Quick Mexico start growing more soy beans and get even with Trump. In a few years we will be trying to get asylum in Mexico from the tyranny of the Republican Administration.
6
This article may give US farmers the false impression that they shouldn't be too worried about Chinese tariffs on soy beans.
While it may take a few years to gear up production in other countries (beyond Brazil), the climate zone in which soy beans can be grown is a large swath around the globe in the northern and southern hemispheres. So, China should be able to get the soy beans it needs entirely without the US in a matter of time.
4
This article is poorly written and undermines the potential severity of the trade conflict on soybean farmers in the US. Brazil has been a fierce soybean production competitor for the past several years and has equaled or nearly surpassed our production. China wouldn't impose tariffs on US soybean unless they has already made plans to import more Brazilian soybean, of which there is a large supply. If the Trump administration doesn't let up on Chinese import tariffs, American soybean farmers will undoubtedly suffer.
5
South America produces almost as many soybeans as the U.S. and China has been looking to them to get around issues like this.
6
I believe Vietnam is buying American soybeans, doctoring bills of landings and country of origin certificates and shipping to China. Business people always find a way.
5
Whatever our thoughts on China might be, they are still the most extraordinary country in the history of the world. In a period of 40 years, they have gone from third world to the second largest economy. Do they have problems? Of course they do. They have all kinds of problems, but they also have the fortitude to resolve them. Every action has consequences. Don't expect the Chinese to come crawling back with their tail between their legs. Just like the trump administration tactics, they are working behind the scenes continually moving forward towards the ultimate goal while everyone else is focusing on something else.
5
China certainly cannot flip a switch and stop importing US soy overnight. However, soy beans grow in a lot of places, not just the United States. You can bet there are a lot of countries looking to fill the gap in the market of some 1.3 billion people. China would probably prefer to avoid this problem, but are they going to do it at the cost of meeting Trump's demands? (Which - according to NYT columnist Paul Krugman are vague, incoherent, and in some cases even impossible.)
7
The game seems to be Mr. Putin's. He has two superpowers to tame - the United States and China. How to go about it?
He already has us tangled up to our eyeballs in the quagmires of the Middle East (since Bush,) and he is using Israel as his ally in this enterprise. Then he has us messing up in China (since Trump) and driving a bigger wedge between us and NATO since his first go in 2001 (remember Rumsfeld and his "Old Europe" nonsense, the leaked conversations between Chirac, Shroeder and Putin, Blair Poodling to Bush in St. Petersburg, etc?)
He has played this masterfully and our State Department, CIA, Media, etc... have been useless to us, in fact, they have been a bunch of opinionated, bloated, overpaid distractions to what has been going on. Russia does not need America to collapse or China to collapse, they just need us to stay off balance while they get their ducks in a row.
So far we are undoing 70+ years of efforts in Europe (including the EU/EEC) and the last 40 years or so of stabilizing China and the Far East.
Hey, at least we get to put an anti-abortion guy in the Supreme Court and overturn Roe vs Wade. Which will not stop abortion, it will just make it harder in some states and easier in others as "market forces" kick in. What a waste of time and resources, ... and opportunity!!!
4
“ Our State Department.... has been useless to us”. Would this be the same State Department that the wrecking ball named Trump has been busy dismantling? ( Thank goodness we can now sleep peacefully at night now that the North Korean nuclear threat has been eliminated!) But you’re right of course: on to more important work.... like banning breastfeeding!!
2
Fellow Chinese: you are welcome to Brazil, to buy all soybeans you need. We Brazilians are very happy to supply anything that you need!!! Now we grow as much soybeans as the US and we can easily expand and grow twice as much! This article by the NY Times is not showing the real situation. I does note mention that Brazil can easily supply the soybeans that the US will no longer sell to the Chinese because of the trade War. Besides, the Chinese can buy a lot of soybeans in Argentina. In Brazil we have an advantage over the US and other growers: we have the largest farmable surface of the world and we now grow soybeans all over the country. When the climate is not favorable in the south, we have a good climate in the north and vice versa. Mr. Trump is a nice guy to us: he's only speeding up our ascent towards being the number one supplier of food to the World.
7
The communists' greed for land is now coming back to haunt China. Over the last 30 years local communist governments in China have confiscated huge swaths of farmland from farmers and communities for construction, enriching themselves and their cronies. Protests by farmers were squashed with extreme violence. This land, often pristine farmland in Chinas south and east, is gone forever. About one tenth of Chinese farmland is contaminated with heavy metals, and desertification looms in several provinces. Unfortunately China has been infected by the irrational GMO scare, preventing production of higher yields of safe product. Even if China produces more soybeans, the Chinese will not trust their own products.
America leads the world--in agriculture, as well as in arms production. [Think, "guns and butter."] But that doesn't mean we should employ our strengths to bludgeon our neighbors.
