Stolen election. Stolen seats. Take back the US Senate. No more judges! Simple easy. And to those who are backing this dictator, stop watching the children's network channel, Fixed Noise propaganda and come into the real world. You are entitled to your own opinions but never your own facts.
1
Why aren't there ads simply saying that Democrats must get out and vote, otherwise nothing will change. I see ads from Dems but never is there a mention of get off of your behind and tell everyone you know to vote!
2
There is no sense in paying minute attention to how a Democrat can supplant a Republican in a "red state." Especially when we cannot hold our own in every critical vote. The Democrats are as difficult to herd as cats. Especially the blue dog Democrats who might as well be Republicans or what is left of the ashes of the GOP.
The Democrats have to rid the Party of the "bluedoggers." They are not dependableness even for the right leaning Clintonites who rule the Party. We need dependable "FDRites," younger politicians who know their constituents, more Progressive and are willing to work for them and not just pay lip service or do fake listening tours every election. They have to run for office, get elected and clear the old deadwood, revive and enliven the Party. The question is are you out there?
You know that “sad” approval rating is higher than both Obama and Clinton’s during their first midterm election right?
Agree. In January we need a new leadership team. One that will not bring a rubber spoon to a bazooka fight!
Mr. Bruni uses terms such as “outperform” and “joy” when writing about Democratic prospects in November.
What could go wrong? Let's count the ways.
1. Demographics. Waiting for the demographic tide causes Democrats to miss the boat.
2. Lies. Credulous voters, especially the Trump base, buy GOP propaganda.
3. Overconfidence. The mistaken notion that its the Democrats' turn. (See Demographics above)
4. Racism. Willie Horton is actually not dead.
5. Shutdown. Trump shutters the government, but the Dems trip over their own feet.
6. Corruption. It’s against the rules, but clearly conceivable. (See Trump and Russians, below)
7. Economics. While working class earnings stagnate, the chyrons tout the Wall St. bulls and GDP growth.
8. Twitter. There are 6.022E14 twitch-fed news cycles before the election.
9. Candidates. Foot-in-mouth disease strikes Democrats. (See Overconfidence, above)
10. Money. TV ads and social media advertising are still being sold.
11. Gerrymandering. One person/one vote is not how it works anymore.
12. Crisis. A real one that causes the rally-round-the-flag syndrome.
13. Trump. He still counts and can mobilize his supporters.
14. Fox. (See Lies and Racism, above.)
15. Russians. They're getting better at hiding their tracks.
16. Electronics. Hacking computers with vote results is laughably easy. (See Lies, Corruption, and Russians above)
This is a partial list.
2
Mr. Bruni: here's another reason why Democrats shouldn't give up on the Senate — judicial appointments.
With the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, Democrats are waking up to the dangers the Trump Administration poses to a nonpartisan judiciary (they were caught napping with Gorsuch). The issue extends to Courts of Appeals and District Court appointments. It's critical to block bad appointments and create an atmosphere wherein the Administration will move away from nominating partisans to federal court positions.
Ensuring nonpartisan Courts that command respect may not be politically sexy, but Democrats should nonetheless give it priority.
1
Democrats want to take back the Senate (and maybe the House and White House)?
Stop making these Tea Party-esque demands for purity and voting for third party candidates
Does Susan Sarandon and her part of the Democratic party still believe there is no difference between Trump and Hillary?
Vote with a little pragmatism. Or live (and own) the consequences.
3
Thank you, Mr. Bruni, for pointing out what should be obvious to Democratic Party strategists. In the face of an administration bent on destruction of our institutions and norms, much more is riding on control of the Senate than on control of the House, since no serious legislation passed with a Democratic Party majority stands a chance of becoming law. It SHOULD have been obvious in 2016 also, when Democratic candidates in several states (mine included) had an excellent chance of winning Senate seats, but for the assumptions which also led to the current (disastrous) administration. Will they have learned the lesson? We can only hope so (or pray for RBG’s continued health).
1
Any of my friends and family will tell you, I am not a date-type of guy, especially at my tender age of 73. But here are a few factors that give me hope, as well as despair.
Though the approval ratings for Trump among Repugants is nearly 90 percent, this may have more to do with the increasing "purity" of the party thanks to Repub' moderates leaving the party to become independents or moderate Democrats.
ON the downside, it only takes a quick glance at Trump's audiences at his rallies and it only takes a New York Second to realize that his "base" support is taking Trump's bait to incite violence seriously. When I saw a photo of his audience in a recent rally raising their left arms in what resembled a Nazi salute, it became apparent that his base is about to trade in their red MAGA caps for brown shirts. This is really getting uglier by the day — by the rally.
I tried to empathize with his supporters two year ago in an attempt to understand their anger and fears and how that could translate into votes for a business fraud, sexual predator, a coward, and a bully. Now I am really afraid of these people. They are now on the official lunatic fringe. They are now in the catagory of sociopaths. But I fear one of them will walk into a newspaper office and do something violent.
As for Floriduuuuhhhh and Gov. Scott's run for the Senate, where but Floriduuhh and the rest of the Deep South can you find a CEO who ran a health insurance company that conducted fraud at every level?
2
Minorities are the key. It is not often that Blacks get to determine the fate of our country. This is one of those times. If you all come out and vote in large numbers (along with Hispanics) then Texas and Mississippi are in play and the Klan can go back to the history books.
2
This is only slightly off-topic. Tonight's results from O'Connor-Balderson show that Ohio's voter suppression practices can really pull it through in the clinch. You can be sure they purged more Democrats than Republicans, and turned away more Democrats than Republicans. The Republicans must love the Green Party, too.
Should the Chief and Master Spokesperson of this new breed of swamp we have been witnessing be revealed?
It is a long way till November with more tweets and lies and Rudy to make unclear what he just said as fact. A Manafort conviction jerks the second leg of a three legged stool from the hoax witch hunt rant. It is still possible Mueller could spring a surprise with indictments or a report. Tariffs remain a problem for the GOP.
In realm of opinion from the cheap seats the GOP failures in Congress to moderate Trump with occasional challenges hurts many candidates in the House and Senate. The logic of a loyal opposition in Congress makes even more sense given Trump. Leaners and undecideds may experience the cringe factor as the vote draws near.
1
Perhaps the leadership at the DNC hasn’t been paying attention, We the People are fired up! Millions of us, have marched in protest and have already even registering young people to vote!
I believe it will be a battle but the Blue Wave IS coming!
Please VOTE!
Since practially every Trunp voter from 2016 is solidly in support of him, the chances of the GOP taking ten Senate seats from the manic pogressives is a reality.
Some of the ten red-state Dem Senators have supported the President at times, but Chuckie Schumer has corralled them into multiple anti-Trump votes.
One particularly agitated Dem has told his ten endangered peers that they should go ahead and vote-all progressive dingbat and not to worry about getting dumped by the voters. Oddly, he is not up for re-election at this time.
Odd, that.
I worry that there is a lot of over-thinking going on. It's axiomatic that *every* seat is important in *every* election, not just when you have a chance to take over a house or senate. Maybe it's the democrats' lack of a killer instinct that makes all this analysis necessary. But in what circumstances would a party decide to not give its all to win a seat? Certainly republicans don't act that way, and as long as that's the case, democrats can't afford to either. One seat makes for a majority.
Generic polls do not predict "waves", they reflect mood. It's well-established that races are always much closer that the generic polls say they should be. Voters tend to be disillusioned with everybody but their own representative. So, democrats, nothing can be taken for granted. Get the messaging right and there's a chance. It isn't always about money. Unfortunately, democrats' history of clumsy, vague, and uninspiring communication doesn't breed confidence in this observer.
10
Here is a good reason to be optimistic: Donald Trump. We still have most of three months left for him to do crazier and crazier things. All that time for him to blow even more gaskets over the Mueller investigation. All that time for people who are just beginning to notice, to see how nuts the man is. This totally unscientific prognosticator is giving the Dems 55-45 odds of taking the Senate.
Yes, Mr. Bruni, we should be ready. It feels like any number of shoes could drop noisily in the next couple of months, and the GOP can't control any of them.
Think about it for a second. 2018 SHOULD be the most favorable senate map for the GOP imaginable. They are defending 8 seats versus 26 for the Dems. The fact that we are even halfway-seriously considering the possibility the Dems may take back the senate speaks volumes to how profoundly detested the crypto-fascist residing in the White House is. Deservedly so.
Winning elections require that you actually represent most voters in your own constituency.
Democrats once dominated the Senate at a time when the Democratic was more diverse and more representative of the States
that sent them to the Senate.
Liberals had more power than they do now when the Democrats were more diverse.
The way to win Senate elections is for the Democratic Senatorial candidates to actually represent their own State.
The country is simply too diverse to be controlled by one Party with a narrow ideology. One size does not fit all.
In order for the Democrats to control the Senate once again is for Democratic Senatorial candidates to represent their own States, to recognize that America is simply too diverse to be controlled by a Party with a narrow ideology.
Lets hope that the Democrats have learned that lesson.
1
Bruno is right that, if everything (everything!) goes right, the Democrats could squeak out a victory in the Senate. But if Democrats lose even one Senate seat they currently hold they are probably toast.
Democrats' worst enemy is not the Republican Party (hobbled by a buffoon in the White House) but the so-called "Democratic Socialists" who want to abolish ICE and who embrace open borders implicitly and sometimes explicitly (see the DNC deputy chair's t-shirt).
The Republicans are not going to nominate a bunch of accused child molesters as they did in Alabama. Democrats will have to run on issues in red and purple states. And the Democratic Socialists are killing them there.
Lots of independents (like me) hope Trump is gone by 2021. But in the meantime I don't want Democrats allowing millions more illegal immigrants into the country to suppress wages of American workers. My hope is that the Republicans hold at least one house of Congress in November and that they then join Democrats to impeach Trump. I suspect many Republicans want Trump gone before November 2020 but want to try to survive November 2018 first.
If Democrats nationally don't stand up to the left-wing socialist nonsense infecting the party, they might lose not just in 2018 but in 2020 as well.
Less than a decade ago Democrats controlled the House and had a super majority in the Senate. They had a liberal Democrat president. Democrats could have made citizens of all persons in the US illegally. They could have made huge increases in taxes on the 20 percent of the population that pay 80 percent of the total Federal income tax. They could have passed strict gun controls and environmental laws. They could have controlled prescription drug prices. Many media sources said that the Republican Party was dead. I wonder what Democrats wasted their advantage on. But even as recently as a few weeks before the last Presidential election the Times was forecasting that Hillary had a 92 percent chance of winning. So why bother voting? Thanks news media.
1
As a 60 year old I reflect on my public school days. I think back about teachers telling us about the evil dictators and ruthless countries that have come and gone and how lucky that we are to live in the USA.
I think of the current conditions in the USA, a country that allows children to be slaughtered in schools and elderly to die without basic medical care and I wonder if we are worse than many of the terrible regimes now in the dustbin of human history.
I wish Hillary had picked Bredesen as her running mate.
2
Hillary had the difficult task of picking someone who was credible but who would not seem like a superior candidate to her. A Democrat who can win in TN was not going to be such a person.
@BKLYNJ
If she had picked Michelle Obama it would have been a landslide.
If there is a god and he is a Democrat, the Democrats will win back control of both, House and Senate!
If there is a god and he is an Independent, the Democrats will win back control of the House and Republicans will keep control of a 50-50 Senate due to VP Pence!
If there is no god, the Republicans will keep control of both, House and Senate – and the country will shortly thereafter be going to hell in a handbasket!
P.S. Yes, yes…. I didn’t miss that possibility… but god could never be a Republican! It would go against everything JC stood for here on earth!
(Resubmitting after waiting 6 hours since my original submission)
19
As a Floridian senior voter who has voted in all but one election since 1972 Rick Scott's appeal makes me scratch my head. The guy made his money through fraud with Medicare and Medicaid. He stole from tax payers. Some people are Tribal no matter what scoundrel runs is the only thing that makes sense of why he won the Governor races. But the young voters are stirred up to vote in large numbers for a midterm and I know none who like Trump or Scott. This could be the year purple Florida turns to blue Florida.
9
I would have preferred Menendez yield to another candidate, but that ship has sailed. The idea of Republicans turning a blind eye at Trump and instead harping on Menendez, who at worst got too chummy with a campaign contributor and did some extra work on his behalf, is laughable. New Jersey Dems have to understand the gravity of this election, and vote D, regardless of their opinion on Menendez, and I think they will. This election is about Donald Trump, not Bob Menendez.
7
Democrats should stop acting like scary cats and start talking to the people in a most honest manner.
Keeping quiet and polite doesn't work at the time of crisis.
Find courage democrats, be brave...that is what people need NOW!
8
I now live in Lubbock, Texas which on the map is colored a dark red. There are 4 Beto signs in my neighborhood alone with nary a Cruz in sight. Last week, Beto did a Town Hall at the Cactus Theater from 11am -1pm on a Tuesday. The theater was completely full, lobby was full and people were standing outside the doors.
2 days ago, he had raised around $551,000 and set a goal of 1 million. Within 48 hours, he had more than achieved his goal with over $1,250,000 donated with an average donation of $31.00. No PACS, just people! Excitement finally in Texas!
21
@Susan Salyer
We are all pulling for Beto. Cruz is lower than a snake's belly.
1
Democrats can’t afford to abandon a single senate contest. (Supreme Court, anyone?) To paraphrase a previous campaign slogan, are you better off than you were two years ago?
8
The rah-rah here is admirable but negligible. I found that the Times is basically a subscription service, to which I opted to subscribe. The sentiments here may not reach most of the audience necessary for flipping a sufficient number of seats if folks don't pay for this kind of inspiration. It seems to be preaching to a (hopeful) choir.
4
We really don't know what the odds are. For most of my 68 years I have usually been right, and seldom been far wrong, about elections. We knew the odds, unless we let partisan hopes cloud our vision. Today we not only don't know the odds, but in one state the equations may bend one way and in another, they may bend in the opposite direction. Furthermore, it's too early to tell.
So, go for it!
5
You want Democrats to win? Then tell them to stand FOR something. Standing against something is not an inspiring message; "Hold your nose and vote for me, I'm not as bad as the other guy" was used already by Hillary and the DNC and we all know how that turned out. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders was filling colosseums with raucous crowds and polling well even in red states because he stood FOR something. He had an agenda and articulated it. But you see, the Democrats have such a hard time doing this basic task of politicking because it conflicts with their donors and their wishes which are diametrically opposed to the wishes of the majority of voters. Why do you think the Democrats have been wiped out at every level of government having lost over a thousand seats? It's because they don't stand for anything except what their Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and corporate donors want.
