It is not only climate change Trump can't Tweet about. He can't Tweet about Ponzi schemes either.
1
When Trump took us out of the Paris accord he sacrificed our world leadership in environmental issues and this is also reflected in almost every area of our involvement around the world. Tehran will never listen to anything we say as long as we have Trump leading us away from international involvement. Tehran is only one example of how we are no longer a force for good in the world.
1
Climate change and the loss of habitability in the Middle East is a primary cause for states to fail, descending into conflict, and an independent force pushing refugees to flee the region. None of the actors will survive an unmitigated climate disaster.
But recognition and appreciation of a greater threat and common enemy — climate change — offers a rational basis for resolution to bloodbaths like Syria and Yemen. For parties at conflict to come together they must envision a future set of conditions in which current enemies need each other’s assistance.
There is an enormous agenda of work to do for communities and society to survive the climate change we cannot prevent. Fundamentalism has no answers for this. It can only derange the complex order we must have to effectively respond to the challenge. We need everyone to work towards an inclusive future. Starting in the Middle East, we must take immediate action that will prepare and employ people for the demands of this century. We need new ways that are different from what any of us have known -- relations between people and with nature which must be determined by people in their own communities in their own way.
Any program for sustainability will have to be funded. The U.S. and Europe, as well as the wealthy oil producing states, must all contribute to such an effort.
4
This is off topic but thank you for writing about something other than Donald Trump. I was not fully aware of the severity of Iran's environmental problems in particular and the Middle East in general.
2
On the one hand President Trump shames the people of Iran, a country of 3500 years of cultural and historical greatness, by banning them wholesale to coming to the United States, the so-called Muslim ban, thereby striking at the heart of the Iranian national and historical pride. On the other hand, that same Trump tells them he is on their side.
When it comes to democratic forces in Iran, a US president vocal open support for the people of Iran is to Iranian reformist what water is to oil, it effectively pulls the rug from under opposition to the hardliners while empowering those who oppose the moderate democratically elected regime of Rouhani. Given the historical consequences of the US/CIA overthrow of the democratically elected Mossadeq's regime in the early 1950s, and the historical trauma it inflicted othe collective Iranian nationalist psyche, you would think the Trump administration and its foreign policy minions would know better.
Indeed, it is astounding how ignorant the President is about Iran, the history of American foreign policy toward Iran, Trump's own Muslim ban, and its attendant consequences. Sad.
3
A perfect illustration of the real effects of climate change and the conditions created has on the human population (no borders included!).
1
Yet another NYT article or opinion piece mentioning climate change, drought, and the accompanying political instability.
But not one word about overpopulation and birth rates.
Look up the population of Iran fifty years ago, or a hundred years ago. Ditto for Syria. Ditto for every country with an explosion in their human populations which were never able to feed their own people decades ago. Who, understanding their history, would think the countries would be able to grow as fast as they wanted without inevitably running into a situation where the food and water isn't sufficient to stave off starvation and thirst?
2
Take a minute and read the US Dept. of Defense's 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap. "Among the future trends that will impact our national security is climate change. Rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenge of global instability, hunger, poverty and conflict. They will lead to food and water shortages, pandemic disease, disputes over refugees and resources, and destruction by natural disasters in regions across the globe. When I served as a forestry volunteer with the Peace Corps in Niger, the health volunteers would talk about the knife and sword wounds they helped to treat - disputes over water at the bottom of hand dug, 30-40 meter wells. And that was 40 years ago. Apart from US Government expenditure, Americans have donated millions of dollars to organizations responding to drought related famines in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. And we will continue to do so. But, we'll soon need new terminology for "donor fatigue," if we don't begin to drastically reduce our collective carbon footprint.
6
One wonders what is the matter with soldiers who can't figure out what war is usually about: competing tribes trying to control something by out-proliferating each other.
1
We are witnessing in real time the fate of so many past civilizations. Read Jared Diamond's book "Collapse" and you'll see the events in Iran are following the same tragic playbook of population growth, mismanagement of resources, government inaction and climate change that lead to social upheaval and, in extreme cases, an existential crisis.
We just don't learn...
3
As one who lives in Canada (but has dual U.S-Canadian citizenship) I am very aware of the effects of climate change globally. The northern latitudes up here are warming even faster than the in the U.S. Our permafrost is melting, glaciers are retreating and the polar ice cap is shrinking.
However, Canada has 20% of the world's fresh water. What is going to happen, geopolitically, when climate change in the U.S. gets to the point that even the most ardent Fox viewer can't deny that things are changing and that fresh water supplies in the U.S. are dwindling? Well, Canada has only 1/10 the population of the U.S. and, as such, is quite vulnerable to the U.S. seizing its water resources. When things get to that point, the current tugging back-and-forth over NAFTA will look like a child's playground game in comparison.
6
Yeh, Trump couldn’t send this tweet - it’s beyond his abilities, nevermind any supposed blinkers about climate change. Meanwhile the USA has failed to grasp the water situation at home. Ultimately either the Imperial Valley is abandoned or a fortune spent on desalination. What’s the story on the climate change impact of desalination plants??
2
The main reason for Iran's water problem is a regime that's not accountable to anyone. Iranians have managed their resources for thousands of years but under this regime, over 80 percent of the groundwater has been exploited, due to bad agricultural policies and wrong irrigation techniques. Climate change only amplifies the situation. The Islamic State of Iran sends $Billions to Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and South America, but spends very little to resolve the water crisis.
4
My GOD. What happens when the millions of people from these regions start migrating North and West?
2
Trump and his plutocratic allies are doing the same thing here that the power elite have been doing in Iran. When will the people here take to the street like the Iranians? And will Trump and his cronies use the instruments of state power to arrest, imprison, beat and kill those Americans who do take to the streets?
2
this could not have happened to a nicer bunch of people. i would say i hope they stew in their drought but of course they have no water to make stew.
Sure he "could" but really what good would it do for US citizens?
It wouldn't quite measure up to the US adopting the Metric System as a sign of the US joining a world community, vulcanalex, but it might help.
1
"So, kids, if you want to understand the politics of the Middle East today, study Arabic and Farsi, Hebrew and Turkish — but most of all, study environmental science."
Here's a good place to start on environmental science. It's easy and it's free.
https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:DartmouthX+DART.ENVS.02X+2015_...
4
The rarest and precious of anything in our universe . . . LIQUID WATER !
. . . and we dump garbage and sewage in our seas and lakes !
Tom Friedman, who has been tuned into the devastating effects of Climate Change - since it became a topic of discussion . . . tells a tale of terrible things to come.
Sadly, and with a president who views Climate Change as a Hoax, this tale falls on too many deaf ears here in America where many hundreds of millions of gallons are used annually for a prized green lawn.
Yes, California has experienced droughts several times over the last few decades . . . but were never "dry to the point" of dying from dehydration.
The Middle East is now facing years of disaster as the result of Climate Change and "disaspearing water resources" . . . as has Africa and many other continents.
"We're Next" . . . WHEN WILL WE WAKE UP !
9
I'm puzzled. I thought that Rafsanjani was one of the good guys and Achmadinejad was one of the bad guys (and Friedman's sympathies went that way too). This article paints a very different picture.
2
Ahmadinejad was a soldier in the Iran-Iraq War, a much unsung orgy of brutality encouraged by Rumsfeld & Co, with the promise of satellite reconnaissance to give Saddam the high ground advantage to invade a larger nation.
2
Although Iran is run by a self-selected arrogant and looting ruling-elite which beggars the people domestically, and like any militarist wannabe Empire attempts to wage covert wars abroad --- at least the Iranian people recognize that their former country acts, as Hannah Arendt warned her own German country-men and other citizens of all Empires:
"Empire abroad entails tyranny at home".
Whereas the American people don't seem to yet recognize the same "Sorrows of Empire" in our former country.
5
Right now, the US teeters on the edge of theocracy itself.
3
Thanks for this informative article. I read this just after viewing NYT's "The Interpreter" about the collapse of democracies. Look for it on the front page.
The lesson from both pieces -- don't let plutocracies control natural resources. The rich don't care. They will just move away when the water runs out. Or, they will buy water and create a gated community.
In a way, the USA is trying to create its own gated community, walling itself off from the rest of the world as water shortages mount. But we are not immune to unrest because of water shortage. What's happening in Iran can happen here. Once people lose their Bread, Dignity and Freedom they have nothing to lose. How is the Southwest doing with water conservation? How is the California basin where much of our food is grown? We should study what is going on. We are not immune.
Also, we would be wise to not isolate ourselves from the rest of the world. Water issues, climate change issues need global communication and team work to solve.
