The picture of the meeting between Mr. Suh and Shinzo Abe in this article caught my attention more than the article itself. I noticed that South Korean delegates who paid visits to the Japanese Prime Minister in the past (e.g. the Speaker of the Korean National Assembly Syekyun Chung or Foreign Minister Kyungwha Kang) were offered a bland, pink armchair that paled in comparison to the flamboyant one that Mr. Abe sat on. Interestingly enough, Mr. Suh this time is sitting on an armchair that looks identical to that of Mr. Abe. Perhaps this is a subtle move implying that Japanese government is finally (albeit reluctantly) recognizing the importance of South Korea's role in this region and is showing some decorum that is long overdue.
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Mr. Abe is finding out that playing golf and becoming 'friend' of Trump is not enough. In fact, the US under Trump has no longer friends and allies; just trading/business partners.
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The fact that negotiations are on overshadows all else. As hard as it is to believe that Soul and the Korean peninsula can be turned into war zone. Syria, Libya, New York, and Sarajevo are reminders that it can happen. Trump, like him or not, is one of the best negotiators on the planet. I am putting my money on Donald Trump.
Japan needs adversarial North Korea in order to maintain the geopolitical status quo. With the North Korean problem removed, the US and China could work closer for cooperation, leaving Japan odd man out in the region. And the current Trump/Kim/Moon rapport is making them anxious because that is a reminder of that possibility.
Expect Japan to oppose the US troop withdrawal from South Korea and the normalization of the relationship with North Korea. They just want North Korea denuclearized with everything else remaining the same.
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I can see a situation where NK says it will denuclearize and China says, we will do the monitoring. Trump says, I love it and thanks to me I have solved the problem and we will reduce our troop presence, while Japan says, you have been conned. Who would you believe?
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PM Abe probably has much bigger fears at the moment, given that a scandal he thought he'd buried with last year's snap election has resurfaced with a vengeance in the last couple of weeks. Growing demonstrations around the Cabinet Office are calling for him to resign. Even if he toughs it out, the scandal threatens his ambition to win a 3rd term as party leader in September, and also to push the first-ever revisions to Japan's postwar constitution through the Diet and a popular referendum by 2020. At the moment he's scrambling to stay politically relevant, not just diplomatically relevant.
The notion that steps to restore Abe's rapport with Trump will benefit him is dubious. People here have a very low opinion of Mr Trump, and Abe's "rapport" generally isn't seen in a flattering light -- it's seen as brown-nosing of a very abject sort by most people other than Abe's strongest partisans. One shouldn't forget that each of Mr Abe's "landslides" since 2012 has been achieved with a minority of votes cast -- the majority of votes cast in all 5 national elections since then have been against the ruling coalition.
In Japan, the scandal is a much bigger story than Trump's meeting with the DPRK. The next election, probably sometime this year, will be about Abe's attempting an easy win by catching the opposition off-guard, in order to justify his getting that 3rd term. (The PM can call an election whenever he wishes.) Korea and Trump won't have anything to do with it.
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This isn't the first time we pulled a surprise on our most trusted friend in Asia. Ask Eisaku Sato the former Prime Minister of Japan. He was Pro-Taiwan and followed the U.S. line in foreign policy to the letter until he got jolt of a lifetime--Nixon is visiting China. And Nixon didn't even bother consulting him before accepting the invitation. Once is bad enough but twice? I can't imagine what the Japanese who value loyalty think of us. Let's hope the meeting with Kim will lead to the removal of nukes in the Korean peninsula and all will be forgiven. If not, the Japanese may need to start looking for friends elsewhere.
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The U.S. shouldn't need Japan's approval to do anything. The U.S-Japan relationship has long been one of the tail wagging the dog. This needs to stop and the U.S. has to starts protecting its interests first and foremost.
The U.S. runs its second biggest trade deficit with Japan (next only to China) to the tune of USD 70 Billion annually. This huge trade imbalance is largely due to Japan's horrendous tariff and non-tariff barriers against American products. Make no mistake, Japan is the most closed market in the world. At the same time, Japanese products get totally free and unfettered access to the U.S. market and this is something Japan has fully exploited.
Japan has also benefitted tremendously from American military protection, since the U.S. has spent tens of Billions of dollars protecting Japan over the years. This has allowed Japan to allocate its resources towards developing its economy while subsidizing and developing its huge government-corporate export machine. This in turn hurts American companies and competitiveness. So, it has been a double whammy for the U.S.
Given these factors, Japan needs the U.S. as a friend much more that the U.S. needs Japan. I'm always surprised by comments like yours, since what exactly is it that Japan has ever done for the U.S. and in what way has Japan been loyal to America? It has always put its own interests first, something which the U.S. is just waking up to now.
Trump shares the spotlight with no one.
It's an open secret within American diplomatic circles that Japan and America have divergent goals when it comes to North Korea. While a peaceful solution to this issue is beneficial to the U.S., a resolution to the North Korean issue is not in Japan's geopolitical interests. So, Japan favors a continuation of the hostile and antagonistic relationship between the U.S. and North Korea.
Japan's two biggest threats and enemies in the region are China and South Korea. As long as North Korea stays belligerent and hostile, it damages both these countries politically and economically. It especially hurts China politically by creating a wedge of distrust between the U.S. and China. Anything that hurts China is a win in Japan's eyes.
