Roger, every once in awhile I note here in comment land that I do not take any comment seriously that is based on what I call an n =1 anecdote.
Never in my wildest dreams could I imagine that a respected NYT columnist could engage in that practice.
I was wrong.
Don Colcord n = 1 made writing your column all too easy and all too forgettable.
IMWHOIM n = 1
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
58
New York Times opinion writers: Please stop going to midwestern states and using the various things you see out your window there to justify how things are "really going in the country."
173
Cohen who like Netanyahu couldn’t stand president obama also falsely equated Hilliary with trump. He is in fact a trump fellow traveler whose distain for democrats has long been abundantly clear. He is also a purveyor of fake news. Take for example his list of things small town people want that Dems ignore, supposedly. I’d say people in medium towns and big cities want those things too. And one last thing roger: Hilliary won the popular vote decisively, so how about columns wringing your hands about the minshevik losers running our alleged democracy.
79
Democrats need to stop pointing to western Europe. Europe copied FDR's New Deal policies. Americanize your policies. Just point to successes from New Deal era ( golden age of middle class) and return to it. Democrats need to label themselves "An FDR democrat". It fits on a bumper sticker and It will force media to discuss and educate Americans on FDR and New Deal legacy and force FOX Noise and rightwing hate radio to attack America's greatest President in 20th century. ( only president elected 4 times) You know, that democrat who rescued America from last Republican Great Depression and defeated right wing fascism.
Yes, Social democracy is working well in Australia,Canada,Norway ,Sweden,Germany, France etc.etc.... and in America it worked well under FDR New Deal policies. That's why cons call FDR a socialist. Most historians rank FDR next to Lincoln and Washington. Dems just need to invoke FDR legacy and not try to convince 1/2 of america that the word socialism is good .
C'mon people, messaging !!! Get rid of term "socialist". No need to wear this misunderstood term. Just invoke FDR legacy is all you need to do..... Americanize it !!!!
121
Has Mr. Cohen actually talked with any Democrats?
Because when one brushes away the Fox News fog from his column, there is no substance.
125
"The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time."
--- British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey speaking to a friend on the eve of the United Kingdom's entry into the First World War.
"History repeats itself ... first as tragedy, then as farce."
--- Karl Marx
30
Mr. Cohen playing the devil's advocate, interesting.
5
stumpy in 2016..... as reported in the NYT 8/9/16
“If she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks,” Mr. Trump said, as the crowd began to boo. He quickly added: “Although the Second Amendment people — maybe there is, I don’t know.”...
ironic ?
23
MR. Cohen is totally wrong here. So we progressives are supposed to just roll over because the other side might get angry or support their candidate. I don't think so.
1. I think Dimon should just shut up. He and his banking buddies almost killed the US in 2008 and got no penalty. However many small businesses where shuttered because of the financial collapse mostly engineered by bankers.
2. If I remember right the Republicans fought hard and sometimes dirty during Clinton, Bush Obama years. I don't see that it hurt them.
3. Re: Democrats in small town America. Maybe we don't want them anymore in the Democratic party. How can we care about many of the people who have done nothing to stop Trump from make America less great than before. Maybe also we might get gun legislation someday even if the rural America today still thinks it is better to kill 40 thousand people each year against the very unlikely chance that they needs those guns for a peoples army.
I could go on but will not.
Go Democrats....
19
wow. you make the best case for letting small town america keep their useless and dangerous president.
10
If Mr Cohen is a betting man, I'd be overjoyed to give him very long odds that he's dead wrong. A second term for Trump? Hahahahahaha--I'd even give long odds this criminal president won't be sitting anywhere near the Oval Office come 2020--perhaps in a courtroom, yes, but the White House? Mr Cohen, like the Trump supporters with whom he's spoken, is delusional.
37
Way too much to pick apart here. Like the coal industry, dying from much more than regulation for instance. To me the rurals are takers that can’t come to terms with that. Being takers they really belong in the Democratic fold. They’ve swallowed the Republican koolaid and refuse to see that Republicans are feasting on the problems Republicans have caused. Pride and ignorance rural America...you reap what you sow.
24
“... and yet tens of millions of Americans still admire him ...”. In that case, for the first time in my life, I’m ashamed to be called an American. Read a book, boys and girls!
22
Mr. Cohen, this is the most depressive op-Ed that you ever penned.
I do not think that Democrats are waiting for all the dirt Manafort has on Trump, but run mostly on a platform to not only help the neediest in our midst, trying to protect our planet, argue for universal healthcare, support unions, support a women's right to control her own health and body, support same-sex marriage, etc., etc.
Far too many of those who live from paycheck to paycheck - often having to work two jobs to feed and cloth their families - live in the boonies and fell for Trump's lies, promising them manna from heaven, and telling them that those "Others" are taking jobs away from them.
The arch-right attacks Democrats as being socialists - if not outright commie -, while the Democratic Party as a whole at least has a social conscience trying to fight the fact that the richest country in the world also has the largest inequality of all advanced nations.
And most of all, it should be explained to all voters that fell for the lies and boasting of the most inept, mentally confused, vulgar, racist, misogynist candidate that even before Trump became president Republicans in Congress had already marched in goose-step straight to the abyss of fascism.
56
We are stuck with Hurricane Trump -imagine Hurricane Florence be staying put for 8 years. Our nation is on a chopping block. God save us.
11
Meanwhile back at the ranch the EPA is being gutted, the CFPB is being dismantled, Dodd–Frank is being compromised, huge chunks of public lands are being sold off, and all while the FBI is being disemboweled
32
Your main point is the one all Democrats need to pay attention to. I hope many of them read your whole piece!!!
13
It all comes down to perps like Manafort and Cohen and all the juicy information Mueller can get out of them. It comes down to Democrats winning the House and getting Trump’s tax returns by subpoena and what is in them. A Democratic House can impeach, but if there is not enough evidence to sway the public, the Senate will not have the votes to convict.
Then Trump plays the victim saying Democrats are stonewalling his agenda and hurting the American people. If the economy remains hot, good luck to Democrats in 2020 – it would be close. The best hope for Democrats in two years is to be running against Pence.
I’m surprised by all the negative comments about this editorial. I don’t think Roger Cohen is being stupid. There is good reason to be concerned.
Are you helping to get Democratic voters registered and to ensure that their ballots will be properly counted in November? If you are not actively engaged in this process, then you are part of the problem.
21
Cervantes gave us the message. Hold up the mirror. The mirror tells the truth.
When Reagan said lies are easy and ended the Presidency of Jimmy Carter who told us to turn down the thermostat and invest in renewable energy he told us the truth.
The USA seems headed down the toilet and maybe taking the rest of the world with it. There is only one possible escape and that is telling the truth.
On the Day of Atonement we read the Book of Jonah. It is the only real miracle of the bible. The King believes Nineveh will be destroyed. He doesn't beg forgiveness , he doesn't promise to change, he accepts the judgement and gets to work doing what he should have done.
5
Vote for your Democratic candidate because Trump is really,really bad. He is vulgar. He hates minorities. He loves Russia. He is a bully. And all he does is lie. Roger is absolutely correct. The Democrats better explain how they will improve the lives of ordinary Americans if they hope to replace Trump.
10
You could have added too the main stream media's daily hysterics about Trump. Best example: When Trump justifibly took the NATOs members to task for not meeting their spending targets the media went berserk and attacked Trump rather than siding with the US!!!!! Just unbelievable. And not one story print or TV of the media asking the European leaders why they don't meet their commitments.
22
Amen. Blindness by coastal elites, coupled with a visceral disdain for business, may very well give Trump second term in office.
15
There is a fix for all of this but you need to get out of your box. Read, “The Age of Sustainability”.
5
At least VOTES will bring the end of this failed president, starting with the mid-term Democratic tsunami in November.
7
Democrats, pay attention to this article!! I am very concerned watching the Democratic pundits on TV crowing about how the Democrats will sail to victory, take the House and maybe the Senate, and it will be the end of Donald Trump. NOT. Democrats repeatedly fail to understand the anger of the working class/marginalized people who have been betrayed by the system, and repeatedly fail to comprehend the absolutely ruthless long-game strategy of the Republicans to exploit struggling people for votes while decimating our country as we know it, with their desired end being a plutocracy - run by those with extreme wealth, while the rest of us are serfs.
This is not the time for naive optimism, which has long been the bete noire of Democrats. It is time to campaign on the issues that have been hurting people - lack of affordable, quality healthcare, jobs, infrastructure, and education. They need a positive and highly aggressive campaign highlighting how people's lives will improve. There is no need to even mention Trump - unfortunately the human condition is such that a lot of people are pig-headed and will not listen to a reasoned argument. So don't make one! The Democrats need to say what they will DO, over and over, loudly and positively. Maybe we will have a prayer of ending the nightmare; but only if the Democrats take off the rose-colored glasses.
27
Yes, the Democrats need to do a better job of explaining what they will do for the individual voter.
However, it strikes me that the recent modest down tick in Trump's approval rating coincides with the Woodward book and the NY Times anonymous Op-Ed piece.
The Democrats need to ask the electorate the following question: Did you sleep better at night with Obama as POTUS? Fear (of a nuclear confrontation) with 6 more years of DT is an entirely appropriate emotion.
10
This 71 year old can be duly ponderous and fairly slow on the uptake.
Once again we are reminded that we have a tragically unprepared and dangerously unprincipled ‘fake’ president who is an unabashed leech and an unrepentant liar. He should have seen that pulling out of the TPP gives China an open field to play in. He should recognize that withdrawing from NAFTA will harm many of the very people he claims to champion. He should understand that protecting dying industries to preserve jobs restrains the overall economy.
27
We leave for Ireland in a few days. We will be back to vote in November in a state where your vote does not count. My flag remains in storage. Peace
9
True enough, the Democratic Party has done a miserable job explaining the ACA sabotage, how and why the Tax Bill screws the non rich in favor of the wealthy and corporate interests, and why the GOP will continue to ravage new sustainable job growth. It is indeed high time to stop blaming Republicans for pulling the wool over the eyes of middle America and place responsibility squarely on the ineptitude of the Democrats to create a unifying message and convince that what they stand for is on all fours with what most Trump supporters want and perceive they will achieve with this administration. All Hillary had to offer was that Trump was a bad guy. Now that most agree and it doesn't faze them, two years later, the Democrats have little else to add. How pathetic.
22
This article reminds me of 5-year plans. Totally useless.
7
Look, Trump is just plain stupid and unqualified to be President. He does not understand world politics or economics. He doesn't even know where most countries in the world are located.
He does not have a high IQ nor did he attend an Ivy League college.
He can't spell or speak grammatically, and he spends 85% of his time golfing, campaigning for himself in various states, watching TV, and railing on Twitter.
Yeah. This guy is our leader. (Keep sucking up to Putin and Kim Jong Un.)
12
Roger Cohen is prepared to even-handedly contemplate a two-term Trump presidency. That really needs to sink in. If you are wondering what's really behind the potential for a second term for Trump, it is this kind of cowardly abnegation of responsibility. There are few who could do more to hasten Trump's exit than a NYT opinion columnist. But Cohen has nothing to offer.
I don't think he is correct in any aspect of his analysis. He completely ignores the dominant element in any consideration of the future of the United States - the Trump factor. Trump is going to start a war next year - if he can - in order to ride a wave of patriotic savagery as a "war president" - a strategy that gave George W. Bush a second term.
Trump doesn't care about other people - and that includes the super rich. He probably hates them more than the people he doesn't like to touch. Envy would have to be a constant source of malign intent in a man like Trump. He doesn't care about the stock market - and anyway, wars make his stocks go up!
I defy any NYT opinion writer to debate that a completely optional nuclear war on Iran is not a reasonable prediction with Trump in the White House with a Republican Congress. Even a Democratic House might be inept enough not to stop Trump from starting a war.
And as far as Cohen and the others in the NYT op-ed team are concerned, all anyone can do is cast their vote once, twice, thrice and then just sit and hope. It is chilling to watch this wilful madness unfold.
14
"In rural Colorado, Obamacare is a disaster. Insurance companies have pulled out, and when there’s only one left, premiums go way up. Few people can afford health insurance at that price."
I live in rural S. Oregon and Obamacare is alive and well. Why is it so bad in Colorado? Do they have Republican control in the state? If so perhaps that's the problem, not Obamacare.
The author's points are very much on target. He isn't saying that these perceptions are true, however, they are real perceptions. The Democratic elites have not done a good job the last 30 years in protecting wage earning Americans. The Republican's have actively worked to roll back New Deal working class benefits. They are winning the public relations war with FOX entertainment and talk radio.
283
@Sharon Thank you, Sharon. It is amazing how many ignore that the ACA was battled constantly by the Republican Congress. They weakened it and made it as difficult as possible to institute and administer. They refused to properly fund it as a start up. The Republican-led states followed suit and blocked the funding and administration, making it difficult to get the enrollment needed to make the system work. Every other leading nation, including Trump's admired Norway, has universal health care. The ACA needs help, but the US needs the ACA. Trump and his followers will not support it because it has Obama's name attached to it. Just tweak it, call it Trumpcare and they will be fine with it.
10
Another reader wrote "Mr. Cohen seems to have consumed too much Fox News kool-aid" but the problem may be the drinking of that kool aid by to many voters.
Democrats past, present and future support strong educations, good health care, small business initiatives, and opportunity for all willing to work hard for it.
But FOX news, and billionaire funded propaganda have in the past confused people. The question for this falls elections is will more voters see thru that crap or not?
My money and my hope is more are waking up to the Republican con, some even in small towns.
After all the Republican con, despite what some hope, really only benefits those with gold plated bathrooms.
10
Rest assured that Trump fails the "hard work" test as well. When he launched his campaign for president, a former close business associate told an interviewer, "I can't imagine him doing a job that involves doing something every day."
Apparently Trump supporters consider him hard-working because he signs so many executive orders. Even non-supporters may be impressed by his energy for campaign-style activities. However, that's not work to him; it's a form of gluttony. He can probably lash himself through a heavy load of golfing, too, as long as he has a cart to ride in.
Even Trump's "work" as a businessman has consisted in scheming, ordering, and -- as it's expressed in "dumb Southerner" territory -- running his mouth. Donald Trump is one of the few people of whom it's literally true to say, "He's never done an honest day's work in his life."
19
Leave the new Democrats to do what they are doing - to win. They are not ideological but address issues of the communities they live in. They are not upstarts or Washington insiders who are jaded, smug and ideological, far removed from reality. It's about time Nancy Pelosi and her peers step aside and encourage these new Democrats into their fold. November is two months away and the House and even the Senate can be won. Then Trump becomes a sitting duck to be surely convicted or at least a lame duck with plenty of time to tweet and watch Fox News. I am almost certain that's going to happen unless Nancy Pelosi and her peers shoot the Democratic Party whom they profess to love in the foot. They have done that in the past. I hope wisdom takes over and vanity is forgotten.Recognize the truth.
4
We need to stop entertaining intellectual curiosity articles about trump and hold him to account for doing everything from obstructing investigations to enriching himself by refusing to divest interests. The GOP dominated congress will obviously not do anything which makes them culpable. The people themselves need to rise up vigorously to oppose this evil clown and the GOP which through blatant gerrymandering and tampering with voting rights and mechanisms to colluding with Russian meddling have become quite adept at stealing elections.
16
Yes Trump has an unshakeable base and his Republican enablers in Congress, having made their Faustian bargain, continue to support him even as they loathe him. But the tide will turn when red staters find coal sludge in their water; when the disability and unemployment checks stop coming; when they suddenly find out there is no Medicare and nowhere else to turn with burning lungs from breathing in particulates or an overdose of opiates; when soybean and corn farmers have to let their crops rot in the fields because they've lost their export markets; when tariffs start to bite other businesses; and when stock market crashes elsewhere in the world finally affect our own. I still say he won't last two terms, maybe not even one thanks to Mr. Mueller.
12
Although I mostly support Trump, the Democrats have completely alienated themselves from to many voters.
The plans I consider unworkable, completely open borders, amnesty for illegal aliens, and talk of repealing the 2nd Amndt. are alienating to many voters. The Democrats didn't even hint at infrastructure last election.
There was a time many voters would vote for people on both parties. I voted for Bill Clinton and Carter twice. As things are I will continue voting straight Republican.
9
I'm tired of this nonsense about Democrats having no ideas except bashing Trump. It's hard not to focus on Trump when he eviscerates norms of politics and governance every day.
Yet when you have a Democrat who has a lot of ideas - whether Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, etc.. - they get mocked as socialist loons.
What was Obama's "Big Idea?" I couldn't tell you. He was just a smart, thoughtful man who did his best every day to make government work for people - in the case of Obamacare even for people who would end up voting for Trump. We had eight years of economic recovery, a lot of legislation and regulation to promote public health and safety, and the comfort of knowing our government was being led, for the most part, by a group of rational people.
49
These "small town" people got themselves into the mess their in by prioritizing guns and god over their own economic interests. They sat idly by when Reagan started the movement to eviscerate labor unions and further enrich the already wealthy. Then they bought the cynical and despicable explanation that it was all the fault of handout seeking minority groups and poor people. They will find out soon enough that Trump is just another conservative fraud. It took the Great Depression to usher in 40 years of Democratic dominance of Congress. Trump is well on his way to depressing small town America sufficiently to cause it to happen again.
21
The latest major poll shows fifty percent of the country in favor of impeaching Trump. This is not the recipe for a second term.
But of course, the Democrats are fully capable of blowing their lead and probably will find the way to do it.
11
This may not be the end of Trump, but his re-election would surely be the end of America.
17
All the issues that the Colorado pharmacist talked abouit were issues that Dems have an answer but Republican answer is to condemn the Dems answer without a logical alternative.
It seems to me that the Dems are on the right side. Climate change, education, taxes, health care , trade, budget deficit, social security, medicare, need I go further. In all these issues Dems have a position, the R's just say no. We can't just do nothing as these know nothing R's propose. The 17 year war that Republicans aren't paying for or have a solution for will defund any chance to improve infra structure. This is the legacy that R's want to leave our children.
22
Democrats do need to get down and into the nitty gritty of people's lives. They do need to articulate these problems simply and strongly. And they need to repeat repeat repeat their message. Suffering Americans can't waste time trying to understand abstract and complicated issues and solutions. They need to KNOW that Democrats will guarantee that everyone gets health care, no matter what. They need to KNOW that Democrats will go immediately for solutions for their problems, even in the short term. Our broken financial system is as much of a threat as The Axis powers in WWII. We need a massive intervention to bring our people back to feeling secure. Democrats should be remembering FDR and his quick and effective interventions in l933. Rules for employers: minimum wage, the 40 hour work week, no part-time, short-term employment unless the employee is enrolled in education. ABSOLUTELY health care. Medicare for every person who is unable to afford health insurance under our current system: without having to declare disability.
8
There are brilliant people out there who have managed to get millions of New Yorkers, who enjoy perhaps the finest municipal water system on the planet, to drop a dollar or two for a bottle of what they could get for a fraction of a cent from the tap. They sell cars with commercials that have absolutely nothing to do with any motorized vehicle. They tell us that shipping is free and that by virtue of choosing the right beer we will be young and beautiful and immensely popular. It should not be too difficult, therefore, for these same geniuses to sell Democratic policies and positions to Americans who would actually benefit from their implementation. Democrats need jingles. They slogans, mascots, and PR people who understand that how a message is packaged is at least as important as the message itself. When Trump said that Obama's speech put him to sleep he was speaking for countless others, people who don't get the message because it wasn't entertaining and there wasn't a Labrador retriever in sight. Time grows short. Democrats have valid and constructive programs and policies. Now find someone who can sell them to the people they need to reach.
10
Very well written Mr. Cohen. Must say this article comes as a surprise from your usual. Anyway, I just attended a so called mini reunion of high school class members. Try as we may, we ended up talking politics, as everyone seems engaged. Most were over whelmingly supporters of Trump, for the simple reasoning, everything he campaigned about he is addressing, and some issues have been implemented. When that list was discussed, economy, unemployment, trying to bring back some manufacturing, addressing immigration, the Hillary camp has no contrary offering. Net is, as Cohen writes, right or wrong, people who support Trumps policies , really don't care about his Lady friends, his liberties with the truth, and his being suspect of Treason, and facing impeachment. I personally have yet to hear what the Democrats are purposing on these key issues, or who they will run to replace Obama. Trump supporters in our group intend to vote for him again unless of course the Democrats can get him impeached or force him to resign.
8
It's an odd politics that requires a party to punish its own voters to stay in power, but the GOP has managed to create, nurse, grow and fully rely on just that. I'm not sure the Democrats have the vision, to say nothing of the will, to counter that effectively, and so the dilemma.
In earlier times, existential crises provided the motivation and clarity to make the changes needed. We need a Lincoln or a Roosevelt, but none are in sight. Are we destined to suffer calamity just to find one?
6
I writing this letter from North Carolina where Hurricane Florence is currently doing to much of this state what Hurricane Harvey did to Houston and its surrounding areas last year. There are more than a few similarities. Both states had legislatures that let business concerns decide where developers could build regardless of putting buyers in harm's way. They put sales ahead of science and now have the dubious reward of trying to justify it. The evidence of climate change has gone from being compelling to incontrovertible. You can get another home; you can get another job. Lots of luck getting another planet.
18
The likelihood of Trump winning a second term has been greatly diminished due to his declining mental health. While he likes a fight, he has never faced this degree of scrutiny and criticism on a daily basis, and on the world stage no less. As we have seen over and over, Trump cannot handle criticism of any sort.
