The analogy between Trump is entirely apt. But there are many other strong-arm kleptocratic leaders that are apparently role models for Trump. He longs to be an absolute monarch ruling by decree for life, using the nation as his own commercial enterprise to enrich himself and his cronies, and he has no shame in pursuing this goal.
This sounds like Putin and Netanyahu, both of whom he admires and envies. The difference: all of these rulers, Erdogan, Netanyahu and Putin are corrupt, but they are also efficient and competent at running things, however heavy-handed and ruthless. It was said in praise of Mussolini "he made the trains run on time." With Trump, we get the crook, but we don't get anything near administrative competence. It is the worst-case scenario.
14
Thank you for calling a spade a spade. I wish the European governments would follow.
These people discovered all they needed to do was to appeal to the rural dumb and they could begin to plunder entire nations.
6
It should be obvious that quality leadership is good for a stable economy and therefore business, but for some reason billionaires want us to trust Trump, to give him time.
Trump doesn't need more time. He's a failure and they were wrong to bet on him. And none of them will come forward to right all the wrongs that they helped to bring about.
At least in America you are innocent until proven guilty. The Turkish government put people in jail because of computer code.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/terrifying-how-a-single-line-of-co...
5
We have a criminal President, it already is a crises.
16
Having spent time in Turkey, I feel great sadness for the people who I met in Turkey, who were probably members of a liberal elite, who believed in the secular dream of Kamal Ataturk, they believed in the protection of a strong military to protect the status quo. They saw Erdogan in the beginning as a kind of joke, maybe the way we saw Trump. He was a conservative from the boonies. Over the years, It got worse, worse, like the frog in the pan as it starts to boil, and now it seems that Turkey has left democratic protections. I hope we avoid the same pitfall
23
"What we get instead are long stretches of complacency followed by sudden panic."
I'm not exactly sure how this connects (though I think it does), but that is exactly the classic description of working as an anesthesiologist.
6
I think it would help the world a lot of you would be willing to get the basic arithematic correct on trade.
So when you talk about the cost of assembling an iphone in China, you should compare it to an assumed US living wage ($15/hour), and that changes your numbers enormously.
Of course you can't change all of the numbers globally because it would throw a wrench into the system that wouldn't work. But between China and the US, it is time when you can start using that number!
Be honest!
1
I'm surprised that there are commenters on this article who have bought the Trump propaganda drummed into every tweet and Fox News show--that Trump shows no signs of corruption, collusion or authoritarianism, and that the "Obama administration" spied on the Trump campaign. It really is possible to fool some of the people all of the time.
23
Erdogan is not Trump
Mr. Erdogan scheduled a new election, ONE month from now on June 24th, 2018. The fourth election in 6 years.
In the US we will have to wait another 2 1/2 years.
Democracy may be messy, but it is the best available system. Calling its outcome populism, or worse , is not helpful.
As to Turkey's economic looming economic troubles it is the outcome of "stimulus spending" originated debt (GDP increased
7.4% last year.)
2
“In America, stocks are up and the economy keeps chugging along.”
The notion that stocks are up (remember the famous advice of Andrew Carnegie) is of course relative depending on the timeframe examined. The DJIA and the S&P 500 peaked right around the time of the tax cut passage and have plateaued at a lower level since then. The word “correction” has been frequently mentioned, particularly since Trump’s rant about tariffs. One might ordinarily think that the announced orgy of share buybacks would drive up share prices, but not so far.
3
The separation of powers provision of the US Constitution is designed to check the authoritarian model of government that you have insightfully sensed in the Erdogan government.
Americans need to be concerned because the potential for harming the underpinnings of the American society is clearly present.
A single party government like the one we have now needs to be changed to give legislative branch more power than we have seen thus far. Of particular concern is the potential for politicizing the Judicial Branch of government that is critical to the fundamental primacy of law and justice.
The two year election cycle is an important feature of our constitutional representative government and this year's November 6th non-Presidential election is extremely important because all American's can turn-out to express their concern by voting for candidates who could strengthen the Legislative Branch of our National Government. The entire membership of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be standing for election.
This is an important election. American's need to participate and understand that the strongest message that can be sent to the Executive Branch is a clear new majority in the House and the Senate to begin the important work required to really strengthen the economy by increasing the effectiveness of health and education, achieving politically acceptable income distribution, investing in public works that broadly benefit all Americans
13
Just think back to the financial crisis of 2008 and imagine Trump and crew in charge? Yes pretty scary isn't it!
21
If it all falls apart it will all be Obama's fault, Hillary's fault or better yet the deep state.
14
"Basically, as long as the economy isn’t being hit by major shocks, political posturing hardly matters. Someone looking at U.S. growth in G.D.P. or employment over the past few years who didn’t know we’d had an election in 2016 would have no reason to suspect that anything important had changed."
But someone looking at the stock market would absolutely suspect that something changed. Please reconcile, Mr. Krugman.
(PS - I agree with the premise of your article and your viewpoint on both leaders. Just would like to hear your reconciliation of your perception of the economy and the performance of the stock market in the past 18 months.)
I am looking at the S&P performance over the last 10 years. At it worst, the index was at around 700 in 2009. It’s around 2800 now. The trend has been an even rise. What you really don’t see is a flat line under Obama followed by a sharp rise under Trump. The perception of a sudden boom is simply that, perception. It’s not a realistic view of long term performance.
5
Deregulation is one. Another is market boost with the goal of liquidation under lower tax rates.
stocks are bought by pension funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, by banks, and by individuals. all of them share one thing: they have extra money to put to use in something otber than survival.
as far as wealthy imdividuals are concerned: if they already have all the food, homes, yachts, clothes, artworks, and real estate they need, where else are they going to stash the extra money they got from Trump's massive tax cuts - in the mattress?
money, to me, seems a lot like a tidal sea: it sloshes back and forth in relation to things like the phase of the moon, but that doesn't mean there is more of it overall. it just runs to didderent places.
1
Well, Paul is still out to tag Trump for causing our problems, even though he recently announced that the GOP Congress of venal vassals had a lot to do with them. I would like to see more about the latter engineers of idiocy.
2
Trump is hardly Erdogan. And the US is hardly Turkey. The comparison is more than insulting.
Trump cannot even get his travel band enacted and his wall built. If he were really like Erdogan, both would be enacted / built by now. Erdogan has consolidated his power and has no trouble getting his way, except when he tried to get Gulen extradited from the US.
In no way are there credible accusations that Trump has abused his power or that his administration is corrupt. We are not talking about previous business dealings but how he is running his administration.
And for all of the talk about collusion of the Trump campaign with Russia, it now looks more like the Obama administration spied on / surveilled the Trump campaign before the election. In that respect, looks like Obama is a better comparison to Erdogen than Trump is....
3
The Trump team sure does make a lot of accusations... no evidence ever produced...
8
Key statement......"You need officials who understand what's happening........and have enough credibility that markets give them the benefit of the doubt."
Heaven help us if a crisis hits America.
6
I thought the confidence fairy and the bond vigilantes were derp.
Where's the Trump base outrage at $3.5 million little Scotty Pruitt's extra security cost US -The taxpayer. Or the FACT that in one year Trump has golfed more than Obama in three or more. And has cost US, the tax payer millions in extra expense for every profit generated trip to golf or visit his properties. And for rent and extra security at Trump tower. Of course IF he showed US his tax returns like he "promised" he would... we'd know a lot more.
Rather than drain any swamp the trump team IS itself toxic waste. And they continue filling it up with more of the same.
18
One thing Trump doesn't have is near total control of the media that Erdogan enjoys in Turkey, where every TV channel is "Fox News," and all newspapers speak in one old-Pravda-like voice in support of Sultan's policies.
There's an election coming, and you'd think the coming economic crisis would jeopardize his chances. But the narrative his supporters hear 24/7 is that Turkish economy is under attack by outside forces that want to bring Erdogan down. They are constantly assured that once the election is over, he will be able to take care of business, and Turkey will be on its way to becoming a 21st century Ottoman Empire.
Turkey (and Russia) are two good examples why responsible media are vitally important for any semblance of democracy.
20
Two key points.
Firstly, things I've read recently. 60+% of Americans have only $500 in savings to handle an emergency (how much of an emergency can you cover with $500!?). In 2017 (or 2016) there were almost 700,000 personal bankruptcies due to medical costs (only in the US - never happens in Canada & other more developed countries). About 50% of older Americans don't have enough money (pensions if any plus savings) to provide for retirement. Individual credit card debt is at an all high.
The US govt. has topped out its credit card too. And the internal & rest of the world push back on tariffs & US foreign policy attempts shows that US 'power' is now limited, the current US admin. is incompetent, & other big countries are taking advantage of that.
So in the event of an 'emergency' neither half of Americans nor their govt. have enough 'cushion' to see them thru it.
Secondly, any free thinking person with a reasonable education & preferably with a lot of life experience (I'm 80) knows that Trump is a wannabee dictator &, much worse, a wannabee wartime president (like Bush).
With his large immovable base he is likely to succeed.
I'm glad that I'm a Canadian.
13
“What if it does?”
Hard to see that ending well.
3
Make this much simpler:
Imagine don the con and his merry band of swamp monsters trying to cope with the last Republican crash in 2008.
Imagine these buffoons trying to restructure the banking sector, or reassure markets that the economic system is not going to collapse. Imagine them trying to save the auto industry, or devise policies to first staunch the economic bleeding like the Obama stimulus did, and then subtle policies like the temporary and largely unannounced with holding cut for Social Security to keep the recovery moving.
Bet most readers do not even know that Obama and Democrats cut social security withholding be a small increment so that most people would not really notice, and would therefore just spend the extra money every month. Subtle, and ingenious.
12
I immensely admire Professor Krugman, however respectfully he is out of his depth on Turkey, and because I admire him greatly I hope he sticks strictly to economic issues as does a fellow Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz.
In spite of all of its flaws, the Justice and Development Party headed by Erdogan has delivered a successful model for Muslim countries, one which combines faith with free market capitalism and democratic norms and institutions, albeit lately somewhat veering to illiberal democracy. Consequently, over the last 8 years it has delivered one of the strongest emerging markets economies in the world with attendant rise in per capital GDP, when adjusted for PPP.
We may rightly question the turn toward illiberal democracy, but the fact is that Gulen supporters did stage a military coup, and tried to overthrow democratically elected JDP and kill Erdogan. Indeed, for a deeply secular person like me it is hard to admit, but the fact is previous secular governments delivered nothing but economic stagnation and military coups. I am saddened that ever since Erdogen stood up to Israel and walked away from Davos in protest to Israel’s repression of the Palestinians in West Band and Gaza, the pro-Israeli American press has had a drumbeat of negative pieces about Turkey, with a democratically elected government, yet ignores deeply corrupt Saudi Arabia and other illiberal and corrupt governments off the hook, Israel among them.
1
I am a Turk too and we have no business getting into defending Arabs. Is he trying to be the Caliphate?
Arabs stabbed us in the back in WWI and they have been paying for it since then. We should not have Syrians in our country becoming citizens. Everywhere in Turkey has Arab writings. I never want to see that. Erdgoan contributed so much to the Syrian problem and now we have 3-4 million Syrians getting free health care and salaray every month. Is that the guy you are defending? Thanks but no thanks
2
I hear trumpers defense along these lines a lot: “But what has he really done to you personally? I mean, come on..”
Which brings up an interesting question: would Americans accept Fascism, if their 401Ks were unaffected? Would they eschew elections entirely, if their personal circumstances slightly improve, or stayed the same? If the arrests and the roundups take place elsewhere, “illegals” being sent somewhere else out of sight, would they shrug?
They already are.
15
The answer is yes they would. Scary enough?
