Payrolls, yes, but not pay.
4
More smoke and mirrors of a government that is bragging about an exonomy that creates mostly low paying and part time jobs.
2
Trump is claiming responsibility for the economy that started recovering long before he was ever in office. He seems determined to trigger another recession with his ignorance. I only hope it happens before the midterms.
A 2.7% increase to a low wage, is still a low wage. You cannot overcome decades of wage stagnation over a short period of time. Stimulus steam will run out. The deficit is going to kill it all.
1
AKA, I can't believe how great Trump is.
Right! But how may people lost there job?
And how may of the so call'ed job's can you live on?
They never tell you that stuff.
Just saying..
3
Thank you, President Trump for adding 213,000 jobs to the economy.
2
The pendulum swings....Obama created this, no Trump did. The majority arent seeing and experiencing this supposed “recovery” and booming economy. Raise your hand if you or someone you knew “bought a new car in June” (as per article) to celebrate all the abundance raining down from the economy. Yeah i dont know anyone either. The media and govt can only keep the lie going for so long. Or maybe this is the new normal. Although all us peons are still needed to buy and consume. And if we cant afford to buy anything except necessities like food, clothing, shelter....uh-oh....Something has gotta give and it will, eventually. It wont be pretty.
4
What's not being mentioned pretty much anywhere are those in the creative/media industries who find an increasingly difficult landscape for both experienced and entry level applicants. Ageism exists yet no economist fails to mention it. Companies are shifting their resources to hiring younger applicants at lower salaries that won't be a health risk in the near future. Health insurance premims are being shouldered more and more by the employee and the gig and freelance economy (especially in the creative/media worlds) are becoming more common threatening middle class families and the like.
8
This article is incomplete. The questions that need to be answered is what jobs are being filled. What is the base pay for those jobs. Where are these new jobs located. What is the cost of living where these jobs are being filled. And what is the longevity of these jobs. This needs to be reported in order to give a fair and accurate picture of the American economy. But I think its proper to say that what has been left out of this article is are these or are they not....good jobs. Because from my stand point of my small business, and taking the long view of the past and present economy, I believe we are on the cusp of another recession.
5
I ask, how many job seekers are no longer seeking a job due to the stagnation in wages?
Yes, I know that is not an indicator in the statistical skew of the report, but, it is noteworthy.
1
Commenters are naive thinking that job growth, saving coal, saving the auto industry, etc., is pertinent to what is happening with our chaotic administration. The whole plan (if there is indeed a plan) is for the whole economy to fall apart. Chaos is the plan. Face it. Then you will see that Trumpsky and Putinsky are not just sympathetic, but collaborators.
6
Wow, this lengthy article on the economy, full of facts and figures, yet NOT ONE mention of 2 key indicators that were ALWAYS reported on during the Obama years:
the labor force participation rate.
U6, often referred to under Obama as the "true" unemployment rate.
Why is that? Why are these two key indicators no longer mentioned in articles on the state of the economy since Trump became president?
13
Paul, there is a simple answer to your question, a question that I often asked myself, why are those two key indicators missing. Well, Obama was a failure in the eyes of many regardless of his handling the Great Recession. There was always the desire to insure Obama appeared to be a failure.
Second, Trump is a person that would cut one off at the knees if that person was to in any way dishonor him, and, Trump is a, well, Republican, such as that may be. And Trump is a real failure and there is no desire to reinforce that knowledge.
1
If the oligarchs were willing to keep less for themselves and their shareholders the actual producers of profit might benefit.
9
Thanks exclusively to GOP policies, if you work 40 hours a week at minimum wage you're living in poverty. It's a great time to be a business owner, a landlord, a corporate CEO, a banker, and in particular, a real estate developer like Mr. Trump (since the new tax law carved out special tax breaks just for them alone).
Real wages haven't increased in decades.
By all means, enjoy the glowing report, because if Trump is on track to mimic Bush's economic successes it may be the last positive one before the "easy to win" trade war really kicks in and we start shedding hundreds of thousand of jobs a month.
Left unchecked, the Dow will be under 10,000 before Trump leaves office, or is thrown in jail where he belongs.
16
You sound like the folks that predicted a stock market crash if Trump won the election.
1
June numbers tend to be high due to part time summer work. Is this really a terrific number. When you look at the graphs Trumps numbers are not that spectacular. Total yearly number will be behind Obama's.
5
Drive through the underbelly of every city, large, small and in-between, take a good hard look at the millions of impoverished people and then tell that we are the premier economy on Earth.
16
Reading these comments it is easy to see what side of the aisle has embraced denial of reality! Ford the self proclaimed "party of science and rationality" the Democrats sound like anti science partisans who must deny the truth at all costs lest it burst their flawed world view.
Trump derangement syndrome is an insidious disease as it seeps in and imperceptibly warps one's reason so that reality becomes unknowable. Sad really.
13
Should we behave like FOX and declare Trump our savior almighty. Sorry look at the numbers they are good but definitely not spectacular. Reality Trump so far is continuing a trend that began years before the Trump. This definitely is not a transformation economy or a economic miracle of the Trump or his policies. In fact it is just a continuation of the Obama Economy. Look at the numbers and graphs. That is real science and would be the rational thing to do. Sorry if FOX lied to you, it is what they do, but the economy didn't suddenly change at Trumps inaugural. It was years in the making,
4
Guanna, many have little understanding of the lag in the economic indicators. Many were jumping on the wagon to blame Obama for Bush's recession.
But, that is what happens when one turns to Fox "News" and their gaggle of entertainers for their post-high school education.
Jobs that pay what, $10.00 an hour at best!
5
Well, Trump would call that a fine endeavor for a career. I provides for much upward mobility and future advancement...
In reply to Jacquie Iowa
If I were eighteen again, I would take one.
It’s like we’ve borrowed a million dollars from our bank and now we’re running around screaming, “I’m rich, I’m rich!”
11
Scary scary scary....the higher it goes the further it falls....does anybody besides me foresee blue Monday & black Tuesday.....
6
I understand that Democrats have a difficult time granting President Trump credit for this economic miracle due to their hatred for other aspects of Trumpism.
Liberals will say "look unemployment dropped starting under Obama!" - this is true but it is easier to lower unemployment levels when you are coming right out of a recession. The fact that Trump has kept the trend going this many years AFTER the recession is due to his economic genius.
It's also quite clear from these charts that Trump has had a much greater affect on wage growth vs Obama. The tax cuts have stimulated our economy. Just the beginning !
10
Sorry you can't shake the FOX lie that there is a Trump economic miracle Look at the number for the most part it is a continuation of Obama's economy. Trump can be credited for bumps in the stock market and consumer and business confidence. But I remind you those are extremely mercurial barometers of the economy. But go ahead and mesmerize yourself with FOX NOISE.
4
why is it easier? You need, first, outcome the recession and then increase the employment while the industry are still weak. It is much easier to ride on the good trend. It is difference between starting the movement and jump on the moving platform while it is going downhill.
3
Gordon, there is a lag in the economic indicators, we are still recovering from the recession and the grifter from Queens did not keep any trend going.
The Obama growth is still being seen, and sadly many Trump disciples fail to see this.
Lastly, when the reality of the trade wars and the fallout hits with job losses, increased prices, less disposable income which results in job losses, and all of the other issues we will see, will you still heap high praise on the person who successfully hoodwinked millions while picking their pockets?
2
200,000 or so jobs is nothing to crow about. This is not a bit better than his predecessor. This is going the way of Clinton into Bush, jr.. We can expect the economy to tank after a Democrat righted it. Now within a year or so we can expect a collapse because no real knowledgeable adult is in charge. Even the stock market is beginning to show signs of uncertainty. Hold on to your house values. Flight to safety on its way.
5
I have traveled across the country several times over the last 6 months and I commonly see signs at fast food joints offering $15/hr plus bonus for new workers. That is certainly a significant increase over the recent past.
This is nearly unalloyed good news and Trump gets much of the credit. He, single handed, increased confidence with his positive attitude projected from the bully pulpit and that leads to increased business activity and more hiring. Bringing discouraged workers back into the labor force is some of the best news we can get and talk of 4 to 5% growth was thought unthinkable before Trump.
For all the caterwauling by the out of power left, Trump is good for the country!
9
Yes, anybody who looks at facts and figures is merely "caterwauling;" after all, it's much easier to rechant FOX's nonsense about leftist neurosis and girlyman iness than it is to deal with figures and facts.
By the way, when ol' TR said that the Presidency was a "bully," pulpit, he meant "a good pulpit," not a, "a weapon I get to throw at my fellow Americans every time I get my knickers in a twist or want something."
Oh, well. Trumpists never know that the Gadsden Flag was a symbol of national unity or the real words to the Pledge, either. Or explain how all of a sudden, they got to trustng wht the BLS tells them.
4
Do you think that is because of Trump? I suspect those were in states with 14 dollar minimum wages. By the way so far we are not even on target for 3% yearly growth don't get too eager for 4 or 5%.
