Fascism thrives when liberal elites ignore the needs of their people. When the major parties are united on senseless austerity and limitless immigration, the voters are effectively emasculated and they know it. Votes for the "populist" far right parties are votes of desperation.
1
More melodrama from a guy who hasn’t been correct since the last century
8
Let us not overlook the impact of massive immigration on the rise European nationalism. The destabilization of the Middle East that became rampant during and after the illegal Bush War on Iraq, the resultant rise of ISIS and the Syrian War that followed.
5
It wasn't until Trump was elected that the main stream media and average Americans took notice that the GOP has lost its morals and its marbles. Fox News runs the GOP and now the country as evidenced by Trump's compulsive Fox & Friends watching. Americans are complacent and politically unsophisticated and do not follow the dots from policy to their daily lives and Fox News and the GOP are masters at exploiting the emotions of uninformed Americans. Tens of millions of people think they are listening to "God's own truth" when it comes from Sean Hannity. However, you can't lead people where they don't want to go. Roger Ailes' genius was realizing how many mainly white Americans were waiting for someone to tell them how the "world has done them wrong", especially Democrats, Muslims and Mexicans. Sadly, I think the country will not completely right itself for 25 years or more when the baby boomer generation is irrelevant. The question is if we can hang on until then.
11
Krugman is one of the few American commentators who seems to understand Europe. Over at the Post, anyone who criticizes the EU is considered a populist, which is a polite euphemism for neo-Nazi. The Italian economy has been a mess for 20 years, because of the euro. The EU and the Germans are increasingly blamed for the mess. Italy's debt/GDP is 132% it will struggle to survive the next downturn without a major readjustment. The Germans don't believe in Keynesian policies so GDP will drop, just as it did in Greece. You can't blame the Italians for wanting to take back control of economic policy. They should have wthdrawn from the euro years ago.
Orban won an election with two-thirds of the vote. Hungary is a small country with a population of 10 million. They want to preserve their culture. They believe in nationalism, much like Israel. The EU has no use for nation states. The problem is that the Eatsern European countries fought to maintain their independent identity during the Soviet occupation and won't give it up easily.
9
What do you mean by, “in the teeth of the evidence”?
1
But wait you forgot to give some credit to the housing/Wall ST created world economic collapse of 2007-08. The 1% has made out like bandits since, but the rest of the world is still screwed by that event. and we are not even talking about a generation of young people who have almost no future as a result. Populism, fascism, people without hope in the 30's looked to "friendly" solutions too and they did get some work, an economy, roads and cars but what a price they paid-an what was America's part in all that?
2
The threat to the rule of law in Europe when compared to the threat in the US is not on the same scale. Two key tenets of the rule of law, are the existance of those institutions which ensure that the main power yielders in a country (or union of countries) are held to checks and balances. The two checks which set the US apart from (many countries in) the EU, are that the US enjoys free speech/free media and accessible (relatively) independent courts, whereas these elements are captured to varying degrees in several EU states. The US courts will resist any effort to breach the 1st amendment to introduce oppressive defamation laws. Europe is not so lucky. The EU Court of Justice is (with minor exceptions) not even accessible to EU citizens.
3
What is happening in Europe and America is the people are fighting back against the political class and pseudo-intellectual elite who are sneeringly label their concerns as populism.
Populism, or the collective wisdom of the majority IS democracy.
8
What's the matter with Europe? The question as the answer both are obvious to this European who got on a boat and left the continent for brighter shores and never looked back. Europe is a social concept, a philosophical postulate, an ethnic observation and a historical disaster. Europeans are French, Italian, German, Greek and Spanish first. Brits never were Europeans, they chose to join a Union. My parents who both survived two European/World wars often mused at putting Slovenes, Poles, Cypriots and Estonians under the same flag. Brussels and Strasbourg are homes to thousands of translators who travail to be faithful to the intent and procedural rigor of legal documents translated from German to Maltese or Spanish into Tcheck. That's what the matter with Europe is, it's a soup of ingredients which grow side by side without a Chef. Its origin lies in the dreams or war wary intellectuals who achieve only one remarkable success namely to keep 500 million people from killing each other as they had done in the previous twenty centuries
An aspiring observer interested in suggesting what the future might hold would be advised to begin the search by attending a few cross border soccer matches and watch the social and ethnic enmity. The Euro is to blame only if one were sanguine enough to vision an issue to this impass. Start with the flag and add the stars that are missing. Never mind Trump, Zuckerberg or Bolton, Europe has a bigger problem. It needs a leader yet to be born.
4
Excellent assessment Dr. Krugman. The stark reality of ethnic nationalism is certainly a common characteristic between both forms of Populism on each side of the Atlantic. I think a major contribution to it on the West side is the restrictive two-party system we have. Either/or politics and an 'us versus them' mentality has allowed the more extremist versions of the R party to capture the national platform. To be sure 'free and fair elections' are basic the requirement for democratic change (note how it has become common dialogue to question the fairness of the 2016 election along partisan lines) but until we politically evolve beyond red vs. blue, representative politics will still be easily captured by elites and special interests.
1
I agree with Krugman that the elites are a problem especially when a member of the elite can say something like “True, we didn’t suffer a euro-style disaster” and completely forget about the Great Recession. There are millions still suffering here from that one, Paul, but you can forget it sitting in your ivory tower and having your petty arguments with other elites.
The failure of the European project came from integrating economics without integrating politics. The single currency tied countries to economic policies that couldn’t be easily changed because the European Parliament and the people had too small a voice in making those policies. When weaker countries started suffering from the austerity imposed by stronger ones their people should have had more options than leaving the union or the euro or submitting. Stronger political integration would have given them more power to force compromises on countries like Germany and France who were doing well.
It is unlikely that Europe will come to its senses and realize that more integration and a stronger European government is the only thing that can save them from once again descending into fascism.
As it is unlikely America will realize that a stronger federal government is the only way for us to avoid their fate.
1
I´ve got a question. And it´s not a pseudo question with a hidden agenda. One thing that truely interests me and I have yet to hear a reasonable explanation for: What is the difference between devaluating a currency and just simply decreasing wages?
Often times the Euro gets blamed, because it prevents countries from devaluating their currency. But just decreasing wages would be essentially the same thing: people can´t afford as much as they could before.
If any of the southern countries in the EU (e.g. Greece, Italy) would go back to their weak currency from before, what circumstances would change for the better for the poeple ? Their purchasing power would be the same than in Euro if they had lower wages. Interests would probably be even higher and the whole system more volatile. Am I missing something?
Apart from that, about austerity: It is really hard to explain a german minimum-wage-earner why his taxes (or benefits withheld from her/him) should go to keep bailing out a country like Greece (or banks who loaned them money without proper risk management for that matter, I´m not sure where to put the blame) which isn´t able to collect taxes properly from even its wealthiest citizens. If there were good governance on Greece´s part (or even any governance at all), it could probably be sold. But not like it is right now.
1
Your question, Jochen, is easy to answer: They would loose their savings for their private investments again as it used to be before the Euro was established. I remember well when people in Italy saved their lire for their new car or their new kitchen or condo. In lira they had a 10 % loss by inflation each year. The first who got out this trap were South Tyrolians who saved D-Marks by using German and Austrian bank accounts - their private comsumer´s swap. Banks in South Tyrol had to allow D-Mark and Schilling foreign currency accounts for the locals then. If not they would have lost most of their clients. The banks in Trento had to follow soon.
The next step were Northern Italians running down the banks in Südtirol and Trento who were allowed to establish foreign currency accounts also for them. First they came in their holidays, then regularly. So a "D-Mark economy" began to establish in Northern Italy. The ECU couldn´t stop it.
In the end - this means before fixed change rates were established in anticipation of the Euro - I payed higher amounts mostly with D-Marks there. Everybody had the change. They preferred this just to secure personal savings for their new "macchina" against inflation. In the end Italy was in alert about the growing currency drain to D-Mark and even France began to worry about the Franc.
Because all old folks in most soft currency countries remember these days well their approval rate for the Euro is still high - no matter what macros think.
5
Can I consider myself to be living in ‘Europe’ when I live in Switzerland? If I can, it’s what’s right with Europe. Great healthcare, great infrastructure, great salaries, great standard of living and, most importantly to me, a direct democracy where the people make the choices by direct vote and the government enacts these decisions. And other reason: kids don’t take automatic rifles to school and kill other kids even though every male of military device age is required to keep an automatic rifle and ammunition in their homes.
America, love it or leave it, and if you do, come to Europe.
8
One very big difference between here and Europe is that a very large percentage of our population is heavily armed. Who know what kind of effect they'll have, but the recent events in Texas and Nevada may be a portent of things to come. These folks won't go quietly.
2
Before lecturing Europe on what it should or shouldn't do, it might be worth noting that in the western part of the continent, Trump would have had a snowball's chance of being elected. The downward spiral in the U.S. began long before that on the other side of the Atlantic with Reagan, and with Trump has hit rock bottom. The U.S. desperately needs an electoral bounce in November so that it can begin to rebuild what this one-person wrecking ball and some of his Republican predecessors have destroyed.
3
Does Europe have problems? yes quite a few - but a lot of these problems are american made - Iraq war, refugees from the Iraq war, dead/wounded soldiers from the Iraq war, the rise of ISIS, the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris climate treaty, the Libyan model, trade wars, and the question of Jerusalem.
food for thought.
7
What's the matter with Paul Krugman ?
6
It has often been said, for one by a past clinical supervisor I worked under, that to reach great heights of power in business and/or politics, one is aided by some antisocial personality traits - being willing to plunge the knife end, then give it a good twist, then turn that impulse off when no longer advantageous. We have allowed, maybe through laziness; disinterest; disengagement; confusion; whatever, a subset of these psycopaths to more or less take over. That bigger picture, not just the current horrors of the Trump era, is why November and 2020 are so important. If the current sociopathic Repubs are so utterly decimated in the next 2 cycles, maybe the antisocial pols in general will realize that occasionally the masses will rise up and throw all the misanthropes out..!
45
You conveniently omitted the fact that Iceland, unlike the US and Europe let their banks fail, and while their borrowing costs are high their debt to GDP ratio is 42%.
4
There is an article in the Todays Times that reports on how Militias are taking over Rio. This is what happens without democracy. Democracy is a contract between the people of a country with each other. Without that contract America could follow the rest and descend into the worst impulses found in the heart of the human being, the need to control, the desire for power and money, the impulse to be in with the strongest crew, which is a tribal impulse deep in the human heart. the human being must be protected from itself, and democracy is the best way, and the power of the vote, and having to please your electorate works, and has always worked. the World is split into two camps, the countries who have tried Democracy, and the countries that never had the opportunity to fairly test it. For the most part if given a clean chance, people will stick with democracy, but it ain't easy, the human being is never happy, does not understand how to be happy, the human being is restless and easily bored, and easy to anger, full of jealousy and other negative impulses, democracy takes this all into account, filters it through a set of rules designed to create a feeling of fairness, and this is how a country nearly 3,000 miles across with as diverse population as any, all independently minded, holds together, because in the end we are better and safer together, all with the same rights and equal under the law. A militia and a puffed up strong man is a poor substitute for all that.
3
Progressive income taxes and a wealth tax would go a long way to a better world.
4
Hey, Krugman. What is the matter with Brazil? Why a continent sized country, very rich in natural resources never made its way to the first world?
2
Road is hard.. OK... but please start to define the road.
I, for one, want both a federal luxury tax in place, pronto... and I am in favor for a work program for people on welfare unless engaged in full-time childcare for children I think I would make it under two. By age three it's not a bad thing for children to engage with other children. (Headstart or equivalent.)
I thought everyone thought the single currency was a good thing ... and now we have the crypto currencies. Yes, cities grow -- easier to live in than the countryside for the young and the old. (Less distance between places.)
We no longer grow our own food (family farms) or make much of anything in the USA.. (OTOH I think MJ should be legalized ONLY as a grow your own. )
Mr Krugman misses some important points, as eg. mass invasion of migrants from outside the EU courtesy of Ms Merkel (due to Schengen agreement, the consequences will hit all member states) and outrageous taxes to finance the former, on top of overblown social benefits for European citizens themselves. What happens? Just one example: government spending in Finland is more than 50% (yes, more than half) of GDP. All this is unsustainable, which has started showing.
5
It's just like during the depression of the thirties. When traditional parties can't offer a solution for the economic issues of the people, the people will vote for anyone offering a miracle.
2
So, in a word: capitalism. And you're right. Getting rid of it will be very, very hard.
2
"What kept these dark forces in check was the prestige of a European elite committed to democratic values."
The elite? Dark forces? Seriously? So condescending. This kind of attitude, despite his acknowledgement of mismanagement, is exactly what the electorate rebelled against here. The "elite" muddled things badly, and the "middle class" bore the brunt of it. So yes, Italy will exit, they should not have been admitted under relaxed rules, nor Greece.
The major economic issue faced abroad and here is one of demographics, and that our social programs "worked" based upon tax-to-benefits math with many more workers (taxpayers) per retiree (beneficiaries), and that ratio is falling roughly by half. The workforce participation rate being low is not a function of unemployment obviously at this juncture. This leaves choices of double taxes or reduce benefits by half or some blend to mend the gap. Immigration is not going to bend the curve, and we are approaching a point where the cost of debt service will incrementally eat more and more of current revenues.
1
Ms Thatcher famously observed that "socialism" (a euphemism for an ambitious social safety net) may outstrip available resources to the extent dependent on other people's money. Can that also be a contributing factor to Europe's increasingly unhappy community or is the perceived dystopia just a result of selfish failure to spread wealth more evenly within the prescribed "community" of Europeans or European nation states or local burroughs or neighbourhoods or clans?
Professor Krugman identifies, to some extent, the problem but chooses the wrong lens to examine it. As he well knows, the problem in Europe is more specific: that is a single currency but a lack of democratic accountability in Brussels.
Compounding the problem of democratic deficit is that the Euro was created in the heyday of Neo-liberalism, where a premium was put on the profitability of the German and French Banks, which would supposedly carry the whole continent to a German level of prosperity.
But the crisis in 2008 put an end to that Grand Illusion and if Mario Draghi hadn't backdoored a form of quantitative easing into the European Banking system, flooding the banks with cheap money, the German and French banks would be as Bankrupt as are the Italian Banks currently.
As Krugman knows, The Italian Banks are zombie banks. They can't invest in Italy because they don't the wherewithal or Capital to do it. So the Italians have said, enough. Will this be enough to bring down the Eurozone? No, I don't think so. It will take the next recession and the Spinal Tap like auto combustion of Trump and a good part of the American political system—that is the Republican Party and the Democrats— over the next 2 years to do that.
1
The EU is the same old tired French model of centralization. Top-down government.
That doesn't take account of very deep rooted lack of trust and resentment. I can't speak for the Hungarians or Poles but I can speak for the people I know and have met here in UK. There is a tribal, visceral resentment of the British for the Germans (listen to the banter when Germany plays England at football), and a belief that the French think themselves superior to everyone (visit France-nuff said).
Bolt on the invitation to turn up at the biggest party, ever, that Kanzellerin Merkel gave to the whole of the undeveloped world in 2015 and you have a face-palming recipe for the slow dissolution of the EU.
The 'Common Market' of developed western European economies, no Customs duties, harmonisation of some regulations, now that was a good idea. It was spoilt by the incorporation of east European junk economies and a desire to create a United States of Europe in which each national government would be reduced to a regional assembly charged with determining the allocation of allotments.
I over-simplify for effect. But I'm sure you get the idea.
And I assure you, Putin had nothing to do with Brexit.
4
Europe has guaranteed health care, and now it's in trouble. Prof K. doesn't bother to see the connection or correlation. He must have lost his ability to do anything close to reasoning.
2
Germany has guaranteed health care and it's not in trouble. There goes your correlation. Germany also regulates its capitalist economy, which is why, except for the ever-present fascists incensed over immigration, it's not in trouble.
3
The problem is thinking that government can solve any of your problems. The government has never solved anything. Moreover, the solutions that governments come up with for our problems almost always result in different or bigger problems. It seems to me that I remember a country being founded on the principle of limited federal powers....what was it called....?
1
Wrong! Government can put limits on unfettered capitalism driven by greed of powerful individuals. No economic/political system should allow a limited numbers of individuals to grab all spoils at the cost to the less powerful. Over most of the last two hundred years government was involved -- anti-trust laws, labor laws, anti-discrimination laws, environmental laws.... and most recently, the ACA. Clearly, the current gang in Washington does not agree.
It was called the United States, and it devolved into Civil War a mere 85 years after it's founding. As for your other ahistorical points: The government solved the Depression, defeated communism, built the interstate highway system, invented the internet, slashed poverty among the elderly . . . I could go on, but you (well, maybe not *you*, but most people) get the point.
3
"The government has never solved anything."
Well gee, maybe we should try living without one then.
Perhaps, sharp division into democracy and autocracy is overstated. Democratic leaders have autocratic tendencies to varying degrees and vice versa.
Presidency & Primiership are designed to be MODERATELY autocratic. Some presidents & primers take the authority of their office to test the limits of their power: FDR did but he was admired for it by most as he was exceptionally benevolent & effective. LBJ did but his Vietnam policy was a disaster. GW Bush did by invading Iraq, which was a disaster.
Churchill did, which was admired. PM Modi is doing it, so far without too much negative impact. Indira Gandhi did. She was mostly admired for it except when she had to declare the Emergency in 1975, still later she was reelected.
That authoritarian streak is a human tendency. Donald Trump uses it too blatantly but he still has firm supporters. He's not normal bordering psychotic & lives in a fantasy world; reality is too painful, to which he's intensely intolerant.
We have to be aware of it and firmly resist such tendencies in our leaders.
Identified dictators & kings also have to heed to public sentiments. When they didn't as in the French revolution they're overthrown, but far too rarely. Hitler & Stalin caused the deaths of millions.
1
Wrong for whom?
2
Might as well just stay in bed...
What a look!
Whats the matter with Europe? its whats the matter with everywhere around the world. Middle East, Africa, Asia, India.
Diversity. We're all human, but instead of emphasizing the commonalities....we insist on emphasizing the differences. Cultures. Races. Religions. There is absolutely no way you will ever solve "racism" by insisting on defining a human as "black" or "white"..... In europe, case in point, how they find a way to fight amoung themselves over who has the best cheese or the correct way to roll an egg over somebody's head to chase off evil spirits...? But there it is. Africa, Asia, India....no different....they find some difference , diversity, to justify slaughtering each other also.
Important observation from the natural scientists.............rainbows DIVIDE colors.....white is the combination of all colors.............
How can a nation have problems if it has bullet trains. Bullet trains represent greatness. Europeans have bullet trains. California will get bullet trains. So will Texas but it won't be the same thing. They might travel the same speed but the California bullet train will be more European. Now New York might get a bullet train. Finacial, political and media giants all connected by rail.
I'll bet Poland and Hungry will straighten out once they get their own bullet trains. No more horse drawn carts for them.
2
Until the migrant crisis of 2015 when 1.5 million immigrants were allowed into the EU, the EU was doing fine. Very likely Brexit would not have passed if not for the massive amounts of immigration. When you allow massive amounts of immigrants in who will be competing for resources and jobs, it's going to cause some problems. It's so amazing how the left does not want to address this issue! The left would rather shame concerned people with accusations of racism. So what are people supposed to do?
10
The EU was most definitely NOT doing fine until 2015. As Dr. Krugman points out in this column, the first major fractures appeared with the global financial crash almost a decade earlier. But it's ok to ignore that so that you can make your totally not racist argument that it's all the fault of dark-skinned non-Europeans.
Western Europe had early success because of the Marshall Plan and the presence of the U.S. military which they did not PAY for. This gave them the fiscal freedom to set up a up socialist systems, but they (Europe) thought that it was them, their Europeanness that made it happen. "Those 'boorish Americans' have nothing on us."
True, the assault on democracy is on both sides of the Atlantic. But that has fueled activism in women, in youth, in minority groups, in just about every Woke American. Through that activism, and the resultant success in voting, American democracy will not only survive, but become a model for the rest of the world.
2
REPLY TO: J K Griffin, Colico, Italy
J K Griffin asks a misleading question, "[W]hy is abandoning the euro proposed as a panacea to Europe's economic problems?" JKG then answers, "Because it would allow spendthrift, profligate policies to restart, it would stop hated austerity programs that inflame voters, it would allow lenders to rob savers, it would permit managers to get away with the bad decisions they make." Yet no one has proposed abandoning the Euro as "a panacea to Europe's economic problems".
In his N.Y. Times column on Nov. 27, 2015, Mr. Krugman wrote: "There’s widespread consensus among economists ... that Europe’s woes were mainly caused by mood swings among private investors, who recklessly poured money into southern Europe after the creation of the euro, then abruptly reversed course a decade later. [S]omething similar happened in America, too, where money first poured into mortgage lending [and] then took flight. [But i]n the U.S. the pain of that reversal was limited by federal institutions ... . In Europe [...] the cost of bank bailouts and much more fell on national governments, so that private-sector overreach soon spilled over into fiscal crisis."
As Mr. Krugman's cogent explanation of the origins of the financial crisis also underscores the flimsiness of JKG's reasoning about hypothetical motives for abandoning the Euro, perhaps JKG and those who subscribe to JKG's views might undertake more research.
Having lived in Europe and the Middle East since 1978 I have witnessed first hand how economic policies have determined the strengths and weaknesses of countries. Mr Krugman and you may have researched history; I have also lived it.
Adopting inflationary policies that cause your currency to devalue has never been a long-term solution to economic woes and never will be.
Undoubtedly reckless lending (and borrowing) policies, both in the private and public sectors have been a major contribution to this demise, as you write and I stated in my first comment, and we taxpayers are now facing the cost of bailing out banks, state owned businesses, and nations themselves, but adopting the euro was not the cause of present day woes; failures of governance, a lack of regulatory effectiveness, and the “enjoy now and pay (or not repay) for the extravagances later” are the causes.
Moreover, if you have been following Italian, Greek, Spanish politicians’ campaigning over recent years, you would have noted that abandoning the euro has often been proposed as a cure-all to economic problems.
2
The first step on the "path to redemption" is crystal clear: The Democrats need to win both the House and the Senate in this coming November's election. Then we can commence investigations into admininstration wrongdoing, Russian influence over our elections, and Trump's Byzantine web of finances that the president will neither be able to intimidate or influence.
But I do not think that Russian influence should be discounted as a cause for the difficulties plaguing the EU right now. I believe that Russian efforts contributed to Hungary's current political predicament, Brexit, and Italy's fall to near-Fascism.
Anything that weakens European and America unity and strength is seen by the Russians as good for them.
2
Trump just repeated on TV the old mercantilistic canard that a large trade deficit with China [and other partners] amounts to a "massive transfer of wealth." He should, of course, know better, but it is amazing that Mnuchin, Kudlow, Ross et al. don't have the guts to set the record straight (never mind the tired mercantilists Lighthizer and Navarro, whom no one takes seriously anyway).
Soxared's comment is light-years ahead of any other in terms of accuracy and sheer all-around excellence. The writer has perfect vision and a pellucid grasp of ther realities of this our American life.
“Meanwhile our centrists, along with much of the news media, spent years in denial about the radicalization of the G.O.P., engaging in almost pathological false equivalence.”
Those in the media are focused mainly on making a living, and the media organizations on maximizing profits.
It is important to not alienate any ideologies, and “false equivalence” becomes essential to a successful business model.
It is for this reason that honest reporting can’t be tolerated in our current economic system.
2
The problem with Greece and Italy is not the Euro. it's the fact that they are stuck with all the migrants from war-torn Syria and North Africa. The rest of Europe prevents the migrants from going anywhere but do they help these two countries deal with the problem.
And let's not forget the austerity measures forced on them. Very damaging.
3
This is what happens when you elect Leaders who not only do not understand the problems and really don't care. It is all about holding onto power.
Trump, his Cabinet members and the Republicans in Congress have proven that. The Cabinet members were installed to tear down our safety guards re the environment, education, health care, our diplomacy policies, and every other policy that has been good for the Country. Even though they lied in their hearings, Republicans voted to appoint them anyway.
Now we have Trump, Ryan and Nunes trying to destroy the Justice Department.
As for Europe, there are some bright lights there. Macron, May and Merkel have tried to work with Trump on his terms, but Trump cannot be trusted. Whether or not Italy leaves the Union does not matter anymore. The EU has been weakened already with their refusal to deal with all of the member countries that have been affected by the EU monetary policies. All countries have not been treated equally and that is the rub. The elites have stuck their noses in the air with regards to economic hardships that some member countries are suffering from. And fascism is what happens when leaders forget the "little people".
Soon this will be a world problem.
Trump and his cronies are leading the charge for the same changes here and they are happening thanks to our elected Republicans and the Republican Party.
This is a shame. There used to be a lot of good Republicans.
Where did they go?
3
People want jobs, stability and a sense of fairness. The rise of populism is due to outsourcing and income inequality
See today’s article on Harley Davidson
7
There is nothing wrong with Europe, Mr. Krugman.The 'old continent' is doing just fine, thank you; the scope and the progress of 'European integration' is a lengthy project, that is advancing, albeit slowly, although that slowness if measured in historical terms, is just a minute or two.
There is nothing sinister, or 'anti-democratic' if a nation-state wants to retain its centuries old culture, language and history, all the while fully cooperating with other 'family members' for the advancement of the union, as a whole.
Europe will never be a melting pot (which the US is so proud of, but which is falling down along racial, linguistic and religious lines). Its focus is and will remain to make the life of every European citizen (and their families) better.
Europe shall not imitate the American model of democracy, where money buys elections, where social justice is reserved for the top 0.1%. Nor should and will Europe copy American-style capitalism, which goes into a revulsion every decade or so; nor will it cede control of its destiny to the military-industrial complex, that President Eisenhower warned us all about.
I am optimistic.
6
Is it true that George Orwell worried about real dangers to European, as well as U.S., republics, that his book 1984 was more than a dystopian novel, that it was something he could see some real paths to realizing?
Mr. Krugman sees the pattern, but the cause is lost to him because he looks in obscure corners for socially engineered answers and misses the obvious - a cultural shift. Yes, under progressive policies things look rosy for years because progressivism borrows from the future. Venezuela helped us see this pattern accelerated. Europe's long-standing western-values culture was a tougher case for progressivism - although its demise was helped by a self-effacing and guilt-driven eagerness to go beyond where it had arrived a half-century ago - a racially and culturally liberal society still moored in Judeo-Christian laws and values. The U.S. now stands where Europe did 50 years ago - a racially liberal and opportunity-fair society on the verge of losing itself to university-indoctrinated guilt for its western values of individual liberty - and rolling over to the racially divisive identity politics of progressivism.
10
Chris:
I'm sure you're talking about something, but not being a resident of your particular socio-political echo chamber I have no idea what.
1
The issues Dr. Krugman outlines are real, but some important subtext is missing. The US supports a global military and empire so vast that no one in government knows how much it actually costs. Recently some researchers estimate they had found $21 trillion in unaccounted for spending by the military. The US allows international corporations to play shell games with income to avoid taxes, like Apple in Ireland. Both the US and Europe allow extreme wealth to be hidden so that it can't be taxed, in places like the City of London, some island nations and states like Delaware and Nevada. Until our leaders are forced to deal with these huge drains on society's resources we will continue to argue over the crumbs.
7
Dr. Krugman, time to move on from the idea that simply doling out the social goodies to all is the salvation of democracy. Europe is certainly succumbing to its natural state of anti-Semitism and delight in order at any cost, but this is irrelevant to its inability to face the future: having brought in a large, untalented labor force with basic antagonism to the values of the enlightenment, it will be totally unable to deal with the disappearance of jobs to artificial intelligence, and will be unable to retain its achievements of a social safety net. Climate change will make this much worse, quite a bit sooner than anticipated. Worrying about democratic values is going to be the least of their worries as their society is attacked from within and their resources cannot be stretched to cover all their residents and citizens at the level to which they've become accustomed.
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Part 1/2
In Europe, the First World War (the Second does not count, because it was the natural conclusion of the First) broke out fundamentally because of the ineptitude of the ruling European classes of the time, who failed to resolve their differences peacefully at the end of a long arms race that had begun years earlier, at a time when Europe was at the height of its economic and military power in the world. As if the war were the necessary epilogue between the challengers of the time. After tens of millions of deaths and a continent devastated in less than thirty years, under the military, political and economic domination of two foreign powers such as the USA and the USSR, the new European ruling classes of the second post-war period have started a process of reconstruction and reunification. From the very beginning the founding fathers (Schuman, Adenauer, De Gasperi and others) "used" economic convenience as a pick to overcome millennia of contrasts and divisions in a context of general poverty and powerlessness with the hope of attaining at some point a level of "critical" economic fusion beyond which economic union would naturally become political and social! This process was jammed when the ruling classes who had known the war and its horrors were replaced by those born and raised in times of peace and opulence in a context in which some countries had become stronger and more powerful than others before the desired level of "critical" economic fusion was reached.
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For years I've been reading about the failure of Europe, the folly of the euro, etc. Then I go to Europe and see virtually no homeless, well-maintained homes, spectacularly good transportation and infrastructure, well-educated multilingual citizens, people who never worry about health costs or college loans, and restaurants packed with revelers every night.
The US should fail so badly.
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Thank you Jomo!
from an European living in the crumbling US!
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You might say in the US this would have never happened if the Democrats had not abandoned the working class in the 80's and 90's and turned into Republicans light. They would have suffered even worse loses that way, but they would have had their principles. Now they look just as guilty as the Republicans for the demise of the middle class and no one can see the way clear. It will take a while for the progressives to open new options for the workers, which will become more and more attractive as the Trump plan fails, fails, fails. And it will fail, unfortunately for those who have been fooled into banking on him.
Yes, the media had underplayed the radicalization of the GOP. Along these lines NYT has brought on the likes of Bret Stephens. Thanks NYT. Sad!
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While I appreciate your economic analysis, when it comes to culture and society, you are sorely lacking. It is understandable. You cannot be an expert in all things. However, you should investigate the situation more than the conventional wisdom's "they're fascist" conclusion, especially given your ability to cut through conventional wisdom in economics. The supposedly democratic order that you think European elites championed was far less democratic than any reasonable interpretation of that term would have us believe. Brussels tried to create a superstate of unelected bureaucrats who admire Marx and decry national identities. What do you expect except a nationalist backlash against largely Muslim, anti-Western immigrants and an elite that promotes everyone except the home country? I am sorry but you need to emerge from your own bubble and try to understand the genuine concerns of a continent not just under economic mismanagement, but a self-annihilation elite whose lack of interest in democracy and liberty is the true threat.
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Charlemagne's Europe is doing well. Despite LePen and AfD a majority of citizens in both France and Germany understand that there is strength in unity at a time when the world is falling apart. There they do not waste time on who gets a wedding cake or not. Nor have they weakened workers' rights to the point where the workers are but serfs as they now are in the USA afte the "Supreme Court" has time and time again ruled against national unity in favor of the rich and corporate. Unfortunately, we must now fear that at one point the disadvantaged in our country will rise up in rebellion. As Frank Bruni recently wrote: Enough is enough.
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The problem with the entire economic system is the system is designed to collapse, because it is designed to funnel the economic power in society into the hands of the elite, and away from the individual.
You pay credit card transaction fees every time you use a card. Where does that money go?
You pay interest on your credit cards, car payment, mortgage, and everything else where you borrow money to survive. Where does that money go?
As a controls engineer in my day job, it is immensely easy to see where the problem is. We have a system with two positive feedback loops destabilizing our economic system caused by the same economic dynamic in the system: usury.
The more money you have, the more you make charging interest on loans. This phenomenon has no cap. In mathematical terms, it results in a condition called "singularity", where eventually all economic power will be concentrated with a tiny number of lenders, and literally the entirety of society relies in them for access to currency of any kind, meaning all the economic power in society to control the flow of resources belongs to the people who make decisions about where that money is lent.
On the flip side, the less you have, the more you have to borrow, and the harder it is to escape the cycle of debt enslavement to gain financial independence. Not only must you consume less than you produce, you must overcome the drag on your wages from corporate profits, taxation, and the interest you pay on any loans you have.
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"Basket of deplorables" sums up what the matter is. It is a democratic elite who is unresponsive to people who disagree with the elite at which point democracy dies! How many times did the EU ignore the outcomes of referendums until they got the result they wanted? Not a fan of Trump but at least the political system is the USA is responsive and has allowed Trump to become president. This is democracy truly working! Europeans don't have the same luck when it comes to the EU otherwise the EURO would not exist anymore. Trump is a healthy reaction. If you don't like Trump then wake up and propose solutions! A hint: calling people names (e.g. racist) and suppressing thought using political correctness won't work.
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I agree with all of Mr. Krugman's points, but I think there are 2 important factors he misses here in the US and in Europe. In the US, in addition to the dysfunction of the government, there has been a pooling of wealth and immense power at the top that rivals the robber baron era. Their influence fuels and exacerbates the government's dysfunction.
In Europe, there is the migrant crisis partially created by the US' instigating and mishandling of the Libyan, Afghan and Iraqi wars. An even greater contributor is the raging genocidal war in Syria egged on by Russia. They have created an enormous challenge with most migrants fleeing death and destruction and Russia sitting on the sidelines watching in delight at the ensuing mayhem in Europe. In my belief, we are seeing a "perfect storm" of events that are destabilizing the world order. Fasten your seatbelts...
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Wealth drives policy in all nations. Wealth equals power. Everyone from the media reporter up to the publisher down to the copy boy bow and scrape to the Billionaires as they walk by as if the scene was a military review. Facism? Communism? These are just two sides of the same Authoritarian coin. Democracy is the thin edging of this country. In paper money the edge is even thinner in this symbolistic examination.
But to get a better handle on the European and American issues that you bring forward, money is the question. Eastern Europe has 'never not known' any form of government other than one side or another of the coin. From the days of feudalism, to being under some Empire's rule, to go back and forth from one side to another, particularly in Poland's case but nonetheless throughout WWII until the fall of the Berlin Wall is the whole statement as to the why, how, when, and what to have expected.
America on the other hand has had a very great period of pretending to have had a real and complete democracy. That is we gave Northern European Caucasian men a democratic system to make money, a lot of money. Then we gave women the vote in 1920 and expanded this right in practice, not just theory to the former slaves freed from the Civil War and their decendents.
Now in America as in Europe we both want to shutter the borders to keep out or even deport 'undesirables' back to some place that is mired in war, civil strife, authoritarian rule or complete anarchistic life.
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Krugman's right to ask the question, except that he should acknowledge not having any answer. Referring to "dark forces" at some "deeper" level won't do, because that's precisely what the question is about. As for the euro, while Krugman's analysis may be correct (I don't really know, not being an economist), such technical point is clearly insufficient as an explanation for the current, worldwide rise of populism and authoritarianism.
My point is not to blame Krugman or other smart and well-meaning commentators. However, watching their collective helplessness in face of the unsettling reality, I wonder if the time has not come for good people to suspend temporarily all questions, debates and disagreements and simply but forcefully, perhaps blindly but stubbornly, do everything we can, day after day, march after march, election after election, to throw our corrupt, indecent, inept and destructive administration out of power.
What's the matter with Europe and the world? I don't know, and at this point I don't even care. Vote vote vote, and vote.
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Putin seems to have had a two pronged path for the west: (1) Create distrust and electoral chaos among the countries of the west by actively interfering in elections and spreading disinformation inside and outside of elections, and (2) Make Syria uninhabitable so there is a massive exodus from Syria to Europe, thus destabilizing Europe. The disinformation campaign combined with interference in elections was most successful in the U.S. The exodus from Syria to Europe has destabilized Europe. Trump is apparently a buddy of Putin, at a minimum, and maybe a witting or unwitting agent. How can Putin's lapdog be trusted?
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I would suggest that this is not happening in a vacuum. The economic crisis certainly played a role, as has the endless cascade of dominoes set off by the Iraq war (much of southern and eastern Europe's angst comes from the flood of refugees).
But what if there's something more fundamental going on that is tilling the ground, so to speak, for ethno-nationalist populism? I refer, of course, to the internet, and social media in particular.
A 2010 book by Nicholas Carr, "The Shallows", delved into the changes that the internet is making to patterns of human thinking. The essence is that the constant flurry of information is impairing our ability to think or focus in-depth on any one subject. This naturally makes people more susceptible both to lies and to overly-simplistic arguments.
I point this out because in tandem with the rise of far-right populism there is a similar sort of anti-intellectualism on the ostensibly "liberal" campuses of elite colleges, in the Russophobic fear-mongering of the Democratic Party, and in the equation of antisemitism with criticism of Israel (look what's happening to Labour in Britain).
