Surely you are joking, Frank?? The amount of folks walking away from the Democratic Party is very concerning. Kanye West is the start of a major shift. Wake up.
6
Yes the Kobach victory truly means nothing given that most of the Repubs in Kansas are extreme right. Unfortunately, he will likely coast to victory in the general because the independent will take votes from the Dem. He is truly evil. He is smart and chooses to be a bigot.
8
Counting your chickens before they're hatched, Frank? This reminds me of an old Gaelic poem, part of which I render thus:
"Oh woman of the three cows, go easy with your prattle,
For I know a woman who has twice as many cattle."
6
"The party wildly outperformed expectations" Duh, Bruni, This wasn't being said by you and the Demcrats BEFORE the election. We only read about the coming gigantic 'Blue Wave'.
You remind me of the old Cold War Russian joke - Reported by Pravda when the USA beat the Russian in a game. Russia comes in 2nd place, and the USA next to last!
Dennis
13
Come on man.
Losing is winning is as big of a lie as Trump tells everyday. Only one of the districts voted for O’Connor. The others are scary and despite a lying, thieving, corrupt, indictable president who has a son who clearly colluded the Republicans still won in those other 6 districts >60% of the vote!!!
9
The triumvirate of powerful women from Warren to Pelosi scares the bejesus out of the far right using them to ward off possible O’Connor voters; however, the duumvirate of Trump and Putin is far more threatening to rational voters who care about their country:
“I went back to Ohio/But my pretty countryside/Had been paved down the middle/By a government that had no pride”
Only way to go Ohio is blue come November!
A o way to go Ohio!
8
Frank, in order of things...
(rounded to 000's)
2016 Election:
> Rep: 251K votes
> Dem: 113K votes
2018 Primaries - totals for all party candidates:
> Rep: 68K votes (27% of 2016 election turnout)
> Dem: 44K votes (39% of 2016 election results)
So, Dems got a significantly higher % of their folks to vote in the primaries
2018 Special Election
> Rep: 102K votes (41% of 2016 election turnout)
> Dem: 100K Votes (89% of 2016 election turnout)
So, two likely things:
1. Dems energized locally (united behind primary winner) and nationally (good PR, to have a close outcome, regardless of win/lose)
2. Many GOP primary voters who'd picked someone other than Balderson sat out the special election...In the GOP primary, Balderson received 27% of the vote, while winning...
Even if the Dems exceed their 2016 election turnout by 20% - and GOP turnout declines by 20% - GOP would still get 1.5X the votes as would the Dem candidate...
For clarity, not advocating for the GOP candidate – just for folks to turn down the treble a bit, on these sorts of pieces...
Along the lines of predicting – or even proselytizing for – for electoral college defections, back in 4Q16...
That didn't turn out the way folks excitedly anticipated, either...
PS
All this - except the speculation - out there, in one place...
https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_12th_Congressional_District
4
Close counts in horse shoes. Register and vote.
10
Let’s not count chickens
before eggs.
Take one from his 2016 campaign playbook, one he still uses at his hate rally’s.
He gets his base to feel anger towards minorities and the “other” non white americans.
Now it’s our turn. Think of how the GOP is over turning EPA procection, car emissions, wild life endangered protections, children separated from the parents and put in cages, stealing a Supreme Court seat by McConnel, the list is too long for this comment limit.
HARNESS YOUR RAGE
VOTE
7
Would that I could feel your enthusiasm. Sadly, however, almost doesn't count. And wins for conspiracy theorists and White Nationalist sympathizers have me licking my wounds.... not my chops.
10
Jeg(?) said it best. "We win by losing."
Will liberals ever tire of the press and media's impersonation of
Rob Schneider saying, "You can do it."?
You hate Trump with every fiber of your being. Why? How, did Trump get elected? How does he keep half of America mesmerized?
Mr. Bruni has been around America. Good for him. Everywhere he goes, people want to remove Trump from office. Expeditiously. Legally. Anything as long as it is right now. However, Mr. Bruni seems to go to really blue, no, really azure areas. Azure means blue, to you open border folks.
If Mr. Bruni wanted to do mankind a favor, maybe he could crack the code that allows Trump to hold his voters hostage. Until then, my liberal friends, Trump will be defeated in all of the next elections. Well, he loses when he doesn't win bigly.
What really surprised us is that the folks in Ohio are still supporting spineless Republicans, with all of Trump's misdeeds staring them in the face. Wake up America...save us from the Trump disgrace!
5
The guy lost. It seems like sheer desperation to claim a loss as a victory. And a bit pathetic too.
5
Would you please stop saying close is a win. It is still a loss and Democrats better understand that and work harder. President Trump is a liar a cheater and possibly a traitor. America Deserves Better.
5
It’s never a victory when you lose. “Moral” victors do not get to vote in Congress. Even a narrow win for the Trumpublicans is still a win. Get your people to the polls, Dems.
6
It bears mentioning more, and mentioning loudly, that the pernicious Green Party is the bane of our existence, and likely robbed O’Connor, the D party, the country, and the planet.
As has been noted ad nauseum: were it not for Jill Stein and whoever sponsored her campaign (cough Russia cough), Hillary Clinton would certainly have won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
O’Connor likewise yesterday.