2
I don't know what you saw, but according to statistics the growth of wages is about 2.7% in background of inflation 2.5%. These ads must be there before you just preferred not to see them
1
Seems like the improving economy is the only thing left by the Obama administration that DJT is not bent on destroying, rolling back, blaming.
But wait, there are the trade wars - no NAFTA, no TPP ; now tariffs.
Stay tuned for the next 3-6 months to see how DJT implodes.
9
There are plenty of jobs that pays below the living wages. We are creating a new class, viz., living in poverty while working. During the 2008 deep recession, employers developed the habit of paying less and get more work done. So, they keep low wage job openings until someone desperate comes along. The available jobs are not really needed to effect profits or growth. For example, some one want their house painted, but it is not urgent, so he keep looking until some one comes along to paint at the price He wants to pay. So, the job openings are not real job openings that reflect the economic growth. Just fake jobs.
5
Seventy percent of adults in the U.S. have no more than $1,000 in savings (34 percent have zero).
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/19/heres-how-many-americans-have-nothing-at...
Wages are not increasing. Housing costs have skyrocketed, along with health care.
The standard of living has declined-- please do more than parrot meaningless indicators of the job market. What good is being employed if you do not earn enough to take care of your family?
11
Agreed - Obama severely harmed the ability of our economy to recover and, yes, we still have lots of folks in bad shape, as you note above.
That said, it certainly looks like much of that harm is now healing and hopefully things will improve for everyone.
5
Dear Prof,
What is your learned opinion on the trade wars and the impact on our economy? If the wars adversely affect the income and buying power then the healing will be reversed and the wound will fester.
Who then will be blamed? Can't blame the cause of the carnage, the grifter from Queens, as he is the coronated savior of the country.
Professor care to enlightens on your opinions. Extraordinary statement require extraordinary facts to support them.
This is becoming tiresome. There is a split from reality regarding what's being reported by the government (and subsequently media). Why don't or can't journalists/news media include real-world data regarding labor statistics? The Labor Department numbers are incomplete without the addition of context, the lack of which makes their releases seem more like propaganda (for the masses and market manipulators), which I believe is the true intent behind these ridiculous numbers.
Please tell us Ms. Barrera et al, which employers are hiring people over the age of 30-35 (full-time with benefits and a real-world salary) who have been out of the workforce for more than a few months?
Again:
1. People over the age of 40 are not being hired, and over 50 are being "retired"
2. People are working part-time, 1-3 jobs
3. People aren't getting raise, wages/salaries have been stagnant for decades
4. Pensions are disappearing, benefits are disappearing (and can barely be called benefits at this point)
5. Taxes on imiddle American incomes are a disproportionate burden compared with those in the top quartile
6. People have stopped looking and are no longer being counted in the statistics
7. No one will hire anyone who has been out of the labor force or job market for longer than a day or two, let alone months to years.
15
The United States economy, just like the natural environment, is never given enough credit to heal thyself.
Ironically, this is exactly what I what I was told by an oil executive when asked about his opinion regarding the Deepwater Horizon spill.
4
You are absolutely correct.
What is crude oil?
It is an organic composition of carbon.
Once the light carbons were agitated by the wind waves and the specific gravity became greater than one, the inert solid masses just sank to the bottom of the Gulf.
The heavy constituents are really no different than cured, solid roofing tar. I am an engineer who worked for a multinational engineering-construction firm with lots of expertise in the construction of oil and nuclear power plant facilities.
1
Yes and marine life thrives on roofing tar. meanwhile to=he volatile carcinogens make it up the food chain. P.S TELL THAT TO ALL THE DEAD BIRDS AND FISH.
There are certainly more jobs available, many f my friends already have 3
8
I find it amazing that of all the things that could be said about this positive economic news, many readers first thought is to be critical of it lest there might be even a smidgen of credit given to the Trump administration for anything, whatsoever.
Sorry, folks, I know it tortures you, but the economy is going gangbusters. To those who claim that Obama should get all the credit, then he too should get the blame for, as one of the most popular comments stated, "the average hourly wage earners need two or three jobs to pay rent, food and energy bills; you can forget about insurance or savings". Can't have it both ways.
I cynically suspect that those with the most critical comments would be secretly, if not openly gleefull had the economic news been bad. No matter if bad news means more people unemployed or businesses closing. At least then you could blame it on Trump. After all, that's what Bill Maher said. Who cares about the human cost when you could score political points.
12
Of course the economy is doing great. We were on an upswing and then we injected the economy with some tax cuts. But those will be short term gains. When the bubble bursts (thanks to Trump’s trade wars etc) we will not have tax cuts to use as a tool to bolster the economy. It’ll be a mess. And this is not just my opinion but what all the economists are saying.
I know, I must be crazy; I trust those most educated on the subject.
13
Sorry, snowflake, but nobody cares what you have to say. Womp womp!
When the bubble burst because of Trump deficits we will be in a more difficult position to fight recession with increase government spending. In addition the GOP will instantly become fiscal hawks.
Where is the state tax revenue chart? With all this money being made, along with Trump's tax cuts, state coffers should be brimming with really useful and important cash: money desperately needed for education, infrastructure, and more.
6
Living wage jobs or McJobs? Tired of these headlines about how low unemployment is and how great the economy is, when income inequality is soaring and affordable housing is disappearing.
13
Wages have been dead in the water for years, while the cost of living in every arena explodes upward. We need a new metric for determining the health of our economy beyond simple hiring numbers. The hiring may be up, but that's no indicator that quality of life is rising. In fact, for anyone not already wealthy, or beneficiaries of stock dividends, quality of life is actually eroding.
13
Isn't it interesting why we care about other people's economy? Mine is great actually, but I earned every penny...I didn't sit around and ask congress or the president (past or present) to find me a job.
If you don't have a job, whose fault is that?
If you spent your money on an iPhone, and now are hungry, is that my issue?
I care about fellow Americans, but I can't control how you decide to spend your money, therefore my original question: why do you care about my economy?
1
"why do you care about my economy?"
Because people spend their incomes primarily on things other people produce. People who are doing well pay taxes that in part support people who are not.
Most of my work ends up paying for goods and services others make. Fortunately enough people directly or indirectly buy the products I help design to fund my paycheck. Like most people my job has a narrow focus, and most of what I need (clothes, dish soap, paper towels) are made by someone else performing their narrow focus.
So, to answer your question, I care about how others are doing because they fund my paycheck when they are doing well, and my taxes from my check help support them when they are not.
if they stop buying my stuff, I won't have money to buy theirs and so on until the economy collapses.
John
10
Thank you President Obama!
6
What specifically did Obama do that resulted in wages rising, low unemployment, high GDP growth after he left office (other than leaving office).
Obama's signature legislation, the affordable care act did not live up to promises in part because costs rose rather than dropping $2500/family.
My personal guess is the recovery is due largely to corporate tax cuts, personal tax cuts of regulatory fat, both making U. S. operations more profitable.
7
Amazing, given that the recovery began about 2010.
2
It is a very personal guess. very. s folks remind you the recovery began in 2010. Of course the extra trillion in debt Trumps is creating will of course help thing along for a year or so until the bill collector arrives. Funny hove the GOP has forgotten about deficits now that the GOP is in charge and spending during boom times like a drunken sailor.
Thank you Pres. Obama.
10
That’s good news for the most part. It’d be nice if wages started increasing faster. The real question, though, is what this report will look like around Election Day as the President’s trade war takes effect.
1
Trump supporters are trying to play up the jobs report as better than it actually is on the whole. At best, wages are stagnant relative to inflation, and consumer confidence is not rising. I read about how $117,000 for a family of four in the San Francisco Bay Area is now considered poor, and I believe it.
Anecdotal evidence: in my neighborhood in New Hampshire, condos are selling at 10-15% losses over their market value 10 years ago. Yes, 10 years and still not recovered to pre-recession values. Some potential buyers can't even get pre-qualified for a loan. These are not expensive properties by any means. I hear about how hot the real estate market has been but I'm not seeing it outside of a few localized hot spots. It's an indication that all is not as well with the economy as some would want you to believe.
3
Don't take these numbers seriously. Here's how it really works, has for decades now, no matter who is in charge:
Say you lose your $32/hr factory job because the place closes or moves to China or India.
In order to pay the rent, put food on the table and clothes on your children, in desperation you take two $15/hr jobs and work 16-18 hours a day and still don't have what you had before. And now you have to pay someone to watch your kids while you're at that second job.
According to the government, this is not only NOT a problem, but in fact THREE new jobs have been created - your two, plus the child care person!
The government lies about everything, and jobs and unemployment are no exception.
24
It is funny, I keep hearing about the booming economy, how jobs are plentiful, how the country is doing great...but something is missing.Obama left office in January, 2017 and the unemployment rate was 4.9%. By april of 2017 (3 months after Trump came into the office, a period where he and his administration were focused on gutting ACA and of course executive orders to discriminate against LGBT people and otherwise please his dumb as dirt base), it was 4.4% which only Fox News could attribute to Trump (no economist, right or left, would do that;Larry Kudlow would, but he is a tv talking head version of an economist, not a real one). So basically the unemployment rate has dipped .5% under Trump, which is good, but wages have grown modestly at best, and below inflation.
