let me explain.
I am an immigrant, attracted to America for the same reasons many have been. The sense of anything is possible, the sense of some freedom. But around 2001, with my fresh eyes, not having deeply drank of the Kool-Aid, i saw something that really surprised me (something that could ruin this great nation that just adopted me) That was the great power the corporations were wielding over people in most aspects of life. I remember having a discussion with one of my workmates (a smart guy with a PHD) over this and he dismissed the idea outright. I have had more conversations with various other colleagues, "the real Americans" and they all come to the defense of the corporations, they can do no wrong-i guess jobs are very important-(Even as they were shipping more and more jobs over to China and India)
But, i am sure most people who think about it by now realize that the American congress (of both parties) are not answerable to the people. Changing congress in 2018 will help but just a little. Why? They are answerable to the corporations. To some extent, so is the SCOTUS.
To get the country back, we need to know who our true enemies are. Our corporations have become the Lords of the new land. We need to rebel against these Lords. Punish those corporations that buy congresspeople. We can start by lobbying to make K street lobbying on behalf of corporations illegal.
141
@Leben
"I have had more conversations with various other colleagues, "the real Americans" and they all come to the defense of the corporations, they can do no wrong"
People have slow IQs. Inertial thinking stops them from thinking differently. They still think corporations are their friends because they continue to believe in trickle-down from corporations. They also don't realize that corporations don't pay much in taxes - only 9% of total tax receipts.
@Leben
I could not agree more. Big brother is the corporation not the government.
Why can't more people see your argument? You are absolutely right Leben.
In addition to all you write about today, you ignore another unmistakable trend. Over the next 50 years, the largest growth in consumer spending will come from Africa, Asia and Latin America. There is no doubt that China is better positioned to take advantage of that growth in Asia and Africa than is the US. Trump is doing his best to assure China the leading role in Latin America as well. He has pulled out of the TPP which included many Latin American countries and he is doing his best to alienate Panama, which recently spent $6 billion to build another lane of the Panama Canal which tripled its capacity. The US is the largest user of the Panama Canal, but China is second. Trump is a joke. And, unfortunately the joke is on us.
66
@James Ricciardi
You stated the obvious. Of course poorer countries getting better off will have larger consumer spending growth. If you are poor and are given money, you will likely purchase clothing or some other consumer good. If you are rich and are given money, you will likely invest it in the market - not consumer spending. Nothing wrong with that.
While Trump provokes laughter at the United Nations, Friedman offers another of his thought-provoking big picture overviews of the global state of play. Well said.
"But ultimately, I believe, the U.S. and China together will have to play the role that the U.S. played alone after World War II — to define the rules of the new international order, from A.I. to privacy to trade. And our weight in that process — we must never forget — will depend on the talent we attract, the allies we rally and the values we embrace and promote."
7
@thekiwikeith
The biggest mistake we made was granting "permanent most favorite nation" status to China on December 27, 2001
I think there is quite alot going on in China that we do not know about. There is no freedom of speech in China - or at least it is very limiited if you want to talk politics or if you have a complaint against the government. Yes, China has alot of factories. But when we transferred our factories to China we also transferred our pollution. I would imagine that people in China are suffering all kinds of ill consequences and costs as the result of rampant pollution, but we do not hear about it. It would be interesting to have access to news reports about real conditions in China, not the rosy picture the government of China paints.
12
Perhaps this will be our Sputnik moment. The US is nothing if not competitive. Imagine where we'll be in a decade if we stop playing war and start investing in the future. The US has always been good at innovation and reinvention. Can we do it again or are we going to flitter away like every other empire before us.
15
Trump marks the end of the American century (more accurately 3/4 century). It was shorter than Britain's. In the case of Britain it was the disintegration of a colonial empire. In our case stupidity and greed from the 0.1% who made possible for the take over of all branches of the Federal Government by the most incompetent and corrupt collection of individuals in its history. The US is too big and wealthy to fade into irrelevance but it will no longer be the dominant presence it was until recently.
109
Was America 'dominant' until recently? In recent years it destabilised but failed to pacify Afghanistan and Iraq and Libya, despite enormous expense. It stood by helplessly while Syria fell into years of anarchy and bloodshed, and ISIS brought mayhem to the region - Russia is the dominant player there now. It couldn't stop Russia grabbing Crimea or destabilising the Ukraine. It failed to bring peace to Israel/Palestine (indeed Israel seems the top dog in the Israel-US relationship. It does what it wants, and the US keeps paying). It couldn't stop North Korea acquiring nuclear missiles. It couldn't stop China illegally militarizing the South China Sea or seizing islands. It's stood by while Saudi Arabia has bombed Yemen for years, with no end in sight. It watched the Arab Spring fail, including in Egypt, now back under a dictator. Trump is a disaster, but US foreign policy under Bush and Obama was also mostly a long catalogue of major failures.
I've just spent two months in China teaching first year engineering students how to study in English (critical and creative thinking, questioning, some pronunciation, reading comprehension, etc.). I liked it so much I decided to stay another semester. The students are hard working, innovative and dream about reaching the stars and obtaining patents and becoming entrepreneurs and changing the world... they also study like maniacs and are an absolute delight to teach and converse with.
They pick up packages every evening from things ordered online the day before... in two months I have forgotten how to tap a credit card I am so used to Ali Pay... my Didi app translates the driver's messages into Mandarin and vice versa so I can quickly and easily get to where I want to go...
Life is just easy here... and yes, even the beggar on the street has a bar code to scan so we can donate... (meaning he/she has a smartphone, one doesn't need a bank account to accumulate cash on the app).
Watch out world - this is the century of China and I am happy that Canada has such close and long standing ties with a country that doesn't pretend to be something it's not (unlike our neighbour to the south who disenfranchise and discard residents and citizens while preaching the miracle of a capitalist "meritocracy").
182
@Connie Average yearly income in China is less than 3100$
I wouldn't be so sanguine about imparting our values to students who come here from China. If you follow the comment threads on articles that cover US/China issues, you will likely find that Chinese commenters here, either as past or present students, almost uniformly take a hard-line view in favor of all that we would consider the worst parts of China's rise. There is a kind of sense of unfulfilled entitlement to a dominant place in the world, and a corresponding dismissal of the rights and interests of lesser powers. They are comfortable with calling China's government their "rulers", and also with the notion of China ruling the world. I don't agree with Trump often, but it does not appear to be a good idea to enable China any further. We should take our business elsewhere.
18
@Bob -- "They are comfortable with calling China's government their "rulers""
Well, it is. It admits that. It claims that in some far distant time its rules will lead it to democracy, but not yet.
Meanwhile though, are we really in the same democracy we once had? An oligarchy of wealth is emerging, and it too would "rule."
7
"The first, which any regular traveler to China’s biggest urban areas can tell you, is that rich China today — its luxury homes, cars, restaurants and hotels — is really rich, rich like most Americans can’t imagine."
Indeed Mr. Friedman: "biggest urban areas".
But what about the rural areas of China? China is after, as you write, very big, and with lots of rural regions and populations. Type "rural poor in China" into any search engine and see what comes up. Under the very best of circumstances you get a lot about their never-ending and not particularly successful "war on (rural) poverty".
Just as you might claim that the 1% does not represent the US, I think it only fair to point out that parts of China are poor like most Americans can't imagine, or maybe they can.
So I guess that does make China a "peer": a society with fabulous wealth and poverty. You should though mention the poverty, Mr. Friedman.
Publicly traded tech companies is not the entire picture.
26
@Joshua Schwartz -- Friedman does seem to have sought out or been sought out by that "China today — its luxury homes, cars, restaurants and hotels — is really rich, rich like most Americans can’t imagine."
