I do not vote for generic anything- I vote for candidates that share my values and priorities.
If the "Democrat" is a clone of Hillary Clinton- no thanks. Not voting for a Democrat In Name Only.
Election strategy for Democrats is very simple:
"When Democrats vote, Democrats win.
When Democrats don't vote, Donald Trump wins."
(forget the issues, work on turnout; assume Trump is the Democrats greatest asset)
1
It is vital for the future of democracy in America that the Democrats take control of the House in November. I am a Republican but it is clear that my party is running the country for the benefit of a powerful wealthy few & is doing its best to frustrate genuine democracy.
1
Is the Republican Party is still the best fit for you? My father, a lifelong Republican, left the party after W waged the Iraq war with borrowed money under false pretenses. He hasn't looked back.
It pales in comparison to what's being done today.
I am about fed up with the slicing and dicing of voter demographics in whatever way some analyst thinks can be taken advantage of in an election campaign.
How about our candidates come up with reasonable solutions and fair compromises that work for everyone?
Why do they think it is a good idea to "target" a certain cohort with a special set if campaign promises... and then change the message for the next group? It just makes them appear shifty and untrustworthy and not committed or focused.
2
NYTimes and readers, I am against 'gerrymandering' for any reason. Any. But you seem to be okay if it benefits democrats. I'd like to know why.
1
A path to a majority? The popular vote totals in the past three presidential elections would seem to show that the Democrats are already the majority. And, as their cynical schemes for voter suppression and ludicrous gerrymandering demonstrate, no one knows this better than the Republican party.
It’s not comforting to know that ignorance is Republicans big advantage. Not when most of the red states have shown a stanch resistance to anything enlightening. When interviewing Trump voters one realizes they haven’t a clue of what he’s up to. But it is still unimaginable what they see in such a obvious vile character.
2
All one needs to do to document and expose the crimes and failures of the Trump administration is to review and provide video evidence of exactly what crimes, lies and impending failures that would have resulted had Trump not been elected by interventions of foreign governments well versed in manipulation of the minds of white men and women. We all wish Trump could turn back time and make good on any promise he made but he can't. Just like that wall in Mexico, no one is paying for any job opportunities for workers through infrastructure development but we the non 1%. Either way, Trump says he doesn't care. No sign that anyone in the GOP cares. I really should have voted straight Democrat. Way it's going know looks like my younger sister and my grandparents will be aborted - that's just not what it we be called. Really never thought I would become a Democrat, ever. But I am most definitely now a never Republican.
2
Perhaps not, as THE ECONOMY counts!
A brand new outrageous lie from a Trump who promised not to cut Medicare and has proposed a budget which does exactly that. Is this a lie Americans who voted for Trump and depend on Medicare will swallow? By the way this is not identity politics unless aging or having elderly parents is an “identity.”
6
With some of the rightists who are out & out racists like the one running against Paul in Minnesota they deserve reprobation and defeat. And perhaps then some of the harm done by Trump can be eroded. I can imagine a company surviving with a 34% turnover rate. Pathetic leadership.
3
Wisconsin, not Minnesota.
All voting must be by paper ballot. Russians have already proven they can manipulate electronic voting machines.
10
But the conclusion during Obama's last month and beyond was that attempts were made into 20 states, only 2 were successful, and both of those were proven to have opened some to having their personal information stolen, but no manipulation into votes or outcomes were ever confirmed.
1
It was demonstrated quite easily at the hacker convention in Las Vegas last year. The most widely used voting machines hacked - and fast, too.
There's no closing the barn door once the livestock is escaped, we need better voting processes now.
one can only hope...democracy was never to be controlled by the president and yet he has total control over this country.... spitting on our constitution and defying anyone who tries to do the right thing because he can get away with it... the one flaw in our form of government is that decency would always prevail... trump proved that is not the case and there is no clear path to stop his scorched earth policies
3
Please do not believe that victory is inevitable as this article assumes. Republicans are bouncing back very well, their voters make the distinction between Trump and their home town elected, and they will have both "Tax Reform" and "Immigration Reform" in their back pockets as achievements.
I predict a sizable but not winning number for Democrats, even if they show up at the voting booths, which they are famous for not ever doing. Numbers folks - you are going to have to outnumber the opposition to get close to a majority in Congress, period. Do not fool youself.
5
I don't think the article assumes anything. It seems to be stating the current state of play, which isn't to be confused with the final outcome. This far out it seems (in my opinion) unwise to make any type of prediction on the final outcome outside of the traditional ones that have often held. Like the president's party tends to lose seats in mid-terms. What matters most for Democrats is enthusiasm. Millennials, women (of all backgrounds) and possibly various people of color communities being activated and following through is probably what will make the biggest difference for Democrats. I say run on local concerns that affect the constituency broadly speaking, that seems to be what worked in VA and AL, at least.
Well, it sure doesn't help the GOP advantage when Speaker of the House Paul Ryan celebrates the $1.50 per week increase 1 woman is getting as proof of the tax cut effect. Especially when this same woman will end up paying over $1.50 per day in tolls just to drive on public roads thanks to the GOP infrastructure plan.
8
Washington is a true-blue state. Both senators are Democrats, as is my congressional representative, and will likely to remain so. I am disappointed that I can't vote against a Republican. But, I will contribute to Democrats in other states in the hope that the Republicans will be ousted and Trump made redundant. Then, I will finally sleep soundly again without fear of his tiny hand pressing his nuclear button.
3
Estimating the chances of a Democratic Congressional resurgence is as problematic as that of the 2016 presidential election.
Republican success at restricting Democratic voting has been, and remains, successful. In my home state, the declaration of illegal gerrymandering has not resulted in redrawing the map. The Republican held legislature has obstructed the process, and may end up with the courts redrawing the lines.
A larger question is what do the Democrats stand for? The Republicans use fear of immigration, “transfer” of wealth, undeserving welfare recipients, and above all the military. Support the troops means throwing money at the arms industry as, since 2001, we are in endless war. Upsetting John Q Adams, we are forever seeking out “monsters” justifying our war expenditures and military interventions.
The Democrats used to stand up for unions, social programs, and civil rights. Membership in unions has plummeted; the label “liberal” has seen Democrats taper back social institutions; civil rights national appeal falters in Republican controlled states.
I am a Democrat, but the party I knew in the 50’s and 60’s is not the party of today. Those who benefitted from earlier Democratic actions have turned their backs. Youthful enthusiasm wanes in the mundane day to day political action. The Republican leadership does not fear populace outrage; they just wait for the news cycle to change and resume normal operations.
8
People keep asking what Democrats stand for? I think it would be better phrased "what is the campaign message" - what will resonate across various voters in a few words that actually capture what Democrats generally stand for in platform (sadly when it comes to voting sticking with principles and not voting with big money and corporations - a problem both parties have - Dems a little less so...)
How about Health Care as a Right, Living Wage, "Investing for Future Americans" - hey I like that one - education for all, starting at a young age, supporting working parents so they can improve their lives & all kids have a better start, the environment & natural resources for the future not for profit of the few, "DACA with Security" - it's silly we can't have both. I see a long list of what Dems stand for - What we aren't - just look at the Trump Administration - trickle down Ryan economics? tax breaks for corps and wealthy, drill baby drill....., to hell with National Parks, Black Lives Mat.... they don't care, etc - go 2018/20!
Gerrymandering is nothing. Soliciting enormous bribes from the Koch brothers is nothing. Lying to voters five times every day is nothing. Perverting the rules of Congress is nothing. Obstructing justice is nothing.
All these amount to nothing if you have already sold all the keys and all the passwords to Putin.
Which the Republicans have.
16
Whatever. I will not vote for Republicans. GOP is a party of anti-science, anti-minority, anti-decency and anti-honesty. Climate change, environmental protection, public land, gun regulation, crony capitalism, birth control, net neutrality, ..... are all important issues to me. No matter how much I dislike liberals, I will vote along party line.