So if it is a boom, where is it? Are people now able to have one job with benefits that can pay the bills, or are they still struggling? If these new jobs were jobs with good wages, you would expect to see pay going up, but it isn't. More importantly, not only is pay going up very little, but to compensate employers are getting rid of benefits to pay for it, so a worker might see another 50c an hour in wages, but lose health insurance coverage or get no vacation time. As Reagan told voters "do you feel better off now then you did before?".
13
From the comments I understand that there is really no good news here and it's all due to President Obama anyways.
7
Commenting on OTHER COMMENTS? Too meta, which is to say off topic.
1
As I read this headline about U.S. hiring staying strong in June I can't help but think of our fellow citizens now living in the new tents cities that have sprung up in our towns large and small across America. They may not be familiar with the lyric from an old county song " We Live in Two Different Worlds Dear" but I'll bet my bottom dollar the lyric would ring true with OUR newly Homeless Americans.
3
Can someone explain this statement:
Unemployment rose to 4 percent as more Americans joined the labor force.
How does unemployment rise if there are more people employed than before?
1
More people join the labor force; therefore there are more people looking for work. So, simultaneously there are more people employed AND more people looking for work. Imagine (hypothetically) 38,000 people unemployed in a labor force of 1,000,000. This would be an unemployment rate of 3.8%. Now imagine the labor force increases by 50,000. Let's say 45,000 of those people find jobs, and 5,000 are newly looking. You now have 43,000 people unemployed, with a labor force of 1,050,000 -- an unemployment rate of 4.1%.
1
The Obama recovery continues. Watch trump destroy the climb in stock prices.
11
He already has.
Oh, gawd, a few more votes for you-know-who....!!!!!!
2
Bad news for Democrats.
10
How do you figure? Bad news for Democrats? Seriously? Democrats had nothing to do with tariffs or ensuing Trade war. That is like a no brainer!
7
If it was October it might be.
1
Trump is so bad his reputation is falling even in a strong economy. It is the Trump, not the economy that will doom his second term.
Try as they might, the corporate-media continues to try to convince us that the economy is strong - while 80% of the public has yet to feel any economic recovery.
https://politicsmaven.io/theintellectualist/news/study-by-mit-economist-...
The liberal elite, a group that comprises most of the fortunate 20%, refuse to recognize the reality of two separate and unequal economies. They continue to support a political party that now only pays lip service to the harsh economic inequality responsible for the nation's economic malaise.
They imagine that the Democratic party still maintains its traditional advocacy for the working class, but when you demand recent examples of this alleged advocacy, they struggle - or they argue that the Democrats would if they could, not realizing that it is the party's abandonment of working people that has left the party powerless.
And this is the more liberal of the two parties, which indicates that, absent any reform of the hapless Democratic Party, things will only get worse.
8
Well, President Trump, you were wrong about one thing.... I'm NOT getting tired of winning.
9
Winning what? Low wage employment? Having to take 2 or 3 jobs to make ends meet? Please get a clue...
17
OH joy!! More under-employed people that are working at temporary or part-time jobs that offer zero stability and even less benefits!!
17
Thanks President Obama???
5
The economy continues to improve, but at a slower rate than the latter part of the Obama administration for the most part. We had recovered to pre-recession (late 2007) levels for the variables below by the dates indicated and have continued into record territory since:
Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP: Q3 2011
Household net worth: Q4 2012
Real GDP per capita: Q4 2013
Jobs: May 2014
Full time employment: August 2015
Unemployment (U-3): May 2016
Unemployment (U-6): May 2017
One of the few variables that isn't better than pre-crisis is labor force participation for the prime working age group (25-54), which has been improving since the trough in July 2015 but is still 1.5 percentage points below the pre-crisis level of 83.3.
Things that are worse due to Trump:
1. Debt addition trajectory for 2018-2027 is $4.3 trillion or 50% higher (CBO April 2018 alternate baseline) than the January 2017 Obama baseline, about $34,000 per family. We're looking at a $13.7 trillion increase over the next decade vs. $9.4 trillion under Obama policy, mainly due to tax cuts.
2. Health insurance coverage trajectory is about 7 million worse (+25%) by 2026 (CBO 2018 vs. 2016 estimates). About 3-4 million have lost health insurance so far.
6
"As the jobless rate falls, employers’ complaints about their inability to find qualified, reliable workers mount." The problem with this is this leaves out a very telling statement "at the wages and total compensation we are willing to pay". Working in the tech industry, we have heard from the likes of Microsoft that jobs are going unfilled, and using that as a reason to double or triple the number of H1B visas each year, and what that translates to "we can't get workers in the US willing to take what we want to pay, so give us Visa workers we can pay what we want and they will gladly accept it".
If in fact there are jobs going unfilled, if the economy is booming and they need to hire to meet demand, wages should be going up, but they aren't. Why? Basically, most of these companies are public companies and they are afraid if they should increased labor costs the stock analysts will see this and give the stock a "sell" rating (stock analysts, of course, being one class of employees who have done very well, I guess their income rise is a good thing). The lack of wages proves what economists have been saying, that the tax cut primarily is going to feed the incomes of the well off and rich investors, and while it may trigger increases in hiring it is unlikely to generate the kind of wage increases that will translate into well paying jobs, it will instead cause hiring at the depressed levels that happened during the recession.
11
There was a time when employers actually trained (and continued to develop) their employees (both at blue and white collar jobs) and didn't expect someone to have a master's degree in business to be an entry-level salesperson or administrativr assistance. The lie that employers can't find workers or qualified workers is an excuse to bring in cheap h1b foreign workers or offshore / outsource to third worlds. This is all d one for the sole purpose of taking more gains for themselves, their boards and stockholders.
4
The labor force participation rate is the lowest it has been since 1978. So while the unemployment rate is low for those actively seeking work, the percentage of people seeking work is still down. The effect of the Great Recession--low wages, few benefits, longer hours, and new job creation mostly being in low-skill service industries--has resulted in fewer unemployed people trying to reenter the job market. That is still a major drag on the economy.
Strange how LFPR was a major point of emphasis during Trump's campaign, but has never been mentioned since. All of Trump's "forgotten Americans" haven't gone back to work. Quite the opposite, actually.
4
But maybe, just maybe, with the rise in jobs and in the unemployment rate, the LFPR trend is reversing.
But it’s not...
What do these numbers mean in terms of their overall effect on the American lower-middle-class where Trump draws so much of his political support? Are more people being employed who are also making a living-or-better wage? What can they afford for their families in terms of education and health care?
Trump's public persona takes dominion everywhere and much of what occupies the daily news cycle focuses on his behavior and tweets. How do political opponents penetrate that noise with a clear message and what should that message be? Do people really feel more secure in their jobs and their homes? How do they see the future--their personal future and the future of their children--under Trump in two years? In six?
5
The new Democratic slogan: more jobs is bad news.
19
Nope, the Democratic mantra is that more jobs that don't pay a living wage is no bargain, worse, jobs without benefits. So Walmart raises their minimum pay scale and to offset that, cuts jobs, cuts hours so among other things, they don't have to pay health insurance. More importantly, how many of these new jobs are hired as contractors (no benefits?). How many of them are below a liveable wage? How many of them don't have benefits like sick leave, vacation, health insurance?
I also would note something from the article, that this rise in employment not only hasn't caused an increase in wages even at inflation, but it comes without any increases in job security or improved benefits. What is the point of a job paying 15 bucks an hour that doesn't have health insurance (or 20 or 25 an hour)? One of the problems with the economy is that the power is so much with employers and Wall Street that we now have a vassal economy, where employees are supposed to be grateful to have a job, no matter what it pays. Until we see jobs being created that actually pay a living wage, that someone doesn't need to work 3 jobs and worry if a family member gets sick, then talk to me, and this report basically says that isn't happening. It says people can find those three jobs a bit easier, but says they still need to have that to try and survive. A real measure is when people can find work that is above survival.
10
@bill d
Extremely well written. Your words are as beautiful as they are sad and true.
4
But Rodger was more succinct.
3
I know we all want (and need) Trump to fail. But we must prepare for the eventuality that he may APPEAR to succeed in some areas.
Kim may turn out to be sane. More Americans may find themselves semi-decently employed. Trump may well not be responsible for any of this but he will certainly attempt to take the credit.
What is the DEM strategy for this eventuality?
2
Yes but the economy so far is not on of them. It is a slight improvement over the Obama economy, not the economic miracle FOX claims it is.
I am sure Trump nation is yelling "MAGA! MAGA!", will be cheering 'Yay, Donny, you did what you promised"....and then eventually are going to look at their lives and say "what happened? Where is the improved future?". It isn't a bad thing that people are re-entering the work force, but the rise in wages is pretty pathetic, given that something like the bottom 90% of the wage earners in the US were already way behind the 8 ball with real wages. I suspect when the end of year numbers come out you are going to find that the top .5-1% have done staggeringly well with income and wealth, thanks to the tax cut, and a lot of other people are going to see income growth that doesn't even track inflation, or the real cost of things, things not in the CPI, like insurance, medical insurance costs/premiums, etc. Unless we see real wage growth, what the GOP tax cut is is a sugar rush to the economy, it makes a lot of stockholders and very rich happy, but the impact to the rest of us is like that sugar high, it ends really quickly and leaves us feeling even worse.