People don't seem to have the desire, ability, or instinct to even consider whether something they hear is true anymore. One of the older memes of the internet is that if it's written here, it must be true; increasingly it feels like we've absorbed that maxim as a society without realizing it was a joke.
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Mr. Krugman, during the financial crisis, your columns scared me half to death. We survived.
Sometimes I share your view of the future under Trump and the Republican Congress; but more often, I'm optimistic. they are so bad that many people who always voted for Republicans in the past are noticing. My optimistic nature says we'll be seeing a strong Democratic renaissance in the US.
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Still, I have been thinking that my wife's (American) son, who lives in Spain and claims EU citizenship with an Italian Passport, would never give up the excellent health care, etc he (and his Spanish wife and children) has in Europe to return to live in the US.
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Obviously your son is not among the 25% unemployed (50% among younger adults).
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Nothing's wrong with Europe.
If the U.S. minimum wage had kept pace with productivity, it would now be $19 - $21 per hour (sources: Forbes, Pew Research, Business Insider).
In Europe, living wages are supplemented by the E.U. Bulgaria, the bloc's poorest country, has seen its minimum wage increase 10-fold since 2001.
The U.S. doesn't bail out states, just banks and multi-nationals.
The NBLS's report of 4% U.S. unemployment is based on their definition of "employed": if someone works 1 hour during the week of the monthly survey, they are considered employed. 1 hour!
Able-bodied workers between age 16 and death are counted in the same report, in the national labor force participation section. The U.S. is at a record low, with only 63% of those who can and want to work, working.
Europe and the U.S. both have about a 10% - 15% unemployment rate.
Europe has problems with racism and religion in former Communist countries, as they can again practice their Orthodox Catholicism.
They accept E.U. loans and financial aid, never repay them, and refuse to accept immigrants. They break E.U. accords. These countries may be asked to leave the E.U.
We pay high taxes for generous safety nets. Parties have proportional representation. Constitutions lean Socialist.
The U.S. Declaration of Independence supports the individual. The U.S. doesn't represent and protect all, with its 2-party, oligarchical system and negligible safety net.
What's the matter with the U.S.?
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Corruption plays a role in southern Europe, especially in Greece.
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The notion that there wouldn't be a few bad apples among the 27 EU members was perhaps too optimistic. Most of the Eastern European countries have never experienced any advanced kind of democracy, so it is not really surprising that they find it hard to grapple with fundamentals like freedom of press and division of judicial, legislative and executive powers. I think the populist surge in Europe is somewhat overrated by Krugman. Poland and Hungary are obviously outliers, but Italy always was a strange country with a taste for political chaos until a certain limit, and the election result just reflects that good old tradition. You should not read too much into it.
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Are we less moral today than we were when brother would fight brother? The stage is global today, but human history continues to be a story over-written by the aura of justice.
Theodore Parker was a Unitarian minister and prominent American Transcendentalist born in 1810 who wrote eloquently about the abomination of slavery:
"Look at the facts of the world. You see a continual and progressive triumph of the right. I do not pretend to understand the moral universe, the arc is a long one, my eye reaches but little ways. I cannot calculate the curve and complete the figure by the experience of sight; I can divine it by conscience. But from what I see I am sure it bends towards justice.
Things refuse to be mismanaged long. Jefferson trembled when he thought of slavery and remembered that God is just. Ere long all America will tremble."
(From "Ten Sermons of Religion," Theodore Parker, 1853.)
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The European Community, which later would become the European Union, was the result of a complex series of negotiations amongst European leaders, aimed to set the ground to avoid future conflicts and to facilitate the recovery of the national economies as a consequence of the Second War World. France and West Germany, most notably, found themselves obliged to sit around the same table, talk through their differences and find the means to prevent any catastrophe from ravaging the continent ever again. German militarism had to come to a halt, but unlike the core of the Treaty of Versailles, the Germans were to have an active voice in the construction of the new European edifice. Brilliant men like Jean Monnet, De Gaulle and Adenauer were responsible for the designing of a long lasting international project based on mutual understanding and trust. Today we march towards an international community wherein great historical achievements, like liberty, democracy and cooperation are taken for granted, as though they were perceived as inherent rights no nation ever fought for.
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Much of my family is from Europe, so in 2015 I had an instantaneous and shocked reaction as I heard news that Angela Merkel had just invited millions to come to Europe from the Middle East. I said to myself; "Well, this is the straw that breaks the camel's back in Europe, and likely in the US," as both Europe and the US already had large nativist anti-immigrant movements. A host of things made her decision worse. First, Merkel didn't even attempt to consult other EU countries. In welcoming immigrants. Merkel triggered a massive movement across Europe that her own country was unwilling to absorb, meaning she expected all other EU countries to automatically absorb what Germany would not. Merkel insisted that other member states, with no choice in the matter, accept immigrants they didn't want. It served to confirm the worst beliefs that Germany issued EU decrees by fiat while strengthening reactionary anti-EU elements throughout Europe. Merkel spoke to her motivations, but they only showed how misguided she was. She actually believed that a great way to atone for a brutal history of anti-Semitism was to thrust Europe, already with massive financial and social problems of its own, into a 1600 year old schism and conflict between Sunni and Shiite Muslims who had no understanding or connection to European culture or liberal Enlightenment ideals. So much of what followed next, from Brexit, to Italy's Five Star Movement, and yes, even to Trump, is in part caused by what Merkel did.
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The world is becoming mixed. Those nations that resist it will be behind the times. It is a project that is coming, the world is getting smaller, like it or not.
And the white Christians that can’t deal with Muslims, and the Muslims that can’t deal with white Christians, and all the other combinations (black, Asian, et cetera).... this is the lower part of society, in all races.
Educated and intelligent people of all races and origins all get along fine. Their education and intelligence is the common point between them all, and it is what unites them.
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The other side of the coin is surging populism: free education, guaranteed jobs, free health care and ultimately a .
country run by elites with ever more rules and regulations. The economy will come to a crawl which will embolden ever more promises and loss of freedom. Welcome to the Krugman utopia.
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Sounds better than what we have now, TBH.
Education that saddles you with crippling debt, healthcare that saddles you with crippling debt, jobs with stagnant wages and no employment security, an economy that crawls for all but the top 1%run by incompetent celebrities with rules slanted to help the already wealthy.
Republican Utopia isn't all you make it out to be.
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Remember that there are still bright (or brighter) beacons shining through the fog of demagoguery...The Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Germany and many more.Then there's Australia , New Zealand, Hong Kong and Singapore and others.
Yeah, yeah...many of them are smaller populations/countries but I don't buy the "Too Big so will Fail" argument often thrown to give excuse to the successes of smaller nations and why those much larger make things harder and why they may have the problems or tendencies that now assail them.
It's more than size , it's mostly substance. Those things built and just as important...maintained. It's also about the Power of the people on one hand to shape a better or best destiny and their ability (as well as by whats built and maintained) to avoid hijack by the many things , groups and people whose vested interests and self desired mores and desires are always pushing against the protective barriers built ...looking for weak spots.
In the end, it may boil down to the people and at what level of participation , ability, desire and means they have to make things happen, make things better or currently, protect from the vagaries that may now assail them or still have the means and the will to change or bring back what once was had.
It is not Size. It is probably Heart. That first makes it happen and (if come to it) that last gives hope and retakes that which was taken.
It's up to us.
The 2008 recession spawned by get rich quick bankers and real estate markets transformed the life style super power that Europeans like to style themselves. Austerity and xenophobia fed right wing growth. The Germans leaped at blaming the victims, as their remarkable punishment of Greece shows. Brexit and Marie Le Pen were juiced with right wing xenophobia. Particularly the "turn up the hate" social media message from Bannon et al in the UK. The UK has been punished with a Conservative Party leadership malaise reflected well by the May gov't.
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While socialism and democracy are two sides of the same coin, fascism and "free market" capitalism are the two faces of another coin.
At the moment, both Europe and America are experiencing the natural political consequences of letting "free market" capitalism run amok. The drift toward authoritarian fascism, like the drift toward economic monopoly, is built into the system and attracts the same sort of political and economic adherents.
After WWII, Europe and America managed to strike a balance between capitalism and socialism that worked pretty well. But that balance has now shifted far to the right and our institutions are being overwhelmed by accumulated wealth and authoritarian political power.
Democracy only works if people vote, and Americans are failing in their duty as citizens. We need to exercise our political rights because Trump and his cronies are moving pretty quickly to take those rights away from us.
The GOP's oligarchs "don't believe in government" because they see our Constitutional democracy as too "socialist." Majority rule allows voters to pass legislation that we depend on for a decent life, but which the rich don't want or need and are now refusing to pay taxes to support.
The GOP "libertarian" elite will "drown the government in a bathtub" like they have wanted to do since the Reagan era unless we vote against them at all levels of government in 2018 and 2020.
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A beautifully written, but gloomy assessment of the history of the EU and the parallels with U.S. history. Your sentences recounting your insight hold me in awe so when I mention other factors, I do so simply because what is missing from this essay is often not noticed, like the person dressed in a white gorilla suit who runs across the basketball court and no fans in the arena noticed. The big gorillas for the next generation surely is the flow of refugees from South to North from the high unemployment of the countries around the Mediterranean and the violence of conflict in North African countries.
2nd,there is nothing to give one an optimistic view that all will be well over the next 20 years: changes in energy from increasing consumption of dwindling fossil energy reserves particularly by newly industrialized heavyweights like China and India will dramatically change the economies of Europe, the America's, Asia, and Africa. Russia holds the largest reserves of oil and gas. I suspect the dynamics of trade will dramatically change by the end of this century.
Then there is the major shift that must occur to avoid the economic chaos of climate change. This can be done without disruption, if we can move capital to creating cheap non-fossil electricity, like space solar which could be provided to all of our populations, if we are lucky with no pandemics or nuclear war, of about 10 to 12 Billion people.
With cheap electricity humankind can experience a new prosperity.
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One of the reasons Europe is in "crisis" is due to a remaking of their society by non-Europeans. Increasingly, the formerly all-white nations have to live amongst non-white, non-Christian citizens and it has caused a panic, especially in Eastern Europe.
What's ironic is that the US and Central and South America, not to mention Australia, were populated, 100 and 200 years ago by Germans, French, Italians, Poles, Irish, Scottish, English, Swedish, Norwegians, Spanish and Portuguese.
The same European countries that today are screaming about their cultures being obliterated were the same countries that eagerly exported their peoples around the world when those nations were poor and undesirable and violent and wracked by wars and famines.
Just as the Middle East and Africa are today.
Krugman is a voice of reason speaking out to an audience that is in part, deaf, dumb and blind to the message. Let's hope he doesn't tire or surrender. But for the free press, I think this whole democracy schtick in the USA might be on the verge of needing life support. We must support the free press, lest one day we wail alone.
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Daniel, we must support the free press-- you are so right. trump's rabid attack on the media went unchallenged during the 2016 campaign-- and was cheered and inflamed by his deplorable cult members. I submit that the tariff on Canadian newsprint quality paper is not collateral damage as some say. I believe a sitting president's love fest with a commercial tv network is not only dangerous, but is part of the fascist plan. Finally, the president's constant attack on Amazon-- which is after all just a winner in the game of vulture capitalism that supposedly America supports-- is also no accident. These are worrisome times indeed. Not once have I heard a member of the GOP give a full-throated defense of the First Amendment, nor of our long history of unfettered gatherings in the town square. For that matter, where are the dems on the first?
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the GOP is busy defending the outdated 2nd amendment.
Perhaps what's wrong with Europe (and America) is that democracy is hard and demagoguery is not. We've allowed ourselves to be ruled by the "worst among us" - those with unchecked impulses to power, greed, dishonesty, and who cater to our own darkest impulses.
The hard part of democracy is being involved. Let's hope that the voters recognize the danger that the norm-violating GOP and President represent, and act in November to correct our own slide into authoritarianism.
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"Perhaps what's wrong with Europe (and America) is that democracy is hard and demagoguery is not."
You nailed it.
It's downright hard when things are going "good", and veer toward impossible when things are going "bad".
Most people will default to simple "solutions" that don't require difficult, nuanced thinking, especially when they are under constant duress and simply worried about paying the rent and feeding their families.
Trump is the most extreme example of a "simple" solution. And he has the added benefit of 24/7 "entertainment" value, which no prior president has provided.
Ironically, since he's so "non-presidential", he makes low information voters feel like he's "one of them", even though his interests run 180 degrees away from them.
Franklin famously said we have a republic "If we can keep it".
For the first time, I'm feeling those words.
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No, the hard part of democracy is consistency of high standards, which turns on a majority driven by excellence, unity and competence, when the very essence of democracy invites in that which is none of that - personified by selfish opportunism.
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But, but... isn't the "elite" the problem?
Sincerely
Confused Trump-voter
Mr. Krugman is forgetting Tom Wolfe’s observation “The dark night of fascism is always descending in the United States and yet lands only in Europe.”
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This trend of ethnocentrist or fascist ideology isn't just restricted to Europe and the United States but has been gaining traction across the World. Witness the rise of democratically elected leaders such as Duterte, Erdogan and Modi. The question is where does it end and are we headed to WW3 - this time on a truly global scale?
Its really not a very complicated problem. Why is democracy failing, because it is unable to solve problems for the majority of the people. Citizens of a country expect the government to provide both economic and personal security for all, not just the wealthy. You mention fascism as a possible consequence. It would serve all well to remember that Hitler rose to power not because he was a racist but because working people wanted something to eat and a chance for a productive life. These were desires the Wiemar Republic was unable to address.
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I wonder i you could apply the same argument to the US. Do different regions and states suffer or prosper from our single currency. Does out strong dollar help Wall Street at the expense of Main St. I suspect the concept of a single Euro is the same as single Dollar, In the end their is strength in size.
Redemption difficult? I think not. Isn't that the name of the white horse Mueller is riding out there on the far horizon? Democrat elites keep pointing him out and explaining how they don't need to do anything about Trump, Mueller is coming on Redemption. Or is the horse really named Grani?
FDR once said that the New Deal programs were needed to save our democracy. Had he failed he likely would have been the last president of a united country. People can only suffer so much before they rebel.
If Democrats during Obama's first two years when they were in control had implemented some of FDR's New Deal programs like his work programs we wouldn't be in this mess. Working class Americans lost everything while corporate America and the banks got bailed out. Employers took advantage and froze wages, cut benefits, and started employing contractors. Desperate people, tired of the gig economy decided to give the guy with authoritarian tendencies a chance because he saw what the elites missed and exploited their anger.
The wars in the middle east, the recession, the refugee crisis, and climate change means that the world is becoming a powder keg just waiting for an explosion. Trump is a warning, hopefully our political elite are waking up to just how unsustainable our current trajectory is.
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Have you forgotten the obstructionist behavior of the GOP? Obama did have infrastructure projects lined up, which never made it through Congress. Providing greater access to health care through the strength of the federal government is very much a worthy progressive goal, and it was treated as nothing less than the end of western civilization by the GOP - who as we speak continue to dismantle that achievement. We will see no recovery, no reclamation of our Progressive ideals and goals, until the GOP is voted into oblivion. It was true then, it's especially true now.
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Thanks Ami, you're right. And Bernie Sanders is close to an announcement on a public service jobs program which will be an updated version of the CCC...Economists like L. Randall Wray, Stephanie Kelton and Pavlina Tcherneva have been hard at work on the policy and crunching the numbers and the results can be found here: http://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/public-service-employment-a-pa...
Now the problem is to lay the groundwork for this reform before the next crisis hits...which is a hard sell as the centrists tout the low unemployment rate and low inflation...but the foundation is very shaky, which is demonstrated every time the Fed attempts to return interest rates to more normal levels, both the bond and stock markets gyrate with the knowledge they're losing their cheap high from QE over the years...spent not investing in productive job creation but rather speculation, which is the lament of Nomi Prins in her new book aptly titled "Collusion."
Much work to be done which can be guided by the North star of FDR's Bill of Rights, but must be built out of 2018 materials and conditions...
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What a bunch of baloney! According to WAPO right before the election, the average income of a Trump voter was 72K while that of Hillary's voters was 50K. Russian meddling, collusion, Comey, and all the other pre-election factors would've been non-issues had we had mandatory voting in place. When almost everyone votes on all levels, Republicans never win.
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US Progressives and their mythological ideal, fractured Europe; as it did the US. Both were borrowing money from each other to fund their governments, until the mechanism to do so collapsed. Now they print; and create new societal structures everyday to medicate the misery. The established political classes were either unable or unwilling to attempt redress. Mostly the latter -- out of fear, thought it rooted from the former and willful inability.
Thank our Lord, that He gave us people like Trump and his like global compatriots -- for such a time; people that can collectively-govern without fear for their political and or professional ancestry.
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Allegorical! The point about centrist elites blind to the radicalization of the republican party to the extent that Trump happens, is a chilling observation.
But there is one point Doc, that you do not make, but likely expect the reader to derive.
You note: "“Now that Eastern Europe is free from the alien ideology of Communism, it can return to its true path: fascism.”"
Got it. Fascism and 'national socialism' are the default options of Europe. But, what is the default option here in America?
And the answer is about as chilling. What was once slavery, then Jim Crow, then segregation, is now full blown mosaic of religious-ethnic nationalism. This is the default to which we have returned.
While the centrist elites made sardonic observations, affected faint amusement at everything, the ethnic identity movement begun by churches, the moral majority, AM radio, Fox, blogs, and a fair array of nuts, cut through our socio-politics and culture with its jagged edges.
Ethnic nationalism and authoritarianism (Trump worship) is now accomplishing two very important, albeit disastrous, outcomes. First, much of the good is being gutted (justice, education, environment). Second, Trump worshipers are now in charge, and will remain in power for a generation leaving behind cinder. If Hungary and Poland turn Nazi tomorrow, they have local consequences. Our default option will produce global consequences over generations.
Chilling article Doc.
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To bring it all back home...it’s clear Americans have been sold a bill of goods by one party whose leaders keep hanging on and doubling down. Time to vote them out.
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Re: While the policies of that government aren’t completely clear.....long with a crackdown on immigrants and refugees.
Italy's new populist Government announced that it plans to expel half a billion (500 million) unwanted immigrants over the next yea and a half
It might be left wing (5M) but it is more anti immigrant than Trump.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/18/italys-populists-declare-wan...
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The US is far short of a half BILLION population, and Italy's population is far smaller. So Italy can't expel 500 million immigrants, even if every person in the entire country was expelled.
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Population of Italy is only 59,000,000 roughly.
Perhaps if you read what you cite you would see it is half a million and not half a billion.
Not everyone is skilled in critical analysis. These folks will desire an easy plot line to follow and a hated scapegoat to blame. Put together into a political party tens of millions of these anti-analysis voters and viola! there we have full-blown fascism.
Nobody on the left likes to read the Gallup poll illustrating that one in five Americans assert that the sun revolves around the earth, and not the earth around the sun. But one in five equates into 65 million citizens and that is, indeed, what they believe.
The greatest danger to any democracy is the stupidity and malice contained within its voting public. We can be rid of bad politicians, but bigotry and willful ignorance of huge sectors of the population in is not so easy cured. The good news is that here in America the left outnumbers the right...if they will only show up to vote.
10
To all the writers harping on Mr. Krugman please remember that he is an Economics professor and Nobel Prize winner for some economics mathematical modeling, theoretical stuff about the Great Depression. This gig of near daily political and social commentary is just an avocation, a.k.a. a hobby. Hee hee.
4
Somewhere I read about an old man's greatest regret being that he wouldn't be around to see the world recover from its current bout of fascism. I'm just hoping that the next two generations won't share his sorrow.
Trump brings out the “best” (or at least most frequent demonstrative traits) in human nature - nationalistic racist hatred of others who don’t look or act like Trump. This story won’t have a happy ending. And they lived unhappily ever after.
1
Western Europe's problem is not well come immigrants from Africa and Muslims from middle east, Trump calls them animals and l sure Europe does too, Eastern Europe does not have this problem and their labor cost all most nothing compered Western Europe because those countries still runs old Communism rules, here we are also all most same problems, look what is going on with Unions ,Supreme Curt just rule against for workers, the whole think is looking this world is going to a 3 world war
Do tell me if I am mistaken, but don't most Republics aren't able to last beyond 2-4 generations.
In hopes of avoiding that chaos, didn't the signers of the Constitution try to find a stop-gap solution in the 'electoral college'?
By the way, my French husband reads your column and the books I have purchased which were written entirely or in part by you. I don't have all of your books, but there are some.
The problem with becoming an expert in a particular subject or philosophy is that it becomes the hammer that drives every nail into its proper place. I've been guilty of that myself and I don't for a moment consider myself an expert on the medical status of populations simply because I spent career years in a hospitals. But those of us who do find:
If you work in a county hospital the first thing the family asks about the patient is not if they will live but how long will they be in intensive care and how much does that cost per day. If you work in a Trauma 1 Care Center you know that far too many idiots have access to firearms or like to challenge themselves with extreme sports, like hiking off-trail without adequate water, etc., etc..
Society changes. We're frightened. For me? I don't believe in an industrialized, incorporated religion. I'm pretty sure all religious dogma is poison. What I do know is that religions are dangerous. A slow death.
When religious cultures clash there are always decades of war. I can't think of a war fought for centuries over currency.
3
the US is in a much worst situation... on the verge of collapse, like the former USSR.
“It is impossible for any doomed population to grasp how fragile the decayed financial, social and political system is on the eve of implosion.”
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-coming-collapse/
1
What is a matter with Europe.....simply the Age of the Super-State (think of the European Union) is ending and returning to the nationalistic tendencies which brought us 2 world wars.
Yeh, I’m not sure what his point was on this article but he clearly has a disdain for Eastern Europeans.
2
Since WWII, ill-conceived, self-righteous, self-aggrandizing, over-reaching and aggressively-asserted US-policy, across the board, has shamed and fiscally hog-tied European policy-makers and the Europeans into what they are, today; America's drones. Wake up, Europe. Retrench. You're not alone.
1
Broader human forces are at work making dreams of unity far from reality. The EU was an interesting and hopeful experiment however the forces of nationalism and human need to live amongst a society with collective sense of identity is overtaking these ideals. My observation is that humans yearn to live freely and unmolested amongst their 'tribe'. However, these identities are being challenged by artificial forces imposed on them such as immigration, political unions, currency, economic displacement via globalization, and even violent invasion (e.g. Middle East).
The full effects of globalism, unfettered capitalism, AI, and automation are just now coming into view and no political system seems well equipped to successful deal with the excess labor it creates nor the continuing overall rise of the human population.
2
This is the first time I can remember when Krugman does an analysis but doesn’t verbalize his conclusion. What exactly is the problem? Our own leaning towards fascism? Our dependence on a national, federal money policy? The rise of monied elites writing the law to suit themselves while everyone else is literally cut out of the budget? Take your pick. There are at least five possibilities in this column and Krugman fails to label or conclude which are the most destructive. Very disappointing.
1
As I traveled around Europe I was shocked by the amnesia that permeates the souls of Europeans. Instead of accolades for America‘s sacrifices of blood and treasure for their liberation I found mostly ignorance and arrogance sometimes even resentment. It was like the war never occurred at all. Once in a blue moon I found an enlightened person of my age who could discuss art, history, culture, and diversity. There seemed to be a fascination with American music and movies without really even understanding them. Their stereotypes of us were truly most appalling and offensive; fat, religious, rich, stupid, bigoted, and overly generous. Their descriptions of other peoples especially Arabs were not worth being repeated. It was like they were pantomiming the words of democracy in a forced way while yearning for something else far more sinister like anarchy. Visiting Europe these days is like drinking sour milk! It looks good in the glass but not in your mouth.
3
Your comment on Europe never mentions which countries you visited; "sour milk" or sour grapes? As retired Englishman in France I do not agree with your version of Europe; "amnesia permeating the souls of Europeans". The French usually avoid making rash statements as in British tabloids stirring the pot blaming old Europe. As for Germans they know their history. Anarchy in Italy may appear then we can all run for the hills; Switzerland? They seem perfectly normal with rotating Canton government with no wars to finance; lucky them.
2
Dr. Krugman remains a voice of sanity and reason. I would argue that history has shown us that in tough times there is a scarcity of employment, and hence, funds, for those at the bottom of the economic ladder. They see the problem as too many people eating from the pie and try to reduce their "competition" for their slice of it. This leads to branding "people not like us" as the moocher, or freeloaders eating up your fair share. That leads to some ugly labels, typically along the lines of race and "identity" (i.e. "real Americans").
We saw this in the Great Depression, with the rise of the KKK, to membership numbers that are astonishing today. That same fear, and hostility, is back, but now it's Hispanics and "liberals" who are the enemy instead of Italians and Slavs.
As Jimmy Carter said, "A hungry man is a desperate man."
The answer (IMO) is to expand the pie, not fight over the remaining slice.
A national infrastructure project, in the mold of the WPA during the Depression, would put millions of Americans to work at a reasonable wage and produce results that everyone could see, because everybody drives on the roads.
But as my father once said, "It makes too much sense, so it will never happen."
98
Pecos: USA has a shortage of 51,000 truck drivers. These are jobs that pay up to 80K per year, with generous benefits. This is already affecting the cost of goods. How on earth could we find enough people to build infrastructure-- however much it's needed-- if we can't find people to drive trucks?
7
Good questions.
Perhaps if the GOP hadn't undertaken decades ago to destroy public education there may be more likely job candidates.
Perhaps if the GOP (and a few others ...) hadn't undertaken policies to kick out the brown people there would be more likely job candidates.
Just sayin' ....
Interesting, but shouldn't trains be used for long distances. (And these should be easy to automate.)
Americans really often do not want to work hard.
AI is supposed to take on long distance trucking.
If we build vertically we need feweer roads... and more public transit. Old people prob. should not drive.. -- fastest growing part of the population apparently. Thanks to medicare and modern medicine.
Well. the causal chain seems to have worked like this:
the same pro-democracy elites that saved Europe from its true nature of fascism are the same people who contend that the solution to economic woes is austerity.
In other words, the fleas come with the dog.
So it would seem as if the populist eruption is all about credibility (or the lack thereof) and the subsequent rejection of The Elites as a class.
What's peculiar, however, is that 'the elites' in question were formed through meritocracy and education that was enabled by Social Democracy as developed in the post 1945 period. By all standards, the process was fair; these were clearly not the old authoritarian elites formed by wealth and property.
So is the belief in austerity simply a question of a bad education? Or rather, can we take a quasi-Marxist view that behind the formation of Western Europe's elite lay the same old interests if Kapital?
The bottom line of letting millions of immigrants stream into the US and Europe is colonization. The mighty powers that be, meaning the oligarchy, are trying to colonize us by bringing in endless third world, poor, uneducated masses. This will in turn make our nations into that of former colonies and create de facto banana republics. Think Brazil. This is entirely by design and intentional.
By lowering everyone's standards, wages, educations, health care, etc., we will become more weakened, compliant and desperate. This colony creep is already evident in many parts of Europe and the US. I often feel like I am in a third world country in certain areas of our cities and rural areas. It's not pretty.
5
“the collapse of freedom, if it comes, will probably happen here first.” ONLY if good men sit back and let it happen. Apathy is our worst enemy.
1
Europe and the USA share a North and South dilemma that will continue unresolved for generations. The cold, pragmatic, prosperous latitudes will need to dig deeper and deeper for the warm, emotional, less fortunate ones. Get over it and send us your money for our growing populations as though your life depends on it because it does. It is the southern people who will fill those army boots and defend the nation. Preserve the union(s)! MAGA
1
Potentially quite interesting but also rather vague. So, what is the root cause of Europe's malaise? Is it the bungling of self important Eurocrats; or, as hinted, do Europeans have some sort of predilection for fascism? ... Professor, flesh this out a bit for us.
Democracy is the rule of the people, last time I checked the definition. If the majority of the people want a crackdown on immigrants and refugees, getting one is a success of democracy since the majority is getting what they want.
Democracy, in other words, is a process and not a set of goals. What you are seeing may well be a failure of Liberalism, but a success of democracy.
2
It seems that even economists don't know the difference between political systems and economic systems. Communism is an economic system, Fascism is a political system. The only link between the political and economic is that when our political systems fail our economic system gets the blame.
Any economic system can be successful when the right political system is in place. No economic system can be successful when the political system is corrupt like ours is now
41
Communism, Fascism and various versions degrees or versious of Socialism and Capitalism are all both political AND economic systems.
6
Communism and fascism are both political and economic systems that in real-world applications have several things in common: authoritarian nationalism, dictatorial power, suppression of opposition, centralized control of industry and commerce. They differ, in theory, on the control of private property, but in actual practice there is little difference between property controlled by government-connected oligarchs and property controlled by a clique of party commissars. I think you see the melding of these two systems perfectly in the modern corrupt Russian state. But, I guess, Mr. Krugman makes a similar point in his article.
10
Mr. Krugman,
This is truely one of your best peices!
I have relatives in The Netherlands and have been
to Europe quite often before, during, and after the financial upheal. You are spot on but in a seperate article, perhaps entitled” Whats Wrong with Europe: Part Deux” you might adress the second of this three legged catastrophe: Immigration/ Terrorism.
Nothing was far more clear to me, both pre/post financial crisis, then that europeans venemhently and principaly hated the Eurozones immigration policies. The majority did not want imigration and most definitely not from countries where low wage workers came from ( insert Eastern European/ Greece, etc) but Muslim coutries! That was deeply deeply unpopular even in the times of the greatest prosperity. Add an Influx of Syrian refugess, ISIS, and Terrorism ...
Its a wonder they didnt exhume Mussolini!
3
Let's see. Ship jobs overseas destroying the middle class, import hordes of poor uneducated people you share nothing with, without asking for any input from the people most affected, let the elites run the government with little to no oversight and ignore anyone who raises any objections and label them racists, xenophobes and fascists. Then be stunned that the regular citizen is not happy and looks elsewhere for someone who will take them seriously. Democracy works when the leaders listen to the lead and don't just talk down to them.
4
Dear Dr. Krugman,
What exactly do you mean by "the collapse of freedom, if it comes, will probably happen here [in the U.S.] first"? Why do you think this is likely?
Thank you for your response.
James Nickoloff
1
Read the concerns expressed by Karl Popper in "The Open Society and Its Enemies" and you will be shocked at the parallels: Resurgent tribalism, dogmatism, fear, total ideologies, groupthink, an unwillingness to consider empirical evidence, and a massive lack of humility. (Just read the intro!) The book wasn't published until 1945, but Popper wrote it in the 30s in the shadow of Fascism, Nazism, and Stalinism. When we lose our critical rationalism, or simply put it behind our feelings, intuitions, and emotions, we endanger the enlightenment values, not without their flaws, that underpin every functioning democracy. That trend, long in the making and still strong on left and right, is even more worrying to me than Trump himself. He is simply taking advantage of it. The solution to anger and hate isn't more anger and hate. It's not even love. It's thought.
1
The EU's austerity 'programs' were/are as disastrous as the efforts of the U.S.of A.'s "conservatives" -- to feed the rich and starve the poor, may yet 'turn out' for 'us.'
But, beyond economics, the refugee crisis in Europe (in not-insignificant part created by our foolish wars, our just as foolish Middle-East and Muslim-world policies (and essentially-colonialist 'regard'), past and present, and our refusal to accept anything like our 'fair share' of refugees, has resulted in a Europe -- no doubt always 'plenty' racist and once 'universally "Christian" -- that is now, ethnically, 'religiously,' and racially so much more diverse than ever it was before 2001. In turn, Europe is now infested with the 'other race'-hatreds and discrimination 'issues,' 'other-ethnicity'-hatred and discrimination 'issues' and 'other-idolatry-confused' hatred and discrimination issues as the same have been bred, generation-upon-generation (and in no small measure 'appreciated' by so many), on 'U.S. shores.'
Yes, unfortunately the path to redemption will be very hard. Although intellectually I could define and understood the causes of fascism, but, never really associated with a real fascists until Trump. Now at social gatherings, even the gym I go to, these fascists types have come out of the closet and it is very ugly to observe how they think and talk. There is no changing their minds, who either from who brought them up or life experiences, have developed deep beliefs about race, women, religion, that are just plain ugly--and should add, now with Trump they don't mind sharing their ugliness in public places.
This comments section is full of people who think "that can't happen here." I have news for you, it is happening here. Liberal democracy is dying and fascists are in power here and elsewhere. I just hope we can stop it before it takes war, a war which the good guys (aka, not the US) may not win.
1
Never underestimate the human proclivity to be hateful and full of contempt for "others."
2
I keep making comments on it to no avail, so I'll give up after this one.
Currently our opinion columnists, many of them otherwise astute and informative, go on and on about Trump era symptoms without mentioning the cure.
The Supreme Court's Citizens United decision allowed a few billionaires to buy off our government, and unless the media demand it be reversed, there is no hope for America to return to democracy.
7
someone help me....is our country heading for a breakup. i can't see any other way out of this
Although Trump is a nightmare I am not ready to count the US out yet
The citizens have figured out that Neo-Marxists have seized control of their governments. Hungarians and Italians are done with them. Germans are next.
3
The Dark Forces are the "elite" players that messed with our elections, our government and our livelihoods and are the same ones messing up Europe, Middle East, Latin America and Asia. There is a global kleptocratic class that is 'taking and stealing' control of everything - and the fights are not between countries anymore but engineered by and between the kleptos - like Putin and his ilk, trump and his family and ilk, MBS (Saudi) and his ilk, the seven emirs (UAE) and their ilk, Iranian Mullahs and their ilk, Erdogan and his ilk, Xi and his ilk, etc. and etc.'s ilk.
Unlike Europe where you have nationalistic borders to slow or block the domino downfall of freedom in Europe, the USA only has states with weak borders making the downfall of freedom - especially secular freedom - spread faster and more violently - look at all the guns we have!
Just like Hungary, we are now ruled by one party. Just like Poland, our judicial system is being taken over by the right-wing trumpistas. As Europe absorbed millions of immigrants, has closed the door to millions and militarized our southern border.
The election of trump was Americans running off the cliff that awful November day. Since then we have been falling and falling and falling, waiting to see how far we drop before we crash into the abyss.
Imagine if our equivalent of Europe's Germany, California, were to exit America - Calexit?
2
Archetypes like greed, misogyny and racism/tribalism run deep in the human psyche. The triumph of modern culture is that (some) societies have evolved moral and ethical precepts based in law, religion, governance and what constitutes good and evil behavior. But modern history is also replete with horrific wars, holocausts, terrorism and bad behavior signalling that inhumanity is just beneath the surface.
Today we have political and cultural leaders supported by vested interests and its media assuming power in countries that were hitherto stalwarts of good values. America is run by arguably (presidential pundits not me) the worst president ever, one who plays to polarizing, ugly values. Add Poland, Hungary, Austria, the Philippines, Italy and strong populist movements threatening other European countries plus moral outcasts like Russia and China and their orbit and outbreaks of horrible behavior in Myanmar and elsewhere... One can only wonder whether are we approaching a Tipping Point.
Look to political and culture leaders plus enlightened self interest populaces choosing good over evil to save us from a break-up of liberal democracies and alliances. Or conversely the unenlightened plunging us into a hateful world of self interested ugliness.
It starts at home. Removing Trump and the ugly GoP Congressional facilitators is an important start to reclaiming moral leadership and good behavior. And we had better do this sooner rather than later...
As far as the European part of this essay is concerned, are you just coming to these conclusions? See, "Terra Instabilis," my contribution to ISBN 978-0073528755 (McGraw-Hill). See also the works of John Lukacs, who 30+ years ago was saying that fascism and not communism had a life to come in the West.
With respect to the USA, is it really fair to say that the G.O.P. as a whole has no respect for democratic norms? Trump may be a proto-fascist, but is Lindsay Graham? Is Nicky Hailey the next Evita Peron? I doubt it.
Democracy is too complicated. It gives people a voice who shouldn't have one. And since we have now achieved perfection in Donald Trump we should democratically decide that democracy has served its purpose and allow the greatness of Donald Trump to work its magic.
this november will foretell the end of this story. we could sputter along for awhile before falling completely into fascism but it will be the final tipping point in that direction..... unless we, the majority, can kick a bunch of these criminals out of office. vote like your life depends on it, it does.
1
Start by asking, first, what the matter is with the UNITED STATES!
Given: "The path to redemption will be very, very hard." then there will be no redemption. Finished, kaput, adios, arrivederci,sayonara, the turkeys done, stick a fork in it.
