The Democrats,the back room part of the party,made a terrible mistake running HRC.Yes I voted for her.Why not get some baggage free candidates .All the college kids, and many boomers behind Bernie.Why did the machine squash that?What it accomplished,was trump.
I'm very concerned that Dems, this election, will again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. What must the Dems do to win? Repudiate identity politics and open borders; embrace economic populism to reduce the inequality gap. Identity politics alienates all those whose identity you are not promoting; especially heterosexual white males, since LGBTQA, people of color, and females are constantly pushed by the identity politics crowd; Hillary lost by campaigning on identity politics. Open borders isn't popular among anyone except Nancy Pelosi's special interest donors; keep shutting down the government for Dreamers, Nancy, and Dems will most certainly lose (again). Rectifying inequality has cross-party appeal and is the winning strategy that could have propelled Bernie to the White House, were it not for Debbie Wassermann-Schultz and her crew of Hillary boosters / Bernie suppressers in the DNC.
5
Democrats have to convince voters that Trump is not succeeding. Good luck with that! When people are more optimistic than they have been in a long time, claiming everything is awful rings hollow. Instead of that losing strategy, democrats should run on good news and positive results.
And they should definitely stop all the negativity towards fellow Americans. No one wants to be a member of a party that hates them.
2
It was the other GOP candidates for president — who look positively statesmanlike compared to this president — who made the initial mistake of treating him like a normal politician instead of an unstable, uninformed, insult-hurling rabble-rouser.
1
Maybe the Democrats are incompetent. But I think that's not the real issue here. The real issue is that white Americans fear a loss of status, and vote accordingly, which is to say for Republicans. How does one craft a political message that can possibly break through humans' basest fears and tribal instincts? Mustn't one conclude that the 'Democrats' Dilemma' is the racial makeup of the country?
Going forward we need to talk about issues without mediating the discussion through broad ill-defined terms with strong emotional associations such as “liberal”, “conservative”, “progressive”, “nationalist”, and the like. What does that add to the discussion of the merits of an issue? It merely puts the cart before the horse.
We generally need to respond to the actual words people use and arguments that they make. We should be pretty sure of ourselves before we assume that someone is dog whistling. Not every concern expressed by a voter is part of the Southern Strategy. It’s much more likely than not that the following argument will be unsound: You said X. You really meant (or that’s really code for) Y. Y is loathsome. Therefore you should be ashamed.
The person who made the argument will be in a good position to know if you’re wrong about what they really mean, by the way. And that person will probably be infuriated by the arrogant presumptuousness of distorting their words.
We should also be wary of reasoning that depends on name calling, applying labels, or broad ill-defined terms to carry the weight of the argument.
1
The mid-term elections are not about Trump. They're about Americans.
Trump is the ultimate entertainer, and what is politics, "en fin de compte,"but entertainment.His magnetism, wit, spirituality and spontaneity are a boon to ratings, which even MSNBC and CNN would be the first to admit!Combine those qualities with the economic prosperity his presence in the WH has engendered, and have a hunch he will be unbeatable in 2020.Trump has exposed the phoniness and hypocrisy of the left, lack of substance, and for those of us who sought authenticity, he is balm in gilead!Douthat is among the most objective of the op ed columnists:He analyzes,but does not vent or proselytize. Am reminded, when reading him, of FSF:On the one hand this; on the other hand that!
Douthat has a great admiration and possibly love for Trump that shines behind the advice to Democrats. He sees Trump as full of mojo, and asserts that Democrats are full of rage and gloom, seeing Trump as the antichrist. Trump slipped in between the cracks of Hillary group- think, but if the Democrats field a decent candidate this time they will beat Trump soundly. The chances of candidates from left field are less because Democrats are chastened by the loss. Let see what happens at the midterms.
1
The reason I am bullish for the Democrats this fall is that minorities are incredibly frightened of Trump. Minorities usually don't vote so they tend to be ignored by the pollsters and slip in under the radar. However most Hispanics and Blacks I know, see the coming election as a do or die -- I mean die in the literal sense of death. There are a lot who feel that losing may be their death and there is nothing like the fear of death to motivate people. Keep in mind that Roy Moore overwhelmingly won the white vote in Alabama (including women). He lost because almost ALL the blacks voted against him. And keep in mind that Texas is 40% Hispanic and Arizona 30% and if they lose the Senate in those two states, the GOP loses control.
Ross thinks it is business as usual; there is no mortal threat to our democracy, and our government is not for sale to the highest foreign bidder. I desperately hope he is right.
1
Trump's only "accomplishments" have been to demean the presidency, to undermine environmental protections, and to destabilize international security arrangements. The Republican congress' only accomplishment has been to pass an appalling tax bill that will exacerbate inequality and sabotage the federal budget.
Those records should in themselves be enough to produce a landslide for Democrats in 2018. They shouldn’t need a catchy bumper-sticker slogan or thread-the-needle issues positioning to coax swing voters back to their side or to motivate the distracted and apathetic. The spectacle of a flagrantly failing president and a cravenly corrupt Congress should be enough to have them running to the polls to provide a check on Trump and to rebuke Republican leaders for their betrayal of everyone but their donors.
Will that happen? I suspect that the simmering angering of decent, informed Americans will produce a significant change in the balance of power in November, regardless of what messaging the Democrats adopt. But if that fails to materialize even in response to the outrages of this administration and congress, it will necessitate a fundamental re-evaluation of American democracy that goes far beyond fine-tuning campaign messages.
1
The Democrats should'nt have a dilemma. Just ask all people to go and vote, no matter how difficult it is for them, gerrymandering or not!
1
C'MON ROSS. No amount of dressing up this cretin with political nonsense will change the fact that he is ignorant and dangerous. The Democrats problems arfe interesting and minor. America's problem is ,possibly, existential. The big lesson, hopefully learned, is how dysfunctyional and venal Congress is. The fvounding fathers could not have possibly forseen this situation ; the potential end of the separation of powers.
"The dumb ways would be either to just rehash Hillary Clinton’s failed “look how terrible this guy is” messaging or to turn the rhetorical dial all the way to 11 and talk constantly about treason and fascism and the looming fall of the republic."
Isn't this was you see on cable and broadcast TV, left-leaning print/internet media 24/7?
I hope they continue :)
2
Trump is "in desperate need of policing, oversight, constraint"?? That is a winning message for the Democrats? Oh, yes, I can feel the passion of "oversight."
I will tell you what is an oversight: it is the Democrats' abandonment of the lower and middle classes, leaving the struggling to keep on struggling while "Establishment Democrats" (aka "corporate Democrats") offer milquetoast, tinkering-around-the-edges proposals ("Better Deal", "Better Deal for Our Democracy"), hoping not to offend Republican voters so that, possibly, Republican voters will vote for a Republican-lite candidate over a real Republican.
In the meantime, most Americans are losing hope of being able to afford higher education, being able to afford needed medical treatment, or just making it economically generally. Hey, Democrats, how about a little help?
Knock it off already with the corporate fundraising and parties with the well-off, and offer something worth voting for:
1. Universal health care
2. Free _public_ college tuition
3. $15 minimum wage
4. End poverty/discrimination
What is so wrong about having a society where everyone is healthy, educated, and economically secure?
Health, Education, and Prosperity for All
I would vote for it.
3
Yup, and if you don’t get all of your wishlist you’ll stay home or vote third party so you’ll get none of it, plus a repeal of what you already have. Have you compared the 2016 Dem platform to the Repubs’? Perfection is the enemy of the good or even the status quo. Because Trump / Repubs are not status quo, they’re about making things (much) worse for the poor and average Americans, for women and minorities.
1
Actually, Clinton had a broad and serious policy agenda with help for all Americans in it, and talked about constantly. But you guys were too busy covering Trump rallies and Clinton's emails and supposed "untrustworthiness" to bother reporting policy. Or to peer a little deeper into Trump's crooked, ugly past. Or to investigate the sources of the disinformation propagated at light-speed by foes of democracy. Everything we know now about the his campaigns's foreign was out there for you to find, but nobody bothered looking until it was too late.
The press "normalized" him enough to make him a credible candidate -- a man with a history of racism, bankruptcy, fraud, mob connections, and self-dealing. Clinton was viewed under an electron microscope, Trump through a misty telescope. Own this, Ross. The problem is not with Democrats.
3
By now everyone knows Trump's style all too well. Nothing is gained reciting his boorish, indecent behavior.
Hope the Dems concentrate on policy proposals and their vision for positive, decent behavior into the mid-terms. Dems should not even utter his name.
2
The US economy is doing “well” because of the policies put into place by Chairman Bernanke and President Obama. The current Republican regime is blowing it all up with deficits and trade wars, for the next Democratic majority to fix. Deja vu.
2
Presiding over a party elected to write bills and pass legislation in the spirit of statesmanship to solve the country’s problems, but has failed to do so, is not an advantage in the upcoming November elections.
In fact, it is quite the opposite.
Republicans still left in either chamber after November have a decision to make and must choose sides if they want to remain relevant.
Choose either the Original GOP or the Freedom Caucus GOP, the later a plague on our political system that needs to be isolated and killed off like a virus. False equivalence between both sides concentrated in one party was a lie.
Both Trump and his beloved ‘Poorly
Educated’ that created this mess need to pass a Civics Test.
It was summer sunlight today, where the rural countryside looked splendid, and Mr. Otter who will always be a Republican, was en pleine forme, or fine fettle, with his wry sense of humor, telling me he had just finished talking to his friend 'Trump', while placing the groceries in his car. I reminded him that he was far brighter than Trump on a light note and a smile, and he added that his grand-daughters are receiving awards for work they have accomplished to help others.
Do you remember Wonder Bread, he asked. Of course, I replied, it is delicious. Well, I used to wear the package bags as galoshes to school, he continued. Amazing. In return, I told him of the joys of school at nine, where food was a privilege and comic books were burned. It was all about Bible-reading and eventually I wanted to become a nun.
He goes with his family to Woodside in Queens on Memorial Day, his brother from Zone 13377 Remembered, and it sounds like an Irish Affair. Giuliani showed up once, he added and I asked why, while mentioning that my boss once had a strong dislike for Al D'Amato. Because They are All Crooks, he replied.
Trump is so outrageously 'normal' that it is unbearable to think that we are probably going to be saddled with him for another Term. Not an original concept in that head of his, was my first reaction when he was running for President.
Mr. Otter and I may not agree but we are in America. Trump somehow got beamed to the Moon.
1
I think the policies that need to be talked about are: 1. The undermining of Obamacare and the loss of well paying jobs if the Republicans are successful. 2. The Tax Cut for the Rich, Bait and Switch plan. In two years your taxes go up, unless your income comes from being wealthy and powerful. 3. The environment is still important. Let's not go back to the 60's where rivers were combustible.
The economy was doing well before Trump took office and has continued to do so. Growth hasn't gone up and unemployed has gone down but not very much. Yet somehow conservatives with the aid of a credulous press have sold the idea that things are going much better since Trump took office.
2
The number of new jobs created was greater in 2016 under Obama than in 2017 under Trump. The economy grew at a faster rate in both 2014 and 2015 that in 2017. And the budget deficit has exploded under Trump going from $540 billion in 2016 to a predicted $850 billion this year and over $1000 billion by 2020.
If the Democrats could come their senses on the immigration issue they would win. Mass unbridled immigration is recipe for disaster and many people who are liberal on other issues voted for Trump because of this one issue.
Gaylord Nelson the founder of Earth day said... "But in this country, it's phony to say "I'm for the environment but not for limiting immigration."
For lots of people it's not really an issue that has anything at all to do with race. It's about population growth and the environment. We are headed toward close to a billion people by the end of this century if immigration rates stay the same.
Maybe it's time to compromise?
7
And, where are these migrants coming from that are going to add another billion to our planet? Or do you mean that immigrants are somehow responsible for population growth?
The dilemma: the Koch brothers garnered $1, 200,000,000 in tax breaks every year going forward with their political 'investments'. Buying votes and buying Democracy works. The Democrats dilemma is: how do you compete when the big money is on the other side?
Let's second guess ourselves, and lets hate our own leaders whose names are recognizable-- yeah, that sounds like success.
As a moderate Democrat, I believe this was an excellent analysis and valuable advice for my party. I hope the party follows it.
6
All the Democrats can hope for is taking the House of Representatives. Simple strategy here: Focus on what the Democrats of your local district want. Get elected and then work on political issues.
4
The Democrat's Midterm Dilemma?
From my point off view, the Democrats are still shell-shocked from their defeat at the hands of the Republicans. I hardly read anything about them in the news, and I wonder if it's because they're doing nothing, or Trump is such a news item, that he's in the papers day in and day out.
The Democrats had better start to think of the mid-term elections and get going. I want to see them in the news fighting the BS that Trump keeps spewing out of his small mind.
The last I read about the Democrats they had passed a bipartisan bill with the Republicans. That's not news that I want to read!
Where is Pelosi? I never hear from her either!
Attention Democrats!
There's 6 months to go, and with the summer recess, that leaves 5 months. Get off your keisters, and start doing something, otherwise the USA is in for 2 1/2 more years of Trump and his abysmal cohorts!
4
Unemployment may below but wages are still stagnant. Therefore, harping on the economy is not losing strategy as long as it's done with real life stories and not charts and graphs.
1
That may be the least compelling and least Trump-specific message there could be. Washington is a grift that’s in desperate need of policing, oversight, and constraint has been the campaign message of everyone running for President or Congress since forever. Trump ran on that!
3
To anybody with an ounce of personal integrity and sense of social responsibility, Democrats should not be seen as a dilemma in any way, shape, or form. Unless one is willing to debase oneself in obvious ways, choices couldn't be more clear or more unambiguous in meaning.
1
Does the man read his own newspaper? Haven't we read/heard all the stories (Virginia and Alabama 2017, Connor Lamb) where Democrats ran on local issues and not against Trump.
In fact, didn't Ed Gillespie in Virginia try something called "Trumpism without Trump" and it failed?
Also, Douthat, like most in the MSM when they replay the 2016 campaign, ignore the fact that Trump was the first presidential candidate in American history to run with no political or military experience. So, what, EXACTLY, should his opponent have done since he had no record to run one?
There is a third way for Democrats; run against the "Do Nothing Congress" since that is reflected by their record. Take what Douthat thinks is their strength, no mistakes like repealing the ACA, and turn it into a weakness. There is plenty to point to to justify this from pollution to income inequality to tax fairness to infrastructure to concerns over health care.
Especially health care since even with full employment it continues to be a problem for many.
Dems need to stay away from McGovern-like policies like a job promise for everyone.
And if the Dems want a slogan, make it "The 4 Pillars:"
Social Security
Medicare
Education
The environment.
No civil war in the party over that.
4
Missed a pillar or two.
Jobs jobs jobs.
Wages wages wages.
2
That's where education comes in.
Trump only won because a significant percentage of swing voters thought he would be far more “presidential” in office. Instead, he has shocked and horrified two thirds of the nation with his twelve year old demeanor. Even a significant percentage of his base doesn’t approve of his daily behavior. Despite being at nearly full employment and giving the rich a massive tax cut, Trump peaks at only forty-two percent. This is on a good week. If Muller doesn’t get him first, the inevitable recession that is coming sometime before 2020 will more than seal Trump’s fate. People are people everywhere, but America is a long way from being Italy. There is simply no “Trump-2” waiting in the wings.
3
Democrats seem to be winning now by recruiting candidates who are a good fit in their own district and have detailed agendas that appeal to more voters...moderate, liberal, and conservative. The ones who have won in Republican territory have had the right message for their district. The moderate and more liberal
members of the Democratic party need to come together and support the most viable candidate when the midterms come around.
Those candidates with compelling strategy, good arguments and a solid plan are winning now. Treating each race (all 469) on their own merit seems to work better than having a national-level messaging.
3
The economy isn't supplying The Jobs We Need, it's supplying The Jobs We Have To Take (now quite literally, thanks to SCOTUS). The Democrats have a winning message in the twin issues of inequality and good governance.
But we're still in primary season. They haven't been driving the message home at the local level, and there's no oxygen to be found at the national level -- we just had a royal wedding, after all!
The tax cuts remain enormously unpopular. The ACA remains historically popular. Trump is facing a constant drip of new stories detailing corruption among his cabinet and closest associates. And his unhinged policy towards Iran is already driving the price of gasoline up (historically this is one of the best indicators of electoral outcomes). Wage growth continues to be nonexistent, even as whole local economies grind to a halt for want of migrant laborers.
It will come down to turnout, and the punditocracy never sees these things coming (after all, shocking wins and upsets are great for ratings).
If the Democrats go the distance on open borders and sanctuary cities, and against the right of census-takers to establish citizenship, they will be massacred at the polls. One hopes this throttling will bring the party back to their senses here on planet earth.
9
It is truly scary how far the Democrats have gone on this issue. They are hand and glove with the extreme corporatist wing of the GOP and Koch Brothers in favor of no borders and unlimited population growth.
Unfortunately, if you are a "Barbara Jordan" Democrat from the 1990's, there is zero room for you in the party anymore.
3
“Second, his foreign policy, however blunder-rich, keeps failing to produce the feared descents into war — the main metric by which voters tend to judge success or failure overseas.”
Questionable whether that’s even a metric for either party’s voters, let alone the party in power. They love their wars regardless of success. War makes them feel manly; makes money for defense contractors; and protects the interests of multinationals.
I and many voters judge the success or failure based on different criteria: did the government lie about their motives, tactics, and results; how many soldiers and civilians died to achieve nothing, worse outcomes, more war; the extent to which our country’s reputation is damaged; and who profits from war. We are angry when our government supports repressive, authoritarian, theocratic, and misogynistic regimes. We notice that there is always plenty of money to kill foreign citizens (and imprison our own,) but never enough to invest in bettering our citizen’s lives. We would rather kill other countrys’ children than invest in the education and health of our own. Viewed through that lens, the last just war was WW2. It’s not enough that we haven’t started a new one. We want the current wars ended.
Our standards are much higher than than what you describe. Your statement rationalizes your leadership’s incompetence and lacks both moral judgement and logic.
3
Yes I agree Mr. Douthat that if Americans can close their eyes to the fact that Trump is a mobster and dictator wannabe, the Democrats will have trouble winning many seats this fall. There's no doubt this is is a distinct possibility but sooner or later this country will pay a terrible price. I'm seriously depressed by this editorial.
2
"Why gamble on socialism when the Trump economy is already supplying the jobs we need?"
The trump base was not worried about their jobs!
They were worried about their their lousy incomes and a future where their economic utility was looking desperate in the face of technology and foreign competition.
What did trump give them?
No job training -No infrastructure spending - A Tax cut for the rich that drains government social spending for the foreseeable future - Trade pacts and tarrifs that mean nothing to the average trump acolyte AND irrational spending on an immigration problem that doesn't exist. -And of course full scale idiocy regarding climate change -education and women's rights.
The snake oil is flowing like wine and it's gonna bury the GOP!
3
2016 proved that Democrats cannot win merely by being against something or somebody. Democrats need to be for something. Democrats also need to run candidates who are better than the one they ran in 2016. Trump proved that he can beat a miserable candidate, and I hope that is a lesson Democrats learn for 2018 and 2020.
For all their talk about gerrymandering (which, of course, is irrelevant in Senate races), Democrats must realize that not all voters are as vocal and animated as the extremes within the party. Just because a Democrat is more moderate than the extremes does not mean the Democrat is racist or deplorable. Another lesson from 2016.
5
Coming from a poor black American culture, not very religious, but respectful of all the cultures I have yet to intersect, there are not many issues, other than corruption in our democracy, that appeal to me with the Democrat's talking points; yet, I am not convinced that the current crop of old Democrats, not you Bernie, are free from corruption in government.
My only focus, at this juncture, is to deny my vote to any Democrat that wants to open our southern border to a culture that does not respect my culture and the country my ancestors worked so hard to build.
Half of my ancestors came from Africa via the second passage, the other half were the British holding the muskets; I stand with them.
36
Bernie used to believe in enforcing our borders and even acknowledged "open borders" arguments as a Koch Brothers scheme to drive down wages. Unfortunately, he has abandoned this entirely in order to capitulate to the far left no borders crowd.
In addition, while Bernie talks a great game, when it is time to walk the walk, he has (very quietly) doubled-down on military Keynesianism, supporting Lockheed's budget-busting F-35 fighter jet & basing it in Burlington, in spite of very negative impacts on his constituents, mostly the very people he pretends to care about, i.e., low-income; working poor; immigrant refugees from Africa and Asia; the elderly; and the disabled.
Finally, yes, there is potential corruption involving Bernie (though doubtfully in the same universe as Trump). His wife was made president of Burlington Community College; engaged in possible fraud combined with political pressure to get special financing and then ran the college into bankruptcy; and just when the Obama-era led-FBI came knocking, all of her office files and computers conveniently were "stolen" from the now closed and defunct college, never to be recovered. . .
11
Of course at some level facts should matter. No matter what Trump and the populist Republicans say, Obama handed Trump a healthy economy and the lowest level of illegal immigration into the U.S. 49 years.
15
JRS--Good comment. That's why we need new, young blood in the party. And, yes, Pelosi, Schumer, and Feinstein, to name just a few, are just as corrupt as Republicans. Primary them out, when you get the chance. Remember , it will take some time, and patience, to build a better party. Don't abandon us, now.
3
Although I remain a progressive I am no longer a Democrat. Treating a specific political party as being synonymous with a set of values is folly.
Buried in Mr. Douthat’s column is the fact that “…the second possibility…is already being tried out by Bernie Sanders and a clutch of ambitious senators, who are offering single payer and a job guarantee as the Big Ideas that will crush Trumpism and deliver a new Democratic era.”
Yet the title of his piece refers to “Democrats" having a dilemma.
In my view the top-down-follow-the-leader Democratic Party cannot be repaired. Given the opportunity to follow a leader whose principles, policies and experience are already well known, many progressives would voluntarily opt to follow him or her.
5
Didn't the Democrats in 2016 reject Bernie Sanders and his ideas as being unworkable?
2
Tony -
I believe that was Bob Swift's point.
Tony,
That in itself would be sufficient justification of the Dems' incompetence.
For Democrats to win the midterms they need candidates that match their districts, offer voters a detailed plan on health care, the economy, education, and other crucial issues. They need a good strategy, strong arguments, and a real plan for how they can win. They need to appeal to their voters with their own qualities demonstrating their intelligence, communication skills, and hard work, and work diligently to build the voters trust.
2
How about simply focussing on the manifest failures of the Trump administration? The failure to repeal and replace Obamacare with something better. The failure to pass immigration reform that deals with security issues and makes America once again an attractive location for the best and brightest around the world. The failure to pass tax reform that benefits the middle class in every state while addressing the exploding federal budget dificits. The failure to stimulate the economy so that wages grow faster than the rate of inflation. The failure to create more new jobs in his first year in office than Obama created in his last. I could go on. There's no need to harp only on the disgusting cesspool of corruption Trump has brought to Washington. Let's put an end to these failures with a Congress capable of passing successful legislation to save what's left of our economy, our environment, our educational system, and our future. Peace.
2
The problem for the Democrats is still that people know what they are against, but no one is really sure what they are for.
5
This is a false narrative CarpeDiem64, pedaled by Republicans and those on the right to sow discord among those on the left and dampen enthusiasm.
Democrats are for many positive things that they can be proud of, including:
Universal health care
Income equality
Tax fairness
Improving the quality of the environment
Improving public education
Building and improving international alliances
Fair trade
Meaningful civil rights
Improved public education
Worker's rights
Worker's right to bargain with their employers
Women's rights, and
Fair immigration reform, to name a few.
6
Thank Dan
For what it's worth, I am not on the right. I consider myself to be a centrist. Much of the above is great, but so vague as to be nebulous. The Dems need to present three or four specific policies they would implement if they were in power that have strong appeal through the country.
If not, as Douthat says, they risk losing some very winnable midterms if the GOP simply rides on the economy.
Dan, that's not unlike those who point to Hillary's campaign platform, which also recited a bunch of cardinal liberal virtues. It convinces no one.