After a lifetime of operating the way he has with shady business dealings, constant lying and the fleecing of others, the chickens have now come home to roost. He is in a hell of a mess of his own making, and the rats are leaving the ship. He is more isolated now, and his mental health will further decline. He won't go down with the ship; he will figure out an exit strategy as he is pure reptilian.
Yes, he is going to fight back and do more destructive things for a while longer, but no person can withstand what Trump is experiencing and not start to crack up. I also think the Republican Congress is going to tire of all of this even though they are getting much of their agenda done under him. For all we know, they have back room plans and ideas for how to ditch him when he becomes no longer useful to them.
With all of this, I think his base will never abandon him. They won't want to admit they got behind someone like Trump. Rather, Trump will abandon his base as he was never there for them in the first place.
19
The economic recovery has been going on for nine years at a consistent unrelenting determined pace since the catastrophic Bush recession. Yet in this ninth year trump asserts he inherited "a mess" and incredibly claims ownership for the whole recovery, including the low unemployment rate. In truth he's been blithely riding the economic recovery success coattails of his predecessor.
21
Yes the economy is strong...but farm income is falling across the U.S. and Trump's base in long on farmer support. The tariff war with China continues. Yes the Democrats need to put a strong plank in their platform on education...probably it should be financial support for higher education since students will need a push to ensure that they show up to the polls. But women are sure to recognize the anti-feminist policies and tone of both trump and the GOP leadership. It's early yet to see how FEMA responds to our latest hurricane. Their track record isn't too good. No---I think the Democrats are in a good position even while our nation at this time is not.
4
Sigh, Mr. Colcord has a very strange understanding of the Democratic and Republican Parties’ platforms and how both his state government and the US government work.
Much like the author, he seems to credulously assume the Republican Party actually stands for something beyond destroying government.
13
Given what we already know about Trump, the confidence that nothing he has done will ever persuade Senate Republicans to vote for impeachment is all we need to know about them or the party as a whole.
It doesn't matter if Trump gets a second term or not. As long as Republicans have a strangle hold on our government, we will still be in real trouble.
They all have to go.
But what Mr. Cohen seems to be arguing for here is for Democrats to run as GOP lite - ignore the very real problems we have - "because it doesn't play in Peoria" as the old cliche has it.
Democrats have policies that work, but stink at marketing - especially against the GOP propaganda machine media. Republicans are excellent at selling snake oil - but they keep killing their customers and getting away with it.
There's a couple of things Mr. Cohen should take into account. Clinton won the popular vote - the electoral college screwed us all. The way the Senate is set up, the 'majority' of the Republicans in the Senate only represent a small fraction of America's population.
Democrats represent the wishes of the majority of the American people - but the way we elect our national government is tilted against them. That's the problem that may get Trump a second term - and why Republicans are working so hard to rig voting in their favor by every means possible.
And spare me the knee-jerk worship of business. It's the most anti-democratic force in America today. Ignore Colcord.
20
Go into any public place in one of these areas and what's on the TV? There is the problem. They don't know who is screwing them.
19
Mr. Cohen hit the nail on the head.
Despite the best efforts of the media, their message is not resonating in the flyover states. Probably because 70% of the country didn’t trust them *before* Trump was elected, now having witnessed the relentless, over-the-top daily reports of the falling sky, every mind they’re trying to change has stopped paying attention.
Trump can absolutely win again. He’ll be a lame duck after the mid-terms, but when 2020 comes around if the Democrats are going to try and sell some far left-wing candidate during a time of unprecedented economic gains and historically low unemployment, they’re gonna lose. They've got to stop pandering to their fringe and move to the center.
The benefit of centrist leadership is that everyone is somewhat dissatisfied, and we can be united in that dissatisfaction in numbers which can bring about real change. That unification pits the people against the government, as they should be, rather than splitting the country in two.
Warren and Biden don't have a chance. Right now the only prospective candidate who fits the bill is Michael Bloomberg. As a New Yorker, I despise the man. He littered my city with bikes, drove rents skyward, and has a penchant for dictating lifestyle choices, but politically, he's as centrist as you can get. Moderates on both sides will get something they like and something they don't, and the extremists will be left without a voice. Finally.
Also, the guy probably never even heard of Twitter.
2
Trump could win another term. It is not out of the question. I believe it would be impossible for a democrat to speak to the middle of the country and to hyper-conservative democrats in a way that they feel they need to be spoken to. This country is too big and has too many people to think small and still meet the supposed needs of the middle of the country. There is no going backwards. Coal? Coal is killing us. Abortion? It should be women’s choice. Guns? We are not in the Wild West or the open range anymore and guns are not appropriate sometimes. Education? It costs money to educate kids and prepare them for the world we live in. Teachers need to make a livable wage. Healthcare? People cannot live healthy secure lives without it. Healthcare costs money and takes time and energy to provide. Regulations? Without them the divide betweeen rich and poor will get bigger. That is just the way it is and no republican is going to cut taxes and regulations, ditch Obamacare and make those things go away. The world is changing and moving forward but these small towns dont want to move forward. They don’t want to take responsibility for their own part in their lives and the lives they have created for themselves through their votes. They don’t want to acknowledge that the bargains they make with corporations are the reasons they cant fish in their lakes and streams anymore. Making the government smaller and cutting expenses is not the way to tackle this worlds challenges.
8
All Dems do is propose policies that across the board would be better for these mythic "real Americans" than the boatload of GOP lies they end up supporting instead. How dare liberals try and address real, complex problems with real, complex solutions. Clearly until they start demagoguing and outright lying they haven't learned how to respect and appreciate small town America.
11
Sad, but most likely true.
Actually, I don't see him stopping after two terms, I think he will do his best to keep the office until he either dies or can pass it on to one of his offspring.
1
As a Canadian, it still astonishes me that any American could see the Affordable Care Act as a "disaster" - the disaster isn't the act, it's the undermining of it by big money.
19
I live in a small town that voted for DJT. Our population is plummeting. Last June, our high school graduated 25 students. It once was at least 5 times that number.
People here are religious and angry that the undeserving get "handouts." What a combination! They believe that the city slickers take "their" money and give to the lazy and criminal elements.
There are also the gun lovers who have the stop the Safe Act signs on their lawns.
They hate and fear blacks and immigrants.
I have no doubt that these people would vote again to elect Trump to a second term. They will also elect representatives who support him.
One problem is that my neighbors have disproportionate political power. That advantage is magnified at the national level.
"Reasonable" Democrats don't have a chance because my neighbors believe that Republicans are their friends. Fox News tells them that and they get chain emails and "like" those Facebook posts that are designed to foment disunity.
13
Trump's greedy ego had a stroke yesterday. There is no information that Manafort has that will lead to impeachment or indictment of Trump while in office mostly because he bought himself a SC judge and has a compliant GOP Congress.
Trump had a fit because in 2020 or 2024 when he is out of office, NYS could begin the proceedings regarding his money laundering and tax evasion which might lead to him having to make financial restitution. He will never give one cent of HIS money to anyone ever. He needs another 4 years to squirrel it away and delay, delay, delay his day in NYS courts.
As for Mr. Executive Time being "hard working"? Please do not insult us. The man is lazy too and either won't or can't read briefing papers at a minimum. Even Dubya Bush did that.
While I too am frustrated by the seeming lack of a Democratic voice regarding policy, our candidates in the midterms have addressed their local constituents and are doing well. There is a lot of time between now and the 2020 elections for our national candidates to come forward. Why give Trump twitter fuel now?
Trump's tweets still fuel the pumps but the cheap gas he is selling is starting to erode the engine. He has self-serving messages only.
And we know he plans to play the race/immigration card to the max to keep his base close. And a bullish Wall Street is starting to send the wrong message to those who have nothing involved with billionaires.
7
Well, OK, but "Medicare for all" sure seems to resonate with people in rural areas and small towns, no? When Republicans take away Social Security and Medicare, as they've been itching to do since 1980, it's possible rural voters will realize they've been voting for the wrong party all along. Nah, who am I kidding? They'll never get that they're their own worst enemies.
12
Roger
Republicans don't address these issues. Obamacare was a very good beginning for healthcare, who stab by stab destroyed it, the Republicans. The most amazing healthcare plan they talk about, was nothing more than cheap talk, nothing.
The amazing tax cut benefits the donor class nor the middle or the poor. But this tax gut will actually raise the deficit and will, therefore, need cuts to Medicare and Social Security. Conveniently these are programs Republicans want to destroy, the voters in muddle America not so much.
In regard to those wonderful coal jobs, the workers died of black lung disease, were paid extremely poorly and damaged the ecarrh as well. Why not retrain for clean jobs in clean energy? Certainly the future and save the planet as well.
Education, 4 days, that tax money went to the donor class. Why would Republicans wish to pay for education, for better educated and a skilled workforce? No the better educated dont vote Republican.
When will middle America see that the Republicans are selling smoke and mirrors and the Emperor is naked, dangerous and incompetent?
Hopefully, someday soon we will know truth from lies.
13
Republicans will keep winning just up to the point when then crash the whole country again and then they'll hand it off to Democrats who will immediately get the blame.
6
ummmmmm NO.
Disagree strongly with the premise here, that Democrats are "out of touch" with real people.
Solar energy creates jobs; fossil fuel kills them.
Better education creates jobs; cutting funding kills them.
Diversity in the workplace is not a bad, but a good, thing.
Environmental regulations keep land, air and water clean.
The Democrats don't need a better message; the Republicans need to stop LYING about Democrats' message.
1012
@RoughAcres
Solar energy builds some jobs because its heavily subsidized by the government. Remove those supports and it dies.
@RoughAcresTyping I totally hear this, and agree about solar, education, diversity, and the environment. However, if we seriously want to save our country, Dems need to stop telling GOP and Trump supporters that they are idiots, then making demands on them to stop lying, etc. Because they won't! Dems need to get off those high horses and take a good hard look at the messages their are sending out and sort out why, in places, they are not getting through. To stop finger-pointing and shouting might make a good start. Dems also need to work on their electoral strategy. We don't have to have a majority to win in the US, so it's best if everybody knows the actual rules and plays the electoral college game because it's the only game in town. Not every Trump supporter will flip, but a lot will flip if the Dem message is positive and strong and if we listen instead of shout.
This article fairly states the problems that the Democrats face but misdiagnoses the cause. It is because the Democrats have embraced so-called Progressive values that they are alienating so many middle-of-the-road voters.
Cohen is also right that impeachment by a Democrat House is likely and removal by a Republican Senate is unlikely, all of which will redound to Trump's benefit and re-election.
Conservatives will soon have two conservative and highly intelligent Justices, thanks to Trump. And with his re-election, he will be able to put three more on the Court.
1
Hard work? Yeah, Trump fails on that one, too.
Still, I have to admit that I am worried that Trump could, in fact, be a two term president. I am old enough to remember that back in 1982, Ronald Reagan was not a very popular president. And he did pretty well in '84. While I understand the dynamics of partisan politics (not to mention national demographics) have changed a lot since '84, it does not mean Democrats should become overconfident that we're looking at a one-term president with Donald Trump. The Democrats still need to nominate a candidate who is personally appealing, has a positive agenda, and who can stand up to Trump during the long, grueling campaign for the presidency.
321
@Raindog63 - Where the heck are they going to find such a person?
1
@Raindog63--Ronald Reagan trounced Walter Mondale in 1984 with a 49 state blow out. Now that's what I call doing pretty good, right???
In my opinion Mr. Colcord provided the perfect message Democrats should communicate in the current election cycle and in 2020. A balanced message of support for business, action for displaced or at risk workers, godf educational opportunities, and guaranteed access to affordable health insurance is a winning message with most Americans.
3
The grievances of rural Colorado are real. What is not understandable is how they think Republicans will implement policies that will improve their pocketbook issues. What Republicans will do is stoke unrealistic fears that Democrats will swoop in, confiscate their guns, take away religious freedom and give unearned rights and benefits to gays and blacks while throwing open the borders to all manner of illegals. They somehow will fail to notice that the Republicans do nothing for their pocketbook issues. The fact is that even poor performance by a Democratic administration is likely to actually improve their situation but it is easier to believe fear mongering and lies than actually think about which party cares enough to govern for the benefit of all.
500
@DCN - Shhhh....don't reveal the actual program and policies of the Democrats until they are safely in power.
@DCN I agree with you DCN and upset with Cohen here as he seems to miss the inability to state the empty promises of Trump, the harm he's bringing to these very people and the Republicans for their catatonic allowance. The education we are all getting through the catastrophic mistake of Trump's administration cannot go on. It cannot continue.
1
“The Democratic Party has lost the ability to communicate with people who live in small towns. It seems to have no way of understanding their issues: how to pay bills, how to have a retirement, how to feed their families, what to do about bad schools, how to get health care, how to do better at creating new jobs when environmental concerns take them away.”
Why are these just "small town" issues? They affect city folks too.
The dominant narrative that elevates small town grievances over elitist city dwellers is becoming tiresome. The income inequality blanket is large enough to smother the whole country.
840
@Puffin
On the other hand, I spent many years professionally trying to persuade politicians of all stripes that rural poverty was as bad as urban poverty (and often worse), just not as concentrated.
They made sympathetic noises but weren’t really interested. What politicians look for is the big hit publicity for themselves and their party. When you can claim to have created a project for a whole district, that’s big publicity (and a lot of votes).
Pardon my cynicism.
1
@Scottie Your claimed anecdotal experience aside, the center of the country has always had access to all the same support programs as any city-dweller. In fact, they receive more federal benefits relative to what their states put into the coffers than larger cities and more populous coastal (blue) states. Republicans reject business regulation and want a free market. Well, many successful large employers do not want to locate in small towns. The free market dictates the economy in that regard, not the Democratic or any other party.
@nelson elliot
I should have mentioned I was talking about the UK situation. Welfare benefits for individuals are, of course, universal here, but special government funding for perceived additional needs, such as assistance to deprived areas, is decided by the politicians. I must study more about how things are different your side of the pond!
The most fraudulent, and unfortunate, fake narratives pushed by the Republican Party are that Democrats don't understand or face the issues that worry residents of Colorado, and that people who choose to live in big cities are Liberal elitists, somehow ignorant of what is going on in the rest of the country.
I live in New York City and left New Mexico - the Land of Enchantment and a geographical place I love - where I was born and went to college, because there was little enchantment in terms of a future to be found there. I moved here because I wanted to live in an endlessly interesting and stimulating city, with career and job opportunities, lifetime educational opportunities, all the culture I can taken in, and to meet a diverse population of people that didn't exist in New Mexico. I love NYC for these reasons.
It would be surprising for Don Colcord to know that most of us get up every morning and work long hours, and fight for raises and promotions and forward movement just like Coloradans do. It would be surprising to Don Colcord to know that as men and women age and get pushed out of the competitive workforce here, that they worry about Medicaid and healthcare and rising rents and interest rates and pension and retirement like everyone else. And climate change. And Paul Manafort. And people who are getting battered by Florence.
Donald Trump is the only elite here, promoting himself and his brand above all else. Those of us who voted for Hillary always knew this.
803
@Giselle Minoli
The other thing is that there are millions of people in New York and Los Angeles who are from farms and ranches and little bitty country towns who are still in love with the entirety of America even if they aren’t back home bucking bales. Seriously, this separation of fly over vs. the coasts is a shallow trope!
2
I live in rural America, in which the small towns are dying. Much of it has to do with modern machinery. Where fifty years ago, the work on the farms was performed by hired men or high school kids, that work no longer exists as the machine does the labor. Farm land taken out of production reduces the need for fuel and fertilizer, adding to the woes of the local providers of these products.
Now with Trump's tariffs and retaliation by China and others, it is apparent that agriculture will suffer from loss of markets. This will only expedite the demise of the small towns.
Heath care did not suddenly become more expensive because of the ACA. It has continually outpaced inflation for more than fifty years. If the Republicans had supported the ACA, it would have worked better with lower costs and unforeseen problems could have been fixed. But they chose a different path, one that aimed to destroy it.
The problems for the Democrats are gerrymandering and voter suppression by the GOP, getting out their voters, and Fox news.
12
I am sure you are right about the attitudes of a lot of voters. But I strongly object to this notion that Democrats have no message: they stand for equality, rule of law, fairness, institutions working the way they're supposed to. All of which the GOP, even before Trump, eviscerated.
There is a troubling false equivalence between Mr. Colcord's dissatisfactions with the GOP on one hand and Democrats on the other.
But you're absolutely right: Trump can win in 2020.
5
Speculation of this nature is pointless until Mr. Mueller has his say.
He is looking for things that would sway the opinion of most of the Republican Senators, and it is certainly possible he will find it.
It is a complicated issue. We don't want to be in the election nullification business. But we also don't want to encourage future "Trumps" to do the reckless things that Donald Trump has. It is reckless for anyone with his past to run for the highest office in the country (e.g. many business dealings with very shady characters).
4
"Theory went to swim....but drowned for lack of practice". Is it possible that democrats, the more humane and open-minded of both parties, have forgotten the 'little man', the one living by the day, absent a cushion in the stock market, with the anxiety of not knowing how best to provide food and shelter to his family, let alone decent Housing, Health and Education? Personally, I do not believe for a second that democrats have relegated social justice to those unable to deliver it, the privileged few up there with a social distance that makes them unable to understand what's at issue. What is needed is a dedicated cadre of activists to explain the costs of our current inequality, and the barriers we need to break to recover the opportunities to belong and achieve, able to contribute for a change so everybody gets a more equitable piece of the economic pie. Trump's brutish reign promoting 'fear, hate and division' is not the answer, however cultish his awful lying personality suggests.
4
If your job, for whatever reason(s), has you living day to day, isn’t it the height of irresponsibility for a grown man to have a family? Maybe if they focused all their energy on their job they’d be in a better position
1
Every election year, Democrats are accused of lacking a message. But look at any Democrat's platform and the messaging invariably includes planks for jobs, living wages, affordable education and health care, as well as fewer tax breaks for corporations and the super-wealthy.
The problem today is not messaging. The problem is breaking through the stereotyping of both parties that has hardened into established truth, despite little to no resemblance to reality. Why are Republicans seen as wiser stewards of the economy when after each Republican presidency we've had increased deficits and debt? Why are Republicans considered better on foreign policy despite recurrent fiascoes in the Middle East? Why do working people continue voting for a party that routinely leaves them worse off than before by means of resistance to wage increases, unions, and affordable health care and education?
The answer is not complex: Republicans dominate popular media, especially radio, by means of the donor class who own and operate such media. They have won the propaganda wars. The American people read less and less and choose poorer and poorer sources of information. That's it.
1417
Run that Trump boast that Republicans killed Obamacare on a loop. Make sure everyone understands we now have Trumpcare. Tell rural communities that the money that used to pay for their schools is now paying for yachts and Lear Jets for the plutocrats who own Congress. Tell them crops are rotting in the fields because there aren't enough migrants to pick them, and formerly lush forests are on fire while Republicans deny climate change and promote fossil fuels. Maybe facts can drive an election result for a change.
1575
@David Johnson
Facts should drive an election... but only if Democrats learn to be effective at getting the message out. Democrats are, unfortunately, not very good at public relations.
1
I think that if Democrats are really focussing more on Manafort than the voters than Trump has essentially succeeded at changing the narrative away from governing and toward Tweets. However, I don't think this is true. I think the press is "doing its job" and reporting on all the Trump misdeeds and potential illegalities. So let's place the blame where it belongs and not create a false narrative.
All the issues you mention, Roger, that the Democrats are failing at communicating on, are issues Trump doesn't touch. The only thing that Trump has done is reduce regulations, which protects businesses against environmental and worker protections. Sure, if we don't care if a worker gets injured, and can get compensation, or if the water and air becomes polluted, then I guess that makes Trump a genius. Also, he has jacked up the stock market with tax cuts which created a much better bottom line for businesses but increased the deficit.
Are there more small and medium sized businesses we want to help through the tax cuts, or do we care more about the workers? It is problematic to pound away at businesses, agreed. It's also problematic to worry about protecting the spotted owls when an opposition like Trump demagogues the economy and the then swears he will improve it...and it is believed. And it is difficult to run on decency, competence, and an end of the type of chaos created by Trump.
5
It’s true the Democrats have lost their ability to relate to the working class. Meanwhile, the GOP has painted a beautifully elegant set of lies that low unemployment equals prosperity and uplift for the working class, that tax cuts fir the rich somehow will find its way to the vulnerable and that “fiscal responsibility” depends on who gets the windfall of deficit spending.
This shouldn’t be hard for the party of the New Deal and labor.
And yet the GOP has somehow convinced the Dems to play a lukewarm version of traditional Republicanism.
6
This Opinion displayed a very very narrow and outdated focus. Flint, Michigan does not have clean water restored, we just witnessed a catastrophic gas infrastructure failure in Massachusetts, the whole country is watching the battering of the Eastern coastline and millions fleeing inland. Schools and teachers all across the nation are severely underfunded.
We are sick of constant harping by commentators on "the economy" and "jobs" . These are empty concepts as these phenomena cannot be addressed and these problems solved without concerned (about communities) sharp legislators being able to run without spending millions of dollars for campaigns.
You are really out of touch if you think that the horror caused by Trump everyday is going to go on until 2024.
6
Tweeting is not hard work, Roger, regardless of how much potus does.
9
"But I don’t see the Democratic Party owning the education issue."
If the Democrats don't own it, then who does? This was one of many off-base observations in the article - it barely made any sense, as far as I can see. I'm wondering why it was thought to be worth publishing.
3
As a dyed-in-the-wool democrat, I agree that Democrats do not own the education issue. They are owned by teachers unions who mostly focused on teacher benefits. I have watched for 30 years as teacher unions have raised retirement benefits and passed the buck to the future. That bill is coming due now.
We need fewer teacher unions and a better way to represent the needs of students.