6
We should sever ties with Turkey until the nation admits it's role as the perpetrators of the Armenian genocide. Like Poland in World War II, it is in serious denial about it's shameful, murderous past.
4
I've heard, although I cannot verify, that turkeys can drown in a rainstorm because they're so stupid that when they look up into the rain, they drown. I know it's no joke that we have somehow elected such a turkey President. Nothing has changed since January 2017, except that now it's May 2018. Come November the people will finally speak.
3
Erdogan is now Turkey's shame as Trump is now ours. Following the playbook of other strongmen of the past, he uses the same tactics Trump is using of a fantastical view of reality, no understanding of science or history, surrounding himself with like-minded lackeys and con-men.
61
What's even worse is when the economic crisis is a homegrown debacle and the institutions/persons responsible go unpunished. I'm thinking the 2008-2009 mortgage crisis and recession. Sure the reaction is more regulations - which somehow magically vanish once things superficially seem to get better.
Turkey, the US, anywhere else, so much of the whole environment is predicated on assumptions that the "band will play on" whether the economic waters be calm or in a tempest. The long term resolution is to hold those responsible, responsible, and not give them a pass. But that means weeding out corruption, which often buys immunity to eradication. Still, the alternative, doing nothing, is far worse all around. For everyone.
4
(...)Turkey had a currency crisis in 1958 and in 1994, but since then, the market has evolved immensely. Basically, in 1958 the Turkish economy was a small, structurally agricultural sector dominated economy. In 1994, Turkey had no independent banking regulatory authorities and had expansionary monetary policies causing hyper-inflation. Nowadays, the Turkish economy is structurally highly industrialized and since 2001 has independent banking regulatory authorities and compared to pre-2001 levels relatively lower inflation. Despite these facts inflation in Turkey is still above 10 % causing a pressure for devaluation. The lowest annual inflation level in Turkey in the last decade was 3.9 percent despite tight monetary policies. So there is to expect that consumption behavior structurally applies upward pressure on inflation. This might be due to psychological reasons but also keeping the internal market attractive. The central banks raising of interest rates [2 days ago] could be regarded as an attempt for balancing exchange rate effects on inflation. Where on the other hand, all these economic facts cause a hot propaganda agenda for all political parties in the eve of presidential and general elections which will be held at once in Turkey approximately in a month.
Erdogan is the father of the ISIS mess in Syria. Certainly he is a world class opportunist. As with many such authoritarian politicians lots of people get killed and he just keeps on going. Failure doesn't seem to harm his position. He is the master of creating villains that threaten his constituency. He has made a living taking down secularists with out creating a theocracy like in Iran. Ataturk was the model Turkish secularist post Ottoman hero but Erdogan wants to break the mold and be a pan regional Moslem hero like a Nasser without the socialism.
4
What if the economic risks cited by Paul Krugman in his last paragraph "actually become very serious challenges?" They will. We don't know when but history tells us that they will. We can take that to the bank.
Although "the [2017] tax cut [might be] having little discernible effect, good or bad" at this moment, Dr. Krugman knows better than most that serious effects will be felt in the long run. Ballooning deficits mean tighter monetary policy, higher interest rates, and economic constriction.
Increased national debt also means cuts in basic social services, higher debt servicing costs, and lower investment in the human and material infrastructure required to keep any viable economy humming over time.
Add in exponential spending growth on an already over-bloated military, then all these negative effects are magnified. Oh, there will be blood all right; it's just that the thousand paper cuts will kill us more slowly and painfully than a sudden stab to the heart.
16
I seem to recall a Republican Party that once touted its "fiscal responsibility" and aversion to increasing the national debt. During the Obama administration, the Republicans did a lot of garment-rending over "mortgaging our children's futures." But maybe I just dreamed all that.
19
There are two other things that Erdogan and The Donald have in common: each is in thrall to his country's right-wing religious fanatics (which, in Trump's case, doesn't even include himself) and each has a bete noire within his own populace- for Erdogan it's the Kurds, for Trump undocumented immigrants. Both men are skilled at stirring up and exploiting agita, which seems to compensate for deficiencies in character, experience, intellect and much else.
46
'What if' does not count until it does. The stock market is a gamble and many even those who see the dangers ride the tide of easy money and the GOP whose motto is grab the money while you can. They know from our last Great Recession that irresponsible policies lead to a recession, but who cares as long as the money people can be bailed out by the government and the cash is rolling in now. And it will only be the people on the edge who will lose their homes, pay high interest rates and lose their jobs who never got a pay raise anyway. Good by Dodd Frank which only muddied the rich man's waters.
4
By the time that serious challenges arise the Democrats will be in power and the whole cycle will start all over again.
8
Yup -- cleaning up Republican messes.
6
Understand that climbing interest rates can exert great pain on an economy, even one as robust as the U.S. Aside from higher credit card, auto, mortgage, and education interest rates you have the diminished value of savings. And, savings are scarce enough among the 70+ million baby boomers retiring and seeking costly healthcare in the coming years to alarm us. Thanks brilliant Republicans for spending lavishly, amassing debt while scalping revenues. Oh and, bankruptcy is not an option.
17
Rising interest rates will do one more thing: raise the rates that the federal government, now with 2 trillion less in revenues, will have to borrow at. This will explode the debt maintenance budget line item and make our bloated deficits even worse down the road.
4
Well, the folks who bailed out the bankers after the Crash of 2008 decided, in their infinite wisdom, to recapitalize the banks by relieving them of the need to pay interest on deposits. Thank you, working savers.
Now the economy orbits the zero lower bound of interest rates, a sort of economic black hole.
2
Don't worry, our kids will pay the bill.
.... and theirs and theirs and theirs ....... ad infinitum
3
Yes. But not Donny Trump's or Koch Bros, et al their families will be swell.
And let's not forget the free (at taxpayer expense) lifetime 24k health insurance congress gets AND to keep their millions in campaign funds.
Who else (besides me) sees something terribly WRONG in that.
Kakistocracy is what we've got with Trump/Pence and their enablers.
VOTE Them OUT
4
"Sooner or later a false belief bumps up against realilty, usually on a battlefield." - George Orwell, IN FRONT OF YOUR NOSE (1946)
10
Dornbusch's Law seems like a generalization of Ernest Hemingway 's description of how you go bankrupt - How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
12
I had the exact same thought! Glad to see there are some of us out there still knowledgeable about literature.
2
i love this little gem... thanks.. life imitates art.
I had to go back to check the name of the of the columnist who came up with this provocative title!
It is neither Roger Cohen nor ,more possibly, chrostof
Sadly it turned out be that of a gentleman for whom I had great respect?
It is not only that !M Krigman m is way here way out of his Fields of knowledge ,plainly obvious on this case , but that he seems to have succumbed to what is become the sacred book of Zionism and Imperialism of rabid ,unthinking anti Island anti Arab lore!
1
WHAT IN THE WORLD about this column leads you to believe Prof. Krugman made any anti Island (sic) or anti Arab statements? The column clearly indicates he's against incompetency and dictatorship--and he believes Erdogan fits both definitions.
6
Unexpectedly, from Prof Krugman, a very badly written article. What, please, is going on in Turkey that warrants comment of this sort? What are the economic dislocations to which Erdogan and his advisors must respond? We are given no instances, no specifics. Was a paragraph omitted in transit from professor to page?
1
I will give it to you.
1) The fall of Turkish Lira 20% in the last month.
2) Acts like dictator. Sooner or later it will come out.
5
The Great Recession was not an accident, it was the result of willful collective stupidity. Does anyone know where we can find some willful collective stupidity in the current administration?
We know the tax giveaway was a political giveaway to the overclass, that will undermine our ability to withstand and recover from the next Great Recession, which will hit somewhere about January 19, 2021. Why? Because taxes must be raised, and the business outlook of the overclass will be simple - stop investing, hide your money in tax shelters, dig your financial trench, and hunker down while Democrats have to deal with a yet another great recession caused by willful stupidity.
What is left of the muddle class will shoulder the burden of cuts to everything they benefit from, while the overclass abides in tax-sheltered hideaways lounging by the pool and taking recreational drugs.
This dystopian future awaits us all, unless the American electorate suddenly learns from its mistakes.
Yea, that’ll happen.
17
Erdogan's regime rests on the same three legged stool as Trumps: Race (the Kurds), religion, and corruption.
16
I normally find your articles distasteful and one sided but today's was quite helpful. Thank you.
The photograph of Erdogan and wife w/covered head mocks the banner above them of Erdogan and Ataturk, the leader who pulled Turkey into the modern world by removing veils, among many changes. How does the current economic climate match rising levels of conservatism in that country as in this country, altho of course Trump's newfound Christianity is for the evangelicals, not all who know it smells. The infamous tax reform bill pushed by Trump and his lackeys in the US Congress will not benefit the country in spite of the promises and with Dodd Frank gone may have severe repercussions. Turkey has always been a bridge between the east and west in that part of the world, but now with Erdogan they seem to be moving toward the east with the push toward their Islamic past rather than the west. And in all this, yes, blood and soil seem to be part of changes.
8
Turkey is running election in a month. This is a snap election for Erdogan . If he can steal it , he lives , If he loses , all hell will breake loose in Turkey.
Either condition Erdogan wins or loose, Turkey is heading a very deep economic crisis.
What similarities exists with Erdogan and Trump governing style. You cannot imagine but if you follow closely , it looks like a mirror image.
There isno political deceny exist
No respect to law or democracy
Media is totally enslaved ( Turkey) after a long warfare with newspapers
Corruption is abhorrent level.
Science is ignored all together.
If you are In America , background reserves may help to weather thsi times.
But You are in Turkey or Venezuela , you hit the wall full speed and degradation and loss unbeleievable.
In all cases , one fundamental lesson learned, it is called base voters who sold their soul to devil and they can do everything for partisanship in expense of the future of a nation.
Interestingly thsi ratio is the same in Turkey and USA, 30-40% and they are predominantly right wing.
5
It seems a rather quick blow off for the standard text's take on a country that has sent out IOUs equal (or exceeding) its full gnp over the past couple decades....that country being US, to the tune of 20 trillion plus IOUs ($$$) out there as yet unspent back here...
The text book says a "renormalization" to a new, lower valuation for such profligate currencies is the cure for the disease (short of foreigners buying up everything of value in the US).
That we trade in our own currency may provide some energy to the "anti gravity" machine for some time (a long time coming, even) BUT even being the current all world denarii and the extortion factor for the schlubs stuck with the IOUs (if you sell, they sell, everyone sells! & your stash turns to ash...don't dare sell) only builds the catastrophe behind the damn, so to speak.
Seems to me wise heads would not toss the textbook on the trash heap now
Krugman ends his column noting that " it seems safe to say that the Trump team isn’t ready for any of these possibilities."
Members of Trump's team know that there is one and only one way to be noticed by their boss - suck up to him and shower praises on him. They know that the only thing The Donald hears and understands is words - only simple words, mind you - that praise his knowledge, leadership, and deal making.
As for Trump, he is least worried about an economic meltdown or a trade war or a real war as long as the Trump family business survives, grows, and makes more money.
The bottom line: Both Trump and his cabinet members are in it for themselves, not for the welfare of the country. I can only hope that more Americans see this naked truth and rapacious manner in which this administration is plundering.
9
Undoubtedly, when the next bubble explodes around here, which may not really be that far off thanks to rising deficits, debt, energy costs, interest rates, and international trade chaos, Mr. Trump and his zombie like followers will blame on everyone else but him.