15
Trump and the Republicans deliver a buckeye nail-biter for sure. Their continuing disgraceful overtly racist and misogynistic national message that women and people of color who are smart, independent and vocal should be feared, shamed and diminished as second or third class individuals apparently still resonates with a particularly deplorable segment of their voting base. Add "head-banging" frustration to the "nail-biting" anxiety of Republican hate and fear-fueled elections. What is going on, America?!
4
Troy Balderson tried to tar Danny O' Connor by trying to tie him to Nancy Pelosi, a very distinguished and far more effective former Speaker of the House than the current Paul Ryan. Yet when questioned on camera by a reporter about whether he would support Jim Jordan for House speaker, Balderson dodged inside a Republican campaign office and cowered in the corner, turning his back to the camera, and refused to answer the question. Pathetic!
5
Suppose everything Trump did was bad. Maybe criminal.
Why aren't the Clintons and Obamas campaigning for their party? I don't think they would energize the Trump base more than it is, already. Bernie and the O-C aren't getting it done.
1
"When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36."
Trump begins his self-congratulatory tweet with a LIE. There's no way he could have known the outcome of early voting unless he got it from his Russian hacker handler, Putin. But there is/was no collusion, right? That's what the Big Guy said and he never lies or misleads....right.
5
Sorry but I don’t trust Kris Kobach to do the recount. Or to devise the cost of it.
2
A loss is not a win...and the Green party ensures the continuation of a criminal hyperconservative, dishonest regime. Republicans count on it, and with good reason: it works every time; the left is the proverbial house divided against itself, always, reliably and predictably.
3
Trump will maintain a base of dedicated followers who are drawn in by his anti-immigrant bigotry and racism, who believe his absurd claims that he represents the little guy and opposes the "elite". Nothing will ever convince them otherwise.
We can only hope that at this point many Republicans will want to restore decency to their party since Trump is now the face of the GOP. He has been exposed as a compulsive liar (more than 3500 since taking office), an immoral sexual predator, and a puppet of Vladimir Putin who has no respect for the law of the land.
Concerned Republicans will hopefully join in the fight to recover the respect for the United States lost under Trump's blatant displays of ignorance and incompetence around the globe. If they do, then minority of voters who put Trump in office will shrink to an even smaller. It is a matter of putting loyalty to country over political party allegiance
3
Nice words, but who won? Hillary came close, too. “A Democratic triumph?” Sigh.
Much was made of Trump's endorsement of Balderson, and how poisonous it was supposed to have been... but who won? Trump, yet again, has bragging rights, and his tweets trumpet this - calling it 'self-infatuated hooey' isn't changing the scoreboard... who won again?
Trump continues to act the preadolescent, playground bully, so we need to think in that context to defeat him. When in fourth grade, if a bully chases you across the blacktop, and trips you up one step from the edge, how do you think crowing over ‘almost’ will go over? "Ha ha, I did that on purpose, just so you’d think you’d make it, loser!" (a lie, of course, but bullies are notorious liars and braggarts). There are effective responses to bullies, but whining about 'almost' isn't one of them. Remain calm, get up, brush the grit off your knees, ignore any blood, stand tall, face the bully directly, stare dispassionately into his empty eyes, looking right through them as if focusing on the back of his head. Say nothing, not just yet – claims of victory will wait, until it has happened.
Trump is reactive (and reactionary), so let’s not give him easy fodder. Robby Mook called it yesterday: effectively, don't feed the troll. That’s a good first step, but not enough. Stay focused on his weaknesses, keep workng them, do not allow him to distract and redirect our attention. This nail-biter exposed such a weakness; methodically hammer away.
4
One election does not a landslide make. There has been so far no quantum shift of power in either house. Enough with the pro left spin and just report the news for a change. By the way, given the abysmal way the NYT called the last presidential election, perhaps you should think carefully before commenting on election outcomes of any type.
“Wildly outperformed”, you say? As in a “near miss”? Or “close”? My 7th grade English teacher often said “close, but no cigar” when we only got part of a question right. He sometimes chased that with “'close' only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades”.
A miss is as good as a mile.
Patton observed about Americans that they "love a winner but won't tolerate a loser”. This is why Republicans do everything they can to paint Democrats with that "loser" brush using every trick in the book up-to-&-including colluding with Russians. Some now even boast about it. They wear tee-shirts that proclaim “I’d rather be a Russian than a Democrat”, an interesting twist on the “America, love it or leave it” that we heard from them during the Vietnam War. Trumpian Republicanism has many ugly and destructive features, but first-&-foremost it seems to be about forcing others out.
Democrats must shed all lingering notion that established norms of civility and human decency in Obama's America count for much in Trump's, or that they will automatically resurrect themselves and ultimately prevail. It's a fight to the death we have here with the fate of the nation at stake.
Which brings us to our Green Party problem. All the many thousands of protest votes cast for Jill Stein in 2016 gave us Trump. Republicans finance Green Party activism for reasons that have nothing to do with the environment. It's to divide and conquer us; divide and rule us. The Greens must stop pretending that it isn't so.
3
Mr. Bruni uses terms such as “outperform” and “joy” when writing about Democratic prospects in November.
What could go wrong? Let's count the ways.