7
Please stop wasting valuable 'real estate' with these predicitions. The Upshot had Hillary winning by a comfortable margin, remember. It would be great if this space were dedicated to actual investigative reporting. This series really needs to go...
12
Totally agree... The endless predictions about the election were utterly and completely off, no prediction can accurately take into account what people say they are going to do, and what they actually do - whether it's voting for a certain candidate in 2016 or showing up at the ballot box in 2018.
The Democrats need to step up, and stop being such wimps.
When the Republicans support a pathological liar, and men who have abused women, and a President we know has abused women, the Democrats need to scream.
You are not talking loudly enough.
8
If the only vile behavior was his treatment of women. Selling America out to Putin and the oligarchs, appointing haters of America to our most beloved institutions, denigrating our most trusted law enforcement and intelligence agencies, propagating false conspiracy series against anyone who would oppose him, promoting violence vile and despicable racist behavior. Shall I go on..
3
Dust off your Tip O'Neil playbook, Democrats. All political races are local. Climb on board with candidates who bear no resemblance to the women and men of a House district who is opposed by a Bible-thumper who daily parrots Fox News talking points and get those bloody mary's ready for the ritual of defeat. A strategy built on Ali's "rope-a-dope" where you exploit an opponent's weakness and strike hard and strike hard again at the appropriate moment is far better than waiting for the DNC to decide whether you fit into their unrealistic formula for choosing preferred candidates to fund.
Boldness, candor and well thought-out risks are far better than playing a political game where the rules are either determined by reaction to the GOP or out-of-touch strategists inside the Beltway.
Stop being so reluctant to call the president a liar. The shoe fits. Remember when Newt Gingrich advised Republican candidates and incumbent office holders the always call Democrats "traitors,"? The scorched earth tactic works for Democrats if the candidate has the grit to fight.
America's future is being determined right now. No time for playing nice, time isn't on our country's side.
Trump is a Democratic candidate's dream come true. A buffoon, a misogynist, a bomb throwing racist who has prima facie frightening relationships with a Russian thug. To paraphrase the great Gonzo, Hunter S. Thompson, this is going to be political hand-to-hand combat. Run candidates who are aggressive and unafraid.
9
You need to run for office.
1
Nate Cohn will and does write anything. Apparently it does not matter if he puts out totally contradictory opinions one day after the next. Complete with statistics he pulls out from whomever suits his purpose of the moment. I find his vacuity irritating in the extreme.
If you are going to offer an opinion or argument stick to it or explain your having changed lanes.
4
I have no doubt that the Democrats will do what they have been doing for the past 16 years, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If you don't get off your behind and vote you deserve what you get. Despair is the only word I can think of. Hipocracy runs so deep in the Republican party that it is part of their DNA
4
The Democrats had better figure out a clear message that isn’t just about dumping on Trump, and start grooming some capable YOUNG potential candidates and remember that it is still “the economy stupid”.
6
"Eroding" provided the GOP doesn't make a phone call to their special friend Vladimir for a little "assistance".
3
Republicans have become the Grand Oligarch Party. Their leader is Vladimir Putin.
1
Slim and none are the Democrats chances of winning a majority in the house--but if it makes the delusional happy, why not?
4
No hope as long as gerrymandering and the electoral college exist.
2
Thank God! Let's hope this continues. Only way I can see out of this mess!
1
What Liberals don't understand is that the GOP is NEVER going to peacefully and/or lawfully, say ok you guys win. We have to change our ways.
That's what Dems do.
With the GOP there are no lines that can't be crossed to the road for power for power's sake alone.
4
His budget cuts $554 billion in Medicare spending over 10 years. Social Security will be next. Vote out the GOP.
3
How sweet would it be if you were sitting in Washington knowing all the time that knowledge and information you got there could be sold or traded for money and position, especially with a golf course manager as president who works for tips and favors?
Could it be that the Tax Break For Realtors benefits Chuck Grassley to the extent he'll allow for this president? Orrin Hatch will fluff his golden parachute in our National Monuments, exits, while you should read the park ranger Edward Abbey's Desert Solitaire all about the beauty of Bears Ears and Escalante.
The turncoat Fox Tea Party voted in a real estate mogul who works delivering favors and expects loyalty is not interested in due process, quite the opposite. Freedom is a caucus that believes in streamlining. This means you and yours are subject to the knife. Streamlining means favors, cronyism and corruption made legal.
Tea Party warriors are dragging the United States into more wars. Where does Trey Gowdy go after he steps away from the pie fight? An ex-prosecutor, does he go back to law? (doubt it) military arms specialist as a consultant? Heritage Foundation?
These republicans stockpile advantage through stacking the deck, sandbagging legislation and using vital governmental information to further their careers and investments.
They carry your clubs for awhile only to tee off in front of you later.
2
All Republicans have to do is to tie Nancy Pelosi to every Congressional race. The woman has become an albatross around the Democrats neck. That and hammer home the Republican tax cut to working class people something Democrats voted against. This is like reliving the 2016 race. Clinton played identity politics and forgot about the working class and it cost her the Presidency.
5
From the 2016 polls, and back at least to the Truman-Dewey election, and many other examples, political polls are mostly worthless. People polled often either A) don't know themselves until they walk into the voting booth - but rarely say they are 'undecided' B) don't bother to actually vote when the time comes C) knowingly lie to the poll takers (for a variety of reasons).
3
For eight years the stated and primary goal of Congressional Republicans was to do everything in their power to make President Obama a failure. They did this by openly blocking any actions he took, even though the actions were all legal. How could anything be more perverted and despicable?
Now we have Congressional Republicans whose primary goal is to protect Donald Trump, one of the most contemptable, devisive, ncompetent and corrupt presidents in our history from being held accountable for what could be the biggest election scandal in our nation’s history.
The Republicans in Congress have absolutely no moral right to be the majority party in the US. The party is morally bankrupt and will hopefully lose big in November. We deserve better than what they have to offer.
3
"Eroding" is a lot better than "collapse."
What does it take for America to wake up to the looming disaster?
The Dems have so much to work on and yet "the fight for control remains a tossup." That is on them, not the Republicans
4
No Bos, It's on the voters. The Democratic voters didn't turn out enough in the midterms and local elections in the pat - hopefully they learned their lesson. Having the vote is a responsibility and a privilege you cannot just neglect without losing your democracy.
17
I found this analysis to be overly (and superficially) analytic. Generic ballots are OK for prognostication most of the time - here Republican support has recently improved based on short term “positive news” coming from the GOP and White House - that improvement will surely drop back in coming days as folks digest what’s going on and how it affects them.
There’s a reason why people are referring to this election as a wave - it’s developing into having a completely different dynamic and a lot of traditional boundaries, structures and rules, many of them designed to obstruct participatory democracy are about to be tested. It’s called the Resistance and it’s being driven by actual, true populism that may have initially coalesced around opposition to Trump but that rage would have had little if any staying power if it hadn’t been harnessed by the practical “how-to” organizational manuals put out by the Indivisible folks who have taken all of this back as far as the most local of campaigns.
I’ve commented on many occasions in NYT reader posts that true populism always is driven bottom-up where politics is built around bottom-down. Politicians make lousy populists.
3
Democrats will never win unless they field good candidates! and they will never get them unless and until they support them--even if they don't in their "wisdom" think they can win. Winning means getting in at the beginning or even before, and not second guessing the race.
I'm sick of seeing the DNC decide that their candidates are hopeless and then jumping in only when the polls draw close almost entirely through the efforts of local supporters. Ditto relying on "minority" votes to win (as essential and important as they are). We just lost a chance to flip a State seat in Minnesota. Where was the DNC? Absent, as usual.
18
This presumes that the Republicans will permit a system of honest voting.
2
Sadly, although the Dems could prevail in the overall popular vote, the new districting plan in PA just submitted by our GOP legislators would still produce a large majority of GOP Reps. How can we make sure the districts reflect more closely the actual popular vote of the state as a whole? Sigh!
