Are porn actresses who do not work because they rely on settlements from the president included in these numbers?
4
Thanks again, Obama!
9
Reading the negative comments and doom and gloom from the left is hilarious. Remember, "It's the economy, stupid!"
2
It's unbelievable to read the negative posts from liberals here suffering TDS who just can't comprehend or accept Trump's success.
The worst are those who try to claim the economy is a result of Obama's policies!
When I ask the which of Obama's policies is responsible for the economy, they only stare into the distance with uncomprehending, stupid, glazed eyes.
3
The NY Times could have gone with a headline stating "The Economy Is Looking Wonderfully Strong." Instead, the NY Times chose the headline "The Economy is Looking Awfully Strong."
A Freudian slip? Praise for President Trump, in the NY Times, is very hard to achieve.
4
Any discussion of employment should begin with the BLS U-6 and NOT U-3. U-3 was tailor made for politicians, economists and other assorted liars and idiots.
It’s quite amazing that the dotard’s repeated calls of “fake news” whenever Barack’s job numbers (or, actually anything good about Barack’s anything) was repeated endlessly in the press, they almost had us believing they were not true.
And now, not a word from anyone that these numbers is “fake news.” Wow, Reagan was called the Teflon president. And this character, with his never-ending daily lies, insanities, paranoid everything, is automatically believed. I guess there is a new word for a “Teflon president,” in 2018 it’s called...
Give me a break.
4
It is so disappointing to see the Times and its columnists and analysts continuing to use the generic term “jobs”.
To use an analogy everyone knows, suppose your kid an ounces that they have finally heard your nutritional pleas, and they’ve eaten a whopping six pieces of fruit. “Wow, honey,” you say, “wow, honey, that’s great!” Excited, you check the fruit bowl. What six pieces are gone? Is it some combination of apples and oranges? Was a banana involved? All that calcium! The Vitamin C! Minerals you can’t even name? Your kid will be stronger than ever. Grades will go up! Maybe they’ll even move ahead in sports and stamina.
And then you look at the fruit bowl. You study a few minutes, confused that it totally looks the same. You check the trash for cores and peels. Nothing. What was your child announcing?
Then you check one more place, in the fridge, that new bag of grapes you were planning to set out tonite. Someone has opened it, and one of the stems sports tiny shreds. You count them sadly. Yep, six they are.Six pieces of fruit.
Sadly you look back at the bowl on the dining room table. There they all sit, the apples, bananas, oranges you hoped would become your kid’s afternoon snack. Your kid has no intention of eating any big fruit. Six little grapes, that’s gonna be it. Forever.
So it is with these “jobs”. Forget raises, vacations, pensions. There’s no security because someone decreed our future belongs to “disrupters.”
Six little grapes. That’s all we get.
3
Interesting not one mention of President Trump in this. Yet the NYT is desperate to let us know this is just year nine of an economic expansion, albeit a real good year. That is mentioned THREE times.
That’s a bit dishonest. When you lose objectivity you lose credibility.
3
I would argue that this economic recovery kicked in under the Trump Presidency. The anemic economy of the Obama administration was a result of the lack of confidence and trust by American business.
3
Thank goodness we have Trump and not Hillary. Hillary has never enriched anyone except herself.
3
Just now...
1800 Australian Eastern Summertime 10 March 2018.
Prime Minister announced according to 7 News Australia exempted from tariff....conditional upon unspecified security relationship, small print to come.
Apparently negotiated during 20 minute "phone chat".
Perhaps Mr Turnbull would have lectured his new mate on the PM's new edict on standards of ministerial financial, sexual and general ethical conduct.
But I doubt it.
Trump has backed down from a self goal, (inadvertently kicking a goal for the wrong team). The Tariff would cost more US jobs than created including those retained by Blue Scope Steel of Australia that employs 3,000 Americans.
I doubt it.
Trump argues that for national security reasons America must process its own iron. The attack on the Canadian aircraft jobs is not forgotten.
The BBC reports:
Saudi Arabia has moved closer to a deal to buy 48 Typhoon fighter jets, UK aerospace giant BAE Systems.
Australia is building French designed subs.
News of new ferry wharves in New Jersey convenient to new housing for the homeless would be good news.
I doubt it.
20 minutes on the phone?
Perhaps Mal and Don shed tears over their continuous subterranean approval ratings.
Highly probable.
Having lost economic credibility and mates in Canada, the UK and Europe I bet Don and Mal will make friends with a new mate in North Korea.
The first issue to resolve is the location and return of US and Australian war dead.
I hope.
be
2
I think it’s looking a little too strong...reminds me of 2006...
1
I'm very glad this article takes pain to underscore for the reader that the recent good news of our phenomenal economic expansion is a trend that dates back a number of years – and therefore the Orange King doesn't get to own it!
However, factoid, it doesn't date back just nine years as this article casually asides – (which, by the way for you readers who might not note the coincidence, happens to be the hour President Obama took office) – but quite a bit earlier. To 1845 in fact!
Thank you President Polk!
2
I am surprised and then again, not surprised that you give no credit to the POTUS for this expansion.
The fact of the matter is that removing regulatory burden is as good as cutting costs.
Even the public pronouncements of cutting two regs for one new one - are a medicine to the sick economy we "enjoyed" over previous 8 years.
Pay no heed to the Wall Street which has become more an echo chamber. And with algorithmic laden computer driven trading, Dow Jones should hardly be a barometer for a sound economy.
I concur with comments below about labor participation.
I worked in the oil patch for 45 years and not a day without a job.
Yet, I cannot think of how these 37% or so are not "participating" in this economy or any economy for that matter.
In America, where we value work and respect who work to support their families, this is a tragedy that needs to be addressed.
Finally, we should also get past this nonsense of the Fed's managing the economy. The Congress created Fed's for two reasons: full employment and stable prices.
All this nonsense of aiming for an inflation rate and a "natural unemployment" rate is "on one hand, but in the other hand" economic bull.
3
Four words: Make America Great Again! Trump is awesome.
1
The economy will do great under Trump. But our quality of life will plummet.
2
Get rid of a few more environmental regulations and who knows how far this run can go!
1
A few houses getting built and the head line is ominously saying the "The Economy is looking awful strong"?
Only big Pharma and Hedge fund managers can make money? God forbid a nail banger can go out and make a buck in the U.S.
The biggest employer in the U.S. is in housing, not Walmart.
It's about time. (And, thanks Obama, for eight years of housing stagnation.)
1
Isn't it great that nine years ago, in a time of great financial peril for our nation, when the cratering financial system was threatening to bring the entire economy down (ahh, living in your car would not be that bad!) that our President at the time, the super businessman Donald Trump set us on a course of economic rejuvenation that still is going on today!
Yes!
Nine years into one of the longest expansions in our history all because in 2009, newly elected President Trump took decisive action with a stimulus program and a rescue package for the reviled financial industry - even in the face of opposition from the powerful Republican party!
But Trump did it!
And he alone deserves credit for wisdom and cool and foresight and intellectual grasp that led us to policies that led, nine years later, to the robust economy we see today.
Donald Trump!
What a shame that meanie Barack Obama questioned his citizenship.
Can you imagine!!!
4
Quite a bit of active rooting against the economy on the NYT board ...but that shouldnt be a surprise. A whole lot of "gee whiz, this isn't happening where i live".
People, the American economy is coming back alive under the leadership of President Donald J. Trump. Hiring is up, wages are up, and Q1 growth of our economy could test 4%. This is absolutely huge.
We need to keep posting solid results like this.
1
What a shock that when you give an already strong economy the biggest stimulus in decades with the Trump tax cuts that it goes into overdrive. The issue is whether it's going to go into dangerous inflation soon, too, which would guarantee big rate increases from the Fed and a sure recession as a result. The Republicans did all they could under Obama to retard growth by NOT stimulating the economy. Now they've absurdly overstimulated it for the same political gain in reverse. Too bad the little people will be the ones they wipe out again when their crash comes. Obama and the Fed game us a true Goldilocks economy that would have grown slowly but surely for a long time more if not overstimulated. Then the Republican dunces elected a hot dog to run the economy into the ground by temporarily goosing its growth. Soon these voters will get theirs.
3
What major policy change was passed (by the Republican-controlled Congress) in December that might play a role in this? Oh, there was the major tax reform bill. Interesting how the NYTimes can't even bring itself to mention that and what influence (big, medium, small) it is having on the economy and the return to the labor market of hundreds of thousands of people who had lost all hope since 2008. By the way, who was President from 2009-17 when all those people lost hope?
4
Sorry leftists, You cant have it both ways this is Trump's economy. You predicted that the sky was going to fall, and the opposite has happened. Unemployment cant keep going down at the same rate, there is going to be diminishing returns. Obama was elected at the end of one of the biggest depressions - his term in office must see growth regardless of his policies. The media fudged many of the stats to boost his lackluster performance - like using worker participation rates instead raw unemployment. Something we are seeing significantly boosted under Trump. Trumps focus has been on the economy while the media has been on scandal and fake news. And these astounding numbers are due to tax cuts and deregulation. And where is the reporting on Obama Era Scandals - the latest one being the obstruction of Justice of investigation of Hezbollah? Or the FISA abuse? OR the revelation that under his FBI and DOJ they exonerated Hillary for a host of crimes and covered up evidence? And those are only a few after he left office. The Future will tell what kind of president Obama was, and you are not going to like it.
