Why am I missing all the possible benefits of the coming negotiations? Is this all about empowering a rogue nation like the previous president did?
Hopefully Mr. Trump will ask congress to ratify his proposed treaty, if he gets to that point. That would assure NK that the agreement will hold beyond Trump's presidency. That's another thing the former president didn't accomplish or even try.
If Republicans and Democrats cannot agree on a nuke treaty with a rouge nation, then we deserve all the downside to such a failure of our Constitutional system, just like the downside of the "peace in our time" treaty signed unilaterally by our past president.
Hello everyone! Wake up from the "infection" that has distorted your ability to to analyze the facts.
1
NK has always sought a summit with the US 1) to gain international legitimacy after its rogue ways (airline bombing, assassinations, kidnapping, counterfeiting, drugs dealing, etc.) and 2) and to get the sanctions eased.
Until Trump, no US president agreed since 1) there was no sign NK was changing its rogue ways, and 2) the nuke and rocket programs were continuing.
By the beginning of 2018, China had agreed to sanctions that would reduce oil shipments to NK by 80% and even Russia was restricting entry to NK shipping, while the US made cross-border financial transactions almost impossible for NK.
Kim was desperate and sought help from Moon during the Olympics. One thing led to another and now Trump gave NK everything: 1) Kim now appears legitimate in international eyes, 2) it is now more difficult to keep the sanctions in place, and 3) nothing has been agreed upon regarding the nukes and the rockets.
Kim wins. By the end of 2018, he will have had summits with the heads of China, Russia and the US.
Trump loses whatever leverage he had at the beginning of this year. In Tokyo, people shake their heads and laugh at him.
2
Oh, how snookered we will be. LOL
2
What a golden opportunity for China and North Korea while the poor folks in South Korea are just trying not to be obliterated in a neo-con holocaust. I wonder how Republicans will spin this on FOX, or will they ignore it and cut to an alien abduction?
4
China doesn’t need the permission from the US anymore, in relation to how it deals with its ‘neighbors’. It will strengthen its ties with North Korea anyhow, and the US can only chose how they want to position themselves here. Either at least as one party who made is happen. Or as the bully who no one take serious any longer, and going against whom is almost a virtue in itself. Very smartly played by North Korea, by the way, Kim really know how to play a weak hand strongly.
2
How is DPKRs threat to the US and South Korea any less worrisome today than it was yesterday? Trump and his administration are nothing short of con men out for their own publicity stunt and with no concrete defense strategy! Trump is a tyrant only interested in public adoration. What would have been the point of all those sanctions if we end up with no commitment by DPRK to complete and verifiable denuclearization?
1
And there you go. Well played Mr. Moon. Your goal of economic interdependence among Northeast Asia you call 'building the None Bridges' will soon be brought to fruition.
Brilliant Mr. Moon for you will soon turn adversaries to economic partners, a little bit of something for all with China gaining the most.
You and Kim have done your homework for DJT will show up June the 12th feeling like a hero.
1
Trump, as with the treasonous ZTE deal, will give away all U.S. leverage in exchange for Chinese payoffs to his and his family's businesses and secret bank accounts (plus Chinese money to the GOP leadership to keep them happy and quiet).
2
Besides Ivanka getting her trademark ruling in China, does Trump ever think about consequences when he blunders about the globe like a bull in a china shop?
I just pray this all works out because we know that the Republican party is also crossing just their fingers that Trump doesn't mess things up too much while they use him for cover to remove all regulations that keep us safe, install judges that ignore the rule of law and line their own pockets.
6
Our troops were in South Korea to protect against North Korean aggression against the South and against Japan. If the South is increasing economic engagement with the North, our need for troops there diminishes. Trump now can send those troops to fight Bolton's war against Iran. But make Bolton carry the flag in the front of the front tank line.
7
Japan?
1
Dear Jong,
How are you, buddy. I meant it when I said you can have a fine vacation at one of my resorts as soon as we sign the deal. Any one you want. I’ll even fly you on Pence’s plane.
Also, I see you want to open a burger joint as a sign of good will. Great idea. As you know I love a good burger. But seriously, little buddy, you may know that I used to sell a Trump steak. Best steak in the world, I'd have to say. Well I’ve still got some good connections in the beef industry as well as in distribution – and you ought to know by now what a great salesman I am.
I’m sure you know that as POTUS I can’t make any personal deals, but Eric -you two have to meet- certainly can and I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that he’s already thinking along these same lines.