3
As I always ask in response to reports of good employment news, how good will the economic numbers have to get before the legions of people over 50 (or 40, or 35), who were jettisoned from the economy by Corporate America during the Great Recession, become employable again?
For that matter, how long will it take before the boon of last year's Republican tax cut for the wealthy trickle down to the people who don't write large checks to Republican politicians? So far, employers seem to be doing a great job of holding wages down and reducing benefits despite a labor shortage in a burgeoning economy. The nation's wealth seems to be redistributing to the wealthy, just as the Koch Brothers and other donors expect from the Republicans they bought and paid for.
But those Republicans still keep promising trickle-down growth for the rest of us. I suppose that means we need to keep the faith and keep voting Republican. That will continue their mandate to cut taxes for job-creators, and particularly to eliminate regulation and entitlement programs that stifle growth. Once taxes are sufficiently low, and liberal Big Government programs and regulation destroyed, the trickle-down magic will finally kick in, and every (White) American will be able to live like Scott Pruitt. I heard that on Fox News, so it must be true.
7
Unfortunately, this is about as good as it gets regarding employment. Folks that are having a hard time finding work now will only continue to struggle. Employment can't go down much further, and after a 10 year recovery, we're bound to enter a recession in the next few years.
2
More jobs and unemployment is on the rise. What is wrong with this picture? Unemployment is on the rise because of this trade war trump has gotten us into. How are his supporters going to like that one. I know trump will tell them it is China's fault
3
While I think you can't give credit to Trump for much of this, the real answer is that people who were discouraged and stopped looking for a job re-entered the workforce, and as a result the total number of unemployed went up. The unemployment rate as measured by the labor department is kind of a fake number, because it only looks at people employed/# of people employed+people actively looking for work. To get a true notion of unemployment you would need the bottom number fo tbe people employed/# of people employed+#of people actively looking+those of working age who aren't looking or working. What has happened is people in the last category have switcheed to looking for work, so the unemployment rate went up because more people came back into looking for work then were hired.
Trust me Bill I do know about that. I worked for state of Ohio employment services in the mid 1970s and had to be train to read all of that data. I am sure you also understand that once General Motors and other large companies start laying people off as well as the small companies that support them unemployment is going to rise. This situation is not going to get better.
1
Easy to achieve good job numbers. I will borrow more money to hire more workers as long as I can continue printing the money and the world needs my papers to buy oil.
Are there still doctor shortages in many rural areas? And what about the small towns whose citizens can't afford going to the dentist? Has any of that changed?
And what about the shortage of skilled workers who are clean of opiods?
No matter what I don't see clothing manufacturing returning because decent wages will make clothes just too expensive. The 1% like Melania can afford to buy $10,000 purses and $2000 plaid shirts but the average American relies on $10 tee shirts and $17 jeans.
Summer jobs. Wait until September.
3
Let's hope there's a job for Pruitt and his wife.
Let these numbers speak for themselves, as long as they are clearly defined and put in proper context. People tend to latch onto numbers that reflect their biases, in either direction. How about some kind of measure for how easy or hard it is to make a decent living with some sort of stability and sustainability?
During Obama’s years in office the Fed pursued a policy of quantitative easing “by buying specified amounts of financial assets from commercial banks and other financial institutions, thus raising the prices of those financial assets and lowering their yield, while simultaneously increasing the money supply.” Wikipedia, “Quantitative easing.”
The Fed had to do this three times (QE I, QE II, and QE III) in 2008, 2010, and 2012, respectively, before it felt QE could be tapered off. It was, therefore, the Fed’s economy and not Obama’s unless raising taxes and increasing the regulatory burden are somehow considered stimulants and not deterrents to economic growth.
Under Trump there is less need for intervention by the Fed because unlike Obama, who basically let the Fed do all the work, Trump is taking independent action of his own e.g. the tax decrease, the regulatory reduction, which have their own stimulatory effect. It can, therefore, truly be said that the current boom period is the result of his “economy,” not the fed’s, and certainly not Obama’s who did nothing but ride the tide.
7
>Ed
“the tax decrease, the regulatory reduction, which have their own stimulatory effect”
How do you know this? No corporation has yet filed a tax return using the new rates, which only went into effect in January 2018.
Also we hear much about the regulatory reduction but what specific regulations have been reduced such that the economy has been stimulated?
And what about the Trump imposed tariffs and other countries’ counter-tariffs? Won’t they “have their own depressing effect”?
At least you have acknowledged that the QE during the Obama years was successful - as it was in a number of countries following the 2008/09 meltdown. And thanks for taking pains to point out that Obama and/or his economic advisers were in no way responsible for any of this.
4
@ed-
You make it sound like the economy was dead under Obama and suddenly sprang to life under Trump. Economies are like an oil tanker turning, they don't move that fast, and like the economy tend to run on momentum and inertia before turning. Leaving out the stock market (which reflects nothing other than the psychology of investors and analysts), the economy has been growing pretty steadily, and the unemployment rate was declining long before Trump took office. Yes, some stimulous is short term, the tax cut causes Wall Street to go nuts, which is shown in returns to rich investors pretty quickly and the value of executives stock holdings, but at this point no one can tell what Trump's affect is, for the better or worse. Hiring has not spiked over the levels it has had (the tax cut went in in Jan,2018, 6 months ago) since the law went into effect, and the only real growth it generated that you can see is in things like stock buybacks and dividend increases.
More importantly, you can only judge an economy and the effect any policies had, whether fed or congress or the president, over time. The fed actions allowed the economy to grow with cheap money, a slow growth that I wish showed more wage growth.So far the stimulous from Trump's actions seem to be modest, the wage and benefit growth is not positive, and things like employee one time bonuses and the like are like feeding a kid candy.
2
This looks like a continuation of the Obama economy. The only action by Trump is to turn over a trillion dollars to American oligarchs during the next decade. The economic ship of state hasn't yet felt the consequences of that.
14
"This looks like a continuation of the Obama economy."
What specific Obama policy helped the economy?
4
Yes, more people looking to join the workforce. Certainly a result of the Obama economy, ending.
3
George Orwell, the economy has been on upswing for many years now, mostly thanks to the Fed. Obama’s just stayed out of the way. Trump is not doing that. I suspect there will be negative consequences.
When I have a job, that's full employment.
14
We can provide tax payer support for child care so more Americans have more kids that we can then spend a fortune to educate; or, we could allow immigrants to come here ready to work.
1
Encourage and bring the immigrant workers.......legally and with skills.
1
Some of you guys just don't get it. There is a major difference between illegal aliens and legal immigrants. Many people have waited for years for their turn to come up. And they are welcomed here with open arms. But when millions sneak into the country (between 11-20 million estimated, the US admits to 11 million, since they admitted that, it's probably closer to 20), uninvited, undocumented, put an extreme burden on our hospitals, schools and social services, but pay no State or Federal taxes, that's a major problem . But I suppose you just want to let them come in unchecked. I guess none of them have come in and offered to do your job for half or less of what you earn.
1
Boris, we need approximately 3 million new workers each year above and beyond our current birth rate. 300,000 per year come here illegally, we should do something about that. That still leaves 2.7 million more we need; and, Trump wants to reduce our immigration. It makes NO economic sense so it must be based on political motivations.
ADP says 177000. Nothing to write home about.
1
".......Despite stomach-churning trade tensions, the American economy is strong enough to keep pulling even estranged workers back into the labor force......"
Yes, indeed, this UPTICK has resulted in UNEMPLOYMENT going from 3.8 to 4-(-FOUR)--%. on trump's watch. it is called unemployment creep.
"Hiring in the manufacturing sector nonetheless continued its surge, with 36,000 jobs added in June...."
Manufacturing TINFOIL HATS in Red States just ahead of the new tariffs imposed by the TARIFF OF ROTTINGHAM.
1
When such employment numbers occurred under Obama, the right wing critics proclaimed the data suspect, likely to be revised, and anemic anyway, not enough for what the economy needs.
Same number now, and somehow it’s the glory days.
14
When such numbers occurred under Obama, the Left wing celebrated. Now the Left wing complains and "resists."
5
To paraphrase the last woman you looked up to, Tony, there is no such thing as "the Left wing."
Bonus: There's no such thing as "the tea party" either. You're welcome!
So, another month, and we get a "good" jobs report. Never the mind that the real unemployment rate is 8%, that most of the created jobs are low paying, that the workforce participation rate continues to decline, that age bias is rampant, salaries remain almost at or below inflation, and all of this is being reported as positive "propaganda". It reminds me of when the Soviet Union released their 5 year plan results glorifying the worker state, while most of the workers stood on lien for bread, in near empty shops.
10 1/2 years, since the onset of the Great Recession, and for most people, they are still waiting for the recovery. Like, something equivalent to the 1990s. We are way far from there.