5
the PA governor will veto this plan, sending it to a special master
The polls are moving toward the Republicans but they're advantages are diminishing? That's kind of silly.
5
Stu Rothenberg's column yesterday titled "The Generic is Falling!", explains why the polls aren't really moving toward the Republicans.
Ms. Veselnitskaya is a Russian national. Emin and Aras Agalarov (named in the emails) are Russian nationals.
The thing of value was opposition research against HRC. It was promised in the emails.
Donald John Trump Jr knowingly accepted the offer when he made a positive response by email.
The law says a foreign national is prohibited from even promising to make a donation of a thing of value in connection with a Federal election.
11 CFR 110.20(b) Contributions and donations by foreign nationals in connection with elections. A foreign national shall not, directly or indirectly, make a contribution or a donation of money or other thing of value, or expressly or impliedly promise to make a contribution or a donation, in connection with any Federal, State, or local election.
The law says that it is prohibited to accept any donation prohibited by paragraph (b).
11 CFR 110.20(g) Solicitation, acceptance, or receipt of contributions and donations from foreign nationals. No person shall knowingly solicit, accept, or receive from a foreign national any contribution or donation prohibited by paragraphs (b) through (d) of this section.
The actual meeting on June 9, 2016, and the invitation to Jared Kushner and Paul Manafort to accompany Donald John Trump Jr to the meeting were simply DEMONSTRATIONS of his willingness to accept the offer. By then, the acceptance was in the bag, and little boy Donnie was on the hook.
Donnie the Dunce can tweet but the facts do not change.
6
HRC is not an elected official now. The FBI investgated TWICE and found nothing to charge her for, most recently October 28 to November 6, 2016.
Why are you still beating a dead horse?
I still do not understand how supposedly intelligent Americans vote against their own self-interests. For instance, they must surely know in Trump country that their new-found health care was the result of Democrat governance. They must know that most Republicans are anti-minority (wink, wink racist?), anti-women, anti-LGBT, love the rich,and do not care about helping the poor. They must know by now that the Republicans are basically destroying democracy with their virtually treasonous sabotaging of the Mueller investigation. Go figure.
15
I really don't think they do know that their new found health coverage was possible via the ACA.
3
If you are an ideologue, nothing will deter your extremist beliefs. Emoting is stronger than reasoning, in other words.
3
I remember the Tea Party voter who yelled that government should keeps its hands of her Medicare, and another one who was terrified of having a Muslim (Obama) as president. The rich in their view are blessed by the Lord and justly rewarded, and the poor must have done something wrong to be poor. Women should obey their husbands and anything but sex within marriage between a man and a woman is a mortal sin. And Obamacare is an abomination, and they aren't aware their health care depends on it. Because that's the ACA and that's something different... That's the average ill informed Trump voter for you. They don't want democracy, they want a strongman to protect them.
2
From your pen to God's ears.
3
Vote as if your life and our country's future depends on it, because it does! Also join swingleft.org and democraticredistricting,com They could use your help.
18
I like Cohn's thinking. But he's really got to do a better job editing. I've read the following sentences several times. Still seems contradictory. "It’s the working-class districts where Democrats are likeliest to have true recruiting holes, like New York’s 24th or California’s 21st. That might seem somewhat odd because Democrats have had so much success luring top-tier candidates in working-class districts." Huh ?
4
what we need is an rigorous analysis not an opinion and include the impact of tax cuts if democrats voted against them
1
"Democrats would need to win the popular vote by 7.4 points to take the House." That line in the last paragraph of this excellent analysis says it all. I already knew it to be true, but to see it laid out as cold hard fact (no criticism of Nate Cohn, it's his job), brings tears to my eyes. How in the world can anyone claim that America is a democracy when Republicans have so irreparably damaged our republic that they hold an automatic 7.4 point advantage, not just for one legislative seat, but for the entire legislature? Republicans have turned everything I learned in school about American democracy into a lie. America is becoming authoritarian because the votes cast by millions upon millions of Americans are not counted. Republicans are now indistinguishable from anti-democratic libertarians; interested in forming a society to represent only a very few, very wealthy people, while everyone else gets little to no representation or freedom. It’s why the Republican Party is so corrupt; its current philosophy is inherently hostile to democracy. Trump’s adoration of Russia’s Putin is treated as an aberration; it isn’t. Many Republicans loved Chile's Pinochet, even though he was no different than Stalin, because he loved the wealthy and talked about markets. It's why Jefferson Davis is so admired by many Republicans and was posthumously admitted to the Libertarian Hall of Fame. Democracy is reviled by Republicans, and champions of totalitarianism, oppression, and slavery, exalted.
18
Trump could start a crisis or find some black athletes to whip up opprobrium at the last minute to improve his odds. But if Democrats win , I hope they will avoid vengeful gerrymandering or other behaviors that would suggest they are the new Republicans
3
Useful analysis, but you buried the lede, dumping it all the way in your final paragraph: Dems would need to win the popular vote by about 7.4 percent to win back the house. Couple that with the Dems winning the 2016 popular vote for the presidency by almost 3 million votes and the overall popular vote for Senate that year by even more. The result is anything but a democracy.
15
The pink hats are indeed coming........and we’re casting votes for Dems!
25
It's about time Democrats got a fair chance.
3
They had 8 years to try. Guess that didn't work.
2
8 years? How long were Republicans in charge of congress? Surely, you can count that far?
Vote, despite the GOP gerrymandering, vote despite the GOP voter suppression laws, vote despite the broken machines in poor democratic voting districts .
Vote as if democracy depends on it, BECAUSE IT DOES.
30
I wish so many journalists weren't failed political science majors. This isn't about republicans vs democrats. This is about the voters of this nation. This is about the people of this nation. This isn't that republicans advantages erode as democrats increase this is about how unfair gerry mandered districts are being thrown out leading to more potential representatives that reflect the will of the people. *sigh* this is why we can't have nice things
6
Prepare for bucket loads of Republican dirty tricks and shenanigans. Like a painful kidney stone, these monsters will not pass easily.
13
For what it's worth, Stephanie Miner has since backed away from her statement that she wouldn't run for NY-24. Local media outlets state that she's on the fence.
6
There have probably been a hundred articles on gerrymandering for every seat the Democrats have likely gained in the House through the courts. The media should admit that they have made a big deal out of next to nothing, and they have blamed Republican deception for what has mostly been the result of Democrat failures.
4
If that's true, and Democrats have nothing to gain by fighting gerrymandering, then republicans have nothing to loose and should not oppose efforts to curtail partisan redistricting.
17
So they’re all idiots. I have no disagreement with that. But I assume you agree that the media has sided with the Democrat idiots.
1
I suspect that the apparent strength of Democratic candidates' fundraising in well-educated areas, vs. the better recruiting of former elected officials in more working-class districts, may be driven by the substantially higher wealth of residents of the highly educated districts.
4
Gerrymandering and Citizens United are the two greatest threats to our democracy (besides Trump) and must be eliminated for our voices to count at the ballot booth.
53
It does rile me considerably that Democratic candidates must on average get around 7% more votes to win, due to Republican structural advantages. (Read, large-scale Republican anti-democracy efforts past and present.) However, the Republicans have been working overtime to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch.
15
Thank God.
To quote TIMES commenter Sarah from New York a few days ago addressing Trump and Kelly:
"We are coming for you in November in our pink hats. Just wait."
39
The missing element in this discussion makes Cohn's conclusions premature, if not invalid: turnout. In the recent Virginia election, which the Democrats claimed as a "wave" victory, fewer than half of the registered voters bothered to vote. Thus, half the electorate is up for grabs in November, and at the moment there is little to indicate what might motivate those potential voters to vote, let alone how those newly motivated to vote in the next election would cast their ballots.
3
Sure, but DEMS will still need to go flat-out for these mid-terms.
