It's my guess the U.S. is currently increasing their cruise missile inventory in preparation of a massive attack- probably late January.
1
Thank God and North Korean rocket engineers - now North Korea is protected and there won't be a war in Korean peninsula. I only wish that Qaddafi and Saddam also had nuclear weapons and those unnecessary wars we're also avoided.
1
You can’t help but think about hidden hands accelerating the DPK program.
I’m just trying to imagine what the residents of Troy must have been thinking as they watched the horse from afar being put together as I read this story. Like hardly any distance between then and now, it’s quite existential.
The Hwasong-15 is not designed or intended to be a regional threat, but a direct challenge to the security of the United States. and its European partners. It is past time the problem is dealt with before NK is accepted into the nuclear club. Is mutual nuclear deterrence acceptable to the United States? Past Presidents have said it is not acceptable, but did little to stop them.
Why worry? Trump has it covered. Covered by a nuclear shelter hundreds of feet below the Whit House whee he and his family can live in happiness for many years while the rest of us slobs die or struggle to live before we die. Good news for the last President of the US
1
DPRK probably obtained enough aramid fiber to make this missle light enough and thereby increase the range. The real question is how much materials like aramid have they obtained for another one
As rightly asked by many others here: Where is North Korea getting all this new technology, hardware, and know-how?? It's all too much to be home-grown from such a small and isolated country. All this technology is just too esoteric to not be traceable to a source. So where is it coming from? I bet I know the answer, but this is where some solid fact-based research and journalism could really bring some very bright daylight to the current murkiness.
3
Maybe now we should talk instead all this fire and brimstone! War will benefit no one. This tin-horn bully at the UN is a disgrace to the craft of diplomacy. China and Russia will not accept lightly a war of aggression by the US! Trump is trying to bait NK, but most of the world is wary to his tricks. The US' record against countries who have given up nukes provides enough motive for KIm to continue on his present course. We need to talk and stop the infantile posturing!
Undoubtedly, the over ambitious missile programme of NK has created an inquisitiveness in Pentagon to monitor and estimate the every inch of NK's capacity of the missile launched on Nov30'2017. When NK declared the successful testing of hydrogen bomb a year ago, it was considered a 'much ado about nothing' and there were few assertions that NK doesn't have the capability to produce and test H-bomb. When the alone super power of the world, the USA is unable to know the real capacity of the missile launched and the capability to produce and test the proclaimed H-bomb by North Korea, the very purpose of the UNSC becomes toothless or the handshaking of the UNSC members with their right hands is the ignorance of the dealings and stretching support to the wrong doings with their left hands .
1
Trying to figure out what was wrong with my earlier comment, I'll take another shot.
This is really not too worrisome. Yes, the missile is very big, you'd hate to have it fall over on your house. But there's no sign that the DPRK can actually hit the continental U.S., or that they have the aiming ability to hit Hawaii. And the major thing is, if the DPRK wanted to start a war, it has been able to do so for fifty years. They can simply launch an artillery barrage to destroy Seoul and its millions of people, anytime, without warning. They have no ability to invade the U.S. or do significant damage to us, yet.
The reason they won't is because starting a war with the U.S. would result in the destruction of the DPRK and the death of their Dear Leader, and all his kin. I'd bet it would be taken care of by China, because they'd hate to have the U.S. nuke North Korea, because they'd suffer tremendously from the radioactive fallout. China has the ability to destroy North Korea with conventional munitions and doesn't mind killing lots of people.
The big thing to worry about is that we have an ignorant, bombastic, racist, fascist in the White House who can launch a nuclear attack at any time. North Korea is really no threat at all; today, the threat of nuclear annihilation comes primarily from the U.S.A..
8
"He [Mr. Kim] said that if the missile’s first stage was in fact powered by two engines instead of one, it would dispel earlier speculation among some analysts that North Korea might have loaded a very light mock warhead on the Hwasong-15 so it could fly farther."
Why would two engines deny the possibility of a light demo warhead? If I were the "NK's Mr. Kim" that's what I would do to maximally shake up the rest of the world. His warheads must be very heavy; miniaturizing them à la Ted Taylor is a really difficult thing.
1
Accept North Korea as a nuclear state and normalize relations with them.
Their leadership will stop threatening to blow up the U.S. Let them have their nukes. We don't have a problem with other countries having theirs.