6
Trump’s economy: 2.3% growth. Labor force participation rate is down. Wage growth has stalled. The deficit and the trade deficit have exploded. Health insurance costs are up sharply. Consumer protections have been abandoned. Lying about these facts doesn’t give GOP sycophants much credibility.
5
Nor does it give much credibility to the Left, which claims that the economy is strong and this is a continuation of the Obama economy.
3
How nice of a Republican to offer Democrats advice, as if democracy is correctly reduced to a branding exercise.
Perhaps more useful would be for column inches to be spent discussing actual Democratic policy proposals.
https://abetterdeal.democraticleader.gov
2
Good idea. Are there any?
4
The funny thing is, Lynn, for Democrats to be able to enact their policy proposals, they first need to win electoral and legislative power. For a variety of reasons, and not just Republican gerrymandering, they have failed.
6
You certainly don't want Republicans sullying good newsprint that could be used to advance the liberal agenda. Which kind of validates the critique that we conservatives have constructed in the last 50 years.
Look. Either you adhere to traditional liberal pieties about free and open discussion, and then get to bask in your own intense self-approval. Or, you view the press as war by other means and act accordingly. But that risks becoming like the people you claim to detest.
You can't do both.
5
That "best economy" in possibly twenty years is essentially the same economy of the 2016 election. The late 90s Clinton boom was much better in one regard--average people's wages went up, which still isn't happening under Trump's watch.
3
What Democrats have to remind people is that Republican are allowing the institutions to be eroded, as well as checks and balances. And that might not seem to be a problem while they are in power. But one day the pendulum will flip, and Democrats DO like to use the government to organize our lives. And do you want Democrats governing after Trumps actions can be used as precedent?
And don't think it can't happen here. Trump was not supposed to happen either...
2
The Republicans have bowed to the corruption of our government by Trump and his cronies, and refuse to hold him accountable for it. That's the campaign issue for the Democrats.
2
Funny thing about politics, when the economy is doing better voters are free to vote for other priorities they are passionate about. Democrats just need to get out there and talk to voters to find out what those values are and then propose solutions to them. Voters know that Trump is disgusting so that's not going to inspire them to vote for Democrats. Those Democrats who have won have focused on the issues that matter to their communities and they refuse to get bogged down with identity politics.
FDR ran a pretty boring first campaign. He couldn't afford to give his opponents amunition. Once he got in office he kept winning because his government took steps to address the issues that were directly impacting communities across America. His programs stabilized the banks and farms while focusing on creating good paying government sponsored jobs that helped local economies long abandoned by the private sector recover and prosper.
Democrats would do well to remember that by taking care of the working class instead of corporate America and the wealthy their party was in power for quite some time. Whoever delivers on making life better will win for the foreseeable future. Historically GOP policies have been bad for the working class but they're better at exploiting the identity politics that divide us. Let's see if Democrats have learned their lesson.
43
From your lips to the Dems' ears, Ami. The best thing for the GOP is for the Democrats to go full Social Justice Warrior.
11
If the Dems go full SJW, they will replicate Mondale's experience in 1984. Have at it.
10
FDR bought his consensus for those programs by allowing black people to be excluded from the programs and benefits. FDR's coalition vanished with the Civil Rights Act, and Republicans have nakedly exploited rqcism ever since. You can believe this is all about economics, but the truth is that it's mostly about white fear and resentment and contempt for people of color. LBJ said that you can pick a poor white man's pocket if you just make him feel he's better thsn a black man. I see it with utter clarity now, what I willfully chose not to see for much of my life as a white person. The price of a New Deal has not changed since FDR's day. "Identity politics" is right-wing pejorative code for "civil rights" and "racial equality." To cast those things aside is to lose our souls.
2
About 57% of voters don't have to be convinced that Trump is a disaster they already know it...conversely 40/42% of voters are set in stone for their support of Trump.
So there is about 10/12% in play...a anti-corruption message could sway these people to vote Democrat.
4
Just noticed my numbers are way off...never mind should have been Trumps accountant.
2
This is a joke, right? The pessimism among Democrats ignores the reality that they’re winning special elections in Republican districts and are energized from top to bottom, with a large number of women running for office.
Douthat isn’t the bright bulb he’d like us to believe. From his cave he views the world in black and white with little to no grasp of what’s happening on the ground.
I do, because that’s where I volunteer, and I see a dynamic and energized Democratic Party running (and winning) on local issues.
And gerrymandering still favors Republicans.
As for those who doubt Russian interference, you’re not paying close enough attention. The intelligence communities both domestic and foreign warned us it was happening. All evidence points to the uncomfortable truth that the last election, and warnings have been issued that they’re going to try it again.
Finally, Millennials are far more liberal than Boomers, and they’re angry about guns, their low pay, and their poor job prospects. They represent the most educated generation in history, and they’re both angry and politically active.
Douthat wouldn’t know this. He’s too busy listening to his own voice.
6
This is all meaningless.
Mueller's findings will determine the outcome of the midterms unless Trump actually leads us into a war.
1
For decades, many in the Democratic Party's base have been pleading with it to stand for something other than second-hand Republicanism. To take on the right wing narrative growing in extremism, and present an inspiring one of its own to fight for. But it never did. Not well and not enough.
And so, he far right wing has gained power unprecedented in modern times, bringing its propaganda and its cynicism to bear on democracy, the rule of law, our electoral system, even the Constitution. And it is succeeding in remaking America in its own cruel and selfish image.
It's now, or never, Democrats.
This midterm election must be about what the Democratic Party is and finally, what it stands for, and why it is better for America and Americans.
The Democrats must shatter the false equivalence that the Republicans have cultivated to present the cynicism, the corruption, the lies, the bigotry, the greed, and the selfishness at the heart of the far right wing narrative as the unshakable norm, and the weakening of effective democratic government and our national moral character as the unavoidable price for change and prosperity.
Democrats must do that by embracing change themselves, by reconnecting with all Americans, by embodying the best in America - the honesty, generosity, idealism, belief in democracy and the can-do spirit that builds a country, instead of dividing it.
Democrats - be the "Better Angels" *Democratic* Party - believe it, embody it, and fight for it.
6
The toughest thing to quantify, nationally, is the quality of the candidates running for office. Yet that is the single most important metric for these mid-terms. Luckily, we have many compelling, Democratic newcomers talking about local issues and concerns. Ironically enough, when we look back I don't think this will be seen as an election based on national-level policies or a referendum on Trump.
1
So much grabbing at air.....the Dems are toast .. many Republicans on the counter ahead of a drop in the toaster slot... Political "parties" do not serve the interest of the citizenry and in division make simple the ability to manipulate..
2
I’ll keep advising the flailing DNC on this until they get it into their thick heads: it’s the identity politics, stupid!
Stop talking like it’s still the Stone Age for LGBTQ people. Stop telling us that we’ve come nowhere on race. Stop pretending that it’s always 1950 for women. Stop telling white males that they need to apologize for being born white and male, while celebrating their demographic demise. Stop calling all disagreement with progressive values “bigotry.”
This may activate the hard left of the Democratic base, but it also activates the hard right. This calling out every possible iteration of humanity by color, gender, ethnicity, sexual orientation and sub-sub group is not unifying, but atomizing – even on the left. It is alienating to the vast swath of Americans, of both parties. It puts the focus on (what should be) relatively unimportant differences rather than the shared values and goals of the larger American family.
How do you think Trump won? From where do you think Trump gains his fuel? With what issues do you think the GOP distracts voters from their pillaging of the middle class?
Americans are starving for a rhetoric of genuine inclusion and solidarity, that we are all first and foremost “Americans.”
It’s really not all that difficult. Get back to the business of the Democratic Party: unifying the largest possible segment of the American population around it’s shared middle class economic fate.
10
The party does stand for everyone. That’s the point of including the groups you mention. The problem is when Dems and Repubs don’t like those groups and believe we should hide or revoke our support for them. I don’t want Dems to sell out those groups when it’s politically expedient. We already have a party that ignores or vilifies them. Join the Republican Party if you share their values. We’ll take the younger voters who don’t understand what you’re making a fuss about.
My point is that if you want to help LGBTQ, women and minorities thrive, then developing ways to support and grow the middle class is by far the best way to do that, because that is where most of them - most Americans - live.
It would be a far more effective way to move the needle on social justice than another hashtag, girl anthems at rallies, or shaming straight white males for existing. And it would have the benefit of putting Democrats in power in order to enact legislation specific to those groups' interests.
Jeez, Douthat, of COURSE you think democrats have a midterm dilemma if you think Trump literally has to start a war for voters to disdain his foreign policy decisions.
That's the lens through which we have to view the late reference to a Mueller "bombshell." Nothing realistic would satisfy people like Douthat. Trump is, no pun intended, unimpeachable according to the standards being set for him by venues like the Times.
1
As long as income inequality continues to grow, including where the new wealth goes (corporations and the already wealthy), only a fool and/or a wealthy American, would describe life in the United States as "prosperous" , or as good as it has been in 5,10 or 15 years. Hard work does not improve living conditions, healthcare is an un-affordable, predatory (pharma, for-profit health-care systems, for profit insurers, gutting of Medicaid, for starters) mess for most of us, and the cost of a college education for those not born wealthy is working as an indentured servant to some lender for a good portion of ones working life. If this is "the new normal", tear it down - it is techno-feudalism. I'd rather leap.
3
Wow, a whole article on how to beat Republicans that didn't mention their million dollar tax cuts for the 1% including Trump and his cronies while the rest of us get diddly - see Paul Ryan's now deleted tax cut Twitter about how exciting it is that the secretary saved $1.50 a week.
3
I agree - it would be a good idea to never mention trump even in a presidential election - just present what the republicans are taking away and present your platform.
1
"Why gamble on socialism when the Trump economy is already supplying the jobs we need?"
Could we please stop calling it the "Trump economy" when neither the President nor his party in power have done thing one that would have ANY kind of true impact on the economy yet much less have created some sort of jobs nirvana as Douthat implies here? Even the GOP's singular economic idea from the past half-century (tax cuts....nothing but tax cuts) hasn't been sufficiently in place yet to make any reasonable short-term extrapolations about what their effect on the economy will be. Like it or not, these are accomplishments that occurred on Obama's watch. Deal with it.
4
The problem is really not an issue of Democrats versus Republicans per se. The country is moving from the proverbial Bell Shape (Normal) distribution to a significantly skewed distribution. This is in terms of income, wealth, education, morality, ethics, beliefs, compassion for others, you name it. Trump found what is known as an arbitrage in Finance and got elected. While that in the short run made things awful for most of the population, it will serve as a wake up call to change the basic ideology of this country. You have to understand that most of what the Republican Party stands for is bad for the long run, of course if you believe in any sort of a fair and use society. You studied at Harvard, you should know something about Rawls. Does anything the GOP says or does has anything to do with what is described in The Theory of Justice. Jack Rawls thought he was destined for Divinity School before he found his way into Philosophy. The Democrats in the Midterm and next Presidential elections should read or re-read that masterpiece. They will find all they nee to win there if they can vocalize it.
3
The Democrats need a message more compelling than opposition to Trump. It’s been 18 months since the Democratic Party was carried off the field on a stretcher, and still there’s no new game plan. If there is a cohesive Democratic game plan beyond a Clintonesque rallying cry of Aren’t-those-Republicans-awful-! I don’t know what it is. Shouldn’t I? I’m pretty engaged. If I don’t know what the Democratic Party stands for 6 months out from the 2018 midterms, what are the odds that the bulk of voters Democrats are hoping to woo know what the party stands for now? The goal of the Democrats has to be more substantive than simply taking President Trump down a notch or recapturing the House. The Democrats have to lead. How can anyone follow if we don’t know whether the party intends to go someplace we want to go?
6
I would definitely vote for Francis Crozier, James Fitzjames, Thomas Blankey, and Thomas Jopson. I would not vote for John Franklin.
I think major issues that Democrats could win on are:
1) Gun control. After the Parkland and Santa Fe shootings younger voters are galvanized to rally behind a candidate who supports reasonable gun control measures like a nationwide 21 year old age limit to buy any guns, universal background checks for purchasers of handguns and assault rifles.. 2) Go green. Emphasize recycling and urban sustainability. This too will attract younger voters. 3) Attack Trump on the honesty and integrity issue but don't go so far as asking for impeachment. 4) Paint Trump as anti-woman and a supporter of sexual harassment. That gives Democrats four hot button issues to attract voters particularly younger voters--- gun control, environmental issues, Trump's personal integrity and women's issues particularly sexual harassment. I think that should be enough to win.
3
Donald Trump is appalling in a thousand ways but, for some unknown reason, Democrats approach opposition to him from a moral standpoint. As if trying to foist the amoral, venal, and duplicitous Clintons back on us in 2016 was in some way the moral thing to do.
3
“They did it too & worse.” That excuse doesn’t get children out of trouble in kindergarten.
I would expect Trump to discover his presidential powers given under the Patriot Act, declare his opposition to be terrorists and have them rounded up and sent to Guantanamo, liquidated one by one--that's what a strong man would do. Wait for the stable genius to figure that out.
1
The easiest path to beating Trump is to be the adults in the room. Unfortunately, there's a loud cohort in the Democratic party primarily invested in complaining that adulthood is racist, sexist and xenophobic. Certainly, American political adulthood has been all of these things to and at various extents and times, but currently to a far lesser extent than ever before. What bathroom you use is much less significant than whether your sexual preference is a crime or whether you can vote.
Democratic party leadership seems convinced it needs the enthusiastic support of this cohort. It does not.
Abstractly, human beings have difficulty thinking in high-dimensional spaces. George Washington was a great man but also slave-owner. Christopher Columbus was brave and intrepid, but committed atrocities. Athens was a beacon of enlightenment, unless you were a slave worked in the silver mines.
Hitler at least is easy, precisely because the negative side of the ledger is immense while the positive side is insignificant.
Trump, like TV, excels at low-dimensional thinking. Progressives will never beat him on that, absent a catastrophe so disastrous voters can only think of how to end it. Political strategy should not be catastrophic.
Trump and his allies are a clear and present danger to our Republic, and to everything progressives admire about it. We need to think practically about how to win, and sort out our differences later.
2
The great irony is that Trump rides on the momentum of an economic recovery created under the Obama administration. His tax cuts have not spurred capital investment or done anything else to create jobs, though the stock buybacks they engendered have helped to support the stock market. Corporate profits are up, but there little sign yet of much trickling down to employees in the form of wage growth. The momentum will run out eventually when the debt load begins to hurt demand via higher interest rates and reduction in social spending; barring an oil spike, though, it could take years.
1
Democrats made their big mistake by embracing the "New Democrats" strategy of abandoning pro-working class positions on issues that would assure a more equitable distribution of income in this country, such as unions and a tax structure that makes corporations and the uber-wealthy pay their fair share. Understandably, the working class saw this and began to view the party with suspicion. The election of Obama was a blip and repudiation of George W. Bush, who was just so awful. But the suspicion remains. Democrats will need to work very, very hard and really embrace some FDR-style reforms to overcome the general perception that they are feeding at the corporate trough, just like the Republicans.
4
"Why gamble on socialism when the Trump economy is already supplying the jobs we need?" Are you being obtuse or willfully ignorant Ross? This economy is not supplying the jobs we need. Current jobs don't pay enough to pay for the basics food, shelter, transportation and a phone. Nor do they pay for a decent retirement, massive mortgages and student loans. JOBS THAT DON'T PAY ENOUGH TO LIVE ON ARE NOT THE JOBS WE NEED! You bet I am screaming, so is the majority of the country. Get a grip Ross.
3
For the Democrats to win in November they need to have candidates that show leadership ability, transparency, and
accountability. They need to focus on jobs, the economy, health care, education, immigration, sensible gun control, climate change and the environment, the importance of the rule of law in this country, veterans affairs, and so many other important issues. They need to speak the truth and have a moral compass and compassion. Focusing on issues as Ross Douthat mentions in this article seems to be the way to win for Democrats in the midterms.
2
Douthat forgets that while the jobs numbers are great, the jobs income stagnates as it did under Obama. People have jobs but they are low paying jobs and the tax cut that was supposed to produce (magical) wage hikes has not materialized.
Republicans smartly downplayed all of the economic and employment improvements under Obama (or like Trump denied reality by claiming "Obama has corrupted the BLS") and concentrated on stagnant wages and low worker participation rate.
Democrats should aim at the stagnating wages and the growing income inequality caused by the "bait and switch" tax cut.
3
For many people, the Democrats' entire message seems to be, "We hate Trump. We love minorities." These people, 50% of whom are not deplorable, ask, rightfully so, "What about me?"
Until Democrats improve their messaging and tell people they care about improving their lives, they are in peril.
P.S. Endlessly repeating "billionaire class" and "99%" (thank you, OWS) is not a platform.
6
No, that's not a "platform;" it is however the present and very anti-American condition of our society/economy.
I've thought along the same lines myself for months. "Normal" has shifted. And what is "center" anyway? It's the midpoint between two perceived poles, drifting whichever direction fashion and complacency dictate. If the greater part of the spectrum as a whole has shifted right, then the "center", by definition, has shifted right along with it.
The Democratic party can let Trump effectively do much of their campaigning for them, one tweet at a time, as they've been doing over the past year-and-a-half. But a greater part of the electorate is already getting used to it; and the absurdities broadcast from the White House are becoming less newsworthy.
3
'Why gamble on socialism when the Trump economy is already supplying the jobs we need?'
Because so many of these jobs do not provide a decent standard of living nor needed, affordable health care. Also, where is the promised wage growth from such low unemployment? Vast swaths of working people are barely making ends meet, are no where near the historical definition of middle class and do not have any reasonable hope of bettering themselves by the work they have nor hoping for a better future for their children. The scales have tipped too far in giving power to those already at the top and the Republicans are working every day to increase that imbalance. Despite a rising stock market, the future is not bright for me, or many other working Americans.
5
The fact that Trump was elected despite very low trust and popularity scores demonstrates just how severe the animosity toward the Democratic starus quo had grown. Democrats aren’t really running against the Republicans, who remain pretty weak on policy, but against their own ideological bloat and agenda overreach, bordering on micromanagement.
Democrats have expanded their ideological doctrine to the point that it’s downright Chatechismal. It covers everything from word choice to dietary and exercise practices to fashion and dating, bathroom use, religious practices, social and workplace behavior, television and theater preferences, and so on. Being a Democrat nowadays is a full-on life commitment, like joining a monastery.
That’s never going to be popular. Back off. Let people be themselves, and focus on a few major public policy issues.
11
If the messaging of the upcoming California primary is echoed on a national scale, the Democrats are doomed. California has many real problems: a critical housing shortage, gridlocked traffic, chronic water shortages, a vanishing middle class, and hyper-expensive everything.
What are chief Democratic talking points expressed in television ads? Help immigrants and raise taxes in the form of nine dollar bridge tolls! While there is no viable Republican party in California, this advantage does not extend across the national political arena.
11
The way to win is to head to the polls like a swarm of angry hornets and win elections from coast to coast. Any discussion beyond that is just wasting time.
2
Republicans as "stewards of prosperity?" They took Obama's 4.7% unemployment and, by sprinkling deficit-funded tax cuts mainly on corporations and the rich, managed to lower that to 4%. In the meantime, the GOP, the Trump regime and a reactionary SCOTUS are busy upending consumer protections, worker rights, healthcare and the environment. All this against a backdrop of rising prices and creeping inflation. It's a devil's bargain, at best. But count on Trump himself to make the best argument for Democrats. The man is a disaster waiting to happen, a little like one of his many bankruptcies.
4
The Democrats that have won races so far have done so mainly on local issues, or at least larger issues that affect local folks. But that doesn't mean disgust with trump and his administration had no part. I think if candidates can also show how the vileness of dishonesty of trump and his administration actually harm the voters in their districts, those become legitimate issues, and they can talk about them and win.
And they need voter turnout. Get people of conscience to the ballot box.
There are still more of us opposed to this foul president and his vile sycophants than in favor of it.
1
"Between the ineffective poles of Trump sleeps with porn stars and Trump is a Manchurian candidate lies the most compelling Trump-specific message: That his administration is a grift that’s in desperate need of policing, oversight, constraint."
Yes, but your Op-Ed omitted to mention one important thing: The Messengers. The persons delivering this message, the Democratic party leader and congressional candidates, must represent the Anti-Trump. The Dems won't win a majority in either 2018 or 2020 unless they throw out 'Crooked Hillary" and field a team of clean, eloquent, charismatic technocrats.
2
Unfortunately, politics before all other considerations is about gaining people’s attention and resonating with their feelings, their emotions. No matter what the soundness of an appeal to rational considerations, how people feel will always determine their choices. It works that way in our daily communications and it works that way in political communications as well. Trying to appeal to people rationally is futile when a really good manipulative person is playing on people’s emotions.
To convince people rationally you have to engage them when their emotions are calm and their minds are alert and able to focus. Once people have become enlightened, then they will reject arguments that that they know are just ridiculous.
25
We must promote that enlightenment regardless of perceived political expediency. America is wallowing in a pig-sty of nationalistic-Christian prejudice. The ancient religions are falling short against the challenges presented by technological change, the population explosion, and the limits of the planet.
8
Ross Douthat's comment about the GOP not having to deal with the "replace" part of the "repeal and replace" element of Obamacare is hardly grounds for celebration by the Republicans. Did he forget that in the budget bill or any other bill that will probably be put forward IF the Republicans retain power in the Congress, they stated specifically in order to deal with a massive increase in the deficit(of their own making), they would "re-evaluate" social security, medicare and medicaid? There is also the issue of what is occurring in healthcare now.
On this alone, the results are already in for all to see. As a result of healthcare coverage in general, i.e. rising prices, unpredictability going forward, in the first year of the Trump Presidency, over 3 MILLION Americans are without healthcare who had it the year before. This is predicted to increase by another 9 MILLION in 2018.
Much like the CBO reporting that as a result of the tax cuts, the original projection of a 1.1 TRILLION dollar increase in the deficit will actually be 1.9 TRILLION. along with this current healthcare fiasco, what I find most puzzling is why has this not been reported more widely in the media? Clearly, the American voter would consider the current status of Trump and his administrations policies(or lack of them) on these matters critical to their voting decisions.
Is this is what is considered normal? No longer provide vital information to American Citizens or downplay it?
4
It might be the greatest economy in 20 years if you're rich, but for everyone else, nearly full employment isn't so hot if the vast bulk of that employment is in subsistence-level jobs.
3
While this is a reasonable opinion piece overall, how the heck are we even arguably experiencing the best economy since 1998? The author writes that Trump is "presiding over the best economy in 10, 15, maybe 20 years." No, he is not. We currently have around 2% GDP growth. It's the best economy since 2014 (look at the stats for yourself). This isn't bad - sure, it's the best we've seen for three years. But that's it. And facets of the post-Great Recession economy decried by Republicans in 2016 (relatively low labor participation rates and wage growth) have stubbornly persisted. Income and wealth inequality have continued to get worse. For obvious reasons, Republicans are claiming the economy is amazing, but if Trump hadn't won you can guarantee they'd be saying the opposite about the exact same economy. But why do otherwise reasonable journalists perpetuate this political fiction?
3
Ditch the 70 year old leadership and find more data driven common sense solutions rather than freebie handouts.
7
Pushing the same old milquetoast garbage in hopes of attracting conservatives has been proven a losing tactic. The best thing democrats can do is to stand for something rather that against Trump. Those who stand for living wages, labor rights, environmental protection, voter rights, civil rights, free education through college and single payer health care get support.
6
I'm not quite sure how they can do it, but Dems need to get people to ask themselves certain questions, and then provide policy answers when people realize what their future really looks like. Questions like:
1. How much will I have to pay out of pocket for medical bills if I get sick or injured?
2. What are my plans for retirement? How much savings and income do I expect to need vs. how much I will have?
3. What are my future career prospects?
Too many people don't think about medical bills because they haven't had major illnesses. Too many have no idea how little Social Security pays, and just how much those minor-sounding tweaks Republicans want to enact will reduce that amount. Too many have jobs (maybe 2 or 3) that let them pay the rent now, but don't realize the deck is stacked against their wages going up enough to meet their needs in the face of future inflation. And the fact that they have no leftover income to start saving for retirement hasn't even occurred to them, because that's a problem too far down the road to worry about right now.