And this includes down ballot races. Flipping State Houses, State Attorneys General, State Secretary of State, Governors, County Commissioners Blue in Nov is super important. Don't just vote, get your friends and neighbors to vote also. Volunteer to help with a campaign. Even small donations to tight local races can make a difference. A Blue Wave ain't going to happen on its own.
Do you even know who your statehouse Reps are? Find out. You may be surprised. I sure was and not in a good way.
10
Democrats can easily win the house if they stop talking about Russia, Impeachment and start talking about the economy.
19
If only there were such a a thing as a "generic" congressional candidate. It will take more than angry headlines to dislodge a Republican incumbent.
1
First I read that Democrats were losing their advantage, then that Republicans are losing theirs. Or maybe they're random fluctuations that reporters are trying to turn into a story?
2
I hope, Mr. Cohn, you are more accurate this time in your predictions than when you anticipated the victory of Hillary Clinton.
12
Sergio, even this Democrat was incredulous when talk of bots and Russian manipulation started surfacing months before Nov2016. Certainly many of us blindsided voters are not incredulous anymore. This was no ordinary election, my friend & crystal balls were on back-order.
4
Except she did win, by 3 million votes.
4
Clearly, the polling was accurate in predicting the popular vote. As the outcome hinged on a few thousand votes in a few districts - thanks to a mind-numbingly ludicrous electoral system - the margin of error is magnitudes larger than these swing votes.
Seriously, your credibility on this was shot after 2016 (and you also dismissed Bernie out of hand repeatedly, to the point that many readers wondered whether you had an agenda). It is really a waste of time speculating so far out as well. Furthermore your conclusion is inconclusive. So what is the point of this article?
9
I wonder how the "budget" Trump just proposed will affect the numbers Nate Cohn has parsed here. Trump proposes yet more massive increases to defense spending while decimating a host of domestic programs with massive cuts, including Medicare. Proposing draconian cuts to either Medicare or Social Security has always been considered the third rail of American politics. Trump promised not to cut Medicare or Medicaid, but he has proposed massive cuts to both, as well as programs like food stamps, and he isn't even trying the time-worn Republican ploy of pretending that it has anything to do with reducing the deficit, because the budget doesn't seek to reduce the deficit, just steal money from the elderly and give it to the military industrial complex as well as spend it on a wall most Americans don't want. This has Mick Mulvaney's fingerprints all over it, but it is hard to see how the American people will not hold Trump, who is Mulvaney's boss, and the Republicans, who are biting at the bit to do this, responsible. It is seems that this must favorably impact how Democrats need to do on the generic ballot. Court rulings have either struck down or highly limited Republican gerrymandering. As Cohn notes, decisions in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia have already cost Republicans three House seats and weakened them throughout thosestates. All of this is significant on a state by state basis, but the proposed cuts to Medicare have national ramifications.
6
"The Republicans still retain formidable advantages, enough to win the House while losing the popular vote by a wide margin."
Why does the popular vote margin even matter in the house? I expect that a democrat in NY or CA will always win a house seat by more than a republican in SD or MT.
I think Hillary could still win this thing.
2
The Democrats need a unified message across all districts. Universal healthcare starting with medicaid as an option for everyone. Reverse fec vs United--make it clear how our campaign finance laws (lack of) have greatly favored the wealthy. Take climate change very seriously--this is also a matter about telling the truth: make telling the truth an issue. Energize first time voters to both vote and volunteer; do this with the Truth (above) and guaranteed national service jobs and college tuition assistance like all other W. Democracies. the latter, Bernie Sanders has a hedgefund tax proposal, or matching funds to states (the states are vastly under funding higher education), and/or outright grants in key sectors, such as nursing, MDs, math and science. The Republicans obviously don't care about family values (their voters know this), don't take the bait and find me too pc candidates. Actually look for some salaciousness to put forward to counter made up negative charges. After their support of Trump, any pandering they make on this issue is a joke.
Let Nancy Pelosi talk about faith--she's actually inspirational here with the right message. Theme overall should be, "for the common good" Remind voters, Promote the General Welfare is in the Constitution, and not just for the 1% at the expense of everyone else.
8
Democrats need to locally tailor their message and focus on moderates. I am a swing voter and I don't want to lose my private insurance or have my taxes raised for "free college" for just anyone irregardless of talent or major.
1
Couldn't happen soon enough.
2
In response to the title of this article - here is one word, from a registered independent who is fiscally conservative and wants govt. out of people's bedrooms -
GOOD
8
In addition to the missing issue of turnout we have the distinct possibility of indictments of the Trump Crime Family and their Toadies.
2
But Democrats still have yet to learn how to use instant messaging and media to the max. They have not yet copied the techniques used to Trump and the Right.
Rambling on and on, is not the way for Democrats to win. They must be copycats, in order to use all the tricks possible to win. No more endless rambling, on and on...
Yes, we still can, if we wise up, now.
===========================
6
Well put.
People remember Clinton's 1992 campaign for "It's the economy, stupid." But they lived by another maxim as well: "Speed kills."
And Hillary was going to be president, right?
2
Democrats are better at getting votes while Republicans are better at distributing them.
1
Many of the residents in the 'less educated' areas are waking up to the fact that the GOP actually represents only one group, the American oligarchs and oligarch wannabes. This GOP administration and congress is heaping debt on all of the citizens, which puts the lie to their claims of fiscal responsibility. At the same time the GOP and this administration are aggressively cutting services to the entire population, with the exception of the 0.01%, their oligarch employers. Many in the less educated area were tricked by the rhetoric of a con man and a con party, but these people are not stupid, and they will eventually evaluate the actual behavior of the GOP and Trump, and ignore their phony lies and propaganda.
4
New research has found that those who are elderly (who on average experience cognitive decline) and those who are already cognitively challenged but not elderly, are less capable of perceiving lies and fake news as not reality--even after it has been shown conclusively to be fake they can't seem to let go of the lies as truth. In other words, those with less or declining cognition, once they buy into the lies and propaganda have a very difficult time rejecting the falsehoods as incorrect. This is why con-artists frequently prey on the elderly.
1
Let's hope the Republican cheat-fest is finally over. Clean out the House of these self-serving, lying, thieves and cross your fingers that it's is finally over. Let their donors subsidize them from now on. Don't they owe you given the Christmas (not holiday) tax bonanza you gave them? Ryan has already gotten a check from the Koch's -- go work for them officially since you are clearly not working for the people of this country.
7
The 2016 election was a disaster on many fronts. Firstly, Trump was placed in office by a corrupt electoral system by only 29 % of the US voting population. He lost the popular vote to Hillary by 3 million. Beyond that, 40 million registered voters stayed home. Republicans depend on voter suppression, gerrymandering and voter apathy.
Furthermore, we must face a huge cash barrage from the extreme right like the Kochs and others. The Kochs have already pledged to spend more than $400 Million in 2018 to stave off the Democrats . They thank John Roberts for his Citizens United decision every day for what he has done to empower them .
Democracy has become a sham in this country and will remain so until the people rise up and go to the polls in numbers large enough to overcome the Republican strategy for stealing elections.
10
This "corrupt electoral system" (The Electoral College) has been in place for more than 200 years. Trump won by a fluke. Amazingly, the Democrats have not talked at all about amending the Constitution to replace the EC with one-person-one-vote.
5
Hahaha - why yes, if Democrats wanted to amend the constitution to change a system that ensures Republicans claw to power, all they would have to do is say so...
A lot of their "structural" advantages are derived from cheating. No wonder there are a lot of GOP jesters in Trump's court who are not really all that concerned about Trump's involvement with Putin and electoral cheating from an adversarial country. Would a swindler even consider that to be adversarial?
5
I'm not sure my comment is completely germane to this article but here goes anyway. When Trump won the White House, I believe Republicans lost seats in the house and senate. Is this a common occurrence? Doesn't the party that wins the presidential election usually pick up seats? Does this factor into your calculation of the Republican advantage?