1. Demographics. Waiting for the demographic tide causes Democrats to miss the boat.
2. Lies. Credulous voters, especially the Trump base, buy GOP propaganda.
3. Overconfidence. The mistaken notion that its the Democrats' turn. (See Demographics above)
4. Racism. Willie Horton is actually not dead.
5. Shutdown. Trump shutters the government, but the Dems trip over their own feet.
6. Corruption. It’s against the rules, but clearly conceivable. (See Trump and Russians, below)
7. Economics. While working class earnings stagnate, the chyrons tout the Wall St. bulls and GDP growth.
8. Twitter. There are 6.022E14 twitch-fed news cycles before the election.
9. Candidates. Foot-in-mouth disease strikes Democrats. (See Overconfidence, above)
10. Money. TV ads and social media advertising are still being sold.
11. Gerrymandering. One person/one vote is not how it works anymore.
12. Crisis. A real one that causes the rally-round-the-flag syndrome.
13. Trump. He still counts and can mobilize his supporters.
14. Fox. (See Lies and Racism, above.)
15. Russians. They're getting better at hiding their tracks.
16. Electronics. Hacking computers with vote results is laughably easy. (See Lies, Corruption, and Russians above)
This is a partial list. Please feel free to add.
5
I think triumphalism is unseemly and absurd in this circumstance. Calm down. I'm a Democrat, but hype is hype from whichever side of the aisle.
This is tremendous. When the oldsters (I myself am 70 and have cancer) die out and Americans start to be smarter (will this ever occur?) they will not be so afraid of change. It's WAY past time for more than just 2 political parties. The Frontier closed with the census of 1890 already. Time to get over it and stop believing in the indoctrination of the myths.
This is a complacent take. It’s like talking about Hillary Clinton’s lead in popular votes. A loss is a loss no matter how you spin it. That seat in Congress still goes to a Republican. A bunch of near misses will not a blue wave make.
This is a warning sign: that Democrats still have farther to go if they want to turn things around. Donate, volunteer, vote.
1
I understand the temptation to declare as a victory what is, in literal terms, quite possibly a Democratic loss. Yes, there are important tea leaves to be read in dissecting what appears to be a dramatic shift in polling results, notwithstanding that we have yet to determine who actually won in Ohio.
Remember, too, that Trump won the presidency because of a very narrow popular vote margin in only a very few precincts in just three states, but the result has been nothing short of dramatic, in spite of the fact that he lost the national popular vote overall.
To the victor goes the spoils, and close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. If Republicans end up winning contested seats in close elections, the result is still that Republicans claim seats and control of Congress, and Democrats don't.
Voters who want change, away from what Trump and his acolytes have bestowed upon this country, need to get up and vote in November. Armchair carping by disgruntled Democrats won't cut it.
Should Republicans eke out narrow victories in the November elections, and maintain control of both the House and Senate, it will not sufficiently matter that Democrats came close, and the nail biters will have no fingernails left to nibble on.
Chew on that.
Frank, it is also a shift in the political landscape. People are getting worn down by Trump and the Republican Party. They are both dysfunctional. We desperately need some stability. The GOP has been in control of the entire government, including the Supreme Court for just short of two years and they have made a mess of our government. Those that were on the fringes and decided to give Trump a try are now regretting their votes. Women and minorities have had it with the insults coming from Trump and his party. It is time for a change and for some order in our government.
Do not feed any sense of overconfidence.
The entire election is- and will be a nail-biter.
And even with success, the real work will only have begun.
I wish Frank Bruni would stop trying to sugarcoat Democratic losses by turning them into moral victories of sorts. However if there is an upside it's that mainstream Democrats aren't dead yet. Bernie Sanders's attempts to yank the Democratic Party further left is going to be much harder than he thought.
A win is a win. Close counts only in horseshoes...
I love the NYTimes, and enjoy Bruni and other columnists, but I am concerned about the "teasing" or cockeyed optimism from its editorials. I believe in giving Dems a ray of hope, but I think it's only a minuscule ray of hope. I am outnumbered here in TN. Dems are excited about Bredesen running against Blackburn, but I work in the suburbs where most of the affluent white women still like Blackburn and Trump...and of course, they are active in their church, and could care less about anyone outside their social circle...I'm not giving up, but I think these articles can make too many Dems dangerously complacent.
4
After all the harm that Trump has done in America and in the world, I as a Canadian find it impossible to understand how anyone could vote Republican today. Perhaps they do not read the same newspapers that I do or perhaps they do not read anything at all.
4
Love your writing, Mr. Bruni. But no mention of the Green Party? I know their long-term rationale from 2000, 2004, 2016 (Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania), and they nearly cost a rare congressional win in Ohio for 3 little months, and, if they don't stand down in 2018? Just imagine the long-term good voting Green might do. And then there's 2020. Could be even more long-term good rationale at work. Green, please rethink and reconsider and come to realize there is still too bloody much at stake for us common folk for you to keep doing this. Stand down. And go to the polls and vote Democrat up and down, no matter how much you may loathe Democrats. You should realize by now that any professed equivalency is extremely, inimically, false. We kinda need you. Right now. Perhaps in a generation the time will be right.
