Canadians see NAFTA as a free trade agreement with some managed trade elements to accommodate special needs in each of the 3 countries. While NAFTA would benefit from inclusion of several provisions developed during negotiations of the Trans Pacific Partnership in recognition of technological developments (& while Canadians accept the need to finetune some of the managed trade elements), we deeply resent the aggressive extortionist demands & tactics deployed against us by the Trump Administration (TA) over the past 13 months.
Acceding to that evergrowing list of TA demands would not give us a stable new agreement as your President has made it clear that he will make new demands & impose new tariffs unilaterally at will even if these contravene a new agreement. He is also demanding that the current dispute resolution mechanisms in articles 19 & 20 be removed thereby reducing Canada's avenues to equitable dispute resolution channels.
Acceding to all the outstanding TA demands at this point would go a long way to transform the current free trade US/CAN NAFTA relationship into a mercantilist relationship whereunder Canada becomes the subordinate hinterland to the US.
If Canada refuses to accept these demands, those are the reasons. Regardless of the outcome of these negotiations, the thrust of Canadian international trade & commerce policy will be to expand equitable partnerships in Asia, Europe & Latin America & otherwise decrease our dependence on unstable US relations.
5
Once again we are reminded that we have a tragically unprepared and dangerously unprincipled ‘fake’ president who is an unabashed leech and an unrepentant liar. He should have seen that pulling out of the TPP gives China an open field to play in. He should recognize that withdrawing from NAFTA will harm many of the very people he claims to champion. He should understand that protecting dying industries to preserve jobs restrains the overall economy.
3
Meanwhile back at the ranch, world free trade is being seriously assailed, the EPA is being gutted, the CFPB is being dismantled, Dodd–Frank is being compromised, huge chunks of public lands are being sold off, and all while the FBI is being disemboweled.
4
The US should be concerned about American intellectual properties being misused by the Chinese. What would be a smart way of addressing this issue?
1. First team up with other countries sharing the same concern (e.g. Canada, EU, Japan, Korea, etc.)
2. Put up a joint negotiating position with our coalition on one side and the poor lonely China on the other.
3. Take advantage of existing trade blocks (TPP, NAFTA, EC) covering over 70% of global GDP to put pressure on China.
Instead the Donald
1) alienates other countries sharing the same concern,
2) tears up TPP which was designed to strengthen intellectual property rights
3) and uses a sledge hammer approach (tariffs) that only escalates.
Are we watching a fined tuned grand strategy here worthy of a stable genius? Or are we watching an impulsive series of misguided moves?
2
So are we going to drug test all those welfare farmers now that Trump says no worries I’ll just bail them out. If Republicans demand that anyone receiving public assistance has to submit to drug testing why not farmers? And in the case of corporate owned farms the CEO will do just fine.
7
'Free trade' is a lie and a misnomer. There are always costs. By another name, 'free trade' really means politicians sending MY livelihood to another worker in a foreign country for the benefit of an American corporation's bottom line. Displaced middle class American workers have paid a steep price for 'free trade'.
Stop the fairy tale about 'free".
3
The fact that so many Republican voters like Trump’s tax cuts AND his tariffs shows me that schools have failed Americans when it comes to basic economics and critical thinking skills.
6
The problem that Trump has with Canada is Trudeau; he is younger, smarter, more attractive and finally, Ivanka was smitten as evidenced by meme “PM steal yo girl” photos.
4
“Republican voters across the country approve of Mr. Trump’s tariffs almost as much as they approve of his tax cuts.”
Since tariffs are taxes how come they like tax cuts as well???????
This is not logical.
6
A disturbingly high per cent of Americans are governed more by emotions than a clear understanding of economic reality and the consequences of Trump’s latest buffoonery. On the tariff front, the U.S. shift from a production to a service and consumer driven economy has occurred gradually since the end of Second World War. This leaves the U.S. with neither the manufacturing capacity nor the trained workers to reverse this trend. So import tariffs will shield uncompetitive industries in the U.S., with the cost differential absorbed by consumers. Although median household income has recovered from the economic downturn of 2008-10, most Americans will either have to reduce spending or increase use of credit to buy higher priced goods. True. China’s unfair trade and foreign investment practices are legendary. But will this game of economic Russian roulette reverse this trend, or will our own economy suffer more from self-inflicted wounds? The jury is out.
5
There is nothing free about "free trade". The cost has been borne by American workers in loss of jobs and wages in return for lower prices on inferior products that require replacement or repair. It's a "bait and switch", the lure of cheaper goods in return for lower wages and less secure jobs. Americans are right to be angry about it, and for wanting this imbalance to end.