If we're not careful, we'll run into the same problem with Iran.
3
Please remind me which countries sell the North Koreans all the technology that enables them to do this.
2
Primarily, A.Q. Khan of Pakistan sold them the technology to create nuclear weapons. China has probably sold them the hardware, and very few other nations trade with the DPRK at all.
3
India have a very big part in helping N Korea. India was exposed late last year helping N Korea with satellite guidance technology. India have very little trade with N Korea. India need raw uranium and N Korea have plentiful in exchange for tech know how. It is very easy to give blueprints to N Korea via diplomatic pouches and do counter trade to avoid US detection. There is no way a small country with 25 million N Korean can progress so fast in last few months.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/06/india-embarrassing-nor...
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/16/india_nuclear_city_top_secret_china_...
What is truly scary is the pace North Korea is improving it's capability. At this rate, they'll have a man on the moon next month. And all this at a cost that should embarrass our defense contractors.
3
Not really, North Korea will never get a man on the moon, or even a woman. Don't believe the hype, their rocketry is not all that advanced and they have no spaceflight capability. Of course, the U.S. has no manned spaceflight capability either anymore, but other nations will surely reach the moon again, just not us or North Korea.
The average North Korea is starving and lives a poor extistance. The people living in Pyongyang do not feel the sting of sanctions. Mr Kim will press on with his nuclear weapons and will force the US into a deal. I believe that the US will pull out its troops from South Korea once these missiles are on the launch pad with New York as a target. This is his goal. The Seoul government`s big mistake was allowing itself to depend on the US for their security aganist the North for 70 years.
1
At this very moment (11:45am HST) I am in my office and for the first time I am hearing our monthly Civil Defense siren test that now includes the 'take cover' warning, notifying the public of a possible nuclear attack. Other than in movies and television, this is the first time I have ever heard that warning in my lifetime.
3
It’s time to back off. In fact you don’t wanna squeeze the regime too much.
Kim will sell those nuclear toys if he’s squeezed too much for cash.
It’s too late for any preemptive nonsense
China can set up a cool coup de etas maybe. Something from the inside.
3
Remarkable insight into Nuclear DPRK. It appears a Nuclear War with North Korea would possibly trigger a Nuclear World War----at this point negotiations to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula is not going to happen. There is no doubt the DPRK would eventually be annihilated by the US Power, however, by virtue of recognizing the DPRK as a Nuclear State with the conditions they would cease being sponsors of terrorism would make more sense. Should they adhere to the agreement, the DPRK would then be taken into the International Community of commerce, and sanctions would be lifted. There is no other logical avenue in which to avoid a catastrophic Nuclear War.
3
The only logical process is to treat North Korea as a nuclear-armed state. Ether they have the capability now, or they will in the near future. So, the only way to deal with them is to assert the only course of action that has ever worked: planned deescalation of an arms race. The Kim regime clearly wants to sit at the "grown-ups' table." Okay, let us inform them that the only way to keep control is to reduce their weapons program and channel that capital into domestic infrastructure and economic development. If you want the world to take you seriously, you need industry, education, technology, agriculture, libraries, and diplomacy, not just warheads. I'm sure Jong-un knows that a war would be the end of his rule, as would a ruinously expensive arms race with the nuclear powers already ahead of him by 60 years. Capitalism has its discontents, but you can't beat it for building weapons. Now is the time for diplomacy and deal-making, not after the cannonballs fly.
1
"Okay, let us inform them that the only way to keep control is to reduce their weapons program and channel that capital into domestic infrastructure and economic development."
Yes, of course you are right. North Korea has a long and established history of listening to diplomatic initiatives from other countries, and then making sound and reasonable policy decisions as a result. Why hasn't someone thought of that before now?
4
So, the solution is?
I go back to the theory why do you think North Korea needs that nuke it is because they have seen what the US has done around the world with regards to regime changes. They have figured we need to get one to prevent the US from ever invading us.
4
And they're absolutely right to figure that. It's the only thing that stops the U.S. from invading, definitely and unconditionally.
10
The United States has never had an inclination to "invade" North Korea...we have a huge military investment in SK to deter NK from invading SK...which they did in 1950...