7
How much debt does the average household have? More than 2007? Supporting and defending Trump is a hard job, take all the false credit needed.
Considering that the "recovery" never replaced the jobs lost in the Great Recession and was the poorest "recovery" since the end of WWII, this little burst is not at all surprising. Another problem about this recovery even more than the ones over the previous 30 years is the quality of the new jobs. Greeters at Home Depot or Walmart do not effectively replace line workers in factories. Even those who still have good jobs are seeing their wages/salaries stagnate or decline. There is still a LOT of slack in the labor market. Main Street has not recovered from the Republican Great Recession.
The Upshot of all this is that the author is playing games with numbers. As the old saying goes, "Figures don't lie, but liars figure."
2
300K jobs? Awfully strong economy? Are you joking.
We have tens of millions of folks sitting on the sidelines has they have for years, under-employed, part time employed, intermittently employed.
And most of those 300K jobs, don't pay enough to cover the cost of living, especially the cost of keeping a roof over one's head.
Which is why in most major cities in places like California, a significant number of the working population, lives out of cars, tent, spare bedrooms of friends and family and other work arounds for excessive housing costs beyond salaries paid.
It's just weird to read this article in the NYT.
NYT usually has a more realistic perspective.
2
Dream along with me, wait till the tax cuts really come in and the embargo that surely is going to happen with that person white house. Plust is still is the Obama economy still. This year will be the telling fact that the Republicans attempt to rewrite history and ignore the fact their policies never ever worked.
1
"Yes, it would be nice to see paychecks rise faster, but the saving grace of the fact that they aren’t is that it allows the Fed a little more room for patience."
Just let that sink in. Good God.
Hey, Neil Irwin: I've got a PhD. I've been working really hard the last ten years. I even got a big promotion. Want to know how much more I make now, in inflation-adjusted dollars, compared to 2008?
Three percent.
I imagine I'm not alone when I threw up a little in my mouth while reading the headline that the economy is looking "awfully strong."
Is anybody else out there tired of getting "crumbs" (with all due acknowledgment to Nancy Pelosi) in this supposedly "strong" economy?
4
More people employed is far better than less people employed -- the expansion is heating up. Next questions -- how long will it last and what will the Federal Reserve do?
1
The economy doesn't look strong to the under employed or the unemployed living at or below the poverty line. The economy doesn't look strong to those who were given little or no access to a decent public education, making it impossible for them to improve their circumstances.
The jobs report doesn't consider those forced into working 2 or 3 low paying jobs to feed their families.
For those at or below the poverty line who cannot afford healthcare for themselves or their families, the economic reports aren't worth the cyber paper their printed on. Countless Americans suffer and die in this "strong" economy. Acting like they don't exist is offensive at best, and horrific in reality.
Our preamble does not read, "WE, some of the people."
Per usual, this rosy economic report is devoid of human (and humane) understanding.
A positive article on the economy from the NYT rather surprises me, but good for them. I stopped short, however, when reading repeatedly that this extreme growth had gone on for nine years. Things were improving but the less than 2% annual growth was what Obama called the "new normal" and he had no intention of growing it to this extreme the last 15 months of powerful growth is on the current Administration relaxing regulations, etc, whether one likes him or not.
5
The Times, along with the rest of the journalistic world, frequently cites the "deep government," but misidentifies it with the federal bureaucracy, which is in fact the real government.
The DEEP government is made up of businessmen and businesses who have the means to stimulate or dampen the economy through their hiring, lending, and purchasing decisions. And apparently having one of their own in the White House has stirred them to action.
The bottom line is that the economy's vigor IS a result of Trump's election, but that it's more than a little bit sleazy that it took electing one of their own to get the business community to do what they could have been doing all along.
1
How sad that Trump will get the credit for the heavy lifting Obama put in. Destroying an economy can be done in a week; repairing one takes a much longer time. I remember Jimmy Carter strangling inflation with very high interest rates only to have Reagan walk in and take credit.
For those who hope the electorate will learn... give it up.
3
What happened to the "new normal" slow growth of the 8 years ending in 2017? And where are all these new employees coming from? Could it be all those people who had lost HOPE are now realizing America is coming back?
4
Why do people persist in using "awful" and "awfully" as a modifier when they want to express something positive? That's positive in the arithmetic sense.
2
1. Unemployment for black Americans declined from 7.7% to 6.9% month to month and from 8.1% to 6.9% year over year.
2. The unemployment rate for people with less than a HS diploma has declined from 7.6% to 5.7% YOY and the unemployment rate for high school graduates, no college, has declined from 4.9% to 4.4% during the same period.
3. The number of people unemployed for more than 26 weeks (the so-called hard core unemployed) has declined from 1.766 million to 1.397 million year over year. The discouraged workers numbers have declined from 522,000 to 373,000 over the same period.
4. People who are part time for economic reasons declined YOY from 5.67 million to 5.16 million.
You have to be in denial, or an elitist ideologue, not to see the reality that things are getting much better economically for people in the bottom quintile (and also people of color).
5
According to the Tea Party big mouths, slow but steady growth has ruined the fixed income people and any deficits would be detrimental to our children and their children. Now that they have Trump, and with the Republicans' "help," many employed got a one time bonus of a thousand dollars, really a form of home equity line people were so accustomed to in 2007 before the bottom fell off in 2008, one has to wonder how it will be working in a year or so, let alone the next couple of decades.
Perhaps one should save this column and check back periodically.
I keep hearing about this great economy but frankly the number of Middle Class in my area are not on the receiving end except for hirings. As far as wages and benefits there still seems to be stagnation, and prices are creeping up.
4
Something from my micro perspective seems wrong. My tech company is not producing, we are taking on risky investments, the stock is soaring on speculation. We aren’t hiring. Suddenly this month I’m being bombarded with emails from 3rd party recruiters to do contract work at low wages. I see the warnings about another looming bank crisis. Am I living in some kind of alternate economy ?
6
Rosy picture if you ignore, as you do, (1) the historical evolution of the median wage over the last 40 years expressed in constant dollars: no gain, (2) the unequal distribution of rates of wage increases from the poor to the rich, (3) the number of people who have two jobs to survive, (4) the added cost of social benefits destroyed in the recent budget, and in preceding budgets. That is is you ignore the obscene level of inequality of income and wealth, the return to the "vile maxim: all for us, and nothing for the rest".
14
Don't we usually get glowing reports like this right before the bottom falls out. I seem to remember a short while back that modern economics had effectively made the boom-bust nature of capitalism a thing of the past and even attenuated the business cycle. We all know how that turned out.
8
Economists must be the most unhappy profession. They always have something to worry about. Inflation is either too high or too low, never enough. High unemployment is bad until low unemployment could trigger inflation. Wages stagnated lead to the middle class' demise until wage increases could overheat the economy. I wonder if it is all talk, they always know what happened (which we do too, without the fancy analysis), never what will happen.
6
What about the seniors? Also the jobs aren't paying as much which leaves the working people still in a bind. Trump and his minions are great at self congratulations while this upturn has been building for years.
9
I wonder if this snapshot of the national economy is hopeful for the towns and cities that were left behind by the economic recovery. Regions in decline are typically the last to recover and often are still way behind when the next downturn happens.
7
Although the economy has been growing for 9 years from a point of view of % growth from the bottom we still have a long way to go to match the average between recessions. Therefore the question is what is the more relevant factory years or % growth.
6
"Nine years into an economic expansion, jobs reports don’t get much better than this."
------------------
Itwasn't too long ago that the previous occupant of the Oval Office was critized for not stoking fiscal policy to boost the economy. Obama's eight years in office prior to President Trump's one year of questionable fiscal policy directions were, in retrospect, a reason for the economic recovery without inflation: Obama's advisers and FED Chair Ben Bernanke did what other previous administrations failed to do - hold a steady course of recovery and avoid the inclination to over-spend by increasing public debt when economic adjustments were on course. In other words, trade tariffs and increasing public debt by reducing taxes on the wealthiest Americans does little to change the current steady growth but may result in inflationary pressure before President Trump's first term is completed.
7
Government cannot manage the economy. That is what "new normal" was. Government can get out of the way so that opportunities develop through will, ingenuity, and HOPE, for all those people who had lost it, unable, left the workforce, are finding work again. [if you are open to a concept upon which this country was born]
2
Of course, one group who is not participating in this greatness is seniors whose income is mostly through Social Security. Those of us who have pensions or investments may benefit from run-ups in the stock market. However, folks on the lower end more dependent upon SS won't see much in raises as long a there is little inflation. My SS went up a whole fat $8/month this year - the first raise since I retired in 2015 (it was a somewhat bigger raise of $33, but the rest was directed into Medicare premiums). While I have other resources, many seniors do not.
Some may think that if inflation is low, seniors' costs don't raise, but that is bunk. The rent goes up every year; taxes raise; food costs increase etc. etc.
