In N.F.L., Defense Starts Comebacks, and Offense Stops Them

Oct 14, 2015 · 32 comments
Sharon (Southampton, NY)
I am the class secretary of Michael Schill's alma mater and always looking for news about classmates. I wonder what he'd think of the fact that I learned about his appointment in TMQ.

PS - why isn't there a way to comment from a mobile device? That's often how we read the Times these days...
RobbyStlrC'd (Santa Fe, NM)
From Gregg's article here (towards the bottom) : "(Use this tool to find any big college’s sports revenue and expenses.)"

What a wonderful link, Gregg. Tks so much. Yo da Man.

I checked out my undergraduate school (UT Austin). Very interesting. Football program does quite well. $113 M in revenue last year. $75 M profit. (By comparison, Ohio State -- N'tl Champs last year -- $66 M revenue, $43 M profit.)

But, the take-away point is this: Wen you lump all the athletic programs together at UT (men and women) -- only $15 M profit. Women's teams lose $16 M.

Makes me feel a bit better about the "obscene profits" from college football -- and how they're not paying the players what they deserve. Clearly, the majority of the money is used to "subsidize" the other (very worthwhile) UT sports teams -- like women's volleyball (which I luv -- best sport around, IMO).
Mark P (New Jersey)
"Presentation 51, Finlandia 21. Located in South Dakota and Minnesota, Presentation College fields a Competitive Dance and Cheer team. Only in America is there competitive dance!"

That's just false. Competitive dancing is not strictly American. Competitive ballroom dancing is probably bigger in Europe than it is here.
RobbyStlrC'd (Santa Fe, NM)
Great article. Tks. Esp liked the part about football "profit centers." [Grin]

But...I would take issue with the Defense as being the dominant factor in "comebacks" (or anything, for that matter).

There are (3) things really important in American football (professional -- or college, etc) -- 1). OL 2). OL 3) OL.

That's OFFENSIVE Line (OL). Everything goes through that. It holds back the DL, giving the QB time to spot receivers and the receivers time to get open. The OL also opens holes in the DL for the RB's to rush through.

When the OL -- the Offense -- is dominant, they "defeat" the DL (and thus the Defense). The Offensive team scores. They win. Q.E.D.

[Assuredly, an oversimplification here -- but true, in general, methinks.]
G. Malone (Chicago)
Small college football
Plastic-suited warriors.
Gladiators, too!
T. Wiley (Chicago)
The Booth Gods Chortled paragraph is the reason why Gregg Easterbrook is no longer at ESPN and here instead. Why would ESPN pay Gregg to pan it's announcers and it's NFL management lords?

The question of why every screen play is not an ineligible downfield lineman penalty is something I've asked forever with no discernible answer By design the linemen are supposed to be in front of the receiver before the pass is attempted.
Steve Estes (UWS)
Can't say I'm very impressed with your 4th-down bot, Gregg, given that it thinks it to be a *toss-up* in win expectation between the Cowboys' choice to kick a FG on 4th-and-2 from the NE 5, rather than go for it - as you pointedly (and correctly) maintained. Mathematically, the difference between 3% and 4% odds of victory may be small, but psychologically for the players, cutting the deficit to 20-10 with time left to come back may have had an outsize impact on those tiny odds.

Maybe you need a Bill Belichick Bot to compute clock-management and other game tactical decisions. It could even occasionally malfunction and tell you to go ask Mona Lisa Vito or something.
Ilya (Irkutsk)
Very disappointing to see supposedly smart guy TMQ swallowing the kool-aid on college programs making "profits." If that's true, why are they still charging student fees to cover their costs? Don't fall for the phony accounting. Big Time college sports is the ultimate scam, passing off all the costs onto students and taxpayers and keeping all the income.
DWJ (Shelton, WA)
DON'T PUNT! Two items I'd be curious for Gregg's take on: he often states good teams want to run more plays; that seems to contradict with his desire that a good coach will defer the kickoff if they win the coin toss. I'd be curious to see the stats on the number of plays run, taking possession v. deferring. As for parity, there isn't any in the NFL. I refer all to the recent fivethirtyeight article covering the math proving that there isn't any, and hasn't been for a long time due.
John (Calgary, AB)
Deferring is, technically, the only way to possibly receive both kickoffs, and therefore increase your number of plays. When you defer your choice to kick/receive to the second half, the other team now has the choice of kicking/receiving the first half. They could, if so inclined, choose to receive if they think that is the strategically correct move (I would question it, but nothing is stopping them). Then, you would be able to choose to receive the second half kick as well. Conversely, you could kick both halves as well - if you get to the second half and some drastic weather change occurred it might seem more important to a coach to ensure they have the proper wind for the fourth quarter.