So how about it? I can see it now - TrumpKim Partners. Can’t you just smell the money. And the burgers?
See you soon.
Your Pal,
Donald
10
Let’s leave former Pixies bassist Kim Deal out of this debacle. Thanks.
1
The New York Times writes: "Should a deal emerge from the Trump-Kim meeting on June 12 in Singapore, China is ready to extend its dominance over the North’s small and decrepit economy, where signs of an emerging market economy are also strengthening China’s hand."
This is a telling sentence. At some point we are going to have to come to grips with our international role. Are we in Korea to protect and help the Korean people, or are we there solely to maintain our dominance? Obviously, the emerging peace deal is going to greatly help the long-suffering people of North Korea. But the NYT reporter is focusing on the fact that it will also strengthen China.
Regarding North Korea, we have to confront our true motivations. Are we in Korea to help the Korean people or not? China is going to be far more powerful in the region regardless, due to their prosperity, their massive size and their proximity.
3
As was written by another "Commentator" listed below, I too cannot help but wonder whether Kim might seek changes so as to industrialize N. Korea and make it a competitor to other Asian nations. It has China as a source of strength. It also has the ability to pay a lower hourly wage to its many unemployed starving people. Kim would continue to maintain lifetime control supported by his followers. Yet, in the meantime, as another source of income, Kim could continue to secretly try to supply other nations or entities with the ability to develop atomic weapons. "Politics is politics".
2
What was it, 2050, when most economists figured China would supplant the U.S. as the world's leading economy. With Trump's help they might get there by 2024. MCGA.
5
If we make a deal it should include a requirement that all food aid and trade goods be from the US and clearly marked as coming from the US for the people of North Korea. Un should not be allowed to lift his people out of poverty and starvation without giving us full credit for helping them.
1
The DPRK is going to inflate like a collasped lung when China swoops in and performs economic triage. It’s people, concentration camp shadows, having lived on air sandwiches for decades, are going to ball themselves up into an unavoidable fist of focused labor. ALL the scaffolding of experience of other Asian nations’ rise is in place and proven: North Korea’s rise will be meteoric. At first, other nations will begin to trickle trade NK’s way; then, the waters will rise; then, you will have to hold on to keep from being swept away by the oncoming rush of progress. NK will have the cheapest most focused labor force on the planet. South Korea is the North’s willing template; further, NK will engage in exceptional good behavior across the board and in all things be an advocate for peace. It will be given a seat at the nuclear table. History will prove Kim right to have armed his nation against the United States. Eventually, the North and South will unite; then, Korea, as one nation, will be a member of the nuclear club.
Now, China will have expanded her labor force, created a new market, strengthened its influence in the North and the region, and demonstrated to the entire East and the world that China’s embrace is a rich reward. Meanwhile,
“That’s their neighborhood; it’s not our neighborhood,” said Mr. Trump . . ."
The world's economic center has already shifted to the East, so of course, as a nation, we turn ourselves into a lemming pudding for a fool's consumption.
5
Love Asia where life keeps perking through all available fissures in the State dominated complex.
The tough issue on the table will be the 285000 U.S. troops in South Korea, China wants them out, Pyongyang the same, So. Korea divided and for Americans policy nerds un-negotiable. Building not replenishing ‘Asia Allies’ a must. Kim could win big by playing that demand wisely.
After WWII when Japan was defeated by America, I was in first year high school. My older brother he was in his early 40s and he was offered a job as the Dandong Power Plant manager. I visited him in Dandong in 1946 and briefly visited the Dandong city. I still remember vaguely about the city which under the control of Japan since 1931. The city was pretty empty and not densely populated. Not a single tall building. Several months later Mao's Red Army with the help from Soviet Union occupied Dandong and my brother left his job and returned to Beijing. Dandong became part of Mao's territory since 1946. From Manchuria Mao "liberated" North China and East China by April 1949. In looking back, if Truman and Secretary of State Dean Acheson had supported Chiang Kai-shek with sending American troops to China, today the whole world may be different. I always enjoy Jane Perlez reports, a great China expert.
6
You may want to read A Force So Swift: Mao, Truman and the Birth of Modern China, 1949 by Kevin Peraino – it was not so simple -- both Truman and his Sect. of State Dean Acheson helped limit American support for the corrupt Chinese Nationalists, preventing deep U.S. involvement in that nation’s civil war. Chiang Kai-shek’s and his Madame Chiang lost China for a reason. Interesting tale, 1949 interesting year.