4
As other readers have pointed out, Thomas should not have side-stepped over-population. All the money that the well-meaning Gates foundation and others have sent to Africa is an utter waste-- if all it is meant to do is save some very sad lives, instead of preventing new lives through massive investments and distribution of Birth Control. All the talk about shortages of food, water, etc. in the Middle East mean nothing as long as the countries are ruled by fanatical fundamentalists who see women as baby machines, and ignore the results of all those babies growing into unhappy adults: testosterone deranged men, and more baby making women. Here in the USA the religious right in a near stranglehold of power attempts to control women's right to an abortion (IE not to raise a child she cannot afford, doesn't want, is unable to care for)-- and increasingly, to limit our access to contraception. In India, poverty cannot and will not be mitigated-- in spite of much to be admired intellectual and material success-- because they keep blowing up their population through entrenched and ignorant devotion to large genetic families. Simply stated the world cannot handle all these people, but here we are...The least a pundit like Thomas owes us is an honest inclusion of over-population in a discussion of horrific shortages of resources.
6
It takes 25 years of development for the human brain to complete its genomic sequence of maturation. When things go wrong and opportunities are lost at any stage of development, a person can be stunted for life, for want of exercise of the brain.
I'd be interested in seeing how many Iranians actually commented on this excellent opinion piece. My heart bleeds for my homeland and its people, but going home is not an option because of the mollahs and their dictatorship. All we can do is hope that the younger generation stands up and takes charge of whatever can be done.
5
More important than studying environmental science, study civics, political science, history and humanism. The future is currently in the hands of idiot tyrant. The solution is to learn how to channel mass discontent into positive civic action - humanitarian governance, to prevent an idiot tyrant from ever gaining power again, to LISTENING to established experts in environmental science.
The future is not depended on leaders who are environmental scientists, the future depends on keeping idiots out of leadership roles, empowering leaders who respect science and expertise, but most of all, value humanity.
6
Study how nature self-organizes to learn how to organize harmoniously.
3
Mr. Netanyahu spoke to Congress in March of 2015:
Here is some of what he said:
Iran’s goons in Gaza, its lackeys in Lebanon, its revolutionary guards on the Golan Heights are clutching Israel with three tentacles of terror. Backed by Iran, Assad is slaughtering Syrians. Backed by Iran, Shiite militias are rampaging through Iraq. Backed by Iran, Houthis are seizing control of Yemen, threatening the strategic straits at the mouth of the Red Sea. Along with the Straits of Hormuz, that would give Iran a second choke-point on the world’s oil supply.
Beyond the Middle East, Iran attacks America and its allies through its global terror network. It blew up the Jewish community center and the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires. It helped Al Qaeda bomb U.S. embassies in Africa.
In the Middle East, Iran now dominates four Arab capitals, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sana. And if Iran’s aggression is left unchecked, more will surely follow.
In the Middle East, Iran now dominates four Arab capitals, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sana. And if Iran’s aggression is left unchecked, more will surely
follow.
So, at a time when many hope that Iran will join the community of nations, Iran is busy gobbling up the nations.
We must all stand together to stop Iran’s march of conquest, subjugation and terror.
The rest is here:
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/04/us/politics/transcript-of-netanyahus-...
3
Environmental science? What a joke. If you want to understand the Middle East today (and sub-Sahara Africa) study miserable government.
1
The local government didn't dry up 95% of Lake Chad.
3
Meanwhile we have a grifter-in-chief who has never read a book -can't read briefing reports and gets his world view from fox news.
Anti intellect and science with the global and historical perspective of a cantelope.
Elected by 62 million acolytes just as greedy and ignorant as him!
"So, kids, if you want to understand the politics of the Middle East today, study Arabic and Farsi, Hebrew and Turkish — but most of all, study environmental science."
AND definitely learn mandarin!
2
Life for the educated in the US is like walking through a science fiction movie where most of the people are frozen in time.
9
I’d been interested in your opinion on Jordan and water issues there.
The whole equatorial band is drying out. The movement of water vapor from the equator to the poles is the basic cooling process of the planet.
1
The sad thing Mr. Friedman is the guy in the white house does not have any idea about what is going on in the World except what FOX news feed him, need I say Trump News.JMO
2
Sounds like a middle east version of the movie chinatown.
2
Which is why Saudi Arabia has come to the US and is virtually stealing our water. They got lucrative contracts out west and they grow their wheat and other crops here and ship them back to their country. They got the contracts because small towns wanted to get rich quick, but they in fact sold our collect soul to the devil.https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2015/11/02/453885642/saudi-hay-farm...
1
DARPA can accelerate their pain, fomenting revolution. And the clandestine experiments, there and elsewhere, were begun years ago. Natural processes cannot be initiated...thus far. However they can be manipulated, encouraged, retarded through science. What manifests for the eye - even the trained or skeptical eye - is what is meant to be seen. Etilogy and cause are purposefully disguised. The public has been conditioned to accept Moore's Law so as to explain away technological advancements; not so in other areas of R&D where the opaque rules. Keeping one's eye on the ball is a mantra not solely applicable to the national past time.
"It came after years of overpumping aquifers by cronies of the regime." Just like here in the U.S.A.
2
Interesting, and reading this I no longer wonder Iran wants to be able to develop nuclear energy. Is this really by the same writer who recently swallowed all the nonsense fed to him by the Saudi regime, by the way?
2
The EPA, Treasury, ICE, Dept. of Interior... The entire administration is our own Revolutionary Guard.
2
The Author, Tom Frieman, is Brilliant so I have to conclude that he conveniently and intentionally forgot to metnion the exploding population in that part of the world and specially in the Muslim countries where Birth Control is considered sinful and against Islam.
While I do NOT want to minimize the impact of the nature; I believe 90%+ of their misery is caused by breeding like rabbits ( the BIGGEST Factor) and very corrupt Governments in these countries. Take these two causes out and the condition would be manageable.
3
According to Wikipedia, the 2017 fertility rate in Iran is 1.8 births per woman. The 2017 fertility rate in the United States is 1.8 births per woman. Granted, the 2017 fertility rate in Saudi Arabia is 2.6 births per woman, and in Egypt, 3.3.
Ironic that the must serious example of water mismanagement in the USA has happened in California led by fervent climate change believers.
1
You do not know what you are talking about. Most of CA's water issues during the 5-year drought (over in NorCal) are because water was "stolen for companies, cronies and pistachio farms." Google Resnicks if you do not believe me. Big Ag (and that's basically all CA ag, save for a few family collectives in places like the Capay Valley)-- did not have to make one sacrifice during the drought, did not have to invest a penny in the public water systems, install drip irrigation, fund water recycling, conserve water themselves-- etc. You can't blame this water mismanagement all Californians will admit to on "fervent climate change believers."
3
Here's a couple tweet that Trump would send in less than a split second:
"Time to build Trump Tower next to Azadi Tower in Azadi Square. Beautiful location, great views. You'll have the freedom to stay at a nice hotel."
"Enqulab Square will look better with Trump Tower. Yes, enqualab. Fight to get zoning permission to build Trump Tower."
There is absolutely no difference between Iran's Republican Guard and America's republican party. Both exist to steal treasure and resources from US all while enriching themselves and their patron/donor class.
The Pentagon has said global warming is our number one national security issue. In a world with a population of almost 8 billion, 80% of whom live in coastal areas, when even a small portion of those people begin to move looking for water and food and shelter there is going to be some disruption.
"Those people" over there are going to quickly become "Us people" over here.
I wonder if the koch, t rumps, et al, really think they and their children/grandchildren will be OK on their little islands of abundance while 300 million well armed people live in an ocean of despair and want?
1
Overpopulation is the elephant in the room. Shortages of essentials are inevitable. The quality of life is eroding for billions.
The oceans are fished out, critical areas for the breeding of fish stocks are being destroyed by development, aquifers are being pumped dry, global warming (caused by population increase) is driving massive droughts.
Wars will start as the starving seek relief.
“God will not provide” & technology has its limits. We need a global effort to stem population growth with the goal to reverse the total population.
Where are the adults in world leadership?
2
Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. The world needs to use the internet to stop corruption. All finances should be posted publicly on the internet. It is easy and cheep. Software could make it instantaneous. There would be severe penalties for intentional illegal bookkeeping. Governments, charities, religious organizations, the olympics, even publicly traded corporations could run true and clean. A new pastime of accounting mavens would form watchdog groups and monitor the worlds wealth for free in the evenings.
2
A fact mentioned but glossed over here is population growth. Until we accept the fact that we humans are straining our natural resources by our increasing numbers these issues will not go away.
2
The news each day just gets worse. Trump and his tariffs. The Asian nations forming their own TPP. Iran falling apart due to decades of corruption by the 'religious' leaders. Evangelicals destroying the reputation of an entire religion, Christianity, kind of like the jihadists tried to do with Islam. Corruption in the US is gaining steam with Trump and his oligarchs.