1
The missing element in this discussion makes Cohn's conclusions premature, if not invalid: turnout. In the recent Virginia election, which the Democrats claimed as a "wave" victory, fewer than half of the registered voters bothered to vote. Thus, half the electorate is up for grabs, and at the moment there is little to indicate what might motivate those potential voters to either vote or to stay at home come November, let alone how those newly motivated to vote in the next election will cast their ballots.
9
Most important at this time is to convince the non-voter that his/her vote MATTERS. I think voter apathy is a consequence of deep-seated cynicism re: politics. The point must be made in anticipation of this very critical election.
Let's be clear, that democrats won the majority, but lost in the gerrymandering. Actually, let's be really clear, with the GOP on their side, most of the work of the Russians is being done for them.
19
There's something wrong with a system that allows a party to win big but still lose the popular by a wide margin.
Sadly, this system seems self-perpetuating if we don't get every single anti-GOP voter to the polls in 2018.
That not only means you and your friends, but time spent on the phone helping get out the vote in the swing states. We need your help out here!
49
The "something wrong" was the Constitution and its obsolete "Electoral College" rule. Nor have the Democrats shown any interest in fixing it, even if they win.
4
There's nothing to "fix". The EC was put in place so that the entire country wouldn't be run by the majorities in two states (you know, that little thing called tyranny by the majority). No one wants to be ruled by CA and NY alone.
You keep repeating this as if that makes it more true. Look up the process for amending the constitution, and that should give you a clue why this is a pipe dream.
And now let's add proposed deep cuts in Medicare. If seniors can't pay, their children usually have to.
7
If they have children, and if their children have the funds to do so. Many of the elderly will just have to face the Republican death panels (i.e., congress/DT) who will undoubtedly decide to gut medicare to the bone since they define the non-wealthy and the elderly as not worthy to live.
3
We could end up having a legislature with a composition that reflects the popular vote. What an interesting concept - some call it democracy.
58
Just don't understand your comment.
All of the US Senate and House are elected through popular vote. The President is elected, and this is specified by 48/50 states, through electing Electoral Representatives. That is how our Representative Republic works.
1
"All of the US Senate and House are elected through popular vote." They are elected by popular vote, but who gets to vote for them depends on gerrymandering.
However, current Democratic complaints about gerrymandering strike me as hypocritical. Gerrymandering was rampant in my state under Democrats -- so much so that 5 new cities were incorporated after the Dems lose their power to obstruct them.
Ivan is referring to the fact that in many recent election cycles the Representative who won often did so only because he or she was 'protected' from the true will of the popular vote because districts were carved along extreme partisan divides, without regard to randomness or democratically (small d) 'logical' boundaries, which meant that in some states Republicans won both in Congress and at the state legislative level by numerical margins that were exactly opposite to the popular will of the voters overall. While it is true that both parties have used such gerrymandering sleight-of-hand strategies, the Republicans of late have practiced it to a shamelessly (much!) higher degree. Two great links will greatly improve on my reply/explanation...
https://www.quora.com/In-simple-terms-what-is-gerrymandering-What-are-so...
http://election.princeton.edu/
Also,both the NYTimes and WaPost have had marvelous articles covering these issues.
Dems are very good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
14
Raise your hand if you are tired of winning. Me? I'm exhausted.....
6
To vote Republican is to vote for the destruction of the democracy of the United States
68
They'll conjure up new advantages
5
Here's your slogan, Democrats: "We need to restore our system of checks and balances over the most unfit, dangerous, corrupt and indecent president in history."
Repeat over and over and over and over and over and over...
70
You can do that, but repeating it over and over does not make it true.
5
too many words. It may be true but the dems have a problem with wordiness and nuance.
Something that sticks to the ribs next time like: More Money for You!
2
Funny.....that seems to work for the Rs......
I'll believe it when the votes are done being counted. Most of the public, based on the media's polls, expected to see something different in November 2016. And we sure did see something different. Media poll taking and opinions do not count for much these days. All one has to do, if one has some conservative acquaintances on FaceBook, is to look at the postings. Democrats are in real trouble. They have no real leaders and the only agenda they appear to have is far left and a sure loser.
3
Would you mind clarifying for me how you define far-left? Minimum wage adjustment? Pro-union? Pro education? What is it that the Democrats stand for that you are not liking? If you ask me, they're not far enough left. I am forced to agree, however, with remark that the Dems are experts at snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.
2
Well, not so sure. There has been a massive grassroots effort from Dems since the inauguration. Remember the"Women's March"? This last year's march, their focus was on registering people to vote. There have been meetings in people's homes across the country to help promote progressive candidates (and winnable candidates in red areas). They make phone calls, knock on doors, write postcards, and are growing massively in numbers. See one example (link below) from the upcoming PA-18th special election.
Honestly? I would not be surprised if Ted Cruz AND Paul Ryan both lost their own districts this fall.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/02/the-next-special-election-i...
3
"Would you mind clarifying for me how you define far-left? "
Supporting open boarders by not supporting enforcement of our immigration laws and conflating legal immigration with illegal immigration
Forcing Nuns to provide birth control to their employees
Forcing evangelical business owners to participate in gay weddings
Claiming that inequality of outcome is proof of inequality of opportunity
Forcing High Schools to let boys shower with girls
Pushing taxpayer funded late term abortions of viable fetuses
I could go on but I'm about to run out of characters
1
Why should I believe any of this, when you were so terribly wrong on Trump?
14
It’s hard to believe Cohn after the numbers were so profoundly wrong in 2016. Does anyone else have this problem? And we never really got an explanation. We just got, “Something was obviously very wrong with our science in 2016, but just believe us again the next time.” Maybe it would be easier to believe data “experts” like this if they explained why they thought there was a tiny chance Trump would win and then he easily won.
9
It was because of the Former FBI Director James Comey - he single-handedly stole the election from Mrs Clinton. Comey should be investigated for unlawfully influencing the election.
2
The biggest obstacle to the Democrats winning back the House is the Democrats.
Almost every day that passes, they become more fanatical in their commitment to their ideology, and more obstructionist in their behavior. Nancy Pelosi's "filibuster" stunt was a perfect example.
They have no message except that everybody else is a racist misogynist bigot.
Problem is, not every place is California.
12
You mean, the Republicans got caught with their hand in the taxpayers' cookie jar, caught with a degenerate leader and caught cheating the voters.
The real question is why they got away with this scam for so long.
7
This next election is not up to the Democratic Party to put forth the perfect candidate; not too liberal, somewhere in the middle, maybe a little more liberal than that, you know... John F. Kennedy.
We the People must vote for the democrat on our slate and make sure there will still be a democracy in America. Doesn't matter who he or she is; once sworn in then we can begin to mold them toward the vision we would like. The only important thing to remember; republicans must be put back into permanent minority status or this democracy is done.
It might be a good idea for reporters and editors and publishers to remember that in a fascist state reporters, editors and publishers are usually out of work. And in prison.
9
Yeah, I don't think so.
Lets put up Fozzie Bear in the Denver area. This snowflake with vote for him.
So, you want to mold the elected democrat just like the GOP thought that they could mold Trump?
As Shakespeare wrote, "What's in a name?" Any DINO could get into office if we vote blindly the way you suggest--and then we'd be right where we are now. No thanks.
Don't underestimate Republican efforts to rig the system. Republicans in Pennsylvania submitted a redistricting map to the Democratic governor that was just as gerrymandered as the old one. They have no honor, they have no shame. They cannot be trusted with our democracy.
67
The president's approval rating has steadily increased since the passage of the tax cuts in December, reaching about 41% today. This rating is still disastrous for mid-term prospects (Obama's rating was far higher before the mid-terms in 2010) but the Democrats need to be careful. There are still a lot of people who do not understand that they will lose out on the tax cuts. The added income is negligible for most people and the price hikes in essential services like healthcare will offset any benefits. The GOP has offered Democrats plenty of really strong ammunition to run an effective campaign focused on policy but I'm alarmed by how little I hear about this from the party. They need to get out there and stay on message. Attacking Trump personally will not guarantee victory. Attacking his blatant hypocrisy and retreat from economic populism, on the other hand, will be effective.