He gravitates to the wealth there like he does here.
3
This is a good article about Chinese advancement. They do have a huge problem in the coming years that will self-curtail their amazing growth: the haunt of the 1-child rule. Back when population overgrowth was a thing, the Chinese restricted families to 1 child per family. That oversight has led to a deficiency of young citizens to work and pay for the expenses of an aging population. This will be extremely costly and probably self-regulate the age of Chinese prosperity, unless the Chinese simply put their aging population to the wayside. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next few years as this reality comes to fruition.
16
@Bryce -- "the haunt of the 1-child rule."
True, but it cannot be said without also making mention of "1.4 billion Chinese." Two things about that.
First, without the one-child rule China would be 2 billion Chinese. It was done cruelly and corruptly, but something had to be done, and this was done.
Second, quantity has a quality all its own, to quote Stalin. They are four times our size, 15 times Japan's size, near triple the EU. That quantity will make up for a lot of other issues.
2
@Mark Thomason Not when their 80!
I now feel, in a daily pervasive sense, that my country is working against all of my interests. From a clean environment, to decent affordable healthcare & education, to protection against corporate fraud and so much more; those benefits I took for granted as an American (with a few exceptions under prior Republican administrations) are now stripped away from me, with a malevolent gusto that is shocking. We are getting a taste of third world life. I feel like a prisoner, because I’m too old to be accepted as an immigrant in the other decent countries. I’m stuck in this dystopia, created by the tyranny of the minority.
400
@Just Curious -- "I now feel, in a daily pervasive sense, that my country is working against all of my interests."
I agree. I feel the same way. But more, I feel it has been more and more that way since Reagan, with no let up. Obama would have if he could have, but he couldn't and didn't. Clinton did not even try, he triangulated to rake off profit while giving away the store. The Republicans? They were the evil in person.
4
@Just Curious
I encourage you (if you aren't already) to fight for those benefits by volunteering your time and energy supporting a political candidate you feel you can trust , and who you feel will work towards doing the right thing. It will happen. Don't just complain and give up. Please! "Evil wins when good men do nothing".
You’ve described my feelings exactly. So very well put.
1
Lots of fair and valid points, as usual. The Trumpian, populist-right has a name for them, “globalism”. They imagine a world organized against US interests rather than created by US leaders (elites) in pursuit of those interests. Nationalism deludes far too easily - America is aggrieved by the unjust global order! The reality is that the country is being deliberately led toward decline. One has to wonder who’s interests are best served by these self-inflicted wounds.
16
The advantage China has over USA is that it believes in long term planning for the Nation. We, today, look down upon National Planning as “socialism”.
The irony was the transformation of US from a primarily agrarian nation to an industrial behemoth was because of long term planning: from reconstruction to building the freeway system.
We cannot build another freeway system let alone maintain what we have! Because that would be “socialism”!
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@Deep Thought
We need to be clear about what China is: an authoritarian technocracy. I have spent time in China: most I talked to are more than happy with their government, China is not moving towards an open society.
You may admire their political system.
In fact it represents a frightening future.
14
@Bill Dan Read it again please. @Deep Thought admires the ability to plan and points out the US used to be able to do that without an authoritarian government. Reagan broke that.
1
@Bill Dan
An open society of 1.6 billion? Here we are at 320 million and staring at an existential crisis because our open society is more illusion than reality, where the loser becomes president and GOP with a minority of voters nationwide controls government.
Of course most Chinese are content with their one-party rule. There isn't chaos, mob rule, religious riots, mass starvation or a lack of healthcare. All of their billionaires are self-made entrepreneurs who had a much harder path to success than American billionaires; and unlike the majority of the wealthy in America, they didn't get rich from inheritance.
There's corruption but there is as much here and we have no excuse. We just call it farm subsidies, no-tax corporations, privatization, Wall Street and defense contracts.
By the way, think anyone you spoke to in China would tell a foreigner they hate their government?
So much of punditry about China makes them sound like aliens from another planet, sinister, inscrutable and malevolent.
The underlying fear is that ultimately they're out to get us, to displace the US and assume global hegemony.
That's not who the Chinese are. As been noted by many, including numerous readers of The NYTimes, there's a glaring amount of what looks like unconscious bigotry. It's not surprising though it's always disappointing. (Resist citing ancient Chinese kingdoms that ruled Korea or Tibet as evidence of imperialism without acknowledging that we occupy territory we seized by decimating Native Americans and their way of life.)
The Chinese from day one have spooked white Americans. The historic record includes the Chinese Exclusion Act barring Chinese from entering the US, the sharply demarcated ghettos of Chinatowns -- which became metaphors of amorality and zones of suspended virtue (even the title of an acclaimed movie).
We are leery of Russia but not Russians, particularly the apple-cheeked, blonde and blue-eyed Russians. But we fear China because we find the Chinese mysterious and thus malevolent.
Their political system reflects a practical approach to governing a full 1/3rd of humanity crammed into a habitable area half the size of the US.
Their freedom is from hunger not political rights. They want respect and equal standing. We've taught them it comes from the barrel of a gun. They've been excellent students.
36
@Yuri Asian you're giving a few reasons to support your argument that are based on some inaccurate facts and premises that don't likely hold. I'll mention just one point here: that of the hypocrisy you accuse Americans of for criticizing China's seizure of indigenous peoples' land without acknowledging America's own.
The crucial difference is this: Imagine one country made it mandatory to discuss the injustices it visited on indigenous peoples in schools, to allow protests to take place, and the news to cover this.
Imagine the other country continued to actively oppress its indigenous people, jail those who protest, and control all news covering it.
Which of these two countries would most say are standing on firmer moral ground? By a long shot.
3
@Beau
Have you been on an Indian reservation? Do you know any Native Americans personally? I assure you what's taught about the Native experience varies state by state (In the US states control public school curricula) and isn't by any stretch mandatory but it is revisionist with huge gaps about the atrocities and betrayals, including wholesale eradication of numerous tribes.
Which country stands on firmer moral ground? Unless you're Rip Van Winkle, or worse, think Trump's the cat's pajamas, you've got to be kidding.
It's not like Canada has anything to be proud about regarding its relationship with First Nations people either.
Multiply the US population by 4 and force them into the space between the Mississippi River and the Atlantic coast. It's command and control or chaos.
By a long shot.
@Yuri Asian
“Resist citing ancient Chinese kingdoms that ruled Korea or Tibet as evidence of imperialism without acknowledging that we occupy territory we seized by decimating Native Americans and their way of life”
When you receive emergency care it won’t go well with the paramedics and doctors and nurses and orderlies too busy recounting your view of their inherited sins to deal with the emergency.
Since you don’t know you might want to learn “Native American” is an artifact that includes thousands of languages and many peoples who hated each other with all their heart and soul for good reason and many peoples who were meaner than rabid snakes. To reduce the whole to a bludgeon of “Native American” to turn every issue into a talk about themselves no matter the occasion announces someone who likes lies.
And forget Tibet and Korea, what is now considered China proper is the slow and steady destruction of one native people after another as one Han dynasty spread. Even now there are many indigenous people in China who are treated about as well as the Maya in Mexico.
‘According to your assessment we are in deep trouble with Trump.He is cutting way back on the talented immigrants, he is picking fights with all of our allies and his only value is American dominance.So much for talent, allies and values.He is deluded enough to think that he can persuade China to change their economic system to accommodate the United States.He does not realize that their planning is to equal our status.We need to return to our greatness- November is a start.