On the other hand, a Democratic wave seems to be forming. Mueller keeps on trucking. Devos may put some effort into addressing climate change without Trump's approval. California seems to be leading the nation once again with Kansas proving that the R's are simply corrupt and stupid.
I am an optimist, actually.
1
Dear Mr Friedman
Please write an article about Lynda and Stewart Resnick.
They have done and are doing the same to California.
4
And sadly, the Resnicks are cronies of DiFi, whom I otherwise honor for her service. Hate to admit she has been in cahoots with them, but there you have it.
1
My philosophy teacher, Pete Gunter, Ph.D., was an extreme environmentalist. He predicted in my class of 1990 that upcoming wars would be about water. Pete was right: Here we are. You can't drink or water your crops with oil, gold, or technology.
He and his ilk have all but jumped out of their skins to warn us of our severe environmental problems. Most of my classmates back then listened closely to him, frowned, thought about it some more, and then moved on to other things like finding a career, a mate, and affordable housing. The environment is a low priority for most of us, until push comes to shove. I predict little will change; it's just the nature of the beast: We have too many pressing problems, like where we're going to watch the Super Bowl or when we should go on vacation. Plus les choses changent, plus elles restent les mêmes, n'est-ce pas?
1
This seems like a positive side effect of climate change. To the extent climate change is destabilizing our enemies - GOOD.
4
This is eerily reminiscent of the climate-change-drought-water issues that led to the Syrian civil war. Displacement from the countryside into cities (or shanty towns), citizens feeling cynically manipulated and then abandoned by the government, stronger and more severe issues of water shortage. While I take some encouragement from the fact that Iran's population is overwhelmingly younger and more open to a non-Mullah driven society, these climate change issues could overwhelm any rational cultural transition. Is anyone asking 'what if Iran implodes'? Is there any sane leadership in the Middle East looking at these issues? They sure aren't going to get any help from our science denier in chief.
1
"if you want to understand the politics of the Middle East today, study Arabic and Farsi, Hebrew and Turkish - but most of all, study environmental science."
Unpacking this one sentence summary violates the Trump principles in every way.
"If you want to understand" - who needs that? Dismantle the Department of State and the diplomatic core, degrade intelligence, because the reactions of Dear Leader, leading with his gut, are what count.
"Study" - we'll have none of that here, it makes us (ahem, Dear Leader) look weak.
"Arabic and Farsi, Hebrew and Turkish" - what matters is what Dear Leader tweets, and he's got no time for foreign gibberish, it's what he says that matters.
"Study" - not twice.
"Environmental Science" - no science here, makes us look weak, and likely interferes with tweets from Dear Leader. If it doesn't fit in a tweet and isn't endorsed by Fox News, it's fake news of the Chinese hoax variety.
3
They seem very typical of systems in which the leaders are religious. Religion is used as a shield against their true actions. The followers are a cult and so corruption is rampant. It's the same here.
The worlds best hope is that there is mass human die off ahead of permanent environmental damage. It is certain that politicians who are owned by corporations will not do a thing to help. Unfortunately the mass human die off is likely to come after we have passed a point of no return. This is good for the evangelicals because they will view it as the second coming. Indeed, they hope for the destruction, and do what they can to bring it about.
1
So what's so different in Iran than in the U.S.?
It should be obvious that those in power in both countries are enriching themselves and leaving the mass of their citizens only what they aren't taken for themselves and their cronies.
Also, such activities aren't the preserve of any particular political or economic structure or government today, we can see it in democracies and dictatorships, in developing and undeveloped countries.
3
DJT plays on image as madman depending upon situation.
So this real life POTUS seems to me, re: North Korea,
our own semi-madman, imho, is achieving a result in the North's winter Olympics participation.
I deem practical dialog the North & South are having as good, though ye experts may not.
Iran, another very thorny situation, econ problems with its
(apparent) rural or spread-out people plus of course
those bourgeois in its capital, could come around by some Trump fluke too ... no, the mullahs have it too good for neo-Persia to be decent & win-win compromise, but I'm often wrong, and if G-D sometimes could intervene, then ... halleluhah (Hebrew word?).
Humans are preparing a perfect storm. Like an invasive species we waste the resources we have. Those of us who do not over-consume and pollute, the poor, are pro-creating not able to feed or educate their many offspring.
We cannot fight poverty if the population doubles, triples - encouraged by politics and religion and men ruling over women's bodies.
We cannot fight consumerism if we are chained to 'laws of profit'.
We cannot fight waste of resources as long as we believe humans dominate and are separate from nature.
Will we have the willpower to reign in our own consumption and change our economies into a sustainable pattern? Otherwise nature may have a cruel corrective waiting for us.
1
Great analysis of water and corruption in Iran, but the larger lesson here is that we are doing the same thing here in the US. Yes, it's not quite so dramatic here, but the corruption in the way water is governed, and the waste and cronyism that is accepted as normal, is similar. Look at New Mexico's plans for a hugely expensive water diversion on the Gila River (a tributary to the water-starved Colorado), and see who is making those decisions and what's motivating them. Iran's Revolutionary Guard's would feel right at home. The lesson I'd like to convey to students, however, is not to study environmental science, but rather, environmental policy, and most specifically the study of environmental ethics. It is our core principles about water and natural resources that we need to transform. See waterethics.org and waterculture.org for more.
2
As Trump denies climate change, he knows nothing about the years of extreme weather events and persistent drought in Iran, that are the cause of economic grievances and social unrest in recent months.
The environmental degradation is also a result of decades long mismanagement by the establishment - waste. Domestic water consumption is 70% higher than the global average. The ecosystem damages are reaching alarming levels in Iran, forcing millions to flock to urban areas to find work.
Water shortage leads to conflict with neighbouring Afghanistan. In 2001 Iran protested to the UN that Afghanistan was building the Kajaki hydroelectric power dam that would reduce the flow of water to the Helmand - the longest river in Afghanistan. The Helmand is a bone of contention between Iran and Afghanistan. Although it is entirely an Afghan river, it touches the Iranian border. The Afghan plan to build the Kamal Khan dam is another thorn in Iran's side, because it will stem the flow of the Helmand River into Iran - with serious consequences for local agriculture. Iran had been accused of paying the Afghan Taliban to sabotage the construction.
No wonder protesters are so angry with the ruling elites and the Revolutionary Guards. The hardliners behave exactly like the corrupt lackeys in the old days of the Shah they toppled in the 1979 revolution.
2
Please see the Iranian movie "A man of integrity" by Mohammad Rosoulof. It is an inside view of the countryside society in Iran an a support of what described in the article.
2
The country that can help Iran on this situation is Israel - the eternal enemy of Iranian Clerics with their cry "Death to Isreal". Israel reuse more than 70% of their waster compared to less than 14% by California, and their dip irrigation technology is the way ahead of any other country. Their dip irrigation technology companies are working in India to protect the farmers from the drought and vagaries of climate change. This is the time Iran should seek assistance from Israel and address this cataclysmic issue. Mullahs of Teheran may not like this approach but the liberal President should use this as an opportunity to solve the perpetual problem of these two country. This crisis will not disappear, it will aggravate in time. The solution is to address it by technology - Mother Nature only yields to the power of technology.
6
Well, we won't have to worry about drought in our country because Trump, Zinke, Pruitt and Perry have many other ways to destroy our water supplies.
7
Study environmental science? Are you kidding? How is environmental science useful in the middle east, and fake news here in the USA? There is plenty enough crony capitalism and exploitation of the poor in the interest of the ruling elites going on right here, Thomas.
3
Despite all the rhetoric and false pretenses, the most recent wars were primarily about access to oil. We can be sure the next wars will be about access to water.
2
The Department of Defense considers climate change the number one security threat to the US due to drought and fire and the population upheaval they cause. The administration that it works under promotes the idea that climate change is a hoax, communal action to address it (Paris Climate Accords) are an excuse to rip off America and scientific discovery into causes and solutions isn't worth funding.
Elections have consequences. The people, regardless of affiliation, need to wake up and work to elect responsible stewards of this country and this earth.
3
We are doing Iran and its people a real service by staying in the "Iran deal" and keeping the country from wasting billions on further nuclear weapon development.
2
Its nice to have a big picture of the mideast. But whats happening in Iran is happening in alot of other places, including India whose famers pumped their acquifers bone dry. The high birthrate, and the mismanagement of water resources in India will be a bigger problem for the world.
Friedman assumed Trump is rational and consistent, so he cant tweet about facts on climate change and risk looking foolish. C'mon, Tom, you know Potus better than that!