6
This article is based upon the fallacy that the economy is great for everyone. It's not. Corporations and the 1% used the last recession as an excuse for cutbacks and givebacks by employees, and those cuts are still being felt around the country. A campaign based upon populism - that the economy is rigged in favor of the 1% and corporations - rings true because it is true. The stock market may be doing well, but wages have not kept pace and the average $20/month tax cut for workers isn't making up the difference. Voters need to vote for something - a policy or a person who promises to make a difference in their lives. Hillary offered the opposite of that and lost. Democrats need to proactively offer a better world through better policy that is going to benefit the 99%, or they are going to continue to lose.
3
Why are Democrats so weak?
When Gore beat Bush in the popular vote, Republicans persuaded the Supreme Court to give the election to Bush—and then to say that this decision would not set a precedent for others! Instead of fighting this absurdity, Gore conceded.
When Merrick Garland was nominated to the Supreme Court with over a year left in the Obama administration, Republicans refused even to meet with him—and then appointed their own. If the roles were reversed and the Dems controlled both houses of Congress, do you think the Republicans would have acquiesced?
If a foreign government hostile to the U.S. clearly helped Hillary Clinton win, collusion or not, isn’t it likely that Republicans would have successfully demanded that the presidential election be invalidated? That their candidate be declared a winner; at a minimum, that the election be redone? Trump said during the presidential debate that he and his followers would have done so if he’d lost—that the election had been “rigged.”
Wouldn’t they have been successful even if the other party controlled both houses of Congress?
Why aren’t patriotic Republicans and Democrats coming forward with an undeterrable unifying voice to challenge the validity of the election rather than impeachment?
I fear that by the time the Mueller report comes out—if he’s not fired first—or waiting for the midterm elections, that the damage to our cherished democracy may have passed a point of no return.
We the People…now!
4
Democrats could start by getting their own act together. We just survived a primary election in Arkansas. The results weren't bad: the more or less sane Republicans and the moderate Democrats won nominations. I assume
Republicans will win all the actual elections in November, but am hoping about one congressional seat. What was interesting to me was that every Republican ad I saw pictured or mentioned Nancy Pelosi, sometimes more than once. As one local noted, Republicans are running on guns, abortion and Nancy Pelosi. Democrats could do something about one of those today. Allowing Democratic leaders to keep their jobs after the debacle of 2016 suggests that the Democratic Party is not serious about regaining power.
13
I think the nation, generally speaking, has settled into a kind of ho-hum attitude with respect to the now always expected, and become normal, Trumpisms, regardless the level of incredulity, so long as he doesn't give away the store.
So, this, along with a vibrant economy, and the reality that the world at large is developing a new, albeit somewhat nervous respect for Trumps America, is likely to work very favorably for the Republicans in the midterms, the thinking being, why rock the boat when everything seems to be moving along so nicely.
Insofar as foreign policy goes, any deal with North Korea, and Iran, both of which will produce good to great results, will guarantee that Trump will breeze into his second term, and if enough readers saw the story on the newly discovered (hidden 'til now), missile construction and testing site in the Iranian desert, (said to be testing intercontinental missiles), methinks the reneging on the nuclear agreement with Iran will be seen as having been the right thing to do.
The sad inexplicable thing during all of this, considering the outrageous nature of the Trump regime, is how mired in quicksand are the Democrats, apparently lost in the wilderness of their own minds, tossed about like so much flotsam on this Stormy Trump Sea.
Surely we can't be witnessing the slow ignominious death throes of the Democratic Party, one hopes, before the midterms, they have some real tangible offer(s) for their disaffected base.
7
The media deserve most of the blame, not the Democratic strategy. Opponents of Trump were quick to point out his career of fraud and corruption, but the news media preferred to focus on the more sensational aspects of his despicable character. Attracting attention that way may be more profitable for the media, but it plays right into the hands of conmen like Trump, distracting from the more serious issues.
7
And pray tell how the mainstream media is to remain in the limelight; sensationalism sells, "Bigly".
2
Yeah yeah yeah. Kill the messengers because we’re incapable of reading widely, thinking critically, and making up our own minds. Sounds like a personal problem to me. It isn’t mine.
Ever heard of the marketplace of ideas? No ideas, no marketplace. Then we base our decisions on what? Putin’s? 45’s? The paranoid next door neighbor’s? God?People who think the voices in their head are god?
No thank you. Please look into the concept of prior restraint and why US founders had such a problem with it.
1
The "New Dems" look a lot like the old Democratic Party, accepting large campaign donations that encourage, or even guarantee, corruption. And its message is mostly anti-Trump and anti-Republican.
The Democratic Party and its candidates would be best-served by eschewing large campaign donations. And, instead of focusing on Trump and the Republicans, the Democrats need a positive vision that could encourage voter support (sorry, the "better deal" slogan doesn't cut it).
3
Ross’s advice, at least in this forum, will fall on ears as deaf as those targeted by my own good-intentioned advice to Democrats, which is to move to the center and craft their arguments around that stance, lower the tone and field attractive candidates. And even outside this forum, I see NO evidence that Democrats are materially taking the advice, except anecdotally. My sense is that after all the hoopla, all the desperate hopes pinned on a “blue wave” that seems less likely with each passing day, they will merely have postponed by two years the need to come to peace with Trump’s election.
Democrats have a legitimate role to play. As Republicans unwind excessive regulation, they need to be in there pitching for retaining the necessary elements, such as those pieces of Dodd-Frank that seek to constrain the excesses of the “mega-banks” including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs; such as environmental laws that protect our air and water; such as state attacks on voting rights and Roe v. Wade. If a strong Democratic Party doesn’t do these things, what and who will?
But it’s going to be hard to overcome a roaring economy and actual movement forward internationally along lines that many Americans favor, such as North Korea, Iran, greater participation by Europe in our common defense and, of course, illegal immigration.
I’m beginning to see Democratic hopes for 2018 going over the hill, with Abraham, Martin and Ralph Nader.
5
The formula for Democrats to win is not all that complicated. If they turn the 2018 election into a discussion about morals, Russian collusion, porn star hush money, about Trump being a brazen mean guy, illegal immigration, and/or executive overreach, they lose. If they talk about the priority issues that are most important to the American people (their financial well being, jobs, and to an extent American global leadership), and if they put forth specific policy solutions to those issues, they win.
The icing in the cake for Democrats will be if they can also articulate specifically how Trump/the GOP have only furthered the interests of the DC Donor Class swamp, and left the middle class, working Americans and small business behind.
Of course I have no faith in the Democrats to actually listen to any of this. They’ll find a way to blow it, especially since their current set of policies and leaders are woefully uninspiring (seriously why are Schumer, Pelosi, and Perez leading the party?). They can only win elections these days if there is some sort of black swan event (Iraq Civil War, Financial Crisis).
To make matters worse, Trumps approval is up, and many recent polls show a tie in the congressional ballot. Given how bad things broadly are in this country, how is this possible? How inept are the Democrats? Where are the Democrats these days? This party always seems to be asleep at the wheel and 2-3 steps behind.
92
Democrats are inept and weak. Schumer is incapable of public speaking without reading it from a poorly written, passive tense riddled script and he doesn't read it well.
9
It’s not the Democrat’s midterm dilemma really.
It’s America’s midterm dilemma.
7
"Normal" does not equate with "right" or "just". As an example, from 1941-1945 "normal" was WAR. Post Hiroshima, "normal" was mass post-radiation death and destruction. In Syria, "normal" is not knowing if you will wake up dead or alive. In our schools, "normal" is the realization that you may be assassinated at any time because of lax gun laws.
In today's political environment, "normal" is total absence of moral compass; incessant lying, probable Russian collusion, self profit, pathological narcissism and diverse criminal activity at the highest level.
This is what our children are being taught - that there is no consequence to your actions; take what you want; spend anything you want irresponsibly and, yes, it's ok to kill.
The age of dreams and attainable hopes - the "American Dream" - is rapidly disappearing. WE, THE PEOPLE, have the Constitutional right to regain our hopes and dreams for our children. WE THE PEOPLE have the responsibility to actually make America great again - and I do NOT mean in a Trumpian perversion. WE THE PEOPLE, as represented by our elected officials, are doing nothing to this end. The time is long overdue for WE THE PEOPLE to end this tribal obscenity and make peace with ourselves - the rest will follow accordingly.
1
Beyond Ross Douthat using a right-wing poll to justify the claim of an equal playing field, playing fast and loose with the state of the economy and how it got there, and completely ignoring our trashed and dangerous "foreign policy," I think the very bestest part is his notion that Republicans have no responsibility whatsoever to their country.
It's all on the Democrats. Can't say I'm surprised.
4
Sure Ross, let the Dems go full tilt to the left. That is a sure fire way to insure that the GOP keeps full control of the Congress. I am confident that every Republican pollster will endorse this strategy since it guarantees that many GOP moderates and independents will vote Republican no matter how incensed they may be by Trump's lack of character.
The problem with the Dems is that they hate Trump so much that they can't realize that he is probably the best Republican President with which to broker deals to enact moderate policies. Trump is no real Republican, and certainly no conservative. He is a moderate Democratic populist masquerading as a conservative Republican.
If the Dems could just get over his character defects and their pall mall rush to the left, they could actually dilute the GOP vote in House and make the Senate the real deal maker. But they won't. They have this fantasy that there are enough left wing voters in America to put their Bernie agenda into operation. They will likely find out otherwise.
6
Trump may have pretended to be a Dem in the past because in NYC he needed to kiss up to Dems to get what he wanted, but with his dictatorial inclinations he's never been a Democrat. We don't need a president who needs to be flattered and bribed and personally benefit from a proposal in order to sign off on it. That's corruption. You don't understand Trump much and Dems not either. They will have candidates who appeal locally, moderate if that's what locals want, and more left-wing if that's what they want. Democratic and Republicans presidents until Trump took pride in serving the country and its citizens, not themselves first, whether you agreed with them or not. Trump is an anomaly and his character defects taint the presidency and the reputation of the country. That's not something to "get over".
Love the perspective here that somehow Trump is only the Democrats' problem.
2
The real problem for Democrats is that they do not have a credible agenda. Lacking that, they cannot be the credible opposition party the country so desperately needs. I am still waiting to hear where the Democrats stand on trade issues and waiting for them to say something about the immigration issue other than that they support sanctuary cities. Those are the issues that got Trump elected. At this point the Democrats represent chiefly the interests of illegal aliens and the gender-confused. Their disdain for white working-class voters is all too obvious. Hard to build an electoral majority that way. We might suffer with Trump, but the Democrats are simply not a credible alternative
6
Unfortunately for Trump and the GOP, the 2018 elections will not be decided by the Electoral College.
I, for one, am not too concerned about the tightening of the "generic ballot." Republicans always come home to their party in time for the election, regardless of how disappointed with their party they may or may not be.
Democrats win when they turn out the vote. They are not going to "turn out the vote" by tacking towards the center because there are few persuadable voters at this point.
The vast majority of the country have already made up their minds concerning Trump, and although local issues are certainly important in specific political races, all mid-terms are effectively a referendum on the incumbent president.
This particular president has so polarized the country that the only way one party or the other will win is if they excite their respective bases.
Democrats understand who comprises their base. The ground-game this fall will make all the difference. I am confident that the Democrats will outwork the GOP this fall.
Ross you were 5 when Spinal Tap came out so I guess your reference is vicarious. You missed Watergate so you need to have a history lesson. Republicans turned on Nixon, thank you Senator Baker, when the "smoking gun" tape came out. Nixon was dealing with obstruction of justice, 3rd rate burglary, and a b & e, or so. Trump is also dealing with obstruction, but his other crime is treason and conspiracy to commit treason. And yes Mueller's indictments and reports will make the difference.
1
Mr. Douthat makes a valid analysis of the dilemma facing the Dems. When the answer to the question “are you better off now than you were two years ago” is likely to be “yes” by at least half of Americans, and those are the ones who vote in larger numbers, it is hard to beat. A quick look at why is obvious.
Half of the population doesn’t want to be forced to buy health insurance. They no longer have to.
Half of the population doesn’t want to pay taxes. They now pay less.
Half of the population doesn’t know or care aboutclimate change or the environment. It’s too abstract.
I would suggest more than half of the population wouldn’t recognize a good paying job, understand the value of a 401k or a pension, because they never had one.
Government guaranteed jobs? Their reaction will probably be “ I am not paying for it.
Good healthcare? They never had it, so they don’ know what it is.
In this environment, all Trump has to do is scream Mexican rapists, Corrupt Hillary, and no taxes. Add a little bible thumping and surround himself with a few attractive women, and there you have it. He wins.
Dems have only themselves to blame. For way too long they have allowed the Republicans to set the agenda for the nation, ignoring their base. The Republican agenda is the only agenda half the nation ( plus one) knows.
69
Agreed 100%. Democrats generally sit back while Republicans control the narrative and national agenda/priorities, and frame the issues, while the Democrats are too afraid of their own shadows (and corporate donors) to take a firm stand on anything, and instead lay down.
17
With all due respect, DJ, your obvious contempt for those who don’t think like you do, not to mention your false assumptions about what those people think and believe, are reasons Dems are losing nationwide.
5
"Half of the population doesn’t want to pay taxes. They now pay less."
The other half doesn't pay any at all. That's the problem.
4
"Why gamble on socialism when the Trump economy is already supplying the jobs we need?" Because those jobs still do not pay a living wage. Because people still have to work 2-3 jobs to survive. Because wages haven't gone up appreciably since Regan. The trickle-up economy isn't and hasn't worked and Democrats need to pound that issue over and over and over.
3
blundering foreign policy? ISIS wiped out, Korea at the table, China tariffs falling. some blundering.
5
Trump continued Obama's policy for dealing with ISIS. The only reason Kim has come to the table is because he now has nukes.
To bring a politician down this is a rule:
Americans latch on to personal transgressions.
Big policy debates may turn the ship over time.
But, disgust over creepy individual acts, based on facts and repeated consistently, can turn the public on a dime.
With Trump, there is so much constant creepy it's hard to make a particular, nauseating, infuriating transgression stand out.
So, you have to make old chestnuts fresh by harping on them anew. Rehash, refresh.
1) Use the words treason and traitor often.
We don't need Mueller's report to sling these words daily. Just harp on this: no presidential campaign in our history has ever gladly met with a foreign adversary to get assistance in bringing down their opponent. The Trump Tower meeting is treason in plain sight. And, all the other contacts with Russians (something like 30 times) bolster the charge.
Make that charge!
Say "treason" out loud and often.
Make it NEW by repeating.
Donald Trump is a traitor!
Harp!
2) Trump University.
Easy to understand, very sleazy. A man creates a phony "University" solely to defraud average Americans (whom he now claims to champion) - to essentially rob them.
Paid $25 million to settle with his victims and stay out of prison.
That man is Donald Trump.
Bludgeon him with this crime - it will stand out - it's never really been harped.
3) Let's get personal.
What do you think of a man who cheats on his wife with a porn star, just after she births his son!!
Harp on that!
5
Well, that sounds like it will bring the country together. Hillary won 487 counties. If she goes with that plan, she might drop to 477 counties.
3
Probably the best and most cogent synthesis, Ross, of the Demos available Mid Term strategies I've seen in an article-Great job!
And no, if there is one thing the Democrats ought to have learned from their 2016 debacle it is that in a national election in 21st Century (except for diehards or radicals) the American voting public ,sans a crisis or a major war, prefers comprehensible and targeted solutions to our nations problems-Rather then simply a constant litany of character assassination (masquerading as policy).
So yes, by all means, come November, if the Demos plan on countering Trump and the GOP's rope-a-dope style of campaigning then they ought to focus ,lazar sharp, on issues that have meaning to the general public at large. (Like school shootings, like the cost of a college education and the concurrent lack of access for the average college age child to higher education, like the opioid crisis , like the nation's crumbling infrastructure, like providing access to safe and consistent internet service for rural and under served areas of the country-And yes, like the cost in human lives and national treasure for promoting an unwinnable war in Afghanistan). And leave the rest to Robert Mueller, and Trump and the GOP's tendency to over reach and over promise-And for Trump to, assuredly, wheel out his latest version of his Administration's rolling demented clown show.
2
Incumbent Republicans must be taken to task for failure to exercise oversight over Trump's craziness. They confirmed dozens of lobbyists and billionaires who have dismantled parts of government that are working. E.g. incumbent Republicans on Education Committees who have confirmed Betsy Devos and not questioned her protection of exploitive for-profit colleges; Environmental Committees that failed to question Carl Icahn advice to abandon pollution regulations that personally enriched him and failed to remove Scott Pruitt for his endless scandals; Oversight Committee that failed to hold hearings on Trump's ethical violations; Foreign Affairs committees that haven't questioned Jared Kushner on his deals with Chinese and Japanese. The primary message, however, must be an economic agenda that contrasts with Republicans inaction or move in wrong direction: raise minimum wage, rebuild infrastructure, control cost of medical care including drug prices, protect social security and medicare, make college education affordable and make rich pay their fair share of taxes.
2
Trump actually RAN on "corruption, the sleazy, sordid, self-dealing side of [prior] administrations and the obvious reluctance of [congress] to execute more than a cursory sort of oversight."
His supporter knew it, even though the Media had long ignored it, at least during Democratic Administrations and D majority congresses.
Now MSM and anti-Trumpers act as though this is the very first time abuses have occurred.
Now he is pointing out abuses that Americans have long seen in the Justice system. Disparate prosecutions. Unfair investigations that drive targets to bankruptcy as surely for minor misdemeanors as for members of his administration. The IRS used to "punish enemies" and government contracting to "reward friends."
Americans have lost faith in the system that has abused them. They're smarter that they're given credit for.
1
Democrats must appeal to issues that people actually care about. Few real people care about Trump's sex life, dirty business deals, or even Russian election influence, believing that all politicians engage in these behaviors.
Real people came most about their economic fortune. Luck has favored Trump as the nation recovers from The Great Recession. Still Democrats have a small chance of convincing voters that the Republicans are steering the money to the wealthy, denying ordinary people of wage increases.
People also care about their health and health care, education for their children, and the expense of child and elder care. The menace of firearms in schools is also palpable.
Also, the overwhelming number of Americans are not racists. Attacks on guys, blacks and other minorities are not popular. What does not work is the constant accusation of whites as racists and somehow privileged.
Last but not least, what counts in American elections is who votes. The same nation that elected Obama, elected Trump. The difference was which voters bothered to vote.
2
"Had Republicans actually passed their wildly unpopular Obamacare replacement".
Actually, as another Times editorialist pointed out a few weeks ago, there was no work done on replacement. The entire effort was based on denigrating and dismantling a Democratic accomplishment, leaving millions of people to pick up the pieces. Which to me meant "Republicans don't know how to run a government." That's why I, an independent, am voting Democratic in November, regardless of what else the parties do..
2
Douthat writes: "Why gamble on socialism when the Trump economy is already supplying the jobs we need?" I wish he stopped using charged words, especially about matters he doesn't understand. There is nothing about single payer health insurance or full employment labour policies that is "socialist." Remember the Humphrey-Hawkins Bill? It's still on the books. A "safety net" that protects all citizens from occurrences that are usually outside the control of those affected is not "socialism."
Trump complained about matters being rigged, largely because he wasn't the one doing the rigging. Now he is in the position to pull the strings, set the rules and decide if and when they are observed. Mr. Douthat, ask Prof. Zingales why he was averse to academic life in Italy (senior tenured academics ran the show like feudal aristocrats.
Socialism never will take hold in the US, as can be seen by public reaction to the latest round of a series of Republican tax cuts that are designed to provide the bulk of the reductions to those at the top of the income ladder. The hoi polloi seem to be happy with the crumbs and are indifferent to the prime cuts going to the rich. White, middle class voters, ensconced in their carefully zoned neighbourhoods, were happy with Hillary's neoliberal message.
The only message that the Dems can offer that has broad resonance is to include more currently marginalized citizens within the rules of the neoliberal economy set to benefit the owners of capital.
2
Why should Democrats keep reaching out to Republicans when Republicans not only don't reach back but increasingly move to the right in response?
After going back and forth for weeks this thought led me to come down for Stacy Abrams over Stacy Evans yesterday.
When the 6th District voted to replace Tom Price, Dems came up short and the seat remained Republican. Ossoff and his people spent way too much in time and money reaching out to Republican voters.
Whichever Republican candidate Abrams faces in November they are already falling all over themselves trying to reach the furthest conservative position possible. There are folks who will eat it up, leaving a lot of ground starting at right of center.
Mr. Douthat may be right, and as Trump says "Time will Tell" but better to go down swinging, aiming at your beliefs than trying to convince those beyond persuasion.
5
Two issues will determine the quality of our lives for a very long time: 1) global climate change; 2) wealth inequality.
Consider what America will look like in 20 years, unless these issues are dealt with effectively. Consider our national mood. What will it be when flooding, droughts, and searing heat waves drastically and negatively affect food supplies. What will it be when the gap between 'haves' and 'have nots' is such that a quarter of the population is hungry and sick - and the super-rich aren't paying taxes (enough, that is, to maintain our much-vaunted military).
Dystopian hyperbole? I don't know. But, for a second, take global climate change and wealth inequality seriously, and imagine what our society, riven by resentment now, will look like if these two issues are not dealt with effectively.
Our democracy - even the appearance of it - won't necessarily survive, and, even if it appears to, it won't be healthy. It will be much less healthy that it is now.
Both major political parties should be paying these two issues a lot of attention. (Actually, all parties should.) A national debate about them should be raging.
Instead, we're talking about Trump's tweets, neckties, and hairdo, and his breaking of norms, and the possibility that he might have broken some laws.
In my view, the Dems must see that global climate change and wealth inequality are central to every Democratic candidate's campaign to make winning big a real possibility.
3
Making the mid-terms about issues and policy proposals is what Dems must focus on. Health, education, the economy, trade, international affairs, the environment, gun violence, infrastructure and, yes, taxes, too, are what most Americans really care about. Many of Trump's ideas ( that is all they are ---they aren't policies) lack substance and are frequently thinly developed and tinged with outdated jingoist fear and loathing of the other. The Dems know what to talk about---that is what they should be doing, now and in doing so they will successfully draw a clear distinction between what they advocate and the tired --backward Trumpian / Republican play book. The reaction against Trump is deep and powerful; anyone who marched against gun violence or in support of women's rights knows that at a visceral level. Dems need to focus on real issues and their plans for moving the country forward in a positive, progressive ---and truly American, way.
It's still a long way till the midterms, and Mueller indeed might release some bombshell. Nothing yet, but there's plenty of time. Hard to imagine something worse than the Access Hollywood tape three weeks before the election, but who knows? A clandestine strategy meeting between Trump and Putin at Mar-A-Lago, for example?
And there are two big differences this time:
1. Trump's not running.
2. Hillary Clinton's not running.
This time around, Trump's not on the ballot and the Democrats have strong candidates, not just some mediocre flip-flopping retread who can't manage to beat a coarse neophyte like Trump even after the Access Hollywood tape is released three weeks before the election.
True, some of the Democratic primary winners may be too "left" for voters' tastes the general election, but plenty of time remains for them to tack toward the middle -- as many of their Republican opponents will be doing from the opposite direction. Primaries nearly always disfavor moderates, who might fare better in the general election but won't get there because they can't get their party's nomination. The trick is, and always has been, to appear just left-wing enough (Democrats) or right-wing enough (Republicans) to win the primary and then to persuade general-election voters that you're actually a moderate.
It's not easy. Just ask Bernie Sanders, on the left, or some Tea Party type, on the right.
2
How the politics of normalcy are boosting Republicans. YES, the Republicans are normal folks, the Dems, not so much.
1
"New Dems"? What, like New Coke?