China is a rising power, with billions of people, with very long memories. If we abuse them now, they will remember, and not forget.
No doubt, the time is coming when we'll need the Chinese more than they need us. Why ruin our own chances for future happiness, by inflicting pain in the present?
2
Chinese have put tariffs on USA since day 1, including tariffs on people. Harvard’s Eric Liu explains this is why there have been millions and millions of Chinese-Americans but ZERO American-Chinese.
2
Hey China: we’ve got plenty of tariff-free soy-beans for sale!
7
Good luck to the Chinese soybean farmers. If U.S. farmers voted for Donald Trump, they have only themselves to blame. I noticed the drop in soybean futures over the last few days. Good!
4
Nonsense. It takes less than a year to plant and harvest a field of soybeans. And there are enough countries whose farmers would love to take advantage of increased prices and extra tariffs on their American competitors – Australia, Russia, Ukraine – to name only a few of them. No matter how you slice it, American farmers will suffer – anyone would if their product was automatically 25% more expensive than their competitors. I wouldn't worry about Chinese not getting enough soybeans - such a market will not go unsatisfied.
7
Baloney. The US produces less than 23% of the world's soybeans; tied with Brazil, & Argentina not far behind. Stop trying to make Trump look smart; it can't be done.
6
The article would have been better had it put in context America's production vs the rest of the world's production. Comparing US imports to China's domestic production capability is just one facet of the story.
The real story here though will be the unintended consequence of this "easy to win" trade war. 1. A concerted effort by the Chinese to conquer the technology and policies of modern agriculture (predicted result: in 5 years, domestic production will be up 10 fold). 2. A closer alliance with Russia and other "silk road" countries ( predictd result: in 5 years the US will not be a major trading partner with most Asian countries).
5
Soya oil is not a rare earth. Edible oils are largely interchangeable. Consumption is a function of price.
Plant oils are easily substituted. From Wikipedia:
* Coconut oil, a cooking oil, with medical and industrial applications as well. Extracted from the kernel or meat of the fruit of the coconut palm. Common in the tropics, and unusual in composition, with medium chain fatty acids dominant.
* Cottonseed oil, used as a salad and cooking oil, both domestically and industrially.
* Maize oil (corn oil), one of the principal oils sold as salad and cooking oil.
* Olive oil, used in cooking, cosmetics, soaps, and as a fuel for traditional oil lamps.
* Palm oil, the most widely produced tropical oil. Popular in West African and Braziliancuisine. Also used to make biofuel.
* Peanut oil (Ground nut oil), a clear oil with some applications as a salad dressing, and, due to its high smoke point, especially used for frying.
* Rapeseed oil, including Canola oil, one of the most widely used cooking oils.
* Safflower oil, until the 1960s used in the paint industry, now mostly as a cooking oil.
* Sesame oil, cold pressed as light cooking oil, hot pressed for a darker and stronger flavor.
* Soybean oil, produced as a byproduct of processing soy meal.
* Sunflower oil, a common cooking oil, also used to make biodiesel.
3
Many countries can grow soy beans ... not just U.S. and Brazil. Will take a few growing seasons for the shift, but China will find other suppliers. By then perhaps U.S. soybean farmers will have started to shift to other crops. Before they shift, as a vegan, I'll find my own cost for tofu and soy milk declining.
1
If the U.S. banned high fructose corn syrup in food products, as much of Europe does, there would be no need to grow so much corn and a population with less diabetes. Burning it in our automobiles, of course, is lunacy. (automobiles which use 2-3% of all energy consumed to move the body in the car). The future is vegetarian, organic and attentive to nature--or we all suffer profoundly.
4
NYT " Still, soy-producing states like Iowa and Illinois might not feel the tariffs’ impact right away. China buys so much soy from the United States — $14 billion last year — that it can hardly switch to new suppliers overnight. "
To points about US/China trade pattern.
First, the terms of trade between China-US resemble those of third world countries and advanced economies. The US relies on soybean exports while China ships back manufactured goods.
Second, soybeans can be easily grown in many areas of the world. In a few years, Brazil and Argentina have the potential to replace American soybeans imported by China.
The problem with Trump's trade war is similar to W.s invasion of Iraq. That i.s., what to do after a short term apparent victory.
8
Like in all wars, the poor and politically weak on both sides pay the ultimate price. Farmers in US Midwest are losing their markets in China...may be for a long haul to S. American competitors.... The even poorer and desperate farmers in China will be pressed by local Chinese authorities to produce more soy even if other crops (e.g. vegetables) bring better profits....ouch
1
Although it was briefly mentioned towards the end of the article, China can simply shift their importation to another country. One of the benefits of a state-managed economy. Plus, there's a basic problem with tariffs. With a 25% tax on product A, it's always going to be fairly easy to find another producer who is able to undercut that price and make a profit.