Interest rate increases would increase income from fixed instruments like CDs, bank accounts. A little more inflation might bring a decent increase in the monthly check. Either way, years of both low rates and low inflation has been a hard road for many older adults.
11
The economy is looking strong for who ? Those working in low wage or service sectors, exploited professionals like adjunct professors, the already wealthy who continue to gain gambling in the stock market while they consolidate their sense of entitlement ? These statistics are misleading and pretty much meaningless. The income gap continues to dangerously widen, too many still don't earn a liveable wage, too many are exploited by those at the top and tens of thousands still have not regained their financial foothold after the Great Recession. The economy is not strong and job growth is meaningless in light of all of the above.
13
Yes, it’s fair to say that a certain segment of the population is doing well—the entrenched meritocracy, under 50, mostly living in coastal urban enclaves—but much of the flyover country is still suffering . My question is, whom will these long-suffering folks blame in November? Will they finally realize they are victims of the billionaire class, including its latest avatar, Donald Trump? Or, will they stick doggedly with their gluehead president?
13
They will stick with him, come *hell or high water".
All of this is happening without printing $85B per month for 46 months? Or was that $85B per year. It depends on who is reporting. Building is an act of optimism. More producers producing makes me optimistic. If it is not about numbers, how do you feel?
2
Building is a bad sign. There was a lot of building during the Great Depression. This is still the 2nd Great Depression. We've been in a hole for almost a decade, and most of us have not crawled out.
It seems me this is the most generic response to to the "job growth" report today. There was no breakdown of wage gains. To suggest construction is doing well, that means an industry that is reliant on immigrant labor which is one of the forces driving our economy when a year from now lack of laborers, combined with a low growth economy as we move away from world trade, well I see Cohn and his buddy Trump basically arguing "excessive exuberance" as a roadblock to the tax cuts recently put forward and no real plan to offset them.
9
Only someone out-of-touch with the real working world would contend that the economy is awfully strong. I live in a very high-cost area of California and our streets are increasingly filled with RVs being used as a home for workers paid so little that they can't even afford part of a rent payment. And where are the good jobs for blue-collar folks other than flipping burgers or greeting customers at Walmart?
25
It's called gaslighting. Tens and tens of millions of Americans know that the only thing strong about this economy are the benefits it delivers to the exploiters and their upper-tier servants.
What's wrong with flipping burgers? What's wrong with greeting customers at Walmart?
1
I live in NJ, which is even worse than California. No RVs here for the homeless. They are living on the streets.
As a aircraft mechanic I find that the wages have actually fallen. With 40 years transport category experience primarily with major airlines and able to collect social security I see no reason to continue working. I'm better off working under the table and only part time. Anyway the airlines are all shipping their heavy maintenance overseas where the pesky FAA doesn't bother them.
14
My wages fell years ago and never recovered. This has happened to a lot of people I know. And health care costs, rents, property taxes are through the roof. Lower wages and much higher cost of living.
11
Labor wages are effectively stagnant and in real terms have gone down. CEOs, "wealth management", luxury goods (often with phony and/or inflated value), microtrading (removing value from the economy), and other exploitation and parasitical specialties are laughing all the way to their exploding assets, often squirreled away in tax havens.
Sure, kleptocrats are making out. Unions are being disbanded and the minimum wage is under attack. No benefits, no health care, rising internet costs and lowered freedoms. The "gig" economy, "disruption", it's all good for the looting classes, the rest of us can do without common protections.
Our insurance we paid for, Medicare and Social Security? They want to loot that too.
Criminalization of poverty, Jim Crow attacks on voting rights, "let them eat cake" and blame the victims. Selling arms abroad (Erik Prince), inflating fear to sell guns (NRA), lots of for-profit opportunities for the unscrupulous.
Even the evangelicals are on the for-profit train. "Success" doctries "trump" morality. We have to "forgive" the right, while punishing their victims and holding them to a higher standard (that would be any standard at all). Only fetuses deserve "life", the rest of their enemies are subject to "stand your ground".
Foreign wars are just fine, and the rise of ISIS has nothing to do with our making life unliveable as we ruin foreign neighborhoods.
Climate change, don't even start. The rich are different, they think they can build walls.
40
Obama said we can’t grow at 3-4% GDP... would you rather have slow growth and no wage movement like 2008-2016 or see progress like we finally are seeing?!?
Also don’t blame Obama slow growth on the recession because any knowledgeable individual would point to history and show that we grow FASTEST after a recession besides that one time Obama was president and used his fascists mindset to regulate the private sector! SAD!
1
wait, what about burning witches, isn't that coming back?
2008 Financial crisis Obama elected and staffed his administration with ‘economic wisdom.’ Larry Sumners heading the National Economic Council, and Christina D. Romer, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and the chairwoman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers the issue becomes clear. Romer saw a need for $1.8 trillion stimulus package but faced opposition from Sumners and like minded Geithner and Orszag who favored transferring $700 billion to the banks to offset possible bank failures. Sumner is reported to have commented, "What have you been smoking?" when hearing her recommendations.
So a recovery that could have occurred perhaps in 4 took 8 but the Bankers
faired well. That is yet the story as the FED stands ready to put the brakes on. Wages stagnate but financial sector rules, Democratic or Republican; Trump had the rhetoric but who is fooled? Let the ‘recovery’ run and live with it!
8
In real life, even Paul Krugman already admitted that a stimulus larger than $800 billion would never have made it through Congress, as almost a third of Democratic Senators were Blue Dogs representing Red states.
Apart from the Dem Stimulus (= Recovery Act) however, Bush had ALREADY signed a 2x $400 billion bank bailout into law. Why did Democrats take that over? Because economists across the political spectrum at the time agreed that the only way to prevent a full-fledged breakdown of the entire banking sector and as a consequence the only way to prevent the -9% GDP Obama inherited from becoming a Great Depression (= GDP at -10% or lower) was to bail them out.
But what does a bailout mean? A bailout is a LOAN, loan that the banks have had to pay back, and pay back with interests. And thanks to Geithner they've been forced to pay back the entire loan in a couple of years already.
What's even more, Obama's idea had always been to pass a second stimulus a year after the first was passed. The first had to stop the downward spiral, and turn the economy around. The second would have accelerated the recovery, and increased wages.
By that time, however, Scott Brown had won Kennedy's Senate seat, which allowed the GOP to block the second stimulus - but fortunately NOT the creation of Warren's Consumer Protection Bureau, increasing bank regulation.
Conclusion: Dems and Republicans clearly stand for the OPPOSITE, when it comes to being enslaved to Wall Street or fighting back !!
10
There is evidence to the contrary.
Obama never made an effort to mount the enthusiasm he had mustered as ‘Not-Bush’ to pass any progressive policy he claimed as a candidate and turned to his health care – Republican modeled – program as his sole interest. Not going to the public theater was his demise as he lost his Democratically controlled congress. He deferred policy to Wall Street insiders but that was not new was it? And the economy dragged on with only the top benefiting; nothing new there either since the 1980’s. The Goodman Sachs crowd has found a happy home in both parties’ administrations.
There is evidence to the contrary.
Obama never made an effort to mount the enthusiasm he had mustered as ‘Not-Bush’ to pass any progressive policy he claimed as a candidate and turned to his health care – Republican modeled – program as his sole interest. Not going to the public theater was his demise as he lost his Democratically controlled congress. He deferred policy to Wall Street insiders but that was not new was it. And the economy dragged on with only the top benefiting; nothing new there either since the 1980’s.
Low foreign wages result in de facto tariffs on our exports. President Trump is remedying that.
8
Encouraging news. Non so much the picture.
Two men working at heigts with no fall protection at all, is non a sign of an economy that is growing and working safely.
10
Strong for who?
11
Um, the unemployed person who now has a new job. Who do you think?
Didn't Trump once say the Labor Bureau reports were fake news?
22
Labor participation rates are still 3% below where they were in 2008.
Wages have barely budged in 40 years.
And millions of American households can't absorb the cost of a dental inlay or a tow truck.
But, from the NYT building, the economy is "looking awfully strong".
39
The recovery was already progressing under Obama.
All Trump did was poor grease on the fire, in the form of slashing consumer and environmental protections left and right, resulting in healthy growth shifting to an unsustainable burn that crashed at the end of January with the Dow correction, and which still hasn't recovered, with wild swings in volatility.
The market is not strong; it's running on fumes, and it's just a matter of time before that becomes more obvious.
25
I wish the liberal arts major who is monitoring the message board would let my posts thru... you make no sense and need someone to explain why to ya!
You mean Trump “poured* grease on the fire” but I shouldn’t waste any more time cuz you contradict yourself by claiming Obama fixed it then you say it’s not fixed and point to a correction that literally recovered 5 hours earlier then your post!!! Haha pathetic! Or even better.... SAD!!!
The economy's improvement in Trump's first year has been much better than in any single year under the Obama administration. And unemployment of blacks and Hispanics is pretty much the lowest ever. Guess it's time to bash Trump for something else to distract from these accomplishments, or to claim that Obama is responsible for these gains.
22
Sure, I'm in! Obama is responsible for these gains. And what's more, we owe him unending gratitude and respect for being a dignified, ethical, thoughtful, informed, and deeply caring president and leader.