But the way Trump is going about it is wrong. The problem isn't as simple as slapping tariffs on imports, which obviously triggers trade retaliation, and ultimately higher prices and lost jobs as companies need to cut costs. As an alternative, Trump should've first put in place incentives for goods and services to be created here, and then given companies a choice: move operations here, or face the tariffs. In short, stop the incentives for off-shoring. But that doesn't play well with their rich donors and investors, so they won't do it. Instead, we get this one-prong approach which will again hurt average Americans. Funny how the wealthy never have to pay this price though.
As for Republicans running for office, they're the ones who pushed Clinton to sign NAFTA, and have pushed for "free" trade, so whatever price they end up paying I don't feel sorry for them at all.
4
I think Americans are missing the point that the rest of us out here have choices and are used to being played for fools by whoever happens to have bumbled into power down there. As a Canadian, being free of false friends is a relief and we will learn from this while knowing Americans never will.
5
Please remember that the majority of voters rejected Trump. We too are mortified by the despot’s shabby, inconceivable treatment of one our closest allies and biggest trading partners, and pray that you’ll stay with the rest of us while we work to remove him from office. We are losing our country down here— everyday Trump and his collaborators in the Republican Party chip away another norm, the rule of law and even our decency. If Trump continues to pervert our democracy in 2020, I hope you grant some of us refugee status in Canada. I am not joking.
14
The tariffs are really a dumb move. Today I had to purchase some specialty parts, and the prices shot up 30 percent because of the imposed tariffs. If this happens to Trump's base, especially small business owners, Trump is in for a rude surprise, and his plan will backfire, bigly!
12
I do not and never will understand why Trump voters want to pay higher prices for many items. I guess I could understand it, if it meant the jobs lost to trade 40 years would come back. But that is not ever going to happen. And no one except Trump voters believes the lost jobs are coming back. I think even Trump doesn't believe those jobs are coming back. But he has no qualms using that fantasy to keep his supporters in line.
32
The logic of the top GOP members seems to be that coddling the wealthy with tax cuts specific to them is fine, and exporting more jobs to south Asia is also fine. My only question is why anyone who earns a salary of less than $200,000 votes for the local GOP candiate for any office. I understand that guns, religion, abortion seem to be important to this group, but don't they also have an interest in improving their position in life with a higher salary, more job security, better health care and retirement security? Just askin'
24
More job security would come from reestablishing our industrial base.
1
@Jack P - Regardless of what they contend, I doubt many Americans would want to work in sweat shops at minimum wage any more than men want to go back down into coal mines.
Automization is a bigger culprit.
3
@Jack P
That’s less than eight percent of our economy.
Tell me why consumers should suffer higher prices or inflation, or why we should subsidize a manufacturing sector that wants to be shielded from competition— or worse, why should taxpayers pay soy farmers to make up for the business they’ve lost to foreign markets as a result of Trump’s trade war? What about American companies that consume imported steel for manufacturing here, the specialty steel we do not even make here? While you’re at it, ask Trump to prohibit robotics, AI and IT, since these developments minimize our “manufacturing base” as well.
We need to enforce our trade existing agreements, especially with China, but Trump’s trade war (“I love tariffs”) is just plain idiotic.
7
One thing Americans are not probably aware of is with Canadian marijuana legalization rapidly approaching another thing that will massively affect cross border trade is the plan of the trump/sessions administration to ISSUE LIFE LONG TRAVEL BANS TO ANY CANADIAN WITH ANY CONNECTION TO MARIJUANA: employees of government marijuana stores, investors, medical users, anyone to using any time, people involved in production. Years ago when the Canadian dollar tanked and cross border shopping virtually ground to a halt the businesses in northern Washington state really suffered. Even though marijuana is legal in many states apparently the dumpster will not budge on this. It is nothing to me..I do not travel..but IT SURE WILL HURT AMERICAN BUSINESS. Apparently the Seattle Mariners inflate their ticket prices for Canadians!
14
Mariners raise ticket prices for Red Sox and Yankees. It’s based on attendance not geography.
2
Marijuana is currently legal in nine states. Medical marijuana is legal in 30 states FYI.
1
When you understand how Trump is reviled and the fact the world will continue sans American arrogance then perhaps trade as a tool, not cudgel, may come back to Washington. He doesn't seem to understand Canada will walk away from a bad deal for her rather than accept uberAmerica impositions. Remember 30,0000 stranded travelers Canada took in on 9/11 when US airspace closed down or the hostages she got US out of Iran? Imagine how being told trade with Canada is a national security threat (another Trumpism) is going down? Maybe next time tell your aircraft to vector 180 degrees....