Otherwise, in a normal situation, and I can't think of any instance yet where this has not occurred, all teams receive an equal number of kickoffs - one each half - so the number of plays is not impacted.
G.P. (Kingston, Ontario)
What I take away from the up coming Indie-New England game. Indie put your best three line stuffers on the defensive line. After them your best seven athletes between the line of scrimmage and fifteen yard backs to take away the quick slants. And God help the free safety as the last line of defense. He better know angles and run as fast as Bolt.
MB (New Jersey)
Great column with football insights and more. Mostly agree with the pie chart - but I think February (or late Feb) is the really longest month of the year!
Bill Cuttitta (Washington DC)
Speaking of creep, I think I see TMQ Creep - as it expands and returns to its' full-length glory. For this I am thankful.

I am long on record of supporting the DON'T PUNT philosophy espoused by TMQ and others, and was barking at my TV several times on Sunday exactly that sentiment. To their detriment, Caldwell and Garrett didn't hear me (but my wife and daughter sure did).

The Football Gods clearly loved that Coach Tomlin learned from last week and went for the win by giving the ball to Mr Bell. Some head coaches *can* learn.
Chris (New York)
Gregg - You seem to be under the mistaken impression that the 49ers are the only team in the league without a stadium in their home city. You refer to them as Santa Clara, yet a few paragraphs later you mistakenly call the team that plays in Arlington the "Dallas Cowboys." In fact many teams do not play in their home cities and some - this is really going to blow your mind - don't even have a stadium in their home STATE.

I appreciate that you are a stickler for detail who would never refer to a team that played in Santa Clara as "San Francisco." Therefore I look forward to seeing names like Orchard Park, Landover, East Rutherford, and Miami Gardens used in your future columns.

Regards,
A die-hard Santa Clara fan
Lucas (Chicago)
You must be fairly new to TMQ. He calls the Giants and Jets Jersey/A and Jersey/B, and he refers to the Redskins in the article as the "Potomac Drainage Basin Indigenous Persons".
Civil (Budapest)
Hi,
There are team nicknames used in TMQ for a long time, like Jersey/A, Jersey/B (B referring to the Jets), South Florida Dolphins, Potomac Drainage Basin. Never have seen mentioning Buffalo nicknames though.
Jeremy (Rochester, NY)
He actually doesn't call them the Orchard Park Bills. He explained it in one of his columns last year, basing the name on distance from the city; Orchard Park being ~10 miles from Buffalo & Santa Clara being ~40 miles from San Fran. Please note the distance are based on my memory and should not be taken as TMQ quotes. =D
Jim (California)
My Gawd DON'T PUNT!

Great collection - then it's true there is a connection between collegiate football and money. Hmm thanks.
Dan (Atlanta)
Not only did the Cowboys kick the field goal from the NE 5, Phil Simms and Jim Nantz praised the decision praised the decision stating, "you have to get something to show for that long drive." How about getting a touchdown instead of going into the 4th quarter down by 14 against one of he best 4th quarter teams in the NFL.

I told my 6-year old son who was watching the game with me to get a notebook and write "game over" as boom went the kick.
John (Calgary, AB)
DON'T PUNT. The expression I hate most is "Punt here and let the defense make a play." Why don't you go for it, and if you fail ask your defense to make a play?

Offenses score, defenses, for the most part, do not. When you are trailing you need your offense to make a play.

If you are on offense, and you have the ball, then one of two things have happened.

1. The other team just scored, making your dependency on the defense to make a play questionable.
OR
2. The defense already made a play and gave you the ball...so, why aren't you taking advantage of it?

Stop punting on the other side of the field. Stop punting on fourth and on past your own 40. Stop kicking field goals on fourth and goal on the two yard line or less.

And go for two every single time.