The prospective cost and casualties of a conventional conflict-especially as regards the people of Seoul-has been more than enough to deter the US (or anyone else) from launching offensive military action against NK, despite multiple provocations over many years that any reasonable person would consider acts of war. Deterring regime change may be part of Kim's thinking...but the irony is that further development of an intercontinental offensive nuclear capability will increase the probability of regime change....and what's lost here is that Kim will use these new toys to coerce, threaten, export terrorism and change the security calculus in this part of Asia...."accepting NK as part of the international community" as often repeated on these pages, is pure fantasy. It's a club they don't want to join...
3
What are you saying? We invaded NK up the Chinese border back during the Korean War. Only the Chinese crossing the Yalu River saved NK from defeat.
But the actual point to be made here is not a technical one. Our world today is filled ... most unfortunately, and most stupidly ... with "very fearsome missiles."
The one-and-only point is that, "for the moment, at least, these missiles are in the hands of rogue psychopaths."
The dictionary defines this term as: "a person suffering from chronic mental disorder with abnormal or violent social behavior." We also often say that such people do not have proper regard for the sanctity of human life. One would ordinarily take for granted that the bona-fide leaders of any country would be reluctant to throw their own countrymen into the maw of wholesale extermination. And yet, we now see it here – and, most ominously, we have also seen it in the same general geographic region once before: in WW2 Japan.
But today we have something that was created in response to that awful war: the notion of "United Nations." It was born from the realization that threats can originate from anywhere which pose a simultaneous threat to many nations. (Case at bar: "an ICBM can be pointed in any direction.") And, that too-nationalistic attempts to deal with it – such as Neville Chamberlain's perhaps-earnest attempts at appeasement, say – cannot succeed. Threats such as these, having obviously-global scope, must be dealt with both "decisively" and "globally."
These psychopaths, being a group of less than one hundred people, must be removed or neutralized: by the WORLD, and WITHOUT World War.
2
Do you mean the U.N. should help us get rid of Trump and the rest of the crazies now running our country? I’d go for that.
1
This is quintessential American triumphalist militarist thinking. The gist of it being that our behavior and our policies are never to blame, and every conflict can be solved through good ol' American military might, assassination, etc.
The USA needs to start putting this kind of thinking in the rear-view mirror, or one of these days we'll surely start a war to end all wars (i.e. WWIII).
And by the way: Did our leaders have regard for the "sanctity of human life" in Vietnam (3,000,000 killed) or in Iraq during W's War?
You suggest North Korea wants to sit at the table with the grown-ups. Indeed. When will we here, in the U.S., in this administration, start behaving like grown-ups? We're scorching our State Department, treating diplomacy as if it's a waste of time, and standing on a soapbox yelling diatribes at the North Korean leadership. Is this behaving like a world leader, much less like a grown-up player?
If we can, shoot the next one down. If we cannot, it's time for a crash program to give us that ability.
Um, thirty-five years of trying and one hundred billions dollars flushed down that hole already. Military-industrial complex boondoggle. Makes for great animation though.
6
I am still waiting for the promise from the world's liar-in-chief to see "the fire and fury that the world has never seen before". "Lian liar pants on fire". Sad!
2
So North Korea suddenly pulls a completely new ICBM out of their hat (with greatly increased payload capacity and previously untested gimbal steering system) and successfully tests it on the very first try? They're getting help, no question about it. Which begs two questions: 1) who is helping them, and 2) why?
Probable answer to question #1: Russia.
Probable answer to question #2: In a nuclear exchange between Russia and the U.S., both countries would be decimated. So Russia doesn't want that. But what about a nuclear exchange between North Korea and the U.S.? With a bit of last-minute assistance to boost their firepower, North Korea could do a lot of damage to the U.S. in a war. The end result would be tantmount to Russia defeating the U.S. in a nuclear war (what does Russia care who launches the nukes?). America would get nuked, but rather than retaliating against Russia, the U.S. would unleash their retaliation upon North Korea instead.
Don't believe Russian claims of condemnation against North Korea. They are working this. And the icing on the cake is that they've got Putin's puppet in the white house, who is dutifully ramping up the tensions.