7
@FXQ
As I recall, Hillary won 4 million more votes than Bernie did and nearly 3 million more votes than Trump.
My thoughts/suggestions are slightly off topic. I think it is pretty ridiculous that US has importation congressional elections every two years. Members of the House maybe spend a year and half doing their job and the rest of their term fund raising and campaigning. The public mood seems to swing every two years and that causes instability. As far as I know, no other Western country has important elections that often.
Wouldn't it be better to hold Congressional elections every four years? That way, members of Congress might have no choice but work with each other. Also, if one party has an absolute majority, they get to enact their agenda. Then voters can fully judge how good that agenda is and whether it is good for the country or not...
1
@Ilya Senate elections are staggered--that's supposed to stabilize things to some extent. I think the real solution to the very legitimate issue you raise is publicly funded elections. No more private campaign donations, which, let's face it, have become little more than bribes. Let's takes fundraising out of the equation entirely. Let's just have the person with the best ideas win.
7
As a gay man, a social worker, an atheist, a Bhuddhist, an environmentalist, and a life-long liberal democrat.... this "presidency" is a hellish bardo of violence and malevolence. Like everything, it is ephemeral. Like a bad car crash it will take months or years of repair and healing but there will be benevolent changes soon. Frank we always look forword to your articles, thank you.
12
I think, if many of the miscalculations from 2016 election on is any indication, the Democratic Party has a pretty poor idea of what appeals to voters and what does not. Elections from Donald Trump's victory on has delivered a lot of surprises, sometimes good for the Democrats and sometimes not. But the takeaway should be to re-evaluate conventional wisdom. When conventional wisdom doesn't work, rational thinking suggests you should go outside of conventional thinking and try something else.
3
citybumpkin--Establishment, corporatist Democrats have little idea of what will win elections, and they seem to want to do the same old stuff, as if they could plant a radish seed, and expect to get a carrot. Certainly, a Democrat is way better than a Republicans, but our party needs help in settling platform issues and broadening its membership. Progressives are the new moderates, because Republicans have moved so far right that they make us look extreme. But our ideas, of fair taxation, improved infrastructure, better education, no more war, smaller military budgets, health care for everyone, assistance for our 3rd world poor people (as identified by the UN,) reasonable immigration to keep our population growing and fill needed job openings, free/fair trade, good relations with our allies (that are not dictatorships,) living wage for all, stiff background checks and a ban on war weapons for weapons ownership, support for the Constitution with voters' rights, freedom of speech, freedom of association, freedom OF religion (NOT vague Religious Liberty.) Democrats, let come together. We have more in common than we have differences. Progressives are ready to unify, with some compromises. How about the Establishment? The most important thing is to defeat Republicans, in the best interests of our country, and for the stability of our democracy.
6
ChesBay--I meant to say that these principles are supported by most Americans, and establishment Democrats should wake up to this fact. With the right legislation, and budgeting, we can have everything we need to make this a better place for all of us.
1
I'm not faulting the premise that the Democrats might have more chance of regaining control of the House rather than the Senate BUT I find it unbelievably TRAGIC that, based on the horrific last 2 years of total malfeasance in every aspect of how our federal government has acted that the idea of not being able to lance the boil of GOP governance could be anything other than a certainty. In my view, the fact that the GOP might retain control of the Senate is confirmation that any hope of this country continuing as a "united" states is impossible. When any change might finally occur in the way this conglomeration of states remain intact I cannot say. What might replace it, likewise I know not (perhaps a federation of 2 independent republics?). What I do know is that no middle area exists that might serve as the glue holding the left and right together. I have more in common with the man in the moon than I do with those politicians from, say, Alabama. Or Mississippi. Or South Carolina. I don't WANT those people having a say in what policies run MY life no more than they want my views (tolerance, civil rights etc) interfering with theirs. Time to admit that we lost the War of Independence which threw people of far different values into a country with a single federal government and look for a better solution to our myriad problems. Can anyone doubt that our country is seriously declining in spite of some short-term economic gains?
10
I think the Democratic party needs to fortify their stance on climate control. It's probable most Americans have gotten a heavy dose of climate warming reality in the past few weeks. Climate warming could become even more bizarre in the near future, and the need to address it is certainly not going to be addressed by a GOP control of the senate.
4
Wish Democrats would stop rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. This mid term is a national emergency. If we don’t get control of the House and Senate, and maybe a governor or two, this nation is doomed. Splitting hairs about socialist and moderate candidates is stupid and defeating. If you cherish the values this nation has, until now supported, freedom of speech, the press, civil rights, do not withhold your vote. Vote Democrat, your life could depend on it. Remember, concentration camps for children, kissing Putin’s behind, those scary rallies, tax giveaways to the rich, to name just a few outrages. Parkland, Sandy Hook Charlottesville. Pay attention. The perfect is the enemy of the good .
32
@Suzalet ”Vote Democrat, your life could depend on it".
Really? I read remarks like that, and when those same people froth at the mouth over Trump, (unsurprisingly) I question the objectivity of what they are saying. I didn't vote for Trump, not a fan particulary, but ironically when people are afflicted with bouts of mania/hysteria labelling Trump as somewhere between Hitler and Satan, it kinda sorta makes me question if Trump is the fundamental problem.
Some folks rant and rave about how irrational Trump is, and all I can think about is the irony of it all.
Two of your own wrote "When your policies don’t help the people who’ve been voting for you, it doesn’t take the machinations of Russian hackers to lose elections." To which I might add... wise up Democrats!
5
With a Democratic Party platform of open borders, disband ICE and bathroom choices, what could go wrong?
14
@Truth Teller if nothing else, tamp it down on the disbanding of ICE! Don't play with matches near a leaking gas tank.
@Truth Teller: Ha Ha through in, "free" college and "free" healthcare, raising taxes, some more identity politics, and the "We are not them!" offering as well and it's a lock... for the Republicans!
4
Equally important to taking back the Senate are efforts to regain governorships and state legislatures in 2018 and 2020.
Gerrymandering, voter suppression, and voter roll purges happen in the states. They are part and parcel of what's been an ascendant Republican Party despite representing a minority of voters.
And state governments also have an opportunity to throw out the undemocratic Electoral College. No need for a constitutional amendment if enough states sign on to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
8
It's a shame that, in a democracy, any party would give up on any state or any voters. The essence of democracy is giving voters a choice, disciplining elected leaders, and finding better solutions.
The Democrats failure to campaign vigorously in southern and mid-western states, I would argue, has made it easier for a cult of Fox followers to dominate the information space.
Fortunately for all of us, Bernie recognized those shortcomings and started doing something about them. It heartens me to see Alexandria, and others, following in those footsteps.
If we never explain our views to our rural friends (and listen to theirs) we can't blame them for not understanding.
7
Please, insofar as possible, put money where your mouth is in this election, especially in states where senate seats are in play. My spouse and I paid into social security for more than fifty years and we are frugal enough to live on it. We have been fortunate and are giving back. This year we are giving our IRA RMDs as QCDs to organizations that educate and register voters and get out the vote. And at the same time we pay less into the MIC! And don't forget that campaign/election reform is long term ISSUE ONE. Read "Tailspin" by Steven Brill for more information. Thank you.
5
Democrats have been unable to offer an argument for why Republicans should be turned out and they should be elected instead, because if Democrats were in power and things were going at least as well as they are in America, they would think reelection was self-evident. What you have to reckon with, Mr. Bruni, is that the people you might be comfortable socializing with are not necessarily the people even you would want making the big decisions and leading the nation.
4
If God DOES truly care about this country, as so many people think, then the Dems will take the Senate. Admit it GOP, you are thinking with your gut, not your head. Any student of American history and jurisprudence knows the current GOP is taking us on a course where the American oligarchs will rule this country for generations. In fact, the GOP IS the oligarch’s party.
Give me the Nelson Rockefeller, Dwight Eisenhowe types. Where are they in today’s GOP? Driven out.
There is no other choice, vote Democratic.
4
@Lon Zo, God does care about this country, but we have to vote if we won't to enact change.
I followed the midterm race for almost 2 years, I believe Democrat chance to take the Senate is much greater than anyone believe, more likely Democrats will be 51/49 or even 53-47 after the midterm election . The reason people don't have much hope because the Republican-controlled propaganda made it like it is a no-chance, most are deception by the American media/corporations which are all controlled by billionaires who are conservatives, and Republicans... who took Republican side al the times.
1
I wonder if it's truly a satisfying result for Democratic supporters, if they retake both houses of Congress, but with a good number of Senators and Congresspeople who side with Trump often. For me it's fine, because I'm pretty middle of the road, just left of center. And sure, if the goal is for "Team Democrat" to beat "Team Republican," well then, they can declare victory. But if you're a liberal or among the growing social democrats, then policy-wise, I don't know if you'll be happy with the victory.
Thinking long term, the Democrats would have been wise to find any way to push Menendez and others involved in any corruption to withdraw. These people are a sore on either party that only becomes a big liability when that party is the one that controls Congress and/or the Presidency.
3
@Joel - I agree but the country has way bigger fish to fry than Menendez - he wins in a rout.
1
For the first time in, well, as long as I can remember, we, here in Georgia, have great candidates running in most, if not all, races. This means that we may possibly have the first Black Woman Governor, and be introducing several new faces to our own house as well as Congress. Since our two Sens. are safe this year, we'll have to wait to send them packing. If Georgia goes Blue, I expect we'll be joined by several other states.
It will take a lot of campaigning to get voters out, but there is a strong movement here that's willing to do the work.
Jumping on the health care issues, tax reductions for the wealthy and the tariffs placed on our farm products (with the attempt to bribe farmers with "welfare" which they scorn), are all issues that should bring out voters.
We all need to encourage friends, relatives and strangers to get out and VOTE! Also, requesting absentee ballots or paper ballots (some places the same) can help keep your vote safe.
Everyone must believe that their vote counts. However, it only counts if it's in the ballot box! Let's make the blue wave be a Tsunami.
9
One thing IMO people & polls aren't paying attention to: These 2018 major elections are not always two-people races anymore. In Texas, in addition to Ted Cruz/Beto O'Rourke running for Senate, Libertarian Neal Dikeman is on the ballot; in June he polled at 2 percent in the University of Texas poll, with 17% undecided.
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/06/25/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-poll-5-poi...
But symptomatic of the two-party fixation, a brand new Qunnipiac poll only asked Texas voters about Cruz (49%) and O'Rourke (43%); Dikeman's name wasn't an option. Might not sound like much, but vote totals of presidential candidates Gary Johnson (3.3 %) and Jill Stein (1.1%) wreaked some havoc in 2016, especially in a few states.
Arizona:
Donald Trump 1,252,401
Hillary Clinton 1,161,167
Gary Johnson 106,327
Jill Stein 34,345
Write-ins 18,925
https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_Arizona,_2016
One could argue that some Republican/Independent voters who dislike Cruz would vote for O'Rourke - if that was the only option. Now they have another in Libertarian Dikeman. Some 2018 elections are going to be very close; look at the numbers of Conor Lamb's celebrated Democratic win:
Conor Lamb 113,813 49.8%
Rick Saccone 113,186 49.6%
Drew Miller Libertarian 1,379 0.6%
The wild-card factor of the third party vote - silent until it's not - will IMO make close results like Rep. Lamb's common in 2018/2020 - and the results could go either way.
9
Wasn’t there a recent study showing that voters are moved by cultural issues rather than economic ones? Perhaps if the economy was tanking it would be different. But it is not. The economy is doing well - so far. And on the cultural issues, Democrats put themselves at a disadvantage. Forget about guns and abortion - there is no use arguing with the minority for whom these are the main issues. But what about freedom of speech? This is as mainstream a cultural issue as can be, and the Democrats are finding themselves on the wrong side of it all too often, what with “triggers”, banning conservative speakers and apologizing for poems. Immigration? It has a cultural aspect too: is the US a sovereign nation state or not? How about socialism? It is as tainted a word as fascism; why would Democrats willingly associate themselves with it? With Trump’s idiotic tweets about the press, the Democrats have the opportunity to position themselves in the liberal center and present themselves, rather than Republicans, as defenders of the Constitution.
4
@Mor
The word "socialism" is really only tainted for older people who think of the USSR. For younger people, "socialism" evokes Scandinavian wellness.
1
@H Why don’t you ask young people in Scandinavia what “socialism” means for them? I lived in Europe. Nobody in their right mind there would confuse socialism and social democracy. Sure, there are socialist parties there, just as there are Neo-Nazi parties in many European countries. But everybody knows that socialism means state ownership of the means of production and forced redistribution of resources. For some, it is their cup of tea, just as racial purification is their cup of tea for the neo-Nazis. And this is not because everybody in Europe personally remembers the USSR but because they read books. If American millenials don’t know what happened 30 years ago, it is a testament to the inadequacy of public education in this country. In any case, there are enough horror dispatches from Venezuela to remind all but the brain dead what socialism is all about.
@H I am older and socialism is not a tainted term for me. I think of the USSR as communism, not socialism. Scandanavia = socialism.
If the Democratic Party gives up on the Senate, then I'm ready to give up on them. By approving lifetime judges to the federal courts, the Senate will decide the makeup of our third branch of government for the next thirty years. Trump and the Senate Republicans are busy packing our courts with conservatives for a judicial end-run should the Democrats ever control Congress and the White House again.
Someone asked me, so I wrote out a list of characteristics of Trump's judicial nominees. The vast majority of Trump's nominees have at least a few of these characteristics on record.
-- anti civil rights, with history of supporting voter suppression efforts against minorities (e.g., voter ID & gerrymandering)
-- anti worker & workplace safety; committed to weakening unions
-- against Affordable Care Act
-- against common sense gun control, belongs to NRA
-- against abortion rights, sometimes even contraceptives
-- against marriage equality & LGBTQ rights
-- anti-environmental
-- anti consumer rights
In a rosy future scenario, a Democratic Congress and a Democratic President can pass all the progressive legislation they like, but those new laws will be challenged in the courts. Trump's judges will be waiting for them there. Those judges can overturn, gut, or weaken any laws that the Democrats pass. Wake up, Democratic Party.
6
@DJY
You forgot against the Voting Rights Act.
I am beginning to question the motives and/or competency of the National Democratic party.