I can see the tagline now:
"Meet the new Dems / Same as the old Dems"
2
All these prolix comments; almost none of which agree with our redoubtable columnist...It only makes me believe he is on to something...Trump et famille et amis are a bunch of grifters...But our bien pensant word processors on the liberal wing will miss the opportunity to miss the opportunity.
1
Ok Dems, here it is... keep it simple stupid... scream to high hell about high gas prices, high housing prices, no good paying jobs (just lousy minum wage jobs), preiums for health care going up, out of control drug prices, and social justice for everyone espically African Americans, Latinos and Women. Do everything and anything to register Latino voters in Blue territory. Oh, looking ahead would be nice to find a canidate to run in 2020 that will univite the party, not divide it.
2
Canadian philosopher, historian and freedom of the press advocate John Ralston Saul saw Trump coming in his 1992 NYT best seller Voltaire's Bastards (The Dictatorship of Reason in the West).
Don't confuse neo-liberalism with liberalism. America was meant to be a dynamic educated adaptable society and people like Douthat love Bronsauri and hate small adaptable insectivores.
The United States I was brought up to believe in died August 15 1971 when the American dollar became the world's fiat currency and Bretton Woods was ended. It takes a long time for a brontosaurus to die but the world is starting to smell the dying carcass,
Don't blame liberals for the US adopting the economic system of the 18th and 19th century. Technology has meant change was demanded and like the comet that put an end to the age of the dinosaur the USA could (can) adapt fast enough.
Ross Douthat is the problem not the solution.
1
The comment section is unbelievable level of denial and wishful thinking. Blame the electoral college system as much as you like to, but AMERICA ELECTED TRUMP. Whether voters are decent people or not is irrelevant - they elected someone indecent.
If the Democrats were pulling left and staying focusing on fringe social issues, and based on local elections they are, this will not a year for big election wins.
2
Ross, you are on the mark. I am conservative Republican, but I did not vote for Trump. I want to vote for an alternative to a Trump sycophant, on the one hand, and a raving, tin-foil-hat left-winger, on the other hand. I don't mind if the Democrats can impeach and remove Trump from office, if they do it for legitimate reasons, such as corruption or sleaze. In fact, I welcome it. However, I am not buying all their crazy conspiracy theories about the Trump and the Russians (the only evidence we have a campaign working with Russian to affect the outcome of the election is the Clinton Campaign though a foreign agent name Christopher Steele), and I am not comfortable with impeaching a president for exercising his rightful authority to fire an FBI Director who desperately deserved to be fired. Surely, given all the inappropriate things Trump has said and done and all his conflicts of interest, the Democrats can find something on him that does not involve a convoluted theory of working through six degrees separation to tie him to Putin.
23
Charles: It is likely that the Russian investigation will not play a big deal in the upcoming election. The corporate media has so overplayed this issue that the American people are sick of it. Only if the Mueller investigation uncovers real evidence of criminality will this resonate with the electorate. I doubt that such will be the case.
6
You're mostly correct, but dead wrong about the Steele being the only evidence of potential Trump conspiracy with Russia. Anyone paying attention would know that there is a great deal of independent evidence already made public, and undoubtedly Mueller's team has much more that hasn't been made public yet. Asserting that there's no reliable evidence about collusion is buying into the Trump smokescreen strategy of obfuscation and impugning the investigators.
28
Steele was a trusted, well regarded member of the British security apparatus. Calling him a "foreign agent" is dishonest IMO.
Mr. Douthat has left out an important reason for the Republicans' current strength. And that is that more than half of our citizens either actively support a bigoted tyrant, or simply do not care enough to oppose him.
Mr. Douthat and many others analyze 2018 and 2020 as typical election cycles. They fail to take into account the profound changes in the American electorate in the past few decades, and especially since the terms of President Obama.
There are two main changes. The first is the huge rise in white nationalism. Fully forty percent of our electorate falls into this category. They see their political power wane as ethnic minorities become equal citizens. They love that Trump tells them that the KKK and neo-Nazis are some very fine people. While we once may have thought that only a small sliver of our citizens would fall into this category, we now know that they comprise nearly half of us.
The second change is that another 10 to 15 percent of us simply do not care that we have a dictator in power, one who brags about his racism, his misogyny, and his xenophobia. Taken with the first change, a majority of our citizens simply do not support what Democrats have to offer.
Where does that leave those of us who do not fall into either of these groups? Very much on our own. We have an America that a majority of our citizens now want. It is now time for those of us and our families who are able, to live our lives elsewhere. The America we knew is gone.
1
In this version of reality, destroying the climate (for humans) of the one planet we currently have is always irrelevant.
1
1. Polling is no longer reliable. It’s not like the old days when everyone had a landline.
2. The generic ballot doesn’t reflect two facts. This President’s ratings are a “success” at 42%. Democrats still have all the energy.
3. The GOP has only one accomplishment to crow about, the tax bill, and even that isn’t selling too well. Hello Harley Davidson?
4. The GOP is horribly split and is careening further to the right. Hello Farm Bill?
5. Democrats are wisely promoting moderate candidates and women candidates.
6. The Trump administration still has no idea how to dispatch the President this fall.
7. Democratic incumbent Senators in red states are the beneficiaries of truly great luck.
8. Ted Cruz can’t get over 50% in his race. Marcia Blackburn looks like a loser in Tennessee.
9. Money buys ads...that few people see anymore.
10. Democrats have outperformed in 2018 as well.
11. Donald Trump is not Silvio Berlusconi. He’s more Berlusconi’s sad cousin.
12. Tariffs, getting beat by China, stock buybacks and (now certain) failure in N Korea are not winners on the campaign trail.
13. The GOP has lost the suburbs.
I still say 50 seats and the Senate.
2
There must be some irony in Douthat telling the Democrats not to follow exactly the playbook that got Trump elected.
How many times in a single campaign speech did Trump say "Crooked Hillary"?
Unless Ross Douthat now is admitting that Trump's "Crooked Hillary" campaign was aided and abetted by the Russian interference and Trump would have lost otherwise, it is supremely ironic to read Ross telling the Democrats that they should play above the belt while the corrupt Republicans just go on about their successful modus operandi using lies to demonize Democrats.
1
I think Douthat underestimates the corruption which Mueller will reveal and the seriousness of the threat to our democracy. If Trump had not fired Comey, he might have gotten away with it. He still might but I doubt it. Trump is unhinged; he appears unstable because he is unstable. Douthat misses the point: we are at a crossroads as a nation. And it's just not Trump but the Republican Party.
1
Italy dumped Berlusconi because of his personality, scandals, and policies. and has had a declining economy since 2000. Now it has returned to populism.
Corruption is the main enemy of prosperity and democracy. We need to drain the swamp; not just joke about it.
30
True. Corruption Costs Real Money. And we all know who's gonna get stuck paying.
7
The Democrats should be putting together a “Promise to America”, like the “Contract with America” that Newt Gingrich offered the GOP in 1994. Although very wrongheaded, it worked.
Opposing Trump is not enough. Take a strong stand in the form of a campaign promise to:
— Reform our broken elections system, including a ban on gerrymandering, overturning Citizens United, opposing voter suppression, eliminating the Electoral College, etc.
— Re-commit our nation to environmental responsibility, especially rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement.
— Commit to expanding Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and CHIPS, and fund this by removing the cap on FICA taxes. Make FICA a flat tax with the same rate for all income levels, no ceiling.
— Overturn Trump’s reneging on the Nuclear Agreement with Iran, and try to salvage what can be reinstated. By all accounts, it was working to halt Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon.
Give us a reason to support the Democratic Party again, other than just to oppose the GOP and its cult of Trump. While we must oppose them, we need more on which to base our support for the Democrats.
I have been writing to many progressive Democratic organizations over the past year, with much the same plea. I have never had a response form any of them. Many other Democrats that I know feel the same way. Wake up. Dems are about to snatch another defeat from the jaws of victory.
Richard Notkin
[email protected]
1
The author underestimates the significance of the "detest Trump" element--it's considerably more significant than he and many of the commenters here believe. Predictability at this stage is just a notch above guessing--for instance, the GOP knows Americans love a war--the Bushes have shown that at least in the short run, presidents get a big boost initially, even when we're lied into the conflict so one scenario is Trump picking a battle in October (don't put it past him). In addition, what about the eventual Mueller report. Comey tossing the election to Trump four days before the vote should make people very skeptical of guess-games at this point.
1
The important thing to remember is that Democrats are not running against Trump, that will happen in 2020, but for now they are running against a very unpopular congress. They are running against The republican view of America, a Pottersville version of America, where if you don't expect much from your government you will not be disappointed.
In favor of the democrats:
History says the incumbent party gets wiped out in the midterms.
People still need healthcare, and are tired that we are the only industrialized nation in the world where Medical care is not provided by the government as a human right.
The democrats will be much more motivated to go to the polls.
The need to check the President by voting in the opposing party will be strong.
Going against the Democrats
The democrats continue to shoot themselves in the foot, especially in regards to immigration, which they cant seem to grasp is always unpopular, no matter the year, no matter the country. Immigration is a very emotional hot button topic.
Trump is very popular right now, Americans like the way he is projecting American power on the World Stage.
Democrats are putting way to much stock in guns ban, which will not sell in most of the country, who fear the Democratic urge to take away rights in a heavy handed way.
a very real blowback against biased News reporting that has gone too far, and projects an elitist view of America, from Park Ave onto middle America.
1
The best economy in years? I doubt that. Too many people are still struggling to make ends meet. There may be more jobs, but they are not paying a living wage.
But, putting that aside, I would argue there's yet another path for Democrats that Douthat ignores. That is the path of local politics, as identified with the successful Congressional campaign of Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania.
In his victory speech, Conor Lamb said, "We fought to find common ground, and we found it." He found it in jobs, education, healthcare, retirement security, and the opioid crisis. These were the issues that mattered most to the people in his district. https://youtu.be/I_ZyLppT25g https://conorlamb.com/priorities/
There were no litmus tests, just kitchen-table talks where people spilled out their fears and hopes. In the process, he drew many Trump voters into his column. Voters found in him someone they could trust—who, they believed, would work for them in Washington.
Lamb avoided the hot-button, divisive issues of the day, such as guns, Trump or immigration. By focusing instead on local concerns, he demonstrated that he was committed to solving problems, not to waging partisan or cultural warfare.
If Dems hope to retake the House, they must win some rural and suburban districts currently represented by Republicans. Yes, the high-profile issues are important, but winning the House and saving our democracy are MORE important. And a sincere commitment to local issues is the key.
7
The one simple place to begin for the Democrats is with immigration and to recognize that the country is full. With 350 million people and growing, we need to recognize that there is a limit to size - both from an environmental perspective and from an institutional perspective.
In my lifetime we have gone from a population of 125 million to 350 million. That means our votes impact is greatly diminished . We still only get 2 senators per state and have but one president. With those kind of numbers how can we ever get the ear of our elected leaders.
If climate change is an issue than too many people, its primary cause should also be an issue.
Republicans are blind on the environment and guns. Talk about the dismantling of environmental regulation and their consequences; the wholesale destruction wrought by oil rigs in sensitive areas, the blind acceptance of viewing all trees as timber; all living things as mere commodities to be profited from and the Dems might get somewhere.
likewise with guns - that is a total cave in by Republicans to the lobbying efforts of the NRA. 10,000 people a year murdered by guns, 20,000 casualties not even counting suicides by impulse with ready access to guns.
In other words show common sense as Trump does and apply common sense where Trump doesn't.
2
The country isn't "full," though. For demographic and economic reasons, immigration will remain a necessary component of American prosperity.
2
This column is filled with what Italians call "luoghi comuni," literally common places. I figure that, with Mr. Douthat's references to Berlusconi and, often, to the Vatican, Italian tropes are apt. Still, he does make sense. The problem is that, no matter how much Trump ignores the real needs of the working and lower middle classes, his corruption and kleptocracy appear to enhance his image with this often xenophobic group, as discussed in today's Eduardo Porter column in the Business section of the NYT. Again, there are Berlusconi precedents. How long will the thrill of being entertained by Mr. Apprentice last?
1
Unfortunately, American voters, including democrats (for this political cycle it may be fortunately) vote against something, not for something. Democrats won in 2006-2008 cycle because they voted against war and against economic meltdown and conservatives had nothing to vote against. Democrats had nothing to vote against in 2010 but conservatives voted against Obama supposed deficits.
This cycle democrats will vote against Trump and his corrupt governing, though expect some Trump base to show up and vote against supposed liberal hatred of Trump.
Dear Mr. Douthat: It's still the economy, stupid. Millions of "new" jobs created that pay $10 an hour with no benefits isn't exactly a "recovery" for most of us, especially those still unemployed since 2009 and considered "unemployable" because skills that worked in 2009 before we were "laid off" are not considered "obsolete" and oh, by the way, we're 45-70. Not wanted unless it's for $7.25 an hour jobs, which is my state's going rate for minimum wage. Your underlying assumptions are, essentially, full of beans, and do not reflect the day to day real life experience of a majority of Americans, most of us who are NOT even making the $55K a year "mean" annual wages that the government tells us we're making. Yeah, dudes, right. Sincerely, Early "Retired" in Milwaukee
9
"Lies, Damnable Lies and Statistics."
Mark Twain
3
I believe that one of the Democrats best hopes is wide-reaching voter registration and get out the vote drives and good old-fashioned door-knocking campaigns. I think we Dems need to go back to basics and make sure we are not leaving races uncontested, getting candidates out and out everywhere, and getting voters to the polls. I am a member of the League of Women voters and am participating in many voter drives as I believe the only way to make politics fair is to get citizens active. I think folks becoming apathetic and staying home is a great risk to democracy and will only help Trump and other wannabe demagogues. I encourage everyone who cares about our Republic to get out the vote this November by registering all voters and making sure everyone you know has a plan to get to the polls.
True, Trump may be a sign of the times, a disaffected population seeking change but, for lack of knowledge and true participation in this democracy of ours, believed the empty rhetoric (demagoguery) and took the lies and insults as a candidate's impromptu 'bravery' to show the need to oust the status quo. Trump may be an abomination, a disgrace, a corrupt beast seeking self-aggrandizement and self-enrichment...but he is 'our' monster. We the people, had we been educated properly on the facts, and the needs a society requires (in this reality as is, not as it should, or could, or ought to be), and understanding basic civics, would never have elected such an unscrupulous thug, so ignorant (by choice) and arrogant and needy, so empty of any content worth talking about. But we were hopelessly credulous, even enjoying the circus and it's clowns and it's jester major, the current ugly American in-chief, to have paid attention...until now, too late for remedy, and perhaps a bit too early for the crying. If Trump is successful in disemboweling the Judiciary (as he has already the Legislative branch), all that is left for him for a 'fait accompli' is to place a ring in our noses...and lead us to the slaughterhouse. Unless we wake up and take action, take down the current pluto-kleptocracy...whose prominent corrupter, aside from Trump, may be Scott Pruitt who, thus far, has killed E.P.A.'s mission, save Earth from it's slow but sure death by denying human-made climate changes.
4
We need a Democratic Congress that impeaches Trump, then Pence, and with a Democratic president then moves on to investigate the corruption, obstructionism, sedition and treason of the entire Republican Criminal Organization over the last ten years, at the federal and state level, beginning with Ryan, McConnell, McCarthy, and Nunes and then on down to school board president and dogcatcher. No more forgive and forget, no more reaching across the aisle, no more common ground. No more of this bipartisan nonsense that has gotten us nowhere, with neo fascists who equate compromise with capitulation, and who have made slander, lies and demonization a normal part of our political discourse. (Start by locking up that fiend Gingrich.) And while we are at it, the new Congress can proceed with dismantling the Republican propaganda networks - Fox, Clear Channel, Breitbart, Sinclair - that spew hatred and lies to mal-educated, feeble minded Americans. We are done with them, we are going to vote each and everyone of them out, and then they need to pay for their 40 years of crimes against American democracy and the American people. Commissions, investigations, subpoenas, hearings, indictments, trials, and jail for Republican criminals and traitors. All of them - each and every one of them.
November 2018. November 2020. No Republicans: none, not one.
6
Talking about corruption is a good idea. It's a VERY serious and obvious problem, and Democratic control of the Congress would help to mitigate it. Democrats can unite on this message and it requires all Democrats to win in order to make change happen.
Republicans don't govern very well, but that is usually a hard case to make since voters don't really know whether the government is doing a good job- all they know is what they are told. This time, it's pretty clear what a circus things have become.
There is no national Democratic leader. No voice that can unify the widely-varying Democratic base.
The message is obviously important and needs to be refined and simple to articulate, but without a charismatic, committed, powerful spokesman or spokeswoman to bring it all together under one movement, even the best message is easily diluted and rendered ineffective by a skilled, unscrupulous, conscienceless opposition.
Some Democrat MUST emerge to play that role, and the sooner the better. Who will it be?
Douthat may not think that recognizing and declaring a national existential crisis is good strategy, but if that's the truth of our situation it needs to be done without apology. Democrats are very good at underplaying their strengths and tripping over their desire to play nice and get along. That dithering and weakness has characterized Democrats for a long time, even when they won with Obama they pissed away their power in A Pollyanna-esque fetishization of "bi-partisanship". Where did it get them?
If the Democrats "move rightward" the game is all but over. The people are in favor of "liberal" policies, it just needs a leader to crystallize and speak for them.
1
We don't need a "national leader." All politics is local, even so-called "national" politics. It's all about which states get the money. About time the blue states start getting their fair share and the fat lazies in the south and out west in the taker states get kicked to the curb where they belong. Oh, and while we're at it, repeal the tax cuts for corporations and the fat cats at the top of the food chain. They don't need it. The economy was humming along fine under Obama BEFORE the $1.5 trillion deficit addition the Republicans gifted our descendants with. That's how the Republicans play. Tit for tat. No more Mr. "Nice" Democrats. Put women in power - you'll see what cut-throat actually means...
2
Agree with your sentiments, but we have a federal government, so we need national leaders. Nothing you want to happen will unless Democrats win the Congress (local/state elections) AND the presidency (national leader required).
I'm sorry, but the notion that the right strategy for the Democrats "is to focus on Trumpian corruption, the sleazy, sordid, self-dealing side of his administration and the obvious reluctance of congressional Republicans to execute more than a cursory sort of oversight" is folly. With the "fourth estate" (the media) screaming at voters about all things Trump all the time, it's become just noise - and you don't win hearts and minds with noise. You win with principled positions that inspire and motivate voters to turn out and elect representatives from your party. The Democrats have to embrace clear and powerful policy positions and break through the noise to convince voters that they indeed know a better way.
6
@ERP: "At least he doesn't express contempt for them. And that may well transfer to any candidate who is perceived to represent them."
One of my fantasies is that one day trump will be caught on some "hot mike" (much like the Access Hollywood tape) saying what for him would be a rare truth: that he really could not care less about the on-the-ground plight of much of his devoted base/ His interest in them is strictly transactional, in the narcissist grifter MO: I'll pretend to care about the "kitchen sink" issues like jobs and you continue to adore me and vote for what has now become the party of trump. Somewhere along the way in the past year I read that trump admitted that, while on the campaign trail, when he sensed his "audience" was getting bored or listless, he would crank up the "build a wall" rhetoric and they would come roaring back. You hear echoes of this even now when he holds his rallies before a select "audience", using the hot button talking points that won him the electoral college.
Mr. Douthat conveniently omits the fact that the 2016 presidential election was a squeaker and that millions sat out the election, on both sides. Repubs aren't as securely strapped into their seats as he would make out. Getting out the vote is key. And maybe, Mr. Douthat, you could have a follow up column about the REAL employment landscape. Race to the bottom task rabbit jobs. What about that?
1
Trump's imploding presidency is my hope for a return to real progressive policies. We have been growing more and more conservative since 1968. About every 50 years our political pendulum swings wildly back the other way and starts it's gradual movement back to the center and beyond.
Our 50 years of conservative destruction, from Nixon to Trump, should be ending and it will be time for another run of progressive government like we had under FDR.
If Trump and the conservatives implode in broad daylight so the American people can see what kind of corrupt politics they have been pushing onto us all these years this could be the time for progressives to return to power.
It seems that there is the group that reads, pays attention to detail and sees all the corruption, bribes, lies that is going on in Mr. Trump's administration. Then there Mr. Trump's racist, evangelical, extreme supporters who don't care if he lies because he supports white supremacy.
There is a large group, IMO, in th middle that just think the GOP and the DEMS are the same, both corrupt, both lying. This group does not pay attention to detail, they just remember some of the misinformation spread by Mr. Trump, GIuliani and Trump's surrogates and they mix the misinformation with the facts being reported and perceive the DEMS as fanatical and overly critical of Mr. Trump's regime.
What I think is needed for legislators to take a stand, to make sweeping speeches in the Senate and the House specifically focusing on the corruption and falsehoods and the lack of ethics of this administration. There is not enough of an outcry from incumbent legislators.
Finally, the DEMs have issues, the great thing about the party its diversity, is its achilles heel, because there are too many specific sectors saying, me, me, me and the Bernie Sanders of the world are bad for the party because he is divisive.
There are big issues the DEMs could rally around, the environment, immigration and healthcare. They need to take a stand on these issues and then call out the Trump obfuscaters and liars.
38
Given American political norms through the decades, it is easy to see why some saw Bernie's candidacy as "divisive." But in part that is the consequences of the GOP and Dems traditionally being part of the same bourgeois consensus in America. Instead of addressing the obvious class differentials and rapidly growing economic inequities in this country -- which at bottom contribute to prejudices and run across ethnic, gender and race lines -- Dems since Bill C. have chosen to highlight "identity politics" while refusing to do much to mitigate the Reagan and post-Reagan notion that all gov't, save for the police and the military, is bad and wasteful and corrupt while all private, self interest- seeking, no matter how exploitative and unethical, is good for all. Plutocrats and even kleptocrats Dems seem (at least silently) willing to accept as our all-American saviors. Getting money and lobbying out of our political processes would be the first step in the right direction.
12
What I think is needed for legislators to take a stand, to make sweeping speeches in the Senate and the House specifically focusing on the corruption and falsehoods and the lack of ethics of the past administration. PS, the Obama/Hillary years are OVER!
3
Talk about "identity politics" is nonsense, nonsense fomented by the right-wing propaganda machine and bought into by too many people who do not think things through. Is being a stand for equal rights for ALL people identity politics? If you look at a problem and see that, for example, black Americans are for the most part predominantly at the bottom of the income scale, that they are underrepresented in higher education, both as students and as professors, that their faces are mostly missing among the members of Congress and top executives, is there not a reason to wonder why that is so and to be a stand for that segment of the population to have the same rights and opportunities as white Americans? It may be true that raising incomes for ALL Americans will benefit the black segment of the population, too, but it will not resolve the problems having to do with lack of opportunity and representation. Similar concerns have to do with women. The gay members of our population have also faced certain kinds of discrimination, including the fact that they were deemed not worthy of being of a committed life together with the person they loved. Trans people faced even being denied the right to use the bathroom that matched their identity, all buttressed with specious arguments. It is not so-called "identity politics" to want to make sure that ALL Americans are able to lead lives in which discrimination and lack of opportunity are not determining what happens to them.
People know all about the character of the President, so they've either made up their minds that character is a decisive factor or they haven't. Either 3,000+ lies, refusal to release tax returns, revolving door of top advisers, ties to Russia and payoffs to mistresses are OK or they aren't.
But he's definitely vulnerable on the issues:
1. Over 4 million more without health insurance since 2016, with no plan to reverse a projection of up to 13 million over 10 years.
2. Deficits should be going down in a boom, not up. Debt trajectory (projected additions over 10 years) up 35% per CBO, or $28,500 per household vs. the Obama baseline that Trump inherited.
3. Real wage growth is lower than the last few years under Obama, due to higher inflation.
4. Gas price increases eating up the meager benefits of the tax cut for the bottom half.
Democrats should remind people that at pre-Reagan levels of inequality, the bottom 80% of families would be getting $11,000 more per year in income. Instead, the 1% are getting that money, over $1 trillion/year.
Democrats are willing to tax the 1% to the extent necessary to shift that back to the bottom 80%, in the form of paid-for college and healthcare subsidies sufficient to cover the remaining 30 million uninsured.