At a time when the definition of truth at many universities is the subjective experience of the weakest, most thin-skinned and least inner-motivated person, it is hardly surprising that Krugman's relativism should have gone to such extremes. I refer to the constant parenthetical refrain that the "dark things in Europe" ("LIKE HERE") have had malign historical consequences. I assume he is speaking of Trump or the Great Hordes of Deplorables; it would be hard to imagine anything else. If this is the case, he has lost all historical perspective. Is Trump a fascist? A Nazi? A communist? There is NO evidence for such a wild charge. Are supporters of Trump, like those of the far-right European parties or the rump communist ones, the product of cultures that have Jew-hatred as a central tenet, along with deep attachment to a Blut und Boden notion of the nation? Of course not. This is where the failure of the Left to recognize American Exceptionalism makes itself felt most powerfully. The one area in which our history is deeply tainted is race: from slavery to Jim Crow. But we have made enormous progress, despite that fact that we have miles and miles to go. The other parallels at which Krugman hints merely show him to be an elitist whose own instincts are undemocratic when things don't turn out his way.
1
Krugman makes such valuable points, but his and others' continual use of the phrase, "the elites," has me stumped. I wish some other term could be found. For me, it is a term which is used badly in an art context. There, it seems to mean art which is hard to understand but is appreciated by those who went to Ivy League schools. Thus "the elites" are those who appreciate and buy esoteric art. But that is too easy a condemnation of art itself, starting with the modern artists. In other words, things that are hard to understand are lumped with fake or exploitative things, and the people, well they are the ones riding around in limmos. So, politically, the elites seems like too broad a word, encompassing Trump as well as Obama. it is a very charged word which seems to say "Rise Up, Ye non elites, against whom?- well, we'll tell you." Get it?
Nothing about the massive inflow of immigrants from Africa and muslim Asia? Is that fact being erased from recent European history? It dwarfs the euro crisis in importance.
4
The GOP since the mid-1960s: "When fascism comes to America it will wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross".
Except in 2016 the flag was thrown off to reveal the white cloak barely hidden underneath the whole time.
Paul, you just have to accept that "democracy" is at it's root a flawed system that depends on the willingness of the "masses" to consent to a concentration of wealth and power at the top. Remember, in generally free elections, the bottom of the pyramid vastly outnumbers the top. So democratic governance is a complicated dance attempting to mollify the will of the majority with enough opportunity (that they could one day be at the top or better off) so as to prevent the rise of popular autocratic movements (whether Socialist/Communist on the left or Fascist on the right). Right now, we are simply in one of those times where, in some countries the democratic modus vivandi is breaking down.
1
Prof. Krugman,
Your definition of 'democracy' seems only to include those governments which you prefer.
Whatever you think of Victor Orban of Hungary, he certainly does not preside over a "one-party autocracy," he won half of the vote in a multi-party system. The very definition of the word which so troubles you.
Populism is popular because the people you champion forgot about the people they were supposed to champion. It's not complicated.
4
The Italians have figured out--or seem to. Soon Europe will follow. If they don't, the costs, financial and cultural, will be too great.
1
exactly, what have they figured out? Italians don't have a reputation for good governance. Last I heard it was under Mussolini who made the trains run on time. he received his well deserved upcomemance.
1
I'm very fearful that Republicans will maintain control of both Houses of Congress this fall. Why? Because in my opinion, a major shift to the Democratic Pary will require a very unpopular war and/or an economic crisis similar to the one of the Bush presidency. That is entirely possible but unlikely to happen before November. I intend to try to persuade Americans who are eligible to vote but haven't to get registered and vote. It is our only other recourse. I doubt that Mueller will be able to indict enough Trump's to change the course of the election. Vote, it's our only hope.
2
A bit confusing. Paul supported the quintessential "centrist" for president in 2016, and now find disfavor for her? A bit inconsistent Paul? I remember Paul criticizing Sander's proposals to expand "entitlements"(inalienable rights is the accurate word not entitlements), using the centrist's meme of "how will it be paid for" for his club. Memory might be failing, Paul?
Krugman left out the most powerful force moving the European periphery to the right: neocolonial capitalism.
With the collapse of the Soviet union, capitalists and their politicians envisioned its former satellite countries as low wage production economies to support western European countries, esp Germany.
Hungarian workers in BMW plants make one-third of the wages that German BMW employees make, and the Hungarian autocrats are more than happy to supply the appropriate anti-union atmosphere.
And the low wage periphery is putting downward pressure on western European wages - icing on the cake, for the European oligarchs.
At the same time the Soviet empire was collapsing, US oligarchs were preparing for the mass export of production jobs out of the country.
Krugman was correct, "what’s wrong with Europe is, in a deep sense, the same thing that’s wrong with America", but he omitted the main causative agent: the neoliberalism he champions on a regular basis.
2
Paul, Im afraid Europe’s troubles were in large part created by American interests. Forty years of voodoo economics, tax avoidance by corporations and the wealthy, the push for free trade and globalization by the financial elites of both parties, destroying unions, and wars fought for The Saudis and Israel resulting in refugees overwhelming Europe, not creation of the Euro nor by extension Germany was the cause of the rise of the right and the demise of the middle class in Europe and America.
8
Fundamentally, there are too many people chasing too few resources--with what resources there are being gobbled up more and more by a tiny oligarchic percentage of the population.
And, in the developed world, that oligarchic percentage controls the means of communication sufficiently to trumpet the message that the shrinking pie that the rest of the population is going after is more under threat from people of color from other areas of the world--either through outsourced employment or direct immigrant competition--rather than through the massing of most of that pie in fewer and fewer hands.
This doesn't end well--and given the competing problem of environmental degradation, it's difficult to predict if the bad end will be sparked by mass starvation, mass epidemic, or mass total war. But it does seem a "mass" correction by "mass" population reduction is more and more likely.
4
Europe is not one country, Mr Krugman. Events in Hungary to not in any way impact the governance of Ireland, for example. You take examples of some countries which are indeed headed down some dark roads, and paint too broad a picture
4
Mr. Krugman,
I have been reading some articles lately on Stephanie Kelton about how money is keeping our societies hostage by denying that government spending creates money. One article mentioned that Paul Krugman had expressed skepticism of the theory.
Maybe you have addressed MMT in earlier articles, but I would very much like to see your thoughts about this idea as it might lead to a more just, responsible, and happy society, especially in the US, where we control the spigot of money (for the time being).
If Cheney was really correct that "Deficits don't matter" then with job guarantees and good pay, our economy would flourish. Please share with us the downside of that vision, and any remedies that could be put in place to safeguard against those downsides.
1
Sadly, to answer the question of what's the matter with Europe, we don't have to look much farther than ourselves.
Chaos. Xenophobia. Nativism. Populism -- all signs of the moral rot which seems to have found a home on both sides of the Atlantic.
Most people here will likely point the finger at one person, or one reason for this problem, yet the truth is that there's more than one reason and it almost always boils down to the unequal division and distribution of wealth.
Having lived in a Germany and a Europe divided by a Wall, the difference between life in countries inside the East Bloc and life in the West was hard not to miss. And by all appearances, those differences are still there, even though the Wall is now gone.
The introduction of the Euro didn't unite the continent like it was said to do, it only made banking easier for huge financial institutions.
Still, nothing is more amazing than what has happened to Hungary, which was once considered the most liberated country in the East Bloc, especially after its 1968 rebellion against Soviet oppression, but like Poland, whose economy was once a sign of free market growth, it has fallen back into its former self; only this time they can't look to the U.S. as a beacon of democracy, because under our present administration, we have begun to look just like them.
7
Some day historians will look back on this period and say it was the cultural, social, economic and political equivalent of a war, waged by a Franco-German alliance against Spain. Portugal, Italy and Greece, with the willing collusion of the elites in those nations, and the self-interested acquiesence of the Dutch, Danes, Austrians and others.
As for the U.S., we have reverted to a Jacksonian era. The question is whether we can end it without some new form of civil war.
6
So Great Britain gets left out of your story? Pray tell how that can be true?
1
The "greatest generation" has passed largely from the scene, and we "baby boomers", their children, are aging fast and handing off power or being relieved of it by generations who didn't live through the era that rebuilt the Europe ravaged by WWII.
Now we need another great generation to stand against and reverse the tide of fascism rolling over democratic institutions and the spirit that animated them. In the US, it was a spirit ignited by Pearl Harbor and troubled at the end of the war by the shadow of mushroom clouds that ended armed hostilities.
The installation of the Trump regime should be seen as a disaster on the scale of Pearl Harbor or 9/11. What's happening to democracies in Europe today can be seen as reflecting our American crisis. The fact that Russian meddling in our elections enabled Trump's "win" shows that the mirror looks both ways.
Whether or not the recognition of incipient fascism at the pinnacle of US political power leads to electoral repudiation this year of its strangle hold on our legislative branches may determine if constitutional corrective measures to prevent misrule by a demagogic despot are enough to rescue us.
An isolationist nation roused itself to great sacrifices and dedication to democratic principles to win WWII and follow through with economic and political recoveries in a devastated Europe that are now unraveling.
Sneak attacks roused us in 1941. Donald Trump's presidency is no less a sneak attack than Pearl Harbor.
6
Looking at the faces of the supporters of the populist Five Star Movement reminds me of the famous Karl Marx's quote "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs."
Would professor Krugman dare to say that free market capitalism, even in European countries with generous social programs, has failed the working class men and women because capitalism inherently has and will tend to disproportionally benefit few in society and exacerbate income inequality? Would professor Krugman link the re-emergence of European and American fascism to capitalism unequal distribution of ever more profit to capital owners and less to labor owner?
Professor Krugman concludes that "that what’s wrong with Europe is, in a deep sense, the same thing that’s wrong with America. And in both cases, the path to redemption will be very, very hard." Yes, the path to redemption will be very hard indeed if the inherent contradictions and inhumanity of capitalist economic system are not courageously confronted.
3
It's a reflection of our downward spiral as a species, that's why we see ubiquitous developments internationally. Industry and technology are the tools of man's vocation. We have made survival so effortless, life so sustainable, procreation so mindless and meaningless, that there's apparently nothing left to do but pick at each other.
I have observed, over the years, an ever-increasing disregard and disrespect in socially-accepted behavior. We are at the point that we see most others as, at the very least obstacles, if not outright enemies. Life is not getting better, it's clearly gotten worse for both Americans and Europeans. Population increase and globalism have permanently altered reality. We thoughtlessly implemented globalism without considering its consequences. We mindlessly procreate, with never a plan for global population. We track it, that's it.
We are today raping and pillaging Mother Earth, to satisfy our non-stop consumer demand, at the cost of ourselves 3 or 4 generations from now.
And yes, the whole media over-saturation thing, particularly the voluntary aspect to it, is a big part of our special death-spiral. Through media, especially today's interactive media, hate groups thrive, extremists find a place for hate speech, and soft minds inevitably follow. Lies can be truth, or vice-versa, with zero accountability or consequence. Even this very comment is part of the media-mania.
We are headed for bad times, there is simply no question about it.
5
There will be a reckoning. What form that righting of the many ships of state floundering in the shoals of greed and neglect will take is unclear. Few want to burn down the mission, but as democratic systems acquiesce to tyrannical pressure, the opportunity for civil resolution diminishes. The source of this raging river of anger and fear can be found in the massive failure of international banking institutions in the years leading up to the Great Heist of 2008 and the lack of political will to punish those responsible, in the decision to make taxpayers pay the restitution. But those who have plunged a sword into the heart of free will and self-determination will face a reckoning.
3
As a unifiying explanation why Europeans turn in increasing numbers to populists not only in regions with economic problems, but also in wealthy nations with or without membership in the EU or the EZ, I would offer this: With the exception of rich libertarian anarchists, Europeans abhor the obvious impotency of their national governments in the face of globalized finance, technology and the ongoing information war (> fake news).
The main problem in Europe is not which political party—or coalition of parties—is actually in power, but the visible fact, that they all have NO power at all, to change anything substantial, and this includes the populists as well, unless they choose to change things by way of pure destruction.
The European Union—including the Euro—is the obvious remedy and answer for this, but it's hard for most Europeans to let go of their nation states, not in cultural terms, but as political entities, which makes it a distinct possibility that we will go under with them.
57
"Letting go" of nationalistic instincts like Hungary not so easy in terms of history. Hungary has seen all this before with their nation State disassembled by the Treaty of Versailles 1918: Hungary forced to cede territory to Romania Poland Italy Moldova Ukraine Croatia Serbia and Czechoslovakia. They remember. So in that context you can see why the Hungarian leader has taken a populist stance to defend their culture. The purpose of the European Union to diffuse historical baggage. Europe today is less nationalistic especially Germany. But Rome was not built in a day; Europe united may not happen but at least we were given the opportunity to heal old wounds. Language remains the problem like Ukraine banning Russian or Hungarian spoken by people in their native tongue. History works against us.
8
BTW the inception of the Euro and open borders meant that a whole category of jobs disappeared -- remember border crossings?? (Having the car searched for contraband -- cigarettes and chocolate?? ...
Paul, would it be good for various states n the USA to issue their own currency.....??
There was no actual Hungary, it was the Austro-Hungarian Empire when it lost territories. Hungary needs to get over it.
Congratulations Mr. Krugman. You have written a column with more prevarications per square inch, than anywhere else in the mainstream media. Somewhere, Pravda is missing a propagandist.
First things first: Poland, Hungary and the U.S. are not suddenly fascist regimes. In free and fair elections, conservative, capitalist-leaning politicians were elected--restoring borders and free-market reforms. This may feel like fascism to you--but all 3 have booming economies.
I challenge you professor--to point to any freedom we have lost under "Trumpism"--as you call it. Instead, we have gained freedoms--from taxes, regulations, and a deep state government who attempted to elect Hillary.
And yes, Europe is in trouble--but not because of austerity. Their economies are struggling under the burden of socialist policies-confiscatory tax rates, stultifying regulations, and burdensome work rules--which serve to stifle innovation and entrepreneurship. Even France's Macron recognizes how destructive this has been. And yes, the Euro was a bad idea--it allowed elites to impose initiative-killing socialism continent-wide, instead of country by country.
Apple, Google, Facebook & Tesla, happened here--not in France, Italy or Germany. It seems income redistribution, so prized by Progressives--stifles innovation. Socialism works similarly in Europe as in Cuba--where everyone earns the same $23 per mo. but nothing ever gets invented. But hey--they all got that free health care!
3
Jesse,
I am more worried about your propaganda than Dr Krugman column. Few corrections: Poland had a relatively good economy before the current regime was elected. What was puzzling, was that farmers who benefit enormously from EU subsidies voted against EU. The Power of right wing propaganda of fear, deception, confusion and lies.
By the way, when Apple or Microsoft were founded the personal and corporate taxes were far higher (effective taxes as well) than today. Yet, no entrepreneur was bringing it up. This just reflects the power of large and uniform American market and American Entrepreneur spirit, little to do with conservatism, a lot to do with liberalism. Think about it, the biggest American and World corporations today were founded by liberals exhibiting free and visionary spirit.
1
Yes, Poland, Hungary and US on way to losing their democracy in the sense that free press is under pressure to conform and official government policy is to ignore facts and invent big lies to further anti democratic government policies. The fact that they are capitalist is irrelevant . Fascist Germany and Italy were also capitalist. Tax policies that increase income inequality and rollback of regulations that protect public health and safety are not good plocirs, they are a threat to our society
George Bush’s evangelical inspired crusade in the Middle East unleashed tectonic forces. The massive migration of Muslims into Europe and America has unsettled cultural foundations with the obvious rise of white nationalism, fascism, and far-right authoritarianism (aka the GOP) as the result. The massive diversion of resources into our war machine crippled our social economy.
Elections have consequences. We are going to come out of this a diminished and broken country.
4
I am awfully sorry to say that, but as Bill Maher said "When people are different from you, they are really, REALLY, different...".
Our Elite only care about their figures and tables, they ignore the plight of the bulk of the population, worse, the poorest part of the population, who has to face a totally alien mass immigration with values that seem to stem from another galaxy and which destroys little by little the fabric of our European society (I could tell a thousand stories, just know that it is forbidden in France to imprison a boy less than 15 years of age in ANY circumstance, that plus the absolute interdiction of bearing arms and even defending yourself, can you imagine the endless frustration? And so much more I'd need a book to tell only my own experience).
All these apparently inexplicable movements have at the core the refusal of the mass, alien, immigration.
Please note that Europe is now integrated, meaning that your neighbor can be Dutch, Romanian, Spanish, Slovene, who knows? In a continent that was fiercely nationalist until 50 years ago, it's enough of a feast for now...Let us digest this first (esp. with those millions of eastern Europe Roms who ARE Europeans yet even more troublesome than the Muslims and subsaharan Africans).
Sorry to say this, really sorry, but once again : THIS IS THE TRUTH.
And I voted for Macron and never for the nationalists (hate them, just as I hate the immigrants).
4
The invasion of warriors from Africa, Syria, and Afghanistan is simply not understood in the US. We in the US have a tradition of immigrants. In Europe, there is a tradition of emigrants (leaving), not immigrants (arriving). In all European countries, immigrants cause problems - Algerians in France and Belgium, Muslims in Netherlands, Turks in Germany. This current round of immigrants is a huge problem for Germany, Austria, France, Italy. Unless it is solved, those countries will be destroyed.
3
The creation of the Euro was not at fault. The dumb decision was extending the Eurozone to the southern tier: Iberia, Italy and Greece, countries that could not spell b-u-d-g-e-t.
3
Emily,
may I remind you that Italy was one of the founders of the European Union?
In addition, Iberia is supposed to be called Spain.
Worse yet, this has happened while a big part of Europe has mooched off the U.S. for much of its rebuilding, defense, etc. for many decades!
What if European countries had paid lots more of their own expenses?
What if the U.S. just had used those enormous amounts of money and resources at home for our own uses?
By the way, average European tariffs also are about 1.5 times ours. The WTO (World Trade Organization) has a gigantic list of tariffs for numerous goods. The rates for what they call the Simple Average MFN Applied Tariff (as of 2016) are:
EU 5.16%
U. S. 3.48%
There’s lots of talk about “level playing fields.” So, where are they?
(Incidentally, both the U.S. and Europe have let China get away with massive trade rip-offs for many years. They have lost enormous amounts due to the theft of intellectual property, Chinese production of knockoffs that dwarfs that by any other country, many other kinds of trade barriers, manipulation, etc. Furthermore, the WTO also calculates that China’s average tariff rate is 9.92%! Many people might expect that the U.S. and Europe would work together much more to stop this gigantic menace, but often the cooperation is pathetic. Sometimes Europe also takes short-term measures to play against the U.S. and others, thereby abetting China and other bad actors. This is very short-sighted.)
2
Paul, maybe your next 10 columns should be about US campaign finance reform. You are such a good writer that maybe you could actually interest Americans in this issue. I believe the issue underlies your observation that, during a time of high US unemployment in 2010, Congress was paradoxically focused on entitlement reform. Yes, Paul, you might have to take a hit in ratings for your column with such a boring topic, you will surely make it more understandable and urgently relevant than most others could, and the country will be better for it, and your column will bounce back. Please.
3
He's right on the Euro. It's a disaster. It's killed down-market economies in Greece, Spain, Portugal.
He is wrong about what's going on in Europe. What's going on is an invasion of warriors, from Syria, Africa, Afghanistan. This has turned Europe to the right.
Globalist elites like Krugman do not understand that this invasion is destroying Europe.
3
"the collapse of freedom, if it comes, will probably happen here first."
Well, the hysteria and breast beating have already arrived. We in America are well supplied with chickens claiming that the sky is falling merely because a man with orange hair is in the White House.
Ever since November 2016, Democrats have been trying to undo the results of that 2016 election.
Why do I not think that THAT is what you refer to when you are talking about the collapse of democracy? When HAVE the Democrats accepted the results of an election which did not go their way?
Not recently, that is for sure. "Democracy" has come to mean, "some process by which the Democratic party comes into power." People who voted for the other party are "irrelevant" since they are "deplorable" anyway.
2
What's wrong with capitalism? It survives only by consumption and "growth", or more consumption. This is a finite world with a finite amount of resources. The only way it can support the overpopulation of humanity is for all people to limit the amount of resources they consume, to live a moderate lifestyle. This will never happen and we are doomed to live the consequences in an impoverished world, decimated by our avarice. Easter Island, Haiti, how many more examples do we need of humanity consuming the resources available until nothing is left.
3
Well, Europe would still be in good shape if it hadn't been hit by Amarica's foolish acts. First America deregulated its financial sector, causing huge speculation and corrupt credit rating agencies, and the whole world got hit by the Great Recession, causing great suffering and decrease of trust in leadership.
(Sure, Europe did not handle this very well, but it did not cause it.)
On top of this, America destabilized the Middle East, causing the rise of ISIS and a huge refugee problem. Who had to deal with this? Not America. No, no, no. Europe had to choose between letting refugees drown or adopt them. Europe did the right thing while America, having caused the problem, looked the other way.
So what's the matter with Europe? It shares the planet with the United States of America.
5
The same thing that's wrong with us, just a couple years ahead.
1
And it is a bit surprising to see a guy as smart as Paul Krugman suggesting the answer for Southern Europe is flimsy currencies of dubious value. This was what they had for at least 50 or 60 years, and it led to borderline poverty for the entire period.
It is like he is telling them that they should give up hope for ever doing any better.
"Devalue the currency to jumpstart exports" is the cheap solution that never leads to any long lasting prosperity. And those sort of devaluations end up in the mindset of the population, and become a part of their economic decisions. And consequent poverty.
It is a world where hard work and saving is the path of fools. If their money cannot even store value.
This is the past of Southern Europe, and hopefully not their future.
4
is not the euro the mistake, the mistake is to have let europe grow with so many countries with nothing in commun. . As for Fascism in Italy, the coalition between the ligue du Nord (far right) and the 5 etoiles (a mix??) is not going to last. iItaly for better or worse has a long story of changing govenrment every other months.As for Greece it was a disaster, but very slowly is improving. America you look at what is going on in Europe, I think you should also keep a closer look at what is going on your country. Trump is no better .
4
Kellyanne Conway framed the decline in an economy of words. In response to a question about false statements, she responded we offer alternative facts. The essence of democracy is rational thought applied to provable facts. Despots of all stripes begin by destroying or at least disabling the truth, eroding public confidence in government institutions and the press. Turkey and Egypt lock em up, jailing journalists. In Russia they murder them. In the US from the bully pulpit Trump mocks and attacks the media to wild cheers at recent rallies. It is happening here, what is wrong with America?
237
As pioneering psychologist Sigmund Freud pointed out, people, contrary to their self image, are not primarily rational beings.
What is wrong with America, and/or Europe is simply the flight from rationality and the surrender to short sighted emotional reactions. This is nothing new, but is only now clearly in focus.
Humanity has always been thus. Fear, anger and desire are the rule. Patience, careful analysis, calm deliberation and thoughtful debate the exception.
Science could have developed centuries sooner. Even when it did, there was emotionally based opposition. Scientists and intellectuals then and now, were in the minority.
Science has brought us technology, but when people don't like the consequences of how we use that technology we get anti-science; most people live in the politically manipulated TV cartoon presentation of reality, not the complicated truth that requires study, analysis and a rational experimental approach to manage.
22
What is wrong with America is Trump and the Republican Party.
12
The experiment of democratic system of government has a short history about 250 years - very short time in the civilizational story of the world. In wealth creation, the success of the democracy and success of technology are intermingled and contributions of free elections to wealth creation is not known. But recent technological break through has shown that wealth creation has nothing to do with Democracy, China has created unprecedented wealth without democracy. So let us decouple the West European economic miracle from democracy - it is technology stupid.
Question is what is the value of Democracy - equal voting right. How good is this right - Plato thought it was a stupid idea. The assumption behind this right is the equality of human rational mind. This has been found weak, mind is not rational and data does not show equality, it shows uniqueness. Neuroscience now talk about - Philosophy in the flesh or Intelligence in the flesh. Emotions plays greater role on human decisions and basic human emotions are animal emotions. Wealth can not make a human divine unless it is practised. Wealth provides more opportunities for animal emotions. The fascism and tribal tendencies we notice in democratic policies is the reflection of uncontrolled emotions. We need framework to control it and guide the emotions to proper direction - democracy does not provide that tool. In the long run, technology will destroy the democracy.
My starting point is a comment by Meredith NY that I cannot improve on. She aske Krugman why he only names the countries in Europe with the most severe problems.
Krugman ends with: "The point is that what’s wrong with Europe is, in a deep sense, the same thing that’s wrong with America. And in both cases, the path to redemption will be very, very hard."
We have here the familiar problem, the USA is a country with a president, Europe is not. Should a Europe-USA comparison be supplemented by a comparison of best European countries with single US states or regions. I would like to see such, for example Sweden - New England.
See Meredith in print at about 2:30 EDT (10th reader recs) for the full list of "better in Europe"
Sweden has UHC that beginning in late January was able to offer me the best of everything starting with a visit to my local clinic and ending with good news on 5/21 from pathologists' reports. Since I am 86 I did not have to pay a single "krona", not even 100 SEK check in fee that most pay. Along the way, one colonoscopy and two gastroscopies parts of which I could watch on the monitor. I liked best the 2d gastro, carried out by a nurse practioner.
No forms to fill out. Reasonable waiting times. Fine oral communication after each. Then today 5/22 I log in to my personal patient journal and read reports by the specialists.
Tell me if even one New England state can provide the counterpart of that?
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
3
myself - forgot to note that the first specialist got pathology report on a growth in upper colon, no cancer and the second got report on 5 samples from suspected Barrett tissue, no cancers.
I am wondering whether Dr. Krugman and fellow leftists have played a role in this whole mess. As far as I remember, he was promoting the anti Europe party of Syriza that eventually formed a government with the rest of fascists (ANEL) and I don't remember any articles pointing out the sadistic joke of coalition government between the so-called progressives and a bunch of far right clowns (literally). I do remember though that he was actively pushing for the voluntary ousting of Greece from EU. We (Greeks) demand an apology for this unethical behaviour and we expect more from the liberal elites of US. Therefore, I don't trust that this article is as romantic as the author wants to present. I fear that there are other interests in play.
1
Europe's problem is that they are still looking to the USA to save them. Again and again
1
It's the old story: rob a people of hope and dignity and they turn into a pack of snarling animals. America is no different. What surprised me in the people I thought I knew was how little self-respect they had to begin with.
2
Blame yourself for the tyrant visited on the US, Mr. Krugman, and blame the others on the Times, who supported a false candidate like Hillary who understandably lost respect of the the people, when we had an honest man, Bernie Sanders posing an agenda that had the answers for our country's ills.
5
The veering of countries toward the right and into fascist movements is a disgrace, but perhaps not unexpected as the elites forgot about the need to have a suitable social safety net, angering many that felt left behind. Our politicians, although elected by the democratic vote, are subservient to their rich donors, neglecting real needs of a large segment of the population. Of note, Trump's rein is sustained by subdued republicans to his abuse of power, dereliction of duty by being idle ever since the terrible tax cuts for the corporate elite. Insofar Europe is concerned, the Euro may have been a good experiment in showing that different countries with their own political agenda cannot abide by the rigors of output by their more prosperous, and disciplined, brethren. Unless there is a mechanism to replace the chance to devalue their currency, things will falter and a reversal foreseen. Plus the fact that fascism seems alive and well, a punch in the eye of solidarity, the strength of the European Union. I guess some folks, blinded by arrogance, cannot appreciate all the goods that justice and peace allow...until they lose it. As Einstein said, human stupidity is always in ample supply.
1
There are a million Americans online every day fulminating about evil Trump is destroying democracy and even speculating that we're already living under fascism. Yet they would be silenced if that were true and are allowed to continue because we live in an amazingly free, tolerant society. I expect a Nobel laureate to have a better sense of history and context.
Trump has tried multiple times to order the USPS to raise Amazon.com's shipping rates. He pretends it's because the USPS loses money when they ship for Amazon, which is a lie.
The real reason is because Amazon's CEO, Jeff Bezos, also owns the Washington Post, which every day is reporting factual based news shining a light on Trump's corrupt and anti-democratic actions as president.
Actions like trying to use an agency of the federal government to intimidate the free press.
At the risk of stating the obvious - there is no such place as Europe. The US was a relatively homogenous place when it became a Federal entity. If was today a collection of states I doubt that unification would be easy.
Describing the wish of disparate people not to join a political entity to which they feel no tribal connection as the product of 'Dark Forces' once again highlights the arrogance of the elites who feel they know better. It's those who seek to impose their views on the majority who are the fascists.
1
I am slightly surprised to learn a progressive and left-leaning journalist like Paul Krugman espousing a fiscal ideology dear to right-wingers like Salvini i.e. that joining the Euro has been Europe's ultimate disaster: if it weren't so Italy would be a lot worse off than Greece.
The problem resides more in a policy of false expectations delivered by former Berlusconi's governments with its Bossi (former Salvini's political boss)-Fini bill devised absurdly on the following proviso: let immigrants come in droves from everywhere provided they have a steady job (a must for citizenship) - an oxymoron in its own right, how do you hold a job if you are fleeing from poverty, war, and desperation?
More to the point: the League won hands down because of its racism and xenophobia created through a wicked pact between organized crime and League's henchmen supervising this non-stoppable exodus especially from Africa and the Middle East playing easily in its hands, hypocritically accusing left-leaning administration of not protecting borders well enough and terrorizing Europe of an Islamic invasion controlled by the same people the the League wants to expel.
Will that lead into a "one-party autocracy" even in former fascist Italy? Difficult to predict, but it must be born in mind a significant part of Five Star Movement voters come from center-left, and I suspect that faction will not go down easily with a pseudo neo-fascism dogma looming in the offing.
2
The reason we are where we are isn't because democracy is failing--it's because capitalism along with its ugly brother, moneyed- authoritarianism needs to be alloyed to another type of political belief, notably socialism. Second, the "European project" was meant to mean exactly that: European. Not African, not middle eastern, not Japanese, not Brazilian. And no, the event horizon of the Euro was not the joyful concept you make it out to be--but yes, Brussels and Germany did encourage spending--investing I think was the word at the time--for those countries who were hit the hardest. Democracy isn't dying. But it does need to be branded with new ideas and visions. Just as naked capitalism does, as we are now realizing. What needs also to happen is much of the world catching up to not just the 21st century, but the 20th century.
Krugman readily acknowledges how wrong the whole political establishment was and is on fiscal and economic policy, yet fails to mention the other big thing they are completely wrong about: Enabling (muslim) mass immigration. While a huge majority of European citizens, and even most national governments(!) oppose it, it was nonetheless imposed by a mentally deranged Germany and the E.U. institutions molded by Germany. The government of a single country, plus the unelected, quasi-authoritarian E.U. cadres, imposed and keep imposing a policy on the continent that will change it completely and is already irreversible. And this blatantly against the express will of the people.
Few people really want to align with Russia, or worse yet Trump's America. But where else can a person completely betrayed by the so-called liberal establishment (which has become very illiberal in its doctrinal demands) turn to? We need all the help we can get to rid Europe of Merkel and her traitorous ilk. The successes of Orban and now in Italy offer a small glimpse of hope.
(And if media coverage made you think that the 'migrant crisis is over', think again. More people are still flooding in, just at a slower pace. And more importantly, virtually none of the 'refugees' leave again - even those hundreds of thousands denied asylum under our extremely generous laws. They are legally required to leave, but don't - and deportations are virtually non-existent for lack of political will.)
3
"Meanwhile our centrists, along with much of the news media, spent years in denial about the radicalization of the G.O.P., engaging in almost pathological false equivalence."
Preach it, Brother Paul. But I'm afraid that you are wrong when you say "spent." The media and insider "centrists" continue, every day, to deny and obfuscate the Republican Party's open embrace of white supremacy and abandonment of every governing norm - as well as their ongoing assault on the right to vote of every American who they don't think deserves the franchise.
2
Oh, oh. It looks as though the Europeans have seen The Professor's Social Democracy Nirvana...and said "phooey!" As if this analysis isn't wrong enough, he then COMPLETELY misreads the current situation:
"This depression was made worse by an elite consensus... that the solution was draconian austerity..." In fact, the political base of austerity was not the Elites, but the German WORKING CLASS, who, oddly enough, balked at giving away their taxes to people whose workweek was 10% shorter than theirs. That was the genesis of the current wave of "populism."
So, in the end, Krugman is left befuddled, surprised that the Liberal politics he's lobbied for in America has so blatantly failed when put in practice in Europe. It looks the Politics of Envy is not a long-term program. And Krugman is left caterwauling that "There have always been dark forces in Europe (as there are here)." You know, like that “vast right-wing conspiracy” that keeps winning election after election in the U.S.
1
"Very Serious People in Washington were obsessed with … entitlement reform."
I'd say this statement sort of says it all. Report the same story, but strip out the Washington centric political language, and it would be read something like, "Uncompromising pro-corporate profit politicians are enacting policy that diminishes the public's chances at earning a pension. No institution or person representing the average citizen and employee is at the table in Washington anymore."
The term "entitlement reform" is a clever political language invention (voter, we are not making your chance at earning a pension disappear, we are just "reforming" the system). Worse is the "very serious people" part. I know that Paul uses this tongue in cheek, but shallow and unaccountable politicians long ago became portrayed as honest and serious in media that no longer resembles journalism in the public's interests (just the two parties interest exist). Any democracy and the public's real interests have no chance in heck.
The point is that US political language and news is at such a corrupt point I feel I'm living in an Orwellian novel. I think it's hopeless unless this corruption falls first that democracy and real representation will return.
172
i think Krugman's points are right, but I agree that his language is sort of arcane, which this writer has made clear in trying to clarify some of the very words I found confusing.
1
It is marvelous to finally see Dr. Krugman assign some blame to American “centrists” for the state of the US. I only wish that Dr. Krugman had brought this analytical sharpness to the last American election style or perhaps at least offered a “mea culpa” for relentlessly supporting a deeply unpopular right-of-center candidate cut very much from the “Eurocrat” mold. As it is, the lack of self-reflection here undermines the messenger, if not the message.
1
I largely agree with Sunscreen Al, but... I agree that globalization and automation have played a role. But more important is winner-take-all capitalism. Corp profits soar; GDPs worldwide grow; the rich buy tax breaks from legislative brothels, undercutting investment in both human and physical infrastructure so necessary for widespread prosperity; tax-cut manics don't use any of the riches to help those hurt by globalization and automation. Now sooo little of GDP gets to the average citizen. Little by little, the powerful have undermined the level playing field which is absolutely necessary for capitalism to work. Fascists, populists and authoritarians know how to exploit the resulting anger and desperation.
In poll after poll immigration and Islamist-inspired terrorism are cited - more than unemployment - as top concerns of European citizens. Neither feature in this analysis yet both are important to understand the absolute failure of European elites... and American ones too.
3
Paul this is unusually dark for you. I hope you’re wrong. I believe together we can do better. Remember trump was explicitly rejected by a majority of voters.
1
Great phrase- "prestige of a European elite committed to democratic values." Sounds much like America's founding fathers. Where have they gone?
"What happened after the financial collapse of 2008? There was evidence that speculative actions of the big banks caused the collapse. How many bankers were jailed, or even prosecuted? That's right, none of them! And why were they not subjected to the rule of law, like the rest of us? They effectively own our politicians."
there is nothing wrong with speculation in the private sector. that is a mainstay of Capitalism. fyi the government encouraged this speculation in order to get banks to lend to low income groups. what is wrong is government bailouts under the guise that the whole economic system would collapse without bailouts. these banks should have been allowed to disappear or broken up.
instead because of the government bailout our children and future generations will be burdened with unsustainable debt which will lead to inflation and continued deterioration in the purchasing power of the $US.
unfortunately people in general and particularly nyt readers believe that a dose of socialism is good for the economy. when economic conditions go south they believe that more socialist policy of regulation and government intervention will save the day. the result is calcification of the economy and little or negative growth
and perhaps collapse as in the former USSR(soviet union)
and most recently starvation in Venezuela.
1
Bernard Lewis' obit is in the Times. I am sure it was not original but one of the points he made about the failure of societies built on oil revenues.....among many......was that by not taxing the man on the street for government services the masses stopped caring about where government revenues went. Throughout Africa and South Asia we see government kleptocracy as the standard and we are starting down the same path. We in the US and now in Europe as well have a very low rate of voting. Practically speaking we are run by an autocracy of lawyers and MBAs. If all Americans paid a realistic tax rate they might end up being more interested in voting. If all Americans paid a realistic tax rate they just might look at something like the trillion dollar war budget as being unreasonable and the government revolving door to Wall Street. They just might demand better government....by force if necessary.
The internet and social media have created powerful tidal forces in local societies that are much more powerful than the weak institutional attractors that have historically held us together. It doesn't help that the so called elites have universally been revealed as self-serving, lying, amoral and undemocratic in their behavior, even in the best of times. There is no redemption in the sense of a return to something that used to work in the past. That's a good thing. Institutional racism has undermined everything America says it holds dear and our over-consumption of everything and blasé lack of regard for the consequences has led the western democracies to the precipice of destroying the planet that gives us life. Something new must emerge, either now or out of the ashes later, and yes it will be very, very hard.