5
On 7th June 2015 during the general elections in Turkey, the ruling AK Party lost the required majority to form the government by its own. An early election decision was taken and on 1st November 2015 during an early election AK Party regained the majority of voters to form a government. So remaining in power since 2002 did not mean for the government to raise their support to round 70 % or 90 % as it is known in some of the most dictatorships. Their support eroded in 13 years and for 2015, they were initially unable to form a government. It can be read as a fact that many of the Turks disliked the government but when it came to make a decision at least in the 2015 early election they possibly disliked the alternative more for a series of reasons. My very own long term observation tells me that it's not authoritarianism where Turkish parties differ. Unfortunately Turkish voters cannot change the dose of authority by electing a different party and they are well aware of such fact. Turkey recently changed its constitution and now among many two strong candidates run for presidency. There's a harsh competition. Many regard the timing of the currency fluctuation as a conspiracy. But on the other hand, it is a statistical fact that Turkish corporations have high external dept even compared to other developing countries. The criticized government did much to reduce the central government dept. Such is now at lowest levels compared to any European country. (...)
1
Yes, Turkish Government debt is very low, Also Turkish governmnet existince ( manufacturing, agriculture etc) is minimum too. Turkey is the dream of American private sector mentality people. Government abdicate everything and sold thrift level price to their party crony businesman ( like Putin but way worse). Today Turks are asking what we are producing in this country , nothing. So Government is nowhere to be found so their debt does not exist, practically entire government spending constitutes two big item
1- Erdogan palace life style
2- Religious affair agency budget ( Diyanet)
you cannot find the Government in any place in Turkey
Education and health literally orphan or left to private sectors mercy.
Yes Turkey is doing very well when it comes to goverment debt compared Europe. Any how no responsibility , no obligation to serve people.
Three new transportation projects which they are just draining money from govenrment pocket ( bridges and Tunnels) to private sector , people are avoiding to use.
1
Turkey's automotive industry has boomed in the last decade. FDI inward stocks must have been amounting to 16 billion USD +. American, French, Italian and Japanese companies mainly...Could be one of 5 top FDI attractors in such industry. From iron and steel to the aircraft industry many manufacturing sectors grew not just the traditional ones like textiles but also electronics for example. The main problem of Turkish manufacturing is that there is a lot of smearing towards the Turkish identity around the world. This is one of the reasons the Turkish economy cannot create national brands as easily as elsewhere. Markups are under a negative pressure due to such reason. Expected returns of foreign trade also turn out to be lower. It's easy to smear Turks and this mostly pays off. That's a pity.
Why do I talk in terms of such extreme consequences? It is because of these forums. There's no other way to get attention.
Sorry, people, but we abstain forevermore...
"by politicizing law offers a disturbing preview of how Trump may become the authoritarian ruler he clearly wants to be." It is honestly about time the media say this and say this loud from the mountain tops.
5
Yea, I'm pretty close to feeling presidential.
#1: You just have felt death at the doorstep and accepted it
#2: You must think you can restate anything anyway
#3: You must not fear your familie's future. Here I fail.
Come back in 10 years.
If or when a crisis arises, we're in good shape with Steve Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow at the helm.
Wait . . .
5
Does real, substantial, objective progress exist? Is it even possible? Is life better today than 500 years ago, 5,000 years ago? In some ways, yes; in other ways, no.
Some poet said (it's been a while since college English) that a quality life does not depend upon quantity. Maybe a life spent in Gaza is superior to a king's, in many important ways. "Life is neither good or evil, but only a place for good and evil" (Marcus Aurelius).
Experts in all fields, including religion, philosophy, and science, claim that they can lead us to a better life, the good life. But we still have widespread famine, pestilence, war, pain, and needless suffering, con't we? So is the glass half-full or half-empty? (We probably decide based on what we need to believe or are forced to believe.)
To a thinking person, life is a comedy; to a feeling person, life is a tragedy; or, to hedge your bets, you can say that life is a tragicomedy. To insist that your viewpoint is the only correct one, or that there even is a correct viewpoint, is foolish. But I'm unsure even of that.
Maybe the best thinking is that we shouldn't think about it so much. Stuff happens. Thus it is that “The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry” (John Steinbeck said it, but how does he know this?).
John Steinbeck knew it, and we all know it somewhere in our deepest darkest, but Trump seems to have somehow skipped that class. He never picked up on the fact that you would have to *have* some kind of "best-laid plan" in order to go awry properly.
It's not a paradox that the best thing that could happen to the U.S. right now would be an economic crisis. Although Trump's base would not blame him, those who have not drunken his kool-aid would vote the scoundrel out of office and the country could start cleaning up the wreckage.
1
Do presidents need grades? What about progress reports?
Erdogan’s economy is failing and he’s defying Turkish economic officials in ways that likely hurt it further. Seems he’s no longer on his way to a passing grade, but it’s unclear he can lose an election. Maybe at his school the only grade that counts is the one he gives you. But a crisis can still show us what’s behind the curtain.
What about on our end? We have a lot of watchdogs showing Trump’s causing damage, but it’s not clear whether our media is more focused on the reality or the Trump show. I think Krugman and others have offered great insight and context, but it looks like large enough majorities don’t get it yet (59% ?).
Trump’s base feels like they’re winning, despite the numbers losing insurance, unfair taxes, etc. And Fox is still popular and fawning, so some independents must feel that too. Unless Dems win large popular vote majorities, many of us may only get a look behind the curtain if a crisis hits. And if we wait for a crisis, we might get caught with idiots in charge that we can’t redirect or replace, like Turks holding the bag while Erdogan struts.
So, I wonder how people will sort out whether Trump’s team’s been good for us or the other team’s better. We can do it ideologically or voting our values, but convincing non-Dems might take more than that, and the Trump show is all over the media. It’s fake, but it sells.
Are there good progress reports? Any that might even swing Fox viewers?
People with religious political agendas are simply not trustworthy. Their "God" is invariably a projection of themselves onto the whole universe, which places them above the law in their own minds.
5
Erdogan is the text book example of that description.
2
There are a few more aspects of Erdogan's regime that should give pause.
- the black lists of political opponents that had clearly been drawn long before the coup attempt (assuming it was a real coup attempt and not a staged one. Putsch 101 teaches that the first thing you do is arrest the leaders.)
- When the economy starts failing, jingoism become the last refuge of the scoundrel. Erdogan has attacked Syria and made military incursions into Greece and has even talked of children becoming 'martyrs' for their country. Trump obviously relishes whatever chance he gets to show off his big guns.
Authoritarianism never ends well, not even for the citizens who cheer it on.
80
The various authoritarian movements throughout the world have much in common.
State 1 – subversion of the liberal world order, and globalization in particular, so that a few amass great wealth and economic power. The masses willingly allow this to occur as they are led to believe that this is the natural order to things and in the end everyone will better off for it.
Stage 2 – use of this wealth and economic power by the few to amass great political power either directly (the Trump model) or indirectly (the Koch model).
State 3 – dismantling of the liberal world order by the few so as to prevent challenges to the wealth, economic power, and political power held by the few.
State 4 – the rise of neo-feudalism wherein all wealth and power are privately held by the few. One example of this is the recent prediction that public stock ownership will disappear in the future.
The US is somewhere between stages 2 and 3. And the reference to stages is intentional as this is a cancer that will consume every one of us with no foreseeable good outcomes.
1
Even astute scholar like Krugman ignore the obvious. When Trump and Erdogan are compared, one important commonality between their rise to power got lost in the analysis: they are both products of the very flawed political system called "Democracy". Trump & Erdogan are chosen by the people. The know-nothing leaders are put into power by the know even less voters. Turkey & USA are not the only example. Philippines, Hungary, Poland, Italy, etc are all in the same predicament. All swept up in the populism wave. Don't forget Brexit.
Such phenomenon is not new. People see what they wish to see, hear what they wish to hear. You can fool them most of the time.
David Adler analyzed data from two of the most comprehensive studies of public opinion carried out in over 100 countries and wrote the op-ed: "Centrists Are the Most Hostile to Democracy, Not Extremists". What do centrists know that the extremists who so polarized nations don't? Democracy exercised through the voting booth is a terrible political system.
Wake up. Just telling people to vote in November might change a few faces but it is the same reality show, same fantasy movie script. Enough already.
3
Not to defend Trump - who is indeed a wannabee dictator (who might yet achieve his goal with GOP help) - expertise in economics is an illusion. Back in the good-old-days of Treasury Sec's Rubin & Summers and Fed Chairman Greenspan (great 'experts' all) the groundwork was laid for the 2007 financial collapse. To paraphrase physicist Richard Feynman ("if you think you understand quantum mechanics then you don't"), anybody who thinks they understand economics does not.
Trump and his GOP Congress sycophants have been quite lucky so far. The Obama boom has continued. It’s allowed Trump to take credit for President Obama’s wise policies that led to our decent recovery. When the next recession comes, Trump’s approval will descend to the 20s, which is basically his hard core base of deplorables.
3
Doesn't anyone see the parallels to the 1930's here? History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme.
2
We know that the Trump administration will fail America in a dramatic way on Friday. We just don’t know which one.
In literature and real life, we laugh at society's giants who surround themselves with sycophants and flunkies, soothsayers who say sooth only when sooth scratches the right itch, pampered people who pretend that they are rough and tough and solely responsible for keeping the world spinning on its axis, while hiding from the brutal reality faced by so many. We snicker when we see such characters in comic strips.
But then so many of us emulate them, gating ourselves into communities where we can deny that violence against people like Sterling Brown even exists, where we can declare that America is post-racial and that those whose parents and grandparents were red-lined and prevented from sharing in American prosperity should just get over it.
Macbeth was confronted with a trio of cackling witches who predicted his rise and doom. In post-Shakespearean America, the role of the witches is played by Doocy and friends drawling falsehoods to a congregation that thrives on artificial air.
Real Americans have become Lionel Barrymore in "It's A Wonderful Life," seeing meanness toward the unfortunate as its own reward and swathed in the conviction that their choices, from rage against gun control to unwillingness to hear Any Inconvenient Truth, are terrific, the best.
After a generation of indoctrination, a media blitz has elected its own President, and the viewers are likely to want to renew him for another season. The consequences, however dire, will come later, forsooth.
Yes, the trump team is ready for nothing. They have proved it with their NK fire drill. They prove it every day as a senior staff member or the VP is making one official statement while our dear leader is twitting the exact opposite. They also have a house built of cards [lies] that gets bigger every day. If a crises comes along that requires facts and reality to fix that house will collapse in a NY second.
2
To paraphrase a famous saying:
Economics is years of of boredom sprinkled with a few incidences of sheer terror.
2
That quote should be in every high school life planning course "Crises take longer to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine". Hungary, Russia, Turkey, USA ( the model in these countries is either real, soft or aspirational.. autocracy) ..or actually, mafia states. But they don't work for anyone, save the cronies. Hello Singapore! Some democracy is what we need to develop a proper economy but will the corporations and oligarchs agree?.
“...there’s no sign that investors are losing faith in US solvency”
The likelihood of US insolvency is equal to the likelihood of a computer screen running out of numbers. Krugman must know this. Obviously the investors do. Why contribute to this harmful confusion?
The parallels between two despots, Erdogan and Trump, are remarkably similar, except that in these United States, Trump is still trying to destroy the legal armor opposing his corrupt abuse of power. Just let's not be complacent, as Trump's constant lies and insults, and inconsistencies, may become the dogma truth by sheer repetition... if the people don't wake up, gets educated on the facts, and raises to the occasion and stops a 'criminal mind' from acting his evil purpose, enrich himself at our expense while removing the trust in each other. Trump's malevolent behavior is ever-present and worsening by the day...unless we gather the will to stop the mayhem. Erdogan seems to be cut from the same cloth, a corrupt megalomaniac dictator getting away with 'murder', as his crookery has been effectively pushed under the rug. These are tough times. Let's not make things worse by looking the other way.