1
Letar focus on America first. What if I send a tweet to Trump. DT if you don't make America Sweden, climate change is going to take America down as it according to TFL is taking Sam
maybe humans are about to get what they deserve.... to profit from the scarcity of a resource that is the basis of life? a scarcity caused by a changing climate? we should not feel one wit superior here is the US. once trump and co. realize there is money to be made, in this way, from the little people's pain? they will be all over it. i sense that trump is about the become a closet believer in climate change. after all, what we are really looking at is climate chaos and we know he loves chaos.
1
Excellent column. As they say, don't mess with Mother Nature. The Trumpinistas and the fossil fuel right wingers cannot allow the words “global warming or human caused climate change” to pass through their lips. It is not allowed and the punishment is severe just as Iranians cannot insult the prophet Muhammad. Trump and his followers with expel you from their world and expunge your prior existence.
Meanwhile if this environmental assault continues, Iran may resemble the next Sodom and Gomorrah and it won’t just be Lot’s wife that turns into a pillar of salt.
3
Time to turn your backyard into a vegetable garden. With a flower border or two, to make it look pretty. Oh, better have enough rain barrels to catch and store all the rain water flowing off your roof.
2
The only thing Trump should tweet is an apology for the misery the US has inflicted on Iran for decades.
Then Friedman should apologize to all the people in region for all the misery he has advocated over the decades also. His disgraceful shilling for the War on Iraq. His breathless celebration of the new crown prince of Saudi Arabia, barely mentioning the slaughter in Yemen. Friedman is very selective in his moral outrage.
Trump should resign and Friedman should start writing novels. And hopefully, with the joyous fury of the people helping them along, the rulers of Iran will follow suit.
4
Reminds of one of George Carlin's late career bits - his rant about 'Save the Planet'.
'Don't worry about the planet! The planet will be just fine. It was here long before us, and it will survive long after we have finished exterminating ourselves.'
6
TFL best to forget Iran. Look homeward and ask what an Iranian might tweet to DT.
DT your total commitment to fossil fuels will insure that we Middle Easterners must leave once fertile land. Where are they to go? Surely not the USA with your ban on all but your Saudi brothers.
But your day is coming too. Mar a Largo will become ocean not desert - drown or burn, you choose.
You could make America Sweden, every city renewably warmed, no coal, oil, natural gas but you won't.
Put on your life jacket.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
1
This story along with the stories about Cape Town South Africa running out of water should be a wake-up call for those of us in America who deny climate change. We too will see environmental disasters rise in number. Be advised.
2
Water, not oil, will be the cause of future wars, some of them civil.
2
Understanding environmental science is much easier said than done. Most people -- particularly those less educated -- tend to think linearly, equating one easily identifiable cause with an easily identifiable effect. Environmental science is much more complicated, and it requires understanding a complex series of causes with effects which are not easy to directly measure.
This is why people like Trump can point to a cold couple of weeks in the northeast part of the US and equate that to proof that climate change is a hoax. His understanding is linear and simple; he feels and sees cold weather, and that become the answer to this issue.
To combat this, we need to continue to spell out for people like Trump that issues like this require a more nuanced understanding of complex factors of cause and effect. Good luck with that.
3
In melancholy, I tend my small patch of forest and gardens. It still rains here in central Virginia. Thankfully.
But I watch the sky, measure the rain and keep planting flowers for the bees. In melancholy, knowing the wind will shift all too soon.
I'm glad I am not young and have no children.
We ain't seen nothin' yet.
8
“So, kids, if you want to understand the politics of the Middle East today, study Arabic and Farsi, Hebrew and Turkish — but most of all, study environmental science.”
Or better still, environmental history.
7
Thank you ! I learn so much from your articles and your books.
3
The environment is a soft issue ignored by the Islamic republic for issues it could instrumentalize politically; foreign and internal threats, the 'export of the revolution' , sectarian and terrorist threats etc etc. Dealing with these sets of issues, desertification, water shortages, etc could be the basis for cooperation regionally and between the US and Iran. What a pity there is not more constructive thinking in Tehran and Washington.Incidentally, could this columnist stop patronising his readers?
1
Overpopulation causes climate stress. 10 billion is 5 billion too many. Nature knows this, and the game will not go well for those that do not understand that population control is the next big thing.
6
This is screwed up! DHS needs to protect me?
Fine, just tell me. I'd rather deal with reality than uncertainty.
The strange events, DHS. I think they like me in a way.
The 20th Century saw Wars for Land and Mineral Resources but at the end of the 21st Century and into the 22nd, we will see The Great Water Wars as entire populations are displaced and Nations vie for precious Water to Grow the food to Feed their People...or perish whilst others lose their lands to inundation and death by the water of rising salty Seas.
No Military can defend against the Winds of Change that carry the salty Dust of lakes and lagoons that once were fed by Monsoons and Snow Melt long since gone as then they.
As an erratic, arid, water-onced World blows dust through the cities that dry and thus, soon will Die.
That Future will soon be our Children's Present, the deadly Gift we make for them now, to give them tomorrow...but Why?
WHY??
Droughts are becoming more and more prevalent, due to climate change and to greedy thugs abusing their station by diverting water from it's 'rightful' course. And willful ignorance 'a la Trump' is like adding injury to insult.
Our President in another one of his brilliant strategic moves has declared war on solar energy and is pursuing a Sarah Palin drill baby drill, dig baby dig, energy strategy. Trump is making the case for those historians who say countries fall from within not from without.
8
While his is an informative and interesting report, it suffers from ignoring the underlying issue of population growth. Iran's 1980 population was about 39 million, a generation or so later it is now about 81 million. This is unsustainable even if water was better managed. Indeed the whole region has this runaway population growth issue, for example since 1980 Iraq's population has gone from about 13 million to 38 million, Afghanistan from about 4.5 million to 29.7 million.... ad so on. No wonder the region is so unstable. And making t worse it the politically correct ignoring the issue by most, plus Trump as usual making things worse by reducing international birth control assistance
4
I am reminded of the Aral Sea. Which reminds me of Vozrozhdeniya. Which is even more frightening than Trump and climate change. Interesting times
3
This is an article about willful ignorance, the perfect storm of denying facts in the face of brutal reality. This is also many stories, Government dysfunction, and corruption, lack of or the destruction of Regulations, Acknowledging Science to guide us thru Climate Change, and finally good old fashion Greed.
Trump and the Republican Congress are poster children for what could possibly go wrong?
1
Destroying arable land is one of the oldest human traditions, dating back thousands of years. The effects have long been evident in deserts and semi-arid lands, especially across the middle east, but now, Africa, China, etc.
Of course, as population is now 7.6 billion and heading toward 11.8 billion by the year 2100 (UN estimate), what possible use could we have for productive land? The same question applies to sprawl in US, too...
Yet another catastrophe made worse by stupidity, greed, short-sightedness, and a soaring number of people demanding the human right to eat on a planet that has limits.
4
Tom is correct that Trump could never send such a tweet. Donald lacks the vocabulary, the analytical reasoning, the necessary background knowledge and the patience to compose a logical statement.
3
We are all Iranians in this crisis. What Mr. Friedman reports is not some separate, isolated patch of the world. This environmental, humanitarian, and governmental disease is all around us, Wake up everyone, and reflect a bit about that next glass of water you draw from the tap.
3
"The Islamic regime and the Revolutionary Guards had rippled off the country’s natural wealth"
How about substituting the names Trump and Zilke in that sentence for another reason besides climate change denial that prevents our administration from weighing in on the crisis in Iran.
4
Is it possible to build some desalination plants near the coast and then pump water to other parts of Iran? I realize maybe I live in fantasy world.
I’m guessing that people living under a corrupt, tyrannical regime don’t give much thought to climate change.
1
With Scott Pruitt in charge of the EPA we are heading in the same direction here.
9
Oddly, Friedman does not mention similar climate change dynamics which sowed the seeds of the Syrian civil conflict.
The dinosaurs may have been eradicated in a matter of hours by a cosmic event , but our world is being impacted by climate change on a slow but sure path. Unfortunately not every species of dinosaur was killed off by that ancient asteroid. The Trumposaurus (who would do be) Rex and his pea brained fossil fuel backers are willfully ignoring the existential threat of climate change . Eventually, when the current crop of dinosaurs ruling the Earth wake up to reality we may well be on our way to an asteroid moment.
3
Is it possible that global warming, allowing the atmosphere to hold more water, presumably increasing precipitation, could alleviate water shortages? Where is the science on this? Granted, the water might not fall in the needed areas. The big picture is what the world needs to be looking at. Instead we retreat into tribalism which results in conflict. Our future will rely on moving people to where the resources are. Time to get busy.
1
A useful observation that I’ve heard made before: those in a position of power are frequently paid well, by those who benefit, not to understand the problem.