1
Maybe the strategy is to not mention his name and concentrate on local issues and turnout. He hates when it isn't about him.
Full left populist is clearly what is needed, but before that can happen in the general elections, it needs to happen in the Democratic party itself, especially at the top levels, where they are holding on to their "center" corporate friendly, politics with all their strength. The center of our country shifted long ago, but their center hasn't. Many of these people would happily be moderate Republicans, if that could get them elected. Instead, they undermine any progressive movement on the left.
Those who must be convinced, if Democrats are to win, are those who really hated Hillary.
Those who liked her all voted for her. Those willing to hold their noses all voted for her. How did that turn out?
So now they need those who hated Her. Why did they hate Her? Face it, it was not because she was just like Bernie. It was because she was not like Bernie.
It was the Wall Street, the big money interests, the greed, and the constant legal shenanigans she pulled.
Don't do it again. That's all it would take. But no, they insist on doing it again.
3
As I see it, the only "dilemma" the Democrats face in November is their propensity to overthink things.
In November, the only thing that matters is to flip one of the chambers of Congress to Democrat. That is the only thing that matters.
And even with that, all it will do is give Democrats and the left a small slice of power. An ability to slow the Republican/Trump destruction of the environment, exacerbation of the yawning wealth gap, dismantling of decades of peacetime alliances, etc. etc.
So how about we start with that on the left? Instead of arguing about who is more or less "progressive," who is more or less "establishment," how about we wait until we have some real power? You know, until there is something worth arguing over.
1
The Republicans could not ask to be in a better position then they are now seeing. The country is experiencing a robust economy and people are feeling confident in ways that had not occurred during previous administrations. They are spending freely and not worrying about having money in their pockets. They are feeling positive once again about the US.
Unless there is some unforeseen downturn in our country which is unlikely to occur, the Republicans are on fairly solid ground. The people are happy and seeing America once again as a prosperous nation. The make America great again is being uttered by people who once had little hope in their futures. As the saying goes, if it is not broken do not fix it. They are singing happy days are here again and have a lot of celebrate about.
3
Every time Trump needed a push from his base, he trotted out the "crooked Hillary" or "Obama spied on me" spiel and got the needed boost.
If the 'Trump is beyond awful and a crook to boot' message gets the democratic base out to vote, it will have worked.
Listening to Chuck Schumer’s weak-kneed professorial condemnations of the latest Trump outrage is too much.
We need people to actually stand up and call out Trump and his entire administration for what they are: liars, cheaters, grifters, and inept administrators, backing up the claims with the many available examples and how they and they’re “policies” are destroying our country: Pruitt, Zinke, Carson, Price, Sanders, Spicer, Guiliani, Kelly, Mnuchin, and any of the Trumps.
The header photo for this article is Awesome.
It's a personification, for sure.
Our culture is in decline. We are not an educated people. Americans grew to expect a good life without the effort of educating themselves. Every citizen's right to a comfortable life without much effort fuels Noam Chomsky's "willful ignorance." If citizens don't have everything they want, it's the fault of the poor, the fault of immigrants—not the fault of the robber barons.
I am amazed that anyone feels economically secure on this day after the repeal of Dodd Frank, once again letting the banks loose to repeat their 2008 crash of unregulated greed. We live in an era of wild economic greed, of hoarding of world wealth by oligarchs who seem to live just to manipulate every last extant penny into their pile. We have unprecedented near-trillionaires hoarding immorally insane caches of lucre.
This idea that a "strong man" can simply bully Marxist forces by bellowing at them, rather than to approach planetary demise with education—this simplistic idea creeps worldwide right now. I would encourage the Democrats, win or lose, to try to educate the voting population. Charles Dickens' words come to mind—
"This boy is Ignorance.This girl is Want. Beware them both,
and all of their degree, but most of all beware this boy,
for on his brow I see that written which is Doom. "
1
Yes, the corruption. Because that is what is happening, and it is what leads to the downgrading or loss of democracy and human rights.
The Democratic party, and the mainstream media for that matter, needs to focus on the effects of the policies and positions of the new Republican party, which will continue to line the pockets of the wealthy with handouts and continue to transfer monetary and social assistance from those who already have to those who do not have. This is inhumane and immoral.
The Democratic party should focus on the imbalance of power (leading eventually to loss of democracy) the installation of a corrupt and bigoted judiciary by this administration will cause. If extremists control the presidency, the house, the senate as well as the judicial branch, there will be utterly no protection for those who cannot pay to play.
2
The picture that headlines this article reminds me of "New Coke"....... which was an unmitigated disaster for the Coca Cola Company. Labeling the DNC as "New Dems" is not going to change the fundamental problems that plague the DNC. After the last election debacle, it was very evident that the leaders of the party had their chosen few that they would support despite what the people wanted. Both parties are run by the rich, for the rich, and we are just supposed to lick our lips and like it.
1
It is painfully telling to see that sign on stage .... "New Dems" .... which was Bill Clinton's embrace-Republicans-and-Wall-Street model.
That model lost the national election to Donald Trump in 2016.
Time for Democrats from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party to lead, FDR style.
While the presidency of Donald Trump is a disaster and threat to the well-being of America and Americans on so many levels it also true that the basic agenda items considered in Congress and the Senate would have been on the table no matter who a Republican President may have been with the same results of further enriching the wealthy while pursuing policies that really do decrease the quality of life for everyone else. Trump brings some undesirable characteristics to the White House that has seriously hurt this country. But before Trump, the Republican party has, for a much longer period of time, brought undesirable characteristics to both state and federal legislative bodies.
1
As an politically progressive liberal of the center, I see the problem of the Democrats in the too many leftist radicals in their midst. It does not help them either to drag in their wake the politically correct, militant vegans and feminists, pro-cannabis lobbies, opponents of the 2nd Amendment, and loud-mouthed proponents of denaturation of the language by the use of "his or her" (but not of "his or her or its").
2
Expectations relative to observations. I think that (combined with partisanship) is really why the Dems "Trump is a bad guy" approach has somewhat failed. If Romney were President, charges of bigotry misogyny would likely be more impactful. But when candidate Trump more or less admits that he grabs women by the genitals or any of the other outlandish things he says/ does, it does not make it OK. But it does insulate us a bit from the shock of such news.
To me, the more dangerous turn in politics is epitomized what is going on in GA with the Dem nomination of Stacey Adams. The issue is not that a Dem is trying to win the deep South. That part reminds me of Bill Clinton whose time as Gov in AR proved to be a stepping stone to the White House. But Bill Clinton was the last Dem to win 1000 counties and nearly tie the white vote. Even Obama talked "not of a red America or blue America but rather a United States of America". Instead, Adams (who is black) has openly eschewed going after the white vote and instead is relying on a historic turnout of blacks and other minorities.
On its face, such voter participation is a good thing. But 2016 was the first election when minorities became a majority of Dem primary voters. Increasingly, Repubs are becoming the party of white voters and Dems are becoming the party of minorities. Does anyone really win such an election ? Such a schism caused our bloodiest war. Shouldn't we learn history's lesson ?
2
Corporate tax cuts are what have caused a significant percent of stock market rises. It was a clever plan by Trump et al: lower the corporate tax rate, improve earnings, and hence stock prices. And how are these tax cuts paid for? The deficit higher, redistributed to other taxpayers? It's a sugar high.
But the biggest challenge the Democrats face is to make the case against Trump and Trumpism. The "decency" argument might be swaying some voters already - look at his still relatively low approval numbers - but it is not going to serve as the knockout punch, probably.
The Dems have to go on offense. Show an ad with a polluted stream and have the caption, "Make America Great Again." Show a picture of cabinet members smiling while headlines about their acts of corruption appear, and the big question is flashed on the screen: "Drain the Swamp?" Show the president in a series of lies through quotes and say "Restore honor and integrity to the White House, Mr. President."
If, in fact, Trumpism is truly as bad as we think, shouldn't we be able to create an effective, cutting, and even decimating counter-attack? There should be Democratic consultants working on this all the time. Also, watch Steve Schmitt, who is becoming one of the most forceful Trump critics, to use his pointed and cogent arguments about the destructivenes of this president as a campaign theme.
3
Is 4% unemployment really all that different from 5%, which is where it stood at the end of the Obama years? What's really important (in election terms) is where those new jobs are turning up. Specifically, how are things going in the industrial Midwest? The four states to keep on eye on are Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin- precisely those four states that gave Trump his election victory because the Democrats ignored them in 2016. Never mind the national polls; can someone do some polling in those four states and enlighten us as to whether the 1% drop in the unemployment rate is significantly affecting the Trump voters there?
2
The biggest problem with attempting to denigrate Donald Trump as strategy is that every voter remotely likely to support Mr. Trump and his Republican party candidates has been numbified by constant critique and accusations day after day, week after week, month after month and has become immune. After the unprecedented barrage, he has not been charged, indicted or convicted of anything. Quite the contrary, in spite of the doom and gloom predicted of Mr. Trump, as you state, his success with the economy, the North Korea debacle, his tax cut, his choice of judiciary nominees, his stance on guns, his stance on Israel, etc overshadow and create the sharp partisan fissure when compared to the daily whipping he receives in the media. More of the same hysteria is not likely to help Democrats this fall, it is likely to fan animosity. A sharp move to the left aka Mr. Sanders will frighten enough folks and out weigh the gains that might be had by exciting others. I beleive the way forward for democrats (and republicans) is to do the one thing that no one is willing to do and which the American people would applaud and embrace. Move to the center and mean it. Be willing to work across the aisle and compromise. Turn the clock back to when the good of the country and its citizens came before personal and party animosity. aka Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.
4
Mr. Douthat is right that Democrats shouldn't run against Trump. After all, he isn't on the ballot. The Republican Congress's ignoring administration corruption, including wasting our taxpayer money on personal frivolities and endangering national security, is an issue that should be raised. Candidates for U.S. Representative and U.S. Senate have plenty of fodder against the Republican-led Congress if they frame the issues correctly. With respect to jobs, the issue is not quantity of jobs but quality. Too many jobs come with abusive working conditions and don't pay a living wage. And even though the Affordable Care Act was not repealed, it was weakened, such that premiums are increasing and people are again purchasing insurance policies that don't really cover anything. And Republicans promising to rubber stamp anything that Trump wants, thereby erasing checks and balances, should be vigorously opposed.
91
Well said. My Congressman has problems that can be used against him. Ducking out on town halls, taking massive farm subsidies, and voting against the interest of our area are being emphasized by the opposition. Candidates need to prove they know the community and will work for voters.
12
It's really not that simple ... for 2 [being succinct and focused here] reasons:
a) Most sitting Rep. Congresspeople and local officials HAVE "thrown their lot in" - lock stock & barrel - with DJT, and that's probably even more true for this year's crowd of wannabe-electeds.
b) it's often a question of getting YOUR SUPPORTERS to turn out ... and I think 2016 should have you and others taking your blinders off. "Lock her up" makes for a better rally and TV coverage than "We need a more aggressive approach to opioid addiction."
That is, nominally, the women's march and the anti-guns march were about issues, but if you look and listen, both of them were about the failures & foibles of the Republican party - particularly, its deity! It seems likely that the women would not even have marched if someone like Jeb Bush or Kasich had won the Presidency.
5
That's a bit simplistic. True, Trump isn't on the ballot, but Republican legislators who were at least complicit, or even brazenly supportive, in his lying and corruption, are on the ballot.
It's important to frame the narrative properly - to expose the corruption, the blatant dishonesty, the self-serving policies (like the tax cut scam) that hurt the middle class and the poor, and to make it clear that it's not just Trump. Although his lying and corruption are the most visible and egregious, he's just the tip of the iceberg
6
In Mr. Douthat's mind "left-populism is akin to gamble on socialism?
Oh dear, Angela Merkel and Theresa May must be really big, bad socialist, despite the fact that they are center right politicians, leading countries with universal healthcare, free higher education, most job security because of strong unions, etc., etc.
They and other advanced leaders do have a social conscience to take care of the least fortunate among them.
If you call that "socialism", so be it, Mr. Douthat, and it would be dandy if that oh-so-feared socialism would take a foot hold in the supposed greatest nation of the world.
14
Looking back on what I thought in 2016 before and after the election and where we are now, I realize how unpredictable our evolving politics are. The one sensible thing I thought then, and think now, is that Democrats will have to try various strategies and see what works. That kind of experimentation will have to continue through the mid-terms.
That said, there is one thing that Democrats must do: turn out the vote. "Messaging" will go only so far, and the idea that if Democrats, at a macro level, hit on the right message, they will turn out the vote is something I'm skeptical about. Connor Lamb tailored his message for his district and was aided by energized union voters. His message and strategy are not portable to, say, competitive California districts. What is takes to turn out the vote may vary from district to district. And whatever that is is what has to be done.
15
Douhat's intimation that all is rosy " in a world with 4 percent unemployment, the promise of a guaranteed job and government health insurance" is absolutely ridiculous.
Kids in the U.S. experience higher poverty rates than most developed nations. Only Greece, Mexico, Israel and Turkey have higher child poverty rates than the U.S.
One kid in 5 lives in poverty compared to 1 in 8 adults. That’s 15.5 million impoverished kids in the U.S. — U.S. Census Bureau
Twenty-four states have poverty rates higher than the national average of 14.8%. The majority of the nation’s poor live in the South.
Whether it's a broken water heater, an unexpected medical bill or a car wreck, emergencies happen to everyone. But,
according to Bankrate's latest financial security index survey, only 39 percent of American households would be able to cover a $1,000 setback using their savings.
Only 35 percent of all adults in the U.S. have only several hundred dollars in their savings accounts and 34 percent have zero.
Americans' outstanding credit-card debt hit a record last November. The Federal Reserve reported that credit card debt increased by $11.2 billion to $1.023 trillion.
Many of our fellow citizens are desperate and suffering. The Democrats need to mount a campaign with proposals that will actually help our country and its people.
Bernie Sanders understood this and the Democratic elite trashed him.
We badly need a true populism, and it may be emerging in the young and on the left.
11
The headlines: Trump yelled; he misspelled; he...he...! What the press does not emphasize: The results of his actions; the degrading environment; the growing power of the banks; the death of education, the destruction of common lives. Come on, Mr. Douthat...talk about those, the strengthening of China, the Russian reassertion of power........ all enabled and promoted by Trump. And you enable him by faint words!
12
Sorry, I don't see any dilemma here.
Democrats have only one choice: to remain sane and offer the electorate a sensible agenda.
As for Trump, there is no way to win with a narcissist. You just have to let them blow themselves up -- which we are continually witnessing.
7
The fault in the strategy coming out of the national party is simple - they are hawking some nonsense called a better deal. People are winning across the country on a much simpler message - Trump is a corrupt authoritarian who lies about everything. The cabinet is packed with equally corrupt oligarchs who are only out for themselves. The tax cut only benefited the rich. They are taking away your healthcare. They want to take away your Social Security. They value guns over children. And the only solution is to get the Republicans out of office. And they are winning. Every day. Sorry Ross, your Republican Party is in deep deep trouble.
5
The Democrats can never have a convincing economic argument when their positions remain confiscatory and anti-business. Their base may love the Sanders socialist line and the promise of free everything, but I suspect the majority of Americans still believe in personal responsibility and achievement, and will continue to reject the victim culture propounded by the left.
8
Deficits, deficits and deficits caused by GOP policies. That should also be part of Democratic message. Overheated economy caused by unnecessary tax cuts is leading us to inevitable and self-inflicted recession.
66
It's hard to run against deficits when some are advocating for single payer health care (maybe stop that?) Also, running against tax cuts is a bad idea. Even real conservatives don't do that!
It's always "weird" when someone on one side of the offense offers to help folks on the other side "do better" come election season.
Here, too, although I DO respect Mr. Douthat and think he avoided many obvious pitfalls.
But there's his premise that - while sounding reasonable - can be excoriated ... and maybe will prove decisive.
That is - he's smug/optimistic about Republicans running as "stand patters."
If you REALLY asked "how ya doin'?" to even the likely voters - as apart from the folks who've pretty much dropped out ... or need to spend 100% of their energies surviving - you probably would NOT get as many "JUST FINE" responses as Mr. D. suggests. Of course, TIMES readers skew in that direction, but ... most voters are not NYT readers.
Add to them the gazillion "soccer moms"/suburbanites who WOULD like better environmental quality ... more than "less regulation," folks angry about gun violence and who know which party is most responsible, trying to make health care (EVEN MORE) unaffordable, punting on drug regulation ...
it's a long list, ... and it boils down to there being PLENTY for Dems to campaign on - apart from Trump's "demagoguery" and/or lunacy.
CAMPAIGN FOR these things ... And what Mr. D. dismisses as "populism" DOES matter - and not just to ultra-liberals. More and more people GET that Aetna/CVS and similar funnel trillions to their shareholders ... at the expense of the rest of us. Higher ed is getting more nec. & less affordable. WE can do better!
2
well, what is it? the best economy in 10 (GWB)? 15(GWB)? or 20 (clinton)?
how hard is it to say we are better of than in 10 years ago? one year into the great recession. 15 years ago bush was doing his best to ruin the clinton economy and we were fighting 2 wars on credit. the insecurity was starting and palpable. but? ahhhhh, 20 years ago, still safe and warm in the clinton economy. we had no idea how bad the republicans were going to make things.i for one do not feel that we are anywhere close to a clinton economy. all boats were floated in that world..... now? the numbers look good from 30,000 feet but on the ground we have huge inequality, desperation and stagnation and our feckless republicans are not done hurting the average guy.
2
Self limiting ??? Trump and Grifting HAS no limits, never has, never will. That's the entire point of his Campaign AND Regime. A lifelong Conman has finally met the perfect " Job "..... Maximizing corruption, the entire Trump Crime Family raking in piles of illicit Cash. Trump International Money Laundering, the REAL Family Business. The rubes love their
" Godfather ". They love playing the part of extras, makes them feel special. Seriously.
12
Forbes magazine estimated that Trump's net worth dropped by an estimated 40% as he was running for, and eventually won the presidency. That's sort of what happens when a business figure is vilified in the press 24/7 for more than 2 consecutive years. This was foreseeable, even by someone as stunted as the president. Boosting his easily bruised ego, however, is more critical to what motivates him than financial greed. While your argument no doubt resonates with the voter who is open to every criticism of the president, swing voters are far less likely to be receptive to it, or to change their loyalties come 2020.
If only Democrats hadn't sold out to the free traders (a code word for easy access to labor camps in third world countries) then none of this would have ever happened and well over 15 million high paying jobs would still be here When Bill Clinton signed NAFTA in 1993 and then lobbied to have Communist China gain entry into the World Trade Organization in 1999 he sealed the deals for the destruction of more American jobs than the Great Depression (using absolute numbers). Thousands of communities were destroyed in addition to all those jobs being sent out of the country. Bill Clinton was the most Republican president we ever had but he claimed he was a Democrat. He was fundamentally anti-labor in every action that he took.
9
What free traders?
NFTA will not be changed in a significant way, China will not be forced to much change either. TPP was a very good agreement and would create jobs in US.
Our problems are not caused by trade agreements in any significant way, this is another deflection by plutocracy (leser evil) to avoid more structural changes in our country. What are the results of corporated tax cuts? Mostly stock buying programs, profits for capital holders and overheated stock market that will go crushing down next year at the latest.
2
And fundamentally, that is the underlying reason why his wife lost to Trump.
1
Kudos to the "smarter path"! Democrats running for office in the fall need to "keep it simple": if the impotent -- stuck in Trump's pocket -- congress isn't performing its constitutional role (co-equal branch), get to the polls, throw the bums out!
5
You know we're in trouble when conservatives start offering advice to liberals on how to win back decent, moral government.
Don't blame Democrats, Hillary or Bernie for the monsters created by the willfully ignorant. If Douthat, Brooks, Stephens want to end this nightmare they should declare they will personally drive Democrats to the polls, donate money to the DNC and pledge to" sacrifice their lives, fortune and honor" to rid us of these criminals
20
This should be called "Ross Douthat's fantasy about the Democrats' dilemma."
He is oblivious to the legitimate rage piling up day by day against the Trump horrors.
This is a crime wave, not a presidency.
Ross, nor anyone else, can wish it away with a propagandist's fancy words.
10
I thought that was precisely the point that Douthat, with whom I rarely agree, was making. Democrats would make real gains by focusing on the criminal activities of the crime syndicate in the White House and the way that the Republican Congress has enabled this.
2
Spin this any way you want - the Dems are definitely going to take over the House. I'm not sure if it will be by 30 seats or 120, but they are going to crush the GOP.
We may take the Senate, too. People are furious, frightened and want some checks on this tiny little man who thinks that he is a dictator.
2
The corruption in the Trump Administration is beyond belief. Mitch McConnell is as awful as Trump. OK, the best way to counter this gruesome twosome is with a Democratic congress.
The problem is the personas of Pelosi and Schumer. They are tainted, period. They are what the Dems have to overcome. If they can't beat the Republicans in 2018 when will they ever!
2
Changing any minds within the Trump electorate ... whether by appealing to intellect or moral outrage ... is a fool's errand. Dems will need to activate their entire electorate, and that won't happen if they tilt to the center. Trump's contempt for lawful, working, deliberative democracy must be the animating core of their electoral message. This way they an wrap themselves up in the American flag and make the Trump GOP look like the alien renegades that they are.
5
You know there's evil in play when a right wing GOP columnist starts telling the Democrats how to win an election.
2
The author forgets another factor that may help to explain the recent Trump recovery. A major factor in the 2016 result was the fact that Trump was the only candidate who at least pretended to sympathize with the plight of working people between the coasts. Since then, the relentless barrage of negativity directed by Progressives toward them has undoubtedly amplified their loathing for the coastal elites who still openly despise them. (You don't win support by continually telling voters that you think they are racist, xenophobic, misogynistic, stupid, etc etc.)
So they may have come to dislike Trump, but they may loathe their Progressive abusers even more. At least he doesn't express contempt for them. And that may well transfer to any candidate who is perceived to represent them.
By diligently getting out the vote, the Left may squeak through in this election. But they are never going to have a comfortable hold on power as long as they persist with their current attitudes.
5
I am a “coastal elite,” and after reading and hearing all the derogatory comments made about fellow Americans, I’ve also grown to loathe progressives. There are many concerning issues with the current administration, which I guess give the Democrats a platform of being the lesser evil? That’s not compelling.
2
You know your country, and political system, is in trouble when you start to equate it to Italy. A nation which has new governments as often as the year changes. Fortunately, our constitution limits elections to two, four and six year cycles, for the House, president and Senate. But, like Italy, we have corrupt parties, politicians, flow of legal and illegal money, and a very non-engaged electorate.
The Democrats play book better be on kitchen table issues, and better stay away from the 2016 presidential election, and what Trump is doing. They don't, they extend this mess to 2020 and beyond.
4
As long as swing voters want to sacrifice their own economic interests in the name of policing what lies between womens' and LGBT people's legs, there is no point in trying to move the needle on them. The only possible answer for Democrats is to give the base a reason to show up for them.
6
It is high time for conservativos to be called trumpites. Conservative valúes have nothing to do with these kind of unconditional supporters.
5
There was a bumper sticker that was popular around the time of the second Iraq invasion that read "If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." I'd like to amend that to read "If you're not paying attention, you deserve what's coming.". It's not just the "economy, stupid" that we have to be aware of, it's the "stupid, stupid" that's gonna bring down our democracy.
2
First, the biggest grift of the past half-century was that of the progressives saying that the US economy was doomed to grow at 2% or less annually - and the only equitable way to deal with this impending privation was to empower same said progressives to redistribute stuff...
With that, think of both the GOP and Dems as hedge-funds, with the same 2 and 20 fee structure...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/two_and_twenty.asp
The Dems were guaranteeing only two things...
1. They'd take their 2% fee
2. Rather than working for any growth, they'd tend to more important things - like being funny at the WHCD
The GOP said - more or less - let's double down on red...
Last bus home from the casino is at 3 AM - but we're suddenly feeling lucky today...