3
I half expected Trump to tweet "He will win BIGLY in Nov."
Anyway, no time for Democrats to rest on their laurels yet.
As the saying goes, a week is a long time in politics. Anything could happen between now and November, and not necessarily in the Dems favour.
Can we also talk about the Green party again spoiling a Democratic victory? When, if ever, will they stop? In this election, the Republican's lead is about the same as the Green vote count. You think Republicans vote against their own self-interests? The Greens are responsible for W. and Trump.
15
@James Those Green Party members are always there in this district, Always a small percentage that rarely makes a difference, and are factored in by D's. They often just don't vote if they don't have a candidate.And they probably live in O'Conner's neighborhood, Clintonville.
@James There is no sacred scripture which says that we can only have 2 political parties, or that anyone is obligated to vote with a party that doesn't represent their ideas and interests. If the Democrats can't attract enough votes to win an election - whether because of running a terrible candidate like Hillary Clinton or for any other reason - that's totally on them. 100%. Trying to shift blame to others is, frankly, pathetic.
1
No doubt this nail-biter in Ohio is DEFINITELY a triumph for not just Democrats but for sanity, humanity, and the soul of America. But it will be just that unless the Democratic candidate wins. If the Republican wins, Trump will tout it as a win for Hizzoner himself and his supporters will be further emboldened. I hope the Democratic candidate ends up winning, but no matter the outcome, I hope the Democrats continue to be energized and come out in droves to beat back the opposition.
6
I just wish Bernie Sanders wouldn't back candidates who don't stand a snowball's chance. A Muslim for governor of Michigan? It just makes his progressive agenda sound "out of touch" and "unrealistic" wherever he takes it and every losing candidate he supports discourages other Democrats from adopting progressive ideas. We desperately need universal healthcare, debt-free college, and a livable wage for all workers, as well as an alls-hands response to climate change. Backing unelectable candidates doesn't advance the agenda.
30
@abigail49 your comment sounds harsh but it is true, we Democrats need to work together across our left to middle spectrum. Putting too much on an unwinnable race serves no purpose. I think it would help if Pelosi resigned as leader in the House for the Dems. One can see that Warren is now being carefully linked to Clinton and Pelosi by the right wing PACS and that will really hurt her. Please - Clintons stay OUT and quiet and Pelosi resign her leadership role. We need new faces that are tomorrow and not so many yesterdays.
2
Let's take into consideration that ethnic and religious voting still matters. Does anyone seriously think Jewish voters were going to help elect a Muslim candidate for governor?
1
How about we await the concession speeches? Losing is not winning.
If the Democrats have hands so small that they’re forever concerned about what the world concludes about that, then I’m happy for their renewed ability to pretend that they have enormous hands. “Beating the spread” only benefits those who bet one way or the other, not the team that lost. These elections ought to be about more than spectator entertainment and who wins a bet.
But if Democrats won, then congratulations. Yet … if Republicans throw their entire weight behind a candidate, and the candidate wins, then I’m willing to marvel at the size of Democratic hands regardless of the plurality or majority by which the Republican won. I’ll take a lot of close elections, so long as the Republican wins.
One day before Election Day, Trump should address the nation in prime time, even if the RNC has to pay for it. He should point out where we are at that time with the economy, with foreign affairs, with consumer confidence, and ask us whether we want that to continue or we want that to be strangled by a divided Congress.
Then we’ll see how important Ohio and primaries in Kansas, Michigan and Missouri are to 6 November. Just keep in mind who appears to have won.
4
@Richard Luettgen Just as losing is not winning, appearing to have won is not winning, either. The address by Trump that you propose would be an excellent way of assuring a heavy Democratic turnout for the elections, I hope the Republicans take your advice.
10
@Richard Luettgen You say that Trump should address the nation and explain exactly how his ideas have and will continue to have more promise than those provided "by a divided Congress." Exactly who will believe this man who has lied through his teeth, who is delusional (just see his tweets about battling CA's wildfires), and who has put corrupt grifters in charge of the nation?
I
3
I see yesterday’s elections a bit differently. If the end results are razor-thin losses to the GOP, that’s really nothing to crow about. If so many of my fellow citizens still support the un-American policies, “morals” and “values” of Trump and his candidates at the polls, then there’s really not much to brag about. All these things mean is that Democrats aren’t trying hard enough, their messages aren’t getting through to enough people and too many Americans are still apathetic. I fear it also means that, after being below the radar for so long, we are seeing the true nature of half of the country, which is anti-democratic, mean-spirited and racist.
Progressive pundits can put the best face on these election results if they wish, but it doesn’t matter one bit if Republicans ultimately gain the seats. People keep reminding us that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, but guess who’s in the White House.
14
@LIChef "All these things mean is that Democrats aren’t trying hard enough, their messages aren’t getting through to enough people and too many Americans are still apathetic."
Trust me, the progressive message is coming through, loud and clear.
This is hopeful but no victorious. GOPers still squaring the circle with Gerrymandering
4
Despite spending large $$$, O'Connor did not match
the number of votes that the democratic candidate
received in '16. He was short by about 12K. The difference
was that the trumpican got about 100K+ fewer votes than
his predecessor. In addition the percentage of the green party candidate fell by a bit less than 3 base points.
