Big Republican Advantages Are Eroding in the Race for House Control

Retirements and reversals in gerrymandering give Democrats a clearer path to a majority.

Comments: 188

  1. The biggest roadblock for a Democratic takeover in the House right now is the immediate effects of the Republican tax bill.

    Never mind that it is a giveaway to the rich oligarchs and blows a huge hole in the deficit, and never mind that most people, including the poor and what's left of the middle class, will see an increase in their taxes some years down the road. What most will see is that at least for the first few years, they will have a little more in each paycheck. And since too many voters aren't that sophisticated, they are likely to vote their slightly thicker wallets in 2018 and 2020.

    Evidence of this is already here in the upticks in Trump's approval rating and in the favorability ratings of the tax bill itself. That has come with a corresponding decrease in the percentage of likely voters saying they will vote Democratic on the generic congressional ballot.

    Of course, given the way Trump behaves, many more off-putting comments and scandals are likely between now and the midterms, and it's always possible Mueller finds a very smoking gun. But I wouldn't count on any of that, or on a Democratic wave election in 2018, no matter how many angry #Metoo tweets there are.

    Democrats need very much to go back to the old ground game, and make sure people are registered and then brought to the polls. The Alabama election showed everyone it's the turnout, stupid.

  2. I am not confident of a Democratic wave in 2018. If the Democratic Party had stronger, bolder leadership in Congress, I'd feel more optimistic. But, Schumer and Pelosi are weak, ineffective leaders who have demonstrated in this last year an inability to rally Democrats.

  3. Democrats also need a much more clearly expressed vision of where they are intending to take this nation, a new definition of national purpose. Being anti-Trump and focused on mudslinging negatives is not enough!!!

  4. I think it is key for Democrats and Press to keep investigating and publishing how much of a largesse the rich and corporations have received in the tax cuts in comparison to their crumbs. We need specific examples (like the Martin Skkreli of price gouging fame) on how much money from tax cuts go towards increased executive compensation.

  5. Register and vote, America.

    Help another person to register and vote

    Donate to organizations that help American citizens to register and vote, even just $1.

    Tyranny of the minority is NOT the American way; it is the Russian-Republican way, and it has been destroying America for decades.

    Enough of the Republican dictatorship, corruption and spitting in the faces of America's Founding Fathers, already.

    Republicans have rejected democracy.

    Let's reclaim democracy on November 6 2018.

  6. Like 1994 with the Democrats seeming eternal hold on the House the Republicans have reached a place where neither love nor money are going to keep them in control. The Rs attempt at cleverness in the recent tax cut give away to plutocrats, they couldn't help but stick their finger in Blue State eyes with their tax raise. Of course there are many R voters that have been targeted by the increase. This guaranteed resentment and retribution against the Rs. Not to mention that Trump is very unpopular.

  7. I don't understand your logic.

    Blue states had a finger stuck in their eye by the right wing... so what?

    That just means the blue states will stay blue, and meanwhile republicans will stay in control...

    And Trump's lack of popularity doesn't mean a single thing. It's been shown that a minority of right-wing voters can easily decide the election.

  8. The Republicans have nothing to fear in the 2018 elections. Republican voters usually keep voting Republican and do not defect. Democratic voters tend to be younger, not registered to vote and not inclined to vote in a mid-term election. Democrats could hardly bring themselves to vote in the 2016 election, even when it was obvious that President Trump had caught up to Mrs Clinton.

    Plus, under 40 voters can barely bother themselves to pull away from their phones, on-line porn and games long enough to remember to register, then actually vote.

  9. Welcome to the roller coaster ride that will be the months before the midterms.

  10. If the Democrats can only offer up immigration for the rest of the year they will lose out. The Republicans are handing out money while the Democrats want to hand out invoices to the American taxpayer to foot the immigration debt that all of us will be paying.. I am not anti- immigration, just calling it as I see it. The Democrats better start talking jobs and infrastructure for the rest of us and put immigration on the back burner.

  11. The other issue Americans care deeply about is the ENVIRONMENT. Democrats must remind voters very clearly how Trump and his administration have systematically chipped away at our environmental protections. Those who care about the future of our children will take this into consideration in the ballot box.

  12. Sounds good. But imho the much more important arena is to take the Senate, to stop the appointment of right-wing and/or know-nothing federal judges. The judiciary is the one piece of Trumpish changes that cannot be rolled back fairly quickly and easily, even by a Democratic sweep in 2020.


  13. Very good points Joel. The problem is that the talk about the Democrats actually regaining a Senate majority this year still seem overly optimistic. The Democrats need a net gain of 2 seats to regain the majority, and have a realistic shot of flipping the seats currently held by Dean Heller in NV and Jeff Flake in AZ. But they have to defend 26 out of the 34 seats up for election this year, including several in solidly red states (WV, ND, IN, MO and MT) where Trump is quite a bit more popular than he is nationally and others (FL, OH, PA and WI) which Trump won in 2016 and where the GOP has credible candidates running. Merely holding the Republicans to their current 51-49 majority would be a GREAT outcome for the Democrats given how tough this year's Senate map is.

  14. "Focus on the Senate" Huh?

    Republicans are picking up 10 Senate seats in November. It's the reality of the numbers.

    Deal with it!

  15. Objectively the map doesn't favor a retake of the Senate in 2018. Doesn't mean Dems shouldn't give it their all, but much better shot in the House.

  16. Here's the bottom line imo.

    Democrats have a good chance of winning the house after the country has seen Trump for what he is, a bigot, rabble rouser, philanderer, admitted sexual predator, pathological liar, money loving ego maniac demagogue.

    Having said that the dems can greatly lessen their chances of taking back the Congress if they run identity obsessed, never met a war, trade agreement, Wall Street banker candidates like Hillary .

    Run progressive populist candidates in these swing, republican areas like the democratic Senator from W. Va. or the newly elected democratic senator from Ala.

  17. But these elections will be tampered with too since the Republicans value whatever money the Russians are promising over the actual basis of democracy. Say from cuts they'll give for allowing mining in national parks etc. Or else they'll be blackmailed since it seems so many of them were part of the "transition team'.

  18. The democrats need to present a concerted effort to convince the rational thinking people of the United States that the only way out of this mess to to marginalize the Republican party.

    The need to drive efforts in states where gerrymandering and voter laws have minimized the voices of many people, and bring these people back into the fold.

    And they need to revise their message that the party is working for people, not those who have purchased and corrupted the political system is this nation.