34
Do not lump all Americans as Trump voters. We are mortified that Trump has treated you so badly. Believe me, I not only remember 9/11, but I’m old enough to remember the brave actions taken by your government to smuggle U.S. diplomats out of Iran. You are our closest ally and largest trading partner. I am so sorry you must suffer (with many other nations) through the nightmare that is Trump, and am working hard with many others to elect a Congress that can impeach him.
7
When discussing Trump's Tariffs, the Times should more accurately describe them as Trump's Tax Increases. These tariffs will increase prices to US consumers, if passed along by importers (as they almost certainly will be). The alternative impact is that they reduce profits to the corporations. Trump's "Tax Reform" reduced taxes, temporarily for individuals and permanently for corporations... with one hand, Trump and Republicans give. Trump's Trade War Tariffs effectively increase taxes on all Americans and corporations... with the other hand, Trump and Republicans take. Of course, the "Tax Reform" gives a big handout to the very wealthy, while the Trump Tariffs will cost mostly those who tend to buy lower cost 'made-in-China' clothes, gadgets, and tech items. One thing becomes clear - Trump and Republicans have no problems with 'picking winners and losers' in the economy. And the winners are always the wealthy. How long before the working class and middle class people who voted for Trump and Republicans catch on to how they are being taken advantage of? "We'll see..."
21
A portion of the tariffs will be covered by Chinese exporters reducing their pre tariff parices. Another portion will be covered by importers switching to Bangladesh.
2
@Jack P
how will Bangladesh affect anything but some clothing items, for goodness sakes?
2
Who gets the money from the tariffs? And to what programs does it flow?
4
@Christopher Beaver
Tariffs, which are really just taxes, go to the U.S. Treasury as revenue. That’s why Trump’s trade policy is so hypocritical. He’s cut taxes for the wealthy, bigly and permanently, while taxing those of us who buy at Costco, Sam’s Club and my fav, Target.
3
If the Republicans opposing Trump's trade policies decide to put Trump 1st then they are not real Republicans.
7
Tariffs are a tax on all Americans.
31
What amazes me it’s the fact that so far no one has benefiting from Trump policies and tariffs. Policies and tariffs that many cheer and support but don’t even know what those are.
16
Tell that to the steel mill workers in Indiana that US Steel brought back.
Are you kidding?
The wealthy have benefited!!!!
2
@Jack P
No, they are a tiny, tiny, tiny minority that the rest of us are being forced to subsidize, for jobs that are being eliminated by AI, robotics and IT improvements. And meanwhile, you’re putting a much larger group of Americans out of work. Nuts.
1
It is claimed that many Republican leaders are supportive of free trade. Not so much, actually. They mouth slogans in favor of free trade. But if their leader, Trump, decides to destroy free trade, most have no objections. It was one of his campaign promises, and people like McConnell and Ryan supported Trump anyway.
6
Politicians will do whatever is needed to keep their jobs, no matter the issues, once they get elected they only fight to keep their jobs at any cost
2
American debt at all time high !
Why make it worse with Tarriffs ?
I repeat Debt is out of control!
7
Tariff substitution will mean more jobs for Americans , more income taxes being paid
2
@Jack P
Trump & Crew will come for social security, health care and the rest to pay for the tax reductions they engineered. That's the stated plan, right?
Who will get soaked, you? Or do you own a piece of the Buffalo Bills?
4
@Jack P
Whe world market is bigger so the Jobs will go abroad
3
While I believe the tariffs are more a regressive tax, further designed to hit middle-class and poorer folks likely to buy cheaper imports, and the hyper-regressive tax cuts, I believe the Times is failing its readers by relying on a totally unscientific poll:
Servicemonkey, the firm which did the poll relies on a sample of people willing to give up more of their shrinking privacy if they happen to answer one of its ads placed who-knows-where on websites, which require regular use of a Web-connected device to respond to.
WHERE THE ADS WERE PLACED - is probably the most important question to ask - many sites are either attractive to people interested in politics and following the matter...
Or end up on sites offering either American Made Only, import only or a mixture of the above...
Or on “social media”, the greatest back-fence-exchanging/place to float phony information ever invented.
So what use is this data?
None to any “Sadistics freak”. Or as the basis for making any kind of conclusion.
Ignore anyone who doesn’t even give you the source of the sample and a credible calculation of margin of error.
10
The answer to this quandary between tax cuts and tariffs, and why Republicans seem to be favoring both because of Trump, is simple.