2
Everything Trump does benefits 1) Trump, 2) Russia and/or 3) China. No wonder Republicans love Trump so much.
8
The Chinese Century arises. Thanks, GOP. Make China Great Again.
16
When does the Trump Pyongyang break ground with Chinese financing?
8
This communist tyrant has already won by conning the liberal west into accepting and appeasing his criminal regime. What has changed? Rocket boy may sign a worthless piece of paper, like so many in the past, and then break them when he feels like it. The only moral solution is to take all means necessary including military action to free the enslaved people of North Korea. You don't make a deal with the devil.
3
"...may sign a worthless piece of paper, like so many in the past,...". Sounds like you are talking about the actions taken by our current president.
2
Of course. And Trump will not denuclearize the peninsula either. He'll get nothing, drop sanctions, and withdraw. A big bag of hot air.
10
Lets not forget that for thousands of years, Korea was a single unified Country.It was not until the end of WW2 that the country was divided by the interests of the Soviet Union and the U.S as the Cold war began.
The Soviet Union left North Korea, but the U.S has never left South Korea and in 1958 against the terms of the 1953 Armistice, America bought Nuclear weapons to the Peninsula and kept them for many years, threatening both North Korea and China.
America has kept Korea divided and which still stations its troops there, as it still stations troops in Germany and Japan.
No peace treaty ending the Korean War has ever been made or signed because of American refusal to do so.
And one must ask, why should it depend on America at all?
Why has America kept a nation divided for over 60 years and still not made peace with North Korea in all that time?
12
A "single unified country" for thousands of years? Not really. It wasn't really unified to its approximate current borders until the late 14th century. And South Korea must share the blame with the US for the lack of a peace treaty, as the South refused to even sign the armistice. The government at the time was more than content to let the US continue to fight.
4
simple.
use the north korea threat to justify u.s. bases in south korea and japan. the u.s. in effect encircled both china and russia.
the nato gang outlives its usefulness without the 'made up' Russian threat.
Korea was one country and one people when Budhism was taken there (from India) by Emperor Asoka's daughter around 250 BC --that is about two thousand years ago. The Korean kingdom existed as an independent nation, and the Princess taking Budhism there did lots of work moving that Nation ahead. Korea was unified society, it was occupied by the Japanese prior to the War II, and it is true that US --because of the onset of the Cold War and her fear of a Communist China which was established by Mao, this existing situation came into being. General MacArthur took it as his Mission to re-occupy part of Korea, which now is the South Korea. North Korea under Chinese help and tutelage remained as a separate entity. In sum, Koreans are one people, and much will be gained by letting the Koreans decide about the pace and the modalities of their reunion into One People, One Country. The fear of apocalypse if the two parts of Korea is united is misplaced and must be discarded. Let the Koreans decide their own future!
If the sanctions lift, of course, the China-North Korea trade will soar. Once a peace treaty is signed, numerous business investment originated from Seoul, Wall Street and Hong Kong will take place in North Korea like what happened in Vietnam. Did the U.S. government offer any special financial aid to Vietnam for its capitalist development? Almost none. North Korea wants to become another VIetnam; while keeping their Communist-led government, they open their economy to the global capitalism.
Many experts in South Korea speculate that China is actually afraid of losing its monopolistic influence on North Korean economy after the U.S.-NK deal.
3
This is news? This is the whole reason the peace deal is on the table; China is playing chess while the US and allies are playing video games. The big change for Mr. Kim was an assurance by China that he would stay in power and become a major trading partner (read cheap labor) with China. No doubt some assurance that the South would eventually be folded into the mix gave Mr. Kim an assurance of ultimate victory with the west.
Why did this story take so long to get researched? World peace is not part of this equation, and reporters should get their "Nobel" noble ideals out of their story lines.
4
What a difference a few months make. It’s gone from “fire and fury” to ‘let’s let them make a few bucks!’ Trump’s ‘carrot and stick’ approach may not have been necessary. Just a dog and pony show. And, the meeting has not occurred yet. Kim will likely ladle on syrupy praise and Trump will forget the script his handlers gave him and ad lib. Every nation and all peoples deserve a decent life and economy. America’s economic warfare should be banned like chemical weapons. The policy did not exterminate Cuba and, like bombing, isn’t as effective as its cracked up to be. It’s just a form of terrorism (which America has not been able to exterminate either). Hopefully, all parties will be able to grow their economies notwithstanding their potential militarism. Perhaps Trump’s self proclaimed “deal making” acumen will encourage him to aspire to a legacy as an international businessman/broker rather than a wanton butcher. And, perhaps he’ll score those lucrative hotel deals in China and Russia after all.