27
Why do you automatically assume they are getting state help?.... There are plenty of ex-Soviet and Chinese nuclear scientists who will take a few million bucks in exchange for assistance..... North Korea also has plenty of missile and nuclear scientists of their own in a region that has a higher IQ than the west, so why assume they can't figure it out for themselves?... there is plenty of technological info all over the internet... STOP assuming they are helpless, unintelligent people.... They have just as much ability as the west to develop what they want.
5
Because of the high rate of missile development. The North Korean technology is advancing on a time scale measured in months, compared to the years it took the rest of the world to make similar progress. Not to mention, the components to build such missiles are supposed to be banned under sanctions.
1
A very good point Dave. Although many are saying things have accelerated considerably over NK's previous progress. If that's truley the case then something has changed. A few new bright minds in the NK nuclear program came of age and got to work?
The "double-freeze" proposed by Russia and China is a good place to start de-escalating tensions permanently in the Korean Peninsula.
However, the illusion should not be entertained that North Korea will abandon its nuclear capabilities. It would be foolhardy for it to do so considering recent history:
Libya renounced its nascent nuclear program in exchange for closer ties to the West and the Obama Administration (Clinton) had him assassinated. Iran suspended its program in exchange for better economic ties and will probably pay a fearsome price if Israel, Saudi Arabia and their neocon allies in Washington have their way.
7
I don't understand why, after successfully implementing the famed STUXNET virus that caused the Iranian centrifuges to spin undetected at higher speed and destruct, that today our vast defense agency could not devise a similar virus that would affect North Korea's national power grid, or that spy satellites are not tracking the whereabouts of the supreme leader?
The situation we have now demands really innovative solutions to disable North Korea.
1
You watch too many Hollywood movies.
4
Target schmarget. Does anybody really think Kim cares where in the U.S. his missile lands?
This is scary.
4
I had always thought that intelligence (both the cognitive kind and the military kind), cooler heads, diplomatic finesse, common sense, and good leadership would be enough to keep this kind of situation at bay because that’s the way it’s been since 1962 — it’s all I know, and all I have faith in. But now, I’m not at all sure. We have two impetuous, juvenile madmen on either side, with civilization caught in the middle
I’m growing less optimistic by the day that this is going to end well for any of us.
I'm thinking a cage fight. Trump vs. Jong-un. Let's just ship him over and let them have at it.
China, China, China.
When it comes to the DPRK the answer is always China.
3
I'm against any type of preemptive attack on North Korea. While we're all against nuclear proliferation, what moral high-ground do we possess that grants us the right to tell another country not to have nukes? Now that NK has nukes, and missiles, apparently, diplomacy is the best route to take. Continuing to punish NK for having nukes is not only sanctimonious, it won't work. But of course, Tillerson is dismantling the State Department as we speak and Trump doesn't even understand the concept of diplomacy. Gunboat diplomacy may be on the horizon. This is a lose-lose approach for America, because we have so much to lose, and NK, a poor, desperate country, has so little to lose.
3
Of course a lot of these developments happened before Trump was president; however, we warned about the dangers of electing a president that could be easily provoked into a nuclear war. Trump and Kim Jong-un both have narcissistic personalities, but when two narcissists meet, there's only room for one.
A smarter approach would be with both sticks and carrots, but our own rocket man is too proud for that.
How far will this game of chicken go? Wouldn't we have been better with a different sort of president handling this situation? Will any of us be here next year?
During the Cuban missile crisis it was simple airborne recon that showed the world the Soviet Union was responsible for the nuclear weapons in Cuba. In North Korea the smoking gun behind their rapid advances in ballistic missile technology have yet to be credibly identified. The usual suspects, Iran, Pakistan, Russia and even China have been rumored to have assisted in this process as has a rocket factory in the Ukraine. One thing is clear, all previous efforts by U.S. intelligence to finger these sources have been an absolute failure as has our intelligence failed to accurately forecast the speed which North Korea has successfully launched these improved missiles. What's so surprising and disturbing to me is not North Korea's missile advances but our country's failure to anticipate them and take the appropriate action before Kin Jong-un let his genie out of the bottle.
5
Its probably worth pointing out that while virtually all discussion is about a direct nuclear hit - a nuclear weapon provides a devastating non-lethal option in the form of electro-magnetic pulse.