First, Republicans have prospered on tax cuts for the rich. Now, with Citizens United, the tax cuts make the rich richer and the money flows down to elections which are now controlled by oligarchs.
Trump was elected by telling devastated factory workers of the middle class that he was going to bring their jobs back and restore their standard of living. This campaign promise was disdained by the Republican free-traders, because they never cared what happened to the workers. But they were willing to go along with Trump to get votes from disenfranchised middle class workers.
The real problem has been caused by American multi-national corporations who took American jobs overseas in the search of cheap labor to expand their profits. These corporations brought back the products they manufactured overseas without having to pay tariffs, maximizing their profits and leaving American workers without jobs.
Trump saw the need to get the jobs back so he created tariffs to try to force these corporations to bring their manufacturing back to the US. His efforts didn't work; the corporatists were not going to give up their profits. Only a fraction of the jobs that were taken overseas have been returned to the US. Coincidentally, that move also killed the unions in the US.
When the jobs never come back, we'll see what happens.
15
Jobs are coming back.. Unemployment is at an all time low.
1
@Jack P
nothing to do with Trump. thank Obama and the Fed from saving us from Bush-igans. and thank Silicon Valley and fracking for reinvigorating the American economy, contrary as the two are to each other. Republicans don't crash the economy until their second term, generally. Till then they pour gas on the fire to get the votes.
4
I have invested in those “global” corporations and as a result I was able to retire in my 50’s, that is what a free economy will do for you, however, you still have to have the discipline to sacrifice in order to be able to reap the benefits later in life.
Would bet most Americans don't understand that tariffs are an arbitrary tax on products they buy from outside the USA.
16
"Republican voters across the country approve of Mr. Trump’s tariffs almost as much as they approve of his tax cuts. 85% of the tax cuts went to corporations where as almost all the cost of the tariffs (tariffs are a tax) will be born by the average American consumer. A logical explanation escapes even the most vivid imagination.
37
This "nearly three million" person pool of SurveyMonkey "respondents." How was it accumulated? Volunteers who responded to ads? Personal recruitment? It would seem that however the pool was accumulated, it was hardly random. The surveys, while the results may be tallied using standard statistical analytical formulas and techniques, are unlikely to present an accurate picture of voter response in the polling booth.
5
80% of Republican voters support whatever Trump says. If he says tariffs are good, they'll support tariffs. If he says tariffs are bad, they'd be against tariffs.
24
A thoughtful economic analysis of price increases in commonly purchased products with and without the tariffs should do the trick for the democratic candidates for office this November.
7
Back in my time Democrats supported working people. Without an industrial base, we won't have any working people. Tariffs on one country, China, will help reestablish our industrial base. China built up its industrial capacity behind a tariff/trade wall. We can do the same.
1
Nothing stays the same, as the economy evolves so do the jobs
2
The 3 million respondents on Survey Monkey from whom the sample was selected are not likely to be a representative sample of US likely voters. That basic flaw makes the rest of the data-processing moot. It may be right within standard erroe, it may be wildly out of the true population.
3
@sumit
Understanding the preferences of less likely voters is important if you want to get less likely voters to vote.
The problem with the Democrats is that they spend all of their time trying to get Republicans to vote for Democrats.
The way to win elections is to give workers a good reason to vote.
The way to do that is to promise to tax the mega rich to invest in worker's families.
Workers make up 60% of the population. If you gave workers real reasons to vote FOR your candidates instead of running on being a lesser evil (worst slogan ever) Democrats would grow their base and win.
2
I don't belong to a political party and my opinion of trade policy is not influenced by who is making it, only by what the policy is. There has not been a lot of deep thinking going on in the White House regarding the consequences of the tariffs and the way they have been presented. The longer this goes on the more damage is done to the trust at the foundation of relationships between our farmers and other exporters and their customers not only in China, but in Canada, Mexico, Europe and elsewhere.
I am not convinced Trump truly understands trade or trade imbalances. He seems to think trade balances are a way of keeping score. He also seems to be under the impression the U.S. can provide all the products we currently import. The capacity does not currently exist and it is extremely unlikely the global companies that manufacture say, televisions, would make billions of dollars in new investment here when the next administration could remove the tariffs and put them at a disadvantage. Also, who would work in these new factories? Right now there are tens of thousands of unfilled manufacturing jobs. Why? Because increased automation requires workers with higher levels of education and different skills .
So far as political opinion goes, I doubt there is much deep thinking going on there either. People tend to parrot whatever their chosen media tells them.