It's behavior seems to reflect pallid support for any democratic nominee other than the weak line the party offers, -shades of the milk-toast Clinton posture offered in 2016 .
No clear statement of what the platform is or aims to be other than tRump is bad. We know that!
We need to know what we are buying or else the Red Republican party is going to run over us again.
I strongly hope the DNC has not also sold out to the Russians,
2
Forgot about Trump's personality (for a minute). Democrats have to hit Trump directly regarding his policies such as INCREASING the budget deficit and arguing in court that heath insurance companies should be allowed to DISCRIMINATE against pre-existing conditions. Both are the OPPOSITE of what he promised during the campaign.
Even those foolish enough to vote for Trump for president should be able to understand such basic arguments.
18
Significantly and reliably, for decades now, the US economy does better under Democrats than under Republicans. In the name of all that is holy, why don't Democrat candidates shout that from the rooftops?
20
Have we not learned anything about the weakness of polling? Obsessing over the supposed meaning of any poll results might make for easy columns to write, but it's not the least bit helpful and more likely leads a lot of people to conclude that their votes won't matter.
4
The Republicans have a secret weapon that is the real key to their success.
That weapon is. . . Voter apathy.
Add a splash of gerrymandering, and another touch of voter suppression, and you have a combination that is extremely hard to beat.
It’s true that we elect people who are supposed to do what’s best for all Americans and thus the country.
Our system lacks serious protection from those who seek to use their positions for personal gain, and we now gave a government that is controlled completely by corporations and special interests.
There has been a silent coup, and it’s now or never for America as envisioned by our founders.
“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity. . . “
It appears that a very vocal minority want this to end.
10
Excellent article- Dems have a great chance to win the senate. While Trump attracts crowd in his rallies, many come there to enjoy a freak show for free which does not equate to support. But, there is one caveat. They need to beat Trump in his own game by focusing on the daily scams by his swamp. Dems need to counter Trump’s propaganda with strong coherent message supporting the basic needs of our existence- the air we breathe, water we drink, jobs and education we need. While cheap rheotrics work to win the primary elections, they are worthless in general elections. They need to understand the concern of the people whether they are red or blue and counter them with pragmatic solutions. Stop the nonsense of sanctuary cities, abolition of ICE and false promises to provide free college, health care etc. etc. By doing so, the party becomes the same as the corrupt Trump machine. The right, left and middle in the party need to be disciplined noting the disastrous impact of the federal judges appointment by Trump for life. Trump will go after 4 or 8 years. But these corrupt morally bankrupt judges would destroy our nation under the direction of their paymastersfor the next 2-4 decades. The so called progressives need to think deeper what is important for the nation. Otherwise, they will give the Republican win on a silver platter in the midterm. Hope they have the sense to understand the serious implication of their behavior on the future of our great nation.
2
We've had Democratic Senate's before, and just what did they do for the so-called 'Average Joe' to deserve being in charge 'again'?
Not that it seems to matter, what have the Republicans done other than a so-called 'Tax Cut' that will have to be paid for later!
Dennis
5
@Dennis
The Democrats gave us Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the ACA for starters. They also gave us environmental protections that - had they been kept - might have headed off the worse of climate change. (Those wildfires burning up the west and the intense hurricanes in the east aren't accidents, neither is the rising tide in Miami.)
The Democrats under Clinton gave us a balanced budget.
20
@nora m
Dea nora,
Each of those you mentioned except for the ACA had some Republican support. To be honest, just because someone in this case the Republicans don't support why you and others 'claim' to be for the so-called 'Average Joe' I mentioned, doesn't mean they're evil, it usually means they have a difference of opinion. As the Republicans say, it's easy to spend the citizens money to get yourself elected!
Also you need to understand it's not the Republicans who 'caused' climate change. What many people believe is and this is important to understand the distinction is that is this climate change 'Man-made' or is it a natural cycle.
We have volcano's spewing mega-tons of ash into the air, and this has caused serious climate changes in the past. China and India are the absolute worst polluters especially China in coal burning, not the Trump Republicans.
I hope this leaves you better informed, and as my first post stated, I'm not defending either political party.
@nora m - democratic congresses are also the ONLY congresses that have voted to increase the minimum was. Stunning to me that people are still asking this question.....STUNNING!
1
What drives me crazy is that many of my liberal friends, educated, upper middle class, well-meaning citizens who deplore Trump, are hesitant to support out-of-state viable Senate or House candidates with money donations. Yet, I ask, how else, but through cash, can we support them, helping to increase their chances to win?
The first time I made a political donation was to Obama’s first campaign. In the past, it always seemed strange, out of character, to donate money to a political candidate or party. Maybe I thought the big-shot money guys would take care of it. Now, with an American form of neo-fascism staying me in the face, I’ve no problem giving money to out-of-state candidates. Everyone should donate. This fall’s election is the chance to end this current spasm of the American berserk.
We may not get another chance.
22
As a Republican I don’t care much about the house as no major legislation will happen anyway, and I would like some oversight of Trump. The Senate, on the other hand, is crucial in my mind to salvaging any hope of normalcy given the changing demographics favoring liberals. Some traditional America needs to be preserved. We need to keep the court appointment machine churning so that the next liberal president is kept sharply in check.
4
What exactly does "traditional America" mean and who does it exclude?
20
Traditional America was often referred to as "flyover country" by Democrats. Problems and successes there do not matter to the elite with correct ideas who live near the coasts.
1
@KellyNYC
For one people who obey the law and don't want to reward illegal aliens for invading our country.
Mitch McConnell is the most partisan and the most backward-looking Speaker of the Senate in American history. The only way to dislodge him is to annul the Republican majority in the Senate.
I appeal to voters to vote in droves to elect Democratic senate candidates in the upcoming elections.
Refusing to hold senate hearings on the approval of Merrick Garland for Supreme Court Justice, the foolish tax cuts for the rich, and cutting back on 'Obamacare' was largely McConnell’s doing. The Constitution does not mean much to him. He twists it according to his own highly partisan and backward-looking conservative beliefs. And the current Supreme Court, which is supposed to be unbiased and fair, stands behind him. He has to go.
39
Voters in red states where Trump triumphed—and is still wildly popular—have reached a watershed moment. They must decide which is more important in the long run—the “romance” of the disappearing white American, or the hard, anonymous work of rebuilding a country whose civic landscape has come to resemble the scenic postwar horrors of Japan or Germany.
West Virginia; Tennessee; Missouri; North Dakota; even the impossible-to-scale Mississippi. Republican-leaning voters in all these states and others mentioned in Mr. Bruni’s piece have, whether they realize it or not, come to perhaps the most consequential decision of their lives. Are they strong enough to throw off a lifetime of baked-in prejudices to turn against a way of life and thought in which they have reached a comfort level that they’re not sure exists across the ideological divide?
It looks dicey for Joe Manichin (WV); Heidi Heitkamp (ND); and Claire McCaskill (MO). They have to campaign beyond the president and tackle issues that would (and will) be out there even if we lived in a normal political environment. They have to prepare for the day when we have moved on from No. 45. If voters hold to their fears, we’ll always be stuck on No. 45.
Who said nation-building and the wearying task of keeping it in order would be easy? These are patriotic, civic virtues in and of themselves and worth fighting for—unless America, underneath its surface, is an amalgam of the Balkans.
Red state Americans: it’s all on you, now.
16
Voters in states Hillary won must ask, "Am I better off now than I was three years ago when a Democrat was President?"
1
@Robert Winchester - Easy answer here - NO
I'd have liked to hear a little more about Baldwin in WI and Tina Smith.
Who is Tina Smith, you ask?
She is the person selected to replace Al Franken after Saint Gilibrand of the Church of #MeToo forced Franken out of the Senate over claims by a pin up girl that he performed poorly in a bawdy, sex charged skit she agreed to do with him for the troops ten or so years ago.
Both MN seats are in play this year because of that.
14
If the dems suggest her as a presidential hopeful, they may lose me forever. I am a liberal, economically ok feminist. I miss al franken; I abhor KG and her self righteous metoo's.
Let'e keep up appearances. Let's vote like we are interested in how the country works, even when it doesn't work for most of us.
The right has carried us to the bring of fascism and we're still deciding which part to vote for. Really?
I despair. But that is easily fixed. Make America Great Again.
Vote.
16
The only red states Democrats should be optimistic about flipping is TN and AZ. Bredesen is a very strong candidate and AZ is trending more and more blue. NV is all but guaranteed to go solidly blue.
FL seems to be the only sure fire GOP pick up and TX is a lost cause for Democrats. As for the rest of those red states dems, I wouldn't be too worried if I were them.
1
Frank, you are so on the money! Having spent months and hours reading all I can on the various Senate races, I am very hopeful that the Democrats can take back the Senate. Arizona, Tennessee, Nevada are all winnable. Menendez, should have stepped aside for a younger (sorry, sometimes it is just time to pack it in), cleaner candidate with no history, but he will probably pull it out; Nelson in Florida needs to step up his game. Too many new voters there simply do not know who he is and Scott plays dirty. Missouri makes me nervous and Clare may lose, but Manchin, Tester, Heidi, will hold on. And, Texas-well, won't it be great to see Cruz disappear! Keep the hope alive folks and just vote, vote, vote!
10
Thankfully Phil Bredesen has his big boy pants on, unlike others who rely on mud slinging, tribalism and divisiveness.
His leadership and his civility (anybody remember civility?) are most refreshing and welcome.
Thanks for running, Governor Bredesen! I know it would have been so much easier to stay out of the fray, especially now. You’ve got my vote.
11
I have no doubt the Trump cult is going to vote in force. I question weather Democrats and Independents who represent the majority in this country will vote in force during a mid-term election.
The damage that has been done in less than 2 years is almost unimaginable.
A blue wave might well check this evil kleptocracy. We have to take back our country. If not now, when?
19
Phil Bredesen was a highly successful businessman, a successful mayor of Nashville, and a successful two term Governor. He inherited a mess as Governor and cleaned it up without raising taxes. In very Republican Tennessee he won every county in the state when he ran for re-election.
It will be very hard for Republicans to define him with negative media ads because most voters from their late 20’s on know exactly who he is, what he stands for and what he accomplished.
The last thing America needs is Marsha Blackburn in the Senate, but it could use Mr Bredesen.
8
My support for President Trump basically stems from the fact the he is not Hillary Rodham Clinton, and by that I mean, his politics are not hers; I abhor her politics. I don’t believe the nation needs to go in that direction, a direction in which the nation nudged under Obama, and could still possibly pursue if the Social Democrats prevail. For that reason I will vote for Marsha Blackburn in November. For me, however, Phil Bredesen is an acceptable Democrat; he reminds me of the Democrats of the late 20th century, before Al Gore started doing the Macarena and paying Naomi Wolf $15,000 per month to advise him on which earth-tone colored shirts to wear. In fact Gore was once that kind of Democrat before he became so self-righteous, so sanctimonious. At any other time I would consider voting for Bredesen, but now is not that time, because the work accomplished so far by President Trump, especially in reshaping the courts, must continue. For the sanity of the Republic, the majority of the Senate must remain Republican. Thank you.
6
I simply can't read these projections of who will win what anymore. And I plead with the media, please don't start publishing the results of polls. I shut my eyes and close my ears to all of it. There's no telling at this point what will happen and if we haven't learned that lesson after 2016 then there's no hope. Just get out there, knock on doors and make phone calls. Above all, vote!!
11
It is heartening to see that the Democratic Party has perhaps realized it needs to take a new tack if it wants to make significant gains in the House and Senate this year as well as in years to come. For a while we blamed the Republican Party for its various litmus tests for office; then we developed some of our own and paid for them dearly.
Let's hope more voters than not have come to see that there is a better way to run this country than the one Trump and his quisling Republicans have to offer.
4
We need to remember that some Trump voters in these States mentioned, were not Trump fans. They voted for what they thought was the lesser of two evils. And some of those Trump voters were Democrats.
Democrats need to get out younger voters and minorities as well, in every State.
I feel cautiously optimistic. Finally.
6
Democrats cannot give up on any office. Republicans should not be without opposition. Anywhere. And yes, candidate quality matters.
Who’s running against Jim Jordan. That person should have a chance given Jordan’s abusive answers to sexual abuse problems while he was a coach.
The Republican Party is no longer the party of suburban America and small towns. It’s the national insanity party pushing the agenda of Koch funded Radical Right wing groups- the Libertarians, Cato, Grover Norquist, The tax foundation, Super PAC after Super PAC.
Republican justices comeback from the Koch-funded Federalist Society which stirs people up over emotional issues like restricting women’s rights but with a subtext of pushing forward extremist economic “liberty” - making the U.S. safe for Oligarch abuses.
11
@jmc
Retired teacher and union leader Janet Garret is Jordan's opponent.
https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/janetgarrett2018
2
Just cast my vote for Danny O'Connor in the 12th district of Ohio, a very important special election to replace Pat Tiberi. As of yesterday he was leading by one percentage point. Even one vote can change the outcome, so I encourage everyone to pay attention to this very relavant election.
20
I surely hope that the DNC will be making a special effort vis a vis millennials. Those school shootings weren't that far in the past after all, and anyone who's concerned about the power of the NRA shouldn't be voting Republican.
23
The real problem is if the Democrats get power in the House or Senate, will they finally act like Democrats and fight for the middle class. Or will they turn into Republican-light, and immediately start telling everyone what they can't do to help. I've already given up on the Senate, I know that the Democrats won't do anything to help anyone with less than $1 Million in the bank, but will do everything to help their donors. That is the real problem, I'm just as angry with corporate sellout Democrats as I am with Republicans. Maybe the Democrats should fix that problem first before taking power, and further embarrassing themselves with weak half measures that go nowhere.
5
@Mike
My father served in the Navy during WWII. During that time, he served with British sailors and officers. He found them to be stuffy; ridiculously focused on protocol; and arrogant. Did he tell them to "fix those problems first" and then the Yanks could work with them? No he did not, because he knew there was a bigger enemy who needed to be stopped. The GOP agenda is putting corporate loving judges in our courts as fast as possible. If you want any chance at fighting an oligarchical take over of our government, you better vote Republicans out, even if that means, oh stink, voting for Democrats. Even if Democrats did nothing but block judicial appointments, it would serve your agenda far better than what you face now.