A peaceful resolution to the issue would also pay significant financial dividends to South Korea, whose economy and geopolitical standing would be enhanced due to the security and stability this would bring to the Korean peninsula. Since Japan considers South Korea to be a key competitor, this is not something Japan wishes for.
The status-quo and continuation of tensions on the Korean peninsula is in Japan's interests, not least because it further solidifies the U.S.-Japan alliance. This alliance is of critical importance to Japan economically and militarily and one it will go to great lengths to preserve. However, it does not serve American interests, which is why Trump has decided to move forward without Japan's involvement. It's a smart move.
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The Japanese have every reason to mistrust Korea. Both North and South Korean governments have been rallying their people with hatred of Japan, even though the war ended over 70 years ago. The South reneged on agreements with Japan after accepting payments and treaties. After North Korea fired rockets over the Japan population centers, Mr Abe has every right to protect its people. Japan is our most important ally in the region, and we must respect that.
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You have neglected to mention why Korea has had a checkered past with Japan, namely the colonial period when an Imperial Japan occupied Korea.
I would say it is more so Koreans who do not trust Japan's intentions, additionally, South Korea is much an American ally as Japan though different in temperament and situation.
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Ronn, Korea was "colonial" ruled by just about every major country in Asia. China and Russia each had their turn with Korea. Then Japan arrived and kicked China and Russia out. Then the US kicked Japan out and the US is still there today. Each of these countries used and abused Korea. The US government is now facing accusations from former Korean prostitutes of being forced to service US soldiers. Before the US, it was Japan. However as "Ronn" mentioned above Japan and Korea agreed on a cash settlement and apology for the Korean prostitutes that was solicited for the service of the Japanese Army in WWII. The Korean "comfort women" will now receive millions and become the highest paid call girls in history. The Korean comfort women who have been comforting US soldiers are now asking for money. If I was Japan I would not trust Korea either. Especially Rocket Man.
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I am well aware of the way Japan treated its colony Korea. In 1965 both Korea and Japan signed aggrements to recognize the injustice done and move on. The US, British, France or Poland, do not continue to rally their people to hate Germany because of thei Nazi past. They have signed a peace treaty and moved on to avoid the mistakes of the past. Korea continues to sow the seeds of mistrust against the Japanese people that only helps the Kim dynasty propaganda machine.
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Mr. Abe is probably not surprised finding himself left out of Mr. Trump's calculations.
After all, that happens to all of Mr. Trump's "friends".
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I fear just thinking about Trump negotiating with the N. Koreans. In his short term in office, Mr. Trump has displayed his lack of statecraft in many instances through his comments regarding NATO to the way he's mishandled our allies. His reality TV stance isn't what's required in negotiations with NK. The US is now stepping up to bat in these negotiations and he's already displayed his lack of statecraft by not inviting Prime Minister Abe from Japan, NK's neighbor through geography. Japanese leaders may believe these negotiations are a matter of life and death for their country. It's not enough that he slapped Japan in the face by forgetting a chair at the negotiating table, he implemented a tax on their steel exports to the USA? Could this be a coincidence? If so, it shows a disdain for Japan, their leaders and their people. To make matters worse, we have a man who claims to have a bigger nuclear button than his opponent sitting down to negotiate terms of an agreement that include nuclear weapons. He claims he doesn't read very much. I do hope he remembers studying President Roosevelt's diplomatic policy about speaking softly and carrying a big stick. Those that are secure in their being don't have to announce the size of their stick at every opportunity.
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The Japanese government is worried that Mr.Trump will admit North Korea to arm nuclear weapons instead of abandoning nuclear missiles reaching the United States. I think that Mr.Trump wants the military tension will continue on the Korean Peninsula so that Japan will continue to buy American weapons.
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Mr. Trump impulsively shoots from the lip without warning or consultation with his advisors or congress, why should our foreign allies be any different?
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I think most foreign governments see Trump for what he is, a buffoon and an embarrassment to the free world.
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Left behind? Really? Given the quality of the two people involved in the talks that will never take place?
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Mr. Abe:
You need to think about developing your own nuclear deterrent if N. Korea does not give up their nukes very soon. The unfortunate truth is that the United states is no longer a reliable ally and you need to be able to deter NK with your own defense forces.
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I wouldn't trust Trump either. He'd sell out Japan to North Korea without hesitation.
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Every hug with Trump ends with a knife in your back.
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I hope this is a lesson to others (both nationally and internationally): the Trump administration is run by incompetents & sycophants who don't have the capacity to care or concern themselves with others. they are only in it for themselves.
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"“North Korea has been playing a game of saying one thing and later on saying, ‘Oh, what we really meant by this was this and that,’”"
Sounds like he could be referring to the Trump administration.
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"Other analysts said better communication with Mr. Abe was no guarantee that Mr. Trump would not act impulsively or make damaging concessions in a meeting with Mr. Kim."
It's really sad to see Japan chasing wildly after Donald Trump, as if just dumped by a suitor one cannot let go of.
Yes, of course, Mr. Abe wants to remain relevant but I'd urge him to be cautious and see how things play out. His own personal troubles aside, perhaps clinging to the erratic US president could end up being more trouble than it's worth.
Nobody knows where any of this ends up, because for all his tough talk, Donald Trump is easily manipulated by the right kind of praise. Any astute leader--and Kim Jong-un, though barbarous, is clearly astute--will see how to handle our president.
I hope he doesn't give away the store, but I still think Mr. Abe may, in the end, be glad he's had to maintain a forced distance.
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