It si a recovery, and full employment, when people like me, aged 62, can get a decent paying, professional job, because there is a real worker shortage. We are no where near that point, and 2% raises are a testament to that.
16
unemployment went up from 3.8 to 4 % (PRUITT'S OFFICE STAFF) but hires increased at I.C.E. which accounts for more 36,000 more jobs as The INVASION OF THE BABY SNATCHERS" increases.
1
Mine did. Big Christmas bonus. Big bonus in June (biggest of my entire working life). I didn't vote for him, but I'm quite a bit ahead from where I was 3 years ago. Yet we have one side (who are probably also doing well), that is trying to start a race war, calls everyone that disagrees with them, "A Racist", and does NOTHING but cry about everything Trump does. And calls everyone that voted for him "ignorant and Racist". Yep, that will get them to switch parties, "If you don't vote with us, you're a racist".
2
Good news for Trump. He can brag about the economy. Bad news for workers that wages are not keeping up with inflation.
9
The boom continues. Wages up. Unemployment at all time low for Afro-Americans. Confidence through the roof. This is horrible news for democrats and the fake news media as the November elections loom. The democrat platform of eliminate ICE will result in rampant murder and crime, both of which the democrats must have for their talking points. Look for red wave. Stay tuned.
19
While the private economy continues to do well after the Republicans completely crashed it, the Trump administrations "Zero Tolerance "policy has made the Conservative argument for reducing government agencies based on an incompetent bureaucracy compelling.
4
But inflation up as well, as matter of fact unemployment is up as well
@steve-
Wages aren't up, and won't be until people's real wages increase. Salary increases are averaging 2.7%, and that isn't evenly distributed (I would bet that among the top .5% wages and income are soaring, while among the bottom 90% they haven't even grown that much, the 2.7% is an average, not a mean or median). The reality is that just looking since the 2007 recession, people's real wages declined, and at current growth rates salary increases are not keeping up with inflation (not to mention that the inflation rate doesn't measure things like the cost of gasoline, the cost of insurance, the cost to fix your car, the cost of college, the cost of health care, etc, all of which are going up at rates > inflation rate).
In the end, Reagan had it right, and that is with all these statistics being reported, are they doing better? Are people still worried their job will disappear tomorrow, are they still worried about health insurance or an illness bankrupting them, are they and their spouse working multiple jobs to try and patch together a living? Or are they living the kind of life where they may not have worries, that they don't keep them up at night.
I also will add something, I have heard consumer spending is up, which is normally a good thing...but I also am seeing that people are financing that through credit cards or once again, refinancing their homes ie doing it with borrowed money. If the economy is truly growing, people would be buying stuff with extra income.
1
Main stream media having tough time reporting on the wonderful Trump Economy. Haven't heard much about the Blue Wave supposedly coming in November. "It's the economy, Stupid!"
14
Then why didn’t the president tweet about it?
This was an average report in terms of job growth and wage growth. And the jobless rate went up. But, that is because more people are looking for work, which signifies confidence, and is good news.
I wonder Mark, did you give Obama any credit as he brought us out of '08 economic crash caused by Wall Street and other greed? Right, didn't think so.
So much for the hoax of “the market” with its phony laws of supply/demand. Great demand for workers but the greed-kings are not going to pay more. All they know now is “tax incentives.” What a crock!
2
I wonder when people are going to figure out, once and for all, that if you borrow twenty thousand bucks on your credit cards, buy a Charger, take the control chips and the cat converter off, and dump avgas in the tank, you're going to get a lot of noise and acceleration.
For a little while.
In case it's unclear to devotees of FOX and Hannity what I mean, I mean that if you run up massive debts you can't pay, deregulate the guys who dump lead and fire-foam in your water, and tell anybody around you that you couldn't care less what happens to them now, let alone in twenty years, you can always try and pass off what you're doing as success.
Heck, it went great under Dubya and in Kansas, not to mention how well the Roaring Twenties worked out.
12
This good economic news is a "wake up call" for Democrats!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
They cannot rely on bad economic news to win the House.
Democrats have to come up with more compelling reasons to vote Democratic.
They need instant messages, not long, drawn out rambling to turn voters out.
Wake up Democrats! Have idea contests for the best campaign idea.
Learn from Trump and Fox News about how to dominate the media!
====================================================
5
As a progressive liberal, even I'm sometimes amazed at how Obama's policies led to an amazing boom AFTER he left office.
That's the power of progress. It's like the Force. You can't see it, and no one can really explain it (excepting of course the Mitichlorian explanation from Phantom Menace), but it's always there, ready to be summoned and to play a role, as long as you BELIEVE.
2
Actually, it didn't boom after he left office, when Obama left office the unemployment rate was around 4.9%, and arguable by April 2017 (Trump having been in office 3 months, couldn't be argued it was his economy by any measure) it was 4.4%. So basically under the last 15 months of the Trump administration, the unemployment rate has droped .5%, and wages have grown at less than the rate of inflation...so where is the boom?
1
For heaven sake New York Times... Will you please stop using 20th century rubrics to report on our 21st-century economy? The real cost of everything essential through the ceiling and wages are dropping slightly. I would wager a bet that the tiniest fraction of these glittering new jobs pay a decent wage or offer benefits. I don’t understand why this paper insists upon publishing these misleading rosy reports that are complete odds with what almost everyone except for the very wealthy us among us are experiencing. Just stop it!
9
Show me a Trump administration statistic and I will show you a lie. "Lower cheaper and best health insurance" DJT
3
a major reason why labor force participation did not recover this time was the large number of dubious and fraudulent disability claims filed.
As part of the legislation that that bailed-out the Social Security Disability Trust Fund, various reforms were enacted.
We believe that some of those reforms were responsible for the decline in disability rolls and the commensurate increase in the labor force. This could reduce the prospects that tightness in the labor market will exacerbate inflation.
In July, 2015 we published a report titled "Disability's Destabilizing Impact on the Labor Market". https://seekingalpha.com/article/3342635 In that report we noted that labor force participation historically has behaved cyclically within a gently declining trend. Participation consistently tended to fall during recessions and rise during economic recoveries as job prospects improved. In this most recent business cycle while the participation rate fell as expected during the recession phase, it continued falling throughout the recovery.
In our earlier report we noted a CBS "60 Minutes" segment that quoted employees of the Social Security Administration and their administrative law judges, who asserted that millions of people were being recruited by lawyers to make fraudulent claims. One such judge said "if the American public knew what was happening, half would be outraged and the other half would apply for benefits"..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4157404
2
To answer the Elmira (readers pick)
Below are the numbers , current, previous month
Wages in Manufacturing : 21. 39 , 21.49 $/hr (negative, fell)
Manufacturing Pay Roll : 36 000, 19 000 (positive, increased)
Wage growth (%) : 0.2% , 0.3% (slowed)
Wages , High skilled : 4 290.00 4 120.00 ($/month) (basically flat)
Wages, Low skilled : 2 090.00 1 830.00 ($/month) (increase)
Once you adjust for inflation (0.23% per month, latest data), high skilled wages , in real dollars fell, low skilled wages increased.
3
Another triumph for President Trump! Some call this Obama boom. Well Obama's gone, he's long gone, get over it! This Trump's boom. This is Trump's economy, which works in the interest of people who work for a living. I support the President. I support Trump. Thank you.
9
As soon as these trade wars start to build and take their effect, you will be not be getting over the fact that this economy will come crashing down.
8
Be sure and pass the gladsome tidings to soybean farmers, small metalwork firm owners, lobster fishermen, auto companies, Harley owners, and the employees who make the lovely Jack Daniels that we're all going to need, won't you?
8
‘Another 601,000 Americans joined the labor force last month’. That wouldn’t be just the college class of 2018 that just graduated at the end of May would it? June is a silly month to crow about workforce participation rates - I would think that number should be even bigger. Remember all those new workers have tens of thousands of dollars of student loans to pay back in an environment of rising interest rates and lagging wages. These numbers are not great.
14
Trump and the Republicans have not yet killed the Obama Expansion, now in its ninth year. But their trade war should do it.
39
Congratulations America for proving that the American worker can compete.
Congratulations President Trump for leading the success.
10
I feel that the NYT is somewhat fair in its business coverage. Their tremendous animus towards President Trump is not reflected in their analysis of today's miraculously strong economy. That is good.
9
these comments are hilarious in their desperation to turn these positive statistics around.
8
isn't what expected? Trump's folks dissed on positive reports under Obama, why would they expect that Dems treat Trump differently? Just prey that good reports keep coming, otherwise they will eat Trump alive.
1
Let's all stop for a second and breathe. The last line of your lead editorial on the same home page that displays this great news says that Trump's legacy, "will be an overheated planet and shortened life spans." Day in, day out, you bash the president in editorials and theoretically objective reporting--as if he were a Putin reboot or perhaps a Stalin in training. He is not any of that. He is a narcissistic opportunist whose sincere rage has touched the sincerely raging hearts of the tottering American middle class. Meanwhile, you keep reporting great economic news--week after week--that surely must be some kind of odd coincidence. What, may I ask, are you going to tell us if, one day soon, Trump's policies actually don't deliver as he promised? Are you going to offer the statistics that prove your prediction we are all to die sooner than if Clinton had been elected president?