9
Actually Hawk, while President Obama's approval rating at the same point in his presidency (in February 2010) was higher than 41%, his approval rating was lower than that by Election Day 2010. Unemployment climbed steadily through his first year in office (reaching 10% by the fall of '09), then stayed stubbornly high (above 9%) through his second year. The combination of continued economic struggle, the widespread feeling that his administration was insufficiently focused on boosting the economy amid its preoccupation with the ACA and the unpopularity at the time of the ACA itself drove President Obama's approval ratings into the 30s by the fall of 2010, thus making the Democrats' election slaughter that year quite predictable.
1
This is partly right, my apologies for the inaccuracy. Obama's mean approval rating in the fall of 2010, however, was not in the 30s but between 45-50%. Trump will still need to work very hard to gain the additional 4-9 percentage points that amount to huge changes in mid-term elections, given that he has alienated independents and liberals hate him.
People have to vote, and the Democrats need a clear simple message of what they offer other than 'not as bad as'. 'Not as bad as' is bad.
7
No GOP Congress member has a spine which would allow them to stand up to Trump. Instead in year 2 they are slithering away by opting out of the whole mess. If Trump continues to be 'himself' and the GOP continues to be cowardly, more cut and run will occur which will help. The Dems need every bit of help they can get.
5
It is insane and wrong that the Democrats have to win by 8 points or more to obtain a majority in the House. That is autocracy, not a democratic republic.
9
No it's simply a reflection of how deeply unpopular the Democrats are outside of major metropolitan areas and college towns.
3
Gerrymamdering and vote theft
Since the democrats have no idea what is important to US citizens, the republicans have little to worry about.
5
Don't forget the lesson of 2016. Don't believe what all the experts are predicting. Remember the anointed one was predicted as a hands down winner. We all know the centers of Socialism will vote for anything with a DNC label. Can't say that about the rest of the world.
1
You are getting this all wrong. Hillary was widely disliked and Trump was a wild card. Those voters who who either reluctantly voted for Trump and took their chances or voted for anyone but Hillary are now swing voters.
With the realization that Trump is a terrible president, many of these voters will vote for the democratic alternative. That is if the candidate is not overly progressive but is inclusive. Look at Alabama and Virginia.
No mention of abortion, no DACA, it's jobs, infrastructure, social programs and the economy; Medicare and Social Security.
There are those evangelicals and hard core conservatives who will never vote democratic and vice versa.
7
So I'm one of those voters who went third party. Thing is as obnoxious as President Trump acts, I really like what he's done. i.e. Less regulation and lower taxes. Meanwhile the Democratic party keeps moving closer to socialism, and appears to be doubling down on identity politics.
Of course Dems shouldn't mention abortion. It's a losing issue and they know it. That's why they removed it from voters' control 45 years ago, and why they're terrified the Supreme Court may hand it back.
Moving closer to Socialism? Can you explain this absurd comment further?
Democrats need a solid plan, just being anti-trump is a waste of time. So far what voters have gotten from the Republicans is a tax cut for the wealthy and corporations and a curtailment of the ACA. The Dems need to address health care, infrastructure, education, immigration, Social Security and Medicare, job training and re-education.
13
Yes. We need a Democratic Manifesto, laying out in clear, unambiguous terms, their abiding philosophy and plans to fix this country. And then, sing it from the rooftops!
Yay! So happy...
... about the possibility that I can look forward to the Republicans and Democrats leapfrogging each other every 8 years or so....
... and ...
both sides passing ever higher budgets with ever deepening national debt to be paid by our children's children's children's children.
But frankly, I'd prefer that all of the rascals when back to their former day jobs ....
... and find out what it is like to deal with the likes of rascals like themselves.
Daryl
Daryl's Roadside Honor System Vegetable Stand and Dairy Produce
Well written, but innumerate. The Y-axis on the chart is listed in "points" which is not defined. All we know is that more negative is bad for the GOP.
3
It is ironic that the Democrats would have a hard time winning in less educated districts. This was always their strongest constituency. They had better have a great message and a great strategy to regain both the House and Senate. Just trashing Trump will not do it.
6
I'm a lifelong D but I have little confidence in Schumer or Pelosi to extricate America from the clutches of the deep pockets caused by Citizen's United. Ds need to hire someone like Frank Luntz to win the obvious victory in Nov. The planet, MeToo, the economy, Dreamers, and our democracy cannot afford another weak kneed, lackluster approach in the upcoming contest. As a former Marine, I accept that I cannot perform like I did when I was 25. Schumer and Pelosi need to accept their limitations and install someone who can win nationwide. Once we have control of the HR & Senate, we can work on a litany of measures including the impeachment of the most inept and scurrilous president ever to occupy the WH. Failure is not an option so for the good of the nation, Schumer and Pelosi need to step aside and allow young Marines take the battle to the republicans. PLEASE!!!
8
I'm curious: could falsely accusing somebody of treason be considered an impeachable offense?
Listen to Socrates..."Register and vote, America." Our present day mentor of aspiring Plato's has said it all. No debate. Thank you, sir.
3
When democrats replace republicans, cleaning up the mess they made is going to be like cleaning up an aircraft hangers' worth of hoarding. It seems to be a strategy of theirs to leave the repairing up to progressives like they were SuperFund. They got away with the loot , in and out, imposing any new tax bill to claw it back would be too harsh. Its as if that was the strategy. Sneaky!
1
If elections were won on facts and logic there would be a Democratic administration in office. Elections are largely emotional as we learned post election with the election of Donald Trump.
Analysis of facts and logic and national concerns overlook the highly emotionally charged atmosphere of mischaracterization and fear that the Republicans create and exploit in elections with campaign ads and social media that focus on issues that people will motivate people to vote from fear even if it means voting against their best interests.
Right now people may be thinking, "I am not stupid, I can am getting $5 more but I know the big wigs are getting millions more - time to vote them out." But when the election comes ads will remind them that they are under constant threat, "OK, maybe the rich are getting richer from me, but I don't want any of those other people taking my money, so yes, I'm checkin' the R again."
3
Lots of people want abortion law returned to democratic control. And they did the logical thing to accomplish it: vote for a candidate who was desperate to make a deal on the issue.
There is an easy fix for this. Get rid of Trump and go back to being the Party of Lincoln. Today's G.O.P. has to many factions and people don't want to support either party when only a slim majority agree on something.
As long as nothing is done about Russian interference in the election process, there is NO clear path for Democrats to regain the House. And this White House has shown no interest in preventing Russian interference.
2
Maybe I missed it, but there’s a big Gerrymandering WI decision coming up in the Supreme Court this Spring.
Where does that fit in if, as hoped, WI must redo its districts?
5
I believe Cohn is right today. But in two months there could be changes in either direction. Also, I think that 2018 is likely to be won or lost on turnout. Convincing the members of the other party is harder, so making the other party dispirited is the best strategy for either side.
6
Control of the House is going to come down to turnout. If 2017 is any indication, Republicans are in for a world of electoral hurt.
8
"The Republicans still retain formidable advantages, enough to win the House while losing the popular vote by a wide margin."
Really? That isn't how a democracy is supposed to work. The House was supposed to be democratically elected because the Senate was never intended to be. As things stand today, the GOP controls all three branches of the federal government without a single popular mandate.
89
Correct. Systems under which a minority of the voters can elect the President and a majority of the Representatives are not democracy, they are the death of democracy. These can be corrected with the National Popular Vote initiative and with non-political redistricting.
1
I don't think so- Millions of Americans will see a small bump in their pay checks this week. That's all they'll need to think the GOP is in fact "looking out" for them- while the Democrats try to convince their constituents that amnesty [and free college] for 10 million undocumented immigrants is the best thing we can do as a nation. That and better movie roles for transgender actors. The GOP will clean up in 2018 and Trump will be re-elected.