Dr. Krugman is more hopeful about our future than I am. He envisions a very, very hard path to redemption in our country. I no longer even entertain that possibility, while contemplating just how far and how fast this country will fall. The entire post WW II democracy movement is crumbling and the fascists are at the gate, as they have always been.
The problem in the US is the GOP Congress and the Trump White House and the Roberts-Gorsuch Supreme Court.
These arms of government aren’t doing their jobs, but are instead following the dictates of a handful of billionaires who are in fact completely nuts. However, they have managed to put together an extremely capable propaganda machine and taken over more than half the State Legislatures. Meanwhile the sane billionaires were too busy to notice, and roughly half the voters have been lobotomized.
2
Something else to consider is the absence of a boogeyman to rally against and create some semblance of unity. Russia has changed its communist clothes and is not the same recognizable threat it once was. And China has veiled the true nature of its regime behind a facade of capitalism, hiding its basic anti-West sentiments.
Who is the boogeyman now? The 'other', anything that does not reflect your core values and/or threatens your security. Immigrants, Muslims, the opposing political party, people who don't think like you or look like you or act like you, even former allies. And in the process we eat each other, turn against each other and ultimately destroy what we had and what made us special.
We've become our own boogeymen.
2
Nothing here about European demographics and population collapse over the next 100 years, and the corresponding influx of Muslims and growth of Muslim communities. I see a really dark future here that will not be brought about by Hungary's Fidesz, Italy's Five Star Movement, or Marine Le Pen. But Paul Krugman thinks I have it all backwards. I really hope he is right but fear that he is not.
3
When the Euro was coming into being , in numerous conversations with my european friends I heard over and over again a pride in creating a currency that they expected to defend them from the " american dollar " . They viewed the dollar as a global force which they as individual nations could not compete with. The Euro was going to redress the situation and they were expecting to be victorious. In addition to the Euro, they were going to create a new Europe, one so powerful that America would have to stand up and take notice.
The problem they pushed aside was, as we well know is that, " all politics is local " and in Europe in the past local political solutions included currency manipulations. Thanks to a reluctance to maniulate the euro it has remained under the control of technocrats, blind to the consequences of their decisions.
Thanks to technocrats we have Brexit and the rise of right wing nationalists that are pushing for a return of fiancees and politics to the local level. This movement threatens the post world war two economic order and should it collapse possibly usher a global depression…yes Europe is very important and we should not stand idly by as it collapses into fascism …again !
It had been a long time since Professor Krugman had published his habitual rant about the Euro . It is true that admission to the common currency (and, for that matter , the EU ) was, for a number of countries, a political and not an economic calculus . Weak and mismanaged economies obviously suffered most from the financial crisis .
But to link the Euro to the current rise of extremism in Europe seems to me to be quite an overreach . Extremes, both to the left and the right, have existed in Europe and, for that matter, worldwide for a very long time, from French Sans Culottes to Nazis, not to exclude, of course, Bolsheviks and Fascists . But the only countries where these movements seem close to attaining positions of real power are precisely countries who, historically, have welcomed authoritarian, autocratic -- and eminently corrupt -- governments . Austria, Poland, Hungary, Italy to a certain extent, all have long histories in this respect . Germany, of course, is the exception . There, as in most other European countries, extremism exists but is kept in check both by the resilience of institutions and the natural social conservatism of most voters .
The one country Paul Krugman did not mention, and where democracy is clearly most at risk of being subverted by its own government, is the United States . With trump in the White House and the Freedom Caucus actually in charge of Congress (and an increasingly retrograde Supreme Court) the future looks bleak indeed .
Europe didn’t recover all by itself, the Marshall Plan played a large role.
Dr. Krugman, your analysis is scary and a bit off point. I think (have hope that is) that our institutions are stronger than those on Poland and Hungary. The anti-refugee and immigrant sentiment in Italy is on par with our own. The problem here and on the Continent is that good people also want power and are willing to throw away their scruples for it. The Senate majority leader did the country no service in not holding a vote on Obama's Supreme Court pick, and ushered in the final nail in the "we're all in this together" coffin. Ryan threw the last shovel of dirt on it.
Our leaders refuse to be honest with the public and find real solutions to our economic issues.
I pray we don't become more like Europe, but as those of us who pray know, God delivers in his own time, not ours.
European Community is here to stay. No matter what . The only thing that makes me wonder is what is going to happen with the dollar. It has been so weak against euro for a long time.
You may be right. On the other hand, we the people can change your concern by voting party centrists. Both extremes do not offer long term workable solutions. Vote for folks who have demonstrated integrity and have a record of using facts to develop policy. Ideology is full of empty promises and demonizes the other side which has landed us in this position.
Economists and other “elites” have made ordinary citizens the subjects of failed experiments. Globalization was to improve all our lives — remember the columns about how low wage labor would move offshore, freeing the US to focus on innovation and design, which would lead to higher paying jobs for all? A single European currency would create a united economy, better for everyone? Immigration automatically leads to growth? Too big to fail, which turned into too connected to be held accountable? And then the pundits are surprised, frankly just shocked, that the populace has a knee jerk reaction in a completely different direction.
Many failed policies have brought the US and Europe to this state, but our economists, elites, and politicians are never accountable for anything. They just bang on indicting us when things don’t work out their way. There are many things about President Trump that I do not like, but over time, I’ve shifted to a grudging agreement about immigration, trade, and these multinational agreements that are really just wealth redistribution. What we’ve been doing isn’t working out for many people in the US and Europe (yeah, yeah we are all racist) so maybe we need someone like Trump to break us out of this loop. If our politicians had been smarter, we’d have had candidates with the good things Trump brings and less of the bad.
2
The West has become the last refuge for the poor of the world. Does China or Russia accept poor immigrants? I just returned from Russia, and though they bemoan a low fertility rate, I did not see any black or brown faces there.
How many poor, uneducated immigrants can the West absorb?
When my great-grandparents immigrated to Canada and the US from Ireland and England they came here through family connections. There were no social services. They relied on family support to get them through the initial phase of adjusting.
Obviously, now, in our enlightened society, we expect to provide relocation services, education, healthcare and housing for refugees and immigrants.
There is a backlash against progressivism which I believe is part of this immigrant issue.
When I think of the poor, suffering souls throughout the world, it pains me to wonder how we can help them all.
1
Mr. Krugman's misinterpretation of unfolding conditions in Europe (and the USA) remind me (in a limited, and only partially tongue-in-cheek way) of a comment Benjamin Disraeli once made about a political opponent: He was, Disraeli said, a man distinguished for his ignorance. He had one idea, and it was wrong. Mr. Krugman risks earning a similar distinction of having one wrong idea, because he is interpreting politics on both side of the Atlantic through the single distorted lens of progressive liberalism. It is not that fascism is so much on the rise again in Europe, than that his preferred political ideology, which only runs on borrowed (or stolen?) capital, has run its course and collapsed under its own unsustainable weight. His view of conditions in the USA seems to suffer from the same perceptual and interpretive problem as Hillary. He sees the failure of his beloved ideology and blames Trump. But he need look only in the mirror to see the source of the current political trouble. Until liberal progressives like Krugman repent of their hubris and stop blame-shifting, politics on both sides of the Atlantic will continue to suffer from the ignorance of their one, wrong idea.
1
The President of this country is trying to destroy the nation's law and order agency and he has the support of the majority party and Europe is in trouble because two less important nations Poland and Hungary with short democratic traditions are moving in an authoritarian way and it's Europe that's in trouble? In the meantime; Great Britain is coping quiote well with Brexit, in France Macron has adopted a center strategy that is working, Spain is getting out of a challenge to its integrity. Scotland is not asking for independence anymore. Ireland is thriving economically. Germany is stable. Paul you should know better; every time things are bad in the US; Europe is worse. A struggle is going on in Europe but they don'tr have the closest approximation to a dictator with a majority of the legislature.
Prof. Krugman undervalues cultural factors which are just as important - if not more so - than the economy. The crucial mistake that has turned Europe to the right was Germany’s decision to accept refugees and migrants from Syria and Afghanistan. Sorry to be blunt, but Europe does not want Muslims. Demanding that it accepts our Constitution with regard to religious tolerance flies in the face of history. For centuries, Hungary proudly saw itself as the bulwark of the Christian West against the Ottoman Empire. Do you want them to give up their historic national identity? Not going to happen. Do you want Poland that had fought for national independence (intimately tied to the Catholic Church) since the 18th century to embrace multiculturalism? Not going to happen. Do you want countries of Eastern Europe that were fed the diet of “internationalism” by the USSR to compromise their sovereignty? Not going to happen. Unless these historical undercurrents are accepted and understood, the EU is going to fragment even further.
2
So now we know that the party of personal responsibility, Republicans, was never about individuals making the “right” choices. It was always about a society wherein personal responsibility is defined and enforced by a few at the top – fascism being the preferred form in all matters economic. However, this is at odds with another Republican favorite - a smaller, less powerful central government. Further, Euro-phobic Republicans long for an economic system also embraced by countries in Europe. So many conflicts this Republican Party has.
Spain has lost a generation, the people I grew up with. The vast majority are doing much, much worse than their parents did, particularly outside the big economic centers. Most of the people my age 35-45, make do thanks to mum and dad. Who knows what will happen when they go. And it's nearly the same in much of Europe.
2
Mr. Krugman’s political economic observations, clear-headed as always, might nevertheless benefit from at least one psychoanalytic insight—a half-truth at best, but at least a half truth—namely, that authoritarians attempt to destroy that which they cannot control. The waves of change that Europe has undergone since euro unification, combined with massive immigration (and one should mention the perhaps even more massive technological and scientific revolutions fluorishing throughout the world) have brought authoritarianism and its seductiveness out into the open. It ain’t just economics that have stripped the clothes off the bodies of authoritarians and made them supposedly desirable. Nakedness, in itself, is not genuinely seductive.
Contemporary right-wing movements (including the Republican Party) are waging a war on democratic decency. That war is massive and it’s pornographic. it has happened before and Europe, America, the whole world, needs to get down to work. What authoritarians attempt to engender in us is a sense of helplessness and shame at being naked, like them. What we need to do is act. Our sense of decency is about being clothed in democratic institutions. It’s also about knowing and caring who we are and acting accordingly. In a legitimate alternative translation of a famous book: “In the beginning was the deed.”
Most of the commenters in this section understand the problem. That is exciting. There is an emerging consensus among educated voters that the problem with our democracy is its inequality. We need to remedy that. I have not been to Poland and I don’t know how you do it there. But I have a pretty good idea what we need to do in the United States. We need to get the money out of politics. We need to defeat the plutocracy. We need to restore democracy so that one person gets one vote. We need the majority to rule. We at makeitfair.us are working for that. There are dedicated people all over the United States trying to restore our democracy and remove the plutocracy. Come and join us. We can do it
Mr Krugman
The creation of the European Union was a ill-conceived rush job reflecting policymakers' woeful ignorance of certain countries' history and peculiar cultures.
Case in point, Poland. All facts point to traditional Western values of tolerance and modernity ending at the German-Polish border when one considers the threat to secularism Poland's current regime represents today. The promotion of traditional roles for women and hostility towards LGBTQ issues would not look out of place in other countries hostile towards secularism, such as Russia, Turkey and Iran.
I really do not think that Eastern Europe in its current mindset has its place in the EU as planned by tolerant leaders in Paris and Berlin. The ugly spectre of Oriental despotism is simply too present in Poland and Hungary, a factor which may partially explain why Poles are the object of so much rejection in Great Britain in recent years....
I think Krugman describes the symptoms well, but he and I probably disagree strongly on the disease causing the symptoms. People want something to believe in and a cause worth giving their resources, whether taxes, time, or even life to. The West has been destroying its own culture for years by:
1) massive immigration
2) political correctness
3) self flagellation over colonialism or racism
4) low birth rates
5) post-modernist nihilism
6) identity politics
7) and bad math...whether it's Republicans when it comes to tax policy or the Left when it comes to a blatant lack of understanding about worker:retiree/pensioner/non-worker ratios
1
It wasn't just the common currency, but implementation of a common currency without the political and financial backstops necessary to make it work for everyone except the financial elites.
3
In 2005, Voters in EU countries were asked to vote in referendums on a new EU Constitution. Voters in France and the Netherlands rejected it - at which point voting in Poland, the Czech republic, Portugal, Denmark, and the UK was suspended. Because voters were rejecting it, their votes were taken away altogether- and the constitution was ratified via parliaments. In addition to everything that Mr. Krugman writes - I would add that this continual eroding of national autonomy - and the silencing of voters wants (because Brussels always knows better) has a lot to do with it. If the only alternative to the heavy handedness of the EU bureaucracy is populist leaders -then that is where people seem to be heading. All Politics are local.
5
The common currency,the Euro, of the European Union was, and is still, a great experiment . This separation of monetary and fiscal policy across so many developed nations had never been done before and was almost certainly poised to exacerbated problems in many countries in the union.
The inability of the national governments to coordinate both fiscal and monetary policy in times of crisis can only lead to big problems. The difficulty in Europe was that the monetary policy needs of the many different economies diverged and no single monetary policy could work for all.
An experiment doomed to fail in times of crisis. It was not the cause of many of the issues in European nations, it just made matters worse for some.
1
"When the Berlin Wall fell, a political scientist I know joked, “Now that Eastern Europe is free from the alien ideology of Communism, it can return to its true path: fascism.” We both knew he had a point."
Trump's election and many of the actions he's taken so far point to that same conclusion for the U.S..
The side we fought on in WWII was not based upon the purely ideological, altruistic grounds that the haze of time and nostalgia has lulled us into believing.
There was a very strong, quasi fascist vein in this country at the time WWII began and Trump is using all of his powers to tap what still remains of it for his own survival.
119
A great example of this is his campaign slogan. It's not original to him....
4
Your final paragraph brings up a vital point. The average American is completely unaware of the fact that Hitler had many prominent fans, enablers and financiers in this nation right up until we entered the war, and in a few cases even after that. Henry Ford and Charles Lindbergh are a couple of examples.
12
"Henry Ford and Charles Lindbergh are a couple of examples."
Yup.
Unfettered Capitalism makes some strange bedfellows, it just can't help itself, and morality isn't exactly on it's "A" list, either. It's prime directive is "survival" at any cost, and it has no shame.
Kind of like another guy that's been in the news quite a bit.
One common element in the US and most of Europe (and Iceland - don't know about Hungary) is financial deregulation over the last decades. This is what caused the crash of 2008 in a very straightforward way (it wasn't really "capital flow" in Europe - the bubble and crash happened in the US and UK also). The bailout of big banks by the Fed and Treasury and failure to punish those who masterminded the bubble has generated considerable resentment against the party establishments as well as big banking and finance (TARP was put over mainly with Democratic votes in Congress). Banking and finance are doing great in the US and not bad in Europe. People are looking for politicians who will really take their side against the interests of banking and finance and big corporations who are always looking for ways to cut wages. If the "liberal" parties don't put up such politicians, voters will turn to charlatans.
8
For once I disagree with the great Mr. Krugman. This move to populism being seen all over the world isn't caused by mismanagement by elites. It's about fear and hopelessness experienced by the middle class and poor due to automation and globalization. No government, no matter how well run, could stop these forces. Krugman tries to push some of the blame on the Euro but notes himself that a recession of democracy is occurring in countries not bound to the Euro.
To add fuel to this fire, news sources that fit one's personal requirements are now freely available. Most people can't discern manipulation of facts. Those who are skilled or educated enough to recognize propaganda refuse to do so because of their deep set fears and cognitive dissonance. A fact that counters their assumptions is ignored or the topic is changed. Simple solutions to complex problems offer hope. These types looks to a "strong man" leader to break down the system and solve their problems.
5
Paul, since you cannot be expected to know italian history in detail, let me fill you in.
Italian debt grew steadily from the 1970s on due to the populist (yes, not a new thing) policies of the Christian Democrats and the nominally socialist PM Craxi: bloated civil service, inefficient public-owned companies and early retirement as a way to give patronage, reduce unemployment and keep social control. Berlusconi sped up along the same road, and the Prodi intermissions in his twenty years of government did not keep us from the looming precipice we finally reached in 2011. The governments since, especially starting in 2014 with energy and management skills in place, brought us back to economic health (1 million more private sector jobs, debt/GDP finally decreasing and more) enough that most people have forgotten where we had gotten.
Since the media are much worse than those in the US you rightly scold for the 2016 elections, more than half of the population was easily convinced that: any problems came out the last four years, we are swamped by criminal immigrants, they deserve to have (pick your favorite) lower taxes, guaranteed income, earlier retirement, etc. Sounds familiar? Back to populism we go with some economic insecurity, social entitlement and fraud. Good government is the exception, not the rule.
About the euro: Italy exports much more than it imports, the euro might have been even better for Germany but it is certainly very good for Italy as well.
2
So, what is the path? Tell us about the need for equality in a healthy and united society. We've been led by the few and the few have benefited at the expense of the many.
The elite of the world, including this country, are doing fine. Actually, they're rocking and buying up all they can. These systems create a relatively small, very rich class. Whether Reagan or Bush, Clinton or Obama, this has held true. And Trump has pushed it into overdrive. So where now?
Taxation must be front and center. A wealth tax must be a focus. But, no, we're not ready. The elite probably want fascism, because that will protect their ill-gotten gains. And, the average citizen either doesn't understand economics, or doesn't care, focusing on their personal needs at the moment.
Compassion and love are central to economics. If they are not, we reap the whirlwind.
1
The adoption of the Euro had the seeming appeal of simplicity, and very few people in the European Union bothered to wonder (a) whether Europe was administratively ready for a single currency and (b) whether Europe really needed one currency.
The temptations for European lender-states to take advantage of borrower-states were probably exacerbated by the Euro, but those tendencies are symptoms, not causes, of Europe’s woes.
The problem with Europe is that it got used to having the United States spend American resources providing much of Europe’s obligation of self-defense. While Europeans got rich, they lost their moral compasses.
Once it became clear that a new American leadership was either too incompetent to protect Europe or was firmly in bed with the enemy, Europeans panicked. The worst, darkest elements of European authoritarianism and bigotry crawled out from under the rock.
Welcome to Hungary.
3
Obviously, Europeans are experiencing the same angst as Americans, and they would not be feeling that way if their political elites had turned their backs to them in favor of immigrants. Over the last decade in the United States, the liberal elite has turned its back to the white working and middle classes in favor of fringe political identities and illegal immigrants. Even African Americans are being marginalized in favor of illegal immigrants. The liberal elite sees its future in the masses swarming across the southern border. In comparison, traditional Europeans are witnessing the erosion of their culture and society by swarms of so-called refugees from the Middle East and Africa, people who have no interest in assimilating, but rather living in separate enclaves, growing resentful, and breeding hate. Liberal progressives in Europe and the United States see this type of thing as progress. Traditionalists, of which I am one, see this as social and moral decay. Americans reclaimed their nationalism in 2016, but there is still much resistance that must be crushed before we can claim total victory. Europe needs to do the same, which it is in Austria, Germany, and Hungary. Traditionalists of the world unite! Reclaim your birthright! Preserve your culture! Succumb to no-one. Thank you.
5
Working class white still are white, and have it better than just about anyone else.
Culture's change, a fact that has been true for centuries. Get over it.
Eastern European memories are long. I don't think there is an economic basis for Poland, Hungary & Slovakia turning toward the right. These are countries that struggled against foreign domination for a millennium & barely survived WWII as nation states. When Bruxelles insisted on them taking in refugees from Islamic countries they remembered Ottoman invasions & despite the economic gains as part of the EU said no.
None of them feel very secure especially with the war in Ukraine unresolved. If Bruxelles wants to save itself, the EU better start looking at the differing perceptions of some of it's members & address their very real concerns. If these nations begin to feel that the EU is becoming another version of Chamberlain in Munich or FDR. at Yalta selling them out they'll be out of the EU.
5
Hillary and Obama's mad wars in Syria and Libya poured immigrants into Europe and helped lower wages. The SDs became conservative parties. Those like Blair were following the New Democrats like Krugman.
The surprise is that the reaction has been so slow and mild as in the US as it has been.
We need to follow Britain back to the creation of a real left wing party.
2
Professor, as a European I can see quite clearly the root of the problems in the continent: a multi-ethnic patchwork can work well in good times but will promptly fission in tough ones. It is easy to blame the "other" for whatever ills we suffer, especially if that other is geographically, linguistically and culturally distinct and segregated. Nationalism in Europe plays the role that nativism and racism play here, only with much deeper roots and mainstream credentials. If the ruling elite will not go along -presto, populism!
The US still enjoys the benefits of a cohesive financial system, a common national consciousness and a measure of political correctness that discourages the worst excesses. But even the best system can be eroded, and erode we do in our current sad Trumpian era.
6
The call of authoritarianism is hard to resist. It promises simple answers to hard problems. It makes promises it can't keep - and automatically looks for scapegoats to explain its failures. It offers security - at the cost of total obedience.
When people are scared, angered, in doubt, they'll turn to strong leaders who promise everything will be all right IF the people place their trust in them. Having lost faith in democratic remedies, rejecting the broader social order in favor of "us versus them" bunker mentality, it's a self-reinforcing process.
And don't forget actors like Vladimir Putin are working to make this happen. He sees a divided west with democracy increasingly discredited as a win for him - as it is. There is never a shortage of would-be oligarchs and autarchs.
"The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity."
5
Mr. Krugman once again fails to mention the failure of Italy and Greece to fulfill their promises of structural reform that were given in exchange for the massive bailouts that occurred after the final crises that began a decade ago. Collecting taxes. reforming early retirement pension schemes, trimming absurd regulations and streamlining bureaucracies were a few of much needed actions to allow economic growth and create long-term jobs that were never enacted.
4
One of the causes of people dissatisfaction not mentioned by Dr Krugman is the accumulation of wealth by the very rich at the expense of the poor, the wager earners and the middle classes. In Australia which boasts full employment, full-time employment is fast declining, replaced by casual work with poor conditions and reduced pay. Wages have barely kept up with inflation, meanwhile the cost of housing and of medical treatment keeps going up. A retiree who 30 years ago, having worked and paid taxes for some 45 years, was assured of pension to live on, is now told that there is no longer such an entitlement. Meanwhile the burden of taxation still falls heavily on the wager earner. Company tax has been reduced and the multinationals hardly pay any tax. The way the system has evolved, it ensures that more and more of a nation's wealth ends up in the bank accounts of the very rich. The poor, the workers and the lower professions feel ever more insecure and betrayed.
14
One of the reasons that the US got off to a good start is that the founders had experience with a level of self government. You can say that Western Europeans did too. But the Eastern Block nations did not. It was a mistake to take them into the EU as equals, simply trading relationships might have been better.
3
The EU tips toward regulation while the US tips toward hands-off. For many years the EU has gotten it right: sharing the wealth with its own working classes and with the former Soviet republics; taking on antitrust enforcement against blatant abuses by, among others, Microsoft and Google. What crippled the EU in recent years were 1) the inability to fairly mediate the conflict between the haves (creditors) and the have-nots (debtors) following the economic collapse; and 2) the immigration fiasco. It's an open question whether the E.U. can recover from that 1-2 punch, but the world will be indescribably worse off if it cannot.
5
The acidic criticism offered by so many commentators on Mr. Krugman's essay seems extraordinarily misplaced.
Mr. Krugman has long been stalwart in his support of the European Union and its underlying ideals as expressed in the EU's founding documents and treaties - the "European project".
His dispute with the EU has always been and remains directed at the faulty structure of the Euro as the "unifying" element of the EU: that is, he takes the position (with which many other eminent economists agree) that, in the absence of a "federalized fiscal and banking" system similar to the American one, the Euro is subject to centralized control and therefore is not viable as the sole currency for all EU member-countries.
Indeed, Mr. Krugman wrote extensively about the single-currency issue during the European economic crisis generated by imposition of "austerity" on all EU members that could not meet the standards required by successful, stable EU member-countries - a crisis that resulted directly from the centralized currency and its control by the latter elitist members.
Commentators who think today's essay by Mr. Krugman was sprung on them without his having given serious consideration to the points of which they complain should return to, and review thoroughly, the many columns he wrote and the even greater number of his postings on his blog, The Conscience of a Liberal, which should be available in the archived pages of The New York Times for the relevant period.
13
“the standards required by successful, stable EU member-countries” What are these “standards” that successful, stable EU member countries have adopted and follow? Why is the euro not viable as the sole currency tor all EU member countries?
Economists, economic analysts and economy articles writers are “barking up the wrong tree” when they assess blame for the mess we’re in to the euro. It is a unit of measure, not a strategic tool. Ditching the euro and reverting to previous currencies is tantamount to redefining a unit of measure. If the distance between Frankfort and Athens – about 1700km – seems to be too long, let’s just increase the length of a kilometre, say by 20%, and then the distance is less – about 1400km. If I want to lose 20kg (and don’t want to change my eating and exercise habits) why don’t I just revalue upwards the definition of the kilogram so that my weight is what I would prefer it be.
Of course no one would accept variations in units of measure. That would render measurements meaningless. And reverting to past currencies would legitimatize, even encourage, the real factors that have led to countries’ economic demises. The belief that a weakening currency can make an economy stronger is like thinking that drinking more can cure a hangover.
1
(continued)
Unless you have lived in a country with a weak currency and experienced the not-so-minor problems that result from a continuing decline in the value of your income and an increase in the cost of your groceries, clothes, and other purchases, you don’t appreciate the difficulties a weak currency produces. You don’t want to save your money because it rapidly loses value. You don’t want to lend money because the repayment will have lost the purchasing power the money lent had. Your pension loses value with time while the costs of the essentials for living go up. If you are a worker your standard of living goes down even as your wages seem to go up.
So why is abandoning the euro proposed as a panacea to Europe’s economic problems? Because it would allow spendthrift, profligate policies to restart, it would stop hated austerity programs that inflame voters, it would allow lenders to rob savers, it would permit managers to get away with the bad decisions they make.
Successful European countries, such as Germany have adopted actions, both personal and governmental, that are sound, lead to improvements in productivity, and eschew self-indulgence. Only when other European countries adopt sustainable growth policies, including the elimination of restrictive labor practices, the prohibition of “bailouts” of failing companies and banks, the extravagant spending on dubious public works projects, the paying off national debts, will they improve their economic situations.
They, the misguided elites including the Clintons on their left flank, won the last half century. That does not mean they will win the next. Focus on what is wrong and FIX IT! There are powerful forces available to take on our health care system's messes, the decline of our education system, and, oh yeah, climate and environmental disruption. It is a battle, and only reason will win it. Look to the Scandinavians for models, but understand our issues and do the hard work necessary to devise solutions.
7
Being a citizen in a democracy is hard work. It requires knowing ones history, thinking about problems, listening to and studying the various solutions being offered from different perspectives, and participating in democratic processes - voting at the vary least. When the people of a country stop doing that work, if they become lazy or complacent and turn to the emotionally satisfying slogans of demagogues rather than the work of reason, democracies fail. There are no if ands or buts - they fail.
18
But if the citizenry is un or under educated it also contributes to a downfall of the Democratic process.
Civics classes are not taught anymore either.
Lazy people are part of the problem but uneducated masses are becoming the majority today. And this is by design or intentional. Keep 'em dumbed down. Ignorant people are easier to control and manipulate.
Strange the author makes no mention to what may well turn out to be the biggest challange facing Europe - Brexit and its consequences. This is a project advanced by a group of ultra English nationalists who are living in a fantasy world dominated by the long dead British empire. In advancing their agenda they are in effect endeavouring to reversing a project aimed at bringing lasting peace to our continent. Prof Krugman's silence is puzzling to say the least.
8
Benjamin Franklin, asked what sort of government the constitutional convention had come up with famously answered, "A republic, if you can keep it."
I fear we cannot. The famed checks and balances do no checking and provide no balance, the leaders are venal, and we mere citizens are helpless in the face of gerrymandering and, often, our own thoughtless complicity.
12
The reason "checks and balances" don't work is that they were aimed at the wrong problem. The founders thought the 3 branches of government would be hostile to each other and try to keep each other in check. In fact the real hostility was between political parties, a concept that hardly existed in the founders' time. They didn't anticipate that a Republican Congress would protect a corrupt Republican president, instead of desiring to hem him in.
1
Historically, Republics are the weakest form of government, easily falling pray for the rich becoming a plutocracy...like the US, where the politicians are the employees of the rich and follow their orders.
The US faced the same crisis under the Articles of Confederation. That is the major reason why Hamilton, Madison and their allies fought so hard to unify the country under a strong Constitution that could enable overriding of the individual states in national fiscal matters. Multilingual, multi-cultural Europe does not seem ready for that. Ethnic identities are still too deeply felt. Hence, a single currency and a unified economy do not work.
8
It just seems to me that many are disregarding the fact that the Greeks were taking Euros out of their bank accounts, and storing the Euros in their homes.
Their fear was that over some week-end their Euros in their bank accounts would become something else. Something worth much less.
But the Euro, the Euro they had confidence in.
The issues were Greek government borrowing of Euros.
But the Euro itself, it has no problem, at least certainly not in the eyes of the people.
5
Agreed for the most part. Having a single currency strengthened both Europe and its its countries. Unfortunately, some weaker economies became highly profligate and ran their economies into the ground forgetting that they had no control over currency values. At the same time, the EU legislative and executive structures got greedy with power and continually shot the moon with budgets and legislation. When combined with being overrun with immigrants, the people rebelled against the elites. Although we have not yet heard the guillotines in Europe or America, rest assured they are being oiled in the background.
The article is interesting but the comments are thoughtful and intelligent. Mr. Krugman has put the question on the table better than others. It is my feeling that we relive some of what happened in the 1930's, feeling vulnerable, wanting champions and leaders to turn back the clock while being suspicious of "liberals" and intelligentsia. Regular people just go about their lives; don't evaluate change; or worry about economies. The "elite" are really oligarchs now, not theorists. They are fabulously rich and powerful and their power is money and the influence of money. Their tool is the head pounding repetition of media, used for the stimulation of product purchase and fads. While journalism is pushed to the shadows of penury. We have been conditioned to be influenced by the ad media and we are, both for products and political thought. (A reality TV star as president?!?) This is like a new middle ages and I think what everyone in this forum worries about is that we will need a new age of enlightenment and a new renaissance, which will be much more difficult than a new election.
24
And entertainment is now the religion of the masses.
Adopting the euro was not and is not the cause of Italy’s economic demise. Italy’s huge public debt is the main factor. However, the euro did not cause this debt, In fact, the euro was adopted twenty years after Italy’s economy started to tank. This deterioration started in the 1980’s when the government’s usual ineffective and often damaging interventions in the economy sapped its previous string of triumphs. Expensive public works projects, very often in the south, wasted oodles of taxpayers’ money. Roads that led nowhere, bridges that were built with no roads connecting to them, hospitals built where there were few patients, airports where no one wanted to go, nationalizations of “essential” business activities and then over-staffing them, often as political payoffs, etc. These are the principal reasons the country is so indebted.
The real causes of Italy’s stagnating economy: ineffective government, labor policies that protect non-productive workers, the cost of bailing out weak financial institutions and state owned enterprises, protected industries stifling competition, selfish citizens, deficient educational systems and self-delusion have to be overcome if the Italian economy is to improve.
15
Blaming it all on a single mismanaged currency is a superficial explanation of the downward spiral of Europe. There are more important factors namely corruption and collusion at the highest levels of governments whose elected officials are owned by greedy corporations and oligarchs. Not much different of what is happening in the US.
7
Europe's decision to adopt a single currency is indeed a primary reason for why individual countries in Europe are economically lagging behind other countries throughout the world.
Forcing Germany and France to keep lagging countries like Greece afloat through monetary policies associated with the euro has held Germany, France and other robust European countries back from realizing their full potential in the world market.
If robust European countries were allowed to flourish without being anchored to economically lagging countries, the trickle down benefits to other European countries would be staggering and far outpace any benefits of all being joined at the hip.
Britain had it right all along...join the EU - but don't let the euro in.
5
When thinking about Greece, cradle of Western civilization, it is necessary to remember the destruction Germany wreaked on her during WWII. Germany should have found a way to repair more of the damage done to a smaller poorer country.
2
Krugman omits another "elite" error, allowing massive immigration, legal and/or illegal, used to drive down wages, erode unions, threaten public order, and increase economic inequality. The public reaction to that is a major part of the political problem he sees.
26
I'm not sure I would lay the erosion of unions at the door of immigration. The tension is labor vs. capital, and capital prospers when labor is weak. The executive suite has been crushing unions for decades. That immigrant labor is cheaper is just frosting on the cake.
15
I have to agree. While there are immigrants who work in the US for less than minimum wage, the vast majority are earning higher than that (even if the work is backbreaking).
I believe a higher minimum wage makes a lot of sense.
Suggestions that immigrant workers are lowering the wage floor by accepting lower wages are no more on point than claiming poor people who earn minimum wages are driving down earnings for everybody. On the contrary, we are in the midst of a low income labor shortage. So what is holding down wages? I'll take Monopsony for $500, Alex.
First thought on reading this post is the population explosion, with climate change, the other elephant in the room. Until and unless we confront both, we cannot hope to continue on this planet.
2
The message that Mr. Krugman is sending can not be ignored. We have voted in politicians across the world who care not for the public but for themselves and ideas that can not be implemented to help all.
The world is on a fast pace downward and there are no brilliant people who can work with these politicians to address this downward spiral.
6
I have to agree with Prof. Krugman that we, in Europe, are in deep trouble, because we're losing the values that were the foundation of the New Europe after World War II. Some great visionaries provided the inspiration and gave hope that never again another war was to take place in Europe.
Our problem is not the Euro, the problem is within us people; it seems that deep inside, we prefer monarchies, and the following of "Leaders", a kind of trend that's sweeping the whole word. The strangest thing is that is taking place in moments where, as a whole, people are living better than ever; however something must be missing for all this new commotion to be taking place. The idea behind these movements is as old as human kind, the ascent of some kind of fascism that will promote and enrich some, and create an even more unequal society.
Plato was right democracies are a speck in the history of human kind. It seems we don't know how to take care of those universal values well resumed in the Constitution of the USA, and the Declaration of Human Rights.
17
My God, your last sentence is SO right on.
It also seems many many people seem to be blind as to what is happening & what is coming.
And the so-called "Elites, Leaders, Oligarchs,etc" seem to believe they are safe behind their little castle walls. Maybe for a time, but they too (though maybe a few will escape for a time) will be swept away by the policies & world they are creating.
With seemingly little thought as to what their children will be facing. Greed & instant gratification all around.
Dr. Krugman, the times I disagree with you are as rare as European central bankers.
However
Your piece today is filled with adjectives instead of economic analysis. And, unfortunately, adjectives such as ‘elite’ and ‘incompetent’ arouse just the emotions the alt-right in Europe (and here) use to overcome rational solutions to Europe’s woes.
The problem in Europe (and here) is a political one, to create a sustainable balance between individual and community rights and responsibilities through democracy. Known solutions for economic problems, such as central banking, have not been implemented in Europe because a democratic power distribution solution is not yet fully sustainable.
The evidence in your piece illustrates this perfectly with the contradictory examples of Greece and Poland, one with the Euro and one not, yet both headed toward the alt-right.
Ironically, the root cause of Europe’s economic woes may not be the Euro, but the other way around. The root cause may be political, and therefore requires a different set of tools to find a solution.
18
This article goes deep but not deep enough. Most disappointingly, Krugman refuses to acknowledge the huge role played by ever-growing wealth and income disparities resulting from "free trade" (which he tepidly supports), the decline of unions (about which he is silent) and regressive tax policies (likewise). Krugman also continues to ignore his own responsibility for the crackdown on freedoms here at home. Namely, Krugman helped elect Trump by supporting neoliberal unelectable Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic primaries.
13
I was about to "recommend" your comment but the last sentence about Clinton spoiled it. Of course she was "electable" and even won by 2 points in the vote, and likely would have won the electoral college too if not for Comey's reopening the e-mail nonsense a few days before the election. She also might have won if some progressives helped her at the end instead of not voting, or wasting votes for silly Jill Stein, or stopping throwing around vague terms like "neo-liberal" to undermine her.
1
Clinton did win the election. But she was deprived of the Presidency by a stupid Constitutional rule called the electoral vote, which was devised two centuries ago to end a temporary feud between New Jersey and Virginia.
What's even wierder is the way people protested the result two days later, as if Trump had stolen the Presidency. Trump has done a lot of destructive things, but the Presidency just fell in his lap.