13
China’s Trade With North Korea Is Set to Soar With a Trump-Kim Deal.
Three months later you get it!
3
Trump will not get denuclearization of N Korea but he could get a major end of tensions. It seems a treaty to officially end the Korean War and a US withdrawal from Korea is possible. Trump talks of being the business genius that can save N Korea when in fact S Korea and China seem to want do put major effort to get N Korea going economically. Certainly the US will lose influence in the region and conversely China's influence will increase. Bolton and his friends will see this as unacceptable. One way or another US bases will be closed in S Korea and Okinawa. If Kim can do what Deng in China it will certainly end tensions and raise the living standards of the impoverished N Korean nation. Perhaps it will end N Korea's rogue stature.
3
There is no obvious reason to oppose a Trump-Kim meeting and a potential deal, but it is our (the media's) responsibility to oppose anything Trump does , so let's make a connection to China. Everyone hates China anyway.
5
China has ALWAYS pulled the north Korean strings nyt is right to point out all connections
1
Kim wants an end to the Korean war and a unified Korea with him in charge of ALL of Korea. Lets see how these negotiations progress!
1
There is no downside to increased China trade with North Korea in the wake of a successful US-Korth Korea deal to stop Kim's nuclear program. There is no real downside to having both China and South Korea take the lead on rebuilding North Korea.
The upside: The North Korean people gain more transparency and a much better life.
5
This would be beyond the best-hoped-for outcome...
Perhaps an immediate first step - make the border between North and South Korea as economically porous as the one between North Korea and China...
Perhaps we could learn from the Chinese that big beautiful border walls don't have the hoped-for long-term impact...
They've since moved on to spending their stone and cement on roads and railbeds and residential high-rises and river crossings - and reactor domes and raising the seabed...
.....
B: Austin, the Cold War is over!
A: Finally those capitalist pigs will pay for their crimes, eh? Eh comrades? Eh?
B: Austin... we won.
A: Oh, smashing, groovy, yay capitalism!
PS
Stay the course, Mr President - this mission could be quite an accomplishment…
2
That's fine except for one thing. North Korea has no money to pay for goods and services. They cannot afford the hotel in Singapore. Article written by another strategic know nothing
2
Breitbart has the true authorities. Try them.
3
And like many of our media outlets, it also has a distinct bias in its reporting.
Both North Korea and China want to get the US military off the peninsula. You couple that with Trump abandoning TPP and telling our allies that the US military is now a pay for protection business and the end game is clear.
The US is also likely to give North Korea favorable trade status allowing both China and South Korea to set up shop to export duty free to the US.
The art of a deal.
where have you been? the good old u.s. has provided the gulf arab oil producers security service for more than half a century. all they need to do is to conduct oil trade in USD.
the unrest in Venezuela? Venezuelan oil is not in western hands and they trade their oil in Chinese Yuan.
Iranian dropped USD in oil trades and we declared Iran a terrorist state.
the gig is up.
1
This details how the "US" sanctions are really Chinese, and will continue exactly as long as China decides to do them. The US has not power to sanction the North more than China chooses.
15
If Trump really manages to sign a peace deal with North Korea, then this will be a great achievement for him, regardless of what his detractors say. And if this means no US Troops on the Koreas and more Chinese influence on North Korea, then that's fine too. Why should the US meddle thousands of miles away from its shores, risking a nuclear war?
But the NYT which supported the Iraq war will undoubtedly feel hurt by the mere thought of the American empire shrinking, even if the alternative entails the impoverishment of millions of people with continued harsh sanctions, or even worse a a deadly, and possibly nuclear, conflict.
22
I believe China's goal is to get the US out of South Korea. It sees uniting the North and South the first step. I don't know if that's good or bad, but it is inevitable.
Mr. Balcombe,
Honestly, are we there to protect the South Koreans? or the Japanese? or are we there for our own interest? we are there because of China and Russia.
north korea is a sideshow from day one.
1
Indeed. Ever since Hideyoshi's day, at the end of the 15th century, «Korea» has been a so-called noa word, used to mean «China» when directly referring to the latter was, for various reasons, taboo. The US troops deployed to South Korea since the signing of the Armistice Agreement of 27 July 1953 are hardly there to protect that country from an attack by its northern neighbour, but to keep watch on and exert pressure on China. The same is true of the US troops deployed to Japan ; the notion that they protect the Japanese, who possess a far more powerful and technically advanced military than the DPRK, from a wanton attack by the latter is absurd....