4
Mr. Behr, excellent letter. I used to think newspapers were supposed to deliver news, not try to make or influence it. The Net Effect of this, on me anyway, is that while I still read The New York Times daily, I'd estimate that 90 % of any articles about The President, are extremely biased against him, objectivity is out the window. I'm not looking for a Donny's Fanboi Page, I'm looking for a true news source, which the NYT was, once upon a time .
How about getting back to that?
“Arriving on the ninth anniversary of the recession’s end, the latest jobs numbers cap a string of encouraging economic reports.”
I see we’re still trying to make it Obama’s economy. Unfortunately Trump has reversed all of Obama’s policies. Shouldn’t the economy have tanked instead of roaring ahead if Obama’s policies were so great?
4
In general, it was not Obama's economy, and it's not Trump's. It was Janet Yellen and the people who really play with the money. A President has very, very little to do with it other than listen to his advisors and hire decent people to manage things.
8
You think Trump has hired decent advisors to manage things? The only people that Trump hires are there to stir the pot, create chaos and leave the world wondering when the ball or bomb will drop. The insanity of it all is enough to drive the calmest person crazy.
1
The Obama Boom continues, although job creation was a bit faster in Obama's last 16 months than Trump's first 16 months. And that was happening without adding nearly 50% to the debt trajectory over 10 years ($34,000 per family) or 7 million to the ranks of the uninsured (+25%) relative to the Obama baseline (CBO January 2017 baseline).
One quibble:
Ivanka Trump and one of the economists mentioned in the article both said that people that were outside the labor force are now finding jobs in greater numbers. I'd like to better understand that, as that doesn't seem to have changed much since Obama's second term.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics maintains "labor force flows" data on this very topic. The movement of persons from the "Not in the Labor Force" category to "Employed" averaged as follows; note that these numbers are offset by those moving in the opposite direction as well.
2015 4.33 million
2016 4.316 million
2017 4.488 million
2018 4.304 million
So that statement may have carried some weight in 2017, but it isn't really the case in 2018, if I'm understanding this correctly.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=483248&rn=5452
1
What about consumer/student/medical debt and savings? Let's see some articles on debt and rising interest rates eating into our ability to save. Couple that with low wages and you will have a far more accurate picture of the health of the American economy.
21
The elephant in the room is Trump's stellar economy. Remember when President Obama said in a town hall meeting "What's Trump going to do wave a magic wand and create jobs?" The media was calling the dismal Obama economy "the new normal" remember? It was so clever how the media started saying "jobs created or saved" to lower the bar for President Obama. It was so sad to see him struggling in a job in which he had no experience.
13
I guess that you did not look at the first chart which shows that the monthly change in jobs has been pretty consistent since 2013. Or the second chart which shows that the decline in unemployment was faster under Obama's leadership. What is happening under Trump is similar to what happened under Obama.
I can't understand why Trump supporters insist that the economy is so much stronger now than it was two or three years ago.
24
I think they realize that job growth at ~200K a month isn't that impressive when you're recovering from 8-14% unemployment, and it's much more impressive when you can maintain ~200K new jobs a month in the face of 3-4% unemployment.
It's like GDP growth. It's higher now. Or market growth. Which is higher now. Or the DOW. Which is doing materially better now. Or minority unemployment rates, which are at historic lows right now. Or projected jobs and GDP growth, which are both expected to rise. Or the size of people's bonuses. Many of which went up. Or the size of people's raises. Many of whom got them. Or housing prices. Which are going way up, making the owners feel better. Or consumer confidence and small business owner survey data, which are also indicating that things are much better now than they were 3 years ago.
I think the fact that things are much, much better now is getting harder to dispute. But as a socialist progressive, my response is to insist that it's all because of Obama. I think we on the left basically have two options; we can deny the growth, or chalk it up to Obama.
I used to deny it. But this made me sound like an innumerate crank. Now I just say that Obama's policies are finally paying off, after Trump was elected. Some have told me this makes me sound daft, and one even offered to buy me a subscription to the Wall St. Journal "to get a clue" as he put it, but I think this position is more tenable.
7
Please look at facts. Stop repeating nonsense and look at the charts.
2
Dear Trump supporters,
I have a question for you. If you look at the first chart and draw a line through the average of it from start to finish, it will come out horizontal, flat. There is no upward slope. In fact, there are simple algebraic techniques that can be applied to the data to smooth it out and generate such a trend line. Visually, we can easily see that there is no discernible trend, up or down.
That means there is no Trump trend. I'm sure Trump supporters understand how to read graphs and charts and understand the concepts of upward and downward trends as indicated by sloping averages. To state otherwise would denigrate Trump supporters and falsely accuse them of being of lower understanding of the world.
Now, if Obama did everything wrong and Trump did everything right, why is there no discernible upward trend breakout since he took office? The answer is because neither president affected the economy that much. The economy is operating on its own and healing itself.
There has also been no breakout of GDP growth, still stuck around 2.5% or so.
Oh but Trump pushed unemployment down to 4%. This is like saying a 200 lb. person goes on a diet under Obama, gets down to 165, Trump appears and then drops to 160. Trump then gets all the credit. The dieter should get the credit.
The Federal Reserve is the true hero here with their monetary policy, all of which was opposed by Republicans.
The trade war will cause a breakout, and downward.
109
I looked at the chart, hoping to see an uptrend and had the same thought. If it was the chart of a stock, I wouldn’t buy the stock.
To Trump supporters, looking at data is an anathema. It’s all about how they feel. And they feel great now. The racist has made his part of America feel great again.
Also, if you look at the link of state by state loss due to trade, you will find that (again) the hardest hit state is California. Trump is trying to hurt CA.
4
YES! Thank you, Janet Yellen.
2
Sorry, Bruce, but I'm afraid that the evidence points in the other direction. I am quite sure that Trump supporters cannot read graphs and charts, do not understand trends, and believe potently that wishing makes things so. How deep a catastrophe it might take to abolish the latter condition is hard to predict, and I'm not looking forward to it.
2
Thanks so much New York Times for your cheerleading headline and lack of context, leading the Trump cultists here in the comments section to beat their chests about numbers that signify nothing. We're only begun to see the fallout from DT's ego-driven trade war -- which many Republicans and conservative economists are as angry and worried about as the rest of us. And with regard to wages, you left out a pertinent detail. Thankfully your former labor reporter, Steve Greenhouse, didn't this morning when he tweeted about the jobs report: "Bad News for Workers--After-inflation wages fell by 0.1% over the past year. With the jobless rate so low, wages should be rising strongly. The BLS reports that wages rose 2.7% over past year, but CPI rose 2.8%" That's a net lose, people, not to mention what's going to happen once the tariffs fully kick in.
59
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of low unemployment, it was the age of low wage growth, it was the epoch of increased car sales, it was the epoch of massive amounts of auto debt, it was the season of increasing housing starts, it was the season of mounting mortgage debt, it was the spring of low inflation, it was the winter of increased trade tensions." Charles Dickens, Economist.
89
I know some anti-Trumper is going to try and give credit to Obama for the strong economy.
My question to them is, "Name one specific policy of Obama's that helped the economy."
Every time I ask that question I get the same answer.....
6
Saving the auto industry. Quantitative easing. TARP. Stimulus bill. Not all popular at the time, but they did indeed help. Today's economy is built on that foundation.
87
Obama also achieved the same monthly job gains WITHOUT a tax cut adding $1.5 trillion to he nation debt over a decade ($150 billion per year) and much lower annual budget deficits. Obama had $1 trillion of deficit spending in recession years which was appropriate and raised taxes on incomes over $250k to reign in the debt, which cut the annual deficit in half, to about what it was under Bush. Trump has come in and via out of control tax cuts and spending has skyrocketed the annual deficit back over $1T in a growing economy which is utter madness with poor results in comparison to costs to taxpayers.
29
Obama bailed out the US auto industry and every penny was paid back with interest.
19
These numbers are as irrelevantly random as a daily market report. Just tell me the quarterly trend for income inequality and national happiness.
25
It's a good idea to remember that the headline unemployment numbers released each month by the BLS are the most-favorable U-3 calculations. The broader U-6 statistics, including workers discouraged from seeking jobs in the short term and part-time employees who can't find full-time work, are about twice as high.
And real unemployment is almost always much higher than the Labor Department reports, due to statistical procedures that are designed to present a rosy picture. For a sobering comparison, I suggest checking John Williams' widely-respected ShadowStats site.
3
"The broader U-6 statistics, including workers discouraged from seeking jobs in the short term and part-time employees who can't find full-time work, are about twice as high.
And real unemployment is almost always much higher than the Labor Department reports"
Douglas - Did you point this out during the Obama years? Just wondering.
1
Yes, I pointed it out, repeatedly, during the Obama years and before.
Methinks you may be jumping to unwarranted conclusions about my motives and political persuasion.