14
No. The GDP grew by 2.3% in 2017. That is better than in 2016 but lower than three of the six other years (and not counting 2009, when Obama was still digging us out of the recession). In other words, the rate in Trump's first year is consistent with the rates during the Obama recovery.
14
Under most conditions I would agree with your thinking because economic policies work with lags. But here we have different circumstances. Right after Trump was elected the NFIB (small business) survey jumped and it continued to rise like it was shot out of a cannon. Trump began threatening companies that were leaving the US before he took office. There was a huge anticipation that regulations would been peeled back and that all sorts of restrictions would be loosened. You had changes in surveys conducted late in the year before Trump actually takes office while Obama is still in the White House with no new initiatives. Hate Trump if you want. But he has had some smart policies. Hate his tweeting. Hate his arrogance. Hate his thin skin and big mouth...Hate his creepy friends... but DO give him credit for what he has done. He did rattle his saber and get Europe to pay its fair share in NATO. NO one before him had done that - they all got empty promises. He does have talks with N Korea scheduled after his hard line ( Reagan's hard line did the same thing to the USSR remember them? They are now pared down to Russia) and do not dismiss the idea that actually imposing tariffs might get countries to treat us more fairly on trade. Is it dangerous? Yes! It is worth the risk, too. We have had 35 years of nearly uninterrupted current account deficits how could it get worse?
When Obama had similar numbers, Trump said the numbers at the BLS were falsified.
And not a single Republican called him out for it.
I have yet to figure out how it is Trumps fools so many.
21
Can you provide a link to the job reports that Obama had equivalent to this one?!?! Can’t wait to see it and he definitely should have one you can provide the shoild be MUCH better since he took over during a recession!
Just look at our country’s history after a recession and it’s incredible how much we normally grow afterwards! Can’t wait for Valerie to provide me with Obama growth after the worst recession since the 1930s...
Obama’s recovery should make Reagan’s economic growth look minimal since Obama took over a much larger economy... PLEASE PROVIDE ME THE DATA!!!!
Quite simple: they are fools.
1
To an ivory tower economist, sitting high on a perch, the economy may look "awfully strong," but to millions of middle class Americans, struggling to make ends meet on stagnant wages, it just looks awful.
55
Yes. Keep reminding people that there are lot of jobs but not many good ones. Romney's 47% comment was misunderstood by everyone ( even him!). A sad day when so many working Americans earn such little income they can't afford to pay any income tax-- who to blame? BOTH PARTIES BOTH OF THEM don't let them point fingers!!!
The Obama Recovery. Sure! Everyone in America credits Obama for all the great things going on in America right now. Says....no one...ever
25
Actually, thinking people do say that.
Thanks, President Obama. Once more, a Democrat had to clean up Republicans’ colossal messes, and we are about to go down that same path again.
20
Trump is just getting started reconstructing the old world order. Break a few more norms and we are back into the days of workers with no rights and a world market based on exploitation. It will be colonialism redux. Corporations, enabled by State militaries and ultra wealthy will steal resources and abuse cheap labor. this time it won't be the east against the west but neighbor against neighbor.
32
Didn’t republican teddy roosevelt end the old world order you’re talking about like almost 100 years ago?!? Hahaha come on but Teddy fixed that and national parks before my family ever moved to America hahaha!!! Now please advise what’s wrong with protecting American manufacturing especially when it comes to steel vs buying from an adversary like China!!
Except that it's for February! Its the shortest month of the year with many holidays and the largest working day adjustment of all. If you want to take February data as gospel,well, that's your business. But it's not a good idea.
9
Wouldn’t the shortest month mean we hired a lot of people during the narrowest period of time that we measure these stats? Or are you saying that Job Reports are manipulated before they report the data and it isn’t actually based off of the job data for February? Please advise... thanks =) #MAGA
7
Since you do not seem to understand the process involved let me spell it out. You have very few actual Biz days in February. So to seasonally and calendar adjust everything you divide the month's level of jobs by a factor (less than one) that will boost the total. The you calculate the month to month difference to get job growth for the month, Here it is 313,000. Since there are so few working days this seasonal factor is LARGE. You see I am referring to the seasonally adjusted number, as everyone does. The problem with this sort of thing is that the seasonal factor does not 'know' what happened in the month that was a one-off event and what was seasonal so it magnifies everything. Any distortion in February is magnified by being blown up by this seasonal factor. That fact makes February a less reliable month. January and December are big months for Christmas hiring and lay offs. But February is not home free because of the weather variability and the shortness of the month in terms of working days. This is not 'manipulation' per se. The data are adjusted by an ex ante method that has been applied for years. It is not a cooked statistic just a month whose numbers are vulnerable to this process that tries to put one month on an equal footing with all other months even though they are inherently different. Not cooked. Not manipulated for some political end, but not free of 'distortion either. OK?
The main reason that the economy is surging is due to changing expectations. Obama was a downer, stating that the American dream was over and that we would just have to get used to mediocre growth. Of course, his over regulation had a very negative effect as well.
Enter Trump as President and the expectations changed 180 degrees. Trump is a businessman and understands how the real world works. Obama was a community organizer and never held a real job his entire life before becoming President.
The simple truth is that Trump has demolished the Democrat's economic policies for a generation. We now see the difference in results and know who gets the credit and who gets the blame.
21
Or as Donald Trump told Wolf Blitzer in 2004: “I’ve been around for a long time and it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans.”
16
Did you forget about his 4 bankruptcies in Atlantic City and I believe he had 2 other bankruptcies. He's the "king of debt".
2
Trump's experience as a businessman consisted of multiple bankruptcies and a reputation so bad that he had to get money from the Russians.
Obama never anything like what you attributed to him.
Thanks Obama. No, seriously, thanks Obama.
42
Because the blue coastal cities, the health industry, and the tech industry are still doing well while the rest of the country are struggling to recover still?
1
For those who have significant amounts of money in the stock market I have three sincere wishes: that you have at least 10 - and preferably 20 - years until you need that stock market money; and that you continue to SAVE determinedly; and you do not indulge in too much debt or what the masters of the universe in the financial institutions love to call, euphemistically, leverage. Do not let the daily Starbucks and the exotic vacations and an overpriced life seduce you. Old age does not come alone my friends.
style seduce you.
5
Anyone with a lot of money in the stock market is probably smart enough to make better decisions than what you’re telling them to do....
4
The Economy is looking Awfully Strong is your headline.
The key word there is Awfully.
There is no such thing as a free lunch, ie rifling the treasury of trillions of dollars and giving it to billionaires and billionaire dollar corporation on the backs of the average working stiff with massive deficits they will eventually cripple the economy and be paid back by the worker not the billionaire.
Learn from history or forever be condemned to repeat its worst mistakes.
18
Strong for whom? I'm still earning the equivalent of what I did in 1982, despite adding two graduate degrees and many years of solid work experience since then. If I'm lucky, I get a 2% raise each year, but no retirement benefits (as has been true for decades). At this rate I'll just work till I am too sick or feeble, and then I will perish either from poverty (particular thanks to immense medical debt) or by choice. The tiny number of people making a killing in today's market and from the tax cut that causes ruination for much of the country probably don't care enough to get two grey cells to rub together. Bitter? Yes. Thanks, GOP and Drmph.
37
May I know what Grad degrees you got and what job you do? You seem to suggest that graduate education is useless and does not get you there. I am a college grad and I had a 3.84 GPA and my pay tripled. So just curious.
4
I’m also from Chicago and if you are getting annual raises but feel that you haven’t advanced in earnings then maybe you spend too much money or live in too expensive of an area... someone with your complaints should be living in Aurora (or any cheap burb... tell me the area & I’ll give a good suburb!!) & using public transit to commute rather than renting or owning a place. Being miseducated about finance seems to be your biggest issue... I know a lotta people who would beg for 2% raises annually hahaha
4
People have the right to make a reasonable living in ANY sector they choose, not just those you may have been lucky enough to prosper off.
The President is a low class moron. The economic numbers are better. But, the economy was doing great under Clinton, Bush gave me a 600 tax check, deficits, increased healthcare cost, a war and a depression due to deregulation. So Trump like Bush the best is yet to cone.
13
Let's stop talking about how many jobs were created and start talking about whether or not they're paying a living wage. If that's not the case then the rest is null and void and a bunch of bull. And as usual, dummies keep falling for it.
20
Avg wage rate is $22/hour or something like that. Minimum wage is $8-11 or something depending on where you stay. So why is the average wage, which is not a very high skill wage, so much higher than the minimum wage?
4
Way to go Trump, MAGA!
14
It's on the same trajectory as it has been since 2009, don't get too excited or rather you need to credit Obama as well. Let's see how the rest of his one term work out.
8
Do you understand how federal regulations affect private business? If so, please advise why a heavily regulated Obama economy deserves the credit?!?! If you don’t understand regulations then let me know you want to understand why free market capitalism rejuvenated this bull market for the foreseeable future... if you don’t wanna be open minded then just assume the economy BOOMED from all the regulations that obama forced on business but please explain why those businesses didn’t boom until the Obama regulations were cut by Trump... please advise! I need to understand how strangling businesses with regulations helped grow our economy (that couldn’t grow for Obama hahahaha)
But I thought the tariff war was going to crash the economy. Now, it looks strong?