9
The bigger the win for the Democrats in November, the harder it will be to remove Trump in 2020. If Democrats control the Congress, he will be able to effectively run against "Washington". Democrats are most likely to end up with a small majority in the House, and a small minority in the Senate. That's probably best for the country, as the highest priority must remain removal of Trump in 2020.
6
This is the most realistic comment that I have read in this entire thread!
2
No. Focusing on the presidency is a large part of what got us into this mess. We need Democratic control of the Senate, the House, state legislatures and governorships. That means voting Democrat every two years, not every four.
13
“The party’s problem — a huge one — is that 10 of its incumbents are in states that voted for Trump.”
Wrong, Mr. Bruno. The party’s problem is that it has no solutions to today’s problems and lies about its own record of failure.The Democrats still claim that this is Obama’s economy, but they’re not fooling anybody. In Obama’s best quarter the economy grew by 4.3%, but then in his last two years it tanked. He tried to pass it off as the new normal. but now miraculously it has gone back up under Trump. It would be one thing if Trump had followed Obama’s same economic policies of tax and spend. Then one could perhaps still credit Obama, but he didn’t do that but totally reversed Obama’s economic policies. If Obama was right, then the economy should have tanked under Trump but instead it soared with new found optimism as America went back to work again. Remember Obama saying those jobs weren’t coming back? Not under his policies anyway. The Democrats can try to obfuscate the issues and try to take credit for Trump’s successes when their own failed, but the electorate is smarter than they think.
6
What do you mean 'tanked'? it was still growing, just slow. And under Trump, so far growth of 4% was also only one quarter, why should we think that Trump's policies are better than Obama's?
21
Perhaps you think that shipping our factory jobs out to third world sweatshops and bringing in foreigners on work visas helped the economy. One has to give Obama credit, however, for taking the cyclical upturn that follows every downturn and stopping it dead in its tracks. His policies did work alright.
5
Trump and the Republicans did exactly what the past three Republican presidents have done: cut taxes for the wealthiest Americans and for corporations and slashed regulations. And in each case--under Reagan, H.W. Bush, and W. Bush--their cuts became more extreme, and they all left office with a bigger mess. The result of all three Republican presidents (except for H.W., who never had a good economy) was a few years of growth where the markets soared then crashed, leading to bigger and bigger recessions and massive debt.
Compare that to the last two Democratic presidents who left with some of the longest periods of continuous growth in U.S. history and much smaller debt. Clinton had a surplus and Obama cut the deficit by 2/3, which Republicans claimed would be impossible.
W.'s cuts and debt led to the Great Recession, and Trump made bigger cuts and took on larger debt. So if history gives is any indication, expect, after a couple of years, another massive economic crisis, which will be difficult to combat with so much debt and few options.
So basically, economic growth under Democrats has been much longer with much milder recessions and debt, though is admittedly not as fast or sexy. Republicans have yielded shorter, faster growth that leads to a more volatile market (as we're seeing) and leaves us with huge debt, massive unemployment, and a long recession. I don't know why voters fall for the same Republican ideology over and over. It never benefits the average person.
11
the republican are only defending 6 seats in senate and the democrats over 25 senate seats. so the the democrats can loses seats easier then republicans. that's just by numbers no polls needed.
2
The Hillary Clinton branch of the Democratic Party is still sitting on its hands. These boobs have not learned their lesson. Where is mainstream Dem support in current elections in Ohio and Michigan?...only Bernie shows up in Michigan and Ohio is forgotten.
4
After years of fawning over presidential candidates like George W. “I’m an Idiot Looking for a Village” Bush, Brunei is finally (hopefully) where he needs to be: trying to get voters to turn out for Democratic candidates wherever possible this November. Thanks, Frank, for belatedly showing up on the right side of history.
5
This nation is bitterly divided but there are two things we can all agree on: dogs and a queasy distaste for Ted Cruz.
6
Marsha, Marsha, Marsha. Marsha Brady, um, Blackburn is a Stepford/Jesus wife Candidate. A long term Congressperson with very little accomplishments OR principles, except self promotion. Watch her carefully on the “ news “ shows. She NEVER answers the questions asked, but veers directly into her shopworn and nonsensical talking points. A decent actress, but hardly a serious thinker. You can do better, Tennessee. You MUST do better. Serious times call for serious people, not dilettantes and more reality TV personalities. ENOUGH.
11
"Fasten your seat belts," snarls Bette David in some old film, "'cause it's gonna be a BUMPY NIGHT. . ."
That, I expect, will be eminently true of election night in November.
Oh Mr. Bruni! I do hope you're right.
But my fears are stronger than my hopes.
People talk as if a Democratic takeover of the House is a sure thing. Or ALMOST a sure thing. Or (at any rate) an eminently POSSIBLE thing.
How I pray to see it! But here again--my fears are stronger than my hopes.
Retiring Senator Corker put if with horrifying clarity.
Allegiance to Mr. Trump nowadays is a TRIBAL thing. Make no mistake! This guy's got LOADS of support. Those fanatical followers--they'll be circling the wagons.
"The wicked DEMOCRATS!" they'll be shrilling--they already ARE shrilling, "They gonna impeach our MAN--our HERO--our CHAMPION. . . . ."
(Please notice, New York Times: I refrain from using a German word that means "leader.')
And they'll gather round. The base'll gather round.
Big-time.
Will sanity prevail? Will it?
I have a good friend--an older man--who got talking about Mr. Trump last fall:
"I voted for him," he said. "I hoped he'd make a real difference. Bring about some change. . ..
"But now, I'm simply disgusted. . . ."
You notice, of course, how inextricably the Republican cause is BOUND--hand and foot--to our President's cause.
And that gives grounds for some hope--oh yes, it does.
It also gives grounds for some fear.
Lots of fear.
2
Frank, you are so right about the senate. The justices being appointed by this 'haircut' of a president and the GOP are dangerous to the future of democracy.
15
“...Recent polls have shown that in congressional races, voters prefer a generic Democrat to a generic Republican by six to 10 points...
Yeah – and if only evil gerrymandering could be smitten, this preference would be more justly and fairly and equitably reflected in outcomes...
But the numbers just don’t add up, Frank – and it goes like this...
> Two-thirds of state governors are GOP – and not a mandering gerry in sight
> Of the third that’re Dems, less than half had held only legislative jobs prior to governing...One quarter of Dem governors had been Attorneys General, and one quarter had had a leadership state or party finance job...Couple of mayors in the mix
This simple...Politics in the US has been dumbed down to two main agenda items:
> Social justice and equality
> Economic growth and prosperity
At the state level – social justice and equality are highly-valued, while economic growth and prosperity are essential...
So, the recent tilt to the GOP...
At the national level, things gone completely off the rails...
Both parties spend massive amounts of money – beyond even what the rich could pay...
In quest of entrenched incumbency...
If NYS is any guidepost, the entrenchment will sclerotize beyond individual incumbents – to where the Dems hold the House while the GOP keeps the Senate, long-term...
So – let’s see how the governor’s races go...
A tie-breaker of sorts...
If the Ds want to take back the Senate, they need to denounce Sanders and Clinton as the biggest thieves and liars ever - and deliver something that will encourage Americans to vote for a party that is seen as being just Left of Marx.
Capitalism generates jobs and wealth - history demonstrates this. Socialism generates misery and death - history demonstrates this, repeatedly. If the Ds want to change the flavor of the Senate, they need to exorcise their party and excise the Socialist cancer that is rising in their ranks.
7
They no doubt will do that just right after Reps en masse denounce Trump who was publicly proven to be a liar and a thief. And if capitalism so great, why so many Americans are not satisfied with it? Why do they think their salary is too small, their healthcare bill is too big, and education is way too expensive. They look American socialist program as SS and Medicare, and they like it. They look at the Western European, and they also like their socialist program.
5
@KarlosTJ
Please give us your fantasy history lessons. What specific lies are spread by Sanders and Clinton? I can give you about 4000 by trump and how does community ownership represent misery? We have seen how capitalism has stripped 3rd world countries of wealth for the sake of American corporations so please give of your version of history.
9
If Dems just stick to bread and butter issues...healthcare coverage, student loan debt, safeguarding retirement funds and protecting clean water and air regulations, they can win.
Stop talking about Immigration and impeaching Trump.
23
Laziness and infighting elected Trump. Can we all not agree that a centrist is better than Twitler? GOTV! Don't go alone. Pick a friend and take them with you. Then, go find someone who didn't vote and take them too.
Vote like your life depends on it, because, it very well may.
4
Do not discount the fact that at least a portion of the Obama voters who defected to Trump in 2016 can be lured back to the Democrats when they feel betrayed by some of his broken campaign promises and are increasingly disgusted by his flawed character defects. Let's target those swing suburban white women in consequential races to at least get Dems firmly in the "purple" zone for the fight back to Obama "blue" in both the Senate and House.
5
Yesterday I saw a photo from a Trump rally in Ohio. The rally occurred last weekend. Two older men were featured. Both were wearing T-shirts that read..."I'd Rather be Russian than Democrat". At the same rally Trump stated..."The media is the enemy of the People". Last month three Russian journalist who had expressed opposition to Putin were murdered.
16
Being involved in grassroots the energy is there and people will be voting today and making their voices heard. We cant change the insanity in this country if we don't vote. We will be in the streets tonight supporting our candidates. The end of crazy is near, by the way where are those missing children? How many are still in cages? We thank the GOP for their daily activities displaying how they hate the American people . Enjoy the GOP tax cuts and your love for recreating the horrors of World War Two.
Maybe the swamp administration had gone to real schools vs elite ones that would know how the depression and World War Two came about they wouldn't be running to implement failed policies We hope tonight shows results that we will carry to November and win. No one wants another depression we had one in 2008
3
So nice to see an ASTUTE analysis of what’s going on in the Senate races.
I think way too many folks forget a couple of basic political cliches: 1) all politics are local; and 2) people vote with their wallets. Now while those cliches generally would be most applicable to the House races, I believe they also apply, perhaps to a lesser extent to the Senate.
What hangs over the mid-terms is the specter of the 2,000 lb. orangutan (sorry, I couldn’t resist) in the room. Trump obviously took over the GOP by appealing to its base, a certain % of who would vote GOP even if the candidate was an alien from another world. Senate Republicans (not confined to those up for election) have supported Trump’s policies, with some mild rebukes to his style of governance - I don’t think that will work in this election, for one thing because there’s a September/October sur[prise coming in the form of the Mueller probe and the certainty that there will be additional indictments announced.
3
Focus all campaign contributions on get out the vote efforts, in key districts.
Support Michelle Obama in her get out the vote campaign.
Our greatest power is in the vote.
We must also ensure that we have free and fair elections. We must pay attention and show up and participate.
11
The DNC needs to realize that Arizona is willing to vote for Democrats, but there must be more resources and focus on the state. Hillary Clinton lost Arizona by only four percentage points, and she barely campaigned there. It's time to make Arizona blue.
22
What matters to me is passion in a candidate. A very passionate moderate Democrat can do just as well as one more economically or socially liberal on some positions. Also the passion that the progressive wing of the Democratic Party has will also bring wonderful gifts to the table. That will only be true if Democrats have a majority in the House and Senate. Democrats need to fight to get things done not with each other.
3
I share your hope but the wave will have to be big because there are 2 big hurdles to overcome.
1. Voter suppression - republicans are suppressing millions of votes.
2. Gerrymandering
7
It would be somewhat helpful if the Democrat party would field some good candidates, those not necessarily chosen by a "leader" to enhance his own power. I think, for example, of the last Pennsylvania election where Pat Toomey won reelection because Ed Rendell picked Katie McGinty and spurned Sestak.
2
What the Democrats are running on other than regain power. Hillary's main proclamations was, "Now it's my turn."Trumps response was to point to the crowds and say, "Now it's your turn." While the Democrats are shouting, "Now it is our turn," Trump will say to the people "I told you it was your turn. They can run on the economy. It's growing at 4.1% The unemployment is at the lowest in decades, 3.8- 4.0 % For African Americans, their youth, and Hispanics, the lowest ever. For those with disabilities, the employment rate that had been falling before Trump, is now up 7-11%. A recent NYT headline said, "Workers Hardest Hit by Recession Are Joining in Recovery." Wages are rising. Trump is trying to bring about peace and a nuke free Korea. He said about his meeting With Kim Jung Un, "If I have to say I’m sitting on a stage with Chairman Kim and that gets us to save 30 million lives, ...I'm willing to sit on the stage." When was the last time we heard our president say something like that? Never. Europe is now promising to reduce trade and tariff discrepancies. Trump will continue working on trade. So, will "Now it's our turn," work his time.Poles are poles. It is not long ago that the day before the voting, the poles were saying that there was no way a former president's wife, former U.S. Senator, former Secretary of State, could lose not just the presidency, but both houses of congress, to a bombastic, self promoting, reality show host.
2
The American people are not as stupid as you suggest, Ron. They know that at least three quarters of the progress downward of the unemployment rate came down under Obama and the only improvements in health care came because of Democrats. Democrats have shown up much stronger in primaries up 86% compared to 2014 while Republican turnout is up only 23%.
You can make a difference by assisting your elderly or disabled neighbors to vote absentee or escort them to the polls so they can vote in person. Citizens over age 65 or physician certified as permanently disabled can vote absentee.
11
@Maureen anyone can vote absentee by mail if they think they will not be able to go to polls in person. Age and health condition is irrelevant when comes to getting a absentee ballot. Anyone can request an absentee ballot as long as you meet standard of being eligible to vote.
3
It is my belief that Mitch McConnell will do whatever it take to hold onto the Senate. He will steal it if he has to. He sold his soul when he became Speaker, and will assure power at all costs. I know this sounds apocalyptic, but I find him to be selfish beyond all bounds, stating his greatness achievement to be the stealing of Obama’s Supreme Court seat.
12
The general revulsion with Trump and his immorality has not been enough to turn Republicans away from him; Dems cannot count on anti-Trump sentiment to bring victory. So, it really depends on the policies that Democrats favor, and their leadership abilities. Unfortunately, Dems have focused mainly on immigration. Pelosi shut the government down for 3 days last year in an attempt to support legal status for "Dreamers" and more recently, some Dems have proposed abolishing ICE. Anyone opposed to Open Border policies has been called "nativist" and "racist" simply for believing that immigration should proceed according to the legal procedures that our nation already has in place. Unless Dems pivot to economic issues (growing wealth inequality) and social support (health care, education), they appear poised to once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
4
@Unconventional Liberal Pelosi did not shut down the government. She doesn't have the power to shut it down. Right now only Trump and the republicans can shut it down. Almost no one believe in open borders. You are watching way too much fox.