1
I'd like to include Professor Krugman's final paragraph as the source for my comments. "The point is that what’s wrong with Europe is, in a deep sense, the same thing that’s wrong with America. And in both cases, the path to redemption will be very, very hard.". But the path to redemption in America will be more than very, very hard, it will need to be embarked on.
In America today there seems to be an inertia in process intent on creating more wrong things than with undoing them. And it isn't just the messengers and the messages being forced into our ears and eyes day in, day out, but the delivery of these wrongs seeming to be "you have no choice against me or my administration, we can do what we please and what pleases our supporters" and that citizens, hearing and seeing this said often enough begin to believe it and acclimate themselves to it.
Every day that the current political environment continues, the chances to begin on the road to redemption fade and the wrongs needing correction mount. To wait for the replacement of the sources and the people responsible wastes time and opportunities and will only make the job more difficult. The answer is to begin on the road to righting the wrongs in whatever way is available to each of us now, not to wait until it may be too late.
10
Probably the best example of inertia is the failure of Democrats to even talk about reforming the Electoral College system , which cost them the Presidency. They don't want to admit that the Constitution has serious flaws.
How can we ever right ourselves? I’d like to think our country can become a beacon, by saying no to Russian influence, yes to refugees and, while enjoying an economic boom, spread the wealth by taking back that tax cut and making healthcare universal. I sound like a socialist. And what’s wrong with that?
12
As I watched the progression of the Reagan prion disease (hats off to Charles Pierce) within the Republican Party, which morphed into the more virulent form we know as the Tea Party, and with ever more Americans of all economic stripes but predominately of one color falling under the spell, I realized that reason and evidence would not provide a sufficient bulkhead, that the situation would require a near-systemic collapse in order to adequately demonstrate the danger. Now in my late sixties, until Trump I, admittedly rather selfishly, thought that I would not live to see the worst of it. But now I realize that I am living to see it, and I am fully awake to the horrible realization that I had no idea how bad the situation would become. I am frightened for my country, but I am laser focused on November, because that is all we have at this point. Our government has been highjacked, all three branches.
96
"Remember that in 2010-11, with America still suffering from mass unemployment, most of the Very Serious People in Washington were obsessed with … entitlement reform."
By failing to place entitlement reform in quotation marks you let the Very Serious People frame the argument. It is not about entitlement reform; it is about the destruction of EARNED BENEFITS.
42
I shall never rival Prof. Krugman’s economic insights. But it seems there is another factor complicating liberalism in Western Europe, and that is a dramatic decline in the birth rate.
Before the current refugee crisis there were articles discussing Europe’s plummeting birth rate and the fact that liberal democracies such as Germany, Italy and France would never be able to pay their massive pension obligations without an influx of young immigrant laborers to support their pension systems. This is why Germany had already admitted millions of immigrants from Turkey before the current refugee crisis began.
Angele Merkel is no softhearted lover of foreign refugees; rather she is a pragmatist who does not wish to see her economy overwhelmed by the obligations of a pension system that has too few workers to support it. .
If the US were as pragmatic as Germany, we would welcome an influx of young laborers to shore up our own retirement system. (Rather than engaging in xenophobic rants or harping about “entitlements”). The absence of immigrants to Japan, coupled with their extremely low birth rate, currently threatens to crush their aging and heavily indebted society.
For all of the pressures the Euro has placed on European economies, these may pale in comparison to the pressures of a plummeting birth rate and an insufficient labor base to support ever burgeoning pension obligations.
18
Bringing in ever more young people from outside to support an aging population may look like a good short term solution to but it quite obviously raises the question of what you do when these young people age in turn, bring in even more people to shore up the base?
This is basically the logic of a Ponzi scheme and like all Ponzi schemes, it is not a viable long term solution to the combined issues of low birthrates and increased life expentency.
As it happens, given that the world is already seriously overpopulated, we should actually welcome a decline in birthrates and since today we live not only longer but also healthier lives, the obvious solution to the retirement issue is for people to work longer. Again, this is actually happening and when you combine this with the potential to further increase female workforce participation rates and the fact that automation is replacing ever more jobs,
both low skilled and medium skilled, there is no obvious case for mass immigration of people who, because of their low skills levels and large families, actually cost more to society than they contribute.
That's just the economic argument and when you get into issues of social cohesion, the cement that holds our societies together, the arguments for mass immigration of people coming from hugely different cultures is weaker again.
12
I’d say the problem is not a plummeting birth rate, it’s an ever-rising population in a world of limited resources. The laws of physics are clear: as matter/energy can neither be created nor destroyed, the quantity of all matter is fixed. As the population expands, that means less of everything to go around.
For all the mocking of the concept of limits to growth- we’re hitting those limits now. As we run out of arable land and potable water, fights over these increasingly scarce resources will get worse.
13
Michael from Georgia has written an excellent summary of a major problem. His prognosis is grim and there is no way out other than a massive long-term return to high exponential population growth.
I would suggest that there are other solutions. Perhaps these solutions are not mentioned by Michael because the intellectual climate of Georgia would not allow it.
The core of the problem is that most of the earnings of our economy are ordained to go only to a small class of already-wealthy "makers", whose investments are used to make factories and service industries. The workers in those factories and enterprises, the ones who actually make the goods and services, are "takers" because they take a salary and have needs like health and old-age care. Since the only way goods and services can flow to these people is through the salaries of young and healthy workers, the only possible solution is to somehow dramatically increase the number of young workers.
I would submit that our actual need for young healthy workers could and probably will drop dramatically due to AI, robotics, and other technologies. The primary problem, however, is that currently the profits generated by a robot must go entirely to the "maker" of the robot or the AI system. The maker is the wealthy person who invested some of his or her extra wealth into paying for the system's construction. The problem can be solved if the productivity gains from machinery are taxed like those for humans.
1
As always, Professor Krugman does a good job of analyzing the economic/business side of our problems. But he, like most of us these days, forgets the moral side of the equation.
There is no way to build a "economic system for all" with greedy, self-centered cheaters being reported on (and celebrated) endlessly. I wish there were more reporting on those who fight for good like bishop Curry, who presided at the recent royal wedding.
In a nutshell, the essence of bishop Currys sermon was that when we discover love it will be as powerful for humanity as the discovery of fire.
There is no political solution to a fundamentally moral problem. What is missing in Europe and the US is reverence and love for the other. I wish more ink were devoted to the moral side of our difficulties.
15
Well said. Thank you.
A composite explanation of anti-liberal forces everywhere is "people's sense of lost autonomy." The mechanics might vary: in Europe it is partly the Euro w/o common fiscal control; partly immigration - both from within and outside of Europe). In the U.S. it is in part due to globalization. Another huge component - everywhere - is automation: both the industrial kind, and the electronic kind (e.g., disinformation via Facebook, Twitter, Rupert Murdoch, etc). Also, everywhere, the frenetic pace of change makes people feel they have no control over their lives: the 19th century wasn't enough time to digest the industrial revolution that contributed to WWs I & II, and the electronic revolution begun in the 20th century is leading now rapidly to a new horror show.
12
The history repeats itself?
Unless we learn from it.
I haven't seen any claim anywhere that Hungary's recent election wasn't free and fair, so whatever you might think of Fidesz (and their rigging of the courts is especially troubling) they DO represent at least as healthy a democratic process as the rudderless messes in Italy, the UK, France (where the practically unknown Macron represented the "none of the above" choice), and even Belgium.
In Enlightenment Now (and I am a big fan of Dr. Pinker in general) Steven Pinker writes off any attempt at a wide-based popular political movement as "authoritarian populism,"and I get the sense that Dr. K feels the same way.
Why do both of you refuse to even consider the possibility that a popular movement can be anti-authoritarian, that ordinary voters, the 'people,' might have any kind of legitimate hopes and desires beyond those their betters tell them they should have?
The Hungarians, the Poles, the Italians who voted for Five Star, and the Britons who voted for Brexit all want to live like the Swedes and the Danes. They don't want to live like Americans, whose lives are stunted and deformed by the direction of the economy and the government, in complete contempt for the popular will, by the self-serving elites of both parties.
18
"...the Italians who voted for Five Star ... want to live like the Swedes and the Danes."
If you want to live like Swedes and the Danes, you have to tax like them so you can finance the transfers that ensure a decent life for everybody. The voters who went for Five Star and the League are planning to impose a flat tax, which will either decimate public coffers or further impoverish the poorest. They have eschewed a property tax, too.
6
Well, the "popular will" is also in trouble because of the alternate reality promoted in the right wing media as well as in the WH/The Hill.
The Koch brothers have also done a good job with their dirty oil money. Some Enlightenment is needed indeed
.
One has to mention Putin's hand in this. Given his history and involvement in Brexit and US 2016, one has to assume much of the discord is a result of the seeds he has sown.
11
Some space in this column by Professor Krugman should have been spent on how the elites got it wrong - and how they escaped any consequences, while the little people did not. When 2008 came and went, President Obama appointed to office many of the people who had been at center-ice in triggering the crisis. The little people noticed. They noticed in the mid-terms in 2010 and they noticed in the 2016 Presidential Election. The on-going support of the elite's we-know-better philosophy needs to be re-examined. And, Professor Krugman needs to look in the mirror and re-look at how the elite's "alignment" of its policies with its self-interest has continued to lead America astray.
15
Olof Palme, the ex Prime minister of Sweden, killed 1986, once said: "-Politics is the art of what's possible". That's particularly true about Obama who indeed did what was possible. And Obamacare, aka ACA, is a testament to that.
Without question, a common currency for the union which is too strong for the weaker economies of Europe has been a major problem.
So too, the creation of an all powerful, un-elected, rule making bureaucracy has been another millstone around the neck of the union. The Eurocrats in Brussels, with their sweeping powers, have been able to reach into every aspect of European life, form major issues to the minutiae of daily living. This unaccountable elite is anti-democratic in its nature, taking too much power and decision making away from local communities and countries. This has the effect of making average citizens feel marginalized and creating bitterness towards the masters in Brussels and the Union as a whole.
13
Maybe humanity is not ready for democracy - or rather, it wasn't ready when America launched its great experiment in 1776. Our Declaration of Independence and Constitution triggered a world-wide revolution of freedom that has spread for 250 years, looked very good on paper and in academic histories but failed to deliver in a sufficiently practical, fair, uniform, and just manner to peoples everywhere.
Tied together with the technological developments that have allowed everyone to witness how much better 'others' are doing and whom to blame, we've become a world of people who 'know' what we deserve and resent it terribly when we don't get it.
We believe that justice always prevails (in courts, in free markets, and in life more generally) but observe its failures continuously via the internet (even if it is often fake, if too many believe it's true - what's the difference?). At the same time not enough of us believe that we, individually have roles to play and work to do in making this experiment work.
I fear we're just not ready. That begs the question you've been asking - what then? Mayhem and war?
8
That one view that highly debatable and indeed debated. Another view is that European integration is based on sharing wealth and on fiscal honnesty. What we currently observed in Europe is a bailing-out of sovereign debt all but in name through interest free loans and young people moving adound and working together more than ever before. The European project has an implementtion that has messy aspects but it works pretty well -espe ially at ensuring peace.
7
Dear Professor Krugman:
1. Your stance is: "The Euro is bad, a result of a disastrous decision."
This is to debate but it is arguable without any doubt.
2. Your second statement is: "Europe is in crisis, due to the Euro."
This looks conclusive and is to debate
3. Your third crucial statement is: "The point is that what’s wrong with Europe is, in a deep sense, the same thing that’s wrong with America." as a result of (abbreviated)
- bad judgement of American centrists,
- mass unemployment,
- denial about the radicalization of the G.O.P., engaging in almost pathological false equivalence,
- America finds itself governed by a party with as little respect for democratic norms or rule of law.
I´m not denying this.
As you have said these effects are happening almost the same way in some Euro countries, Non-Euro countries (where some of these effects are particularly strong) and USA, where all effects are particularly strong in a lot of regions all sharing the Dollar.
Given this the Euro with all it´s flaws cannot be the cause of these effects especially when they have occured the same way in a country that has still the strongest single currency in the world for centuries (US). It´s simply a matter of formal logic.
So you should rexaminate your "The Euro is the reason" premise when you look for the causes of the issues you have selected as topic.
12
Poland, Hungary, and other countries formerly in the Soviet bloc, want no more to be controlled by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels, than they wanted to be controlled by apparatchiks in Moscow.
As for the USA, Dr. Krugman, you've incorrectly framed the problem. It is not the centrism of our elites that is leading to dissatisfaction and a rebellious attitude among much of our citizenry. It is the rampant corruption of our two major political parties, whose politicians are more interested in granting political pay-backs to well-heeled donors, than in doing the work of the American people.
What happened after the financial collapse of 2008? There was evidence that speculative actions of the big banks caused the collapse. How many bankers were jailed, or even prosecuted? That's right, none of them! And why were they not subjected to the rule of law, like the rest of us? They effectively own our politicians.
67
Under the TARP Program, 414 people have been criminally charged, 344 convicted, and 246 sent to prison. Just saying, don’t believe everything you hear on FoxNews. (Source: Sigtarp.gov)
1
World history is largely strong dominators seeking and gaining wealth and power, forming ruling classes, tiny in number compared to the less ambitious (in chasing money and power) masses.
There are examples of societies that care more for all individuals, and these countries are rated at the top for happy, secure citizens, not resenting higher taxes that guarantee child care help, good health care, safety nets and much greater educations. They pay less than we do, it's just in the form of tax. All our separate bills for insurance, education, etc are higher than say Denmark, Finland, and other Scandinavian nations with higher taxes.
In these countries,their citizens have compassion for their fellow citizens. In Michael Moore's Who Will We Invade Next, Scandinavians ask Moore, "Why don't you Americans care about each other?"
Krugman talks about the delusion of false equivalency in media that presents the lies of the Republicans as a valid opposing opinion on issues. Neoliberal Democrats have a lot to answer for also, but neoliberal Republicans are brazen in only looking out to get their's, period.
From trickle down to the delusions of conspiracies against Trump the Republicans are now in the league of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion for malignant fiction used to gain power and wealth.
27
Expansion to 28 countries during the "good times" was too fast and too optimistic.
As for Italy, immigration is huge as they are on the front lines with Libya passage and no longer a Kadafi to pay off to keep them away. Europe needs to act on this in a rational way or the far right will continue to make gains.
13
"while democracy is under siege on both sides of the Atlantic"
Indeed it is. But the Euro is not the problem. If it was we would not see the same development of the far right in non Euro countries. Democracy is not under siege by aliens and it is not some random forces of nature that launches attacks in the night, it is a well organized machine behind it.
It seems to me that someone, somewhere, has identified a bunch of weaknesses of the human character and has dedicated a lot of resources to exploit them. But who? Why? Is it Putin? The Koch brothers? The Mercers? Xi Jinping? All of them? The Bilderberg Group?
Whoever it is, the strategy is the same everywhere and the success rate is rather predictable. In a way, World War III is happening but this time it is not nations fighting nations. Or is it?
I'd love to see the results of "follow the money" behind, for instance AfD in Germany, Viktor Orbán and Marine Le Pen. And why not Donald Trump? Where do their interests meet?
Is it a coincidence that this is happening at a time when humanity really need to get its act together and save what's left of the world? I fear that mighty powers are now seeing this as the end game, they want to grab as much as they can and stand as winners, as #1 on the last edition of Forbes list.
A girlfriend once told me: "The one that has the most shoes when she dies wins"
9
What's wrong with Europe is the difficult digestion of its expansion into the East that was too soon and pushed for geopolitical motives. Billions worth of infrastructure investments are going into Poland, Hungary, Latvia, etc. and the EU is not getting political gratitude in return, to say the least. Those billions could have gone to poorer areas in Italy and Greece in a more compact EU that did not take on more than it could handle.
The eurozone is another matter, one in which Germany and its peripheral strong economies benefit enormously from a euro whose value is averaged down by the weaker economies down South. The cheaper borrowing rate those countries got in return turned out to be a poisonous apple, so there's a big imbalance in who benefits.
If the EU were a country like the US, people would flock to where the jobs are and nobody would hear about it. When is the last time there was a NYT article about the weak economy and resulting brain drain in, say, Mississippi?
Finally, the built-in conflicts between EU countries who are all trying to defend their own interests is often mistaken for the EU falling apart. If I got a penny every time the euro or EU was declared dead, I'd be sipping wine in Tuscany instead of being behind my computer. No country, except for the British (and even that's now debatable), wants to leave the EU.
16
The common denominator for the widespread deterioration since the 1970s is neoliberalism, i.e. the owners of the world exercising their power over a fragmented and emasculated class of working people. It's a global phenomenon whose basic principles were analyzed already by Karl Marx (age 200).
Countries where ordinary people are least affected are those in which labor movements still have some influence. That fact should point at a fruitful way to approach people's grievances, but those who try are made aware of what it means that the one percent owns everything, including freedom of speech.
Corporate media all over the western world speaks with one voice, defending the state of affairs. Dissidents are effectively kept out (professor Krugman being among the most leftist radicals allowed), instead leaving the way open for right-wing populists and extremists.
We've been through all that before and it took a horrible global war to restart some kind of rational world politics. It seems as if media and politicians are working towards that "solution" once again. Which this time may end exactly every human problem once and for all.
33
Bless you for making this clear. You're my hero!
2
Fascism is a symptom of capital current stagnation. Trump and its European counterparts would not exist without 2008 and its aftermath (which themselves are symptoms of overproduction of capital, its concentration and centralization, and the ever increasing inequality this creates ). Of course fascism only solution to the problem is war and barbarism. They could not offer a cogent explanation for the crisis or a real democratic outcome.
11
Politics is a continuation of economics. As long as the Free World pretends that it is OK to have free trade with dictatorships like China and Russia, eventual merger is inevitable, and not in favor of liberal democracy. The West is losing this war, simply because we are still too comfortable being in denial of it.
9
The US can’t live without trade with China. And viceversa. The problem is intrinsic to global capital despite the local form it takes. It’s stagnant
4
The problem is that the US has no right to inflict its form of government on anyone else. The US government is corrupt and dysfunctional. The idea that the US should stop talking and doing business with countries that are not like "us" is infantile at best, but in reality is veiled colonialism.
Don't ignore all of the despots the US installed to rule.over its colonies.
1
This is good as far as it goes. The deeper issue is the resurgence of an alliance of recklessly unregulated capitalism with authoritarian compulsions. North Atlantic fiscal and monetary policies became radically weighted toward capital and the investor class with Reagan/Thatcherism, and have been maintained through Bushism, Blairism and Clintonism (with Obama the latest acolyte). The mania for other deregulation accompanied and fed the shift.
Trump and the Tories are merely the denouement of Reagan/Thatcherism (as are the concomitant dissolution of the UK and devolution of US politics, the more destabilizing aspects of which are yet to come, I fear - the UK cannot survive Brexit long, and the American Experiment cannot survive its abdication by the major political parties).
Naturally, austerity is in order under Reagan/Thatcheism, prioritized over jobs and individuals - it is imperative to protect and bail out the investor class first. Paul cites the past saving grace of "the prestige of a European elite committed to democratic values" and laments that "that prestige was squandered through mismanagement." It just as much was co-opted by capital. The elite, in Europe and in the US, is much less committed to democratic values now than it is to feathering its own nest - it is now, actively or passively, largely the investor class.
And fearmongering authoritarianism is called in to tamp down the ensuing disorder and despair. As usual, primarily to protect capital and power.
27
The elite in Europe is not as you describe; see what Macron, an elite member has been doing. It's american elites that seem to be rapacious in seeking to get more out the middle class. Their greed has no bottom.
I admire Prof. Krugman for many things he wrote. Whenever he turned however to European politics his excellent judgment seems to be only “just above average”, and as we have seen in the Euro crisis, he by tendency underestimates the political glue among the founding members of the European project. Look at Poland and Hungary, where they are now economically and as a society - and now imagine where they would have been had not the European Union opened their doors (and pockets) for them.
19
Hungary and Poland have taken what the EU has to offer on the understanding that they must abide by the rules of the group. Yes, they've done well versus what may have been the case had they not joined. The problem now is that having taken the benefits they give the EU the finger. The fact is that the EU is too big and too diverse in terms of per capita income to be workable. Now we have Macedonia on the list and what's the situation regarding Turkey? A ship without a rudder - totally out of control.
1
'What went wrong with the “European project”, you ask?
I will tell you - Angela Merkel insinuated herself as the unelected defacto but not dejure leader of the EU, instead of being content to lead Germany and only Germany.
Merkel is the single most important reason why the old order is slowly being replaced in Europe by the new order by 2 significant decisions:
1) doing the bidding of the German banks by squeezing the Greeks to death by imposing crippling austerity measures
2) possibly and partly as a completely misguided compensation for 1), opening the borders to chaotic and uncontrolled mass migration of 1.5M mostly young men of another culture and continents away. Eastern EU countries, who value their sovereignty and national identities, such as Hungary and Poland, took notice and said that that was not for them.
Merkel also probably tipped the Brexit vote too.
The governments of Hungary and Poland were elected democratically, and also that Brexit was a result of a democratic referendum.
27
Didn't Merkel also cause HIV, and the split up of the Spice Girls?
Reducing your argumentation to a single cause - the German chancellor - also decidedly weakens it.
There are many more factors in play
- financial mismanagement in some EU countries, for one, but also the structural deficits of the Euro construct, as pointed out by Paul Krugman.
There's also the very human notion that once you join a club, you don't want others like you to join it, too.
Poland and Hungary received billions of aid from the EU, which together with their own considerable and laudable economic efforts lifted them out of the post cold war marasmus into a status of economic power houses of their own. But their current governments wilfully disregard these factors (external aid, sound economic policies and not least: the rule of law) to postulate that fiscal and territorial protectionism, together with a muzzled judiciary, are the way forward. But please keep the EU money flowing, since we're entitled to it.
Yes, one can disagree whether it is a better policy to let over a million of economic and war refugees into the EU, or whether it is more amenable / responsible towards the EU voters to leave these foreigners to fend for themselves in their war-torn countries. But that is precisely what elections are for. And as you pointed out, just as the Hungarian and Polish governments were elected democratically, Angela Merkel was also re-elected.
8
Philly, yes, Merkel owns the mass-migration decision, a decision conceived and implemented without first getting agreement, or even reluctant consent, from the other European nations that would be impacted.
Merkel played a part in the austerity measures, but let's not overstate her role. The EU bureacrats, and the political leaders of Britain, France, and other nations, also supported austerity.
6
Not that any positive comment on GERMANY will be accepted at face value. But realize the German Chancellor made a humanitarian decision to accept one million Syrian war refugees because there were 5 million Syrians in camps in Turkey Jordan and Iraq.
EU pays Turkey every month to feed these lost people who have been the victims in a terrible tribal war with Western intervention arming "moderate" rebels to dislodge the Syrian government. Final point (if allowed) Germany witnessed whole cities raised to the ground; Dresden Hamburg Berlin to name three. Compassion or is that asking too much in our state of apathy? We need to take some responsibility after 2003 Iraq war.
1
Europe's ok, Paul, thank you. The individual nations of the EU have exercised their rights & voted in anti-austerity politicians. What WAS wrong in Europe was anti-austerity & Merkel's well-meaning but tone deaf welcoming of immigration following the US-led forever ward in the Mid East. But Europe will find its answers. The EU will survive. And you cant have Schengen without the euro.
11
Perhaps Paul is right about the destructive influence of policy gone wrong with the Euro, but wait, here comes climate change. A physical force that will put far more socioeconomic pressure on nations and governments than anything policy makers can do.
The adage is that when times are good, people go left in terms of ideology. When they go bad, people turn to right wing, authoritarian dictators who offer simplistic solutions. Sound familiar? Maybe it's not about currencies, while that may be a manifestation, but about basic human nature.
9
Excellent general viewpoints. But as some commenters have noted, there are a few more salient issues that have put Europe where it is today.
Yes, the euro is obviously the biggest problem. I live in France, and it is doing comparatively well with the currency compared to Italy. I spent the summer of 2016 there, and I can vouch for every Italian’s utter misery with the euro. However I also observed that Italy has not managed anything well, and will probably continue to do so.
Another factor not mentioned is capitalism’s insatiable hunger for cheap labor. This societal imbalance par excellence has been going on in Europe since the late ‘60s and is responsible for the home-grown terrorism across Europe. The recent immigration influx is just cheap labor destabilization on steroids. So is Eastern European membership. Almost all heavy industry has fled there. It’s the U.S.’s NAFTA and China issue all over again. Poland and Hungary are just smart enough to see the handwriting on that wall. But their solution is not smart.
16
By comparing Italy with Poland the accusation made in stark terms of success and failure? In fact Poland receives the most EU State aid; but not after BREXIT in 2019. Italy has political problems due to their reluctance for labor reforms like France with frequent railway strikes this summer. Refer to Britain with no economic growth reported this year. All of Europe resistant to change in this era of enforced austerity. Why should northern Italians pay for "lazy" southern Italians as the common opinion in Italy. Other problem in Italy with so many North African refugees arriving every week y sea with no help from EU. Note the euro works for Europe with lower bank charges making the single market more competitive and integrated like foreign tourism. See British Pound the most unstable currency today; "going up by the stairs and straight down by the elevator shaft". Europe concerned US dictating trade sanctions and threats of trade tariffs. Italy demanding restoration of all trade with Russia. Europe may yet stand-up and be taken seriously with new leaders? By the way Italy is not poor; see personal savings rate.
8
I find it somewhat suprising that Pr. Krugman could write this article without mentioning the impact of mass immigration from Africa, the ME and much of Asia on the collective psyche in Europe, a region that has seen its ethno-religious demographics transformed over the last 30 to 40 years with everything indicating that this very rapid transformation will continue into the foreseeable future. In the Eurobarometer surveys run by European Commission, immigration and terrorism (closely associated in most people's minds) are consistently rated as the subjects of greatest concern by about 40% of E.U. citizens. Since mainstream politicians have failed to deal with immigration flows that are perceived to be out of control and have even encouraged them at times, eg. A.Merkel in 2015-16, this has opened up a huge amout of space for those who claim they will get such flows back under control.
While Eastern European countries haven't yet experienced such mass immigration, the perspective of having it forced on them by the E.U. (Merkel attempted this in 2015-16) provided a massive amount of ammunition to the nationalist populists in these countries.
As I said at the beginning, I find it difficult to understand how someone as knowledgeable as Pr Krugmann failed to mention what is basically perceived as an "existential" issue for a large body of European citizens.
145
And people migrate because ... if you look at phenomena as external to each other you can’t ever arrive at a correct conclusion. Africa and Europe have been integrated economies since at least the 14 th century. The ruin of Africa is tied to the prosperity of Europe. Slave trade, colonialism, etc (those never happened?) now the ongoing value transference from Africa to the rest of the world. See what’s China is doing there. It has always been very profitable for world capital to dominate Africa and Asia
16
No Africa and Europe haven't been integrated economies since the 14th century, if they had been then there would never have been the sort of economic divergence that occurred between then and the colonial period that only really started in the late 19th century. Up until then, apart from South Africa, the European presence was mostly confined to very limited contacts through trading posts established along the West African coast
As for Europe's prosperity being tied to Africa's ruin, how do you explain that the Ottoman Empire, which exploited (North & East ) Africa at least as ruthlessly as the European nations, fell way behind Europe in terms of economic development as did the major southern European colonial powers such as Spain and Portugal compared to northern European countries such as Germany which never had any colonies worth talking about?
If that were not enough, since you bring up the subject of China, how do you explain that country's (to which you can add many other east Asian countries) extraordinarily rapid development over the last 30 years while many African countries have actually gone backwards, at least in relative terms, since regaining independence after the very short colonial period (1890's to 1950 - 60's).
Other than that, this has strictly nothing to do with how Europeans perceive uncontrolled immigration at the gut level...
The divergence precisely accentuates once European capital (English primarily and then French) need foreign markets to expand its industries. The ruin of the Indian textile industry is exactly caused (not only tied as the latter means relationship) to the English dominance of the world market in the 17th century. I can give you more examples. Mercantilism is different from full scale capitalist development (the latter means colonialism and world markets - including those of slave labor). Mercantilism is associated with mainly with manufacture. Trade takes the colonialist form in the 18th century with great scale industry. Things don’t happen because people are evil or good. Hegel taught us to look at the thing as a unit not as things external to each other. .
2
The articles fails to mention one other group that should share responsibility for the situation that we find ourselves in; the multi-national corporation. And with labor unions in an incredibly weak position, they have been able to get their way on almost every issue that they have an interest in.
For example, here in The Netherlands, shortly after a government was formed, it announced that it would scrap a tax on corporate dividends. This would leave taxpayers to make up the 1.5 billion euro shortfall. This announcement was a shocking surprise considering it was not part of any party's manifesto and no party or politician campaigned on it. There has been speculation that the government was blackmailed by corporations such as Shell and Unilever into adopting the measure.
Adding to the problem is the fact that there is no strong leader in Europe. No Churchill. No Roosevelt. No one who has the strength to stand up to the challenge of Poland or Hungary or Trump, or who has the stomach to make unsavory decisions regarding immigration or the Euro.
Lastly, other decisions made 20 and 30 years ago hang like an anchor around Europe's neck. Then, all decisions were made in the name of European solidarity. The result: countries that would have a hard time fitting into the club or who didn't have the financial discipline to be part of the Euro zone, were invited. Europe is getting ready to repeat these mistakes by inviting Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and others, to join.
27
The republican form of government of the United States is not under threat of collapse. To suggest otherwise is to cheapen real threats to republican forms of government. Democracy, rule by the majority, has never been, and should never be, the American ideal. We have a republic, which means that the people or public have a check on the government. The government must return to the public for its legitimacy. A republic is also “a government of laws and not of men,” the most profound meaning of which is that it respects individual rights and civil liberties. Venezuela, Russia, and Hungary are truly democratic nations, but they are the type of governments we should reject, because they are destructive of inalienable human rights. The United States is far from perfect, but we are liberties are not imperiled any more than they were a few years ago, and the checks on executive abuses from the legislative and judicial branches of government and from the press are actually much stronger than they were a few years ago.
21
This is fantasy.
17
That's a remarkably sanguine view of things sir, especially your declaration that rule of the majority isn't the goal of American self-governance. I think that's an absurd assertion, harkening back to the dark days when women and black people couldn't vote at all, and currently enforced by gerrymander and the ridiculous, anti-democratic electoral college and the devaluation of voters who live in the most productive, and populous parts of America.
Meanwhile we have a wanna-be dictator, "elected" by a minority of Americans, whose party represents hundreds of thousands fewer voters yet holds power, tyrannizing the majority of us and daily, pushing the limits of Constitutional power. Indeed the GOP is increasingly thuggish and extreme and people have indeed been harmed by their aggressive behavior. Women's rights are under attack. Labor is under attack, poor people, the elderly, immigrants, dissidents and religious minorities are all far less secure than we were just a couple of years ago. And the press? Trump has his own propaganda network.
127
Freedom from want, free to earn a decent living and retirement, freedom to see a doctor or hospital, free to get a great public education. These are all being taken away from working people by neo liberalism ideology of both our political parties.
14
Mr. Krugman blames the euro and austerity - again and wrongly.
Mr. Krugman mentions Poland as not being in the euro. Hungary also is not in the euro. So the two major forces for fascism on the continent are not in the euro. The U.K. wants to leave the E.U., but it doesn't have the euro.
Italy voted the way it did because many there had the feeling they were being overwhelmed by clandestine immigration, not because of the euro. The Five Star party had to backtrack on its policy of leaving the euro when it realized how unpopular it was.
In France Le Pen lost largely because of her position on the euro.
Mr. Krugman doesn't like the euro. Fine. But he should stop misrepresenting the facts.
Since he is so loose with the facts when it comes to European matters, I can only presume he does the same in the U.S. So readers should be warned - Mr. Krugman is not a reliable commentator.
74
Bravo! Well put. I could not write a rebuke better. The Euro has little to do with EU woes as described in this article.
18
The Euro is a contributing factor but not the main factor at all. It did help cause economic malaise, but it is not the main driving force behind divergence. Until well-meaning liberals understand this, they are doomed to make the same policy mistakes as before.
14
Your opinion would be more convincing if you cited some, you know, facts to support your beliefs. You pretend like your arguments are facts, when that is clearly false. You offer a serious of claims without even attempting to support them with evidence. You've also missed the point of his article. It's clear you have your axe to grind about the Euro, but if you want to persuade others that Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman is not basing his article on facts, then you must begin by citing a fact, as opposed to a claim, that he misrepresents.
4
Meanwhile, in Venezuela, people are literally starving to death because socialism has completely destroyed the economy. And Bernie Sanders, the presumed Democratic front-runner for president, has quite literally said he wants to turn the United States into Venezuela.
Of course, Krugman has nothing to say about any of that. Because extremism is only a problem on the right, right?
18
No, Bernie wants to turn us into a GOOD Socialist country like Canada, Denmark, Finland, Norway or Sweden. And people who bash Communism forget that it was a very successful economic system, right here in the US. The Shakers were prosperous, successful communists.
This hits the nail right on the head:
"Meanwhile our centrists, along with much of the news media, spent years in denial about the radicalization of the G.O.P..."
The major media, including the NY Times, bears major responsibility for not reporting and showing what was going on. During the Obama years, for example, the main battle was not between Dems and Republicans on Capitol Hill, it was WITHIN the Republican party as new, inexperienced, radicalized elements took control. These elements, encouraged by the brief tea party eruption and raised on the "truths" spouted by talk radio, had no prime interest in governing. The goal was to get everything (whatever than meant) or to cause massive disruption in the process. They succeeded only in the latter, setting the stage for Trumpism.
The reporters and editors in the major media were following old templates, not looking at facts. This can be seen as one example of too much education: if you have been schooled for 19 to 20 years up to masters degrees in knowing how things WERE, how do you recognize when they have changed? We haven't caught up.
We sit like fools in a heavy rain wondering if it is falling from the clouds above our heads. In turn, millions across the country, buried in the massive outpouring of sharply twisted right wing news, have more impressions of what is happening but less true information, turning millions people into partisan parrots who shout angry insults with little factual foundation.
18
- and as this is 'déjà vu' and there was an 'opinion' from Paul Krugman in 2017 with the same title lets déjà vu a NYT comments pick from 2017 too -
'There is an odd, almost visceral hatred among US economists of the EU and the EURO, and Prof. Krugman is no exception.
Prof. Krugman gives a very concise, very evenhanded assessment of the advantages of the French social/economic system versus that of the US. The same can be said of most other European countries and societies, and one of the driving reasons why Europe is offering its people a much better life than the average American is due to the stability offered by the EU and the Euro.
Portugal, Ireland, Spain have all gone through a "Euro crisis", just like Greece, and they all have, or are coming out of that crisis.
Great Briton's Brexit problems are not caused by the EU, they are caused by British arrogance, and yes, stupidity, on a par with that if the US for electing Trump.
The EU and the Euro are, to be sure, not perfect. But is seems to me that economists like Prof. Krugman are still pouting that they have been proven wrong...
11
Thank you, Mr. Krugman, for writing this article. I have read quit a few of your books--by the way. Economics is to me of great interest.
In the 70's when I was in my 20's and working in Spain, I could change jobs (in ONE day) I did this because I did not like the office where I was working as a bilingual secretary, and, alas, 2 days later I had another job.
I have lived (at times for several weeks--and months in the 90's and early 2000/s in Germany, Italy, and Spain. And everybody that I knew in all these countries was working.
Crime (other than political crime was NON-EXISTENT) in Spain when I was growing up. And everybody that I knew was working.
After WW II, in any case, it was "reconstruction time." And particularly in my country, my generation was energized into educating themselves. It has continued with the generation after mine. It happens that Spain has more university degrees than any other country in Europe.
When the euro came I was there at the time, I wondered how it was going to evolve. I did see hurdles to be overcome. I could not understand, for instance how Greece--a country which I have visited in the 80's--that does not manufacture hardly anything. As far as I know, food products are mostly what they export. So, could Greece achieve a standard of living similar to France, or Holland? To me it was a big puzzle. And now I see the aftermath.
10
The author writes: "The point is that what’s wrong with Europe is, in a deep sense, the same thing that’s wrong with America. "
No, they are not the same. There are deep cultural and political differences between Europe and the US. Even Marie Le Pen's National Front defends the right to universal health care. No political party in Europe will dare to attack universal health care. Italian populists have included in their program a "universal citizen's income" and the creation of a "public investment bank." In general, Europe believes in the role of government to improve the economic situation. Unfortunately, only Northern European nations have been able to create just and prosperous countries in which government and private corporation play important roles. In the political area, there are also major differences as one can see from Europe's position against the invasion of Iraq, and its support to the Iran deal. In fact, Europe and the US are becoming very divergent societies. Although the nationalistic tendencies in Europe overlap with Trumpism the differences between Europe and the US are deep.