PS
Hey progressives, look at your former figurehead - does he look and act more like a former president, or a current hedge-fund manager...
PPS
Hey Democrats, keep nominating decent moderates…At some point, the progressives will return to the party of their true colors…Those folks have been trying for – like forever – to get to 5% and the attendant matching federal funds…
4
If the employment picture is so good, why aren't wages rising?
Well, it's a sort of chicken and egg situation. People do not have enough money to buy stuff. We have just have 2 studies that showed if the typical American family had a real emergency & had to come up with some money, they couldn't do it. One said about half the people couldn't come up with $400 & the other that 2/3rds couldn't find $1,000.
Now businesses are not going to produce stuff people can't buy. So they have to keep prices low, & they can't pay workers well & still keep the big profits they have become used to. If wages we higher, people would have the money to buy stuff, but that's the chicken bit.
BUT we have a way to break out of this circle. Its called the federal government. It can create as much money as it needs out of thin air. It can then get the money to the people who need it & will spend it by simply doing stuff that needs to be done, e.g. fixing roads and bridges, helping with education, research of all kinds, a new power grid, efficient transportation, etc., etc., etc. Thus we can break the circle & improve our lives at the same time.
What about inflation? Prices are proportional to the amount of money in the economy (times its velocity), but INVERSELY proportional to the dollar value of the stuff we can produce. So if the money is spent doing good things, it will produce enough stuff to soak up the money.
Dems need to find their way to the middle on most issues, gently move Chuck and Nancy to the side and beat like heck on Trump's very swampy administration.
The question is: do they have anyone out there who can ignite the imagination of their base and who is also not an angry old man from Vermont.
1
Ross is clueless as to the depths of despair and hopelessness that are as real as they were and probably worse and helped make Trump President in the first place.
If he thinks that more people having crummier- paying-better-than- nothing jobs, 3 million opioid addicts and the rollback of consumer protection regulations, and twice-a-month school shootings are causing a new “Morning in America”optimism—he’s out of touch.
Whether or not people are merely reviled by the creepiest, stupidest and most mis-informed spouter of gibberish of all time or not, and therefore, motivated to vote in November— their problems are worse, not better.
1
Nice try Ross. This isn't the "age of Trump". Yours is the party of Trump. Deal with it. You can't wash the stink off that easily.
9
"Why gamble on socialism"? If Ross thought that would win the election he would bring his megaphone out for socialism? Which is more obscene, paying off a porn star during a campaign, or calling for the end to capitalism to get elected?
Just as with porn star stories, this administration is so riddled with graft that the public appears not to care, at least so far. Keeping track requires its own database. The levels of corruption are astonishing: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trump-administrations-no-goo... (posted 1 March 2018). The conclusion, already outdated, from that story:
"Of course, we are still only scratching the surface of administration scandals. This is a president, after all, whose communications director quit on Wednesday after admitting to lying (but insists her resignation was unrelated); whose senior staff included an alleged wife-beater; whose former national security adviser and deputy campaign manager have pleaded guilty to felonies; whose onetime campaign chairman faces 27 criminal charges, including conspiracy against the United States; whose attorney paid off a porn star; and whose son mixed family and government business on a trip to India. Given the ethical direction set by this president, it’s a wonder that his Cabinet officers aren’t stealing spoons from their official dining rooms. Come to think of it, maybe someone should look into that."
1
Ross, "to essentially normalize him, to treat him “as an ordinary opponent” rather than an existential threat, to focus on issues rather than character debates" is to normalize the insane Roman Emperors, to accept the single-party Vichy regime installed by the Nazi Empire as the recognized government in France during the Second World War of Empires (which, BTW, the U.S. did first), and to quietly accept that the "Washington Post's" brave 21st century mast-head slogan "Democracy Dies in Darkness" is replacing our original 'American Dream' --- not the self-serving one of personal wealth, but the one that Pat would have bravely shouted-out as his rallying cry, if Tom had taken the Paine to edit the cry, "Give Me Liberty from Empire, or Give Me Death"
Hopefully, the "Times" might complete and punctuate the "Post's" slogan on our endangered democracy by simply up-dating their 19th century slogan of "All the News That's Fit to Print" to a now essential, "Democracy Ends Under Empire".
2
It is all about the US Democracy and the institutions that make this country what it is. It has become quite obvious that:
1. The Republican Congress cannot get anything done, even their pet projects
2. The Congress does not know how to govern because it is entangled in a senseless aim to undo President Obama's constructive work rather than governing the country
3. Donald Trump will knock down any institution to gain personal benefits. The institutions are in danger
4. Democrats can actually show their accomplishments although the Republicans have been chiseling away at them
So, "It's the democracy stupid!"
1
Since Donald Trump is not the governing ppoliticwl leader of the Democratic Party he not their key political problem. Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are the Democratic Party leader losers.
Running against Donald Trump's corrupt moral depravity by suggesting policy alternatives did not work for his 16 Republican primary opponents nor his general election foe Hilllary Clinton.
The Republican Party dilemma is wrestling their party back from Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin's primary ignorant immature incompetent inexperienced intemperate and insecure puppet
Donald Trump. And with 57%, 59% and 58 % of white voters going Republican white McCain / Palin, Romney / Ryan and Trump / Pence the aging and shrinking white majority is the other Republican demographic base danger.
Recently, I have noticed the number of conservative / republican thinkers / writers writing columns extolling the problems within the democratic party ...
... And purposely NOT commenting on the obvious calamities within their own party.
Interesting ... No ??? ...
3
It is always amazing to watch my party which can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with the predictability of Daffy Duck in an old cartoon.
The only way to defeat Trump is to destroy him and every one of his supporters. This needs to be a scorched earth campaign. It isn't pretty. It takes no prisoners. It is not about issues because there are no issues. You can't defeat Hitler on "the Jewish question" because it doesn't matter how racism poles, subtle, dog-whistle racism wins.
My party is working to alienate the male vote as quickly as it can. Let me know how that works out.
My party is standing on its soapbox to embrace undocumented immigrants...because you know, that always wins at the polls.
My party wants to make a stand for the rights of transgender folks to use the bathroom of their choice, an issue which impacts a statistically nonexistent voting population, but offends a statistically high number of voters.
Meanwhile, mass shooting after mass shooting. Environmental disastrous policies put in place. Corruption. Graft. Russian interference with our elections. Lies, and, oh yeah, a booming economy.
This is how Democracy dies.
3
The Democratic platform should include:
* Banning assault weapons
* Drain the swamp (for real) / how corrupt DC is.
* Never mention the guy in the White House
Don't talk about:
* What bathroom you use
* Abortion
* The guy in the White House
How is that for a start?
4
I think it’s for the Democratic Party to focus on young non white voters both in rural and urban areas. The liberal whites who abandoned their principles, morals and American values to go along with Donald Trump’s racist rants and stupid promises, can vote for republican right wing agenda again. Donald Trump’s promised fool’s paradise will never materialise in the USA.
To anyone out there who thinks that Douthat actually has the best interests of dems at heart: I have a famous bridge to sell you: very cheap.
6
Trump's record speaks for itself. The cronies in his cabinet and his other appointments seek to repeal all rules of the road. From rules that keep our water safe to drink and our air clean enough to breath to the repeal of bank regulations implemented to avoid another 2008 monetary crash. Couple this with the decimation of the consumer agency created to protect against the abuses of a Wells Fargo bank, the exploitation of the public lands, his love affair with Putin, and the ongoing saga of the Stormy Daniels affair, the Dems have enough material to bring down Trump.
Though I agree with many points in this commentary, I disagree that Clinton's strategy in 2016 was to illustrate how awful a commander-in-chief Trump would make. Watching the debates, I cringed at Trump's character attacks on Clinton, while she doggedly attempted to stick to discussions of policy. No one could possibly conclude that Trump had more knowledge, experience, or vision than Clinton. Once she made this clear, she needed to address his character attacks and hypocrisy. She did not. I felt this was a major flaw in her campaign strategy, at the time; and I still do.
Yea, largely agree. The economic prosperity is unequally shared, but the reality is that those who prosper the least also tend not to vote. Short of a calamity, I don’t see that changing. So as much as I’d like to see a leftist-populist message, I don’t necessarily see that as a vote getter this November - not to mention that given that Dem Congressional leadership is centrist, timid and corporate owned, they’re not exactly the most authentic purveyors of such a message. I do think such a message would work statewide - and Dems need to focus on state houses! - but it’s not a sure thing nationally. Not right now.
I am not sure I agree with the argument that making this election about essentially the fall of the republic is a loser, though. We’ve seen a large number - for America at least - of mobilizations and marches these past eighteen months. Women’s March, March for our Lives, Tax March, etc. they’re all predicated on the idea that something is seriously awry. That we’re in crisis. I certainly don’t think Stormy Daniels or even Russia are going to capture lighting, but as Ross states, the gobsmacking corruption and grift is something most Americans simply didn’t think was possible here. “There’s something rotten in Denmark.” It appeals to Americans’ patriotism - we don’t see ourselves as that corrupt - and makes it about Trump at the same time.
Of course, if Trump is something that is now considered 'normal', the situation is far worse than we are willing to face.
Here's something to consider. Trump has always been Trump - and he thrived for years in New York City, a supposedly liberal enclave. But how did that happen?
Josh Marsall and others have been looking at where Trump came from. Here's a round-up of their views:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/22/1766365/-Josh-Marshall-May-Be...
2
Right after the election, two Italian NYT commentators (yes, Italians) warned Democrats (liberals) that focusing on Trump's personality failures and constantly attacking him would end badly. Of course, they had experience with their own Trump in the form of Silvio Berlusconi. And, as it turns out, they were right.
Just try to have a conversation with a Trump supporter and they will go down the list of all the terrible things liberals are perpetrating against their hero. There's no convincing them of his utter lack of real experience or effectiveness. He has conned them and they're comfortable with this. "Let it be."
So what's the best strategy? The only thing liberals can do in today's America is start nurturing and voting for the next generation of progressive thinkers. I fear, it's going to take 10 or 20 years to re-engineer a new Party that can defeat the current Republican power base. Don't think for a moment that the Republicans are not in charge or that Trump will not be re-elected in 2020. The Democratic party is incredibly weak right now and I fear will disintegrate into a 1000 pieces after the next mid-term losses.
1
The surprise of the last two years hasn't been how Trump has governed (And I use that term loosely); rather the surprise, albeit a slight one, is that virtually all Republicans in Congress have been willing to support Trump with behavior that in Democrats they would immediately brand as treasonous.
No elected Republican at this point can seriously claim to put country over party. They are quislings, one and all. Down the road there must be a reckoning.
3
Does Douthat realize that his "run on Trump's corruption" proposal is precisely the one that Democrats officially unveiled yesterday?
2
Great economy really?! The Stockmarket set for triple digit losses today and gasoline prices skyrocketing but hey we got a few sheckles from that huge corporate tax cut. Has anyone checked their 401 k retirement statements. So you have to think what so great about this Trumpian economy.
Nov 8, 2016 - Dow: 18,332.74
May 23, 2018 (10:16am) 24,784.05
over a 25% increase since Election Day and you are focused on one day???? No wonder the only ones who believe comments on this page are the Trump haters so beyond reasoning with that the country is by and large ignoring them.
1
I rarely agree with anything Ross writes but this is one of those times “That his administration is a grift that’s in desperate need of policing, oversight, constraint” explains much of the Trump experience. The meetings with representatives of foreign powers, the backroom and secretive meetings between administration lackeys and business hacks, the general corruption of the governing process truly reflects the underpinnings of Trumpism. Like Putin’s Russia its governing by an organized crime strategy while using misdirection to hide the true intent. Its a shake down folks and we’re the marks.
3
Is it as troublingly odd to others as it is to me that the same people who beat up progressives in the '80s and '90s with the smear of 'defining deviancy down' have completely forgotten their slogan now that Trump, and they, are in power?
1
Ross, all of Trumps supposed triumphs come with asterisks: healthcare, employment, foreign policy (????) . . . There is simply nothing there. If you rate his leadership in terms of destructiveness, he gets the highest of grades.
If America can somehow resolve the strategic blunders of Iraq and Afghanistan, maybe we can set ourselves on a straighter course, but Trump's way is far too wrong to support.
Face it, the Republicans are spitting in the faces of their constituents and we are all losing. We should pray the Democrats get their acts together and step in and I think they are on their way.
2
I won't disagree with this. I would add, however, that there may be lots of Republican voters like me, who choke on the Bernie Sanders messaging. The ideas that the economy is rigged, corporations are inherently bad, that you can't get ahead, that you need the government to solve your every day problems, that everything should be free and the way to do that is dramatically raise taxes on any and all who've managed to disprove his notions we are oppressed. Instead bring a democrat centrist who can reach across the aisle, who reeks of trustworthiness, a leader who believes in America's greatness. Joe Biden would pull people in, Bernie will not.
4
Well - the economy IS rigged (that's what laws do), and our lack of socioeconomic mobility is a documented fact.
But the idea that corporations are inherently evil, that things should be free, that the govt should solve all problems - yes, dumb ideas. What a good thing Sanders doesn't advocate them.
This is midterm cycle, not presidential, where the vision for the whole country is essential. Local issues will dominate and will differ from state to state. On top of that fixing and expanding Obamacare, fighting the corruption of Trump administration and GOP Congress, reckless tax cuts and ensuing record deficits, preventing the international chaos, those may be issues common to each community.
When push comes to shove this year and in 2020, the elections won't only represent referendums on Donald Trump, but judgements on the whole Reagan Era. For those suggesting that the Democrats must return to the center, realize that this was the dead end you arrived at 2016 Given the advantages Democrats have in terms of demographics, it behooves them to provide reasons to vote than stay home. Remember, low voter turnout aides the incumbent immensely.
The problem facing Democrats is that they agree with Republicans on the policy issues that affect people's pocketbooks. This is why Hillary lost -- she didn't support the Sanders economic agenda.
The famed Obama himself -- as well as Hillary Clinton -- did not want an increase in the minimum wage, Single Payer Health care or an end to foreign wars, because their big campaign donors are corporate America, Big Pharma and Big Medicine and Big War Inc.
So, after paying the insatiable appetites of the corporate, medical and warfare sub-groups, threre's no money left to fund the things wanted by 90% of ordinary Americans -- health care, infrastructure (got water Flint?), jobs, global warming reductions, energy sanity, safe food (got your E. Coli Lettuce recently? ).
This is how they Soviet Union destroyed itself -- Endless fields of weaponry and bloated welfare for its warfare supported subclasses.
It's the same everywhere. The actual *entitled* class is not poor people who want a modest livable pension from the government, but the Military Industrial Complex Corporations and Contractors who secretly urge on every war as a way to make the population afraid and keep diverting precious funds (50% of federal tax revenue every year) to ridiculously unneeded foreign wars and the maintenance of the most gigantic warfare establishment known in the history of the world (shhhh . . . you can't talk about it).
The DLC, DCCC, establishment dems care about war, not people.
117
Yes, if the Dems had only nominated Bernie, none of this would happen. Haha. I believe that if Bernie supporters had shown the maturity to vote for Hillary, instead of pouting and saying home or voting for third party candidates, we would not be in this mess.
20
The historical record is filled with Obama and his team pressing for an increase in the federal minimum wage. It's one of many goals which had no prayer of passing the intransigent, stop-Obama-at-all-costs, party-over-people, GOP controlled congress.
26
Trump won by 86,000 votes between OH, PA and MI.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/russia-turned-election-for-trump-clapp...
She didn't visit once after primaries.
Hillary trailed trump in many head to head polls before election.
Sanders not once. Always up, often by 12+ points.
But main stream media rarely shared head to head polls.
And shame on the DNC for allowing Hillary to take over financial/'consultant' control BEFOR the primaries.
RIGGED...... but she still LOST
It was an outsider year. Political blindness even from Obama.
Some of the most astute commenters among the readers of this paper have responded to Mr. Douthat's column with expressions of despair about the American electorate. Voters lack either intelligence or integrity; they ignore the abundant evidence of Trump's unfitness or they embrace his racist values. In either case, they have given us the government we deserve. This analysis would seem to imply that Trump has already won the contest for the American soul.
If we compare the current crop of voters with their predecessors, however, this gloomy assessment seems dubious. Whatever the shortcomings of our educational system, our contemporaries easily surpass earlier generations in their mastery of virtually every academic discipline. The information revolution, moreover, has converted us into the best-informed group of Americans in history. The quality of some of the data we imbibe may not inspire confidence, but it can hardly rank lower than the uninformed gossip that served our ancestors as a substitute for the internet.
And despite Trump's corruption of public discourse, no major public figure would dare lace his comments with the casual racist and homophobic expressions that routinely appeared in the speeches of prominent politicians fifty years ago. Racism remains a resilient pathogen in the body politic, but far less virulent than in the past.
Invidious comparisons with earlier Americans will not help us understand our current dilemma.
40
In 1787 the Founders were worried about uninformed voters, thus initially only white property holders could vote. I guess they figured if you owned property you either came from a prosperous family, thus more educated, or if you were born poor and earned your way into the property owning class, you must have enough brains of some kind to vote more intelligently. Farmers owned land, but how much did they read with all the hours spent tilling the fields and animal care? But in an agrarian world it was different, most were farmers.
You claim now we have the most informed voters. But informed about what? Not history, books are not read as much as in the past, not economics, not political science, not citizenship, not manners, respect for government and politicians is almost non existent. FOX NEWS is usually the most watched source of "news". If we're so informed, why can't viewers know that FOX is propaganda, fiction, only a touch of straight news. Anyone could have read about Trump's whole life. Admiring a fictional part he played on TV is not informed, it is a fiction that he is one of the best businessmen. In NYCy he was never able to win the admiration he obsessively craves, considered a crude pariah by the vastly more successful and more decent tycoons.
I reject your opinion, an informed population does not back a creep and think FOX is truth and chant"Lock her up." 50% of eligible voters don't care enough to vote. This is informed?
16
The Demographic time bomb for conservatism is still ticking. Trump was/is their Hail Mary for one last shot at padding their donors wallets, and stacking the courts before they head off into the political wilderness. The question is how far down is the GOP willing to travel with this Con-man. The early retirees from Congress don’t want to be there anymore. That is the GOP quandary.
Wisely, the Democratic playbook for the upcoming midterm elections appears to be following the dictum of the late Speaker of the House, Tip O'Neil, that "all politics is local". Accordingly, a rich diversity of outstanding Congressional candidates is emerging from centrist, to right of center, to left of center, to progressively left policy positions. "One size" cannot and should not control the selection of Democratic contestants, and this formula has already been proven to be successful in a number of by-elections in a variety of voting districts around the country.
Candidates are appearing organically, from grassroots efforts in distinctive locales, rather than being dictated from on high by national party leaders. This is smart, strategic politics in the current era. It will win elections, which is the sine qua non if the amoral, corrupt Trump and the destructive, sycophantic Trump Republicanism is to be stopped. And every one of these candidates primarily appealing to local demographics and concerns, are also free to address more national/international concerns, in their own way.
1
This is a simple admission of the reality that there is no national Democratic Party—just a bunch of protest groups. The best they can offer is getting all the protests focused on the character of Donald Trump. There only big idea is to raise taxes, especially on the rich. A Party based on anger, battling the failure of the Obama years to deliver anything people actually love
Republicans will gain seats in the Senate and hold onto the House. The democrats have already fumbled their chance. This Hail Mary plan would need divine intervention to succeed, and democrats would likely refuse the help
The nation needs a third party to eventually replace the hapless democrats
3
I think you're right Ross. I also think that immigration laws must be followed. Every time I read an editorial in the NYT favoring the flagrant disregard for the law concerning illegal immigration, I am astounded at the number of commenters who disagree and yet Democrats always side with illegal immigrants. There is an inherent fairness issue at play. We Democrats must take care of our citizens first, period. We need to propose a solution to the issues that matter to everyone. Affordable health care, the environment, and higher pay for now low paying service jobs. And the number one issue that no one wants to touch, money driven politics. We need a lot more imagination in the Democratic party and a platform with actual new issues that includes every American especially the "despicables" if we're going to survive as a party.
2
I absolutely agree to focus on issues rather than character.
That's exactly the reason Democrats lost so many local elections. Stop focusing on federal level social issues and pay more attention to the local economy. And Win!
2
I plan to show up to any future Trump rallies near me with a large Russian flag and a loudspeaker playing the Russian anthem.
If anyone votes for Republicans they simply have no adequate moral conscience. When we discuss an election that clearly focuses on a small portion of the population benefitting from one parties actions...
For god sake...in a rational world this November's election should be a landslide for Democrats. It's painful to even see this as a discussion.
First, democrats tried to diminish his economic success stories (ex., Pelosi's "peanuts" comments). Then they tried to claim his diplomatic efforts were dangerous (ex., he'll start a nuclear war with North Korea). They they switched from dangerous to incompetent (ex., China's duping him). They haven't exactly distinguished themselves in their battle with Trump.
Democrats have a serious challenge: Taking on Trump, who has shown he can beat the best politicians at their own game, and dealing with their extremist leftwing, which keeps pulling them away from the voters they need to recapture.
2
I no longer belong to either of the 2 main parties because I still believe, maybe naively, in democracy. I think candidates should strive to sincerely express themselves, period. They should be "genuine," though to posit this as a strategy reflects how degraded politics have become. Strategy is appropriate in individual contexts. I would make my case differently if I were arguing with Mr. Douthat, instead of Mr. Krugman, or my uncle. But people and arguments are not abstractions. Treating them as commodities to sell undermines their point.
A big part of Mr. Trump's political success, like that of many Republicans, lies in his apparent sincerity. I don't mean that Mr. Trump is honest, it's more that he doesn't distinguish honesty & lies; he has no such filter. His project, self-enrichment & self-glorification, he wears on his sleeve. Republicans, not Democrats, can get by with this because its "base," & to a lesser degree swing voters, live deeply enough in Fox-land to believe that greed is patriotism, oversight is corruption, & image is reality. Republicans get the advantages of sincerity without the obligations.
We live in a world where information is ideological, & premised on forcing us into the debate that serves its purposes, instead of ours. The answer to this is honesty, not calculation. If you obey the strategy our corrupt politics & media impose, you lose even if you win.
Mr Douthat has completely ignored the data in reaching his conclusion. Democrats need to win the popular vote in November by about 7 to retake the House: the generic ballot is still near that number, and Democrats are still vasly out performing last year's performance (by more than enough) in general elections. Those spell good news for Democrats.
Trump, meanwhile, still has historically low net favorability ratings despite a booming economy and apparent success in North Korea. Midterm elections are almost always a backlash against the president. That's bad news for Republicans.
Unlike Silvio Berlusconi, whose country plays no role, or has any consequence on the international stage, Donald Trump is always one mistake away from a disaster with global implications. And, Donald Trump and his band of lickspittles aren't up to the job. Americans are by and large uninformed about government, history and politics. They like the circuses and the bread, but the disaster is coming and when it does they'll turn on Trump in a New York minute.
1
The way to deal with Trump is to focus on:
1. Corruption. Focus on his personal corruption which has pervaded his business and now his political life. The Democrats should demand day after day to know the details of the Chinese government loaning $500 million to a failing Trump Hotel project in Indonesia and 48-hours later Trump's reversal of sanctions against ZTE, a Chinese owned telephone company. Was it coincidence or bribery?
Likewise, was the loan of money to his son-in-law of several hundred millions from a Qatar based company a shake down or legal?
Opponents should learn from the Clinton email scandal that the key is repetition. In the case of Trump, he is corrupt but will try to divert. The attention of the public has been rotted by Facebook and Cable News. Thus, the narrative must be repeated continuously.
2. Ridicule. Nothing destroy pomposity faster and more completely than ridicule. Trump must be portrayed as the bumbler that he is. Over and over again.
3. Association. Once upon a time not too long ago, smoking was glamorous. Now, smart and admired people do not smoke. Once upon a time being anti-gay and anti-black was acceptable. Now it is now. Likewise, being pro-Trump or a Trump defender must be made unacceptable. He is a bigot and crook and support for him must be made to define and tar those who support him. Social pressure is a powerful thing.