At one extreme: A 9-megaton nuclear burst at 85-90-miles over, say, Tulsa would knock out all unhardened wiring within a 2500 mile range. Basically, every cellphone, computer, power line, reading lamp, stop light, landline, you name it, in the entire country would fry from the electro-magnetic pulse. Hardly anyone would notice the nuclear burst and no one would likely die - but the results would be global panic.
A one-megaton burst at the appropriate height over L.A. would have the same effect albeit with a much smaller range. This event and not a direct hit would be the more likely and more direct threat we are faced with.
9
You just described the best way to stop NK in its tracks and ready it for invasion. A non-lethal collateral damage south of the border would look acceptable in view of the alternatives.
Frankly, the worst part is, should North Korea ever attack, they’d target our biggest, important cities in order to wreak maximum damage; the people who vehemently oppose Donald Trump will bear the consequences in massively disproportionate numbers. In this political climate, with the irrational contempt and outright hatred conservatives harbor towards liberals—especially the ‘heathens,’ ‘criminals,’ ‘welfare queens,’ and ‘elites’ who populate our urban areas—I am 100%, absolutely, sincerely convinced that Trump’s base is much more willing (even happy) to take that risk.
2
Please don't forget that North Korea would target not only "urban liberal elites", but also Japan and South Korea, both of which are increasingly powerful academic and economic competitors of the USA . My fear is that Trump and his acolytes may see this as somewhat of a silver lining around the mushroom cloud.
Besides, they have shown repeatedly that they have a limitless tolerance for other people's suffering.
1
I have a better idea than attacking North Korea. My idea is for many countries in the world, acting individually (NOT the UN), to get together and arrange a compromise between South Korea, North Korea, China and the US, under which the two Koreas would gradually re-unify under capitalism, with a gradual, protected phase-out of the Communist Party. At some point, there would be a supervised withdrawal of US forces and a Guarantee by China to prevent an outbreak of war.
These outside countries are stakeholders. Whether they know it or not, they have a stake in preventing a new Korean war, because it would affect them. It's time for them to step up and take responsibility for their own future.
4
That'll work! Kim Jung-un is totally reasonable, as is our own glorious leader!
2
If US wants to stay on top of Korean Peninsula politics, Situation is demanding preemptive strike now.
But there is a huge risk, just remember big power and responsibility comes with big risk.
2
It demanded a preemptive strike in 1992.
2
After the tax cut, we will have little money for a new Korean War. John McCain should not ignore this fact.
And money sent to the Cayman Islands, or used to buy back stock shares, will do little to increase economic growth in the US economy.
3
The handwriting depicted in the signed document ordering the launch reflects that of a disciplined person. This is suggestive that whatever course Mr. Kim Jong-un has chosen has been carefully considered.
4
Now we can stop worrying about the NK crisis. They aren't crazy enough to start a war and after this we wouldn't be crazy enough to start one either.
I am still worried that USGOV might start a war with Iran, but what worries me most is Israel. They have long had an ICBM that could hit US and their government is crazy and continually getting crazier, to think they can survive indefinitely without some compromise with the Palestinians. On missile see
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jericho_(missile)
Why would Israel want an ICBM when their enemies are not that far away? Wikileaks quotes an Israeli professor as saying "We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force. Let me quote General Moshe Dayan: 'Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.' I consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the thirtieth strongest in the world, but rather the second or third. We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
3
Sorry, the quote is from Wikipedia not Wikileaks.
Shouldn't the world launch a surprise nuclear attack that destroys all the capabilities of this rogue nation? It will cause civilians life loss in North Korea, but the current course means civilians in South Korea and Japan will die in huge numbers for sure and a remote chance that US civilians will be casualty as well.
3
NK is very close to being able to launch a nuclear war head to the United States. This is a very scary scenario. Especially since it seems as PODUS is itching for a war, either with Iran or NK or both. This would be catastrophe for the US and possibly for some of our allies. Unfortunately, the Congress is only concerned with the tax bill right now.
The Congress needs to take back some of the power it seeded to Trump to avoid a war. I hope there are more sane minds in the Congress then in the Executives office. But I fear that with the republicans mind set and a new Secretary of State, Mike Pompaeo, that a war in inevitable.
This is a time in the US when the general public has little effect on the President especially since except for the rich and big business, we will have to adjust to a new life under the tax plan.
God help us and pray that the Government will do the right thing although I do not have much hope.
11
The word you want is "ceded."