12
Mr. Friedman: You wrote, "We won the Cold War," but this is an illusion. The fact is that the Soviet Union and the United States bankrupted each other with the arms race, along with the space race. In the case of the U.S., the damages may appear less visible on the surface, but the citizens of Russia and the U.S. continue to foot the bill with a lower standard of living, shortened lifespans, fewer government services and deteriorating infrastructures. It looks like China may emerge the winner by default.
39
@Lupo Scritor -- The Soviets lost. They collapsed.
That is not at all the same as "we won." We just survived longer.
2
China could narrow gap with US quickly if not for the bad perception about her and her very very poor communicating skill. Chinese news media already damaged goods, so no amount of their story about US can influence people to have sympathy for China.
Plus her own lack of self confidence means Chinese continue to flock to US to study or invest here. AI, whatever computer skill does not depend on borders. It can be done anywhere in the world in a collaborative manner. Only the chips need to be trained and China can build them too albeit not as densely packed as US can.
Still, it is the computing programming skill that decides who end up superior and with more STEM graduates, China have far more potential to make better AI chips than US.
Only on the physical level, US devices have more sensitivities and thus more capabilities. This is where China continue to lag but is catching up. US capabilities actually rooted in her astronomy devices. Chips powers every high resolution capabilities.
Trump mistakenly think Chinese students come here to steal IP. All this can be done over the Internet by just tapping into human behavior to open a crack into the door. Human folly is the biggest vulnerability in any nation and US is not immune to losing out to China just by relentless Chinese attempt to hack by any subtle means.
In the future, computer skill literacy must be required for anybody to become POTUS. We don't need old school people to run our country to the ditch.
4
We have the wrong man for the times and nothing can change that in the intermediate term. Congress failed and does not want to engage. The points made here regarding our assets warrants reinforcing ever so often until the cavalry arrives. Keep up the good work.
6
@texsun -- We have not had the right leadership for the times since Reagan. We have not been offered it either, although the out-party is furious about being out.
Ouch! The bottom line is that China is looking to the future while America is looking at the past. What is the next Sputnik moment? How embarrassed will we have to become in order to build the resolve to embrace the future again?
11
Just a funny story:
The reason Nixon decided to choose China as the receptor of American manufacturing outsourcing in 1972 was to consolidate the split of the socialist world.
After Krushchev made his famous speech for the 20th CPSU meeting, thus de facto proclaiming "destalinization", the Chinese were against and protested: they wanted socialism to continue to spread by revolutions, while the Soviets decided for the "peaceful competition" tactic.
This schism went on for practically the whole Krushchev government, and the beginning of the Brezhnev government, culminating in the Sino-Soviet War (1969): the split was done.
No wonder why Nixon must have found very attractive to coopt the Chinese in 1972, when they officially extended their hand to the Americans: the weight of the 1949 episode ("who lost China?"), which gave birth to McCarthyism, was now no longer haunting over the back of the USA.
But every action has long-term consequences. In retrospective, the USA could've given the prize to India; in the 90s, Malaysia was the next deus ex machina. Now, Trump wants to decentralize outsourcing to the many micro-countries in SEAsia. The problem is: with what resources?
2
@VK -- No.
First, Nixon split our enemies. India was not our enemy, not part of a bloc against us.
Second, we did open to India too. It just did not take as well because of the profound corruption of India.
2
I believe we are still the world's dominate power by a long shot. But that could change very quickly. There's another article today about how interest on the debt is set to overtake military spending as the highest factor of the budget. 900 billion a year & growing.
I'll say this about China, they go in to do business. They don't care if your communist, capitalist, socialist, friends with the Israelis, friends with the Saudis, a military junta in Africa, Putin or anything like that. There's no judgement on what system or who's running the country. If you can make a fair square deal that can be followed through, they go in. Plus they don't seem to cause military mischief everywhere like us. That gives them a big advantage. We have all these pre-conditions for doing business. Plus we really like to take advantage, and exploit for big profit the indigenous people wherever we go.
15
"China can’t attract the best and brightest Indian, Israeli, Arab, French, Brazilian and Korean immigrants, but we still can".
The next push in AI is for machines to converse with us (and each other) in a natural language - either English or Chinese. Non-native speaker immigrants will be at a distinct disadvantage with this sort of technology. You want to change the road rules - you issue them in natural language and machines read them, just like humans do - you don't want to have thousands of programmers trying to keep machines up to date, when it can be as simple as a sign by the side of the road, telling drivers what to do for the next 5 miles.
1
We can't tariff or trade war our way out of this challenge, but we can't continue the path of previous President's, either. China is pursuing specific intolerable behaviors, some of which Friedman lists (add currency manipulation to that list), that should be the focus of enforcement efforts coordinated with other developed and developing nations (several of whom are suffering under abusive deals with China, Malaysia and Sri Lanka to name a couple). The claim that China is thinking long term is a myth; authoritarian states are far more fragile than those who are inclined to authoritarianism ever imagine. Xi has very little room to maneuver. The first time the now-enormous Chinese middle and wealthy class face a drastic drop in their asset values and lifestyles, army tanks in town squares won't able to hold. As for the Chines holding a trillion in US debt, that's a nothingburger. The Federal Reserve can buy that debt on a moment's notice, without batting an eye.
The message for China is simple: "You are grown up now. It's time to start acting like a responsible adult."
8
Journalist Peter Beinart wrote a recent—brilliant—piece in The Atlantic on the American government’s mistakes in dealing with Russia after the dissolution of the U.S.S.R. (e.g., recklessly expanding NATO to include small countries actually bordering Russia which most Americans can’t find on a map, can’t spell their names, and are not interested in fighting for were they invaded or attacked because the integrity of such countries has no impact on U.S. national security), and our growing military and economic disputes with China, which will have a larger economy than the U.S. shortly and is concentrating its military power in the regions adjacent China rather than the spread-out-around-the-world distribution of American military power. Beinart makes the point, among others, that because of Russian meddling in the 2016 election American politicians have taken their eyes off of China and focused on seeking to punish Russia when China is the economic and military threat we should be most concerned about as the assets necessary to be invested by the U.S. to maintain parity with China will continue to grow, whereas the investments necessary to stay on par with Russia should be static. Again, Beinart’s assessments are nothing short of brilliant.
However, Beinart does say that if the U.S. government allows Chinese trade policy to finish hollowing out middle class jobs for the ultimate enrichment of the top 20% of U.S. society (economically speaking), then the U.S. will have lost.
8
China is the champion of the authoritarian state run economic system. The goal is to keep the masses working, keep the masses patriotic, and keep the masses fearful. But, they are no longer backward and isolated. The fumbling of our current government and leadership will only forfeit our economic and moral leadership
since WW 2. One needs to realize the long arm of Chinese influence throughout the third world. We’re abdicating our leadership and our beacon of freedom only because a charlatan won the electoral college but failed to win the popular vote. Yes, it is Trump and it’s a shame so many citizens follow him blindly to the detriment of our nation.
10
The new China rich have the money and they are the ones responsible for killing off endangered wildlife worldwide today for the “ medicinal” body parts m like bear paws and elephants tusks. It won’t stop either because of their insatiable demand! The same applies to their willingness to steal proprietary secrets from the West any way they can. Imposing restrictions on the West’s business dealings while getting away doing as they please with our cockeyed “ fair” trade policies , that Trump is reforming despite our own milquetoasts who say let it go less there’s a trade war. Trump is the reformer we need, at last!
3
Yep, even CA voters don't want to pay for high speed rail, but when people visit China and Japan they are amazed at the transportation! Our bridges and roads are falling apart, but the 1% can have 10 more yachts!
60
By one measure, China dominates the manufacture of aftermarket auto and truck parts. I hear numbers as high as 90%.