34
Am I the only one who is concerned that Trump has acted pretty much like an adult for the past few days? I suppose I should be grateful, but I feel something sneaky is going on.
4
@Bill where have you ever seen that ?
2
"Last week, though, Mr. Ryan urged “patience” for Wisconsin farmers who have been caught in an escalating series of tariffs between the United States and China." How long does he want farmers to wait until their farms are foreclosed on?
28
@Jacquie, they get foreclosed upon anyway. Our "free-market" farm subsidies go mostly to large agricultural operations, not family farmers. Costs more but enhances "private enterprise".
10
Republican voters better learn fast that "trust us" is being a fool. It is just a matter of time before the tarriffs clobber Trump's base. Then it clobbers the American worker. SAD!
12
Do you think for one millisecond that anyone in the trump rally crowds - those self described patriots waving flags, wearing red baseball caps, and holding MAGA placards - have a clue what a tariff is?
Moreover, do they care what a tariff is?
46
@Stan Carlisle Bingo ! Maybe if someone hollered at them, Hey y'all the stuff you buy is going to cost more.
7
Their union leaders understand tariffs. That is why they back Trump in this.
The fact that the Chinese are so against these tariffs being levied tells me it’s a good thing for the US.
2
Shirley Chen,
Logic error there. Tariffs being bad for China is irrelevant to their effect on the U.S. Pulling the pin on a grenade and handing it to your enemy would be bad for your enemy, but it would be equally bad for you. The history of modern trade wars indicates that tariffs will probably be bad for China AND probablt
3
Wow you sure know a lot about tariffs don’t you!
How about you pay my share of the rising costs of consumer goods that result from these tariffs?
And the share of an additional hundred people.
We’ll see how you feel about tariffs then....
2
It is tough that many people can't think beyond their party's mainstream agenda. Must all republicans support Trump's visions? And must all democrats oppose it? Is this how we create political rifts and thus get our favored politician, who promises "complete change", elected?
I think Trumps tariffs have good intentions, with possible short term room for error. Democrats only acknowledge the room for error, and republicans support their candidate. Few actually care to look for the good intention or possible benefits, however difficult they may be to succeed.
1
@MH
Good intentions have a way of turning out very, very badly when carried out impulsively and without sufficient knowledge or guidance. A toddler might have good intentions when trying to save a goldfish from drowning by pulling it out of the tank, but for sure it's going to kill the goldfish. I have no desire to be that goldfish.
6
Once Republican voters get the full measure of Trump's economic policies, they'd better be able to eat their spite. That's about all they'll have left.
16
Tariffs could be useful if they were specifically targeted to remove the comparative advantage other countries have in low wages plus non-existent or weakly enforced labor, safety, and environmental rules. That could make sense. But what Trump has done seems clumsy and unfocused. Yes, Mexico has low wages, and government entities have occasionally been known to look the other way on safety, environmental, and labor laws. But Canada, Japan, and the EU have labor and regulatory costs at least comparable to, if not higher than, the U.S. And I can't see Canada agreeing to stop protecting its dairy farmers until the U.S. agrees to stop subsidizing its own.
21
Throw in with the free-traders and you throw in with the ever-shrinking remnants of discredited neocon elitist think tank crowd.
All the globalist free-traders denouncing all tariffs and knee-jerk anti-Trumpers (if Trump supports it, they are compelled to renounce it) are doing the bidding of the Davos elites but without a soupcon of self-realization to recognize it. The Koch brothers and the US Chamber of Commerce and the corporatist CEO's are beaming with delight and want to sincerely thank you all for carrying their water.
Find me a single 1%'er who is not a free trader zealot. Just one. Do you think the Koch brothers are spending multi-millions because they care so deeply about the welfare or America's shrinking middle class? They're just altruistic good guys who only want what's best for the country?
From bbc.com
"Powerful US billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch are funding a multi-million dollar campaign against President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.
Three political groups backed by the brothers say they will use advertising, lobbying and grassroots campaigns to push the benefits of free trade."
Charles and David send a heartfelt thank you to all those decrying tariffs. Looks likes their ad campaign is paying dividends already.
3
@Projunior
Thanks to free trade, globalization, America has made more money since NAFTA was signed than in all of the years of our nation's history combined before NAFTA was signed. Our neighbors to the North and to the South have benefited handsomely as well.
6
But where did all that money go? Certainly not to American workers, whose wages have remained flat for decades while the rich have become far richer.
13
@Projunior, so, because the global elite opposes tariffs, opposing them is wrong? Think deeper.
4
Essentially, every American wants to continue hurting America so they can get even more for less. I don't agree with Trump often but I think he should be even tougher on imports - to the point where America returns to making our own goods.