Even if he didn't, there were plenty of republican voters in the comments here and elsewhere pointing out U6 and labor force particpation rate at any hint of good news.
Since Trump took office we need someone to remind the public why U3 isn't the whole story since all the anti-Obama nay sayers have suddenly gone silent.
1
“That holds wage gains behind the inflation rate.” Buried in the article is the true story. Inflation is rising faster than wages. Translation: workers are taking an effective pay cut.
This is good news for the economy, why?!
70
>>> "This is good news for the economy, why?!"
It's good news because, for most of those who analyze and comment on these matters, "the economy" means those who own and operate the economy.
1
This is the same NYT who refused to look behind the curtain, was aggressively spreading the false intel, and supported invading Iraq for absolutely no reason.
In the end, on major items, the NYT has always carried every administration's water, no matter how badly it hurts Americans. These articles lying about the economy are no different.
This is a lot like what Trump's chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow said after the Japanese earthquake: "The human toll here looks to be a lot worse than the economic toll and we can be grateful for that." When later shamed for it, he apologized, but his spontaneous remark more accurately reflected his true feelings.
For Republics and their donors, tax cuts for the rich- very important. Making enough money to support one's family, not their problem.
1
Thanks, Obama.
48
I agree, thanks Obama for an increase of 1,000 elected GOP candidates, Thanks for letting the GOP take the congress and senate enabling the GOP to block Obama SCOTUS pick allow Trump to appoint Gorsuch and another to replace Kennedy. Thanks Obama for allowing the GOP to run roughshod over the Ineffective DNC. Thank you Obama for enabling Trump to cement a conservative SCOTUS for the next decade. The progressive movement regarding the SCOTUS is dead in it's tracts. Thank you Obama for backing the losing democratic candidate HRC.
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Thanks, term limits. More recession was not needed.
Given the post-Maria Puerto Rico death toll, and given a president who built his entire career on puffery (at best) and who has stocked the executive branch with toadies and ethical pillars like Scott Pruitt, is anyone else just a tad skeptical of the stream of rosy numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the other "good news" agencies? I'm not talking here about the traditional nuances (like turning a functional unemployment of 20% into 4%) but about the numbers themselves. Are they making them up Trump-style and, if so, do they have an endgame, a let-them-down-gently sunset plan? Or do we just keep "adding jobs" and growing the economy ("See, my tariffs worked!") until unemployment is at -20% and there's a gold chicken in every pot and we're all (at least) millionaires?
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All this glee about the job report! And yet, if we look at the multi-year graph with this article, the job growth for the month of June was higher every year from 2014 through 2017 than this June. And the unemployment rate is starting to climb. It all looks like another month of the same slow recovery, except that the numbers do not reflect the trade war with China that started yesterday or our trade war with the E.U., Canada and Mexico. How can anyone be optimistic?
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@Jeff | Evanston, IL
I concur completely with your insight Jeff. I highly doubt that workers with the "modest increase in hourly earnings — which falls a nose behind some measures of inflation" — will not only be disappointed but greatly crushed. As long as there are unemployed or grossly underpaid workers who barely earn enough to make a decent, much less a good living wage, then all of the headline hoopla is misleading, if not deceitful. Hiring can't be that strong if the unemployment rate "rose to 4 percent, from 3.8 percent."
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The American economy is doing well. Unfortunately the spoils of the current good times will continue to largely go to the so-called 1% and the workers will continue to get crumbs in comparison. In the meantime, the ‘American dream’ - the myth of a poor person having a realistic chance to become wealthy through hard work and grit - will continue to be swallowed by a majority of Americans of all political stripes in spite of all available data saying otherwise.
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It would be very useful if the side by side charts show how the CPI and average hourly earnings trend. Its sounds great superficially that unemployment is low and the job market is robust but if people can't afford or need to work multiple part time jobs to get by, then these impressive numbers are meaningless. Perhaps another column measuring affordability anxiety will add more meaningful discussion.
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The economy will hit the wall, the moment the backers of this administration have drained every last cent out of the American taxpayer.
Of course they won't get hurt, because they will have inverted or stashed all of their trillions offshore. They will then swoop in to buy things for pennies on the dollar to get even more rich. ( Just like Greece and Puerto Rico as examples)
By then, this entire administration will have turned over, or possibly be in jail from the Mueller inquiry. Then republicans will call for ''unity'' to heal and bring the country together, while many will have gotten off like bandits.
Sound familiar ?
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LOL... so aptly said...
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there may be more jobs, but what are the salaries, wages, benefits, hours, distance from home, etc.
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Past Fed interest rate adjustment had not solved the boom-bust cycle of the economy. A measured Trump interruption of the international trade may do the trick. Although Trump appears to say whatever is in his mind, he does not want to reveal his real intention of his trading wars against the world - let everyone pays to tame down the uncontrollable U.S. economy. The key is still America First. The problems are Trump looks insane by most and the U.S. squanders its good citizenry or the world, both of which mean little to the President. A out of control trade war is unlikely because it does not even serve the American First strategy.
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"...it is becoming clear that Trump's assertions that "trade wars are easy to win" were fallacious. No one ever wins a trade war, just some lose more than others. The retaliating nations have a tremendous advantage of those instigating protectionism. This can be seen with tariffs on steel and aluminum that increases the costs of every product made in the USA that uses those metals. Thus, American consumers and producers are already net losers from these ill-advised protectionist tariffs, even before any retaliation. These tariffs increase consumer prices and make products produced in the USA less competitive relative to those made outside the USA using steel and aluminum priced at the world market rather than the artificially propped-up, protected US steel market.
As Trump discovered when a retaliatory tariff was put on US motorcycles (Harley-Davidson) that will not raise any costs on any EU producers or raise prices for anyone in the EU, except for buyers of motorcycles, the cost to the retaliating nations is miniscule. HOG has announced it will have to shift production outside of the USA as a result of the tariffs. Thus, on top of the costs to American consumers, producers and exporters of the steel and aluminum tariffs, before any retaliation, American workers at HOG lose jobs and shareholders of HOG suffer as well..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4184866
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A continued strong economy thanks to President Trump.
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You should be thanking Obama not Trump. Look at the curve. It is a continuation of Obama's efforts. The best thing to say about Trump is that he had not messed things up.
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Stop with this curve stuff. Stop with that fact stuff.
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Remember when Paul Krugman guaranteed that the U.S. economy would tank if Trump was elected? I guess being a Nobel Prize winner in economics does not mean you necessarily know much about economics.
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Yes, I remember that--and also when Krugman said openly that he was wrong, and he'd let his politcs get in the way of his analysis.
What I don't recall is when, say, Stephen Mnuchin or the remarkable economics types on FOX who like to keep repeating this story over and over, doing anything similar. Perhaps you could refresh my memory.
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Socrates--Love your comments. You should write for NYT. Well, in a sense. you do!
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Give it time Paul, give it time.
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Electing a Republican as President allowed Republicans in the legislature to increase deficit spending dramatically. Exactly what President Obama had called for and the Republicans rejected out of hand when the economy crashed.
This is almost exactly what Republicans did when Bush was elected. It didn't end well but it was fun when everyone could own a nice home.
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Provide more detail jobs growth charts. For example, Low- skilled jobs vs higher education jobs, part-time vs full- time jobs. Low wage jobs vs high wage jobs, urban vs suburban vs rural. “ U.S. Hiring Stay Strong” is a little misleading.
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Gotta love the cognitive dissonance of Trump supporters. So, which is it? Are immigrants taking our jobs or has our economy grown enough to welcome more citizens?
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Thank you President Obama.
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The economy has not grown enough for the Disney tech workers who were forced to train their H1B replacements to find comparable jobs to the ones they lost.
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People in the job market and managers who do some hiring (e.g., me) know that at least in my supposedly high-skilled line of work, wages are stagnant or falling slightly.
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Wow. The robust economy keeps growing at a faster rate since the 2016 presidential elections. Millions more are employed today than were before January 2017.
The trade wars may seem like a strain but consumer confidence in Made in the USA is at an all time high and that is fueling strong hiring.
Any country that thinks that they can respond to America's tariffs by indulging in unfair trade practices will be blown away by the wind of change in the USA.
Tariffs or no Tariffs, best American products will sustain the export trade strains and in the process governments will profit from increased revenues.
For all the hype that this is the end of the trading world is just that fearmongering and inconsequential.
Elections have consequences and if trade strains impact the economy then of course there will be a price to pay. As of now, there is no blue wave or a red wave but the American wave.
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@GK
So, if I read your comment correctly, so long as the job figures stay positive, then everything else can be swept under the rug. Gotcha.
An American wave would denote that all Americans would be participating equally in the American dream, which is no where near the case. There will be a blue wave and then all Americans WILL be able to participate equally through strong Progressive policies.
Looking ''forward'' to it. Regards,
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>>> "Tariffs or no Tariffs, best American products will sustain the export trade strains. . ."
Right. Those superior American soybeans will be snapped up at any price.
Well, actually, they will not be. And *all* of the top U.S. exports are, similarly, commodities.