1
The Democrats are good enough or bold enough liars.
That is the crux of the problem.
“I don’t see the Democratic Party owning the education issue.”
Sounds like you missed the teachers strikes.
Judging by the rest of your column, you missed quite a bit of other news as well.
7
If you think teacher unions striking for higher wages somehow translates to the average American as "Democrats owning the education issue", you need to leave San Francisco more often.
Teachers in CA have health insurance, benefits and pensions and most of them retire in their 50s. Sure, sure we'll all heard the stories about how they pay for school supplies for their kids. But to the average American working in an Amazon warehouse or swinging a hammer, the striking teachers sound like entitled whiners who are causing chaos in areas where the schools shut down and working parents have to deal with the consequences.
3
"President Trump, in his sublime indecency, fails the test on all these qualities except perhaps hard work, yet tens of millions of Americans still admire him."
He spends too much time golfing and watching TV to pass the hard work test.
9
Roger, if you're reading this you are my favorite writer out of all the NYT and WaPo writers combined, but I think you are wrong. Today marked the beginning of the end for DJT. We have all been waiting for the cognitive dissonance which we liberals/radicals have been feeling to spread. The President set himself up by praising Manafort. He can try and walk that back with "four legs good, two legs better!" But that was the end for the Pigs on Animal Farm and it will be the end for him to.
3
What is the Democratic message and platform?
Trump, Trump this, Trump, Trump that, Trump, Mueller, Cohen, Russia, Manafort, Stormy Daniels?!
Is that how they are planning to win the elections?
The party whose entire action plan consists of concentrated hatred for a singe man doesn’t deserve to win the elections,
regardless what kind of person the incumbent is.
To “untrump” America is for the losers who don’t know what to do with their lives.
Listing all the Trump deficiencies and failures cannot help this country. The progress can only come from correcting the mistakes all of us are making, but not those specific to a single person…
8
Mr. Cohen, I generally regard you as one of the sharper opinion writers at the Times. I think you are absolutely on to something with this line of reasoning. I have a question for you- and I believe it's a significant if we are contemplating the issue of small town America's disassociation with the Democratic party. Did you bother asking Mr. Colcord about guns? You blithely dismiss that issue in two short sentences, the second of which ends with the thought that it is obvious that gun people are utterly wrong. I believe you are showing the very condescension on that topic that you decry in the rest of the article, and that that personifies the entire issue.
1
Yes, Roger, this is the end of Trump.
3
I'm so glad to live in a Small Town America, in a county & state that's virtually totally blue.
Yeah we have plenty of working class white guys with pickup trucks, sporting that 'Breaking Bad beard'...
And of course they're generally wearing their trucker-caps to round out the look. But you never see one that's red.
There's American flags on porches aplenty (since our state was, after all, where the first battles of the Revolutionary War were fought). They even named their football team 'Patriots'.
Church-going folks? There's spires & steeples proudly proclaiming the center of our small towns.
We even have a (sort of) republican governor this past term.
Are we suffering the shift away from manufacturing?
Heck, this region invented manufacturing in America, & there's plenty of empty old mill buildings to attest.
Our manufacturing bust happened long before the Rust Belt was even built.
Did these folks ever even think of flocking around some miserably corrupt, lying corrupt bigot like Trump? Not a single county in this state flipped red in 2016.
So you see it's possible to live out in beautiful small-town USA, right here in red-blooded Rural America, without being backward bigots, trashing our environment for big business or voting for Trump!
Rural Redstate Americans should consider this before piling onto the myth that being committed to the country & small-town American culture means committing to Trump.
Donald Trump doesn't know a darn thing about rural America.
40
Maybe Mr. Cohen could go to your hometown and interview the folks
3
Do your homework. TABOR, a Republican invention, is something Charles Koch is proud of. It freezes spending in Colorado to 2009 levels, our weakest . We cannot raise taxes for schools because of TABOR.
15
What percentage of the school budget goes to retirees.
5
You mean to tell me Chuck and Nancy's so-called “Better Deal” isn’t generating massive excitement of the working class?
Dems better get it straight: Republican-lite centrism, incrementalism, huge military budgets, and “lesser evilism” didn’t work in 2016, might work well enough to take the House in 2018, but really won’t work again in 2020.
3
Where in the world did you get the idea that Donald Trump works hard?
54
Roger Cohen should keep in mind that three states determine who wins the presidency--Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I still cringe whenever I remember how Barack Obama and Mitt Romney crisscrossed Ohio in 2012 all the time in a desperate attempt to secure those crucial electoral votes. The other 49 states didn't matter at all. For awhile I thought Obama was going to relocate the nation's capital from Washington DC to Toledo Ohio.
Want to take a whack at who won those states back in 2016???
3
Conservatives have been in full control for a couple of years. Why not attend to the needs of Colorado? Why not present them w a better plan for education and healthcare? Why not HELP?!
3
Mr. Cohen: Let's wait for the Mueller report before we re-elect Mr. Trump. It may be so damning that enough Republican senators will not be able to ignore the obvious.
4
@dbg Probably not. If nothing else to date has stirred them, the report won't, either.
2
By now for Americans life is a competition , a zero sum game. You only share if there is enough to go around , even then what is yours is yours , you earned it . Anything that has the slightest smell of socialism is beneath contempt. Mr Trump has understood that better than anybody. He promised you you'll win . That is all you want to hear , as long as you see that as the only basis to run a country on you will be stuck with people like him.
4
"President Trump, in his sublime indecency, fails the test on all these qualities except perhaps hard work, yet tens of millions of Americans still admire him."
Hard work? The guy has spent about a third of his tenure on a golf course. You're conflating "hard work" with "loud". If I could get every news outlet and social media feed in the country to report my daily tweet that "I just BRUSHED my TEETH. Cleanest teeth EVER. The other sides' teeth are FILTHY. SAD!!" you might come to the conclusion that I was an exceptionally hard worker too.
6
The Republicans own the country and have for many years now, so where are their fixes to all your complaints? The Dems have ideas, good ideas, but the media and the public would prefer sound bites rather than digesting and dissecting meaty (and often boring) proposals.
Re: Obamacare. What kind of medical coverage did these folks have before Obamacare? I'm guessing none, so how are they possibly worse off?? If the Republicans had worked with the Democrats on this issue, a truly workable plan might have been achieved. But McConnell was determined that Obama would score no victories his 8 years in office. So not only have the Republicans done nothing when in control, for many more years they impeded whatever progress might have been made in so many arenas.
Two-terms of Trump? You will see rioting in the streets, I've no doubt.
9
Cohen is right. Democrats should care about and talk about the 100 million Americans who have been left behind. They are not a basket of deplorables. They are our people.
4
Fine, the Democratic party has not developed an idiom comprehensible to a range of uinder-served Americans. Show me something the Republicans are offering that is better - besides undermining the health of the planet, its people, and further securing those who already have more than the rest of us. The idea of 'trickle-down' economics always cracks me up - doublespeak for 'we'll give you a trickle to make you think our water is for your benefit, but keep your grubby fingers off the faucet.
5
The media driven frenzy of this era is also responsible. Where is Walter Cronkite when you need him to speak to Middle America?
3
Mr. Cohen, you've set forth the laundry list of how-and-why America's political "system" is a bust. And to support my strong belief the country must be peacefully dissolved into confederations of the like-minded and let each go its own way, boom-or-bust: economically, morally, politically. Simply stated, the "Who cares?" aren't worth the time, energy, and resources by those who do and are tired of footing the bill for corruption of-and-by those who don't or won't.
1
I'm confused. Most of the things being complained about in this column came to pass under the Republicans. So why are the Democrats being criticized for them?
One exception is, of course, the Affordable Care Act. This is easy to criticize; it is far from perfect. The only problem is that to replace it the Republicans offer *nothing*.
8
You really do just ignore the possibility that many of Trump’s continued supporters are just plain stupid or racist or mean. Or likely some combination of the above. Is everyone else just supposed to legitimize this? No thanks.
4
Thanks for acknowledging the fact that we get lousy GOP leaders because the Dems are not doing their job. Those of us who live in Blue states are witnesses to some of the most extreme income inequality in the nation, racism, real estate segregation, violence, and the highest taxes. Gee, maybe we are doing something wrong, too! Bad government produces worse government. After all, we got stuck with Bush Jr. for two terms, and he was the worst president we ever had. I guess now Trump is vying for that dubious honor. We only voted for Hillary because she was the lesser evil. I'm guessing Bernie would have stood a better chance with working Americans?
1
This makes absolutely no sense. Democrats already have all the issues on their side. Health-care, sensible gun control, middle-class tax cuts, job transition (dirty coal to solar/wind), etc. You are not factoring in pure racism and xenophobic sentiment by many Trump supporters. Democrats don't have good messaging? What exactly is the message Trump (P.T. Barnum) is promoting....c'mon, your being ridiculous. I'm really tired of having to listen to mostly white "small-town" America. Democrats need to start listening and supporting African-Americans (and other minorities)....the backbone of the Democratic Party.
6
I do get what you're saying because it's been written about by you and others over & over. A nice simple solution -- find a good candidate (not too this, not too that) and focus on health care & the economy (stupid). Fine. Is it possible when you write an article the next time that you could eliminate the word "elites?" Is it possible the next time that you could acknowledge that the Democratic Party voters out-voted the winning party, but because of the kink in our system, lost? I'm sitting here in my NYC living room, just as concerned as Mr. Colcord about my health care, retirement fund, rising taxes, and, in addition, the rampant homelessness on our streets. And, btw, our streets are also filled with thousands of young people coming from Colorado and elsewhere to find themselves and jobs, and guess what? We welcome them, and lots of immigrants too, with open arms. Lighten up on New Yorkers.
14
Trump cannot lose with the economy hitting on all cylinders and with everyone making tons of money.
I vote with my wallet.
Whomever can keep the economy strong has my vote wether it be Trump, Cynthia Nixon or a pigeon.
Voting Trump.
3
It's not a bad thing for Roger Cohen to warn and to remind us that beating The Devil(s) in November and in 2020 is not in the bag. Remember Hillary's 80% plus prediction of victory ?
I disagree that it's mainly the Democratic message that failed us. It took years for Republicans to paint Hillary and liberals as anti-American elitists. It's time for Democrats to do some painting of their own. Forget the screaming mob who attend the rallies. They're hopeless and, yes, deplorable, but decent people outnumber them.
The message only needs to be that Republicans have lied and are incompetent. Tell voters their lives depend on running them out because their lives do depend on it.
8
Listen carefully, there’s a very loud cracking sound. It’s Trump, all alone on his Ice Floe, about to ride out to Sea. And still gesticulating wildly and ranting incomprehensible gibberish about Clinton, fake news and witch hunts.
VOTE in November. Make America SANE Again.
10
Chaos may not do the trick, but a certain prosecutor named Mueller and his team seem to be closing in.
How many more pins need to be knocked down before it’s ‘game over’?
4
I disagree, Mr. Cohen. And my reasoning ignores the word "impeachment."
No, Mr. Trump will not reach two-terms because of Edgar Allen Poe. You see, Poe wrote The Tell-Tail Heart, which describes a man who committed a murder, confessing to the crime simply because of the unusual activity inside his brain.
Now, it is questionable if Trump has those two organs, heart or brain, but he is unable to disconnect his guilty thoughts from his mouth or his Twitter-finger. He thinks he's clever, but he is more obvious than a preschooler with cookie crumbs on his mouth, denying he was in the cookie-jar.
Trump says he loves the heat. He thrives on the hot-seat! Right! With Manafort entering a plea deal, the meat thermometer reading says "stick a fork in Donald, because he's done."
3
What an utterly absurd column. Clinton talked, ad nauseum, about how to pay bills, how to feed families, what to do about bad health care, and how to do better at creating new jobs. But "what about her emails" and "lock her up," along with racism that put away the dog whistle and pulled out the bullhorn, fed the insatiable maw of racism and self-pity that is truly the driving force for so many of these self-indulgent, self-proclaimed "real American" small town voters.
10
It's untrue about the miners not getting a hand from Dems when mines are shut down. There are retraining efforts to help displaced people but many don't seem to want to be bothered. The republicans have sabotaged the ACA instead of trying to fix it and have come up with nothing to replace it. I'm sorry but most of Trump supporters seem willfully ignorant as long as they get to be openly racist.
7
Am afraid that small town pharmacist in Colorado has his hat on backwards. It's not that I am not sympathetic with issues facing small towns but to blame environmental concerns and favor coal is just plain idiotic.
How exactly have the GOP or Trump helped in matters of healthcare and pollution... which first pollutes the large city. Yes, the DEms have to be more measured but to accept this odious individual in the WH and sell America's soul?
A resounding NO. That individual maybe a Democrat but he has lost his way or belongs to the older demographic.
5
Roger: Perish the thought. Trump capitalized on several angles to win the Electoral vote in 2016: Sanders' supporters who refused to vote for Hillary, Comey's outrageously mistimed rebuke of Hillary's looseness with her emails, millions of voters fed up with Washington politics, and Trump's "drain the swamp" mantra. Those elements will not be there in 2020. There will be no Hillary to kick around, under Trump the swamp has become more infested, and most suburban women who voted for Trump are now appalled at his behavior. Unless the Democrats put up someone abominable, Trump, if he even lasts until 2020, will be history.
4
A lot of anecdotal baloney. Since it looked like Republicans would try to take Obamacare away from its roughly 22 million recipients, support for it has steadily grown. It's impossible to say whether Trump could be re-elected but approval ratings in the mid 30's and disapproval at 60% don't seem particularly promising.
14
There is much to question concerning those people's opinions.
Was healthcare less expense before Obamacare? Has medical costs and services improved since Trump? Is the education issues better under Sec. Devos and the GOP? Lamenting the demise of coal is like trying to save the livery stables and blacksmiths who shod horses. Time marches on--coal is obsolete. Someone should tell these people that guns are OK. It is the easy proliferation, and military style killing machines that have to go.
And last: I'm certain the republican party communicates very well with the average Joe. Hmm--town meetings by invitation, if held at all. Of course, the GOP is known for placing the interests of the working man first, and the Fat Cat's interests second.
The phenomenon of people acting against their own best interests tells a sad tale of human evolution.
4
Cohen unfortunately spouts all the mis-information about the causes of small-town U.S.'s plight. Look at these issues more closely and one sees the Republican party's responsibility. If nothing else, read Krugman's recent column on how the Republican party stymied the recovery following the Great Recession. Read Michael Lewis' forthcoming book, "THE Fifth Risk", on how Trump and the Republicans are destroying the regulatory agencies - and that includes education. A little more research is needed here.
7
Small-town America is dying and no one can stop that. That is a bitter pill to swallow but there is no governmental action that can reverse that course. Young people look around and find there are few, if any, opportunities to long-term well paying careers. They leave and they don't come back thus depriving those communities of future leaders and a solid tax base. Neither Republicans nor Democrats can discourage people from wanting more for themselves and their families.
While many small town residents may believe that the Republicans listen to them better than Democrats, placing hope in that party is an exercise in futility. Republican governments in Kansas nearly wrecked public schools. Infant mortality rates, graduation rates, teen pregnancy rates and opioid addiction rates skew much high in states where there have been long-standing Republican-led governments.
Of course there will always be a large portion of our population that dreams for a less hectic life in the small town. But, inevitably, we all ask ourselves "Yeah, but what would I do there?" So far, politicians from neither party have come up with an answer to that.
17
I am very troubled by what passes today as a voting machine. In my state as in many others it is a computer made by Election Systems and Software. The machine uses a paper ballot but the ballot has never been looked at. My state ( Rhode Island) plans to look at some ballots for the first time but it will be a very small select group and they will not look at 100% of the votes cast from any one machiene.
A voting machiene is a trivial thing to design but by using a computer we are adopting a system that excells in the ability to cheat. There is no way i will ever trust these machienes.
5
I think many Americans identify with the President because they also have what I call DT syndrome: They know everything, they are always right and all their problems are someone else's fault.
50
I'm not sure what all the hand-wringing is about. It's not such a perplexing thing. Fly over country (where I live) votes Republican primarily because the coasts vote Democrat.
How do you get people to vote against their self-interest? You get them to look at a shiny object while using sleight of hand. In this case, the shiny object is their dislike of rich, preachy coastal elites talking down to them. Beyond that, most Americans in the heartland only care about a small number of issues (abortion, gun rights, healthcare and jobs). The first two issues are unwinnable for Dems in most of the Midwest and South. But instead of focusing on the latter two, Dems in the Midwest right now are essentially running against Trump. That is a mistake. People here like Trump. That's why he comes here. His insane rallies stroke his ego.
All Trump has to do to win the Midwest in 2020 is talk about Obama. People here dislike President Obama like their kids dislike kale (yes, Coastals, most of us don't like kale). It doesn't matter how amazing Obama was, you will not convince the Midwest of that. And by going anti-Trump, Dems will make it easy for him to go anti-Obama, anti-Hillary, anti-whomever.
But if a democrat came here and said, "Look, we got a few things wrong. Our policies haven't worked here the way we had hoped. Our platform has changed. Give us a second look." They could win. Dems always overestimate their chances of winning and get shocked when they lose.
Please do better.
5
@Souvient
Such revisionism. President Obama won Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin twice. He has a post presidential approval rating of 63%. If he were allowed to run again, he would win those states against any politician alive.
Cohen has a habit of hanging crepe. this essay is probably based on a handful of conversations whose anecdotal evidence is worthless.
3
@Souvient You set forth a perfect case for jettisoning the "Midwest" from the rest of "us" and to untie the not-United States. (We can do without your soy beans, too . . . )
1
Lordy, I do hope all these "don't worry--we got this" writers are right, but I still am very much worried they are not.
From the moment his Orangeness glided down the escalator with wifey on an invisible leash, I never thought Republicans would take him seriously. When they nominated him as their candidate, I never thought he'd pose any challenge to a seasoned, intelligent, prepared candidate like H. Clinton. When, in a gut punch, he actually took office, I never thought his base (at least a large percentage) would still be showing up at rallies chanting ugly things two years later. And I never anticipated that almost every Republican in Congress would cower in that big blob shadow so they could benefit their corporate buddies at the expense of the country's integrity and honor.
I was wrong on all of it. That 30+ percent of voters STILL support 45 is beyond comprehension. A born-with-a-golden-spoon-in-his-mouth rich guy has convinced millions that the Democrats are the elitists. Please.
Folks, don't assume anything. Democrats must work harder than ever to connect with voters and ensure a huge turnout in November. Getting people to the voting booth is job one.
42
"any Democratic voter gets asked why Democrats are intent on taking away American guns, jobs and individualism, and replacing them with handouts to every peeved interest group. "
What nonsense. The only "interest" groups which reap gratuitous federal dollars are profitable corporations, the military, and billionaires.
Moreover, only sick paranoid gun owners believe they are in danger of losing their weapons, and "individualism" is a total myth. Everyone, one way or another, receives federal aid.
Sad conclusion: Cohen's simplistic rhetoric exposes a third rate mind.
15
Well said, Mr. Cohen. The Democratic party in its current incarnation is terrible at conveying a positive, coherent message. This is compounded by the fact that Democrats frequently ask Americans to make more sacrifices for the common good: The Democrats have long been the "eat your vegetables" party, while the Republicans gleefully (and recklessly) shout, "Let's have ice cream for dinner!"
5
Who's the tout taking bets on Trump's 2nd term, Roger Cohen? Just seeing those "Trump 2020" hats (Made in China) is revolting to those of us who are betting on Trump not finishing his first term as America's "unpresidented" president. Trump won on the tsunami of his ability to communicate with white nationalists, uneducated men and women who adored him because "he tells it like it is" in the lingua franca of Twitter. Our 45th president is a throwback to the Roman emperors who tossed loaves and fishes, bread and circuses and paper-towels to the hoi polloi who relished disasters as today's folks relish TV catastrophes like today's floods in the Carolinas. The hoax of climate-warming by Trump and his Republican base, cooked up to serve to the people, is coming true. Saving the planet to save humanity from extinction is important work, but not appreciated by any "low-IQ" folks. Saving Americans from guns in every home isn't appreciated by the stand-your-ground people. Trump is the xenophobic hero -- clothed in the flag and carrying a cross ("It Can't Happen Here", Sinclair Lewis, 1935). -- who rescued the American economy, who listened to and spoke the language of the angry white people in small-town America, who voted him to our leadership in 2016, and may well vote him in again in 2020. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
7
Let me be sure I've got this straight - Trump will be re-elected because the economy is booming, and Dems will be defeated because rural Americans feel forgotten. Yet the Republican Party has now been in power for 8 years, since the 2010 midterms gave it control of congress. Still, it's all the Dems fault, because they can't connect to the little guy. Right, got it.
14
The problem has been the Democrats' turn towards Wall Street since the Clinton era. Turning away from that, and focusing back on workers, is central to a new emerging left-wing of the party (Example A: Bernie Sanders). I'm not sure why you think Democrats aren't trying to appeal to these voters; this is exactly what the progressive wing of the party is doing.
4
This is one of the best readings of current politics that you'll see in a while. It's a grim outlook in many ways for Democrats, but it also shows Dems that there are cracks in the GOP wall that they can take advantage of. There are Trump voters who clearly want to vote Democratic (many of them voted for Obama twice), but the party has to let these people know that they and their concerns matter, instead of just dismissing them all as racist and sexist because they wouldn't vote for Hillary Clinton. I know it's hard, but it can be done. It's obvious from polls that most people don't like Trump, but that isn't a good enough reason for all of them to vote Democratic during an economic upswing. The Dems can take back the House this fall. All they have to do is not screw up.