8
You are rather optimistic in your perspective on national priorities. Yes, Congress might be focused on taxes, but to any observer, the most important issue in America, the single issue that has the attention of the public and all of the media, an issue that eclipses everything else on the agenda, is sexual misconduct.
1
Missiles are NOT fearsome! The reckless use of them by the crazies in this world, including us, is what is FEARSOME.
1
Guns don't kill people. People do.
We have been underestimating the capability of North Korea for long. For the necessity of the state, they have robbed banks using sophisticated cyber technology, printed perfect counterfeit dollar bills or abducted innocent citizens in South Korea and Japan for spy training. They have excellent history of the advanced civilization, which the Japanese learned in early days. They have surprised the Chinese and the Europeans with printing machine that Gutenberg may have been aghast. The problem is that leadership of North Korea is morally corrupt even though they declared "No first attack by their nuclear weapons". Trump is morally corrupt, but North Korean leadership is morally corrupt by the state level. It is very difficult to trust a country that lost pride and dignity.
3
North Korea's success in joining the "nuclear club" is perceived as a threat to the United States in direct proportion to the belief that Kim Jong-un is an unstable madman willing to do something no other leader of a nuclear power has ever done. It can be argued (and has been in this publication) that Kim is really more cunning than he is mad, that the race to become a nuclear power is a strategy designed most quickly to get the respect of (or create fear in) stronger regional and international powers, thus protecting the Kim dynasty.
In the early days of the Cold War, we had similar fears about the Soviet's nuclear intentions, and suffered from a similar lack of knowledge about who their leaders were and what they wanted. During the Cuban missile crisis, I wondered on a couple of nights whether I would wake up the next day.
But the world is still here. We need to play a similar long game with Kim. Continue to demonstrate resolve and continually remind him of the futility of mutually assured destruction. Be vigilant about military moves that might presage any attack. Exercise diplomacy where and when we can. Don't escalate, verbally or militarily, and provoke a runaway situation.
12
In other words, everything opposite of what Trumpy is doing.
1
Trump....we need some more tweets...like calling for a new election to replace you and your government immediately!!! And ask Obama to be the interim president!! and "Chuck and Nancy" to take over congress!!
12
Dear Howard64, What does the Constitution have to say about your plan to make the world great again?
1
Republicans think tax cuts to their donors are more important than impeachment before we have a nuclear WWIII. Deplorable.
13
Scary. And, as many of my conservative friends like to remind me, this is all due to the incompetence of Jimmy Carter and Barak Obama.
1
Appeasement will be every bit as effective as it was in 1930s Germany, and in 2017 the stakes are apocalyptic in scope. We can either accept the best solution might be the least horrible one, or permit North Korea to establish bullying as the gold standard for 21st-century diplomacy.
No. There is only one possible outcome in a world where every nation is armed with missiles tipped with thermonuclear warheads. Take Kim out - now.
5
As Hugh Brogan said in this book "The History of the United States", it's not that people don't learn lessons from the history; it's that people are marvelous at learning wrong lessons. Comparing North Korea looking for survival to Hitler looking for Aryan domination of the world is just that. If anything, It's Trump, with his white nationalism, that is much closer to Hitler and must be stopped now.
2
BobMeinetz, As I understand it, the Marines are looking for a few good men. I'd be happy to write a letter of recommendation for you.
2
Reply to BobMeinetz: Since you're advocating that we should "Take Kim out - now" and you live in Los Angeles, I assume that you're ready to relocate on very short notice. Any attack by Kim will certainly include a 'present' for your city.
2
Is Trump Russian or North Korean?
It's been seeming as though another nation has been helping North Korea for the last 18-24 months or so, on both missiles as well as on nuclear bombs. Earlier this year, if I'm remembering correctly, there were a couple of NYT articles where there was speculation that Russia/Putin was sharing plans from 1960s era Soviet missiles and warheads with North Korea. But, since then, there's been nothing in the news media about this. Would the NYT please dig into this further now? If North Korea is receiving technical assistance from Russia/Putin, or any other nation for that matter, it totally changes the situation.
35
Speed of advancement would indicate outside help. Either that, or the North Koreans have an average IQ of 200 and a budget of 2 trillion.