Stat of the week - Mariota, who was hailed the second coming after his week one win, is now 0-3 against teams that didn't finish last place overall in 2014.
Johnnygull (Boston)
Great column. Rapidly becoming my favorite football column. Funny, opinionated and insightful. Thanks.
Roger Sperberg (Montclair, NJ)
Is U.V.A. An acronym or a a noncronym? What does that "A" stand for? Since it has a period after it, it must represent _something_.
Milkman Dan (Virginia)
DON'T PUNT.

I wonder if Gregg has noticed the correlation between living-memory former presidents' military service (esp. the Navy), and ships named for them. Bill Clinton, while popular to this day, was less so amongst servicemembers. He never really shook off the "draft dodger" label, and his support for the military was perceived by some as somewhat less than complete, as I recall.

This correlation seems to hold less strongly as time passes. We may yet see a U.S.S. Bill Clinton, though he may have to wait a bit longer than our veteran presidents.
Robert (Arizona)
Love it! Love it! Love it! How many people can you insult in so many intriguing ways? Got to be a record here. Give the man a Pulitzer for non-punting poetic punditry!

Really glad you mentioned all those small colleges that play the game because it's fun and the girls really like the jocks. The off-handed crack about the NAIA fails to note that their member schools never leave their state with a $31M bill.

As for don't punt, well come on down here to rural Arizona where we play 8-man ball on an 11-man field. Lots of room out there. I'm not going to say that some teams don't have anyone who can punt, but I regularly see teams 4th and four on their own 35 going for it - and often making it. Also, I'd say on-side kickoffs are 50-50 and nobody, I mean, nobody tries to kick a PAT. It's a 2-yard push, and I've seen games decided by their success or failure. It gets wild down here on the hot desert nights.
Jaret (Arizona)
In the desert Southwest, the calendar is all screwed up. While the holidays do indeed cause excitement, it is also this time of year that it becomes tolerable to be outside again. January through March are easily the best months of the year in terms of weather in the Valley of the Sun. June through September are the longest months of the year, and take up more than half of the year-long pie chart. And sweaters are almost never necessary, which is tragic for those of us who do look better in an extra layer of thick clothing.
T Montoya (Denver)
Oakland should have gone for it on fourth? If they fail Denver burns off a large chunk of the remaining six minutes and puts in a relatively easy field goal, taking it from a touchdown-and-field-goal-to-win to two-touchdowns-to-win.
Much better for Oakland to kick away and hope for another three-and-out.
Tim (Stuart,FL)
DON'T PUNT.

What a column. The Princess Bride, a naming guide to nuclear submarines, insight into the various strata of college football, references to the glory of the sweater - as well as incisive and instructional commentary on professional football. My favorite column of the week.
Tani (Stockholm)
Oh, and DON'T PUNT! (you may add this to my previous entry)
Steve (Arizona)
Glad to see the column has expanded a bit in scope. When it's as long and varied as the ESPN columns once were, we'll have reached peak TMQ.

Appreciate the new author picture, BTW. The old one was, well, old.

Finally, I'm sure this has something to do with New York Times writing guide by-laws, but can we get some acronyms without periods? Those things are visually distracting.

Loved the column overall, great analysis.
daddybcat (East of Eden)
The picture was the first thing I noticed.

I went back in the mists of time (to the 9/15/15 TMQ) where I wrote this: "Why did the NYT use that ancient stock photo? Great job by the newspaper of record. No doubt Gregg will have correction fodder for them when they change it for a more recent shot." In the finest revisionist fashion, the NYT now has the new picture on that column as well. I demand a TMQ investigation!
Tani (Stockholm)
Thanks for allowing Greg to add some non-football related stuff, NYT! Still hoping for some regular items to return, though, like Cosmic Thoughts or Christmas Creep.

By the way, I got sort of a feeling you missed one step for an important step to come back against 'Hawks: Seattle players have to quit playing in the fourth quarter. So far, they have reliably done so. Hey, Seahawks players, you are responsible for the worst 4th quarters this season!
daddybcat (East of Eden)
Longtime readers will remember that Gregg ended Christmas Creep quite awhile ago, stating that it is now ubiquitous to see Christmas decorations in October. The Unified Theory of Creep, however, was still going strong last season. I, too, would appreciate its return.