8
Unless one frames it exactly as you have, the Trump Administration has not been a success. Unfortunately, Americans are pretty bad at thinking long-term or thinking of others, especially when it comes to money, so you could be right even though your interpretation is pretty wrong.
Amnesty and free college for 10 million undocumented immigrants? That would be some trick, given that there are only 800,000 DACA recipients.
I know, I know. Don't tell me: That's still 800,000 too many. Right?
Only if your view of Democrats and Independents are forged watching the the GOP propaganda channel- (a.k.a. Fox 'News')
That lousy $30-100 bump just got eaten up with higher gas prices, higher deductibles for health care and general inflation, and a lot of the those who voted for Trump on a lark, are now either angry or embarrassed. They especially see the GOP as nothing more than a rubber stamp for their donors fantasies and sold all of the rest of us 'up a river'.
Let's face it, Trump and the GOP's 'base' is the least educated, gleefully vengeful, fact averse and hyper christi-religious going, and their creepy and angry attitude has turned far more people off...and also alarmed so many...that the GOP shouldn't be so sure that their structural lock will stand up to a stirred-up electorate that' sick of the republicans, and their insane psychopathic 'leader'.
2
Trump has announced he wants to cut Medicare and Social Security to pay for his grand military buildup and for infrastructure right on the heals of a huge tax cut to millionaires and billionaires. Well, good luck with that. If he was trying to destroy the republican party, he could not be doing a better job. And the republicans continue to blindly follow him, provide cover for him and endorse everything he says and does, further increasing the velocity of their demise.
13
A big problem the Democrats have is that the Republicans and our president seem unwilling to do anything to stop the Russian government from interfering in our elections.
It's been confirmed that that Russia has gotten into the voter rolls of 21 states. There's also the ongoing misinformation campaign which will probably get worse as we get closer to November.
The GOP is aiding and abetting Vladimir Putin to diminish the integrity of our elections.
23
Gerrymandering was wrong and undemocratic when the Democrats invented it and it was still wrong and undemocratic when the Republicans perfected it. Thank God the judicial system is beginning to recognize this. Hopefully they will finally come to their senses and see that money is, in fact, not the same as free speech.
36
Something that is hard to measure but that is influencing this election is passion. Trump has so ignored the will of the people and the rule of law that many people who didn't care much about politics in the past are passionate about removing Trump from office and stopping his outrages -- such as banning travel to the US for several countries, building a useless
wall and profiteering from his elected office -- that they are very focused on making this election an anti-Trump one.
From where I sit people are more passionate about this election than any I can remember except the one that elected Obama.
Many people are getting involved and running for office just to rid of Trump and his corrupt followers. This is a passionate election.
37
A note of prudence is appropriate for both parties. It is the Mueller investigation and eventual report. Suppose the report finds unethical business practices, and obstruction of justice but no overt treasonous behavior? What then?
Suppose the activists on the hard left (and wildly ambitious Dems like my own junior Senator--ask Al Franken) ignore economic proposals, healthcare, electoral cyber-security, and fairer tax laws in favor of every identity politics wish list item like open borders in all but name and "free" this or that in a ruinous defecit era? All bets are off then.
5
The basic problem is the electorate. Americans do not vote.
Under the most propitious circumstances, in the most important races with the most dramatic possible outcomes, Americans still don't and won't vote.
Case in point: In November,in one of the most educated ,wealthy,cosmopolitan districts in the State, an election whose outcome would determine control of the Senate was held. Millions of dollars poured in from all over the US. Two strong well organized and financed financed candidates squared off. Voting in the State was entirely by mail. No barriers to registration existed on a local or statewide basis.
Turnout was 40%, while registered voters constituted perhaps 70% of the qualified electorate.
The end result; perhaps 15% of the electorate decided the outcome.
14
I daresay it's not only retirements and reversals in gerrymandering that might be stoking a trend toward voting Democratic in the next elections -- but also what Republicans have wrought since gaining control of all three branches of government, along with their blind support for the words and actions of Donald Trump.
Between the G.O.P. tax reform plan that will continue to reward the wealthy at the expense of everyone else, and the recent decision to grant more spending to the U.S. military while decreasing funds to Medicare, more and more Americans are beginning to get the picture that Trump's "new American moment" has nothing to do with them.
And it's about time they did.
14
The battle now is not about changing minds, it's about winning contests that have been rigged to favor the Republican incumbent. I have hope that the younger generation knows how to fight and will do all they can to gain House control and put America back on course.
24
Those 34 Republican retirements Mr. Cohn mentions, and even more the net +17 figure compared to Democratic retirements, reach near-historic proportions. Beginning in 1938, only four Congressional elections have seen a double-digit difference in retirements. The figure for 2018 is only bested by 1958, when 21 more Republicans retired than Democrats. The Democrats increased their margin in the House that year, though it was in the midst of a major recession.
http://www.politicsbythenumbers.org/2018/02/01/republicans-continue-to-l...
3
From my admittedly personal viewpoint, the retirement of many congresspersons and senators is a good symptom that their party is in crash mode. These are the insiders and they don't want to be part of the losing bunch. And the Republicans are bailing like the proverbial rats leaving the sinking ship.
This is a truly bad sign for the Republicans.
5
Our country would be a lot healthier if we got rid of safe districts, ended gerrymandering, and increased the representation in the house so that our citizens were evenly represented. Politicians would be forced to compete on ideas instead of knowing that their seat is safe so they don't have to do much for those who elected them. Hopefully the courts continue to strike down gerrymandered maps until this nonsense stops.
In the meantime we need to get out there and vote. We need to get out there and register people to vote especially our young people. On election day help transport people to the polls who might otherwise not be able to easily vote thanks to all of the polling stations that were closed in areas that tend to vote for Democrats.
We learned on election day that polls are not infallible. Don't be complacent about the importance of participating in democracy. A healthy democracy is not a spectator sport.
21
I'm frustrated by the graph in the article. Without context, the story it tells is one of Republican struggle, when in fact, as the article suggests, the map is still largely structured to support the GOP.
A better graph would show the point advantages Republicans had gained by gerrymandering districts, and the effects of the recent rulings starting to claw back equal representation for districts.
27
Help us Obi One. You are our last hope to save The Republic. Everyone, please go out and vote and pull the lever for everything with (D) beside it. Otherwise, the Emperor cannot be stopped.
63
That method of voting got us where we are at. People need to stop blindly pulling levers for people just based on political party. Unless, of course, they like getting elected officials who end up embarassing their party and supporters.
1
Doesn't matter whether polls are up, or down. There is no room for complacency in November. The Republic depends on it.
199
You're right! Vote Republican !
Puleeze! It's over for you folks. Trump is a disaster. Get over it!
We can but hope...
And vote, and donate, and organize, and above all VOTE
91
For those efforts to amount to more than hope we must vote Democrat. Any other action only makes the Republicans stronger, as does inaction.
Republicans won't lose their majority because democrats by and large don't vote in midterm elections.
Anything else anyone tells you is overly optimistic fluff.
9
That may have been the case two years ago. Now most people turn out to vote for anything - even dog-catcher. I know I don't let one ballot slip by unread, or un-voted. The only good thing that may have come from a Trump Whitehouse is the loss of apathy. Our lives now literally depend on paying attention - it is the biggest act of civil engagement we can take - VOTE.
19
It is at least possible that fear will actually overcome Democratic laziness.
3
Standard RWNJ attitude: believe what I tell you and don't pay any attention to any other views.
Invest in an oxygen tank - you'll need it on Nov. 6.
2
The democrats need to present a concerted effort to convince the rational thinking people of the United States that the only way out of this mess to to marginalize the Republican party.
The need to drive efforts in states where gerrymandering and voter laws have minimized the voices of many people, and bring these people back into the fold.
And they need to revise their message that the party is working for people, not those who have purchased and corrupted the political system is this nation.
25
And who and where are these 'rational thinking people of the United States'?