13
@Unconventional Liberal
You hit the nail on the head!
Dems need to focus on: "growing wealth inequality, health care, education"
And two more...protecting retirement programs and clean air/water regulations.
Do not touch Immigration.
1
The Dems can take the Senate with a message that they support the working class .
15
As a die hard Democrat, I want to be optimistic. But the reality does not allow me to hope for the best. First of all the Democratic Party does not have any organization to do even the ground work in the south. The voters are in the south are genetically Republican. They have been voting against their interest for decades. I am writing off the south for the Democratic Party. Then the liberals are too lazy to vote. Lot of them are PURIST and they could not vote for Hillary against Trump. Lot of them waste their vote by voting for the Green Party. The main job of the Green party is to elect the Republicans by draining liberal votes. The Republican Party is united and regimented. The Democratic Party is divided and moving to extreme left, where as most of the voters are at the center. Only with the base, the party can not win majority. The litmus test for the Democratic Party candidates is the key to loose. Only one aim of the party should be "winning".
1
Frank,
I love you, but I'm afraid the Democratic pundits are once again underestimating Trump.He is campaigning for Republican
incumbents, and has been successful in bringing his base together, using his favorite weapons, Fear, Hatred, & intolerance
which ,he uses to divide & conquer., He is far from dead,as long
as the economy is strong & unemployment is down.
3
@Joe Blow
That may be true. But Trump and his followers are STILL not in the majority, and a 42% approval rating amongst them still doesn't account for half of the electorate.
As for the strong economy -- just wait until those tariffs kick in, you just might be singing a different tune.
4
@N. Smith
I agree, the Tariffs will be Trump's undoing, but it will not turn on Trump before the Mid Term Elections.
This piece is in itself a depressing commentary on the state of politics in our country. You could have moved this article to the NYT Sports section and switched out the media outlets, sources and "players" mentioned with ESPN, Vegas oddsmakers and athletes whose performances could carry their team to a championship. Politics has become pure sport. I know many will argue that it's always been this way, but it's becoming more and more appallingly apparent. We need leaders, not performers or brand builders.
3
The enthusiasm about House elections will naturally carry over to votes for Senate races.
A good slogan might be "Show up for the House and we'll take the Senate."
If local House races stimulate interest and turnout efforts are solid, the Senate comes along for the ride.
But, don't just wish for it.
I'll spend a few hours a week starting in September making calls to get out the vote.
I'd like you to do the same.
Just search your Democratic headquarters or local House member and call them - then show up.
Super easy, fun.
Man, will we feel good on election night!
6
@Paul King: I like your post and attitude. I think you're right in asserting that voters for representatives are unlikely to ignore Senate candidates.
I would like to help. What would you suggest to someone who is unable to speak aubly or clearly, however? You've made a good suggestion for the voice-abled. Do you have one for those who aren't?
1
Thanks for this uplifting column, Frank.
The single most important thing every American can do this year is vote.
And continue to vote in every election: local, state, and federal. Midterms are just as important as presidential elections. Democrats have to be more involved. We can't trust the Republican party (not that we ever could.)
12
To the Dems who are running: Stick to the issues, promote voting rights, American rights, love of country, diversity and how it has made us who we are, education, safety, praise teachers and law enforcement and firefighters, mention protecting our public lands and our air and water, talk about the unique friendship with allies and how that works in our favor, speak inclusively so that all of your constituents feel appreciated and understood.
6
@Nancie
That's not going to get me on board. What will - talk about healthcare, jobs, wages, housing.
1
@rtj
I agree, rtj! Those were coming...but the dog needed a walk...truly! Thanks for mentioning those best ideas!
There might be some Republican incumbents in the U.S. Senate who might go down. Cruz would be a real surprise. I think everyone needs to remember: Hillary Clinton is not on the ballot. So many of Trump's votes were not cast in favor of him, but against Mrs. Clinton. Look how unpopular currently Trump is. I do see some real surprises coming in the U.S. Senate races. Democrats must win the Senate to stop Trump's judicial appointments. Mitch will be defeated in 2020--KY is so tired of him and Gov. Matt Bevin will most likely challenge McConnell! Slowly but surely, the purging of these noxious candidates will occur at the ballot box.
3
Nice rundown on what's going on in the other states. By and large that's something many of us here in New York City don't tend to focus on, mainly because most of us didn't think twice about not voting for Donald Trump and his agenda, even though he's from here.
As far as the Senate elections are concerned, there's every reason to keep the hope of wrestling control from the Republicans alive, thanks to Trump, whose miscalculated steps are the gift that keeps on givng.
Americans, don't forget who is the in the majority... VOTE!
22
Frank - THANK YOU! Let's all remain positive, work hard to GOTV, vote straight DEM on the ballot, make the Tweeter in the WH eat his words, and take back our government. The pendulum needs to swing in the opposite direction, and now may be our last chance to make that happen.
22
It's great to see Democrats closing the gap in Republican-voting areas. But I'm not completely convinced that the polls are the things we can't trust. Maybe it's the vote tallying in certain states that's the real problem.
It seems that close elections may provide cover for in-house skewing of the results. We have examples of irregularities from 2016 in Michigan, where a recount was stopped and in Georgia, where computerized results were destroyed immediately after the election.
Voter interference by Russian garners most of the news. I'd like to see more investigations into the problems we might face from voting results tampered with by Republican insiders.
In many of the mid-term elections, Democrats have to turn out in overwhelming numbers to achieve the desired results.
11
I disagree that the Senate is more important than the House, because the House needs to vote on impeachment. I doubt many Republicans would risk being stuck in no man's land by voting for impeachment only to have the Senate fails to convict. Once the Senate begins a hearing, however, party affiliation may be less influential.
Red and purple state Democrats in the Senate cannot block confirmations indefinitely. The nation can live with a conservative Supreme Court for a while, and the damage is mostly done there anyway. What we may not be able to live with is another two years of President Trump.
5
@Alan
What do you think President Pence will do differently if Trump is impeached?
1
Trump is our fake president, but he is not our major problem; Republicans in the House and Senate are. If there is any chance of turning this around, it needs to be done in November. We must pull the power from the likes of McConnell, and Ryan and begin the reshaping of the damage that has been done to our country. McConnell will always play to win regardless of the long term consequences. He is not to be trusted any more than we now trust Trump. Ryan is on the way out but someone worse is waiting in the wings. Trump could have never lasted this long, if it were not for these players. So if we are to stop Trump for good, we need to get these members of the real swamp out. The rest of the Republican members of Congress will fall as they should. Just vote!
16
I am all for Democrat victories, but there is something appalling
about all the money that is being thrown around here. This is not about democracy, but rather is the basis of corruption and lobbying, etc. How sad, as they say!
1
If there ever were a time when campaign strategists on the left needed to show they had the chops to counteract every above and below board tactic of their counterparts on the right, this is it.
"When they go low, we go high" is no longer an acceptable mantra for Democratic candidates, whose past embrace of a higher standard of ethical and moral stands has landed us in our present predicament. If they go into the mud, we have learn to mud-wrestle.
5
I suspect that the Russians will do their best to assure a Republican majority in the Senate (and House).
7
Frank, keep up the optimism! It is vital that those of us who are not only repulsed by the Trump presidency, but equally the GOP's willingness to walk in lock-step with the outrageous damage his rhetoric is causing to un-Unite our United States, be reminded that we the people are better when we are united in cause than when we are lied to and divided.
Hope is empowering and while some might suggest that over confidence will keep voters at home, I suggest that confidence in knowing your one vote will count, will make voters more likely to get off the couch and endure whatever pains they have to cast their vote.
I am an optimist and yes, I have faith in the common sense that most Americans share. Optimism is in fact a characteristic unique to our nation dating back to the revolution. Without a conviction that we could unite to defeat the British, or for that matter the Nazis or the Soviet Union, Americans would never have endured the pain that is endured when overcoming evil. And yes, in my opinion, Trump and his methods are evil.
Keep up the positive attitude. It is very much a gesture of Patriotism.
9
If the Dems retake the Senate they should invoke the McConnell rule with regard to considering and voting on any potential SCOTUS nominees between January 2019 and January 2021.
Expanding the time parameters of the rule by a year would be reasonable given McConnel’s theft of Garland’s seat in the first place.
25
On a recent trip to Tennessee I saw a ton of Bredesen ads but none by Blackburn who just seems to have started this week. It seems that she grates on a lot of people personally which is reflected in her low likability ratings.
8
Democrats should not give up, give in, or be apathetic. Dems must vote often and early as the old saying goes. We must fight the fire and fury of demagogues with an equal or more powerful force than they. President Obama was too good a man. What this nation needs now is an FDR or LBJ, arm-twisting cajolers who will not take "no" from their more conservative members. We know what this country needs and that is someone willing to go toe to toe nose to nose and knock these Republicans so hard on their be-hinds it'll be decades before they get off the floor. There is but one choice this and every November: the Democratic candidate, even if it be a Yellow Dog.
DD
Manhattan
23
The key in all of these Senate races is the independent voter. It's important not to get distracted by the performance of candidates in their primaries, or to put too much emphasis on party allegiance in the general election. Both reflect the strict party alliance of registered Democrat and Republican voters.
It's the independent voters --- a group larger than either party's registered voters --- that will make the difference. Most voters who identify as "independent" actually lean toward one party or the other, but are put off by the nature of partisan politics. This can result in them either withholding their vote, or making a protest vote for a 3rd party candidate.
If we can count, with certainty, on Dems voting blue and Republicans voting red, then it is critical that the Democrat party put forth candidates that will motivate the independents to move in the direction of their political leaning. This is where we'll get the biggest bang for the buck, not by trying to convince embarrassed Republicans that they need to vote for Democratic candidates.
I get a little nervous when I hear Democratic candidates saying they'll support Trump policies when it's good for their state. This might be an honest stance, but at this point we need energy directed at independent voters. If we can get them to the polls, the Dems have a very good chance of taking both houses.
5
@Jim: I like your post and agree with what you wrote.
Just one tiny detail, though: It's the "Democratic Party", not the "Democrat party." The latter term is a pejorative used almost exclusively by Republicans who can't abide the thought that Democrats -- the proper term for Democratic Party members -- might be democratic.
2
An interesting statistic concerning the Texas race is that, according to recent polling, about 40% of Texas voters either don't know who Beto O'Rourke is or don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Yet Beto is within striking distance of defeating Cruz. This is not a good sign for the Cruz campaign.
11
@EN
Beto for Senate sign in my front yard!
Team Beto plans to win this November.
Lots of us are supporting BETO!
5
So maybe he really isn't within striking distance.
2
I think if democratic Congressional candidates keep pounding on the healthcare issue, and other issues that pertain to their particular districts/states, they will be successful. In all of the run-offs and special elections in the last year, that seems to have gained them the most traction.
It probably wouldn't hurt to keep reminding voters about last year's tax 'reform' giveaway to the 1% either. Republican candidates seem to be running away from that issue at a full-on sprint this year.
6
I couldn't agree more, Mr. Bruni. As a never say die liberal Dem (universal health care, anyone?), I don't see any reason not to run all out in every race. For one thing, win or lose, it energizes the voters who, let's face it, when it comes to Dems, need a jump start for 2020. Plus, despite the talking point the GOP are peddling -- "what IS the Democrats' message?" -- these candidates are delivering coherent, detailed proposals for actually helping the people that Trump et al promised they'd "take care of", sometimes with vague platitudes and sometimes with absurd claims that anyone who thinks or reads or knows anything about anything would know were impossible to deliver on (better health care that covers more, with no pre-existing condition exclusions and no mandates for less money -- and if you believe that, I have an office tower to sell you at 666 Park Ave.). So, while the Dems need to hone their messages broadly -- take a page out of the GOP playbook, and communicate their proposals, plans and policies consistently (like those Sinclair Broadcasting messages delivered to anchors to read in every market) -- there is, indeed, hope for the Senate, too. If we play this right. This time, as if our lives depend on it. Because they likely do. And at a minimum, our democracy depends on it.
2
My despair is that the Democrats do not have a message to inspire voters. Something to elevate the spirits and to show those left behind that there is hope for them.
2
I'm glad the Dems are optimistic. Really I am. But they have no chance to pick up the Senate, and I'm pretty certain that by mid-October the experts will tell us even winning the House is a long shot.
6
It’s pretty simple: if the Dems want to take back the Senate, then it is critical that the effort be focused on getting out the vote. They need to be aggressively canvassing voters who lean to the left, but typically only come out for presidential years.
Apathy is the problem. Beat apathy, and the Dems can win easily. But if people stay home or otherwise can’t be bothered, the Dems lose.
480
@Bill Seng This sums it up nicely. Its about getting out the vote and fighting apathy.
8
@Bill Seng
Turnout is the key. The Senate vote is not effected by gerrymandering.
3
@Bill Seng
"It’s pretty simple: if the Dems want to take back the Senate, then it is critical that the effort be focused on getting out the vote."
That's right, turnout is key. No turnout, no win. Policy is Always secondary to turnout.
But you need a much better slogan than, "For the People," or the old slogan, "A Better Way," thought up by sclerotic 80-year-old Democrat leaders.
Something with risk. If there's no risk of losing, then you don't deserve to win. Risk is emotional.
Risk is what ensures turnout.
Like, "Lock 'Em Up!" - but on a blue hat. Every Senate seat would be won with that slogan.
Many Democrats who regularly donate money to Democratic candidates are puzzled at the willingness of Democratic Party officials and liberal pundits to write off particular races as ‘lost causes’ and to leave Democratic candidates in those races dangling.
Beyond discouraging eager Democrats from entering races in the future, withholding funds has the very real effect of making a sizeable donation to the Republican incumbent. Such surrender also frees up money for the G.O.P. to use in races around the country.
274
@sdw
"withholding funds has the very real effect of making a sizeable donation to the Republican incumbent"
They would "withhold" less if they had more to give.
You and I may disagree with their strategy (I often do), but they do have to decide where to place the limited funds they have.
The more we donate, either to the DNC, DCCC, DGA, DLCC, DSCC, or, exercising our own judgement, to specific candidates in specific races, the more effective they can be.
1
@sdw Thank you sdw — The DNC has to be reconfigured, for decades now it has been nothing more than a powerful lobbying tool of the center Democratic establishment. You know, the rich and powerful Dems who have sold out working Americans for decades. Dear voters, you have to drop the illusion that the status quo elected officials have the sand to work on your behalf and turn their backs on the donor class. These are the people who have lost us a thousand elections and have sold us out repeatedly.