2
And please Paul, when you write about “Turkey’s Trump” never neglect tontion the increasingly “Saudi style” misogyny of Erdogan and his ministers. From calling women who work “half women” to saying it is the patriotic duty of Turkish women to have a minimum of three children, to even saying it is shaming for women to laugh in public Erdogan’s government has fostered and promoted the repression of women since coming to power.
Although Erdogan clearly has little regard for women except for making babies, maybe someone should point out to him that no economy can thrive long term when half its population is invisible and powerless.
2
Crises always happen. That is probably a universal law. In fact, they are happening right now. Think about the volcano in Hawaii. Think about the rising sea levels. Think about our failing infrastructure. Think about our children dying in school!
As you say, when crises occur, that's when we need expertise at the highest levels of government. And that's exactly what we don't have thanks to our president choosing people who are incompetent but who support him without reservation.
What we need is a Congress which is unafraid to face these problems in the absence of leadership from the president. We need a Congress which can listen to the experts and follow their recommendations. We need a Congress which can put aside partisan issues and work for the common good.
Unfortunately, we have a Republican Congress which is doing none of the above. God help us, 'cause we really need You.
When the crisis hits, and it will, the only certainty is it won't be Trump's fault. If you don't believe me, just ask him.
" long stretches of complacency followed by sudden panic."
Human nature at its most hardwired and predictable. We don't fix problems proactively, we go around putting out fires.
l am a 83 year old Turkish man, left Turkey 1960 and be come a proud American, but l care and pray for Turks, seen the pictures of great ATATURK and dictator ERDOGAN side by side makes me sick, economic policy is a different policy for every country, what is good for Italy is not good for Turks, ERDOGAN is a very dangeres man for Turks and for western world, he and his son is the same thing Trump ans his sons and his son-in-law they work for themselves, if western world will not put this man out of business , they are going to loose Turkey and Turks will be very bad shape
94
trump has no idea what he is doing and the media has to
stop pretending otherwise
the spy lie has died and the press has to stop enabling
the perversion of our most cherished institutions
we have a turkey oof our own and his name is Trump
1
How many times can we bash Trump???...let me count the ways. Another Krugman column, filled with ridiculous exaggeration, hyperbole and fanciful supposing.
Writes Krugman:
"Authoritarian instincts and contempt for rule of law aren’t the only things Erdogan and Trump have in common. Both also have contempt for expertise. In particular, both have surrounded themselves with people notable both for their ignorance and for their bizarre views."
This is typical progressive pablum--to throw out something as if fact--and needs no questioning or examination. But let's look.
Trump has "authoritarian instincts"? Where do you see that, Mr. Krugman? What has he done, what has he said--that would lead you to believe he would flout over 2 centuries of shared power, and desire to install himself as a dictator? Examples? Did you feel that way, when Obama uttered the famous phrase, "I have a phone and a pen"...when he essentially promised to bypass Congress and go it alone? The answer is, of course not--he is a fellow progressive--so you were fine with it.
And what "bizarre views" do you suspect of his advisers? Could it be Pruitt's belief that radical economic policies, with no scientific support, hurt our economy? Are those the views you despise? Or is it that so many of his folks believe keeping and spending our own money, instead of the government doing it makes more sense?
Krugman. Part of the resistance. Part of the absurdity of progressivism.
3
Mr. Krugman, your hatred for Mr. Trump is so irrational that it puts to question many of the fine arguments you have made of late.
Your observations are now driven by emotions and your arguments expressed via unsubstantiated cheap shots.
I find it very hard to continue seeing you as the "propter vocem" in this or any other debate.
2
Please Mr. Krugman, we've got Trump and Bolton on one side and Kim on the other, we don't need any more scare articles.
To paraphrase Dornbusch, "It can't happen here – until it does."
71
In 2015 I had the privilege of spending some time in Istanbul, and fell in love with the City and its' people. At the time we were able to interact with a number of well educated Turks who were very afraid of what Erdogan was doing to their country. One referred to him as "He who must not be named." She said that if you were heard disparaging Erdogan in public, especially to foreigners, which we were, you could suffer at your job (she was a university professor). This was before the "coup." She said that Erdogan played to the less well educated using religious wedge issues. Ataturk had established a secular democracy with a line between Church and State------Erdogan let that line erode, which was seen as good in the rural and less well educated parts of the country. Sounds familiar.
11
Governance in Turkey has been plagued by corruption and authoritarian behavior since long before Erdogan came to power. The new element in the mix is the assault on the secular state, which injects new political tensions between secularists and Islamists. Political uncertainty of this flavor and magnitude also undermines investor confidence in the country's stability and in the reliability of its institutions for protecting investment and investors. The build-up of these conditions is a good part of the current crisis, in the sense that the country has long lived, survived and thrived under various regimes that have been corrupt and autocratic. Also important to remember - unlike any other country in the region Turkey has absorbed, at great cost, millions of Syrian and other refugees, and given its location and regional politics, its overhead on defense must be enormous.
1
With the possible exception of the fed, it is clear that there is no one in this administration or in the republican congress with the ability to manage the next crisis. In fact, they are encouraging a crisis by weakening dodd-frank which wasn't very strong to begin with.
2
I'm not an economist, nor do I profess much expertise in political science. But I do get a sense that ignoring gross incompetence combined with (only) greedy people running the show will eventually cause us (and the world at large) a whole lot of pain. But just like three-dimensional chess, the future is so unpredictable that it would take people who are versed in a myriad of disciplines to analyze the Problem and then offer solutions. That of course would ALSO cause pain but not a devastating amount of it. As for the USA, as much as I hate to say it, our legislative branch is just not working anymore. The minority party is there but has little or no power at all. The senate is structured poorly as well. When both parties HAVE to share power, then the debate will eventually be amongst people who have to know what they're talking about, and the laws that follow would be thoughtfully designed to benefit the nation as a whole, not just the privileged few.
3
"The truth is that most of the time the quality of economic leadership matters much less than most people — economic leaders included — believe. Really destructive policies, like those driving Venezuela into the ditch, are one thing. But run-of-the-mill policies like changes in tax law, even if they’re pretty big and clearly irresponsible, rarely have dramatic effects."
I think economic leadership does matter, and the damaging economic policies along with the political posturing actually work over time to create the economic shock. The 2008 crisis happened due to political and economic policies which failed to properly regulate.
I see another example in the Brexit fiasco engulfing the UK. Over the years the austerity policies of the Tory/LibDem coalition severely damaged the economy (outside London and the South) and public services. At the same time the Euroskeptics in both the Tory party and UKIP were blaming the economic pressures on the EU. The result was the referendum vote to leave. We have a Tory government of economic illiterates and/or delusional clowns negotiating the UK's economic future with the EU and continuing to deceive the public. And there is nothing the people can do about it under the elected dictatorship that is the Parliamentary system.
10
Regarding the tax deal, perhaps Dr. K can throw some light on how all those stock buybacks appear to be propping up the Dow for an election year. While the average voter might not have gotten much of anything from the deal, at least the market has retained most of the Trump run-up that occurred in 2017.
Even so, the Dow has basically gone sideways this year, making me wonder what would have happened without the corporate tax cut and cash infusion of “offshore” funds that have been repatriated under the tax plan. My point is similar to the article - when the recession that must eventually come shows up on DJT’s White House doorstep, will he have the people, understanding, tools, and market confidence needed to prevent a disaster? I think I know the answer, but would appreciate an expert opinion.
6
Perhaps I'm being overly pessimistic, but I believe the 2017 tax cut has already sown the seeds for the next Great Recession. Aside from a few extra dollars per paycheck for everyday folk, it has done nothing to grow the economy in a way that creates employment. What it has done is buoy the stock market and stuff more cash into corporate coffers, only a small part of which will find its way to workers. By itself, that scenario seems unfair but not dangerous.
But in a few years, the crisis comes as the deficit and debt explodes. U.S. debt will not be as attractive as it once was because our international reputation is suffering. Interest rates will rise. Whichever Congress is in charge may decide that we have to cut spending. If it's Republican, you can bet Social Security and Medicare are on the chopping block. (Heaven forbid we'd raise taxes.) The net is, there will be a government fiscal crisis, and a recession begins.
But because the working class has fallen further behind the top 10% in income and wealth due to the tax cut, it's another multi-year, high-unemployment recession. I shudder to think how it would be handled by Trump and today's Congress.
14
It is rather amazing how authoritarians enjoy seeming “boom-time” economies fueled on money that in the end is not really there. The international banksters who drive this process have taken their bloated profits out in the front end,in a more sophisticated “pump and dump” scheme if you will.
Money continues to shuffle around globally in a musical chairs fashion going into over leveraged investments in assets that seem to produce nothing other than more money instead of the something material that was promised.
We have seem this in Greece, Spain, Ireland, and on a smaller scale Puerto Rico, but that these kinds of crisis have not happened here could be largely a matter of volume.
This is where I feel Dornbusch’s law will be realized in the United States. Primarily in a new round of bad FIRE (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) investment on a global scale. That is why Frank Dodd has to be eviscerated by Republicans.
I’d love to relate that I will be spared the hardship, but I’m not CEO or Hedge Fund manager.
Tip of the Iceberg Prediction: There is a 3,500 unit mixed use land development deal being built within 10 miles of me that will be a ghost town within three years of groundbreaking.
2
Recessions, depressions. and other ecomic calamities ought to be controllable by government with the proper expertise and tools but somehow aren't. After all, the great recession, to take an example, didn't wreck any houses or factories as do hurricanes, floods and earthquakes, no professionals lost their educations or licenses and no factory workers lost their skills or were injured so what is exactly the problem that somehow couldn't be effectively addressed?
2
In a nutshell, any solution the government could implement would require funding. Which, in turn, would require either borrowing or tax hikes. And one of our two major political parties equates tax hikes with tyranny, socialism, and a slippery slope toward totalitarian government. And the only borrowing that is ever justified is either for defense spending or loss of revenue due to tax cuts. All other spending is considered "wasteful" and unnecessary, if not a treasonous betrayal of the intent of our founding 18th century plantation owners.
3
I like the bit about the 18th century. I'm a close by observer of American politics & society. I can see easily that a large number of Americans still base their culture on the 18th & 19th centuries. I could give a list of things that support the point. That culture has continued from generation to generation up to the present day.
It will take several generations for that to change, if it ever does.
I've been keeping any eye on Mr. Erdogan for years now, albeit from a German perspective, where he has sought to extend his political reach past Ankara to all the Turks living in Germany, sometimes even imprisoning them for having opposing views; as was the case in German-Turkish journalist, Deniz Yücel, who was finally freed after popular opinion and international attention made it difficult for him to remain behind bars.
Other journalists have not been so lucky.
And with Erdogan's constant crackdown on the media and the need to control his public image, he is also not all that dissimilar from Donald Trump.
Plus he also shares the same taste for pomp and grandeur, not too long ago he finished building a 1,000-room presidential palace and complex for himself, that cost Turkish taxpayers over $700m, or 1.37bn Turkish lira.
And then there's his dependence on the military and increased involvement in Syria, a neighboring country which Turkey had good relations with until the civil unrest broke out there in 2011 -- not to mention his deepening ties with Vladimir Putin and Russia, even though tactically Turkey is still a member of NATO, though for how much longer is anybody's guess.
That's why when it comes to leadership, if this all sounds vaguely familiar to what's going on here, it's not surprising -- but it is rather frightening.
14
Congress eliminating many Dodd Frank regulations is timely for the next disaster. Interest rates rising, student debt rising, national debt rising, political instability, uninformed cabinet members, foreign policy in disarray, rising oil prices, What could go wrong?