  19. And who and where are these 'rational thinking people of the United States'?

  20. Definitely the Democratic Party has very good opportunity to take over the House. I am a die hard Democrat but am not very optimistic. Because my party always mess up and forgot how to win elections. The Republican Party had a worst presidential candidate , but we lost. Because a big number of African-American did not bother to vote, lot of Hispanics voted for Trump, the Purist Democrats hated Hillary more than they hate Trump and Bernie voters stayed home on election day. Now the Democratic Party is deeply divided and fighting. Most of the voters at the center. The Party does not need any kind of litmus test. We have to find the winnable candidates. Ground work, knocking every door and using social media are important because bring voters to the polling booth is the most important job and challenge.

  21. Hispanics did not vote for Mango.

    Most voters voted for Hillary. And given recent revelations about hacked machines she likely won the electoral college as well.

  22. The trouble with NYTimes articles of this type is that we no longer can feel we are reading objectivity rather than advocacy. There is no objective source left...anywhere.
    Apart from that, much depends on the winds at that time of the election. Will 401's be so full or so depleted that such a reality dominates the results. Will wages rise further by then? Will Trump be taken by God or by Mueller? We don't know. Way too early for such articles.

  23. Political scientists place considerable weight on the "quality" of the challengers when assessing Congressional elections. Prior elective experience is a common proxy for "quality" and has been show to improve a challenger's chance of victory. Since candidates have to file well in advance of an election, knowing which party has fared better in attracting "quality" candidates can be an early bellwether for the election's result.

  24. I would say that the NYT has gone out of their way to represent the right. This in fact is the first article stating that the Dems MIGHT have an advantage in November. Until today every recent article has been stating that the Republicans still looked strong. Do you read the NYT daily? For a paper that makes it's money on liberal subscriptions - they do a pretty darn good job of representing conservative voices too. Far better than say - FOX new does at balancing the slant of news.

  25. This is probably one of the most objective articles possible. It talks about statistics that are easily verifiable. You can disagree about the conclusions reached by it but you can't disagree with the numbers. That's a lot more objective than a majority of information out there, in my opinion.

  26. We can but hope...

    And vote, and donate, and organize, and above all VOTE

  27. For those efforts to amount to more than hope we must vote Democrat. Any other action only makes the Republicans stronger, as does inaction.

  28. Republicans won't lose their majority because democrats by and large don't vote in midterm elections.

    Anything else anyone tells you is overly optimistic fluff.

  29. Standard RWNJ attitude: believe what I tell you and don't pay any attention to any other views.

    Invest in an oxygen tank - you'll need it on Nov. 6.

  30. That may have been the case two years ago. Now most people turn out to vote for anything - even dog-catcher. I know I don't let one ballot slip by unread, or un-voted. The only good thing that may have come from a Trump Whitehouse is the loss of apathy. Our lives now literally depend on paying attention - it is the biggest act of civil engagement we can take - VOTE.

  31. It is at least possible that fear will actually overcome Democratic laziness.

  32. Doesn't matter whether polls are up, or down. There is no room for complacency in November. The Republic depends on it.

  33. You're right! Vote Republican !

  34. Help us Obi One. You are our last hope to save The Republic. Everyone, please go out and vote and pull the lever for everything with (D) beside it. Otherwise, the Emperor cannot be stopped.

  35. That method of voting got us where we are at. People need to stop blindly pulling levers for people just based on political party. Unless, of course, they like getting elected officials who end up embarassing their party and supporters.

  36. I'm frustrated by the graph in the article. Without context, the story it tells is one of Republican struggle, when in fact, as the article suggests, the map is still largely structured to support the GOP.

    A better graph would show the point advantages Republicans had gained by gerrymandering districts, and the effects of the recent rulings starting to claw back equal representation for districts.

  37. Our country would be a lot healthier if we got rid of safe districts, ended gerrymandering, and increased the representation in the house so that our citizens were evenly represented. Politicians would be forced to compete on ideas instead of knowing that their seat is safe so they don't have to do much for those who elected them. Hopefully the courts continue to strike down gerrymandered maps until this nonsense stops.

    In the meantime we need to get out there and vote. We need to get out there and register people to vote especially our young people. On election day help transport people to the polls who might otherwise not be able to easily vote thanks to all of the polling stations that were closed in areas that tend to vote for Democrats.

    We learned on election day that polls are not infallible. Don't be complacent about the importance of participating in democracy. A healthy democracy is not a spectator sport.

  38. Those 34 Republican retirements Mr. Cohn mentions, and even more the net +17 figure compared to Democratic retirements, reach near-historic proportions. Beginning in 1938, only four Congressional elections have seen a double-digit difference in retirements. The figure for 2018 is only bested by 1958, when 21 more Republicans retired than Democrats. The Democrats increased their margin in the House that year, though it was in the midst of a major recession.

  39. From my admittedly personal viewpoint, the retirement of many congresspersons and senators is a good symptom that their party is in crash mode. These are the insiders and they don't want to be part of the losing bunch. And the Republicans are bailing like the proverbial rats leaving the sinking ship.
    This is a truly bad sign for the Republicans.

  40. The battle now is not about changing minds, it's about winning contests that have been rigged to favor the Republican incumbent. I have hope that the younger generation knows how to fight and will do all they can to gain House control and put America back on course.

  41. I daresay it's not only retirements and reversals in gerrymandering that might be stoking a trend toward voting Democratic in the next elections -- but also what Republicans have wrought since gaining control of all three branches of government, along with their blind support for the words and actions of Donald Trump.
    Between the G.O.P. tax reform plan that will continue to reward the wealthy at the expense of everyone else, and the recent decision to grant more spending to the U.S. military while decreasing funds to Medicare, more and more Americans are beginning to get the picture that Trump's "new American moment" has nothing to do with them.
    And it's about time they did.

  42. The basic problem is the electorate. Americans do not vote.
    Under the most propitious circumstances, in the most important races with the most dramatic possible outcomes, Americans still don't and won't vote.
    Case in point: In November,in one of the most educated ,wealthy,cosmopolitan districts in the State, an election whose outcome would determine control of the Senate was held. Millions of dollars poured in from all over the US. Two strong well organized and financed financed candidates squared off. Voting in the State was entirely by mail. No barriers to registration existed on a local or statewide basis.
    Turnout was 40%, while registered voters constituted perhaps 70% of the qualified electorate.
    The end result; perhaps 15% of the electorate decided the outcome.

  43. A note of prudence is appropriate for both parties. It is the Mueller investigation and eventual report. Suppose the report finds unethical business practices, and obstruction of justice but no overt treasonous behavior? What then?