But so much of the product for cars and trucks from China is JUNK. Oh, it takes a good picture but China’s commitment to quality is a sometime thing. Am I making this up? Go ask any auto mechanic. They hate installing non-OEM parts because they don’t fit or fail shortly out of the box.
If these are the standards that China plays by, I just can’t afford to pay that price no matter how low that price goes. I just don’t see this business model as a path to world domination.
So, Mr. Friedman, you need to take a closer look at Chinese trade practices. Since the founding of this Republic and days of the Clipper ships, America has helped spread an ethos of quality products and fair business practices. Can you say the same for China or are you just seeing the imagined glow of state run and financed businesses?
8
China has a visionary leader who loves his people , all of them. His plan of targeted poverty reduction is truly revolutionary. Why not write about that? If China achieves its goal of eliminating poverty how do we continue to win the values competition with millions of citizens living in misery?
7
@John Shelley
A visionary leader? Surly you're joking? Loves his people? Are you delusional?
Xi is a statist authoritarian - in the same vein as all the other leaders of China since Mao. Modify that - in the same vein going back to when when China was an amalgamation of warring states ruled by feudal gangsters.
1
@John Shelley
"China has a visionary leader who loves his people , all of them", with the exception of all the minorities such as Tibetans, Uighurs, etc.
2
@Common Sense
True, you all feel trumpt's love!
Trump understands absolutely nothing. America will be paying the price for electing Trump for decades. If there are still Americans who think the USA is #1, while having no healthcare when unemployed, and driving over potholed streets while watching its decaying infrastructure, then they've never spent a day outside of America. When you are primarily a service nation, everyone else owns you.
And as an example: Right now, in Montana, Barcalys Bank basically owns the city of Missoula, and its beleaguered taxpayers will be paying off a $140 million variable rate loan for the remainder of their lives. Why? For condemning a $50 million private water company that was already delivering water. America is owned by others, hook, line, and sinker because of hubris-driven, ignoramus-producing incompetence.
Trump is just their mascot.
14
There is one thing the USA also does not have and that is overpopulation. With about 1.4 billion people, China has some major population pressures to deal with and it will cost a lot. With their new dictator for life running the show, the old demons of dictatorship will rear their heads. With four times the population density of the USA, Chinese environmental pressures may well squelch a lot of potential growth while at the same time driving conflict and adventurism. Next door India is having to deal with the same set of limitations as China. If I live long enough, it will be interesting to watch the story of development.
2
Friedman's most salient point is the rise of publicly traded tech companies from 0 to 9 of the top 20 in twenty years. Contrast that with Japan and Germany.
A key future indicator will be how close China can come to the OECD in GNI ( gross national income) per capital. The OECD average is about $37,900 while China is at around 13,500 which is currently close to Brazil of 14,200. If only 25-30% of Chinese can hit the low end of OECD around $30,000 that would be a tremendous market of around 400 million people.
Lastly, how well the Chinese manage ASEAN nations and South China Sea territorial disputes could position China as the preeminent economic superpower without heavy reliance on US market. ASEAN is fast growing economic region in world with almost 500 million people added together with China would be 2 billion, a formidable economic market, if China is not too overbearing and offers meaningful co-operation and fair economic opportunities for ASEAN nations in Soth China Sea. ASEAN and China, having settled territorial disputes and allied together in regional trading bloc would be nightmare scenario for US because it could eventually force Japan to join in some tacit way to protect its enormous interests in Asia.
6
Tell me, Mr. Friedman: how exactly do working Americans benefit by U.S. enforcement of strict of intellectual property laws in China?
American Pharma prices aren't high enough in China? Or Bill Gates needs more spending money?
Strange, how we're all supposed to be horrified that the companies which best exploit American government-granted patent monopolies, and who then do their utmost to offshore their profits to escape U.S. taxation, can't manage the same racket abroad without the active strong-arm assistance of American trade negotiators....
Is it your idea that my 401K pittance soar, if only American companies could collect rents from billions of Chinese, so I'm supposed to support this money grab?
8
I work for a small medical tech company. Yes, we do need our IP protected! So does every artist. So does every engineer.
10
@jrd : By supporting the Chinese regime, for the pittance that you earn as a paid propagandist, you are betraying the Chinese people.
@Lisa
Yes, it benefits pharma, as already noted. What about Americans who would save hundreds of billions in annual drug costs if China produced cheap generics?
And how many American artists do you know who are starving because the Chinese steal their products? Aren't you really talking about Disney? And Disney revenues are supposed to benefit working Americans?
Perhaps China will cancel the Trump family's trademarks there.
14
As always, you sum up very well what the Trump administration and our nation is facing. But the other side of the trends is the fact that China is not moving in the direction democracy. An advanced economy with all of it's grand technology still leaves a huge vacuum with respect to widespread political participation.
In the U.S. we will at some point get through the Trump nightmare. But we will remain a democracy, even with the scars left by Trump. At some point sane leadership will again welcome immigrants. Better leadership can reach out again to our friends and neighbors. So not all is lost. We can begin this long trek back to reality by voting out the old regime in the Congress. Our nation can still learn from the mistake made in electing an unqualified egomaniac. I remain optimistic that we can reclaim our place in the world order.
China has only achieved part of the larger human agenda, what remains is a way to open it's system to participation by all it's citizens. There is nothing on the horizon that gives the average Chinese citizen any hope this will every happen.
7
@Ferniez I am not so sure that we will remain a democracy. Trump and most of the Republicans in Congress are eroding the checks and balances - ideology at any cost, defaming the press, selling lies as truth, etc. I fear for the future my children and grandchildren if they do not leave the US. I am encouraging them to leave.
9
The republicans want to be the dominant party with a minority of support. They do this by gerrymandering and rigging the vote thru voter suppression. No wonder people are leaving the party. In Trump the republicans have found the president who reflects their authoritarian beliefs.
2
To paraphrase Tina Turner: “what’s *democracy* got to do with it?”
1
Chinese banks are so overleveraged, we should be looking to provoke a credit crisis there. That would open the door to social unrest and, if we are lucky, civil war in China.
2
@QED While you are quite correct about Chinese banks being over leveraged...for that matter, China is over leveraged, civil war should never be viewed as "lucky". Millions being slaughtered is not a good thing.
9
@QED
So indelibly true.
Better yet, open a multifaceted attack on China's stability:
Induce civil war, devolving to complete chaos culminating in a failed state. Then we swoop in to scavenge the remains!
What could go wrong?
Q.E.D., we win!
@QED
Actually social unrest and civil war would not be good for us either. A huge house fire down the block does not raise the value of your own house.
3
"Finally, as a society, we stand for things — or at least we used to stand for things — values people admire, about the dignity of human beings, the rights of minorities and women and the virtues of freedom and the rules for fair play."
Why is that even highly intelligent people like Mr. Friedman perpetuate this meme, when near-identical statements can be made for many countries? My own comes to mind, as do dozens of others.
America is not exceptional. It may have been the first to enshrine liberty, but is now far from alone. Not even close.
Let it go already.
142
@Karl Gauss
I believe that you are reiterating Friedman’s point. If America was first, others followed because the idea was attractive, not because America compelled them. That is why it is so important for America to stand by its ideals - many of them shared with Canada and our other allies - because compulsion is of such limited use.
4
@Karl Gauss I don't think Friedman meant that America is the _only_ country that stood for these things ... his point was that it _no longer_ seems to stand for them.
@Karl Gauss,
Friedman didn't say that the United States is or was unique. Your reaction seems overwrought with defensiveness. Would if soothe your sense of righteousness if we heaped praised upon Canada and dumped abuse on the U.S.?