@sdw If you spend money in one particular race then you can't spend it in another. Pretty simple. You have to make choices. Yes the Democrats could spread the money all around but that might mean losing some very winnable races because they spent money on long-shots. What sense would that make? The specific choices can always be debated and mistakes will always be made but your blanket denunciation appears somewhat delusional. Got any specific examples you'd like to share? Your opinion is based on specific instances, isn't it?
It's the Economy stupid! Signs of recession are everywhere. Housing sales and starts are slowing, price of gasoline rising, rising interest rates. weather hurting business, inverted curve on the horizon because of interest rate hike, and then there is the tariffs.
Or if you prefer, the Mueller re[port. There is little doubt about collusion. The Trump Tower meeting and the NRA money laundering.
Either one could make the blue wave a tsunami.
17
@tom
I must have missed those signs of recession with the unemployment t rate at 3.9, the Dow at 25,500, corporate earnings are up, consumer confidence is up.
In this case, rising interest rates are a sign of the health of the economy.
3
@G: You are obviously speaking from a wealthy position that the economy is healthy - because 90% of the workers are not feeling like you do. And once those tariffs really hit, even more people will be unhappy, don'tcha know.
The good thing about Democracy is that it self corrects . Yes , we did elect a totally unfit man as President . But soon the voters will go to the polls and they will elect a new Congress . If the blue wave materializes , it could mean impeachment . If on the contrary , Trump finishes his first term , he will lose his bet for a second term after 4 years of disaster . There is also the possibility that his erratic and unhinged behavior will make the members of his cabinet invoke the 25th Amendment of the Constitution . As Churchill said , " Americans can always be counted to do the right thing after they have exhausted all other possibilities " . Don`t bet against America yet .
304
@Bernardo Izaguirre MD Just as a reminder...in regards to "we did elect" - Hillary Clinton got over 2.9 million more votes than trump. It was the antiquated electoral college - giving rural states a voice - that got Trump elected.
13
@Bernardo Izaguirre MD ' he will lose his bet for a second term after 4 years of disaster ' - I would wager a can of coca cola that he will win reelection.
Why? because of people who sat things like ' If the blue wave materializes'.
Visit the country. Outside of main large cities, this is Trump Country. And that is what the pundits miss, the Dems cannot win the race by only having main cities vote blue. And a 'blue wave' is as real as fairy dust. Come out of your bubble and go look for yourself.
@Bernardo Izaguirre MD Yes, that stern, 'fatherly' face yelling "You're fired . . .' on reality TV has lost its shine. I think our feet are finally back touching earth, and now the fear of being buried deep in the earth becomes more reality than the 'trump'et's blare.
2
While lacking any empirical data to substantiate this "gut feeling", I anticipate the fall elections will be decided largely by the capacity of each party to mobilize women - they will be the key to which ever party prevails.
16
Yes. Not only the House but the Senate can be won. All the pundits seem to forget that Trump won the Electoral College by fewer than 80,000 votes in three rust belt states. As the Economist pointed out recently, there is good reason to doubt that Trump would have won without Putin's help. All the Russians had to do was swing .003% of the vote in his favor. Many of those 80,000 voters -- women, minorities, farmers and business owners hurt by his tariffs -- have since turned against Trump and his followers in Congress. And the same can be said of many voters in many other states. Thus, while Trump's endorsements are helping his candidates win primaries, they are sure to lose in the general.
20
@Christy
You're exactly right, but the Kremlin didn't need to *switch* .003% of the vote of in his favor, all they had to do was get that percentage of probable Clinton voters to either stay home or vote for Stein. That's what most people don't grasp. It's 100x easier to get a voter to stay home than it is to get them to change their vote. That's why seasoned campaign managers of both parties are always talking about 'getting out the base'. If your voters don't show up, you lose.
3
The Russians did nothing . Clinton and Comey were the difference.
1
I am torn...I want to be optimistic. I am 71 and the country is in the worst state it has been since I began to vote at 21...and that includes the Watergate and the Recession. However, I fear that if we trust too much in polls, we may be blindsided once again. Remember that Hillary was winning on Election Night until she wasn't, and the Russians are still in nibbling at the cheese. If you love America, you will do anything you can to get the GOP out of power....if you hate Democrats, you can vote GOP after they get their act back together. But right now, we need a sweep of the House and Senate to truly drain the swamp and put the Executive Office back in check.
802
@Mountain Dragonfly Here's a Michigan swamper who completely agrees with you. (even though I'm older)
1
@Mountain Dragonfly Or, preferably, checkmate.
The Republicans worked day and night for eight years to try destroy the presidency of Obama. They deserve nothing less in return, especially since they hitched their wagons to an out of control, unqualified egomaniacal real estate and brand promoter.
3
@Mountain Dragonfly dont buy into the hype. I suspect your life is actually going quite well. Despite all the hyperventilating on TV and the internet.....life seems to be going well....No wall is built. Immigrants still come to USA, and seem to be even more appreciative than before. the Housing market is terrible but so what? We've survived 30 years of horrible Presidents, I'm pretty sure we'll survive the next two years.
If they're so concerned with the fate of the nation under the stewardship of this St. Petersburg sleeper cell, Corker and Flake could caucus with Democrats for the remainder of their terms. Murkowski and Collins could actually exhibit their much-touted-but-never-evidenced centrality and vote down Trump's second stolen SC seat.
Nothing matters but taking the majority in the House. Democrats must control at least one house of Congress. The chairmanship of all committees, the power to issue subpoenas, the power to impeach and a general halt to Republican legislation.
23
@Julian Fernandez Yeah, I've been thinking in this direction too. It's a long shot, but probably not anymore farfetched than the Democrats winning enough seats in the election. If just two Republican Senators switched to Independent and caucused with the Dems, McConnell loses all his power. For someone like Collins, I don't even think it would hurt her re-election chances.
2
Maybe it's a fantasy to help me maintain sanity until November, but I think the blue team will take the Senate. Don't underestimate the power of anger to get people to the polls. And there's a lot of anger out there.
506
@kjb That is why Trump won. The 'Change you can believe in' promise was nothing but hit air, and the country will not let the Dems forget that for a few election cycles
@kjb
I hope you’re right.
@kjb
Yes, there is a lot of anger out there. But much of it resides in the deplorables who are now angry their idol is being "picked on" for betraying the country, using the office of the President to enrich himself and his family and cronies, destroying the environment, wiping out the financial regulations put in place to prevent another 2008 recession, starting an uninformed trade war against our allies, and the long list of things he has earned impeachment for and they don't want their devil darling impeached.
I am incredibly angry and I will be at those polls to vote come hell or high water, but then I always voted even when I was happy at the state of the nation.
Friends of the Republicans are rallying in DC this weekend, and last year in Charlottesville one of their chants were:"Jews will not replace us". Charming. In bed with racists, and the ultra rich, and with the very best propaganda/disinformation News, through the Sinclair Group, through Russian interference, from the coordinated efforts of gerrymandering, voter suppression of 100 of thousands of legitimate voters. Yeah, let's to give up.
4
Slow day at the NYT? Guess no Trump tweets to fulminate about. Cook Political Report may be non-partisan, but it does no better at predictive polling than the rest of the MSM. In any case, it's way to early for even partially reliable polls to be believable. The real issue is which party gets its base to the polls.
6
Thank you, Mr. Bruni, for that last line, which I intend to put into full action by watching “All About Eve” and forgetting about Trump for 2 hours. Love ya!
3
With Menendez it's not just the corruption trial and charges. People don't like him. He's vindictive and petty. On affairs like Cuba & Iran he's ultra-conservative. I can't stand him & I know others who feel the same way. But Trump is president...... My prayers and real hope is for Beto down in Texas. He needs that Washington Senate experience for a few years before he can run for President. And he would vanquish Ted 'Count Dracula' Cruz, which would be good for everyone.
25
@Doctor Woo
I can't pretend to be very familiar with the Menendez scandal, but surely the big picture -- the GOP elephant in the room -- is Donald Trump. This blight upon humanity is surely (adapting one of his favourite lines) the greatest scandalmeister in history. Whatever sleaze Menendez has been involved in, no matter how unlikeable he may be, it all must surely pale in comparison with Trump's despicable character and what he is doing to the US.
So I would say to NJ dems: hold your nose if necessary on Nov 6, but vote Democratic up and down the ticket. Trump needs to be declawed. Now.
14
Mr. Bruni,
Has it FINALLY sunk in how much you contributed to this fiasco with your unwavering support for the Republican Party if not for Trump as its Presidential Candidate? The Republican Party or what they have evolved into over 30 plus years is a train wreck for all that is decent and democratic, meaning the real principals this country was built on. The Christian Conservatives built a coalition starting at local levels and along the way the monied classes/business interests joined with them since their agenda's don't conflict much and they can do each other a lot of good. Now the Republican Party stands for abridgment of individual rights, courtesy of Christian Conservatives and the rights of business over any protections for individuals courtesy of their cronies. When your Marriage is no longer valid (mine too, lif I was married) because no matter who wins in November there are votes at the Supreme Court to overturn Obergefell, then what???? This is another fine mess you helped get us into, Frank.
4
@William S. Oser
I am confused. Frank Bruni never supported the Republicans and he never supported Trump!
5
My natural resting state is optimistic but I find that I can be for the mid-term Senate election. Polling is all well and good for discussion, but it comes down to whether people care enough to vote. In 2016 40+ million registered voters didn’t. And look where we ended up. So while I will do my best to help Democrats take back the whole Congress, I can’t quite bring myself to trust my fellow citizens to vote in November.
2
Prominent Americans in business, law, labor, philanthropy, sports, etc. who are deeply disturbed by Trump's scandal-ridden, corrupt, reckless and truly damaging record in the White House, need to speak out loudly about the urgency all stopping the damage he is doing, including damage to his diehard base. He must be roundly condemned not just morally, but also for his divisiveness, his lies, his catering to the super-rich, his disdain for our international friends and his use of public office for self-enrichment. We can't leave this one up to the candidates alone.
23
Thanks for the very welcomed analysis and words of encouragement, Mr. Bruni. Then there is the “October Surprise”, a reckless, thoughtless Trump tweet that will inflict damage upon all of these Republican candidates. The Fake President, hearing the footsteps of the Mueller Investigation getting louder daily behind him, continues to nationalize these campaigns, making his criminality and corruption a centerpiece. A gift to Democrats that keeps on giving!
26
"The House is the chamber of Congress that Democrats are best positioned to win in the midterm elections."
1
This column is more wishful thinking -- one might even say magical thinking -- than analysis. Its focus on seats that the Dems might pick up unfortunately ignores the seats that they will surely lose.
4
Frank, it's interesting to read your speculations and I hope you are point on. That this upcoming election may be the most important in our history is not far-fetched. Let's all hope the message gets out and people have the initiative to vote.
16
I'd say "buckle up" for everything this year. Like many, I don' t trust polling after the 2016 debacle that created this mess in the first place.
To put it bluntly, Democrats cannot afford to take anything for granted and they must campaign as if their own lives were on the line.
Actually, all our lives are on the line under this president. I've read here, and agree strongly, that should things turn south and the blue wave disappear, we'd see an emboldened Donald Trump as never before, likely testing his authoritarian instincts as never before, and possibly ending some civil liberties--just because he can.
I hate articles like this and in fact, all polls right now. I know pundits have nothing else to talk about except handicapping the midterms, but when they do, I shudder.
I cannot escape the feeling I had last year the morning after. Let's hope the candidates don't forget that either.
73
After consulting with my Crystal Ball, I predict the following outcomes on November 6, 2018:
1) Unprecedented number of voters turn out;
2) The predicted "blue wave" turns out to be a tsunami;
3) Republicans lose majority of the House;
4) Republicans lose majority of the Senate;
5) Democratic Chairs of select committees in both the House and the Senate use committee subpoena power to re-call witnesses who have in all probability lied in previous testimony before the committees;
6) Impeachment proceedings begin once Robert Mueller's final report is turned in showing outright collusion (there's that word again) specifically between Donald Trump and Russian oligarchs who promised to do all they could to throw the election his way if he slows down the sanctions or eliminates them completely.
And I can hear the Trumpsters now: "dream on," "never happen," "just like the predictions on the 2016 election."
The one difference is the man sitting in the Oval Office, who barely squeaked by on 73,000 votes to win the Electoral College. He will galvanize the country to right the Ship of State, and put it back on course.
93
@Len
from your lips to God's ears.
13
@Len
I'm not particularly religious, but I'm hanging on to your every enumerated prediction & pray you are spot on!
VOtE! I'm involved in the efforts of Campaign Ohio Turn Ohio BLUE Nov 6th 2018
6
@Len
I hope you're right ... and be aware also that if the President or Vice President is removed from office in some way (resignation or impeachment-and-conviction or for that matter even death) then a new Vice President is appointed ... WHO MUST BE CONFIRMED BY THE SENATE.
In my opinion, Pence is in it right along with Trump -- right up to his eyeballs. And unlike Trump, he's the kind of guy who might just resign rather than face a gauntlet of hearings and so on.
If Pence leaves before 2020, Trump gets to appoint a new VP, but if the Senate fails to confirm (by a simple majority), then the office remains open.
THEN, if something happens to the President, the Speaker of the House succeeds. With, it is devoutly to be hoped, a Democratic majority in the House.
Just savor that scenario for a few minutes, and then GET OUT THE VOTE.
4
Speaking from TN - Phil Bredesen was a wildly popular, twice elected governor. Bredesen brought both Nissan and Volkswagen headquarters to TN - adding over 200,000 jobs to the state. Bredesen has a strong chance of winning as long as those outside of the state - both GOP and DEMS stay out of the election - they never seem to help things.
26
The Dow is at about 25,500, about 4000 points higher than when Obama held office.
Unemployment is at 3.95.
Black unemployment is at an all time low.
You can hate Trump all you want, but these are hard numbers to run against.
MAGA.
8
@G
As part of the top 5%, I love the high Dow. But I doubt most of the electorate cares. And the unemployment rate is great, continuing the long decline since the 2008 economic crisis. However, a look at the historical unemployment rate graphs indicates that what goes down always goes up.