37
Just like the Reagan and GW administrations. People never learn.
1
of course Paul Krugman's teacher is right, but not only with the economy. Things happen (when the do happen) much quicker than we thought possible, simply because we have done a lot of "wishful thinking", ie, mental inertia. The same can be applied to the Climate. The fact is, and it is a sad fact, that the USA has always favoured and courted and relied on "strong men". President Trump is no exception, only his style of voicing his support is different.
We live in interesting times.
1
I would like to be a little bored
4
Now is the time when we need to decide if we want the earth to end in nuclear alienation or not.
We have a president that is faced with the choice of using nuclear weapons preemptively or being cowed into accepting this jerk (Kim) as a real world leader.
The larger issue, which was answered in WWII, is whether nuclear weapons should ever be used preemptively and that question was answered. The next issue is how, if ever used again preemptively, should they be used, and then of course what is the limit.
With regard to the Kim Jung Un reign, it has become clear that he won't make peace with the US. Therefore, we're going to have to use the ultimate force against him.
This will be the example of nuclear war that causes us to eliminate all nuclear weapons from the earth, but the war will probably happen. It will be horrendous.
The US has a plan to take out the artillery against South Korea, but it requires tactical nuclear weapons.
And it requires the use of strategic nuclear weapons against them to eliminate command and control.
This changes the nuclear stance of United Nations. We'll need immediate negotiations among nations to prevent such an occurrence in the future, but there seems no other realistic option at this time.
In a larger sense, does this mean nations must bow to US capitalism to survive? Of course not. Even most Americans don't bow to US capitalism anymore.
The world is about to change.
2
I don't think using nukes in WWII was "pre-emptive". The US entered the war only after being attacked and all of Europe occupied.
Trump is coasting on Obama's economy. The recent tax "reform" has little economic stimulant in it, the failure to invest in infrastructure isn't putting any moaney back in circulation, (never mind the economic drag from crumbling highways and 20th century transportation,) and failure to invest in the workforce through education will become a bigger and bigger economic drag.
Obama's good kharma won't hold up the economy forever. The question is who is Trump going to blame?
35
"The question is who is Trump gong to blame?
Robert Mueller.
5
I hope you are asking that final question rhetorically because the answer is as obvious as the darkness of Trump's heart. He and the radical right and Fox News will blame. Guess who that is?
5
Who will Trump blame? Obama!
5
It's kind of amusing to see Mr. Krugman accuse Trump of cozying up to dictators, as if this is some kind of aberration. The fact is, plenty of US presidents have cultivated dictators over the last 80 years, so it's not out of the ordinary. Whether it was Stalin, Saddam Hussein or the kings of Saudi Arabia, our presidents engaged them without much criticism. To pretend otherwise and that Trump is an outlier in this regard, is just not true. He is just a lot more upfront about it, as is his penchant to emulate their despicable behaviors.
5
We have always dealt with unsavory rulers when it seems (rightly or wrongly) that doing so is in our self-interest. What is different about Trump is that he actively admires these autocrats. He is not dealing with them because he "has to" but because he admires them and would like to emulate them. That's a difference in kind, not in degree.
1
The US cozied up to Stalin?
More the US made a devil's bargain that of the two evils, Hitler posed the more immediate threat.
2
Yes, but they helped us stand up to godless communism, or something.
We had competent professionals working for George W. Bush and look where that got. Two tax cuts for the rich, lax financial regulation and an unnecessary Middle East war later, the Great Recession of 2008. With Donald Trump we have massive incompetence and outright corruption, one giant tax cut, lax regulation with the unraveling of the Dodd-Frank law, and war drums beating for another Middle East war. I guess we and he didn't learn anything, but when you don't read much and don't believe in the facts anyway, this is the real disaster that we seem headed for. So, in typical Trump fashion he'll walk away with his millions leaving us with a looted Treasury and all his wealthy corporate cronies begging for bail out because "They're too big too fail."
14
Chief among the "competent professionals" who worked for Bush was Hank Paulson. True, he was an economic libertarian, but when the financial crisis hit, he abandoned those beliefs and did what had to be done to save the economy from falling into a depression. I don't see a Hank Paulson anywhere among Trump's advisers.
6
So, "when the financial crisis hit, he abandoned those beliefs" forms a recommendation these days? I always thought rank hypocrisy was bad but then I remembered we're talking about the ruling class here where hypocrisy is a feature.
The GOP creates problems that the next administration has to solve, see 2008. The Trump years will probably create all sort of issues that he and his minions will not have to answer for. Instead, it will be the American taxpayers, the American soldiers, and the Dems who will have to clean up Trump's inevitable mess.
35
And then the GOP will blame the Democrats for the problems they themselves created. It's part of their game and how they win votes.
5
"It's the economy, stupid!" may have been political wisdom when it was spoken in the heat of the 1992 presidential campaign, but it is foolishness when applied to the general fortunes and the moral character of a nation. High employment and a thriving stock market may be good things, but by themselves they are too unstable to indicate the true state of affairs of a country. For this, we also need to look at other things like health care, the environment, the education system, and international relations. In the present moment, we should also add respect for the rule of law. And by these other measures, the signs are rather ominous for America. Of course, the US has resources far beyond the dreams of Erdogan. But in Trump we have a president whose only talent may be his ability to squander them.
7
This is another good analysis, but we are in an analysis-saturated environment, albeit mostly by talking heads rather than anything with depth as done by Mr. Krugman.
When the country was founded it is estimated that one-third of the population supported the revolution, one-third did not, and one-third didn't care. Lincoln was a minority elected president in a three-way race.
Today, even with all the documented lies of Trump and the roll-back of worker protections, environmental protections, and denials of science in this corrupt and ignorant administration, the electoral "base" of the Republicans favor what is bad for the citizenry more than what is good for the majority and the generations yet unborn.
The Iraq war and the Vietnam war were built on tissues of lies. JFK's Defense Secretary McNamara admitted as much in his too-late book, and when they knew the war could not be "won", they did not know how to get out, so many thousands more of America's sons and daughters laid down their lives for what they thought was a patriotic reason, but the reason was a repeated lie.
When we are lied to daily, it is numbing, but apparently it is tolerable to too many. What price will later be looked back on with wonder and regret, with another generation saying we were the fools for tolerating lies and deception which was out in the open, staring at us, with a grin befitting the Grim Reaper, beckoning us to a new Dark Age.
6
Trump probably will have to face serious challenges of his own making and ongoing.
During his presidency, as consequence of repealing Obama-care and replacing with nothing or the roll-back of Dodd-Frank Act if commercial developers abuse the relaxation of restrictions for commercial lending or with a military approach to North Korea or with a China trade war wannabe.
After his presidency, Trump will face serious challenges in court. Most likely as result of conflict of interests and corruption.
One can only agree with all this but it contrasts oddly with Krugman's recommendations at the time of the Greek debt crisis when he advocated leaving the Euro and reversion to the Drachma. What would have happened was that the Drachma like the Turkish currency would have dropped and Greece's foreign debts would as Krugman says have "Exploded." Faced with reality naturally Tsipras and Syriza rapidly changed their minds about the wisdom of dropping the Euro.
1
Yes, but Greeks today live and work to pay the exorbitant debt service to German banks ( which are not doing too well either). Production is still below 2008 levels. Instead of a rapid death they chose a slow agony. See their levels of consumption and migration
2
Well Enri that is because the Greeks lied to get into the Euro; lied for years about the state of their public finances which were massively bloated by public spending funded by borrowing; widespread corruption in the public sector; and all underfunded because of lax tax collection practices. Ultimately the bill came due and yes it was bad but the alternative of leaving the Euro would have been infinitely worse!
This is a reality that people like you just don't want to accept so instead we get sob stories about the poor little Greeks being ill treated by the Germans. It's baloney. Economics as Krugman sometimes points out is not a morality play.
Dr. K writes: Investors and markets don’t seem to mind the craziness at the top...
OF COURSE they don't mind the craziness at the top! As long as voters are distracted by irrationality at the top they are not paying attention to the substantive issues that will have a long term impact on them... like the tax cuts that will "require" deep cuts to entitlements or the FCC's decision to allow telecomm industries to charge differentiated rates to the Supreme Court's decision to disallow class action suits by workers... The oligarchs who control the markets and donors who control the politicians don't mind at all that the news media are reporting on the tweets, turmoil, and torts involving jilted paramours of the POTUS... it keeps them out of the limelight...
8
"But when big shocks do hit, the quality of leadership suddenly matters a lot. Which is what we’re seeing in Turkey now."
Donald Trump isn't a "leader" in the classic sense of the world--he's a strongman constantly testing the strength of his political power.
That he's succeeded until now says more about the cowardice and caving of branches of government that seem to be eagerly handing over their independence to this craven, shallow man.
I so totally don't get why Donald Trump scares so many people into jumping when he orders them to do so.
What's happening in our government goes against the grain of every American value.
Please raise your hands if you think Trump will be able to handle a genuine economic or foreign policy crisis. Whatever one thinks of the president, grace under pressure, and courage, aren't qualities that come to mind.
Perhaps the officials at justice are just trying to wait Trump out until elections change the power structure.
Such a waiting game is extremely dangerous, as history shows us. Normalizing financial corruption and demagogic power grabs are the spoils of a country that's lost its democratic moorings.
34
It seems like the Turkish people staywith Erdogan because of their shared religion. When the attempted coup happened, they rallied to his defense. Now it seems he is being undermined by a financial crisis. Will he be able to weather it?
These financial crises, as in the case of Venezuela, seem manufactured for the benefit of would-be outside investors.
2
At this juncture, our stock and bond markets skip along from one FED meeting to another. Unless the Donald is pulling the FED's strings, J. Powell rules the roost.
As per inflation, it appears that our FED uses a measurement system alien to 90+ percent of Americans.
If the FED does move rates a little higher here and there, would it really matter? Can Wall Street create a national crises on its own?
4
Well said Dr. Krugman. As the Trump regime manufactures pseudo-crisis after pseudo-crisis, usually in the form of interpersonal conflict with cabinet members or celebrities (with the intent to distract), we get a preview of the chaotic and ineffective response he will offer when and if we have a true crisis. Scary.
We've all heard that the silver lining of the Trump nightmare is that our institutions will be strengthened and contain him.
I'm not so sure.
Our constitutional form of government certainly seems stronger than Turkey's, or Venezuela's for that matter, but it may not be strong enough to push back a popular revolt led by alt-right figureheads like Trump. Even the left is demonstrating a mistrust of institutions, because the problem of rising authoritarianism is viewed by the public as a threat to elites, not the people. Moreover, trust for the federal government has zero chance of increasing while the Citizen's United decision rules the land.
I find myself thinking the following: I do not like Trump. I worry about his authoritarian tendencies coupled by his political allegiance to the Christian Right. However, I too distrust the federal government's ability to address the needs of the people, from rising wages to healthcare to policing without violence. Popular revolt is needed, but not in the form of authoritarian cronyism practiced by Trump.
Politicians in the mold of Eugene V. Debs are needed now. It's time for a new New Deal.
11
On 7 June 2015 during the general elections in Turkey, the ruling AK Party lost the required majority to form the government by its own. An early election decision was taken and on 1 November 2015 during an early election AK Party regained the majority of voters to form a government. So remaining in power since 2002 did not mean for the government to raise their support to round 70 % or 90 % as it is known in some of the most dictatorships. Their support eroded in 13 years and for 2015, they were initially unable to form a government. It can be read as a fact that many of the Turks disliked the government but when it came to make a decision at least in the 2015 early election they possibly disliked the alternative more for a series of reasons. My very own long term observation tells me that it's not authoritarianism where Turkish parties differ. Unfortunately, Turkish voters cannot change the dose of authority by electing a different party and they are well aware of such fact. Turkey recently changed its constitution and now among many two strong candidates are running for presidency. There's a harsh competition. Many regard the timing of the currency fluctuation as a conspiracy. It is a statistical fact that Turkish corporations have high external dept even compared to other developing countries. The criticized government did much to reduce the central government dept. Such is now at lowest levels (as % of GDP.) compared to any European country.