Trump's opponents need to fight him in ways that will work and win, such as these.
1
Your solutions 2) and 3) are precisely what have made Trump such a powerful social force. They convince no one who is not already a member of the choir; they solidify his support.
You have not gotten the memo that half of the electorate gobbles down liberal outrage and disdain for breakfast. An additional 15% finds it merely offputting. That is no formula for electoral success.
Democrats should never normalize trump his tweets, his outrageous behavior or his embarrassing of America. The mistake in the next election will clearly be by those who have supported, made excuses for or actively supported trump. Look how happy the Harley Davison workers in Wisconsin are with their choice of trump. Jobless with nothing to show for their vote. I’m sure that the very meager tax break that trump and his republicans bragged about will mean nothing I the face of rising gas and healthcare costs. Democrats need to remind voters over and over that only wealthy voters and corporations are laughing all the way to the bank. The rest will continue to fall deeper behind. The sink hole at the White House is a symbol of trump and the republicans values. VOTE BLUE!
1
Too many young people with college degrees are under employed looking at a mountain of student debt. They need better jobs and debt relief. Too many people in general do not have health insurance. They need universal single-payer healthcare. We all need clean air, water, and soil. We need an EPA that is interested in the common good and not in protecting the fossil fuel industry and promoting the delusions of grandeur of a corrupt administrator who an even more corrupt president will not fire.
This list could go on. Suffice it to say, we ought to give control of Congress to the Democrats in November to put a check on Trump and a radically corrupt GOP.
1
The disdain American voters have for its politicians is the sole reason Trump won. “What have you got to lose” became the justification for a protest vote by frustrated Americans that neither party has credibly addressed. Outsiders are going to continue to win until both parties make fundamental changes.
For the Dems to win, they need to take at least two critical steps…
Part One is a very public “mea culpa” as it relates to a series of damaging actions/stances they have taken as a party and as a member of the political class…from abandonment to unemployed/underemployed citizens, to idiotic stances they have taken as it relates to illegal immigration (there is a law…work within it), campaign reform, relationships with Wall Street, etc.
Part One also requires – immediately – very public behavior changes for anyone seeking or in office. Otherwise, the Dems are only mouthing ideas and have no credibility as an agent of change. This is fundamental.
Part Two of the messaging for Dems is to speak to principles… “Are we in this together or not?” …and “How much is enough?”. Every campaign or public policy statement starts here…and doesn’t stop…ever. These ideas start an adult conversation among citizens and naturally drive policy/program decisions as we work to consensus across a host of very difficult issues facing America.
What have we got to lose? Everything.
Everyone seems to have advice for the Democrats. Please, stop trying to help. Dems don't do things the way Rs do. It's hard to have a single message when so much needs repair.
N.Y. Dems seem to be somewhat dysfunctional. So, please stop using them as bellwether for the party.
1
If we start with the assumption that the "Red Team" faithful will simply vote as a tribal block (i.e., a child molester is better than a Democrat), then the Democrats can win in one of two ways … based on the local politics. And the best examples are found in yesterday's primary victories.
First, there is Stacey Abrams. She can be elected as the Governor of Georgia if she can mobilize non-whites, young people, and liberals.
Second, there is Amy McGrath. She can win by going to the center.
Note that both of these are rejections of the old guard of the Clintons, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi. The best thing that the Democrats can do is to realize that they have passed their "sale by" dates.
1
The racial composition of Georgia is less than 40% non-white. So she needs to find enough liberal voters in Georgia to make up for that. Here's betting that it will NOT happen.
Seriously, Mr. Douthat? The Dems should return to the Center? At a clear inflection point in which your party co-conspires to take down our democracy this morning by implicating our Justice Department in a non-existent crime, as they exclude Democrats from the Intel briefing this am and lie to reporters at so-called afternoon briefings? The Dems need to find the center?
The Dems need simply to relocate their spines and beat down the doors of the Justice Dept meeting today!
2
Ross, is this just a journalistic observation of yours or are you cheering this on from the cheap seats? I think it to be the latter.
Even with this monstrosity of a Republican administration, you somehow enjoy smugly chuckling while the Republican party bottom-feeds on our society and openly promotes amorality, ineptness, ignorance, corruption, and cynicism.
There might just be that many reality-challenged people out there, but this old educator/soldier will never give the fight of right vs. wrong, good vs. bad, true vs. false.
2
Congressional republicans need to be firmly defeated in November for not doing their job.
The corruption, grift, self dealing and foreign money in this administration is open, exposed and everywhere!
Vote them out - clean the house
2
I remember when Obama was elected, and he was branded as a socialist. All we heard is what a horrible socialist he is, and how this country is descending into socialism.
This backfired: Obama was not a radical, he did not fundamentally transform people's lives, and he was successful, leading many young people--who had not experienced the Cold War--to conclude, "if this is socialism, maybe socialism is not so bad".
My point is that you should be careful about over-the-top demonization. If Trump is so horrible, so stupid, so destructive, people are going to want to see evidence. As Douthat points out, most of the things people care about--the economy and global politics--are doing just fine. If things are fine in November 2018, I bet an awful lot of people will conclude that maybe Republican domination isn't so bad.
As Italian, I was never persuaded with the theory of people like Zingales, which I synthetized in "in order to become a norma country, we need to pretend we already are. True, for both Berlusconi and Trump, that you can't beat them only by repeating how bad they are, as most of their voters know it, but still believe it's convenient for them to vote them, but on the other side you can't pretend they are ordinary opponents.
Here in IL's Sixth district, we have a hot campaign to replace Peter Roskam, a six term Republican who has sided consistently with Trump's agenda, with Sean Casten, an entrepreneur and scientist.
It's interesting watching Roskam change his stripes and claim he's now an environmentalist, distance himself from Trump's agenda, and still claim credit for helping "working families" in his sprawling, gerrymandered district.
People here are fired up over many things but what most resonates with voters who are likely to vote against Roskam: the swamp that Trump has built in the WH, the abject cronyism of Trump's cabinet, and the rejection of science, logic and reason in the deconstruction of crucial government agencies like the EPA.
Keep your eyes open for news from this district, because it also features a heavy Hispanic and South Asian population that's counterbalanced by conservative Evangelical mega-churches and Wheaton College. As IL06 goes, so goes a lot of the country: Trump die-hards are unconvinceable, but reluctant Republicans and swing voters are horrified, agitated, and ready for change.
2
"The Resistance" will totally lose their marbles when Repubs remain in control of the Congress which is very likely. Get the popcorn ready!
The Dems are going down hard in ‘18, and rightly so. They’ve learned nothing from ‘16, and their platform of “Impeach Trump” is a complete failure.
1
"And the Republican retort, for now, writes itself: Why gamble on socialism when the Trump economy is already supplying the jobs we need?"
Ah, Mr. Douthat, you're one of the reasons that the Right is headed for a lesson in November. This, sir, is President Obama's economy. Donald Trump is just along for the ride.
Another Douthian/Republican/Right false equivalence.
You just can't be honest can you? None of you? Donald Trump is writing the midterm results, grammar anarchies and misspellings all.
2
What happened in Italy is different from the U.S.. Mr. Douthat misses a key distinction. One of the factors to Trump’s victory was low democratic turnout. It is likely that this will change going forward. In addition Italy has a parliamentary form of government. The decreasing lower voter turnout likely helped Berlusconi win. Finally, Italy is not a 2 party system. This reads like the conclusion of similarity was reached before checking the facts.
To hate or not to hate. That is the question.
If the politics of normal play to the GOP favor, why have 40 of them retired this round incl comrade Paul Ryan?
That's a pretty funny photo you got to go with this article...what are you trying to say?
Trump is not the cause of the current malaise in our democratic system. When personal and partisan self-interest trumps the common good, then the corruption of democracy is inevitable.
When the majority of the citizens in a country is willing to trade off the values of the common good for the price of personal material goods, then the problem is not the demagogue taking advantage of the opportunity but the materialism suffocating the spiritual life of the country.
The dying country cannot be resuscitated by a new leadership now. It's too late for that. JFK, MLK and Robert Kennedy were assassinated 5 decades ago for attempting to resume Lincoln's mission, as were Carter and Obama, not with bullets but with regressive obstructionism.
The dying country must now rise from the ashes, reborn like the Phoenix. A worldwide economic collapse may accomplish this collective transition, if we still have a planet to live in after hurricane Trump.
The latent seeds of racist fascism and divisive self-interest must die before before this country can rise again, as it will, to lead the world in the quest for goodness, beauty and truth, as it once did. We need to make America good, beautiful and true, again. But it must be reborn in our hearts and minds first. ###
74
In the 2016 Presidential election my fellow Democrats, led by Hillary Clinton, steadfastly ignored the needs and concerns of all those voters in fly-over country.
If we are to succeed in the mid-terms and again in 2020, we must develop strong leaders and come up with a platform that meets the economic and social needs of the majority of Americans, not just those who consider themselves the elite.
Bemoaning Trump is no substitute for an appealing platform; there are actually some smart people in fly-over country (and elsewhere) who can see past the concerted effort to denigrate Trump, his family, his allies and his supporters. Let's give these people better alternatives to identify with and support in the mid-terms and in 2020.
14
I don't think I could of said it any better. Thank you.
The Friday night debate on about political correctness featuring four of my favourite intellects Michael Eric Dyson, Jordan Peterson, Stephen Fry, and Michelle Goldberg was a very good indication of how far the USA has regressed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxYimeaoea0
I have long admired Pastor Dyson and Professor Peterson but the debate belonged to Stephen Fry and Michelle Goldberg. Nobody will challenge Dyson's and Peterson's scholarship and intellect but they are so bound up in their own rhetoric that they have forgotten how to listen.
it remained to Stephen Fry to acknowledge that is liberals who have brought us to this sorry end because they do not listen to the other side and Michelle Goldberg to acknowledge that sometimes we go too far in claiming our righteousness and insight.
It is time to frame arguments and counter what we see as mistakes but the USA is so polarized there is no listening to the other side. There are none so deaf as those that will not hear.
11
All this bemoaning about political correctness is simply about normalizing hate speech. A very tired denial by those who've never been on the short end of the stick.
Given the number of local stores that have shuttered and closed in the past year, now lying dormant with windows boarded up I would disagree with the premise that the economy is doing great.
Sure it is for the bigwigs, the 1% of Wall Street but not for the average man. We are hanging on with low paying jobs, often 2 at a time, to make ends meet. So there is a good Democratic message right there.
It's hard to ignore the elephant in the room. Trump masterfully makes everything about HIM 24/7/365. Even if it isn't about HIM, he will tweet or open his big mouth and suck that attention right back to HIM. Ignoring him is difficult at best. Calling out the grifting and corruption is a no brainer. Trump and Pruitt make it easy but the question has to asked - Who will care? An appeal to care about the moral character of a candidate will be painted as Liberals preaching - "Real" America does not care and how dare the elitist coastal libtards tell us!
The GOP does not want to talk about the economy for the midterms. They know the tax bill was and is 'unpopular'. It's the economy stupid still rings true and the Democrats should bring it up at every opportunity.
2
Hard for me to finish this essay because I started laughing so hard at what Ross claims are the 3 Republican advantages. So you believe Trump and Republicans have a political advantage because they: haven't screwed up the economy yet; started a war; and are too incompetent to turn their nutty/harmful ideas into law? And they pay you for this "analysis"?
3
Where is the explanation of the first two years of the Obama presidency that resulted in Republican majorities in the House and Senate?
1
Mr. Douthat knows Democrats plan to attack the blatant corruption of the Trump regime this November, so he touts it. How do we know it? The Democrats announced it this week.
When the Democrats do well in November with this message, Mr. Douthat can assert he was prescient. The reality is this only shows he can read DNC news releases.
Yup big tax on nation's credit card and now another one coming in November and the deficit continues to go through the roof. And now gas going towards $4.00 per gallon! Go Trump!
1
It is all about economy and healthcare. The Republicans want to rob people of desperately needed healthcare and passed a tax cut that served the richest 1%. Trump, and the Republicans talk about helping, but their policies hurt. The conversation has to be about policies, and there, the Republicans lose again and again and again and again.
2
I find this column insulting. Donald Trump and the totally toadying GOP are destroying our democracy. They own the votes of 40 percent of the population. Bernie Sanders is not a Democrat but another grifter like Trump looking to use a party structure already in place to his advantage. The real Democratic leadership is pretty spineless and mostly without a coherent and unifying strategy. So the mid-terms are being left up to individual candidates to work with their constituencies and districts. Too many American voters will sit on their hands and stay home on Election Day--giving the Trump voters an advantage in November. And then the media--pundits like Douthat here and many, many more in the media-- helped Trump get elected and have completely normalized him and his dishonest and corrupt administration. Now the media blames the Democrats because they can't find and use the perfect strategy for a mid-term comeback Obviously from this comment, the media's "perfect" strategy is to tell the Democrats how clueless they are and hope the GOP stays in power. Have to tend to that bottom line you know...
1
If nothing else, Democrats, drop the impeachment thing. It's a loser issue. Talk about how, behind all the bombast, lies and rhetoric, how current policy is affecting the middle and working classes. The devil is in the details and can be made digestible by speaking in plain English.
Ask why EPA is to hold back studies of the effects of deregulation, especially where safe water is concerned. Or if USD 250 billion is a "medium" sized asset number for a bank and we're prepared to go through 2008 again. There plenty more to choose from as well. If the Dems are going to have a better chance in November, some demagoguery might not hurt. But forget Trump himself. It's all white noise anymore. Play the class warfare card a little, the 10% v. the 90%, the hypocrisy card and remember that "politics ain't beanbag".
1
The Democrats do not have a dilemma, unless you want to continue to treat politics as a horse race of the power hungry.
The People of the US have a dilemma--do we want the Mad King to continue to wreak havoc on our country?
This has nothing to do with political parties, but with each voter's evaluation of how people should act in the world.
Think for yourself?
Although I hope I am wrong, very wrong, but Iran is looming as the new "WMD" event of this administration. Bibi's finger is already on the trigger, and, Trump's foreign policy team is ready to go...No matter how strong Trump's base is or the economy, another Middle East Fiasco will end this awful administration.
Douthat has a point. Most of the Democrats who've won have done so by simply ignoring Trumpy. Focus on issues such as quality employment, corruption, the environment etc.
Douthat doesn't have a point when he implies that the Democrats are responsible for Trumpy's legal woes. All investigations are led by Republicans, except in the House where he actually has his lackeys. This makes it all the more important that Trumpy is largely ignored by campaigning Democrats.
OK, Ross wrote a column. It is a shallow analysis based on ephemeral polls and actually recommending...what exactly?
To throw a dart at any one point in this disaster of a presidency and then prophesy about a year from now, including at this point, is an exercise in futility. We have no idea what will "play well" in the midterms at a national level for two reasons: (1) we don't know what Donald will have wrought a week prior to the elections (2) we don't know what the Mueller investigation will have wrought a week prior to the elections.
Not to worry. What seems to be winning for you Democrats is precisely what hard core Republican Douthat does not want you to focus on: issues pertinent to voters voting for specific candidates, be that issue a local traffic problem, or the record of a courageous candidate who prosecuted the bigot-murders of three black children in a church.
The DNC will be worse than useless in identifying those candidates, but the voters seem to be doing the winnowing pretty effectively. Maybe the Democrats are democrats after all.
Douthat, who finds now that the Pope isn't Catholic enough, has also discovered that the party he's promoted for years doesn't care to listen. So horrified by his own irrelevance and yet still dying to be heard he, like David Brooks, offers unsolicited advice to Democrats. And who knows, the "big tent" Wall Street Democrats might even be willing to take him in. Best give the Clintons a call.
Or maybe if these two "conservative" pundits wait long enough, the happy days of "moderate" Republican rule (can't we have Jeb???), based in the same rabid voting base of ignorance and hate, will prevail. Same tax cuts, foreign wars, deregulation and anti-worker policy, but nicer talk.
What a predicament these promoters of the worst of us find themselves in.....
We need trial balloons. Like the Govt. guarantee of a job (loser) from Cory Booker. Keep them coming, until the right one hits.
I would suggest a strong approach to climate control. We need a carbon tax and a balanced budget.
A theme for the dems, " Government with Integrity"
President Obama told us what we have to do.
Vote.
All of the rest is just paralysis by analysis. How many more ways can we analyze, package and market this stuff?
We all know what and who Democrats and Republicans stand for by now, and our minds are not going to change about Donald Trump, no matter what happens with the Mueller Investigation.
What's really going to knock your socks off is when Mueller proves that Trump actually colluded with the Russians and nobody really cares.
Trump is a con man leading a party of con people.
If you want to change things, vote this November.
2
Sorry, Mr. Douthat, But Luigi Zingales wasn't the only one of the few people to see Donald Trump coming; that distinction also goes to most of us here in New York City, where for decades we've been forced to be up close and personal to all of Mr. Trump's tabloid antics, whether we wanted to or not.
Besides, it was no great secret that Trump would eventually be gunning for the White House, since that would be the biggest trophy in his ego-driven existence, and nobody knows how to 'double-down' better than he does, since that was the first thing he learned by sitting at the knee of his mentor, the late and malevolent, Roy Cohn.
And then there's the race-card he's always been playing; starting with the federal lawsuits against his properties for housing discrimination, the full-page newspaper ads he took out declaring the 'Central Park 5' guilty before they even went to trial, and of course his 'Birther Movement' where he readliy insisted Barack Obama was born in Africa.
So, it's hardly surprising he rode that kind of racism into the White House, something that ultimately says more about America than being Republican or Democrat does.
In any case, it's always interesting when conservatives like yourself, take it upon yourselves to give pointers on how Democrats should act, especially after seeing what a fiasco conservatives and Republicans have managed to make of this country under the present administration.
So thanks, but no thanks -- the midterm dillema is all yours.
1
Don't see how lying(pretending Trump is normal) is going to win people over. Unless the lying is done very well.
The economy was "humming" in 2000, unemployment was low, the US was not at war and oil prices were low.
And GWB was elected.
7
"Why gamble on socialism when the economy is already supplying the jobs we need"? The economy is not supplying the jobs we need. It is suppling sub-standard wage jobs. This does not allow Americans to live a decent life. The real inflation that has overtaken our country is the high cost of rent, food, gas for your car, health care and utilities. Most Americans right now have to abandon the dream of owning their own home. And if the Republicans have their way, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will be eradicated, sold to private insurers and investment companies, who will fleece the consumer.
This is something that I would think Evangelicals and Catholics could get behind, as supposedly they belief in helping those "who are the least of us." That is, if they really believe in their Religious philosophy. But then I think of Paul Ryan and I guess his Religious philosophy lands more in the Ayn Rand philosophy.
This is why socialism should be the way to go. Socialism is really about Bread and Butter issues.
If Democrat want to capture the Red States, than not only do they have to stick to Bread and Butter issues, but have a concrete plan to convince voters they are better off with Democrats than with the corrupt Republicans who now serve only their donors.
12
The main battleground in elections is the center ground. Most voters, while somewhat tribal, are not hard left or right, they are center right or center left. Unlike Bill Clinton who lived and breathed the center ground, Hillary needed a map to find it. In effect, in critical parts of the battlefield she surrendered and Trump took advantage of him. This time, Trump has a different problem looming. He plays so much to the his core he is effectively surrendering that middle ground. His core alone is not going to get him elected. That ground is up for grabs if either side wants it bad enough. That means for many of the Dems they will have to put very liberal/progressive inclinations on the back burner or tone them down. Midterm is a key dress rehearsal for the big event of 2020 and if the Dems get it right, they will have driven a huge hole through the Republican strategy and possibly electorally wounded Trump. Key things for the Dems to keep in mind. only rarely does ideology win elections anywhere. Ideology only works if a party wants to stay in opposition, pure maybe but still on the outside.
3
No, the more important fight is at the extremes. They pull the center one way or the other. This is the fact of the past several decades. The ultra-right has pulled the entire political landscape to the right. The problem is that the left is constantly undermined by conservative New Democrats, who are more Republican than Democrat. Democrats must throw them out to revitalize the Democratic party and its left/liberal/progressive essence. It was not that Hillary lost her way, it was that she could not throw out the New Democrats because they gave her the nomination.
I would be hesitant to claim this is the best economy for decades.
In come inequality is growing, job creation is slower than prior years , the auto market is stagnating, higher gas prices , health care costs , interest rates are increasing eating into the meager tax cuts given to the middle class. Oil is not going to get cheaper given the disasterous Trump foreign policy. Our retail space per capita is the highest by far in the world and the effect of the transformation of our retail sector will hit us hardest.
We have for years maximized the present at the expense of the future. Our debt is growing at the fastest rate for years leading to even higher interest rates . Our infrastructure , education system have been sorely neglected. We do not have a reservoir of skilled people to meet the needs of a hi tech international economic enviroment.
The prospects for our kids are indeed bleak due to short term economic opportunism by my generation.
Democrats need to come up with an economic plan which deals with our very serious problems.
I see no leadership in the Party .
12
What we must guard against, because it's already happening, is what's known as "normalization of deviance:"
"The gradual process through which unacceptable practice or standards become acceptable. As the deviant behavior is repeated without catastrophic results, it becomes the social norm for the organization."
As long as there are no real consequences to Trump and his senior cronies, what we've been seeing will slowly become the norm. That's the real danger.
18
Marcus Aurelius -- thanks for reminding us of the type of person responsible for voting in the most corrupt, self-serving, incompetent and un-American Administration in history.
4
"Had Republicans actually passed their wildly unpopular Obamacare replacement, their current position would be much weaker. But because they failed they have less of a record to answer for,..." What they tried to do is also "a record" and it is not a record that works for the people. The Democrats should run against the Republican party and what they stand for -- Trump's graft is only symbol of that. It might help the people to understand who is really for them. This is the party that wanted to have Wall Street run Social Security and only moths ago spoke of "reforming" Medicare.
Do the people want to empower this party?
19
Mr. Douthat has it right. The one thing that no grifter wants is having his grandiose promises held up against his actual accomplishments. With Trump, it's not merely NOT doing what he said he would do---though there's plenty of that. It's also doing the opposite of what he said he would do. Exhibit A: the tax plan. Exhibit B: health care. Exhibit C: jobs he has saved. Exhibit D: renegotiated international deals and treaties. On those, all he's done is smash the crockery, leaving the shards for others to pick up. And if we can put some numbers together estimating how much he has enriched *himself* in this very short period, let's compare that to how much he has helped those Americans he swore an oath to lift up.
16
Trump won in 2016 for the same reason as Obama in 2008: They represented change and reform. But the Democrats haven't received the memo, running Hillary Clinton in 2016 as the most establishment stubbornly anti-reform option they could possibly have chosen. And everything they've done since (the DNC e-mails, DCCC rigging the primaries for corporate-sponsored candidates, etc.) sends the opposite message to the popular reform sentiment of our times. Whichever party can grab the mantle of reform first will dominate US electoral politics for the next 2 decades. So far the GOP is ahead in this game.
7
I don't know much, but I know one thing for sure. With two decades, the way the young and minorities feel about Trump and the GOP, the GOP will be nothing more than a memory on the ash heap of extinction.
3
I agree, but I would submit that GOP has not “reformed” but rather “deformed” the nation. It is not merely a semantic difference, but an existential one.
4
Newsflash: Trump didn't win. He lost. He lost by 2.865 million votes.
We could call it an electoral fluke if not for the determined campaign by Russia to tilt the vote through the creation of fake social media profiles, fake events, hacks, etc. Oh, and the Comey memo.
But keep promoting the Bernie lies. He only lost the primaries by FOUR MILLION votes.
No one rigged the primaries. Bernie attempted to hijack the Democratic Party so he could run his rallies and get a platform and, yes, cause chaos. Remember, he's the one who campaigned for Hillary in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Western Pennsylvania in October, 2016. Remind me how his hand-picked single-payer initiative did in Colorado, a state he won in the primaries? Prop 69. You can look it up. Hillary won CO, so I'm sure it did great, right? Oh, it lost nearly 8 to 1? Hmmm. Gee. If only Bernie campaigned for it? Wait, he did?