7
The Democratic Party suffers not from some sort of elitist, big-city bias, as this commentary seems to say. It suffers from a lack of deep integrity and courage to truly fight for working people, for the poor and oppressed, for those that struggle to simply keep from drowning while a small percentage of Americans live high and dry on the sea of wealth. The Democrats cave to the big money interests just like the Republicans, but not as quickly. The example of Obamacare is a perfect concentration of that. The ACA does not challenge insurance company dominance over healthcare. It doesn't try to reign in the blatant gouging by the drug companies. The ACA is a bastard compromise that is merely a dogleg soft turn, rather than the full stop and complete change of course that is needed. Yes, for many people it is better than what was before, but that's not saying a whole lot. And I'm sure there are those who have been hurt by it. I don't know which set of voices will build a legitimate alternative to the horror that is Trump and the Republicans, but until those voices coalesce the Republicans will always be able to rise up from the dead with their vampire-like programs that appeal to the most base interests of those who have swallowed the Kool-Aid of American individualism and grit saving us all. Individualism, by definition, saves individuals--invariably the rich, if the Republicans have their way. Society looking out for all of its members builds the future.
4
@Tom Stock-Hendel So you think the Republicans would be better? Look at the Republican Party honestly. (The ACA is the way it is because Mr. Obama had to get one vote from the Republicans. And Republicans have done nothing to fix it.)
1
Nothing like a little political spin with your morning coffee. As the support for Republicans all over the country diminishes isn't it nice to be able to put on the blinders and make believe the pro-Trump base is large and forceful enough to get him re-elected. Funny you don't notice Vice President Pence getting ready for a 2020 run against "President Trump." Even his allies know what's going to happen if he does make it through this presidency without being impeached.
2
Trump won in 2016, so of course we shouldn't overestimate the credulity of voters or the depths that Fox will go to propagandize white nationalism, but I find it unlikely that a man who was despicable before he was elected and has done nothing but confirm that daily since will win the middle.
Trump's "strong disapproval" is far higher than his "strong approval," and unless the vast majority of economists and social scientists are wrong, the few who benefit from the GOP agenda won't be enough to change that.
Sure, Obamacare sucks. We knew it would suck because the GOP and Wall Street Dems spent 6 years making sure it would suck. But single-payer is increasingly popular and the GOP has painted itself into a corner by making their denial of healthcare access part of their platform.
Sure, the "economy" is great, unless you're part of the 66% of Americans who don't benefit when the market booms, or like Mr. Colcord here can see the obvious connection between wealth inequality and the democratic dysfunctionality.
Sure, the evangelicals and plutocrats are getting their courts stacked, but what happens when those judges consistently rule against the majority in favor of theocracy and oligarchy?
I'm not optimistic. I've seen very little reason for optimism over the past decade. One thing is true, however. Either Trump and the GOP will collapse or this country will.
20
It is quite likely that the policies Trump is pursuing will lead to economic decline. That is, unless somehow the banana Republican combination of massive tax cuts for the rich, trade wars and crony capitalism can somehow lead to success. For now, Trump can ride the current economic sugar high from tax cuts, and the economy he inherited from Obana, but everything about his approach spells disaster. Democrats should continue to build their brand around good governance for all, and resist the siren song of tribalist politics.
3
Republicans own the school problem in Colorado. They prompted a referendum on the Tax Payer Bill of Rights. This devastated school funding. It needs to be overturned. Colorado teachers are extremely poorly paid & there is no funding for many core subjects that Colorado students need to succeed.
19
@Mary Sampson
What happened to the tax revenues from the legalization of marijuana in Colorado? I thought that was supposed to go into the public school system there?
4
Trump clearly fails the hard work test as well. His favorite activities are watching TV, playing golf, making fun of others, and talking about himself. He does not do his homework, perform proper due diligence, check his facts, or do any deep thinking.
22
Totally. I couldn’t believe my eyes. I had to read the lede twice. To give Trump even an inch on “hard work” is an insult to all who aren’t retired.
2
@Frederick And how do you know all this?
The next hurricane should be named Trump. He has reeked havoc and devastation in his wake. Causing grief and turmoil with every decision he makes. The destruction of Hurricane Trump will be felt for years after it has left. The real disaster is happening right before our eyes. The eye of the storm is the White House.
5
So Mr. Cohen went walkabout with some of the least factually connected voters in the country, and he faults Democrats for not yet disabusing all of them of the many false narratives they have been sold? Check the polling Roger, and watch the midterms. These things take time but progress is being made.
8
I think you are wrong and that he won’t be a two term president. American voters will do better. I have faith and am seeing a group of young and old of every race, creed and every other identity get engaged against this turmoil and ignorance. We needed a wake up call and this was it. His followers will always be just as Nixon’s were always with him. But that too shall pass. My faith is not baseless.
9
Whether Trump survives politically probably depends on what Mueller changes him with. Mere violations of campaign laws and obstruction of justice might not be enough to bring him down. If, however, the charges were racketeering, heading a criminal enterprise and treason against the United States, small-town America might finally abandon him - even if the economy is doing well.
2
First of all-where is Trump working hard? He doesn't read, check facts, or question stats given to him. Second, Colcord cannot stand Trumps lies in spite of the economy so Yeah some people cannot be bought. You don't need to keep an eye on Colcord--he's a man of values. Political Comprehensible Idiom? Are you kidding me?
3
Mr. Colcord is just wrong that Democrats haven't come up with solutions to start to address many of the problems he's concerned about. A majority of states (Republican) have categorically nixed these solutions. Look at Kansas and the like. President Obama , early on, began to try to address these issues; the Republican congress, Mitch McConnell et. al., categorically contemptuously prevented anything of the sort even being discussed let alone coming to a vote; desiring to make Obama "a one term president". Astounding ignorance.
7
@danxueli It is Cohen not Colcord.
Only 28% of the eligible voters voted fro Trump/ Only about 50% of the eligible voters voted at all. The Republicans who could not abide Trump stayed home as did the Democrats who found HRC to be a fraud.
The people who are Trump's core are not going to be swayed by any Democratic policies. They had been waiting for a candidate that spoke their language of racism, xenophobia and misogyny.
If Democrats take back the folks who voted for Obama and then for Trump in the Mid West they will win. If Democrats field a candidate that their base is enthusiastic about they will win.
It is really that simple.
8
@Edward Blau
Sorry. You make it sound TOO simple by neglecting to mention all those who either voted for Sanders, Third-Party candidates who didn't have a snowball's chance of winning, or those didn't vote at all.
Most of Trump's supporters and voters don't like Trump. They just like the loser-candidates the Democrats come up with even less. The Democrats had viable choices in 2016 -- Bernie Sanders(I voted for Sanders in the primary) or Joe Biden would have smashed Trump and his crass nationalism. But the power-brokers at the top of the Democratic machine smashed Sanders and shoved Biden aside to make way for a corrupt, entitled Hillary Clinton. People in the end vote for the candidate they'd like to have a beer with. Nobody wants to have a beer with Hillary Clinton.
7
@John Jabo Having a beer. One sees that metaphor a lot, but it always leaves me shaking my head. Who'd want to have a beer with a blowhard whose only allowable topic of conversation is himself, and his is the only allowable voice?
It was written, many times, that Hillary is an engaging conversationalist. I find that easy to believe. I dislike white wine, but better that with Hillary than an hour of "I'm a hero/I'm a victim" with trump over a Coors (or six).
1
@John Jabo What?? You've actually seen Trump drink beer?? No . . . !!
1
The answers to the problems of rural America can be solved by one dirty word: taxes. Not taxes on the poor, taxes on the 1% and corporations. In the halcyon days of the American middle class, corporations were paying up to 90% of their income in taxes. Obviously that would be too high given our global economy. But certainly corporate welfare is hurting poor and middle class Americans. But rural America consistantly votes for Republicans, who despise tax increases on the wealthy.
As for the "end of Trump", I certainly hope not. I have written, and will write again, to all of my Democratic representatives and tell them not to move to impeach Trump. He should stay right where he is, as a living reminder of how corrupt the Republican party is. No free pass for him or Pence or any Republican coward who has refused to stand up to him. Americans clearly need the reminder of how bad things can get.
12
@MJ Increasing taxes on corporations would just be an indirect way of increasing taxes[costs] on everyone who buys their goods and services.
People keep pushing the illusion of a strong economy when all the economy is doing is spending billions more in borrowed money. The payment for this borrowing will come out omg Colcord’s pocket, not oot of Bill Gates’s.
3
A major problem for the Democratic Party is that democratic voters, even those who are already registered to vote, don't like to vote on election day. If we look at the special congressional elections which were held over the last year or so, the democratic candidates did pretty well but they could have won if there had been a reasonable turnout by people who generally vote democratic. Many democratic voters need to be cajoled or enticed into voting. The result is that the democrats spend a ton of money for their candidates to come in a "strong second." I hate to tell you but in politics, second place doesn't cut it.
It is strange that many people seem to believe that the default position on voting is to vote republican. In the column, Mr. Colcord describes all of the things about republicans and The Donald that he hates. To me the obvious conclusion from what he said would be to support the Democrats. But he feels that the democrats have not made a sufficient case so one assumes that he will not vote or will vote republican.
He reminds me of the election in 2016 where many democrats could not support Hillary because she had not exhibited sufficient empathy. Empathy??
I'm running out of space --- so the democrats need a good candidate who can unify the party and find support in red states -- someone like: Steve Bullock, Roy Cooper, John B. Edwards. Most of all the democrats have to go to the polls and vote on election day.
2
Excellent analysis of divisions that exist between the coastal/urban Democratic elites and the rest of the nation. Trump has exploited that difference to win the White House. And unless Manafort sinks Trump, there is not enough for a conviction in the Senate. The impeachment process is a double edged sword. An acquittal makes the accusers appear weak and misguided. Unless there is ironclad proof that rises to the level of resignation, don't do it. Nixon knew it was a done deal that he would lose in the Senate. Members of his own party told him to resign. Two presidents have had trials in the Senate with the same result, acquittal. An acquittal in the Senate will almost guarantee a Trump victory in 2020.
3
The DNC may not have gotten the message, but most of the Candidates running for Congressional seats have.
The candidates themselves are keeping their politics local, addressing the citizens need in their respective States.
It will be the grass roots Democrats that will make sure that the issues they really care about and those candidates who support those issues. get elected.
Most of the Candidates are doing the work on their own. they do not need the DNC.
9
The top comments all say Cohen is wrong. One person even says yawn. Somebody else says who cares, most people live in cities.
And that, my friends, is how Democrats lost to Trump.
7
I was dreading another MAGA, pro-Trump article. Instead I found a thought provoking piece of journalism; a wake-up call to all Democrats who blindly trust that winning the mid-terms is in the bag.
The economy appears to be stable for now, but history shows that could change at any time. Expect political repercussions following Hurricane Florence, as people become frustrated waiting for power and infrastructure to be restored. And yes, the jobs numbers look good, but what are those new jobs? High paying with benefits? Or entry level jobs with no future?
The Democratic party has some serious soul searching to do if they intend to take over the reins and successfully steer our country in the right direction.
6
Greetings from Smalltown USA aka Collingswood, NJ. We don't want anybody's guns, have a large number of self-employed business owners and tradespeople so thanks, we're not taking anybody's jobs. We have a bike share program, a community greenhouse and art festivals. Book fairs, restaurants! Our streets are tidy because we pick up after ourselves and we fund our schools. (Shame on any state or town that doesn't!) What do we want? we want affordable health care that includes pre-existing conditions, a clean environment and a government not run by special interests. We don't see that with the current bunch in office, so watch us in the next election.
66
What better way for Roger to stand out than a column that bets on Trump in 2020. But at this moment with a 36 percent approval rating I wouldn't bet on it. My take is that Trump will declare victory and not run in 2020. He'll return to New York City, maybe even Queens, and find a new way to ripoff the American public. And the 36 percent will love it.
2
There's a contradiction here:
People are poor.
But farms kind find workers and need immigrants.
Logic: Locals do have work, and the fact that farm owners can't find workers means the price should go up (we all are supposed to be capitalists, especially the conservative farmers), maybe to a living wage. Maybe the farmer can even offer health care, or better, support Bernie who wants Medicare for all. Or maybe the farmers just want illegals to keep wages down. That's real capitalism in America.
4
An alternative explaination:
In the century since President Woodrow Wilson declaired himself the "CEO of the United States" whose job description was "managing" the American people with "experts" and "bureaucrats" the great "Progressive" experiment has failed. (At least it didn't kill 100 million people as did fascism, communism, and socialism.) We have been left with a bloated national debt, poverty, crime, bigotry, so many laws and regulations that experts suggest every one of us violates at least one every day, and no significant change to the "general walfare" due to actions of the Federal Government. More and more people are catching on and rejecting the Progressive dream of imposition by an overbearing and intrusive Federal Government into every aspect of their life.
My argument here is not have Americans made progress. They certainly have. The question is rather did this happen because of or in spite of the Federal Government? Spending some time on "Our World in Data" suggests that at a minimum the Government has had no impact. Our progress is shared by the rest of the world including many countries that don't share Progressism as a political philosophy. Q.E.D.
progressivism is a failure.
We don't need laissez faire. We do need laws and regulations. But we need a better solution then turning over our lives to politicians (of both parties), "experts" and bureaucrats. Progressivism doesn't make the cut. Wilson was wrong.
I vote with the Founders.
1
The Democratic Party has long been branded as the party of giveaways to individuals, while the Republican Party has been labeled as the party of giveaways to corporations and the wealthy. There are reasons for both. If life is a series of snapshots, these particular snapshots have come to define both parties, at least for their opposition.
Donald Trump has capitalized on the on the fiction that he is giving to his less well-heeled supporters too, while in actuality, he taking away from these people, about whom he has never cared.
Bob Woodward captured it correctly when he titled his new book, "Fear," as it is, precisely, the fear of losing what they have which Trump reinforces, while stoking the resentment which accompanies that fear. Democrats need to offer a compelling and convincing raison d'etre if they are to capture not only the minds, but the hearts of Trump's core supporters.
It may not be enough that tens of millions of Americans detest Trump's character flaws and less-than-savory personal history. His base thinks he has its back. Paradoxically, it overlooks the fact that he is, in reality, stabbing them in it.
5
The Democratic Party has failed us. The Republican Party has outright betrayed us. Time to seriously read up on alternatives. I think I'll start finding out what the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) is all about.
That doesn't mean I'd always vote for the DSA or Bernie or whoever, but it requires the Democratic Party to start listening up to the people they've forgotten about.
5
@JGar
And this is exactly why some folks didn't bother to vote last time, and how we ultimately ended up with Donald Trump.
Thanks for nothing.
2
"As the victim president, or acquitted president, he’d fire up support going into 2020."
I disagree. If he's impeached, his public support will drop at least by half and many GOP senators will feel the heat to end this nightmare.
3
Although the voters who live in rural areas constitute only around 17%, they were over represented among those who voted in the last election by whopping 7% more. i.e. according to Pew Research it tracked the domicile of those those it polled who voted both in the primary and the main election of 2016, 24% were classified rural. The citizens of the fly over country have been woken up, and the Democrat party had ignored them for a long time. If the Democrats really want to govern, there are two major things they need to do. (1). On economic matters move to the left - Medicare for all, free community college education / skills training, scrap the one-way unfair trade deals and include members of the working class in writing the rules for Fair Trade, impose punitive taxes on corporations that off-shore their operations and import finished goods into the country bypassing tariffs, allow refinancing of student loans at rock bottom interest rates that are available to the big businesses,
(2) Move to the center on social issues - Stop 'in your face' loud advocacy for same sex marriage, trans-gender bathrooms. and LGBTQ rights. No matter which religion one follows, all of them sanctify marriage between a man and a woman, and have a code of conduct similar to Ten commandments. Respect the views of the people of faith.
2
The inability of the Democratic leadership to put a practical and compassionate message out there is mind-boggling. This should be a no-brainer. The young insurgents around the country who have won elections this year *are* speaking to all of us, focusing on health care, jobs, and education.
The party "leaders," meanwhile, are busy backing candidates who are the best fund-raisers, even sabotaging local democrats in their rush to please the donor class. It's crazy. They're like addicts who have lost the ability to do what's best for themselves, and can focus only on their next ($$) fix.
7
Telling somebody something they somehow know yet still don't want to hear is often tough yet usually impossible and Democrats
seem more affected by this behavior than Republicans. Once you truly believe in something, regardless of the facts that totally contradict it and cloud your thinking, the game's over. When the truth is no longer the truth, the law is no longer the law, right becomes wrong and wrong becomes right, the epidemic has already set in, spreading its insidious poison wherever it goes to to whomever it touches.
Trump's proven himself to be a juggernaut with more lives than the proverbial cat.
Vote.
5
The thing that this article and all those like it proclaiming an imminent second-term victory for Donald Trump seem to forget, is that in addition to him being venally corrupt in almost every imaginable way -- he still only represents a minority of Americans who will support him at any cost, while most of us have had no doubt about who he is from the beginning, and will not easily succumb to all his lies and rhetoric that are shredding apart the cohesion of this country.
Change is not only coming, it's coming soon.
And if there's anyone who had better keep their eyes open, it's Donald Trump.
11
The Democrats can offer a very clear and very traditional message to rural America: Do what your parents or grandparents did, and MOVE to where there are new opportunities. The coal industry isn’t coming back. The time has come to make America fresh and clean again. There is new work to be done.
But most of all: STOP WHINING. Somewhere in your family’s past there are people who moved in search of a better life. Try to be worthy of them.
6
@Global Charm Thank you! I grew up in rural Virginia. People packed up and moved to the Washington, D.C., area and got good jobs. I went to college thanks to my mom's decision to move. She only had a high school education but did very, very well in her career after we relocated to Fairfax, Virginia, just outside of Washington.
2
I have no doubt that Mr. Cohen's characterization of Trump supporters is accurate but it is also disturbing. Evidently in these voters' minds being "understood" by Democrats is more important than the fact that the president appears to be so mentally unstable that he requires minders to prevent disaster. There are plenty of voters everywhere who feel victimized these days for any number of reasons. Preserving this presidency is not the solution.
11
@MDV Yes, all those rugged individualists saw no need to understand blacks, gays, and anyone else, but now expect everyone to jump to their cause. And, the latest cause will be disaster relief after the hurricane, followed by plenty of complaints if they don't receive speedy service.
Aw, c'mon ....
2
I hope Sherrod Brown will be running as our candidate in 2020--I think he would be that "unifying" candidate. He has authentically walked the walk with working and middle class constituents.
6
I totally agree! I have been hoping he runs since day 1. But I do not see any indication. Whether he can stand up to Trumps inevitable personal attack is another question. Joanna
If what Mr. Cohen wrote is true, then small town, rural America has become our nation's version of Pakistan's Pashtun tribal region: irrational, backwards, and paranoid. These places may not be a lost cause, but for now, the rest of the nation needs to shrug them off and move forward.
8
Moving forward, an infusion of new leadership is needed by the Democrats. It's starting to happen.
2
I was very afraid going into the 2016 election. I am not about reelecting Trump. Four years of reality. I trust the American public more than to ignore reality after four years of getting slapped in the face.
With respect to Mr. Halberstam’s observation about the four virtues Americans respect, here’s how I see it for Trump:
Hard work is required to run for the presidency. Trump 1, Clinton 1.
Sacrificing time with family and family businesses is required to run for the presidency. Trump 1, Clinton 1.
Decent Americans don’t think an awful lot about blowing up the White House. Trump 1, Madonna 0
Loyalty’s highest priority is loyalty to this country. Trump 100, extreme left 0.
2
Nation under Law...except Donald seems much more loyal to Russia and oligarchy than America.
Except Donald spends a lot of time attacking his own Justice Department.
Except he, his campaign staff, and his cabinet members tend to wind up guilty of breaking American law and ethics rules.
Trump's loyalty is to cold cash and his psychopathic ego.
Stop swallowing snake oil.
Sad.
40
@one Nation under Law Two things: I am pretty sure Madonna didn't run in 2016. And Trump is loyal only to himself. The world exits only to showcase his wonderfulness.
Your personal understanding of things: less than zero.
4
@one Nation under Law Surrounding yourself with all the best criminals, being an unindicted co-conspirator, praising dictators, giving big tax breaks to the already filthy rich and noseeums to the middle class and poor, an enemy of the free press, our huddled masses, women-- and our most vulnerable immigrant children!--and facilitating a hostile foreign government's interference in our last election and future elections by publicly fawning over the mastermind of that interference and on and on. Trump's regime is the antithesis of a free and democratic society. Trump's loyalty is to himself alone.
2
What if, during the impeachment proceedings, the truth of stump's criminal background becomes self evident? Will his cultist image still hold? Is it not possible that there is a point beyond which no American can support him? Al Capon had his supporters, but it did not keep him from prison. And he provided them with booze when others tried to take it away, what has stump provided for his supporters?
1
Whether or not Trump will go on forever, it will seem like forever.
18
Good column. Agree with the sentiments of all, except Jamie Dimon. Really tired of big bankers giving us the woe-is-me sadsack propaganda. How many banks and bankers got away with gross fraud and sheer incompetence in the Great Recession? Most all of them. Many of them profited from it.
And it was "Democrats" who gave them a free pass, President Obama and bankers' pal Eric Holder (AG merely on sabbatical from the bankers' law firm in DC, Covington&Burling, and even had a Freudian slip referring to Covington as "my law firm" in testimony before Congress - and now has the delusional temerity and grandiosity to think he's up for the presidency! Ha!). And Holder's sidekick Lanny Breuer was also on loan from Covington. That loan was a very profitable loss leader for Covington and its clients.