    Suppose the activists on the hard left (and wildly ambitious Dems like my own junior Senator--ask Al Franken) ignore economic proposals, healthcare, electoral cyber-security, and fairer tax laws in favor of every identity politics wish list item like open borders in all but name and "free" this or that in a ruinous defecit era? All bets are off then.

  44. Something that is hard to measure but that is influencing this election is passion. Trump has so ignored the will of the people and the rule of law that many people who didn't care much about politics in the past are passionate about removing Trump from office and stopping his outrages -- such as banning travel to the US for several countries, building a useless
    wall and profiteering from his elected office -- that they are very focused on making this election an anti-Trump one.
    From where I sit people are more passionate about this election than any I can remember except the one that elected Obama.
    Many people are getting involved and running for office just to rid of Trump and his corrupt followers. This is a passionate election.

  45. Gerrymandering was wrong and undemocratic when the Democrats invented it and it was still wrong and undemocratic when the Republicans perfected it. Thank God the judicial system is beginning to recognize this. Hopefully they will finally come to their senses and see that money is, in fact, not the same as free speech.

  46. A big problem the Democrats have is that the Republicans and our president seem unwilling to do anything to stop the Russian government from interfering in our elections.

    It's been confirmed that that Russia has gotten into the voter rolls of 21 states. There's also the ongoing misinformation campaign which will probably get worse as we get closer to November.

    The GOP is aiding and abetting Vladimir Putin to diminish the integrity of our elections.

  47. Trump has announced he wants to cut Medicare and Social Security to pay for his grand military buildup and for infrastructure right on the heals of a huge tax cut to millionaires and billionaires. Well, good luck with that. If he was trying to destroy the republican party, he could not be doing a better job. And the republicans continue to blindly follow him, provide cover for him and endorse everything he says and does, further increasing the velocity of their demise.

  48. I don't think so- Millions of Americans will see a small bump in their pay checks this week. That's all they'll need to think the GOP is in fact "looking out" for them- while the Democrats try to convince their constituents that amnesty [and free college] for 10 million undocumented immigrants is the best thing we can do as a nation. That and better movie roles for transgender actors. The GOP will clean up in 2018 and Trump will be re-elected.

  49. Only if your view of Democrats and Independents are forged watching the the GOP propaganda channel- (a.k.a. Fox 'News')

    That lousy $30-100 bump just got eaten up with higher gas prices, higher deductibles for health care and general inflation, and a lot of the those who voted for Trump on a lark, are now either angry or embarrassed. They especially see the GOP as nothing more than a rubber stamp for their donors fantasies and sold all of the rest of us 'up a river'.

    Let's face it, Trump and the GOP's 'base' is the least educated, gleefully vengeful, fact averse and hyper christi-religious going, and their creepy and angry attitude has turned far more people off...and also alarmed so many...that the GOP shouldn't be so sure that their structural lock will stand up to a stirred-up electorate that' sick of the republicans, and their insane psychopathic 'leader'.

  50. J Paris writes:
    > Trump and the GOP's 'base' is the least educated

    Hmm, prove to me that any other Party has a higher educated 'base'.

    By the way, gallon of gas prices fluctuate based on many factors, deductibles on your health care may have risen, perhaps you should blame your company for not negotiating better for you, and inflation is still under 2%.

  51. I'm not going to get a bump in my paycheck because I'm retired. But I'm probably going to pay more for health insurance because Trump wants to slash Medicare to pay for his guns and his tax cut. So I'm voting against Trump. By the way, retirees turnout more than other voters.

  52. "The Republicans still retain formidable advantages, enough to win the House while losing the popular vote by a wide margin."

    Really? That isn't how a democracy is supposed to work. The House was supposed to be democratically elected because the Senate was never intended to be. As things stand today, the GOP controls all three branches of the federal government without a single popular mandate.

  53. Correct. Systems under which a minority of the voters can elect the President and a majority of the Representatives are not democracy, they are the death of democracy. These can be corrected with the National Popular Vote initiative and with non-political redistricting.

  54. Control of the House is going to come down to turnout. If 2017 is any indication, Republicans are in for a world of electoral hurt.

  55. I believe Cohn is right today. But in two months there could be changes in either direction. Also, I think that 2018 is likely to be won or lost on turnout. Convincing the members of the other party is harder, so making the other party dispirited is the best strategy for either side.

  56. Maybe I missed it, but there’s a big Gerrymandering WI decision coming up in the Supreme Court this Spring.

    Where does that fit in if, as hoped, WI must redo its districts?

  57. There is an easy fix for this. Get rid of Trump and go back to being the Party of Lincoln. Today's G.O.P. has to many factions and people don't want to support either party when only a slim majority agree on something.

  58. As long as nothing is done about Russian interference in the election process, there is NO clear path for Democrats to regain the House. And this White House has shown no interest in preventing Russian interference.

  59. Listen to Socrates..."Register and vote, America." Our present day mentor of aspiring Plato's has said it all. No debate. Thank you, sir.

  60. When democrats replace republicans, cleaning up the mess they made is going to be like cleaning up an aircraft hangers' worth of hoarding. It seems to be a strategy of theirs to leave the repairing up to progressives like they were SuperFund. They got away with the loot , in and out, imposing any new tax bill to claw it back would be too harsh. Its as if that was the strategy. Sneaky!

  61. If elections were won on facts and logic there would be a Democratic administration in office. Elections are largely emotional as we learned post election with the election of Donald Trump.

    Analysis of facts and logic and national concerns overlook the highly emotionally charged atmosphere of mischaracterization and fear that the Republicans create and exploit in elections with campaign ads and social media that focus on issues that people will motivate people to vote from fear even if it means voting against their best interests.

    Right now people may be thinking, "I am not stupid, I can am getting $5 more but I know the big wigs are getting millions more - time to vote them out." But when the election comes ads will remind them that they are under constant threat, "OK, maybe the rich are getting richer from me, but I don't want any of those other people taking my money, so yes, I'm checkin' the R again."

  62. Lots of people want abortion law returned to democratic control. And they did the logical thing to accomplish it: vote for a candidate who was desperate to make a deal on the issue.

  63. And didn't you giver Hillary more than a 90% chance of winning?

    I think I'll wait until election night for the real polls to come in.