I don't read this as indicating anything more than passive
resistance from suburban Columbus republicans to protest
the insufferably larger number of world class idiocies that they did willingly sign up for in November 16. It does not mean that their
silent protest need extend into the election that actually
counts for something in November. This one was just
a type of ridiculous out of control spending spree by a lot of alpha male wannabees for a purely symbolic triumph.
It also tells me that there's still a reservoir of green party
voters who would prefer to institutionalize and sustain
the enormous evils that trumpicans have allowed happen on
their watch by insuring that the democratic candidate
not gain their vote. In close elections, this morally
myopic and emotionally immature pouting has profound
consequences.
Witness who are federal judges now
and who will soon join them. Witness the suicidal
climate policy that we've all been forced
to sign on to. Witness the daily vileness
on our southern border.
None of which would have occurred had a small
but sufficient number of ideological purists
voted the distinctly lesser of two evils.
9
Special elections are, well, special.
Low turnout, odd timing, often produces unusual results. Remember Senator Brown (R) of Massachusetts?
But look deeper into the results here and you again see the enormous divide between city mice and country mice. Trump didn’t invent that. No, that took two Bushes, two Clintons, the disappointment of the black guy who rural, poor whites thought (wrongly) might care about them too (newsflash - he didn’t do much for urban blacks either) and especially the budding aristocracy of the 9.9% who are most definitely not their brother’s and sister’s keeper.
5
But don’t rest on your laurels yet. Too many are still cynical about voting. Beg, offer and cajole friends, family and offspring to vote as if their lives depended on it. It won’t be overstating the case. Not a bit.
10
Be careful what you wish for, Mr. Bruni.
If Dems take back Congress that’ll be Trump’s re-election campaign.
1
@Tuco Wow. So Democrats should try NOT to take back Congress because that would get Trump re-elected?? What kind of defeatist thinking is that??
1
So, anyone have an educated guess about whether the trump-stump gained the R candidate votes or lost them? It would be interesting, and possible that the guy promising to neglect governance for the next quarter is actually damaging GOP chances. Of course, nobody would dare tell him.
1
Great - another case of Democrats celebrating how they almost won!
Please step down, Ms. Pelosi.
14
Oh Marsha Blackburn is dangerous, we lived in TN when Phil Bredesen was the very popular governor.
Now no longer in Music City TN all I could do is urge folks to vote wisely in November.
4
Dems are flitting about like pixies they're so excited about what a great victory it was for them that they lost by smaller margins than feared. Supposedly reputable but nonetheless left-leaning news organizations are still, even the next day, claiming that elections plainly lost are, 'too close to call', as if they are afraid to break the spell by telling their readers the truth. The faithful reassure one another that victory might yet be hiding in absentee ballots not yet counted. What's going on here? Face the music, Dems, you lost! Effusions of joy that a disaster wasn't worse than feared is a relief expression-form typical of depressed people in denial. People that stressed and unstable are well known to be prone to suicide. Is this a pre-suicidal signal from the left?
2
All I know is, the mighty republicans are shaking in their boots. That makes me happy.
4
Time to call the Russians. (If they haven’t already.) Those paperless, electronic voting machines aren’t going to hack themselves, you know,
5
The real thing both Dems and Repubs SHOULD be taking from this is that the country is effectively controlled by those independents and moderates from each party who are still capable of thinking and changing their minds. Thus, each party should be worried about their respective trends towards their fringes. What the Democrats stand to gain by Trump's extremism they stand to lose by their own shift leftward. The first party to wrestle control of themselves from the fringe will claim the vast but forgotten moderate swath of voters (e.g. the people who want neither Trumpian xenophobia nor the effective open borders implied by the far left).
@Jonathan Greens don't vote when they don't have a candidate.
After looking at the breakdown of numbers from yesterday, I noticed that apparently Trump’s appearance actually dampened Republican turnout. Keep hitting the hustings, con man!
2
This again serves the warning that republicans have, so far, pretended not to hear: trump is the kiss of death to your party. Impeach today and you might get some mitigation from your complicity, but any further inaction is suicidal. However, just so it is clear, the gop’s demise is richly deserved.
4
If Democrats are elated to merely "beat the spread", they need to get out of politics and bet on sports. In politics, winning is what counts. If Democrats don't know that by now...
9
@TS Yeah, I don't see any reason for Republicans to worry or even bother to vote this Fall.
1
I suppose we have to find evidence for optimism to survive. I understand Bruni's narrative. That said, my gut is asking me how anyone can still vote for any Republican? What do I tell my gut?
12
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
I can't imagine why so many on the left see this as a victory.
As long as a trumpite can stay one vote ahead we will not get anywhere.
6
Sorry but losing by less then you expected is not winning.
What’s scary is the swing by Trump’s stumping if it’s actually true.
The Dems need some serious introspection, if you can’t take back seats now then when can you ?
6
@Norville T. Johnson The district has never been this close since 1982. So relax, don't bother to work for your "R" candidate. Heck, don't even bother to vote. You guys have it in the bag.