1
Prívate debt may be unsustainable if interest rates go up, which he seems reluctant to do. International capital Flees however to higher rates of return. Another Brazil?
The Turkish Central Bank, along legislation, has to be concerned about price stability. Along such legislation it acts independently. President Erdogan, a very long period all along, was calling the central bank to drop interest rates. Yesterday the central bank raised such rates for 3 points and declared such were for the sake of price stability. High ranked ministers of the government announced support for the central banks decision and Mr. Erdogan declared as election promise that : i) the central bank would remain independent, ii) such would prior price stability, iii) flexible exchange rate regime would be kept. So there's a lot of political rhetoric around but at the end, free market is sustained. Turkey has 30 billion USD + inward FDI stocks in the financial sector. So foreign banks have some operations around. This included, if all the banking sector would have financed unprofitable industries in terms of foreign exchange, this would be big problem.But on the other hand there are also a lot of industries which remain profitable. Something of much importance...Turkey is running a current account deficit since a very long time.In a few years electricity generated from renewables could exceed electricity generated from natural gas. Turkey is highly industrialized and is transforming.There still is a current account deficit but after the transformation it could extraordinarily shrink. Turkey had a currency crisis in 1958, but since then, the market has evolved immensely.
The "what if it does" is what's got me worried. In the Trump reign--be vigilant and cautious financially and otherwise. Trump and his Republican enablers are simply not trustworthy.
10
Erdogan is also in many ways the opposite of Trump.
He started out as a politician, and went to jail for his beliefs. He was never an entitled entertainment figure, nor a billionaire swanning around parties.
When Erdogan took office, he at first was a new broom who really did sweep away an establishment of right wing abuses. He really did bring in genuine democracy.
He also brought in a genuine peace with neighbors, and made peace with the Kurds. He refused the join the Iraq War, in a genuine expression when it mattered of what Trump can only claim after the fact.
Erdogan really did revitalize the Turkish economy into a period of vast growth, healthy growth based on good government, not bluster.
More recently, Erdogan has been backsliding on all of these accomplishments. But first he actually did have those accomplishments. Trump never did, or could.
Furthermore, some of Erdogan's backsliding is not entirely blameworthy.
He was unwise to join in the American/Saudi/Israeli attack on Syria, but he had company in that mistake.
He was unwise to re-ignite the Kurdish problems, but some of that arose out of the mistake concerning Syria, with its Kurds and border between Kurds.
He was unwise to confront Israel in such an over-the-top fashion, but he was one of the few who actually would stand up for abuses of the Palestinians, which were murderous and real and involved Turks too, such as the Flotilla that killed ten Turks.
This column is accurate but not balanced or fair.
12
Erdogan cannot control the economy, just like his counterparts on this side of the Atlantic. Investors fleeing to higher interests rates somewhere is not his fault, but he does not have either conceptual tools to explain it. Like Trump he gives people nationalist ideology. That is cheap and in abundant supply.
5
Good points, but ask yourself what Ataturk would think about Erdogan's reign...
The real genesis of constitutional democracy in Turkey was Ataturk, who right now is rolling over in his grave and rightly concerned that Erdogan represents the beginnings of establishing a new Caliphate in a resurrected Ottoman Empire.
Certainly Erdogan could be worse; that doesn't mean he's not an authoritarian dictator still growing into his power...
4
The situations of Trump and Erdogan are also different in that Erdogan still enjoys the support of at least half or maybe slightly more of the Turkish population, despite everything else. Those who still blindly support Trump are fortunately a minority in the USA. If they were as numerous relative to the population as Erdogan's supporters, then Trump might be able to do what Erdogan has done.
2
You say it's a minority that support him. Maybe you're right, but does it matter? The GOP now controls all 3 branches of the federal government, as well as the vast majorities of state legislatures and governorships. They do have a majority; mainly because liberals are rushing to make their party ever more exclusive - if you don't have the right identity; if you're not completely secular; if you don't have a professional degree; if you believe in having guns to protect yourself from a very violent society; if you don't think abortion should happen just to avoid inconvenience, etc., then you're left outside the tent of neo-liberal politics. Liberalism was never intended to be so exclusive, and I'm sorry, but liberalism in America is no longer a party of the people - it's the party of identity politics and anti-conservatism. That's all. It's a reactive and powerless movement.
1
The vulnerability of the United States to a financial crisis has increased under Donald Trump, regardless of what the stock market may reflect. The high-stakes international poker game which Trump is playing so badly with China, North Korea and in the Middle East is a big reason, but there are others.
Since the United States borrows in its own currency, an upheaval in a country which is a net creditor of the U.S. has less effect here than in many nations doing business with the country experiencing a crisis.
If the country having the upheaval cannot repay its debts, of course, that will affect holders of bonds or other debt instruments sold by the defaulting country to U.S. investors.
The Trump-Republican economic policy (and “policy” grants more dignity to the irresponsible tax cuts and spending decisions of the Republicans than those cuts and that spending deserve) generally presents a different kind of domestic danger. Trump’s example encourages and lionizes speculators.
For some American investors, we live in the “hot potato era” where people and corporations buy shares in companies at high risk of going belly up. The investors want the quick profit of selling the stock at a much higher price. The same flipping occurs in the real estate market.
Such investors hope they can unload the hot potato before it burns their greedy little hands.
When things go south, President Trump will deny any role in the crisis, and his base will believe him.
9
Are there some organized way of protesting against obvious economic missteps or misdeeds? How to explain some basic facts to the man in the street--and that includes the Base; especially the actions that can damage their short-term as well as long-term interests?
2
I agree the situation looks like the south American and Asian crisis. It also looks like Germany in 1923 and 1948.
The economy of a country can be described in two types of debt:
1. Nation-state debt
2. Private debt
When Nation-state debt quality is questioned, the country's currency goes down and economic chaos becomes more likely.
When private debt quality is questioned, individual firms can become insolvent, and a recession can occur, but economic chaos is unlikely.
It is impossible to predict the future, but deficit increasing tax cuts have a pernicious effect on the US economy.
7
Countries should be judged by the ability to sustain a recovery economy. Like the amount of small enterprises with less than 100 employees and their ratio of debt capital. Or the assurance of maintaining an basic infrastructure, including roads and schools.
Countries like greece build their whole economy around a government that provided easy money to everyone, that's why the end of the easy money affected the whole society so fast.
But neither Trump nor Erdogan induce politics, that foster local business to a level, that makes them dependent on an unsustainable economic model. Trump and Erdogan skim away an huge part of public revenue to the ultra-rich, which does great harm to all people. But this system does not make the small people and their business addicted to the government.
Turkey will have their crisis, but it will just lose the money, that ordinary people already have lost due to corruption and nepotism. Most turkish citizen may not even realize, that they are already forfeiting years of development and broad social promoting. A crisis just will make this loss irreversible. But a crisis will not have such a devastating effect on the whole economy like it had in southern europe.
The US is not so different, people already price in the next crisis now. When the crisis actually happen, the small people will be able to provide the recovery, sometimes not even realizing, how much they actually have lost in advance by bad politics.
3
Very insightful. Here in America real-wage growth has been flat for decades and our middle class, once the engine of economic growth has slipped before the 50% marker. I'm not sure how the middle and lower classes--already tapped out and stretched--will be able to work hard enough to enable the next recovery. There's a lot already destabilizing and limiting earners financially.
7
Also keep in mind that over time, technology advances will eliminate more and more jobs, which means we will have a huge surplus of unemployed and unemployable people, largely of the lower and middle ranks of society. Then what? We offer little to no useful education or health care for those people. Next step? The military. Perfect for an economy based on endless war and conflict.
Let me make this as simple as possible:
We no longer live in a democracy. It wasn't caused by one side or the other, it wasn't caused by Trump, it was caused by money.
It has officially ended. The Internet is DEAD. Ignore it. Freedom of speech exists only where no electronic devices exist, like in a swimming pool.
I predict unprecidented events soon. Perhaps the big one.
13
At what point does a leader from another country have the sense that an agreement with the current President carries any validity, and for how long? He is a walking contradiction, with no certitude that there is an ounce of truth in anything he says, and no evidence that any agreement would last any longer than it takes for him to change his mind and deny what has just been agreed to. Tactical or compulsive irrationality will render the credibility of our government meaningless, and the consequences of that will not repair our world, but only make it more dangerous.
12
Republicans are deregulating the banks, and interest rates are rising. This makes debt more expensive. As incomes remain flat, car and home sales will drop, as will consumer spending in general.
Another debt crisis is coming - and it isn’t the only one. Iran is getting restive - as is North Korea. Once things start falling apart, the situation will go pear-shaped (or mushroom cloud shaped) quickly.
13
There's also higher costs for health care, housing, food (that's coming), fuel, caring for our elderly, education, etc. All of these will stretch people.
2
This column seems more aimed at perpetuating the myth that Trump wishes to burn down the Reichstag and take full dictatorial power than it does about Erdogan transparently seeking to do just that in Turkey. Trump calls for legislation from a fractious Congress that is the legitimate source of such power in America; and he obeys judicial decisions that he despises just as Obama despised those (MANY) that went against HIS policy preferences. There’s isn’t the slightest evidence to suggest that Trump sees himself as an autocrat; while there is not only evidence of such desire by Erdogan, but clear actions by him in support of such a state.
And the quality of “leadership” here is layered, particularly the institutional framework that supports our economics and notably includes our Fed; and quite unlike that of Turkey.
But Paul must convey a message in support of a political agenda, one that requires unremitting demonization of Trump. It’s getting old.
I’d write something pithy about Erdogan as I’ve been following the country and its lider since an Aegean cruise that included Turkey that I took fifteen years ago as he was just beginning his serious rise as prime minister (he is now president); but I figure why bother? Paul didn’t.
7
"There’s isn’t the slightest evidence to suggest that Trump sees himself as an autocrat; "
Maybe, but there is overwhelming evidence to support the notion that Trump just doesn't seem to know what he's doing as POTUS. And that's just one or two steps below autocracy in the *damage to the country* scale. Paul can write and post an article like this, which all serve to bolster such an argument with his typically lucid reasoning, every six hours if he so desires(or maybe I'm underestimating him?).
18
Dino C:
Trump also is unlike any president we've ever had, with no background in governance -- but, hen, that was largely WHY he was elected.
1
One of the main reasons Trump is in the White House is that so many Americans were fed up with career politicians who made grandiose promises in exchange for votes. The minute the election was over all those promises were conveniently forgotten about. The novelty of having someone with no previous political expertise in the White House was also appealing to Trump voters. That is pundits like Krugman conveniently overlook.
1
I knew nothing of Turkey's government until, a decade ago, I helped my son with his senior paper, a biography of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. I was astounded to learn how he ushered Turkey into a modern, secular age. I have watched affairs in Turkey since, but there is nothing good to say about what's happening now. I'm surprised Ataturk's photo is still in Turkey's classrooms.
38
The only difference I can see between Trump and Erdogan is that Erdogan has secured his dictatorship, while Trump is still trying. The other big difference is that Trump is most likely too inept and stupid to actually accomplish it here.
But, that's not going to stop him from trying.