An agreement in which the DPRK abandons its nuclear-weapons programme and the US ends the deployment of troops to South Korea (which is fully capable of defending itself) would go a long way to fulfilling the common goal enunciated by Messrs Kim and Moon in the Panmunjom Declaration of 28 April this year, i e «of realising, through complete denuclearisation, a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula». It is unlikely that this goal can be attained in one fell swoop, but any steps taken towards that end during a meeting between Messrs Kim and Trump on 12 June would be most welcome....
Henri
Not necessarily. Sure China would be able to do more of what they are currently doing illegally legally, but a significant deal would open up the border with SK which is currently completely sealed to commerce. NK may also welcome SK commerce and also diplomatic relations to try to fend off it's much, much larger neighbor somewhat. Of course, any speculation on who might benefit most is essentially moot before we have any idea what if anything is agreed to.
3
A summit between Trump and Kim really benefits China, in two ways. First, since North Korea has already dismantled its nuclear testing facilities, Trump, acting in rare good faith (driven by ego), will offer the country economic aid, reducing China's cost of support, without threatening China's regional hegemony. Second, North Korea is a proxy state for China and China's most loyal regional ally. By trading with the US and buying US goods, North Korea acts as a distribution channel and supplier for China of America goods, easily resold to China. This back door enables China to enter critical US markets by proxy and creates another portal for gaining critical US technologies.
China is skilled at trade as a strategic tool, leveraged for influence and progress; Trump's sole focus is the balance sheet and victory. Trump wants to win. China wants to advance.
27
Not a Trumper. But since we don't know if there will be a trump-Kim deal, never mind what it might entail if does happen, this article is pure speculation and as to results. The cards yet to be played.
11
Get your allegations straight, is Trumpy a Russian stooge or a Chinese one? Perhaps both? All he works towards yields enormous benefits to the Russians and the Chinese. He doesn't really have to do much to make things better here - Obama's taken care of that. Well, ok, Trumpy tries to stick it to Obama (actually, the tens of millions whose lives were much improved because of the Obama policies).
4
So let us see .... China will get benefits from having an agreement according to this article, but just a week ago the article said China would benefit by canceling Trump-Kim meeting. So either way China, even with the opposite conditions, will benefit. That is interesting. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/asia/trump-xi-jinping-north-kor...
13
If a peace treaty is signed then the United States will find its days in South Korea numbered. China will first overwhelm the North and then decisively head South. The ultimate goal of China is to dislodge and replace and the United States as the dominant power of the Pacific.
I believe they will succeed. Mr. Obama's so-called "Pivot to the Pacific" was weak and ineffective. Mr. Trump's destruction of international alliances with friends and foes alike is on course for more chaos.
By mid-century the U.S. will be supplanted by Communist China as the premier super power of the Pacific. Unless of course we wake up and make some dramatic changes. China shares other borders. North Korea is low hanging fruit.
India, Pakistan and Russia are in China's back yard too. The U.S. needs a comprehensive strategic plan that includes economic, military, diplomatic and trade relations with the nations of the Pacific, South East Asia. If we fall to recognize the full scope of what will be impacted by peace with North Korea then in a few short years we'll have very deep regrets and greater problems than now.
9
The US leaving South Korea is a major goal of the North and China. However, it is also a major goal of many in the South, who like the people of Okinawa, and previously in the Philippines, are aware of the downsides of being a large permanent base for foreign troops.
Not all in the South want the US gone, but many do, and the seed is there in the politics of the South.
29
The summit has worked out precisely as the Chinese intended it to. With the Chinese economy weakening they needed someone to take on the North to free up assets needed for their military build up, cyber technology and their push to be the dominant power in the Pacific. As our president says its their neighborhood not ours. How short sighted can you be. We will spend billions on the North, they will not give up their nuclear weapons and at some point in the future the North will call for unification of Korean with the North pushing to control any form of government created. This summit is more than our president understands, he has not studied the situation or history of the Chinese and North Korean peoples. He is going in there only hoping that Kim likes him and he will give him all the aid he wants and the Chinese will be laughing at him seeing a future Pacific controlled by them.
22
Give me a break. N Korea economy is peanuts compared to that of China, and so is the its population.
Whatever the Chinese can get out of N Korea is insignificant with regard to the overall Chinese economy. They are in it mostly for strategic reasons.
6