4
The trajectory for further devastation of our environment and drought will be anything but linear. Don't blame this to this or the other, it is us all together the whole Homo-sapiens stock. "Me myself and I". It is embedded in our DNA, but also in all life forms on this plant. These are also the building blocks of life and from that perspective it looks like it like only continuous experimenting, like a lab guinea-pig: begin, check and destroy again.
1
trump is more likely to tweet that the Iranians want their government to do everything for them, echoing the Republican philosophy of personal responsibility as they steal their wealth (financial, water, land, etc.) behind their backs. Classic.
Isn't trump and his anti-environment ilk doing the same in our country? Ripping us off of our natural environment and resources? Is there any doubt his golf courses would always have water rights preference over water for crops and people.
Clean water will be the new oil business of the near future, with private interests corralling as much clean water sources as they can while increasing scarcity to increase cost. The wealthy, like trump, will flout their wealth with wasteful water fountains and large pools.
6
First off -- Trump would have blurred his message by invoking Climate Change. Why let the Iranian leaders off the hook at all for their misdeeds by invoking something that is for the most part isn't in Iran's control?
Second -- from an intellectual standpoint, the attempt to link every negative event to rising temps and then back to Trump in some way is very soft and squishy. A lot of Iran is desert. The population has exploded over the last 60 years by around 4x. This plus poor water mgmt practices and greed probably account for 99% of the problems in Iran, maybe 1% by a theoretically warming planet.
4
Theoretically warming planet?
I thought that the current denialist line had shifted to "Yup, it's warming but it's not our fault."
Just trying to keep up here.
I know alarmists can be a little slow, but we have really very little evidence that the globe is warming. Despite the claims of the warming community, we do not have a solid temp record since 1880. Most of the globe at that time had few if any temp stations, they were mostly placed in coastal cities, they weren't put in place as part of a network designed to track the globes avg temp, and measurement methods were not standardized. It wasn't until the 1950's or later until much of the globe even had temp stations (the US and Europe account for roughly 2/3's or all current weather stations per Berkeley earth. So most of the globe still has very poor coverage.
The temp record is, for most of the globe, based on limited data, instead it is comprised primarily of estimates and extrapolations. So if that's good enough "science" for you, then fine. The globe is warming. Eight zillion climate scientists and Elvis fans couldn't be wrong. I, however, like my data based on actual measurements collected through random sampling using standard measurement procedures.
1
Trump offers America old solutions that failed to solve last century’s problems. Meanwhile, Europe and China are literally building a new future addressing this century’s challenges
7
The next round of major world wars won't likely be fought over ideology but over water. Is there a way out? Yes. It is called science. We must fully embrace science and the scientific method if we are to survive as a species. The politics that embraces and rewards stupidity, as some kind of virtue for short-term gain over long-term survival, must swept away.
21
Obama’s Iran deal was spot on. It bought us ten years; ten years for the young to rise up and take over. This article about drought and water mismanagement supports Obama’s foresight.
5
This really puts the recent events in Iran into a necessary perspective. But the lesson of this story has global implications which demand both serious consideration and determined action from people everywhere. Iran may a corrupt theocracy which rewards its cronies in the Revolutionary Guard with a licence to despoil the environment for their financial gain. But a similar arrangement is going on in America where the likes of Scott Pruitt and Ryan Zinke are ignoring climate and environmental science to reward their corporate patrons. The weather extremes--the wildfires, droughts, and hurricanes--which are increasing around the globe need a global solution which recognizes our interdependence.
140
"So, kids, if you want to understand the politics of the Middle East today, study Arabic and Farsi, Hebrew and Turkish — but most of all, study environmental science."
That study will also help you understand the politics of America tomorrow, especially the American West, as the water shortages Friedman notes catch up with the over-extended cities and farms there.
4
Why is all this such a surprise to NYT readers, columnists and reporters?
It's as if suddenly "understanding," "truth," "actual reasons," miraculously sprang forth.
What has our CIA and media (NYT included) been doing these past several decades? Is it only after news has hit us and others with body blows that we move beyond optics like "how long are that cleric's beards," and actually focus on the signal trends and developments driving change?
The failures in our intelligence and media communities are profound. And they show up, repeatedly, in some of the most important places/events on our planet. Sad for all of us.
2
Everything is driven by the population explosion.
At 7.5 billion, increasing by 80 million (pop. of Germany) annually.
We have exceeded the carrying capacity of this planet.
Secondary and tertiary affects:
Greenhouse gas production. Climate change. Rising sea level, temperature, acidification. Every large body of ice melting. Resource depletion (aquifers, glaciers, arable land, etc), pollution, loss of habitat. Increasing frequency and size of mass migrations. Changing weather patterns (meandering polar vortex, frequency and severity of storms)
This article focuses on one place - Iran. Last week another focused on Bangledesh. One month ago it was Great Salt Lake. It is all over the place.
The human species is not going to do anything about its runaway growth. Few will even see or discuss the matter. Nature will (already has) started to kick into action.
It no longer matters what any person or group believes or what actions if any real action it may plan to take. To borrow a term from nuclear power, population growth has gone "prompt critical".
103
Outstanding post! In the '70s, talk about the population explosion was commonplace, and the ever-increasing number of people on the planet was acknowledged as an extreme danger to the survival of life on earth. Now....overpopulation is the third rail, even though ALL other problems today stem from it, as you point out. Articles in National Geographic over the past couple years have treated it as inevitable that the global population will more than double by the end of the century, and have turned to the question of feeding those masses. The question shouldn't be supporting that many people; the question should be, how can we avoid such an increase? If we don't address that issue---soon---climate change, food production, fuel sources, and all the other top concerns today will become moot.
3
I agree that the fundamental problem in the long term is too many people on planet Earth. But this variable rarely gets into the discussions. Perhaps Homo sapiens sapiens will go the path of the lemmings. It's not a pretty picture.
3
I hear you, and I tend to believe you, but just to share: I read an article years ago in a science magazine, written by a specialist of some sort, that claimed that all the people on earth could live comfortably in Canada. We could grow enough food, and if we used our resources wisely, we could all live comfortably as Canadians. That's what he said. Beats me. All I know is what I read, where there are usually two radically opposing views, both swearing that they are right and the other guy is wrong. What's a layman to do? Research it till you're totally confused? Go with the last guy you talked to? It works for 45. Kind of.
1
And, we need to fix our own abuse of water resources. Here in the Southwest I worry about the declining levels of the Ogallala Aquifer. Is my house going to wind up gone in a new dust bowl? Excellent well researched article. Had no idea of the environmental problems in Iran.
5
These aquifers collapse when they dry out, and once that happens they'll need to be fracked to hold water again.
Now THAT'S journalism! Thank you Mr. Friedman for this excellent reporting.
3
This is the start of the water wars.
It's the worst timing imaginable for a Trump Presidency.
2
This editorial is about man-made drought; just add rising coastal seas to the mix and the picture becomes much bleaker. We really don’t get how bad this is going to get. We are the moth to the flame.
6
I recall Bernie Sanders stating that climate change was one of the leading causes behind the uprising in Syria. I also recall the dopey Peggy Noonan, on Face the Nation, stating that Senator Sanders sounded a "little daffy."
Republicans are "daffy." They refuse to accept the fact that climate change is here and it will effect all of us. And Trump just slapped tariffs on solar panels.
4
Considering who is running the EPA in the USA don't be surprised to see similar actions in this country. It already started with leasing oil contracts off the coast of many States. Won't be too long before we have a Deep Water Horizon off the coast of Florida-and that state is not off the list yet. Good bye Miami Beaches
2
We know that corruption is bad, endemic in many developing nations, and ultimately productive of political unrest and violence. In this age of communications revolution, can't scholars and journalists be mobilized and peacefully weaponized to spotlight corruption as an antidote, evoking unrest earlier and leading to progressive and regime change in those cultures? Just asking.
6
How can you do that when half the population believes that facts are
lies and lies are truth? Over half of Republicans believe that college is bad
for our society. So what experts will you get?
First, support every assertion with evidence.
Second, I meant the audience for these reports to be the indigenous peoples, not US Republicans.
1
Again, I solute your efforts and acknowledge that science education is the key to peaceful coexistence in our era.....I remember learning that St. Francis was once a soldier involved in a battle over the water needed in his land, in his time....he chose to leave the weapons and wealth of his family, to fight with prayer (Canticle of the Sun), and with good works....your encouragement for those who will confront the hatred of our present authorities, is to learn, learn, learn and then to work for solutions together....check out the Crossroads Project and the other efforts of artists and scientists who bring these wetland issues to us with visual and musical emphasis....like Friedman and Francis.....then and now.