BTW, Hillary got 75% of the vote in Santa Cruz County. Seems like she was plenty popular.
3
Berlusconi was horrible for Italy. He kept them mired in corruption and failed bureaucracy for years. And Italy now gets a coalition of strange bedfellows, the racist right and the populist left.
I hope that is not our fate. And so should every American, regardless of party affiliation.
Not so long ago, people were up in arms about the possibility that the IRS might have slow walked applications for tax exempt status from right wing groups. Now Trump wants the press muzzled, loyalty oaths and non-Disclosure Agreements from government workers, opposing viewpoints, with rigorous scientific backing, muzzled and the DOJ and FBI to be purged of Democrats.
It is nice that Mr. Douthat wants to give Democrats advice. But, pundit, heal thyself. The bell is tolling on American values. Do not ask for whom the bell tolls...
35
This is the best economy we've had in 20 years? With a smaller % of the working age population actually working than at any other time? With millions stuck in low wage, dead end jobs without health insurance? With our cities filled with the homeless and our small towns filled with the addicted? And with trade and budget deficits exploding on top of all that?
Real full tilt left populism would rebalance the labor/capital equation at its historical level, with salaries and wages accounting for 70% of national income instead of 56%.
Real full tilt left populism would provide food, housing, education and health care for everyone (though that would necessitate limiting the number of newcomers we let in to the number we could afford to provide for).
Real full tilt left populism would get people out from under the bridges and off of opioids.
But, let's be honest: full tilt left populism could potentially be as dangerous as full tilt right populism and would need to come with iron-clad, fail-safe brakes on its powers to prevent it from going the way of all too many revolutions in the past.
The Sanders/Warren branch of the Democratic Party is our best hope for the future, but it needs to articulate the checks it will put on its powers as clearly as it articulates how it plans to use those powers. If it can't do that, it will never win over the red state middle class.
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"Full tilt left populism" is why the Democrats are in trouble. It's no mere coincidence Democrats' standing in the polls has been falling now that the further-left candidates have won in most of their primaries. The Democrats who have been able to win the red-state middle class were moderates, like in the recent special election in Pennsylvania.
Full tilt left populism is also stuck in past nostalgia. For example, what is the "historical level" of the balance between labor and capital? For much of history, labor got close to 100% of income because there was no capital. As we get more capital, it is natural and desirable for labor to get a smaller percentage of a bigger pie. A left that wasn't mired in nostalgia would be thinking of ways to distribute capital more equally rather than rehashing Marxist conflict between labor and capital.
Restricting immigration to boost the welfare state is a non-starter. Immigration is more important than the welfare state to much of the Democratic base. Most Democrats support the welfare state for moral reasons, not because they personally need it. "Let's hurt the world's poor people to increase the welfare state here" is not going to sell.
And there are plenty of opioid overdoses in deep-blue states such as DC and the New England states.
Yeah, let’s all quit our jobs and go on the government dole. There’s a recipe for success.
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Few urban Democrats realize how huge a boom is taking place in manufacturing, mining, and agriculture out in the country. Living in the cities, where the economy has always been decent, they have no contact with the economy in the rest of the country.
Employers are now desperately combing the countryside for anyone to hire, and are even willing to consider guys who just got out of jail if they can pass the drug test.
This is not good for the Democrats' prospects.
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Great, then maybe I can stop having my tax dollars taken to subsidize these states. That would be fantastic!
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"Employers are now desperately combing the countryside for anyone to hire,"
But are they willing to pay decent wages? And if they are why are real wages lower than before the crash?
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@Len - Apparently, yes. The CEO of Union Pacific was on Cramer last night, and he said they are offering $10K signing bonuses to get guys who can maintain rolling stock. And every oil well in the US is pumping again, all you need is boots and a pickup truck.
Mr. Dotthat is right about one thing, the democrats don't need to follow MSM and be outraged at every action of this man.
Two years into the presidency, everyone in America has an opinion of the man. Listening to pundits and politicians excoriate him is not needed.
What is needed is a democratic platform that will restore some semblance of trust in our government. A platform that will offer real solutions for Americans on healthcare, the environment, and where our economy is going and how it will include all Americans.
Democrats need to strengthen election laws, vetting of the president, and make the most daring political risk, a plan to reduce the influence of money in our elections.
Oh yeah, secure the border and figure out how to keep foreign actors out of our government.
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Hillary had such a platform, but the media did not cover it and the voters were too lazy to look it up. Here is a small ample:
1. Create Fair Growth. Raise the U.S. minimum wage to $15 an hour. Increase workers' benefits and expand overtime. Encourage businesses to share profits with employees. Invest in students and teachers. Support unions and collective bargaining. Strengthen the Affordable Care Act.
Expand job training. Lower college and healthcare costs. Fight wage theft. (Source: "It's Time to Raise Incomes for Hard-Working Americans," Hillary Clinton 2016 LinkedIn page, July 13, 2015.) For more, see 5 Ways Hillary Clinton Would Create Jobs.
2. Support Long-Term Growth. Combat "quarterly capitalism." Raise short-term capital gains taxes for those earning $400,000 or more. Keep the current rate of 20 percent only for assets held for six years or more. Raise taxes to 32 percent for those held three to four years. Raise it to 36 percent for assets held two to three year. Raise it to 39.6 percent for assets held between one and two years. (Source: "Hillary Clinton Would Double Taxes on Short-Term Capital Gains," Fox Business, July 24, 2015.)
3. Boost Economic Growth. Give tax cuts to the middle class and small businesses, establish an infrastructure bank, and fund more scientific research.
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Hear, Hear! Michael! Nicely said.
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Clinton was never for $15/hour and only supported $12/hour after it become politically advantageous to do so and pushed to the left by Sanders. That's why she lost -- she's a "finger to the wind" politician who also likes to promote herself as having centrist, liberal and conservative views, dependent on who she's talking to.
See here on $12/hour
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/apr/15/bernie-s/...
Why do Times columnists blithely accept and repeat the myth that the economy is doing well? The economy is NOT doing well. The unemployment numbers reflect an inordinate amount of part time and low wage jobs. Inflation statistics do NOT fully reflect the steady increase in the cost of necessities such as food, shelter, education, health care and, now, gasoline. The stock market highs are being fueled not by growth but by tax cut-fueled buybacks.
Bottom line: Look out below.
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The deranged activist Fed policy has enjoyed bipartisan support since Greenspan started preaching against the laws of physics. Our self-harming bubble-inflating low-rates delusion is not a partisan issue, it's an establishment issue.
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They don't. Read the paper not the headlines.
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The Democrats have to imagine what the Republicans would say about this economy if it were Hillary's. Heck, they have to imagine what Douthat would say about it rather than accept the DOW as a measure of social-economic success.
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One thing I wish the Democrats would do is deny Trump the laurels for the economy. Yes, it's humming along but they should keep showing the nine year trend. Never let Trump show the current numbers without the past nine years. It's really President Obama's economy/recovery, not Trump's.
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That's the way it always works. Republican play
the "Two Santa Clauses" game, increasing Federal spending and cutting taxes; the house of cards is set to crumble, a Democrat takes over, instills fiscal discipline, rebuilds the economy, and the next Republican takes credit while setting up the next recession.
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Don't forget the GOP game of voting for a tax cut with an intentional sunset clause, so if the Democrats become the majority party when it's set to expire, GOP will accuse them of raising taxes if they don't vote to extend the cuts.
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If that's true, then President OBAMA'S supposed recovery was really GW Bush's recovery.
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Democrats need to both promise workers help with necessities that are eating their pay checks and attack specific abuses of the law by Trump.
Workers make up 60% of the economy, while shareholders make up about 20%. Ever since the Democrats started catering to shareholders for campaign dollars, they have been losing elections. Democrats can't win on donations. They have to win by offering workers tangible benefits: universal healthcare, subsidized education, infrastructure, higher minimum wage...
Republicans will call you socialists no matter what you do. They call John McCain a socialist.
Trump must be attacked on specifics. Calls for impeachment or other remedies will backfire but attacking specific abuses of power, combined with reminders of what the coalition says and how he is violating most of it will resonate with those who voted against Clinton rather than for Trump.
Social issues divide the country down the middle. You cannot win with 50% of the vote. Strongly advocate for the things that workers need, so that he working poor have real financial reasons to take time off of their second job to go to the polls.
And instead of constantly asking people for money. Ask them for time. Organize grassroots calls, canvassing, letter writing, social media campaigns, etc. People that invest time feel connected and powerful and are far more convincing than paid campaign workers and TV ads, and wouldn't dream of not voting.
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Hillary had such a platform, but the media did not cover it and the voters were too lazy to look it up. See my reply above.
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The Democratic establishment gave us HRC and have as much credibility as Douthat in planning a strategy for a Democratic victory in November.
Indeed all politics is local bot one thing that is universal is women are finally seeing Trump's innate misogyny is being put into policy to firm up Trump's hold on the regous right. And I include Douthat in that group.
Trump's latest nod to that group is his plan to defund Planned Parenthood and speaking to the recent anti choice convention.
These policies alone which almost all Republican House members support are enough to motivate women and young people who are the Democratic Party's most consistent supporters to turn out in droves.
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Looking to trends in red states like Kansas and Oklahoma that have bren subjected to radical tea party ideology might be wise. Kansas recently reinstated some texation over Brownback's attempt to veto. The teacher walkout in Oklahoma was not nearly as successful as people hoped it might be. It became quite clear there, that when given s choice between subsidies for oil and gas and textbooks for kids, the legislators chose oil and gas. People who have reflexively voted Republican for years might be getting a clue as to what the consequences might be.
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The problem with Democrats is their inability to pass local legislation. It is not too late, but it must be done now. Imagine fair tolls for a Staten Island residents as a result of a true regional transportation bill, and then imagine that resident voting for a Democrat in Congress, not a rabid Trump supporter. Imagine Universal Health Care in New York State, or Maryland? Imagine a campaign based on labor rights for workers in Ohio? Fair pay for teachers in Arizona? New industries in West Virginia? Fair voting districts? Imagine local governments hiring unemployed college grads to do needed work? Imagine an opponent really telling the public about how a Republican is hurting them locally, not nationally. Its the little legislative victories that matter in the long run.
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"Imagine local governments hiring unemployed college grads to do needed work?"
Yes, that's just what the academia-administrative-complex needs, another transfer payment support system to incentivize people making terrible choices of undergrad degrees.
Great idea! Soon we can have a TSA fully staffed by creative-writing majors working alongside the ex-cons!
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This makes a lot of sense for those of us who are reasonable and think of the issues, but the skill of the GOP has been in making some voters think of the Democrats as being mamby pamby wimps. It's disgraceful so many voters vote emotionally, but it's what has been the 40+ year game plan of the GOP. They make people afraid and get their votes even when those votes hurt the person casting the vote.
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"Since 1946, when presidents are below 50% approval, their party loses an average of 36 seats in the U.S. House"
We all know how accurate the polls were in that last election. Almost all were wrong. It might be better to look at statistics like the one above, a much better indicator, it's fact based.
And in the words of Tip O'Neill, "all politics are local". In the primaries here in GA, at least the ones I followed, Trump was never mentioned, it's local issues. Anything from traffic, to education, to healthcare.
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Can we stop with this myth that the polls were wrong? On the eve of the election the national polls had Clinton winning by about 2 % of the vote, and she did in fact win the popular vote by about that much.
As a matter of pure statistics, there is always someone out there who "gets it right." So I would be wary of putting my faith in the opinions of any particular talking head when it comes to Trump.
Be that as it may, Zingale's notion that the best way to beat Trump is to "focus on issues rather than character in debates" is about the worst advice I can think of. Perhaps you may recall the studies done after the 2016 election showing that, due to the media-created circus around the candidates, approximately 30 minutes of time out of the entire general election contest was spent on "issues" and a proposed candidate's proffered "plans" as opposed to simple character assassination and blunderbuss. In the upcoming elections of 2018 and 2020, the likelihood that we're going to be hearing about real/realistic plans to make our country better is between slim and none because that doesn't draw eyeballs to the TV or online news outlets.
It is naive to think minds can be changed. So for Democrats, the winning formula of late has been just one thing: voter turnout. What Democrats can and must do to win is go door-to-door to make sure like-minded voters (1) know when do vote, (2) know where to vote, (3) know who their candidates are, and (4) know how to get to their polling stations.
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And persuade independents to vote the democractic line too.
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You won't get voter turnout if the voter can't find a valid reason to do it. Hating Trump won't drive voters to polls. A bad economy or war might. Also, don't rule out Trump proposing single payer healthcare system. Expect the non-ideological out fo Trump.
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But you're proposing competing on "character assassination and blunderbuss" with a man who, no matter how flawed as president, is an expert at character assassination and blunderbuss. How is that possibly a good idea? Zingales' point is that you must avoid fighting him on his own ground. You have to defeat a Trump, like a Berlesconi, by demonstrating how terrible he is at governing, by showing how corrupt and incompetent he and his officials are.
8
That glowing unemployment number should be treated with a good deal of skepticism. Statistics lie and liars use statistics. Out of the count are all the folks who managed to get on Social Security disability when their jobs dried up (that includes several of my red state relatives). Out of the count are all the folks who gave up looking for full-time employment in the field in which they were trained/educated. Out of the count are all the folks who took early retirement and are going to run out of their money long before their bodies give out. I could go on. The government's statisticians have odd ways off calculating their numbers; like the Social Security check increases based on what number? The one that doesn't take into account the double digit rise in supplemental health care policies or the double digit rise in utility costs or the cost of repairing the computer on wheels whose bells and whistles never quite manage to operate glitch-free for long? I could go on.
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And inflation is on the rise, our banking rules are being dialed back to be reset to another dooms day-taxpayer buy-out program, and plenty of corruption to question.
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In fact, very, very, very few Democrats have come to seniors' defense as far as the essential end of the SS COLA (The COLA was actually first implemented during the Ford/Nixon Administration. And killed by a thousand cuts during the Obama Administration.)
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Here's another variation that for some reason gets no traction among Democrats. Move to the center on social issues, but embrace populist policies on economic issues. As a midwestern voter, I can tell you that this would work. Why is it that being in favor of increasing the minimum wage back to where it would be if the 1970's rate had kept up with inflation, or making college as affordable as it was in the 1970's, or advocating for the same health care that older americans have had for decades, is seen as ultra-liberal? Why can't you advocate for these things and sensible immigration policies that don't punish those who come to America seeking a better life and justice reform and equal rights at the voting booth, without also packaging it with left wing social issues that drive away many midwestern voters?
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Putting aside the things you mentioned, which I agree do not need to be viewed as ultra-left wing, what are the other "left-wing social issues that drive midwestern voters away"?
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Yes, the country is cut down the middle on social issues, but large majorities want universal healthcare, subsidized education, infrastructure spending and jobs, and even an increase in the minimum wage. Yes Republicans will call you socialists, they will call you socialists no matter what you do. They call John McCain a socialist.
Workers make up 60% of the population. They haven't had a real raise in 35 years. Put actual cash in their pockets and they will vote for you. (Look how happy some of them are about a $40 tax cut.
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If by left wing social issues you mean treating people who are gay or trans as equal citizens with the same rights as you then I'm sorry, but that's one that we can't let go. If by mean left wing social issues you mean updholding a woman's right to make her own medical decisions then again, sorry, but we won't let that go. If by left wing social issues you mean the desire to see none of our children get shot in schools, you lose again. I really don't know what left wing social issues you are talking about. These seem like issues that all Americans who believe in fairness and justice should support.
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America has lost its mind, so it’s hard to see how rational analysis--which requires a healthy mind—is going to do any good. If voters don’t know the difference between full employment and full underemployment, they won’t know why they’re working long hours with poor benefits for a pittance. If they don’t know that flirting with nuclear war isn’t sound foreign policy, they won’t see the big one coming.
Representative democracy becomes dangerous when it represents the petty resentments lack of understanding that puts a man like the president in power. When a president’s character, intelligence and decency are no long relevant issues, then we’ll get just what we’ve got. The agenda hardly matters. Politics becomes a cult of personality.
We’re going through the political equivalent of an opioid crisis. People know better, but they’re unable to help themselves. They like the rush of unbridled racism, the fleeting pleasure of a temporary tax cut, the warm glow that makes them feel superior to people who are no better or worse than they are. It’s not something you can talk people out of.
It doesn’t help that Republicans are aiding and abetting our descent into madness. To gain a temporary popular advantage, they would undermine the very democratic principles that gives them power. Eventually, things may correct themselves. But in any race, bouncing off of the guardrails is no way to make progress.
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"When a president’s character, intelligence and decency are no long relevant issues, then we’ll get just what we’ve got. The agenda hardly matters. Politics becomes a cult of personality."
That is a laughably contradictory statement.
If the Trump tenure is to be considered a cult of personality in any respect, it is implicit that a large number of people SUPPORT the President's personality.
You can't have your cake and eat it too.
6
This why why Democrats have to offer concrete help with things that cost money. Double the pay of the working poor by raising the minimum wage. That is something they can sink their teeth into.
18
Wow! That's saying it like it is.
13
Yes, the economy is humming. But at what cost to future generations? The tax law spun up the economy to what it is today. The ensuing deficit, which is huge, will fall upon the shoulders of our kids and grandkids. Thank you GOP!
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There are many things wrong with the Republicans' economic policies, but saying things that are just wrong doesn't help.
"The ensuing deficit, which is huge, will fall upon the shoulders of our kids and grandkids."
What about the enormous war debt the greatest generation left to the following generation? As a percentage of the economy that debt was almost 40% LARGER than the debt today. What about that terrible burden?
Well, from 1946 to 1973, the GDP averaged a 3.8% growth and real median household income surged 74%. How did we do that? Did we pay down the debt?
NO! During that 27 year period the debt grew 75%. We invested in America. We grew the economy so that debt became insignificant.
On the other hand, we also had a big war debt after WWI. Then we balanced the budget for 10 years and reduced the debt by 38%, In October of 1929, it was only 16% of the GDP. AND THEN WHAT HAPPENED?
(If you want to raise the "Europe was Rubble Myth,". look at http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/pdf/F1.1.pdf which shows that the out put of Europe was about the same as the US in the Great Prosperity 1946 - 1973).
8
Trying to pay off an insupportable debt leads to a downward spiral in the economy which makes paying off the debt even harder. Far better to temporarily damage the economy by giving debtholders a haircut, which can be done by inflation. The people hurt most by inflation are not the same as the people hurt most by austerity (the official euphemism for shrinking the economy in a usually vain attempt to pay back debts).
The choice is political. Debts deliberately engineered to make cuts in Social Security, Medicare, and our safety net necessary should be avoided rather than paid back.
3
Len Charlap, the problem is that we are no longer investing in America. We are "investing" in the 0.1% and the Pentagon. This is not healthy for our democracy.
Democrats would not need a strategy to take down Trump and the Republicans if office IF the citizenry were:
1) decent people with moral values, ethical standards of conduct and an intolerance for unacceptable behavior,
2) educated to make observations, discern, evaluate sources and draw reasonable conclusions,
3) patriotic with a knowledge of our country's short history, an understanding of how government is structured and set up to work, and having a respect for their own responsibility (to vote, to voice their concerns, to hold representatives accountable).
If the citizenry met these standards, there would be so much outrage in every corner of every party of every state in America, not just to vote Republicans out of office for failure of oversight, but to demand that they, Republicans in Congress, impeach and convict Trump now.
But alas, we have an electorate, a small portion of the total citizenry, who are not decent people, not educated people, not patriots of the United States of America. And they vote in deplorable people to run Congress and the Executive Branch.
If Democrats need a strategy to end this nightmare, what ever that may come to be, it must include educating, morally elevating and patriotically enlightening the citizenry.
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I agree. The most revealing aspect of Trumps presidency so far for me has been the revelation that half of the country is exactly like Trump. I didn't realize before that there were so many people here that have such extremely different morals than my own. Trump has begun to reveal this portion of the population, you see it in everyone around him, in the republican party, in the white nationalists, to the lawyers in New York.
There are currently two versions of America living side by side that have wildly different view points on what the future of the country should be. I don't see anyway that the two will ever be able to be merged together. The real ramifications of this reality are only just beginning.
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agree 100% too. The division is illustrated easily for me in my own family members. The division has consequences on many levels.
Americans have indeed lost their way. Too many people I know here in Ohio are completely supportive and admiring of everything that Trump and the GOP have done. Too many are uninformed and think none of this matters to them. Both groups are about to find out how wrong they are.
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I guess the "best economy" in years depends on where you are sitting. I have looked at the future and dying young is my best financial option. Best for my kids, too. And Trump dug the hole deeper and wider, so I don't expect to climb out.
But aside from my own skepticism on how glowing that economy is, what Trump offers is bombast and assurance in the face of what people really believe - that they will never climb out; that old age is not affordable; that their kids are in trouble.
The Democrats have not offered a single coordinated vision of what to do for people who see the economy riding high, and are bypassed or will get sunk by the next giant failure - banks, school loans, collapse of medical care - whatever it is that looms on the horizon.
They are good at being not-Trump, not-McConnell, not-Ryan; but they are awful at being something else.
I am not, despite all the words i have written over the years, a liberal. I am a relatively conservative person - I want to conserve the economy, conserve the middle class, conserve our parks and our air. I want to conserve jobs and market power, and want to conserve labor protections, individual protections, protections against corporatism and monopoly that have been the standard for 100 years.
These are not Liberal ideas. Where are the Democrats who will argue to preserve the America of two Roosevelts?
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The old guard, corporate Democratic wing of the party needs to go. They are holding us back.
25
Every single one of those issues you say are important to you are the issues that are in the Democratic Party platform. It's all there. It's exactly what Hillary and Sanders were calling for. What you focus on, thanks to Republican talk show propaganda, is the social issues you don't like. Without equality for ALL human beings, there is no prosperity for all, only some.
27
Much of what you say resonates, but I question your historical perspective.
A robust economy full of middle-class opportunities grew from the liberal trust-busting iconoclasm of Teddy Roosevelt and the liberal New Deal programs of FDR, catalyzed by an all-in commitment to turning back fascism. A liberal reaction to corporate exploitation of the environment gave us a higher consciousness of the evils of pollution-for-profit and appreciation for public open spaces
17
Ross, this ignores the data showing democracies have changed, as well as Americans, and that large percentages of Americans do not think it is 'essential' to live in a democracy (be sure to check out the graphs !!):
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/29/world/americas/western-liberal-democr...
Quoting from Ms. Taub's article:
" According to the Mounk-Foa early-warning system, signs of democratic deconsolidation in the United States and many other liberal democracies are now similar to those in Venezuela before its crisis.
Across numerous countries, including Australia, Britain, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden and the United States, the percentage of people who say it is “essential” to live in a democracy has plummeted, and it is especially low among younger generations.
Support for autocratic alternatives is rising, too. Drawing on data from the European and World Values Surveys, the researchers found that the share of Americans who say that army rule would be a “good” or “very good” thing had risen to 1 in 6 in 2014, compared with 1 in 16 in 1995.
That trend is particularly strong among young people. "
There has been a cost to democracy that GOP'ers didn't anticipate during their years of obstructing Obama, which they dismissed as 'politics' when it was actually Sedition.
GOP'ers will lose much more under the chaos which will now ensue, than if they had let democracy function and deliver the spoils of democratic capitalism to benefit the most people.
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Really, R Law?
You take a trend that is evident world-wide, including the NYT admired Nordic capitalist nations and blame it on Republicans?
There’s enough meat on the bones of stupid stuff that the Republicans actually do - making everything their fault actually hurts Liberal credibility.
Looks like it’s “clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right!”
3
The GOP - caused gridlock last 8 years actually workd beautifully to GOP advantage. People lost interest in politics, did not understand democratic process and got tired if democracy. All that made them ripe for some strongman, particularly on the right.
This bubble has to pop before it gets better.
9
This is precisely what happens when you practically eliminate the Civics & history curriculum from schools -- you get a generation of people who have very little appreciation for the system that got them all the liberties they enjoy and take for granted.
3