In financial regulation, there's really not much difference between R's and D's. And for good reason: the last two "Democratic" administrations have been Rockefeller Republican administrations in drag. (And the regs now in place, combined with the ultra-low interest rates maintained in favor of the banks and the investor class, will be insufficient for the coming next crisis around the corner.)
As to Trump's chances, never underestimate the capability of the Democrats to shoot themselves in the foot. They did it in 1968, 2000, and 2016. Look who we got: Nixon, W and Trump.
(Click the link for Colcord profile in the NYer. A good read. And Nucla is in an interesting area of the country.)
5
The idea that Senate Republicans will fall on their sword and end their careers by voting against impeaching the President is laughable.
By the time, such a vote occurs, Trumps approval rating will have fallen from its present 36 percent to the teens or single digit. Any Senator who votes to keep Trump in the Presidency might want to save time and simultaneously submit their resignation for such a vote would end their public careers.
2
If you are not watching, Mr. Cohen, the rural areas of the country are being left behind by Trump and his merry band of disrupters and enablers. All is not that good in small-town Texas which is underserved by government. The town post office has cut back window hours or closed, streets are falling apart, and medical care is average to below average if it exists at all. Texas Republicans are continuing to underfund local schools, teen pregnancy continues are a high rate, and high school graduation is declining. What do you have to say about that, Mr. Cohen? And, Texas has been solidly red since 1995. The press gave Trump a pass in the beginning. And, the press is giving him a pass now, especially in small-town and rural America. Why is that, Mr. Cohen? Answer that, and we may have a conversation.
19
@D. O. Miller: Go Beto!
2
I agree with Colcord about what the failings are with the Democratic party- while I am an ardent supporter of environmental protection and universal health care, we have not shaped those concepts into policy plans that are on-the-ground helpful for the folks (both small town and urban) who are struggling with their bills and trying to keep food on the table. We can promote federal subsidies for companies that make eg, solar panels to put factories in areas hit by job loss (including coal county) and training out of work folks in these jobs. We can provide the numbers to show what universal healthcare will actually cost and what it will provide - people keep forgetting that they will pay more in taxes BUT will NOT be paying premiums and deductibles - break it down into how much taxes-how much less $ to those costs and what it will deliver in accessibility to care. And we need younger, energetic, focused and unflappable candidates - I don't care if they are Democrat or Republican - I want someone who is honest, will listen to others, including the other side and remember WHO they are serving - the American people, not special interests, their own interests or their "base"
4
I'm a moderate Republican, a dying breed indeed, and I could not agree more. I feel I'm watching a football game where the GOP keeps fumbling the ball and the Democrats pick it up and fumble it back. It's almost like they do not want to win. I want and need a large D win. It appears to be the only way to bring my party back to sanity, back to caring about the middle and lower middle classes of America. The Democrats can't seem to get a message together that works. It's not a red state only message. I've lived in very blue states and middle and lower class people work in those states too. A message of Health Care, Social Security, Infrastructure is a working message across the USA. I would finally include fiscal sanity with a home spun message. For once D's get it right.
6
I completely agree with Mr. Cohen. Do not underestimate Trump or his chance for a second term. Fear and hate and powerful and they have take him a long way and may take him further. However, Mr. Cohen is wrong to despair over the state of the Democrats. I have no doubt that by 2020, people must see that GOPs are bankrupt in ideas; what more do they want to offer besides lowering tax more for the rich and killing Roe via thousand cuts? Neither of these ideas are acceptable to most Americas. It is also heartening that Democrats have emerged as the moral and patriotic party with exciting ideas that people can rally behind. Old guards like Mr. Obama, Carter, Biden, Kerry and Ms. Warren still hold the moral center and have plenty of respect. The young new voices are particularly heartening. In more progressive areas, messages from people like Ms. Ocasio-Cortez will resonate. In more conservative areas, message from people like Mr. Lamb will carry. Let's see how the midterm goes but the most promising message that I see are from Mr. O'Rourke who holds very liberal personal views but are open to the opinions of everyone else and are gaining followers even in the reddest area in Texas. If these people will unite and present a compromised progressive message, we will cleanse Washington, heal America, and save the world.
4
The threat of a second Trump term is real, but Cohen's proposed solutions are unlikely to deliver the Democrats a victory. Trump didn't win because Democrats pursued progressive policies, but rather because they failed to. Hillary Clinton represented decades of Democratic retreat from commitments to the poor and working classes. Unsurprisingly she was unable to sufficiently mobilize poor and working and class voters of all colors who are reasonably skeptical that their votes even matter. The vast majority of Trump's voters were Romney voters. The strategy of pandering to them that Cohen is advocating here is a dead end.
What the Democrats need to do is run on a robust agenda of Medicare for All, raising the minimum wage, free college tuition and student loan relief, taxing the rich and mobilize the millions of black, Latino, and poor white voters who sat out 2016 around a candidate they can trust to really fight for that agenda because they have been doing so for their entire political lives.
That candidate is already the most popular elected official in the country and his name is Bernie Sanders. The Democratic establishment (which includes the NYTimes) will, of course, instead do everything in its power to force another neo-liberal corporate tool on us and to prevent Bernie from becoming the party's standard bearer. It will be up to the rest of us to resist and confound their efforts and to remind the world of their central role in giving us Trump in the first place.
4
@Christopher For now, the same clowns who blocked Bernie in '16 are still running the party. DWS is gone, but Perez is no better. Ellison may be making headway, but the DNC has not embraced Bernies message. The old Dems simply won't change. In the Il 3rd, we have a blue dog congressman. His dad held the office 1983 t0 2005. Bill won the '06 primary then decided to retire. Dad and his party cronies handed the spot on the ballot to his son. (The son did not even live in Il. at the time) We have been stuck with Lip Jr ever since. This year, we had a great challenger, Marie Newman. Rather than telling us what to think, she listens to the people. As Marie gained momentum, the DCC swooped in to save Lip from finally being ousted. The party blatantly interfered with our primary, just like they did against Bernie. The party is killing itself by interfering in primaries. The leadership is more concerned with their cliques and set ways than empowering the people. Until the old guard is OUT of the Dem party the party will stay wimpy and afraid of being bold. Thankfully, Berners ae making headway across the nation and they are changing the party, despite it's "leadership" ** Right now, to save our republic, we must all vote BLUE this mid term, no matter who.
1
We need to consider GOP fundamentals. Republicans play deficit hawks but in reality couldn't care less about the deficit, or the national debt. To them, the national debt will just keep growing, and they are resigned to paying ever more interest on it and maybe eventually just defaulting (that would be right up Trump's alley). So they give themselves, their donors, and corporations massive tax cuts. Why not? Might as well put the party hats on. While they're at it, why not deregulate as much as possible to really stoke the economic fires? And the environment? Again, we're never going to solve climate change, so why bother trying. Besides, the best way to get reelected is to have a strong economy, a great stock market (even though that generally doesn't help the working class, who don't own stocks), and low unemployment. And stack the courts to keep things going in your favor for as long as possible.
The GOP wants to keep their party hats on. Besides, if things go south, Democrats will come back in to start taxing the wealthy and imposing regulations, until voters tire of the slower economy and job losses and then it's GOP-time all over again. It's the endless cycle of U.S. political life.
It will be very difficult to get rid of Trump short of the 25th Amendment or impeachment, both of which now look far off in the rear view mirror. The GOP Congress plays along with our president, and Trump knows how to pick a feckless Cabinet.
We're likely in for a long slog.
1
The word conservative has become a code word for corporate rule. Whether it emanates from Democrats or Republicans it conveys the underlying cause of disenfranchising citizens and subverting the constitution. This should not be considered a conservative direction for the country. Liberal is now synonymous with the celebration of smaller and smaller groups that consider themselves victims of the majority. Elections are not won this way. Jobs create more votes than resentments. Both parties need to reconsider the true meanings of the words conservative and liberal. True conservatives and true liberals are required at all levels for an effective economy and government. We now have neither.
2
Thank you Roger, a valuable warning here.
"The Democratic Party...seems to have no way of understanding ...how to pay bills, how to have a retirement, how to feed their families, what to do about bad schools, how to get healthcare... jobs when environmental concerns take them away."
But we live in the same world, on the same planet, governed by the same physical laws, gravity etc.
Which party tries to raise the minimum wage?
Which party legislated and protects Social Security,
Medicare and Medicaid?
ACA was a twisted compromise with an insurance industry that has both parties wadded up in it's pocket.
Will the Republicans support Medicare for all?
The future presents the same hurdles to us all-
if we choose to recognize the post-truth realities.
Stay off of the identity issues, select a unifying candidate, as you say here, and stress the basic historic strengths of the party.
7
One person interviewed in the article complains that Democrats have allegedly forgotten how to communicate with people in small towns. I, for one, am truly tired of rural, small town America complaining that urban/suburban areas, which are THE economic, cultural, and job-creating engines for our country, do not kowtow to their viewpoints. In Ohio, rural views tend to be anti-gay, pro-their religion only, anti-education, and anti-anything they remotely resembles progress or the future.
Like her or not, Hillary Clinton had substantive, well-articulated policy proposals for serious issues, like worker re-training that would have actually helped people trapped in dying Ohio rust belt areas transition to a 21st century economy and a competitive world. Those people either (1) didn’t know about it because they watch only FOX or (2) were hypnotized by the distraction of those emails, which now seem so quaint when viewed against the venality of the man they voted for.
63
@J.
I live in Ohio too. My county went for Trump about 65-35. I am also one of those former union factory workers, albeit not one who would ever consider voting for the likes of a Trump, or any other Republican for that matter. I now have a graduate degree. And I now earn about half of what I did when I was a union member.
Yes, Hillary did have substantive, well-articulated policy proposals for serious issues that would have benefited workers. The problem was that you had to go to her website and dig for them. The economic issues most important to workers were not the overarching theme of her campaign. These things should have been front and center and shouted from every Democratic campaign ad and from the podium at every Democratic campaign rally. Instead Trump shouted them. Never mind that he and his party are the last people who would ever consider policy that would help anyone who works for wages. He shouted it. That was all that mattered.
To paraphrase James Carville, "It's the economic insecurity, stupid." And the candidate who realizes that the necessity of working for a living is the factor that unifies most Americans and who abandons identity politics to concentrate on issues that affect working Americans' everyday lives will be the candidate who wins. There's a reason Bernie Sanders is the most popular politician in the country.
1
"President Trump, in his sublime indecency, fails the test on all these qualities except perhaps hard work, yet tens of millions of Americans still admire him."
Most of Trump's supporters do not admire him. In fact, they see him as seriously flawed. But if no one else will support their cause, they have little choice. Both the Democratic and Republican establishments have abandoned them.
6
@Jonathan How in the heck does Trump support their cause, though? This is pure delusion on their part.
1
Yes , Sir. Working those golf courses sure is hard work.
1
At some point, small town voters (and I grew up in one) need to learn how to listen and understand what they're hearing. Trump doesn't understand their lives either -- but he's willing to lie, give them permission to blame other people, and promise to solve all their problems even though he has no clue how to do that (or even any interest in it).
85
Cohen is saying is that establishment Democrats have little to no appeal for the majority of voters. Agreed. This is why the much maligned (by this paper and others) progressive left must prevail. That is where the future is and is it where the people are. Sure, the old guard can do its best to stomp on it, but it is self-defeating. Progressives stand for something. They stand for a future that lifts and values what was quaintly called "the common man". The term may be quaint, but the idea is not.
We are all in this together. We all need health care, and we need it not to cripple us financially. We need a decent education. We need clean air and clean water. We need a coordinated, nationwide vision for climate change. We need a competent, coordinated response to disasters and a sensible response to external threats. These are not things we can do individually. That is the role of government: to do what individuals (even corporate ones) either cannot or will not do.
Some things also require coordination with other like-minded, trustworthy nations because the challenges are more than any one country can reasonably address. In a globalized world, we need a globalized response, especially to climate change and the social and economic disruptions it is already causing.
These are issues progressives cannot own and corporatism from either party cannot. The government of Wall Street and the Kochs have failed us. We must reclaim government for ourselves.
16
One small item to keep in mind re the 2020 election; Hillary Clinton won't be on the ticket.
But, while we're on the subject, in 2016 it was candidate Clinton who talked about "how to pay bills, how to have a retirement, how to feed their families, what to do about bad schools, how to get health care, how to do better at creating new jobs when environmental concerns take them away.”
Ah, but those emails... how microscopically insignificant that all seems now, doesn't it.
118
If the electoral college still elects the President in 2020, Mr. Trump can of course win again and probably with even less of the popular vote. I agree that Democratic party seems to remain less than insightful about their values and ideas can help middle America, but it the lack of proportional voting that allowed Trump to win the Presidency, not the votes cast by registered voters.
7
@Chris Clark By the Founders intent. What if the electoral college was appointed by the vote in each Congressional district? Republicans might actually spend time in California and New York
4
I'm sorry, but the "chances of a two-term presidency" have definitely diminished. I was fairly certain that Trump would lose the popular vote in the 2016, yet win the Electoral College. I even picked most of the states he was supposed to lose but would win, like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It's why I was incredibly upset when Trump won, but I wasn't surprised. There were plenty of signs. For instance, how in the world did pollsters discount that a few weeks before the election over 20 percent of voters said they were undecided or planned to vote for a 3rd party candidate, and that it was still over 13 percent on Election Day? There's little satisfaction in Nate Silver finally admitting how wrong forecasting was in his Jan. 23, 2017 piece "The Invisible Undecided Voter," and noting how in 2012 that number was less than 4 percent. However, what Cohen is missing is how much things have changed.
In 2016 Trump voters were rabidly supportive, and no surprise, they're still rabid. However, Trump would have lost if he hadn't gotten help from Putin, Cambridge Analytica, and James Comey, and if there had not been profound divisions among Democrats, and if Democrats had not been complacent. That's no longer true. I also recently spoke with a bunch of Trump fiends who still love him. So what? There's enormous energy among Democrats which was entirely lacking in 2016. Republicans in elected office certainly see it. They are rightfully scared. That is a very good thing.
25
@Robert B
So how exactly did this "help" from Putin change votes? If youre referring to the DNC and Podesta emails, that was all true. Nothing false released there. And if thats the case, the American public got a dose of the truth. Democrats got caught lying, cheating, fixing their own primary and colluding with the media on a mass scale.
Those are the folks you are supporting, who now want you to focus on whomever got their emails, not the emails themselves. Did you ever consider that?
Mr. Cohen defines the USA electorate as no different than Mr. Trump: me, me, me, me , me! That's why evangelicals can forsake Christian values to support Trump. That's why small businessmen pay less than family living wages and can support Trump. That's why the 1% can enjoy stupendous tax benefits and can support Trump. Mr. Cohen may be right in his assessment but the electorate he describes is morally wrong, just like their president!
36
I take a whole different view of Trump's electability.
A substantial part of Trump's support is not nearly as enthusiastic about him as Mr. Cohen suggests. Trump won in 2016 because many voters believed he was the lesser of two evils. That should be obvious based on the fact that the negative polling numbers of both candidates exceeded the positive.
Trump's election reflected a belief among many that he was less bad than his opponent. Now, we have had separated children, health care disruption, wishy-washy tax reform, inscrutable foreign policy, a drive for impeachment, hush money to a porn star and a Playboy model, infidelity, insults to the honorable, and on and on. The threshold for the lesser of two evils has moved far in the direction of a half decent Democrat.
Unless the Democrats commit harikari, Trump will be lucky to make it to January 2021, let alone January 2025.
11
I think Cohen is wrong.
If the Democrats take the House, and even if they take the Senate with a slim majority, I don't believe they would be stupid enough to start impeachment proceedings that they could not win.
Instead, I think the strategy would be right out of the Mitch McConnell playbook: obstruct or stop everything Trump wants to do, while investigating absolutely everything about Trump that they could investigate.
As a liberal Democrat, I'm neither impressed nor terrified by rabid Trump rallies in states whose entire population is less than that of Los Angeles. The liberal wing of my Democratic Party is more awake and involved than at any time in the last forty years. I can't wait for the midterms.
73
Excellent advice Roger! While Trump is a disgrace, there is a reason he was elected: a lot of people felt abandoned by the Establishment - including BOTH parties. Even if we get rid of Trump - which is easier said than done - it doesn't get rid of the anger and distrust of the System by millions of people, thus leaving the field fertile for the next bad seed.
It didn't have to be this way, nor does it have to continue. The Dems could've held true to their New Deal philosophy, or even now re-commit to it, but they failed. Sanders tried, and came close, but those in power, beholden every bit as much as Republicans to the donor class, squashed that idea and trotted out the Queen of the Status Quo. And they're still befuddled as to why she lost!
The majority of Americans want someone to fight for THEM, not for the special interests. But so far the Democrats remain tone deaf. If they don't soon start hearing, they'll again be left shaking their heads and wondering how they lost to someone as unfit as Trump. They need to wake up and realize that Trump isn't the problem, he's the symptom, and if they find a cure for what ails them, they'll remain untouchable.
5
See, I completely agree that Trump could take it again in 2020.
If the reality behind the election forecasts of 2016 was so distorted as to defy all rational prediction, have we seen ANYthing since then to suggest this country is truly -- significantly, actually -- on a corrective course?
No. All we have seen is headline after headline, story after story suggest that THIS is the thing that will push Trump toward his demise, but it is not to be. Just like the polling numbers got it wrong about Hillary in 2016, every item in the real-news press seems couched upon the desperation that a-ha, at last, we have reached the tipping point. Yet so far it all feels like wishful thinking. Nothing changes. Another daily dose of Trump tweets -- that's the reality.
We have been living in the shadow of this country's towering stupidity, and the lights I see shining don't shine bright enough, at least not yet. I can't build myself up for more disappointment.
The storms are still raging, the winds have not yet turned.
16
Mr Cohen, I agree that the midterms are not a shoe in for the Democrats and neither is the next Presidential election. So much depends on the quality of the candidate and the need to focus on issues that matter.
My conundrum with your column is that the issues of healthcare, education and jobs are issues that Republicans have or are in the process of eviscerating. Unemployment was halved under the last administration. The job creation in 2017 was the lowest in 4 years (the unemployment rate is not really that useful a measure in and of itself). In Trump’s entire 20 months in office there have been 300,000 less jobs created then the previous 20 months and cracks are showing in many industries even before the effects of this trade war began to show.
Healthcare was ignored by Republicans for decades and passed by Democrats with an imperfect system that Trump wants to kill rather then improve and because he couldn’t kill it he is trying to force it to bleed to death. Betsy Devose is single handedly hollowing the government’s role in driving a better result in education. Four day school weeks in Kansas were brought on by Republican “trickle down” tax cuts.
You seem to think Republicans are doing such a good job in these areas that Democrats want to run away from these subjects? Joe Manchin is winning re-election in W Virginia on healthcare alone. Seriously, Republicans are leading from behind on each of these topics and Democrats are talking about these things...a lot!
41
"It’s unlikely, however, that the Democrats will have the numbers in the Senate to convict him. This may be a positive scenario for Trump. As the victim president, or acquitted president, he’d fire up support going into 2020."
Roger, this is the key point, with which I disagree. You are comparing Trump to Bill Clinton. The latter was exceptionally popular nationwide going into the Kenneth Starr investigation, and the disgusting and sordid manner in which Starr exploited the sexual scandal created a national backlash in contrast to the general approval Mueller's measured approach.
Secondly, Bill Clinton had one scandal (Whitewater proved to be a dud). Trump has hundreds (numerous examples of affairs and sexual molestation, Trump 'University', serial bankruptcies, possible money laundering by his family, blatant racism and, most important, possible collusion with Russia to swing the election.
Trump may hold onto a devoted minority, but that won't be enough to save his presidency.
19
“The Democratic Party has lost the ability to communicate with people who live in small towns. It seems to have no way of understanding their issues: how to pay bills, how to have a retirement, how to feed their families, what to do about bad schools, how to get health care, how to do better at creating new jobs when environmental concerns take them away.”
And when was the last time you saw ANY republican out there talking about these issues? Heck, when was the last time your republican legislator even held a town hall to listen to your concerns? I hear plenty of dems, though, out there talking about these issues as well as income inequality (and not just Bernie). Another case of a voter simply not paying attention.
67
I live in Colorado, which Roger Cohen correctly calls "purple." What does that mean? That there are distinctly red and blue areas within the state.
The rural counties with the dire problems Mr. Cohen decries are red--they're Republican-dominated. The quality of life in those places is lousy in large part because of the right-wing, anti-government, socially conservative policies of the men running them. Blue cites like Denver and Boulder are liberal, and they are much better places to live.
Stop blaming the Democrats for everything. The Republicans are doing it to themselves. They enjoy whining and playing the victim. They need to start taking responsibility for their own problems and stop expecting the progressives they hate to bail them out.
67
@Carson Drew I would agree to a certain extent but then you have weld county with over 46k oil and gas wells in every corn field in sight.. the old timers are all trumpists but they are also selling and or developing some of that land into housing tracts that are inexpensive enough for younger folks to buy homes in and will eventually turn the red counties blue due to sheer demographics... take a look at Eaton and ault as well as north Greeley and you can see it happening
I've been saying for the past year that I think he's going to get away with it.
and if he's impeached or has to leave office for any reason that he'll refuse to leave.
I also think if trump loses the 2020 election that he'll claim sort of fraud and voting irregularity and refuse to leave.
5
Oh, you mean Trump has done the equivalent of build the autobahn and make the trains run on time? What a triumph of American democracy! But don´t forget that Trump has started a trade war, is running a dangerously high national deficit and has rolled back essential environmental measures that would help the nation deal with the unnaturally magnified natural disasters that are battering the Carolinas right now. We can all take satisfaction that the good people in the American heartlands are basking in their prosperity. But we would all be foolish if we think it can last.