Although "super-large heavy warhead" isn't exactly a scientific term, it should be clear enough that Trump's bluster and "I'll out-crazy you" strategy was the wrong path. The only thing that might have worked was serious, sustained, and fully committed partnership among world leaders.
Trump took the exact opposite path.
And now, here we are. But I am no more worried about Kim Jung Un than I am about our own red-faced, white-knuckled commander in chief.
In the face of nuclear weapons in the hands of the unstable, we need look no further than the oval office.
16
Kim Jong-un and North Korea do not pose a threat to the US. Kim's real enemy are the North Korean people. He needs a realistic external enemy to enforce unity. His only aim is to continue the regime. Starting a war would be suicidal: becoming friendly with the the rest of the world and especially South Korea would be suicidal too, because the North Korean people would realise they had been duped. He walks a tightrope. He does not want to end up like Saddam (provoked a war with the west) or Ceaucescou (opened up too much).
It is difficult to know what to do however because eventually the regime will fall off the tightrope, most likely at a time when one leader dies to be replaced by his son (most likely). Kin's killing of his half brother was to ensure there was not a successor with "regime legitimacy" who the chinese could replace him with.
Very difficult to know what to do... but I would have thought that the best policy was simply for the west to ignore him completely. At some point, this will be China's acute problem
17
You are actually very wrong.. the N Korean people know their history. People still live and remember what the US and their bullies did to their country and their people and yes, it WAS attempted genocide.
They are NOT being duped or brainwashed, they have witnessed the aggressive military drills on their border over the past 60 years, so it isn't hard to convince them of their situation.
I have been to N Korea, the outside world is NOT hidden from them by the regime, that is just western propaganda, they actually have regular TV shows depicting life outside the borders, they have Singaporean TV shows and even some S Korean ones... They also are treated to what life is actually like in the USA where they are shown the craziness and the infatuation with material goods that exists in the west which they themselves shun for a happier existence.
Also, they are no more hungry that 3 billion other people on the planet who live in democracies and still can't feed their people properly. The UN World Food program declares.
2
"They also are treated to what life is actually like in the USA where they are shown the craziness and the infatuation with material goods that exists in the west which they themselves shun for a happier existence."
Wrong, Dave. The people of North Korea don't "shun" material goods. The NK government shuns it for them, along with food, electricity, human rights, a free media and many other things you and I take for granted elsewhere in the world. And no, they aren't very happy about. If they tell you otherwise, it's because the NK government also shuns any free thought - upon penalty of jail or worse - springing from the minds of its people.
4
North Korea, like many nuclear countries, have build their capability in order to ensure their country's survival. North Korea does not have to ensure they can hit the US to ensure deterrence; Japan will probably do in their calculation. Trump really doesn't have a realistic option but to double down on sanctions and other non-military options like cyber defense to take away North Korea revenue streams.
4
I'm pretty sure that NK is getting aid from Russia on this. Russia, I believe, wants the US to engage in a nuclear exchange with NK to degrade our standing in the world.
4
Obviously China and Russia are loosening the leash on their eastern junkyard dog by supplying it with technology to quickly develop new weapons. This keeps America off balance. The last thing they want is a destabilized North Korea or an "American puppet state" right on their two respective borders. Our only option is to do the same for our allies and do the once unthinkable of providing South Korea and Japan with nukes. Or we can get out of the Western Pacific altogether and retreat to Midway or even Kauai.
7
At least you're thinking outside the box.
1
It might be time to make it clear to the Russians that we know exactly what they're up to. And if we get in a nuclear exchange, Russia is not out of the picture. Russia's nuclear arsenal is decrepit and probably not that good. They're using NK to test their upgrades.
Game's up Putin. If NK is destroyed, so is Putin. We'll end Russia.
1
So no one has stopped his ability to make or buy hydrazine or make or buy rocket engines, So apparently the worlds leaders agree that the "little dictator" should be allowed to threaten his neighbors. So it goes...
2
I wonder how well Clinton, Obama and the two Bushes are sleeping tonight. Not well I hope.
2
Looks a lot like the old Soviet SS-11.
Guess tax reform won’t be such a big worry after all. Getting ready for the war is peace slogan.
3
Each day we fail to pre-emptively take out North Korea’s government brings us closer to the day when they will use this missle to destroy our cities. Not one single non-military effort shows any promise of preventing our destruction.