The sellout of America to foreign manufacturers created the depression of American goods from cotton to steel. The once omnipresent textile industry in western Virginia is now practically nonexistent while our department stores overflow with cheap (in both ways) rags from China, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc. Importing steel created ghost towns in Pennsylvania. Even Hersey candies are now made below the border.
At the same time, the American consumer is unreasonably taxed while the rich and corporations get huge tax breaks. Again, America is being sold out to satisfy special interests.
It shouldn't be a matter of genius to see the obvious dilemma that needs to be solved. It won't happen until the bozos in DC are kicked out of office and America is once again for America.
6
@Angelsea, I understand your frustration. What was your feeling about the once omnipresent textile industry in New England, now practically nonexistent, when it moved its factories to non-union locations in western Virginia, North Carolina, etc.
6
Dumbo brags about the effectiveness of tariffs, but so far what has changed? China has not given one inch and our other trade partners are not shaking in their boots either. As others have pointed out this is another example of the Trump style of bragging, without any provable results. Who ends up paying for this hidden tax? American consumers, especially the ones who love him so much and can least afford it.
21
The Chinese currency is in the tank and their stock market is lower by double digits,
Oh woe is the Wal-Mart shopper and the over-consuming American hoarder as prices increase on everything from shoes and clothing to big and small appliances/electronics. Maybe the American masses will now stop over buying so much junk that fills their closets, basements, and garages to excess. That $18 steam iron that broke after a year will soon cost $25 for the same inferior steam iron.
14
@Andrew, I remember the two 89c can openers from WalMart. Neither one could open a single can. I had to go elsewhere and spend about $3.00 for the same kind of can opener, and it worked every time. I wonder where these two kinds were made?
Trump voters like his “tough talk” on tariffs, because they are too ignorant to realize that, ultimately, this will be an increase on everything they buy. While the current crop of affected farmers get a bailout, it will not be sustainable. It will be interesting to see who they blame then.
38
@Roberta True that. Make fun of and when you can, punish people of color. When you catch them, put their kids in prison. When you can't, ban them from entering the US. Ban their products and their music.
And if the GOP holds the House, that's when the pogroms start.
4
I don't see the "quandary". If congress would stop taking money from corporations and act in the best interests of the people, this system could work. But Citizen's United transferred control of congress away from the electorate and directly into the hands of the deep pocketed, special interests. Corporations write the laws and pay congress to do their bidding.
And at the bottom of the swamp, we have Trump who has mastered one skill and that is short selling.
All it takes is a tweet and Trump can move markets. Anyone who thinks this huckster would pass on that opportunity is truly silly.
17
According to this article:
Democrats disapprove of tariffs and tax cuts, think Nafta is good for our economy, only 16% say are doing better financial now, and 61% of independents would vote democrat today.
Sounds like a Blue Wave is cresting … but…
…according to NYT’s very own fivethirtyeight.com, Survey Monkey is a biased polling site, which on a list of 19 polling services, SurveyMonkey was 3rd from the bottom, showing a bias of +5.6 points towards democrats.
This article is based on surveys by surveymonkey.
Thus we can conclude, this whole article is biased towards democrats by 5.6 points.
Translation – it’s conclusions are biased and meant to convince people to vote democrat.
Sorry, try again. This one was way too obvious.
1
@AutumLeaff
No, we can't conclude that at all. A roomful of people may average 5.6" in height but that doesn't mean every person in the room is 5.6" tall.
Likewise, SurveyMonkey's OVERALL error rate might be 5.6% toward Democrats, but that doesn't mean each individual survey is off by precisely that amount and direction. Logic 101.
4
The Midwest is not nationalistically rolling with whatever Trump does.
This trade war is generally viewed as stupid and catastrophic and if our Representatives don't do anything to try to curb Trump's power then they will soon learn that there are, indeed, term limits for ineffective Congresspeople.
It's not that fine a line when Trump's claim as a fighter for the "forgotten men and women" turns into an albatross.
9
The weakness in fighting tariff wars against China, the EU, not to mention Canada and Japan, all at the same time is that it drives China and the rest of the developed worlds into each other's arms. Maybe Donald Trump's tough actions will separate and conquer. But, it is just as likely that new trade deals will bring the EU and the other advanced nations into a closer accord with China and leave the US out. The idea that the Euro and the Yuan might replace the Dollar as the central world currencies is not out of the question.