Soybeans aren't hard to grow and don't require a specialized climate. And if these tariffs persist and the American farmers are replaced by farmers in other countries (there are farms in other countries besides China), the market share won't magically shift back when/if the tariffs are removed.
12
There is no mention of the fact that most of the soybean imports are going towards ANIMAL feed. That means that only ANIMALS are eating this crop. If the Chinese consumers simply moved to a vegan diet, the China-based soybean crop would be more than sufficient to feed th entire population. Look up animal feed efficiency ratio. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/03/20/1713820115
5
Not going to happen.
2
Brazil's farmers will be delighted to replace US farmers in the China market.
20
This is not a short term loss folks. As countries find replacements for U.S. agriculture and products they will have no reason to come back when Trump is gone. The good ole days are just that.
25
Here in Quebec we have just experienced hottest week in history. We are 595 thousand square miles and we do grow soybeans and other pulse crops. The locally grown endame beans are the tastiest and most tender I have ever eaten. There is no logical reason to grow soy in China when more labour intensive crops can be grown. We are slaves to irrational farming economics. Corn is as irrational as it gets as there is no way to get more out than you put in. The world needs protein not empty carbs. American agriculture wastes water and resources producing food we don't need destroying resources like water we can't afford to lose.
Maybe it is time to consider human welfare before we are all toast. Modern farming is more environmental pillage than is agriculture. Here in Quebec farming sees more fertile land every year because our government understands farming is much more than just making money.
10
"Corn is as irrational as it gets as there is no way to get more out than you put in.".....You need to explain your comment. Corn is 9% protein and corn grown in the Midwest is not irrigated so it doesn't consume any water. Can you elaborate???
5
W.
Everything that grows contains protein. Corn is something I eat only in season realizing what its carb to protein ratio is and glycemic load is extremely high. It is 7% protein compared to soy's 40%. Nebraska is already warning about corn irrigation.
I live in farming country where we grow soy beans and corn and there is no scarcity of water. Here is a Scientific American article on corn and the Ogallala aquifer. I do like Mexican food occasionally but I really like my own hot and sour soup. We need corn but certainly its cost is way too high and ethanol's caloric conversion way too low. I don't want to stop corn just reduce its production to what is merited.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-ogallala-aquifer/
From the Guardian, UK, 2009
"Is eating soya causing damage to the planet?
Growing soybeans has serious eco consequences "
"Globally, over the past two decades 300m hectares of tropical forests have been felled thanks to the soya model. Meanwhile, in Brazil alone, soya cultivation occupies 20.5m ha (in 1940 just 704ha). How much more can the planet sustain?
Precisely the question the Round Table on Responsible Soya Association (responsiblesoy.org) is attempting to answer. This is where transnational growers, producers and traders such as Unilever, Monsanto and Carrefour meet to set out conditions for soya expansion that won't wreak havoc on ecosystems, biodiversity or land rights. How is this progressing? Well, judging by the letter of no confidence that has greeted the round table's recent programme - which included GM soya as part of the sustainable solution (toxicsoy.org) and was signed by major environmental groups including the UK Soil Association - not too well. This is not farming as the storybooks tell it. Power is channelled into the arms of soya kings (the new oil barons) and transnational agribusiness. These are vast monocultures with just a few workers per 1,000ha to apply sprays to a crop that kills biodiversity and contributes to soil erosion."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/jun/21/ethical-living-soya
That was 9 years ago. The situation has not improved
8
Elephants and pangolins aren't doing too well either. Hmm. Wonder why...
The US is just as dependent on China, not just as an export market for agriculture. One of the things that Trump and his supporters seem to either not understand or don't care is that a lot of American business and jobs depend on imports. Trucking, warehousing, retail...all these will be impacted as prices rise due to tariffs. This is not to mention disruption in complex manufacturing where supply chains cross international borders more than once.
The Trump administration has this fantasy that domestic supply will immediately leap to fill supply chains, but as in the case with China it's going to be a process rather than a snap of the finger. It's also simply cost more. Even if temporary, the disruption will most likely create lay-offs. Trump calls it "temporary pain," but how well can American workers withstand the pain of a 12-month or even a 6-month layoff? How many tough-talking, Trump-supporting trade warriors would really like to go half a year without a paycheck? What kind of long-term ripple effect will that have on the US economy?
15
Excellent points. Most Americans have very little savings to cushion emergency. It's the opposite in China. Chinese saves a lot more of their income for rainy days. It is part of the reasons why USA has a large trade deficit against China. American consumers have big appetite to buy and consume more. This means in a prolonged lose-lose trade war, Chinese can "eat bitter" and outlast the pampered Americans. Throw in the endless cycles of elections in USA and it's clear who has the stomach to persist and fight back.
1
Who gets the money from the tariffs? Is this a windfall for governments - like a tax?
4
It is exactly a tax. Tariff is simply a tax on imported goods. In fact, for most of modern history, tariffs were really a revenue-generating tool for governments, like sales tax.