1
That's super-cool Thomas but trump is still here. Write about how to prevent another trump from happening.
8
Chinese hardly use cash now ; they pay with cellular phones, even more frequently than South Koreans and Japanese do. Koreans have largely disregarded Chinese products as “the continent’s mistake” for long time, but it’s not the case any more...
1
China has huge advantages - and huge problems. But their biggest advantage is that they don't have a Trump at the helm or a Republican Party.
372
@Larry Roth-They also hold a huge amount of U.S. debt. As of December 2017, $6.3 trillion or approximately 45% of the debt held by the public was owned by foreign investors, the largest being China (about $1.18 trillion) then Japan (about $1.06 trillion).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States
Let's not forget that China has consistently held more than $1 trillion in U.S. debt every year since 2010. Currently, U.S. debt to China stands at about $1.18 trillion. China's position relative to America gives it political leverage that Trump may want to pretend doesn't exist, but it is very real. It's unlikely China would call in its debt, or even part of it, since that would affect the Chinese economy (as well as every other economy), but it's a weapon that China has in it's arsenal. Even a little sell off would rattle world markets. If Xi gets fed up enough with Lyin' Donny, who knows what could happen?
50
@Ms. Pea: China cannot "call" anything. T-bills are payable at maturity. Furthermore, by far the biggest holder of USA debt is...wait for it...the USA. Social Security being by far the largest single holder.
China owns in the neighborhood of 5.3% of US debt. Japan owns around 4.8%. Every now and then Japan actually owns more US debt than China. Heck, the FED owns more than twice as much US debt than China.
You should be much more concerned about Russia and its nuclear arsenal than the Chinese paper tiger.
4
@Ms. Pea
We dont’t have direct loans from China, they buy US Treasury bonds in open market like everybody else. If they dump a significant amount of US bonds into the market, that would cause interest rates to drop. Hardly a problem.
@Ms. Pea. Please explain how bond holders “call in” their debt. This term is thrown around loosely, but it has no meaning in the world of finance.
There is a sadness to this development.
China was a poor undeveloped country until Deng famously visited America. The Chinese have long memories and they remembered the generosity and friendliness of the Americans when they helped them into WTO which was one of the main reason China is so successful.
China remembers her benefactor. Things could have been a lot more mutually beneficial if there were respectful negotiations.
Now that China has felt that knife has been placed on her neck, she has little choice but to defend herself. It's a real pity how this has played out.
China is now even closer to Russia then when Nixon thought of using China to counterbalance the Soviets.
24
@FrazierCrane
China remembers her benefactor by stealing technologies and blocking her benefactor ‘s corporations from doing businesses in China.
1
Our trade with China is enriching an enemy. China wants to take our place on the world stage. We are helping them by pulling back, by our trade, and by Trump's crude tactics in his 'Trade War.' We should be shifting our trade to other countries, building up their capacity, helping them to succeed, so they can be our friends and successful at the same time. We should also make it increasingly expensive for US companies to do business in China. There is no need for this 'war,' there is a need to pull back, over time, without dramatics, on our business with China.
8
How,exactly, do you propose to expand our trade to other countries when the "President" is tearing up trade accords left and right?
23
It would be great if our current relationship could be solved by immigration and values....Clinton, Bush and Obama tried that approach...It's as if the author forgets that the rise of China as a strategic competitor came under their administration's. The author surely wouldn't dare accuse the Obama administration of being light on values in this publication!
Most here want the same policies with N Korea and China as was done previously...Change is hard. It may take awhile, for some that hate Trump so much that they also hate anything he does, to understand that we have to change policy.....What did the old policies get us? Nuclear missiles that can strike New York and a powerful Chinese economy that is in some terms bigger than ours and an expanding military presence around the world...
Perhaps it's too late. We should just give up and be nice. Maybe they will be fair if we are. Let's talk some more. Long game!...I feel sorry for those that actually believe that will work. They must be young or have lived in a hole for the last 30 years. China is not going to back down unless it is forced to.
With the economy running strong and with the new tax cuts bolstering corporate profits, this is the perfect time to force them to make trade concessions. We are in the best position since 2006 to play hardball.
Maybe Trump will screw it up. But at least he understands what's happening and is actually trying to do something.
3
@Lindsey E. ReeseThe rise of China as a competitor began when Nixon decided that opening up the country for trade was a better outcome than cornering China with threats of war. It continued when China was allowed to artificially depress the value of the Yuan which created larger profits for the companies aiming to manufacture there, however also made the goods cheaper than all else on the global marketplace. The profits were sweet and US corporations sacrificed US labor on the altar of profit. Furthermore for 20+ years the US issued bonds for deficits that were bought by China, the US did this in order to maintain its own growth and a breathless pace for spending on defense. Taking responsibility for one's actions is certainly a requirement here when talking about China.
66
@Lindsey E. Rees
he understands nothing!
2
@GY 85% of the manufacturing jobs lost in the US over the past 20 years have been lost to automation, not China. China is a convenient whipping boy for what is an American domestic problem. The US should have provided better social programs, affordable education and other supports to its displaced workers. Instead, it cuts taxes and programs and left people to the tender mercies of the market, even as it added better-paying, more highly skilled jobs to its economy.
1
What percentage of mainland Chinese have any business even making a joke about “starving American children”? While China has wealth at the top due to a partial embrace of Western economic frameworks and the theft of truly massive amounts of Western intellectual capital, it remains that the average annual income of a typical Chinese family of three is $9,000. For a typical American household that number is over $73,000. Interestingly, for a Taiwanese household, that number is almost $50,000. Maybe Taiwan should take over CHINA! What is certainly true is that almost no mainland Chinese are shopping at Ermenegildo Zegna.
And you wonder why the world’s oddest and most disgusting food is to be found in China (when not in India).
While others would never admit it, every economy on this planet is either directly or indirectly dependent on America’s – most certainly including China’s. If the worst outcome of this trade war occurs that Trump has fomented with China seeking a better balance in our favor regarding how each exploits the other, then our goods (not our services) will become moderately more expensive – until we automate their production to a far greater extent – while China basically goes back to being a mere subsistence-level society not that distinguishable from 10,000 years ago as Neoliths were beginning to put farming and staying in one place on a paying basis. If we manage to develop means to prevent their rampant hacking and theft of our intellectual …
3
… capital, then they eventually and basically go back to starving. A.I.? You need an appreciable number of brain-workers to keep up the movement here; and if they’re growing rice to feed their children, they’re not creating SkyNet.
Trump is seeking to do many things, some of whose needs are opposed to those of others. For example, he wants trade protocols to be fairer to the U.S. and more protective of our middle and working classes, and he wants our allies to contribute more to our shared defense against the strongmen, buccaneers and religious extremists of the world. He also wants China to open their markets to us as we open them to China and he wants dramatically less theft of intellectual capital. Some of those things require a more integrated world, some of them require a more “America First” approach. Tom sees the inevitable messiness of so many goals and apparently concludes that the better way is that of other administrations that simply kicked cans down roads, ignored the TOTALITY of challenges that face us, and hope that it all works out in a more intensive and one-sided (ours) embrace of Kumbaya.
Thank heavens that at this precise moment in history … Tom isn’t running America.
2
@Richard Luettgen "oddest and most disgusting food" please investigate what makes up most of the hot dogs at your local supermarket... Why is Flint, MI without clean water to this day... why is FEMA not prepared to respond to the dire conditions after flooding in NC and SC... Why is Puerto Rico's situation a year after the devastation of a major hurricane ridiculed by the head of our government instead of being addressed with leadership and adequate resources.... and so on. Look in the mirror before criticizing others, who happen to be good at minding their own business.