14
Why would Republicans in congress love tax cuts? It seems to me we should be paying down the debt, not foolishly giving away money we don’t have. We are a debtor nation by any measurement. We go through each election cycle with the republicans screaming at the democrats about the debt and the other side of their mouth promising tax cuts. The last time anything was payed on the debt was by a democrat.
28
As is often the case, the questions are too simplistic. I am a independent in favor of a progressive tax rate. That means a increase for the "rich" (me apparently), and a reduction for the "middle class". What we have now is a bizarre inverted U shaped tax system. The poor can't pay and the rich have bought their way out of the system.
47
The Republican economic philosophy of free trade and markets have undermined the stability and the incomes of working stiffs in the rust belt. To this we can add automation. It's all about cutting cost and boosting profits for share holders rather than sharing the wealth with the labor force. One of the few things that has insulated consumers in the lower and middle classes from the sting of declining wages are cheap imports from overseas. I don't see the end game here where the American worker comes out on top. I doubt that pipe wrenches will be made in America any time soon.
17
The real issue for Republicans is that we're the richest nation in the world, and people in rural states run by Republicans simply don't believe it. The international trade system pre-Trump is the American system and it worked. It worked for the whole world, but esp the USA. It's not trade holding back our wages, our health care, our education.
Republicans would have you believe that somehow they've been held back from helping rural economies by regulations and taxes, but they run those states, in the last 3 decades democrats have hardly stood in their way and in the last 3 decades Republican policy has passed over and over again. Unions disbanded, school funding cut, teacher wages cut, record profits with record low taxes. When hospitals close, they don't rebuild them. When schools fund raise, they don't raise taxes. When monopolies are formed, they don't disband them. If you're not happy in this economy, you'll never be happy with Republican policy.
And the butcher's bill is coming due real soon. Deficit, oil prices and real estate crash, the usual Republican maladies are all coming soon and when they occur, the Republicans will insist that main street foots the bill. As always. While blaming Democrats, somehow, even though we've been through all this already with Bush.
62
@mjw beg to differ...US was once the richest nation. If it were the richest why are so many people homeless, living below the poverty level, struggling with hunger, low wages. Republicans want to cut out healthcare, Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, some retirement benefits, voters rights to oppose them. Even HUD wants to raise the limits on who can rent from them. Sorry we may be richest in 1% & militarily but not in citizen pocket books. The nation may be rich but the people are poor.
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@mjw
We're rich in the sense of the old joke pointing out that when Bill Gates walks into a bar the average person there becomes a millionaire. The top end is getting all the benefit of government policy while the bottom majority are slipping behind. So what does it mean to be the richest nation with the worst wealth distribution? One thing for sure, it isn't sustainable.
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We are the richest nation the world but all the wealth is hoarded by the top .1% and the Republicans do everything they possibly can to keep it that way. Remember when Obama said it would be good for the economy if the nation’s large wealth were spread around more equitably and every Republican in government immediately set their hair on fire screaming that Obama was a communist?
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The quandary? Hmm...Repubs have to use facts to explain to their base voters how tariffs are, or will be hurting them the most. Its the use of facts that are the obstacles, as they don't often rely on them, or their base being in knowledge of them. Least of all Trumplodites.
Facts used in Republican campaign speech is the quandary. They cant blame Dems, they cant blame an out of control, anti-American Dem POTUS. They cant blame HRC! Cant blame immigrants, or Unions. They need to educate their voters about the costs of tariffs to them, the voters, while avoiding blaming their demi-god Trump.
The Repub candidates need to use facts against tariffs that if used properly, will counter their beloved tax cuts.
1. Tariffs will raise the cost of goods their base rely on from cheap clothes to pork products, to cars and trucks and their parts. In many cases, cause their employers or local businesses issues with their abilities to buy at an affordable rate, from their Chinese sources, or those otherwise in the pipeline. Forcing them to quickly seek out less reliable, and lesser quality materials.
2. They have to admit, if they make a sound argument, the tax cuts didn't raise wages, didn't cause a huge reinvestment in facilities, but mostly lined the pockets of Corp CEO's, their stockholders and GOP donors. That despite a liking for the tax cuts, the Trump base didn't reap enough benefits to raise them over the many costs of the tariffs on Chinese goods.
A quandary over facts.
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Pork products, really? The US is the biggest hog producer in the world. If the Chinese won't buy , that will mean more for Americans at lower prices.
Understanding the concept that the costs of tariffs will be passed-through to the consumer is beyond the intellectual ability of a Trump supporter. They see tariffs as punishing the Chinese, and there is nothing more enjoyable to a Trump supporter then punishing other people.