7
Quite so. A tax on rural farmers while the government in US and megacorps in Brazil win, win, win.
The tariff is already impacting American farmers. Brazilian beans at Paranagua were recently getting $425 a metric ton, American beans at New Orleans about $360 to partially allow for the tariff.
In the mid to long term, Brazil can bring up to 30 million acres of cerrado pasture land into bean production. And can harvest 2 crops per year. Advantage, China.
27
Interesting to see that the unfounded paranoia about GMOs has spread to the far reaches of China.
5
It is widely said that this is also a competition between democracy and totalitarianism. Chinese totalitarianism has been highly modernized and American democracy is now a bit questionable. Can be a close match!
4
Lots of people saying how Trump is making a mistake. How do they know?
Should we just allow the trade deficit to continue climbing?
Should we allow our own debt to also continue to climb?
China has never been as powerful as it is today, therefore no one has ever lived through what this trade war will do in the end. Everyone’s opinion is pure speculation.
Not a single person out there knows how this will turn out.
The huge trade deficit we have does give us leverage.
We have MUCH less to lose than China.
Go a year or two into the future, when thousands of Chinese factories may be closing, and all the unemployment that goes along with that.
Everyone talks tough at the beginning.
In the words of Mike Tyson “Everyone has a game plan until they get punched in the mouth”
We will all get to see how this plays out, especially if Trump gets a second term.
9
Well said. But the problem is: if China is defeated, what good can America get at last?
Trade deficit with China would merely shift to trade deficit with other countries whose manufacturing costs and efficiency is better than America; Huge debt would nto be alleviated because your Trump is pouring huge into military building.
The best result you can get is merely that America lose fewer than China does. And I don't think you would prefer a powerful Trump that is able to incite massive American people unilizing his triumph, as well as a poor, chaotic, hostile while nuclear capable China as the aftermath of Trump's possible victory.
1
What you don't seem to understand is that there is the rest of the world to consider in this. What happens when Airbus and Boeing compete for the business of a Japanese airline? The steel and aluminium in the Airbus aircraft is tariff free - unlike that of the U.S. made Boeing. Boeing will be forced to either accept a lower profit margin or lose the deal. Or, they will be forced to manufacture in countries where they can get their steel and aluminium tariff free. None of those options are good for the U.S.
3
"Lots of people saying how Trump is making a mistake. How do they know?"....They listen to people who are expert in their field, read books, believe in science, demand factual information, and think.
5
Perhaps the US government should buy up most of the US soy bean crop and hold it is a strategic reserve. If that doesn’t tip China into hunger and social unrest, wait until they switch their crops to soy and dump the reserve on foreign markets to collapse the finances of the average Chinese farmer. China is a mortal enemy, and the only solution is to run them into the ground, divide, and conquer (see: Opium Wars).
11
As was quite clearly stated in the article, there are no foreign markets in which to "dump the reserve". The next largest world market is 1/20th the size of China's. Whilst the U.S. taxpayer is busy paying for this so-called "strategic reserve", the rest of the world will be happily cranking up production of soya to replace U.S. farmers in the Chinese market. Under such an approach, the U.S. will end up the proud owners of the world's most expensive decomposing soya pile!
33
QED speaks like a true Trumpian. But you know, the taste of people can change and China will buy soy form other countries too.
1
ummmmm.......do you believe that only America grows soy? Sorghum?
Think Australia.
Think Brazil.
Hope you like tofu.
1
Everyone is so scared of China, that they are suddenly going to eat our lunch in electronics, aircraft, cars, whatever.
Heavy manufacturing in China is stuck in the 1960s, according to my colleague who has been working with them for 20 years. The only high-tech industries are those built by Taiwanese businessmen, and they create the entire infrastructure - water, power, housing. All they use from the PRC is land and bodies.
This article highlights that their farming is stuck in the 1920s.
12
"Heavy manufacturing in China is stuck in the 1960s, according to my colleague"? How in the world they just christened an aircraft carrier if their manufacturing capabilities are stuck in the 60s. And what did they do back in the 60s? I believe that they did some nuclear tests.
Top revenues for 2017 according to Forbes:
1. Walmart – $485.9 billion revenue in 2017
2. State Grid Corporation of China – $315.2 billion revenue in 2017
3. Sinopec Group – $267.5 billion revenue in 2017
4. China National Petroleum Corporation – $262.6 billion revenue in 2017
5. Toyota Motor – $254.7 billion revenue in 2017
6. Volkswagen – $240.3 billion revenue in 2017
7. Royal Dutch Shell – $240 billion revenue in 2017
8. Berkshire Hathway – $223.7 billion revenue in 2017
9. Apple Inc. – $215.6 billion revenue in 2017
10. Exxon Mobil – $205 billion revenue in 2017
1
You're only as strong as your weakest link.