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I feel sure that Harley-Davidson will be glad to hear the gladsome tidings, as will your average metalwork producers, hog farmers and bourbon-makers, but quite frankly, you can go surf your own, "American wave."
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Indeed, good news.
And Trump probably can take credit for these numbers by now. He is averaging almost exactly what he promised during the campaign ~ 25,000,000 over a decade. Which of course sounds SOOOO big, but fairly average We shall see about any reversals.
But bragging? Well, after the recession ended in 2010, Obama added, on average, about 260,000 per month.
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Obama probably created more than 25 million new jobs in his 8 years even in the face of 7 years of Republican obstruction. Employment growth is on the same upward curve as during 8 years of Obama. The best that can be said of Trump is that he hasn't negatively affected Obama's success. What you don't mention is that wages are stagnant while inflation continues to rise.
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"But even if you average out Obama's 75 straight months of job growth, you get 199,000 jobs per month, still shy of Clinton's economy."
260,000 a month? Nice try.
NPR.org
https://www.npr.org/2017/01/07/508600239/what-kind-of-jobs-president-has...
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The fact of the matter is, trade strains started at 12:00 am this morning. Lets talk about this in three months. Watch the movie "Cinderella Man". This way we're a bit more prepared.
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"We could do with a scare in these numbers..." What? No? This is terrible economic intuition!
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why did unemployment go up to 4% if there are so many jobs?
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More people are looking for work.
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As written about in the article, people returning to the work force.
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If people long out of work are back to seeking jobs, the unemployment rate could go up. Also 213,000 new jobs may be too few for, say, a new load of college grads this June all seeking jobs.
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Smoke and mirrors. The average hourly wage earners need two or three jobs to pay rent, food and energy bills; you can forget about insurance or savings. These jobs are not improving the quality of life, just extending the drudgery.
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They said that the Great Depression was actually a great time economically for the rich - cheap goods and labor. And I remember during the last recession, the newspapers touted that jobs and the economy were fantastic like a band playing as the Titanic sank. No amount of consumer confidence is going to turn this mess around. I'm looking around - consumer debt is increasing, housing costs are skyrocketing, salaries are flat, homelessness is at epic heights, I own a small business and sales are way down (seen also by my colleagues), and everyone I talk to is cutting back on their spending. Tie that to the tariffs and trade war, deregulation, and predatory credit lines? I'm battening down the hatches.
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And the thing is the Bureau of labor data/statistics is dependent upon people/companies completing surveys when asked. That is how they get their data - through a survey. I would think there is room for error just with that.
As technology rapidly began entering the workplace in the 1950s, instead of decreasing worker-hours and maintaining the workforce at the same level with the same level of compensation, employers used the savings from technology to keep worker-hours and salaries the same but reduced the size of the workforce. Greater productivity was translated into greater profits for the owners. The benefits did not trickle down. With the decline of unions and the failure of the government to shorten the work-week as they had done in the early part of the 20th century, the work-week stayed about the same, with fewer full-time employees required.
The answer is not to encourage Americans to 'Buy American', but that employees benefit from technology as do employers: Fewer hours for employees with a commensurate increase in compensation so that the level of employment remains the same having more workers working fewer hours and all Americans benefiting from the fruits of technology, not just the employers.
As an example, the introduction of ATMs: While the number of employees fell as the hours of the fewer employees remained the same, employee compensation as a percentage of income fell and profits surged.
Legislation reducing the work-week from 40 hours to 30, then 20 will dramatically increase employment while giving more leisure time to Americans and restoring the employer - employee incomes to a more traditional ratio of 10 or 20:1 rather than the current 200:1.
People are joining the labor pool. We don't need cheap imported labor and goods, we simply need to pay and treat Americans better.
We should encourage other countries to clean up their act and not pretend that they are some socialist nirvana or adopt or accept their intolerant religious ideas.
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Yes - we don’t need to adopt their intolerance. We have plenty of our own...
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The third sentence is very strange. Which countries are pretending that they are a socialist nirvana? And which have intolerant religious beliefs? China, the US's main competitor, has almost no religious beliefs and Europe, the next largest competitor, is a Christian / secular bloc. Those intemperate Christians...
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Immigrants create demand for goods and services as well as supply labor. The net impact of immigration is a positive for the economy. Further, without young immigrants Social Security and Medicare get even harder to finance, forcing the rest of us to pay more taxes.
In other words, you want lower taxes and a stronger economy? Bring in the immigrants.
If some people get left behind, Democrats have offered to raise taxes on the rich to fund college education or trade school for the middle class, a better moral and economic strategy. Democrats already raised taxes on the rich to cover 20 million with healthcare without increasing the deficit, something known as the ACA.
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If you look at the charts, you would find it impossible to point to the zone where Trump became President. Unlike his predecessor, we might add. Clearly, Trump has continued the Obama success story (which, recall, all current Trump supporters denied was happening prior to 2017). Let’s see if he can continue to maintain this good news, or who he will blame it on if it fails.
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Trump's tariffs are only now being implemented.
No mystery there (on his blame). It will be (1) Hillary Clinton (lock her up; lock her up); the failing* NY Times, or simply the fake birth certificate Trump claims Obama has.
Trump will go down in flames, along with anyone and everyone who sided with him out of pure fear of losing their jobs. He is becoming like his mentor, Vladimir Putin. Democrats have to come out and vote. Otherwise, he will be president again. I swear to god, if this occurs, I will move to Canada or France.
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To say this is a continuation of Obama' very sound economic policies is a terrible slap at President Obama.
President Obama wanted to increase spending on education, health care and infrastructure while strengthening regulations on the environment and consumer protection.
President Obama was largely stymied by the Republican Congress. In contrast the Republican Congress broke sequester when Trump was elected and allowed him to eviscerate public education, consumer and environmental regulations, ignore public infrastructure and continue to sell off our public institutions and lands to private contractors.
If you look at the massive deficit spend by President Trump and how little bang we are actually getting for it and how destructive it will be down stream and call that a continuation of President Obama's economic policy is simply untrue.
There is nothing to brag about here. We have purchased short term jobs with long term debt that is destructive toward the health and education of our people and our environment.
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“To retain workers as well as attract new ones, employers say they are increasing pay, sweetening benefits packages and trying to create an appealing work culture.” . . . “Yet workers, particularly in lower-wage sectors, have complaints of their own — particularly about the slow pace of pay increases. Many employers limit hours to avoid paying benefits like health insurance. Work shifts frequently change with little notice, and wage increases are still insufficient to cover living costs. Stability and security are often scarce.”
I’d love to know what kind of jobs are out there where employers will increase pay and sweeten benefit packages and what kind of jobs workers in “particularly lower-wage sectors” have to see if these two worlds of differing employees and positions could somehow meet and benefit from each other.
The most difficult hurdle is getting health insurance included in one’s benefit package. Nothing seems to be rising faster with the most potential of catastrophic effects as health insurance. I know folks who work multiple jobs to cover the cost of rent and food, but have little left over for health insurance, prescription drugs or car insurance.
This headline of “ U.S. Hiring Stayed Strong in June Despite Trade Strains” means little, if anything, to those individuals who continue to struggle every day just to keep their heads barely above water.
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To get some ideas about "incentives" - have a look at the NY Times "A Fast-Food Problem: Where Have All the Teenagers Gone?" . From what I read - in the fast food industry - owners are now paying people over $10.00 an hour (which is still no where close to a living wage). As for the "perks" mentioned in that article, Healthcare is no where to be found.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/upshot/fast-food-jobs-teenagers-short...
I expect that the jobs offering the best remuneration - at every level - are the ones for whom the demand is highest . The candidates that get those jobs are the ones willing to enhance or change their skill sets. The modern economy cannot afford to reward the status quo .
Speaking as someone who wants to put their head down on a desk after looking at charts of any kind, I can still see from looking at these that this administration is doing just about as well as the Obama administration on employment. Almost. Another truth: Why would anyone care if the economy is "hot" if they still can't save a dime and haven't had a decent raise in twenty years.
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The law of job creation diminishing returns states that as one input variable - the economy - is at full capacity, there is a point at which the marginal increase in new hires begins to decrease, holding all other inputs constant - we call that full employment.
So - no it is not 'doing just about as well'
See that, have no idea what you just stated. Are you saying Trump could have been hair gel and employment would have continued in the direction it was going, or are you a defender of the person that makes the United States not want to look in the mirror for eighteen months. Either way, the country needs a raise.
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As the piece states, many jobs are undesirable and lack benefits.
Second comment, how many are underemployed?
Same old, same old. As many are commenting, we are on a Goldilocks trajectory of moderate growth, increasing employment, slow wage growth and slow inflation. This has been the case since the green shoots were seen as the recession was ending and has thus been the trend for most of a decade. Anyone who sees something different is ignoring the macro data.
Looking forward, we have lost an opportunity to accept a bit less growth and a bit higher unemployment to deal with deficit and debt now. What are we going to do when the next recession hits? If it starts soon, it would be necessary to raise taxes to pay for a sufficient stimulus. Will Trump go along with the GOP preference for austerity and let his base starve?
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