1
As usual, Mr. Friedman throws in a bunch of facts, ignores others - often the most critical ones - and then he comes up with conclusions that are nicely aligned with his own politics. Thus, when reading Mr. Friedman's article, it should be a foregone conclusion that whatever happens in ME has something to do with the incompetence and corruption of either Bashar Assad of Syria or the nasty mullahs in Tehran.
For example, he conveniently ignores the fact that for centuries the main source of water for many Syrian farmers has been the Sea of Galilee, which is located on Golan Heights. And after annexation of Golan heights by Israel, the water there is primarily directed toward farms in Israel and not those in Syria.
Also another conveniently forgotten fact is that Iranian farmers, like many other farmers in ME, have been moving into cities - not just in the last decade - but in the last 40 - 50 years. Those who have studied Iran's Islamic Revolution of 1979 know that many analysts are with the view that the Islamist's success in Iran was in large attributable to farmers' migration to cities. The reason for farmers moving to large cities at the time, if I am not mistaken, was the unsuccessful land reform of the former King. Many farmers had lost their lands since they were not given the needed farming equipment. So, they ended up selling their lands and moved into cities.
1
Syria used to control the small strip of land between the Sea of Galilee and the Golan Heights. That area could, and does, use the lake's water for agriculture. Did Syria ever install the pumps necessary to move water uphill from the lake to the Golan Heights, which towers thousands of feet above the lake. Israeli farmers now on the top of the Golan do not use lake water. There is sufficient rain and stream water for agriculture that does not require large amounts of water.
Get your facts straight before bashing Israel.
Iran and the rest of the Middle East is the canary in the coalmine of climate change. We, too, are experiencing drought and extreme weather conditions while our own plutocrats grab all they can while they can. We are seeing tent cities across America, which should tell us plenty about how our own resources are being "managed". The level of homelessness is growing, and with it the desperation. The election of Trump was a signal that we need to change the way we address both our economy and our environment. What we needed was someone who would be a wise steward of both. What we got was a cross between Attila the Hun and Caligula.
6
Homelessness in America grew last year for the fist time since 2010. To about 550,000, or less than 1/6th of 1% of the US population. (I do not disagree that even one is more than we want). The majority of those have shelter, just not homes. (193,000 shelterless). The main cause of that growth was the economic explosion in California causing house prices to rise out of reach for the working poor, but California is attempting to address that. The causes of homelessness are many and diverse, from cost to mental health to just plain orneriness, (I have met some who just don't want to play be the rules)
1
I don't for a second believe either Trump or his supporters have the intellectual curiosity to research and understand complex problems and construct anything other than solutions that can fit on a red hat. We are more likely to find world leadership on climate change coming from China than Washington.
5
I hadn't considered the Iranian theocracy before in terms of its damage to the environment, so thank you, Mr. Friedman, for a thoughtful piece. Interesting how the most "pious" among us seem to have the least respect for the environment God gave us, whether they be radical islamists in Iran or evangelicals blindly supporting Trump and Pruitt's destructive environmental policies here in the U.S.
5
God will provide. The coming apocalypse will reset the world and restore paradise. It is all according to God's plan. Who are we to question the will of God. Abrahamic religions are based on a poor understanding, even by the terms of the bronze age, of the world. Today when we hear someone was listening to God's voice we lock them up or heavily medicate them.
Meanwhile back home aquifers are beset by overconsumption.
In Florida saltwater intrusion marches inland rendering coastal water supplies non-potable, this exacerbated by all the canals dug inland from the sea so rich guys can park their yachts in their backyards and Miami's rising sea level pushes the saltwater barrier line west of Coral Gables and canals draining the east Everglades dump water out to sea. In New Mexico the water supply dates back to rainfall when dinosaurs roamed. In oil rich states aquifers are polluted by drilling fluids. Then there's California where aquifers are down by hundreds of feet.
"Fa lal la la la" say the Republicans, "Let them drink cake."
8
I recall that when ISIS was terrorizing all over the Middle East, a few voices spoke out about one of the reasons for the group's rise: the negative effects of climate change. Entire portions of the region were enduring record high temperatures and scarce rainfall, all but destroying crops and leaving thousands of people without even meager income.
Of course, most climate change deniers laughed when they heard this explanation. People don't get that angry over hot weather!
Yes they do.
96
"Of course, most climate change deniers laughed when they heard this explanation. People don't get that angry over hot weather!"
I don't know if it's still happening, but in the late 80s through the 90s the Chinese were worried about factory production in facilities without A/C. To the point that the national weather services began to lie about the temperatures in their weather forecasts. When that begins to happen here, and with the current regime it will, we're either going to see a mass migration north, or major political dissatisfaction. particularly when the rubes find out they've been lied to.
Trouble in Syria rose from drought driven farmers who received no aid from Assad. It lasted two years. An Arab Spring which was avoidable had Assad taken appropriate measures.
They get even more enraged at the crying of hungry children.
So, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recognized that people were suffering and took steps to alleviate that suffering. You could say he was "buying" the support of those people. Or you could look at it from the perspective of doing what's right.
Market forces are not going to solve problems caused by extreme weather, which is related to climate change. They will drive people to migrate to places where it seems that there is relief from their problems. Corruption just makes the solutions more difficult to find.
It's not only that Donald Trump can't acknowledge the real problem here. The whole conservative philosophy is powerless the address the issues that cause the problem.
It seems ironic that the discontent here in the US is typically treated differently from that in places like Iran.
1
No, Mr. Friedman, it's not just environmental science that needs to be understood to appreciate the problems in Iran: It is U.S. foreign policy:
Iran was getting along quite nicely, than you, during Khatemi's tenure from 1997 - 2005. There was no drought, the economy was humming along at 6 % annual growth, the Tehran Stock Exchange rose faster than any other (500 % in 5 years in Dollar terms), increasing social freedoms were reflected in the press and films mocking the mullahs and exposing poverty and, not least, there were 100 multinationals and banks operating in Iran. This all ended abruptly when the U.S. attempted 'regime change' and imposed crippling sanctions before the end of Khatemi's final term.
The nation's leader saw no alternative than to adopt a siege mentality and appoint Ahmadinejad to the presidency, and the rest is history. Those sanctions, especially sanctions on foreign banks, are still in place today despite the election and re-election of a popular reformist president.
Mr. Friedman, you mention the key effect of drought. Well, it would help if you would terminate the sanctions on companies like Deere and Company whose urgently needed circular irrigation systems would preserve water and boost the economy. But helping ordinary Iranians was never the aim, was it?
1
Wow, what a great column. It makes me think about our current tyrant-in-chief and the chance for him to tear down the legislature and courts. If that was to happen, and he did not leave power, then we could see an Iranian situation. When Republican legislators locked Trump from discussions over the budget impasse, it provided me more hope that Trump is fringe and not a despot.
1
People who live in glass houses... we in the US have been damaging, shrinking and polluting our great aquifers for decades:
"...Sarah Landale, the director of planning for Suffolk County and the author of the project, said this is a "historic moment" for water quality on Long Island. The "long-awaited study of surface and ground water documents an 80 percent increase of nitrate concentrations in the aquifer below Long Island since 1987," CBS reported. The source of Long Island's drinking water makes the issue urgent. "Long Island is an EPA-designated sole source aquifer, which means that all county residents receive their drinking water from the groundwater under their feet," according to the Grace Communications Foundation, a public health and environmental advocacy group."
and:
"..According to a report by the United States Geological Survey in 2009, 90 percent of samples taken from shallow groundwater in Nebraska portions of the Ogallala aquifer (which waters the High Plains states, from South Dakota to Texas -L.) contained nitrate from fertilizers."
2
Hands up everyone who is just sick and tired of how the current presidential incumbent manages to invade every area of, well, everything. I am so sick of him and so repulsed by him but somehow he manages to dominate everything and that attracts my attention. The thought of 3 to 7 more years of this is hard to comprehend. Perhaps the correct response is to lose interest in politics, but that gives him a free hand. The alternative is to observe and have an informed opinion but that comes at a cost. He is so extreme in everything that he does and the way that he does it, that he forces me to have an opinion. I don't like that, it is so unsettling.
2
Perhaps our species name should be changed from Homo Sapiens ("Thinking Man") to Homo Rapeins ("Defiling Man") to designate how the political and economical elites are destroying our environment to pursue ever increasing profits.
Whether it is building dams in Iran or opening up former National Parkland to uranium mining, the goal of making more money remains the fundamental motive.
The net effect of climate change caused droughts plus self centered political and economic decisions is to "soak" the poor and the rest of the us into an ever more desperate future.
1
Who put those elites in power? I have heard it said, "people get the kind of government they deserve." I do believe there is currently a great awakening in this country about the meaning of voting and the power of the people. I only hope it is in time to save us, as it appears we are in for "interesting times"
1
"The Iran story is repeating itself across the Middle East — environmental stresses mixing with resentment over corruption and misgovernance, sparking uprisings. And it is only going to get worse."