5
That is not how any of this works... the tariff was signed yesterday and won't take effect for another 2 weeks. This has NOTHING to do with tariffs yet.
8
The economy was running quite smoothly when Obama left the White House. Check back in a couple of years.
11
Actually, it was the WORST economic recovery from a recession in post war history. But, don't let facts get in the way of your hyper partisan views.
We are seeing GDP growth and economic numbers under trump that we did not see under Obama.
1
The economic expansion is only 14 months long and just beginning. Obama years were stagnant.
13
I would like to know how many of these are second jobs people have to take because they cannot afford to live on one job.
14
I certainly hope so !! But, then why are we starting a trade war ?? The Obama effect continues to take hold. Budget deficits that will need to be made up with inflated dollars can only benefit those who own real estate and are well invested in stocks. Jobs are up but so, soon, will be inflation. Yet, I do not have an answer better than--I hope it continues this way !!!
Has anyone looked at "Science and Technologies" sector? Mr. Trump & his administration appears to have very high desperation/need to convince general public that "Science-is-evil", F&UK Science and Scientist.
I would not be surprised, WHEN USA lead is replaced by non-USA. And I bet Mr. Trump and his supports blame all sorts of things but themselves. Sigh.
5
when wages go up then let us talk..
9
Then we'll start hearing about how inflation is killing us. Asset inflation = great economy, wage inflation = the end of the world. When wages start going up, another Paul Volcker will appear to put his boot on the throat of to economy to "tame" inflation.
Democrat Party propagandists are nothing if not subtle.
3
Things are not looking good for liberals.
11
Must be the time to sell everything and go to cash. Maybe even put the cash under the mattress.
2
Fuel for economic expansion is employment and stable government. If Trump would simply play golf and play tag with Hefner-type yard bunnies in Florida things would fire up hotter.
3
It's at least good to see the economy continues chugging along and the market responds in kind despite all the political theater Trump stages to divert our attention from all his failure, ineptitude and sleaziness.
5
Why do people still think that a strong and growing economy is beneficial to the vast majority of Americans? In 2016, 44% of Americans could not pay a $400 emergency medical bill without going into debt. Almost 25% of all adults are not able to pay all their monthly bills in full. 73 million Americans are finding it difficult to or are just getting by financially. The Times misses no opportunity to bash the Trump administration on any other aspect of its policymaking. But when it comes to economics, these macro-indicators pointing upwards seem sufficient to lull even the most liberal of newspapers into holding their tongue and chargrindingly admitting that the country is just flourishing. That's nonsense. The individual hardships of millions of Americans will continue to expand, persist and provide a fertile ground for authoritarian populists like Trump. Why is no one talking about these inequalities? President Obama identified as "the defining issue of our time" for a good reason. We should listen to him.
19
We haven't learned anything from the past economic meltdown. The bigger the economic gains, the bigger the crash. The strong economy of 2002-2008 anyone? Housing boom beyond belief, financial markets on a wild upward move, big banks doing as they please. Today, legislation to allow banks to again take unnecessary risks is being considered. Are our leaders mad? I believe so. Mad with greed. This next crash will make the 2008 crash look like a minor correction. No one to blame but ourselves for electing crooked fools as our leaders and following, like sheep, corporate Wall St off a cliff.
7
You ought to give a course in economics and finance. Couch it in notions of GOP ideology.
1
Looking strong? For some maybe; that some being the very few at the top. The very few that need it the least will benefit the most. Fair? Of course not. But when you have an alleged billionaire, on paper, manning the helm of the ship of state, and a compliant crony Congress more concerned with making those at the top very happy, what you have is an economy, after the "biggest" tax cut in history, according to the Blowhard-in-Chief, seeing Joe Six Pack, this Friday night, bellying up to the bar at his favorite watering hole, figuring out what to spend the "tremendous" increase in his paycheck on. At least, he says, it's "in his, not the government's, pocket". And he's calculated that leaves him enough to buy a couple more beers than before the tax cut. Might as well break out the good stuff, wot? If that doesn't call for a hearty rendition of "Happy Days Are Here Again", what does?
DD
Manhattan
7
The strength of the American Economy today is akin to the "strength" of a man high on amphetamines - the shot of amphetamines is the tax cuts.
When the effect of the drug inevitably dissipates, the reality of dilapidated institutions, weakened education, militaristic priorities, disastrous public health, and an entrenched oligarchy will kick in as the true determinants of the American future. Confusing being strong with being high is a very bad mistake.
7
How's income inequality doing? Uh huh...
11
Yet the president intends to freeze federal civilian pay into 2019. With rising costs in a growing economy, this is the fastest way to deplete the ranks of public servants. Only Congress can change course (under public pressure).
3
Doesn't feel like a strong economy when you've been out of work for more than a year, have applied to more than 200 jobs and only had two (2) actual interviews.
9
Thank you, President Obama, for hanging tough through outrageous slings and arrows from the GOP, the very same GOP that now wants all the credit for the mustard seeds you sowed.
6
Yes but those who work for their money are not doing nearly as well as those whose money works for them.
Yes but blacks lag behind their white peers in every socioeconomic educational demographic geographic cohort.
Yes but white lives still matter much more than black lives in America.
8
Gotta say, it's hilarious reading all the handwringing comments from NYT readers who simply can't bring themselves to credit Trump with anything. In fact, it seems pretty clear these poor souls would prefer a recession and massive unemployment in America if it allowed the Resistance to hang a loss on the president.
I haven't checked, but I doubt Obama ever had a single month with 313,000 new jobs created, but if he had, rest assured the NYT would be heralding the achievement for weeks, above the fold, and not as a secondary headline like they are doing here.
5
i am an objective and rational outsider and can not bring myself to credit trumplet with anything. The outside world view him and observe him as a clown, you know.
1
Bingo! Perfectly stated.
The usual misguided, skewed, blinkered, repugnant and dare I say "smug" economic reporting from Neill Irwin and his paymasters at the NYTs. For them, just as for Hillary and her undying supporters, "America is already great." I swear, it's a complete mystery to me how Trump could have possibly become President. Historical Pointer: You know what Marie Antoinette was heard to murmur as she was led in the tumbril on the way to the guillotine? "The Economy Is Looking Awfully Strong."
4
So if things are so darn great, what on earth are those rust-belt trump voters crying about? Why not just jump on the job train and grab a new one? Yeah, right.
9
So why do we so relentlessly go after minorities?
Because their skin is a darker shade of color and Fox News says that's bad.
3
Can we start by calling this the "Obama Recovery?"
10
Like ancient Rome, our economy is big diversified and infrastructure serves all, so it just works well all by itself, no President has any real control over it. It takes about seven years for recoveries from financial crashes, and that's what the numbers show, that the economy has recovered. Now will it expand enough to begin to overcome the disparities of wealth that are keeping most people from seeing a increase in their private wealth? That we cannot anticipate with any certainty.
3
Yes, don't count on it, given the way the US economy and finances are structured. What you can anticipate most likely is another 2008.
1
It is simply wrong that Wall Street celebrates both corporate profits and low wages. The cash economy is large and always grossly underestimated by economists. This report proves with a point 4.1 unemployment rate where did the unexpectedly large number of workers newly employed come from? The cash economy.
5
You mean lied about. The numbers are fudged.
1
for most (younger) middle class americans, inflation is one way to re set some of the inequalities in the system. For instance, college loans and mortgages (especially those at 3 % ) become much easier to pay back. oversimplified, the lendees gain and the lenders lose. So i like the let it run idea ( and I am older and soon to be on a fixed income).
2
Famous last words.
2
My daughter does not gave one college loan under 6.5%. She’ll barely be able to pay the minimum due each month even with a good paying job. So much for better wages.
I think one can assume that, as others have commented, the 'gig economy' is exerting downward pressures on wages. Another factor that Irwin mentions but doesn't relate to wage pressure is the low labor market participation rate.
As jobs are created beyond what's needed for population growth, workers who had dropped out of the labor force, are re-entering the job market, nibbling away at that 'excess' job creation and throwing a wet blanket on possible higher levels of wage growth.
5
The last month we had good a jobs report, the market lost its fudge over fears of interest rate hikes. What's different this time? Lackluster wage growth. Workers are working more for less.
11
The economy was strong in 2007, until it wasn't. Likewise, it was strong in 1929, until it wasn't. And many other examples in between. Put some money in safe places while you have it.
9
The whole point with crashes is they happen suddenly out of the blue. You cannot game them. Nobody predicted 1929, and nobody predicted 2008. Literally up until the last minute, ALL THE PUNDITS were saying things were fine.
4
It is great news, but it comes at a price in higher debt, worse inequality, and fewer with healthcare. It's arguable whether Trump has done more harm than good:
1. Job creation was slower in 2017 than 2016.
2. Only 15% of corporate tax cuts going to workers, rest mainly to rich shareholders; the rest of us get the debt too plus higher taxes down the road to pay for the corporate cuts which are permanent.