  64. I'm a lifelong D but I have little confidence in Schumer or Pelosi to extricate America from the clutches of the deep pockets caused by Citizen's United. Ds need to hire someone like Frank Luntz to win the obvious victory in Nov. The planet, MeToo, the economy, Dreamers, and our democracy cannot afford another weak kneed, lackluster approach in the upcoming contest. As a former Marine, I accept that I cannot perform like I did when I was 25. Schumer and Pelosi need to accept their limitations and install someone who can win nationwide. Once we have control of the HR & Senate, we can work on a litany of measures including the impeachment of the most inept and scurrilous president ever to occupy the WH. Failure is not an option so for the good of the nation, Schumer and Pelosi need to step aside and allow young Marines take the battle to the republicans. PLEASE!!!

  65. I'm curious: could falsely accusing somebody of treason be considered an impeachable offense?

  66. Well written, but innumerate. The Y-axis on the chart is listed in "points" which is not defined. All we know is that more negative is bad for the GOP.

  67. It is ironic that the Democrats would have a hard time winning in less educated districts. This was always their strongest constituency. They had better have a great message and a great strategy to regain both the House and Senate. Just trashing Trump will not do it.

  68. Yay! So happy...

    ... about the possibility that I can look forward to the Republicans and Democrats leapfrogging each other every 8 years or so....

    ... and ...

    both sides passing ever higher budgets with ever deepening national debt to be paid by our children's children's children's children.

    But frankly, I'd prefer that all of the rascals when back to their former day jobs ....

    ... and find out what it is like to deal with the likes of rascals like themselves.

    Daryl's Roadside Honor System Vegetable Stand and Dairy Produce

  69. Democrats need a solid plan, just being anti-trump is a waste of time. So far what voters have gotten from the Republicans is a tax cut for the wealthy and corporations and a curtailment of the ACA. The Dems need to address health care, infrastructure, education, immigration, Social Security and Medicare, job training and re-education.

  70. Yes. We need a Democratic Manifesto, laying out in clear, unambiguous terms, their abiding philosophy and plans to fix this country. And then, sing it from the rooftops!

  71. You are getting this all wrong. Hillary was widely disliked and Trump was a wild card. Those voters who who either reluctantly voted for Trump and took their chances or voted for anyone but Hillary are now swing voters.
    With the realization that Trump is a terrible president, many of these voters will vote for the democratic alternative. That is if the candidate is not overly progressive but is inclusive. Look at Alabama and Virginia.
    No mention of abortion, no DACA, it's jobs, infrastructure, social programs and the economy; Medicare and Social Security.
    There are those evangelicals and hard core conservatives who will never vote democratic and vice versa.

  72. So I'm one of those voters who went third party. Thing is as obnoxious as President Trump acts, I really like what he's done. i.e. Less regulation and lower taxes. Meanwhile the Democratic party keeps moving closer to socialism, and appears to be doubling down on identity politics.

  73. Of course Dems shouldn't mention abortion. It's a losing issue and they know it. That's why they removed it from voters' control 45 years ago, and why they're terrified the Supreme Court may hand it back.

  74. Don't forget the lesson of 2016. Don't believe what all the experts are predicting. Remember the anointed one was predicted as a hands down winner. We all know the centers of Socialism will vote for anything with a DNC label. Can't say that about the rest of the world.

  75. Since the democrats have no idea what is important to US citizens, the republicans have little to worry about.

  76. No GOP Congress member has a spine which would allow them to stand up to Trump. Instead in year 2 they are slithering away by opting out of the whole mess. If Trump continues to be 'himself' and the GOP continues to be cowardly, more cut and run will occur which will help. The Dems need every bit of help they can get.

  77. It is insane and wrong that the Democrats have to win by 8 points or more to obtain a majority in the House. That is autocracy, not a democratic republic.

  78. No it's simply a reflection of how deeply unpopular the Democrats are outside of major metropolitan areas and college towns.

  79. People have to vote, and the Democrats need a clear simple message of what they offer other than 'not as bad as'. 'Not as bad as' is bad.

  80. The president's approval rating has steadily increased since the passage of the tax cuts in December, reaching about 41% today. This rating is still disastrous for mid-term prospects (Obama's rating was far higher before the mid-terms in 2010) but the Democrats need to be careful. There are still a lot of people who do not understand that they will lose out on the tax cuts. The added income is negligible for most people and the price hikes in essential services like healthcare will offset any benefits. The GOP has offered Democrats plenty of really strong ammunition to run an effective campaign focused on policy but I'm alarmed by how little I hear about this from the party. They need to get out there and stay on message. Attacking Trump personally will not guarantee victory. Attacking his blatant hypocrisy and retreat from economic populism, on the other hand, will be effective.

  81. Actually Hawk, while President Obama's approval rating at the same point in his presidency (in February 2010) was higher than 41%, his approval rating was lower than that by Election Day 2010. Unemployment climbed steadily through his first year in office (reaching 10% by the fall of '09), then stayed stubbornly high (above 9%) through his second year. The combination of continued economic struggle, the widespread feeling that his administration was insufficiently focused on boosting the economy amid its preoccupation with the ACA and the unpopularity at the time of the ACA itself drove President Obama's approval ratings into the 30s by the fall of 2010, thus making the Democrats' election slaughter that year quite predictable.

  82. Don't underestimate Republican efforts to rig the system. Republicans in Pennsylvania submitted a redistricting map to the Democratic governor that was just as gerrymandered as the old one. They have no honor, they have no shame. They cannot be trusted with our democracy.

  83. This next election is not up to the Democratic Party to put forth the perfect candidate; not too liberal, somewhere in the middle, maybe a little more liberal than that, you know... John F. Kennedy.
    We the People must vote for the democrat on our slate and make sure there will still be a democracy in America. Doesn't matter who he or she is; once sworn in then we can begin to mold them toward the vision we would like. The only important thing to remember; republicans must be put back into permanent minority status or this democracy is done.
    It might be a good idea for reporters and editors and publishers to remember that in a fascist state reporters, editors and publishers are usually out of work. And in prison.

  84. So, you want to mold the elected democrat just like the GOP thought that they could mold Trump?

  85. As Shakespeare wrote, "What's in a name?" Any DINO could get into office if we vote blindly the way you suggest--and then we'd be right where we are now. No thanks.

  86. I think the replies miss the point. No one wants Fozzie, but better Fozzie than Mussolini. Let's keep our eye on the ball.

  87. You mean, the Republicans got caught with their hand in the taxpayers' cookie jar, caught with a degenerate leader and caught cheating the voters.

    The real question is why they got away with this scam for so long.