155
@Richard Luettgen
add to the last sentence "unfortunately". But Trump is -and has no insight into laughter 'at' not 'with' as seen today at the UN. (perhaps stop at 'has no insight') There is some hope that the GOP will be hammered in November, but I wouldn't count on it.
In the mean time, how much do you suppose Americans pay for the weekly golf excursion? Could the money be better spent? Could a few holes of golf be traded for reduced maternal mortality?
1
Squanders is a polite word for the loss of credibility on many international and national fronts. Rather, Trump is just throwing away decades of hard earned alliances and progress. He actually believes himself when he touts the greatness of his achievements at the U.N. You didn't have to listen to an interpreter to know what much of the world thinks of his self proclaimed accomplishments. Don't you worry America, Trump is going to make some of the greatest deals ever. While the rest of the world deals us out wherever they can. The world is his plaything now because as he constantly reminds us, "I'm the President." Just like a child emperor, he'll leave behind all the broken toys, toys he hates and the toys he got bored with for somebody else to fix, find or replace. If it is still possible. Oh, oh the damage done.
388
@richard wiesner-Trump was telling a version of the truth at the U.N. He has accomplished more than any other U.S. President these past two years: for RUSSIA!
1
When I was a newly minted MBA graduate helping to negotiate a joint venture company across a boardroom table in Beijing with Chinese counterparts, one of my Chinese colleagues told me on a tea break that he and his peers had been instructed by their boss in the negotiations to constantly think on images such as foreign opium gun boats steaming up and down the Yangtze River, the burning of the Summer Palace by the British, and other episodes such as the humiliation of Shanghai being divided up by Western powers including America during the last century as the Qing Dynasty waned and finally collapsed. Many Westerners today simply do not understand the momentum behind China's renewed desire to return back to the "top of the heap" of world power and make recompense for past episodes where China "lost face". This editorial reminds us all that they are indeed well on their way back to the top and are determined to get there no matter what the costs might be.
51
@DB Chinese Emperors made some bad decisions in the 15th century that sent them into 500 years of decline, ultimately to be picked apart by the ascendent Western powers who had grown in the interim. Napoleon referred to China as a "sleeping giant". They sleep no more.
When 90% of Republican voters (mostly whites) support Trump and almost 50% of American (mostly whites) voted for Trump, the battle has been lost at home.
50
@Paul I’m neither a Trump supporter nor a Republican, but I’m not surprised by Trump’s continued support. The Democrats are nowhere when it comes to offering any persuasive ideas to win these potential voters. They still have their rapidly aging leaders and tired ideas - not to mention a pitiful collection of potential presidential candidates. They are not even waging a marginally effective battle for American votes. I, like so many other voters, am a registered independent voter. Both parties are aggravating me. Although Democrats haven’t earned my vote they will grudgingly get it in November. I fear that the 2020 election will be an exercise in futility if Dem leadership doesn’t clean house and energize soon.
1
@Paul
Never forget, the majority of Americans vote for democrats, but republicans have made it difficult for many of those votes to matter.
At some point the majority will grow weary of living in a right wing autocracy made up of extremists who have hijacked the country - but if our votes have been taken away, then what is our recourse?
3
It's not fully accurate to lay all the blame on our Cheeto-In-Chief.
Long before the Fake-Phony-Fraudulent Donald showed up, the Grand Old Propagandists paved the country over with decades of cultured stupidity that collapsed both the nation's IQ.
America's infrastructure is a notorious joke; a direct tribute to Republican abandonment of American civilization.
America's healthcare system remains a Kafkaesque act of economic sadism; the greatest medical rip-off in the world thanks to the right-wing refusal to treat its 325 million citizens with a modicum of regulatory respect and human dignity.
America's teachers are treated like dogs; a direct result of Republican contempt for labor and public education.
America's representative government is a right-wing sham, the byproduct of right-wing voter suppression, Whites R Us TV, hate radio, unConstitutional gerrymandering, the red state-rural-religious Senate and Electoral College demanding a 1787 interpretation of 2018, and the rigged Supreme Court validating a backward Robber Baron view of reality.
At least China admits it has one-party rule.
America is still pretending it's a democracy while Republicans have officially flushed their own country down a Trump toilet for some extra gold toenail polish on its billionaires.
At least China got some decent infrastructure out of their dictators while America got some potholes and a President who can't even speak English, let alone complete a coherent sentence.
November 6 2018
820
@Socrates, All true but not without one heck of a lot of help from the Democrats. And now they want to position themselves to save us from Trump. So help me if Joe Biden runs for President I will vote for Trump myself.
1
The GOP has never been for the 99%ers. I still don't understand why so many people vote for a party that does not have their back. On the other hand the dems are spineless and leaderless. Both parties are owned by big money. Until we change that our country will continue to plunge into a deep endless plutocracy. I think I will become rich and take advantage of the situation. All you other people might think about moving to China.
2
@Socrates
November 6 2018...
Did I hear CNN correctly today, that the GOP now has the highest approval rating in seven years??
Mr. Friedman, it’s an easy guess that virtually all the actions taken by Trump are bad ideas, and his actions towards China are surely no exception. You might want to remember though that his predecessor simply refused to take significant action in this respect.
Your praise for China sounds hollow. All the major upward changes in China have been achieved only where and when the communist government relaxed their control. And that breathing room is getting smaller and smaller, as Xi builds itself into the new Mao. I’m sure you’re aware that you don’t chart a prosperous, innovative future for a country by imposing again studies of “Chairman Mao’s thought”.
You should know better and see the rot behind the glitzy facade. China will never become a modern country until it gets rid of one-party rule. And that’s very difficult because China is also a colonial empire. The Chinese Communist leaders are right to learn from the fall of the Soviet Union, but that doesn’t mean that they can avoid it.
There’s a long bridge for China to cross until it will become a stable, modern and prosperous country. It has one of the three, but that’s we’re things get complicated.
7
It is completely clear that Trump is squandering our advantages, but there are some not even mentioned here.
"Think of all the starving children in America." Yes, they exist. It's not easy to find statistics, but it's safe to say that hunger among children is one to two orders of magnitude greater in China.
Inequality is rising fast in America. It's rising much faster in China.
Xi is the mirror image of Trump, a megalomaniac whose arrogance is sowing the seeds of China's coming fall. Trump said that only he could solve our problems. Xi has effectively tried to name himself President for life.
There is one somewhat comforting thing about dictators: When they die or fall, they leave chaos in their wake. A chaotic China is not something anybody should want, but it is arguably better than an imperial, hegemonic China, which is what Xi is trying to create.
Dan Kravitz
108
@Dan Kravitz: I hope you're right. And, personally, I wouldn't mind a chaotic China.
@Jon Harrison
I, as well as most people in the world, actually do not wish for a chaotic US as it does not benefit the rest of the world, perhaps we are a bit wiser!
China does not waste money on the intractable problems of the Middle East, unlike the US. China is not embroiled in religious and cultural debates, unlike the US. China is freely investing in technologies. However, is China innovative? Freidman should ask the University and Industry captains; the answers will be a no.
2
@AKA I would be really careful about assumptions about their lack of innovation. My dog is getting a cancer treatment that is based on Chinese research - produced in collaboration with a firm in Belgium. She is doing amazingly well. We used to say Japan could only copy- shoot my Subaru is a LOVELY car! My point is China is educating their brightest and best and will do just fine. They are a creative and hard working people.
5
@AKA*** "China is not embroiled in religious & cultural debates" ... exactly right ..