We have now come to the point where we must look our children in the eye, and articulate for them exactly what we plan to do to ensure their safety from this relentlessly developing, all destructive menace. Before our ten year olds reach high school, we will know whether we have given them a life of utter devastation, or one filled with the hope and promise we had dreamed and planned for them.
Too late is forever.
8
Diogenes: have you sighed up yet to be in the first wave of ground troops into Korea? Do you really think that starting a war with a country that has operational nuclear weapons is a sane idea?
6
The war with North Korea never ended. I was within three months of being shipped out to fight in it before the cease fire went into effect in 1953. We don’t know at this point how operational their nuclear strike capability is. What we do know is that each day it is becoming vastly more operational, at a pace no one had foreseen. Our military can take out their leadership, and neutralize their offensive capability including command and control, in less than 12 hours. Do the research, then do the math. Then decide what fate you want your family to endure.
We need to act more rapidly than we had ever imagined.
As I said above, and I meant it: “Too late is forever.”
Not mentioned here, but North Korea just switched within the year from liquid fueled boosters to solid fuel. Despite this massive change in technology, they've gone on to a pace of design innovation that US aerospace would be hard pressed to achieve.
My conclusion would be that some country is now helping NK, and given that the solid fuel engine units bear a similarity to one produced in the Ukraine (as noted in an earlier NYT article) the candidate would be Russia. Either as a state sponsor, or as a supplier of scientists (now under-employed in the former USSR).
41
Debunked here:
http://www.russianspaceweb.com/rd250.html
3
It's quite likely someone it's helping them, but it's also possible they had parallel development happening to let everyone think they were farther behind then they really were. It's possible the smaller launches were testing avionics, electronics, and communication capabilities. Russia could be helping them directly but I don't think Russia likes the idea of them being on their border with this capability either, the question is do they not like that as much as they do like that they're annoying the hell out of us and South Korea.
1
North Korean missile technology seems to advance in incredible leaps and bounds.
Suspiciously so.
36
Given that solid fuel engines are the way to go for ICBMs, you'd think they've been working on them for years. Using liquid fuel ones was a stop gap measure.
Right. So who is supplying them with all the necessary technology?
Terrifying. And, Donald Trump continues to insult North Korea with insults on Twitter. Trump is a danger to the world. Why is our country being held hostage by a madman?
34
Because Republicans and most of their voters are intellectually lazy authoritarian cowards.
Given that the west has always painted the North Koreans as backwoods technology, why is it that they are able to advance so fast in their missile technology?
Somehow I am quote suspicious of Russia and China in this matter because I am guessing that they are supporting the development helping in missile design and software development. They can benefit by the development because it allows them to try out new ideas without firing a missile themselves.
A thumb drive carried by a diplomat could contain all the plans and software for a new missile.
14
Counterproliferation is a major preoccupation of law enforcement, and this is precisely why. How did all this expertise end up in the hands of those parasite-infested losers in North Korea without many Western businessmen directly or indirectly aiding and abetting this? Iran's nuclear program was similar with its demand for aluminium tubes that were used for the centrifuges to develop the nuclear payloads...
2
Peter, your suspicions are sound. And the New York Times and others have in the past reported on where North Korea got the technical help and even the engines for other big and advanced missiles unveiled during the past year. They are from a missile factory in Ukraine. Specifically a missile factory in Soviet-conquered territory in Ukraine.
15
There’s a reason this new missile looks like an American Titan ICBM!
2
The only solution to the NK crisis that does not involve war is to negotiate a formal end to the Korean war and accept the NK as a nuclear power, then pursue a Cold War strategy to contain them. The Kim dynasty is mainly concerned with saving face to its subjects. It would be worth the "humbling" of the United States to save millions of lives. Unfortunately, we have the wrong president to pursue the path of peacemaking. As a result, I expect six to seven figures of casualties on the Korean peninsula and the further isolation of the United States as a global partner with anyone on anything. We'll be a backwater albeit a big one of corporate exploitation of the socioeconomic bottom three-quarters and a third world country if you're poor. Rather like Russia!
9
Be scared people, be very scared, otherwise we might begin to protest the fact that over half of our government’s discretionary spending goes to the military.
23
Maybe it needs to be more than half.
But, that's why we spend it - to use it...