1
Other countries grow soybeans.
4
So we do have leverage in trade.
5
Not really. We have very strong competition in Latin America who would be GLAD to take up the slack, and if Brazil and China put in a little effort we could easily be displaced.
12
How long does it take to harvest a soybean crop? Add a few months to that time for negotiations with some African or Central American nations to grow those crops on their land, and problem solved. The question becomes, how do American farmers replace a market of the size and depth of China. Good Luck Mr. Trump, although you won't personally face the consequences of your actions (as you haven't had to most of your life), the farmers in your country don't have that option.
33
He will personally face those consequences if Americans vote Dem in 2018 and 2020.
1
I used to make my own tofu and it was fun in spite of all to work but was good in everything, one could easily learn to get hooked on it. What better thing to slap a tariff on than someone’s Achilles heel to bring them to their knees.
3
Of course, there’s always shooting yourself in the foot, as in this case.
5
There are other places in the world to grow stuff. Incentivizing them with Chinese seed money (sorry) will do lasting damage to America’s farmers. Ironically, many of whom put Trump in office. That problem will outlast Trump.
34
These tariffs could disappear in a few weeks. It takes years, and a big investment, to convert swamp or forest to plantable farm land. No one would do this until they we're absolutely sure of a long term, unbreakable commitment from buyers.
8
True, but the Chinese are willing and able to take on a challenge like this, tariffs or no tariffs, especially after being jarred out of complacency.
@RM who's talking about swamp land and forest? There's plenty of land in Brazil alone to pick up enough of the slack to shut out American soy farmers. Then there's the rest of the world.
All it takes is one crop rotation. That's months, not years.
#RIPAmericanSoyFarming
2
China placing import tariffs on basic foodstuffs it needs to feed its 1.3 billion people reminds me of the scene in Blazing Saddles where the new black sheriff holds himself hostage at gunpoint. Denying yourself food to retaliate?
If we were playing hardball with China, we would suspend all export licenses for agricultural products.
I suspect the Chinese will continue the imports at or close to the old levels. and then rebate the tariffs collected to their buyers.
12
The stuff Mel Brooks used to be able to get away with before PC. It explains why comedy today is so without humor or irony, now all just rage and four letter words.
9
As the article suggests there are plenty of other countries prepared to grow soybeans to sell to China. This is another example of the US not being as powerful as it thinks it is. It’s a big world out there.
11
Technology is a factor in Ag as well as the computer industry. There are up coming replacements for soy protein. Yellow pea powder is an up and coming commodity that might suit Chinese Native Ag better. It is a nitrogen fixture. “Clean meat” which involve lab grown animal protein is becoming a reality. This is a non GMO, cruelty free product. The Star Talk podcast had excellent coverage of this new technology last month.
China will do what it has to to become independent from the US for food. The US should concern itself with food security. America under Trump is failing in recognizing the real threats of cyber hacking, environmental degradation, and food security.
18
While soybeans are a staple in China, history has shown that one food can be replaced with another. Its not a game-changing strategic material. On the other hand, China produces around 75% or more of rare earth elements/metals. These substances are absolutely essential for computers and high-tech devices, and cannot be replaced. During a dispute with Japan, China cut off supply of rare metals, and Japan capitulated within days.
20
No, the quest to replace rare earths in any particular application is ongoing and accelerating, and there has been success. Whether possible and how long to get there is the question. Elon Musk is throwing money at replacing cobalt in Li batteries since China has a grip on 85% of earth's developed supply, and they are angling for 90% at the moment. Good luck Elon.
3
How many American have the patriotic discipline to go without the latest smart phone?
"Still, soy-producing states like Iowa and Illinois might not feel the tariffs’ impact right away. ".......Yeah, right. I sold June delivery soybeans this year for $10.50 per bu.. Today the price of soybeans for July at that same terminal is $8.36 per bu.. If you estimate that the cost of soybean production is $5.00 per bu., then the soybean farmer has already lost nearly 40% of their net income. If the China tariff continues things will only get worse, and a lot of farmers will be going out of business.
55
Well, you guys (even if not YOU, personally) put this guy in office to do exactly that. Did you think it would only impact somebody else? If Russia knows how to manipulate American politics, don’t you think China (and Europe) could see what was going on? And they didn’t have to collude (err, sorry, no collusion, cooperate) with a current campaign.
11
ah....but their profit margin remains at 67%
MauiYankee.....I am not sure that $5.00 per bu. is a correct average break even number for soybeans; but I do know that the quality of the farm land ( bu. per acre) will drive the yield irrespective of the production cost. When you consider the cost of farm equipment, the cost of farm land, and other variables remember that there are a lot of farmers already operating near the margin before the tariff. Also consider what it would mean for you and your family if you took a 40% pay cut next year.
1
I drove through farm country in Virginia this weekend and saw mostly corn, millet, and wheat where I usually saw soybeans. Looks like Virginia farmers got the memo.