1
@AKA
Those top, world leading Chinese companies rose not because of innovation? It's utter bigotry to think another race cannot innovate! Needs are the mother of inventions, when you're behind, you buy, copy, borrow, or steal, it's cheaper! When you're at the top, you can only innovate to get ahead!
Why do we think countries need to “win”? If humanity is better off, who cares about whose whatever is bigger?
32
@William T
wise
1
@William T
Some still live in the jungle mentality, when there's only one earth, we all need to work together to safeguard this only one home we have!
The sane and reality based among us know this to be true : Trump is the single biggest mistake in our history. Why? Because his barrel is bottomless. The epitome of greed and ignorance, served with that special GOP sauce of racism and misogyny. And the misery is exponential, like Dog years, but Trump WEEKS. The Emperor of Ice Cream, cake and SPITE.
Contain the Crazy. VOTE in November. PLEASE.
97
I've been around Asia, mostly Japan, since 1957. As Friedman says, China and the U.S. are peers, economically. But their respective imperial leaders weaken each of us us strategically.
Trump's worst strategic mistake is not canceling our participation in TPP -- a WPA for bureaucrats, lawyers and big Pharma -- but in making prejudice towards Hispanics respectable among easily scared Americans which it had not been since the days of California's awful Proposition.
Xi Jinping has many qualities but his sense of history, like our old Manifest Destiny, goes in one direction, reestablishing China as the Central Kingdom, for the entire globe this time around.. And Chinese enterprise, running roughshod in the developing world, is at least as corrupt as the old United Fruit Company which inspired Che Guevara.
16
The so called training of ai algorithms is only applicable to the domain of the data set. Data on chinese consumer behavior only helps you sell to things to chinese people in china. Not a transferable capability. As usual freedman is a mile wide and 1mm deep.
17
I would go one step further in discussing our current advantage in immigration. Because of a history of immigration, we have a heterogenous population in which different ways of innovating are constantly being combined. This leads to remarkable synergy and truly new ways of doing things. In contrast, China has a homogenous population, and as Mr. Friedman notes often needs to steal and cheat to innovate. If our immigration and other policies to welcome foreigners are substantially reduced, don't be surprised if the Chinese decide to pick up the slack. If so, we will the ones playing catch up. This could be the real Trump legacy.
17
We have one other advantage over China:
American voters can choose to end our failed experiment in childish authoritarianism and restore a partisan but sane democracy in just two election cycles, November 6, 2018 and November 3, 2020.
China will eventually need to revisit the "freedom thing" and it will be messy. Compared to that, voting out Trump and enough of his complicit Republicans to get back on track, will be a jog in the park.
Of course, the longer we wait to restore sanity in our government, the messier it's going to be.
Still, I'll bet on the U.S. in a heartbeat. Just like all tbose "best and brightest Indian, Israeli, Arab, French, Brazilian and Korean immigrants".
21
@LT
Those 'best and brightest'? They're coming to Canada every day. By the thousands. And to Australia, Germany, Malaysia, Denmark, . . .
The US is no longer the only show in town.
164
@Karl Gauss. Indeed, as a parent of two of those best and brightest and an uncle to two more, all four are eager to leave the US as quick as they can. One to Ireland, one to Canada, one to the UK, and yes, the one who took four years of Mandarin in high school, to China
@Karl Gauss and a lot of them are preferring to stay back in their home countries as well...because the economies have improved so much that now no one wants to leave their families/parents and go through the hassle of settling in a new culture. The disposable income levels are higher, people travel around the world for work, vacations etc, and don't iss foreign brands locally because most foreign brands are already localized in the home country.
One of the best ways to combat and contain Chinese influence in the global stage was the TPP. Imperfect as it was, it offered a chance to have a bloc to combat and contain China.
But, with Trump trashing it, we have to fight it all alone because the rest of the erstwhile TPP bloc have joined, or will be joining hands, with China.
Recall the difference in outcomes in Gulf War #1 which had an assortment of partners and had limited goals, and Gulf War #2 that is being fought just by us with an open agenda.
Trump may like to believe that America is the only superpower left in the world, but he does not realize the benefits of forming coalitions to combat global issues.
7
@chickenlover Hillary was against TTP
My parents never ever told me about starving Chinese children. I doubt yours did.
Trump is a buffoon.
Unfortunately Trump is closer to the truth than Friedman on the issue of national power.
China is run by one faction of hereditary Chinese communists. Emperor Xi has made clear he intends to have hegemony in the world and over America. Because all the usual imperious blah blah blahs.
That is the reality on the ground.
I have no interest in “checking” China anymore than in “checking” Japan or Germany or California or Google or my neighbor.
“Checking” is a slogan for selling imperial stories to fools.
I do expect America to defend its national interests. Trump is doing a terrible job of it but by chance he is closer to the truth on China with his buffoon non policy than is Friedman. Better now than later and Xi has promised it is coming sooner or later. As in the story of the little red hen, Xi, who has done nothing to raise China to where it now is, has decided he owns the surplus value as his right to put America down and dominate the world for Marxist Leninist Maoist whatevers.
Only fools believe this conflict serves China’s interest.
And Friedman takes the bait. As usual.
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The US is too dangerous to be allowed to continue as the world's sole superpower. Trump's actions and his speech before the UN today make that absolutely clear. The US needs to be contained and its power balanced/offset by another actor. I wish that could be the EU, but it looks like it will need to be China. The problem is that this is not the first time the US has proven that it is too irresponsible and dangerous to have the advantages that it does. That reality was demonstrated with George Bush and the Iraq war. Trump is just a far cruder and more stupid version of Bush; he is different, too, in that he cannot even appreciate the ways in which the world economy benefits the US more than any other state. His stupidity and ignorance makes him especially dangerous (not that Bush was that bright). If two of the three presidents of the 21st century have proven to be gross incompetents who are dangerous to the world, why should the world trust that Americans will not continue electing such people? So, more power to China - while it may have no friends, the US has proven it does not want any friends and it is ready to abuse everyone. That is far worse than China, which still follows international law much more than the US and is doing its best to develop and sustain multilateral institutions.
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@Shaun Narine, the vast nation of China has many allies and/or near client states. It has also been investing in other nations at a great pace, including many in the powerhouse continent for resources coming into play, Africa. While we talk about walls and chase even our friends away, and "invest" in tax cuts for billionaires. As Russia knows, too, with what connivance on its part we cannot now know ourselves, America is being hobbled and shrunk by its leaders, and it will gain by our weakness as well.
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@Shaun Narine
When you are number 2 and the mafia boss is threatening everyone else, it is hard for anyone to step up against the number one to be picked on!
@Shaun Narine
While it is understandable for you to bash America, do not be taken in by China.
China has no compunction about circumventing international law. They do it regularly but very quietly.
As to multilateralism, China is quite proficient at gaming the system.
China may strong enough to be a counterbalance to America, but China is not the honest broker you seem to think it is.
“If data is the new oil, then China is the new Saudi Arabia”
Forget oil, Trump is still trying to revive coal!
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Trump walks in the office daily wondering how he can get Obama today. Policy nuance will never get his attention!
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Our President's part of the reason
Is mainly because there's no season
For a non-book reader
A brain transplant needer
That's the situation that he's in.
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The prediction business is risky. Like predicting that the Iraq war will bring democracy to the Middle East. Or predicting in the 1980s that Japan will rule the world. Or in the 1960s that the Soviet Union will prevail.
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This is an incredibly sad commentary. We have lost our way.
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"China is producing far more engineers and scientists than the U.S., and their quality is steadily rising." And Trump and the Republicans aren't doing squat about it. Future? What future? GOP types just want all the money they can grab right now.