4
You seriously think Democrats should take a lesson from Jamie Dimon? Actually, they should take a lesson from the fact that Jamie Dimon went unpunished after the crash. That was unacceptable. If O.'s justice department had treated the top bankers like Bush's justice department had treated Enron, Clinton would be president. That is the sole lesson Dimon has for the Dems. Otherwise, he's got nothing.
4
@rwgat - Why should Dimon be punished? JPMorgan did not not make any subprime loans, and did not deal with subprime SIVs and other derivatives. This was Dimon's decision and direct order. As a result, JPM made money in every single quarter of 2008 and 2009, while other banks were going broke.
@rwgat
Wrong bank to eviscerate. JPMorgan had one of the largest pools of capital, was strong armed into bailing out Bear Stearns, still had capital to burn, which is why the government sought their help regarding Lehman, and was then forced to take capital to provide cover for the weaker banks in TARP. This is why he's one of the most respected guys on Wall Street. Yes, many bankers got away with destroying the economy, but Dimon was among the least culpable.
@rwgat
What laws did Jamie Dimon break? I could think of a few investment unwritten laws that Bear Stearns and Lehman broke, like dont use so much leverage, but they didnt break any govt laws either.
Or am I mistaken? I hear this all the time, throw the bankers in jail, but i never hear for which laws they broke. Do you know?
“Saving the planet is important work. But an exclusive focus on environmentalism that ignores working people’s immediate needs can easily look like elitist indifference.” Nonsense. There is enough money to do both. There is no universal law that says that corporate executives must be paid thousands of times what line workers make. There’s no reason why Wall Street vultures must buy up companies, then plunder them for assets before spitting them out bankrupt and hemorrhaging employees. That false dichotomy has been spawned by corporate Democrats and Republicans who see their primary constituency in the C-suite, not in the rank and file labor sector. Until we change this economic model, we will continue to see the planet’s environment decline and economic inequality grow.
26
Trump will be installed in 2020 if he continues to serve the interests of the rich. If he fails in what is his primary mission, he will be replaced. Simple enough.
Democracy? Does anyone still believe that howler?
1
@Plennie Wingo So long as a Black man could get elected in America, well, call me silly..... Yes. I do.
You might not like things now, but some of us still remember that glorious night in 2007 when we were reminded of the goodness in America.
Or do you think Obama was "installed" for his second term too? I'm curious of how fluid you feelings about democracy are.
1
Manafort's folding could easily be the beginning of a perfect storm for Trump himself cutting deal to leave office rather than risk criminal prosecution after resigning. The Republicans are about 26% of the population, he's got maybe 75% of them and the ranks are only going to continue to thin out. His independents numbers are also tanking badly.
Nixon had 25% of the nations approval when he resigned, and you don't have to have a college degree to figure out Trump doesn't care at all about the middle class. When it becomes more and more obvious that their health and economic prospects are getting worse instead of better under Trump, it will be quite easy for a sizable portion of hard core Trump voters to turn against him, not to mention the curious Trump voters the vast majority of whom already have.
6
@Roger Hawkins "cutting deal to leave office"? You have no real understanding of how The Constitution, The Executive Branch and all the underlying issues regarding Executive Power within the Executive Branch works.
The President is not just some normal person- The Power of the Executive Branch (one of the 3 branches of our Government) vests in a single person, ThePresident.
So play this out: how exactly does he cut a deal with a guy who was appointed by a subordinate? To be clear, while it would be a dumb thing to do, the President can fire Mueller if he so pleases.
@profwilliams
Granted I have a very superficial understanding of the constitution's workings. However even now Trump is showing signs of realizing how obvious it may soon become to most still sympathetic with him that he and his criminal friends have no business running the government.
And up to now, he's been under the delusion that he can take on the justice dept. and intelligence community, and come out on top. Mueller is a straight arrow, but there are grey areas where he and his government allies can
pull strings when they see the extreme danger we could be falling into with Trump at the helm.
If the Dems are foolish enough to lurch further into the communist swamp by giving us a Bernie or something similar as their nominee, Trump will win via a landslide. Sensible people can agree that the extremes on both parties are a problem. Why the Dems never criticize their own extremists is beyond comprehension. But Trump will not lose to a radical taker if the economy remains strong in 2020.
13
Is it ironic, isn't it, that some people are afraid of socialism but are quite comfortable with communists. Why do I say that? Because Trump tries to be best friends with a (former?) member of the communist secret police, and to succeed he makes his followers afraid of Denmark, Norway and Sweden.
5
@Keith
The extremes as you call them exist all around the world. In Europe it's the same--hatred of immigrants whipped up by the likes of Steve Bannon vs democratic socialism fighting to get out from under the rule of corporatism (the 1%) and give everyone a fair deal.
You might say "t'was ever thus."
But it doesn't have to be forever.
Wake up!
1
@Keith Don't worry, Bernie doesn't have a prayer!
Trump should stay in until the inevitable economic crash arrives, otherwise Democrats will be blamed for it and have to somehow revive the nation, looted by Republicans. The Trump bump will be followed by the Trump super-biggest-ever slump, worse than 2008. Trump, Ryan, McConnell and the GOP are draining our coffers dry while serving our seed corn to the 1%.
20
So true!
Trump’s win in 2020 is a guaranteed reality if the Democratic Party continues to maintain its distain for the American middle class while embracing the fringe and hating the wealthy.
6
I agree. There is a lot of work to do between now and November 2020 and there are absolutely no guarantees at all. This column is a useful warning on that.
There are a couple of ways things can go bad. One is to lurch so far to the left that the party comes under attack for it. "Socialism" is still a dirty word in a lot of the country and Trump is skilled enough to exploit that. The other is to nominate a bad candidate. The Democrats have to let go of the fetish with "firsts" and develop a fetish for "bests". The 2020 nominee must not only be a master of domestic policy and offer a decent agenda that appeals to more than the party base, but they must also be a master of foreign policy as well and come across as a credible Commander-in-Chief. They also have to be politically skilled enough to go toe to toe with Trump while appealing to those 2016 Trump voters who might switch sides. That's all quite a tall order.
4
We have a no-win situation. You can't shut the coal mines without offering replacement jobs. Those jobs will require training. A stipend will be required to support people while they are learning new skills. Paying for the stipend will require higher taxes, and as Walter Mondale found out, even people who can easily afford to pay more will refuse to do so.
We may not like to admit it but the "freedom" we have has become a euphemism for every man for himself. Winners and losers, us versus them. A perfect breeding ground for Trump.
18
@JR
Give the IRS money to rebuild itself - it is presently underfunded and understaffed - and it can make "people who can easily afford to pay more" so do. One or two of the crooked, greedy 1% in jail for tax evasion will make the rest of them sit up and take notice. Their days at the punch bowl are numbered. They know it and are grabbing while they can, but it isn't sustainable. The reckoning has begun.
I don't doubt that Trump still has a bunch of supporters and that the Democrats are a long way from smalltown but to come up with this whole article purely based on anecdotes from a single voter?
I've not read to much of Mr Cohens previous work but if this is the kind of 'analysis' he comes up with it's pretty poor.
8
In the century since President Woodrow Wilson declared himself the "CEO of the United States" whose job description was to manage the People with "experts" and bureaucrats rather than as the head of the Executive Branch (the definition of Progressivism) there has been little or no change to the "general welfare" as a result of actions by the Federal Government. We still have crime, poverty, bigotry, financial crisis, war etc. Except now we have trillions in debt, millions of laws, and thousands of unaccountable "administers."
This is not to say that things haven't gotten better. They have. The question is "was this because of or in spite of the Federal Government?" A few hours with "Our World in Data" strongly suggests the answer is in spite of. The world has gotten better including many countries that don't share Progressism.
I suggest that the reason that President Trump might win a second term is that despite his numerous faults he is seen by many as their only protection from a special interest driven Federal Government that wants to intrude and dictate every aspect of their lives. His supporters recognize that the ultimate goal of Progressism is dictatorship by the government of all aspects of life.
Laissez Faire doesn't work. We need laws and regulations. We also need the freedom to "Be what we can be." Not be what every interest group demands the Government to make us into.
I stand with the 9th Ammendment and the Founders.
6
@Sailboat Captain
You say we need laws and regulations. Trump and the 1% are trampling them.
3
@Sailboat Captain
Well said. Look at social security. It's a ponzi scheme taxpayers are forced into. Then Obamacare. Like I want to be in an insurance pool with smokers and other junkies.
To the contrary the Democratic Party has a powerful message. Improve healthcare with expanding Medicare and addressing the flaws of the ACA. Invest in education and infrastructure to improve schools in rural areas and create jobs in rural as well as urban areas. Reform our tax code and increase the taxes on the extreme rich and create incentives for American companies to bring back jobs to America. Improve and protect Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid.
Invest in clean energy, solar and wind energy to create jobs throughout America!
The Republican limited government model promotes social and income inequalities to gilded age levels. The Democratic vision emphasizes progressive policies to
help all Americans have the opportunity to succeed
and to make America a more egalitarian society and a fairer one!
17
@IN
A lot of what you roiled off there is what Obama did, and that gave us the worst economic recovery in US history, putrid growth, stagnant wages, with an added 9 Trillion in debt. Trump got rid of a lot of that, and did the opposite of what Democrats did, and gave us a roaring economy.
Are you saying you want us to vote Democrat to go back to that?
We have a roaring economy. Isnt that what you want? What we as Americans need?
Dont start with the deficit, unless you were on here yelling about Obama's 1.3 Trillion deficits for EACH of his first 4 years.
1
I believe (hope?) a Trump second term is less likely than Mr. Cohen does, but he's right about two things: (1) an impeachment proceeding would fail, make Trump a victim, and fire-up his "base" and the rest of the GOP; therefore, it should be avoided. Trump and cronies should certainly be investigated by Congress much more thoroughly than the GOP-controlled committees have done. Do that, put the evidence before the people, and let the electorate deny him a second term. (2) He'll nonetheless get that second term if the Democrats don't also develop a unifying vision that speaks to both the urban, coastal progressives and the interior-state, rural conservatives, and then nominate an attractive candidate who can enunciate that vision clearly. It's not enough to be not-Trump; the Democrat must also be a visionary leader – not a pragmatist, not a policy wonk ... a leader.
5
Great piece. However, it ignores one important fact: Trump won the White House because HRC failed to energize and mobilize the Obama coalition, especially in places like FL, MI, OH and PA.
If, for example, HRC had won FL she would be president. She lost the state by 1%. Too many young people and people of color either voted against her or did not vote. Obama won the state twice with the help of these two groups.
It is no big secret, the GOP needs FL to win the White House. I use to be Ohio. Millions of dollars, in fact, are pouring into this state so that GOP can win both the Senate seat and Governorship this year so that the Republicans can win it in 2020. The GOP knows it is Florida, Florida and Florida to win in 2020.
Democrats don't need to worry about the Trump voters. They will be with him no matter what. The Dems. need to focus on those young people and people in WI, MI, PA and FL who did not support HRC, but did support Obama and took him to victory.
7
Injustice lurks at the boundaries of government programs and legal solutions in a complex and diverse society. This is the reality that Democrats have not come to terms with in both their political rhetoric and in the implementation of government solutions. Blind justice the symbol of law at its best becomes "blind" to practical realities in very diverse settings, and the bureaucracy becomes oppressive in experience. This is one factor at the heart of the anger of the people that Cohen describes. The answer is not to abandon government and legal approaches, but to provide flexibility for implementation and a truce with state and local levels. Of course there is no substitute for wise oversight on the ground and in the face of reality.
1
Government can't possibly be the answer to the myriad of social issues if people keep electing Republicans who claim all can be solved with privatizing everything.
We're close to one party government in the US right now. How is that working out for Colcord's neighbors.
I don't see the Democrats being able to change anything as long as Americans continue with their libertarian fantasy.
19
I agree that a two-term Trump presidency is not out of the question.
It's not enough for a Democratic candidate to not be Trump. It should be enough, but it's not. People should not forget how inconceivable Trump's nomination and election were just a short while ago.
2
I'm with Roger Cohen on this. Democrats assumed they would win in 2016. They assumed Hillary would win. They did not do their homework and burn the midnight oil in states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan .. the list grinds sadly on. They did not take the Electoral College carefully into account in laying out their strategy. In fine, the Dems expected to win and they got it catastrophically wrong. They can't afford to do that in November 2018 or in 2020. A little humility, a dose of reality, and a lot of courage will all go a long way. Sure, all the yah-boo over Trump and his shenanigans has its place in building up Democratic morale, but it may be wildly intemperate and unwise to rationalise or mock Trump's popular base away. There's a tough road ahead to take the House in November and, at the moment, Senate looks likely to remain a 49-51 GOP majority. It's going to take an enormous lick of electoral elbow grease to flip it. As for 2020, the Dems need to fiercely, ferociously keep their eyes on the prize. Those who don't learn from history, repeat it.
19
It is always possible to find anecdotal evidence to support a thesis, and that is a real problem in political analysis. A pharmacist in Colorado, disillusioned with Democrats, is nothing more than an example.
Whether or not the pharmacist is part of a very large cohort, disgusted by the kind of person Donald Trump is, but flirting with the idea of voting Republican, cannot be assumed.
The best course for Democrats is to stress the values which make them Democrats, chief of which are providing equal opportunity and a decent life for all Americans, including those most vulnerable among us.
Democrats cannot be bullied by the extraction industry into ignoring global warming and pollution, but we can and should help workers and communities affected by regulation.
The impeachment thing will happen or not, and Democrats should neither focus on that process nor shrink from it.
Democrats still believe that no one, not even a president, is above the law. That belief is no longer shared by modern Republicans.
21
Of course Trump may win a second term----the same way he won his first term-----because leaders of both major parties continue to fail to address the genuine problems, interests, and concerns of working American men and women. Both parties offer lip service to working Americans while catering to the profit concerns of corporatists, military contractors, health insurance companies, bit pharma, fossil fuel entities, private schools and prison operators, and Wall Street executives. Those candidates who do address real needs are called socialists, communists, or outliers. Trump serves himself only, and tells nothing but lies about what he will do for working Americans, but the two major parties have not provided a compelling alternative for far too many years.
11
@James: Oh please stop the lazy false equivalency! Compare where we would have been with Hillary Clinton as president to where we are now with Trump. Starting with the SC. And on to health care, taxation of the wealthy, international relations, consumer and environmental protection, etc., etc., You could start by reading the 2016 Democratic Platform. That alternative is still compelling enough for me!
3
Mr. Cohen:
Mr. Colcord is a huge part of the problem, not of the solution.
He advocates tax cuts - in a moderate way, but he cheers them also. But a crucial cause for the failure of Obamacare and four-day-weeks of schools you have mentioned is underfunding. To put it simply: The state has not enough money to spent for it´s duties. Because money doesn´t grow on trees "trickle down economy" is only working in Voodoo temples for the preachers, more deficit spending is viable in some macro´s brains exclusively and printing money by Mr. Trump is definitely a good idea the only way to raise these badly required funds for state´s functions are higher taxes or contribution. There is no other way out. Even savings by cutting defence would not be enough.
But Mr. Colcord and his friends don´t like politicians and parties who tell people this unwelcomed truth. They will always vote for other ones who will promise "no higher taxes" or even "tax cuts". Health are or school problems? Nothing but the result of bad fate and undecent politicians.
Their names don´t matter: GOP, Tea Party, "business-friendly" Dems, any kind of any "New American Movement" or something like this - or Mr. Trump. It´s simply the "low tax message" - even not the "bad GOP" according to comment sections logic. It´s the unwillingness of average voters to face this bitter (and expensive) truth that was leading to this mess for decades.
At the end of the day I must say that I agree to the headline of your article.
12
@ws
What short memories we have. When the economy is booming, we DO NOT NEED TAX CUTS. They cause overheating & extra deficits.
If some tax really needs to be cut, then offset that with new taxes and/or closed loop holes.
7
Don Colcord, a pharmacist in southwestern Colorado and a lifelong Democrat, told me: “The Democratic Party has lost the ability to communicate with people who live in small towns. It seems to have no way of understanding their issues: how to pay bills, how to have a retirement, how to feed their families, what to do about bad schools, how to get health care, how to do better at creating new jobs when environmental concerns take them away.”
Agreed, but when has the GOP come up with any sound ideas on how to tackle these issues?
39
"Colcord, whose father worked in the mines, has watched in recent years as a coal-fired power plant in his region gets regulated out of existence"
.... this statement is a big victory for the coal industry and its lobbyists. Convincing people like Colcord that regs killed the coal industry. It may have survived a few additional years even in the absence of regs, but its demise was ordained by changing technology, and people's yearning for breathable air.
87
I'm not sure the Democrats are quite as clueless as Cohen suggests. For the 2018 midterms it will be sufficient to run against an unpopular Trump with the hope of of capturing at least one house of Congress. If that happens, it will give Congressional Democrats a veto over further right wing legislation and the power to initiate and direct high-profile committee investigations. If as a consequence Trump can be paralyzed legislatively and undercut with a steady stream of criminal disclosures, there will be no great hurry to impeach him. Better to let him dangle impotently in the wind as the 2020 presidential season begins to unfold. There will surely be no great mindless stampede to impeach with the Senate Republicans plainly holding the sufficient votes to block the effort.
Yes, the Democrats need to decide how far left they are prepared to move. Young activists are restless, while the Wall Street Clintonite wing is predictably counseling caution. But a fundamental shift in party direction is one of the basic things that gets sorted out in our messy endless presidential primary process. Right now the job is to form the broadest possible anti-Trump coalition for the midterms. If the 2018 blue wave fails to materialize, the 2020 battles may not even matter.
14
@woofer - Well, suppose the Dems move left and lose big in 2018. What should they do then? Go back to Hillary? Sue everybody for everything?
I believe that the shellacking that Cuomo just gave Cynthia Nixon shows what will happen to 'progressives' when a large portion of the electorate actually goes to the polls.
The Democratic Party has shown no sign of weaning itself of the identity politics that has permeated in it recent years, alienating those working class voters who now tacitly or actively support Trump. Only a total washout of the 'blue wave' as a trickle in the midterms could possibly shock the Democratic Party into the required soul searching. At the moment, they are on auto-pilot to another presidential election cycle as the party of identity politics and grievance.
11
@JackIdentity Using worn-out names to call a political party is an example one of the most outstanding characteristics of the Republican game plan. Endlessly repeating the same old saws in order to feed fear and convince people that "there is something there" is only effective to those who fail to think critically. Like the article, some posts are filled with fallacies. For example, does the author believe that the problems of small-town residents (feeding their family, finding retirement funds, bad schools, etc.) plague small towns exclusively? The reasons for the behavior of the middle of the country are colored by other causes.
16
The Republican party has successfully engaged in identity politics since at least 1968, that is for 50 years.
Theirs is the appeal to coastal elites of permanent tax cuts, privatizing all profits and socializing all losses. At the same time they appeal to the historic racial prejudice of rural whites by using coded language and the myth of "lazy", "dangerous", and "unpatriotic" non-whites and rile up cultural resentments towards the urban populations by having turned the term "liberal" into an insult.
The Democrats' realization, strengthened by Obama's electoral success, that their strength lies in bringing disaffected groups of voters to the polls is not identity politics but a small "d" democratic approach that one day the Republican party, should it survive, will have to adopt as well.
12
@Sam - If any party is the party of the 'coastal elites', it is the Democrats. What party has complete control of California and New York?
Most failures are failures of the imagination.
It is clear to anyone paying attention that the center of gravity, the center of consciousness of the Democratic party has shifted to become upper middle class and lower upper class professionals enclaved in prosperous, safe, pleasing rising urban clusters.
And as those of us who have fled the unwelcoming hinterlands, and settled comfortably into place, our imaginations are indeed failing us. Robert Pirsig (Zen and the Art of MM) observed,
"That which has value exists;
That which has greater value exists in greater detail, and
That which has no value does not exist."
Those of us who have virtuously educated and enlightened ourselves and found our "true tribes," like with like, have no intention whatsoever of being cruel, orthodox, or heartless. No, no. We are certain that next to the word *good* in the dictionary would appear a picture of someone just like ourselves.
But to all the Mr. Colcords and his even poorer neighbors scattered out there well beyond the limits of our contentedly limited imaginations, those who struggle every week in "quiet desperation" - it's all the same.
It is not the obligation of all these people to *actually* cease to exist and trouble us. It's our job to find them, and being them inside the circle.
The satirist Finley Peter Dunne once declared in the mouth of his comic savant Mr. Dooley, "The job of a newspaper is to comfort the afflicted and to afflict the comforted." Well done Mr. Cohen.
8
How do you reach people who refuse to make connections? How do you reach people who vote for politicians that make them worse off? I am just not sure of how you discuss matters with individuals who appear to be making decisions based on emotion. Can they explain how Trump's actions has made their lives better? Do they just want someone to blame? I'm just not sure how this conversation begins. Or do we wait for the inevitable collapse of the US economy?
62
People might believe that environmental regulations have hurt coal jobs, but more losses have come from the use of huge machines to do the work of many miners and the competition from cheap gas. Environmentalism (whatever that means) has been a job creator. There are more than twice as many jobs in solar power than in coal mining, and it's just a minor portion of our power supply so far. Potential jobs are huge outside of energy as well. And they are jobs that should appeal men and women who prefer active work that traditional coal mining used to provide. For example, trends toward using natural infrastructure for reinforcing coastal areas (and others) against the forces of nature will take an immense increase in workers. Yet while 1000 or so new jobs in the coal industry are trumpeted, many times more that are created in the renewable energy field. Where's the fanfare? Of course the Democrats care about people's immediate needs. That's what the ACA was about. That's what clean air and water are about. The problem is that they talk too much. They need trumpet lessons.