If Governor John Kasich had former Republican Steve Schmidt’s courage and integrity, he would not have endorsed Balderson. The only path to getting rid of the most dangerously incompetent, perpetual lying, bullying, narcissistic occupant of the White House (Trump) is to endorse and vote for legitimate and decent Democrats in the 2018 election. Democrat Danny O’Connor demonstrates legitimacy and decency while Kasich has significantly diminished his own integrity!
29
I try to keep on the news, at least as much as time will allow and have to admit that on more than one occasion I get Trump fatigued and do not follow every story closely and some of these special elections I sort of let slide. The Roy Moore story in particular was of great interest to me but last nights elections I admit I didn’t follow closely these past couple of weeks because I have been swamped with work.
These are historic times and to keep up with them one must keep with the news and that means I must make time to read. And needless to say it was quite a treat to read Frank’s op-ed on the remarkable gains the Dems are making in their quest to take back the house and hopefully the Senate too.
Unfortunately there is another group of people who don’t feel it their civic duty to stay informed and follow the news and in particular read the news. Some might call that deplorable, but I’ll just refer to it as lazy.
Lazy humans are the worst type .They want instant gratification and hardly challenge the very small space their brains occupy by reading articles from people who are paid to follow the news.
It will be interesting to watch the November elections and it is encouraging to see that what was once a solid red state is slowly turning blue. I have to go to work soon and will feel great today knowing that the Trump tide maybe finally receding and that gives me hope that we can get out of this nightmare. And then there’s the lazy brained types. We shall see soon enough
6
What this election really shows is that the Green Party may be the most effective weapon in the Republican arsenal. Bush vs. Gore, Trump vs. Clinton, and now this. Is Vladimir Putin funding those guys?
22
"A special election this near to the November midterms isn’t solely or even primarily about who won and lost. It’s about which candidate — and thus which party — beat the spread. It’s a crystal ball with a glimpse of the future, beyond the battle at hand and the patch of the country in which it took place."
Any election Mr. Bruni is about who won and who lost. Just ask Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton. A for "crystal ball with a glimpse of the future", I would think that you should have learned your lesson re predictions.
7
I see no cause for rejoicing when half the voters in the OH-12th support a party, President, who stands for what the Republicans represent. Extrapolate their numbers nationally and we get a real insight into the soul of half of America.
If that makes you feel good what would depress you?
15
I know a financial adviser (and a good one) who says there's no such thing as a bad profit or a good loss. "Moral Victories" are nonsense. They are still losses. Yet again the DNC and DCCC failed to do enough, failed to spend enough, failed to get out the vote enough...and lost.
Tone-deaf Tom Perez got on TV and spouted his usual out-of-touch Pelosi-like meaningless phrases about how good things look for Democrats.
In the Ohio 12th, 202,000 votes were cast. Before absentee ballots and provisional ballots were counted, Balderson led by 1700 votes, above the threshold needed for a mandatory recount. 1100 votes were cast for the once-again spoiler Green Party--enough to have force that recount.
In this election, the GOP out-spent Dems by 5:1 according to NPR. Five to one! And it yielded them the narrowest of wins. More, than that, it gave the windbag in the White House bragging rights, which he quickly thumbed out.
Terrifyingly, it seems yet again that the DNC, DCCC, and DSCC are all mapping out a campaign to lose in November, yet again. Every time they do, Trump is one step closer to his "unitary Presidency" and "President-for-Life" goal. Democracy dies with a whimper and Perez excuses. But it's not all Tom's fault. He's just yet another in a long line of tone-deaf, spineless, self-serving Democratic "leaders" who aren't listening to their base, just preserving their own control. Tom was "picked" over Ellison, whom the majority of the base wanted to lead the DNC.
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Trump reminds me of Forrest Gump crashing the Washington Mall celebration.
What with all the planned progress Hillary had in store for us in 2016 he pretty much rolled a big rock into the garden. Goodbye to CAFE standards, progressive SCOTUS decisions, the Paris accords, the Iran Treaty and so much more.
"Sorry to disturb your party!"
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We're dealing with a Republican Party that is crickets on their president's support of Alex Jones, the man responsible for terrorizing Sandy Hook families by telling his followers the mass murder never happened, it's all a ruse for gun control.
The people I know in Ohio would never stand for that craven spinelessness.
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@common sense advocate you and I seem to know the same people.Working with many people across the country, and many of those in small towns, I find it hard to believe the support the GOP has nationwide. I still believe that our country is populated by mostly decent people with good hearts. I am beginning to doubt if I am right. All may be lost.
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Sorry,Mr. Bruni, but a loss is a loss is a loss. Whether by five million votes, or two votes, it is still a loss. Being a lifelong Democrat I've had my fill of "symbolic " victories at the ballot box and in watered downed weakened bills that have been promoted as victories. I am tired of the Democratic leadership trying to walk tight ropes ,fearing they may offend people who won't vote Democratic anyway. The right wing has moved the goalposts so far to the right,that half the Democratic candidates seem to have morphed into Paul Ryan. The Democrats have to lead with their best punches: Labor, healthcare, social security, unity with other nations,and the rigged capitalism that has been squeezing the gasping majority of Americans since 1980. The time for collegiality and civility has long passed. Democrats have to tell it like they see it,no apologies. There are a lot of deplorables in this country and they will never vote Democrat. If the candidates keep trying to appease them, all we'll get is more symbolic victories.