Correct- but that is the Muslim Middle East. Misgovernment and corruption is everyplace, but some countries, or one country, has an independent vibrant judicial system and sends leaders to prison when they deserve it. (Ironically, under Israeli law, Mr. Trump would already be a felon).
"So, kids, if you want to understand the politics of the Middle East today, study Arabic and Farsi, Hebrew and Turkish — but most of all, study environmental science."
You exaggerate Mr. Friedman, as you are wont to do. Problems galore here, but there are dozens of more pressing ones, even in Iran, in spite of your harping on the issue.
1
Those who would like the primer please read Cadillac Desert. It tells the story of the over building of dams across the great southwest of the good ole USA. And the closing line is correct, eschew the Bible for the science book. One is a fairy tale, the other is useful information.
1
Colorado River frequently does not reach the Gulf of California.
1
Your negative obsession with President Trump, Mr. Friedman, is mind boggling. Now you are trying to throw mud on the President by somehow connecting his climate policies to the water problems in the Middle-East. Leaving that aside you are right, water is the biggest problem in the Middle East today. Every one who follows Middle East affairs knows that water is a major problem and to such extent that if the situation will not change it may bring not only more economic problems and suffering in the region but wars as well (between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan as one example). These disasters, that are almost certain to occur, can be solved if regions leaders, especially the Iranians, will stop their crazy campaigns against Israel, which managed to avoid such problems through desalination projects and other technology means. At the time of the Shah, in fact, Israel and Iran started to tackle this problem through cooperation in desalination projects along the Persian Gulf. President Trumps attitude toward the climate does not interfere with the ability to solve the water problems in the Middle-East and there is still time to do it if only the Iranians and others in the region will understand that Israel is the solution.
3
Trump couldn't write a tweet like the one in Friedman's third paragraph. It shows thoughtfulness, an understanding of situation, and demonstration for concern for an Iranian reality.
Not traits that he has demonstrated in his tweets...
Mr. Friedman,
Once more we concur with your description and future educational prediction (It is very rate that we share the same point of view).
Reading your article reminds us of statement made by George Orwell “ Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship.”
The 1979 Revolution clearly has morphed into a sustained power grab for the sole purpose of controlling the great resources of a proud nation. Unfortunately, the fanatical mullahs who mercilessly abuse their power, fail to study history. Jimmy Reid once wrote “Dictators can fix up their entire families in good jobs, in or around government, and often do. In democracies, such a practice is frowned upon. Privileged access to the corridors of power through family connections and a kind of old boys' network, is also deemed an abuse of power, and so it is.” Dictators always meet a bad ending especially in the Middle East.
It is our hope that the New Iranian Revolution (NIR) will grow and mature.
We encourage all the brave souls of the NIR to come together and dispose of the ideological tyrants who are destroying a proud nation.
1
Your logic applies equally to crises all over this world caused or worsened by bad governance. When there is bad policy and worse implementation thereof, corruption, conflicts of interest that deprive the citizenry of basic services (water, food, housing, healthcare) there will be revolt.
Iran is no different from the rest of the world in the mismanagement of water and natural resources. The US, Australia, India, and Africa are dealing with drought, the depletion of water resources, and exploitation oil and “big farma”. We face the same problems at home with farmland made unusable by salt accumulation, water depletion for fracking, and now mining and oil well drilling in protected lands. Farmers are given subsidies but not enough to stop the closure of small farms. There will be food shortages here when more farmland goes fallow and the drought continues. Iran is not alone with greedy big business and government.
113
Israel is one of the few nations that is leading the world in water conservation. Although most of Israel is subject to drought, Israel has a water surplus, through many large and small measures taken over years.
Israel is willing to, and does share its knowledge with the rest of the world, but the places that need it the most are mostly Muslim (so are not willing to "normalize" relations with Israel. The United States could also greatly increase its water conservation practices, but that will temporarily cut back on big business's profits (and thus our politicians will get less monetary support), so combined with climate change denial, we will follow Iran's example instead.
36
Trump's policies are taking us down the same road. Cronyism and corruption along with climate change denial appear to be the new governmental underpinnings.
3
I was going to write something similar myself, Barbarra, until I saw your post. Just wait till the Ogalala aquifer goes dry in America's heartland, then Friedman can write a similar story about us.
But his point, I believe, was about Climate Change and its effect on world politics. We can begin to change all that with Small Modular Reactors (SMR) that can be fueled by spent nuclear fuel, the waste from today's nuclear power plants.
Fleets of SMRs like the GE-Hitachi PRISM Reactor, could provide all the emission-free electricity we will ever need, and start eliminating the nuclear waste that exists at each and every nuclear power plant in the U.S. PRISM is the ultimate waste-to-energy Climate Change solution.
You don't have to believe me; just look at what Canada is planning to do in Ontario----- 37% C02 reduction in 20 years, and 80% by 2050. If every country were to do something like this, we could slow, or perhaps even halt Climate Change in 30 years. Think about it.
2
Mother nature needs to be respected. Our present government appears to be doing the same thing to our resources as has been done in Iran.
The Trump administration believes in profits over the environment and use of land for mining and drilling no matter the consequences. And just as in Iran where the powerful profited the friends of Trump will profit.
The article also tells me why Iran wants nuclear power. It needs to replace the hydro dams. Our strategy toward them should change to help them get the power they need through renewables and clean natural gas.
13
When a region is drought-stricken, should it use the water flowing off its mountains while that is fresh water, or should it let that water flow into a brackish lake and be lost?
I'm sure the brackish lake has its virtues, but fresh water for humans has virtues too. It is a trade off, cost-benefit, not just an environmental one-way answer.
6
Mark, you are both right and wrong. Humans need fresh, not brackish water. But brackish water may fill aquifers, leading to future fresh water for farmers and humans!
Without the aquifers, we have to find fresh water from somewhere - but if we take the brackish water now, our children won't have it later!
So do we rob our children for our needs?
Perhaps it's time to stop pretending that our short term needs don't have negative consequences.
Aside from being an excellent commentary, it is also great reporting. Many thanks for shedding light on a mostly underreported story.
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Thanks, Dr. Friedman. This is why I come to the NYT and not Breitbart. (One of many reasons)
To bring it home - I'm a happy resident of the Great Lakes Watershed, and very optimistic about our future. It almost certainly won't come in my lifetime, but someday, the migration from the "rust belt" to the sere belt will reverse. There's an abundance of inexpensive real estate in Detroit, Toledo, ... for anybody young and foresightful.
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It's not just a situation of less water, although that is true. It's also a matter of population increase. I;'s simply not the case that Malthus was altogether wrong; it remains important to bear in mind that he was partly right.
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Every major religion advocates for unsustainable population explosion; another reason why religion is the root of all evil.
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Mistakes in water management frequently occur in the early stages of drought in semi-arid countries with growing populations. Typically, the mistakes reflect a lack of technical expertise to make the right decisions.
Iran possesses and has always had the expertise to manage its water prudently. The problem in Iran is that, in addition to the corruption of the clerical leaders and the Revolutionary Guards who have meddled with the water resources, the government found itself in the need of a quick fix.
International sanctions, imposed upon Iran for a variety of reasons, had made a hectic search for alternative energy sources necessary. Haste makes waste. Poorly planned hydroelectric projects made matters worse.
The plight of the farmers led to much higher food prices in one of the few countries in the Middle East with the traditional ability to feed itself.
Now, many farmers have given up, and a population shift is happening. The demonstrations will get worse, more lives will be lost, and the turmoil will spread outside Iran’s borders.
23
If it can happen in Iran then it can happen anywhere of it's environmental issues with their water and health and workplace conditions among it's citizens. Never knew this before and appreciate this Op Ed by Thomas L. Friedman. Are they in the Paris Accord? Seems like this goes hand in hand with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. If not it should be. Couldn't the United States have with the Middle East like they do with the European Union a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP)?
12
Yes Iran, like ALL other countries in the world APART the USA, had signed in the Paris Accord.But the politicians seem to have grossly underestimated the radical effects and speed of the climate changes; sadly we will all have to suffer their conduct.
Iran is the world's seventh largest emitter of greenhouse gases, emitting more than Canada and a little less than Germany. They bear their share of the blame for rising temperatures.
It is also a corrupt and evil regime that sponsors terrorism against the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions
9
Schrodinger: The US has emitted far far more CO2 than has Iran -- by a factor of about 28 since 1850, through 2014. (http://cait.wri.org/)
So we have no right whatsoever to preach to the Iranians.
