According to the most recent census figures, there are almost exactly 200,000 owner-occupied housing units in Manhattan — 866K total units x 23% — & this doesn't include non owner-occupied. But even that means the 7,000 quarterly "glut" of homes for sale is only 3/10 of 1%. And, as the article correctly noted, the median price could easily be effected downward by the lack of ultra-expensive new inventory for sale.
I love living in midtown Manhattan. I bought years ago and my place is almost paid off.
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Overall, this is a great thing for NYC. The price for homes in the city is crazy and that includes the suburb's. As Manhattan gets out of the question the demand starts to move to the rest and as the price of housing goes up so do rents for the poor soles who don't live in a rent controlled/stabilized apartment.
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It's so overbuilt for multi-millionaires. They built thousands of condos out for those folks as if they are being minted on conveyor-belts. And if you were a developer "developing" did you want to be the sucker not building for the next wet-behind-the-ears-built-on-nothing kid with a net "biz" of some sort or other? The city is so primed for a huge crash. And "Trump"'ll cheer it on as the comeuppance of the demographic he hates - the "elites" with the wrong politics. Manhattan is a tinder box of vanities. Anyone hanging on as an owner ... get out now.
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I'm waiting for a nice 2 bedroom to hit 2 million and i'm buying! hurray for the correction!
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NYC is a great place to visit hell of a place to live. For the fabulously wealthy it probably doesn't matter but for the rest of us the new tax laws, rising interest rates and an economy that demands mobility/job change ...why buy?
There is a huge oversupply of buildings coming to market especially in Brooklyn.
It is only going to get worse perhaps even to biblical proportions.
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Of course, no one knows the future, but it would take a catastrophe far worse than 9/11, Sandy & the Recession combined for New York not to continue its predominance as the world's most important city. There are still good bargains to be had for those intrepid & entrepreneurial enough to look where others aren't looking. The reason to buy is simple: assured equity investment with huge profit-taking.
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It's the Trump Effect, dummy.
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carve up the triplexes into affordable 1 and 2 BRs for actual working people
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People are looking to the Upper East Side, as it controls its own schools. District 2 does not allow others in many of its good schools. OK for whites to hoard schools in DeBlasio world. He is focused on screwing Asians.
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I think this is a ridiculous article. Middle class well educated young people are completely priced out of both the buying and the renting markets in NYC. Millennials in their 30's who should be starting families are renting apartments with 3 and 4 roommates, with no privacy and no ability to begin thinking about settling down and raising families. And only the extremely upper middle class and wealthy can even think about buying in NYC. In recent years roughly 1/3 of the condos bought in NYC were bought by foreign investors. I for one, hope they keep building and that the prices keep coming down. NYC is a wonderful city and it should be open to more than the wealthy and wealthy foreigners.
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NY is the US's London - full of wealthy, uber rich Russians and Middle Easterners. I grew up on the Upper East Side and can't even rent a room in a SRO (if they exist anymore) with my nice 6 figure income....
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Looks like Housing Bubble 2.0 is beginning to burst.
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Does anyone (factually, via credible RE research/stats) know what the short term outlook is for NEW and renovated apt buildings?? Reason being, with such a concerning surfeit of inventory to buyers, plus nearly 35% LESS apartments sold in 2nd qtr YOY, then what's the outlook with all the crazy new residential construction happening?
IF this area continues, it obviously compounds existing apt sales specific to Manhattan, also what are the stats in Brooklyn compared to Manhattan?
I think if you extrapolate the short term new build/renov outlook through 1st qtr '19, that's a substantive forecasting point to guage if the slide will continue in sales volume and prices....forget about the 1% interest rate for now.
Lastly, what's Manhattan/Brooklyn foreclosure rates YOY thru June 2018??
Its all about how the confluence of these other missing stats...could add or subtract to the current very concerning if not increasingly dismal RE situation.
WHERE are these 2nd qtr residents/sellers going...out of state, in state ??g
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Housing prices will drop even more in the coming future when it is getting evident that people don't earn as much as the generation before.