  88. The biggest obstacle to the Democrats winning back the House is the Democrats.

    Almost every day that passes, they become more fanatical in their commitment to their ideology, and more obstructionist in their behavior. Nancy Pelosi's "filibuster" stunt was a perfect example.

    They have no message except that everybody else is a racist misogynist bigot.

    Problem is, not every place is California.

  89. It’s hard to believe Cohn after the numbers were so profoundly wrong in 2016. Does anyone else have this problem? And we never really got an explanation. We just got, “Something was obviously very wrong with our science in 2016, but just believe us again the next time.” Maybe it would be easier to believe data “experts” like this if they explained why they thought there was a tiny chance Trump would win and then he easily won.

  90. It was because of the Former FBI Director James Comey - he single-handedly stole the election from Mrs Clinton. Comey should be investigated for unlawfully influencing the election.

  91. Why should I believe any of this, when you were so terribly wrong on Trump?

  92. I'll believe it when the votes are done being counted. Most of the public, based on the media's polls, expected to see something different in November 2016. And we sure did see something different. Media poll taking and opinions do not count for much these days. All one has to do, if one has some conservative acquaintances on FaceBook, is to look at the postings. Democrats are in real trouble. They have no real leaders and the only agenda they appear to have is far left and a sure loser.

  93. Well, not so sure. There has been a massive grassroots effort from Dems since the inauguration. Remember the"Women's March"? This last year's march, their focus was on registering people to vote. There have been meetings in people's homes across the country to help promote progressive candidates (and winnable candidates in red areas). They make phone calls, knock on doors, write postcards, and are growing massively in numbers. See one example (link below) from the upcoming PA-18th special election.

    Honestly? I would not be surprised if Ted Cruz AND Paul Ryan both lost their own districts this fall.

  94. Would you mind clarifying for me how you define far-left? Minimum wage adjustment? Pro-union? Pro education? What is it that the Democrats stand for that you are not liking? If you ask me, they're not far enough left. I am forced to agree, however, with remark that the Dems are experts at snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

  95. They'll conjure up new advantages

  96. Here's your slogan, Democrats: "We need to restore our system of checks and balances over the most unfit, dangerous, corrupt and indecent president in history."

    Repeat over and over and over and over and over and over...

  97. You can do that, but repeating it over and over does not make it true.

  98. too many words. It may be true but the dems have a problem with wordiness and nuance.

    Something that sticks to the ribs next time like: More Money for You!

  99. Republicans 2018- No plan, just a scam!

  100. To vote Republican is to vote for the destruction of the democracy of the United States

  101. Raise your hand if you are tired of winning. Me? I'm exhausted.....

  102. Dems are very good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

  103. We could end up having a legislature with a composition that reflects the popular vote. What an interesting concept - some call it democracy.

  104. Just don't understand your comment.

    All of the US Senate and House are elected through popular vote. The President is elected, and this is specified by 48/50 states, through electing Electoral Representatives. That is how our Representative Republic works.

  105. And now let's add proposed deep cuts in Medicare. If seniors can't pay, their children usually have to.

  106. If they have children, and if their children have the funds to do so. Many of the elderly will just have to face the Republican death panels (i.e., congress/DT) who will undoubtedly decide to gut medicare to the bone since they define the non-wealthy and the elderly as not worthy to live.

  107. There's something wrong with a system that allows a party to win big but still lose the popular by a wide margin.

    Sadly, this system seems self-perpetuating if we don't get every single anti-GOP voter to the polls in 2018.

    That not only means you and your friends, but time spent on the phone helping get out the vote in the swing states. We need your help out here!

  108. The "something wrong" was the Constitution and its obsolete "Electoral College" rule. Nor have the Democrats shown any interest in fixing it, even if they win.

  109. Let's be clear, that democrats won the majority, but lost in the gerrymandering. Actually, let's be really clear, with the GOP on their side, most of the work of the Russians is being done for them.

  110. The missing element in this discussion makes Cohn's conclusions premature, if not invalid: turnout. In the recent Virginia election, which the Democrats claimed as a "wave" victory, fewer than half of the registered voters bothered to vote. Thus, half the electorate is up for grabs, and at the moment there is little to indicate what might motivate those potential voters to either vote or to stay at home come November, let alone how those newly motivated to vote in the next election will cast their ballots.

  111. Most important at this time is to convince the non-voter that his/her vote MATTERS. I think voter apathy is a consequence of deep-seated cynicism re: politics. The point must be made in anticipation of this very critical election.

  112. I'm not sure my comment is completely germane to this article but here goes anyway. When Trump won the White House, I believe Republicans lost seats in the house and senate. Is this a common occurrence? Doesn't the party that wins the presidential election usually pick up seats? Does this factor into your calculation of the Republican advantage?

  113. A lot of their "structural" advantages are derived from cheating. No wonder there are a lot of GOP jesters in Trump's court who are not really all that concerned about Trump's involvement with Putin and electoral cheating from an adversarial country. Would a swindler even consider that to be adversarial?

  114. The 2016 election was a disaster on many fronts. Firstly, Trump was placed in office by a corrupt electoral system by only 29 % of the US voting population. He lost the popular vote to Hillary by 3 million. Beyond that, 40 million registered voters stayed home. Republicans depend on voter suppression, gerrymandering and voter apathy.

    Furthermore, we must face a huge cash barrage from the extreme right like the Kochs and others. The Kochs have already pledged to spend more than $400 Million in 2018 to stave off the Democrats . They thank John Roberts for his Citizens United decision every day for what he has done to empower them .

    Democracy has become a sham in this country and will remain so until the people rise up and go to the polls in numbers large enough to overcome the Republican strategy for stealing elections.

  115. This "corrupt electoral system" (The Electoral College) has been in place for more than 200 years. Trump won by a fluke. Amazingly, the Democrats have not talked at all about amending the Constitution to replace the EC with one-person-one-vote.

  116. Let's hope the Republican cheat-fest is finally over. Clean out the House of these self-serving, lying, thieves and cross your fingers that it's is finally over. Let their donors subsidize them from now on. Don't they owe you given the Christmas (not holiday) tax bonanza you gave them? Ryan has already gotten a check from the Koch's -- go work for them officially since you are clearly not working for the people of this country.

  117. Democrats are better at getting votes while Republicans are better at distributing them.

  118. Many of the residents in the 'less educated' areas are waking up to the fact that the GOP actually represents only one group, the American oligarchs and oligarch wannabes. This GOP administration and congress is heaping debt on all of the citizens, which puts the lie to their claims of fiscal responsibility. At the same time the GOP and this administration are aggressively cutting services to the entire population, with the exception of the 0.01%, their oligarch employers. Many in the less educated area were tricked by the rhetoric of a con man and a con party, but these people are not stupid, and they will eventually evaluate the actual behavior of the GOP and Trump, and ignore their phony lies and propaganda.