1
is iran any more corrupt regime than the tRump regime in the US? who ws the first sponsor of the overthrow of the elected mossadegh govt if iran! lets not throw stones.
talk about water rights in california! how they were ‘sold’ to influential ‘farmers’ over a hundred years ago. US is as corrupt as any regime in the world, we just ‘legitimize’ it on paper by convoluted machinations to trick ourselves into thinking we are ‘exceptional’.
1
Something on the order of one billion people get their drinking water form snow melt. Where is climate change most evident? At high altitudes. Where do we find glaciers? In mountainous regions.
Glaciers are in rapid retreat all over the planet. What is happening in Iran will be happening all over the world. Watersheds are drying up. The planet is getting hotter. As luck would have it, the arid regions are heating up faster than Margo Largo or whatever that place is called Trump lives in.
The Sahara is expanding and pushing south. South Central Asia is burning up. Stick around another 20 years. If you think the region has refugee crises now, just wait for the encore migration.
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Excellent analysis of some of the causal events fueling Iranian discontent. But, unlike a couple of years ago, it probably wouldn’t have gotten the clicks it will because Trump’s tweets wouldn’t have been in the headline.
“Trump’s tweets cause consternation as bees are on the decline for known and unknown reasons.”
Whatever will journalism do when Trump finally goes fishin’?
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"Whatever will journalism do when Trump finally goes fishin’?"
Breath a sigh of relief. It's not easy being an enemy of the people.
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mancuroc:
Trust me: print-journalism at least will NOT breathe a sigh of relief once Trump leaves the arena. It may not even survive.
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Richard must be keeping a running count of the number of times this paper's op/ed writers bring all of their negative comments and critiques back to The Donald. And yet, what should they be doing? The Times is an American publication, after all, and its readers- the majority of whom are, after all, American- need to understand how it is that what's been going on elsewhere in the world relates to what's been going on here. Personally, I can't understand why our great white father in Washington has such enmity for Iran's leaders. They're no threat to us (nor even to a nuclear-armed Israel), and their authoritarian impulses at home dovetail neatly with Trump's own predilections. Perhaps he just can't bear the idea of great-looking Iranian femmes being compelled to wear those form-concealing chadors.
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The current U.S. Administration's blindness to, and unwillingness to prepare the country for, major economic changes of tomorrow -- water, climate change, renewable energy, displacement due to automation -- may turn out to be its greatest folly. And that's saying something.
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calling it an ‘administration’ is a disservice.
1
The climate change deniers will have their reckoning sooner than later. Cape Town SA, population 4 million, has basically run out of water with no backup plan. Civil unrest will only heighten as this precious resource continues to dwindle especially in the Middle East & North Africa. Don’t worry, multi national corporation have already begun buying large fresh water reserves in Canada & the US. It’s only a matter of time before it replaces fossil fuels as the most profitable commodity on the planet.
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And yet the Times recently ran a lifestyle column celebrating the virtues of taking two showers a day. Which almost nobody who doesn't wade through raw sewage needs to do.
And on an canary-in-the coalmine article on the "raw" water luxury fad, the mocking commenters (a) had nothing to say about the principles of home water collection a portion of the story dealt with, and (b) didn't know the difference between a spring (part of the aquifer system) and a stream (part of the flowing water system that also provides habitats for aquatic flora and fauna), while feeling qualified to pronounce on the subject of the water supply.
You are right. The relentless privatization of water supplies will have us all on our knees before the corporations are done with us. Think Coca Cola and its bottled water sales and all the others, too. And the local water companies in the cities and suburbs are mostly private, too. And when water becomes scarcer, people who can afford it dig their own wells and deplete the aquifers. Share and share alike is not the motto these days. Me and mine first. Just ask our president.
At the end of the Academy Award wining movie "The Big Short", about the handful of investors who saw the catastrophic consequences of the housing bubble using high level algorithms as well as common sense, they updated the audience on what these wunderkinds were doing now, financially speaking. The movie centered around one courageous and unlikely hero who stuck to his guns under extreme pressure from his bosses and clients alike. The part was played by Christian Bales with the appropriate amount of quirks and laser like focus. I don't remember the real life character's name but what I do remember was that he was putting all his money and all that focus into water futures. I'm just saying.
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Rick. So true. This was covered in a prescient book BLUE GOLD by Maude Barlow and Tony Clark in 2002, about the coming water wars.
1
The alchemists of old would be amazed for we are turning water into gold.
1
The movie also had a fictional ending: the bad guys were arrested and jailed. Nope - they weren't. They're still making money, with male testosterone rewarded over compassion.
2
Great writing---these are the real costs of subsidized fossil fuel pollution in the CO2-packed troposphere--and no timely sanity in sight!!
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And overpopulation -- subtract and the rest doesn't happen or not in the way it is.
When I lived in Tehran in 1977 through 1979, the only rice I could buy at the local grocer was Uncle Ben's in five grades, chaff through polished white rice. The USA in collaboration with the Shah had destroyed Iranian agriculture, replacing it with industrial and military investment. The current response over the last forty years to regain food independence from the West is a correct but misguided response to imperialism.
18
Michael,
I also lived in Tehran during those years and the availability of locally produced fresh veggies and fruits at our local bazaar was nothing short of abundant. And the rice I bought was not Uncle Ben’s.
1
what! ‘ correct but misguided’??
iran imports a lot of real food from ‘neighbors’ - Pakistan and India. Especially rice. The damage mr tRump is inflicting under cover of his tweets will make america recoil indeed.
Tom,
The roots of the Iran protests that your gift has so beautifully described is a harbinger of the world's future if we don't get a grip on the induced climate change from fossil fuel combustion.
I strongly believe that we can meet the challenge of adapting the human habitat and achieve a better standard of living by investing in technologies that will create an abundance of cheap electricity from space-based solar power to beam energy to antennae fields on Earth for grid distribution. Dr. James Powell, retired Brookhaven National Lab scientist, describes a doable, affordable, practical path to a more livable future in his book, "Silent Earth". He describes how superconducting Maglev technology can be used to electrically launch satellites to orbit for less than 1% of a chemical rocket launch. With this system we could build solar parasols unfolded in geosynchronous orbit to meet the energy needs projected for a world population of 9-10 Billion by the 21st Century. The investment costs to create the system is only 1 Trillion a year for about 20 years. This is a bargain compared to current World GDP of about 75 Trillion.
With cheap electricity (about 2 cents per kwhr), we can power logistics transport, make all the desalinated water the world will need, power industry and homes, and make synthetic jet/diesel fuel from air and water.
These are known technologies and we should mobilize now to avoid the catastrophic consequences that you described in your writing.
39
Instead, with Trump's favoring of fossil fuels over renewable energy, we're moving back to the technologies of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Madness.
8
Ah, but the great, wise men of the Trump administration are getting rid of the scientists who work for the government so they won't be there to tell us what is happening. They have scrubbed government websites clean of references to climate change to promote the idea that all is well. It is downright scary to think of the expertise in all fields we are losing because the Trumpistas have arrived to plunder the country like the Vandals did Rome.
Iran could be a lesson if they would heed it. When people have nothing, they have nothing to lose. When you are choosing between death now and death later, there are many who will risk death today if it gives them hope of survival rather than passively succumbing to death from privation tomorrow.
The refugee crisis has only started. There will be no holding back the tide.
Plutocrats, take note: All the walls in the world will not hold back the sea of desperate people fleeing environmental disaster. You have caused this. May you inherit the storm.
158
Ha! Trump still believes in coal.
5
On more Trump missed opportunities, I note that the new TPP is due to be signed in 6 weeks, without the US. It's going to be called the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), or TPP-11. It will eliminate 98% of tariffs across economies with a combined GDP of almost $14 trillion, versus the US GDP of $19 trillion.
Trump claims that the US is being respected again internationally, while demonstrably reducing the US's influence.
Sad.
106
It's encouraging that Trump could not sabotage the TPP.
15
Agreed but from my Australian perspective I would rather have the US in than out. Never the less, and with all due respect, if the US under the current administration doesn't want to be a part of it then we will carry on without you. Note that the new agreement allows countries not currently in to join at a later date. Trump wont be there forever.
6
To be fair, Hillary also declared her opposition to the TPP.
1
Tom Friedman well understands that as long as fossil fuels remain artificially "cheap," their increasing use is inevitable, exacerbating all climate disasters. Until their true social costs are reflected in their prices, no market can make rational decisions regarding energy supply. That's why the world desperately needs global carbon pricing that promotes a smooth transition away from fossil fuels. It can start here with a revenue neutral carbon fee, refunded to citizens, and a border carbon tariff as advocated by the Citizens' Climate Lobby. Harness the global economy to the task of saving humanity. What other force can do that?
193
My, what a rational proposal. Unfortunately, that's not how we roll on the US.
1