4
@G
It is easy to run against Putin, though. Enough pics of Trump fawning over his major creditor can be strategically placed; Tom Steyer has the money to do that. And, it is true. Trump owes Russian financiers approx. 345M - 250M from a past loan, laundered through The Bank of Cyprus and Deutsche Bank; and, a recent 95M delivered to the Trump Organization in FL, delivered in an unmarked plane. New York Magazine documented the 250M loan; 95M was on public display. Trump carries a lot of baggage: Trump U, ugly divorces, unattractive children who kill endangered species near wild animal parks; sell knock off jewelry and shoes in China; use tax payer money to fly to Peru et al in order to explore "personal business opportunities"; and, favor seekers who rent rooms in the Trump Hotel in D.C.; this profits Trump in violation of The Emoluments Clause, because his children have not divested their interests. At some point, soybean futures will be drowned in a sea of really nasty gossip.
2
@G. that is today. economics is a fickle mistress, given it's driven by emotion and digital transactions. and there are storm clouds on the horizon.
5
Bruni mentions Florida, where incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is in serious danger of losing to Rick Scott. But he glosses over North Dakota and Missouri, where incumbent Democrats Heidi Heitkamp and Claire McCaskill are equally at risk.
In other words, while Democrats are somewhat unexpectedly in a position where they could flip three Republican seats - in Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee - they are simultaneously in a position where they could lose three, leaving the Senate elections a wash.
It's still early. The last primaries in toss-up states aren't until August 28, and long-standing political wisdom holds that voters don't fully engage until after Labor Day. So Bruni is right - Democrats have a chance to win back the Senate, and the stakes are just too high to give up.
But we can't afford to fool ourselves: as things stand today, Democrats' chances are at best maybe one in three. Winning back the Senate will require exceptionally strong campaigns, determined Democratic unity, and more than a little luck.
The wild card is always turnout. There are reasons to hope that this year's turnout will be unusual - both in overall numbers, and in particular among the demographic groups least inclined to Trumpism: millennials, suburban women, African-Americans, Latinos and Asian-Americans. Maximizing turnout doesn't happen by itself, it requires funding and staffing - that is, campaign contributions and volunteer work.
politicsbyeccehomo.wordpress.com
14
@Ecce Homo
Parkland kids, their parents and teachers will be out knocking on doors; they will be enthusiastic volunteers who will remember that Trump played golf within a mile of a funeral memorial service for those dead students. His association with a disgraced NRA leadership won't help him, even with gun owners. He looks strong on the surface; don't count on what is hidden from view, disaffection by a lot of women voters, and newly enfranchised young voters who carry cell phones. He is a very unattractive demagogue who appears less in control at his cult rallies. He repeats himself, even with a limited vocabulary. Insulting Canada and Australia smacks of interfering in the elections of allies. Threatening NATO in the manner of a Grade B movie villain collecting rent from a poor woman with children; he acted like a bill collector, not exactly a dignified perch for a United States President. A boorish shove against a minor official for a photo op went around the nation and the broader world. Arriving late and leaving early for the G7 gathering was a first for the U.S. He is an equal opportunity boor.
3
Surely everyone in the media learned a lesson about the worthlessness of polling from the last presidential election? I suggest every Democrat, and anyone who values democracy at all, do everything possible to help Democrats take the Senate, which is indeed possible and is truly ALL THAT MATTERS now. Failing to do so will likely mean up to TWO more SCOTUS appointments, along with many more federal judiciary appointments, which Trump is already loading with ultra-conservatives---and these are all lifetime appointments, so our fate will be sealed for generations to come. Vote, register others to vote, write a check, join a campaign effort, talk to your neighbors, friends, and family (and be informed and nice when you do it)--and maybe we can hobble this overgrown, overfed, and self-indulgent sandbox bully of a president for the remainder of his term.
54
Frank, if our Dem party doesn't take over the house in November, shame on them.
But on the other hand, if the Republicans don't keep their control of their Senate, shame on them.
With both the congressional parties fighting mad to take away as much advantages from one another in the upcoming midterms on November 6th, it is utterly important for Democrats to stay focused on the real prize : Impeachment of Donald J. Trump.
And with the upcoming verdict from Mr. Mueller coming before October this year, the onus of controlling the two chambers of congress lies with the Democrats and they cannot let it slide, no matter what.
Democrats have to remember that the future of this great country lies on the shoulders of each and every Dem members.
That is the main reason why each and every Dem candidates have to take this midterm elections as once in a lifetime opportunity in their lifetimes when they can get rid of this country's foreign adversary : Russia.
No wonder most of the G.O.P. office holders are scared to their bones, with almost a hundred Republican incumbents including their speaker of the House, Paul Ryan called it quits.
Those Republicans who went through the surge of Tea Party candidates for the House and Senate know it's 2010 all over again.
And they've no intention to be a part of the history when Democrats repeated their tactic and blew a hole on the walls of the congress with marches of Blue party members entering through those gaping holes,one after another.
2
@ihatejoemcCarthy
Impeachment is a long and costly exercise, and doomed to fail without reams of documented crimes and misdemeanors. However, Article 25 is very doable: "unfit to serve", obvious on its face. He as unfit to serve as Jackson and his Trail of Tears, as corrupt as Dick Cheney, as open to bribes as Dick Nixon, possibly on the same level as Buchanan. He is definitely open to a loss; he lost the popular vote, appointed by a gerrymandered EC, an opportunistic, greedy family, a wife who won't even hold hands, and a terrible petty adolescent personality.
As all our individual lives may simply be too busy to be traveling around to swing districts around the country, this can be an especially empowering time to send small donations.
Relatives gave me a bit of cash on my birthday, to "buy something you need". Hmm, what do I need? Well, I need for my country to try and recover from the continually unfolding, horrors of 2016-2018. So as a gift to myself (and perhaps the world) I contribute a little bit every couple of days, as I learn about these races and others.
51
The Sane-ami is a 50-state, every-spot, President-to-dog-catcher strategy, because "covfefe" is a disgrace to all the states. We'll vote sane from the top down so the swamp can be impeached from the top down.
"give up"?! His GOP are the ones who've given up on America.
We'll hit their Congress stranglehold hard, and follow through.
14
Bring in the clones. An army of Chuck Schumer look, think and sound alikes. Rat-a-tat-tat drum roll. Make a religion out of it.
5
Just look at this comment everyone.
This is the Republican tactic.
They certainly can't talk about their actual policy plans (create a huge deficit by giving tax breaks to multimillionaires! use the deficit as an excuse to destroy Social Security and Medicare (two programs the Republicans opposed from day 1)! Keep the minimum wage low! and did I mention cut taxes for multimillionaires!)
And so they attack Democratic leaders in the Congress, at the moment Schumer and Pelosi, but, no matter, any Democrat who stands up for something will be attacked
Obviously, Bredesen, an impressive and accomplished former Governor of Tennessee who is widely respected there is no Schumer clone. But, that's all the Republicans have: Republicans have no policies that would help anyone who isn't a multimillionaire in Tennessee or anywhere else.
90
@farleysmoot
Bring in the Obamas, the Bidens, and Joe Manchin. Republicans always field a bunch of angry old white men; they couldn't even keep Jeff Flake on board, or Collins and Heitkamp fully on board. A line up of Republican leaders looked like a photo op at an aging Shriners convention.
7
The subheading is a pearl: "The party’s odds aren’t great, but they look better all the time." Sounds like a line in a Chinese war movie: "Comrade commander we have a great news! We'll carry you on a stretcher."
2
Our only hope lies in women and their votes. The Millineal bros are a lost cause.
8
The fight for the Senate in Florida is heating up. I have it on good authority that Floridians are supporting Beto O'Rourke in Texas running against "Lyin' Ted" (h/t Donald Trump) Cruz for Senate. We don't have a Beto here, alas. Rick Scott wasn't the best governor in our memory, and probably wouldn't be a good senator, either, but Bill Nelson is fighting to keep his Senate seat, though he's held it through thick and thin for 18 years and will be 81 at the end of this term in 2024...a tough roe to hoe for the only Democratic statewide elected official. Democrats aren't giving up on Senate seats, but if there will be any blue wave at all, it will be in the House of Representatives at the Mid-Terms. The president -- hopefully a lame duck in training -- bloviates that he'll earn a tsunami kind of red wave in 12 weeks. We'll see, won't we?
5
Winning the Senate won't be easy, but neither will be winning the House. Complacency or despondency is deadly, for both parties. Energy and momentum are the life blood and today's special election in Ohio may be both a bell-weather and a game-changer. If Danny O'Connor wins, it will pour energy and money into all kinds of races, and show that, even with the Democratic "leadership's" ineptness at reading their base and at strategy, Democrats CAN win.
The math is simple: 218 seats in the House and Democrats control it--and now have 195.
50 seats in the Senate, and, with John McCain at home, boldly battling terminal cancer, that gives the Democrats a veto over McConnell that even HE cannot break. Because VP Pence can ONLY vote if there's a tie. That's not in the rules, it's in the Constitution itself. 2 seats, and Dems have absolute control. Heller is vulnerable, Tennessee is up for grabs, and Ted Cruz in Texas is SO disliked, while Beto O'Rourke is eminently likeable and charismatic that turnout can knock Cruz off.
Far from a sure thing, but it's actually possible. It means money, registration and getting people to the polls.
10
Ah yes, "the youngest voters, whose turnout is typically disappointing but whose distaste for Trump is strong." These voters might not be the only key to victory, but they are a big key on a small key ring.
According to an account by David Leonhardt last February, "In the most recent midterm election — in 2014 — only 16 percent of American citizens between the ages of 18 and 29 voted ... That group also happened to be overwhelmingly liberal."
If you're young and if you read this, young compatriots, VOTE this November. After all, you have the most at stake for the longest period of time. Don't let us seniors steal your future from you.
67
Yes, VOTE, by all means. But also THINK! There is clear evidence that this election will be won by swing voters in swing districts. They include not only Obama-Trump voters, but also Romney-Clinton voters. They are being courted assiduously by a new, promising crop of Democratic candidates.
These candidates need your help, both with money and messaging. So VOTE by all means, but also contribute, and curtail the name-calling. Stop using the "R" word and stop attacking Trump. The best revenge against Trump is to beat him at the polls. With a little tactical self-restraint, Democrats can win both houses in November, and hold Trump to account.
• "Why the Midterms Won't Be Won by Playing to the Base," Henry Olsen, NYTimes, Aug. 6, 2018 http://tinyurl.com/yc3wcya5
• "The 2016 Exit Polls Led Us to Misinterpret the 2016 Election," Thomas B. Edsall, NYTimes, March 29, 2018 http://tinyurl.com/yc5qlqpg
• "House Race in Pennsylvania May Turn on Trump Voters’ Regrets," Trip Gabriel, NYTimes, March 2, 2018 http://tinyurl.com/ybmuxnp8
• "The Math is Clear: Democrats Need to Win More Working-Class White Votes," Ruy Teixeira, Vox, Jan. 19, 2018 http://tinyurl.com/y8sqzs65
• "Rebelling Republican Suburbs Offer Democrats Path to House Control," Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns, NYTimes, Dec. 18, 2017 http://tinyurl.com/y9xwszww
7
Is it possible that I have not been watching Congress closely enough? Heidi Heitkamp is promoting that she voted with Trump 50% of the time. Other than the tax cuts, which Trump initiatives have passed through the legislative process? All I've seen is Trump signing executive orders surrounded by smiling faces, the owners of which did not cast a vote for anything.
3
In addition to the Supreme Court nominees, the Senate also confirms a large number of senior Executive branch leaders. Its hard to see a Democratic Senate confirming swamp creatures like Scott Pruitt or Andrew Wheeler to head the EPA.
If the first 18 months are any indication, there is likely to be more scandal induced turnover in the Trump Administration, especially with Mueller report pending and appropriate Congressional Committee investigations.
31
Bruni is probably right about Menendez.
How unfortunate.
2
@Objectivist And yet, what does the worse that Mendenez was accused of (and he was quitted, wasn't he?) compare to the least of the crimes of the Trump cabal?
1
Yes, indeed, this is no time to split hairs. Californians are not West Virginians. So Blue States, let Manchin do his thing. He and his counterparts running in other Red States know their people, their issues, their needs. Give them space, give them support.
The state of political affairs most especially in the White House with a GOP Congress running a close second has sunk below its earthly nadir. It’s crossed the river Styx. The utter corruption, deceit, and downright evil are unprecedented in recent hiistory. Even during the Nixon era, we at least had a Congress which eventually placed democracy before self. Now, these Republican folks in both chambers waver between spinelessness and complicity with their man tainting the Oval Office. No, Frank, I will not give up on our Democrats in the Senate. And I will divert all my angst, somehow, to bringing us to victory this November, even from my Deep Blue and very smoky state.
90
Unfortunately the dems have poor weak leadership, no back bone, no foresight for the working class, and no voter support. The nail is the fact that big money owns both parties so why bother until Citizens United is reversed.
6
@Rick Why bother: 5 Republican justices made Citizens United happen. 4 Democratic justices passionately opposed them. More Republicans will keep it from ever being reversed.
Democratic commissioners at the Federal Elections Commision enforce the law, Republicans don't. Democrats in Congress try to protect our elections against foreign interference, Republicans stop them. Republicans in control of state legislatures limit voting and Democrats encourage wider citizen participation.
Major parties aren't perfect institutions and never will be. But if you can't tell your flawed allies from your enemies, you simply incentivize the worst politicians amongst us -- and you accelerate the further degradation of American politics. And yeah, it can get a lot worse.
If you can't tell the difference between the two parties at this late date, you're really working hard to avoid reality.
5
What do republicans have? Tax breaks for the rich, sticking their government noses in a woman’s private business, sticking their noses in people’s bedrooms to make sure they sleep with the right person, and Ted Cruz.
2
Citizens United won’t be overturned as long as GOP controls gov branches. Please, please, PLEASE vote for Beto this Nov... he represents the crack in the ice for Texas. Even if you split your ticket to vote for all the other Republicans running, at least help get Beto in office.
22
This morning on a TV show, it was reported that Trump has a 89% approval rating among Republicans - that they approve of the job he is doing. So how could anyone imagine a Blue Wave?
Ok, Ok - Yes these are poll numbers and since November 2016 most people with a brain no longer trust them. I confess bewilderment when reading or hearing about them. What I do know is that we live in Trumplandia now where up is down and predictions are for fools.
I believe that Democrats should go for it in every race. Why not?