28
- and as a bit of a reality check - for anybody who has the choice -
Europe is still the place -
Where Health Care is payable.
Where there are ''real secure jobs'' -(and not mainly ''gigs'' and low paying service jobs)
Where you get a long vacation with your job.
Where my future kids will get a free education and where inequality isn't as out of bounds as in the US and one can still find great shelter 20 to 40 percent cheaper while the average American can't afford to live in America anymore...
40
Much of that is not true. Housing is certainly more expensive in Europe overall, and inferior to American houses. Kitchens and bathrooms are still like the third world in Europe. Your comments about employment are spurious. Europe is limping along on a lot of part-time jobs these days,and unemployment remains much higher than the United States. The U.S. is generally more comfortable and convenient, and although one needs insurance for health care, at least once you turn 65 in the U.S. you have the best socialized medical care in the world for a small monthly premium you can go straight to any private hospital or specialist you want, rather than waiting for who knows how long, like in the UK.Now that I am over 65, I certainly wouldn't return to an overcrowded Western Europe which is sloly but surely becoming Islamisized.
5
Three comparisons of many:
1. A family with three children from Redwood City CA moved to Berlin Germany because of yearly costs for housing (10500$) - education (110000$) and health care (21000$)
In Berlin they pay about half for comparable housing and health care and next to nothing for the education of their kids.
2. A single from Asheville NC -(had it with low paying US service jobs) moved to Sant'Agata Italy because of the good job market and cut his living expenses in half - being finally able to spend the extra income for his 4 to 5 weeks of vacations each year.
3. A couple from Miami Beach Florida - sick about the unpaid overtime - and working two to three jobs -(including driving for uber) moved to Lyon France - without being able to cut the cost for their (comparable) housing a lot BUT finally getting secure jobs with LIVABLE wages and also vacations of 4 weeks a year.
Want more?
1
- and there was a 0 missing in yearly housing costs in CA (105000$)
1
Actually, Dr. Krugman is missing the biggest reason.
All these nations have watched China. Autocratic. Single Party. Few freedom niceties.
China who lifted hundreds of millions of people from abject poverty to the middle class in 15 years. China who became the largest market in the world for Automobiles - approaching the combined size of the EU and the USA markets. China who became the manufacturer to the world. China who has no Islamic terrorism. China who has no illegal immigrants.
It is very hard for any observer not to conclude that for continent-sized nations (China, US, Canada, EU) the autocratic model provides the best results. Not a little bit better. But dramatically better results.
16
Your conclusion is specious nonsense. India, for example (where there are more than a few "observers") has concluded that the right path is democracy. The key distinctions with regard to nations is not whether they are "continent-sized" but whether they start out poor, and with what traditions. A poor nation like China in the early 20th century with a tradition of autocracy going back thousands of years chose to continue with autocracy.
What's more, neither you nor anyone else has any EVIDENCE, that China could not have done even better as a democracy and more open society. Still, with way over a billion people, they need to steal other country's intellectual property instead of making ground-breaking advances in science and technology themselves. Brilliant and creative people from all over the world do not flood into China the way they flood into the US, starting a large fraction of the most innovative and successful companies. Such people do not wish to move to China precisely because of their autocratic model.
Sheer nonsense, Baron. No problems whatsoever? No costs?
No - it's still NOT the Euros fault.
The Euro is still holding this whole thing together and there never would have been a Brexit if Britain also would have had the currency for over 15 years!
5
Ironic but the Euro is obsolete since credit card transactions can be done the same in any currency. However as another writer has pointed out, the freedom of movement within the EU is a positive element of the EU. Of course, the Brits didn't like that. Many Americans similarly don't want more immigrants legal or not.
1
The problem primarily is that Europe followed the lead of the us' CIA in believing that controlling currency, primarily through banking, could bring the world together.
The European powers of France and Germany are very similar to the US in that they believe that banking power can make up for the disparities of resources over disparate nations.
I'm sorry folks, the project failed. What do we do next? We're not sure, and the worst thing we can do is view this in terms of competition with China or Russia. What do we do next to meld a system of democracy with a fair economic system?
What we do here will determine the future of the world for at least 100 years, but nobody seems to know exactly what we should do!
I'm voting for Bernie Sanders. That's my answer. Do whatever you people do, but given the people I talk to on the street, this is an answer for at least 8 years. We'll figure it out after that. And perhaps, during those 8 years, some incredible new ideas will emerge. I would bet on it.
5
On both sides of the Atlantic Putin’s Progress has been left unopposed.
Why be surprised when both our societies are swirling the swamp. Freedom, truth, and the other hallmark values of our shared history are nothing when left denatured and undefended.
Fight-vote, or lose it. Nothing lasts forever but I for one am not ready to quit.
3
Dr Krugman, how did you manage to write this column without discussing the decisive role of rampant post-Soviet capitalism in all this?
What brought us - Americans and Europeans - here is the increasing concentration of wealth in few hands (that's what austerity is really about) and the unwillingness of democratically elected governments to push against this agenda. The single currency wasn't a 'people's project' and wasn't intended to share the wealth, it was intended to eliminate whatever fetters capital had.
20
It is a bit rich to talk about austerity in Europe being managed by the elites when the major experience of West Germans is the damage done by inflation. A more culturally attuned commentary is needed to identify a best path for Europe. Today Iceland probably thinks that the last decade was a life lesson.
4
It feels like we are at the end of a political ponzi-scheme. There had been the ones who have started it, who are now rich and untouchable. And now they have to sell a deficient system to a more and more becoming wary electorate. And every idea they come up with feels like another ponzi.
All this idea of a common currency, you should expect something such profound would be democratically backed, but it was just forced on us. And now this is gonna bit us.
In europe we just shifted the liabilities and promises between the nations. In the US it is still a class warfare, where the rich promise the less affluent some future reward, while they perfect a skimming scheme, that would put even a medieval peonage to a shame.
But we have reached a point, where a ponzi has to face it's collapse. And any proposition, like deficit spending, is another stalling tactics, that just makes the inevitable more painful.
We must really ask ourself, is everyone, every political entity, really benefitting according to it's own performance. Has liberalism really enhanced everyones wealth in the same sustainable ratio, or were we just deluded, blindfolded and finally sold out ?
12
I never viewed the European Union as anything other than an artificial construct on feet of clay. No one, from Charlemagne through Napoleon, Lenin, and Hitler, was ever able to rule united Europe. But, I always regarded the more or less single currency, the euro, and the freedom of movement within the EU, as positive side effects on people's lives. But now, Professor Krugman asserts, this ain't so.
However, I doubt that the example of Iceland, cited by him, as being able to stay economically afloat by devaluing its currency, is something for others to follow, although many Latin American and European countries had taken this path. The result was annihilation of private wealth.
2
And the United Kingdom took more than a millenium after Rome left. Perhaps it is the reinventing the ruling thing that is the clue. Any reasonable observer would realise that the UK failure was in providing leadership for the people. Nothing in the EU structure made that happen.
1
I fear that many younger Americans and Europeans are appreciating some of the limitations of democracy while being far removed in time from some of the worst dictatorships.
China is perceived as having a successful government that has delivered on increasing prosperity and that remains fairly popular even as the Chinese premier consolidates tremendous power and works to radically control the Chinese internet. However, readers of the NYTimes, the Washington Post, and other great newspapers in America are exposed to constant and harsh attacks on Trump which may lead to some Americans thinking, "So maybe America is no longer a good advertisement for democracy." I have heard the argument, "If democracy is so great, why did American engage in the disastrous wars in Vietnam and the tragic wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to replace the existing government?"
In addition, the constant criticism of America as racist and economically unfair probably leads many Americans to believe that America's traditional democratic principles are a sham. (My personal view is that if you want to criticize America for being racist, please also appreciate how often America has been a good example on the world stage of protecting minorities when you compare America at various time points with other nations.)
Too much criticism of America will also lead to many Americans being contemptuous of our democratic principles.
13
America is the world's biggest mass murderer, both domestically and internationally.
Its government deserves even more criticism than it gets. The strength of the dollar is what makes fiscally aware European leaders reluctant to push it too far.
The danger that Trumpism will isolate the United States from the rest of the world doesn't apply to the American ruling class, which is doing just what it wants, in complete control of the US government and the country's wealth.
They couldn't care less about being criticized.
1
I have been a registered voter for many years and I am truly frightened, not only for my son, but for myself and my family. Trump seemed like a big joke, a long shot that would never become the nominee of his party. I was more scared of Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush, conservatives who wore a mask of decency. When Trump was nominated, I never in my wildest dreams imagined he would be elected president. On election night, I suddenly became fearful, afraid to watch the returns. I remain hopeful that our country will eventually regain its senses, but the media, Russian influence, the weakness of the Republican party, and Trump's own corruption know no bounds. Frighteningly, the nation waits for a someone, anyone, to rescue us but no superhero is on the horizon. We will have to do it ourselves, a prospect that is even more frightening. Europe's insanity means that escape, a last resort, may not be possible. With so much on the line, you would think that our media, and even the Republican party would act in the best interests of the nation but they do not. I am still hopeful but the media is already taking bets, treating our upcoming midterm elections as a horse race. Equilibrium will eventually be restored but the longer we wait, the more likely that the resolution will be abrupt and potentially violent.
24
The problem with relying on the media is 90% of it is owned by the very financial elite who have Neo-Fuedal ambitions. The rise of the great libertarian fraud is an existential threat to our democracy.
It is hard to tease out what the problem really is relying only on mainstream media. They devolve to horserace because they aren't going to advertise Class Warfare. The whole point is to keep that a secret until it is too late. Recall how strongly over the last decades that idea has been put down in the media and by politicians...the agents of the financial elite in government.
Read "Democracy in Chains" if you want some insight into what the battle really is.
9
Well said j !
Germany... What will happen if the PIIGS leave the Euro and Germany's currency rapidly inflates?
"Continentwide currency" seems jingoistic, does not Mexico use the Peso, and Canada, the Canadian Dollar? Or perhaps only America matters to Mr. Krugman. Perhaps the 160 million people who live in Mexico and Canada are not really important?
2
The US is continent wide. It might have been run under the original confederation structure. Why is there so much certainty of the path to be taken. Canada is still a constitutional monarchy.
1
I thing Krugman is saying the fiscal integration and monetary integration make the dollar work across all the states. That would not hold for Canada and Mexico were they included in a single currency.
1
I don't recall reading the descriptions "disaster" and "giant mistake" regarding the euro in these columns before. Is that a change of view, or a sharpening of language, or did I miss it?
In any event, Europe seemed to be doing just fine up to the 90s, but they got a bit too caught up in an idea and overlooked a pretty positive current reality. And they didn't put the fiscal standards in place that were to precede the establishment of the euro which let several countries - one of which was Italy - off the fiscal hook. Just too enamored with The Idea.
If you think of Yugoslavia you might think that contemporary thinking was not going to cut it. All developing nations might in retrospect be seen in periods of chaos. The United Kingdom taking over the East India Company was thought of as a disaster without any real reference to the indiginous needs of India. But ultimately the structure of the state was the lever to be used for independence.
You missed it.
Paul has been talking about the miserable ignorance of the European elite regarding of basic Keynesian macroeconomics since 2008.
Dear Prof, please don't paint so black. Europe is still a funny experiment. Do not compare pears with apples: Poland and Hungary are very different from the Western part of the EU and the "high spending" South, Spain, Italy and Greece are another theme.
But trade is flourishing and Germany is, be assured, a rich spot. A pound of butter costs $3.54 and not $9.67 as in the upper part of 1st Ave in NY City.
12
No, Hungary is a significant point. It was significant in the breaching of the Berlin Wall, It was early in the adopying of a liberal economic model. The retrograde steps should be looked at seriously.
2
One reader commented, "surely it has absolutely nothing to do with Europe being overwhelmed with refugees and immigrants, that don't speak the language, don't share any of the European values." Regarding immigration, what I found runs contrary to the stink certain politicians and socioeconomic groups within the US and UK have made regarding the large influx of immigrants. The US had net immigration of approximately 1 million in 2015, the UK 333,000. Based on their respective populations the US, 326 million, the UK 65.3 million, we're talking about an inconsequential number of immigrants. What I do believe happened is that our politicians were ill equipped to handle the immigrants and the press played up to those groups making the most noise, in specific geographical areas most affected and hit the hardest by lay-offs. What is bothersome is the press rarely focused on the fact that technology is responsible for more job losses than immigration. I recently saw a video of a Tesla factory in operation. There were few employees working on the production line, mostly robots. This process, technical innovation in production, is going to quicken as we move forward. In order to bring back manufacturing to the West, Nike and Reebok are testing automated production machinery. Great idea though the few jobs that will be created will be in engineering and maintenance of the new machinery, not in manual labor.
8
Good point, but doesn't this beg the question. Namely, if technology is eliminating so many jobs, are millions of new immigrants actually necessary for the economy?
23
If you only take annual immigration figures into consideration yes, you could say that related to the overall population " we're talking about inconsequential numbers of immigrants". However, given that a very large proportion of the annual flows of non-european immigrants from the last 30-40 years is very poorly integrated into European societies and that the cumulated numbers are anything but inconsequential, reasoning only in terms of one year's immigration figures is patently absurd.
Furthemore, as you correctly point out, on-going developments in automation make one wonder why we continue to let in large numbers of new (low skilled) people who will find to extremely difficult to find work in such a context.
3
For the Farmers that grow multiple crops that require manual labor, yes, they require immigrants. For the hotels that require maids, busboys and manual cleanup services, yes. Many Americans haven't done these jobs in years. In addition, look at the unemployment rate. It's been going down for many years and salaries are finally responding. There are a number of lower income positions that can't be filled without immigrants. Then, for me at least, there's the American tradition. Immigrant DNA runs through the veins and arteries of Americans. Each group of immigrants that settled in the US was like a booster shot of stem cells. Certainly, there are rotten apples among those that come here. No matter, look at our history. There's no way you can separate the success of America without the contributions of the various immigrant groups. I believe it was 1947 when Jackie Robinson integrated the major leagues. Look at sports today and tell me what the teams would look like without blacks. I can't imagine a world without the Irish, Jews, Danes, Swedes, British, Germans, etc. I could go on and on. Trump wishes to build a wall to restrict immigrants from our neighbor, Mexico. I believe we should build bridges of friendship rather than walls of exclusion. We have the talent and ability to create the necessary jobs. We should stop wasting money on the Mideast and invest in education, materials science, space. Our Congress is sorely lacking in leadership.
The E.U.'s wealth is concentrated in the biggest banks, and political power in Brussels and Berlin. They impose austerity and top-down rule on member states, provoking populist anti-immigrant movements. At this point there are no movements demanding taxation of the banks and corporations to fund social services and democratization of the E.U. Europe may be slouching toward fascism or revolution to overthrow capitalism.
4
I agree with the conclusion. However, I put the failure in the US on the loss of the Democratic Party to the "centrism." It was the sole source of the good things listed here. The Republican Party was always what it is here, except the Rockefeller Republicans who compromised with the Democrats.
We lost a Democratic Party. It became Republican-Lite, and that further to the right than the old Eisenhower Republicans or even Nixon.
We lost the choice, the only good option disappeared.
We were betrayed, when the corporate elite took over the Democratic Party. THAT is our problem, and THAT is the one thing we can and must fix.
Republicans go hang, they've always been this way. That is not the reason they are now getting away with it.
That is on the Democrats, encapsulated in their trying to force down Hillary.
39
Fifteen years ago I would have disagreed with you about the shift the Dems took. They saw the republicans moving farther to the right and it seemed like good strategy to move with them in a flanking maneuver, cutting them off from the center. But they didn't play it well. They forgot about their base in the working class and the republicans saw that and moved around to the rear and sliced them off. The Dems drowned themselves in identity politics because they left their lifeboat behind. (How's that for a lot of mixed metaphors?)
83
The R's took over the racist vote from the D's Dixiecrat faction.
3
Mark, Democrats were not lost in 2016. We voted for Hillary in the primary (Bernie knew the rules when he joined 5 minutes before the vote) and in the general election. Without centrists you are a minority party. If you prefer losing, back Bernie again and we’ll get Trump again or worse. Do the math.
7
If you look at 1900-40 period in 20th century , you can clearly see that very few politician and economist can imagine the true 20th century transformation.
Lack of adequate prognosdication rendered early 20th century to rubble; 1 economic collapse 2 world war.
What happened 1940-80 was a short of miracle.
1990 past with complacency.
2000 brought a new era which we have not comprehend yet and struggling to cope with it , exactly the same as early 20th century.
we have two paths from here, either we will be patient and believe good things ( democracy, science, common reasoning and collaboration ) so the new computer , internet , robotic and AI will bring us a bright future.
or
be inpatient greedy, bad, dogmatic, racist and the very same technology wreak havoc on our future.
that future is upon us , we are anxious, and unrepentently greedy. Signs so far same as the pre WWI-WWII.
Hope it will never be that catastrophic.
4
Democracy has the disadvantage of being messier than authoritarian rule. Those who seek to achieve power at the expense of democracy have a vested interest in making the democratic process look as messy and ineffective as possible. This has been a Republican strategy for quite a while. It's undoubtedly just as successful in Europe. Voters would be wise not to fall the promise of a need, tidy and more effective authoritarian government. It would surely be easier to lose democracy that to get it back once lost. In the words of the great Joni Mitchell; "Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got
'till it's gone…"
6
I would argue that in Europe most politics is still at the national level. How else would they all disrespect Eurocrats who are constrained by the Council Of Ministers
This article in The Atlantic explains a good bit of what's going on in America now: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/06/the-birth-of-a-new-...
As for the rest, what's hurting Europe and America is the increasingly hard time average people are having dealing with technological changes that are not always benefitting them but are benefitting others (usually the rich or business) at their expense. Gilded ages do not lead to peace, love, and understanding. Making life more expensive and difficult for 99% of the population isn't a way to win friends or influence people.
In America we're being confronted with an ongoing crisis in jobs, health, education, and increasing income inequality and political stupidity. In Europe it's the Euro, Brexit, and immigration. People are tolerant when they can afford to be. In both places, here and in Europe, people are no longer certain enough to be tolerant.
9
I fell strongly about one important insufficiency.
We the people are not really ready 21st century, We are thinking that 20th century ideologies , mindset, economic policies are sufficient.
But not.
Some type of transformations may bring catastrophic human reactions to system which Trump like fossilized 20th century garbber cannot even see in his dream.
At this moment , this plane is flying but know it engines are flamed out in early 2000's.
I do believe Mr. Krugman protests too much. Almost all the democracies in the European Union are governed by coalition governments which effectively limit and blunt the power of any extreme parties that become viable. In the United States we lack that luxury. And to say that "Europe is in big trouble" is to paint with an absurdly broad brush. Visit countries like the Netherlands, Germany, the Nordic Bloc, and even the UK and France. You certainly won't find the kind of stultifying absurd partisan division you experience here. And these countries, by and large, show us infrastructure that is maintaining and modernized. The construction crane is still the national bird of Germany. So let's describe the trouble hot spots for where and what they are, while realizing that most European countries still pretty much have their houses in order.
26
Krugman conveniently ignores the main issue in the resurgence of right wing parties in Europe. No, it isn't 'draconian austerity'. It is the backlash against immigration. Opinion polls have shown immigration to be the #1 or #2 issue for voters in almost every European country. The parties that are anti-immigrant are also anti-EU, but it is the anti-immigrant stance that is most attractive to voters.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/social-europe-jobs/news/europeans-overw...
15
this is the link I intended to include in the original comment:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/16/european-opinions-of-the...
Hmmm.... After spending most of his column unpacking the mistakes of European centrists who misjudged the economic situation of the Great Recession and underestimating the threats of the hard right across the Atlantic, Professor Krugman concludes that “the bad judgment of our “centrist” elites has rivaled that of their European counterparts“ by giving in to calls for entitlement ‘reform’ and failing to recognize the radicalization of the GOP. But I seem to recall that in the great debate over healthcare, Professor Krugman took the side of centrist architects of market healthcare over a national health system or even a public option. And I also recall that he was a vigorous supporter of Mrs. Clinton over Bernie Sanders, whom he derided as unrealistic and unelectable. Economist, heal thyself!
12
No kidding. Mr. Krugman thinks we have short memories.
1
Europe's history ranges from barbarians, feudalism, absolute monarchies, massive rise and fall empires, enslaved colonies, conquered continents, and from the earliest times an elite in-bred 1 percent that ruled over a disposable 99 percent less human than chattel and labor.
European castes are no less rigid and oppressive than India's and likewise a linguistic and cultural Tower of Babel.
Europe is the personification of old money, hoarded over centuries by a handful of clans rich from financing countless wars and conquest. European democracy is genteel oligarchy floating on a miasma of ethnocentrism.
Europe is New York City on steroids. Only the sheer frenetic buzzing of commerce and cash at every level keeps both Europe and NYC from nuclear implosion.
If Europe was the Scots Brigadoon Krugman waxes poetic about with its ageless culture and socialist dream, there would have been no need for America or the new world.
The Euro Union allowed dynastic rich German, Italian, Scandinavian, Brit and French hegemons to become trans-continental Euro-archs with more places to hide.
If your worldview is the grass is greener elsewhere, Europe will suffice as disappointment.
Trump won with 1/4 of eligible voters and a few Russian hackers, with Clinton winning the majority of all voters including working class Americans.
Europe, like Magna Carta, is a truce not a prologue.
America is still the promise the majority of us will fight to keep.
8
If you cannot distinguish essential differences between Europe and India I do not see merit in your opinion. India has many more massive problems, but as a constitutional democracy, I hope that they can manage them.
4
@AB
India and Europe have numerous and essential differences; the rigidity and pervasiveness of social segmentation by caste and class isn't one of them. Another difference of course is that Europe didn't suffer Pax Britannica as the Indian subcontinent did and Europe wasn't a victim of the Great Game.
The notion of India as a constitutional democracy is a hollow one. The closest resemblance of Indian democracy at present is to the US but only to the extent that PM Modi is an extreme version of Trump, pandering to Hindu nationalists by exhorting religious hate and violence.
No opinion has merit if it's misread.
Paul - really dark today!
2
Mr.Krugman, please stick to economics. You don't know much about the complexities of Eastern Europe, especially Poland.
6
Everybody knows where Birkenau built and operated.
If in my life time , we repeat the history, I will be resent evenry single day of my life.
Vote, Americans. Vote. Your country needs you.
6
Dr Krugman forgot to mention the UK They have an utterly incompetent government, making the worst of a bad job in preparing for the insanity of leaving the EU. All the while income equality is increasing more rapidly than ever, and will eventually have severe consequences.
There is greater xenophobia in the country than ever before, and the government's overt racism makes me cringe when I think of my native land.
Worse than all that, the people have been frightened by Conservative propaganda against the Labour opposition, and now evidently intend to re-elect the idiotic fools, if the polls are to be believed.
5
Unfortunately the Labour Leadership appears only interested in power.
1
Having just returned from France, I would add that there exists widespread leftist opposition there to not only the EU but also to Macron, who is perceived as a tool of the wealthy by many. “Break the chains of the EU!” Proclaimed many leaflets and posters. The Left still sees banks and MNC's as enslaving the middle and working classes. Could that be correct?
1
When people prefer lies, hatred, racism, xenophobia, authoritarianism, greed, callousness, and propaganda over the truth, love, equality, inclusion, democracy, fairness, compassion, knowledge and wisdom, you have what we have now in the United States and much of Europe.
All the warning signs have been there for some time now, but, we ignored them. And, as with climate change, we are probably already too late. The storm is coming. In the case of climate, it will be a massive deluge of water. In the case of the global social meltdown, it will be a massive deluge of blood, death, and misery.
We forgot the lessons of history, and we let a cancer grow in our midst. Left unchecked, it's very likely that it will destroy us and much of the planet. The fact that the world survived WWI and WWII is no guarantee that we will survive WWIII.
Two questions come to mind.
1) Do we still have time to fix it?
And
2) If we can't, do we really deserve to go on?
Stupidity and ignorance can be remedied, but, when they are whole-heartedly embraced en masse as deities, it's safe to say that nothing good will come of it.
I fear for the human race and the planet. Because I know what unbridled human evil and a very irate mother nature acting in conjunction can really do.
My advise? Enjoy what's left of the livable planet and civil society while you still can. Because the odds of either of them still being around in ten to twenty years are getting slimmer and slimmer by the day.
What a waste.
12
I didn't think you were going to bring up entitlement reform in 2011, which, as it happens, was not enacted. thought you were going to say that, in 2009, while Americans were struggling through the wrost economic crisis in 80 years, the then-governing party decided that its most important objective was enacting half-baked and way oversold health reform against the clearly expressed will of the majority.
In ohter words, Paul, there's plenty of discredit to go around. And in fact the discredit is still being generated. I'm a dyed-in-the-wool Never Trumper, but I'm also a dyed-in-the-wool Never Warren. Yet I believe that's going to be the choice in 2020. No wonder people have lost faith in their governing institutions.
5
The path to redemption will be hard all right, but it will begin shortly. The Republicans always destroy the economy. And destabilizing financial institutions is a lot harder to fix than merely correcting for insufficient demand, the cause of most recessions. You can fix those by spending money.
Fixing trust in institutions is an entirely different matter, which is why the Great Depression hung around so long. The problem is that this time, there is no genius like President Obama to fix it.
6
This may be hard to believe now, but the fight against communism was good for western democracies. During the 1950s, our media was flooded with promos for the “American Way” and the economic benefits of capitalism as a counter to the “spread” of communism. People were encouraged to be educated voters. We had high taxes on the rich and strong labor unions to show those Soviets how the average American had the best standard of living in the world. It was an all or nothing fight. With the fall of communism, there’s no real threat to push our success or to unite us. We have no real reason for democracy to succeed anymore. And I think this is a contributing factor to the rise of authoritarian governments in Europe and America.
12
The last time I looked communism had fallen in the Soviet Union but has remained alive and well in China. We are in a much tougher fight with China today than with the Soviet Union in the 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s. So, why don't we have high taxes on the elites, strong unions and debt-free education to show those Chinese how the average American has the best standard of living in the world?
There is no moderate political center in either the E.U. or here. The center has been marginalized by extremists on the right and cynics on the left. Social media has ruined political discourse, while excessive inflows of anonymous cash into the political process is turning elections into a Kabuki-like charade to disguise rampant corruption.
Once, when there was a center, societies could at least muddle on. Now that’s gone, and there are no answers to what ails us, besides frustration, anger, and sullen acceptance. We have become afraid of each other, and there is only suspicion and mistrust.
The nation’s of the E.U. have dealt with this situation before, to their great sorrow. America has not, as yet, and our gun-riddled society is slipping away. We’ve lost our edge, and our future is grim.
7
Krugman contradicts himself throughout the article. He is obsessed with the euro. That was not the cause of the crisis in Spain. Befire de euro Spain always had a rate of unemployment double the European average. The cause of the crisis was the real estate bauble. The fact is that the economic reforms and austerity measures of the Government, have reduced the deficit/GDP ratio from 10% to 3%. The 10 year bond rate from 7% to 2 %; the unemployment from 25% to 15% in 5 years. The growth rate is 3% , the highest in the EU. The euro is a success; you can travel and do businesses in 1 currency, avoiding the waste of exchanging currencies.
8
Islands of prosperity surrounded by seas of poverty cannot long exist. Tides of immigrants, must who suffer from the violence of inequality, deprivation, either a) drive down local wages or subsume the prosperity through immigration. In market economies, there can be no plan, long term strategy for the greater good because of the exigencies of private capital. The idea that somehow we can live in a world of such disparate economies, nations offers comparative advantage to those individuals and groups that are wealthy and powerful. But for even them, it can last only so long.
5
1. The Euro is also "a continentwide currency, but we have the federalized fiscal and banking institutions that make such a currency workable." It's not a common currency that is at fault, but the absence of federated banking systems to prevent what we have seen across southern Europe. I hope they solve the problem, not by returning to multiple sovereign currencies, but by developing the proper banking systems. The Euro and other unifying efforts are A Good Thing.
2. Immigration is the other problem for both Yurp and US. The US and advanced societies in Yurp have declining birth rates that fall below the 2.1 kids per couple needed for replacement. Merkel took a brave stand to allow lots of refugees in, knowing that they will form the base for a work force that will keep Germany on top economically.
In contrast, US has developed crude and cruel ways to impede immigration while low-skill jobs cannot be filled by citizens at any price. Those immigrants speak a different tongue among themselves, and some of those agricultural and home-care workers may turn to inventing small businesses. Their kids will speak English and turn into businesspeople, and their grandkids will be eminent doctors, lawyers and PhD holding academic and industrial researchers. Our foolish short-term policies must end.
10
No mention of what are probably unprecedented levels of income and especially wealth inequality ? A shrinking middle class? Loss of jobs due to globalization? 'What's the Matter with Europe' certainly includes the impact of such forces, just as it does here. Lots of people in key states voted for Obama twice expecting change, and improvement in their condition, but when it didn't happen and they ignored or castigated in the election they voted differently. Meanwhile Obama is enjoying his riches for paying attention to Wall Street more than Main Street.
8
Improvement did happen under Obama, huge improvement, but from a near depression he inherited from Bush. I wish the Americans could seek the big picture here.
Very cheery.
So much to look forward to.
An asteroid hit might be less agonizing.
5
"Meanwhile our centrists, along with much of the news media, spent years in denial about the radicalization of the G.O.P., engaging in almost pathological false equivalence." Too bad you didn't apply that insight in 2016. You're still in denial about your role in the mess we're in now. You did everything you could to push for a deeply unpopular centrist candidate and summarily dismiss the one candidate who would have resisted the continued political compromises that have enabled the relentless rightward march of the past several decades. Yes, draconian austerity made things worse, but so did political spinelessness.
3
The root of the problem in Europe and the United States is greed. The very wealthy, and the near-wealthy have so concentrated wealth, and so narrowed apparent opportunity, that people who are down on economic prospects, people who don't see a chance to better themselves, no matter how hard they work, people who feel and experience that "the system is rigged", the economy works against them, they find they have nothing to lose. Glib politicians making undeliverable promises to 'save them', gain their allegiance because they see no way things will get better. The 'throw a bomb, blow "the rigged system" up attitude prospers. This is what elected Trump in this country, and this is what is fueling the rise of these 'populist' movements in other countries. The wealthy had better enjoy their concentrated wealth while they can. A forest fire burns *everything* up, and there is a flame sparking out in the working class masses that may spark a conflagration. Wiser wealthy people would find some way to slow down the concentration of wealth, but Trump and his Republicans did the opposite with their "tax reform". We may cure that with ballots, or there may be other means eventually reached, but the .001% play with fire when they skew "the system" ever more in their favor. "We'll see" what happens.
12
While the E.U. has made some terrible mistakes in terms of economic policy, and while relatively unimportant Hungary has chosen a path to facism, it seems to me that the U.S. has abandoned its ideals to a far greater extent than Europe. We have a president who is busily dismantling our most sacred federal institutions, while the most amoral Republicans ever to disgrace the halls of our Congress either applaud or stand silent. Meanwhile, racism here has been let loose on a scale not seen in decades, and the divide between rich and poor has been growing at lightning speed.
By contrast, with the exception of Hungary (and to a lesser extent Poland), European nations are governed by leaders who fall within the range of "normal," the institutions of government appear stable, there's no more "ethnic cleansing," and Chancellor Angela Merkel of all-important Germany continues to light the way to truth and justice.
Nothing stays the same, but I am far more pessimistic about the United States than I am about Europe at this point in time.
10
You seem to know so much about Europeans when you are not one who witnessed the development and implementation of the Euro. I lived in a Europe for 22 years and you have no idea of the impact of the Euro on human psyche in Europe. I believe you have a no clue as you are not a European. Most economists on this side of the Atlantic chided the Euro and still do. Many economists in a Europe simply believe you’re against the Euro because it undermines the hegemony of the US$.
Please explain this multiple decade dichotomy!
10
Surely it has absolutely nothing to do with Europe being overwhelmed with refugees and immigrants that don't speak any European language, don't share any of the European values, have zero tolerance for other religions and have no intention of integrating into European society.
79
@Alice: This is called ethnonationalism.
1
@Alice
Britain has for a century had citizens of its commonwealth countries move freely in and out, which today accounts for the massive diversity of most major UK metro areas. Germany for decades has imported its autoworkers from Turkey and Syria, with both groups now in their third generation of German-speaking citizenship. France has always had a large population of post French-colonial Algerians and Africans. The wealth of advanced European nations is in no small part due to the contributions of its post-colonial citizens, and no doubt its future wealth will be enhanced by its rich diversity.
It takes a closed and small mind to read the word immigrant and think of it as a darkness growing over a bright civilization wholly authored by god's select.
NIMBY doesn't work because it's not your backyard but humanity's commons.
11
Well, I have nothing against the presence of post-colonial North Africans in France. That said, I am deeply distressed to see the regression of certain of their brethren to practicing fundamentalist forms of Islam. More and more young Muslim females opting (under male pressure, of course) to wear the veil whilst avoiding the gaze of outsiders... these are NOT welcome changes in European folkways, not at all.
When faced with a crises, people often gather around the safety and comfort of tribalism. For many in Europe and the United States, the demographic trends are pointing downward for whites. The diminishing world of the white order of the universe is collapsing, hence the retreat to the simple minded illusion of tribalism, sectarianism and its evil twin, nationalism. The world and its problems can no longer be solved on a state by state basis. Large multi-states like the EU are necessary to insure societal and economic cohesion. There is no turning back.
2
Europe's problem's did not start with the euro, but with the financial crisis in the US in 2008. Spain was doing fine until the money dried up. It was 1929 all over again.
And let's be clear about what caused 2008. The first thing to realize is that the federal deficit measures the flow of money FROM the federal government TO the private sector.
Any sectoral balance chart shows what happened.
In the 1990's the deficit weas reduced. The flow of money out of the federal sector was reduced.
Thus the flow of money into the private sector was reduced. Then in about 1996 money began to flow out of the private sector, out of the country in fact. In about 1998, Money started flowing into the federal sector. This is the Clinton surplus. Money was rapidly flowing out of the private sector.
In 2001, the Bush administration started, and we had deficits again, but a lot of money was leaving the country. Except for a brief period in 2003, the Bush deficits were not large enough to compensate for the money going out of the country. Money still flowed out of the private sector.
People then turned to banks to get money. Private debt exploded. But the banks could create only so much money.
Finally in 2008, the economy crashes. Now there certainly were other factors which contributed to the 2008 crash, but the cumulative effect of money leaving the private sector from about 1996 to 2008 and the resultant huge increase in private debt was the main cause.
3
Paul misses the Danube States, 19 states on Europe's eastern flank, many formerly allied with the Soviet Union, which contain several of Europe and the EU's fastest growing economies, including Romania (number one), with Poland and Hungary not far behind. Poised between East and West, adept in central planning, using positive identity politics to extend rights and real power to women, skilled in manufacturing, this cluster of states are habitually overlooked, caught in the narratives of their past informed by sectarian violence.
No more! Using the template of development, the Danube States are building modern infrastructure, creating business clusters, education centers, and regulations that give reliablenassurance to new investment pouring in. Poised between East and West, their success is quietly happening in the shadows of Western Europe's troubles.
Many of these states have positively leveraged EU membership to provide investments in public and private projects and to provide markets for their output. Because of high demand, Poland now imports workers from Ukraine. These states have rising wages and emphasize the quality of life. Their narratives should not be overlooked; they are clear models of adaptive, democratic success.
3
The European-style welfare state is inherently unstable. It will only last as long as citizens act against their own interest, and continue to work hard although work no longer pays. As in any system, corruption and abuses will gradually come to dominate the system, as people seek to benefit themselves and their families through the political system rather than through running businesses.
The system was just tottering along in many countries until the Euro arrived; after that, the structural deficiencies could not be covered up for long. Decades of stagnation and corruption will, eventually, lead to a total collapse similar to what happened in the Soviet Union.
3
Is it inherently unstable in the UK, France, Germany or the North Germanic countries? If it is not, which I believe, there is a model for others. Any federal systen could not ask more.
Regarding Europe’s being better off than us in terms of entitlements, it’s hardly a fair comparison because they have us to pay for the defense of their liberal democracies. As for the disparity between countries that adopted the Euro, much the same can be said about the disparity between states here. Is Connecticut different than Italy? Be it here or there, fiscal competence matters.
3
1. Defense against whom? Putin, Trump's friend and enabler?The beneficiaries of our European defense policy are US defense contractors.
2. The most important part if Europe's better entitlements, health care, costs them much LESS than our much less efficient system. They pay less than half per person of what we do on average.