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@Tim Lynch - YES - better to lose telling the truth than win lying by omision. If we do not have a country populated by enough voters to become a decent society let's find out now !
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Roughly 1200 voters in the Ohio 12th voted for the Green Party. The Green Party. The Republican is ahead by 1754 votes. There are 3435 provisional ballots yet to be counted. Left leaning third party candidates make Democrats lose. Every time. It’s math.
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@jkk
How rediculous the GREEN party is,too. Well, at least their so-called principles will keep them cool as the earth burns.
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Special elections in a way they are like polls. The results are not always reflected in the general election. A lot bof things could happen between now and November. Do the Democrats will be able to maintain the mobilisation and motivate their voters? Do the Democrats will be able to bring back the ones whom voted for Trump in 2016? Do the moderate Republicans will stay home? or vote Democratic? Remember Alabama in December 2017, if the Republicans would had ran a decent candidate, they would had won. The Democrat got 21,000 more vote than the Republican. 22,000 Republicans votes for other candidates (write-ins), those votes make the difference.
I will conclude with what happen in Québec from 1976 to 1981. The Parti Québécois won the legislative election of November 15, 1976. From 1977 to 1981, the Parti libéral du Québec won 11 by-elections and lost 0 by-election. But the liberals lost the legislative election of April 13, 1981 and remained in the opposition.
As Mr. Bruni notes, we have no way of knowing what the outcomes would have been without Trump's interventions. But we do have the evidence of historical precedent and recent polling. I fully expected Balderson to win; I didn't expect it to be by a hair (if that). It makes me more optimistic for O'Connor's chances in November.
My take is that Trump's active support for a candidate is far more likely to rally more Democrats to head to the polls, than to spur more Republicans to do the same. So I hope Trump and daughter Ivanka and all of the clan participate in as many state-level races as possible, and use every "winning" strategy they've mastered (keep those taunting nicknames coming, GOP!)
If Trump doubles down in his delusion that he (and only he) is the deciding factor in these races, that might serve to limit him from doing further damage in his role as POTUS. Let him devote all of his time to rallies, Twitter endorsements, and golfing. Every time he speaks or tweets, Democrats will be reminded of what is at stake.
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Thanks, but I'll open a bottle of champagne after we pick up a few actual victories. Outperforming expectations is nice, but doesn't shift the balance of power.
The only way to overcome gerrymandering and voter suppression is with high voter turnout -- with a full 10 to 15 percent differential to counter the party registration imbalance.
This requires effort and discipline, and not the fractious feuds and purity tests that Democrats are known for.
11
When I woke this morning and read Mr. Bruni’s headline, I nearly jumped for joy. Then I realized that the Triumph for Democrats was actually just a narrow loss, and the let-down was brutal. It made me realize that I’m not sure I’ll survive the November election, or, worse yet, the next presidential contest in 2020.
Now, a near win is something. Maybe it shows that Democrats are galvanized, and that Republican enthusiasm is waning. But a narrow loss, or even a narrow win for Democrats, means that our future is a crap-shoot, dependent on a momentary whim, or bad election weather, or a last-minute revelation or a slip of the tongue that lets the forces of evil prevail. It means we’re just making one more circle around the drain, and if we didn’t get flushed this time, there’s always the next.
The fact that a psychotic embarrassment of a president and a Congress that gleefully sells the American people down the river might win or lose by a hair, on by a technicality, or a Supreme Court decision in one state, or an Electoral College gotcha means that the country isn’t in the very best of hands. It’s sick, and sometimes it gets to stagger one more step before it finally collapses.
I think our country is sicker than any election can cure.
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@gemli "I think our country is sicker than any election can cure." I don't think that, but I fear it. And I feel your pain about the headline misunderstanding.
I became politically aware in the mid-1960's, and I don't remember ever seeing anything remotely like this. I've seen the Cuban Missile Crisis, and Agnew's resignation, and Watergate with Nixon's resignation, and a senator and a president getting shot in the head, but at least I never worried about Nixon or any other president being a Russian agent, not in my worst nightmares.
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@gemli The sickness in our country has long been apparent but it didn't become undeniable until November 8, 2016. It is unrealistic to think that any single election will produce a miracle cure. The war against 1930s fascism was long and arduous with many setbacks, so was the struggle against communist totalitarianism. The battle against Trumpism will be grueling too, even if Trump himself is toppled by his own corruption. I'll take these small victories as they come even if they are only moral victories.
There have been positive signs for Democrats from this past election. Now people need to vote in November. Also, people need to demand the vote where there are questions about their ability to so. Voting is really important. Trump is the product when people don’t vote. At the same time, clean air, honest politicians, social security, healthcare and many other important elements in our society are at risk if everyone doesn’t vote. Lots of people vote who don’t understand the real issues. But most people do, and for that reason, everyone needs to vote.
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Trump is like a TV show. It's the same ol' plot and viewers are getting weary. They want to see what might be on another channel. Trump has jumped the shark. Any Republican who thinks he'll have a spinoff from the Trump show should think again. Most spinoffs fail.
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Record voter registration and record voter turnout is the only way to overthrow radical Russian-Republicanism that continues to ride the corrupt fumes of its Gerrymandering Over People.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/ohio/#GOP
Republicans can't stand democracy.