  119. New research has found that those who are elderly (who on average experience cognitive decline) and those who are already cognitively challenged but not elderly, are less capable of perceiving lies and fake news as not reality--even after it has been shown conclusively to be fake they can't seem to let go of the lies as truth. In other words, those with less or declining cognition, once they buy into the lies and propaganda have a very difficult time rejecting the falsehoods as incorrect. This is why con-artists frequently prey on the elderly.

  120. And Hillary was going to be president, right?

  121. But Democrats still have yet to learn how to use instant messaging and media to the max. They have not yet copied the techniques used to Trump and the Right.

    Rambling on and on, is not the way for Democrats to win. They must be copycats, in order to use all the tricks possible to win. No more endless rambling, on and on...

    Yes, we still can, if we wise up, now.

  122. Well put.

    People remember Clinton's 1992 campaign for "It's the economy, stupid." But they lived by another maxim as well: "Speed kills."

  123. In addition to the missing issue of turnout we have the distinct possibility of indictments of the Trump Crime Family and their Toadies.

  124. In response to the title of this article - here is one word, from a registered independent who is fiscally conservative and wants govt. out of people's bedrooms -

  125. Couldn't happen soon enough.

  126. The Democrats need a unified message across all districts. Universal healthcare starting with medicaid as an option for everyone. Reverse fec vs United--make it clear how our campaign finance laws (lack of) have greatly favored the wealthy. Take climate change very seriously--this is also a matter about telling the truth: make telling the truth an issue. Energize first time voters to both vote and volunteer; do this with the Truth (above) and guaranteed national service jobs and college tuition assistance like all other W. Democracies. the latter, Bernie Sanders has a hedgefund tax proposal, or matching funds to states (the states are vastly under funding higher education), and/or outright grants in key sectors, such as nursing, MDs, math and science. The Republicans obviously don't care about family values (their voters know this), don't take the bait and find me too pc candidates. Actually look for some salaciousness to put forward to counter made up negative charges. After their support of Trump, any pandering they make on this issue is a joke.

    Let Nancy Pelosi talk about faith--she's actually inspirational here with the right message. Theme overall should be, "for the common good" Remind voters, Promote the General Welfare is in the Constitution, and not just for the 1% at the expense of everyone else.

  127. Democrats need to locally tailor their message and focus on moderates. I am a swing voter and I don't want to lose my private insurance or have my taxes raised for "free college" for just anyone irregardless of talent or major.

  128. I wonder how the "budget" Trump just proposed will affect the numbers Nate Cohn has parsed here. Trump proposes yet more massive increases to defense spending while decimating a host of domestic programs with massive cuts, including Medicare. Proposing draconian cuts to either Medicare or Social Security has always been considered the third rail of American politics. Trump promised not to cut Medicare or Medicaid, but he has proposed massive cuts to both, as well as programs like food stamps, and he isn't even trying the time-worn Republican ploy of pretending that it has anything to do with reducing the deficit, because the budget doesn't seek to reduce the deficit, just steal money from the elderly and give it to the military industrial complex as well as spend it on a wall most Americans don't want. This has Mick Mulvaney's fingerprints all over it, but it is hard to see how the American people will not hold Trump, who is Mulvaney's boss, and the Republicans, who are biting at the bit to do this, responsible. It is seems that this must favorably impact how Democrats need to do on the generic ballot. Court rulings have either struck down or highly limited Republican gerrymandering. As Cohn notes, decisions in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia have already cost Republicans three House seats and weakened them throughout thosestates. All of this is significant on a state by state basis, but the proposed cuts to Medicare have national ramifications.

  129. "The Republicans still retain formidable advantages, enough to win the House while losing the popular vote by a wide margin."

    Why does the popular vote margin even matter in the house? I expect that a democrat in NY or CA will always win a house seat by more than a republican in SD or MT.

    I think Hillary could still win this thing.

  130. Seriously, your credibility on this was shot after 2016 (and you also dismissed Bernie out of hand repeatedly, to the point that many readers wondered whether you had an agenda). It is really a waste of time speculating so far out as well. Furthermore your conclusion is inconclusive. So what is the point of this article?

  131. I hope, Mr. Cohn, you are more accurate this time in your predictions than when you anticipated the victory of Hillary Clinton.

  132. Sergio, even this Democrat was incredulous when talk of bots and Russian manipulation started surfacing months before Nov2016. Certainly many of us blindsided voters are not incredulous anymore. This was no ordinary election, my friend & crystal balls were on back-order.

  133. Except she did win, by 3 million votes.

  134. Clearly, the polling was accurate in predicting the popular vote. As the outcome hinged on a few thousand votes in a few districts - thanks to a mind-numbingly ludicrous electoral system - the margin of error is magnitudes larger than these swing votes.

  135. First I read that Democrats were losing their advantage, then that Republicans are losing theirs. Or maybe they're random fluctuations that reporters are trying to turn into a story?

  136. If only there were such a a thing as a "generic" congressional candidate. It will take more than angry headlines to dislodge a Republican incumbent.

  137. Sure, but DEMS will still need to go flat-out for these mid-terms.

    And this includes down ballot races. Flipping State Houses, State Attorneys General, State Secretary of State, Governors, County Commissioners Blue in Nov is super important. Don't just vote, get your friends and neighbors to vote also. Volunteer to help with a campaign. Even small donations to tight local races can make a difference. A Blue Wave ain't going to happen on its own.

    Do you even know who your statehouse Reps are? Find out. You may be surprised. I sure was and not in a good way.

  138. Democrats can easily win the house if they stop talking about Russia, Impeachment and start talking about the economy.

  139. The missing element in this discussion makes Cohn's conclusions premature, if not invalid: turnout. In the recent Virginia election, which the Democrats claimed as a "wave" victory, fewer than half of the registered voters bothered to vote. Thus, half the electorate is up for grabs in November, and at the moment there is little to indicate what might motivate those potential voters to vote, let alone how those newly motivated to vote in the next election would cast their ballots.

  140. Thank God.

    To quote TIMES commenter Sarah from New York a few days ago addressing Trump and Kelly:

    "We are coming for you in November in our pink hats. Just wait."