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There's a very interesting old book called 'Flatland', by Edwin Abbott, which explains the inability of 2-dimensional beings to understand a 3rd dimension.
This is Trump's fundamental problem; he's incapable of understanding that most ideas are as far beyond him as quantum mechanics is beyond a child.
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@spindizzy. Thank you....Flatland is one of my favorite books ever and should be required reading for all.
They own us and our national debt.
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"If data is the new oil, then China is the new Saudi Arabia"
I work in data science and AI, and agree with this idea. But unlike oil, the knowledge that is needed to make data useful is more easily transported. In the small software company where I work, we have several exceptional employees who came to America for the opportunity to grow and excel.
China still has many regressive and inhuman policies, but things are getting better. America, the land of the free and home of the brave, has been gradually embracing incarceration and in some cases seems to be cowardly. The things that made our employees come to the US from China are quickly becoming less and less compelling.
America is a great country because we welcome all and entice the best with freedom, agency, and opportunity. I sure hope this is how we continue as a country.
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Trump is owned by Putin...China is renting him....trump owns nobody and China and Russia will eat him for lunch....
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@Tony You forgot North Korea. If you noticed North Korea's press announcements etc for previous presidents, its always frustration at not getting their way, because those presidents were tough, and the North Koreans could not find a way to manipulate them. But they read Trump correctly, they know what he is, and are doing the bare minimum to keep him happy - in short, they know him inside out and can play him like a fiddle.
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Is it realistic to assume that the "best and brightest" from China will never go home and bring their knowledge with them? It would be incredibly naive to assume not.
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@John Chenango, working with Chinese students in the US, I can say their knowledge level coming is at least on a par with ours, and their work ethic and sincerity are impressive. They are also devoted to their home land, with a deep desire to serve its people, but have also a desire to find friendship here. It's not right to consider them with belligerence, fear, or such anger as Trump fans between us and the world daily. We don't need to build a wall around America to be safe. We can work together to find ways to prosper, not to tear each other up to everyone's harm. There are global problems to face, in any case.... I don't think Trump knows the damage he's doing, or cares. It's all a show to him.
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Trump thinks he lives in the US of the 50's and 60's. He envisions himself as monarch of the world. While he folds his arms and snarls, tweets, grunts, lies, boasts and bashes, the Chinese keep their heads down and their eyes fixed on the long term prize, world economic domination. Trump is so out of his league it is any wonder he knows how to zip his own trousers.
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Two countries a new one with the blessings of geography, natural resources and an immigrant population striving to succeed and another with a culture that dates back many centuries with a population humiliated by the West in the relatively near past striving to be free of the shackles of the West.
Both are now led by autocrats, one severely flawed and stupid the other flawed but very smart.
Time will tell if one will prevail or both will cooperate.
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Who holds our massive debt? Isn't it China??? Are we kicking our banker?
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@lapis Ex
The largest holder of US debt (42%) are US individuals and US institutions.
China and Hong Kong hold 9.5%
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@Blue in Green - so China effectively holds 19% then...
So when are we going to stop buying China's various cheap, broken, poisonous, knock-off junk?
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@Chip When our lowest-wage workers can afford to buy high-quality, well-made, expensive products.
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@Chip Do you mean nearly every laptop, computer or cell phone available on the market? Apple products? Every "American" made vehicle with a computer in it? Clothes made from Texas cotton? Um... There's not much else left in the world. Even our steel gets exported to them to be make into items we pay a tariff to buy back. Some of our "American" steel companies are actually owned by the Chinese and American workers wages aren't rising, the profits are just going to the Chinese owners.
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"We should be doubling down on our strengths: immigration, allies and values. Instead, Trump is squandering them."
Trump is actually rejecting them.
Immigration? The Trump administration villifies immigrants (at least those not from Scandanavian countries) and refugees. They are aiming to lower our immigration record to historic lows. And Trump is so punitive that he is even willing to toss out the 'dreamers,' despite the education they received in this country.
Allies? Ask members of NATO what the alliance means to Trump. Or ask leaders of individual countries like Mexico, Canada, Germany, England, Australia and more. Or ask anyone who saw Trump's grotesquely self-satisfied performance at the UN on Tuesday, when he insulted the institution and boasted of (supposedly) putting America before everyone else and of trashing diplomacy and international agreements.
Values? Like pathological lying and womanizing, or greed, or bullying, or general irresponsibility, or promoting hate?
No, Trump won't have the last word on what the United States represents and, yes, he was elected by a minority. But he has taken us so far back, it's hard to imagine regaining our clout, let alone being a fearsome competitor.
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Our noble allies in Europe have the same concerns about China. They would rather have us do the dirty work and ride our coattails. Nothing new. Perhaps when a deal is made with China, the agreement should keep Europe from enjoying the benefits we receive!
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@Lindsey E. Reese - or then again China and the EU will create their own trade deals leaving a diminished US to pick up the crumbs... It's surely not a coincidence that your president seems keen to belittle these two trading blocs?
@NM
Immigration. To add to what you have said: Looking at just a macro view of the nation, it might make some sense to say that we should reserve jobs for our own people rather than welcoming immigrants. Drill down a bit and you will see that immigrants are young people who are willing to take a risk and work hard. We need them to build an economy that can support our aging population.
People are afraid of change and immigration does change the country. Demagogues use hate and fear to win power.
In this case, they damage our economic prospects by asserting that we have enough young people to do the work, innovate and take care of society's needs. It would be better if we could begin to take positive steps to move forward, but hate and fear don't facilitate positive steps.
A timely column, Mr. Friedman, coming on the heels of one more ridiculous performance by Trump at the United Nations, in which he was literally laughed at by dozens of world leaders. They laughed out loud at this buffoon, and rightly so. He is a disgrace. And as Mr. Friedman explains, Trump's actions are doing nothing but further devaluing our nation -- in every respect.
Trump has trashed all of our values of international human rights and the rule of law. He believes that neo-Nazis are some very fine people. He thinks that rape is a joke. And as for his supposed business acumen? There is not one economist of any standing who has come out in support of his antics, in trashing our relationship with our neighbors Canada and Mexico, and in the ignorant trade war which will harm millions of our citizens.
Angry? You bet I am. But not at Trump. I am angry at the tens of millions of people who voted for him. And who still stand in lockstep with him. It isn't Trump who has made our nation a literal laughing stock on the international stage -- it's his voters. They are the reason a disgusting, mentally unfit man has trashed our once fine country -- a country that other countries respected and looked to for leadership. That country is gone. And every Trump voter is to blame. Every single one of them. I will never, never, forgive them, for what they've done to my country. The majority of us hate the buffoon in the White House, and our patience isn't endless. There will be a reckoning.
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@Donegal Exactly! And while it isn't the majority that supports him in our faux democracy that doesn't matter. It's not the will of the voters, but the will of certain voters in certain places. They are apparently the only ones who matter.
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@Donegal
Every country is about the same: all of them have in their population the seeds of totalitarianism and will vote toward that type of political regime. The great difficulty is how to govern, as to have those tendencies contained, without getting to the surface.
Unfortunately, it seems that every democracy, at some point, will fall into disarray and disappear as such. We don't know how to keep those eternal values of freedom and human rights in our societies alive for a long time. The USA holds the record there, but perhaps not for too long, it might very likely follow the rest in that dreadful trend.
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@Donegal Do you understand that this kind of expression of vindictive anger (hatred?), no matter how articulate, is also part of the problem? That your feelings (contempt, derision, anger) are seen as a laudable sentiment is also part of the problem Anger, contempt, vindictiveness and hatred all feed the conflagration consuming our culture.
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