37
"Colcord, whose father worked in the mines, has watched in recent years as a coal-fired power plant in his region gets regulated out of existence..."
Can someone please explain to me why it's not possible to convert a coal-fired plant into gas fired by changing the boilers?
9
It is easier and cheaper to build a new gas generating plant. But the problem is not loss of power plant jobs, it is loss of mining jobs. Coal is not being discarded because of environmental regulation. Coal is no longer able to compete with natural gas. It makes no sense to burn coal when gas provides more BTUs at less cost, a third of the greenhouse emissions, and no toxic waste ash product. The problems in small rural communities are far more complex than Democrats not listening. Nothing is going to bring the old economics back.
82
"They see it in more clients at the hardware store, more people eating out, more business start-ups." I don't know where all this prosperity is happening because I sure don't see it in my neighborhood. I see young people drowning in college loan debt, still living at home because they can't afford rent. I see stores and malls closing. I see people like my young friend who died of an overdose last year after he couldn't meet the $2800 deductible to get into rehab. I see my little sister rationing her insulin and my son stretching out the number of puffs on his asthma inhaler so it will last until his next allotted refill. I see myself falling deeper into debt every year with no prospect of retirement, ever. What world are the people you speak of living in? It's not the same world most of the folks I know inhabit.
162
@Laura Benton - But you live in a state run completely by Democrats, and completely dominated by the interests of the NYC metro area. The people who live in those areas certainly don't care about your problems, they want the subways fixed and pre-K education for their kids.
To date, hegemony achieved by any nation in recorded history has been finite. Whatever we Americans may have chosen to believe about our country over its existence, those beliefs may fairly be described as mission statements, the achieving of which will always be works in progress.
To the extent that PT may be described as a symptom not a cause of our current problems, and likewise that PT has the support of tens of millions of Americans, we need to face up to the possibility then, that those problems and the divisions among us as to solving them, point to the approaching - maybe imminent - end of America's hegemony, incontrovertibly established by our role in WWII and maintained since. Recall Brokaw's the Greatest Generation.
Facing up is not easy, almost certainly because it requires considering that which has been, in a palpable way, unthinkable. What? Think about the devolution of the American era?
NOT better to watch football and down a few brewskies. But, no disrespect to Mr Cohen, that's what this column makes me want to do.
1
Before the 2016 election, Michael Moore wrote a prescient piece on five reasons why T-Rump would win the election. One of the reasons was the situation in the industrial states of the Midwest (Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania). https://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/
Yet nothing has changed and the Democrats still have not addressed the concerns of working Americans whose economic situations have been harmed by NAFTA and other Democratic policies.
Voters in most of the West do not, as Cohen posits, oppose efforts to preserve the environment, especially since the last two fire seasons have been devastating. However, Democrats are widely perceived as being the champions of minority populations, such as transgender people, while ignoring the needs of working people who are sinking further into poverty and hopelessness and losing power against the corporations.
Unless the Democrats get serious about really providing health care, job security, employment, fair wages, educational opportunity, they will have a very uphill battle.
32
@Earthling Republicans have been successful I see in painting Democrats as the party of transgender people. The fact is that it serves the interests of the arepublicans to make people believe that one group’s gain is another group’s loss. It is not necessarily a zero sum game.
1
@Earthling: Really? More serious than Republicans?
The media absolutely, completely missed the financial collapse in 2008. There was like one financial analyst in the entire world that predicted what happened accurately. We are still far from that point in time again, but we are well on our way. What is completely missed by the media now is the financial well being a majority of Americans are currently feeling is the result of irresponsible lending by financial institutions. Money is ridiculously easy to get again and the banks and other financial institutions are up to their old tricks under Republican administrations. Yes, the stock market is up significantly and some are benefiting by that. But a majority of workers have seen no wage gains at all under Trump - inflation has eaten the paltry wage increases away. Many are using their homes' increase in value as piggy banks again. When this present party that is happening is over, with the current deficits we are running and rapidly increasing national debt, the United States will no longer have the ability to bail itself out of another massive recession the way Obama did. We simply will be far too indebted as a nation. So, yes, Trump may get another term in office if he is not impeached and removed. But then, just like Bush, his second term will see an economic disaster unlike any perhaps in our history. And then it simply won't matter any longer who is President of the United States. Americans do not learn from history.
29
Mr Cohen thinks that the current administration is responsible for a strong economy? Well, just wait until the tariffs start hitting. My husband owns a small, middle-class retail business. He just got price increases of 40% for products from just one vendor because of those tariffs. There is no way that he can afford to absorb that cost without raising his prices. And I'm sure there will be more to come. So give me a break - the current administration is not doing anything for the economy except benefit the rich.
187
"The Democratic Party has lost the ability to communicate with people who live in small towns."....Maybe, but in the Midwest, those red states where farming is still the critical source of income in rural areas, Trump and his tariffs are not doing so well. Right now at a prime river terminal beans are selling for $7.58 a bushel; that price represents a $13 billion dollar loss compared to last year. At the same terminal corn is going for $3.14 a bushel (that's for 55 lbs of shelled corn); corrected for inflation that is a depression era price. There is no reason to expect grain prices to improve, and in fact they usually go down when the fall harvest starts. That is a Trump created disaster for the rural Midwest.
61
Once again, logic fights emotion-and loses. They will return to the polls and vote for Trump in 2020 no matter what. The allure of a candidate who promises to keep the rich up, the black and brown people down, and the immigrants out far overshadows their self interest or their children’s future. I know these people; I grew up with them.
The only way to overcome them is to outnumber them.
101
"the country desperately needs immigration — some Colorado farms can’t find workers, thanks to Trump"
No, because they don't pay for workers. They'd rather abuse helpless Mexicans they put in tents on the property and pay FAR below minimums. That is not "thanks to Trump."
Is "pay your workers" so impossible TO A DEMOCRAT? That's not a Democrat.
A lot of voters were not voting FOR Trump. They were voting AGAINST. It was against this abandonment.
Democrats used to do well in rural areas. The Grange movement and Robert La Follette's Progressive movement came from farm country.
Obama benefited from that. McCain came though our town, spoke at our High School, and may as well have been campaigning for Obama for what he said -- jobs are not coming back and our town will die. Give up.
So which will win, an obvious liar who promises "we can do this" or his opponent who says, "you're deplorable, there is no hope for you or your lives here, give it up." That is a tough choice, but it isn't going to go in favor of "give up, you're dead anyway."
Now it won't go in favor or someone who says we can't have work done if we must pay the workers. Bring in Mexicans so we can avoid paying for the work.
13
@Mark Thomason The thing is, stupid as her comment was, Clinton didn't say "you're deplorable, there is no hope for you or your lives here, give it up." If you had listened, you would have heard her say that half of Trump voters were in a basket of deplorables, and then she explained that their hateful attitude that put them there. Furthermore, she said that the others felt let down by government and that they needed understanding and empathy. Trump made a worse insult when he said he could shoot somebody on 5th Avenue and not lose supporters. Moral people would say that's a terrible insult to ALL -- not half -- of his supporters.
5
This is the best article I've read in the New York Times in quite a while. Thanks for such a well-stated appraisal of something many people don't want to admit. Trump won for a reason -- a pretty good reason. The Democrats don't have any ideas other than fringe issues. Thanks for this smart and worthwhile read.
11
@david: Oh? And what ideas do the Republicans have that serve regular Americans so well? Give tax cuts to the rich and slash health care and the New Deal? Have you ever read the 2016 Democratic Platform and compared it to the Republican? Please inform yourself before rehashing worn-out memes about Democrats.
3
Give me a break. Why point fingers at the Democrats? Check out which party is in control of most rural states and you will find that it is the one led by the big red elephant.
180
This is a strong piece which I read with great interest from afar. I try to keep things straight but increasingly I see things from the Japanese point of view, or at least from the point of view of how Trump is characterized in the local press. There's the Beltway, we are told, then Main Street or Flyover America...I see things from the shadow of North Korea's nuclear arsenal or the hundreds of millions of potential immigrants waiting to come to Japan from its neighbors. From this vantage, Trump is not so nutty. Obama was gracious and patient but was seen as another fool, a gullible gentleman too kind to play with a bully like Kim Jung-un. Trump seems to the Japanese to get it just about right. Fight back! On the issue of illegal immigrants, Japanese can't conceive of what would happen to their country with 25% foreign born immigrants. Given the choice between Kyoto and Los Angeles, people here prefer the former, thank you. Here too Trump is the sanest man in the room. The shrill accusations, the anonymous sources, the attacks on his son and wife, the movie stars shouting 4-letter words...the press would never print this rubbish, all too low for the locals who favor a disciplined press. A journalist printing such insults wouldn't last in the profession. If against the Emperor, he or she would be finished. Cohen is right: there is chaos in the White House, but a lot of it originates from outside. Maybe the WH will have to improve its security.
7
@David
And what do they think of the tariffs that have hurt Japan?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-and-china-find-common-ground-in-trump...
It seems to me that Trump is creating new partnerships, but not with the U.S.
I don't see Abe meeting with Trump right now.
4
@mpaz
You are right. They hate the tariffs. They like the current deal. Japan has 25% of our car market, we have 0% of theirs.
@mpaz
I think they hate tariffs and are working hard against them.
Colorado has some of the worst funded schools in the country?
Huh. I had been under the impression that the windfall of revenue from the legalization of cannabis would be primarily used to fund education? I guess that wasn't the case?
12
Cohen tells us, "It’s a big mistake for Democrats to have allowed founding American myths of can-do optimism and self-reliance to become the exclusive preserve of Republicans", forgetting Obama's Marcuse: "You didn't build that business, the collective did."
Sorry, Cohen, too late. Cultural Marxism is embedded too deeply in DNC dogma. Not enough time--even with the help from "the usual suspects" in the deep swamp, FBI, NSA, and CIA--to change the message by 2020--i.e., Mueller's Comey-inspired snipe hunt and impeachment are your only avenues to stopping Trump and the Constitution.
4
If Trump is reelected, the chances of averting catastrophic climate change will fall to a new low.
16
@Ben Lieberman If Trump is re-elected, everything will fall to a new low. That is the one thing he is good at.
2
@Ben Lieberman
In 8 years we will become beggars and and beggars do not choose. Any climate will be if one is looking for mere survival.
1
This article is spot-on. Hatred of Trump will not suffice for lack of a clear, compelling message for most Americans. (A message the Democrats have lacked since Bill Clinton.) Do not underestimate Trump´s self-preservation skills, and I personally think the Democrats would be much better off running committee investigations related to Trump´s rampant personal and professional corruption for two years rather than impeaching him and making him a martyr, especially since the chances of conviction are probably less than 5 percent. Let´s get real.
17
@Kit Huh? How do you think Obama won elections handily? I think Obama's message and delivery was even better than Clinton's. If the Democratic party got another charmistic orator like Obama, they would win again. They'd even likely win with Sanders. I'd like them to win with Warren but it seems that some men and women both in this country are still reluctant to hand over the job to a woman.
1
Roger, I hope your prediction is wrong. Trump has no policies to fix what is wrong in our country.
Caging immigrant children, promising to build a wall, cutting taxes that increase our debt and make him, his family and friends richer, imposing tariffs that will raise the price of goods for us as consumers and rolling back environmental protections are just some of the damage that he has done in twenty months.
There is no telling the damage that he is capable of doing if he even survives his four year term. Eight years would be intolerable!
26
"Sure, if the Republican Party had not set out to destroy the Affordable Care Act, the legislation might have been amended to address its shortcomings. But on this signature issue, the Democratic Party is widely seen as the author of a policy that failed low-wage Americans. Again, this looks like elitist indifference."
"Is widely seen." Watch out for the passive voice. If it's "widely seen" this way, that's because Republican p.r. consultants have succeeded in spreading this brazen lie, with the help of lazy commentators such as Mr. Cohen is here.
127
It isn't that we're so in love with Donald Trump, but we genuinely fear the alternative. The Democrat Party is now the Urban Socialist Party. the fundamental bass notes of their message are responsibility-shifting, and wealth distribution and consumption by those who have not earned it. What every Democrat candidate is really telling their audience is, 'Vote for me, I'll help you shift your responsibilities to others, they have plenty, let them pay; it'll be easier for you and money in your pocket, too. Let's consume the nation's savings, they're adequate to last through our time'. Beyond that--shrug. One can only hope the American voters will have the sense not to buy that argument in November. I put my money on the voters.
7
I could not agree more.
4
Exclusive focus on environmentalism! Save the "over-regulated" coal fired plant! With those before me I wonder what has happened to you Roger.
The best thing that could happen for all those poor low SES people would be Universal Health Care. I could explain in detail by telling you about each and every pregnant woman in Sweden who enters the maternal health care system at gestational week 12 +/- and the results of having ALL women get that care. But why bother? You seem to believe in Fox news as one early comment notes.
I write no more but instead wait for a column by somebody who does not see Trump as a "hard worker".
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
61
@Larry Lundgren - I add to this reply that grew out of my comments at the Times article on natural gas explosions in Andover and Lawrence MA where 49 of the top 50 reader recommends simply want a better natural gas system lining up with President Trump. Exception? Guess.
Roger: Do you know nothing about climate change and what is driving it? The president knows nothing about it and his administration will do nothing. The only hope is with the Democratic party and even there we have little reason to hope. In my Massachusetts terrible explosions from natural gas wracked Andover and Lawrence. What were the responses of most of 200 NYT comment writers? We cannot manage without natural gas, just make the system better? In Vermont, Bernie Sanders is trying to educate Vermonters showing them that there are non-dangerous renewable energy alternatives to natural gas. But in Vermont the gas line network just grows and grows - all who support that have to be seen as unknowing Trump supporters, same for the comment writers. Maybe even you who see concern with climate change as "exclusive focus on environmentalism"!
Larry L
The bottom line message here is right on, and most welcome!
Some specifics less so:
1. Most informed voters can realize that coal suffers more from cheaper competitors than from regulations.
Democrat leaders would indeed be well-advised to rein in predilections for porkbarrel regulations, but needn't abandon environmental issues. More sensible, and pragmatic, would be finally pruning back out of control and election-losing identity politics and political correctness run amok.
2. "It’s unlikely, however, that the Democrats will have the numbers in the Senate to convict...Trump."
Says who?
What guarantee is there of Congressional Republicans (most of whom supported Trump only after his nomination was in the cards) indefinitely playing chicken with America's future?
We have an urgent crisis in the White House now: a wrecking ball smashing at America's traditions, reputation, democratic fabric, and political system.
If Democrats maintain 50% of the Senate, and can find enough spine to vote to convict Trump of the impeachable offenses he is most probably guilty of, then simple math says 1/3 of Republican senators joining would suffice to produce a President Pence. His chances of being elected president are even remoter than Trump's, but with Pence as an emergency replacement, America would be relatively safe again. We should not assume perpetual blindness to that reality on the part of Senate Republicans, even if such assumptions are convenient for Democratic incumbents.
4
Mr. Cohen, how can you reconcile the "new confidence" with an inability to pay bills and all the other calamities you mentioned, besetting not just small towns, but everyone not earning $10 million a year. As pointed out elsewhere in this paper, this "new confidence" chiefly resides with the wealthy. It's in their interest and the interest of corporate media to continue promulgating these statistical myths and keeping the rubes bamboozled for as long as possible.
74
David Halberstam missed the virtue Americans always have respected most: WINNING.
The reason that Roger is right about Trump being quite viable for re-election is that while many of us have understood things about Democrats all our lives, those same truths are beginning to settle in with most everyone else: Republicans are about removing the barriers to success and general prosperity, while Democrats are about assuming that innovation and vast sources of wealth always will be there regardless of their active efforts to destroy them, there to be tapped without limit to fund programmatic boondoggles that have never solved real problems but merely assuaged the guilt of elites. Republicans are about (mostly – apart from religion to the more extreme conservatives) leaving people alone to live lives as they see fit, while Democrats are about telling people how to conduct their lives, for their own good and for the assumed good of society. One is traditionally very American, while the other is … something else; and actually attacks America as an active agent of evil.
Recognizing these things is a strong argument for Republicans and a strong argument for Trump. Democrats fail again with their emphasis on Democratic Socialism to develop a message they can successfully evangelize beyond primaries among the like-minded, and elections in “safe” districts. It simply won’t play ENOUGH out there in Amurka to transform us.
“Sure, if the Republican Party had not set out to destroy the …
5
… Affordable Care Act, the legislation might have been amended to address its shortcomings.” Sure, if Democrats hadn’t rammed this kludgey abomination ten years ago, more moderate and effective legislation might have been created to address our healthcare challenges and not merely sit as a suppurating canker on the backside of an already-bankrupting Medicaid. As it is, it became the primary factor in destroying the relevance of Democrats to our governance. And they STILL haven’t gotten the message, despite three election cycles (the fourth was more due to Hillary’s failings than ObamaCare’s).
For years I’ve been exhorting Democrats in this forum to develop pro-business, moderate messages that are SALABLE to Americans. For years they’ve drifted and watched themselves become increasingly irrelevant as they’ve become increasingly strident and extreme. Indeed, this is hardly the end of Republicans or of Trump; but it may be the start of the end of Democrats.
7
He's very unpopular with the majority of Americans, and it's getting worse. If the GOP loses the house, it's game over.
He'll be out by the end of the year.
8
Well, you have just frayed my last nerve, Mr Cohen. It was unthinkable that he would be elected the first time. Imagining that we’d have six more years of him is nauseating. And, I mean that literally. I have to believe that he will continue to devolve - ethically, morally, mentally, physically. I think his charms are wearing thin with his supporters. At his rallys, they are starting to look like people who have been paid to listen to a sales pitch about Florida time shares. The most important idea that the Democrats must get across is to VOTE. No more complacency. There is too much at stake. Let Trump live out his sorry life in Trump Tower Moscow making up stories about his former greatness.
341
Mr. Cohen,
How have the Republicans made life in rural America better? Have they reopened shuttered factories? Have they worked to make schools stronger? What have they done to fix health care? It is a worthless tiresome line to throw out that the Democrats don't have winning message when the truth is that we all have work to do to make our nation a place that we all deserve to live and thrive in.
124
@gwen, but, it is absolutely true that Democrats do not, almost two years after losing to Trump, have a clear message that appeals to most Americans. They need to moderate, lose the crazy wild-eyed leftists, and start speaking to the majority of people in this country.
5
Thank you for helping to corral the Elephant's elephant-in-the-room.
The Dems are long overdue on delivering a package addressed to rural, non-Evangelical America.
5
Mr. Cohen lets someone tell him “The Democratic Party has ... no ... understanding of ... how to pay bills, how to have a retirement, how to feed their families, what to do about bad schools, how to get health care, how to do better at creating new jobs when environmental concerns take them away.”
This person is just not paying attention. The Democratic Party has been showing the way forward to jobs in rising industries, better health care, reinvesting in public schools, saving pensions, and on and on, fighting every step of the way against the Republican Party's efforts to tear down these pillars of American life. It's like Bernie Sanders claiming that Hillary Clinton's platform didn't exist.
32
"Colcord calls himself an “ultraconservative Democrat.” He supported Trump’s tax cuts for businesses but hated the tax cuts for the wealthiest, and he says the biggest reason he’s a Democrat is growing income inequality, an issue Republicans dismiss. He believes strongly in Roe v. Wade, having witnessed a 13-year-old giving birth when he was an intern in a hospital (“That really set my feelings”). He can’t stand Trump’s lies. He thinks that the country desperately needs immigration — some Colorado farms can’t find workers, thanks to Trump — and that Trump’s proposed wall is a crazy waste of money.
At the same time, he’s disillusioned with a party that can’t find a political idiom comprehensible to Americans around him. "
You lost me here! If this guy can't see the" alternative political idiom" the Democrats represent to his stated problems with the trumpanzees then maybe he's beyond help?
Are you drinking too much of that Fox Koolaide Roger?
Maybe check out the platforms represented by the democrats which except for advocating for more coal which affects hardly any jobs and is not competitive with natural gas anyway - Speak to the concerns of these rural voters 100%
BUT remember - Were not exactly dealing with people who rely on objective analysis in their decision making processes.
37
"...if the Republican Party had not set out to destroy the Affordable Care Act, the legislation might have been amended to address its shortcomings...the Democratic Party is widely seen as the author of a policy that failed low-wage Americans. Again, this looks like elitist indifference."
"Colorado has some of the worst funded schools in the country. Some have gone to four-day weeks because there’s no tax money to support them... Imagine telling the parents of kids in affluent metropolitan Democratic strongholds, sorry, we have to skip a day a week of school. But I don’t see the Democratic Party owning the education issue."
"Colcord calls himself an “ultraconservative Democrat.” He supported Trump’s tax cuts for businesses but hated the tax cuts for the wealthiest, and he says the biggest reason he’s a Democrat is growing income inequality, an issue Republicans dismiss. He believes strongly in Roe v. Wade.... He can’t stand Trump’s lies. He thinks that the country desperately needs immigration — some Colorado farms can’t find workers, thanks to Trump — and that Trump’s proposed wall is a crazy waste of money." Yes.
So I don't understand why Democrats are viewed as "elites" instead of Republicans. Democrats don't "own" anything -- not the legislative, the executive, nor the judicial. And I don't understand why both the rich and the poor still vote Republican...we all have grandkids that need a livable future. No regulation, no future. Support for #45 is horrifying.
56
The warning may be prescient, but really, "can-do optimism" as the attitude of Republicans? With their cynical, nonsense attacks on climate science, immigration, decency, and ultimately truth itself, I'd say "can't-do nihilism" is more like it.