  141. It does rile me considerably that Democratic candidates must on average get around 7% more votes to win, due to Republican structural advantages. (Read, large-scale Republican anti-democracy efforts past and present.) However, the Republicans have been working overtime to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch.

  142. Gerrymandering and Citizens United are the two greatest threats to our democracy (besides Trump) and must be eliminated for our voices to count at the ballot booth.

  143. I suspect that the apparent strength of Democratic candidates' fundraising in well-educated areas, vs. the better recruiting of former elected officials in more working-class districts, may be driven by the substantially higher wealth of residents of the highly educated districts.

  144. There have probably been a hundred articles on gerrymandering for every seat the Democrats have likely gained in the House through the courts. The media should admit that they have made a big deal out of next to nothing, and they have blamed Republican deception for what has mostly been the result of Democrat failures.

  145. If that's true, and Democrats have nothing to gain by fighting gerrymandering, then republicans have nothing to loose and should not oppose efforts to curtail partisan redistricting.

  146. For what it's worth, Stephanie Miner has since backed away from her statement that she wouldn't run for NY-24. Local media outlets state that she's on the fence.

  147. Prepare for bucket loads of Republican dirty tricks and shenanigans. Like a painful kidney stone, these monsters will not pass easily.

  148. I wish so many journalists weren't failed political science majors. This isn't about republicans vs democrats. This is about the voters of this nation. This is about the people of this nation. This isn't that republicans advantages erode as democrats increase this is about how unfair gerry mandered districts are being thrown out leading to more potential representatives that reflect the will of the people. *sigh* this is why we can't have nice things

  149. Vote, despite the GOP gerrymandering, vote despite the GOP voter suppression laws, vote despite the broken machines in poor democratic voting districts .
    Vote as if democracy depends on it, BECAUSE IT DOES.

  150. It's about time Democrats got a fair chance.

  151. They had 8 years to try. Guess that didn't work.

  152. The pink hats are indeed coming........and we’re casting votes for Dems!

  153. Useful analysis, but you buried the lede, dumping it all the way in your final paragraph: Dems would need to win the popular vote by about 7.4 percent to win back the house. Couple that with the Dems winning the 2016 popular vote for the presidency by almost 3 million votes and the overall popular vote for Senate that year by even more. The result is anything but a democracy.

  154. Trump could start a crisis or find some black athletes to whip up opprobrium at the last minute to improve his odds. But if Democrats win , I hope they will avoid vengeful gerrymandering or other behaviors that would suggest they are the new Republicans

  155. "Democrats would need to win the popular vote by 7.4 points to take the House." That line in the last paragraph of this excellent analysis says it all. I already knew it to be true, but to see it laid out as cold hard fact (no criticism of Nate Cohn, it's his job), brings tears to my eyes. How in the world can anyone claim that America is a democracy when Republicans have so irreparably damaged our republic that they hold an automatic 7.4 point advantage, not just for one legislative seat, but for the entire legislature? Republicans have turned everything I learned in school about American democracy into a lie. America is becoming authoritarian because the votes cast by millions upon millions of Americans are not counted. Republicans are now indistinguishable from anti-democratic libertarians; interested in forming a society to represent only a very few, very wealthy people, while everyone else gets little to no representation or freedom. It’s why the Republican Party is so corrupt; its current philosophy is inherently hostile to democracy. Trump’s adoration of Russia’s Putin is treated as an aberration; it isn’t. Many Republicans loved Chile's Pinochet, even though he was no different than Stalin, because he loved the wealthy and talked about markets. It's why Jefferson Davis is so admired by many Republicans and was posthumously admitted to the Libertarian Hall of Fame. Democracy is reviled by Republicans, and champions of totalitarianism, oppression, and slavery, exalted.

  156. what we need is an rigorous analysis not an opinion and include the impact of tax cuts if democrats voted against them

  157. I like Cohn's thinking. But he's really got to do a better job editing. I've read the following sentences several times. Still seems contradictory. "It’s the working-class districts where Democrats are likeliest to have true recruiting holes, like New York’s 24th or California’s 21st. That might seem somewhat odd because Democrats have had so much success luring top-tier candidates in working-class districts." Huh ?

  158. Vote as if your life and our country's future depends on it, because it does! Also join and democraticredistricting,com They could use your help.

  159. From your pen to God's ears.

  160. I still do not understand how supposedly intelligent Americans vote against their own self-interests. For instance, they must surely know in Trump country that their new-found health care was the result of Democrat governance. They must know that most Republicans are anti-minority (wink, wink racist?), anti-women, anti-LGBT, love the rich,and do not care about helping the poor. They must know by now that the Republicans are basically destroying democracy with their virtually treasonous sabotaging of the Mueller investigation. Go figure.

  161. If you are an ideologue, nothing will deter your extremist beliefs. Emoting is stronger than reasoning, in other words.

  162. I really don't think they do know that their new found health coverage was possible via the ACA.

  163. I remember the Tea Party voter who yelled that government should keeps its hands of her Medicare, and another one who was terrified of having a Muslim (Obama) as president. The rich in their view are blessed by the Lord and justly rewarded, and the poor must have done something wrong to be poor. Women should obey their husbands and anything but sex within marriage between a man and a woman is a mortal sin. And Obamacare is an abomination, and they aren't aware their health care depends on it. Because that's the ACA and that's something different... That's the average ill informed Trump voter for you. They don't want democracy, they want a strongman to protect them.

  164. Ms. Veselnitskaya is a Russian national. Emin and Aras Agalarov (named in the emails) are Russian nationals.

    The thing of value was opposition research against HRC. It was promised in the emails.

    Donald John Trump Jr knowingly accepted the offer when he made a positive response by email.

    The law says a foreign national is prohibited from even promising to make a donation of a thing of value in connection with a Federal election.
    11 CFR 110.20(b) Contributions and donations by foreign nationals in connection with elections. A foreign national shall not, directly or indirectly, make a contribution or a donation of money or other thing of value, or expressly or impliedly promise to make a contribution or a donation, in connection with any Federal, State, or local election.
    The law says that it is prohibited to accept any donation prohibited by paragraph (b).
    11 CFR 110.20(g) Solicitation, acceptance, or receipt of contributions and donations from foreign nationals. No person shall knowingly solicit, accept, or receive from a foreign national any contribution or donation prohibited by paragraphs (b) through (d) of this section.
    The actual meeting on June 9, 2016, and the invitation to Jared Kushner and Paul Manafort to accompany Donald John Trump Jr to the meeting were simply DEMONSTRATIONS of his willingness to accept the offer. By then, the acceptance was in the bag, and little boy Donnie was on the hook.