15
As far as I understand it, it is the US that is setting those demands. Where have the wars been in the past 50 years and I think that you will find that Nato has met its requirement in the North Atlantic.
3
That other countries know they don't need the largest, most powerful military in history is not their fault. Our paranoia is our problem, not their's.
3
America has always been and still is the worlds leader in more than Democracy. It leads the world in modern social practices and governing. Unfortunately, our nation has been commandeered by the militant Republican party and the mass media teaches the world about America every day. That is the problem. Scenes of violence and political upheaval have infected the largely peaceful nature of the world. It is up to us to change our monopoly government to stop the march to hatred and anger they thrive on. I will most certainly vote in November as though the fate of the world depended on it.
7
I'm happy to see Prof. Krugman's concession that the financial imbalances of a decade ago were the results of "a temporary wave of euphoria" rather than being a structural characteristic of a common currency. At some point, the other shoe will drop with a concession that the common currency is structurally stabilizing.
In the meantime, it must be at least slightly annoying for Prof. Krugman to read so many comments saying that currency unification resulted from the blind application of "mainstream" economic thinking.
Also annoying to have so much Trumpista company in the anti-euro ranks.
3
Congratulations - that parallel took a massive amount of squinting.
One of the things that seems inappropriate - besides the fatalistic phrases such as 'dark forces', 'disastrous decision' and 'big trouble' - is the projection of a top-down system on the European Union. Or whatever is meant by 'Europe'.
While globalisation, the financial crisis and several other factors have created similar conditions for problems to arise in both the EU and US, the problems facing Italy are still pretty Italian. Systemic bureaucratic corruption, a heavy North-South divide in terms of manufacturing and economic power, and going through 64 cabinets (!) since 1946 are not issues that plague Germany, Sweden, or the Czech Republic. The issues of Poland are again different - from the traumatic opening of its markets after communism, to the influence of Catholicism in its politics, to its close proximity to its historical foe (Russia).
Most European nations also don't face the national drivers of US politics; e.g. the media aren't quasi-monopolized or under attack by politicians, there isn't a two-party system strangled by donors, healthcare is universal, there are no demographics resulting from heavy (forced) immigration, etc. And general terms such as the 'disastrous' adoption of the euro don't seem to explain Brexit, PiS' judicial reforms, or Belgium's terror scares - the EU's woes.
Europe isn't ablaze - really, we're fine - but specific nations and institutions have their unique problems.
98
Thank you. You have managed to suggest in a few lines the complexity and variety of Europe. Unfortunately the NYT tends to see it as a homogenous whole. Almost as if Norway and Bulgaria were the same place.
11
Reading UK media and comparing it to when I was last living and working in the UK (1968), I would say that the UK IS ablaze.
3
Yes, each country has its own problems. But the profligate lending to southern tier countries that German and French banks pursued, followed by the rigid financial framework that Germany's inflexible and unkind financiers imposed after 2008, played a major role in the misery of many countries and the political revolts that have followed. In short, the greed, meanness and stupidity of EU's financial leaders created this mess.
12
"an elite consensus"?
Don't you mean the elite bankers, financial interests, and anti-government "conservative" politicians who propagated the austerity myth, the sanctity of "obligations" to issues of corporate bonds and (often disastrous) debt obligation gizmos as topping the obligation of states to their own citizens, and the neo-Reagan notion that cutting social spending and programs was good for all that ails?
And I wish you'd devote a full column to the way that the Euro itself has contributed to the Euro political situation. I thought the idea of trade without tariffs and border paper-work, and a common employment market was generally good for the Euro economy? (apart from the austerity nonsense and political problems due to migration, not the Euro). Please DO explain, Dr Paul!
5
It's all fairy tales. You've been to school, likely to a college. But whatever you believe to be the lessons of history are fairy tales. The popularity of our imbecile President is that he shows his followers that there is a pathy for people like him and like themselves. Riches may come to the truly dumb. Ecce homo.
1
With due & sincere respect to Mr Krugman, the problem with the world is that the powerful have hired economists to us what we're allowed to do. The euro's undermining of democracy & national sovereignty is no different from the trade treaties passed without democratic debate in the US. We need to learn to think in democratic terms again. We are rich countries. Instead of economists & politicians for hire telling us what we're allowed to do, and then swallowing all the "disruption" & impoverishment their schemes entail, we should be telling the economists & politicians what sort of life we want. Their practical advice will be more welcome that their unearned authority.
8
This is one of those occasions where I get to agree with Paul that Europe’s biggest mistake was adoption of a single currency, for all the reasons that Paul explains so much better than I could. I go even further, arguing that the idea of a largely centrally-governed “United States of Europe” was always a pipedream where nothing basic is truly shared among the participants – language, history, political convictions and development – OTHER than constant warfare among the parties for centuries. It may work for Switzerland, with a population of 8.5 million, but when the sheer differences and opposed interests of about 500 million get tossed into one cauldron, it starts breaking down.
Unfortunately, that’s where the agreement ends. During 2010-2011, and back into 2009, the focus wasn’t on entitlement reform because Republicans didn’t have the power to reform entitlements (arguably, they still don’t). The focus was on saving public sector jobs that were lost anyway once the artificial funding props for them ran out, and on booting-up green start-ups, some of which went belly-up five minutes after the founders cashed out. And the radicalization of Republicans was a reaction to the Democratic radicalization that predated it and that CAUSED the increasing polarity and dysfunction of our politics.
5
The road back for Europe necessarily needs to be very different from that of America, as the situations are dramatically different. Europe will need to accept that a true “United States of Europe” may not be possible, and pare back the powers of Brussels – as well as the cross-subsidizations they currently support. Going back to national currencies may need to be considered.
But, for America? We suffer from nothing that more moderation in our elected leaders couldn’t fix. Voters need to accept that excess, in one direction or the other, simply doesn’t work.
4
One might blame the global rise of authoritarian nationalism on income inequality but studies show that this is not the reason.
Instead the rise is due to a cultural backlash against social change and progress - political correctness - by the less educated and mostly male traditionalists who see themselves being left behind.
12
I have more faith in American democracy and the European people than does Mr. Krugman. Hand wringing rarely allows one to be objective about the movement of history and how sometimes the bad guys win.
One example. The people of Barcelona are standing up for themselves and are showing their 'leaders' in Madrid than they have serious issues with how their country is governed. I have been to the city twice in the last year and I have more confidence in their ability to enact change than in our Congress's ability to rein in our President.
6
There was no economic basis for introducing the Euro. It was fully political. Helmut Kohl sacrificed the German mark so that Francois Mitterrand (fearing a united Germany with its mark) would agree to German unification in 1990. Bush and Gorbachev were in favor, Thatcher against, so Mitterrand was key. (This was Kohl's second blunder, following the 1:1 exchange of inconvertible East German marks for hard currency West German marks.)
The result was that disparate, dislocated (from each other) economies no longer had control over their monetary policy, including money supply and interest rates. They were left with only fiscal policy (notoriously slow-acting) or painful deflation in order to align with the other Eurozone nations.
The United States is an organic internal market. There is a national monetary policy and a ginormous fiscal budget. State budgets have a limited role. Plus, if you are out of work in Topeka and there is a job in Omaha, you will go. If you are out of work in Sicily and there is a job in Helsinki, forget it.
The conservative first chancellor of West Germany, Konrad Adenauer, understood that the little guy needed jingle in his pockets: to know that the rent could be paid, the kids would get Christmas presents, and they could take an annual family vacation. The post-modern economy puts this into play, and anxiety breeds discontent.
I fear that the deluge is upon us.
35
It wasn't a German mistake so much as a French one. To get Germany to sign on, France allowed a euro that was too closely modeled on the mark. And so far Germany hasn't honoured its own obligation to loosen its own fiscal policy.
That was the first mistake. The second was allowing Germany to get away with not paying war reparations. which were due once the country unified again.
3
My 2 cents as an American who has lived off and on in Europe, for about 10 of the last 30 years...
Krugman brings up quite a few valid points. I think he overstates the situation a bit. Europe is not and is not likely to turn into some 1930s Fascist dictatorship. As much as we may dislike what's happening in Hungary right now it does not come close to what went in in Franco's Spain or Musolini's Italy. There is too much diversity now, even in a country like Hungary, for that to happen again. The diversity may not be ethnic, but with the changes in social attitudes towards things like homosexuality I just don't see Hungary, let alone any other country in Europe turning into a Fascist state.
In many respects the EU "project" went too far towards the concentration of power in the hands of an international elite and in its attempt to bury the cultural differences of the various countries. Now we are starting to see a backlash. European citizens are not prepared to give up their national identities and there is resentment that the EU elite bypass democratic processes to do things like make behind the scenes agreements with Monsanto/Bayer type businesses.
I think the backlash is needed, though it may tilt a bit too far the other way. Merkel's disastrous handling of the 2015 immigrant situation didn't help. But the seesaw of public opinion is normal. At some point in the next 3-5 years it will achieve a new balance, which will last until the next big societal shift.
17
I for my part continue to approve of Merkel’s handling of the migrant crisis. This was an emergency situation where half a million people where at risk of freezing to death in the Balkans in an unusually cold winter. Not letting them in would have created a humanitarian catastrophe.
Less than half a million people came in, once and never again, as Merkel and other European leaders then worked at closing the Balkan’s route, successfully. The number of people that came did not exceed Germany’s absorptive capacity, and in most places absorption and integration work reasonably well. Anti-immigrant sentiment is strongest in areas where there are no refugees - notably East Germany - just as in the US anti-Hispanic sentiment is strongest in areas where there are no Latinos.
9
Where in Europe? Sounds a lot like England based on the EU's "attempt to bury the cultural differences of the various countries." I don't know anyone, anyone, of my generation who feels that way, but I'm only 40 and I've studied abroad and have 5 languages. British conservatives lied to their voters for decades about the EU, and it finally caught up with them. Now they're sabotaging Brexit as thoroughly as possible so labor can get a new majority, hold yet another referendum, and correct their mistake.
6
I spend a lot of time in Germany because I have family there. Since 1974.
There were no Turks there back then, Now they are omnipresent. But, Germans accept them, however grudgingly because they do all the service jobs and have become part of the country's fabric. Happens like that and new generations take it for granted. You see young German and Turkish teenagers hanging out etc.
3
What the Matter with Europe and the US ?
Populism raising
How did we get there ?
To cite Philip Coggan (Aka Buttonwood) of the Economist in his farewell column
"Explanations for the strength of (corporate) profits include less competition in some industries, and the way globalisation has suppressed wage growth. In turn, this sluggish growth of real wages was a significant factor in the rise of populism, another big development of the past 12 years" [1]
So here it is :
Glottalization suppresses wage growth in Western Countries and the political result is populism. Illiberal populism.
Why would Paul Krugman not think of it ?
Because he has been a relentless promoter of globalization, an economist who called opposition to it a "moral outrage" and never understood the political consequences of the ill thought through economic policies he advocated in "In Praise of Cheap Labor"
[1] https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/05/12/lessons-to-a-...
54
Globalization is a fact of today’s digital,world. We cannot put the genie back into the bottle. Is democracy compatible with the forces of globalization and rapid technological change? Perhaps not. China shows us that if the trains run on time and there is food on the shelves, people really don’t care about liberal freedoms.
1
Cute. I wonder why you don't provide a source for your two word Krugman quote. I can only guess that context would ruin it. And what does the article to which you link have anything to do with Krugman's column? Finally, nobody is "a relentless promoter of globalization." Globalization is inevitable. It's called capitalism. The search for ever greater profits is what causes these problems. That you can't, or refuse to, understand that means you have no place in these debates. Of course, you didn't belong in the debate anyway because you have a personal beef with Krugman. Grow up.
1
Professor Krugman it was the Obama administration that had no respect for the the Constitution or rule of law. Liberal Progressives starting with Woodrow Wilson have attempted to undermine the Constitution because of it's restriction on government power at the expense of the freedom of the citizens. I have not seen that behavior on the part of the Trump administration.
7
I think it's worth picking up on one point Krugman makes - that the 'alien ideology of communism' kept European fascism in check.
To a large degree, and to my surprise, I think the same can be said for capitalism in general - that is, the alien ideology of communism kept capitalism in check.
These days, not having a rival ideology to work against has left us all poorer - apart from the 1% I mean that quite literally.
55
Quite so. In the days of communism, the capitalist countries strove to show the world how good the lives of our ordinary people had been made by market-based growth. No more. Now the fruits of growth are all hoarded by the 1%. The resulting unhappiness will bring about economic nationalism that will undercut our growth. In our next epoch, protectionism will bring short-term benefits to the 99% while our country and the world get steadily poorer. Too bad the 1% have never figured out that it's in their interest to share a little.
16
"To a large degree, and to my surprise, I think the same can be said for capitalism in general - that is, the alien ideology of communism kept capitalism in check."
I agree with you, only without the surprise. I've been worried about this ever since the Berlin Wall came down. The absurd proclamation of "the end of history" was in fact merely an end of restraint on global capitalism.
1
Pretty pathetic. Krugman's an expert at picking through data and ignoring anything that doesn't fit his big-statist prejudices, then sawing away at the same old whiny violin. Which must be showing pretty big signs of fatigue by now. If, say, late 20th century Scandinavia was heaven on earth, why have the inhabitants thrown the bums out? Answer: they got sick of the big social, economic, and budgetary problems getting worse, and worse, and worse, and the governments pretending all was well, regardless. Sound familiar? Like, say, 2008 to...2016?
7
America’s fiscal problems dwarf Scandinavia’s. They get out of control whenever Republicans are in charge and dutifully cut the taxes of their donors.
2
Scandinavia’s fiscal problems dwarf America’s. The latter get regularly out of control whenever Republicans are in charge and dutifully cut the taxes of their donors.
The "conservative" governments that pop up from time to time in Scandinavia basically accept the status quo of social democracy. You're barking up the wrong tree if you think they're remotely comparable to American RWNJs, or that those countries are anywhere near as divided over national direction as this one is.
1
I am a progressive and everything I read in the news these days about where our country is headed appalls me. But in my moments of humility, I wonder if perhaps things are not as bad as they seem, if perhaps this is an overdue correction of the generally progressive tilt of the political arc over the last 50 years, if perhaps when this 4 or 8 year presidency is over and mainstream politics lies in shambles, and when the populists feel like they have finally been heard, there might just be an opportunity for a consensus driven politics to rise from the ashes and once again permit rational and well-functioning government.
But I am probably too optimistic.
11
There is a very simple cause and effect going on.
1) The money powers that be ( that caused the collapse of the global economy in 2008 ) are still squeezing ( hard ) countries that needed bailing out/money lent to them. Many countries are dealing with the massive interest and debt load and not coping well.
2) The military powers that be ( especially in the ME and in Africa ) have displaced millions by decades of war on failed states and areas. Those refugees have streamed into the countries above ( legally or illegally ) and are putting a cultural, social and financial burden that they cannot handle.
The backlash is the rise of the extreme right fascist groups.
11
It's truly amazing how history illiterate Mr. Krugman is. But then again, we live in the Age of Trump, and it seems even Mr. Krugman is not immune from the disease that is Trumpism.
Mr. Krugman, just 72 years ago, most of Europe was engulfed in flames as countries that had been enemies for centuries fought the second of two world wars.
And for the last 72 years, most of Europe has been at peace with not the slightest hint of war.
Yet the European Union is NOT a United States of Europe, Mr. Krugman.
It is a loose compact of 27 vastly different nations with vastly differently histories and cultures.
Each country has its own national issues.
Each country is susceptible to outside influences that undermine the union.
In fact, the United States has been a country composed of states, tied together by the 1789 Constitution. Yet WE Americans are falling apart before our very eyes in real time.
And yet you think, Mr. Krugman, that Europe is failing for NOT doing what we American have failed to do after 229 years as a single united country: Build a united, peaceful society.
How disappointing!
15
Might be the road to perdition not path redemption
I'm sure Hillary's "incrementalism", a euphemism for slow-walking social justice so her wealthy confreres could continue their gluttonous usurpation, would have rescued us - in about 150 years. Sanders was the antidote and Dr. Krugman, demonstrating embarrassingly little political acumen, gratuitously vilified him at every opportunity.
36
Sanders sounded wonderful -- until you started thinking about how this was going to work. Sanders made clear that unless his followers delivered a Sanders-like Congress, nothing would happen, but his followers were too ga-ga over Sanders to ever do the work to deliver his Congress.
Hillary did not promise the moon and so sounded less amazing. But her proposals added up and were paid for.
"Sanders sounded wonderful -- until you started thinking about how this was going to work. Sanders made clear that unless his followers delivered a Sanders-like Congress, nothing would happen, but his followers were too ga-ga over Sanders to ever do the work to deliver his Congress.
Hillary did not promise the moon and so sounded less amazing. But her proposals added up and were paid for."
Sanders' proposals were also all paid for, and actually DID something (unlike Clinton's lukewarm 'I have a plan for that').
Also your assertion that Sanders supporters would not work to deliver him a workable Congress is based on....nothing. You just flat out made that up out of nowhere.
If you want things to change you have to set the goalposts out, clear and in advance. Bernie did this. Even if he couldn't get everything done in his term as president the momentum he started would finish the job sooner or later. Clinton and her ilk refused to lay out an end goal....they only permitted minor tweaking around the edges. Without a clearly defined end-goal like universal healthcare you'll never get there.
That, of course, is before we compare them on the war on drugs, Wall Street regulation, etc.
Oh phooey! Clinton was realistic. She wasn't "slow walking social justice," she was aware of the bitter fight the right wing would launch against the increased taxes required to fund nationalized health care, better public education not dependent upon wealthy zip codes for quality, etc, but also the deeply entrenched hatred of the welfare state that is so popular not just with right wing elites but with their voters. Anyway if Sanders were truly the answer he wouldn't have lost the Democratic primary by millions of votes. I'm really worried that you guys are going to blow us out of the water again.
Sure, Paul. And Western Europe's decision to absorb millions of unvetted Muslims into basically homogeneous ethnicially-based nation-states, most of whom were raised in societies that brainwash them from birth to hate Jews, homosexuals and that a woman's place is living in a tent suit subservient to her husband's whims. This stupidity is thanks to a progressive Left fantasy of a multicultural relativist post-nation-state to replace the failed utopian ideologies of the 20th Century. A political faction you are quite embedded in.
As for your claim that some form of authoritarian dictatorship will emerge in America first, if this whole Grand Russia Collusion story proves to be an hysterical conspiracy theory (and after more than a year, there is still bupkis), it will have been peddled by the likes of you. And it is this mind-set ... one that never accepts the legitimacy of the opposing party's electoral victories (we heard this same shtick from you when George W Bush was first elected) that would erode the nation's confidence in it's democratic republic. If that should happen, there'd be far more blood on progressive Democrat hands like yours, the same hands that are trying to turn the country into a tribal one animated by identity politics than a common core belief that has been relabeled and smeared as "old white man mythology" than there'd be on the hands of a small pack of white supremacist nut jobs parading under a Robert E Lee statue.
16
I do not think we should take lightly the fact that Trump may have colluded with Putin at the time of the election and that he still may be colluding with Putin now. Trump seems to bark at every person he deals with - except Putin - who he pays unfettered obeisance to. Why?
Most of the "very serious" people with power in Washington were focused on shutting down politically incorrect industries in the middle of the deepest recession in decades. These "elites" were inflicting economic violence at the worst time possible. I'm quite sure Krugman considers himself an "elite" among "elites" and he is too stupid to get it. The people saw that the "elites" were nothing more than dogmatic "progressives" whose ideas and policies not only don't work but inflict great harm.
2
Care to give specific, evidence supported, quantitatively provable instances of "great harm?"
1
The eight years under Obama's attempt at a command and control economy.
Look to Venezuela to see the great harm "progressives" are capable of.
Italy has had 61 governments since 1946, it is ungovernable, and has no relation to the Euro. I simply has a plethora of laws and regulations that has kept the economy stagnant.
Businesses stay small to avoid all the unprofitable regulations.
France is pretty much the same with its working laws, inability of business to even downsize.
The idea of the Euro was to unify these county's that had been going to war with each other for centuries, and economics is a main driver of wars between country's. The same reason for the open borders, trade and travel makes good neighbors. You visit you buy, you meet others, just like here in the U.s. and you have your prejudices just like here. I for one would not consider living in Texas, and even more so Mississippi, just different cultures there.
As for us, almost all who survived the great depression, who learned just how destructive conservative thought and economics was, are no longer here. We have lost our corporate memory, the younger generation is anti union. Those union jobs are what made it possible for their parents to get better educations, and working conditions, but we see particularly in the south provincialism. No unions no benefits, and no liberals.
History will repeat, it will take a couple of generations for the populace to understand what they have lost.
In the meantime we have to survive the Reign of Donald I the Mad President.
12
You haven't written anything about unchecked immigration into Europe from the Middle East, overwhelming infrastructure (as in Hungary) and the social fabric (as in Germany). Was that omission intentional?
43
The migrants who arrived in Hungary were in transit. They were just passing through, on their way to either Germany or Sweden. They did not stay in Hungary.
Since 2015 the number of migrants and refugees arriving in the EU have fallen drastically, due both to an agreement with Turkey, and to the control of borders in Austria and Germany.
The biggest problem today is, deporting those whose asylum applications have been rejected.
Yes, it was intentional. Any fact or perspective that is not in accord with the nytimes open borders, free trade, politically correct ideology is omitted from the news and opinion pages.
1
There is a very simple cause and effect going on.
1) The money powers that be ( that caused the collapse of the global economy in 2008 ) are still squeezing ( hard ) countries that needed bailing out/money lent to them. Many countries are dealing with the massive interest and debt load and not coping well.
2) The military powers that be ( especially in the ME and in Africa ) have displaced millions by decades of war on failed states and areas. Those refugees have streamed into the countries above ( legally or illegally ) and are putting a cultural, social and financial burden that they cannot handle.
The backlash is the rise of the extreme right fascist groups.
4
late 19th century/first part 20th century simply repeating itself.
1
There are dark forces in the hearts of us all. Some times and circumstances call those forces out more than others. The weakening of parties in politics has been reviewed for decades by Peter Mair. The drift from the nation-state into the market-state has been reviewed by others, including Bobbitt and Harari. Big industry and the wealthy weakened their ties to America and encouraged a widespread loss of confidence among workers who felt cast off and neglected. News media profited by spreading gloom and faux news. When rats multiply, the distraught villagers look for a pied piper.
5
All over the world, educated elite proffessionals calling themselves economists are not fit for purpose, Europe has more such than most continents. These men and women are propagandists serving specific political parties and the wealthy donors who fund those parties. The attack on fiscal profligacy mentioned by Krugman is in fact a polite way of referencing xenophobia and racism. It was the Germans calling the Greeks and Italians lazy (there is a recording of Ms Merkel doing just that on the campaign trail in German). Yet Merkel is just a local politician filling a void left by cowards from around the continent. Three great political parties completely betrayed their nations, The French Socialist Party, The Spanish Socialist Party, The German SOcial Democrats — all promised left of center policies but once in power accepted bribes and forced right wing ideology onto their people. The Rich got Richer in Europe because of the euro but also because they bought off the political opposition with huge donations. All three of those parties lie in ruins. Example: the French Socialists went from winning 70% to winning 7% of the vote. The collapse was well deserved. The european project and it's bright side are alive and well in the civilization of the western nations — but their political systems have been corrupted by traitorous political parties. The problem isn't the East, it's the upper class of european society that's anti-democratic, so they can take more public money.
2
The right is in ascendancy because of immigration.
The left in Europe and the US have a choice to make: citizens or immigrants (legal and illegal).
So far they have decided that immigrants are the priority- the only priority. They will continue to lose power.
I know I will be attacked for this perspective. Fine. I have voted left my entire life and I am going to stop over immigration. I care about the environment and see the endless flow of millions of people as a long-term threat.
There are tens of millions of people like me in the US and Europe. The left will collapse, with all it represents, if it cannot compromise on immigration.
25
There's way too much generalization in this article (Sweden is as different from Romania as the US from Belize) to make sense, so I will limit myself to Italy, where the current problem is centered
Numbers please
Region: GDP per capita
Alto Adige Euro 41 000
Calabria Euro 16 600
For reference , the GDP per capita of Germany : Euro 39 500, of Romania : 17 700
So what we have here is:.
A dynamic North, connected to Central Europe, with a HIGHER GDP per capita than Germany and an irredeemable South, that with all the public money poured into it - all the way back to Mussolini, squandered it - and operates on the level of Romania (and that includes corruption)
Politics has been correspondingly difficult.
Italy will have it 66 th's government since 1946. The average life time of the Italian Government is 1,1 years.
Not an efficient way to run a country, in the age of globalization, where other countries try to eat your lunch.
That gets me to the observation that Mr. Krugman left out globalization as a cause of political instability - that most notably brought us Brexit .
But I will leave it at that.
8
This trend toward authoritarianism and the decline of democracy can be summed up in one word, tribalism. The dictator is the tribal chief. The support of the monied elite by the commoner is the establishment of royalty, or privileged class. The reliance on strict textualism is the same as unyielding adherence to religious scripture. The hatred of the other is the ancient desire to conquer and gain control of as many resources as possible, to the benefit of the tribe and to the detriment of the conquered.
The reason we are falling back into the abyss is because, as I am convinced, that our minds have been hardwired by nature to see the world this way in order to improve our reproductive fitness. Absent the cultural stimulation of a liberal arts education, we reset to our default behaviors, which is tribalism. Our expenditures on professional sports are the gladiators of today that satisfy our need to war and conquer.
I wrote a little book ten years ago that presents my arguments on the matter. As the following decade has unfolded, I am ever more convinced that my arguments are valid. We may not be able to stop the slide into the abyss. The last 70 years may have been a fluke and it took a war of enormous global carnage to bring us that respite. We have forgotten the lessons of global war already. Tribalism reigns supreme.
5
The Torture of the 1,000 Cuts
Europe is suffering from the torture of the 1,000 cuts made by a crazed, sadistic plutocracy. Cuts in identity, cuts in education, cuts in health care, cuts in dignity, cuts in industry, cuts in state support where it crucially matters, cuts in pride, cuts in social services, cuts in research, cuts in biodiversity, cuts in responsible agriculture, etc
The worst? A cut in cognition! Europe doesn’t know this is a plot! Why? Because the media throughout the “West” is owned by the same class which keeps on cutting We The People in ever thinner slices.
An example of plutocratic propaganda? Paul Krugman’s Euro Obsession. True, the Euro, as it is, was created only partly, it’s like a bird, with wings, but no feathers: crucial institutions were supposed to follow to support and organize the Euro. However that was sabotaged.
The real problem of Europe, and the rest of the West, is the rise of the .1%, gathering ever more power as it becomes ever wealthier. And that power the .1% confuses the issues, and makes We The People non-cognizant of how the .1% pay too little taxes, or colludes with politicians.
Last night, “60 Minutes” explained that Google was a (world) monopoly, that the US Federal Trade Commission found this, but the Obama officials decided not to act. At this point Facebook and Google get 85% of the advertising revenue on the Internet. When some get everything and the others nothing, that’s called a tyranny. Tyranny is a problem.
389
You are expressing your thoughts via an Internet company.
Think about it....
7
Clearly Patrice Ayme IS thinking about it. We have reached the point where we have no real alternatives, and no US government has taken action. And while we can all see Trump for what he is, let's also ask what did the wonderful Mr Obama do to rein in Silicon Valley and Wall Street? Too little.
Well, but Krugman's critique of the Euro is on point and dovetails with your assertions about the plutocracy. The Euro essentially bankrupted the less wealthy nations in Europe and that combined with austerity, which was ill-advised in a recession, greatly increased inequality - inequality among nations but also, within communities. So you're both right.
26
The hallmark of failed attempts at democracy in modern times -- think Eastern Europe, Africa, Latin America -- is rule by a single party, whose members ultimately become the only beneficiaries of the state. As Dr. Krugman has pointed out before, in this country the Republicans have essentially regarded the opposition party as not legitimate, a thing to be defeated by any and all means, so the more obvious danger is from that direction. For the Western European parliamentary democracies, the danger comes from a Weimar-like fragmentation, leading to a single party taking over to protect the interests of the economic elite.
3
If the conditions of freedom mandates being told what to believe and feel and abiding by that in order for it to work, then I see no reason why it shouldn’t. Something else must be wrong with Europe.
1
One needs to distinguish between proximate and ultimate causes. The Euro is a fine explanation of the immediate source of problems in many EU countries, the false equivalence of the US parties by the talking heads is a less convincing explanation.
But there is some deeper problem both here and abroad, even if it is only going to be identified by future generations with the benefit of hindsight.
Democracy in the US didn't fall with the Trump election but was doomed well before him. Who can forget the Republicans who said their goal was to make Obama fail? Who denied the legitimate leader the right to have his Supreme Court nominee considered? Who would throw government under the bus if they didn't win? “If Hillary Clinton becomes president, I am going to do everything I can do to make sure four years from now, we still got an opening on the Supreme Court,” said North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr, a sentiment echoed by Ted Cruz and the "hero" of the moment McCain?
How the end plays out is up to chance and luck, but I fear the die has already been cast.
8
"Meanwhile our centrists, along with much of the news media, spent years in denial about the radicalization of the G.O.P., engaging in almost pathological false equivalence."
At least one area of the "news media" was engaged in more than passive denial. Right wing media discovered that by appealing to emotion and eschewing facts, they could make more than depending on the tired old business model, supplying actual news. And it worked even better when they directly partnered with the G.O.P. base, whipped into a froth through increased dependence on talk radio and Fox News.
The mainstream press, particularly the broadcast and internet purveyors, had found their own path to increasing revenue, focusing on emotional stories and disasters instead of doing the kinds of boring investigative journalism about critical developments (like the G.O.P./right wing media linkage) that could both warn and equip Americans to do a better job each election day.
7
On both sides of the Atlantic, since the 1970s elites have subtly remade their political systems to preserve the forms of democracy while ensuring that actual democracy can't disrupt the neoliberal economic order that enriches the elites at everyone else's expense. Both sides of the political spectrum were in on the scheme, the only difference between the GOP and Clinton Democrats, Tories and New Labor, etc. is that the "left" favored a paternalistic, relatively benevolent neoliberalism (but still with only the illusion of democracy) while the right preferred one that is openly predatory. Is it any wonder that large numbers of people both sides of the pond became disillusioned with the very idea of democracy?
55
"the only difference between the GOP and Clinton Democrats, Tories and New Labor, etc. is that the "left" favored a paternalistic, relatively benevolent neoliberalism (but still with only the illusion of democracy) while the right preferred one that is openly predatory"
The gulf between Clinton and the GOP was and still is vast. When are you and other such commentators going to drop the false equivalence argument.
I have no problem with people pointing out deficiencies in the Clinton administration. but the asinine arguments that there was no difference between Gore and Bush II, a la Nader, or Pelosi and Ryan seriously need to stop if we are ever to have any intelligent discussion about the issues.
It's always cute when Dr. Krugman makes fun of "very serious people" and "centrist elites" from his comfortably "slightly left of center but really not that much" position. Being a Neo-Keynesian who is skeptical of the Euro doesn't amount to much when one is also tepid on financial sector reform, or refuses to recognize that many of the issues confronting us now are due to huge structural inequalities between north and south leading to cyclical economic and human dislocations... that only accelerate with too-fast integration, too-mobile capital, and asymmetric global trading rules (manufactures/services vs. industry). Or when one supports the TPP and similar financial globalization deals that have no teeth to enforce standards of corporate conduct.
The Euro is unsustainable in it's current form... but it is hardly the main culprit here. Nor is entitlement reform, though it could make matters worse.
1
If Krugman used the best examples of advanced EU countries as positive examples, would he be labeled too ‘left wing’, and thus lose prestige and influence in US media?
What he leaves out is that the US has the most expensive, exploitive and profitable systems of both health care and election financing among modern nations. Both are major profit centers here.
In the EU, it is centrist to not have profit as 1st priority. Thus their elected govts use either single payer or they regulate insurance premium and drug costs. Their citizens live longer healthier lives than Americans.
EU bans pharma ads direct to consumers that swamp US TV commercials, marketing medicine for profit, and raising our drug costs.
EU nations’ elections use more public financing, limits on private donations, and use free media time. They ban privately paid campaign ads on media---our biggest expense, needing billionaire funding.
Because of well supported, strict gun safety laws, EU citizens can send their children to school with much less danger of getting killed by guns.
The US lags behind many EU nations in areas of human rights, criminal justice, support for workers and retirees and families. Their grads don’t have our huge tuition debt.
Krugman picks the worst examples—Greece, Spain, and ex communist nations for his column, instead of those more advanced than USA in many ways--- Germany, France, UK, Swiss, Belgium, and, obviously, the Nordic countries.
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In France, the Front National almost won the presidency, and in Germany the AFD is ascendant.
The problem is rising inequality within countries, and between the countries you mention and the East and South.
Europe may be in better shape than the US - for starters it's not been taken over by military-industrial interests - but is barely hanging on to its unity. A collapse of the EU would be a catastrophe, and everyone knows it.
20
Yes, everyone knows it and this is precisely why the Front National did NOT win the elections in France and we have someone like Macron, who has his flaws but is a true Europeanist.
And I'm not worried about Germany and the other "Western" European countries, especially since the Brits are out. They are responsible for a lot (not all of it but a lot) of obstructionism in the building of the EU. I am reasonably optimistic regarding the future of the EU.
Also, seeing the debacle of the Trump presidency, prepared in part by Obama, serves as a true reminder to Europeans that democracies can die. Trust me, they don't want to go that route.
@ Meredith - @ Meredith New York - I am a dual citizen US SE who retired to Sweden in 1996 after living here in 1991-92 with dual citizen wife and daughter.
I cannot improve on your comment but will try simply in a comment about to be drafted to support your statement and wonder why Krugman does not at least name the cluster you name.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
8
Here in the U.S. as well as in western Europe, we have witnessed a massive transfer of wealth creating global income inequality. Just three men in the U.S. have wealth equal to the bottom half of our country. And, world wide it's about 80 mostly men. We are witnessing the convergence of corporate and individual wealth seizing control as in Russia or attempting to as in the U.S. of the political process. In Europe the haves and have-nots have been defined by country with the latter called the "PIIGS" for Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Most of these countries have little experience with democracy and are fertile ground for demagogues to use the traditional "other blame" tactics as Trump did with Hispanics and Viktor Orban has done with Syrian refugees in Hungary to seize power. Once in power they work to undermine democratic institutions like the free press (aka in Trumpspeak as "the dishonest media" or "fake news") and legal institutions by appointing judges and undermining those who resist as in "the deep state" or attacks on the FBI. It's the path to autocracy or oligarchy or fascism, but it's all the same--absolute control of political, judicial, law enforcement agencies by a small group of wealthy individuals. And, as the ancient Romans learned, it's all about money (in their case it was the money generals made in conquest) and its ultimate corrosive power on a republic. As they now say in Europe, "What's the Matter with the United States?"
30
The populist turn in Europe is not primarily in the 'PIIGS' states - Spain, Ireland, Greece and Portugal show little sign of it - and Italy is a special case under severe pressure from decades of mismanagement plus waves of illegal immigration. It is ridiculous to say that 'most of these (PIIGS) countries have little experience with democracy' - democracy was invented in Greece, Ireland has had an independent democracy for 100 years, and Spain, Portugal and Italy have devloped stable democracies (despite Cold-War interference from the USA) after their WW2 autocrats died off. It IS true to say that the Eastern European countries' transition to democracy has been rocky - as the former Communist-era leaders inserted themselves into the so-called new 'democratic' structures and continued as before, with corruption and stealing their countries' wealth. Bolting such immature 'democracies' onto the EU has definitely destabilised it, as money from the wealthier, original EU members has flowed to the poorer East (and the pockets of their formerly Communist elites), and poor migrants from the East have flowed to the original EU members seeking greater opportunity. I fear that the very bureacratic structures of the EU, designed as they are for a community of equals, is not up to the job of containing the growing inequality and resulting instability.
2
Just returned from Russia. The last Czars held the wealth the world oligarchs have recently emulated. Just saying.
2
The decision to adopt a single European currency, the resulting economic depression, and the draconian austerity that made this depression even worse were all bought to us by an elite consensus of PROFESSIONAL ECONOMISTS, who have now gone on to collect prizes, honorary degrees and other fancy titles in acknowledgment of their altruistic contributions to European financial desperation, the political consequences of which are still brewing.
On this side of the pond, this very same band of bozos brought us the financial meltdown of 2008 with its underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment, followed by Obamacare, the most hated law in our nation’s history, and the consequent election of Donald Trump.
The past twenty years of European and American history has shown the utter intellectual bankruptcy of the economics profession. In the name of world peace, general prosperity, and human happiness, may our politicians of the future refrain from listening to any of them ever again.