In a few years this will be a worldwide trend. Here in Germany the rural landscape is dotted with houses that don't sell because the young people don't have the money to buy them. Our government is already stepping in with a so called "Baukindergeld", money for parents with children. But even this will not help since tax specialists discovered it will help only the Rich. So you can say: as always.
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What I am seeing in this part of rural Germany is that the young people cannot afford to have more than one or two children and the older houses are much larger. The Muslim immigrants have very large families with several wives, often called sisters in law, and six or seven children. They would be ideal candidates for the old large houses but they don't have the money to buy them and they don't want to live in the country. So the young German people tend to gravitate to the small suburban houses that are modern and overall cheaper to maintain and we are getting little suburban developments all over, car dependent, where the ethnic Germans live, vacant large houses or Bauernhaeser in the countryside, and the migrants in the cities that the ethnic Germans are starting to abandon. It is Newark or Detroit or St. Louis all over again in Germany. In the USA they called it "white flight."
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According to the most recent reports, the real estate market is flat or in decline everywhere but in the South where the average price for a home is far below the rest of the country.
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The real estate market in much of California is still robust. Silicon Valley is insane - so is Oakland. LA is has yet too cool off.
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Well they overbuilt - and continue to build - for an imaginary unending flood of hedge managers and 20-something internet moguls. So it was a really, really good plan. Nothing could go wrong.
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I agree. Developers are over confident in skipping over the middle class housing. The high end market is saturated yet school teachers and office workers are dying to buy a simple modern studio they can afford...even if it’s small. Yet they build triplex lofts at a time even foreign investors have dried up.
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I'm middle-class and recently decided to give up on buying a home in New York City. My demands weren't that high. I would have even settled for a studio. The only thing I really wanted was to be in a decent neighborhood.
For what I was looking for, inventory was low. Prices were high. I made too much money to qualify for any affordable housing schemes. Nothing really seemed worth the cost.
I saw nice, but very small studios that even after a 20% down-payment would cost me about $3,300 a month or more. And, I saw places I could more-easily afford, but they were so awful they made me angry. You're selling a nearly half million dollar property and can't be bothered to fix exposed wiring?
Probably, like other middle-class people, I'll continue to rent and look to move elsewhere.
To understand what is happening, you have to read this article
Luxury Urban Housing, Built on a Myth, Is About to Take a Big Hit
https://www.thedailybeast.com/luxury-urban-housing-built-on-a-myth-is-ab...
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The housing malaise is not confined to NYC. Connecticut Gold Coast properties have noticeably declined in selling price in recent years. Suggesting we may be in the final stages of our longest running post-War expansion.
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The comment below reflects a lack of knowledge about the true value of NYC for older residents. Excellent health care, walkability, vast amounts of culture including music and museums, as well as people! Plus you don't need a car. Isolation and loneliness being a big problem for older folks, and NYC offers plenty of company even when you don't want it. Also, many things are free.
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Excellent!!
The tax overhaul should not have any affect for NY real estate. Capping property 10K is irrelevant; especially since it is only a deduction. NYC is expensive, smelly in the summer, stressful, noisy and does not appeal to a lot of the wealthier older generation. Why should anyone throw money away on NY real estate; there are many other places with nicer weather.
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Of course the tax cap matters! Deductions are very important. Yes, NYC is expensive and smelly in the summer. It appeals to some and not to others just like everything else in life. These are separate issues.
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how are you miscounting, Jan? This reduction in the MID limit from 1M to 750k (relevant to nearly any would be NYC buyer) is a loss of just under 12k in deductions. Limiting SALT to 10k and eliminating nearly every other effectively eliminates the first 14k in MID (10+14 = the 24k standard deduction for married people). Add it up - 30-40k in lost deductions in the low end - that's $800/month different in net income.
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I lived in NYC and now NJ, and pay more RE tax here and it is an issue in both states, bigly. “Trump” found a way to effectively raise revenues from blue states to subsidize his red state base, brilliant.
And NJ is often hotter than NYC and can also smell bad and is generally really, really ugly.
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Every 7 or 8 years the music stops. This one is is probably a year or two overdue.
Plus, with the mortgage interest deduction capped at $750k of loan and real estate tax deduction capped at $10k, buying has suddenly become very unappealing in the NYC market compared to renting.
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