3. Inflation was higher in 2017 (2.1% vs. 1.3%)
4. Budget deficit was much higher in 2017 (+14%).
5. Trade deficit was much higher in 2017 (+13%)
6. Number uninsured was much higher (+3.2M or +11%).
7. ACA exchange costs +45% vs. 10% expected prior to Trump's arrival.
8. Wage growth was about 2.6% in 2016 and 2017.
So we're doing well, but could be doing so much better with policy that raised taxes on the rich to fund education and healthcare. Let's not forget the opportunity costs.
27
This seems to me a good summary of what I consider a "disconnect" between the calculations for statistics, data, etc and the "real lives" of so many!
3
Volatility is up. This reminds me of 2008, when all the experts said the market was going to continue to rise. The volatility (reflecting investors' rising nervousness) was a far better predictor than all the pundits and columnists.
That said, I know better than to try to time the market. I'm really good at guessing wrong in the short run!
11
I disagree. the "economy" may be strong for corporations, but not for Americans. I have two degrees, two "jobs," I'm a veteran, and have worked for 20 years, yet I can't even get a call back for a career track position that pays enough to cover rent on a trailer, and I'm no exception.
65
One data point can not support an economic theory.
1
Let's celebrate all those new jobs flipping burgers while we can before they're gone to burger flipping robots.
2
This is the start of the seasonal hire-ups. Mostly in service sector jobs. Retail, etc. And this year, still in its infancy, has seen a hiring "surge"...in these sectors. The lingering "high" from the tax cut has been positive in that it has alleviated a lot of stress in the working class, especially those reentering the workforce. Many have come out of retirement (mostly out of need) or hibernation, as many service employers have set higher hiring goals, with slightly higher wage offerings.
But the cost of goods and services is still rising. Oil prices are likely to rise as the weather warms. Basic expenses are rising, rents, food, clothing, health care and entertainment, etc...continue to rise.
We are spending more, boosting economic hopes, but consumers are getting less and less. In 3 months Ive seen prices at my standard grocery stores go up .25 to 1.00 on avg. for basics. (alum foil already up .50)
The small extra amounts people are now taking home (tax cuts) is already spent, on debt, etc. But people will react to seeing the bumps, and think they actually have more money and spend more then they truly have...
All these reports, especially these uber postive hype pieces, are propaganda straight from Wall St. Meant to get people to feel better so they spend more and more...
No where do we see data that savings are rising...because the savings as a healthy economic metric is dead, and/or abandoned. Its all about profligate consumption.
Spend and consume America!
8
Interesting, though, that you glaringly omit to mention that while we're nearing full employment, wages aren't rising nearly as much as the economic experts predicted. The new 'gig economy' is providing jobs, but not ones that are so well paying or with benefits -- and over time, this will likely have a dramatic impact, for the worst, on so many Americans, and the economy as a whiole.
16
After Bush wrecked the economy and caused the Great Recession of 2008, the economy had no where to go but up under Obama. However, if the economy is going up after Obama, Obama should get some credit for making good decision, although Republicans who controlled Congress could also get some of the credit.
4
Are you kidding? Current sad state of affairs of the Republican party is a result of their reaction to the actions Obama took to save the economy. They should get credit? What a laugh
I am not sure where our economy is looking "strong", perhaps on Wall Street and in multi-million dollar real estate transactions which employ no one. Wages have stagnated since 1980 thanks to Reaganomics.
A flea may look huge to someone looking through a microscope, but that ignores proportion and the real world.
14
I've lived in the same Working Class neighborhood for 12 years. Saw first hand the disruption of the Great Recession, friends who lost jobs and then their homes.
The recovery came slowly. But in general things got better during President Obama's tenure.
The most dramatic change has been to observe how different "work" is now for most neighbors.
Instead of one Full time job with decent benefits, many work two part time jobs. In one example, three part time jobs.
None with benefits.
So now I read that "Economists" are sweating "Inflation" if we, the Workers, may actually receive raises now that Wall Street is swimming in Billions of cash?
Phooey on them!
Most American Workers are still making "less" compared to 1990, adjusted for even the LOW inflation since then.
Crocodile tears from the mega wealthy disgusts me.
12
vandalfan: the big blue coastal cities are doing great as per usual -- and centers for the tech industry -- but they were never seriously harmed during the recession ANYHOW.
Nobody at the NYT has ever set foot in "icky flyover country" so they literally have NO IDEA ON EARTH how we are doing.
2
I thought Blockbuster went out of business years ago? And even still, I don't recall their jobs being all that well-paying. Why the hype?
3
Every single Blockbuster in my Rustbelt Midwest region went under several years back -- at least 7-8 years, maybe more -- most have been bulldozed or repurposed. Maybe they are still renting VHS tapes somewheres in the rest of the US?
1
We need more months like this.
1
“Nine years into an economic expansion”, for all of which Trump will claim credit.
11
The first several years were inevitable due to the crash of 2008. Every US economic downturn has been followed by above-average growth.
Even the harm caused by Dodd-Frank, higher taxes and the ACA was unable to prevent the economy from coming back to a limited extend during Obama's administration.
3
And why are Sanders and Stein now silent about the lack of wage growth? Where are they? I thought this was their hallmark issue?
12
If you can force the media to give them a weekly column or something, I'm sure they would take it.
I get emails from the Sanders camp every week talking about this stuff.
They literally talk about it every day. I went to a Sanders event just 2 weeks ago in East Lansing, MI where he talked about this. They're still doing it, the media just isn't interested right now.
Wage growth? What wage growth? American Workers are still making less than 1990, adjusted for (low) inflation.
Wall Street making hundreds of billions, while Main Street gets crumbs.
Phooey!
"Yes, it would be nice to see paychecks rise faster, but the saving grace of the fact that they aren’t is that it allows the Fed a little more room for patience, strengthening the arguments of the “let it run” faction inside the central bank."
Explain the above to people who live paycheck to paycheck. And to those whose paychecks are less than they were 30 - 40 years ago, unlike their expenses...
Just sayin'
13
You undermined the seriousness of your argument by concluding with "Just sayin'."
Time to grow up. Just sayin'
See, I can deal out the faux snark just like you.
In the private equity world, 24 months is the usual time it takes for the glow of prior performance to burn off, then it often results in a precipitous decline because replacement mangement was greedy or substandard. System memory fades as old hands are ditched and cheap new suits placehold. Here we have a ship with a captain and no crew, no map, no compass. It always looks good until it really really doesn't. The shoreline awaits. Enjoy the ride, the landing not so much.
11
I live in north Texas. We have been booming for many years. However, the only thing I see in terms of the economy are new tracks of land being converted into cookie-cutter cheap housing and roads that are build only to be repaired six months later. Does the economy basically equal construction? We are destroying our quality of life in favor of ephemeral, migratory jobs? Yuk.
49
It's simple. Limit the harmful impact of government on markets and economies. It's sad it took this long to figure that out.
9
Exploitation of natural resources is a quick and profitable fix for any economy...and that's what is being done..Ultimately it will destroy the environment but profit is what's important, right?
2
John Maynard Keynes used the the term "animal spirits" of the marketplace as huge factor in the health of an economy. Americans by and large have responded very positively to a tax cutting, deregulating business environment with exceptional confidence producing prosperity.
6
Doug...what responses are you referencing? The tax cuts are but 2 months old, the actual regulations that have actually been desposed of (most of what the WH has done is to stall start dates, not actual negation) have not really flowed thru the ranks and/or the economy.
The bonuses and micro wage bumps -doled out after the tax bill - have either been spent in the short term, or have not had a chance to accumulate in measurable increases in savings, or for future spending on big tix items. (Which cant be predicted, or relied upon.)
How avg Americans feel or respond, is all well and good, positive vibes help relieve stress, a good thing.
But its how Wall St responds, how big stockholders demand larger returns, that matters most. And they are deathly afraid of wage growth.
9
Thank you President Obama . . .
135
It's spelled T-R-U-M-P.
1
If you mean,"Thanks for no longer being in the way," lots of folks join in.....
1
Thank you, President Trump!! My business is picking up, finally.
2
Already nine years in expansion.
Give me a break. The Black unemployment under Obama was awful, under Trump it is the lowest since 1968. Rewriting history doesn't work with Times readers.
25
"Give me a break" is right if you think Trump invented this economy in months.
20
Kay Johnson: I can accept that it is Obama's economy the first few months into a new Administration -- but over a year? when it does STOP being an Obama recover? the last week of the last year of Trump's second term?
Yes. Nine years into expansion.
Times readers also know that numbers don't lie.
David Dennison aka John Miller does.
Just curious, did you get past the headline Times Reader, and are you a person of color? ...
2
Hm, I just got my monthly statement and the value of my retirement funds dropped >$6k in one month. No one seems interested to hire anyone over 55. Yep, the economy is AWESOME!
65
My former assistant, a woman with 37 years experience as a legal secretary, was just offered a job for $20,000 per year. Those are the quality of the new jobs.
2
It has nothing to do with attitude. I am glad your sister had offers, but your smug attitude is part of the problem.
Your funds statement includes the mid February market drop. Chill out, by the time you get your next statement you’ll see your 6K back plus some. Figuring your fund is 250K. My wife complained about the same thing and I explained that these monthly statements are not really up to date. Good luck.