8
China could easily shift soybean demand to South America, further encroaching on forests.
http://www.wri.org/blog/2018/05/forests-could-be-casualties-us-china-tra...
4
Given the world-wide production and demand for soy is not limited to China and the U.S., the real effects will be disruption in the global distribution system and downward pressure on U.S. soybean prices under the ill -advised Trump administration trade war.
8
This is no way to run an economy. A Trade War may be Trump's modus operandi, but everyone suffers but the fat cats supporting this president. Behind the scenes negotiations to even out trade imbalances should be the way to go. But we have a reality TV clown in charge and this is what we get. So sad!!!!!
16
"Trade war will harm U.S. farmers in the years to come" could be a more fitting title for your piece.
15
The exact same story applies to American producers who rely on Chinese supply chain. It's impossible to replace Chinese supplies in a near term, they either have to swallow the cost or go out of business. They can try to replace them in the long term, but other countries can't match the Chinese productivity, so the price will have to go up and stay there.
Trade war is not good nor easy to win. It hurts everybody both in short and long term.
15
In a struggle between Chinese farmers not growing enough soybeans and American farmers not making enough money, my bet on who can better weather the problems created would be China.
5
Where is China getting seed for its soybean crop? Has it developed varieties suited to its own soil conditions and growing seasons? Are varieties being developed in a traditional sense, or are genetics being modified? Or are they buying for multinationals like Monsanto and Syngenta? China is apparently behind on crop seed development. Questions are how far, and what direction should they go in?
2
China will buy more soybeans from Brazil, and to meet the increased demand, Brazil will cut down more of their rain forest.
5
Fascinating. Their own misinformation about GMOs holds them back. It's curious how they can buy astonishing amounts of US soybeans while simultaneously thinking it's causing the collapse of soil. How do they keep this contradictory information in their heads?
But it looks like Russia will step in to help them out. Way to go, Donald.
3
If you dare believe that The Don is beholden to Putin, then his actions are easily understood. The only question remained is: Is he only beholden to Putin or is he in fact a Manchurian president?
5
Major soybean growers by MMT:
Ukraine (3.9 million metric tons) ...
Canada (6.0 million metric tons) ...
Paraguay (10.0 million metric tons) ...
India (10.5 million metric tons) ...
China (12.2 million metric tons) ...
Argentina (53.4 million metric tons) ...
Brazil (86.8 million metric tons) ...
USA (108.0 million metric tons)
13
Very good. You do know that if you are googling soybean stuff like I do, some people are going to think we are pretty werid. But never mind, Bloomberg sites are covering the soybean wars and soil Business Insider (nice interactive charts on USA-USA-USA soybean prices).
A couple points for all of us that have learned to care about soybeans:
Uruguay in 2006 grew 3 million tons and Bolivia is growing 3 million tons. Uruguay-Argentina-Brazil are dealing with a drought, there is that.
The Latin American axis of soybeans has a different growing season than USA-Canada. In normal times China’s ravenous appetite for soy beans meant that China would rotate shipments from one axis to another as the harvest changes. Now that rotation may be upended someday but not this year.
And this year the rest of the world see USA soybeans are at fire sale prices so the rest of the world will buy the USA Soybean crop.
So...the planet soybean world is going to be disrupted but it will adjust.
So... I do not think China can inflict much pain through soybeans.
So..China will eventually have to consider other weapons.
China currently has monopoly on rare earth metals (google Jeff Spross on that-Yeah I need to go to the beach). China could disrupt the computer and battery industry but it is complicated.
Next up, China could start selling off its inventory if USA Treasury bonds which could send interest rates soaring but that is complicated.
Next up, harass US companies/boycott US goods....
5
And what's more, Canola is a fine substitute, which no doubt the canola council will immediately start marketing. In Canada last year total production was 3 million tonnes of canola oil and 4 million tonnes of canola meal annually.
We do enjoy eating the Republicans' lunch.!
3
Major, be prepared now to get every form of targeted tofu ad from every vegan selling company in the world for the next couple of weeks and ask yourself was that really worth showing off knowing.
1
This article misses the point of the tariffs on soybeans, indeed, the reason for most tariffs. China is aggressively industrializing its agriculture and using tariffs to generate a protected market for local production during this transition. Peasants are being pressed to consolidate their holdings, agricultural research units are closely examining factory farming in other nations, Chinese scientific units are looking a genetic modifications to increase productivity, etc. A lot of government resources are going into these efforts.
The result is likely that prices may rise initially for China, but within a relatively short time large efficient domestic soy bean producers will match or exceed American productivity, bringing prices down. When that happens, American soy bean producers will find themselves shut out of the China market even if tariff barriers come down. The author needs a long time frame to understand how China will benefit from these tariffs, and result in a medium and long-term loss of a huge market for American producers.