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@CaseyPunishing the Chinese? It's also punishing your northern neighbor Canada for "no crimes committed." We Canadians even "buy more" from the USA than vice versa. And our economies have been profitably intertwined through NAFTA for decades. We aren't the Chinese up here. Why throw mud in our faces?
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Republican voters are getting the benefit of tax cuts and increased spending. Of course they love it. Republicans who are hurt by the tariffs will be compensated by the Republican run government.
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Trump doesn't care about tariffs all he cares about is putting money in his pocket and so what if the USA losses it's position as one of the top dogs in the business world.
This will give a whole lot of people a chance to see what the inside of a bankruptcy court room looks like and join Trump as one of them.
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If Trump thinks he can tariff Canadians into submission to his ways of thinking it’s only a reflection of his ignorance of Canadian-American history and a terrible lack of understanding of the character of Canadians.
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So Republican Paul Ryan tells farmer businesses they just need to be patient while Trump's brilliant trade policy of destroying their export markets evolves. Certainly they must understand that it will all work out and they will ultimately be better off. Well, if they believe that crock of hype then they deserve exactly what they voted for. Predictably, farmers are lobbying USDA's Trump administration Secretary of Ag Sonny Perdue and Congress for "emergency" subsidies to offset their trade losses. Guess who ultimately pays for all this trade distortion?
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This survey is obsolete. The same will have to be redone when the "Trump base” will start understanding that almost all they will buy at Walmart will cost them a serious chunk more. This will work again like a tax on poor and middle classes. Maybe they will start opening their eyes in the end, beyond meaningless slogans.
Those folks do not care about aluminum and steel. Wait for them to get hurt by home appliances, electronics, tools etc. Different music then, but November will be gone and Kavanaugh comfortably installed in the Supreme Court.
Political immaturity, plague of all democracies...
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The tariff war will give America away to the rest of the world economies who will fill in quickly and trade with China and each other. The US will never recover from this situation. Watch for China to enhance economies all over the world, especially in Africa. DJM
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If tariffs against China are popular with GOP voters, party officials will come around. Their lodestar has and always will be to pander for votes.
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They just need to time to poll-test new buzzwords and threw-word slogans for tariffs with their focus groups. Something along the lines of using’ job creator’ (yay!) to describe billionaires (boo!)
Favor tax cuts, favor tariffs - Trump seems perfectly aligned with the new GOP.
Previously, the GOP base disagreed with GOP think tanks (tax cuts and no tariffs) but had social issues to drive them to the polls. When they had someone better aligned with their economic views and tied on social views, they voted for that person.
Maybe all those GOP think tanks need to be thinking about something else.
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Republican voters support tariffs which are simply a tax on US consumers. Their purpose is to make imported goods less competitive and of course what domestic producers do (when there are any) is to raise prices. A classic demonstration of the entire Marxist notion that we should "Trust the people." The people in fact are pretty stupid.
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@John, Marx never said anything like that.
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@John - I'm not sure that's what Marx is all about. But it is clear from the empirical evidence that at least some of "the people" are pretty stupid. They voted for, and continue to support Trump, while he takes them for everything he can grab, and gives away their future taxes to the wealthy as tax cuts. All that debt will, eventually, need to be repaid. And guess who's going to be doing the repaying? Trump's voters.
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Revenue from these tariffs on Chinese goods can be used to fund further tax cuts for the wealthy.
The more corporate private jets in service, the easier it is for Congress to hitch rides, and gain instruction from their masters.
If Wally World has to raise prices, it's crooked Hillary's fault.
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Why would the surveys assume that those who support Trump even know what a tariff is?
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The article could have been written very simply, "Republicans mainly support Trump initiatives, whereas most Independents and Democrats oppose the initiatives."
The rest of the article appears to be trying to turn very inconclusive data into an long analysis.
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Apparently, many folks can't tie the minuscule reduction in taxes (average folks, that is) with the increase in costs of goods and services that have already hit us at the gas pump, grocery stores, etc.. The truly amazing good news is that more tariffs will only increase costs further. Will dtrump base eventually see they've been played and that they are poorer now.
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Was the survey of registered voters, or of likely voters?
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@Susanna Registered voters. We do ask people whether they plan to vote in November, but we don't have a model that tries to assess their probability of voting.
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Tariffs are taxes. That reality may hit home during the Christmas present buying season when tariffs, aka taxes on all those desirable imports from China, like electronics, leave consumers with sticker shock. Complicated issues like tariffs need have a simple understandable element for most people, and Christmas shoppers will get that element in higher costs.
Unless of course, they are putting a lump of now very available American mined coal under the tree.
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