120
With all due respect, I wouldn't count on his stupidity especially, if Reps are successful in Nov. Further, if he is reelected in 2020 ( which is a good possibility) then watch out for him to declare that we don't need another election. He is president for life! Oh, you say the SC will not allow or Americans will not stand for it? Then, please check the history especially, what happened in Germany in 1940s!
4
That next crisis to which you are referring may be when we transition to an autocratic government: a Reichstag fire. He will clamp down on civil liberties, all in the name of patriotism. The immigration issue is just a preview of coming attractions.
There is going to be a crisis. Trump is trying hard to engineer one, with that endgame in mind. Congress, who has the responsibility for checking Trump, is supine.
You may or may not be a Democrat (I was an independent until Trump) but unless you want to live in a third world country (I have and it's no picnic), your only ability to check him comes in November.
You think that this is a joke? Wait until he comes for you.
378
Thanks for putting this warning into print.
82
Our Reichstag fire might well be war with Iran. Trump's evangelical base wants it as part of its "End Times" delusions. Trump's neocons want it for Israel. Trump may want it as a bright, shiny object to distract America from his problems.
Trump already uses neocon lies to set the stage for war, lies simply recycled from the Iraq playbook. Then Trump would use the pretext of war to impose his will on America. Again, the neocons would provide the playbook from their Excellent Adventure in Vietraq. Trump would impugn the patriotism of any critic, and would have a Republican Party already bent to his will to support him. Fox News would pick up where it left off with Iraq, attacking all the "Iran lovers" who protest. And finally, Trump would have a Supreme Court ideologically sympathetic to him to support whatever he does.
I see this starting to play out about a hear before the 2020 elections.
36
And he is coming for someone, you, me, my friends, my loved ones, my neighbors, my fellow citizens
17
Turkey, aside from Istanbul is basically a poor, peasant country. It's main export is immigrating to Germany.
So it cannot be compared to America.
5
Good try. But you are wrong. Anything can be compared as long as there is a similar concept, like economic, judicial or democratic systems.
Where some turks use to move when they feel bored doesn't change that.
4
I know relatively little about Turkey, but I have read about its economic growth and trade patterns over the years and about its extensive trade and cultural ties to Europe. I also visited Istanbul once. As a result of even that small exposure to the issues, I can strongly disagree with Irate citizen's categorization of Turkey.
Yes, Istanbul was the capital city of the Ottoman empire, which had extensive cultural and economic connections with Germany before WWI. However, after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire the new Turkish government made Ankara its capital, far to the south. Much of the recent economic development has happened on the Anatolian Peninsula. This is south and east from Istanbul and is very conservative culturally. Does the US have any kind of cultural split between northern states with strong intellectual ties to Europe and newly-industrialized southern states with a more agricultural and conservative culture?
4
We're testing the proposition that we have a system designed by geniuses that can be run by idiots. So far, the uninsured are up by 4 million (about 15%) since 2016 and the debt trajectory over a decade is up $28,500 per household (about 35%) vs. the Obama baseline. No matter how many kids get massacred in their classrooms, the Republican Congress is doing nothing and still taking their NRA checks, which almost entirely go to Republicans.
Republicans conveniently forget, with a little help from Fox News, that we've been setting economic records since 2013-2014 depending on the variable.
The opportunity costs are truly staggering however. We could be working on expanding healthcare and education, funded by tax hikes on the rich that lower our deficit. Those 4 million additional uninsured represent 5,000 avoidable deaths each year, and recall that Republicans passed a "Healthcare" (cough) bill in the House which would have worsened the coverage by 23 million over a decade. Instead, we'll lose 4-8 years and have to climb out of the hole back to the starting gate.
101
"The opportunity costs are truly staggering however."
Absolutely spot on. We have dithered, dillied, and dallied for so long. When interest rates were at historic lows we should have borrowed and invested. 0.75% interest with a 6 - 8% ROI if we had done it. Amazing waste of money/time.
5
It's never a good time for incompetent bullies. But some times, they are the WORST possible person to be in charge. Sure, it's all fun and games, until people start dying. Then, there are no do-overs. Dead is dead, and a fool is still a fool. Thanks, GOP.
24
I have been baffled by the market's utter indifference to all Trump's craziness. It's as if a memo went out saying to treat anything that comes out of Trump's mouth as white noise-which it is. Sometimes the market actually rises after he does or says something stupid. The fact is, with interest rates so low, there is simply no choice but to be heavy on equities, regardless of what chaos Trump is sowing. But something's going to hit the fan eventually.
12
Turkey is a turkey of a country too. You can stick a fork in it. We may not be next be we are on the list. Done, finished, dead country walking.
5
The Emperor has NO CLOTHES. Pass it on....
10
A Nobel would have gone nicely with his Pulitzer.
4
Nassim Taleb got it right years ago when he wrote about black swans. We can't predict just what crisis the US will face, but who has faith that Trump and his family will lead the US through it?
18
I think of it in terms of Americans indulging a luxury....when the economy is good, and we don't see the foreign enemies, then some Americans feel they can indulge the luxury of an idiot like Trump, who is 99% entertainment value in insulting and denouncing people they don't like, much like any fight on twitter or in a WWE wrestling match.
I think the country felt the same way when it elected George W. Bush, and watched the impeachment of Bill Clinton. Things are good, so we can muck around with the government.
But here's the thing: really good presidents don't show you how hard the job is. They make it look easy and natural. Then we have an Iraq war, a drowned city, a Great Recession, and a president actually attacking the very institutions of the government he nominally presides over and we find out, hey, we don't have the luxury of letting that guy be in charge after all.
14
Trump has not repeated George W.'s wars yet, but the other analogies are common!
We must get control of the 24 House of Reps. & hopefully keep the Senate seats up for election + very few seats needed to control the Senate.
2
With our government now a monopoly Republican one, traditionally a military oriented party now led by a President who spent his formative youth in the New York Military School, and now advised closely by a former military leader, Kelly, Trump is destined to be a military dictator, not just a puppet. Trump admires other strong men like Dutuerte , Erdogan and Putin, all as power hungry as he. Erdogan, just like Trump threatened and even jailed Jounalists in Turkey. Erdogan, like Trump, jailed those who most oppose him and Trump was quoted yesterday as saying that protesting should be illegal. That in itself is yet another indication of Trumpthought and what the future holds. Like Erdogan, Trump's knowledge of macroeconomics is limited to the Real Estate industry and his globalist cartel from New York who are the supreme globalization force in the world. It's obvious Trump is toeing the Republican economic orthodoxy that has always meant policies and law that emerges during good times only to prove crippling to the economy in short order. The greatest risk to our economy occurred today when Trump put our nation in crisis politically with his deal breaking and warmongering against Kim's North Korea, which is equally at fault, but it appears the Pentagon wants a fight to remain relevant and necessary for their empire. Trump is a team player but the team wants to play rough. If things escalate, a crisis of confidence in our economy will take hold, here and abroad.
10
The U.S. economy, as strong as it is, has never been all that robust when it comes to dealing with high-impact negative events that seem predicable only in hindsight:
The dot-com bubble, the 9/11 attack ,the 2008 financial crisis, the 2016 election of an ignorant authoritarian as president, all seemed predicable and maybe even preventable -- after they happened.
It's more than just complacency -- we seem to court disaster. We dismantle banking regulations only a few years after the last crisis, we cancel nuclear deals with dangerous regimes without a plan B, we let John Bolton advise an unemotionally unstable president.
Bubble bursting? War? Constitutional crisis? Who knows? But we can be certain that this president, if not the cause, will be overmatched if it happens on his watch.
971 days left in the Trump administration.
15
I've been concerned for many decades that what grassroots Republicans are after is a one-party autocratic political system in America. Seems that we're headed that way much faster than I even anticipated. The really disturbing thing is that very few people seem to know what's going on or even really care, just the same as in Russia and Turkey. Trump's popularity among voters sits at a rather stable 44%, which is really scary considering who he is. By the time enough politicians and the voting public wake up, if they ever do, it'll be too late.
25
The important effect of this latest Republican tax cut is not what happens to the economy in the short term but the huge increase in debt that we will see over the next ten years.
They just gave the rich a tax cut and put the bill on our credit cards.
Eventually, the bill will come due.
22
"At such a time, the quality of leadership suddenly matters a great deal. You need officials who understand what’s happening, can devise a response and have enough credibility that markets give them the benefit of the doubt." This is precisely what happened when Obama took office the tried to put through a large public works program to lift the economy, and the corrupt Congress would not let him have a success that would reflect well upon him, regardless of the harm their recalcitrance cost the country and its citizens.
It also matters a great deal, of course, who is in charge before the crisis, such as Reagan exploding the national debt (which Clinton brought under control) and Bush waging an unfunded war, with billions in future medical bills for disabled vets, and...what's the use? Will we ever learn? I am not optimistic.
27
Miriam: Let's say it correctly: "corrupt" Republican "Congress". The problem is not Congress, it is Republicans in Congress. You know that.
42
"ignorance and for their bizarre views." That really says it all! Trump of chaos is performing a reality show to enthuse the GOP base regardless of the outcome or consequences and Congressional Republicans are mute. Republicans in Congress need to be reminded of their oath of office! Do we still have nukes in Turkey? If so, DOD had best rethink that deployment.
4
No, Republicans in office don't need to be reminded of anything. They know what their goals are and they're acting to achieve them. Why is it necessary to say that over and over again?
7
Quoth my old friend George Fritz who worked at AT&T for 30 years until he retired, "Everything is fat and sassy right up until the very moment the roof caves in." Perhaps, this is applicable here.
20
It's always ever about the money.
This particular Congress ( led by republicans ) were able to steal TWO TRILLION or so dollars, so they are fat and happy for the moment.
However, they are doing so much more behind the scenes ( and in plain view ) about deregulating and privatizing everything they can. ( which is actually where the true theft is going ) If they run into roadblocks ( missing the health care vote by one ) then they cut off funding or change the rules to make it not functional. They are doing things to make it that they must be sued ( at your cost ) to be stopped.
Even if Democrats take back government, it may not be possible or will take much longer than just one term to reverse all of that theft.
They know that, which is why we have become Turkey in all but name only.
69
With the United Nations a virtual black hole, and with no single country or group of countries in the position to replace the USA as the arbiter of last resort in world affairs, what will happen when a real economic crisis confronts the Trump administration? The evidence of the last 16 months shows that "process" has been superseded by intuition, so we can expect the president's personal prestige and political predicaments to determine any American response. But the autocrat spins all events as victories, or, though unpredicted, as proof of his foresight. If we have an economic crisis, we can therefore expect it to be blamed on the loss of confidence fomented by the fake media, the Democrats, Crooked Hillary, and James Comey. What's frightening is that fifty million of my fellow Americans will say they believe it.
12
It's always ever about the money.
This particular Congress ( led by republicans ) were able to steal TWO TRILLION or so dollars, so they are fat and happy for the moment.
However, they are doing so much more behind the scenes ( and in plain view ) about deregulating and privatizing everything they can. ( which is actually where the true theft is going ) If they run into roadblocks ( missing the health care vote by one ) then they cut off funding or change the rules to make it not functional. They are doing things to make it that they must be sued ( at your cost ) to be stopped.
Even if Democrats take back government, it may not be possible or will take much longer than just one term to reverse all of that theft.
They know that, which is why we have become Turkey in all but name only.
9
What we've learned about public health is relevant to our economic health: prevention is less costly, less painful and less lethal than disease.
And that's the rub with Trump: not only is his regime a ship of fools incapable of managing a collision with an iceberg, they're blithely navigating full speed towards a visible field of icebergs while marveling at the flashing lights on the control panel they don't know how to use.
Republicans excel at this. Breaking and making a mess of things and when out of office doing all they can to obstruct all efforts to fix and clean things up.