27
The Chinese are doing this as a retaliatory response to US tariffs. It's not part of an agro-industrial policy to increase soy production at home. In fact, I don't believe China is imposing tariffs on Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, so tariffs on the US alone would do virtually nothing to improve production efficiency in China.
2
China has been investing heavily in industrialization of its agriculture for a decade. Most of the information on these practices is deep in trade and scientific journals that most people do not read. In all likelihood China would prefer for the transition to domestic production to happen more slowly than it will have to now, but it is positioned well to increase its investment in the research units and agricultural development units already in place. The soybean tariffs will speed this development along, and will indeed help this process by allowing the units producing soybeans to access to the market. Even if this transition is eased by increasing imports from other countries, American farmers are the ones who will end up on the losing end as their markets in China go away -- permanently.
Surplus American soybean, make environmentally unfriendly ethanol out of them. We'll just keep increasing ethanol in our gas causing more engine problems, expense and taxpayer subsidize private farming. Privatize the profits; socialize the losses.
It's one thing to WANT a Harley-Davidson motorcycle for enjoyment and touring pleasure, however, it's quite another matter to NEED farm goods such a soybeans in order to survive.
2
And US farmers need markets in order to survive. That's how trade works.
10
China has just under 15% of the worlds farmland but almost 25% of the worlds population. Look at the numbers give or take you have well over 1.3 billion people that must be fed. The arable land available right now in China cannot do that. Realistically this part of the so called trade war has already been won by Trump.
2
Your analysis is truly worthy of a Trump supporter, clear, simple, and wrong. It assumes that China's only source of crops is itself. There are many other countries in the world with arable land who can supply China's needs. That is what foreign trade is .
48
Yes, Marian, Trump has won this the way he won the D.P.R.K. negotiations. Why don't you wait to see how the results of the tariffs play out? Wouldn't that be reasonable? It's all far more complex than your reasoning.
You wouldn't pay a contractor in full before he started work on your house, would you? I know, I know, Trump and his Fox Noise have that effect on his supporters.
4
Your headline for the story with the tractor cab pic has a caption stating Fu is “plowing” a soybean field last week. While I’m no farmer I cant imagine plowing a soybean field in mid-summer. Dude, google “cultivate”.
4
I've been across Heilongjiang and Liaoning by car and by train. It seems that everywhere you go, any available potentially arable land is planted with corn. Small pieces of land next to roadsides, on hills, places where farm machinery would be useless and where there is no access to irrigation, tended by small farmers trying to eek out a living. Even where there are large plots under cultivation, I see farmers using mules (which are later consumed as the meat is considered a delicacy). It is a far, far cry from the industrialized agriculture that we practice here. China will wind up buying up farming rights in other countries for years to come, just as large multinationals in the West do, such as brewers, to guarantee consistent output at set prices.
8
So what's to keep another country from buying America's discounted soybeans then sell them to China at the regular price.
2
Brazil is already doing that and making money.
2
Probably a general dislike of America around the world due to Trump, and the willingness to not even throw THAT lifeline to Trump's base.
3
The article seems to assume that the rest of the world produces no soybeans, but that is far from true. The biggest of the other exporters in Brazil. In fact, Brazilian farmers saw this coming and started expanding their plantings earlier this year.
They are also buying US soybeans at the great discount the trade war creates ($7.80), and selling them to other customers at the Brazil price ($10).
The competition is smart and well-informed.
65
"... In front of the cooperative’s office is a yard full of bright-green John Deere farm machines, which Mr. Hou buys with the help of government subsidies. Chinese machinery is cheaper but more prone to breakdowns, he says...."
These two sentences are a strong advertisement for Deere & Company which should drive up their stock price.
1
What a great opportunity to reduce the country's dependence on one crop (soy) and diversify the produce. Monoculture on American farms has been depleting soil quality on the 100 acre farms for a long time now, given the corn and soybean subsidies and the powerful lobby that ensures that they stay in place. It has been remedied by using copious amounts of fertilizers and pesticides so that the soy keeps flowing. However, the ground water contamination, the ubiquity of corn or soy in most American food, and the health consequences that come with consuming these pesticide-heavy crops is a price the US will have to reckon with in the years to come.
Glad to read about the farm cooperatives that encourage crop rotation to keep the soil healthy. The US' current shortsightedness on the issue might appease Trump voters in the Midwest, but they will have to answer their grandchildren when they ask them why the water that they pump up tastes so much like glyphosate.
5
Abhishek ......Please take the time to inform yourself about farms and farming. Among your many errors is your assumption that glyphosate gets into the water supply. As anyone can see by driving through farm country, the road side ditches just a few feet from the corn and soybean fields are full of weeds, meaning the glyphosate stayed where it was applied. Glyphosate is tightly soil bound and decomposed by soil bacteria; it doesn't drift. Contrary to your statement, soils in the farm belt are not depleted, GPS is widely used for applying fertilizer using minimal amounts, and crops have been routinely rotated for at least 60 years. Farmers know a lot more more about farming then you do, and they are not nearly as dumb as you imagine.