While I agree with much of what Krugman says, don't underestimate the significant influence of the Russian propaganda machine. Putin has failed to significantly strengthen Russia, but is having quite impressive success weakening and breaking up the alliances of the west.
2
If it looks crowded, it is; at least since 1955 the population has been increasing. Urbanization has increased, and so the appeal of communal efforts to solve problems has intensified. Poland, which kept to itself, now suffers from one of the most unhealthy environments on the planet, having believed itself capable of utilizing a system of production which would stand it in better stead than if it was part of the EU. The main problem, I think, is that the watchword for characterizing both the communal method and the "individual" method has been conservatism rather than conservationism. England, soon to leave, has retained some of its natural resources (iron ore and coal), while many EU countries, I imagine, have suffered natural resource depletion. It gives them an uneasy feeling, since the days of Jean Monnet. I cannot say what Italy will subsist upon if they leave the EU, but I imagine their fate will not be dissimilar from that of Poland and, if it occurs, Great Britain. It is likely that the matter with it all is insouciant elites and increasing population. No equitable distribution of wealth.
4
Krugman is always a europhile and so his summary leaves out to very important points about Europe over the last number of decades since the second world war ended. First, it's Prosperity was subsidized by America providing its defense. This defense subsidy allowed Europeans to purchase social programs which they wouldn't otherwise have been able to afford. Second, Europe's prosperity decline has been masked by its aging population. An aging population is at first a statistical advantage because you haven't ever more productive Workforce as lower social cost for fewer children. The problem is of course that that situation turns around and bite you strongly and with no way to rectify itself.
(It might interest readers to know that Germany is now the oldest country in the world or in a virtual tie with Japan for that honor.)
Interestingly, Europe also has developed very little 21st century industry. The advent autonomous car which inevitably will lead to many fewer cars sold will inevitably lead to a collapse of the German economy and a concomitant collapse of the European economy.
1
I personally was always optimistic about the Euro. Any exit will have transition costs for any European economy. Beyond such, the question on "what will happen with the high debt?" will remain. I assume a full repayment. "How would interest rates react outside the Euro?" - not the same way as inside, possibly. This would be a very big loss. I do not tend to think about the other option, or there could be many but all would lead to a tremendous credibility loss. In such case I have a firm belief that an exit would by no means make economic conditions better for Italy or any other Euro country. Populist governments could cause hyper-inflation and inflict much more diseases to the market which are not even imaginable at the moment. I'd advise Italy to stay. On the other hand this may have come to late since Italians seem having decided on what's coming. One of the bloodiest fronts of human history took place during the two world wars between Germany and Russia. As Italy was one of the finding members of the European project, the ruling class had both experiences still in recent memory. Forgetting is an interesting political phenomenon. But as it seems it is a widespread disease. Any economic crisis can be overcome. But what radicalization takes can not be substituted. Anyone suffers loss, especially the radicals more on themselves.
1
Thirty years ago, my father said to me, “if inflation was the answer, countries like Brazil would be the richest nations of the world”.
The Euro is a stable currency. This is the starting point to the only real answer.
The nations of the south (Greece, Italy, Spain), they need to get used to the idea that money is real. After that, everything will be fine.
Or are you suggesting things are going better in Venezuela than in Europe ?
7
This column could not be more out of touch. One wonders how many European languages Krugman has and how many interviews he's conducted on the ground in the countries whose administrations he's characterizing. I'm going to guess, 1 language, and 0 interviews. It's not all in the numbers when you are trying to characterize ideologies and movements. Economists should recognize the modalities of their field and respect those of others.
7
The problem with the EU was its relationship with NATO ( i.e. USA). The eastern European countries should have taken longer before being accepted by the EU. It became an defensive-ofensive
military strategy instead of an economic collaboration, becoming part of the international isolation of Rusia.
3
This is exactly the point made, however subtly, in Keith Gessen's recent NYT magazine article, "The Quiet Americans" about Russia hands in US State Department & US policy toward Russia from the time the Berlin Wall fell. According to the article and confirmed by most of what we've seen in US policy, 95% of them are intervention-first neo-cons or messianic do-gooders who think they can change the world into America's image. Doesn't seem to matter which party is in power either, to wit, Strobe Talbott and Victoria Nuland are both Democrats (and Nuland served Cheney also). No one put themselves in the shoes of the Russians. Imagine if Russia or China was trying to install close allies in Canada or Mexico in opposition to the US. You can bet the US would not accept it.
5
I would suggest Chris Hedges article in Truth Dig as a companion piece to Dr. Krugman's OpEd. These are frightening times, and most of our countrymen seem unaware of the potential peril we face.
Following today's Supreme Court ruling, the last vestiges if worker protection is being stripped away. Our conservative justices have proven to be fools and shills for corporate America. They are now complicit in the unraveling of our social fabric and destruction of the remnants of the New Deal. Gore Vidal's words are ever more prescient when he said he was moving to Spain from whence he could watch the rotting out and collapse of Empire America.
Perhaps our countrymen will heed Hedges solutions in his bleak article, but I am not optimistic.
https://www.truthdig.com/
3
While Dr. Krugman deserves credit for his unfashionable opposition to the Euro, the central problem with the European Union ever since the German Chancellor's decision on a whim in 2015 to throw out EU rules in order to invite in her million man hegira from the Global South is that European Union elites now think it would be racist for the European Union to be pro-European. If the EU's leadership stood for peace and prosperity within Europe and protection of Europe's external border, the EU would be wildly popular with European voters.
8
If North Korea were able to hold "free and fair" elections; there is no doubt that the populace would vote in their current leader. They absolutely believe it is them against the world. It is no different in Hungary or Poland or Trumplandia.
2
This is one of the scariest and on point pieces you've ever written Paul. Sadly I think you are so correct. I feel in my bones that we are about to experience the end of the American experiment. Too many of us have taken for granted that it would always be here. I don't know what comes after our demise as a country, but I am very aware that it would put Russia, and China in place as the top world powers, as Europe and the US descend into fragmentation and facism. Frankly I'm quite scared.
9
Krugman sidesteps the important differences between the US and advanced EU nations now.
Yes, rw parties got more votes than previous, but they didn’t take over. Here, a rw extremist GOP dominates our 3 branches and most state govts, with its own state run media monopoly across the US, Fox News. Trump speaks daily with Fox.
EU countries don’t have a Fox type monopoly. Their candidates aren’t dependent on corporate mega donors for election financing, thus average citizens can actually influence their lawmaking.
Spain had a dictator until the ‘70s. Hungary and Poland were part of the Communist bloc---not a long democratic tradition.
Why don’t you use examples of France, Germany, UK, Swiss, where their middle and working classes are more secure than in USA? Germany makes and exports products, the US destroys jobs, outsources mfg, and imports goods. Compare trade deficits.
Besides mfg jobs in Germany, compare pensions and union protections. Compare CEO salaries and tax rates vs the average employee pay. A soaring gap in US.
Explain how elected govts abroad regulate medical & drug costs for their citizens.
How they support college tuition, and apprenticeship training, so their youth can make a living, without huge tuition debt.
How their corporations accept unions, and taxes/regulations that US businesses don’t accept.
Why does Krugman slant his column, ignoring the more advanced EU nations, Sweden, Denmark, Finland that are positive role models for USA?
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Your point is interesting, but it misses the fact that even in Sweden and such, right wing parties have gained ground in recent elections, often despite the relative lack of impact of immigration on most citizens' lives.
The right-wing turn and nativism stem from other concerns which Paul addresses in the column - and it is elusive and difficult to name.
4
I would suggest that Krugman understands that Sweden, Norway, and Finland are outliers being small, homogeneous countries. The question is: can large, messy democratic economies compete effectively against highly efficient and focused authoritarian economies - China, Russia, Middle East? Democracy and rapacious capitalism may not work in a globalized world except for the autocratic one percenters.
3
That's probably where the dark tendency to blame "the other" comes in. Increased immigration has definitely resulted in a backlash in Europe that has spread to the US. Of course we're no stranger to prejudice and xenophobia either. And it's lucky that we were able to contain our own Nazis back in the 1930's. That tendency to attack people who are different is always there and once a demagogue appears, who can effectively take an ordinary crowd of people and turn them into a baying mob, the veneer of civilization can be awfully thin.
Yes, the poorly implemented Euro is at the root of Europe's current economic malaise. But mass unvetted migration, fomented by the western European elites, from North Africa and the Middle East is also resonsible for causing social unrest and consequent populist political reactions, hence the rise of conservative, authoritarian governments in eastern Europe.
7
America is heading just as quickly down that fascist path.
We are turning into a 21st century model of the old Soviet Union. Except that Corporations are our rulers. And entertainment is our religion. We no longer have a freedom of choice, in politics or anything else. At least in Europe they seem to care about the monopolization and privacy issues of Facebook, Google and others. And most wield a choice of who their internet or cell phone providers are, at an affordable, competitive rate. Limiting big technology over reach and keeping it in line is something here in the US we have never done. This is changing our country into more of a fascistic state more each and every day. It's slow but sure.
Information is knowledge and power. The limiting or censuring of that information will be the downfall of us all.
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"Meanwhile our centrists, along with much of the news media, spent years in denial about the radicalization of the G.O.P., engaging in almost pathological false equivalence."
This is why I blame the David Brookses, the Fred Hiatts, and the rest of the army of militant centrists more than I do even the extreme right wing propagandists at FOX News. Every time one of these pundits complains about Trump I want to say well, you created him. Every time you responded to Republicans sliding ever further to the authoritarian right by writing a column saying that it was just a matter of "both sides" becoming extreme, you sanctioned the slide to continue. Pretending the Democrats had an extreme left wing that was anything parallel to the right wing of the Republican Party, which is now simply the Republican Party, this was criminal malpractice.
How do these things happen, you ask? That's how. Excusing it, pretending it wasn't happening, and even now, even with the results of your denial in full view in the hideous spectacle of the corruption festival of the Trump Presidency, you write columns claiming that "both sides" are extreme.
8
I think it will happen here first. There is a very dark heart in Europe, there always has been. But to really, truly go nuclear fascist? That’d be us.
2
Perhaps the phrase, "to hell in a handbasket" would be more to the point. Yet, at the end of the day, economic behavior is much more elusive than one might think. It is an issue that under the neoliberal yoke, the economic universe is rigged against us. The average loaf-of-bread-buying person in Walmart is unsuspecting of the weight of economic "principles" that make her purchase the act of a pawn in an inexplicable game. Next stop: play the shell game of applying for a mortgage.
From the NY Times archive: Did we pay attention? :-)
"Well, I give you fair warning. This is a road map to totalitarianism. Hallmarks of totalitarian regimes have always included an excessive reliance on secrecy, the deliberate stoking of fear in the general population, a preference for military rather than diplomatic solutions in foreign policy, the promotion of blind patriotism, the denial of human rights, the curtailment of the rule of law, hostility to a free press and the systematic invasion of the privacy of ordinary people."
-Bob Herbert NY Times May 15,2006
872
20/20 hindsight.
5
20/20 Foresight by Bob Herbert, though. And I think that was James' point.
No, Betaneptune, Bob Herbert said it THEN. No one listened. That's how totalitarian governments get going.
The Elites in YURP as well as over here, have been hurt by democratic systems where fiscal hawks inflicted Calvinist pain while concentrating ever more economic rewards into the tippy-top rungs of the wealthy; failure to prosecute any banksters, while holding their pay contracts sacrosanct was an especially bitter pill following 2008.
We've come to believe Stephanie Kelton has the right way forward for democracies at this time:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/stephanie-kelton-economy-washington...
Democracies that cannot ensure everyone shares in the fruits of regulated capitalism, are prone to fascism and other upheavals.
13
Addendum:
To be perfectly clear, we don't agree with all the points Kelton advances as part of MMT, but there are some good points worth serious consideration.
1
Paul, you were sharply critical of the irish government reaction to the crash. I note ireland is not mentioned in your piece. It doesn’t fit the narrative.
Post austerity we have economic growth of 5%, unemployment at 6% (down from 13% at height of crash); rising real wages averaging 2.5% (inflation circa 0.6%), and no far right parties. Not a bad response to the collapse of 2009/2013 period. Next challenge: Brexit and it’s threat to the economy and Northern Ireland Peace agreement.
6
Great Article. but it does not matter what form of government that the USA, Venezuela, Greece, Nigeria, or any other city, state, nation or family selects.
Every Republic, Democracy, Theocracy, Capitalist, Communist, Socialist, Fascist, Dictatorship, Kingdom, Principality or any other form of government still has to have their privately owned businesses continuously create sufficient new taxable national wealth in their nation so that there is enough available taxable wealth in that nation for that nation's government to confiscate a portion of that new taxable wealth and/or profit through income taxes, sales taxes, property taxes, tariffs, etc., and other taxes to pay for their wealth consuming government activities such as creating new infrastructure and federal debt repayment.
This can only be accomplished by limiting government spending to less than the government collects in taxes from non-government supported businesses or that nation will eventually face bankruptcy.
Hopefully this can be done by each government without borrowing wealth from other sources (mostly individuals in the wealth creating industrialized manufacturing nations) to pay for their various wealth consuming government activities including any distribution of wealth confiscated from the wealth creators and then handed to the tax supported citizens.
1
IMO, in Western Europe and the US, the oligarchs have won. They have won by convincing large numbers that society would be better if businesses ran the show. And when they did gain power, they kept more profits and told everyone to work harder. Which they did, yet did not do any better. The businesses told workers they had to work harder, and they did. Workers still did not do well, and now businesses blamed foreigners. All problems would go away, if only we got rid of them. And, here we are.
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The presence of "foreigners" does have an effect on the labor market; it increases the supply of labor, thereby pushing wages down. So the desire to shrink the labor pool to regain leverage in negotiating for better wages is not at all irrational or xenophobic per se.
10
At a time of full employment and finding it hard to find workers traditionally filled by new arrivals, we STILL see appeals to blame those "foreigners" for our discomfort and Eva has drunk the Kool-Aid.
I do appreciate this essay, but there is more...
I have been waiting for this essay on Italian populism by Paul Krugman, but the real per capita growth data I have for Italy extending from 1971 on shows that the Italian economy was indeed dynamic up to the time when Silvio Berlusconi became prime minister as a popular rightest in 1994. There was a successful populist political movement in Italy, a governing movement, years before the economy slowed and indeed the slowing should be attributed to the self-defeating polices of the Berlusconi government. Vincente Navarro of Johns Hopkins recognized the popular rightest success in Italy early on. The driver was simply not economics, though Krugman can easily argue the opposite using data taken after 2007.
Italian populism became the Italian government in 1994, not this year.
7
Philosopher John Rawls made two key points:
1. Policy should be constructed as if you didn't know whether you were part of the minority or majority.
2. Economic disparities are permissible provided they end up benefitting the least advantaged members of society.
Regarding #1: One of the flaws in human nature is how vulnerable we are to scapegoating others for our own problems. When a leader targets state power on a minority, everyone has to step up and stop them. In this case, it's immigrants and Muslims. I thought we learned this lesson with 1930's Germany, but apparently we need a reminder.
Regarding #2: In the U.S., rather than look in the mirror and ask why the rich are getting a huge tax cut while 4 million have lost health insurance, we're fighting over useless symbolic matters (the Wall) and creating trade wars that have nothing to do with our problems.
We're flunking both of Rawls' tests.
We can solve our problems in the U.S. with a blue wave, focused on higher taxes on the rich to fund universal healthcare (ACA expansion or Medicare for All) and college or trade school for the middle class.
I'm not sure how to fix Europe, but at least their debt to GDP ratio is falling along with unemployment.
24
The problem with the blue wave is a minority of democrats are actually republicans in disguise. When Democrats had majorities in the house and Senate, instead of ram-rodding through actual health care reform, they passed unfunded nightmare legislation that increased services but didn't reduce costs. Why? because a lot of democrats are bought by the health care complex industries and big Pharma. During election season, they say they want health care reform, but the really don't. They only say this to get elected.
5
OK. We have similar symptoms of dysfunction and disrespect for democratic values. But what is the underlying cause. Is it the same in both cases? If so, can you explain it? If not why are we on the same path at the same time?
I agree the situation is perilous both here and in Europe. But we need more than just cries of alarm. We need analyses that will help us recover our bearings.
2
I don't know much about Europe but I see what's happening in our country. Life is getting better and better for some people and worse and worse for a whole lot of others.
Paychecks are flat, medical insurance is expensive (even company subsidized insurance), housing prices are through the roof, our kids are struggling with massive college debt, our roads, tunnels and bridges are failing, our water is unsafe, kids are not safe in schools, teachers use their own money to buy supplies for their schools, police departments are understaffed, undertrained and overworked, and the Republicans just gave a huge tax cut to large corporations and wealthy individuals!
In these conditions, is it difficult to see why people are willing to take a chance with a non-politician even if he sounds a little scary. Okay, they picked a loser but maybe next time they will get someone who will live up to his/her promises. At least it's a chance at a better life.
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Most of the problems you mention are plainly due to the extraction of money from the 99% to benefit the .1% (and their near neighbors the 1%, approximately). Paychecks are flat because the .1% is getting the surplus (i.e., profit). Medical insurance is expensive because health care is underfunded and overexploited to benefit the .1%. Housing prices are driven up by grossly large prices paid by the .1%. College costs are driven up by .... Taxes are lowered to benefit the .... Why go on? It's clear enough.
We need to take control from them, raise their taxes to 1950s levels so they get put in their place (their political control depends on their supernal wealth) and we can spend on real needs, and finally be able to fix the country.
641
Exactly Thomas, the billionaires have been manipulating markets, media, and government to centralize the economy under their control, and they have created a global economic system that redistributes wealth from those that actually do the work to them.
Thank you, McGloin. You put it in a nutshell.
Krugman oversimplified the issues facing Europe. First off, as he called out, even countries that are not part of the Euro went down totalitarian ways and xenophobia. Brexit had nothing to do with the Euro, and much to do with the feeling of "not being in control of our destiny". Although the refugee crisis highlighted the irrational fear that Europeans feel about Islam, what pushed the British to Brexit was not the inflow of hordes of Syrians or Afghanis but the inflow of many Eastern Europeans (EU Members). The truth is that many countries feel resentful about any major influx of foreigners - I doubt that Hungarians would accept 1 million British laborers in their midst. After 70 years of prosperity, many countries have also forgotten the hard lessons of WWII or the misery it caused. Coupled with rapidly encroaching automation and loss of the the old ways of doing things, all the dark underlying prejudices and conflicts suddenly reemerge. The idea that "we rise together" is now actively being torn down by politicians that appeal to our lowest instincts - on both sides of the Atlantic.
110
Brian, don't get carried away. Hungary's population of around 10 million would naturally be affected more drastically than Britain's of 60 million by the same one million migrants (from anywhere).
8
Brian, one of the Brexit architects deception was that Health Care System will be better funded when money are kept in the country, instead of being sent to Brussels. A monumentak LIE. The money has never been found and the system is in much worse shape now.
4
"the refugee crisis highlighted the irrational fear that Europeans feel about Islam." Maybe it is quite rational. Between demographic collapse in Europe and rapid growth of Muslim populations in Europe, Europe could be a very unhappy place in 50 or 100 years. Blasphemers, feminists, atheists, infidels of all varieties, free-speech advocates, and LGBTQs could all end up in the cross-hairs of Muslim fundamentalists. Seems like a really dark future to me.
2
It's truly a sad story, sadder even the Trump story here.
Highlighted in the news today were photos of far-right thugs kicking the shit out of a 75-year old liberal mayor they disagreed with. I won't be spending vacation dollars there, not anytime soon.
8
Off today's topic but has anyone thought that Eric Prince's help to the Trump campaign might have resulted in something else besides help from the Middle East namely that he bought his sister a Secretariat . Just a thought.
7
The situation in Europe is complex, and I don’t want to blame it all on one thing. But if I had to choose the major culprit, it is the field of Economics itself.
It is mainstream economics which gave us the disastrous euro.
It is mainstream economics which hollowed out the middle class in America with its dogmas about “globalization” and “free trade”.
It is mainstream economics which advocated the deregulation which led to 2008.
And it is mainstream economics which advocated disastrous austerity thereafter.
All the elites from around the world have gone to our Ivy League colleges and learned this religion masquerading as science called “economics”.
The movie “Inside Job” began to show the depravity of the field: Ivy League professors of economics who can’t see any conflict of interest when they accept hundreds of thousands of dollars from Wall Street.
And that doesn’t even begin to tell the story of how depraved and bankrupt the field is.
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Economists only have so many variables in their toolbox and, as a result, they over-emphasize things that they can quantify and stay silent on things that can’t be measured. It turns out that the aspects of trade that can’t be translated into a digit might even be more important than those that can. What number do we assign to the destruction of a previously healthy and vibrant community when a plant shuts down? The people who lose their jobs aren’t just employees at the plant, but also the local baker, the barber, the employees at the grocery store and so on. The effects ripple through their family members as well. Economists can’t possibly adequately take these devastating effects into account.
36
I don't think you need to be an economist to know that trade, on the whole, increases prosperity. Ask a historian. Or how about avoiding major wars? Intimately linking economies also has many difficult to measure benefits.
17
This is the comment I would like to see Prof K engage with.
What are the shortcomings of "economics" as a means of measuring economic well being?
What about the loss of environment, habitat and biodiversity globally which fuels Europe's and the USA's prosperity, while impoverishing people around the world?
Corporations warp the laws to their benefit; in patent & copyright, privacy, health & safety, environmental protection, housing, education, and on and on.
Our biggest challenge is corruption, or in other words, our own nature and limited intelligence.
Our best hope, is an open internet that facilitates genuine communication, and free of fake news.
6
The issue in Europe is that it is a conglomeration of nation-states.
Now that the dust of WW2 has settled much of the chumminess has gone. The nation-states want to go their own way. Which means national currencies, closed borders and regulation of immigration may be on the horizon.
Stay tuned.
5
“...the collapse of freedom, if it comes,will probably happen here first.” Ah, Dr. Krugman, it’s essentially already begun.
The first assault was begun, long ago, in 1972, with a “third-rate burglary.” The forces of democracy beat back the threat because we had a functioning two-party system then. We do not today. One is bent on a plutocracy; the other goes about like a eunuch, disempowered both by its own incompetence and its stupefying inability to build a coalition of academics, blue-collar workers, professionals and students—borne upon a raft of educational inspiration and discovery. The post-WWII Western liberal order with its unique American blueprint is a thing of the past.
The Republican party, not yet the insular menace that began life under Richard Nixon, found—until Donald Trump’s “American Carnage”—its fullest expression under Ronald Reagan’s “government is the problem” (1981), the nation’s mournful dirge that essentially was the first shovels-full of dirt on the American experiment.
The great tsunami of destruction to the bi-partisanship that rowed the boat—however unevenly—was Newt Gingrich’s Contract With America (1994). This wholesale and unapologetic turn to the Right —with its undisguised summons to racial and social and economic division is now nearly complete under Trump. He is the American mirror of the night falling over Europe (Poland; Hungary; Italy; a wobbly Germany)—all once our most steadfast allies.
The dark curtains are upon us. Today. Now.
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Truthful eloquence from Soxared. Alas.
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I'm increasingly unconvinced that the Democratic Party is incompetent so much as simply complicit.
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They get their money from the same corporations as Republicans. 12 Democratic Senators voted against a drug import bill one of which was Cory Booker. Why?
Paul, take heart. In November this fall the election will bring an end to Trumpism. Trump will become a lame duck president and the Congress will return to control of the Democrats.
There is only one problem. The elitists of the Democratic Party don't have a clue about how to govern. They will spend their political capital attacking Republicans, guns, ultra-conservatives and look to find villains that are not liberal enough. In other words they will seek reforms they will only seek revenge. And they will also continue to seek tying America's hands as it struggles with issues of education, environment, civil rights, inequality, infrastructure, disenfranchised women and minorities, wage gaps, glass ceilings, revenge against gun owners, and they will also continue to pursue endless taxation of the middle class further impoverishing the people struggling the most. But, again, take heart, Donald's administration will be hamstrung. Oh, and defense will once again be gutted and further weakened by elites that truly believe we don't need to defend ourselves and our borders should be open borders. Wait. Maybe I'm wrong. Isn't Donald keeping his promises?
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Beware overconfidence. Beware, beware, beware. And don't count your voters before they hatch.
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defense weakened? please. this conservative meme needs to be permanently killed. how well i remember the fear republicans introduced into their voters back in the campaign for the 2000 election. "clinton has let our military fall apart! " "we are unprepared" "we can't fight a two front war" ...... and yet by 10/7/01 we were fighting in afghanistan and by 3/20/03 we added the iraq war to the list. this all happened with no draft and not enough time to truly rebuild a collapsed military..... and of course trump used this same lie and is still telling us this same lie.
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The issue with Greece was not the amount of money flowing into it, but the amount of money allegedly flowing into it.
For years their GDP was overvalued and their public deficit was undervalued, but thanks to derivatives deals with US banks and to Goldman Sachs falsified statements, the Eurozone partners were duped.
7
The issue in Europe is that it is a conglomeration of nation-states.
Now that the dust of WW2 has settled much of the chumminess has gone. The nation-states want to go their own way. Which means national currencies, closed borders and regulation of immigration may be on the horizon.
Stay tuned.
1
I quite agree with you and the solution would be to get rid of European nation-states and make Europe a federation of European provinces. Gone would be France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the rest, replaced by Alsace, Brittany, Bavaria, Cataluna, etc. This was I have been saying for decades but nobody listen to me and we will soon have not only national currencies and closed borders but also good old national wars.
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“And now America finds itself governed by a party with as little respect for democratic norms or rule of law as Hungary’s Fidesz”
Our political landscape is distorted and does not reflect the will of the people. Our vote-counting system has been set up for concealment, outsourced to a handful of private rightwing companies that count our votes in secret on proprietary software.
In 2010, with 300 safe House seats Republicans won an unprecedented 128 of the remaining 135 seats with a small national vote share even though close races should break about even.
In 2014, the approval rating of the Republican Congress was in the single digits. The Party of No swept up more seats despite the fact that progressive ballot measures passed by wide margins (even in non-blue states).
Fitrakis and Wasserman: Why the US State Department Would Not Certify Trump’s Election as Legitimate https://tinyurl.com/y8a7gqn9
Victoria Collier: How to Rig an Election https://tinyurl.com/y9xx63f6
Collier points out that Germany and Ireland went back to hand counting after realizing the vulnerabilities with electronic voting. In 2009, Germany's Constitutional Court "upheld the basic principle of the public nature of democratic elections" and ruled that the "vote count must be something the public can authenticate." In 2012, Ireland's Environmental Minister sent their machines to the recycling center. He called computerized voting a “poorly conceived, scandalous waste of money.”
#HandCountedBallotsNow!
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There used to be concern about the vulnerabilities with computerized voting, but then it became taboo to talk about it.
- NYT: Computer Voting Is Open to Easy Fraud, Experts Say
- Wall Street Journal: Reversing Course on Electronic Voting
- Washington Post: [Maryland Governor] Ehrlich Wants Paper Ballots for Nov. Vote
- NPR: The Approaching 2006 E-Voting Train Wreck
Why would election officials destroy the ballots during pending litigation and before 22 months as required by federal law?
Politico: Experts [Say] Broward’s Election Chief Broke Law Destroying Ballots https://tinyurl.com/ybkktvf9
Steven Rosenfeld: In Violation of Federal Law, Ohio's 2004 Presidential Election Records [and Ballots] Are Destroyed or Missing https://tinyurl.com/y9eo4ovp
We don't conduct banking without a transparent and verifiable process, why are we putting blind faith in secret vote counts?
Mark Crispin Miller: Can US Elections Really Be Stolen? Yes. https://tinyurl.com/y96scqlt
“There are some very realistic and feasible solutions to this horrific problem, solutions that other countries have used. We need hand-counted paper ballots, counted out in the open. We need to get rid of computerized voting. We need to get rid of the private interests involved in the system. We need people to be registered automatically on their birthdays. And we need to make Election Day a national holiday. These are certain basic reforms that we can do and that will actually return this country to its people.”
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For about a decade the NY Times kept demanding that NY needed to go to computerized voting, while I kept writing them letters pointing out that the old voting machines couldn't be hacked, except by mechanics, one at a time.
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Shorter version: increasing income inequality was masked in the lead-up to the Financial Crisis. Concurrently, establishment "centrist" foreign policy positions led to disaster in Iraq and Libya and strengthened Iran. The Financial Crisis made the true extent of income inequality apparent. Establishment pursuit of free trade is now recognized to have played a key role in the loss between 1999 and 2004 of one in three US manufacturing jobs. These failures have destroyed establishment parties of the center and center-left in both the US and Europe.
In the US centrists, who are largely discredited for the very excellent reason that their policies failed, are hoping to use disgust with Trump as a way back to power. This is possible, and perhaps even likely. In Europe this seems less likely.
Bad things result from establishment failure and the results are clear to see. Should the establishment regain power, it will restore a badly needed sense of decency, but I see little evidence it understands the extent of its prior failures or the inadequacy of the solutions it proposes.
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I do not get the obsession of Profesor Krugman with the Euro.
Yes it is a unified currency, but workers in Spain and Greece still earn less than their counterparts in Germany and France,
so local production is still cheaper. Not as much as before the Euro, but still less.
The real problem may lie elsewhere, and in the same place where our problems lie, China. The EU has an imbalance with China of close to 180 Billion Euros, and that imbalance is growing.
But the statistics do not tell the entire story. A big problem for countries like Spain, Portugal, Greece is that even if they are cheaper than France they are still more expensive than China,
and then they are not getting the investments, the plants that were expected as a result of joinning the EU.
People forget that the opening of trade with China by the EU coincided with the later expansion of the EU and those latter countries were left hanging.
And I did not read that in a book. I was watching closely when it happened.
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I would like to add that I visited Spain the first time in 1970 and I´ve been there some 20 times after that and I can say without any hesitation that Spain is a thousand times better today, crisis or not that it was then when there was poverty everywhere, when most houses did not have bathrooms and children still died from common illnesses.
Blaming the Euro for Europe economic woes is like blaming Obamacare for our healthcare crisis .Is confusing a solution that may not have worked up to a 100 percent but that id did work mostly with the underlying problem.
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He's obsessed with it because of national (not EU) trade balances which impact national debt levels. Right now, the ECB is maintaining a weaker Euro to help prop up Italy, Greece, etc. and keep them from borrowing. But that's leading to huge trade surpluses in Germany and a depressed real estate market... which has ripple effects globally. China is a big issue, but the imbalances within the EU in terms of debt loads, available funds for welfare states, etc. are exacerbated by the euro, and those exacerbate immigration flows. Both fuel ethnonationalism, when coupled with fear, elites being out of touch with local values (Poland), etc.
2
When the little guy feels sold out by large forces beyond their control which don't jibe with their expectations, they will vote against the status quo. That will always be the case. Offshoring of jobs made unions useless here. Thus fewer employed individuals. Add to that the downward trajectory of culture with it's coursening and loosening morality, which has now made it easier for folks to walk away from their responsibilities or never even step up in the first place.
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Mr. Krugman blames the Euro for everything he can criticize in Europe. But Italy's problem is not the Euro but the Italians themselves who are not able to modernize their economy, administration and judiciary. Similar issues in Greece. I am from south-west Flanders of Belgium (the Texas of Belgium). The economy is thriving. Employers cannot find enough workers. The reason: the members of my tribe work hard, are organized and enjoy life. They also consume large quantities of beer. Mr. Krugman, maybe the wine is to blame for the woos of southern Europe.
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Werbrouck's first sentence is mistaken.
5
That's an awfully bigoted assertion sir and it's part of the problem in Europe - blame southern Europeans for not being just like Northern Europeans. Instead, why don't you recognize the fact that we all have something to contribute and few nations have contributed to the beauty of world, to its art, its history, its music, nearly as much as Italy and Greece.
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@ sofia...... he said he came from the "texas of belgium". the rest of his remark is consistent with that sentiment.
The problem with six decades of peace is that people think systems are much more stable and robust than they are, that they can demand radical changes WITHIN a system that will actually have difficulty accommodating those changes. And then catastrophe comes suddenly. Both the non-liberal left and the Republican party are pretty sure that their dangerous activities won't do much damage, while getting their own constituents and allies more power. And that's how the institutions of peace and apparent stability collapse.
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Nonliberal left? A disorganized assortment almost wholly without power? Be serious.
5
hmmmm..... i have had the same thought.... "they no not what they do"...... when democrats blow it? it's easy to believe. but with republicans? there is way too much evidence and their own statements of drownings in bath tubs, and wishing for democratic presidential failures for me to be believe this is anything but intentional. it's been 40 years of this one now it has reached it's zenith with trump. if they can't see the harm now i have to believe this was the goal along.
5
What is "almost" about the pathological false equivalence that the so-called liberal, so-called mainstream media continue to indulge in?
Paul, you and I are both progressives, but we are both passionate and pragmatic about where policy should go. This gets us slammed by people to our left who have a vision of a solution, but no coherent way from here to there except for the very same imaginary fairies that the other side invokes. The inconvenient truth is that reality has a center-left bias, with the ends being on the leftward end of the spectrum, but the means borrowing temporarily from the central part of the spectrum, and change is never, ever instantaneous. This is as true in Western Europe as it is in North America.
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=jUga
January 30, 2018
Real Gross Domestic Product per working age population * for Euro Area, Italy and Germany, 2007-2017
* Aged 15-64
(Indexed to 2007)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=jUg6
January 30, 2018
Real Gross Domestic Product per working age population * for Euro Area, Italy and Germany, 2007-2017
* Aged 15-64
(Percent change)
1
"It was one of history’s miracles..."
There are no miracles. Redemption comes with truth, reconciliation, and reparations. We're not yet had those, on either side of the pond.
Neoliberalism. specifically what we know as triangulation, is what is bringing us all down. Triangulation is a euphemism for what is the expression of selfishness into policy, wrapped in a cocoon of false adherence to a particular dogma all the while giving the other side everything it wants in exchange for some glory. In other words, the political classes sold out their bases and, as a result, the masses are looking for the leadership and policy they always wanted, while electing politicians who are moving those even further away.
Yes, redemption will be very, very hard, as the establishments are redoubling their efforts to keep their lock on what power they have. In the U.S., both parties are jockeying into position for the mid-term elections, with one party doing its level best to sweep away its renegades behind the scenes, and the other, having an unprecedented number of retirees among its elected ranks, using the White House to court officials allied with its base.
Radicalization is happening on both sides, not just the GOP. The more centrists continue to push away progressives, the less interest and wins it will continue to see in upcoming elections. Progressives, after 2016, were sure they would be given their rightful place in the party this time. There's always 2020?
---
www.rimaregas.com
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A couple of years ago, neuroscientist, Paul Verhaege, wrote:
"We tend to perceive our identities as stable and largely separate from outside forces. But over decades of research and therapeutic practice, I have become convinced that economic change is having a profound effect not only on our values but also on our personalities. Thirty years of neoliberalism, free-market forces and privatisation have taken their toll, as relentless pressure to achieve has become normative. If you’re reading this sceptically, I put this simple statement to you: meritocratic neoliberalism favours certain personality traits and penalises others."
https://www.rimaregas.com/2014/10/03/neoliberalism-has-brought-out-the-w...
"“The idea behind triangulation is to work hard to solve the problems that motivate the other party’s voters, so as to defang them politically… The essence of triangulation is to use your party’s solutions to solve the other side’s problems. Use your tools to fix their car.”
The problem with that is that triangulation has not quite worked out that way. “Their car” wasn’t what was actually being fixed. "
https://www.rimaregas.com/2017/09/04/triangulation-when-neoliberalism-is...
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A nice story, but not one supported by facts. So far, the off-year and special elections have seen wins for moderate Democrats (eg, Ralph North in VA, Doug Jones in AL, Conor Lamb in PA), whilst the so-called Progressives have bupkes (ie, no wins), and turnout amongst Democrats is well up on previous off-year/special elections.
If the "Bernie bros" start taking over the party, we should prepare ourselves for another 4 years of Trump, and would be entirely our own fault. Given that Hillary lost an election that should have been a slam-dunk, it would not surprise me in the least if the Dems sabotage their, and our, best hope.
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Danny,
Steny Hoyer did something ugly
https://theintercept.com/2018/04/26/steny-hoyer-audio-levi-tillemann/
Other centrists did other ugly things and the media reported on them.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/04/3...
As for bubkes, well... That's not exactly true.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/democratic-women-win-primar...
There are others...
Progressives are Democrats. Sidelining them in the belief they'll eventually roll over is a myth. A thousand lost legislative seats prove that. Centrists will learn to play nice, one way or another.
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