74
Good points here. I split time in Southern California and southern Montana, and find most people to be quite reasonable despite very different political perspectives. I have never heard the name “Paul Manafort” mentioned except on a TV set.
5
This is a considerable improvement for Roger Cohen.
Yes, the Democratic Party has problems because it is seen in Middle America as abandoning the working class.
Obamacare was a public relations disaster. Instead of universal health care which ordinary people can understand, Democrats introduced a complicated system that rests on a mandate requiring individuals to buy healthcare. Moreover, it leaves many out and does not deal with the exploding costs of healthcare in the US.
Why are health care costs rising more rapidly than inflation?
One reason is population growth and the growing inequality between rich and poor. The increasing number of poor increase the costs in the ER where they get their health care without insurance.
We need to curb population growth. In fact, we should have done this fifty years ago.
The US population has increased by 86 million since 1986, mostly due to immigration. This has shifted education funding from universities to K12. Tuition in universities and medical schools has exploded. More children mean fewer of them can afford medical school. Population growth has been roughly double the increase in doctors from US medical schools.
We need to stop illegal immigration and enact a one-child policy like that used before by China to achieve zero population growth. That is the only way to make health care affordable in the long run.
It is the only way to stem the decline in living standards confronted by the poor and the middle class.
3
I’m sorry but your logic train derailed as soon as it left the station. First the 86 million increase in population is not mostly due to immigration but due to birth rate of our current population. Just look at the zero growth countries like Japan and you will realize the pressure point with a top heavy ( increasingly aged) population is what swells health care cost as demand for medical services keeps rising and the labor force is indifferent to meet the needs for care. This is simple supply and demand at work. We need steady population growth to keep the labor pool expanding paying into social security and supporting the elderly.
16
Roger buddy,
You are overlooking some very important things. The vast majority of America lives in large metropolitan areas, not in flyover America. Rural America is the voting minority. Most of these people wouldn't vote for a Democrat if their life dependent on it, Trump or no Trump.
The reason Trump is President is because many people that voted for him did so because they wanted to vote against Hillary. He got the anti-Hillary vote.
Farmers are starting to get hammered by Trump's idiotic tariffs. They are mad, really mad. They can't sell their crops. They can't find laborers to pick their crops.
Manufacturing facilities that dot small town America are facing huge raw material cost increases and are suffering from them. That damage is just beginning.
True, many rural Americans will never abandon Trump, but a few will. This Russia-obstruction thing is just starting to blow open. Again, there are rural people who will realise the guilt and seriousness of Trump's misdeeds. Enough will wake up and tip the balance.
Trump should win the GOP nomination. He owns the party. Great! Let him have it and it will end up in the junkyard.
Trump's going down. You took a bath in some poisoned water and it affected your perspective. Get cleaned up and wash that Trump insanity off of you. He's done. Me and my keyboard all going to do all we can to end this nightmare. America is waking up. Doubt is for losers. He's going down.
588
@Bruce Rozenblit
But Mr. Rozenblit, the Senate is currently controlled by those who represent a "mere" 17% of the country?! And besides, those people are actually citizens of these United States. This is one boat sailing through history, and we're all in it.
1
@Bruce Rozenblit
You go Bruce. I'm with you all the way.
@Bruce Rozenblit
Bruce, buddy,
Don't discount the insanity of the Electoral College. Trump doesn't need a majority of votes, just a majority in the EC. With the GOP hellbent on voter suppression in a couple of swing states, Dems will have to make sure they have a candidate and message than can maximize turnout. They've been miserable failures at that for as long as I can remember.
1
Admittedly, it is not an impossibility that DJT will get a second term. But to those who wring their hands about Democrats and their message, I say: Do not underestimate the pure, seething rage many of us feel about every single day the Wailing Baby-in-Chief is in the White House. That rage is going to propel an awful lot of people to the polls in November and 2 years from November.
137
Work with the wonderful cultural treasure and values which are found in the flyover zones instead of focusing solely on the cultural incompatibilities. Next thing you know you'll be caring about their hardship like your own family - and it might spread.
Democrats can be pro-business yet also be anti cyclic-asset bubbles. Refactor taxes on capital gains and dividends to favor good mfg. and services over abstract growth on paper. Keep the lower business tax so that the US can be competitive as an exporter - that will be more important than income tax rates to businesses choosing whether to invest and locate in the US.
A universal health care would also free companies from having to choose between benefit-expensive full time employees and disposable part time employees. For that very same reason, we might also institute a government paid social-security/pensions, with government matching employee payments and leaving the employer out. How stupid is it that companies with pensions go bankrupt while those without survive - that hardly serves to reward companies which care about their employees.
7
Democrats must be careful not to overplay their hand by running a Bernie-like figure. Or Bernie himself.
Stay in the center, Democrats, and don’t forget that Hillary won the popular vote.
The progressives sound shrill to me; they probably sound insane to middle-America.
33
The Democrats do have a platform, if the author would only bother to read it.
Yes, the Democrats need to concentrate on the quality of life issues the author has identified. The new Democratic House would be wise to expose Trump's criminal and treasonous behavior and make him a lame duck impotent president.
But voting to impeach him even with a successful conviction in the Senate just gives us Trump II, which is Mike Pence with the same platform just without the tweeting and the insults.
Many Democrats support national healthcare (which the Republicans call socialism, which to the ill-informed equates to communism).
Democrats believe in free higher education to invest in our future. Lack of a college education leads to an uneducated populace susceptible to Republican propaganda. And often mired in poverty.
Democrats believe in Investments in infrastructure rather than unwarranted increases in military spending.
Democrats know that alternative energy like solar provides way more better paying, clean energy jobs than allowing polluting, planet warming coal plants to exist.
Regulating coal plants out of existence is a good thing. But Trump's tariffs on imported solar panels has crippled the solar industry and killed jobs.
You can be sure that Trump's policies will lead to another recession in 2019. The stock market bubble will burst. And real wages are flat.
By the time of the 2020 election, we will have ample proof that Trump does not deserve a second term.
32
As a Progressive, I continue to be baffled as to why the Democrats seem so unable to listen to what middle America is saying. Wagging fingers and upturned noses don’t and won’t translate into winning votes in the land between the liberal coasts.
15
@Karen Taylor I agree that the Dem's message doesn't sink in, but it's hard not to "wag your finger" at people who consistently shoot themselves in the foot by voting against their own interests and believing the most obviously false narratives because it makes them feel better. It takes a special kind of talent to comprehend people on social security and medicare who vote for tax cuts for the 1%, a talent I don't have.
20
@Josh Wilson - Yes, by all means tell them they are stupid and vote against their own interests! That's just the ticket for getting their support....
It's hard to take seriously anecdotal reporting as a prediction of a second term for Trump. Just skimming popularity ratings for presidents from Truman on, all but Obama were over 50% in the year that they were re-elected and he was above 45%. Does anyone think that Trump will ever get that high?
7
@G. - Many people liked Obama, but didn't care for his policies. With Trump, it is just the opposite.
1
Excellent article, indeed. Unfortunately, the answer from the true believers will be very simple: Mr. Colcord is just a white man, the lowest and most sinful form of human life, and on the wrong side of history, so he should just get lost.
The time for normal politics, which involves getting people who do not fully agree with you to vote for your candidates, appears to be gone. Yes, Trump might be re-elected, but the Democratic left will bask in its purity and righteousness.
Just watch the majority of the comments that will follow.
15
@Gimme A. Break
As Pete Townshend said in Quadrophenia:
"I have to be careful not to preach
I can't pretend that I can teach"
It's your country, your issues, and your future.
Nevertheless, your comment reminded me of Voltaire's admonition:
“Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.”
The perfect is not obtainable (at least not on this planet); however, the good is within grasp as long as people in your country vote in November. And as long as people desire at least an attempt at some sort of consensus rather than division.
7
@Gimme A. Break
Well, I read all of the comments available as of 11:00 p.m. and you nailed it! I love the condescension of progressives against Fox News watching middle America as those same progressives chant in unison the political groupthink learned from CNBC and Huffpost.
I don't think much of Fox News or CNBC and I truly wish both groups would stop their moral posturing. However, as long as progressives can be so easily played by President Trump, they do help to enable his conservative policies. I, as a conservative utilitarian, appreciate their predictability, as it is useful in attaining the Republican agenda.
1
Well said and I totally agree with your viewpoint.
I hope Democrats will win as many seats as possible in November. I also think that if they win back the House, moving to impeach would be a big mistake. It would not address the bread and butter issues that most concern millions of Americans, is an unwinnable fight, and would be perceived as a poke in the eye by Trump voters.
As for putting up a 'unifying candidate from the heartland ' in 2020 the Dems lost that opportunity when they helped take down Al Franken last December. Can't be fixed now. What to do . . . .
28
Honestly, what comes to mind is a slow moving hurricane we're all watching that's leaving in it's path suffering and devastation to the big part of our country, and at the same time moving at a snail's pace, unfolding before our eyes full blown constitutional crisis.
At the end the massive damage will be inflicted on all of us.
No matter the outcome of future elections, the damage inflicted by trump’s subversion will stand for at least a generation.
27
Apologies to Shropshire Lad
Donald this is stupid stuff:
Foreign affairs screw up enough;
Took Nine Eleven off the shelf,
Made fist pumps, talked 'bout yourself.
But oh my God the tweets you twitter,
Illiterate and brashly bitter.
Monstrous, morbid, mishmash, yet
You persist in it you bet.
'No collusion' or 'witch hunt’,
Time to try another stunt.
And we, your aides, have to pretend
That you won’t come to a bad end,
Silly, sappy stuff you stammer:
Still you may end in the slammer.
Why if Greatest you would be
There’s tastier taunts than twittery,
Tweets wound binding is your goal,
Act the good soul on the whole,
Oh, many a wit types tickling tweets
Why not turn yours to Swanee sweets.
Don’t view mankind as men are not
Rapists who grab Girls a lot.
Change your persona, exude charm
Threaten no ally with gross harm,
T’will tax your teeny, tiny mind,
But somehow the right words must find.
Be set for good and not for ill,
And now and then pay an owed bill.
41
"Democrats would be better advised to keep their eye on Colcord than on Manafort." Or, Democrats can do both. Excuse me if I don't ignore the national security of the United States because you talked to a disillusioned Dem in Colorado. The list of grievances that Mr. Colcord mentions are in no way being addressed by the Republicans in Congress or the White House so I'm not sure what rhetoric he's hearing but I guarantee it is just rhetoric, not policy. If he is not keeping up with the devastating affects of this presidency on America and it's standing in the world I don't see why it falls to the Democrats to shift focus and stop worrying about the environment, climate change or pollution from older coal fired power plants. If he's that concerned with bills, retirement, health care and feeding the family, what is not to like about medicare for all, a raise in the minimum wage, union wages, shoring up the social safety net, investment in public schools and a social security lockbox. All recent and historic democratic ideals. Chances are Don's father's job at the power plant was lost to automation not over regulation. Indeed most of what Don has said sounds like Republican talking points that paint a wholly untruthful picture of Dems being uncaring when we are the only empathetic party left. I'm not sure that the Democrats have "lost the ability to communicate" as much as the GOP excels at obfuscating.
207
Mr. Cohen asks pertinent questions- to which he has pretty much all of the answers. If voters are under the impression that Democrats don't care about them (what's the GOP health-care plan again?) it's because Democratic politicians don't address those concerns in the same way the author does and don't explain their remedies in the concise terms that folks who don't generally read the "failing" New York Times would seem to require. True enough, complex problems call for multi-layered solutions. Even so, most Americans don't have the time or the patience for long-winded explanations (as a retiree, I have no such excuse). Ergo, our legislators and candidates need to find a way to get their messages through in the same way their opponents do- only without the lies, the race-baiting and the hypocrisy. And preferably without the PAC money.
27
This is an interesting column. So I have been telling pot anti-legalization people look at Colorado. They have so much money from the new taxes they had to give money back the first year. What happened with all the new funds? How come money for education there is in trouble when some of the marijuana taxes are supposed to go to schools????
11
@Doctor Woo - The phrase "What are they smoking?" comes to mind. It seems like the progressive policies almost always backfire, and almost immediately.
Roger makes the same points I here from people around here. My brother-in-law lives in Indiana and people there reflect the views Roger reports.
today, I got a text from Newt earlier today raising campaign funds for the GOP. I texted back "GOP solution for good affordable medical care for pre-existing conditions = good money for GOP campaign".
The last two times I talked with GOP fund raisers, the first one said in a loud voice "I have medical care, I don't want to talk about medical care!", the second one said "I have a young special needs kid, my GOP talking points don't say anything about Paul Ryan & GOP cutting Medicaid. When we hang up, I'm going to go ask about that".
Roger is right, the Democrats need a solid working class message and strong message discipline. I still remember before 2016 that any time the GOP talked about health care, the sentence started with "Job Killing ..." That's message discipline !! The labor department reports that the medical care sector has been one of the best job growth areas for the past 5 years, but the GOP doesn't care about the facts.
10
Trump will not take the presidency again if several things happen:
1. Voters, having learned their lesson, will not waste their votes on candidates like Jill Stein just to "make a statement." I threw my own vote away on Ralph Nader in the 2000 election. I won't do that again.
2. The groups that came out to vote for Obama, including the young, Hispanics, and African Americans, come out to vote.
3. The voters that simply thought Trump would never win and didn't bother have learned their lesson and will vote, no matter how bad it looks for Trump.
Hopefully voters will realize a basic fact about Trump's inevitable cognitive decline: He is almost 73. Many people agree that he displays symptoms of something, even if that's just an incredible rigidity of thought. Should he win another term, he will be approaching 80 while in office. It's been acknowledged that Reagan began to suffer from Alzheimer's or dementia. A president with even more mental decline, especially one like Trump, is a scary thing to consider.
249
@Scott Cole
Trump's cognitive abilities are so weak that nothing will make them worse. He will just babble and that is all he does, anyway. However, he will never forget the magical words though: I, Me, Mine.
He has nothing to do with policy. He doesn't even listen to it. He is a hand to sign whatever the libertarians running things put on the desk in front of him, and he will only sign when the cameras are rolling. That and rallies to keep the base from becoming restless. It's all bread and circuses without the bread.
2
You seem to be inferring, Mr. Cohen, that small town fly-over Americans don't care about their children's nor their grandchildren's future. I think they do.
They've invested their lives in small town, country living America. I, too, preferred to live in a small town. As a single mother of three I was moving constantly, from one small town to another. I did that to obtain the best education I could for my children. I never lost the focus. My children are adults today and 2 out of 3 are successful.
What you are seeing is not any different than what I have seen. It is persons who refuse to wander away from where they were born. I have known many many people who have never left the state they were born in even on their vacations. Why is that? The world is big and very interesting!
I will tell you why. They were comfortable were they are and now they are no longer comfortable. The world has changed. They voted in that change. They refused to realize that "Preach a little gospel, sell a couple bottles of doctor good" from the Republican Party was nothing more than claptrap. Now they've seen their towns empty and if there is a Walmart it is the only thing, other than the hospital/nursing homes that remain open for business.
I know this because I too prefer small towns. But I also understand small towns die in this age we live in. Those not brave enough to move will not thrive. They waited too long and lost the profit line.
12
I believe the Democrats are crafting a new message, that will appeal to independent voters. Higher wages, Healthcare, Equal Opportunities. The Dems stood for working people when I was a boy and my parents worked for the Dem Mayoral candidates.
Perhaps the young, female candidates running as Dems are the future. Wonder what it might be like to have a government run by a woman. I'm guessing different and better. My hat is off to you and I'll vote for you in November.
17
Cohen is correct to remind us that a second Trump term is not impossible. We never thought that he would have been elected two years ago either, and it happened. The Democratic Party has taken a sure thing too many times and messed it up. The Democratic Party needs a candidate that appeals to those who live in urban and rural communities as well as those who live on the coasts and those who live in the center of the country. This is not an impossible task by any means, but it will require that the Democrats focus on the economy and not on identity politics and culture wars. Personally, I don't think that Trump can pull off a victory two years from now, but I never thought that Bush would win again in 2004 after the mess in 2000. That taught me to never say never.
29
@What is Truth The truth is that the culture and identity wars are being waged against America. By the right wing.
3
“The Democratic Party has lost the ability to communicate with people who live in small towns. It seems to have no way of understanding their issues: how to pay bills, how to have a retirement, how to feed their families, what to do about bad schools, how to get health care, how to do better at creating new jobs when environmental concerns take them away.”
The Republican party is oh, so much better at all that.
206
@Richard
Trump was better at it (communicating to small town America), although it was lies.
Remember he promised to do away with Obamacare and put in something better. He promised major infrastructure projects to put Americans to work and make roads, bridges and sewers safe. A lot of the anti immigration is based on observation that what used to be good paying jobs are going to minimum wage earning immigrants. He promised to bring back the good paying jobs of the past. Trump blasted the pharmaceutical companies for price gouging and said under him it would change. He came out and said the Iraq War was based on lies; and it is small town America whose kids go to war.
Coal, steel, trade wars and bashing immigrants makes a lot of people feel like he's doing something for wage earning America.
It was lies...and anyone who knew Trump's background in real business deals would have predicted the outcome. However, most people without a college education are not reading The Economist.
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@ Richard :
So far the GOP is very good at communicating a resonance with the anxieties and, yes, the hatreds of a sufficient number of voters to stay in power. Against unappealing, clueless candidates with a tin ear for electoral politics, who overestimate both the size and commitment of their base, the GOP does just fine. Ideological purity doesn’t stand a chance - the right wing has that market sewn up. Better candidates, not officious schoolmarms nor rumpled has-beens, can bring out a majority.
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@Realist
@ Sharon
Resonate with the anxieties, but don't tell lies. Best of both worlds.
This column nails it. Come to California if you want to see the premise in this article writ large. State, county, & municipal legislators have made it impossible for new housing to be built here. This is a Democratic controlled state from top to bottom. Affordable housing has always been one of the cornerstones of our party. This state should be a showcase on how well we can execute this policy. Instead, it's yet another example of our complete intellectually bankruptcy. It's symptomatic of a much bigger problem. The growing divide between some Democrats who want to practice what they preach & fanatical progressives who want to strangle everything. Environmentalists will go to the barricades to stop any housing projects from being built here. Mind you we are talking about affordable housing for working class families. Thanks to their efforts the gateway to middle-class security, has been pushed beyond their reach. The ease with which environmentalists can stop housing developments is a direct result of the numerous local & state laws that favor environmental concerns over affordable homes. The result: millions of people are without access to high-quality low cost housing. The median price of a home is now well over half a million dollars — that number is about $240,000 nationally. More than 20% of Californians pay more than half their income for housing. This is unacceptable. All of us have a stake in solving California’s (& soon, the nation’s) housing-affordability crisis.
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Yawn. Like the people he spent time with to write this article, Mr. Cohen seems to have consumed too much Fox News kool-aid. Whether or not you agree that their proposals are good ideas, Democrats across the country are running, loudly and undeniably, on a message of raising wages, expanding healthcare, and protecting Social Security. Socialists, Progressives, Liberals, New Dems; they're all running on variations of these themes, and winning. Democrats are up ~8 points in general polling averages.
If one pays attention for themselves, and doesn't just hard-line Fox News' interpretation, you'd see that the Democrats are reaching out to working-class families with a particular message (again, regardless of whether or not one agrees with said message). Unfortunately, Mr. Colcord and others can't see past their stereotypes of out-of-touch, job-killing Lib'ruls. Instead they loudly complain that Democrats are ignoring working-class people while happily voting for Republicans who rob them and other working people blind.
Also, I have a particular quibble with an assertion that Mr. Cohen makes that is flat-out wrong. The decline of coal plants in the U.S. over the last ten years has been driven solely by market forces; natural gas and wind are price competitive in all or most local markets, respectively, and have driven coal plants (and thus mines) out of business. Obama and the EPA had nothing to do with it, even if they wanted to. Mr. Cohen misleads readers by asserting this.
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@S... Actually, EPA rules regarding remediation of mercury emissions, NOX and CO2 from coal plants have contributed. By some calculations, it costs more to put scrubbers on coal plants than it does to build a complete new gas fired generating station.
But yes, market forces have largely driven out demand for coal plants.
Funnily enough, a fair bit of the Koch Brothers coal from Wyoming was being shipped to China, where they don't have enough hard coal. Tariff's bite both ways.
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@S
The only flaw in your statement is the failure to recognise that FOX is the predominant source of information in rural America. Thus, it should come as no surprise that those wholly listening to alternate, more honest media sources will be grossly disappointed with the reality come November.
The current strategy of democrats reaching out to democrats on democratic friendly media outlets is a recipe for bubble-living.
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@S
I don't think Cohen believes that coal fired plants are regulated out of existence; it's Colcord the pharmacist in Colorado. People remember 30 years ago when people worked for big corporations who paid good salaries and had full benefit packages. Environmental regulation is a convenient target rather than automation, market forces and changing health perspectives.
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Democrats can win the White House in 2020. Hey, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, and could have won the Electoral College with higher turnout in a few close swing states- and that was despite the extraordinary extenuating circumstances put in play by both Comey and by Russia.
Democrats will simply have to put forth a visceral candidate who speaks compellingly and with a resonant message. The talking points, however, can't just be about Trump as an individual. Citizens need to hear more about themselves and less about The Donald. Moreover, the more things are Trump-centered, the more he dominates. That was a mistake in the 2016 Republican primaries and general election. It mustn't be repeated for either the midterms or the next presidential contest.
Let Trump's flaws speak for themselves, and offer people a better alternative.
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Excellent advice, Roger! I live near Dr. Don's home in Nucla and his insights are absolutely correct.
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