8
Monsanto grows plenty of soybeans in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. I'm sure they won't have any problem wiping out more of the rain forest to meet Chinese demand.
And when they do more American farmers can apply for food stamps. They might want to reconsider that work requirement for eligibility though.
69
Brazilian and Paraguayan soy is grown deep in the interior of the continent, with little river or rail transport. The crop must be taken to port by diesel truck, which adds to the cost and puts somewhat of a cap on production. Within immense capital and technology resources on the Chinese side and bounteous agricultural resources on the South American side, start looking for China to extend its One Belt, One Road initiative right into America's neglected back yard.
8
I have no sympathy for the farmers who voted for Trump, especially if their livelihood is destroyed because of his policies. However, I must explain to you that Argentina does not destroy rain forests in order to grow anything.We have some of the best land to grow crops in the world. no need to cut down any trees
3
I found this article to be... rahrah, for us, they need us more than we need them, and we can do whatever we want.
Not true. The world is evolving on a logarithmic scale. China has shown itself to be utterly resilient in the 70 years since the Revolution. They have a long plan, and have had one for 70 years. Trump seems to have a plan that lasts until maybe.. tonight... maybe tomorrow... 'we'll see'.
Here is some food for thought for Americans about the dairy tariffs other nations have targeted.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/09/trump-trade-war-american...
Trump picked this fight. I think you will all lose.
Maybe you will change your mind about these fights in November?
4
MAGA! Go President Trump!
It's about time we even the playing field.
The trade deficit with China must be brought under control.
1
Keep telling yourself that as your state takes the hit.
3
Oh, gawd, oh, please, don’t take away my soy sauce!!!!!
If Jasmine rice is next on the hit list, it’ll be more than I can stand....
Canada is having record soybean production for a second year. I am sure they would be happy to work out new trade agreement to increase their exports to China. Everyone wins!!
45
Canada produces about 6 MMT (Million Metric Tons), while the USA produces 106 MMT. I'm sure Canada's production will take the place of the USA.
1
And don't forget the suitable substitute ..Canola. Canada produces 3 million tonnes of canola oil and 4 million tonnes of canola meal annually. LOL
2
Although you say U.S. soybean producers "could take a hit," you fail to realize they already have been hurt deeply and they suffer more each day this ruinous trade manipulation continues. Farmers need to be selling significant percentages of expected production throughout the growing season on futures contracts. This usually begins even before they have planted their crops in the spring. I grew up on a family farm in Nebraska and still am involved in its operations. (Each year, about half of our acres are planted in soybeans.) Commodity prices already were trapped in a low cycle before Trump's disastrous trade moves. Farmers know how to deal with the usual ebb and flow that comes with such a long-range economic pursuit like farming. But then came the trade war that Trump says he wanted. Farmers now face these perilous conditions: Rising interest rates, decreasing land values because of falling commodity prices, and higher equipment costs and operating expenses because of other non-farm tariff threats by Trump. Our foreign grain markets, including but not limited to China, have taken decades to develop. All that work is being undone daily by Trump. The short-sighted focus of your story fails to take that into account -- just as it appears the Trump administration has failed to truly understand the very nature of our farm economy or how rural America is affected by his actions. Shame.
74
But most of the farm belt voted for Trump ad to this day they actually agree with Trump's trade policy. Perhaps the soy farmers are truly patriotic (in their own mind) and willing to put their livelihood online for their political cause. For this, I have to admire them, even if it is a conviction full of ignorance and misplaced loyalty.
1
Great. While we let our farmers ruin the land to feed the world, the rest of world rotates crops to protect their soil. Maybe something good will come out of Trump's trade war after all.
23
I agree with most of what you are saying. Most soybeans in the U.S. are a winter crop, rotated with corn in states like Iowa. So we rotate, too. But the big problem is the amount of chemicals we use, both fertilizers that have destroyed aquatic life in major rivers like the Mississippi, and herbicides like glyphosates. Some use of chemicals is acceptable--that's just the world we live in--but the addiction to heavy use of fertilizers and pesticides is killing us in the long run. I hope the Chinese don't lose that inherent suspicion of those things.
7
What makes you think America's farmers don't protect their land and follow the best practices? They do and they do it better than any other country.
7
. "While we let our farmers ruin the land to feed the world, the rest of world rotates crops to protect their soil.".....I have been associated with farming in the Midwest all my life. I have never known a time when farmers did not rotate their crops. The Midwest soils are not depleted. There are problems and issues - mono culture which can be ameliorated by planting native flora in roadsides, water ways, creek banks and back yards; but the bigger problem is nitrogen run off. You need to be more careful what you claim as farmers are way ahead of you in dealing with relevant issues.
5