Anything is possible these days and a pleasant surprise would be great. I believe the Democrats have the issues so start with a living wage and go from there.
31
Trump may have a hold on some base, but the Obama/Trump voters are looking carefully and will continue to make up their own minds. Obama/Trump voters and women of all levels of education will vote differently this year than they did in 2016.
2
@Elizabeth
Remember that the absolute number of self-identified Republicans is decreasing. Rather than thinking "89% of Republicans still strongly approve of Trump," a more accurate assessment is, "Pretty much the only people still calling themselves Republicans are those who are die-hard Trump supporters. Everybody else has walked away from the GOP."
So, a "Republican" identity is now more or less a function of liking Donald Trump, and not the other way round.
6
@Elizabeth Something to consider is that approval rating may be of those left in the GOP after moderates and liberal Republicans have left and are now calling themselves 'independents'. That is one reason you are correct in casting a skeptical eye towards those polls, they may now only be showing those who are enamored Trump Republicans instead of the larger, broader GOP party of yore. In any event, come November, everyone VOTE!!!!
1
So according to this article, Democrats are going to win because of
1. Disapproval of president trump
2. Democrats’ strategy of saying they are willing to vote with president trump
That’s why democrats will always be the losers of politics. They care about what people think so much that they appear indecisive. Voters just want someone who goes for it, no matter what “it” is.
8
@Lou
Obama won his Presidency for 8 yrs. Biden never lost a race. Emmanuel is a street fighter who just might bring in Chicago and Illinois. Ohio is really a swing State this time around. The Coasts will get out the vote in large numbers. FL is not a sure bet for Republicans now, as it has been in the past - flooding and pesticide pollution will not help current leadership. Manafort does not help Republicans who looked the other way. The constant drip of one scandal after another will take a toll; the attack on an honest, decent former Marine is a losing bet; he will keep his silence and his investigative staff methodically moving forward. He scares Republicans more than Democratic candidates; they can't touch him.
4
Nothing Menendez has done is worse than so many Republicans. Democrats, stop throwing your champions under the bus for things Republicans don't even notice in their own candidates. Bob will have my vote, as will any Democrat going forward. A vote for a Republican is a vote for Trump. If you want more Trump, vote Republican.
148
The stupid backwards Dems are going to have to rid themselves of the useless greedy old guard that has been holding the party back for decades. Right now they are fighting amongst themselves and will continue to lose all to keep the status quo for the old and very rich guard.
4
@joe Hall
"stupid backwards Dems"???
What could be more "stupid backwards" than denying that fossil fuels are destroying the planet? Sorry, sir, but the GOP wins the "stupid backwards" competition by a country light year.
20
Another hugely unnecessary ‘politics is like a game’ article filled with total speculation and handicapping. Frank - this isn’t the track. Would much rather have a piece about why young people aren’t voting and the efforts to change that.
9
As an old progressive Democrat, I can only hope you are right. And, I will make some donations to campaigns to give hope a chance. My biggest worry is what red state Senate Democrats--Joe Donnelly, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Manchin, and Claire McCaskill--will do on the truly awful nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. If they can drag the vote out until after the election, they can just say they're waiting for his confirmation testimony before deciding. Otherwise a Democratic Senate win may be a pyrrhic victory.
35
"Democratic leaders have...ramped up their digital efforts with an eye toward the youngest voters, whose turnout is typically disappointing but whose distaste for Trump is strong."
Turnout in the 2014 midterm was at historically low levels. Less than 24% of eligible Texans actually voted in Nov that year and most other states hit similar lows.
But as of the end of June, 2018, as reported in the NYT, total voting was up sharply in 123 Democratic districts compared to 2014, compared to only 19 Republican districts. So democracy may still have a chance in the US.
Also, it is important to remember about states that Trump won in 2016, around 15% of all votes, mostly Democratic, were siphoned off by Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.
So the odds remain challenging but the energy favors Democrats for now. If Democrats retake the Senate, it will almost certainly be the result of a huge gender gap that started with the 2017 Women's March on Washington, the one with a bigger turnout than the Inauguration (in case you forgot, Trump).
61
You are right, Frank, it is a reach! We have everything to gain by reaching and so much to lose by giving in to doubt and despair.Everyone in a state with a senate seat on the ballot needs to look back on the last two years and examine their values and their hopes for the country.By November there will be more results from the first trials of Trump cohorts who ran afoul of the law.There may be more information from Mr.Mueller.Hope is not what we need but a fierce determination!
24
Democrats should give up on the Senate in 2018. The marginal seats are mostly Joe Lieberman-style conservative Democrats who will only hurt the party's future. We need a unified majority of real, strong Democrats, and we don't need them until 2020.
We need them for the moment. Once Trump has been neutralized, we can see about primarying them in favor of actual progressives
8
@Michael
You've got to be kidding? Have you ever heard of the Supreme Court??? Two of the four reliable liberals are very old and barely hanging on and may not be able to do so for two more years. Even one more Trump appointment would be a disaster for generations to come. Never give up.
5
@Michael I doubt the South will ever produce a democrat along the lines of Bernie Sanders, however most democrats tend to agree on things like women's reproductive health, LGBTQ rights, health care, and the environment . At this point we need every seat for every vote - and if need be - we need to take them one election at a time.
17
It may well be that the Democrats need to focus more attention on Senate races, but what is just as intriguing now is how well the Dems seem to be doing at the local/state political level in terms of turnout alone.
In the past decade and a half the GOP racked up a preponderance of seats in a majority of state governments to the detriment of voters' and the public's rights; the Dems should have learned that this strategy is also as important as federal elections.
Democrats need to run candidates in ALL races (federal. state, and local (which they have not done too often in the past), and support and FUND them at all levels of government. While it is indeed interesting to read about trends for the Romney-Clinton voters vs. the Obama-Trump voters, following current polling results for "Independent" voters is also fascinating. The Democratic Party needs to focus laser-like attention on this voting bloc as well as on registered Democrats at all levels of government.
At a time when "outrage fatigue" may be infecting the electorate at large (a shrewd strategy at which our "stable genius" POTUS excels), it is incumbent on the Democrats to fire up its own "base" as well as the Independents - that time and time again consists of a majority of all registered voters polled.
To preserve the integrity of the principles on which our country was founded, getting out the vote for elections at all levels is critical. November 6th is now less than three months away!
36
The Senate is too important not to fight for.
First, a Democratic majority there means blocking Trump's far right Supreme Court nominees.
Secondly, a Democratic majority means gaining chairmanship of committees. While the same is true of the House, winning the Senate means getting rid of the absurdly-placed Inhofe chairing a science committee.
Third, if we get both branches of Congress, then our legislators will be a check against Trump, rather than an extension of his administration.
76
@NM -- wouldn't it be rich to make Mitch McConnell the minority leader? And then Charles Schumer could block Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court the way McConnell did to Merrick Garland. That would be the grandest karma of all. Maybe it's wishful thinking but I can dream, can't I?
75
@silver vibes
My dream is that Kavanaugh's nomination is blocked now while McConnell is still Majority Leader.
@NM
The best part is getting McConnell off his high horse. Oh, and no Supreme Court picks unless approved by Elizabeth Warren.
Make no mistake - Republicans know that the Senate is more important than the House as well and will spend and support their candidates accordingly. Also, the idea that Mississippi will be up for grabs but NJ won't is a late summer fantasy. No Roy Moore is running in MS and in NJ, middle class democrats are asked to vote the thoroughly corrupt Senator Menendez - that may be a bridge too far especially after the first wave of Governoe Murphy;s tax increases.
7
Since the blue wave will be muted by gerrymanders, voter suppression, and, worse, election tampering and Russian/Republican chicanery, the wave will truly need to be a tsunami. Talk to millenials in your life, and tell them to make sure all their friends vote. This has to be an overwhelming victory or nothing will change. VOTE!
339
You can’t gerrymander in Senate Rae’s. It’s statewide, no districts.
7
@MD Monroe
Yes, but Repubs are infamous for caging the voter rolls, to lessen the number of folks who will be allowed to vote.
Check your registration. If the status is 'registered' then print out that page and take it with you to the polls. If not, call your election officials.
@MD Monroe Not technically, but gerrymandered state legislatures can more easily impact policies (like how well funded anti cyber efforts are in the state, whether or not "blue" districts get enough polling places, etc) that can impact statewide races.
Frank Bruni, not a comment yet in sight, so I can submit early with a very simple thank you message followed by an off topic question directed to you and anyone who reads this.
My thank you: I find columns like this one that review where the Democratic Party finds itself, day by day far more interesting than the Charles Blow series on daily diagnosing of Donald Trump's failings - English language, tweets, psychological diagnoses and more, most recently "President Dumb and Dumber". Readers love them as shown by the 1611 comments yesterday, the majority doing what Blow had already done, if sometimes with more style. To what end? That was my question.
Your column today is a good start, especially if it could be followed by your identifying candidates who have formulated clear goals for 2018 and 2020 and presented them formally. A caution: Keep cool and do not tell us that any one of them is a far left socialist. Even those who have used that word are not at all far left, seen from European perspective. They just want to provide health care for all, infrastructure like that around me here in SE, and simple pleasures like parental leave and a few weeks of paid vacation.
My off topic question, posed yesterday at Blow: Would you support the complete elimination of the USCB system of classifying us by race as proposed by former USCB Director Kenneth Prewitt? Neo-Nazis and white nationalists love that system since it places them at the top.
Citizen US SE
30
This is a marathon not a sprint. But yes, those of us who believe in American values should keep working to put the reins of state into the hands of people who will help all Americans, not just the white and the wealthy. The Republican party has consigned itself to treason and plutocracy; their base is the unhinged racists, the super wealthy, and corporations. They would make Putin our overlord. For healthcare, a clean justice system, infrastructure, and a sane taxation system in which the rich pay their share in order to fund programs and a safety net for us all, we need to put Democrats into power. We must keep working, fighting, struggling to keep our republic.
77
If you are a Democrat who lives in a state where no Democratic Senator is up for reelection or where the Democratic candidate for Senate is likely to prevail, please adopt a Democratic Senate candidate in a State where you can make a difference.
My adoptee is Beto O'Rourke of Texas. It's a safe bet that O'Rourke won't win his long-shot Senate races against Ted Cruz if he is underfunded and lacks volunteer support. What's looking more and more possible every day is that if Democratic donors/volunteers from around the country help him compete with Cruz on a level financial playing field, he just may win.
The best case scenario is that we can help our fellow Democrats in traditionally Red states push strong candidates like O'Rourke, Cinema, Breseden over the line. The worst case is that, in order to win in those states, even Republican candidates will have to distance themselves from the Trump presidency.
237
@pgp
Thank you for adopting Beto. Great idea!
6
Because so many Texans vote straight ticket (i.e. just punch “Republican” at the top of the ballot and then leave), Beto is having to run against the entire Republican slate—Texans will have to skip the “lazy” vote and go line-by-line to select his name if they are still voting for their other Republican choices. So Beto is not just taking on Cruz (who is loathed even by some Texas Republicans) but all the other GOP campaigning for offices. He doesn’t just have to put-fundraise Cruz...he has to out-fundraise the entire Texas GOP slate. It will truly require a blue tsunami in Trump territory—any help from safely blue states would be greatly appreciated!
7
@pgp Thank you! Smart thinking and you have picked a winner. Beto O'Rourke for Senate sign is in my front yard.
Here in Tarrant County, TX many are republicans - Dallas folks not so much.
Beto is working hard and he is honest - and ted cruz is - well we all know.
5
Vote in every election.
106
Short memories on the left. Remember when Rachel Maddow was gloating about the lopsided victory Hillary was poised for? If the US military fought battles like Democrats we would never have won a war. Maybe you take the House. Maybe if you do and don't immediately try to Impeach you can get the Senate in 2020. I did say maybe. Try to run the table like Hillary did and you will lose the winnable fights.
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@GregP
You have a very selective memory; Hillary beat Trump by 3M popular votes. If the Dems get out the vote, demographics can over come gerrymandering. Not all Republicans are proud of this corrupt scandal ridden Administration. Polls might not be all that accurate with some Republicans reluctant to admit they might vote for a Democrat. Like the frog in a slow boiling pot, the Republicans might not notice a shift in the tenor of the times, including a temporary shift in their base. Closed factories stay closed; jobs stay over seas; Main Streets survive due to an influx of Democratic entrepeneurs. This is not an easy mid-term to call.
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@Linda Miilu
Hillary popular vote total is irrelevant. How many Republican voters in New York and California stayed home because they KNEW where their State's Elector's were going? A million or two in each state is a conservative estimate. If it had been a popular vote election the totals would be different. Didn't forget, just know that it didn't matter.
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@GregP I guess you never actually watch the Rachel Maddow show, because I have never seen her gloat, ever.
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The Senate should be up for grabs, given the spectacle of GOP members who keep running to Russia...for what exactly?
Given that Russia attacked us in 2016 and continues to do so via information war, GOP calls for ‘better relations’ do not pass the smell test. Call it collusion, collaboration, or outright treason. The GOP is clearly putting party before country. They must go.
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@Larry Roth I've been wondering how many of those Congresspeople have received donations from Russia. This is what we need to investigate. Something smells very fishy. And I'm definitely not a conspiracy theorist, I've always been very pragmatic and skeptical.
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Bob Menendez is in real trouble in NJ if my anecdotal evidence is correct. I've heard of way too many solidly blue Dems waver on him because of the corruption scandal. Half don't even know the nature of charges, just that they exist.
I'm not sure what's to be done about it at this juncture. If he wins, it will be a referendum of a Trump more than anything else.
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Channel the anger, Dems; vote early, and take a like-minded friend.
Donor Dems should follow Obama's list of candidates to support:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/01/former-president...
Don't succumb to outrage fatigue !
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@R. Law
Your last sentence says it all. It is difficult to be bombarded daily and sometimes hourly with the next unbelievable headline. We need to focus on the real and possible, and put our mouths, muscles and money behind the effort to save our Democracy.
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@R. Law
I don't donate to Dems, but if i did, i still somehow don't think that the likes of J.B. Pritzker need the few bucks i could manage to cough up. Obama always knew what side his bread was buttered on. If i were inclined to give to Dems, it would be the likes of those Obama didn't endorse - Beto O'Rourke, Ayannah Pressley, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, Brent Welder, Kevin DeLeon.
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@rtj - Obama's list is just a starting point, since there are obviously more than 81 Dems running. It'll make you feel good to go ahead and donate to Dems :)
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