1
What about crappy wages, and the explosive cost of housing, medicine and education? Only the rich benefit. What good is a job when it does not pay you enough to pay a mortage, tuition and a hospital bill? The economy is scam for the rich, against the rest of us.
117
Maybe too many folks spend beyond their ability to earn. You know, reach beyond beyond ability to grasp....
And your complaints about corporate welfare, Marcus?
Yeah. It’s just easier to pick on the guy who spends an extra ten bucks and shouldn’t have than the CEO at Wells Fargo who permitted fraud and demands that the defrauded pay for it.
Or maybe their ability to earn enough is tamped down by the greed of Wall Street and corporate America. The working class will never get what it deserves - a living wage that grows every year to keep up with inflation and makes life bearable. People don’t want to live paycheck to paycheck but housing, food, clothing, insurance etc. costs just keep rising. The incredible shrinking economy. Pay the same amount for less. It’s a keen little way for companies to increase prices without talking inflation. But it’s definitely there and it’s been happening for years.
Whatever is left, is primarily due to Obama, Bernanke and Yellen. The jury is still out for Trump et al. for several years.
Let's see what happens, when the "tax cuts" for the majority of us evaporate in a couple of years, and our taxes increase monumentally to pay for the huge, permanent tax cuts for big biz and the rich with a $1.5 trillion added to our already huge deficit.
And what about the millions of those who have just dropped out, and given up?
...And don't forget that 84% of this market's upsurge goes to the top 10%!!!
50
Please note that the article did indeed reference the participation rate has INCREASED, ergo that is why the % of unemployment has not dropped. More TDS.
Criteria for employment only camouflage everything that is wrong. Why not use criteria on wages to determine how well the economy is doing. That is the reality of the majority in the country. Monopolies are keeping wages down. Enforce the Sherman Leyton Act.
9
Never underestimate the ability of a Republican to destroy the economy. Three of the last three times they left the White House in recession. And those were leaders with at least half a clue. Donny won't disappoint the perfect record.
15
Thank God. It would be a pity to get absolutely nothing for a $1.5 Trillion dollar tax cut for the wealthy.
7
Everyone in my 54 person office got a raise due to the tax cuts. Even the Democrats are happy about a bigger paycheck-
Some good news! I'll take it and not try to kill it with a thousand economically oriented cuts and hair-splitting criticism. This may be as good as it gets, so enjoy. For this ain't Xanadu.
2
As if Goldilocks herself had written the report. . .
This along with "he doesn't really mean it" with the tariffs
Draghi saying "oh no there will be plenty of QE to go around all year" and Kuroda saying "exit? what exit? we are never leaving" and you have an electric prod that would even get Ferndinand from under the cork tree.
Don't worry about those productivity numbers, the Fed'sincreased purchases of CLO's from Fanny and Freddy, commercial real estate, the number of prospective workers who cannot pass a drug test, auto loan delinquencies, the record amount of unsecured consumer debt, the record amount of money out on margin. . . Blue Skys Forever -- go out and party like it is 2006 because it is --only with a whole lot more debt to service
3
Thank you, President Obama! I remember 2008.
27
So all those disgruntled voters in "coal country", "flyover country", etc should be sitting pretty, with solid jobs in a system that allows them health care, quality food, a reasonably nice place to live, reliable transportation, and maybe even a little extra to buy Timmy his first AK for Christmas.
They're probably abandoning their hatred for the "liberal elites" that outsourced their old jobs and welcoming brown people with open arms, because they're not "competing" for the same jobs any more, and the new jobs are even better.
They must be feeling solid in their health care and retirement plans and, happily, the opioid crisis should be on the wane, because people have a bright sense of optimism and security!
Right?
.... Right?
63
Look at what people are actually taking home in compensation. Talk to anyone who is looking for a job in the current market. Anything over like $12/hr is flooded with applicants, stacks of resumes and cover letters for basic jobs. This can't continue forever.
7
But for jobs that require actual skills, the number of applicants drops off quickly. Lots of low skill high school graduates looking to get paid as if they had a college degree and an advanced degree.
5
You're right about that, Tony. Back when I was still working, in 2010-14, my department had a number of open positions in Business Objects/SAP/Unix development, and we were willing to pay $80-110K for experienced candidates. We couldn't get anybody to even apply.
The Fed and Central banks worldwide need to raise rates a full % point by year end. 4x would do that at .25 increments. Otherwise, the monetary inflation will only continue to fuel inflation of financial assets. Overpriced stocks and coastal real estate is not going to truly help those out of the workforce or in low wage work. Better to spend in training and infrastructure rebuilding. The tax cut never should have happened.
10
Everything looks great, except the many who cannot even make it paycheck to paycheck. But, those at the top are doing very well, so I guess that makes it great!
38
All the rich folks I know are buying new cars.....taking Caribbean cruises....remodeling and adding onto their McMansions.
So there's that.
1
I'm amazed by how partisans view economic reports.
As soon as Trump was elected, the partisans did a complete 180 as to how they thought the economy was doing.
If you a Democrat, now all reported economic gains are suspect and illusory (often based on a person's tiny anecdotal sample size).
If you are a Republican, Trump has immediately caused an economic boom (despite the fact the only material economic policy enacted were tax cuts implemented a couple of months ago).
7
Not true-the de-regulatory environment that Trump has enacted is just as significant as the tax cuts. As Keynes said the "animal spirits" of the market as as important as anything else and Trump has created a positive environment.
10
“Animal Spirits” hogwash.
Translated, “Abuse the Workers of America”.
This doesn't ring true. Wages are stagnant. I see business closeups across America. Employment seems only available for 30 and 40 somethings. There is still vast evidence of the flight of American companies moving their manufacturing to Vietnam, Philoppines, Malaysia, India, Mexico, Brazil, China, and for others, moving their manufacturing out of China to these other more friendly and less controlling countries. Many large retailers are downsizing. What's wrong with my vision that I'm not seeing what the article portends?
79
Yeah, what's wrong my vision (post Lasik, it is 20/15!). I have not had a raise in 5 years. I have no employer-paid health insurance. My lousy worthless Obamacare policy went up from a $6900 deductible to a $7900 deductible in 13 months, so as per usual, I cannot access ANY health care whatsoever.
My husband was laid off in 2016, from a job he had held for 15 years and had to take another not-as-good job because he cannot afford to retire yet -- he's too young for Medicare still -- with a big pay cut. He already lost his pension in other past layoffs, so that was not affected this time. Still -- I'd like to see any of the smug lefties here face being unemployed at 62 and see how easy it is to get a good, professional job at that age!!!!
3
Perhaps you're looking in the wrong places.
3
Dear Concerned Citizen, I am very sympathetic to your plight and the plight of your husband. However, "lefties" also get laid off, have illnesses and personal struggles, suffer financial setbacks, etc. It's not about left or right - it is about the vast majority of us struggling to get by. And if you think there's no poverty in cities, or no one works two and three jobs, I have a bridge to sell you.
Consumer confidence is at an 18-year high.
The stock market is at an all-time hight
Tens of thousands of employees have received bonuses
Dozens of major employers have raised their own minimum wage
Steel mills are being reopened, companies are making major investments in the US, and companies are hiring.
Over 300,000 new jobs in February.
"This is not the kind of data you would expect in an expansion that is 9 years old . . ." That's because there was no expansion during the Obama years. These results are the result of Trump being elected and the Republicans passing tax reform. Does anyone really think any of this would be happening if Hilary had been elected?
19
If she were elected your understanding of macro economics (and your leader's for that matter) would be no better than it is today.
25
If Hillary were elected President, the Senate would refuse to hear her nomination for the Supreme Court. Trump’s issues with Russia would be overshadowed by constant Republican obstruction in Congress.
Apart from reopening Benghazi investigations and more of her email scandals, would a President Hillary Clinton be allowed to implement her agenda with a Republican controlled Congress.
Trump has a Republican controlled Congress and apart for tax cuts for the mega rich, what has he really achieved, apart from slogans, spectacle, deflections, for average Americans?
7
Well, I don't know that but if HIllary HAD been elected....we'd be forced to use unisex bathrooms (*to protect the precious little feelings of transgender people) and we'd be spending $10 trillion to remodel every public restroom in America.
So that's $10 trillion saved right there!
2
The economy has been humming along nicely for six years at least. The thanks should go to Obama, Geithner, Bernanke and Yellen who played it brilliantly despite the endless nay saying by the right. As to whether the economy is overheating. Not yet certainly but keep your eye on the key indicators. Credit card debt is back at a record. If the Fed raises rates three times this year as predicted it's going to put the pressure on household finances.
32
Growth at what cost though? Making sense of these numbers requires analysis of the bigger credit picture. An unprecedented amount of freely flowing credit has given companies and investors plenty of spending power, which eventually translates into hiring. Borrowed money must eventually be paid back though and the current earnings growth rate of the biggest companies in this country may be sending a contradictory message about the health of the economy. The GDP and job growth rates aren't jiving. This may be a worthwhile topic to explore.
2
Thank you President Trump!
23
The recovery is 9 years in the making. Thanks presidents Obama and Trump if you must. And remember the big problem, once jobs started coming back from the recession, has not been unemployment but low wage growth.