    Donnie the Dunce can tweet but the facts do not change.

  165. All the Clinton emails should have been made public. Nixon lost the presidency over an 18 minute tape erasure. HRC erased 50,000 emails and the congress does nothing. Why? Was Nixon's tape private like HRC emails?

  166. The polls are moving toward the Republicans but they're advantages are diminishing? That's kind of silly.

  167. Stu Rothenberg's column yesterday titled "The Generic is Falling!", explains why the polls aren't really moving toward the Republicans.

  168. Sadly, although the Dems could prevail in the overall popular vote, the new districting plan in PA just submitted by our GOP legislators would still produce a large majority of GOP Reps. How can we make sure the districts reflect more closely the actual popular vote of the state as a whole? Sigh!

  169. the PA governor will veto this plan, sending it to a special master

  170. Democrats will never win unless they field good candidates! and they will never get them unless and until they support them--even if they don't in their "wisdom" think they can win. Winning means getting in at the beginning or even before, and not second guessing the race.

    I'm sick of seeing the DNC decide that their candidates are hopeless and then jumping in only when the polls draw close almost entirely through the efforts of local supporters. Ditto relying on "minority" votes to win (as essential and important as they are). We just lost a chance to flip a State seat in Minnesota. Where was the DNC? Absent, as usual.

  171. This presumes that the Republicans will permit a system of honest voting.

  172. I found this analysis to be overly (and superficially) analytic. Generic ballots are OK for prognostication most of the time - here Republican support has recently improved based on short term “positive news” coming from the GOP and White House - that improvement will surely drop back in coming days as folks digest what’s going on and how it affects them.
    There’s a reason why people are referring to this election as a wave - it’s developing into having a completely different dynamic and a lot of traditional boundaries, structures and rules, many of them designed to obstruct participatory democracy are about to be tested. It’s called the Resistance and it’s being driven by actual, true populism that may have initially coalesced around opposition to Trump but that rage would have had little if any staying power if it hadn’t been harnessed by the practical “how-to” organizational manuals put out by the Indivisible folks who have taken all of this back as far as the most local of campaigns.

    I’ve commented on many occasions in NYT reader posts that true populism always is driven bottom-up where politics is built around bottom-down. Politicians make lousy populists.

  173. "Eroding" is a lot better than "collapse."

    What does it take for America to wake up to the looming disaster?

    The Dems have so much to work on and yet "the fight for control remains a tossup." That is on them, not the Republicans

  174. No Bos, It's on the voters. The Democratic voters didn't turn out enough in the midterms and local elections in the pat - hopefully they learned their lesson. Having the vote is a responsibility and a privilege you cannot just neglect without losing your democracy.

  175. For eight years the stated and primary goal of Congressional Republicans was to do everything in their power to make President Obama a failure. They did this by openly blocking any actions he took, even though the actions were all legal. How could anything be more perverted and despicable?

    Now we have Congressional Republicans whose primary goal is to protect Donald Trump, one of the most contemptable, devisive, ncompetent and corrupt presidents in our history from being held accountable for what could be the biggest election scandal in our nation’s history.

    The Republicans in Congress have absolutely no moral right to be the majority party in the US. The party is morally bankrupt and will hopefully lose big in November. We deserve better than what they have to offer.

  176. From the 2016 polls, and back at least to the Truman-Dewey election, and many other examples, political polls are mostly worthless. People polled often either A) don't know themselves until they walk into the voting booth - but rarely say they are 'undecided' B) don't bother to actually vote when the time comes C) knowingly lie to the poll takers (for a variety of reasons).

  177. All Republicans have to do is to tie Nancy Pelosi to every Congressional race. The woman has become an albatross around the Democrats neck. That and hammer home the Republican tax cut to working class people something Democrats voted against. This is like reliving the 2016 race. Clinton played identity politics and forgot about the working class and it cost her the Presidency.

  178. How sweet would it be if you were sitting in Washington knowing all the time that knowledge and information you got there could be sold or traded for money and position, especially with a golf course manager as president who works for tips and favors?

    Could it be that the Tax Break For Realtors benefits Chuck Grassley to the extent he'll allow for this president? Orrin Hatch will fluff his golden parachute in our National Monuments, exits, while you should read the park ranger Edward Abbey's Desert Solitaire all about the beauty of Bears Ears and Escalante.
    The turncoat Fox Tea Party voted in a real estate mogul who works delivering favors and expects loyalty is not interested in due process, quite the opposite. Freedom is a caucus that believes in streamlining. This means you and yours are subject to the knife. Streamlining means favors, cronyism and corruption made legal.
    Tea Party warriors are dragging the United States into more wars. Where does Trey Gowdy go after he steps away from the pie fight? An ex-prosecutor, does he go back to law? (doubt it) military arms specialist as a consultant? Heritage Foundation?
    These republicans stockpile advantage through stacking the deck, sandbagging legislation and using vital governmental information to further their careers and investments.

    They carry your clubs for awhile only to tee off in front of you later.

  179. His budget cuts $554 billion in Medicare spending over 10 years. Social Security will be next. Vote out the GOP.

  180. What Liberals don't understand is that the GOP is NEVER going to peacefully and/or lawfully, say ok you guys win. We have to change our ways.

    That's what Dems do.

    With the GOP there are no lines that can't be crossed to the road for power for power's sake alone.

  181. Thank God! Let's hope this continues. Only way I can see out of this mess!

  182. No hope as long as gerrymandering and the electoral college exist.

  183. Slim and none are the Democrats chances of winning a majority in the house--but if it makes the delusional happy, why not?

  184. "Eroding" provided the GOP doesn't make a phone call to their special friend Vladimir for a little "assistance".

  185. Republicans have become the Grand Oligarch Party. Their leader is Vladimir Putin.

  186. The Democrats had better figure out a clear message that isn’t just about dumping on Trump, and start grooming some capable YOUNG potential candidates and remember that it is still “the economy stupid”.

  187. Nate Cohn will and does write anything. Apparently it does not matter if he puts out totally contradictory opinions one day after the next. Complete with statistics he pulls out from whomever suits his purpose of the moment. I find his vacuity irritating in the extreme.

    If you are going to offer an opinion or argument stick to it or explain your having changed lanes.

  188. I have no doubt that the Democrats will do what they have been doing for the past 16 years, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If you don't get off your behind and vote you deserve what you get. Despair is the only word I can think of. Hipocracy runs so deep in the Republican party that it is part of their DNA