Let's give it to them good and hard on November 6 2018.
And donate a few dollars to democracy....while Russian-Republican oligarchs continue to fund complete corruption of representative government of the people, by the people, for the people.
https://www.voterparticipation.org/support-our-work/donate-to-vpc/
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@Socrates
O'Connor is wealthier than Balderson. He is a lawyer specializing in campaign finance law, helping candidates who run afoul of the law. He makes more money than Balderson and his net worth is greater. Balderson works on a successful family farm that is far from lucrative. He went to a public high school while O'Connor went to a private school. In this election, the Democrat comes from the wealthier background. If anyone is an oligarch, it isn't the Republican. Smearing Balderson only works when the facts are on your side. Here the facts are against you. And you are not allowed to make up your own facts.
I agree that what transpired in Ohio's 12th District didn't leave the Republicans looking good even though their candidate appears to have won. Still, I would be careful about projecting the outcome of an entire election in November based on one special election.
According to virtually every single poll going into the 2016 election, Donald Trump was supposed to lose. Remember?
Unless the Democrats really inspire people from all walks of life and all parts of the country to turn it in force on November 6, we still may be stunned with more of the jaw-dropping disbelief we experienced on November 8, 2016.
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I live in Columbus and donated as much as I could afford while on disability .
O’Connor just picked up 190 votes from Franklin County that weren’t tallied.
There’s a lot of provisional and absentee votes to be counted starting August 11. Cross your fingers.
It ain’t over til it’s over.
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this will just mean less democrats will vote in November given the expectation of an easy victory.
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Tuesday's election in OH-12 was a teachable moment for us Dems regarding turnout - the egregious gerrymandering of that district by GOP'ers following the 2010 mid-terms is what gave GOP'ers a possible victory Tuesday night.
Democracy is not a spectator sport, and every vote counts every time the polls are open, mid-terms or not.
Dems must always be as relentless as those intent on making sure our votes don't count.
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As life a long Democratic of course I want my guy to win. But this ain't horseshoes. In politics there are no moral victories. Moral victories don't protect health care or prevent disastrous social policy. If you win you write the law, lose...
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The 12th Ohio district is gerrymandered and one vote does not count as one vote. Hope isn't enough and neither is calling a loss a triumph. More voters must be engaged for all the voices to be heard.
A state-level push for compulsory voting to ensure all voices are heard would be a good beginning. We need to get off the divisive authoritarian path we're all on.
Democracy does not survive one party rule.
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Even if Balderson eked out a victory in yesterday's special election, O' Connor still has a strong chance of winning the House seat in three months, when more people will vote.
Republicans are on the defensive. They have to invest lots into offices they once took for granted. The tables are turning!
And you can be sure that when Trump's candidates taste defeat in November, he will suddenly distance himself from their (mis)fortunes.
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Agreed that this is good news. However, we all know it will come down to two or three things; 1)voter turnout 2) if the level of hatred is still at the height it has been and 3) gerrymandering and the Russians.
Without sounding too dire, I am convinced that this 2018 mid-term election is the most important one EVER. I am 60 and truly believe our planet will not survive otherwise if the GOP is running the show.
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Ohio's 12th district - gerrymander much? The legislatures may have to tack-on another Republican-leaning county to keep these nail-biting results from occuring again.
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Not a loss yet. O'Connor actually in a great position to be able to get back at it in November. Democrats don't need to be really close they need to WIN.
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Encouraging, yes. But we Dems need real wins, not close second place finishes. Too soon to celebrate. The memory of 2016 looms large.
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Sorry, Frank, despite your optimism, moral victories are insufficient. They do nothing to actually gain seats. Bring this up again after an electoral win.
“... even if O’Connor loses, Democrats will move on from this contest with formidable energy and every reason to believe that Donald Trump is vulnerable, that Republicans are spooked and that the Democratic Party is poised to pick up the 23 seats it needs to reclaim the House majority.”
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Wishful thinking.
2016 should have been a Democratic cake walk. So this claim is no more certain
The reality is this was a special election to elect someone for 3 months. That’ll drive folks to the polls!
Bottom line is the GOP won. You only need to win by one vote - or as Bush and Trump proved not even by that much.
The Democrats will do what we always do - a portion of the liberal wing will reject the nominated more moderate candidates and vote for purity - like Nader and Stein.
In Nader’s case that shift gave us the Iraq war. In Stein’s case it gave us Trump.
And in November it may give us the Senate and maybe even the House staying GOP.
And in 2020? Four more years.
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@Blue
"The Democrats will do what we always do - a portion of the liberal wing will reject the nominated more moderate candidates and vote for purity - like Nader and Stein.
In Nader’s case that shift gave us the Iraq war. In Stein’s case it gave us Trump."
I am haunted by friends who will not vote for the nominated moderate candidate because they are not "vegan" enough
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a nail biter it was, with the lead changing hands most of the night but never more than a percentage point ahead.
I hope O'Connor figures out the magic charm that can win him the seat come November.
Meanwhile, let's wait for the final talley once all ballots are counted. the very fact the outcome was and is still unclear, should whet Democrats' appetite for the sweet feel of winning.
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