68
Nonsense- we aren't really into a Trump budget year yet at all, it's still the Obama economy. But Trump is doing everything he can to tank it, from blowing up the deficit with his tax cut for the rich to his protectionist, 19th century commodity tariffs. We will eventually get a Trump economy alright- and it won't be pretty.
45
@Craig,
Under Obama there were record numbers of people not partipating in the labor force, I will give him credit for that achievement. Under Trump that number has decreased significantly. Thank you.
Sorry, none of this report rings true. I live in Dallas, the city with supposedly the most job openings in the nation. If you are under 30 and have no experience, there are no jobs; if you are over 55 there are no jobs. I can't imagine how hollow this report sounds in cities with less "growth".
128
Thank you. I always see people over 40-50 complaining about a lack of good jobs, but it's the same if not worse for the younger cohort as well!
13
Economy is looking awfully strong. It has transitioned from a recession during the final years of the Bush years to a tepid recovery in the the final years of Obama to an awfully strong economy with a blockbuster job growth during the early years of the Trump's 8 years in office. Certainly a great upshot.
12
Er...we're in the 90th month of continuous job creation...LOL
28
Congrats on the recent Aluminum tariff shot of adrenaline to your Manufacturer. Those are good.
I only hope our country figures out a way to become more moderate in just about everything it does. We could use infrastructure spending. Wait till you (cities) get old and need help.
1
several years during the Obama administration had greater geowrh than this first year of Trump, if you want to pay attention to facts.
12
Wages are still essentially flat. America's growth since 2008 is essentially vegetative.
67
I'd say since Reagan destroyed the unions in 1980.
1
The economy was doing fine prior to the tax cut. I suspect the tax cut will cause inflation. That tax plan should have been saved for a rainy day.
106
If I was a business, and I just got a massive tax cut, I'd buyback shares and invest where I need to. We're seeing that now. The economy got a sugar high off the tax cuts.
12
Sorry, completely disagree about 9 years of expansion. It's been wallowing around up until a couple of years ago. Near zero interest rates is not sound economic policy.
6
and yet .. the number of jobs added, month over month, for the past 9 years, has been pretty much consistent. Use any method you choose to average the numbers out for normal, statistically irrelevant fluctuations. Factually, there is not much terribly different in 2018 from 2012. Except for those with an agenda.
49
People are coming off the bench (about 150k) rejoining the labor force. Proving that more people want to work if jobs are available.
11
That... or people are literally starving and freezing, therefore desperate to work for lower wages.
25
Or they need a second job to survive.
I think we need to reassess the way we measure our economy. Does GDP translate into a decent quality of life for all Americans? If so, why is the lifespan for working-class white men and women? Why are so many young people unable to find jobs with salaries sufficient to pay off their college loans?
If everyone is employed, why are so many people looking for work? They go counted in this cheery report because their employment compensation has expired.
87
I would like to see a jobs report with the median salary per sector included. If most of these jobs are in the service industry with low wages, there isn't really 'job growth'.
10
I guess it's like global warming. When that was discredited, they started calling it climate change. If you don't like the results, just change the definitions or metrics until you get the results you want.
2
What these numbers mean is that the economy is not "at full employment." The "unemployment rate" is easily manipulated. What do you think the official unemployment rate is in Mexico? The official rate is 3.8% versus the US official unemployment rate of 4.1%. So why are we worried about Mexicans taking US jobs?
Unemployment rates must be considered along side "labor participation rates," the percentage of people between 16 and 64 who are working or seeking employment. What is the labor participation rate in the US? It's been between 62% and 63% for years. It is around 59% in Mexico. In Canada it is between 65 and 66% and unemployment is around 6%.
This means that when wages increase or labor demand increases there are plenty of people who can work. The US economy needs to generate at least 150,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth. So the number of people not working increases if there is less than 150,000 jobs generated each month. So 150,000 jobs per month is the baseline, not 0!
Yes the economy is adding more jobs than 150,000, but there are plenty of people out there who have been unemployed for years. We shouldn't see inflation start jumping up with declines in unemployment rates. When the price of oil jumps, then start worrying about inflation!
12
Please note: my computer (;-) created some errors in the submission I sent you a few minutes ago. Please read:
I think we need to reassess the way we measure our economy. Does GDP translate into a decent quality of life for all Americans? If so, why is the lifespan for working-class white men and women shrinking? Why are so many young people unable to find jobs with salaries sufficient to pay off their college loans? If everyone is employed, why are so many people looking for work? They go uncounted in this cheery report because their employment compensation has expired.
5
Many, have expressed bewilderment as to why labor force participation has not recovered as it had in prior recessions. I would suggest that for some the answers can be found in the spam folder of their email accounts.
The spam folder in my email account contains numerous emails from attorneys promising that they can get me disability payments. If the labor force participation rate, especially for prime working-age males ages 25-54, had followed its typical cyclical pattern, the unemployment rate would now be well above 5.0%. The headline U-3 unemployment only counts those actively seeking work as in the labor force and unemployed.
As was pointed out in "Disability's Disabling Impact On The Labor Market" http://seekingalpha.com/article/3342635 historically labor force participation has behaved cyclically in the midst of a slightly declining trend. Dubious and fraudulent disability claims have vastly increased the number of those collecting disability with commensurate decreases in labor force participation and the unemployment rate. A segment on CBS "60 Minutes" quoted employees of the Social Security Administration and administrative law judges who asserted that lawyers are recruiting millions of people to make fraudulent disability claims. One such judge said "if the American public knew what was going on in our system half would be outraged and the other half would apply for benefits.".."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4008403
3
Only 40% of disability applications are approved. It takes as long as two years to even start getting benefits.
According to The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:
1. people on disability are three to six times more likely to die than people in their age group who are not on disability. (Doesn't sound like fraud to me.)
2. The potential disability population is also larger now than in the past because today’s older women are more likely to have worked enough to qualify for disability than in earlier generations. In any event, demographic pressures have already begun to subside. Adjusted for demographic factors, the share of workers on disability has gone from slightly below 4 percent in 2000 to slightly above 4 percent in 2014.
Are there some "cheats"? No doubt. But let's compare the overall dollars of a small percent of disability cheats to the BILLIONS of dollars gifted to the 1%. Target your anger where it more appropriately belongs: look up.
Conservative commentator Neil Irwin writes, "Nine years into an economic expansion, jobs reports don’t get much better than this."
Yes, and who was responsible for creating that expansion? President Obama, whose policies staved off complete financial and economic collapse back in 2009, and set the stage for the longest stretch of job creation in American history.
But Irwin refuses to credit the president who is to be commended. And that is very sad.
185
I believe the article was pretty devoid of politics and mention of any President?
We need to stop the blame/credit game and honestly look at the state of the economy so policy decisions can be made as accurately as possible.
18
A wise person named Joe Biden once said, “It’s amazing what you can accomplish if you don’t worry about who gets the credit.” Just sayin’.
17
"Yes, and who was responsible for creating that expansion? President Obama..."
Sean,
Pres. Obama came into office close enough to the nadir of the crisis ( and the stock crash) that he is mistakenly credited for what is really the natural tendency of depressed economies (and stock markets) to regenerate themselves. At some point inventories run too low and need to be replenished, as one example.
This natural tendency to bounce back would have happened under any president. Same for rescuing major corporations. Any president would have done what he did.
But Trump is doing things that no Democratic president would do - such as lowering taxes and cutting duplicative and stifling anti-jobs regulations. He's also compelling allies and trading partners to get serious about their financial obligations to defend themselves and take a close look at their mercantilist trade policies. That's the difference.
17
How can the Times run any article on employment at this point that makes no reference to the coming wave of robotics and machine intelligence? The only questions there seem to be, how much and how soon?
5
Warren Buffett said, "Through the tax code, there has been class warfare waged, and my class has won, it's been a rout"
Rich people have much higher marginal propensities to save and invest than non-rich people who have higher marginal propensities to consume.
The quandary for investors can be described as someone who has seen the first and last page of a book, but does not know either how long the book is or what happened between the first and last pages. We know that a massive transfer to the rich will happen. We know that the middle class has a much higher marginal propensity to consume than the rich. We know that initially the rich, or if you rather the job creators, use their additional after-tax income to invest. This extra investment initially boosts securities prices. The higher prices for securities enable investments to occur that might have otherwise been undertaken. These can range from factories, shopping centers and housing. What we don't know is the path that equity prices and interest rates will take between the enactment of the tax shift and the eventual financial crisis or other event occurs, at which time the massive excess supply of loanable funds as compared to demand for loans will push risk-free short-term interest rates down to near the lower bound, as was the case during the 1930s, in Japan for decades and in America since 2008..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4148256
10
All this growth, and still no increase in real wages, which actually declined in January. Will be interesting to see if that picks up.
95
Stormy Daniels is about to see an increase in wages.
4
Did you even read the article? Average hourly earnings are up at a 3.2% annual rate since October. Inflation is up less than 1% in that time. This translates into a more than 2% increase in real wages.
2
Yes because our president is vile and disgusting. I hope she shows no mercy on him. People deserve to know the truth about this man.