1
Definitely the Democratic Party has very good opportunity to take over the House. I am a die hard Democrat but am not very optimistic. Because my party always mess up and forgot how to win elections. The Republican Party had a worst presidential candidate , but we lost. Because a big number of African-American did not bother to vote, lot of Hispanics voted for Trump, the Purist Democrats hated Hillary more than they hate Trump and Bernie voters stayed home on election day. Now the Democratic Party is deeply divided and fighting. Most of the voters at the center. The Party does not need any kind of litmus test. We have to find the winnable candidates. Ground work, knocking every door and using social media are important because bring voters to the polling booth is the most important job and challenge.
25
Hispanics did not vote for Mango.
Most voters voted for Hillary. And given recent revelations about hacked machines she likely won the electoral college as well.
3
The trouble with NYTimes articles of this type is that we no longer can feel we are reading objectivity rather than advocacy. There is no objective source left...anywhere.
Apart from that, much depends on the winds at that time of the election. Will 401's be so full or so depleted that such a reality dominates the results. Will wages rise further by then? Will Trump be taken by God or by Mueller? We don't know. Way too early for such articles.
7
What is not objective about this? It focuses on how and whether democrats might win, but that doesn't mean it is subjective.
26
Political scientists place considerable weight on the "quality" of the challengers when assessing Congressional elections. Prior elective experience is a common proxy for "quality" and has been show to improve a challenger's chance of victory. Since candidates have to file well in advance of an election, knowing which party has fared better in attracting "quality" candidates can be an early bellwether for the election's result.
5
I would say that the NYT has gone out of their way to represent the right. This in fact is the first article stating that the Dems MIGHT have an advantage in November. Until today every recent article has been stating that the Republicans still looked strong. Do you read the NYT daily? For a paper that makes it's money on liberal subscriptions - they do a pretty darn good job of representing conservative voices too. Far better than say - FOX new does at balancing the slant of news.
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Here's the bottom line imo.
Democrats have a good chance of winning the house after the country has seen Trump for what he is, a bigot, rabble rouser, philanderer, admitted sexual predator, pathological liar, money loving ego maniac demagogue.
Having said that the dems can greatly lessen their chances of taking back the Congress if they run identity obsessed, never met a war, trade agreement, Wall Street banker candidates like Hillary .
Run progressive populist candidates in these swing, republican areas like the democratic Senator from W. Va. or the newly elected democratic senator from Ala.
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But these elections will be tampered with too since the Republicans value whatever money the Russians are promising over the actual basis of democracy. Say from cuts they'll give for allowing mining in national parks etc. Or else they'll be blackmailed since it seems so many of them were part of the "transition team'.
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Sounds good. But imho the much more important arena is to take the Senate, to stop the appointment of right-wing and/or know-nothing federal judges. The judiciary is the one piece of Trumpish changes that cannot be rolled back fairly quickly and easily, even by a Democratic sweep in 2020.
FOCUS ON THE SENATE!
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Very good points Joel. The problem is that the talk about the Democrats actually regaining a Senate majority this year still seem overly optimistic. The Democrats need a net gain of 2 seats to regain the majority, and have a realistic shot of flipping the seats currently held by Dean Heller in NV and Jeff Flake in AZ. But they have to defend 26 out of the 34 seats up for election this year, including several in solidly red states (WV, ND, IN, MO and MT) where Trump is quite a bit more popular than he is nationally and others (FL, OH, PA and WI) which Trump won in 2016 and where the GOP has credible candidates running. Merely holding the Republicans to their current 51-49 majority would be a GREAT outcome for the Democrats given how tough this year's Senate map is.
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"Focus on the Senate" Huh?
Republicans are picking up 10 Senate seats in November. It's the reality of the numbers.
Deal with it!
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Objectively the map doesn't favor a retake of the Senate in 2018. Doesn't mean Dems shouldn't give it their all, but much better shot in the House.
If the Democrats can only offer up immigration for the rest of the year they will lose out. The Republicans are handing out money while the Democrats want to hand out invoices to the American taxpayer to foot the immigration debt that all of us will be paying.. I am not anti- immigration, just calling it as I see it. The Democrats better start talking jobs and infrastructure for the rest of us and put immigration on the back burner.
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The other issue Americans care deeply about is the ENVIRONMENT. Democrats must remind voters very clearly how Trump and his administration have systematically chipped away at our environmental protections. Those who care about the future of our children will take this into consideration in the ballot box.
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Welcome to the roller coaster ride that will be the months before the midterms.
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Like 1994 with the Democrats seeming eternal hold on the House the Republicans have reached a place where neither love nor money are going to keep them in control. The Rs attempt at cleverness in the recent tax cut give away to plutocrats, they couldn't help but stick their finger in Blue State eyes with their tax raise. Of course there are many R voters that have been targeted by the increase. This guaranteed resentment and retribution against the Rs. Not to mention that Trump is very unpopular.
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I don't understand your logic.
Blue states had a finger stuck in their eye by the right wing... so what?
That just means the blue states will stay blue, and meanwhile republicans will stay in control...
And Trump's lack of popularity doesn't mean a single thing. It's been shown that a minority of right-wing voters can easily decide the election.
Not every seat in Blue seats is blue. But the ones that are not will be
The Republicans have nothing to fear in the 2018 elections. Republican voters usually keep voting Republican and do not defect. Democratic voters tend to be younger, not registered to vote and not inclined to vote in a mid-term election. Democrats could hardly bring themselves to vote in the 2016 election, even when it was obvious that President Trump had caught up to Mrs Clinton.
Plus, under 40 voters can barely bother themselves to pull away from their phones, on-line porn and games long enough to remember to register, then actually vote.
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Register and vote, America.
Help another person to register and vote
https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote
Donate to organizations that help American citizens to register and vote, even just $1.
https://www.rockthevote.org/donate/
Tyranny of the minority is NOT the American way; it is the Russian-Republican way, and it has been destroying America for decades.
Enough of the Republican dictatorship, corruption and spitting in the faces of America's Founding Fathers, already.
Republicans have rejected democracy.
Let's reclaim democracy on November 6 2018.
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The biggest roadblock for a Democratic takeover in the House right now is the immediate effects of the Republican tax bill.
Never mind that it is a giveaway to the rich oligarchs and blows a huge hole in the deficit, and never mind that most people, including the poor and what's left of the middle class, will see an increase in their taxes some years down the road. What most will see is that at least for the first few years, they will have a little more in each paycheck. And since too many voters aren't that sophisticated, they are likely to vote their slightly thicker wallets in 2018 and 2020.
Evidence of this is already here in the upticks in Trump's approval rating and in the favorability ratings of the tax bill itself. That has come with a corresponding decrease in the percentage of likely voters saying they will vote Democratic on the generic congressional ballot.
Of course, given the way Trump behaves, many more off-putting comments and scandals are likely between now and the midterms, and it's always possible Mueller finds a very smoking gun. But I wouldn't count on any of that, or on a Democratic wave election in 2018, no matter how many angry #Metoo tweets there are.
Democrats need very much to go back to the old ground game, and make sure people are registered and then brought to the polls. The Alabama election showed everyone it's the turnout, stupid.
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The tax bill is all smoke and mirrors. All that money showing up in paychecks is being borrowed. Many won't understand. It will be borrowed from the American taxpayer.
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The Alabama election was an outlier that's in no way indicative of any other election, unless every right-winger on every ballot turns out to be a serial child molester.
In other words, don't hold your breath.
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Glenn I share your sentiments. But I'm doubtful that people will really notice a few extra bucks in their paychecks. They sure didn't when Obama reduced their payroll tax in 2011. Of course, democrats don't go around bragging about how great they are for cutting your taxes by a few bucks, unlike the republicans who trumpet it at every opportunity but fail to mention that the cut is temporary and that corporations and the 1% got much, much more. Focus needs to be on the ground game as you suggest. If democrats get to the polls, we can change the current dysfunctional Congress to an institution that will, once again, conduct the people's business.
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