Icebergs ahead include: Deregulating banks too big to profit privately without public risk-taking; monopilizing the internet; sabotaging environmental protection; undercutting clean energy; tax cuts now that later are cuts in essential support for children, education, seniors, vets; a deficit designed to exacerbate income inequality, poverty and injustice; cynical rejection of science-based policies like the Paris Climate Change accords; hostile immigration policies that will lead to mediocrity in science and technology; a lack of urgency on deteriorating infrastructure that's already affecting productivity; political malpractice on health reform; a President who darkens the luminosity of American democracy and dithers away our moral standing and civil norms while the whole world watches.
The calm now presages the storm ahead.
Politicians don't heal; they could at least do no harm.
189
But somebodies (I won't say who) make fortunes on icebergs. So, full steam ahead!
23
Very well said and scarily accurate.
4
The GOP has done this dance for decades. The real puzzle here is why more Americans don't catch on to their game.
Politicians may not heal but they are certified heels.
6
I know how this is true from personal experience of various committees at church and other places. Everyone (the conventional wisdom) thinks that everything is going along wonderfully and they don't want to hear from anyone (such as me) who thinks otherwise. Then suddenly the oatmeal hits the fan and suddenly everyone is hysterical and pointing fingers of blame in all directions.
What do we learn from this? One is that there is a herd mentality in most groups or organizations. Most people would rather be wrong with their group than to be right by themselves. The other is that intelligent people will study the situation and prepare for the coming "crash" or "correction." Reality wins out in the long run. It might take a very long time but reality is going to win. Like mother nature is going to win. A state legislature (I believe North Carolina several years ago) might pass a law saying that state employees cannot talk about sea level rise. But if the sea wants to rise it will rise regardless of what the NC legislature says.
I often feel that my political thoughts and opinions are completely irrelevant. What I think or do is not going to change the outcome of any election or government action in Alabama. In fact, most politicians in Alabama would probably oppose anything that I recommended.
But I try to keep up with current affairs in order to try to manage my own life and business affairs according to reality.
36
Turkey's problem isn't the quality of Erdogan's advisers, bad as they are. Turkey's problem is Erdogan. In the Turkish financial crisis this week, Erdogan's advisers knew that they'd have to raise interest rates to prevent complete disaster with the lira selloff. But Erdogan "knows" that charging interest is evil and he doesn't care about inflation, and he stubbornly resisted raising interest rates to something that the market could sustain, delaying and delaying until the Turkish currency had nearly gone entirely down the tubes.
We have a similar problem here. Trump's advisers are plenty bad, but the real problem is Trump. And his misrule will not end well.
22
Funny, you seem to think everything in the US was honky dory before Trump showed up and that if he vaporizes tomorrow, that we'll enter a state of Nirvana? You seem to be forgetting how Bush engineered a US and worldwide economic crash that forced Obama to work so hard to clean up.
1
Turkey's politicians have been held in check since Kemal Ataturk founded the Republic after the Ottoman Empire collapsed. He was an army officer, the army has been the defender of the republic until recently. The army staged several coups to remove autocratic leaders. This time however Erdogan managed to thwart a coup. He began by having several high ranking officers removed and jailed prior to the latest coup attempt. This has allowed him to get Islamists and Islamic laws enacted in place of the secular ones the republic was founded on.
The Turks were our friends. They have hosted our spy plane bases during the cold war, but they have turned against us. They have treated the Kurds just as they did the Armenians, treating them like Donald the mad is treating the Mexicans.
Now his economy is crashing, they do not have much to trade, their treatment of other Europeans has curtailed trade.
We are seeing the same thing, just slower under Donald 1 the Mad. To pay the bills, drastic spending cuts will have to be made. You can see some of the recent budget proposals, big cuts to SS, SNAP, children's health programs. As I have said previously, the most vulnerable are first, the GOP loves these kinds of fake savings, The military which is basically a conservative organization gets more money, health and welfare less..
A new survey shows 40% of the public can not come up with $400 without having to sell something.
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Do you suppose those 40% are the same 40% who still support djt?
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No doubt the very same 40 percent that still supports Trump.
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Easy does it, David!
The Turks killed over 1 million Armenians.
How many did Donald kill?
There are some similarities between the two presidents but not as many as you say!
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“Someone looking at U.S. growth in G.D.P. or employment over the past few years who didn’t know we’d had an election in 2016 would have no reason to suspect that anything important had changed.”
The process of counting votes in American elections has been set up for concealment. It has been outsourced to a handful of private, rightwing companies that count the votes with no oversight and no accountability. That’s what authoritarian governments do, not democracies.
There's a vast amount of exit poll data which indicates that some election results are "statistically impossible," and pattern evidence such as exit poll discrepancies appearing in competitive elections but not in noncompetitive races.
Exit polls indicate that Trump did not win the Electoral College. That's why Jill Stein requested recounts in three suspect swing states. Lawyers for Trump and the Republican Secretaries of State went to court to shut them down and they succeeded. It is not credible that there were 75,000 undervotes in the Detroit area (a Democratic stronghold), where people voted for down-ballot races but not the presidency. Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes.
Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman: Why the U.S. State Department Would Not Certify Trump’s Election as Legitimate https://tinyurl.com/y8a7gqn9
The political landscape would be vastly different at the state and national level if we had honest elections, ballots counted in public.
#SayNoToFaithBasedVoting
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The latest in vote-counting shenanigans:
Barcodes Stir Anxiety As Georgia Eyes New Voting System https://tinyurl.com/ybut5bfu
It is very alarming that voting machine companies are pushing touchscreen machines which create “ballots” that have a “barcode.” Human eyes would never know which candidate was selected. It is important to mention that paper-marked ballots are not much better because election integrity advocate Jonathan Simon says that “ballots ‘almost never’ see the light of day.”
Why would election officials destroy the ballots during pending litigation and before 22 months as required by federal law?
Politico: Experts [Say] Broward’s Election Chief Broke Law Destroying Ballots https://tinyurl.com/ybkktvf9
Steven Rosenfeld: In Violation of Federal Law, Ohio's 2004 Presidential Election Records [and Ballots] Are Destroyed or Missing https://tinyurl.com/y9eo4ovp
Victoria Collier writes in her article below that the U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory issued a report after hacking a Diebold machine which said that “anyone with $26 in parts and an eighth-grade science education would be able to manipulate the outcome of an election.” The team leader, Roger Johnston, said, “This is a national security issue.” His warning has been ignored.
How to Rig an Election — The G.O.P. Aims to Paint the Country Red https://tinyurl.com/y9xx63f6
Joseph Stalin: “The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything."
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“Crises take longer to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine.”
Trump and his clown car of incompetents are showing the American public just why competence matters. We're seeing inappropriate responses to real crises in the world and in America. Nearly everything Trump, his cabinet, and the GOP say to the public is a lie. At some point, even if they are telling us the truth, we will not believe them and that will create an even bigger crisis of confidence and credibility. The GOP wasn't able to repeal the ACA. But they are killing it by making it impossible for patients and insurance companies to plan on anything.
Our infrastructure is in desperate need of repair and upgrading. Trump said he was going to have a beautiful bill and lots of money to accomplish this. What do we have almost 18 months later? Nothing and our roads, airports, electric grid, and transportation networks are strained to their limits. Maybe if Jared Kushner's car falls into a gorge when a bridge collapses Trump will fix things.
Trump has the attention span of a gnat unless he thinks he's not being praised enough or he's being abused. This is not how you run a company much less a country. He has surrounded himself with sycophants, yes men, and people who know nothing about government. This country made a big mistake putting Trump in office. Competence matters and it matters for every decision.
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Is it possible that our crisis will come when we all wake up one morning and read that Europe, China, and most of the rest of the world have agreed to accept the Euro and the Yuan for any and all debts including purchases of oil and everything else, on par with or even in preference to the American dollar? And that China has begun the first stage of unloading dollars? It would be costly for them as well as for us, but will they decide that Trump has infuriated them enough to warrant it? Even competent leadership, which we would not suddenly have, would probably be unable to avoid a dramatic short-term crisis and a substantial long-term diminishment of our economic strength. Will everyone else decide that our far weaker dollar, banks, and economy would mean relief from American bullying on climate change, Iran, the South China Sea, and countless other fronts? It might mean a poorer and less stable future, but a future the rest of the world would prefer to the servile acquiescence that the Trump team seems to expect.
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Having smart men and women in place is important, but in this administration smarts are obsolete. Trump's list of appointments describe corrupt or ideological interests, agenda-driven politics, corporate interests above national interests, capitulation to special interests, inexperience, incompetence, and ignorance of government and policy issues.
Trump balances his deep state gross neglect with false narratives declaring empty promises as wins, and proclaiming loses as victories, blaming others for his ego-driven falls. Trump omits details and specializes in logic flaws that reverse the truth.
Because America's economy is mature, it will take a while for these decisions to disrupt supply chains, lower market demand, and raise pricing. But Trump's fundamental agenda is based on blame. It's impact will be more devastating than the mistakes of centralized or concentrated authority (China's model).
Trump's willingness to put his personal interests first, to describe the world in amoral terms, to reimage global cooperation and alliances as conflicts and fights, and to engage in threats will slow growth, but not wealth. Your wages will be lower, your house payment higher, your car will cost more, your paycheck will show no change, your premiums will increase, your grandchildren will have lower academic performance, but to Trump, it's somebody else's fault, not his. So,thinks a man who could pay installments on $130,000 for a one-night stand.
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This is a very cogent analysis, Walter Rhett. It's always a pleasure to read your posts.
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"... politicizing law offers a disturbing preview of how Trump may become the authoritarian ruler he clearly wants to be."
But he already has, and with quite a bit of success. Here are two examples:
1. The NFL players and kneeling. It may have taken more than the season, but Trump got his wish when the owners came up with yesterday's scheme. The only reason they did is because of Trump and Pence's repeated barbs at the NFL owners and the players. What are players protesting? Never mind, if you're Trump or Pence. To them, the muzzling of Black men is a win.
2. Undercutting Mueller... Trump has been working the Twitters and through various actors we've deemed nutso in the public sphere, but who, so far, have gotten him results. Schumer says some members of the GOP have complained to him about Devin Nunes. Trump's tweets, lies really, are getting investigated by the DOJ, adding another layer of complexity and probably ending up in Mueller getting somewhat undercut, and creating a huge distraction in the process.
We're already there, Dr. Krugman. We were a plutocracy before Trump was sworn in. We've been an oligarchy since, authoritarian behaviors, corruption and all...
Where is the resistance? So far, all we really hear from Dems in Congress is pacifism under the guise of "e pluribus unum," as Nancy Pelosi said. Say what?
#ImpeachTrump!
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https://www.rimaregas.com/2018/05/24/what-e-pluribus-unum-doesnt-mean-on...
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I think Trump is terrible.
And if the Democrats take back the House, Trump could be impeached.
But I doubt the Senate would come up with 67 votes to convict.
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Independent,
Getting a consensus, both in the voting booth and in the Senate, takes applying constant public pressure, with teach-ins, sit ins, and the mass demonstrations we had in the beginning of Trump's administration. Appeasement is not any way to compel active participation.
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Get real! Impeachment is an extremist left wing fantasy: a total red herring. Dems calling for impeachment are self defeating, and in fact are feeding Trump and his GOP quislings the perfect rallying cry to get out the dumbkoff GOP vote this November. Folks, many voters may loathe Trump, but don't have the stomach for impeachment battles. Instead of attacking Trump directly, talk about restoring honor and integrity to the WH in 2020. Now, in 2018, get out of the house and work to give voters they want: Democratic candidates that effectively address and will work to solve state and local problems when they are elected to the House and Senate.
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